diff --git a/data/old/astralcodexten-questions.json b/data/old/astralcodexten-questions.json deleted file mode 100644 index cee9e5e..0000000 --- a/data/old/astralcodexten-questions.json +++ /dev/null @@ -1,2555 +0,0 @@ -[ - { - "title": "Data processing errors are between 5% and 100% as important and methodological problems when explaining bad studies", - "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/3c56c70a-c78c-43c6-84ef-6cbd173cc748", - "platform": "AstralCodexTen", - "description": "...by the end of 2021", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.050000000000000044, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.173Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 4, - "stars": 3 - } - }, - { - "title": "Fraud is between >1% and 5% as important as methodological problems when explaining bad studies", - "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/81343104-09c2-4e18-b751-db0d2fccd35a", - 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"type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43999999999999995, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 10, - "stars": 3 - } - }, - { - "title": "Prospera has at least 1000 residents", - "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/a14db0ca-fd63-4c87-a097-1e76de540f96", - "platform": "AstralCodexTen", - "description": "...by the end of 2021", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 5.5, - "stars": 3 - } - }, - { - "title": "Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 50 years) in China/Taiwan conflict", - "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/950e80ff-3b9e-4a71-8df9-16e06b8a34a3", - "platform": "AstralCodexTen", - "description": "...by the end of 2021", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.045, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.955, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.175Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 5, - "stars": 3 - } - }, - { - "title": "Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 10 years) in Israel/Palestine conflict", - "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/9d40c0d0-c9fa-479a-95ec-c1c525230fa5", - "platform": "AstralCodexTen", - "description": "...by the end of 2021", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.075, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.925, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.175Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 3, - "stars": 3 - } - }, - { - "title": "Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine war", - "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/109b7b87-543d-4df7-8137-f58e2aaea0e7", - "platform": "AstralCodexTen", - "description": "...by the end of 2021", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.255, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.745, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.175Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 3, - "stars": 3 - } - }, - { - "title": "Tokyo Olympics happen on schedule", - "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/091ba247-070e-4523-be8d-2f53e83e11c4", - "platform": "AstralCodexTen", - "description": "...by the end of 2021", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.175Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 4, - "stars": 3 - } - }, - { - "title": "Trump is allowed back on Twitter", - "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/6e62aaf4-c4c9-4b21-a4c1-23b2698ea30f", - "platform": "AstralCodexTen", - "description": "...by the end of 2021", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.085, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.915, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.175Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 3, - "stars": 3 - } - }, - { - "title": "Significant capital gains tax hike (above 30% for highest bracket)", - "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/ef192cb7-9d16-496a-99ca-acac2769b896", - "platform": "AstralCodexTen", - "description": "...by the end of 2021", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.215, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.785, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.175Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 3, - "stars": 3 - } - }, - { - "title": "At least $250 million in damage from BLM protests this year", - "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/9f13515d-f7cf-4747-9353-46fd2f3d7d31", - "platform": "AstralCodexTen", - "description": "...by the end of 2021", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.175Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 3, - "stars": 3 - } - }, - { - "title": "Newsom recalled as CA governor", - "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/33dd0e76-96ef-4404-9fc5-c653e57b35b5", - "platform": "AstralCodexTen", - "description": "...by the end of 2021", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.215, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.785, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.175Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 7, - "stars": 3 - } - }, - { - "title": "Yang is New York mayor", - "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/5a8c9c64-517a-4c12-bea3-2fa72ea44307", - "platform": "AstralCodexTen", - "description": "...by the end of 2021", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.625, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.375, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.175Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 3, - "stars": 3 - } - }, - { - "title": "Court packing is clearly going to happen (new justices don't have to be appointed by end of year)", - "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/68a7b974-31d6-4277-81f3-94c22dd8619f", - "platform": "AstralCodexTen", - "description": "...by the end of 2021", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.055, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.945, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.175Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 3, - "stars": 3 - } - }, - { - "title": "Biden approval rating (as per 538) is greater than 50%", - "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/a3ea3584-59b9-44e9-a936-be8065138a17", - "platform": "AstralCodexTen", - "description": "...by the end of 2021", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.58, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.42000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.175Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 3, - "stars": 3 - } - } -] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/old/betfair-questions.json b/data/old/betfair-questions.json deleted file mode 100644 index 0637a08..0000000 --- a/data/old/betfair-questions.json +++ /dev/null @@ -1 +0,0 @@ -[] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/old/csetforetell-questions.json b/data/old/csetforetell-questions.json deleted file mode 100644 index 1614297..0000000 --- a/data/old/csetforetell-questions.json +++ /dev/null @@ -1,900 +0,0 @@ -[ - { - "title": "Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/125-will-the-chinese-people-s-liberation-army-pla-seize-control-of-any-taiwanese-occupied-features-in-the-south-china-sea-before-july-1-2021", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Context. Tensions between Taiwan and China have been particularly high in 2020 (CFR, BBC). China had previously aimed for peaceful reunification with Taiwan. In May 2020, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang dropped the term “peaceful” from a speech, apparently reflecting shifting policies on the island (Reuters). Throughout 2020, China has stepped up activities in the East and South China Sea (Al Jazeera, IISS) with some media reporting of an imminent invasion of Taiwan (Express, Forbes). In the Annual Report to Congress, the the Office of the Secretary of Defence state that an invasion of Taiwan would be a “significant political and military risk” but “China could launch an invasion of small Taiwan-occupied islands in the South China Sea such as Pratas or Itu Aba” (Department of Defense). In August 2020, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted military exercises off the Pratas islands to “simulate seizing the Pratas Islands” (Taipei Times). Foreign Policy assessed an invasion of Taiwan by China was unlikely, while The Diplomat suggests China’s military activity represents the end state of a failed strategy, not an imminent attack. Taiwan’s current features include the Pratas Islands and Itu Aba Island (CSIS). The control of a feature in the South China Sea would indicate a serious escalation within the region which will be of interest to the international community. The July 1 2021 represents the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Resolution details. The outcome of this question will be determined by reputable media reporting or official statements. Seizing would involve an invasion, conquest, and control of a feature by Chinese military forces, lasting more than 24 hours. The question will resolve once control has been held for 24 hours, irrespective of how long that control is maintained after that period. ***\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:14.639Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "85", - "numforecasters": "73", - "stars": 2 - } - }, - { - "title": "Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/126-will-china-sign-an-official-agreement-on-establishing-a-future-military-base-in-the-pacific-ocean-before-december-31-2021", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Context. Chinese military basing in the Pacific has been an acute concern for US, Australian and New Zealand military planners for some time. China has made political and economic inroads into the Pacific islands for years and recent ‘covid diplomacy’ has generated new political capital (Eurasian Times). China came close in 2018 as it discussed co-developing four major ports and eventually a military base in Papua New Guinea, including at Lombrum Naval Base on Manus Island. There was also speculation of a proposed military base on Vanuatu (Reuters), which China denied (Guardian).The signing of an official agreement between one of more Pacific nations would be seen as a significant development in this area, which would be of interest to many teams.Resolution details. The outcome of this question will be determined on any official announcement or reputable media reporting that an agreement has been reached to establish a Chinese military base in the Pacific Ocean.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:17.431Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "52", - "numforecasters": "46", - "stars": 2 - } - }, - { - "title": "What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/123-what-percentage-of-software-engineer-job-postings-between-july-1-and-september-30-2021-inclusive-will-allow-for-remote-work", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3. You can view those forecasts here. A version of the question issued for 2021 Q1 was voided due to an error in the reported historical data. You can view the voided question here.Context. COVID-19 is reshaping the global economy by leading to an increase in jobs that can be performed remotely. A remote tech industry would have different properties than a non-remote tech industry. Most significantly, location would be a less of a constraint on where people work and who companies hire. For more on this metric, see the related metric analysis: \"Tech Jobs Are Going Remote; UK Leads the Way.\"Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Burning Glass data available as of October 1, 2021. It includes all countries for which Burning Glass has data: the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore.The data for 2021 Q1 includes data only through March 9. We will update the graph to reflect the final three weeks of 2021 Q1 in early April. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 5.5%", - "probability": 0.11320000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%", - "probability": 0.1975, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2779, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1925, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 12%", - "probability": 0.2189, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:20.424Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "97", - "numforecasters": "82", - "stars": 2 - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/122-will-hu-chunhua-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Xi Jinping, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and top-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. But given the opaque nature of intra-Party negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from the current Politburo.Hu Chunhua has been seen for many years as a rising star in Chinese politics. He serves on the Politburo as one of four Vice Premiers of the State Council, the administrative leadership group of the Chinese central government. He is the youngest Politburo member (he will turn 59 in 2022) and is the only Vice Premier not due to retire in 2022. The current Premier (and number-two ranked PBSC member), Li Keqiang, is constitutionally barred from serving another term, and, since the late 1980s, a new Premier has always been selected from among the serving Vice Premiers. Hu could secure a place on the next PBSC as the next Premier. But Xi’s personalized power and preference for elevating political allies has cast doubt on the persistence of previous norms. Hu is not seen as close to Xi, and his political rise is linked to the once-powerful but now-weakened Communist Youth League faction. Xi may want to block Hu’s ascension to the PBSC or be accepting of Hu taking a PBSC position below that of Premier. If Hu became Premier, it could be a signal that Xi faces intra-Party checks on his power.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.71, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.29, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:23.231Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "26", - "numforecasters": "23", - "stars": 2 - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/120-will-li-keqiang-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Li Keqiang has been the second-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and has served as Premier of the State Council since March 2013. He is ranked behind paramount leader Xi Jinping, who serves as the Party’s General Secretary and is President of China and Chairman of the Central Military Commission.During the 1990s and 2000s, Li and Xi were both rising stars. Xi was from an elite political family and gained the favor of former leader Jiang Zemin, while Li’s base was the now-weakened Communist Youth League that nurtured Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao. Xi proved more popular with Party elites but factional balancing within the Party saw Li win the number-two position. Li is constitutionally barred from serving another five-year term as Premier. But he will only be 67 years old in 2022, and so will fall within the customary upper age bound of 67 for appointment to a new PBSC term. Given that it’s uncommon for such a senior leader to retire early, it's possible that Li will remain on the PBSC but take a different role.Xi is expected to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. If Li retires, it will be another sign of Xi’s consolidation of personalized political power, which has come at the expense of other factional networks within the Party. If Li remains on the PBSC, it could be a sign that other power groupings exist that are influential enough to at least require some degree of placation by Xi, or that Xi still feels at least partially constrained by factional norms.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:25.848Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "23", - "numforecasters": "19", - "stars": 2 - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/121-will-chen-min-er-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Xi Jinping, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and top-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. But given the opaque nature of intra-Party negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from the current Politburo.Chen Min’er is tipped by some analysts as a major figure in the next generation of Chinese political leaders. He turns 62 in 2022 and so will be young enough to serve two PBSC terms under prevailing norms. He sits on the Politburo as Party Secretary of Chongqing, a position that was a launching pad for many former PBSC leaders. And he is seen as a protégé of Xi (who often promotes people he knows personally), having worked as director of the provincial propaganda department when Xi was Zhejiang Party Secretary from 2002-2007. But Chen will have to compete with other hopefuls and avoid any impression that he poses a threat to Xi’s authority.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.82, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:28.960Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "20", - "numforecasters": "18", - "stars": 2 - } - }, - { - "title": "How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the \"Big 5\" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/118-how-many-new-h-1b-visa-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fiscal-year-2022", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. The mean crowd forecast for that question is 8,122. You can view those forecasts here.Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants. It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on \"initial approvals\" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2021. The fiscal year is October 1 through September 30. The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The \"Big 5\" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 7,500", - "probability": 0.0418, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1286, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500", - "probability": 0.3054, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500", - "probability": 0.30820000000000003, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 13,500", - "probability": 0.2161, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:31.766Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "49", - "numforecasters": "40", - "stars": 2 - } - }, - { - "title": "How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/116-how-many-postings-for-u-s-jobs-requiring-machine-learning-skills-will-be-published-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3 and 2021 Q1. You can view those forecasts here and here. For 2020 Q3, the answer was 39,364 and the median crowd forecast was 37,271. We will add the resolution for the 2021 Q1 question as soon as the data is available. Context. Job postings reflect the priorities and expectations of employers. They provide hints about future research and development. Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Burning Glass Technologies. The date of a job posting is the date Burning Glass retrieves the data. The question resolves when CSET receives Burning Glass data through December 31, 2021. Through February 2021, 34,663 U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills were posted, which puts the first half of 2021 on pace for 106,328 job postings. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 70,000", - "probability": 0.1252, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.33140000000000003, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000", - "probability": 0.3232, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000", - "probability": 0.16579999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 130,000", - "probability": 0.054400000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:34.995Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "89", - "numforecasters": "73", - "stars": 2 - } - }, - { - "title": "What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/117-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2022", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 and 2021. The crowd's mean forecast for 2020 was $506 billion, and the correct answer was $560.1 billion. The crowd's mean forecast for 2021 is $524 billion. You can view those forecasts here and here. Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than $400 billion", - "probability": 0.0729, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.16760000000000003, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion", - "probability": 0.5379999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion", - "probability": 0.2029, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than $775 billion", - "probability": 0.018600000000000002, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:38.073Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "36", - "numforecasters": "30", - "stars": 2 - } - }, - { - "title": "What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/114-what-will-the-combined-revenue-of-alphabet-amazon-apple-facebook-and-microsoft-be-in-the-second-half-of-2021", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Previous version. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The median forecast for the first half of 2021 was $557 billion. Although that question has not yet resolved, based on data for the second half of 2020 -- $631 billion -- big tech revenue appears to be increasing ahead of the crowd's predictions. You can view those forecasts here.Context. Even as the economic crisis deepened, large tech companies have have demonstrated resilience, beating Wall Street Analysts’ expectations. Data and Resolution Details. This question resolves based on the 10-Q filings of Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., and Microsoft Inc. It resolves when these companies’ 10-Q filings for the fourth quarter of 2021 are publicly available. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than $470 billion", - "probability": 0.050199999999999995, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.133, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion", - "probability": 0.245, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion", - "probability": 0.31420000000000003, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than $680 billion", - "probability": 0.2576, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:49:59.269Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "84", - "numforecasters": "72", - "stars": 2 - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The final crowd forecast was 11%. The probability generally declined during the period the question was open. You can view that question and the results here. A variation on this question was also issued for Summer 2020. You can view that question and the results here. Context. The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. \"Fires upon\" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming.***This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.81, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:02.644Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "144", - "numforecasters": "109", - "stars": 3 - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/115-will-xi-jingping-be-general-secretary-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party will elect a new 370-member Central Committee at its next quinquennial National Congress, likely in October or November 2022. Immediately after this Party Congress, the new 20th Central Committee will hold a plenary meeting that selects the Party’s General Secretary for the incoming five-year term.The General Secretary chairs the Central Committee’s top 25-member Politburo and the Politburo’s elite seven-member Standing Committee. Since the early 1990s, the General Secretary has concurrently served as President of the People’s Republic of China and Chairperson of the Central Military Commission. The General Secretary is thus the “paramount leader” of the three sectors of regime power: the Party, the State, and the People’s Liberation Army.Xi Jinping became General Secretary after the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and was reselected for a second term at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. When Xi began his tenure the expectation both within the Party and among domestic and international observes of China was that he would follow the succession norm set by his predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin of stepping down as leader after serving two full five-year terms.But since coming to power, Xi has reversed the Party’s previous trend toward “collective leadership” and become the powerful “core leader” of a far more personalized political set-up. Xi has crippled rival power centers in the Party, elevated close associates to key leadership positions, centralized policymaking authority in “leading small groups” that he chairs, and asserted unparalleled authority over the armed forces and security services. These developments have led many observers to argue that Xi will secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary at the 20th Party Congress. In March 2018, China’s legislature amended the State Constitution to delete a two-term limit for Presidents of the People’s Republic, removing the only formal barrier to Xi serving as paramount leader indefinitely.Other analysts warn that Xi’s position is more precarious because of the backlash generated by policies that target rival elites, suppress civil society, and potentially slow China’s growth. Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would also have to win exemption from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. The next General Secretary should be announced in the communique of the First Plenary Meeting of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, likely in October or November 2022.***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.89, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:04.965Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "195", - "numforecasters": "135", - "stars": 3 - } - }, - { - "title": "How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/111-how-much-funding-will-private-u-s-tech-companies-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is \"private\" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: \"Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?\"\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than $40 billion", - "probability": 0.0528, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2522, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion", - "probability": 0.4056, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion", - "probability": 0.21719999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than $100 billion", - "probability": 0.0722, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:08.571Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "57", - "numforecasters": "46", - "stars": 2 - } - }, - { - "title": "How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/110-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: \"Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?\"\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than $13 billion", - "probability": 0.0332, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1223, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion", - "probability": 0.42450000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion", - "probability": 0.32030000000000003, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than $25 billion", - "probability": 0.09970000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:11.711Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "59", - "numforecasters": "45", - "stars": 2 - } - }, - { - "title": "What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued conditional on Trump not being convicted. A sister question was conditioned on Trump being convicted. After Trump was not convicted, we voided the sister question and removed the condition from this question. As of the Senate's vote on conviction, the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump's conviction was 0.1244; the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump not being convicted -- this question -- was 0.0718. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for \"incitement of insurrection,\" setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a \"Trump Effect\" in which \"the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump.\" \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than -0.25", - "probability": 0.19329999999999997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive", - "probability": 0.3189, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25", - "probability": 0.29960000000000003, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5", - "probability": 0.1467, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 0.5", - "probability": 0.0414, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:15.073Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "150", - "numforecasters": "111", - "stars": 3 - } - }, - { - "title": "How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an \"AI contract\" if BGOV classified it in the \"Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning\" market. It's a \"research\" contract if it has a \"Research and Development\" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than $200 million", - "probability": 0.0506, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.19329999999999997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million", - "probability": 0.35350000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million", - "probability": 0.254, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than $650 million", - "probability": 0.14859999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:17.888Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "115", - "numforecasters": "92", - "stars": 3 - } - }, - { - "title": "How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an \"AI grant\" if the abstract mentions either \"artificial intelligence\" or \"machine learning.\" The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than $30 million", - "probability": 0.0492, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.3036, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million", - "probability": 0.3403, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million", - "probability": 0.2051, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than $150 million", - "probability": 0.1018, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:20.697Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "144", - "numforecasters": "114", - "stars": 3 - } - }, - { - "title": "How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an \"AI\" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 26,000", - "probability": 0.031, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.0981, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000", - "probability": 0.2158, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000", - "probability": 0.3145, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 32,000", - "probability": 0.3406, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:23.822Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "73", - "numforecasters": "45", - "stars": 2 - } - }, - { - "title": "How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, \"Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol.\"The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a \"bargaining unit\" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, \"workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract.\" Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. ***\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 800", - "probability": 0.1282, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 800 and 4,000", - "probability": 0.4506, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000", - "probability": 0.2904, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000", - "probability": 0.1013, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 100,000", - "probability": 0.0296, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:27.167Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "157", - "numforecasters": "103", - "stars": 3 - } - }, - { - "title": "What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term \"artificial intelligence\"; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms \"privacy\" and \"security.\" The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 0.45%", - "probability": 0.0484, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1732, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%", - "probability": 0.2768, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%", - "probability": 0.2242, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 1.2%", - "probability": 0.2774, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:37.154Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "67", - "numforecasters": "55", - "stars": 2 - } - }, - { - "title": "Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that \"China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones.\"The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.***\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.57, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:40.350Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "153", - "numforecasters": "90", - "stars": 3 - } - }, - { - "title": "What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. The top five SME companies globally are: United States: Applied Materials; Lam Research; KLA Japan: Tokyo Electron Netherlands: ASML Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the companies' quarterly and annual public filings through the quarter ending December 31, 2021. At that date, we expect to have data for all five companies through all of 2021 with the exception that we'll have data for KLA only through June 30, 2020. As of December 3, 2020, the figure for 2020 in the graph below includes the following: Lam Research through September 30, 2020; Applied Materials through September 30, 2020; KLA through June 30, 2020; and Tokyo Electron through September 30, 2020. We will supplement the graph with additional 2020 data as it becomes available. In particular, ASML data for all of 2020 will be added after ASML submits its annual financial report covering the period through December 31, 2020.The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 20%", - "probability": 0.08800000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 20% and 25%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1698, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%", - "probability": 0.3705, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%", - "probability": 0.25780000000000003, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 35%", - "probability": 0.1139, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:43.474Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "75", - "numforecasters": "59", - "stars": 2 - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the \"lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy.\" In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly \"pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration.\" The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. ***\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.56, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:46.450Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "365", - "numforecasters": "198", - "stars": 3 - } - }, - { - "title": "When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer \"after November 17, 2021.\" In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. ***\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Before February 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.0223, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive", - "probability": 0.0738, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.21559999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "After November 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.6883, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:49.230Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "249", - "numforecasters": "137", - "stars": 3 - } - }, - { - "title": "What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 59%", - "probability": 0.12369999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 59% and 66%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1791, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%", - "probability": 0.2658, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%", - "probability": 0.2939, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 80%", - "probability": 0.1376, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:52.528Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "239", - "numforecasters": "169", - "stars": 3 - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:55.172Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "201", - "numforecasters": "133", - "stars": 3 - } - }, - { - "title": "What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021", - "platform": "CSET-foretell", - "description": "Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term \"artificial intelligence\" of \"machine learning\"; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either \"ethics,\" \"bias,\" fairness,\" or any variant of those terms. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 1.5%", - "probability": 0.067, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1356, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%", - "probability": 0.2113, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%", - "probability": 0.2891, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 6%", - "probability": 0.29710000000000003, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:58.224Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "222", - "numforecasters": "140", - "stars": 3 - } - } -] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/old/elicit-output.txt b/data/old/elicit-output.txt deleted file mode 100644 index e33a27c..0000000 --- a/data/old/elicit-output.txt +++ /dev/null @@ -1,15930 +0,0 @@ -Title: Some title -URL: someurl.com -Platform: some platform -Binary question?: true -Percentage: X%/none -Description: Some long description which may contain html -# Forecasts: 15 -Stars: ★★☆☆☆ - -Title: Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2050%20prediction%20questions%20embedded%20in%20LessWrong%20posts%20and%20comments%20this%20month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 56.39% -Description: -# Forecasts: 337 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Will more than 50 people predict on this post? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 82.03% -Description: -# Forecasts: 230 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 36.85% -Description: -# Forecasts: 158 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20without%20additional%20intervention%20from%20the%20existing%20AI%20Alignment%20research%20community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 52.70% -Description: -# Forecasts: 137 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20arms%20race%20dynamic%20in%20the%20lead-up%20to%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 75.52% -Description: -# Forecasts: 113 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new%20English%20Strain%20is%20at%20least%2050%%20more%20infectious%20than%20the%20currently%20dominant%20American%20strain%20of%20Covid-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 63.37% -Description: -# Forecasts: 211 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20single%20AGI%20or%20AGI%20project%20achieve%20a%20decisive%20strategic%20advantage?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 61.63% -Description: -# Forecasts: 115 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: How vivid is your visual imagination? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 50.68% -Description: -# Forecasts: 119 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 33.50% -Description: -# Forecasts: 110 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 42.70% -Description: -# Forecasts: 107 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20we%20build%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 11.79% -Description: -# Forecasts: 100 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: How vivid is your sound imagination? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20sound%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 61.17% -Description: -# Forecasts: 106 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20another%20AI%20Winter%20(a%20period%20commonly%20referred%20to%20as%20such)%20before%20we%20develop%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 28.63% -Description: -# Forecasts: 95 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%201-3%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 43.12% -Description: -# Forecasts: 112 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20an%20additional%20distinct%20large%20wave%20of%20Covid-19%20infections%20in%20the%20United%20States%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 58.18% -Description: -# Forecasts: 158 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: How vivid is your taste imagination? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20taste%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 25.73% -Description: -# Forecasts: 84 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: How vivid is your smell imagination? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20smell%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 25.41% -Description: -# Forecasts: 82 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20need%20>%203%20breakthroughs%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning%20to%20get%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 25.38% -Description: -# Forecasts: 84 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: How frequently do you think in words? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 78.13% -Description: -# Forecasts: 86 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Do you have a type of Synaesthesia? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 19.76% -Description: -# Forecasts: 87 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Do you have an internal monologue? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 82.28% -Description: -# Forecasts: 80 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: How vivid is your touch imagination? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 36.13% -Description: -# Forecasts: 79 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: How good is your memory? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 52.65% -Description: -# Forecasts: 78 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: How much control do you have over your mind? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20much%20control%20do%20you%20have%20over%20your%20mind?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 45.59% -Description: -# Forecasts: 76 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 42.76% -Description: -# Forecasts: 85 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Trump will win a second term -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20win%20a%20second%20term&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 46.20% -Description: -# Forecasts: 74 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 24.51% -Description: -# Forecasts: 75 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 31.56% -Description: -# Forecasts: 66 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Will the post "Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong" get more than 80 karma by December 1st? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20"Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong"%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 89.52% -Description: -# Forecasts: 83 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Having%20a%20button/prompt%20for%20Elicit%20on%20LW%20would%20increase%20usage%20by%20at%20least%205x&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 60.22% -Description: -# Forecasts: 41 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025%20bitcoin%20will%20no%20longer%20be%20the%20highest%20traded%20cryptocurrency.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 55.49% -Description: -# Forecasts: 37 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity%20will%20not%20occur%20by%20the%20year%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 68.71% -Description: -# Forecasts: 42 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 61.12% -Description: -# Forecasts: 42 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025,%20most%20of%20Russia%20will%20become%20part%20of%20the%20United%20States,%20or%20the%20reverse,%20or%20they%20will%20in%20some%20other%20manner%20become%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state,%20or%20part%20of%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 0.79% -Description: -# Forecasts: 34 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: The Pope will be assassinated. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope%20will%20be%20assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 3.03% -Description: -# Forecasts: 32 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: "There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin" --Bill Walker, BBC -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin"%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 2.91% -Description: -# Forecasts: 33 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 36.91% -Description: -# Forecasts: 34 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 47.38% -Description: -# Forecasts: 47 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 38.97% -Description: -# Forecasts: 31 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 83.00% -Description: -# Forecasts: 40 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 47.00% -Description: -# Forecasts: 34 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 54.94% -Description: -# Forecasts: 47 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: No military draft in the United States before 2020. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 90.27% -Description: -# Forecasts: 33 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 8.81% -Description: -# Forecasts: 31 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 82.13% -Description: -# Forecasts: 32 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 8.68% -Description: -# Forecasts: 28 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 0.23% -Description: -# Forecasts: 26 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Trump wins Nobel -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 10.55% -Description: -# Forecasts: 38 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 40.24% -Description: -# Forecasts: 42 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: California will secede from the United States before 2021 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 0.68% -Description: -# Forecasts: 34 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 1.88% -Description: -# Forecasts: 26 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: ...be an environmental disaster. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 26.37% -Description: -# Forecasts: 27 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 46.84% -Description: -# Forecasts: 32 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: The Singularity will occur by 2050. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 35.12% -Description: -# Forecasts: 25 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 7.46% -Description: -# Forecasts: 26 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: "I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases." -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 9.69% -Description: -# Forecasts: 26 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality). -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 58.56% -Description: -# Forecasts: 34 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: 50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 24.39% -Description: -# Forecasts: 28 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 62.27% -Description: -# Forecasts: 26 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 68.88% -Description: -# Forecasts: 25 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 84.11% -Description: -# Forecasts: 27 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 19.35% -Description: -# Forecasts: 23 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Will there be an "Inverse AlphaFold" by end of 2025? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20"Inverse%20AlphaFold"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 33.91% -Description: -# Forecasts: 33 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 6.67% -Description: -# Forecasts: 24 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 58.15% -Description: -# Forecasts: 39 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 20.48% -Description: -# Forecasts: 29 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 60.84% -Description: -# Forecasts: 32 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 37.46% -Description: -# Forecasts: 24 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: ...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 70.19% -Description: -# Forecasts: 21 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 99.41% -Description: -# Forecasts: 22 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 26.36% -Description: -# Forecasts: 25 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 34.13% -Description: -# Forecasts: 47 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Google will survive for 15 more years -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 88.38% -Description: -# Forecasts: 21 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 27.83% -Description: -# Forecasts: 35 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 7.45% -Description: -# Forecasts: 22 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 21.64% -Description: -# Forecasts: 22 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 11.68% -Description: -# Forecasts: 22 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 15.33% -Description: -# Forecasts: 21 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 4.74% -Description: -# Forecasts: 23 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: ...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water) -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 17.05% -Description: -# Forecasts: 20 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: ...all-things-considered, be good for the world. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 80.89% -Description: -# Forecasts: 27 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: 90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 47.05% -Description: -# Forecasts: 21 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 86.75% -Description: -# Forecasts: 24 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 2.21% -Description: -# Forecasts: 19 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 72.43% -Description: -# Forecasts: 23 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: ...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 48.40% -Description: -# Forecasts: 20 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 74.85% -Description: -# Forecasts: 20 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: ...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 36.38% -Description: -# Forecasts: 21 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 6.95% -Description: -# Forecasts: 20 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 54.20% -Description: -# Forecasts: 20 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 39.69% -Description: -# Forecasts: 35 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 83.14% -Description: -# Forecasts: 22 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 56.94% -Description: -# Forecasts: 35 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: United States will invade Australia and take over -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 10.00% -Description: -# Forecasts: 21 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: We will make First Contact before we will have AGI. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 12.05% -Description: -# Forecasts: 21 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: What percentage of people experience a "Clogged drainpipe" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge) -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20"Clogged%20drainpipe"%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 64.34% -Description: -# Forecasts: 50 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 3.32% -Description: -# Forecasts: 22 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 64.80% -Description: -# Forecasts: 40 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 64.28% -Description: -# Forecasts: 18 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 67.55% -Description: -# Forecasts: 22 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 51.78% -Description: -# Forecasts: 18 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: “No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.” -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 40.27% -Description: -# Forecasts: 26 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 12.79% -Description: -# Forecasts: 19 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 8.39% -Description: -# Forecasts: 18 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 83.95% -Description: -# Forecasts: 21 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: The strategy-stealing assumption is "a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run). -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20"a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 33.27% -Description: -# Forecasts: 26 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: “One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.” -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 35.00% -Description: -# Forecasts: 23 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: aliens invade earth in 2023 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 0.94% -Description: -# Forecasts: 18 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 1.72% -Description: -# Forecasts: 18 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 21.62% -Description: -# Forecasts: 21 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 47.17% -Description: -# Forecasts: 23 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 69.33% -Description: -# Forecasts: 18 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: '2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 1.80% -Description: -# Forecasts: 25 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 26.89% -Description: -# Forecasts: 19 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 30.95% -Description: -# Forecasts: 20 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable "in ten thousand years, or so" -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 19.11% -Description: -# Forecasts: 19 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 77.71% -Description: -# Forecasts: 17 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX) -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 4.13% -Description: -# Forecasts: 16 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: US presidents term limits abolished -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 2.24% -Description: -# Forecasts: 17 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 57.78% -Description: -# Forecasts: 18 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 8.12% -Description: -# Forecasts: 17 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 35.53% -Description: -# Forecasts: 19 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 95.32% -Description: -# Forecasts: 19 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 34.67% -Description: -# Forecasts: 18 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 4.90% -Description: -# Forecasts: 20 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Man will travel to Mars by 2030. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 42.89% -Description: -# Forecasts: 18 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans). -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 28.00% -Description: -# Forecasts: 20 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 59.36% -Description: -# Forecasts: 25 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: C still widely in use in the 2020s -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 93.53% -Description: -# Forecasts: 15 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 73.94% -Description: -# Forecasts: 17 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 29.44% -Description: -# Forecasts: 16 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 66.47% -Description: -# Forecasts: 17 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 56.90% -Description: -# Forecasts: 29 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 78.12% -Description: -# Forecasts: 17 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 76.55% -Description: -# Forecasts: 20 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 14.48% -Description: -# Forecasts: 25 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 3.71% -Description: -# Forecasts: 17 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 43.47% -Description: -# Forecasts: 19 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 55.18% -Description: -# Forecasts: 17 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: There will NOT be a "World War III" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's "allies" and NATO and/or western europe) -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20"World%20War%20III"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20"allies"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 93.31% -Description: -# Forecasts: 16 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 41.47% -Description: -# Forecasts: 17 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 11.81% -Description: -# Forecasts: 16 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 92.69% -Description: -# Forecasts: 16 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Will we understand the content of a message from outer space? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 47.39% -Description: -# Forecasts: 18 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: The message begins with "Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow". Should we execute it? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 7.86% -Description: -# Forecasts: 14 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 17.39% -Description: -# Forecasts: 18 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 87.18% -Description: -# Forecasts: 17 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally. -&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 11.19% -Description: -# Forecasts: 16 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: "Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs." --James Miller -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs."%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 9.55% -Description: -# Forecasts: 20 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 5.94% -Description: -# Forecasts: 17 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 14.00% -Description: -# Forecasts: 15 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: "by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system" -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 6.20% -Description: -# Forecasts: 15 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 82.20% -Description: -# Forecasts: 15 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 17.00% -Description: -# Forecasts: 15 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 9.82% -Description: -# Forecasts: 17 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 30.26% -Description: -# Forecasts: 19 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 7.00% -Description: -# Forecasts: 18 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 53.00% -Description: -# Forecasts: 14 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 9.47% -Description: -# Forecasts: 15 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 28.21% -Description: -# Forecasts: 14 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 11.73% -Description: -# Forecasts: 15 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 8.79% -Description: -# Forecasts: 14 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 44.15% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 4.50% -Description: -# Forecasts: 16 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: 10 million -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 8.42% -Description: -# Forecasts: 36 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles) -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 29.33% -Description: -# Forecasts: 18 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Humanity still a thing in 2036 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 89.00% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 40.84% -Description: -# Forecasts: 19 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI "spaceship" be larger than 1m in size? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20"spaceship"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 51.36% -Description: -# Forecasts: 14 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: There be a "SETI Winter" before First Contact. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20"SETI%20Winter"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 73.89% -Description: -# Forecasts: 19 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 10.69% -Description: -# Forecasts: 16 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 44.46% -Description: -# Forecasts: 26 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 5.33% -Description: -# Forecasts: 15 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 32.06% -Description: -# Forecasts: 16 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 85.31% -Description: -# Forecasts: 16 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 18.54% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 9.47% -Description: -# Forecasts: 15 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 4.92% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Truly "Pilotless" air travel will be the standard in 2050. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20"Pilotless"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 62.71% -Description: -# Forecasts: 14 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: ETI is AGI -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 84.61% -Description: -# Forecasts: 18 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 11.08% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: "The Essential Workers" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="The%20Essential%20Workers"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 40.27% -Description: -# Forecasts: 15 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 4.08% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 14.62% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Trump dies of COVID-19 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 6.63% -Description: -# Forecasts: 32 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 27.64% -Description: -# Forecasts: 14 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, "How to create a mind") -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 26.75% -Description: -# Forecasts: 16 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 13.37% -Description: -# Forecasts: 19 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 38.31% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 14.69% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 33.75% -Description: -# Forecasts: 16 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 29.79% -Description: -# Forecasts: 14 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 7.71% -Description: -# Forecasts: 14 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 51.07% -Description: -# Forecasts: 14 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 0.60% -Description: -# Forecasts: 15 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 60.83% -Description: -# Forecasts: 12 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 2.73% -Description: -# Forecasts: 15 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 78.92% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to "train it away"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques) -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20"train%20it%20away"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 63.15% -Description: -# Forecasts: 26 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 33.58% -Description: -# Forecasts: 12 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 37.08% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 30.40% -Description: -# Forecasts: 15 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 69.69% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: "Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150." -lukeprog -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150."%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 66.54% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 63.00% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 63.33% -Description: -# Forecasts: 15 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 52.47% -Description: -# Forecasts: 15 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 43.11% -Description: -# Forecasts: 19 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 49.24% -Description: -# Forecasts: 33 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 70.00% -Description: -# Forecasts: 15 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: 1 year continuous human habitation of the moon -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 15.93% -Description: -# Forecasts: 14 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 46.69% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: 100 million -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 0.79% -Description: -# Forecasts: 29 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 4.64% -Description: -# Forecasts: 14 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 24.33% -Description: -# Forecasts: 12 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 1.31% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 18.25% -Description: -# Forecasts: 12 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: “There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.” -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 3.83% -Description: -# Forecasts: 12 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 20.25% -Description: -# Forecasts: 16 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 46.07% -Description: -# Forecasts: 14 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 7.64% -Description: -# Forecasts: 14 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 14.33% -Description: -# Forecasts: 15 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 86.83% -Description: -# Forecasts: 12 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: “By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.” -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 35.00% -Description: -# Forecasts: 12 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: 'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 14.17% -Description: -# Forecasts: 12 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 17.50% -Description: -# Forecasts: 14 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: “In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.” -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 40.91% -Description: -# Forecasts: 11 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 56.86% -Description: -# Forecasts: 14 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 23.38% -Description: -# Forecasts: 24 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 8.92% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: 'President Mike Pence' -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 14.06% -Description: -# Forecasts: 16 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 29.08% -Description: -# Forecasts: 12 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 67.79% -Description: -# Forecasts: 14 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Trump will run for president in 2024 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 20.38% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 33.09% -Description: -# Forecasts: 11 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the "same"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some "final being"? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20"same"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20"final%20being"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 26.27% -Description: -# Forecasts: 11 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable) -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 28.88% -Description: -# Forecasts: 25 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 40.82% -Description: -# Forecasts: 22 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance ) -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 55.00% -Description: -# Forecasts: 26 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact? -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 33.20% -Description: -# Forecasts: 15 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 1.00% -Description: -# Forecasts: 11 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: “I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 8.00% -Description: -# Forecasts: 11 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 31.64% -Description: -# Forecasts: 11 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 65.93% -Description: -# Forecasts: 14 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 68.67% -Description: -# Forecasts: 12 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 55.57% -Description: -# Forecasts: 14 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 57.00% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 38.64% -Description: -# Forecasts: 11 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 13.67% -Description: -# Forecasts: 12 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: "In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones" --Marc Andreessen -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 75.17% -Description: -# Forecasts: 12 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: "within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million." --Dennis Mangan -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million."%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 64.82% -Description: -# Forecasts: 11 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: "there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years." - Scott Adams -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years."%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 20.73% -Description: -# Forecasts: 11 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 52.69% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 2.42% -Description: -# Forecasts: 12 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 10.79% -Description: -# Forecasts: 14 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_ -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 41.54% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 21.27% -Description: -# Forecasts: 11 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 31.38% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: The LW user account "Grognor" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20"Grognor"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 45.92% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 45.31% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 45.69% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 9.00% -Description: -# Forecasts: 12 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 10.18% -Description: -# Forecasts: 11 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 44.08% -Description: -# Forecasts: 12 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 10.29% -Description: -# Forecasts: 14 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Trump wins the 2020 election. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 47.54% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 28.43% -Description: -# Forecasts: 14 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 93.25% -Description: -# Forecasts: 12 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 28.09% -Description: -# Forecasts: 11 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 23.67% -Description: -# Forecasts: 12 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: China will land a man on Mars by 2050. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 43.08% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 24.75% -Description: -# Forecasts: 12 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 77.83% -Description: -# Forecasts: 12 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: 50 million -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 1.65% -Description: -# Forecasts: 34 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: "At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150." -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 56.21% -Description: -# Forecasts: 14 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: "By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation." -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 16.33% -Description: -# Forecasts: 12 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 3.54% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 3.77% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 5.42% -Description: -# Forecasts: 12 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 10.00% -Description: -# Forecasts: 14 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 60.36% -Description: -# Forecasts: 11 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: “By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.” -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 7.42% -Description: -# Forecasts: 12 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 26.10% -Description: -# Forecasts: 10 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: 1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 41.08% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: At least one self-described "anarchist" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20"anarchist"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 36.82% -Description: -# Forecasts: 11 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 27.79% -Description: -# Forecasts: 14 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 11.30% -Description: -# Forecasts: 10 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 41.30% -Description: -# Forecasts: 10 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: EU to dissolve by 2040. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 39.45% -Description: -# Forecasts: 11 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 34.38% -Description: -# Forecasts: 16 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 33.46% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 48.00% -Description: -# Forecasts: 10 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 15.80% -Description: -# Forecasts: 10 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 55.60% -Description: -# Forecasts: 10 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 17.30% -Description: -# Forecasts: 10 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 78.90% -Description: -# Forecasts: 10 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 15.50% -Description: -# Forecasts: 12 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire) -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 56.91% -Description: -# Forecasts: 11 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 44.17% -Description: -# Forecasts: 12 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: WWIII starts before 2030. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 8.86% -Description: -# Forecasts: 14 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 70.67% -Description: -# Forecasts: 12 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 7.09% -Description: -# Forecasts: 11 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 75.09% -Description: -# Forecasts: 11 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 46.70% -Description: -# Forecasts: 10 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: We ask ETI "do we live in a simulation"? They answer "yes". -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation"?%20They%20answer%20"yes".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 17.92% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 30.90% -Description: -# Forecasts: 10 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. - -By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20 - -By%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 77.10% -Description: -# Forecasts: 10 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 13.08% -Description: -# Forecasts: 12 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 21.70% -Description: -# Forecasts: 10 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as "very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?" -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 29.64% -Description: -# Forecasts: 11 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 13.14% -Description: -# Forecasts: 14 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 10.92% -Description: -# Forecasts: 12 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 16.00% -Description: -# Forecasts: 10 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: ". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form." --Dan King -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form."%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 11.46% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: homosexuality criminalized in the US -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 2.50% -Description: -# Forecasts: 10 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 26.38% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Airbnb to be acquired by 2025 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 34.64% -Description: -# Forecasts: 11 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 29.08% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB). -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 20.40% -Description: -# Forecasts: 10 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians. - -http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/ -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians. - -http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 19.80% -Description: -# Forecasts: 10 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 22.08% -Description: -# Forecasts: 12 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 9.36% -Description: -# Forecasts: 14 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 0.50% -Description: -# Forecasts: 10 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization. -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 12.09% -Description: -# Forecasts: 11 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 4.20% -Description: -# Forecasts: 10 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII). -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 6.09% -Description: -# Forecasts: 11 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: “China will break apart by 2030” -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 24.60% -Description: -# Forecasts: 10 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: “The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.” -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 11.46% -Description: -# Forecasts: 13 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 1.36% -Description: -# Forecasts: 11 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032 -URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 -Platform: Elicit -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 52.73% -Description: -# Forecasts: 11 -Stars: ★☆☆☆☆ - -Title: Will the Universe end? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/161/will-the-universe-end/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 72% -Description: Warning: you're not going to win or lose any points on this one. The question of whether the world will end is a perennial one, with The End sometimes forecast to come within a human lifetime or two. This is an ultra-important question, but not the biggest possible one: we can widen our question to whether "The Universe" will end. Even posing this question is not very straightforward, as "The Universe" has come to mean a great variety of things, from the observable universe that we see through telescopes, all the way through various types of [multiverses](http://www.britannica.com/science/multiverse) . So let's start with some definitions. When we view a particular epoch of the universe through electromagnetic (and now gravitational!) radiation, we are seeing a two-dimensional sphere that we can think of as the "sky" at some "distance." Assembling these nested spheres back to around the [nucleosynthesis era](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_nucleosynthesis) era gives a ball of a... -# Forecasts: 552 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 30% -Description: [SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an "Interplanetary Transport System" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach. The timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX "gets lucky and things go according to plan", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent ... -# Forecasts: 4920 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 59% -Description: A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the "natural" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing beyond the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan? A [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind. Who will win? Resolution is positive if a human born prior to 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150. Per the current list of oldest humans, the earliest possible resolution time is 2049. -# Forecasts: 804 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: false -Percentage: none -Description: Large-scale generation of electric power by nuclear fusion is a holy grail of energy science research. The potential for scalability (due to abundant ocean reserves of deuterium), and the relatively small level and short lifetime of radioactive waste could allow fusion power to contribute significantly to a zero-carbon sustainable global electrical supply. In additional to large governmental efforts like the US [National Ignition Facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Ignition_Facility), Europe's [ITER](https://www.iter.org), [HiPER](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HiPER), and the [Wendelstein 7-X](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendelstein_7-X), there are also a number of private companies developing fusion technology. Private efforts include [General Fusion](http://generalfusion.com), [Tri-Alpha Energy](http://trialphaenergy.com), and [Lockheed-Martin](http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/compact-fusion.html), but all are cagey about their benchmarks and progress. Is the... -# Forecasts: 290 -Stars: ★★★☆☆ - -Title: Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/372/will-human-brain-emulation-be-the-first-successful-route-to-human-level-digital-intelligence/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 5% -Description: In the quest for "strong" Artificial Intelligence, defined here as digital intelligences rivaling or surpassing that of humans, a number of potential path have been discussed. Among them is "brain emulation," in which the physical functioning of a human brain is directly simulated, at some level of detail, in a digital computer. In an interesting recent book, [The Age of Em](https://www.amazon.com/Age-Em-Work-Robots-Earth/dp/0198754620), Robin Hanson explores the potential dynamics of human society assuming such "Ems" can be created, and that this occurs prior to the advent of other forms of strong AI. (See also a [recent post by Hanson](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/11/brains-simpler-than-brain-cells.html) discussing the relative timing of different AI paths.) There is considerable debate about the technological feasibility of such simulation: though there is general (though not universal) agreement that the brain, being a physical system, is amenable to being simulated, the ne... -# Forecasts: 408 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: The end of the EU as we know it by 2026? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 10% -Description: Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe) . Some commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it. Will there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten... -# Forecasts: 826 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 61% -Description: Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. Machine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there ... -# Forecasts: 918 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: Robocup Challenge -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/397/robocup-challenge/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 25% -Description: The [Robocup Challenge](http://www.robocup.org/objective) was launched in the mid-1990s as a "grand challenge" in robotics. The stated goal of the challenge is: By the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup. On the road to this challenge, annual Robocup games are played; see [here](http://www.robocup.org/events/upcoming_events) for upcoming events. Will the Robocup challenge be met by 2050? Positive resolution requires announcement by the Robocup challenge organization that the challenge has been officially accomplished. -# Forecasts: 301 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: When will there be machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO construction? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: false -Percentage: none -Description: For more than 100 years, machines have been replacing human physical labor, especially in jobs requiring great physical strength, or endurance, or extremely repetitive and well-defined motions. This has arguably accelerated in recent decades, and there is a current growing push for " [lights out manufacturing](http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB1037666065632825628)," i.e. have no light-requiring humans in-the-loop. It has proven harder to create robots that can substitute for the fine-grained dexterity and motor control of many physical tasks, especially those where the action must be in response to, or dictated by, visual or verbal information. Robots are, however, continually improving, and it is not hard to extrapolate to a time when most non-intellectual factory-type jobs can be done by autonomous systems that can be directly "slotted in" for a human worker. As a benchmark for the type of visual and manual processing required, we ask: When will a robot exist that is able to completely a... -# Forecasts: 296 -Stars: ★★★☆☆ - -Title: When will AIs program programs that can program AIs? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: false -Percentage: none -Description: As of 2017, humans can (with assistance of various software tools) program machine learning (ML) systems that can learn to do various tasks – for example, recognize text, transcribe speech, or play games. ML systems are currently not very good at writing programs to accomplish a specific purpose, though there are efforts in this direction, and some software systems (e.g. Mathematica and Wolfram-alpha) which are quite high-level programming systems. (See the related question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/)). If or when AI/ML systems become competent enough to do fairly general-purpose programming, for example to construct by themselves (according to some specifications) the types of narrow AI systems that AI researchers can create as of 2017, there could be a very rapid proliferation of such narrow AI systems since they could be constructed to-order for all manner of purposes even by non-programmers. If an AI/ML system could beco... -# Forecasts: 489 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/418/when-will-the-first-law-concerning-artificial-intelligence-be-passed-in-the-us/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: false -Percentage: none -Description: As of now, there are to the author's knowledge no laws (or even regulations) concerning artificial intelligence on the books. When will the first law be passed in the US concerning AI? Resolution will occur if/when a bill with "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" in either the long or short official title or official description listed at [https://www.gpo.gov/](https://www.gpo.gov/) or other equivalent source. -# Forecasts: 422 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: If you die today and get cryonically frozen, will you "wake up"? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/455/if-you-die-today-and-get-cryonically-frozen-will-you-wake-up/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 5% -Description: Individual death has long been attributed a 100% long-term probability. But for just as long, there have been desires, schemes, and claims of ways to prolong life indefinitely. In moderns times, three examples include anti-aging research (the ultimate version of which would be personal immortality), digital mind-upload, and cryonics. The latter is the subject of this question. The basic idea is simple: upon bodily death, preserve as much structure (especially in the brain) as possible via immediate freezing, and maintain this until medical technology had advanced to the degree that the individual can be fully reconstructed – memories, personality and all – using this preserved structure. (For an entertaining long read check out [this Wait-but-why piece](http://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/cryonics.html) .) The ability to quickly freeze tissue in a structure-preserving way has steadily improved; an [existing question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/437/when-will-the-large-brain-preservat... -# Forecasts: 536 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/480/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-white-winning/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 39% -Description: [Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player (white) wins, second player (black) wins, or there is a forced draw. In the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to: 1-- White wins 2-- Black wins 3-- Forced draw If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning? For the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if --- it is proved that white will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides --- it is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw Resolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication. For the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](http... -# Forecasts: 131 -Stars: ★★★☆☆ - -Title: Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/489/will-the-european-union-meet-its-2030-targets-under-the-paris-climate-treaty/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 35% -Description: Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including the European Union, [the world's #3 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions) Under the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. The EU's goal was to reduce emissions by 40% below 1990 levels. If achieved, by 2030 the EU will emit around [3.4-3.9 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html), whereas today the region accounts for [3.46 gigatons per year, or nearly ten percent of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions) . Emissions have been in decline since 1990. Current projections estimate that the EU goals represent [a slowdown in the region's trend of emission reduction](http://climateacti... -# Forecasts: 292 -Stars: ★★★☆☆ - -Title: Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/491/will-china-achieve-its-paris-climate-agreement-goals/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 64% -Description: Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including China, [the world's #1 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions) Under the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. China's goal was to reduce emissions by 60-65% per unit GDP by 2030. This means that the country plans to reduce the emissions intensity, or the [ratio of emissions to gross domestic product](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_intensity), a measure that ties emissions goals to economic growth. If achieved, by 2030 China will emit around [13-14 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html), whereas today the country accounts for [10.6 gigatons per year, or 29.5% of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countr... -# Forecasts: 273 -Stars: ★★★☆☆ - -Title: With an international nuclear weapons ban in place, will a country that has nuclear weapons actually give them up by 2035? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 20% -Description: In July 2017, 122 member states of the United Nations [adopted a ban](http://time.com/4848586/un-nuclear-weapons-ban-treaty/) on nuclear weapons. The participating states agreed to "never under any circumstances to develop, test, produce, manufacture, otherwise acquire, possess or stockpile nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices." Notably, [none of the nations](http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/27/politics/un-nuclear-ban-boycott/) that currently possess nuclear weapons participated in the negotiations of the ban or adopted the document. Several treaties prior to this aimed to curb the development of nuclear weapons, notably the 1968 [Non-Proliferation Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons) (NPT), which sought to limit nuclear development beyond five nuclear powers - the U.S., Russia, China, the U.K., and France. Arguments against nuclear disarmament typically cite the principle of [deterrence](http://americanhistory.si.edu/subs/h... -# Forecasts: 258 -Stars: ★★★☆☆ - -Title: Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/512/will-an-ai-system-do-credibly-well-on-a-full-math-sat-exam-by-2025/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 71% -Description: Humans have devised many ways of assessing other humans' intelligence, and forcing people to participate in such measures. University entrance exams are one of the most familiar, inflicted on countless high school students each year as standardized measures of academic competence and promise. Recently, these exams have begun the target of AI and machine learning projects. According to a [report by Engadget](https://www.engadget.com/2016/11/16/japanese-ai-tokyo-university-fail/), Japan’s National Institute of Informatics had been working on an AI since 2011 with the final objective of passing the entrance exam for the University of Tokyo, tentatively by March 2022. However, a recent [report](https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/japanese-artificial-intelligence-gives-up-on-university-of-tokyo-admissions-exam/) has revealed that the institute will be terminating the project because of its AI's inability to fully understand the broad context of the entrance exam questions. More recently... -# Forecasts: 651 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: Will the first commercial hyperloop system be within the US? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/513/will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-be-within-the-us/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 36% -Description: Elon Musk's dream of a hyperloop – a pod-based transportation system that uses magnetic levitation in a near-vacuum – is coming closer to reality. Tests in the Nevada desert have achieved speeds up to 192 mph, and Musk announced in July 2017 that he had ["verbal approval"](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/07/20/elon-musk-hyperloop/495735001/) for a hyperloop between New York and Washington, DC. (Though it is rather unclear what exactly this means.) But other countries are interested too. Dubai and Russia are both developing plans. For Russia, a hyperloop could open up new areas of the country to [trade with China](https://hyperloop-one.com/blog/hyperloop-one-can-open-russias-far-east-china-trade) . If, that is, [lawsuits](https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-13/russia-s-hyperloop-dream-stalls) don't derail the project. In Dubai, designs for a Dubai-Abu Dhabi hyperloop network [already exist](http://www.businessinsider.com/hyperloop-one-how-it-works-2017-7/#the-start... -# Forecasts: 273 -Stars: ★★★☆☆ - -Title: A major United States earthquake by 2023? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 30% -Description: The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. The [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by "The Big One," with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, r... -# Forecasts: 535 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: Will humans go extinct by 2100? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 1% -Description: While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event. In 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain o... -# Forecasts: 682 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: Will VR or AR Headsets dominate by 2025? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/579/will-vr-or-ar-headsets-dominate-by-2025/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 50% -Description: If you asked someone in the early 2010s about virtual reality, they'd likely hearken back to the VR craze of the 90s, which fizzled out instead of being the promised wave of the future. But since then, with the development of the Oculus Rift, Google Cardboard and other systems, virtual reality has become more accessible and more useful than ever before. Estimates of sales of VR systems in 2016 exceeded [12 million units](https://www.statista.com/statistics/458037/virtual-reality-headsets-unit-sales-worldwide/) worldwide. Augmented reality, or AR, has come into its own in about the same timeframe. AR overlays virtual content onto images of the real world. Google Glass, introduced in 2013, and Microsoft's HoloLens, still in development, are wearable AR devices. Pokemon Go, introduced in summer 2016, demonstrated the possibilities of smartphone-based AR - no glasses needed. As Google Glass continues to find [application in factories and other workplaces](https://www.wired.com/story/googl... -# Forecasts: 251 -Stars: ★★★☆☆ - -Title: 2˚C global warming by 2100? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 89% -Description: At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) "well below 2 ˚C" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy. Therefore, it is asked: Will there, by 2100, have been a period of at least 5 consecutive years, in which the average global temperature in each year was at least 2.0 ˚C greater than the average global temperature in 1880. (Note that 1880 isn't exactly pre-industrial, but earlier data is highly unreliable, and there should really not have been much warming by then.) Data for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the dat... -# Forecasts: 359 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: World Population in 2050? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: false -Percentage: none -Description: The world population has been steadily increasing for several centuries. As of November 2017, the world's population stands at approximately 7.6 billion people. According to UN projections the world population will be 9.7 billion in 2050. Regrettably, increases in world population are worrying some people, who are concerned that an increased population may be too much for an already strained environment to bear. Indeed, overpopulation can be seen as the root cause on many problems, from climate change to resource depletion. Therefore, it is asked:What will be the world population on the 31st of December 2050? We shall define world population as the number of living humans on planet earth. We'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs,... -# Forecasts: 305 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: false -Percentage: none -Description: [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/) asks whether conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life will be found within our Solar System. As specified in that question, the extraterrestrial life must not have been put in place as a result of human activity. Conditional to a positive resolution, we ask where the organisms (under natural conditions, no probes moving them, etc.) live or lived. We consider the most commonly discussed options, and a few other possibilities. 1--Venus. 2--Mars. 3--Europa. 4--Ganymede. 5--Another moon of Jupiter. 6--Enceladus. 7--Titan. 8--Another moon of Saturn. 9--A dwarf planet. 10-An asteroid. 11-Another place in the Solar System. Resolution is ambiguous if [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-sol... -# Forecasts: 79 -Stars: ★★☆☆☆ - -Title: Increased off-world population in 2050? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/594/off-world-population-in-2050/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 93% -Description: At the time of writing this question, there are 6 people in low Earth orbit, no people on suborbital space flights, no people in high orbit, or on the Moon or Mars or any asteroid or en route to those places. Up-to-date information on the space population may be [found here.](https://www.howmanypeopleareinspacerightnow.com/) For the last 17 years, since the International Space Station (ISS) began long term operations, the population of humans in space has been at least two – the minimal crew of the ISS. The highest number of people in space at any one time has been 13, reached in 1995 and 2009. But the ISS is reaching the end of its life. Despite discussions of many other possible crewed space missions, even up to colonization of the Moon or Mars, no particular venture seems certain. This uncertainty about future space missions means the distribution of possible populations is not at all Gaussian. There are many scenarios where crewed spaceflight might be abandoned – it is expensiv... -# Forecasts: 455 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: Will a sample of negative energy be produced by 2100? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/600/will-a-sample-of-negative-energy-be-produced-by-2100/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 20% -Description: Warp drives. Wormholes. Time machines. These exotic structures are the stuff of science fiction, but also have valid mathematical structures behind them in the form of spacetime "metrics" one can write down with the requisite properties. There is one major physical issue standing in the way actually making them, however: all these possibilities require negative energy. More specifically, relativists have devised a number of mathematical conditions that may be assumed regarding matter and energy, known as "energy conditions." Wormhole, warp-drive, and time-machine solutions to Einstein's equations essentially always require some substance that violates the "weak energy condition" (WEC), and generally others. Most simply, the WEC states that in the restframe of a material, its energy density is non-negative. (Technically the substance's pressure also must be sufficiently non-negative; see e.g. [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_condition) for a brief description, and a good rel... -# Forecasts: 227 -Stars: ★★★☆☆ - -Title: Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected within the next 10 years? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/604/will-gravitational-waves-from-the-merger-of-supermassive-black-holes-be-detected-within-the-next-10-years/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 67% -Description: The Nobel Prize-winning detection of gravitational waves added a new observational tool for astronomers to use in studying celestial events. But an as-yet-unobserved phenomenon would make all the gravitational wave detections so far seem like small potatoes. When two galaxies merge, the supermassive black holes at their centers would merge as well, and the process would emit gravitational waves. But the wavelength of those waves would be undetectable by the LIGO observatory. They're best detected by pulsar. Pulsars emit electromagnetic radiation at regular intervals. A gravitational wave would slightly change the distance from the Earth to a pulsar, and thus slightly change the pulsar's timing as well. In a paper in [Nature Astronomy](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-017-0299-6), astronomers use observation data and models of supermassive black hole merger events to conclude that we should be able to detect such an event within the next 10 years. If we don't, it could indicate ... -# Forecasts: 259 -Stars: ★★★☆☆ - -Title: How much global warming by 2100? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: false -Percentage: none -Description: At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) "well below 2 ˚C" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy. [It was previously asked whether global warming would exceed 2 ˚C.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) While this is the more interesting question out of a political perspective, given that world leaders have taken 2 ˚C to be their target, the more interesting question for humanity as a whole will be how much warming we will actually have. Therefore it is asked:How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2100 be than the average global temperatu... -# Forecasts: 460 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: Will we detect a message originating from Luyten's Star before 2046? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/606/luytens-star-message-detected-before-2046/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 1% -Description: In October 2017, Messaging Extraterrestrial Intelligence International (METI) transmitted a [signal into space](https://www.cnet.com/news/seti-space-aliens-extra-terrestrial-intelligence-luytens-star-gj-273/) designed to let other civilizations know we're here. The message, transmitted to a [red dwarf star](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luyten%27s_Star) 12 light-years from Earth and contains information on human understanding of science, math and time. In March 2017, a planet three times the mass of Earth within the habitable zone was discovered orbiting the star. If there's anyone on that planet who receives the message, their reply could arrive as early as 2042. Will a response to the METI signal arrive by 2045? This question will resolve as positive if a signal of unambiguously intelligent and extraterrestrial origin originating from Luyten's Star is detected on or near Earth on or before December 31, 2045. -# Forecasts: 268 -Stars: ★★★☆☆ - -Title: Will our current peace be shorter than the Pax Romana? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/610/will-our-current-peace-be-shorter-than-the-pax-romana/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 53% -Description: The [Pax Romana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Romana) was a period of relative peace, which lasted for approximately 206 years from 27 BC to AD 180. The peace was not absolute, though, and the historian Walter Goffart wrote, "The volume of the Cambridge Ancient History for the years A.D. 70–192 is called 'The Imperial Peace', but peace is not what one finds in its pages". Similarly, there have been wars in the post-ww2 era, despite the era being relatively peaceful. The post-WW2 peace has also lasted for only about 72 years as of the writing of this question, making it only about 35% as long as the Pax Romana. In order to last as long as the Pax Romana, our peace would have to endure until 2151. There are many things threatening peace, from seemingly perpetual unrest in the middle-east to an increasingly tense situation on the Korean peninsula. Yet, a major global conflict in the near future seems unlikely. When predicting whether a major global conflict will occur within a longer... -# Forecasts: 357 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: Will there be a Vegan Country by 2100? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/614/will-there-be-a-vegan-country-by-2100/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 20% -Description: Interest in Veganism has increased substantially in recent years, but it is unclear whether the current wave of Veganism will become the movement that will make eating animal products a thing of the past or just turn out to be another fad. It was [previously asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/581/will-interest-in-veganism-further-increase-in-2018/), whether the month with the maximum internet interest in Veganism in 2018 would have a interest at least 25% greater than the month with the greatest interest in 2017. This question, however, does not assess whether Veganism can reach its ultimate potential. Some Vegans believe the consumption of animal products to be sufficiently immoral to justify a legal ban. Therefore, a society in which Veganism has reached its full potential would ban the consumption of animal products. It is asked: Will there be a country that bans the consumption of all animal products by 2100? Consumption means eating, wearing, or otherwise applying to the b... -# Forecasts: 459 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: Will we reach the island of stability by 2050? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/658/will-we-reach-the-island-of-stability-by-2050/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 45% -Description: Since the synthesis of neptunium in 1940, we have been continually expanding the periodic table by creating new elements. Regrettably, as atoms have become bigger, they also have become less stable, the last few elements to be created having a half-life of less than a second. Yet it is theorized that at some point, stability of new elements might start increasing again, creating an [island of stability]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_of_stability) . There are certain "magic numbers" of protons that offer the chance of higher stability; 114, 120 and 126 are magic numbers. We have yet to reach elements 120 and 126 and there might still be more stable isotopes of element 114 that have not yet been created. It is asked: Will we create an isotope of an element that has more than 110 protons, that has a half-life of at least one day (86,400 seconds) prior to 2050? In order for the question to resolve positive the half-life of the isotope must be verified by an independent scientific ... -# Forecasts: 197 -Stars: ★★★☆☆ - -Title: Kessler syndrome by 2050? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/665/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-operational-in-2030/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 15% -Description: The [Kessler syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome) is a situation where a major satellite collision causes an increase in space junk, causing a cascading effect destroying many if not most other satellites. We are currently losing about one satellite per year due to collisions with space junk, yet these collisions are far too small to cause a runaway effect. Furthermore, action has been taken by the Federal Communications Commission to reduce the chance of this happening and regulations in the U.S. require all satellites launched after March 18, 2002 to be disposed of by controlled atmospheric reentry or a boost into a graveyard orbit after shutdown. It is asked: By 2050 will we have had a one year period in which we will have lost at least 10% of our operational satellites due to collisions with space junk? -# Forecasts: 425 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: When will the world create the first Trillionaire? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: false -Percentage: none -Description: In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in. International bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around [11 trillionaires](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10808915/World-could-see-first-trillionaire-in-25-years.html) within 2 generations. Others speculate that bitcoin's mystery founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, might [claim the title](https://mashable.com/2017/12/12/bitcoin-satoshi-trillionaire/) . Despite the fact that Amazon's Jeff Bezos is [nearing the $100B mark](https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/dec/19/when-will-we-see-the-worlds-first-trillionaire-jeff-bezos-bill-gates), we're not yet nearing $1T territory. What do you think? When will we cross the threshold? For a positive result, an individual must be ranked on [Forbes' Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2017/03/20/forbes-2017-billionaires-list-meet-the-richest-people-on-the-planet... -# Forecasts: 353 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 14.000000000000002% -Description: The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the [world record for breath holding](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-time-breath-held-voluntarily-(male)), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016. That busted other previous records, such as magician David Blaine’s impressive 17 minute breath hold. Amazing details on Blaine’s feat are available in this [TED Talk](https://www.ted.com/talks/david_blaine_how_i_held_my_breath_for_17_min) All very nice. But bioengineering will allow us to push the record up—possibily, way up. Some techniques, like “lung packing,” are already being put to use by daredevils. [Per Deadspin](https://deadspin.com/how-long-can-humans-hold-their-breath-1467541916) : This [lung packing] consists of inhaling the very largest breath possible, and then, without exhaling, puffing your cheeks full of more air and attempting to force that air down int... -# Forecasts: 230 -Stars: ★★★☆☆ - -Title: Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/685/will-the-us-get-rid-of-the-penny-by-2025/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 25% -Description: If you haven’t seen CGP Grey’s ["Death to Pennies"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5UT04p5f7U) video, it’s worth the watch. Funny, and mildly enraging. It raises a great question that deserves answering: Why DOES the U.S. Mint continue to produce pennies, year after year? After all, it [costs more to mint](http://time.com/money/4618271/penny-cost-make-worth/) these coins than they’re worth as currency. You can’t use them in vending machines, parking meters or arcades. They accumulate in jars and slow transactions. Yes, technically, you can throw them in a fountain and make wishes on them. And they have more intrinsic value than, say, Bitcoins. But they’re also choking hazards. Per [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/children-and-choking-hazards/) : Coins, especially pennies, are a major choking hazard and since adults rarely pick them up, they are plentiful on the ground for children. Many people have had enough. Last April, U.S. Senators John McCain and Mike Enzi reintroduced a... -# Forecasts: 364 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 55.00000000000001% -Description: Every space geek loves Mars. Mars gets [all the robots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_artificial_objects_on_Mars) as well as [all the movies](https://www.ranker.com/list/the-best-mars-movies/all-genre-movies-lists) . But whither Venus? Where’s the love for our beautiful goddess neighbor who apparently welcomed the Russian Venera-13 lander by crushing it to death within hours. Informed [speculation on Quora](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-current-condition-of-the-Venera-probe-that-landed-on-the-surface-of-Venus-in-1982) suggests that: The [Venera 13] lander's seals and pressurized chambers were breached the day of the landing, so all of the material and equipment that the Venera was designed to protect was melted and boiled off decades ago. Yikes. Okay, maybe that's why we don't drop by more often. Venus is often compared to a literal hellscape. We know about the surface temperatures that melt lead, the sulfuric acid clouds, the poisonous metal snow, etc. But Venus is also in... -# Forecasts: 428 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: When will there be a mile-high building? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/735/when-will-there-be-a-mile-high-building/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: false -Percentage: none -Description: The [Burj Khalifa](http://www.burjkhalifa.ae/en/index.aspx) towers over the Dubai desert at 2,717 feet (828 meters; for this question [United States customary units](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_customary_units) are appropriate), making it currently (as of March 2018) the tallest manmade building in the world. It’s held that record since 2008, and it bests the next tallest skyscraper, the [Shanghai Towers](http://www.skyscrapercenter.com/building/shanghai-tower/56) in Shanghai, China by nearly 650 feet. (One World Trade Center, the tallest building in the U.S., lags behind at 1,776 feet.) But guess what, Burj? Your days of being #1 are (probably) numbered. Several projects on the development slate are on schedule to overtake Dubai’s neo-futuristic megatall landmark. Among them: --- The Jeddah Tower in Saudi Arabia, which will stretch up a whole kilometer [above the Earth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeddah_Tower) by 2021 --- In 2021, [Merdeka PNB118](http://www.skys... -# Forecasts: 203 -Stars: ★★★☆☆ - -Title: Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 71% -Description: As of 2018, it's taken [about 16 years for the world economic output to double](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) . So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence. An important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example. Paul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same ar... -# Forecasts: 281 -Stars: ★★★☆☆ - -Title: Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 85% -Description: SpaceX has released plans for an "Interplanetary Transport System" with the goal (among other things) of sending people to Mars. In typical Elon Musk fashion, the announced timelines are wildly optimistic or aspirational. But Musk and SpaceX do seem very committed to reaching Mars. In another question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030) it is asked if Musk's optimistic timeline will be met, landing people on Mars by 2030. This question sets a scaled-back goal: Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030? This will resolve positive if a SpaceX branded mission, where the primary launch hardware and Mars entry, descent, and landing systems are built by SpaceX, successfully lands on Mars by Jan 1, 2030. -# Forecasts: 1058 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 48% -Description: In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.” On the one hand, Puerto Ricans can: --- Claim natural-born U.S. citizenship --- Receive Medicaid and Medicare --- Vote in Presidential primaries On the other hand, they cannot: --- Vote in Congressional or Presidential elections --- Get access to other government programs --- Be represented in Congress by a voting legislator The issue of whether to elevate Puerto Rico to statehood has been raised repeatedly since 1952. In fact, island residents have voted in statehood referendums in: 1967, 1991,1993, 1998 and 2012. In the most recent vote, sentiment on the island turned positive for the first time in voting history: Puerto Ricans want their own state. Why? Well, the reasons are complicated. Those in ... -# Forecasts: 381 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/804/1000th-binary-question-resolution-is-positive/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 36% -Description: It was previously asked [whether a question of unknown nature would resolve positive]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/666/will-this-question-resolve-positive/) . The Metaculus prediction ended up being 29.9% despite only 26.4% of previous binary Metaculus questions resolving positive. Once the nature of the question was revealed, it became clear that (despite resolving negative) the question was a lot more likely to resolve positive than the average Metaculus question. (A fair a priori probably would have been larger than 50%.) As of the writing of this question, 525 binary Metaculus questions have resolved, the majority negative. This question is going to probe what the fair a priori of a future question will be. This avoids the arbitrariness of who gets to choose the secret question, as that still remains uncertain. It is asked: Will the 1000th binary Metaculus question resolution be positive? To avoid an incentive for cheating, whoever was the author of the 1000th question shou... -# Forecasts: 86 -Stars: ★★☆☆☆ - -Title: Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered by 2045? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/808/will-europa-be-the-first-place-humanity-will-discover-extraterrestrial-life-if-it-is-discovered-by-2045/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 22% -Description: Every astrobiologist and their brother is excited about the possibility of life on Jupiter's moon, Europa. And for good reason. It's likely got more liquid water than our fair Earth does. Thanks to Jupiter's gravitation tugging, there's almost certainly lots of volcanic activities beneath those seas to create an environment similar to the one we suspect [gave rise to life](https://www.whoi.edu/news-release/study-tests-theory-that-life-originated-at-deep-sea-vents) on this planet. In addition to fantasizing extensively about [discovering life on Europa](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NlvndXpmEA), our species has been busy preparing recon missions to sample [tasty plumes](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-s-hubble-spots-possible-water-plumes-erupting-on-jupiters-moon-europa/) of water+organics fulminating off the surface. Maybe we'll get lucky and find convincing proof of biological activity on Europa with the [Clipper mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/europa-clipper/) .... -# Forecasts: 343 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/809/will-a-member-of-president-trumps-inner-circle-be-sentenced-to-jail-by-2023/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 90% -Description: For the purposes of this question, we'll confine Trump's "inner circle" to the following people: --- [Donald Trump himself](http://www.newsweek.com/could-trump-face-jail-time-mueller-investigation-776140) --- [Donald Trump Junior](http://www.newsweek.com/jared-kushner-donald-trump-jr-steve-bannon-michael-wolff-money-laundering-771166) --- [Ivanka Trump](http://www.newsweek.com/will-mueller-charge-ivanka-trump-russia-investigation-2018-773055) --- [Jared Kushner](https://www.pastemagazine.com/articles/2017/11/jared-kushners-chances-of-staying-out-of-prison-ju.html) ---Mike Pence --- [Michael Cohen](https://www.vox.com/2018/4/13/17226678/michael-cohen-raid-trump-pardon-law) ---John Kelly ---Hope Hicks --- [Steve Bannon](https://lawandcrime.com/legal-analysis/bannon-could-face-contempt-sanctions-for-not-answering-questions/) Note #1: Links go to articles related to potential criminal charges against individuals. Note #2: Steve Bannon is included on the list, even though he and Tr... -# Forecasts: 315 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/824/will-a-practical-nuclear-fusion-reactor-first-be-developed-in-china/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 30% -Description: With an enormous amount of energy created per unit mass of fuel, cheap and abundance (e.g. deuterium) fuel, and relatively benign waste products, practical energy generation from nuclear fusion would be transformative for the world. A [number of questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:phys-sci--nuclear) relate to efforts in the US and Europe, but there is another major player in the field: China. As discussed in [this story](http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/20289/china-touts-fusion-progress-as-new-details-on-lockheed-martins-reactor-emerge), China is pouring significant resources into practical nuclear fusion. So we ask: When practical nuclear fusion is developed, will it first be in China? For these purposes we define "practical" as an operational high-temperature nuclear fusion reactor that can (a) produce a demonstrated positive energy balance exceeding 100 megawatts for more than one week, and (b) have a sustainable plan for long-term operations (e.g. no cri... -# Forecasts: 315 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: Will Metaculus exist in 2030? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/841/will-metaculus-exist-in-2030/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 85% -Description: Due to the fact that some of Metaculus' questions (and some of the most interesting/important ones for that) are extremely long-term, some users have expressed concern that Metaculus will not be around for resolution. While whether Metaculus will be around to resolve very long-term questions may not be of direct interest to predictors, as it does not really make sense to predict with points in mind if those points are decades away anyway, it would still be interesting to get a sense of what the probability is that Metaculus will be around in a couple of decades time. Therefore, it is asked:Will Metaculus still be operating on January 1st 2030? A positive resolution does not require the site to still operate at [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) in 2030, but it does require a degree of continuity with the current version of Metaculus so that no more than 1% of all predictions ever made may have been lost from players' point calculating process and no more than one percent of once ope... -# Forecasts: 460 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: Will the world's richest person in 2033 have a net worth greater than that of John D. Rockefeller in 1913? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/899/will-the-worlds-richest-person-in-2033-have-a-net-worth-greater-than-that-of-john-d-rockefeller-in-1913/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 33% -Description: [John D. Rockefeller](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_D._Rockefeller) is considered to be the wealthiest American of all time. In 1913 he was the world's richest person with a net worth of over a billion dollars. That was equivalent to about 2% of the United States' GDP back then. For reference, 2% of US GDP would be close to 400 billion dollars today! This reference perspective makes him much richer than the current richest person in the world, Jeff Bezos, whose net worth is at 112 billion dollars in the 2018 Forbes ranking. Yet, inequality is on the rise in many developed countries and the net worth of the richest person in the world has been consistently increasing over the last few years. Could a person as rich as John D. Rockefeller reappear in the modern world? It is asked:Will the richest person in the world in 2033 have a net worth equivalent to or greater than 2% of the United States' GDP at the time? Data for resolution shall be taken from the [2033 Forbes Billionaires lis... -# Forecasts: 245 -Stars: ★★★☆☆ - -Title: Will we discover clear evidence of proton decay by 2040? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/915/will-we-discover-clear-evidence-of-proton-decay-by-2040/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 28.000000000000004% -Description: Protons are durable little subatomic particles. Our collective best guess that they should take at least years to decay... if they do so at all. Why do scientists want to figure this out? Symmetry Magazine explains the situation: Much [the theoritical work on Grand Unified Theories of the universe] rests on the existence of proton decay, and yet we’ve never seen a proton die. The reason may simply be that protons rarely decay, a hypothesis borne out by both experiment and theory... Because of quantum physics, the time any given proton decays is random, so a tiny fraction will decay long before that -year lifetime. So, “what you need to do is to get a whole bunch of protons together,” says [University of California's Jonathan Feng]. Increasing the number of protons increases the chance that one of them will decay while you’re watching. Several experiments around the world have attempted (and will be attempting) to quantify the whys and wherefores of proton decay. Two of the most impo... -# Forecasts: 152 -Stars: ★★★☆☆ - -Title: Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/916/will-another-911-on-us-soil-be-prevented-at-least-through-2030/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 75% -Description: As of mid-2018, it's been almost 17 years since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks that destroyed the Twin Towers in New York and damaged the Pentagon. Nearly 3,000 people died in the attack. Since that time, fortunately, there hasn't been another attack on the U.S. homeland that's anywhere close to the size and scale of 9/11. However, we cannot rest easy. As The Atlantic [reported](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/09/are-we-any-safer/492761/) in September 2016: Are we safer? Yes, we’re safer from the kind of orchestrated attack that shocked us on that September morning. It’s harder for terrorists to get into the country, and harder for them to pull off something spectacular if they do. But we have not plugged some of the most threatening security gaps. A special report compiled by the Heritage Foundation examined [60 terrorist plots](https://www.heritage.org/terrorism/report/60-terrorist-plots-911-continued-lessons-domestic-counterterrorism) that have unfolded ... -# Forecasts: 224 -Stars: ★★★☆☆ - -Title: Will a space elevator successfully be built by 2100? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/917/will-a-space-elevator-successfully-be-built-by-2100/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 8% -Description: Ahh, to build a space elevator. Wouldn't that be grand? We could move material into space at a fraction of the cost of conventional rockets. Space tourism would [boom](https://www.herox.com/crowdsourcing-news/137-going-up-the-case-for-a-space-elevator) . We'd launch interplanetary missions. Oh happy day. [Futurism explains](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/) : According to [a NASA] study, a flexible and durable cable with a space station counterweight could serve as a viable space elevator. A mechanical “climber” — using magnetic levitation or rollers along the tether — would then carry many tons of equipment or people into orbit. Although such a project would cost in the tens of billions, it would eventually pay for itself by providing much cheaper space travel to a greatly expanded market. The question is: can we do this? Kurzgesagt (a.k.a. "in a nutshell") explores the state of affairs in [this entertaining video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?... -# Forecasts: 357 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: When will we get the last communication from Voyager 1? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/943/when-will-we-get-the-last-communication-from-voyager-1/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: false -Percentage: none -Description: Launched in September, 1977, the Voyager 1 spacecraft is currently the most distant manmade object in space. Amazingly, it continues to "phone home" even from its position [beyond the heliosheath](https://eyes.jpl.nasa.gov/eyes-on-voyager.html) . How we keep in touch with this little spacehip that could--currently 141 AUs away from us [and counting](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/), as of April 30, 2018--is astonishing. As [NASA explains](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/did-you-know/) : The sensitivity of our deep-space tracking antennas located around the world is truly amazing. The antennas must capture Voyager information from a signal so weak that the power striking the antenna is only 10 exponent -16 watts (1 part in 10 quadrillion). A modern-day electronic digital watch operates at a power level 20 billion times greater than this feeble level. Alas, in spite of all this awesome science, Voyager 1's days are numbered. Its fuel is nearly spent. In just a few years... -# Forecasts: 115 -Stars: ★★★☆☆ - -Title: Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/953/will-mike-pence-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-in-2024/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 5% -Description: [Mike Pence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Pence) is the 48th vice president of the United States. He was previously the governor of Indiana and a member of the US House of Representatives. Some have [speculated](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/mike-pence-s-2024-presidential-campaign-has-already-begun) that Pence will run for president in 2024. Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024? This question resolves positive if Mike Pence wins the US presidency and is sworn into office by February of 2025. -# Forecasts: 213 -Stars: ★★★☆☆ - -Title: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 15% -Description: Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust ("Lock him up!"), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities. Donald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career. For him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last. 1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case). 2) He would have to be eligible to be indicted. This means that either a) he is no longer President, or b) it is decided that a sitting President can be indicted (a matter of legal controversy at the moment) 3) A prosecutor or grand jury would have to decide that he should be indicted. 4) He would have to be found guilty. 5) A judge would have to decide on a sentence that included time in jail. 6) The sentence starts before a pardon oc... -# Forecasts: 1158 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: Will cost-adjusted IT technology be worse than it was 8 years (32 quarters) ago in at least one quarter prior to 2030? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/968/will-cost-adjusted-it-technology-be-worse-than-it-was-8-years-32-quarters-ago-in-at-least-one-quarter-prior-to-2030/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 26% -Description: We often take the advance of IT technology for granted and even believe it to be progressing at an exponential rate. While Moore's Law has (by some definitions) continued to hold, the data economists have generated when they estimated [the amount of investment required to have equal quality IT equipment over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B935RG3Q086SBEA), reveals that in some sense progress has slowed down. While quality progress was exponential for a long time too, the last approximately ten years have not been all that great. The inverse of the linked-to index can be seen as a kind of estimation of the quality of information technology at a given time. (The predictor is encouraged to export the data into excel and look at the evolution of the inverse of the index and the percentage improvement over the last 8 years over time.) For example(s), the percentage increase in quality between Q1 1990 and Q1 1998 was 333.5%; the percentage increase in quality between Q1 2000 and ... -# Forecasts: 128 -Stars: ★★★☆☆ - -Title: When will commercial supersonic flight return? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/969/when-will-commercial-supersonic-flight-return/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: false -Percentage: none -Description: The last 115 years of humankind’s relationship with air travel has been mindboggling. On December 17, 1903, Orville and Wilbur Wright lifted off in the [fields of Kitty Hawk](https://airandspace.si.edu/exhibitions/wright-brothers/online/fly/1903/) . The era of human air travel was born. But skeptics abounded. Yes, we could fly. But could we fly fly? For instance, one famous early doubter told reporters in 1909 that “no airship will ever fly from New York to Paris.” The name of this skeptic? [Wilbur Wright himself!](http://blog.fastforwardlabs.com/2015/08/05/a-flying-machine-from-new-york-to-paris.html) Just 38 years later, American pilot and legendary daredevil, Chuck Yeager, broke the manned supersonic flight barrier in USAF aircraft #46-062, a.k.a. the [Glamorous Glennis](https://airandspace.si.edu/collection-objects/bell-x-1) . Wired Magazine offers some of the [juicy engineering details](https://www.wired.com/story/its-the-70th-anniversary-of-the-first-supersonic-flight/) of Yea... -# Forecasts: 268 -Stars: ★★★☆☆ - -Title: Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 23% -Description: While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins. In order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/) . It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that t... -# Forecasts: 545 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 67% -Description: Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval. In 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that. Canada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year. Will America follow by 2024? Resolution is positive if by start of 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US. -# Forecasts: 357 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: Any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1002/any-progress-in-human-lifespan-enhancement-by-2100/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 91% -Description: There have been great improvements in medical technology in the last few centuries, which has led to very significant increases in [life expectancy]( https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy) . Yet, while medical technology has stopped the vast majority of us dying young, it has not been very effective at increasing the maximum age that humans can live to. [Ramesses II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_II) lived to the age of 90, even though the life expectancy in ancient Egypt might have been below 30. Similarly, the English aristocracy between 1500-1550 already had a life expectancy of 71, meaning that quite a few of them will have lived into their 80s. The oldest person the world, as of the writing of this question, is aged 117. It is unclear whether anybody in the ancient world lived to a similar age (there were many claims of extreme age and very poor record keeping), but it certainly does not seem completely impossible. Recently, though, there have been attempts to actual... -# Forecasts: 300 -Stars: ★★★☆☆ - -Title: Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 26% -Description: Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. Will Roe vs. Wade be reversed? We specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy? Resolution is positive if, before the stipulated date, 1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds: 1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an aborti... -# Forecasts: 361 -Stars: ★★★★☆ - -Title: Will there be a city on Earth with a population of over 100 million by 2100? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1052/will-there-be-a-city-on-earth-with-a-population-of-over-100-million-by-2100/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 56.00000000000001% -Description: For a mostly hairless, fangless species that was likely reduced to [just a few thousand members](https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2012/10/22/163397584/how-human-beings-almost-vanished-from-earth-in-70-000-b-c) in relatively recent times by a volcano, we've certainly been busy. The human population on Earth now exceeds 7 billion. And we're still growing. [Not everyone](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rvuueqs3vI) is thrilled by this. But it's reality. Currently, as of Q2 2018, Tokyo, Japan is the world's largest metropolis, cramming [over 38,000,000 people](https://www.worldatlas.com/citypops.htm) (give or take) into its borders. But by the end of the century, we could (and probably will) witness far grander cities. Per Canadian demographers, Daniel Hoornweg and Kevin Pope, for instance, Lagos in Nigeria may swell to 100+M by 2100 if trends continue. Face 2 Face Africa has the story: By 2100 if Nigeria’s population continues to grow and people move to cities at the same rate as no... -# Forecasts: 270 -Stars: ★★★☆☆ - -Title: How long will the Great Pyramids be recognizable? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1056/how-long-will-the-great-pyramids-be-recognizable/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: false -Percentage: none -Description: The ancient pyramids of Egypt are ridiculously cool. Construction began over 4500 years ago, and these awesome structures, despite having [been raided](http://www.ancient-egypt-online.com/ancient-egypt-tomb-robbers.html) over the centuries and stripped of their beautiful [white limestone](https://www.fastcodesign.com/3037815/the-great-pyramid-used-to-be-so-shiny-it-glowed) exteriors, inspire millions. Rebuilding them would be a massive project, although it probably could be done for a cool [$5 billion](https://www.livescience.com/18589-cost-build-great-pyramid-today.html) or so--for just the Great Pyramid of Giza, that is. They've lasted 5 millennia, and they will almost certainly endure after every human alive today is long dead. But the pyramids will not last forever. As this [Quora post](https://www.quora.com/If-humanity-died-today-how-long-would-the-pyramids-of-Giza-last) notes: The Rocky mountains in the US were formed over ~70 million years, ~70 million years ago. If geologic pr... -# Forecasts: 198 -Stars: ★★★☆☆ - -Title: Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered "under serious threat" by 2040? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1058/will-humanity-essentially-run-out-of-at-least-one-element-currently-considered-under-serious-threat-by-2040/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 34% -Description: In 2008, science fiction author, Robert Silverberg, penned a provocative web essay, [The Death of Galium](https://web.archive.org/web/20080704170435/http://www.asimovs.com/_issue_0806/ref.shtml), that predicted that we would collectively run out of several essential, rare elements within a single decade. Per Silverberg: The element gallium is in very short supply and the world may well run out of it in just a few years. Indium is threatened too, says Armin Reller, a materials chemist at Germany’s University of Augsburg. He estimates that our planet’s stock of indium will last no more than another decade. All the hafnium will be gone by 2017 also, and another twenty years will see the extinction of zinc. Even copper is an endangered item, since worldwide demand for it is likely to exceed available supplies by the end of the present century. Silverberg's dire fears have not (yet!) come to pass, but the [American Chemical Society (ACS)](https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/greenchemistry/re... -# Forecasts: 183 -Stars: ★★★☆☆ - -Title: Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1059/before-2051-will-a-meteor-cause-more-injuries-than-the-one-that-shook-chelyabinsk-russia-in-2013/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 50% -Description: In February, 2013, a meteor [scorched](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggLTPyRXUKc) the Russian skies. EarthSky gives the [key details](http://earthsky.org/space/meteor-asteroid-chelyabinsk-russia-feb-15-2013) : A small asteroid with an estimated size of 65 feet... was moving at 12 miles per second (~19 km/sec) when it struck the protective blanket of air around our planet, which did its job and caused the asteroid to explode. The bright, hot explosion took place only about 20 miles (30 km) above the city of Chelyabinsk in Russia and carried 20 to 30 times the energy of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Its shock wave broke windows and knocked down parts of buildings in six Russian cities and caused some 1,500 people to seek medical attention for injuries, mostly from flying glass. It's only a matter of time before more space rocks as big as (or bigger than) the one that caused the Chelyabinsk Event find their way to Earth. Before 2051-01-01, will an event cause more injuries than the Chelya... -# Forecasts: 36 -Stars: ★★☆☆☆ - -Title: Will there be a 9 foot tall human by 2075? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1061/will-there-be-a-9-foot-tall-human-by-2075/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 21% -Description: Born in 1918, Robert Wadlow grew to enormous size and scraped the skies at 8' 11" thanks to hormonal issue that tragically also led to a cacade of health problems. He died in 1940 of consequences from an infection. Other people have crested the 8' tall mark, but they are few and far between, and no one's come close to Wadlow's record, at least according to the [officials at Guinness](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/tallest-man-ever/) . Can people ever grow to 9 feet tall or even beyond? This [article from The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2004/may/06/thisweekssciencequestions3) points out that: Normally, the growth of our bones is limited by our sex hormones. A good burst of sex hormones at the right time tells the ends of our bones to stop growing. In acromegalic gigantism, as the tumour grows, it destroys cells in the pituitary gland that stimulate the release of sex hormones. The bones, therefore, never get the signal to stop growing. But surely th... -# Forecasts: 223 -Stars: ★★★☆☆ - -Title: When will the student loan debt bubble "pop"? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1085/when-will-the-student-loan-debt-bubble-pop/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: false -Percentage: none -Description: It's an open secret that student loan debts are crippling millions of Americans – particularly Millennials. [CNBC estimated](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/15/heres-how-much-the-average-student-loan-borrower-owes-when-they-graduate.html) that nearly 3 out of 4 college grads leave school "with a significant amount of loans" and estimates that Americans have around $1.5 trillion in student debt, collectively. That's "trillion" with a "T". See [this link for additional up-to-date numbers.](https://careerswiki.com/student-loan-debt-statistics/) In November 2017, Rolling Stone columnist Matt Taibbi reported on the crisis in [apocalyptic terms](https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/taibbi-the-great-college-loan-swindle-w510880) : The average amount of debt for a student leaving school is skyrocketing even faster than the rate of tuition increase. In 2016, for instance, the average amount of debt for an exiting college graduate was a staggering $37,172. That's a rise of six percent o... -# Forecasts: 154 -Stars: ★★★☆☆ - -Title: When will the last member of our species, homo sapiens, be born? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1088/when-will-the-last-member-of-our-species-homo-sapiens-be-born/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: false -Percentage: none -Description: The scientific definition of "species" is surprisingly complicated. As this [November 2017 article](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/defining-species-fuzzy-art) from Science News explains: At first glance, “species” is a basic vocabulary word schoolchildren can ace on a test by reciting something close to: a group of living things that create fertile offspring when mating with each other but not when mating with outsiders. Ask scientists who devote careers to designating those species, however, and there’s no typical answer. Scientists do not agree. For the sake of this question, though, let's just go with [this definition from Berkeley](https://evolution.berkeley.edu/evolibrary/article/evo_41) : "a group of individuals that actually or potentially interbreed in nature." Evolution marches on relentlessly. We homo sapiens – even armed with our technology and collective stored-and-shared wisdom--are not immune to this ceaseless force. At some point, our descendants will be so physica... -# Forecasts: 201 -Stars: ★★★☆☆ - -Title: Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 38% -Description: On November 22, 1963, Lee Harvey Oswald shot President John F. Kennedy in Dallas as he proceeded down the street in a motorcade. Kennedy died shortly thereafter, and the nation descended into mourning. The [JFK assassination](https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/November-22-1963-Death-of-the-President.aspx) not only led to countless conspiracy theories, but it also led to better Presidential security measures. JFK was the last President killed in office. But he wasn't the first. Our nation's checkered history has witnessed a disturbing number of assassinations, including: --- John Wilkes Booth famously killed [President Abraham Lincoln](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/john-wilkes-booth-shoots-abraham-lincoln) on April 14, 1865. --- Charles J. Guiteau shot and killed [President James Garfield](http://americanhistory.si.edu/presidency/3d1d.html) on September 19, 1881. --- Leon Czolgosz, an anarchist, shot [President William McKinley](http://www.historynet.com/pre... -# Forecasts: 277 -Stars: ★★★☆☆ - -Title: Will Ray Kurzweil be proven right? -URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1321/will-ray-kurzweil-be-proven-right/ -Platform: Metaculus -Binary question?: true -Percentage: 25% -Description: Ray Kurzweil is an author, computer scientist, inventor and futurist. He is best known for making what many consider to be extremely optimistic prediction about the future of technology that involve exponential growth leading up to [technological singularity]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity), which Kurzweil predicts will happen circa. 2045. A list of Kurzweil's predictions can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil) . It is asked: Will Ray Kurzweil be proven generally right in his predictions? Note that the question refers to Kurzweil's predictions as of the time of the the writing of the question. Given that 'generally right' is hard to define, the question shall use consensus forming to create its own answer.
For this grant, we are recording the following forecasts:
Confidence | Prediction | By Time |
---|---|---|
25% | OFTW moves more than $2.5 million to GiveWell top charities in 2020. | End of 2020 |
15% | Conditioned on it still being active, OFTW moves more than $5 million to GiveWell top charities in 2023. | End of 2023 |
75% | We renew our support to OFTW after one year. | September 2019 |
50% | We renew our support to OFTW after two years. | September 2020 |
We are experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of the probability of events related to our decision-making (especially grant-making). The idea behind this is to pull out the implicit predictions that are playing a role in our decisions, and to make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those predictions were. For this grant, Josh Rosenberg, our senior research analyst who led GiveWell's investigation of Zusha!, records the following forecasts:
We are experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of the probability of events related to our decision-making (especially grant-making). The idea behind this is to pull out the implicit predictions that are playing a role in our decisions, and to make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those predictions were. For this grant, we are recording the following forecasts:
For this grant, we are recording the following forecasts:
We are experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of the probability of events related to our decision-making (especially grant-making). The idea behind this is to pull out the implicit predictions that are playing a role in our decisions, and to make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those predictions were. For this grant, we are recording the following forecasts:
We are experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of the probability of events related to our decision-making (especially grant-making). The purpose of this exercise is to record the implicit predictions that inform our decisions and to make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those predictions were. For this grant, we are recording the forecasts below, all of which we consider to be fairly rough. Except where otherwise noted, the end date for all predictions is the end of 2020.
We are experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of the probability of events related to our decision-making (especially grant-making). The idea behind this is to pull out the implicit predictions that are playing a role in our decisions, and to make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate our past predictions were. For this grant, we are recording the following forecasts (made during our decision process):
Top charity predictions
Cost-effectiveness predictions
Charity predictions
We are experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of the probability of events related to our decision-making (especially grant-making). The purpose of this exercise is to record the implicit predictions that inform our decisions, and to make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those predictions were. For this grant, we are recording the following forecasts:
We are experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of the probability of events related to our decision-making (especially grant-making). The idea behind this is to pull out the implicit predictions that are playing a role in our decisions, and to make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those predictions were. For this grant, we are recording the following forecast:
For this grant, we are recording the following forecasts:
We’re experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of events related to our decisionmaking (especially grantmaking). The idea behind this is to pull out the implicit predictions that are playing a role in our decisions, and make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those are. For this grant, we are recording the following forecasts:
This grant could fail to have the effects we hope for in a number of ways:
(We’re experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of events related to our decisionmaking, especially grantmaking. The idea behind this is to pull out the implicit predictions that are playing a role in our decisions, and make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those are.)
", - "Stars": "★★★☆☆" - }, - { - "Title": "Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation ("Phase 2")", - "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts", - "Platform": "GiveWell", - "Binary question?": false, - "Percentage": "none", - "Description": "For this grant, we are recording the following forecasts:
Confidence | Prediction | By Time |
---|---|---|
60% | GiveWell’s best guess is that Evidence Action’s intervention increases coverage relative to the counterfactual in the first year of Phase 2 of the program by at least 4 percentage points | December 2021 |
50% | GiveWell’s best guess is that Evidence Action’s intervention increases coverage relative to the counterfactual in the second year of Phase 2 of the program by at least 8 percentage points (cumulatively) | December 2021 |
75% | Evidence Action requests funding for Phase 3 of this program because it believes Phase 2 to have been successful | December 2021 |
80% | Estimates of anemia rates from the India National Family Health Survey in an average of 5 randomly chosen non-Evidence Action-supported states do not show anemia declining by more than 2 percentage points per year over the last 5 years (e.g., due to iron fortification or other changes) | January 2024 |
35% | Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we retrospectively model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers (using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline) | January 2025 |
We plan to follow up with the gift recipient roughly every six months to check in on the timeline for receiving results from this study. At this stage, our understanding is that Wave 1 results will be available by mid-2018 and Wave 2 results will be available by mid-2019. We are uncertain when results will be able to be shared publicly, but aim to write publicly about the results as soon as we are able to.
We also plan to follow up with the recipient to share their pre-analysis plan publicly and, when the study is completed, to share data publicly.
We’re experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of events related to our decisionmaking (especially grantmaking). The idea behind this is to pull out the implicit predictions that are playing a role in our decisions, and make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those are. For this gift, we are recording the following forecasts:
Professor Miguel told us the following about the power of the study:
\"We assume the same distribution of consumption per capita as in KLPS-3 (the data we shared with your group), and the same intra-cluster correlation (0.037). In the full proposed sample of 5-6k, the MDE (with standard 80% power and 5% significance level) is 14 log points, i.e., roughly a 14% gain in consumption per capita.\"