diff --git a/data/old/astralcodexten-questions.json b/data/old/astralcodexten-questions.json
deleted file mode 100644
index cee9e5e..0000000
--- a/data/old/astralcodexten-questions.json
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,2555 +0,0 @@
-[
- {
- "title": "Data processing errors are between 5% and 100% as important and methodological problems when explaining bad studies",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/3c56c70a-c78c-43c6-84ef-6cbd173cc748",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
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- {
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- "name": "No",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- }
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- {
- "title": "Fraud is between >1% and 5% as important as methodological problems when explaining bad studies",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/81343104-09c2-4e18-b751-db0d2fccd35a",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Parasitic worms are a significant confounder in some ivermectin studies, such that they made them get a positive result even when honest and methodologically sound",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/375d3ad1-32fd-4449-bc6d-badc31eba659",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- {
- "title": "Ivermectin doesn’t reduce mortality in COVID a significant amount (let’s say d > 0.3) in the absence of comorbid parasites: 85-90% confidence",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/d8a19d54-97d3-4cec-ae37-facf1e004ae1",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.87,
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- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.13,
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "I post my scores on these predictions before 3/1/22",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/2a0a34fe-b7c7-4a51-8295-9907445ccfee",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.29000000000000004,
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "I double my current amount of money ($1000) on PredictIt",
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- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "I have a queue of fewer than ten extra posts",
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- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31499999999999995,
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "I finish and post the CO2 essay I'm working on",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/aa0c67c8-b0ea-462e-a99d-25ac9117793a",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.82,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.18000000000000005,
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "I finish and post the climate change essay I'm working on",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/a8c27b30-2617-4976-8b32-591b0277e421",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.82,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.18000000000000005,
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "I finish and post the culture wars essay I'm working on",
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- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.905,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09499999999999997,
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "stars": 3
- }
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- {
- "title": "By end of year, some other post beats NYT commentary for my most popular post",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/98a5026e-c90e-44c1-b6ef-12000be948a3",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 3
- }
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- {
- "title": "I run a normal ACX survey (must start, but not necessarily finish, before end of year)",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/ba53c8ce-ae87-48f3-a4eb-7f67911ab114",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.89,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.10999999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 3
- }
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- {
- "title": "I run an ACX reader survey",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/706ae53c-2d87-4dac-8011-18e1a2605ed8",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.565,
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- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.43500000000000005,
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "[redacted] wins the book review contest",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/63f7a4a1-f6ca-4174-bcf5-08b35759a8d9",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 4,
- "stars": 3
- }
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- {
- "title": "I've written at least five chapters of some non-Unsong book I hope to publish",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/6a054535-cbe5-4656-86b8-6370e71b403b",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.365,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.635,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 3
- }
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- {
- "title": "Unsong is published",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/70f977b5-17b7-4635-a3a3-597a95b184f0",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.105,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.895,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "I've started and am at least 25% of the way through the formal editing process for Unsong",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/c9471266-1b50-4c94-aaa2-ddf4dc6b2fc8",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.265,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.735,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "I've read and reviewed at least two more dictator books",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/ae3fe71f-7e98-4e55-8009-85d0525dbf90",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.485,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.515,
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "I've read and reviewed Scout Mindset",
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- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.68,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31999999999999995,
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "I've read and reviewed Nixonland",
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- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.715,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.28500000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "I've read and reviewed How Asia Works",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/3920f55c-13b3-403c-a21d-4fa1d0410ae3",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.08999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 3
- }
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- {
- "title": "I subscribe to at least 5 new Substacks (so total of 8)",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/67704cd7-baf8-4328-826c-a333e812eca1",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.195,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8049999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 3
- }
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- {
- "title": "There is another article primarily about SSC/ACX/me in a major news source",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/240c60fd-10ea-40b2-9a78-67b3f1c62582",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "[redacted]",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/15ddf814-1241-4ad2-b38d-49fde3efc807",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 2,
- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "[redacted]",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/1fe2c460-7869-46f1-b102-d3f9333db2b2",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 2,
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "[redacted]",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/39b844b5-62a1-48e3-b5ae-370eb1bdf6bb",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 2,
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "ACX is earning more money than it is right now",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/55a247e6-3d77-4315-a2a1-3962304563b7",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.685,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31499999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "I have changed my pricing scheme",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/b8d1c023-e016-4410-9948-f671cfee4ecf",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.165,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.835,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "I have switched medical records systems",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/3ea13b6e-7513-4c99-bdbf-8b94d00919f2",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.165,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.835,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "[redacted]",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/c278967e-e0d1-411c-885f-ed2f117b8d47",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "title": "[redacted]",
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- "name": "No",
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- {
- "title": "[redacted]",
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- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
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- },
- {
- "title": "[redacted]",
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- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
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- {
- "name": "No",
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- },
- {
- "title": "[redacted]",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/e5e44e00-420c-42ef-b919-743fccc86bb6",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- {
- "name": "No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
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- {
- "title": "I've written at least ten more Lorien writeups (so total at least 27)",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/91bff842-c822-4233-abe5-7e18e5cf1869",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.745,
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- },
- {
- "title": "Lorien has 200+ patients",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/fe797899-e469-486c-9a52-27ad8601ed34",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- {
- "name": "No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- },
- {
- "title": "Lorien has 150+ patients",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/a3044d69-507f-4af7-85f9-712a8c134306",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- {
- "name": "No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "Lorien has 100+ patients",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/ed8cc100-160e-4590-bd91-f65cbba12a87",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.91,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.08999999999999997,
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
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- },
- {
- "title": "I make/retweet at least 25 tweets between now and 2022",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/59ec5375-5fef-4ab8-95be-c97d848a9eb8",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.705,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.29500000000000004,
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "The Twitter account I check most frequently isn't one of the five I check frequently now",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/bdd5df97-5ac4-4740-ae19-d418ba7d2dcf",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
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- {
- "title": "[redacted]",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/f21fe391-8301-4892-b7c9-fe78a32e7c29",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "No",
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- {
- "title": "I do at least six new biohacking experiments in the next eight months",
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- "name": "No",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "I take some substance I haven't discovered yet at least 5 times in Q4 2021 (testing exempted)",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/ce228665-de71-4ad7-8454-084c62863737",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.745,
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- },
- {
- "title": "I take oroxylum at least 5 times in Q4 2021",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/2cc060c3-309e-45e1-9c10-b12a89a4538f",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.395,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.605,
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- }
- },
- {
- "title": "I meditate at least 15 days in Q4 2021",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/ba9ca99c-842b-4d9b-b106-3b5598e573e0",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.565,
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- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.43500000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "I continue my current exercise routine (and get through an entire cycle of it) in Q4 2021",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/f3f95d58-fa74-41f8-8d95-bd5fa0726abd",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
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- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- },
- {
- "title": "I spend at least a month living somewhere other than the Bay",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/f5103a1c-ea8f-4b7b-a4e4-c7b91307c40d",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.465,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5349999999999999,
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "I go on at least one international trip",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/4274ad0b-e07c-4710-8a75-2b95f1caa063",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.595,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.405,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "I'm playing in a D&D campaign",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/403bea2e-dfdf-42b1-af37-2cd49a7f7fe3",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.695,
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- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30500000000000005,
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "I can hear / get annoyed by neighbor TV noise",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/c178169b-fea9-47ee-bb9b-e78a06f658f4",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.355,
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- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.645,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "I live in the top bedroom",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/03778d46-31d5-45b0-b4ee-b2c9bed533c7",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
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- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- }
- },
- {
- "title": "I live in the new house",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/8fa0b1be-a038-46e4-aa70-f45e7697ce13",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.945,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.05500000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "There are no appraisal-related complications to the new house purchase",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/4ef5ae83-579e-492f-bb42-1cdff2f388e0",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.555,
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- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44499999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "[redacted]",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/e2949383-dfa7-48f4-916f-f038ffc26174",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 2,
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- }
- },
- {
- "title": "[redacted]",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/9cee552f-fa3c-4944-bd01-8286dbce7175",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
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- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "[redacted]",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/a4ed2c7b-ea9b-4de0-a5e7-bbcbd9c859f2",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "[redacted]",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/f6a7e9c9-7b9f-49de-a004-bacb188cc63b",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 2,
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "[redacted]",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/ea103b92-3f90-491b-92e9-a6a24a1c8ff7",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 2,
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "[redacted]",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/9026b06f-49d6-49b1-aa0a-29437391b981",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 2,
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "At least seven days my house is orange or worse on PurpleAir.com because of fires",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/847c55a7-9429-4d3d-b7c8-f88fb239fa93",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "[redacted]",
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- {
- "title": "Google widely allows remote work, no questions asked",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/8aad0c51-d312-4f1b-ab9c-9ae03f499996",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.205,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.795,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Unemployment above 5%",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/3150e09f-e3f6-401b-98ac-e57b8996712b",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.485,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.515,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Dow above 37.5K",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/a06cce7e-edb3-4018-8c09-99edb7053662",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.405,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.595,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 5,
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Dow above 35K",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/f70d4290-c245-4ca0-a84f-fa1f8f8d6e57",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 5,
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Ethereum above 0.05 BTC",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/171c05ad-a009-4ea9-a11e-55aadd2cc1dc",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.695,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30500000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Ethereum above 5K",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/5a6118c1-bfde-4846-96a1-8c3d8889447e",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Bitcoin above 100K",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/66287566-4447-4513-aa17-e27f691eb1ed",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.195,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8049999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 8,
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Gamestop stock price still above $100",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/42221c62-06f9-4779-a844-41f8759aaf26",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.43999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Prospera has at least 1000 residents",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/a14db0ca-fd63-4c87-a097-1e76de540f96",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 5.5,
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 50 years) in China/Taiwan conflict",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/950e80ff-3b9e-4a71-8df9-16e06b8a34a3",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.045,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.955,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.175Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 5,
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 10 years) in Israel/Palestine conflict",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/9d40c0d0-c9fa-479a-95ec-c1c525230fa5",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.075,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.925,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.175Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine war",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/109b7b87-543d-4df7-8137-f58e2aaea0e7",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.255,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.175Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Tokyo Olympics happen on schedule",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/091ba247-070e-4523-be8d-2f53e83e11c4",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.175Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 4,
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Trump is allowed back on Twitter",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/6e62aaf4-c4c9-4b21-a4c1-23b2698ea30f",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.085,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.915,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.175Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Significant capital gains tax hike (above 30% for highest bracket)",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/ef192cb7-9d16-496a-99ca-acac2769b896",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.215,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.785,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.175Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "At least $250 million in damage from BLM protests this year",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/9f13515d-f7cf-4747-9353-46fd2f3d7d31",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.175Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Newsom recalled as CA governor",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/33dd0e76-96ef-4404-9fc5-c653e57b35b5",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.215,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.785,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.175Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 7,
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Yang is New York mayor",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/5a8c9c64-517a-4c12-bea3-2fa72ea44307",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.625,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.375,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.175Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Court packing is clearly going to happen (new justices don't have to be appointed by end of year)",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/68a7b974-31d6-4277-81f3-94c22dd8619f",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.055,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.945,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.175Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Biden approval rating (as per 538) is greater than 50%",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/a3ea3584-59b9-44e9-a936-be8065138a17",
- "platform": "AstralCodexTen",
- "description": "...by the end of 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.175Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 3
- }
- }
-]
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/old/betfair-questions.json b/data/old/betfair-questions.json
deleted file mode 100644
index 0637a08..0000000
--- a/data/old/betfair-questions.json
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1 +0,0 @@
-[]
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/old/csetforetell-questions.json b/data/old/csetforetell-questions.json
deleted file mode 100644
index 1614297..0000000
--- a/data/old/csetforetell-questions.json
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,900 +0,0 @@
-[
- {
- "title": "Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/125-will-the-chinese-people-s-liberation-army-pla-seize-control-of-any-taiwanese-occupied-features-in-the-south-china-sea-before-july-1-2021",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Context. Tensions between Taiwan and China have been particularly high in 2020 (CFR, BBC). China had previously aimed for peaceful reunification with Taiwan. In May 2020, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang dropped the term “peaceful” from a speech, apparently reflecting shifting policies on the island (Reuters). Throughout 2020, China has stepped up activities in the East and South China Sea (Al Jazeera, IISS) with some media reporting of an imminent invasion of Taiwan (Express, Forbes). In the Annual Report to Congress, the the Office of the Secretary of Defence state that an invasion of Taiwan would be a “significant political and military risk” but “China could launch an invasion of small Taiwan-occupied islands in the South China Sea such as Pratas or Itu Aba” (Department of Defense). In August 2020, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted military exercises off the Pratas islands to “simulate seizing the Pratas Islands” (Taipei Times). Foreign Policy assessed an invasion of Taiwan by China was unlikely, while The Diplomat suggests China’s military activity represents the end state of a failed strategy, not an imminent attack. Taiwan’s current features include the Pratas Islands and Itu Aba Island (CSIS). The control of a feature in the South China Sea would indicate a serious escalation within the region which will be of interest to the international community. The July 1 2021 represents the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Resolution details. The outcome of this question will be determined by reputable media reporting or official statements. Seizing would involve an invasion, conquest, and control of a feature by Chinese military forces, lasting more than 24 hours. The question will resolve once control has been held for 24 hours, irrespective of how long that control is maintained after that period. ***\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:14.639Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "85",
- "numforecasters": "73",
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/126-will-china-sign-an-official-agreement-on-establishing-a-future-military-base-in-the-pacific-ocean-before-december-31-2021",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Context. Chinese military basing in the Pacific has been an acute concern for US, Australian and New Zealand military planners for some time. China has made political and economic inroads into the Pacific islands for years and recent ‘covid diplomacy’ has generated new political capital (Eurasian Times). China came close in 2018 as it discussed co-developing four major ports and eventually a military base in Papua New Guinea, including at Lombrum Naval Base on Manus Island. There was also speculation of a proposed military base on Vanuatu (Reuters), which China denied (Guardian).The signing of an official agreement between one of more Pacific nations would be seen as a significant development in this area, which would be of interest to many teams.Resolution details. The outcome of this question will be determined on any official announcement or reputable media reporting that an agreement has been reached to establish a Chinese military base in the Pacific Ocean.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:17.431Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "52",
- "numforecasters": "46",
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/123-what-percentage-of-software-engineer-job-postings-between-july-1-and-september-30-2021-inclusive-will-allow-for-remote-work",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3. You can view those forecasts here. A version of the question issued for 2021 Q1 was voided due to an error in the reported historical data. You can view the voided question here.Context. COVID-19 is reshaping the global economy by leading to an increase in jobs that can be performed remotely. A remote tech industry would have different properties than a non-remote tech industry. Most significantly, location would be a less of a constraint on where people work and who companies hire. For more on this metric, see the related metric analysis: \"Tech Jobs Are Going Remote; UK Leads the Way.\"Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Burning Glass data available as of October 1, 2021. It includes all countries for which Burning Glass has data: the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore.The data for 2021 Q1 includes data only through March 9. We will update the graph to reflect the final three weeks of 2021 Q1 in early April. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 5.5%",
- "probability": 0.11320000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%",
- "probability": 0.1975,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.2779,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1925,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 12%",
- "probability": 0.2189,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:20.424Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "97",
- "numforecasters": "82",
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/122-will-hu-chunhua-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Xi Jinping, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and top-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. But given the opaque nature of intra-Party negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from the current Politburo.Hu Chunhua has been seen for many years as a rising star in Chinese politics. He serves on the Politburo as one of four Vice Premiers of the State Council, the administrative leadership group of the Chinese central government. He is the youngest Politburo member (he will turn 59 in 2022) and is the only Vice Premier not due to retire in 2022. The current Premier (and number-two ranked PBSC member), Li Keqiang, is constitutionally barred from serving another term, and, since the late 1980s, a new Premier has always been selected from among the serving Vice Premiers. Hu could secure a place on the next PBSC as the next Premier. But Xi’s personalized power and preference for elevating political allies has cast doubt on the persistence of previous norms. Hu is not seen as close to Xi, and his political rise is linked to the once-powerful but now-weakened Communist Youth League faction. Xi may want to block Hu’s ascension to the PBSC or be accepting of Hu taking a PBSC position below that of Premier. If Hu became Premier, it could be a signal that Xi faces intra-Party checks on his power.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.29,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:23.231Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "26",
- "numforecasters": "23",
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/120-will-li-keqiang-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Li Keqiang has been the second-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and has served as Premier of the State Council since March 2013. He is ranked behind paramount leader Xi Jinping, who serves as the Party’s General Secretary and is President of China and Chairman of the Central Military Commission.During the 1990s and 2000s, Li and Xi were both rising stars. Xi was from an elite political family and gained the favor of former leader Jiang Zemin, while Li’s base was the now-weakened Communist Youth League that nurtured Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao. Xi proved more popular with Party elites but factional balancing within the Party saw Li win the number-two position. Li is constitutionally barred from serving another five-year term as Premier. But he will only be 67 years old in 2022, and so will fall within the customary upper age bound of 67 for appointment to a new PBSC term. Given that it’s uncommon for such a senior leader to retire early, it's possible that Li will remain on the PBSC but take a different role.Xi is expected to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. If Li retires, it will be another sign of Xi’s consolidation of personalized political power, which has come at the expense of other factional networks within the Party. If Li remains on the PBSC, it could be a sign that other power groupings exist that are influential enough to at least require some degree of placation by Xi, or that Xi still feels at least partially constrained by factional norms.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:25.848Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "23",
- "numforecasters": "19",
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/121-will-chen-min-er-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Xi Jinping, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and top-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. But given the opaque nature of intra-Party negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from the current Politburo.Chen Min’er is tipped by some analysts as a major figure in the next generation of Chinese political leaders. He turns 62 in 2022 and so will be young enough to serve two PBSC terms under prevailing norms. He sits on the Politburo as Party Secretary of Chongqing, a position that was a launching pad for many former PBSC leaders. And he is seen as a protégé of Xi (who often promotes people he knows personally), having worked as director of the provincial propaganda department when Xi was Zhejiang Party Secretary from 2002-2007. But Chen will have to compete with other hopefuls and avoid any impression that he poses a threat to Xi’s authority.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.82,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:28.960Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "20",
- "numforecasters": "18",
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the \"Big 5\" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/118-how-many-new-h-1b-visa-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fiscal-year-2022",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. The mean crowd forecast for that question is 8,122. You can view those forecasts here.Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants. It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on \"initial approvals\" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2021. The fiscal year is October 1 through September 30. The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The \"Big 5\" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 7,500",
- "probability": 0.0418,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1286,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500",
- "probability": 0.3054,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500",
- "probability": 0.30820000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 13,500",
- "probability": 0.2161,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:31.766Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "49",
- "numforecasters": "40",
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/116-how-many-postings-for-u-s-jobs-requiring-machine-learning-skills-will-be-published-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3 and 2021 Q1. You can view those forecasts here and here. For 2020 Q3, the answer was 39,364 and the median crowd forecast was 37,271. We will add the resolution for the 2021 Q1 question as soon as the data is available. Context. Job postings reflect the priorities and expectations of employers. They provide hints about future research and development. Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Burning Glass Technologies. The date of a job posting is the date Burning Glass retrieves the data. The question resolves when CSET receives Burning Glass data through December 31, 2021. Through February 2021, 34,663 U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills were posted, which puts the first half of 2021 on pace for 106,328 job postings. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 70,000",
- "probability": 0.1252,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.33140000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000",
- "probability": 0.3232,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000",
- "probability": 0.16579999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 130,000",
- "probability": 0.054400000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:34.995Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "89",
- "numforecasters": "73",
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/117-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2022",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 and 2021. The crowd's mean forecast for 2020 was $506 billion, and the correct answer was $560.1 billion. The crowd's mean forecast for 2021 is $524 billion. You can view those forecasts here and here. Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $400 billion",
- "probability": 0.0729,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.16760000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion",
- "probability": 0.5379999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion",
- "probability": 0.2029,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $775 billion",
- "probability": 0.018600000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:38.073Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "36",
- "numforecasters": "30",
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/114-what-will-the-combined-revenue-of-alphabet-amazon-apple-facebook-and-microsoft-be-in-the-second-half-of-2021",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Previous version. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The median forecast for the first half of 2021 was $557 billion. Although that question has not yet resolved, based on data for the second half of 2020 -- $631 billion -- big tech revenue appears to be increasing ahead of the crowd's predictions. You can view those forecasts here.Context. Even as the economic crisis deepened, large tech companies have have demonstrated resilience, beating Wall Street Analysts’ expectations. Data and Resolution Details. This question resolves based on the 10-Q filings of Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., and Microsoft Inc. It resolves when these companies’ 10-Q filings for the fourth quarter of 2021 are publicly available. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $470 billion",
- "probability": 0.050199999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.133,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion",
- "probability": 0.245,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion",
- "probability": 0.31420000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $680 billion",
- "probability": 0.2576,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:49:59.269Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "84",
- "numforecasters": "72",
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The final crowd forecast was 11%. The probability generally declined during the period the question was open. You can view that question and the results here. A variation on this question was also issued for Summer 2020. You can view that question and the results here. Context. The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. \"Fires upon\" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming.***This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:02.644Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "144",
- "numforecasters": "109",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/115-will-xi-jingping-be-general-secretary-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party will elect a new 370-member Central Committee at its next quinquennial National Congress, likely in October or November 2022. Immediately after this Party Congress, the new 20th Central Committee will hold a plenary meeting that selects the Party’s General Secretary for the incoming five-year term.The General Secretary chairs the Central Committee’s top 25-member Politburo and the Politburo’s elite seven-member Standing Committee. Since the early 1990s, the General Secretary has concurrently served as President of the People’s Republic of China and Chairperson of the Central Military Commission. The General Secretary is thus the “paramount leader” of the three sectors of regime power: the Party, the State, and the People’s Liberation Army.Xi Jinping became General Secretary after the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and was reselected for a second term at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. When Xi began his tenure the expectation both within the Party and among domestic and international observes of China was that he would follow the succession norm set by his predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin of stepping down as leader after serving two full five-year terms.But since coming to power, Xi has reversed the Party’s previous trend toward “collective leadership” and become the powerful “core leader” of a far more personalized political set-up. Xi has crippled rival power centers in the Party, elevated close associates to key leadership positions, centralized policymaking authority in “leading small groups” that he chairs, and asserted unparalleled authority over the armed forces and security services. These developments have led many observers to argue that Xi will secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary at the 20th Party Congress. In March 2018, China’s legislature amended the State Constitution to delete a two-term limit for Presidents of the People’s Republic, removing the only formal barrier to Xi serving as paramount leader indefinitely.Other analysts warn that Xi’s position is more precarious because of the backlash generated by policies that target rival elites, suppress civil society, and potentially slow China’s growth. Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would also have to win exemption from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. The next General Secretary should be announced in the communique of the First Plenary Meeting of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, likely in October or November 2022.***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:04.965Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "195",
- "numforecasters": "135",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/111-how-much-funding-will-private-u-s-tech-companies-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is \"private\" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: \"Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?\"\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $40 billion",
- "probability": 0.0528,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.2522,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion",
- "probability": 0.4056,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion",
- "probability": 0.21719999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $100 billion",
- "probability": 0.0722,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:08.571Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "57",
- "numforecasters": "46",
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/110-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: \"Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?\"\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $13 billion",
- "probability": 0.0332,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1223,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion",
- "probability": 0.42450000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion",
- "probability": 0.32030000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $25 billion",
- "probability": 0.09970000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:11.711Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "59",
- "numforecasters": "45",
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued conditional on Trump not being convicted. A sister question was conditioned on Trump being convicted. After Trump was not convicted, we voided the sister question and removed the condition from this question. As of the Senate's vote on conviction, the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump's conviction was 0.1244; the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump not being convicted -- this question -- was 0.0718. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for \"incitement of insurrection,\" setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a \"Trump Effect\" in which \"the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump.\" \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than -0.25",
- "probability": 0.19329999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.3189,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25",
- "probability": 0.29960000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5",
- "probability": 0.1467,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 0.5",
- "probability": 0.0414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:15.073Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "150",
- "numforecasters": "111",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an \"AI contract\" if BGOV classified it in the \"Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning\" market. It's a \"research\" contract if it has a \"Research and Development\" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $200 million",
- "probability": 0.0506,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.19329999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million",
- "probability": 0.35350000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million",
- "probability": 0.254,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $650 million",
- "probability": 0.14859999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:17.888Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "115",
- "numforecasters": "92",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an \"AI grant\" if the abstract mentions either \"artificial intelligence\" or \"machine learning.\" The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $30 million",
- "probability": 0.0492,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.3036,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million",
- "probability": 0.3403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million",
- "probability": 0.2051,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $150 million",
- "probability": 0.1018,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:20.697Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "144",
- "numforecasters": "114",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an \"AI\" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 26,000",
- "probability": 0.031,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.0981,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000",
- "probability": 0.2158,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000",
- "probability": 0.3145,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 32,000",
- "probability": 0.3406,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:23.822Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "73",
- "numforecasters": "45",
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, \"Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol.\"The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a \"bargaining unit\" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, \"workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract.\" Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. ***\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 800",
- "probability": 0.1282,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 800 and 4,000",
- "probability": 0.4506,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000",
- "probability": 0.2904,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000",
- "probability": 0.1013,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 100,000",
- "probability": 0.0296,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:27.167Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "157",
- "numforecasters": "103",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term \"artificial intelligence\"; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms \"privacy\" and \"security.\" The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 0.45%",
- "probability": 0.0484,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1732,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%",
- "probability": 0.2768,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%",
- "probability": 0.2242,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 1.2%",
- "probability": 0.2774,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:37.154Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "67",
- "numforecasters": "55",
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that \"China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones.\"The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.***\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.57,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:40.350Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "153",
- "numforecasters": "90",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. The top five SME companies globally are: United States: Applied Materials; Lam Research; KLA Japan: Tokyo Electron Netherlands: ASML Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the companies' quarterly and annual public filings through the quarter ending December 31, 2021. At that date, we expect to have data for all five companies through all of 2021 with the exception that we'll have data for KLA only through June 30, 2020. As of December 3, 2020, the figure for 2020 in the graph below includes the following: Lam Research through September 30, 2020; Applied Materials through September 30, 2020; KLA through June 30, 2020; and Tokyo Electron through September 30, 2020. We will supplement the graph with additional 2020 data as it becomes available. In particular, ASML data for all of 2020 will be added after ASML submits its annual financial report covering the period through December 31, 2020.The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 20%",
- "probability": 0.08800000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 20% and 25%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1698,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%",
- "probability": 0.3705,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%",
- "probability": 0.25780000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 35%",
- "probability": 0.1139,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:43.474Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "75",
- "numforecasters": "59",
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the \"lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy.\" In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly \"pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration.\" The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. ***\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:46.450Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "365",
- "numforecasters": "198",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer \"after November 17, 2021.\" In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. ***\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Before February 17, 2021",
- "probability": 0.0223,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.0738,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021",
- "probability": 0.21559999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "After November 17, 2021",
- "probability": 0.6883,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:49.230Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "249",
- "numforecasters": "137",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 59%",
- "probability": 0.12369999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 59% and 66%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1791,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%",
- "probability": 0.2658,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%",
- "probability": 0.2939,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 80%",
- "probability": 0.1376,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:52.528Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "239",
- "numforecasters": "169",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:55.172Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "201",
- "numforecasters": "133",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term \"artificial intelligence\" of \"machine learning\"; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either \"ethics,\" \"bias,\" fairness,\" or any variant of those terms. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 1.5%",
- "probability": 0.067,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1356,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%",
- "probability": 0.2113,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%",
- "probability": 0.2891,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 6%",
- "probability": 0.29710000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:58.224Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "222",
- "numforecasters": "140",
- "stars": 3
- }
- }
-]
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/old/elicit-output.txt b/data/old/elicit-output.txt
deleted file mode 100644
index e33a27c..0000000
--- a/data/old/elicit-output.txt
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,15930 +0,0 @@
-Title: Some title
-URL: someurl.com
-Platform: some platform
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: X%/none
-Description: Some long description which may contain html
-# Forecasts: 15
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2050%20prediction%20questions%20embedded%20in%20LessWrong%20posts%20and%20comments%20this%20month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 56.39%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 337
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will more than 50 people predict on this post?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 82.03%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 230
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 36.85%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 158
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20without%20additional%20intervention%20from%20the%20existing%20AI%20Alignment%20research%20community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 52.70%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 137
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20arms%20race%20dynamic%20in%20the%20lead-up%20to%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 75.52%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 113
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new%20English%20Strain%20is%20at%20least%2050%%20more%20infectious%20than%20the%20currently%20dominant%20American%20strain%20of%20Covid-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 63.37%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 211
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20single%20AGI%20or%20AGI%20project%20achieve%20a%20decisive%20strategic%20advantage?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 61.63%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 115
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: How vivid is your visual imagination?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 50.68%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 119
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 33.50%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 110
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 42.70%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 107
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20we%20build%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 11.79%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 100
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: How vivid is your sound imagination?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20sound%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 61.17%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 106
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20another%20AI%20Winter%20(a%20period%20commonly%20referred%20to%20as%20such)%20before%20we%20develop%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 28.63%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 95
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%201-3%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 43.12%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 112
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20an%20additional%20distinct%20large%20wave%20of%20Covid-19%20infections%20in%20the%20United%20States%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 58.18%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 158
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: How vivid is your taste imagination?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20taste%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 25.73%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 84
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: How vivid is your smell imagination?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20smell%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 25.41%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 82
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20need%20>%203%20breakthroughs%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning%20to%20get%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 25.38%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 84
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: How frequently do you think in words?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 78.13%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 86
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 19.76%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 87
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Do you have an internal monologue?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 82.28%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 80
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: How vivid is your touch imagination?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 36.13%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 79
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: How good is your memory?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 52.65%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 78
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: How much control do you have over your mind?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20much%20control%20do%20you%20have%20over%20your%20mind?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 45.59%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 76
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 42.76%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 85
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Trump will win a second term
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20win%20a%20second%20term&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 46.20%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 74
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 24.51%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 75
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 31.56%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 66
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the post "Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20"Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong"%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 89.52%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 83
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Having%20a%20button/prompt%20for%20Elicit%20on%20LW%20would%20increase%20usage%20by%20at%20least%205x&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 60.22%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 41
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025%20bitcoin%20will%20no%20longer%20be%20the%20highest%20traded%20cryptocurrency.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 55.49%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 37
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity%20will%20not%20occur%20by%20the%20year%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 68.71%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 42
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 61.12%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 42
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025,%20most%20of%20Russia%20will%20become%20part%20of%20the%20United%20States,%20or%20the%20reverse,%20or%20they%20will%20in%20some%20other%20manner%20become%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state,%20or%20part%20of%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 0.79%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 34
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: The Pope will be assassinated.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope%20will%20be%20assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 3.03%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 32
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: "There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin" --Bill Walker, BBC
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin"%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 2.91%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 33
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 36.91%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 34
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 47.38%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 47
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 38.97%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 31
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 83.00%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 40
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 47.00%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 34
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 54.94%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 47
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: No military draft in the United States before 2020.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 90.27%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 33
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 8.81%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 31
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 82.13%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 32
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 8.68%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 28
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 0.23%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 26
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Trump wins Nobel
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 10.55%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 38
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 40.24%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 42
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: California will secede from the United States before 2021
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 0.68%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 34
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 1.88%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 26
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: ...be an environmental disaster.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 26.37%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 27
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 46.84%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 32
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: The Singularity will occur by 2050.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 35.12%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 25
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 7.46%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 26
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: "I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases."
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 9.69%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 26
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 58.56%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 34
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: 50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 24.39%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 28
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 62.27%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 26
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 68.88%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 25
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 84.11%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 27
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 19.35%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 23
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will there be an "Inverse AlphaFold" by end of 2025?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20"Inverse%20AlphaFold"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 33.91%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 33
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 6.67%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 24
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 58.15%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 39
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 20.48%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 29
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 60.84%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 32
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 37.46%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 24
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: ...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 70.19%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 21
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 99.41%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 22
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 26.36%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 25
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 34.13%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 47
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Google will survive for 15 more years
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 88.38%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 21
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 27.83%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 35
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 7.45%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 22
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 21.64%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 22
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 11.68%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 22
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 15.33%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 21
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 4.74%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 23
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: ...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 17.05%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 20
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: ...all-things-considered, be good for the world.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 80.89%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 27
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: 90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 47.05%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 21
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 86.75%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 24
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 2.21%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 19
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 72.43%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 23
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: ...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 48.40%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 20
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 74.85%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 20
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: ...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 36.38%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 21
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 6.95%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 20
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious)
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 54.20%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 20
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 39.69%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 35
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 83.14%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 22
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 56.94%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 35
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: United States will invade Australia and take over
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 10.00%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 21
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 12.05%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 21
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: What percentage of people experience a "Clogged drainpipe" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20"Clogged%20drainpipe"%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 64.34%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 50
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 3.32%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 22
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 64.80%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 40
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 64.28%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 18
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 67.55%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 22
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 51.78%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 18
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: “No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 40.27%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 26
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 12.79%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 19
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 8.39%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 18
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 83.95%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 21
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: The strategy-stealing assumption is "a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20"a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 33.27%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 26
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: “One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 35.00%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 23
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: aliens invade earth in 2023
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 0.94%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 18
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 1.72%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 18
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 21.62%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 21
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 47.17%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 23
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 69.33%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 18
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: '2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 1.80%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 25
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 26.89%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 19
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 30.95%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 20
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable "in ten thousand years, or so"
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 19.11%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 19
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 77.71%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 17
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 4.13%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 16
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: US presidents term limits abolished
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 2.24%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 17
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 57.78%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 18
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 8.12%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 17
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 35.53%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 19
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 95.32%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 19
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 34.67%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 18
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 4.90%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 20
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Man will travel to Mars by 2030.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 42.89%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 18
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 28.00%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 20
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 59.36%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 25
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: C still widely in use in the 2020s
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 93.53%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 15
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 73.94%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 17
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 29.44%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 16
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 66.47%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 17
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 56.90%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 29
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 78.12%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 17
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 76.55%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 20
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 14.48%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 25
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 3.71%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 17
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 43.47%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 19
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 55.18%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 17
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: There will NOT be a "World War III" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's "allies" and NATO and/or western europe)
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20"World%20War%20III"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20"allies"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 93.31%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 16
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 41.47%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 17
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 11.81%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 16
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 92.69%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 16
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 47.39%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 18
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: The message begins with "Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow". Should we execute it?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 7.86%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 14
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 17.39%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 18
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 87.18%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 17
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.
-&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 11.19%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 16
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: "Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs." --James Miller
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs."%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 9.55%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 20
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 5.94%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 17
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 14.00%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 15
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: "by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system"
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 6.20%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 15
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 82.20%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 15
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 17.00%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 15
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 9.82%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 17
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 30.26%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 19
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 7.00%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 18
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 53.00%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 14
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 9.47%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 15
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 28.21%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 14
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 11.73%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 15
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 8.79%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 14
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 44.15%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 4.50%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 16
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: 10 million
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 8.42%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 36
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 29.33%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 18
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Humanity still a thing in 2036
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 89.00%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 40.84%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 19
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI "spaceship" be larger than 1m in size?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20"spaceship"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 51.36%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 14
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: There be a "SETI Winter" before First Contact.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20"SETI%20Winter"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 73.89%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 19
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 10.69%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 16
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 44.46%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 26
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 5.33%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 15
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 32.06%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 16
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 85.31%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 16
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 18.54%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 9.47%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 15
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 4.92%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Truly "Pilotless" air travel will be the standard in 2050.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20"Pilotless"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 62.71%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 14
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: ETI is AGI
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 84.61%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 18
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 11.08%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: "The Essential Workers" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="The%20Essential%20Workers"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 40.27%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 15
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 4.08%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 14.62%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Trump dies of COVID-19
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 6.63%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 32
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 27.64%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 14
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, "How to create a mind")
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 26.75%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 16
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 13.37%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 19
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 38.31%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 14.69%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 33.75%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 16
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 29.79%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 14
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 7.71%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 14
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 51.07%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 14
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 0.60%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 15
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 60.83%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 12
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 2.73%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 15
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 78.92%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to "train it away"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20"train%20it%20away"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 63.15%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 26
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 33.58%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 12
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 37.08%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 30.40%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 15
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 69.69%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: "Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150." -lukeprog
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150."%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 66.54%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 63.00%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 63.33%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 15
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 52.47%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 15
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 43.11%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 19
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 49.24%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 33
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 70.00%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 15
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: 1 year continuous human habitation of the moon
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 15.93%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 14
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 46.69%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: 100 million
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 0.79%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 29
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 4.64%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 14
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 24.33%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 12
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 1.31%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 18.25%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 12
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: “There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 3.83%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 12
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 20.25%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 16
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 46.07%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 14
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 7.64%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 14
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 14.33%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 15
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 86.83%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 12
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: “By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 35.00%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 12
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: 'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 14.17%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 12
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 17.50%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 14
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: “In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 40.91%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 11
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 56.86%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 14
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 23.38%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 24
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 8.92%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: 'President Mike Pence'
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 14.06%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 16
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 29.08%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 12
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 67.79%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 14
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Trump will run for president in 2024
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 20.38%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 33.09%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 11
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the "same"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some "final being"?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20"same"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20"final%20being"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 26.27%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 11
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 28.88%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 25
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards)
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 40.82%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 22
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 55.00%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 26
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 33.20%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 15
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 1.00%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 11
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: “I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 8.00%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 11
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 31.64%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 11
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 65.93%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 14
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 68.67%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 12
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 55.57%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 14
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 57.00%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 38.64%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 11
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 13.67%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 12
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: "In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones" --Marc Andreessen
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 75.17%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 12
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: "within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million." --Dennis Mangan
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million."%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 64.82%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 11
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: "there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years." - Scott Adams
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years."%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 20.73%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 11
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 52.69%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 2.42%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 12
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 10.79%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 14
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 41.54%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 21.27%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 11
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 31.38%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: The LW user account "Grognor" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20"Grognor"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 45.92%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 45.31%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 45.69%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 9.00%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 12
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 10.18%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 11
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 44.08%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 12
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 10.29%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 14
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Trump wins the 2020 election.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 47.54%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 28.43%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 14
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 93.25%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 12
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 28.09%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 11
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 23.67%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 12
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: China will land a man on Mars by 2050.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 43.08%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 24.75%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 12
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 77.83%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 12
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: 50 million
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 1.65%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 34
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: "At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150."
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 56.21%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 14
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: "By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation."
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 16.33%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 12
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 3.54%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 3.77%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 5.42%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 12
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 10.00%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 14
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 60.36%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 11
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: “By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 7.42%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 12
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 26.10%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 10
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: 1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 41.08%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: At least one self-described "anarchist" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20"anarchist"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 36.82%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 11
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 27.79%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 14
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 11.30%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 10
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 41.30%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 10
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: EU to dissolve by 2040.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 39.45%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 11
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 34.38%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 16
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 33.46%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 48.00%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 10
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 15.80%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 10
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 55.60%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 10
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 17.30%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 10
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 78.90%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 10
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 15.50%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 12
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 56.91%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 11
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 44.17%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 12
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: WWIII starts before 2030.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 8.86%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 14
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 70.67%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 12
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 7.09%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 11
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 75.09%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 11
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 46.70%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 10
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: We ask ETI "do we live in a simulation"? They answer "yes".
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation"?%20They%20answer%20"yes".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 17.92%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 30.90%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 10
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years.
-
-By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20
-
-By%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 77.10%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 10
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 13.08%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 12
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 21.70%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 10
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as "very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?"
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 29.64%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 11
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 13.14%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 14
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 10.92%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 12
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 16.00%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 10
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: ". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form." --Dan King
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form."%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 11.46%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: homosexuality criminalized in the US
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 2.50%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 10
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 26.38%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Airbnb to be acquired by 2025
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 34.64%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 11
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 29.08%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 20.40%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 10
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.
-
-http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.
-
-http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 19.80%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 10
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 22.08%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 12
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 9.36%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 14
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 0.50%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 10
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 12.09%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 11
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 4.20%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 10
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 6.09%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 11
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: “China will break apart by 2030”
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 24.60%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 10
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: “The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 11.46%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 13
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 1.36%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 11
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032
-URL: https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0
-Platform: Elicit
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 52.73%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: 11
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the Universe end?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/161/will-the-universe-end/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 72%
-Description: Warning: you're not going to win or lose any points on this one. The question of whether the world will end is a perennial one, with The End sometimes forecast to come within a human lifetime or two. This is an ultra-important question, but not the biggest possible one: we can widen our question to whether "The Universe" will end. Even posing this question is not very straightforward, as "The Universe" has come to mean a great variety of things, from the observable universe that we see through telescopes, all the way through various types of [multiverses](http://www.britannica.com/science/multiverse) . So let's start with some definitions. When we view a particular epoch of the universe through electromagnetic (and now gravitational!) radiation, we are seeing a two-dimensional sphere that we can think of as the "sky" at some "distance." Assembling these nested spheres back to around the [nucleosynthesis era](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_nucleosynthesis) era gives a ball of a...
-# Forecasts: 552
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 30%
-Description: [SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an "Interplanetary Transport System" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach. The timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX "gets lucky and things go according to plan", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent ...
-# Forecasts: 4920
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 59%
-Description: A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the "natural" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing beyond the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan? A [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind. Who will win? Resolution is positive if a human born prior to 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150. Per the current list of oldest humans, the earliest possible resolution time is 2049.
-# Forecasts: 804
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Large-scale generation of electric power by nuclear fusion is a holy grail of energy science research. The potential for scalability (due to abundant ocean reserves of deuterium), and the relatively small level and short lifetime of radioactive waste could allow fusion power to contribute significantly to a zero-carbon sustainable global electrical supply. In additional to large governmental efforts like the US [National Ignition Facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Ignition_Facility), Europe's [ITER](https://www.iter.org), [HiPER](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HiPER), and the [Wendelstein 7-X](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendelstein_7-X), there are also a number of private companies developing fusion technology. Private efforts include [General Fusion](http://generalfusion.com), [Tri-Alpha Energy](http://trialphaenergy.com), and [Lockheed-Martin](http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/compact-fusion.html), but all are cagey about their benchmarks and progress. Is the...
-# Forecasts: 290
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/372/will-human-brain-emulation-be-the-first-successful-route-to-human-level-digital-intelligence/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 5%
-Description: In the quest for "strong" Artificial Intelligence, defined here as digital intelligences rivaling or surpassing that of humans, a number of potential path have been discussed. Among them is "brain emulation," in which the physical functioning of a human brain is directly simulated, at some level of detail, in a digital computer. In an interesting recent book, [The Age of Em](https://www.amazon.com/Age-Em-Work-Robots-Earth/dp/0198754620), Robin Hanson explores the potential dynamics of human society assuming such "Ems" can be created, and that this occurs prior to the advent of other forms of strong AI. (See also a [recent post by Hanson](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/11/brains-simpler-than-brain-cells.html) discussing the relative timing of different AI paths.) There is considerable debate about the technological feasibility of such simulation: though there is general (though not universal) agreement that the brain, being a physical system, is amenable to being simulated, the ne...
-# Forecasts: 408
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 10%
-Description: Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe) . Some commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it. Will there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten...
-# Forecasts: 826
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 61%
-Description: Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. Machine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there ...
-# Forecasts: 918
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Robocup Challenge
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/397/robocup-challenge/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 25%
-Description: The [Robocup Challenge](http://www.robocup.org/objective) was launched in the mid-1990s as a "grand challenge" in robotics. The stated goal of the challenge is: By the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup. On the road to this challenge, annual Robocup games are played; see [here](http://www.robocup.org/events/upcoming_events) for upcoming events. Will the Robocup challenge be met by 2050? Positive resolution requires announcement by the Robocup challenge organization that the challenge has been officially accomplished.
-# Forecasts: 301
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: When will there be machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO construction?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: For more than 100 years, machines have been replacing human physical labor, especially in jobs requiring great physical strength, or endurance, or extremely repetitive and well-defined motions. This has arguably accelerated in recent decades, and there is a current growing push for " [lights out manufacturing](http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB1037666065632825628)," i.e. have no light-requiring humans in-the-loop. It has proven harder to create robots that can substitute for the fine-grained dexterity and motor control of many physical tasks, especially those where the action must be in response to, or dictated by, visual or verbal information. Robots are, however, continually improving, and it is not hard to extrapolate to a time when most non-intellectual factory-type jobs can be done by autonomous systems that can be directly "slotted in" for a human worker. As a benchmark for the type of visual and manual processing required, we ask: When will a robot exist that is able to completely a...
-# Forecasts: 296
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: As of 2017, humans can (with assistance of various software tools) program machine learning (ML) systems that can learn to do various tasks – for example, recognize text, transcribe speech, or play games. ML systems are currently not very good at writing programs to accomplish a specific purpose, though there are efforts in this direction, and some software systems (e.g. Mathematica and Wolfram-alpha) which are quite high-level programming systems. (See the related question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/)). If or when AI/ML systems become competent enough to do fairly general-purpose programming, for example to construct by themselves (according to some specifications) the types of narrow AI systems that AI researchers can create as of 2017, there could be a very rapid proliferation of such narrow AI systems since they could be constructed to-order for all manner of purposes even by non-programmers. If an AI/ML system could beco...
-# Forecasts: 489
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/418/when-will-the-first-law-concerning-artificial-intelligence-be-passed-in-the-us/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: As of now, there are to the author's knowledge no laws (or even regulations) concerning artificial intelligence on the books. When will the first law be passed in the US concerning AI? Resolution will occur if/when a bill with "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" in either the long or short official title or official description listed at [https://www.gpo.gov/](https://www.gpo.gov/) or other equivalent source.
-# Forecasts: 422
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: If you die today and get cryonically frozen, will you "wake up"?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/455/if-you-die-today-and-get-cryonically-frozen-will-you-wake-up/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 5%
-Description: Individual death has long been attributed a 100% long-term probability. But for just as long, there have been desires, schemes, and claims of ways to prolong life indefinitely. In moderns times, three examples include anti-aging research (the ultimate version of which would be personal immortality), digital mind-upload, and cryonics. The latter is the subject of this question. The basic idea is simple: upon bodily death, preserve as much structure (especially in the brain) as possible via immediate freezing, and maintain this until medical technology had advanced to the degree that the individual can be fully reconstructed – memories, personality and all – using this preserved structure. (For an entertaining long read check out [this Wait-but-why piece](http://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/cryonics.html) .) The ability to quickly freeze tissue in a structure-preserving way has steadily improved; an [existing question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/437/when-will-the-large-brain-preservat...
-# Forecasts: 536
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/480/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-white-winning/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 39%
-Description: [Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player (white) wins, second player (black) wins, or there is a forced draw. In the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to: 1-- White wins 2-- Black wins 3-- Forced draw If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning? For the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if --- it is proved that white will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides --- it is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw Resolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication. For the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](http...
-# Forecasts: 131
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/489/will-the-european-union-meet-its-2030-targets-under-the-paris-climate-treaty/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 35%
-Description: Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including the European Union, [the world's #3 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions) Under the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. The EU's goal was to reduce emissions by 40% below 1990 levels. If achieved, by 2030 the EU will emit around [3.4-3.9 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html), whereas today the region accounts for [3.46 gigatons per year, or nearly ten percent of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions) . Emissions have been in decline since 1990. Current projections estimate that the EU goals represent [a slowdown in the region's trend of emission reduction](http://climateacti...
-# Forecasts: 292
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/491/will-china-achieve-its-paris-climate-agreement-goals/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 64%
-Description: Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including China, [the world's #1 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions) Under the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. China's goal was to reduce emissions by 60-65% per unit GDP by 2030. This means that the country plans to reduce the emissions intensity, or the [ratio of emissions to gross domestic product](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_intensity), a measure that ties emissions goals to economic growth. If achieved, by 2030 China will emit around [13-14 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html), whereas today the country accounts for [10.6 gigatons per year, or 29.5% of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countr...
-# Forecasts: 273
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: With an international nuclear weapons ban in place, will a country that has nuclear weapons actually give them up by 2035?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 20%
-Description: In July 2017, 122 member states of the United Nations [adopted a ban](http://time.com/4848586/un-nuclear-weapons-ban-treaty/) on nuclear weapons. The participating states agreed to "never under any circumstances to develop, test, produce, manufacture, otherwise acquire, possess or stockpile nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices." Notably, [none of the nations](http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/27/politics/un-nuclear-ban-boycott/) that currently possess nuclear weapons participated in the negotiations of the ban or adopted the document. Several treaties prior to this aimed to curb the development of nuclear weapons, notably the 1968 [Non-Proliferation Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons) (NPT), which sought to limit nuclear development beyond five nuclear powers - the U.S., Russia, China, the U.K., and France. Arguments against nuclear disarmament typically cite the principle of [deterrence](http://americanhistory.si.edu/subs/h...
-# Forecasts: 258
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/512/will-an-ai-system-do-credibly-well-on-a-full-math-sat-exam-by-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 71%
-Description: Humans have devised many ways of assessing other humans' intelligence, and forcing people to participate in such measures. University entrance exams are one of the most familiar, inflicted on countless high school students each year as standardized measures of academic competence and promise. Recently, these exams have begun the target of AI and machine learning projects. According to a [report by Engadget](https://www.engadget.com/2016/11/16/japanese-ai-tokyo-university-fail/), Japan’s National Institute of Informatics had been working on an AI since 2011 with the final objective of passing the entrance exam for the University of Tokyo, tentatively by March 2022. However, a recent [report](https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/japanese-artificial-intelligence-gives-up-on-university-of-tokyo-admissions-exam/) has revealed that the institute will be terminating the project because of its AI's inability to fully understand the broad context of the entrance exam questions. More recently...
-# Forecasts: 651
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will the first commercial hyperloop system be within the US?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/513/will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-be-within-the-us/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 36%
-Description: Elon Musk's dream of a hyperloop – a pod-based transportation system that uses magnetic levitation in a near-vacuum – is coming closer to reality. Tests in the Nevada desert have achieved speeds up to 192 mph, and Musk announced in July 2017 that he had ["verbal approval"](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/07/20/elon-musk-hyperloop/495735001/) for a hyperloop between New York and Washington, DC. (Though it is rather unclear what exactly this means.) But other countries are interested too. Dubai and Russia are both developing plans. For Russia, a hyperloop could open up new areas of the country to [trade with China](https://hyperloop-one.com/blog/hyperloop-one-can-open-russias-far-east-china-trade) . If, that is, [lawsuits](https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-13/russia-s-hyperloop-dream-stalls) don't derail the project. In Dubai, designs for a Dubai-Abu Dhabi hyperloop network [already exist](http://www.businessinsider.com/hyperloop-one-how-it-works-2017-7/#the-start...
-# Forecasts: 273
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: A major United States earthquake by 2023?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 30%
-Description: The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. The [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by "The Big One," with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, r...
-# Forecasts: 535
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will humans go extinct by 2100?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 1%
-Description: While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event. In 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain o...
-# Forecasts: 682
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will VR or AR Headsets dominate by 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/579/will-vr-or-ar-headsets-dominate-by-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 50%
-Description: If you asked someone in the early 2010s about virtual reality, they'd likely hearken back to the VR craze of the 90s, which fizzled out instead of being the promised wave of the future. But since then, with the development of the Oculus Rift, Google Cardboard and other systems, virtual reality has become more accessible and more useful than ever before. Estimates of sales of VR systems in 2016 exceeded [12 million units](https://www.statista.com/statistics/458037/virtual-reality-headsets-unit-sales-worldwide/) worldwide. Augmented reality, or AR, has come into its own in about the same timeframe. AR overlays virtual content onto images of the real world. Google Glass, introduced in 2013, and Microsoft's HoloLens, still in development, are wearable AR devices. Pokemon Go, introduced in summer 2016, demonstrated the possibilities of smartphone-based AR - no glasses needed. As Google Glass continues to find [application in factories and other workplaces](https://www.wired.com/story/googl...
-# Forecasts: 251
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: 2˚C global warming by 2100?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 89%
-Description: At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) "well below 2 ˚C" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy. Therefore, it is asked: Will there, by 2100, have been a period of at least 5 consecutive years, in which the average global temperature in each year was at least 2.0 ˚C greater than the average global temperature in 1880. (Note that 1880 isn't exactly pre-industrial, but earlier data is highly unreliable, and there should really not have been much warming by then.) Data for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the dat...
-# Forecasts: 359
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: World Population in 2050?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The world population has been steadily increasing for several centuries. As of November 2017, the world's population stands at approximately 7.6 billion people. According to UN projections the world population will be 9.7 billion in 2050. Regrettably, increases in world population are worrying some people, who are concerned that an increased population may be too much for an already strained environment to bear. Indeed, overpopulation can be seen as the root cause on many problems, from climate change to resource depletion. Therefore, it is asked:What will be the world population on the 31st of December 2050? We shall define world population as the number of living humans on planet earth. We'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs,...
-# Forecasts: 305
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/) asks whether conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life will be found within our Solar System. As specified in that question, the extraterrestrial life must not have been put in place as a result of human activity. Conditional to a positive resolution, we ask where the organisms (under natural conditions, no probes moving them, etc.) live or lived. We consider the most commonly discussed options, and a few other possibilities. 1--Venus. 2--Mars. 3--Europa. 4--Ganymede. 5--Another moon of Jupiter. 6--Enceladus. 7--Titan. 8--Another moon of Saturn. 9--A dwarf planet. 10-An asteroid. 11-Another place in the Solar System. Resolution is ambiguous if [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-sol...
-# Forecasts: 79
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Increased off-world population in 2050?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/594/off-world-population-in-2050/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 93%
-Description: At the time of writing this question, there are 6 people in low Earth orbit, no people on suborbital space flights, no people in high orbit, or on the Moon or Mars or any asteroid or en route to those places. Up-to-date information on the space population may be [found here.](https://www.howmanypeopleareinspacerightnow.com/) For the last 17 years, since the International Space Station (ISS) began long term operations, the population of humans in space has been at least two – the minimal crew of the ISS. The highest number of people in space at any one time has been 13, reached in 1995 and 2009. But the ISS is reaching the end of its life. Despite discussions of many other possible crewed space missions, even up to colonization of the Moon or Mars, no particular venture seems certain. This uncertainty about future space missions means the distribution of possible populations is not at all Gaussian. There are many scenarios where crewed spaceflight might be abandoned – it is expensiv...
-# Forecasts: 455
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will a sample of negative energy be produced by 2100?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/600/will-a-sample-of-negative-energy-be-produced-by-2100/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 20%
-Description: Warp drives. Wormholes. Time machines. These exotic structures are the stuff of science fiction, but also have valid mathematical structures behind them in the form of spacetime "metrics" one can write down with the requisite properties. There is one major physical issue standing in the way actually making them, however: all these possibilities require negative energy. More specifically, relativists have devised a number of mathematical conditions that may be assumed regarding matter and energy, known as "energy conditions." Wormhole, warp-drive, and time-machine solutions to Einstein's equations essentially always require some substance that violates the "weak energy condition" (WEC), and generally others. Most simply, the WEC states that in the restframe of a material, its energy density is non-negative. (Technically the substance's pressure also must be sufficiently non-negative; see e.g. [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_condition) for a brief description, and a good rel...
-# Forecasts: 227
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected within the next 10 years?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/604/will-gravitational-waves-from-the-merger-of-supermassive-black-holes-be-detected-within-the-next-10-years/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 67%
-Description: The Nobel Prize-winning detection of gravitational waves added a new observational tool for astronomers to use in studying celestial events. But an as-yet-unobserved phenomenon would make all the gravitational wave detections so far seem like small potatoes. When two galaxies merge, the supermassive black holes at their centers would merge as well, and the process would emit gravitational waves. But the wavelength of those waves would be undetectable by the LIGO observatory. They're best detected by pulsar. Pulsars emit electromagnetic radiation at regular intervals. A gravitational wave would slightly change the distance from the Earth to a pulsar, and thus slightly change the pulsar's timing as well. In a paper in [Nature Astronomy](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-017-0299-6), astronomers use observation data and models of supermassive black hole merger events to conclude that we should be able to detect such an event within the next 10 years. If we don't, it could indicate ...
-# Forecasts: 259
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How much global warming by 2100?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) "well below 2 ˚C" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy. [It was previously asked whether global warming would exceed 2 ˚C.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) While this is the more interesting question out of a political perspective, given that world leaders have taken 2 ˚C to be their target, the more interesting question for humanity as a whole will be how much warming we will actually have. Therefore it is asked:How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2100 be than the average global temperatu...
-# Forecasts: 460
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will we detect a message originating from Luyten's Star before 2046?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/606/luytens-star-message-detected-before-2046/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 1%
-Description: In October 2017, Messaging Extraterrestrial Intelligence International (METI) transmitted a [signal into space](https://www.cnet.com/news/seti-space-aliens-extra-terrestrial-intelligence-luytens-star-gj-273/) designed to let other civilizations know we're here. The message, transmitted to a [red dwarf star](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luyten%27s_Star) 12 light-years from Earth and contains information on human understanding of science, math and time. In March 2017, a planet three times the mass of Earth within the habitable zone was discovered orbiting the star. If there's anyone on that planet who receives the message, their reply could arrive as early as 2042. Will a response to the METI signal arrive by 2045? This question will resolve as positive if a signal of unambiguously intelligent and extraterrestrial origin originating from Luyten's Star is detected on or near Earth on or before December 31, 2045.
-# Forecasts: 268
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will our current peace be shorter than the Pax Romana?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/610/will-our-current-peace-be-shorter-than-the-pax-romana/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 53%
-Description: The [Pax Romana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Romana) was a period of relative peace, which lasted for approximately 206 years from 27 BC to AD 180. The peace was not absolute, though, and the historian Walter Goffart wrote, "The volume of the Cambridge Ancient History for the years A.D. 70–192 is called 'The Imperial Peace', but peace is not what one finds in its pages". Similarly, there have been wars in the post-ww2 era, despite the era being relatively peaceful. The post-WW2 peace has also lasted for only about 72 years as of the writing of this question, making it only about 35% as long as the Pax Romana. In order to last as long as the Pax Romana, our peace would have to endure until 2151. There are many things threatening peace, from seemingly perpetual unrest in the middle-east to an increasingly tense situation on the Korean peninsula. Yet, a major global conflict in the near future seems unlikely. When predicting whether a major global conflict will occur within a longer...
-# Forecasts: 357
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will there be a Vegan Country by 2100?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/614/will-there-be-a-vegan-country-by-2100/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 20%
-Description: Interest in Veganism has increased substantially in recent years, but it is unclear whether the current wave of Veganism will become the movement that will make eating animal products a thing of the past or just turn out to be another fad. It was [previously asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/581/will-interest-in-veganism-further-increase-in-2018/), whether the month with the maximum internet interest in Veganism in 2018 would have a interest at least 25% greater than the month with the greatest interest in 2017. This question, however, does not assess whether Veganism can reach its ultimate potential. Some Vegans believe the consumption of animal products to be sufficiently immoral to justify a legal ban. Therefore, a society in which Veganism has reached its full potential would ban the consumption of animal products. It is asked: Will there be a country that bans the consumption of all animal products by 2100? Consumption means eating, wearing, or otherwise applying to the b...
-# Forecasts: 459
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will we reach the island of stability by 2050?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/658/will-we-reach-the-island-of-stability-by-2050/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 45%
-Description: Since the synthesis of neptunium in 1940, we have been continually expanding the periodic table by creating new elements. Regrettably, as atoms have become bigger, they also have become less stable, the last few elements to be created having a half-life of less than a second. Yet it is theorized that at some point, stability of new elements might start increasing again, creating an [island of stability]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_of_stability) . There are certain "magic numbers" of protons that offer the chance of higher stability; 114, 120 and 126 are magic numbers. We have yet to reach elements 120 and 126 and there might still be more stable isotopes of element 114 that have not yet been created. It is asked: Will we create an isotope of an element that has more than 110 protons, that has a half-life of at least one day (86,400 seconds) prior to 2050? In order for the question to resolve positive the half-life of the isotope must be verified by an independent scientific ...
-# Forecasts: 197
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Kessler syndrome by 2050?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/665/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-operational-in-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 15%
-Description: The [Kessler syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome) is a situation where a major satellite collision causes an increase in space junk, causing a cascading effect destroying many if not most other satellites. We are currently losing about one satellite per year due to collisions with space junk, yet these collisions are far too small to cause a runaway effect. Furthermore, action has been taken by the Federal Communications Commission to reduce the chance of this happening and regulations in the U.S. require all satellites launched after March 18, 2002 to be disposed of by controlled atmospheric reentry or a boost into a graveyard orbit after shutdown. It is asked: By 2050 will we have had a one year period in which we will have lost at least 10% of our operational satellites due to collisions with space junk?
-# Forecasts: 425
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: When will the world create the first Trillionaire?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in. International bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around [11 trillionaires](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10808915/World-could-see-first-trillionaire-in-25-years.html) within 2 generations. Others speculate that bitcoin's mystery founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, might [claim the title](https://mashable.com/2017/12/12/bitcoin-satoshi-trillionaire/) . Despite the fact that Amazon's Jeff Bezos is [nearing the $100B mark](https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/dec/19/when-will-we-see-the-worlds-first-trillionaire-jeff-bezos-bill-gates), we're not yet nearing $1T territory. What do you think? When will we cross the threshold? For a positive result, an individual must be ranked on [Forbes' Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2017/03/20/forbes-2017-billionaires-list-meet-the-richest-people-on-the-planet...
-# Forecasts: 353
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 14.000000000000002%
-Description: The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the [world record for breath holding](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-time-breath-held-voluntarily-(male)), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016. That busted other previous records, such as magician David Blaine’s impressive 17 minute breath hold. Amazing details on Blaine’s feat are available in this [TED Talk](https://www.ted.com/talks/david_blaine_how_i_held_my_breath_for_17_min) All very nice. But bioengineering will allow us to push the record up—possibily, way up. Some techniques, like “lung packing,” are already being put to use by daredevils. [Per Deadspin](https://deadspin.com/how-long-can-humans-hold-their-breath-1467541916) : This [lung packing] consists of inhaling the very largest breath possible, and then, without exhaling, puffing your cheeks full of more air and attempting to force that air down int...
-# Forecasts: 230
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/685/will-the-us-get-rid-of-the-penny-by-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 25%
-Description: If you haven’t seen CGP Grey’s ["Death to Pennies"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5UT04p5f7U) video, it’s worth the watch. Funny, and mildly enraging. It raises a great question that deserves answering: Why DOES the U.S. Mint continue to produce pennies, year after year? After all, it [costs more to mint](http://time.com/money/4618271/penny-cost-make-worth/) these coins than they’re worth as currency. You can’t use them in vending machines, parking meters or arcades. They accumulate in jars and slow transactions. Yes, technically, you can throw them in a fountain and make wishes on them. And they have more intrinsic value than, say, Bitcoins. But they’re also choking hazards. Per [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/children-and-choking-hazards/) : Coins, especially pennies, are a major choking hazard and since adults rarely pick them up, they are plentiful on the ground for children. Many people have had enough. Last April, U.S. Senators John McCain and Mike Enzi reintroduced a...
-# Forecasts: 364
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 55.00000000000001%
-Description: Every space geek loves Mars. Mars gets [all the robots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_artificial_objects_on_Mars) as well as [all the movies](https://www.ranker.com/list/the-best-mars-movies/all-genre-movies-lists) . But whither Venus? Where’s the love for our beautiful goddess neighbor who apparently welcomed the Russian Venera-13 lander by crushing it to death within hours. Informed [speculation on Quora](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-current-condition-of-the-Venera-probe-that-landed-on-the-surface-of-Venus-in-1982) suggests that: The [Venera 13] lander's seals and pressurized chambers were breached the day of the landing, so all of the material and equipment that the Venera was designed to protect was melted and boiled off decades ago. Yikes. Okay, maybe that's why we don't drop by more often. Venus is often compared to a literal hellscape. We know about the surface temperatures that melt lead, the sulfuric acid clouds, the poisonous metal snow, etc. But Venus is also in...
-# Forecasts: 428
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: When will there be a mile-high building?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/735/when-will-there-be-a-mile-high-building/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The [Burj Khalifa](http://www.burjkhalifa.ae/en/index.aspx) towers over the Dubai desert at 2,717 feet (828 meters; for this question [United States customary units](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_customary_units) are appropriate), making it currently (as of March 2018) the tallest manmade building in the world. It’s held that record since 2008, and it bests the next tallest skyscraper, the [Shanghai Towers](http://www.skyscrapercenter.com/building/shanghai-tower/56) in Shanghai, China by nearly 650 feet. (One World Trade Center, the tallest building in the U.S., lags behind at 1,776 feet.) But guess what, Burj? Your days of being #1 are (probably) numbered. Several projects on the development slate are on schedule to overtake Dubai’s neo-futuristic megatall landmark. Among them: --- The Jeddah Tower in Saudi Arabia, which will stretch up a whole kilometer [above the Earth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeddah_Tower) by 2021 --- In 2021, [Merdeka PNB118](http://www.skys...
-# Forecasts: 203
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 71%
-Description: As of 2018, it's taken [about 16 years for the world economic output to double](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) . So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence. An important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example. Paul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same ar...
-# Forecasts: 281
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 85%
-Description: SpaceX has released plans for an "Interplanetary Transport System" with the goal (among other things) of sending people to Mars. In typical Elon Musk fashion, the announced timelines are wildly optimistic or aspirational. But Musk and SpaceX do seem very committed to reaching Mars. In another question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030) it is asked if Musk's optimistic timeline will be met, landing people on Mars by 2030. This question sets a scaled-back goal: Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030? This will resolve positive if a SpaceX branded mission, where the primary launch hardware and Mars entry, descent, and landing systems are built by SpaceX, successfully lands on Mars by Jan 1, 2030.
-# Forecasts: 1058
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 48%
-Description: In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.” On the one hand, Puerto Ricans can: --- Claim natural-born U.S. citizenship --- Receive Medicaid and Medicare --- Vote in Presidential primaries On the other hand, they cannot: --- Vote in Congressional or Presidential elections --- Get access to other government programs --- Be represented in Congress by a voting legislator The issue of whether to elevate Puerto Rico to statehood has been raised repeatedly since 1952. In fact, island residents have voted in statehood referendums in: 1967, 1991,1993, 1998 and 2012. In the most recent vote, sentiment on the island turned positive for the first time in voting history: Puerto Ricans want their own state. Why? Well, the reasons are complicated. Those in ...
-# Forecasts: 381
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/804/1000th-binary-question-resolution-is-positive/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 36%
-Description: It was previously asked [whether a question of unknown nature would resolve positive]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/666/will-this-question-resolve-positive/) . The Metaculus prediction ended up being 29.9% despite only 26.4% of previous binary Metaculus questions resolving positive. Once the nature of the question was revealed, it became clear that (despite resolving negative) the question was a lot more likely to resolve positive than the average Metaculus question. (A fair a priori probably would have been larger than 50%.) As of the writing of this question, 525 binary Metaculus questions have resolved, the majority negative. This question is going to probe what the fair a priori of a future question will be. This avoids the arbitrariness of who gets to choose the secret question, as that still remains uncertain. It is asked: Will the 1000th binary Metaculus question resolution be positive? To avoid an incentive for cheating, whoever was the author of the 1000th question shou...
-# Forecasts: 86
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered by 2045?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/808/will-europa-be-the-first-place-humanity-will-discover-extraterrestrial-life-if-it-is-discovered-by-2045/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 22%
-Description: Every astrobiologist and their brother is excited about the possibility of life on Jupiter's moon, Europa. And for good reason. It's likely got more liquid water than our fair Earth does. Thanks to Jupiter's gravitation tugging, there's almost certainly lots of volcanic activities beneath those seas to create an environment similar to the one we suspect [gave rise to life](https://www.whoi.edu/news-release/study-tests-theory-that-life-originated-at-deep-sea-vents) on this planet. In addition to fantasizing extensively about [discovering life on Europa](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NlvndXpmEA), our species has been busy preparing recon missions to sample [tasty plumes](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-s-hubble-spots-possible-water-plumes-erupting-on-jupiters-moon-europa/) of water+organics fulminating off the surface. Maybe we'll get lucky and find convincing proof of biological activity on Europa with the [Clipper mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/europa-clipper/) ....
-# Forecasts: 343
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/809/will-a-member-of-president-trumps-inner-circle-be-sentenced-to-jail-by-2023/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 90%
-Description: For the purposes of this question, we'll confine Trump's "inner circle" to the following people: --- [Donald Trump himself](http://www.newsweek.com/could-trump-face-jail-time-mueller-investigation-776140) --- [Donald Trump Junior](http://www.newsweek.com/jared-kushner-donald-trump-jr-steve-bannon-michael-wolff-money-laundering-771166) --- [Ivanka Trump](http://www.newsweek.com/will-mueller-charge-ivanka-trump-russia-investigation-2018-773055) --- [Jared Kushner](https://www.pastemagazine.com/articles/2017/11/jared-kushners-chances-of-staying-out-of-prison-ju.html) ---Mike Pence --- [Michael Cohen](https://www.vox.com/2018/4/13/17226678/michael-cohen-raid-trump-pardon-law) ---John Kelly ---Hope Hicks --- [Steve Bannon](https://lawandcrime.com/legal-analysis/bannon-could-face-contempt-sanctions-for-not-answering-questions/) Note #1: Links go to articles related to potential criminal charges against individuals. Note #2: Steve Bannon is included on the list, even though he and Tr...
-# Forecasts: 315
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/824/will-a-practical-nuclear-fusion-reactor-first-be-developed-in-china/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 30%
-Description: With an enormous amount of energy created per unit mass of fuel, cheap and abundance (e.g. deuterium) fuel, and relatively benign waste products, practical energy generation from nuclear fusion would be transformative for the world. A [number of questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:phys-sci--nuclear) relate to efforts in the US and Europe, but there is another major player in the field: China. As discussed in [this story](http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/20289/china-touts-fusion-progress-as-new-details-on-lockheed-martins-reactor-emerge), China is pouring significant resources into practical nuclear fusion. So we ask: When practical nuclear fusion is developed, will it first be in China? For these purposes we define "practical" as an operational high-temperature nuclear fusion reactor that can (a) produce a demonstrated positive energy balance exceeding 100 megawatts for more than one week, and (b) have a sustainable plan for long-term operations (e.g. no cri...
-# Forecasts: 315
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will Metaculus exist in 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/841/will-metaculus-exist-in-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 85%
-Description: Due to the fact that some of Metaculus' questions (and some of the most interesting/important ones for that) are extremely long-term, some users have expressed concern that Metaculus will not be around for resolution. While whether Metaculus will be around to resolve very long-term questions may not be of direct interest to predictors, as it does not really make sense to predict with points in mind if those points are decades away anyway, it would still be interesting to get a sense of what the probability is that Metaculus will be around in a couple of decades time. Therefore, it is asked:Will Metaculus still be operating on January 1st 2030? A positive resolution does not require the site to still operate at [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) in 2030, but it does require a degree of continuity with the current version of Metaculus so that no more than 1% of all predictions ever made may have been lost from players' point calculating process and no more than one percent of once ope...
-# Forecasts: 460
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will the world's richest person in 2033 have a net worth greater than that of John D. Rockefeller in 1913?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/899/will-the-worlds-richest-person-in-2033-have-a-net-worth-greater-than-that-of-john-d-rockefeller-in-1913/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 33%
-Description: [John D. Rockefeller](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_D._Rockefeller) is considered to be the wealthiest American of all time. In 1913 he was the world's richest person with a net worth of over a billion dollars. That was equivalent to about 2% of the United States' GDP back then. For reference, 2% of US GDP would be close to 400 billion dollars today! This reference perspective makes him much richer than the current richest person in the world, Jeff Bezos, whose net worth is at 112 billion dollars in the 2018 Forbes ranking. Yet, inequality is on the rise in many developed countries and the net worth of the richest person in the world has been consistently increasing over the last few years. Could a person as rich as John D. Rockefeller reappear in the modern world? It is asked:Will the richest person in the world in 2033 have a net worth equivalent to or greater than 2% of the United States' GDP at the time? Data for resolution shall be taken from the [2033 Forbes Billionaires lis...
-# Forecasts: 245
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will we discover clear evidence of proton decay by 2040?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/915/will-we-discover-clear-evidence-of-proton-decay-by-2040/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 28.000000000000004%
-Description: Protons are durable little subatomic particles. Our collective best guess that they should take at least years to decay... if they do so at all. Why do scientists want to figure this out? Symmetry Magazine explains the situation: Much [the theoritical work on Grand Unified Theories of the universe] rests on the existence of proton decay, and yet we’ve never seen a proton die. The reason may simply be that protons rarely decay, a hypothesis borne out by both experiment and theory... Because of quantum physics, the time any given proton decays is random, so a tiny fraction will decay long before that -year lifetime. So, “what you need to do is to get a whole bunch of protons together,” says [University of California's Jonathan Feng]. Increasing the number of protons increases the chance that one of them will decay while you’re watching. Several experiments around the world have attempted (and will be attempting) to quantify the whys and wherefores of proton decay. Two of the most impo...
-# Forecasts: 152
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/916/will-another-911-on-us-soil-be-prevented-at-least-through-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 75%
-Description: As of mid-2018, it's been almost 17 years since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks that destroyed the Twin Towers in New York and damaged the Pentagon. Nearly 3,000 people died in the attack. Since that time, fortunately, there hasn't been another attack on the U.S. homeland that's anywhere close to the size and scale of 9/11. However, we cannot rest easy. As The Atlantic [reported](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/09/are-we-any-safer/492761/) in September 2016: Are we safer? Yes, we’re safer from the kind of orchestrated attack that shocked us on that September morning. It’s harder for terrorists to get into the country, and harder for them to pull off something spectacular if they do. But we have not plugged some of the most threatening security gaps. A special report compiled by the Heritage Foundation examined [60 terrorist plots](https://www.heritage.org/terrorism/report/60-terrorist-plots-911-continued-lessons-domestic-counterterrorism) that have unfolded ...
-# Forecasts: 224
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will a space elevator successfully be built by 2100?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/917/will-a-space-elevator-successfully-be-built-by-2100/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 8%
-Description: Ahh, to build a space elevator. Wouldn't that be grand? We could move material into space at a fraction of the cost of conventional rockets. Space tourism would [boom](https://www.herox.com/crowdsourcing-news/137-going-up-the-case-for-a-space-elevator) . We'd launch interplanetary missions. Oh happy day. [Futurism explains](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/) : According to [a NASA] study, a flexible and durable cable with a space station counterweight could serve as a viable space elevator. A mechanical “climber” — using magnetic levitation or rollers along the tether — would then carry many tons of equipment or people into orbit. Although such a project would cost in the tens of billions, it would eventually pay for itself by providing much cheaper space travel to a greatly expanded market. The question is: can we do this? Kurzgesagt (a.k.a. "in a nutshell") explores the state of affairs in [this entertaining video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?...
-# Forecasts: 357
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: When will we get the last communication from Voyager 1?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/943/when-will-we-get-the-last-communication-from-voyager-1/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Launched in September, 1977, the Voyager 1 spacecraft is currently the most distant manmade object in space. Amazingly, it continues to "phone home" even from its position [beyond the heliosheath](https://eyes.jpl.nasa.gov/eyes-on-voyager.html) . How we keep in touch with this little spacehip that could--currently 141 AUs away from us [and counting](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/), as of April 30, 2018--is astonishing. As [NASA explains](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/did-you-know/) : The sensitivity of our deep-space tracking antennas located around the world is truly amazing. The antennas must capture Voyager information from a signal so weak that the power striking the antenna is only 10 exponent -16 watts (1 part in 10 quadrillion). A modern-day electronic digital watch operates at a power level 20 billion times greater than this feeble level. Alas, in spite of all this awesome science, Voyager 1's days are numbered. Its fuel is nearly spent. In just a few years...
-# Forecasts: 115
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/953/will-mike-pence-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-in-2024/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 5%
-Description: [Mike Pence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Pence) is the 48th vice president of the United States. He was previously the governor of Indiana and a member of the US House of Representatives. Some have [speculated](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/mike-pence-s-2024-presidential-campaign-has-already-begun) that Pence will run for president in 2024. Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024? This question resolves positive if Mike Pence wins the US presidency and is sworn into office by February of 2025.
-# Forecasts: 213
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 15%
-Description: Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust ("Lock him up!"), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities. Donald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career. For him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last. 1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case). 2) He would have to be eligible to be indicted. This means that either a) he is no longer President, or b) it is decided that a sitting President can be indicted (a matter of legal controversy at the moment) 3) A prosecutor or grand jury would have to decide that he should be indicted. 4) He would have to be found guilty. 5) A judge would have to decide on a sentence that included time in jail. 6) The sentence starts before a pardon oc...
-# Forecasts: 1158
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will cost-adjusted IT technology be worse than it was 8 years (32 quarters) ago in at least one quarter prior to 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/968/will-cost-adjusted-it-technology-be-worse-than-it-was-8-years-32-quarters-ago-in-at-least-one-quarter-prior-to-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 26%
-Description: We often take the advance of IT technology for granted and even believe it to be progressing at an exponential rate. While Moore's Law has (by some definitions) continued to hold, the data economists have generated when they estimated [the amount of investment required to have equal quality IT equipment over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B935RG3Q086SBEA), reveals that in some sense progress has slowed down. While quality progress was exponential for a long time too, the last approximately ten years have not been all that great. The inverse of the linked-to index can be seen as a kind of estimation of the quality of information technology at a given time. (The predictor is encouraged to export the data into excel and look at the evolution of the inverse of the index and the percentage improvement over the last 8 years over time.) For example(s), the percentage increase in quality between Q1 1990 and Q1 1998 was 333.5%; the percentage increase in quality between Q1 2000 and ...
-# Forecasts: 128
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will commercial supersonic flight return?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/969/when-will-commercial-supersonic-flight-return/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The last 115 years of humankind’s relationship with air travel has been mindboggling. On December 17, 1903, Orville and Wilbur Wright lifted off in the [fields of Kitty Hawk](https://airandspace.si.edu/exhibitions/wright-brothers/online/fly/1903/) . The era of human air travel was born. But skeptics abounded. Yes, we could fly. But could we fly fly? For instance, one famous early doubter told reporters in 1909 that “no airship will ever fly from New York to Paris.” The name of this skeptic? [Wilbur Wright himself!](http://blog.fastforwardlabs.com/2015/08/05/a-flying-machine-from-new-york-to-paris.html) Just 38 years later, American pilot and legendary daredevil, Chuck Yeager, broke the manned supersonic flight barrier in USAF aircraft #46-062, a.k.a. the [Glamorous Glennis](https://airandspace.si.edu/collection-objects/bell-x-1) . Wired Magazine offers some of the [juicy engineering details](https://www.wired.com/story/its-the-70th-anniversary-of-the-first-supersonic-flight/) of Yea...
-# Forecasts: 268
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 23%
-Description: While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins. In order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/) . It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that t...
-# Forecasts: 545
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 67%
-Description: Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval. In 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that. Canada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year. Will America follow by 2024? Resolution is positive if by start of 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US.
-# Forecasts: 357
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1002/any-progress-in-human-lifespan-enhancement-by-2100/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 91%
-Description: There have been great improvements in medical technology in the last few centuries, which has led to very significant increases in [life expectancy]( https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy) . Yet, while medical technology has stopped the vast majority of us dying young, it has not been very effective at increasing the maximum age that humans can live to. [Ramesses II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_II) lived to the age of 90, even though the life expectancy in ancient Egypt might have been below 30. Similarly, the English aristocracy between 1500-1550 already had a life expectancy of 71, meaning that quite a few of them will have lived into their 80s. The oldest person the world, as of the writing of this question, is aged 117. It is unclear whether anybody in the ancient world lived to a similar age (there were many claims of extreme age and very poor record keeping), but it certainly does not seem completely impossible. Recently, though, there have been attempts to actual...
-# Forecasts: 300
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 26%
-Description: Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. Will Roe vs. Wade be reversed? We specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy? Resolution is positive if, before the stipulated date, 1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds: 1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an aborti...
-# Forecasts: 361
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will there be a city on Earth with a population of over 100 million by 2100?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1052/will-there-be-a-city-on-earth-with-a-population-of-over-100-million-by-2100/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 56.00000000000001%
-Description: For a mostly hairless, fangless species that was likely reduced to [just a few thousand members](https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2012/10/22/163397584/how-human-beings-almost-vanished-from-earth-in-70-000-b-c) in relatively recent times by a volcano, we've certainly been busy. The human population on Earth now exceeds 7 billion. And we're still growing. [Not everyone](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rvuueqs3vI) is thrilled by this. But it's reality. Currently, as of Q2 2018, Tokyo, Japan is the world's largest metropolis, cramming [over 38,000,000 people](https://www.worldatlas.com/citypops.htm) (give or take) into its borders. But by the end of the century, we could (and probably will) witness far grander cities. Per Canadian demographers, Daniel Hoornweg and Kevin Pope, for instance, Lagos in Nigeria may swell to 100+M by 2100 if trends continue. Face 2 Face Africa has the story: By 2100 if Nigeria’s population continues to grow and people move to cities at the same rate as no...
-# Forecasts: 270
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How long will the Great Pyramids be recognizable?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1056/how-long-will-the-great-pyramids-be-recognizable/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The ancient pyramids of Egypt are ridiculously cool. Construction began over 4500 years ago, and these awesome structures, despite having [been raided](http://www.ancient-egypt-online.com/ancient-egypt-tomb-robbers.html) over the centuries and stripped of their beautiful [white limestone](https://www.fastcodesign.com/3037815/the-great-pyramid-used-to-be-so-shiny-it-glowed) exteriors, inspire millions. Rebuilding them would be a massive project, although it probably could be done for a cool [$5 billion](https://www.livescience.com/18589-cost-build-great-pyramid-today.html) or so--for just the Great Pyramid of Giza, that is. They've lasted 5 millennia, and they will almost certainly endure after every human alive today is long dead. But the pyramids will not last forever. As this [Quora post](https://www.quora.com/If-humanity-died-today-how-long-would-the-pyramids-of-Giza-last) notes: The Rocky mountains in the US were formed over ~70 million years, ~70 million years ago. If geologic pr...
-# Forecasts: 198
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered "under serious threat" by 2040?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1058/will-humanity-essentially-run-out-of-at-least-one-element-currently-considered-under-serious-threat-by-2040/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 34%
-Description: In 2008, science fiction author, Robert Silverberg, penned a provocative web essay, [The Death of Galium](https://web.archive.org/web/20080704170435/http://www.asimovs.com/_issue_0806/ref.shtml), that predicted that we would collectively run out of several essential, rare elements within a single decade. Per Silverberg: The element gallium is in very short supply and the world may well run out of it in just a few years. Indium is threatened too, says Armin Reller, a materials chemist at Germany’s University of Augsburg. He estimates that our planet’s stock of indium will last no more than another decade. All the hafnium will be gone by 2017 also, and another twenty years will see the extinction of zinc. Even copper is an endangered item, since worldwide demand for it is likely to exceed available supplies by the end of the present century. Silverberg's dire fears have not (yet!) come to pass, but the [American Chemical Society (ACS)](https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/greenchemistry/re...
-# Forecasts: 183
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1059/before-2051-will-a-meteor-cause-more-injuries-than-the-one-that-shook-chelyabinsk-russia-in-2013/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 50%
-Description: In February, 2013, a meteor [scorched](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggLTPyRXUKc) the Russian skies. EarthSky gives the [key details](http://earthsky.org/space/meteor-asteroid-chelyabinsk-russia-feb-15-2013) : A small asteroid with an estimated size of 65 feet... was moving at 12 miles per second (~19 km/sec) when it struck the protective blanket of air around our planet, which did its job and caused the asteroid to explode. The bright, hot explosion took place only about 20 miles (30 km) above the city of Chelyabinsk in Russia and carried 20 to 30 times the energy of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Its shock wave broke windows and knocked down parts of buildings in six Russian cities and caused some 1,500 people to seek medical attention for injuries, mostly from flying glass. It's only a matter of time before more space rocks as big as (or bigger than) the one that caused the Chelyabinsk Event find their way to Earth. Before 2051-01-01, will an event cause more injuries than the Chelya...
-# Forecasts: 36
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will there be a 9 foot tall human by 2075?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1061/will-there-be-a-9-foot-tall-human-by-2075/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 21%
-Description: Born in 1918, Robert Wadlow grew to enormous size and scraped the skies at 8' 11" thanks to hormonal issue that tragically also led to a cacade of health problems. He died in 1940 of consequences from an infection. Other people have crested the 8' tall mark, but they are few and far between, and no one's come close to Wadlow's record, at least according to the [officials at Guinness](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/tallest-man-ever/) . Can people ever grow to 9 feet tall or even beyond? This [article from The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2004/may/06/thisweekssciencequestions3) points out that: Normally, the growth of our bones is limited by our sex hormones. A good burst of sex hormones at the right time tells the ends of our bones to stop growing. In acromegalic gigantism, as the tumour grows, it destroys cells in the pituitary gland that stimulate the release of sex hormones. The bones, therefore, never get the signal to stop growing. But surely th...
-# Forecasts: 223
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the student loan debt bubble "pop"?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1085/when-will-the-student-loan-debt-bubble-pop/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: It's an open secret that student loan debts are crippling millions of Americans – particularly Millennials. [CNBC estimated](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/15/heres-how-much-the-average-student-loan-borrower-owes-when-they-graduate.html) that nearly 3 out of 4 college grads leave school "with a significant amount of loans" and estimates that Americans have around $1.5 trillion in student debt, collectively. That's "trillion" with a "T". See [this link for additional up-to-date numbers.](https://careerswiki.com/student-loan-debt-statistics/) In November 2017, Rolling Stone columnist Matt Taibbi reported on the crisis in [apocalyptic terms](https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/taibbi-the-great-college-loan-swindle-w510880) : The average amount of debt for a student leaving school is skyrocketing even faster than the rate of tuition increase. In 2016, for instance, the average amount of debt for an exiting college graduate was a staggering $37,172. That's a rise of six percent o...
-# Forecasts: 154
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the last member of our species, homo sapiens, be born?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1088/when-will-the-last-member-of-our-species-homo-sapiens-be-born/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The scientific definition of "species" is surprisingly complicated. As this [November 2017 article](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/defining-species-fuzzy-art) from Science News explains: At first glance, “species” is a basic vocabulary word schoolchildren can ace on a test by reciting something close to: a group of living things that create fertile offspring when mating with each other but not when mating with outsiders. Ask scientists who devote careers to designating those species, however, and there’s no typical answer. Scientists do not agree. For the sake of this question, though, let's just go with [this definition from Berkeley](https://evolution.berkeley.edu/evolibrary/article/evo_41) : "a group of individuals that actually or potentially interbreed in nature." Evolution marches on relentlessly. We homo sapiens – even armed with our technology and collective stored-and-shared wisdom--are not immune to this ceaseless force. At some point, our descendants will be so physica...
-# Forecasts: 201
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 38%
-Description: On November 22, 1963, Lee Harvey Oswald shot President John F. Kennedy in Dallas as he proceeded down the street in a motorcade. Kennedy died shortly thereafter, and the nation descended into mourning. The [JFK assassination](https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/November-22-1963-Death-of-the-President.aspx) not only led to countless conspiracy theories, but it also led to better Presidential security measures. JFK was the last President killed in office. But he wasn't the first. Our nation's checkered history has witnessed a disturbing number of assassinations, including: --- John Wilkes Booth famously killed [President Abraham Lincoln](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/john-wilkes-booth-shoots-abraham-lincoln) on April 14, 1865. --- Charles J. Guiteau shot and killed [President James Garfield](http://americanhistory.si.edu/presidency/3d1d.html) on September 19, 1881. --- Leon Czolgosz, an anarchist, shot [President William McKinley](http://www.historynet.com/pre...
-# Forecasts: 277
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Ray Kurzweil be proven right?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1321/will-ray-kurzweil-be-proven-right/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 25%
-Description: Ray Kurzweil is an author, computer scientist, inventor and futurist. He is best known for making what many consider to be extremely optimistic prediction about the future of technology that involve exponential growth leading up to [technological singularity]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity), which Kurzweil predicts will happen circa. 2045. A list of Kurzweil's predictions can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil) . It is asked: Will Ray Kurzweil be proven generally right in his predictions? Note that the question refers to Kurzweil's predictions as of the time of the the writing of the question. Given that 'generally right' is hard to define, the question shall use consensus forming to create its own answer.
If the community prediction at the time of closing is > 80%, then the questions resolves positive.
If the community prediction at the time of closing is < 20%, then the questions resolves negati...
-# Forecasts: 191
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1332/will-global-malaria-mortality-rates-be-reduced-by-90-when-compared-with-2015-rates-by-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 33%
-Description: In the [2017 WHO Malaria report](http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/259492/9789241565523-eng.pdf?sequence=1), the WHO defines various goals for reduction of malaria burden worldwide. One of which is a 90% reduction, or more, in worldwide malaria mortality by 2030, compared with 2015 levels. (see p. 43 for current numbers, and trendlines. The "global" value is the relevant one here.) Will this goal be realized? The WHO publishes an annual report on malaria, in which they report on the previous year's mortality rate. This metric should be used to decide whether the goal has been reached.
-# Forecasts: 223
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Drake's Equation 1st Parameter R∗: What is the average rate of formation of suitable stars (stars/year) in our galaxy?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337/drakes-equation-1st-parameter-r/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This is the first question of the [Fermi paradox series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) . In a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) Dissolving the Fermi Paradox by Anders Sandberg, Eric Drexler & Toby Ord of the Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, the Drake's Equation was run as a Monte Carlo Simulation rather than a point estimate using the following distributions for the parameters of the Drake's Equation; Parameter Distribution: --- log-uniform from 1 to 100. --- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. --- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. --- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). --- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. --- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. --- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. I thought Metaculus would be able to produce distribution more reflective of our current knowledge, and allow the possibility of running Monte Carlo simulation more reflective of the possible outcomes of the Drake's Equa...
-# Forecasts: 232
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Drake's Equation 2nd parameter f_p: What fraction of stars form planets?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1338/drakes-equation-2nd-parameter-f_p/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This is the second question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox. The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337) The model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters: --- log-uniform from 1 to 100. --- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. --- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. --- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). --- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. --- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. --- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. In this case we will be addressing the second parameter in Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of the stars in the first parameter with planets. Predictors should use the sliders to best approximate their estimate and uncertainties in this parameter. All evidence seems to indicate t...
-# Forecasts: 250
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Drake's Equation 3rd parameter n_e: What is the average number of habitable planets per star?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-3rd-parameter-n_e/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This is the third question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox. The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337) The model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters: --- log-uniform from 1 to 100. --- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. --- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. --- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). --- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. --- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. --- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. In this case we will be addressing the third parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the number of planets, per star system, with an environment suitable for (though not necessarily possessing) life. We include suitable moons in this count. Predictors should use the sliders to make t...
-# Forecasts: 233
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Drake's Equation 4th parameter f_l: On what fraction of habitable planets does any form of life emerge?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1340/drakes-equation-4th-parameter-f_l/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This is the fourth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox. The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337) The model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters: --- log-uniform from 1 to 100. --- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. --- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. --- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). --- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. --- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. --- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. In this case we will be addressing the fourth parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of suitable planets (see some discussion at the [relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-question-set-what-is-the-average-number-of-habitable-planet...
-# Forecasts: 284
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Drake's Equation 5th parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1341/drakes-equation-5th-parameter-f_i/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This is the fifth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox. The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337) The model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters. In this case we will be addressing the fifth parameter in Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of life-bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges. This is pretty ill-defined but for our purposes we shall define intelligent life as a type capable of (a) symbolic representation and communication of a description of actions and objects, i.e. language, and (b) use of tools. Under this definition on Earth Humans would count as well as probably several type of nonhuman primates, many cetaceans, and some types of birds. There being no obvious sourc...
-# Forecasts: 231
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox. The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337) The model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters. In this case we will be addressing the sixth parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space. Anything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intelligent life suffices. Radio signals are the technology that most suspect will bring about that resolution, but laser light, physical relics, and even gravitational waves can be considered. Given our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it see...
-# Forecasts: 247
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1343/drakes-equation-7th-parameter-l/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This is the seventh question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox. The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337) The model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters. In this case we will be assessing the seventh parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the average length of time, in years, that civilizations capable of being detected remain detectable. It could be very short since the technology for radio and nuclear weapons emerge fairly close together. It could also be very long if a civilization (even a relatively short-lived one) were to release a lot of later-detectable and widespread artifacts. The resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remain...
-# Forecasts: 228
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1348/will-a-mission-to-land-a-spacecraft-on-europa-launch-by-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 40%
-Description: Europa provides astrobiologists with the best possibility of finding extraterrestrial life within our solar system. Many scientists believe that beneath the icy surface of Europa there lies a [vast saltwater ocean](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/moons/jupiter-moons/europa/in-depth/) . It is because of the presence of this large body of liquid water beneath the surface that scientists believe that Europa may provide insight into the origins of life. Galileo Galilei discovered Europa and the other Galilean moons in 1610. In 1979 Voyager 2 gave us our [first closeup image](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/spaceimages/details.php?id=pia00459) of the moon (click [here](https://www.space.com/15498-europa-sdcmp.html) for a complete list of missions to Europa). During the [Galileo Mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/galileo/) (1989-2003) Galileo passed near Europa and provided compelling evidence for the existence of saltwater oceans beneath the icy surface. Then in 2013, the Hubble Telescope su...
-# Forecasts: 132
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1385/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-psilocybin-be-a-clinically-approved-treatment-for-end-of-life-anxiety-by-2027/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 63%
-Description: This is the second in a [three-part series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--qualia-research-institute) of questions suggested by the [Qualia Research Institute](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/), with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always interesting [QualiaComputing.com](https://qualiacomputing.com/) Psilocybin, the active compound that gives magic mushrooms their magic, is classified as a Schedule 1 drug by the FDA, making legal research very time-consuming and expensive. Like MDMA, it is a psychedelic drug that has well-documented effects on a number of behavioral disorders, and yet is categorized by the government as a highly addictive, unsafe substance with no conceivable medicinal use. It is also in the public domain, and therefore virtually impossible to profit from. Despite the fact that academics must pay over [13 times the price of the drug as its sold on the street,](https://qz.com/1235963/scientists...
-# Forecasts: 240
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will AI progress surprise us?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 75%
-Description: What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)? Discontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/), discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to:
A party gaining decisive strategic advantage
A single important ‘deployment’ event
Other very s...
-# Forecasts: 473
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1402/will-parker-solar-probe-survive-its-24-loops-around-the-sun-while-getting-just-a-few-million-miles-away-from-the-surface-of-our-star/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 75%
-Description: The Parker Solar Probe rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral, Florida. The probe is set to become the fastest-moving manmade object in history. Its data promises to crack longstanding mysteries about the Sun's behaviour. Over the course of seven years, Parker will make 24 loops around our star to study the physics of the corona, the place where much of the important activity that affects the Earth seems to originate. The probe will dip inside this tenuous atmosphere, sampling conditions, and getting to just 6.16 million km (3.83 million miles) from the Sun's broiling "surface". "I realise that might not sound that close, but imagine the Sun and the Earth were a metre apart. Parker Solar Probe would be just 4cm away from the Sun," [explained Dr Nicky Fox,](https://gizmodo.com/setsession?r=https%3A%2F%2Fgizmodo.com%2Fwatch-nasa-launch-its-sun-skimming-parker-solar-probe-1828287380&sessionId=b41ac5b6-da5b-4091-8443-5519304f636b) the UK-born project scientist who is affiliated to the J...
-# Forecasts: 135
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Does P = NP? Informally: If the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem be easy to solve?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1408/does-p--np-informally-if-the-solution-to-a-problem-is-easy-to-check-for-correctness-must-the-problem-be-easy-to-solve/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 4%
-Description: P vs. NP is one of the most famous and important problems in computer science. Informally: if the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem also be easy to solve? Aside from being an important problem in computational theory, a proof either way would have profound implications for mathematics, cryptography, algorithm research, artificial intelligence, game theory, multimedia processing, philosophy, economics and many other fields. The problem was included in [the Millennium Prize Problems list published by Clay Mathematics Institute](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem), the solutions to which will be awarded 1 million $ prize. A good introduction to the problem is [YouTube video "P vs. NP and the Computational Complexity Zoo" by hackerdashery.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YX40hbAHx3s) The question asks: IF the Millennium Prize is awarded for providing a correct proof during this century, will P = NP? If no award is given du...
-# Forecasts: 198
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will one TeraFlOPS cost $1?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1416/when-will-one-teraflops-cost-1/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The performance capabilities of computers (e.g. CPUs, GPUs and Supercomputers) are expressed in [floating point operations per second (FLOPS)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FLOPS), a standard rate for indicating the number of floating-point arithmetic calculations systems can perform per second. Currently (09/09/2018), the [ NVIDIA TITAN V GPU]( https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/titan/titan-v/), has one of the lowest theoretical performance cost at $27.27 per TFLOPS ( FLOPS), with a price of $3000 and a theoretical peak performance of 110 Tensor TFLOPS. However, theoretical peak performance relies on the accelerating parts, and generally does not involve other hardware such as memory, network or I/O devices. [An analysis of GPU performance](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0010465511000452), finds that theoretical predictions of maximum theoretical performance of three different GPUs to be higher by around 30% when compared to experimental results. [Similar work on CPUs ]...
-# Forecasts: 139
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will a fifth nation be able to launch people into space?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1431/when-will-a-fifth-nation-be-able-to-launch-people-into-space/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: On 12 Apr 1961 the first [Soviet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vostok_programme) flies into space. On 20 Feb 1962 the first [American](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/mercury/index.html) flies into space. On 15 Oct 2003 the first [Chinese](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_space_program) flies into space. India plans to send an astronaut [on their own rocket](https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/simply-put-how-to-send-an-indian-into-space-isro-maned-mission-5308964/) by 2022, [though there’s some doubt](https://www.dw.com/en/indias-astronaut-mission-will-push-space-program-to-the-limit/a-45108320) about that. That’s it. Currently there are only two nations capable of sending people into orbit on their own: Russia and China, with the US about to regain their ability. Part of this can certainly be attributed to the Space Race pushing the envelope of what’s technologically doable, and one might justifiably argue that the accomplishments were made on an immature technology ...
-# Forecasts: 173
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 65%
-Description: In the 1970s Gerard K. O’Neill wrote and published his seminal work, [The High Frontier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_High_Frontier:_Human_Colonies_in_Space#cite_note-3) . In it O’Neill first paints a picture of habitats floating in space, with people living on the insides of cylinders kilometres long, and then describes how one could accomplish this from an engineering perspective with the Space Shuttle, then still in the planning stages. The Shuttle turned out to be more expensive and less reusable than it was optimistically lauded to be, but it stands to reason: where are the space settlements? Certainly not in low earth orbit. But they don’t have to be. [What once pushed the envelope of the technically feasible is now well established as doable](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/) . The [Mir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir) was an initially Soviet, later Russian space station from 1986–1996, crewed for almost t...
-# Forecasts: 491
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1433/will-the-fraction-of-american-18-24-year-olds-enrolled-in-colleges-in-2025-be-10-less-than-were-enrolled-in-2015/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 20%
-Description: In the US, enrollment in 4-year colleges has been steadily increasing since the 1970s, [from around 17.1% to 29.9% in 2015.](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.60.asp ) Despite this, the economist Bryan Caplan [has recently argued](https://press.princeton.edu/titles/11225.html) that this time spent in college by an increasing proportion of youth is wasteful, as the primary function of education is not to enhance students' skill but to certify their intelligence, work ethic, and conformity — in other words, to signal the qualities of a good employee. As increasing numbers of students get more degrees, the harder it becomes to remain competitive in the job market without spending lots of time in education — essentially creating a prisoner's dilemma in which it is individually rational, but socially harmful to waste evermore time getting degrees. This has made some confident that educational enrolment will only increase over time, including the aforementioned economi...
-# Forecasts: 185
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will India send their first own astronauts to space?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station) . With China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme) . Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic. The currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘ [a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelea...
-# Forecasts: 218
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the longest spaceflight of any one person reach 5 years?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1435/when-will-the-longest-spaceflight-of-any-one-person-reach-5-years/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The [ISS year long mission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISS_year_long_mission) set out to explore the health effects of long duration spaceflight. Astronaut Scott Kelly and cosmonaut Mikhail Kornienko spent 342 days in space for this mission, checking their health but they were also keeping a journal to write down how they felt. After all, there are more angles to consider than just physical health for these kind of things. But this wasn't the first mission of its kind. There were three other, longer spaceflights, lasting 365, 379 and 437 days respectively. So we wonder: When will longest duration anyone has ever been in space surpass 5 years? Will resolve when the same person has been continuously in space for 5 years or longer.
-# Forecasts: 118
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1444/will-an-openly-lgbtq-person-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-by-2041/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 15%
-Description: The LGBTQ movement has made [massive strides](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/19/us/lgbt-rights-milestones-fast-facts/index.html) during the 21st century in the United States. Less than 60 years ago engaging in consensual homosexual acts in private was [illegal](http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1989-06-26/news/8902120553_1_gay-bar-anti-gay-activists-first-openly-gay-supervisor) in parts of the country. But progress has been undeniable. In 2015 the U.S. Supreme Court [legalized gay marriage](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/26/politics/supreme-court-same-sex-marriage-ruling/index.html) just seven years after the country elected its first President who was not a straight white male. Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041? New resolution criteria: This question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must, during the campaign, either: ---Publicly identify as something else than cisgender. ---Public...
-# Forecasts: 180
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: A freer China? Chinese political rights and civil liberties in 2028
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1454/a-freer-china-chinese-political-rights-and-civil-liberties-in-2028/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: According to Freedom House, an NGO, China’s authoritarian regime has become increasingly repressive in recent years. The ruling Chinese Communist Party is tightening its control over the media, online speech, religious groups, and civil society associations while undermining already modest rule-of-law reforms. Last year, [Party authorities tightened political, social, and media restrictions in Beijing and across China in the months ahead of the October gathering](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/06/chinas-golden-week-ends-but-the-communist-party-congress-will-keep-the-holiday-mood-up.html ) . Implementation of a [Cybersecurity Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Internet_Security_Law) and other new regulations resulted in a crackdown on VPNs, penalties for private technology companies whose censorship measures were deemed insufficient, tighter enforcement of [real-name registration rules online](https://techcrunch.com/2017/08/27/china-doubles-down-on-real-name-registration-laws-forbid...
-# Forecasts: 150
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1457/will-angela-merkel-remain-chancellor-after-the-next-german-federal-elections/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 1%
-Description: Angela Merkel has been head of German Government since 2005, when she was elected by the Bundestag into office. Her most recent, fourth cabinet was formed with the votes of CDU/CSU and SPD, a so-called grand coalition. A brief overview on her: Merkel entered politics shortly after the Berlin Wall fell, joining a local political party that later united with the CDU. She stood for election in her constituency shortly after reunification of former East Germany with West Germany, becoming a member of Bundestag, a position she’s held since 1991. In the CDU and parliament she was quickly recognised for her competency and appointed Minister for Women and Youth by Helmut Kohl, later promoted to Minister for the Environment and Nuclear Safety. With the defeat of the CDU federal elections in 1998 Merkel became secretary-general in her party, a prominent and powerful position. She was elected party leader of the CDU in 2000, after her patron (and also former party leader) Kohl and his chosen suc...
-# Forecasts: 340
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 90%
-Description: Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well). The current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him. Hu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests....
-# Forecasts: 280
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will we know what Dark Matter is before 2050?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1469/will-we-know-what-dark-matter-is-before-2050/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 50%
-Description: The universe is thought to contain: ---only around 5% of ordinary matter ---25% Dark Matter ---70% Dark Energy In other words, we don't know what 95% of the universe is made of. Presence of [Dark matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_matter) is implied in a variety of astrophysical observations, including gravitational effects that cannot be explained unless more matter is present than can be seen. [Dark energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_energy) is an unknown form of energy which is hypothesized to permeate all of space, tending to accelerate the expansion of the universe. Dark energy is the most accepted hypothesis to explain the observations since the 1990s indicating that the universe is expanding at an accelerating rate. [What is Dark Matter and Dark Energy? by Kurzgesagt – In a Nutshell](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAa2O_8wBUQ) is an approachable introduction to the topic. The question asks whether a Nobel Prize will be awarded before 2050 for work done primar...
-# Forecasts: 199
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 5%
-Description: Landing people on Mars is a longstanding ambition of NASA. Wikipedia [lists 17 crewed Mars mission proposed by NASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans), with the first one from 1960. The latest is the ["Moon to Mars"](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/moon-to-mars/overview) idea, as stated in Space Policy Directive-1: The NASA Administrator shall, 'Lead an innovative and sustainable program of exploration with commercial and international partners to enable human expansion across the solar system and to bring back to Earth new knowledge and opportunities. Beginning with missions beyond low-Earth orbit, the United States will lead the return of humans to the Moon for long-term exploration and utilization, followed by human missions to Mars and other destinations.' The general ambition seems to be achieving [landing people on Mars around 2030](https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/nss_chart_v23.pdf) . [Metaculus has very similar and popular question...
-# Forecasts: 286
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will any intelligent living being (human descendants, aliens, etc.) ever listen to the copy of Blind Willie Johnson's "Dark Was the Night" on Voyager I's Golden Record?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1480/will-any-intelligent-living-being-human-descendants-aliens-etc-ever-listen-to-the-copy-of-blind-willie-johnsons-dark-was-the-night-on-voyager-is-golden-record/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 4%
-Description: Launched Mon, 05 Sept 1977 at 12:56:00 UTC, Voyager 1 has intrepidly made its way all the way to [interstellar space](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/) . Wow. The probe carries with it mementos from Earth, including the so-called Golden Record. Per NASA, this [phonograph](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/golden-record/) is "a 12-inch gold-plated copper disk containing sounds and images selected to portray the diversity of life and culture on Earth." One of the most haunting, emotional pieces on that record is a wordless gospel blues song called " [Dark Was the Night, Cold Was the Ground](https://www.mojo4music.com/articles/7919/blind-willie-johnson-left-solar-system) " by the artist Blind Willie Johnson. Voyager 1 is on track to fly by the [star AC +79 3888](https://www.space.com/22783-voyager-1-interstellar-space-star-flyby.html) (currently nearly 18 light years from Earth) in 40,000 years, give or take a few. Odds are, the craft (and the record on it) will last [billions of y...
-# Forecasts: 172
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will either the Democratic or Republican party in the US cease to exist?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1481/when-will-either-the-democratic-or-republican-party-in-the-us-cease-to-exist/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: All political parties eventually come to an end. Most U.S. political buffs have at least a glancing familiarity with the [demise of the Whigs](http://www.let.rug.nl/usa/essays/1801-1900/the-american-whig-party/the-end-of-the-party.php) in the mid-19th century. But other enduring partisan institutions have also fallen by the wayside--with some frequency, in fact--during our nation's history. (Consider, for instance, the [Federalists](https://www.history.com/topics/early-us/federalist-party), the [Free Soil Party](https://www.u-s-history.com/pages/h139.html), the [Know Nothings](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/immigrants-conspiracies-and-secret-society-launched-american-nativism-180961915/), the [list goes on](https://www.thoughtco.com/extinct-political-parties-of-the-1800s-1773940) .) For as long as any living American can attest, however, the Democrats and Republicans have dominated our institutions. But this equillibrium eventually must give way. As Slate's Reihan Salam [point...
-# Forecasts: 127
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What percentage of Americans will be considered obese or overweight in 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1482/what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-considered-obese-or-overweight-in-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The obesity epidemic has been ravaging not just the United States but [much of the world](http://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/obesity-and-overweight) over the past 35-40 years. Critics of the current Dietary Guidelines point out that the emergence of the [obesity epidemic coincided with new government advice to eat less fat and more carbohydrate](https://www.dietdoctor.com/introduction-dietary-guidelines-start-obesity-epidemic) . (In 2018, the U.S. government [still mandates](https://www.nutritioncoalition.us/dietary-guidelines-for-americans-dga-introduction) a low fat/high carb plan for all Americans over the age of 2, despite the fact that low carbohydrate diets have [whalloped](https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/23-studies-on-low-carb-and-low-fat-diets) low fat diets in clinical trials.) In any event, the origins of this disaster notwithstanding, things are clearly getting worse, year after year. Per a recent analysis in The Lancet (described [here](http://www.healthda...
-# Forecasts: 271
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer in 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1492/what-will-be-top500s-1-performing-supercomputer-as-a-multiple-of-the-500-performer-in-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Top500 has been compiling charts and reports on the supercomputing industry for a long time. [Here](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) is a graph showing impressive gains in performance in terms of Flop/s. In June of 1993, the #1 performer was at 59.7 GFlop/s, versus the #500 performer at 0.4 GFlop/s, which is a multiple of 149.25. In June of 2018, the #1 performer was 122.3 PFlop/s, versus the #500 performer at 0.7156 PFlop/s, for a multiple of 170.9. This relative gap has been in a pretty stable range for many years. In June 2007 the multiple went down to only 70.15, and June 2016 it got up to 325.06, but it has tended to stay within a range so far. Would we expect such a performance multiple to stay in this range in the future? What might change this roughly-a-factor-of-100 lead in supercomputing Flop/s? Estimate what this multiple will be in the year 2030. Resolution will be based on Top500's reporting on the subject, using the first number reported for 2030. If their re...
-# Forecasts: 88
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 24%
-Description: It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Those that are especially large in scope and severe in intensity are global catastrophic risks, which are risks that could inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale. Until relatively recently, most global catastrophic risks were natural, such as the supervolcano episodes and asteroidal/cometary impacts that led to mass extinctions millions of years ago. Other natural risks might include a pandemic of naturally occurring disease, non-anthropogenic climate change, supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and spontaneous decay of cosmic vacuum state. Humanity has survived these natural existential risks for hundreds of thousands of years; which suggests that it is not any of these that will do us in within the next hundred. By contrast, through technological advances, our species is introducing entirely new kinds of risks, anthropogenic risks, which are man-made threats that have no track r...
-# Forecasts: 238
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 25%
-Description: The invention of nuclear weapons gave humanity the technical capacity to cause devastation on a hitherto unseen scale. Although there have been no nuclear attacks since the Second World War, we have come close to inadvertent and intentional nuclear war on a number of occasions. The Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 was a direct and dangerous confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War and was the moment when the two nuclear superpowers came closest to nuclear conflict. U.S. president John F. Kennedy estimated the odds of nuclear war at "somewhere between one out of three and even". Twenty events that might be considered ‘near-miss’ incidents – incidents that could potentially have resulted in unintended nuclear detonation or explosion – [have been reported in declassified documents](https://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) . There are potentially more ‘near-misses’ that have remained classified and concealed. Moreover...
-# Forecasts: 185
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 22%
-Description: Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner. In a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), the median expert estimated that there is a 50% chance of human-level artificial intelligence by 2062, and after this milestone were reached, respondents reported a 10% chance that superintelligence would be achieved within two years. [Our very own question on the prospect of human-machine intelligence parity by 2040](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2...
-# Forecasts: 244
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the eventual consensus explanation of star KIC 8462852 variability be an intervening molecular cloud?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1497/will-the-eventual-consensus-explanation-of-star-kic-8462852-variability-be-an-intervening-molecular-cloud/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 30%
-Description: This star (aka "Tabby's Star) has been puzzling us for a few years now. Its highly variable apparent magnitude doesn't fit the pattern for other variable stars or stars with eclipsing companions or transiting exoplanets. To date, the dips in brightness do not exhibit any periodicity at all. Even worse, the dips in the luminosity graphs are asymmetrical (gradual onset, sudden reset). For lots of background and prior Metaculus discussion, see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/467/) and [this one.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/110/) . Most attention has been aimed at eclipsing objects orbiting the star itself, and our prior questions had rather short time horizons. Now I put forward my own pet theory as a binary question with open-ended close: Until such time as the scientific community does a face-palm and says "yeah, of course that's what it was!", is the explanation some passing interstellar gas and/or dust? From [this paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.03505.pd...
-# Forecasts: 54
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 15%
-Description: [According to current IPCC estimates](http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf), unmitigated greenhouse emissions are likely to lead to global temperature increases of 2.6ºC-4.8ºC by 2100. If this happened, there’d likely be significant humanitarian harms, including more severe weather, food crises, and the spread of infectious diseases which would disproportionately affect the world’s worst off. Moreover, the [estimated humanitarian impacts of climate changes are likely to be highly nonlinear](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks) : marginal temperature increases are expected to cause more damage at already-increased temperatures (i.e. going from 3ºC to 4ºC is expected to be significantly worse than going from 1ºC to 2ºC). [According to some](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks), there is also a non-negligible chance — perhaps around 10% — that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases even h...
-# Forecasts: 282
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 4%
-Description: In 1959, Richard Feynman pointed out that nanometre‐scale machines could be built and operated, and that the precision inherent in molecular construction would make it easy to build multiple identical copies. This raised the possibility of manufacturing at ever increasing speeds, in which production systems could rapidly and cheaply increase their productive capacity. This in turn suggested the possibility of destructive runaway self‐replication. As Eric Drexler, a nanotech pioneer, first warned in [Engines of Creation](http://xaonon.dyndns.org/misc/engines_of_creation.pdf) in 1986 (pg. 146), In a mature form, molecular nanotechnology would enable the construction of bacterium-scale self-replicating mechanical robots that can feed on dirt or other organic matter. Such replicators could eat up the biosphere or destroy it by other means such as by poisoning it, burning it, or blocking out sunlight. Plants with ‘leaves’ no more efficient than today’s solar cells could out‐compete real p...
-# Forecasts: 133
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 26%
-Description: No single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692) . Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353) . The past decades have seen rapid advances in biotechnology, in part due to the falling costs of gene sequencing and synthesis. Improvements in ease-of-use of certain specific kinds of biotechnology bring increased concerns about biological risks. Gene synthesisers have the capacity to turn digital sequence data into physical genetic sequences, enabling individuals to create virus...
-# Forecasts: 188
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many NASA "space launch system" (SLS) launches before 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1503/how-many-nasa-space-launch-system-sls-launches-before-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The first test launch of NASA's new "Space Launch System" rocket was originally scheduled to debut in 2017, but after many delays and cost overruns it [now seems unlikely that the rocket will launch before mid-2021.](http://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-sharply-criticizes-sls-core-stage-development/) Meanwhile, rapid advancements by private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin offer the promise of heavy-lift rockets (Falcon Heavy and New Glenn) with capabilities only slightly less than the SLS for a vastly lower cost. The arrival of these new rockets in the face of ongoing SLS costs and delays could provide strong political pressure to cancel NASA's most expensive human spaceflight program, [perhaps after only a handful of flights.](http://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/nasa-chief-explains-why-agency-wont-buy-a-bunch-of-falcon-heavy-rockets/) On the other hand, the SLS has strong political support at the moment, and it is already deeply interwoven into many aspects of NASA's...
-# Forecasts: 183
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Do humans have functionally important neurogenesis throughout their life?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1515/do-humans-have-functionally-important-neurogenesis-throughout-their-life/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 65%
-Description: For roughly twenty years, since the work of Rusty Gage's group at UCSD circa 1998, neuroscientists have believed that a small amount of functionally significant neurogenesis (NG) occurs in both mammal (mice) and adult primate brains (monkeys). Adult NG was then found in a region called the hippocampus (HC) (and its subregion, the dentate gyrus, or DG). The HC is involved in short-term memory formation, and links to both our emotional centers of our brain (the amygdala) and our cerebral cortex, where our long term memories are stored. This finding was later found for human brains by various studies, and it contradicted the previous longstanding "dogma" that adult brains don't form new neurons. The current leading theory of why NG occurs in the adult HC (if it does) is that it isn't some kind of regulatory failure (cancer, etc.) but that plays some functional role, perhaps in short-term memory storage. In some neuroscience models, we are thought to store massive amounts of info in our ...
-# Forecasts: 133
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1517/will-the-identity-of-bitcoins-founder-satoshi-nakamoto-be-revealed-to-the-general-public-by-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 8%
-Description: Few anonymous people--save maybe [Banksy](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/the-story-behind-banksy-4310304/) and [Qanon](http://nymag.com/selectall/2017/12/qanon-4chan-the-storm-conspiracy-explained.html) --have generated as much press as "Satoshi Nakamoto", the maverick who developed bitcoin. Haven't heard of the man? Here's an executive summary per [The Economist](https://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2018/09/01/satoshi-nakamoto-bitcoins-enigmatic-creator) : ON PAPER—or at least on the blockchain—Satoshi Nakamoto is one of the richest people on the planet.... But Mr Nakamoto, though actively involved with his brainchild in its early history, has been silent since 2011. An army of amateur detectives has been trying to work out who he really is, but there is frustratingly little to go on. While developing bitcoin he claimed to be male, in his late 30s and living in Japan, but even that information is suspect. Will we ever find out his true identity? Speculation abo...
-# Forecasts: 409
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(six+months+in+minutes)+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period) . In the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists. Commercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.c...
-# Forecasts: 268
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will most protons that currently make up Earth (and you) eventually decay?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1535/will-most-protons-that-currently-make-up-earth-and-you-eventually-decay/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 50%
-Description: Warning: This is one of those Metaculus questions with no points actually on the line. It's not going to resolve. What is the ultimate fate of the "stuff" that makes us up? It's mostly protons, which (fortunately) are remarkably durable. After we as individuals die, the material that comprises our bodies at the time of death will mostly likely get recycled into Earth's biosphere. (This isn't 100% guaranteed--some lucky few of us may get to [die on Mars](https://www.popsci.com/how-youll-die-mars) .) And not ALL of the protons in our bodies will remain on Earth. By chance, some will escape into space and roam the void. But what's the long long term fate of the protons of Earth? Perhaps the Earth will be swallowed by the sun in a few billion years. [Or maybe not](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-sun-will-eventually-engulf-earth-maybe/) . But on much longer time scales, many interesting things can happen to our protons: --- We could end up sucked into the black hole at the c...
-# Forecasts: 66
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will a third LIGO detector be built in India by 2027?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1536/will-a-third-ligo-detector-be-built-in-india-by-2027/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 50%
-Description: The [Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/) (LIGO) has been responsible for some tremendously exciting science this decade. ---On [September 14, 2015](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/news/ligo20160211), LIGO detected (through gravitational waves) the merger of two black holes billions of light years away. ---This triumph opened a new era of [gravitational wave astronomy](https://www.space.com/39162-gravitational-waves-new-era-of-astronomy-2017.html), giving us a radical new tool to probe the cosmos. ---LIGO and friends (like VIRGO in Europe) have since seen other black hole mash-ups and even, amazingly, the smashing of [2 neutron stars](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/16/557557544/astronomers-strike-gravitational-gold-in-colliding-neutron-stars) . ---The engineering required to make this observatory hop is [just ridiculous](http://www.kavlifoundation.org/how-ligo-works) . However, per astrophysicist Ethan Siegel, LIGO [misse...
-# Forecasts: 79
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the first cloned human be born?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1537/when-will-the-first-cloned-human-be-born/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In January, Chinese researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Neuroscience in Shanghai shocked the world by publishing evidence that they had [cloned](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(18)30057-6) two female macaques-- [Zhong Zhong and Hua Hua](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/24/zhong-zhong-and-hua-hua-first-primates-born-using-dolly-the-sheep-cloning-method) --using similar techniques to the ones that scientists at The Roslin Institute used to create [Dolly The Sheep](http://dolly.roslin.ed.ac.uk/facts/the-life-of-dolly/index.html) nearly twenty years ago. The Chinese team put a twist on the key process--known as "somatic cell nuclear transfer." Reporters at Futurism summarized their breakthrough: [The transfer process involves] replacing the nucleus in a donor egg with a nucleus taken from a cell from another animal. After scientists use an electric current to make the egg believe it has been fertilized, it will start to develop into an embr...
-# Forecasts: 156
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1538/will-metaculus-predict-that-artificial-intelligence-continues-to-pose-a-global-catastrophic-risk/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 74%
-Description: Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, [and possibly much sooner](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/) . As predictions to [a previous question suggest](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/), artificial intelligence might pose a global catastrophic risk (defined there as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years). When considering how AI might become a risk, experts t...
-# Forecasts: 108
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: 3.6°C global warming by 2100?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1539/36c-global-warming-by-2100/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 31%
-Description: Without additional efforts to reduce GHG emissions beyond those in place today, global emissions growth is expected to persist, driven by growth in global population and economic activities. Global mean surface temperature increases in 2100 in baseline scenarios—those without additional mitigation— [range from 3.7°C to 4.8°C above the average for 1850–1900 for a median climate response](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) . Given these estimates of the baseline scenarios of unmitigated emissions, [studies exploring particular effort-sharing mitigation frameworks](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf), have estimated substantial global financial flows associated with mitigation in scenarios to limit warming during the 21st century to less than 2°C. But [there is also a non-negligible chance](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote4_cwn3csz) that unmitigated emissions w...
-# Forecasts: 129
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Is non-theism (atheists and agnostics) growing globally?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1552/is-non-theism-atheists-and-agnostics-growing-globally/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The ["nones" are rising faster than ever in America](http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/05/13/a-closer-look-at-americas-rapidly-growing-religious-nones/), but globally, non-religious people are currently shrinking as a percentage of the population. Conflicting trends of economic development, evangelism, and fertility complicate predictions of world religiosity. Per a [Pew Research Center](http://www.pewforum.org/2015/04/02/religious-projections-2010-2050/) study from 2015, as reported by [Psychology Today](https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-secular-life/201510/how-many-atheists-are-there) : 1.1 billion people [do not identify with any religion]... which equals about 16.5% of the global adult population. As such, “non-religious” is actually the third largest “religion” in the world, coming only behind Christianity (in first place) and Islam (in second). At the same time, the Pew study projects that as a percentage of the population, non-theists will decline to just 13% b...
-# Forecasts: 179
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: The Rise and Fall of the Banana: Will the current main export cultivar, the Cavendish, be replaced by 2035?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1558/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-banana-will-the-current-main-export-cultivar-the-cavendish-be-replaced-by-2035/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 49%
-Description: Bananas are a well-liked import fruit all over the world, and the Cavendish cultivar has been crushing that market for sixty years. But its rise is literally founded upon the compost heap of the Gros Michel, another cultivar. The so-called “Big Mike” variety had been the leading export towards Europe and North America, but the Panama disease, a fungus belonging to the Fusarium clade, killed that. [Luckily the Cavendish, grown in the same soil as the wilting Gros Michel, replaced it as the banana most of the western world connected with bananas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana) . However, it appears [another Fusarium rears its spores](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/cavendish-banana-extinction-gene-editing) . Cavendish, with their genetic homogenity (they’re all clones) and sterile nature, aren’t resistant to it, and the fungus is ravaging more and more plantations. There are efforts under way to deal with Fusarium, but with various societies’ doubts and misgivings abo...
-# Forecasts: 124
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1568/will-we-detect-an-exoplanet-atmosphere-with-5-oxygen-atmosphere-by-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 55.00000000000001%
-Description: Despite [Kepler’s recent](http://www.nasa.gov/kepler) end of mission [the search](http://sci.esa.int/gaia/) [for exoplanets](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/cubesat/missions/asteria.php) [continues](https://tess.gsfc.nasa.gov) . While their orbits and properties vary, ranging from double our Moon’s mass to thirty times Jupiter’s, their atmospheres’ compositions are harder to detect. As of this writing this means we have mostly data from exoplanets we detected by transition and occlusion methods, but also other kind of exoplanets. However we only found what is in their air, not how much or its ratio in the atmosphere. What we did detect of their atmospheres was often hydrogen, sodium, water vapour, carbon monoxide and dioxide, methane, and even oxygen, depending on the respective exoplanet. Sadly, the presence of O2 isn’t the smoking gun for extraterrestrial life some media like to report it for. There are atmospheric and geological processes that produce detectable— [or even massive](https://...
-# Forecasts: 154
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the World's GDP be in 2028?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1574/what-will-the-worlds-gdp-be-in-2028/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In the first decade of the 21st century, the World produced [more economic value than in the first 19 centuries of the common era combined](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2011/06/28/two-thousand-years-in-one-chart) . From the long-term perspective of social history, lasting economic prosperity and economic growth that exceeds population growth is only a very recent achievement for humanity. Since 1961, World GDP grew at an [average rate of 3.5%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) resulting in a 7.1 fold increase, or a doubling once every 15.678 years or around 188 months. Although GDP growth rates are prone to shocks, world GDP has not recently shown to stagnate for long periods of time. In fact, world GDP growth was positive for all periods since 1961 [except for 2009](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD), following the [global financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008) . Currently, in the thir...
-# Forecasts: 129
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1576/fewer-than-375m-in-extreme-poverty-by-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 23%
-Description: In September 2015, 193 world leaders adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and called for a “data revolution” to enhance accountability in measuring the progress towards their fulfilment. The SDGs have [17 goals](https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/poverty/) of which the first is “To end poverty in all its forms everywhere by 2030”. Extreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices. Currently, [around 630M people](https://worldpoverty.io/) (roughly 8%) live in extreme poverty worldwide. According to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&state$time$value=2006&delay:121.71612903225821;&entities$;&marker$select@;&opacitySelectDim:0.3&axis_x$use=indicator&which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&scaleType=log&zoomedMin=282&zoomedMax=119849&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&axis_y$use=indicator&which...
-# Forecasts: 183
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 86%
-Description: China is today one of the major economies in the world. It ranks second in terms of gross domestic product and it contributes about 36 percent to world growth. Due to the size of its economy, Chinese business cycle fluctuations potentially affect economies worldwide. The Chinese economy further has substantial effects on global poverty, global trade, climate change, and much else. From the late 1970s, China saw an annual average growth rate of 9.9 per cent for more than three decades. This followed the introduction of reform and opening-up policies in 1978. In recent years, however, growth has slowed, to only 6.9 per cent in 2015. In Angus Maddison's book, [The Outlook for China and the World Economy](http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/Maddison07.pdf), he forecasts that China's GDP will surpass that of the United States in the first half of this century, and likely as soon as 2030. China has seen an average of 9.8% GDP growth since the 1970s, far higher than the 2.8% average observed in t...
-# Forecasts: 406
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: When will the first publicly traded company achieve a $10 trillion market capitalisation?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1584/when-will-the-first-publicly-traded-company-achieve-a-10-trillion-market-capitalisation/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This year, just weeks after globe-conquering tech giant Apple reached its $1 trillion value milestone, Amazon has joined them in crossing the threshold ([at some surprise to Metaculus forecasters](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/651/a-trillion-dollar-company-by-the-end-of-2018/)). Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. Amazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap) . To put the $10 trillion figure in some perspective, the United States currently (Q2, 2018) has a GDP of $20 trillion at current prices. When will the first publicly traded company achieve a $10 trillion market capitalisation in today's prices? This resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a s...
-# Forecasts: 123
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 5%
-Description: A nuclear exchange could cause a [nuclear winter](http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/RobockNW2006JD008235.pdf) – a release of black carbon into the atmosphere which would [according to some studies](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013EF000205), result in the blocking the Sun’s thermal energy. This would lower temperatures regionally and globally for several years, and open up new holes in the ozone layer protecting the Earth from harmful radiation, reduce global precipitation by about 10%, trigger crop failures, and result in widespread food shortages. According to [some models](http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/ToonRobockTurcoPhysicsToday.pdf), the smoke would rapidly engulf the Earth and form a dense stratospheric smoke layer. The smoke from a war fought with strategic nuclear weapons would quickly prevent up to 70% of sunlight from reaching the surface of the Northern Hemisphere and 35% of sunlight from reaching the surface of the Southern Hemisphere...
-# Forecasts: 144
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 80%
-Description: Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/) and [Givewell](https://www.givewell.org/) . Since then, [around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/#our-members-have-done-some-amazing-things) to the world’s most effective charities, [thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world]( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HyELsX9n85D7M1GKxZ1BndxU9nVFLEPH0eh61g2PI4U/edit#gid=0) . Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively [ donate around $5-10M each year]( http://effective-altruism.com/ea/1e1/ea_survey_2017_series_community_demographics/), has resulted in [$170 million+](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/impact/) moved to effective ch...
-# Forecasts: 106
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What year will the 2˚C climate threshold be crossed?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/what-year-will-the-2c-climate-threshold-be-crossed/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) "well below 2 ˚C". Many experts were (and are) skeptical about this being feasible. Hence, it was asked whether there would be [ 5 consecutive years in which the global temperature was at least 2 ˚C above pre-industrial levels by 2100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) . As of the writing of this question, the Metaculus community assigns an 80% probability to this happening. The year of comparison chosen was 1880. Here, it is asked: In what year will the average global temperature be at least 2 ˚C above the 1880 value for the first time? Note that the answer to this question could be never and that a non-never resolution could occur without triggering a positive resolution to the previously mentioned binary question. In the case of a non-never resolution, December 31st of the first year to achieve 2 ˚C warming sha...
-# Forecasts: 139
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Elon Musk (attempt to) go to Mars?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1598/will-elon-musk-attempt-to-go-to-mars/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 30%
-Description: Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question). Whereas putting anybody on Mars may already seem ambitious enough, Musk has also talked about perhaps going to the red planet himself. In [ an interview with Axios]( https://www.axios.com/elon-musk-mars-space-x-14c01761-d045-4da0-924b-322fb6a109ce.html) Musk estimated his own chances of going to Mars at 70%. It is asked:Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars? This question resolves positive if Elon Musk is launched on a rocket with the intent of going to Mars. It resolves negative if Elon Musk is declared legally dead before launching on a Mars-bound rocket.
-# Forecasts: 388
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: The Top500's total sum in 2030 as a multiple of the total sum in 2015
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1600/the-top500s-total-sum-in-2030-as-a-multiple-of-the-total-sum-in-2015/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In a related [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1492/what-will-be-top500s-1-performing-supercomputer-as-a-multiple-of-the-500-performer-in-2030/), we looked at Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer, and forecasted that multiple's trend. For this question we'll be looking at the growth of the top 500 supercomputers as a group. Their group performance is measured by the sum of the 500's top supercomputers' [Linpack Benchmark](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/), which reflects the performance of a dedicated system for solving a dense system of linear equations. Specifically, this question asks by what multiple will the sum of Linpack performance for the top 500 supercomputers increase by 2030 in comparison to the performance of the top 500 supercomputers in 2015? Here are some examples of 15-year total-sum Linpack Benchmark factor increases: --- In June 1993, the sum was 1.1 teraflop/s. 15 years later in June 2008, the sum had reached ...
-# Forecasts: 128
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 2%
-Description: [According to current IPCC estimates](http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf), unmitigated greenhouse emissions are likely to lead to global temperature increases of 2.6ºC-4.8ºC by 2100. If this happened, our planet would become a more precarious place, but it will likely remain mostly habitable. However, [according to some](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks), there is also a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases even higher than 4.8ºC. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a [“fat” right tail](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-e-mann/the-fat-tail-of-climate-change-risk_b_8116264.html), meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases. Hence, there is a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions may produce consequences which could be catastrophic for life on Earth. One explanatio...
-# Forecasts: 142
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Is the Zuma satellite still in orbit?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1618/is-the-zuma-satellite-still-in-orbit/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 43%
-Description: In January 2018, a classified satellite known only as Zuma, built by defense contractor Northrop Grumman for an unknown agency of the United States government, was launched by commercial space launch provider SpaceX. The specific agency in charge of the Zuma project has not been disclosed, nor its purpose. The National Reconnaissance Office, the agency responsible for operating the spy satellites of the United States, which typically announces the launch of its assets, specifically denied that Zuma was one of their satellites ([http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-…](http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-zuma-payload-not-its-bird)). The satellite had a development cost of approximately $3.5 billion according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, and as such is one of the most-expensive single objects ever launched into space. It is also, perhaps, one of the costliest objects ever lost in connection to a space mission. The official story (provided by anonymous governmen...
-# Forecasts: 118
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Between 1969 and 1972, twelve American men walked on the moon. Since then, no manned spacecraft has ever landed on any astronomical body except the Earth itself. There are various plans to send humans to the moon and to Mars - but when will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars? This question resolves positively when any spacecraft containing living humans comes into physical contact with any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars according to the agency, corporation, or other body primarily responsible for the mission. The landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. Making physical contact with other bodies such as asteroids, comets, or 'minor planets' not considered 'dwarf planets' does not count. Resolves ambiguously if it cannot be conclusively determined whether or...
-# Forecasts: 123
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the heaviest payload put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service at start of 2050?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1620/what-will-be-the-heaviest-payload-put-into-leo-by-a-launch-vehicle-that-is-in-service-at-start-of-2050/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: As of 2018, the Saturn V remains the tallest, heaviest, and most powerful (highest total impulse) rocket ever brought to operational status, and holds records for the heaviest payload launched and largest payload capacity to low Earth orbit (LEO) of 140,000 kg (310,000 lb), which included the third stage and unburned propellant needed to send the Apollo Command/Service Module and Lunar Module to the Moon. Currently, the world's most capable rocket is the Falcon Heavy with an advertised LEO payload capacity of 63,800kg (140,660 lb). On January 1 2050, what will be the highest payload delivered to LEO (in kilograms) of a launch vehicle in service? This question applies only to the payload delivery of vehicles physically launched into space (regardless of their propulsion method) and not to the capacity of any hypothetical and currently unrealized systems such as space elevators, space towers, space guns, skyhooks or other unconventional systems that may be developed by 2050. The vehicle...
-# Forecasts: 69
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the United States Food and Drug Administration before January 1 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1621/will-a-senolytic-therapy-be-approved-for-commercial-sale-by-the-united-states-food-and-drug-administration-before-january-1-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 57.99999999999999%
-Description: In recent years, a number of ventures have begun work on translating the results of some promising laboratory studies on senolytic agents into medicine for humans. A senolytic agent is an agent introduced to the body for the purpose of selectively eliminating senescent cells from the patient. Senescent cells are cells in the body that no longer divide, having reached their Hayflick limit, but which do not automatically apoptose. These senescent cells linger in the body triggering inflammatory responses, reducing the effectiveness of the immune system, and they are associated with many age-related diseases including type 2 diabetes and atherosclerosis which present a high disease and mortality burden, especially in the most-developed countries in which age-related diseases constitute the overwhelming majority of causes of death among populations. Senescent cells are thought to play an important part in the aging process, and thus it is theorised that selectively removing these senescen...
-# Forecasts: 184
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will a mouse be confirmed to have lived for 2,500 days before 1 January 2035?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1624/will-a-mouse-be-confirmed-to-have-lived-for-2500-days-before-1-january-2035/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 50%
-Description: The longest lived laboratory mouse ever was a growth hormone receptor knockout mouse which lived to approximately 1,800 days old in the lab of Andrzej Bartke at Southern Illinois University. The maximum for normal B6 mice under ideal conditions is 1200 days. In order for a mouse to live for 2,500 days, it is highly likely that a major breakthrough in rejuvenation of mammalian organisms will have to be achieved, and so this achievement would likely have significant implications for humanity. This question shall resolve positively if by 1 January 2035, credible media reports state that an individual mouse has lived for at least 2,500 days.
-# Forecasts: 203
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: By 1 January 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1625/by-1-january-2050-will-it-be-possible-to-increase-a-healthy-adult-humans-iq-by-at-least-two-standard-deviations-in-less-than-30-days/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 15%
-Description: Arguably the most important single difference between humans and all other life is the degree to which human intelligence allows for radically more complex forms of socialization, cooperation, activity and achievement. No other species in the universe (to our knowledge) has created the kind of complex civilization that humans have created, or anything close to it, and this is due to the large advantage that humans have acquired in intelligence. The most widely-accepted tool for measuring human intelligence is the IQ test. The population average is fixed arbitrarily at 100, and the results of a population fit a Gaussian probability distribution, also known as a bell curve. Approximately two-thirds of the population score between one standard deviation below the mean and one standard deviation above the mean. About 2.5% of the population scores at or above two standard deviations above the mean, and 2.5% scores at or below two standard deviations below the mean. The difference in ability...
-# Forecasts: 200
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 5%
-Description: As of 2014, around 250 legally dead people in the United States were in cryonic preservation. At least 1,500 people around the world have active plans to join them in cryopreservation in an attempt to thwart (or at least delay) permanent death by freezing (or more technically 'vitrifying') their corpses after their legal death. Many of these 'cryopatients' have had their whole bodies preserved; others have opted to have only a cheaper neuropreservation. You can probably guess what that means. For more information on the current state of the art in cryonics, you can visit [Alcor's website](https://alcor.org/Library/html/vitrification.html), which is one of the most prominent organisations in the field. This question asks: will any 'patients' who have been in cryonic preservation for at least one full year before 2050 be successfully revived before 1 January 2050? For the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. o...
-# Forecasts: 230
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the longest verified human lifespan on record on January 1 2050?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1628/what-will-be-the-longest-verified-human-lifespan-on-record-on-january-1-2050/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: As of 2018, the record for longest verified human lifespan is held by Jeanne Louise Calment of Arles, France. She lived from 21 February 1875 to 4 August 1997, for a term of 122 years, 164 days. She has held the record for longest confirmed human lifespan since 12 May 1990, was the first human ever to have been confirmed to have lived to the age of 116 years, and is the only human confirmed to have ever lived beyond 120 years. Calment reportedly remained mentally intact until the end of her life, and the New York Times reported that she had been in good health, though almost blind and deaf, as recently as a month before her death. She died of unspecified causes. The oldest verified person currently alive, as of 8 December 2018, is Kane Tanaka of Japan. She was born on 2 January 1903 and at time of question writing is 115 years, 338 days old. If she is still alive on January 1 2050, she will be 146 years, 11 months, 30 days old. Here are the lists of oldest [verified people ever](http...
-# Forecasts: 174
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 5%
-Description: [Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. Technosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft. This question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050? By 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism. To resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCO...
-# Forecasts: 246
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1630/what-percentage-of-us-residents-will-be-aged-100-years-or-older-on-january-1-2050/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: We have a number of questions regarding possible achievements in life extension, but none that measure the effect these achievements might have on a large cohort of people. In 2005, the US Census Bureau estimated the country would have 114,000 centenarians by the year 2010. The actual number reported in the 2010 census was less than half that amount at exactly 53,364 people, or approximately 0.0173% of the population at the time. As of 2014, [estimates by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db233.pdf), place the number of American centenarians at approximately 72,000, roughly 0.022% of the population at the time. This question asks: what percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050, according to data released either by national statistical authorities such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Center for Health Statistics or other credible independent statisticians?
-# Forecasts: 77
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1631/will-cuba-still-be-a-communist-state-in-2023/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 90%
-Description: Since 1965, Cuba has been governed by the Communist Party of Cuba. Cuba is one of few remaining Marxist–Leninist socialist states, where the role of the vanguard Communist Party is enshrined in the Constitution. As of December 09 2018, only the following countries are one-party states in which the institutions of the ruling Communist Party and the state have become intertwined (and they are generally adherents of Marxism–Leninism in particular): People's Republic of China, Republic of Cuba, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Socialist Republic of Vietnam, and Democratic People's Republic of Korea. Will Cuba will still be a communist state as measured by having a below 50 score on the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) ? This question resolves positive if the 2023 [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) assigns an index value below 50, indicating "repressed economic activity". Currently, Cuba [has an index value of 31.9](https://en.wikipedi...
-# Forecasts: 218
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will US income inequality increase by 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1634/will-us-income-inequality-increase-by-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 48%
-Description: According to [DQYDJ](https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/), as of 2018 the gross income for a US household at the 80th percentile is $127,144.40 The gross income for a US household at the 20th percentile is $24,913.40. Therefore, the gross income of a household at the 80th percentile is 5.10345 times the gross income of a household at the 20th percentile. At any point before 01 January 2025, will the gross income of a US household at the 80th percentile be more than 6.12414 times that of a US household at the 20th percentile; or, in other words, will this specific measurement of household income inequality increase by at least 20%? For the purpose of this question, we shall refer to the data released by [the U.S. census bureau](https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/news/data-releases.html) (which is the same data used by [DQYDJ](https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/)) or any other source of economic data listed in the [prediction resources...
-# Forecasts: 217
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will a crewed spacecraft enter interstellar space for the first time?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1637/when-will-a-crewed-spacecraft-enter-interstellar-space-for-the-first-time/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: For the second time in history, a human-made object has reached the space between the stars. NASA’s Voyager 2 probe, launched on August 20 1977, has now has exited the heliosphere – the protective bubble of particles and magnetic fields created by the Sun. The only human-made object to previously achieve this was Voyager 1, launched on September 5, 1977. Both of these craft are unmanned probes. This question asks: When will a crewed spacecraft containing living and conscious human beings be confirmed to be outside of the Sun's heliosphere? For the purposes of this question, the humans on the spacecraft must be both alive and conscious at the time that the spacecraft is confirmed to be outside the heliosphere. Humans in any kind of cryonic preservation, suspended animation, hibernation or other similar state at the time that the craft is declared to be outside the heliosphere are excluded, as are 'mind uploads' (a hypothetical futuristic process of scanning the mental state (including ...
-# Forecasts: 181
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1638/will-alex-jones-ever-hold-high-federal-office-in-the-united-states-before-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 1%
-Description: Alexander Emric Jones is a famous (or perhaps, infamous) American filmmaker, radio host, entrepreneur, and noted conspiracy theorist. Some have claimed (including his own lawyer in court, during a custody battle) that Jones is merely an extremely dedicated performance artist playing a character - but he publicly denies this. He rose to prominence in the 2010s, particularly during and after the 2016 Presidential Election cycle, in which he was a vocal and high-profile supporter of Donald Trump. More recently, he and his content have been banned from Twitter, Facebook and YouTube for spreading so-called 'fake news', disinformation, and alleged 'hate speech' over a period of some years. He has also been banned from using the PayPal service. Jones has previously ran for public office. In early 2000, Jones was one of seven Republican candidates for state representative in Texas House District 48, an open swing district based in Austin, Texas. Jones stated that he was running "to be a watchd...
-# Forecasts: 247
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 26%
-Description: More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/) . However, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting. In response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hea...
-# Forecasts: 227
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will it once again be possible to travel between London and New York City by any commercially available means in under three hours by 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1642/will-it-once-again-be-possible-to-travel-between-london-and-new-york-city-by-any-commercially-available-means-in-under-three-hours-by-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 35%
-Description: London and New York City are the world's two most important financial centers, and as of 2018 are the only cities in the world to have ever been ranked Alpha++ by the [Globalization and World Cities Research Network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network) The fastest transatlantic airliner flight was from New York's JFK Airport to London's Heathrow Airport on 7 February 1996 by the British Airways Concorde designated G-BOAD in 2 hours, 52 minutes, 59 seconds from take-off to touchdown aided by a 175 mph (282 km/h) tailwind. Since the Concorde was retired in 2003, flight times have increased substantially. The fastest commercial flight operated since 2003 [seems to have been made in 2018](https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/norwegian-plane-boeing-harold-van-dam-new-york-jfk-london-gatwick-travel-holiday-a8169496.html) by a Norwegian Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner departing from New York's JFK reached London Gatwick in 5 hours, 13 minutes. This question...
-# Forecasts: 269
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 99%
-Description: The unemployment rate in the United States averaged 5.77% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 10.80% in November of 1982 and a record low of 2.50% in May of 1953. According to the most recent data available (for November 2018) at the time of question writing, the national unemployment rate in the United States is 3.7%. You can view historical data [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) . At any point before January 1 2023, will the US unemployment rate meet or exceed 10%? For a positive resolution, data confirming 10% or greater unemployment must be sourced from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, or, if that body no longer exists, credible media reports in the financial press.
-# Forecasts: 368
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1644/will-a-von-neumann-probe-be-launched-before-2050/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 19%
-Description: Context ======= A von Neumann probe is an autonomous spacecraft capable of replicating itself. The concept is named after the 20th century Hungarian-American mathematician and physicist [John von Neumann](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann), who rigorously studied the concept of self-replicating machines that he called "Universal Assemblers." While von Neumann never applied his work to the idea of spacecraft, theoreticians since then have done so. In theory, a self-replicating spacecraft could be sent to a neighbouring planetary system, where it would seek out raw materials (extracted from asteroids, moons, planets, gas giants, etc.) to create replicas of itself. These replicas would then be sent out to other planetary systems. The original parent probe could then pursue its primary purpose within the star system. This mission varies widely depending on the variant of self-replicating starship proposed. If a self-replicating probe finds evidence of primitive life (or even...
-# Forecasts: 73
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 6%
-Description: A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area. To give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago. This question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 J...
-# Forecasts: 229
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1646/will-the-human-condition-change-fundamentally-before-2100/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 80%
-Description: [Nick Bostrom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Bostrom), philosopher and Founding Director of the [Future of Humanity Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_of_Humanity_Institute) at the University of Oxford, [argues](https://youtu.be/YBAxrR3RBSs) that only two events since the dawn of humanity have fundamentally changed the human condition: the Agricultural Revolution that took place approximately 10,000 years ago, and the Industrial Revolution which took place from roughly 1760-1840. Bostrom states the following: "So what kind of thing would count as a fundamental change in the human condition? "You could argue that if we look back over history, there has really only been two events that have fundamentally changed the human condition, the first being [the Agricultural Revolution some 10,000 or 12,000 years ago in Mesopotamia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neolithic_Revolution), where we transitioned from being hunter-gatherers, small bands roaming around, to settling int...
-# Forecasts: 146
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the greatest velocity attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1648/what-will-be-the-greatest-velocity-attained-by-a-human-made-spacecraft-before-2050/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: As of December 13 2018, the fastest human-made spacecraft is the [Parker Solar Probe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parker_Solar_Probe) which on 6 November 2018 [attained](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_vehicle_speed_records#Spacecraft) a maximum velocity of 343,112 km/h (0.000318 times the speed of light, or c) relative to the Sun. It is expected that this will be substantially exceeded in the future when Parker Solar Probe reaches its ultimate perihelion. Its velocity relative to the Sun is expected to reach 690,000 km/h (0.000640 c). This question asks: Before January 1 2050, what will be the greatest velocity ever achieved, in c, by any spacecraft made by humans? In order to unambiguously express the velocity of a spacecraft, a frame of reference must be specified. For the purposes of this question, this reference frame will be taken to be fixed to the center of mass of the sun.
-# Forecasts: 117
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the Second Amendment to the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1650/will-the-second-amendment-to-the-united-states-constitution-be-amended-or-repealed-before-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 1%
-Description: The Second Amendment to the [United States Constitution](https://www.usconstitution.net/const.pdf) protects the right of the people to keep and bear arms and was adopted on December 15, 1791 as part of the Bill of Rights. An amendment to the Constitution is an improvement, a correction or a revision to the original content approved in 1788. To date, 27 Amendments have been approved, six have been disapproved and thousands have been discussed. Article V of the Constitution prescribes how an amendment can become a part of the Constitution. While there are two ways, only one has ever been used. All 27 Amendments have been ratified after two-thirds of the House and Senate approve of the proposal and send it to the states for a vote. Then, three-fourths of the states must affirm the proposed Amendment. The other method of passing an amendment requires a Constitutional Convention to be called by two-thirds of the legislatures of the States. That Convention can propose as many amendments as...
-# Forecasts: 151
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: A breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1651/a-breakthrough-in-accurately-predicting-protein-structure-before-2031/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 99%
-Description: Proteins are large, complex molecules essential in sustaining life. Nearly every function our body performs—contracting muscles, sensing light, or turning food into energy—can be traced back to one or more proteins and how they move and change. The recipes for those proteins—called genes—are encoded in our DNA. What any given protein can do depends on its unique 3D structure. For example, antibody proteins that make up our immune systems are ‘Y-shaped’, and are akin to unique hooks. By latching on to viruses and bacteria, antibody proteins are able to detect and tag disease-causing microorganisms for extermination. Similarly, collagen proteins are shaped like cords, which transmit tension between cartilage, ligaments, bones, and skin. Other types of proteins include CRISPR and Cas9, which act like scissors and cut and paste DNA; antifreeze proteins, whose 3D structure allows them to bind to ice crystals and prevent organisms from freezing; and ribosomes that act like a programmed asse...
-# Forecasts: 286
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will functional respirocytes be used successfully in any mammal before 2035?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1653/will-functional-respirocytes-be-used-successfully-in-any-mammal-before-2035/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 40%
-Description: [Respirocytes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respirocyte) are hypothetical artificial red blood cells that are intended to emulate the function of their organic counterparts, so as to supplement or replace the function of much of the human body's normal respiratory system. Respirocytes were proposed by Robert A. Freitas Jr in his 1998 paper ["A Mechanical Artificial Red Blood Cell: Exploratory Design in Medical Nanotechnology".](https://foresight.org/Nanomedicine/Respirocytes.html) The respirocyte is a bloodborne 1-micron-diameter spherical nanomedical device designed by Robert A. Freitas Jr. The device acts as an artificial mechanical red blood cell. It is designed as a diamondoid 1000-atmosphere pressure vessel with active pumping powered by endogenous serum glucose, and can deliver 236 times more oxygen to the tissues per unit volume than natural red cells while simultaneously managing carbonic acidity. An individual respirocyte consists of 18 billion precisely arranged structural ...
-# Forecasts: 117
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the average survival rate of all cancers exceed 75%?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1654/when-will-the-average-survival-rate-of-all-cancers-exceed-75/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Every sixth death in the world is due to cancer, making it the [second leading cause of death](http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(17)32152-9.pdf) (second only to cardiovascular diseases). In 2016, 8.9 million people are estimated to have died from the various forms of cancer. The [Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation](http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool) put relatively small error margins around this global figure: the lower and upper estimates extend from 8.75 to 9.1 million. As of 2013 in the United States, the mean 5-year relative survival rate of all cancers (for both sexes) [was 69.2%](https://ourworldindata.org/cancer#cancer-survival-rates) . As you can see from this chart by [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/cancer#cancer-survival-rates), the survival rate has been steadily increasing. For example, in 1977 the figure was 48.9% When will the mean 5-year relative survival rate of all cancers for both sexes in the United States e...
-# Forecasts: 125
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will there be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1655/when-will-there-be-a-breakthrough-in-the-treatment-of-hard-to-treat-cancers/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Every sixth death in the world is due to cancer, making it the [second leading cause of death](http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(17)32152-9.pdf) (second only to cardiovascular diseases). In 2016, 8.9 million people are estimated to have died from the various forms of cancer. Some cancers are harder to survive than others. Common cancer sites with low 5 year survival rates include the brain and nervous system (35.9%), stomach (31.1%), oesophagus (21%), lungs and bronchus (19.5%), liver (18.5%) and pancreas (8.7%) ([all rates for both sexes, all races from 2013 in the U.S.](https://ourworldindata.org/cancer#cancer-survival-rates)). When will we see a doubling of the odds of survival (relative to 2013 rates) in the U.S. for cancers in any two of the following sites for both sexes and all races: brain and nervous system, stomach, oesophagus, lungs and bronchus, liver, or the pancreas? Positive resolution requires any two of the following reported average rates for...
-# Forecasts: 123
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the 10,000th human reach space?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The Fédération Aéronautique Internationale (FAI) defines spaceflight as any flight above 100 kilometres (62 mi) above Earth's sea level. The first human spaceflight occured in 12 April 1961, and as of June 17, 2018, a total of [561 people](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_space_travelers_by_name) had gone to space according to that definition. This works out to about 10 people per year since 1961, but progress has not been linear or continuous. As of December 2018, the spacecraft with the highest crew capacity to have ever been sucessfully launched on a crewed mission is the now-retired [Space Shuttle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Shuttle), which could be configured to carry up to 10 astronauts at once, but [never actually carried more than eight.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STS-71) In recent years, proposals have been made for a new generation of super-heavy (and beyond) [spaceships capable of taking 100 or more humans to space in a single launch.](https://en.wikipedia...
-# Forecasts: 142
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1662/will-any-asteroid-or-comet-have-been-mined-in-space-for-commercial-purposes-before-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 10%
-Description: A number of commercial ventures have been founded in the 21st century with the goal of [mining various asteroids and comets in the solar system for commercial purposes.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining) There are a number of valuable resources that could in principle be harvested from these objects, including gold, iridium, silver, osmium, palladium, platinum, rhenium, rhodium, ruthenium and tungsten for transport back to Earth; iron, cobalt, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, aluminium, and titanium for space-based construction. Perhaps the most immediately useful resource may be water, which could be converted into hydrogen and oxygen to fuel spacecraft. Some identified asteroids are believed to be quite rich in minerals. Indeed, if one were to look up current prices on the London Metal Exchange for these resources and assume (quite wrongly, of course) that the price would hold up in the event that asteroid mining became practical and economical, there are many [individua...
-# Forecasts: 230
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1663/will-the-usas-labor-force-participation-rate-be-lower-in-2023-than-in-2018/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 70%
-Description: The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is the ratio between the labor force and the overall size of their cohort. It is sometimes opposed to the unemployment rate, since it includes people who for various reasons are not in the job market. It hovered around 59% until the late 1960's, then grew as high as 67% in 2000 before shrinking back to 63% in recent years. It seems to be roughly stable since 2014. (graph and data [here](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000)). This question asks in which direction the LFPR will have changed in 2024 compared to 2018, as measured by the United States Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, series ID [LNS11300000](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000) . The quantities considered are the 12-month averages for 2018 and 2023. Resolves: ---positive if the average LFPR for 2023 is lower than the average LFPR for 2018 ---negative if the average LFPR for 2023 is higher than the average LFPR for 2018 ---ambiguous if they are the s...
-# Forecasts: 174
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will Reuters journalists Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo be released from prison?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1667/when-will-reuters-journalists-wa-lone-and-kyaw-soe-oo-be-released-from-prison/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: On 12 December 2017, members of Myanmar's police force arrested Reuters journalists [Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inn_Din_massacre#Arrest_of_Reuters_journalists) at a restaurant in Yangon after inviting them to dinner. The two journalists were independently investigating the mass grave found in [Inn Din](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inn_Din_massacre) prior to their arrest. A court charged the two journalists with obtaining secret state documents in violation of the Official Secrets Act on 9 July 2018, taking the case to trial after a period of preliminary hearings that lasted six months. The pair pleaded not guilty to the charges and vowed to testify and prove their innocence. On 3 September 2018, the two journalists were found guilty by a court and sentenced to [seven years in prison](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-journalists-trial-specialrepo/special-report-how-myanmar-punished-two-reporters-for-uncovering-an-atrocity-idUSKCN1LJ167) . In Decemb...
-# Forecasts: 29
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1669/if-the-james-webb-space-telescope-is-launched-will-it-succeed-in-transmitting-cosmological-data/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 90%
-Description: [The James Webb Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope) (JWST or "Webb") is a space telescope in construction that will be the successor to the Hubble Space Telescope. The JWST will provide greatly improved resolution and sensitivity over the Hubble, and will enable a broad range of investigations across the fields of astronomy and cosmology. The JWST's is currently scheduled for March 2021. One of its goals is observing the most distant events and objects in the universe, such as the formation of the first galaxies. Other goals include understanding the formation of stars and planets, and direct imaging of exoplanets and novas. ([See also JWST YouTube channel for further information](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=073GwPbyFxE)). Development began in 1996, but the project has had numerous delays and cost overruns with current budget estimated at around $10 billion. A major source of worry is deployment process. For example, in March 2018, NASA delay...
-# Forecasts: 164
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will George R. R. Martin die before the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1681/will-george-r-r-martin-die-before-the-final-book-of-a-song-of-ice-and-fire-is-published/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 72%
-Description: [warning: links may contain spoilers] [George R. R. Martin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_R._R._Martin) (GRRM) is the author of the A Song Of Ice And Fire (ASOIAF) books, a series of fantasy novels. Both the book series and the derived TV show [are](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire#Sales) extraordinarily [popular](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_of_Thrones#Viewer_numbers) . Many of [GRRM's fans have commented](https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/80kaf8/spoilers_extended_is_grrm_stuck_or_is_he_just_slow/) (with [varying degrees of frustration](https://www.thenationalbookreview.com/features/2016/1/15/rant-why-have-george-r-r-martins-writing-his-game-of-thrones-books-so-slowly-and-why-are-they-so-long)) that the latest ASOIAF books are [taking him a long time to write](https://www.thisisinsider.com/why-winds-of-winter-is-taking-so-long-2017-1) . For instance: the most recent book had to be split into two because it was getting so long and late; the publi...
-# Forecasts: 314
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: When will PHP die?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. According to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all) : PHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know. While [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites. Some popular websites using PHP: --- [Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) --- [Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) --- [Vk.com](http://Vk.com) --- [Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) --- [360.cn](http://360.cn) --- [Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) --- [Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) --- [Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) Despite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages. [Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like: --- [Is ...
-# Forecasts: 92
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 63%
-Description: [Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. In the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide. In the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation. This question...
-# Forecasts: 362
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 51%
-Description: Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner. In a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that t...
-# Forecasts: 155
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 5%
-Description: No single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692) . Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353) . [An informal survey at the 2008 Oxford Global Catastrophic Risk Conference](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) asked participants to estimate the chance that disasters of different types would occur before 2100. Participants had a median risk estimate of 0.05% that a natural pandemic would lead to human extinction by 2100, and a median risk estimate of 2% that an “engin...
-# Forecasts: 108
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2518/will-there-be-another-vei-level-six-or-higher-volcanic-eruption-on-earth-before-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 5%
-Description: [The Volcanic Explosivity Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_Explosivity_Index) (VEI) is a relative measure of the explosiveness of volcanic eruptions. It was devised by Chris Newhall of the United States Geological Survey and Stephen Self at the University of Hawaii in 1982. Volume of products, eruption cloud height, and qualitative observations (using terms ranging from "gentle" to "mega-colossal") are used to determine the explosivity value. The scale is open-ended with the largest volcanoes in history given magnitude 8. A value of 0 is given for non-explosive eruptions, defined as less than 10,000 m^3 (350,000 cu ft) of tephra ejected; and 8 representing a mega-colossal explosive eruption that can eject 1.0×1012 m^3 (240 cubic miles) of tephra and have a cloud column height of over 20 km (66,000 ft). The scale is logarithmic, with each interval on the scale representing a tenfold increase in observed ejecta criteria, with the exception of between VEI 0, VEI 1 and VEI 2. ...
-# Forecasts: 140
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the first human be born on another world?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2533/when-will-the-first-human-be-born-on-another-world/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Fewer than 600 humans have ever traveled to space. Fewer still have ever set foot on another astronomical object: only twelve men ever walked on the moon. In colonial times, the birth of the first child of settlers in a newly acquired territory (for example, the birth of [Virginia Dare in a New World English overseas possession](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_Dare)) was considered an important milestone. In that spirit, this question asks: When will the first human be born alive on an astronomical body other than Earth? The child must be born alive, but need not survive for any particular length of time in order for a positive resolution. The birth must take place on some natural astronomical object (not inside a spacecraft, space station or man-made space-based habitat like an [O'Neill cylinder](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O%27Neill_cylinder)) such as a planet, dwarf planet, moon or asteroid. A 'human' shall be taken to mean an anatomically modern human that would be able (u...
-# Forecasts: 159
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 17%
-Description: [World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war. [World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in the Soviet Union and China. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only use of nuclear weapons in war. [World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide large-scale military conflict subsequent to World War I and World War II....
-# Forecasts: 558
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2536/when-will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-resolved/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Conjecture: There are infinitely many primes p such that p + 2 is also prime. In the last few years, the upper bound N for the statement “There are infinitely many primes that differ by at most N” has been [reduced from 70,000,000 to 246](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twin_prime) . But when will we know whether N=2 or not? When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved? The question is resolved positively when a proof that is mostly correct is published that demonstrates, beyond reasonable doubt of leading number theorists (except those who authored the relevant work), that the Twin Prime Conjecture is proved to be true or false. This question closes retroactively on the date of the proof’s publication when the consensus emerges. If the conjecture were proved to be undecidable in ZFC, the question resolves ambiguously. An [earlier question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8/will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-positively-resolved-in-2016/) on the whether the Twin Prime Conjecture wou...
-# Forecasts: 127
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2561/will-a-metaculus-user-report-from-space-before-2050/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 60%
-Description: Short and fun question: Will a registered Metaculus user post a comment under this question from space before 2050? A photo would be nice too :) ! For this question to resolve positively the user must be at least 80km above the surface of the Earth at the time of posting the comment. Comments posted before launch or after landing will not count, sorry :) . Similar questions: --- [When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/) --- [When will the 10,000th human reach space? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/)
-# Forecasts: 175
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2563/what-will-the-atmospheric-co2-concentration-be-in-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Over the last few centuries, the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere has risen from approximately 280 parts per million (pre-industrial) to approximately 410 ppm [ [1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere) ]. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is one of the contributing factors driving climate change via the greenhouse effect. The trend follows a seasonal cycle that reaches its peak in May, and has also risen at [an average rate of around 2ppm annually in the last ten years](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_gr.html) . What will be the average atmospheric CO2 content observed throughout the year 2030? The resolution will be based on the [globally, annually averaged figure provided by the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html) . If this organization (or a successor) does not exist or no longer provides this information in 2030, the question should resolve ambiguously. (See also: ...
-# Forecasts: 165
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach 60 years in all countries?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2575/when-will-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-reach-60-years-in-all-countries/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Recently, the world quietly marked a significant milestone. For the first time, life expectancy at birth for both sexes now exceeds 50 years in all countries, [with Sierra Leone the lowest at 50.1 years.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy) As of January 2019, there are no countries outside of Sub-Saharan Africa where the life expectancy at birth for both sexes is below 60. This question asks: When, for the first time, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 60 years in all countries simultaneously? By 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 60 years for women and men individually. Resolution should cite data from the World Health Organization, United Nations or a similarly authoritative body.
-# Forecasts: 141
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will a DUI be overruled or turned down due to riding a driverless car?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2576/when-will-a-dui-be-overruled-or-turned-down-due-to-riding-a-driverless-car/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: There’s much talk about driverless and autonomous cars, [not](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/424/in-what-year-will-half-of-new-cars-sold-in-the-us-be-fully-autonomous/) [just](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/776/when-will-the-next-fully-autonomous-car-fatality-occur/) [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/46/fully-autonomous-self-driving-cars-by-2018/), but also in the world at large. The Society of of Automotive Engineers is an association that, among other things, defines standard, for example for the levels of driving automation. The highest levels, levels 4 and 5, can be shortened to “minds off” and “steering wheel optional,” respectively. At the latter level the car has to be able to handle all common, if not all possible aspects of driving. The car would be effectively a wheeled robot, and the driver would be only its passenger. Driving under the influence (DUI) leads to hundreds of thousands accidents per year, only a small amount leads to a conviction. But with t...
-# Forecasts: 76
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 20%
-Description: [A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with "Yes" or "No", was "Should Scotland be an independent country?" The "No" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. Since 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?" with "Leave," and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with "Remain." The "Leave" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any ...
-# Forecasts: 578
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2578/will-an-airborne-wind-energy-system-of-at-least-100kw-be-sold-before-2022/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 45%
-Description: Context ======= Airborne Wind Energy (AWE) systems, essentially wind turbines in the sky (e.g. on kites or planes), have been promised for many years. There are several companies, many in Europe, that are working on AWE systems, including (but not limited to): --- [KITE KRAFT](http://www.kitekraft.de/English.html) --- [Kitepower](https://kitepower.nl/) --- [SkySails Group](https://skysails-group.com/) --- [Ampyx Power](https://www.ampyxpower.com/) --- [SkyPull](https://www.skypull.technology/) The basic advantages of AWE's are that one does not need a tower and therefore can use much less construction material to achieve the same amount of power, resulting in significant cost efficiencies. Furthermore, winds at high altitudes tend to be stronger and more stable than on the ground. AWE's also tend to be mobile, and controlled by software. Some AWE ventures are targeting containerized systems with a nominal power of 100kW. One, Kitepower, is [duration testing a 100kW system](https:...
-# Forecasts: 73
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will India become a World Bank high-income country?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2582/when-will-india-become-a-world-bank-high-income-country/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: India is the seventh-largest country by area, and with more than 1.3 billion people it is the second-most populous country and the most populous democracy in the world. GNI per capita, PPP (current international $) in India was [reported at $6,490 in 2016,](https://tradingeconomics.com/india/gni-per-capita-ppp-us-dollar-wb-data.html) according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. The World Bank has historically classified every economy as low, middle or high income. The World Bank further specifies its classes of countries into low, lower-middle, upper-middle and high income economies. The World Bank uses GNI per capita as the basis for this classification because it views GNI as a broad measure that is considered to be the single best indicator of economic capacity and progress. MICs are broken up into lower-middle income and upper-middle income economies. Lower-middle income economies have per capita GNIs between $1,006...
-# Forecasts: 145
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2585/when-will-the-us-national-debt-reach-25-trillion/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The national debt of the United States is the debt, or unpaid borrowed funds, carried by the federal government of the United States, which is measured as the face value of the currently outstanding Treasury securities that have been issued by the Treasury and other federal government agencies. [As of January 17 2019, debt held by the public was $16.094 trillion and intragovernmental holdings were $5.860 trillion, for a total or "National Debt" of $21.954 trillion.](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/pd_debttothepenny.htm) [You can view a live National Debt Clock here.](http://www.usdebtclock.org/) This question asks: When will the United States national debt reach $25 trillion nominal dollars? Resolution should cite figures from the US Treasury or credible media reports in the financial press.
-# Forecasts: 302
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: When will we have micropayments?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2592/when-will-we-have-micropayments/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: One of the things this author finds most baffling about the online world we've developed is the lack of a clean, easy, near-universal, private system of micropayments. The suprising and dismaying absence is nicely described in [this article](https://www.wired.com/story/shouldnt-we-all-have-seamless-micropayments-by-now/?mbid=social_twitter&utm_brand=wired&utm_campaign=wired&utm_medium=social&utm_social-type=owned&utm_source=twitter), asking Where are my digital micropayments? Where are those frictionless, integrated ways of exchanging money online—cryptographically protected to allow commerce but not surveillance? and lamenting: Of course, we already make payments online all the time, but under current conditions, frankly, it sucks to do so. If you buy things directly from small vendors, you’re stuck entering your credit card information, your email, and your billing address on site after site—sinking ever deeper into the surveillance economy as each digital form pu...
-# Forecasts: 79
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will North Korea have a McDonald's?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2593/when-will-north-korea-have-a-mcdonalds/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: There are more than [37,000 McDonald's locations around the world, spread across 121 countries and territories.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_McDonald%27s_restaurants#Countries_and_territories_with_a_McDonald's_outlet) McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant chain by revenue serving over 69 million customers daily and employing around 1.9 million employees, 1.5 million of whom work for franchises. In the 78 years since its founding, McDonald's has become an iconic brand and a quintessential example of American free enterprise and global capitalism. North Korea is a country of some 25.4 million people, is one of the last remaining communist states in the world, and currently has hosted no McDonald's locations in its history. North Korea has maintained one of the most closed and centralized economies in the world since the 1940s. [It is ranked 180th worldwide on the Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/northkorea) - the worst ran...
-# Forecasts: 105
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 60%
-Description: Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Andriod or IOS before 2023? This question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly downloadable in at least one country before the 31st December 2022.
-# Forecasts: 54
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2599/will-any-of-the-20-most-valuable-public-companies-in-the-united-states-as-of-january-2019-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 20%
-Description: As of close of trading on January 28 2019, the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States are as follows. (Name, ticker symbol, market cap in USD billions) 1--Microsoft Corporation MSFT 806.62 2-- [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) Inc AMZN 800.88 3--Alphabet Inc GOOG / GOOGL 760.23 4--Apple Inc AAPL 739.27 5--Facebook Inc FB 354.29 6--Johnson & Johnson JNJ 345.95 7--JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM 345.44 8--Exxon Mobil Corp XOM 301.62 9--Bank of America Corp BAC 290.79 10-Walmart Inc WMT 281.98 11-Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRK.B 273.85 12-UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH 256.64 13-Visa Inc V 238.97 14-Wells Fargo & Co (New) WFC 234.51 15-Procter & Gamble Company (The) PG 233.95 16-Pfizer Inc PFE 228.50 17-Verizon Communications Inc VZ 227.55 18-AT&T Inc T 223.22 19-Chevron Corporation CVX 214.33 20-Intel Corporation INTC 214.2 Note: Alphabet has three classes of equity securities, of which two are currently admitted to the markets, GOOG and GOOGL. The f...
-# Forecasts: 220
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the-united-states-before-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 8%
-Description: [The United States of America spends significantly more in absolute terms on its defense than any other country,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) and this has been the case since World War II. In 2017, US military spending accounted for some $610 billion, 35% of global military spending in that year. Will any country spend more on its military / defense in a given year before (and including) 2030 than the United States spends in the same year? Resolution should cite official budget figures from the United States and the other country in question. Resolves ambiguously if before a positive resolution results there ceases to be a country known as the United States. Our comparison will use three-year average of exchange rates to smooth effects of transitory exchange rate fluctuations.
-# Forecasts: 175
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2606/ai-to-prompt-new-starcraft/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 30%
-Description: Due to the DeepMind team's [recent achievements](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii/) with Alphastar, superhuman decision-making in StarCraft 2 is now on the horizon. I envision this technology becoming a platform that can be used by Blizzard and independent modders for many applications. One example is a neural network that not only plays the game, but does so by simulating human hands, a mouse, and a keyboard in order to represent human play as faithfully as possible. But in the short term, this could also be acheived by simply constraining Alphastar to mimic the human keystroke and mouse movement data that it already has access to. Right now the AI plays the game in ways that are probably impossible for humans to reproduce, but a properly constrained AI could discover the theoretical optimal strategies and meta for humans, which the player community could then learn from. Such accurately representative simulations would also make it ...
-# Forecasts: 54
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2611/will-synthetic-biological-weapons-infect-100-people-by-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 40%
-Description: A [synthetic biological weapon](https://futurism.com/project-spark-ontario-health-data) is a 'living' agent capable of infecting, harming, and/or killing a target host. For the purposes of this question, we focus on human hosts, exclude weapons that consist only of toxins, even if their source is biological: synthetic or otherwise. Nor does it include something like a genetically engineered mosquito carrying natural unmodified malaria. 'Living' means it must either be self-reproducing, like a bacteria or parasite, or like a virus, capable of hijacking a host cell to produce new copies of itself. A synthetic biological agent may be a 'natural' disease causing organism that has at least been genetically engineered (and not merely selectively bred); an entirely new kind of organism, virus, or similar created from scratch; or anything in between those extremes. If the agent is based on an existing disease causing organism, there must be confirmation that the symptoms of infection by the d...
-# Forecasts: 146
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will any Member State leave the Eurozone by 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2616/will-any-member-state-leave-the-eurozone-by-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 19%
-Description: The [Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone), officially called the euro area, is a monetary union of 19 of the 28 European Union (EU) member states which have adopted the euro (€) as their common currency and sole legal tender. The monetary authority of the eurozone is the Eurosystem. [The euro is the second largest and second most traded currency in the global foreign exchange market after the United States dollar.](https://www.bis.org/publ/rpfx13fx.pdf) The Eurozone consists of Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain. Other EU states (except for Denmark and the United Kingdom) are obliged to join once they meet the criteria to do so. No state has left, and there are no provisions to do so or to be expelled. Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, and Vatican City have formal agreements with the EU to use the euro as their official currency and i...
-# Forecasts: 197
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will Haiti become an upper middle-income country?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2617/when-will-haiti-become-an-upper-middle-income-country/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The World Bank has historically classified every economy as low, middle or high income. The World Bank further specifies its classes of countries into low, lower-middle, upper-middle and high income economies. The World Bank uses GNI per capita as the basis for this classification because it views GNI as a broad measure that is considered to be the single best indicator of economic capacity and progress. MICs are broken up into lower-middle income and upper-middle income economies. [For the current 2019 fiscal year](https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups), low-income economies are defined as those with a GNI per capita, calculated using the World Bank Atlas method, of $995 or less in 2017; lower middle-income economies are those with a GNI per capita between $996 and $3,895; upper middle-income economies are those with a GNI per capita between $3,896 and $12,055; high-income economies are those with a GNI per capita of $12...
-# Forecasts: 90
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 25%
-Description: [Real GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1A225NBEA) averaged 3.3% from 1930 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 8.7% in 1950 and a record low of -3.90% in the second quarter of 2009. This question asks: In any year before Q1 2030, will the US record real GDP annual growth rate of greater than 8.7%, beating the record set in 1950? For the purpose of this question, we shall refer to Real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year, as provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, or other reputable sources of economic data. Edit: (22 Feb 2019), the question now resolves positively if real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year exceeds 8.7% instead of resolving positively if annualised quarterly real GDP growth exceeds 13.4%.
-# Forecasts: 264
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the highest level of annual GDP growth in the US before 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [The Gross Domestic Product Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg?locations=us) averaged 3.20% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 7.3% in 1984. The Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded 3% in the third quarter of 2018 over the same quarter of the previous year. This question asks: Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage GDP growth in the US? The question resolves as the highest % growth in US GDP over a single calendar year (Jan-1 to Jan-1), achieved over the 2020 to 2030 period (inclusive). Resolution should cite figures from US Treasury or credible reports in the financial press.
-# Forecasts: 133
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Nigeria's population exceed 400 million before 2050?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2632/will-nigerias-population-exceed-400-million-before-2050/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 40%
-Description: The [Federal Republic of Nigeria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigeria) is a federal republic in West Africa, bordering Niger in the north, Chad in the northeast, Cameroon in the east, and Benin in the west. Nigeria is often referred to as the "Giant of Africa", owing to its large population and economy. With more than [199 million](http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/nigeria-population/) inhabitants, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and the seventh most populous country in the world. Nigeria has the third-largest youth population in the world, after India and China, with more than 90 million of its population under age 18. As of 2017, Nigeria [had the fastest growing population of the 10 most populous countries worldwide.](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/nigeria-pass-u-s-world-s-3rd-most-populous-country-n775371) Nigeria also has the [world's largest number of extremely poor people, with 87 million.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-22/six-p...
-# Forecasts: 132
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2638/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-2-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 65%
-Description: Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. However, one year before it first hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~$0.8 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question negative). Amazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap) . And one year before it hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~0.46 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question positive). Will the first publicly traded company to have a $2 trillion market cap be worth double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $2 trillion? This resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $2 trillion (adjusted to 2018 p...
-# Forecasts: 286
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will a robot poker player win a significant live (not online) competition?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2641/when-will-a-robot-poker-player-win-a-significant-live-not-online-competition/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Poker is a challenging game of bets, raises, and re-raises, calculation of odds and expected payoffs, game-theoretic mixed strategies, and tradeoffs between unexploitable and exploitative play. Poker is also a challenging game of visually identifying and then gripping small plastic discs and rectangles, and discriminating them between them based on their colors and symbols printed on their surfaces. These discs and rectangles must be moved around on a table in accordance with a game ruleset that is partially given in advance, and partly determined by verbal instruction from dealer and floor coordinator. An example of the complexity of object manipulation that is required: the rectangles belonging to the player must be picked up in such a way that the symbols on the front can be inspected by the player, but kept oriented so that no other player can inspect those symbols, until such time as the ruleset dictates that the cards and symbols be revealed. Violating this constraint can lead n...
-# Forecasts: 147
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversary?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Image recognition is a task of assigning a label to an image. There has been enormous progress in the last 10 years due to deep learning. However, in 2013 researchers pointed out certain [intriguing properties of neural networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1312.6199) . In particular, neural networks seem to suffer from a problem currently known as adversarial examples. Adversarial examples are images optimized so as to fool a machine learning algorithm, but remain unambiguous to humans. Current machine learning algorithms can be fooled by changes that are essentially impossible to perceive by humans. The issue of adversarial examples highlight differences in how humans and algorithms do image recognition. ["Adversarial Examples - A Complete Characterisation of the Phenomenon"](https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.01185) provides an extensive overview. Notably, adversarial examples can also be a security issue, for example by making it possible to bypass face or voice recognition used for authenticati...
-# Forecasts: 155
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: A tech boom to surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more by 2024?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2645/a-tech-boom-to-surpass-the-dotcom-bubble-for-one-quarter-or-more-by-2024/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 69%
-Description: Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade. [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001) To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable. [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf) The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease) : sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contri...
-# Forecasts: 272
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2646/what-will-the-necessary-computational-power-to-replicate-human-mental-capability-turn-out-to-be/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: A major uncertainty in understanding some timeline estimates for high-level AI is in estimating the minimal computational power necessary to perform the operations that the human brain does. Estimates in the literature (see appendix A on p. 84 of [this paper](http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) for a compilation) range from to FLOPS following a variety of methodologies. (For a comparison, the Landauer limit at 20 C is about bit erasures per second. However, the author has no clear idea how to convert between bit erasures and FLOPS.) This huge range will probably eventually be narrowed down to within an order-of-magnitude or two, and we ask for that number here. Assume that by 2075 there is either (a) a full software emulation of a human brain that can duplicate the basic functionality of a typical adult human of average intelligence; or (b) there is an AI system that can pass a full "strong" Turing test (i.e. the interview is long, adversarial, and include sens...
-# Forecasts: 197
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) be finished on time?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2649/will-the-square-kilometre-array-ska-be-finished-on-time/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 30%
-Description: The [Square Kilometre Array (SKA)](https://www.skatelescope.org/) is a proposed radio-telescope more than a 50 times more sensitive than the current record holder. With receiving stations extending out to a distance of at least 3,000 kilometres (1,900 mi) from a concentrated central core, it would exploit radio astronomy's ability to provide the highest resolution images in all astronomy. The SKA would be built in the southern hemisphere, with cores in South Africa and Australia, where the view of the Milky Way Galaxy is the best and radio interference at its least. As such it is a multinational effort with, as of this writing, 11 countries contributing. The creation of the SKA is separated into two phases: 1--Providing ~10% of the total collecting area at low and mid frequencies by 2023 (SKA1). 2--Completion of the full array (SKA2) at low and mid frequencies by 2030. These huge science project often face challenges on the political, administrative, and technological level; what i...
-# Forecasts: 104
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Volkswagen Group produce fewer than 22 million electric vehicles by 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2665/will-volkswagen-group-produce-fewer-than-22-million-electric-vehicles-by-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 63%
-Description: In [a recent press release](https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2019/03/VW_Group_JPK_19.html) the Volkswagen Group announced an expansion of their efforts in electric mobility, announcing a shift in their aims from 15 to 22 million vehicles produced in the next decade, CO2 neutrality by 2050, construction of hundreds of charging stations across Europe, and others. For this the Volkswagen Group established a [modular platform](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platform), which should enable them to achieve these numbers. Different brands of the VW group like Porsche, Audi, Škoda, and Seat are already making use of and building models with the MEB, set to be sold come 2020. Let’s check one of their (cl)aims with this prediction. Will Volkswagen Group have produced fewer than 22 million electric vehicles with their MEB by 2030? Resolution conditions: ---Only fully electric vehicles produced based upon the [MEB](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platfor...
-# Forecasts: 92
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Germany fail to meet their coal commission’s goals?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2666/will-germany-fail-to-meet-their-coal-commissions-goals/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 65%
-Description: After many months of deliberation Germany’s [Commission on Growth, Structural Change and Employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Growth,_Structural_Change_and_Employment) (colloquially called “Coal Commission”) finally published the 300 page report on 26 Jan 2019. In it the commission laid out plans on how the country could to entirely phase out its coal-fired power generation by 2038, with distinct markers in-between: ---Shut down brown coal based power plants by 3 GW and hard coal based ones by 4 GW by 2022; ---Decrease brown and hard coal based power plants by another 6 and 7 GW respectively by 2030; ---The last coal-fired power plant shall be shut down in/by 2038, with an option to fast-track this by three years. This falls short of some of the participating activists goals, but is at least a step in the right direction, especially considering some of Europe’s biggest CO2-emitting power plants are in Germany. However, policies are often under varying outside pr...
-# Forecasts: 84
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2669/will-world-gdp-grow-every-year-until-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 1%
-Description: The 2008 financial crisis was ["considered by many economists to have been the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008) . According to the World Bank (series ID: [NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2017&start=1961&view=chart)), 2009 was the only year since 1961 when the World GDP did not grow (it shrunk by 1.7%). Question: Will the World GDP grow for each of the next 6 years (2019-2024)? Estimates from the World Bank or some other reputable source shall serve for resolution. Exactly 0% growth counts as no growth. Failure to locate a good source after an honest effort resolves ambiguous. Resolution date is set to 2025, when we should get 2024 numbers. This question was inspired by [this related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/) and [that also-related o...
-# Forecasts: 725
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2671/will-the-united-states-fulfill-its-goal-of-landing-humans-on-the-moon-again-before-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 8%
-Description: On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176) [Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxvFsqevSdw) Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as ['just not good enough,'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming ['we're better than that.'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) Will a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025? In order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing...
-# Forecasts: 954
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2709/will-the-international-thermonuclear-experimental-reactor-iter-start-operating-by-end-of-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 17%
-Description: The [International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER) is an international nuclear fusion research and engineering megaproject. It is an experimental [tokamak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokamak) nuclear fusion reactor which will be the world's largest magnetic confinement plasma physics experiment. With thirty-five participating nations and an expected price tag [in excess of €20 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER#Funding), it is one of the largest international [scientific megaprojects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_megaprojects#Science_projects) . ITER began in 1985 as a Reagan–Gorbachev initiative with the equal participation of the Soviet Union, the European Atomic Energy Community, the United States, and Japan through the 1988–1998 initial design phases. The project aims to: --- Momentarily produce a fusion plasma with thermal power ten times greater than the injected thermal power (a [Q value](https://en.wikipedia...
-# Forecasts: 145
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income introduced in any EU country before 2041?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 75%
-Description: A Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) is a guaranteed minimum income above the poverty line that would be guaranteed to be paid to any person of age. Features of a GMI would be: [unconditional, automatic, non-withdrawable, individual, and as a right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income) . This doesn’t mean every person would receive that income, but the vast majority of the population of a country, region, or locale would be guaranteed a minimum income, no strings attached. The implementation can and would vary from state to state, according to the respective cultural, societal, and governmental conditions. So far there have been numerous experiments with UBI [in the US, Finland](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612640/universal-basic-income-had-a-rough-2018/), [Canada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_Canada), [Netherlands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_the_Netherlands), [and other countries](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_around_the_worl...
-# Forecasts: 156
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2713/will-there-be-more-people-with-hivaids-in-2037-than-in-2017/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 25%
-Description: The human immunodeficiency viruses ([HIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV)) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that causes HIV infection and over time Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ([AIDS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIDS)). AIDS is a condition in humans in which progressive failure of the immune system allows life-threatening opportunistic infections and cancers to thrive. Without treatment, average survival time after infection with HIV is estimated to be 9 to 11 years, depending on the HIV subtype. HIV/AIDS has had a large impact on society, both as an illness and as a source of discrimination. The disease also has large economic impacts.[ [1](http://data.unaids.org/pub/globalreport/2006/2006_gr_ch04_en.pdf) ] According to [UNAIDS](http://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet), in 2017 (the latest data available) 36.9 million people globally were living with HIV, 1.8 million people became newly infected with HIV, and 940,000 people died from AIDS-rel...
-# Forecasts: 200
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 33%
-Description: One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast. Many different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders. The [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois. So we ask: Will the first SOO Green Renewable Rail project co...
-# Forecasts: 86
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated by 2050?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2751/will-the-text-of-the-voynich-manuscript-be-successfully-translated-by-2050/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 40%
-Description: The [Voynich manuscript](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voynich_manuscript) is a hand-written codex which, according to carbon dating, originated in the 15th century. To this day, it is not known for certain whether the manuscript contains meaningful text or gibberish, let alone what language(s) it is written in or what the text might say. There are a few claimed solutions every year. Most recently there has been buzz about [a University of Bristol academic](https://phys.org/news/2019-05-bristol-academic-voynich-code-century-old.html) who claimed to have found a way to transliterate "Voynichese" to a form of Vulgar Latin. Like all other decipherment claims to date, this is not widely accepted by the Voynich expert community (as judging by the reactions on the [voynich.ninja](https://voynich.ninja/thread-2763.html) forum and [/r/linguistics](https://old.reddit.com/r/linguistics/comments/bouuhu/bristol_academic_cracks_voynich_code_solving/)). This question resolves positively if an attemp...
-# Forecasts: 116
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Apollo 10's Lunar Module be recovered by 2050?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2762/will-apollo-10s-lunar-module-be-recovered-by-2050/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 10%
-Description: The [Lunar Module](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_Lunar_Module) flown on [Apollo 10](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_10) is the only flown lunar module which didn't end up crashing into the Moon or burning up in Earth's atmosphere. After 'dress rehearsal' testing in lunar orbit, during which the Lunar Module came within 8.4 nautical miles of the lunar surface, the ascent engine performed a burn to depletion which sent the craft into interplanetary space and the vehicle is currently in a heliocentric orbit. The location of the Apollo 10 Lunar Module is unknown as of May 2019, but efforts are underway to find it. As a unique historical artefact from the original golden age of human spaceflight, this Lunar Module would certainly make for an interesting museum exhibit. This question asks: by 1 January 2050, will the lost ascent stage of the Apollo 10 Lunar Module be recovered (i.e. located, captured, and physically transported to some location where humans have a presence at t...
-# Forecasts: 103
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the first successful entirely artificial extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2769/when-will-the-first-successful-entirely-artificial-extracorporeal-human-pregnancy-conclude/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [Ectogenesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ectogenesis) is the growth of an organism in an artificial environment outside the body in which it would normally be found, such as the growth of an embryo or fetus outside the mother's body. Ectogenesis of human embryos and fetuses would require some kind of [artificial uterus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_uterus) . An artificial uterus would have to be supplied by nutrients and oxygen from some source to nurture a fetus, and would have to dispose of waste material. The potential development of technology allowing for humans to be created entirely ex vivo (that is, fertilisation by in-vitro fertilisation and the entire gestation of the zygote, embryo, and fetus taking place in an artificial environment) has far-reaching implications for humanity, enabling not only a dramatic change in respect of reproductive rights and neonatal medical care, but perhaps even the end of the natural human pregnancy as a cultural norm. An early fo...
-# Forecasts: 72
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How far away will the closest known Black Hole lay in 2031?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2771/how-far-away-will-the-closest-known-black-hole-lay-in-2031/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [Black Holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_hole) are regions of space time where the gravitational acceleration is so high nothing, not even light, can escape. They’re often the result of a sufficiently big star undergoing gravitational collapse at the end of its ‘life cycle’. Furthermore black holes can merge, forming ever more massive black holes, such can be found in the centre of our and other galaxies. They’re the most well known and in some aspect more easily researched black holes due to their mass, often as high as millions (our Milky Way’s supermassive black hole) or billions ([the recently imaged M87 supermassive black hole](https://eventhorizontelescope.org/)) solar masses. There are, however, [much closer known black holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nearest_black_holes) and black hole candidates, such as [QV Telescopii Ab](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HR_6819), the currently closest black hole, and also the first black hole associated with a naked eyes v...
-# Forecasts: 28
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2773/will-nigel-farage-become-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-before-2023/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 1%
-Description: [Nigel Paul Farage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage), born 3 April 1964, is a British politician, broadcaster, and political analyst currently serving as leader of the Brexit Party since March 2019 and as a Member of the European Parliament for the South East England constituency since 1999. He is best known as the former leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) from 2006 to 2009 and again from 2010 to 2016. Farage's decades-long campaign for the UK to leave the European Union culminated in the [2016 Brexit vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), in which the UK voted to withdraw from the EU. Since that vote, the UK has failed to achieve a negotiated exit from the EU and has agreed to extend the negotiating period until October 31 2019. In May 2019, Farage's new Brexit Party topped the poll in the [2019 European Parliament elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom...
-# Forecasts: 201
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a "cost per life saved" metric to compare them on. While they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be. Over time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previ...
-# Forecasts: 211
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2783/at-the-end-of-2023-will-animal-charity-evaluators-recommend-a-charity-working-on-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-as-a-top-charity/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 80%
-Description: Animal Charity Evaluators (ACE) is an organisation that reviews animal welfare charities in order to recommend the most cost-effective organisations to donate to. Charities that they evaluate as having a good track record, room for more funding, and high estimated cost-effectiveness are put on a shortlist of [top charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/), of which there are currently four. One of the cause areas that they evaluate organisations working in and consider to be high-priority is [reducing wild animal suffering](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/advocacy-interventions/prioritizing-causes/causes-we-consider/#reducing-wild-animal-suffering) . ACE [currently lists](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/all-charity-reviews/#filter=.wild-animal-suffering) two charities that they have considered and that are working this cause area; of these, Animal Ethics was considered a standout charity from 2015-2017, but none have e...
-# Forecasts: 154
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: By 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2788/by-2025-will-laws-be-in-place-requiring-that-ai-systems-that-emulate-humans-must-reveal-to-people-that-they-are-ai/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 67%
-Description: Cross-posted from [ai.metaculus](http://ai.metaculus.com) . Originally sourced from [Science Bets](http://sciencebets.org/one_sided_predictions.html) . As AI gets more powerful, it is likely that systems that can "pass a Turing test" and deceive people into believing that the AI is human will become available and controversial. For example, the Google Duplex bot courted controversy with its extremely accurate mimicking of a human's voice, dialogue, and cadence. Public backlash prompted Google to [announce that the system would always first identify itself as a bot](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-10/google-grapples-with-horrifying-reaction-to-uncanny-ai-tech) . By 2025, will there be laws in place in a country requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they use AI? Related Questions: [When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/418/when-will-the-first-law-concerning-a...
-# Forecasts: 129
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-launch-a-person-to-the-moon-before-2024/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 4%
-Description: Earlier this year US Vice President Mike Pence instructed NASA to launch the first woman and the next man to the surface of the Moon by 2024. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible. The [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars. [Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon sin...
-# Forecasts: 176
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2024?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2024/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 95%
-Description: Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II. Since then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come. This question resolves positive if no nuclear weapon is detonated before Jan 1, 2024, outside of controlled tests. Negative resolution could be triggered by: --- Deliberate nuclear attack. --- Accidental nuclear attack (launched by accident or on the basis of erroneous information.) --- Accidental detonation of a weapon. --- Nuclear terrorism. For these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusi...
-# Forecasts: 222
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as collatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) where input n is a positive integer. The [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) is that the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1) for all positive integers. When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved, either positively or negatively? Take into account the following statement which Paul Erdos may or may not have made about the Conjecture: "Mathematics may not be ready for such problems". The question resolves with a date of publication in a major mathematics journal. Other questions on the Collatz Conjecture: --- [Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) --- [Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) --- [When will the ...
-# Forecasts: 117
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Is the Collatz Conjecture true?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 93%
-Description: A sister question asks when the [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) will be resolved - here we ask which way it will turn out. Again, let's say that the Collatz Program in pseudocode is: collatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) where n is a positive integer. The Conjecture is that for all integer inputs the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1). For any particular execution of the Collatz program, there are three possible outcomes: 1) It moves up and down through input arguments of different sizes, until it encounters a power of 2, and then cascades down to 1, and halts. 2) It moves up and down through numbers of different sizes until it repeats a number. From that point onward it will repeat a cycle, and never halt. 3) It moves up and down through numbers of different sizes, but keeps expanding its frontier of numerical size, without ever repeating an input or encountering a power of 2. In...
-# Forecasts: 153
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 92%
-Description: In related questions, we asked whether the Collatz Conjecture is true and when it will be resolved one way or another. Here we ask more specifically whether we can predict the behavior of the corresponding program. Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as collatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) where input n is a positive integer. The Collatz Conjecture is that this program halts (and returns 1) for all integer inputs. Let's imagine a companion program called collatz_halts(), which takes an integer input n, always halts, and returns 1 if collatz() halts, and 0 otherwise. Does collatz_halts() exist? If collatz() always halts, then collatz_halts() definitely exists, because the answer is 1 for all inputs. If collatz_program() only halts for some n, then collatz_halts() might or might not exist. Note that if the Collatz Conjecture is false for only a finite number of inputs, then collatz_halts() exists, since the prog...
-# Forecasts: 82
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The [Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok) asks [whether there will be an AI catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) . Also interesting is when this catastrophe would occur, especially for its implications in how to best avert such a catastrophe. Given that a catastrophe resulting from an AI-failure-mode occurs before 2100, when will this occur? Resolution will be on the day when it is first true that such a catastrophe (defined as one that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less) that is principally due to the deployment of AI system(s) has occurred, or ambiguous if no such catastrophe occurs.
-# Forecasts: 148
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In related questions, we asked whether the Collatz Conjecture is true, when it will be resolved one way or the other, and whether a corresponding halting problem for the Collatz Program is computable. For completeness and symmetry, this question asks when the halting problem will be resolved. We can write the Collatz Program in pseudocode as collatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) where input n is a positive integer. Possible inputs to collatz() are divided into three sets: ---Set 1: Inputs for which collatz() halts, after eventually encountering a power of 2 ---Set 2: Inputs for which collatz() eventually encounters a number twice, and then cycles forever ---Set 3: Inputs that cause collatz() to forever avoid both repetition and powers of 2, exploring larger and larger numbers The Conjecture is that all integers belong to Set 1, and that Sets 2 and 3 are empty. The halting problem for the Collatz Program asks whether th...
-# Forecasts: 73
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2807/will-the-uk-housing-market-crash-before-july-2023/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 15%
-Description: As of 17 June 2019, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/content/uploads/2019/06/Rightmove-House-Price-Index-17-June-2019.pdf) indicates that the average cost of a property in the UK is £309,348; just £91 short of the all-time record reached in June 2018. In any month before July 2023, will the Rightmove House Price Index indicate that the average cost of a property is equal to or less than £216,543; a nominal decline of 30% from June 2019 levels? Resolves positively if so, negatively if not, and ambiguously if the Rightmove House Price Index is discontinued or its methodology is changed so substantially that administrators believe it is no longer reasonable to continue this question.
-# Forecasts: 342
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2812/if-a-whole-human-brain-is-successfully-emulated-by-2100-what-is-the-maximum-number-of-humans-that-will-be-uploaded-in-any-5-year-period/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relatively fine‐grained level of detail to produce the same outward behaviour as the original brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain.[ [1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) ] WBE has been proposed as a path to creating human-level digital intelligence.[ [2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em) ] An approach to WBE examined in in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), a comprehensive study on the topic, is one that involves destructive scanning, in which the brain is separated from other tissu...
-# Forecasts: 108
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the first whole human brain be successfully emulated?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relatively fine‐grained level of detail to produce the same outward behaviour as the original brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain.[ [1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) ] An approach to WBE examined in in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), a comprehensive study on the topic, is one that involves destructive scanning, in which the brain is separated from other tissue, sliced into thin slices, fixated and subsequently scanned accurately and a at a sufficiently high resolution. This process coul...
-# Forecasts: 127
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: In 2029, will the US have as many or fewer nuclear warheads than it did in 2019?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2817/us-having-fewer-nukes-in-2029-than-2019/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 70%
-Description: The size of the US's nuclear weapons stockpile reached a peak [in 1966 at around 30,000 warheads](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook-multimedia) . Following the deescalation and the end of the Cold War, the number has substantially decreased. [Kristensen and Korda (2019)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1606503) estimate that the US maintains a deployed stockpile of nearly 3,800 warheads. The approximate breakdown is as follows: ---1,750 warheads are currently deployed, of which ------1,300 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles, ------300 at strategic bomber bases in the United States, ------150 tactical bombs are deployed at air bases in Europe. ---2,050 are in storage as a so-called hedge against technical or geopolitical surprises. It is possible that this trend will reverse in a period of nuclear rearmament, especially if world tensions get worse. The Trump Administration’s [Nuclear Posture Review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N...
-# Forecasts: 150
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will NASA's SLS first launch a person to the Moon?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-first-launch-a-person-to-the-moon/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: United States' VP Mike Pence told NASA to accelerate human missions to the Moon ‘by any means necessary’ earlier this year. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible. The [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars. [Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17. The ...
-# Forecasts: 111
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2820/if-the-us-does-not-pursue-nuclear-disarmament-how-many-nuclear-warheads-will-it-have-in-2029/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The size of the US's nuclear weapons stockpile reached a peak [in 1966 at around 30,000 warheads](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook-multimedia) . Following the deescalation and the end of the Cold War, the number has substantially decreased. [Kristensen and Korda (2019)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1606503) estimate that the US maintains a deployed stockpile of nearly 3,800 warheads. The approximate breakdown is as follows: ---1,750 warheads are currently deployed, of which ------1,300 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles, ------300 at strategic bomber bases in the United States, ------150 tactical bombs are deployed at air bases in Europe. ---2,050 are in storage as a so-called hedge against technical or geopolitical surprises. It is possible that this trend will reverse in a period of nuclear rearmament, especially if world tensions get worse. The Trump Administration’s [Nuclear Posture Review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N...
-# Forecasts: 71
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated,
-how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2822/if-and-when-the-first-whole-human-brain-is-successfully-emulated-how-much-will-1-hour-of-subjective-run-time-cost/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Whole brain emulation (WBE) is the possible future one-to-one modelling of the human brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain. [ [1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) ] If whole brain emulation is possible, then one factor that might influence how it develops after being invented is how expensive it is per emulation. If it is cheap at the moment of discovery, there may be a rapid proliferation of ems quickly replacing human economic activity; if it is very expensive, then growth in the number of ems may be initially much slower. [Sandberg (2014)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2014-1.pdf) calls this the "overshoot" scenario, and proposes that the cost per em will be low if the last constraint to be solved is something other than h...
-# Forecasts: 103
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will there be another case of smallpox by the end of 2029?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2823/will-there-be-another-case-of-smallpox-by-the-end-of-2029/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 9%
-Description: The last two cases of smallpox in the world happened [in 1978](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_smallpox_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom), following the accidental exposure of Janet Parker to smallpox grown in a research laboratory below her workplace. After this, smallpox was declared eradicated, and there have been no cases since. However, the smallpox virus still exists; the US and Russia [maintain stocks of smallpox virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_virus_retention_debate) for research purposes in the World Health Organization approved facilities at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, United States, as well as the State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology in Koltsovo, Russia. These samples may not be needed, either; in 2017, Noyce et al. showed that it was possible to [contruct an infectious horsepox virus from chemically synthesised DNA fragments](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5774680/) in a small lab at a cost of about ...
-# Forecasts: 137
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2898/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-10-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 35%
-Description: Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. However, one year before it first hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~$0.8 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question negative). Amazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap) . And one year before it hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~0.46 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question positive). An important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. Paul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2...
-# Forecasts: 84
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 45%
-Description: In 1928, biologist Alexander Fleming discovered - by accident - that where the Penicillium mould had grown on a petri dish the bacteria nearby had been killed. This was due to a chemical the mould secreted, which he named "penicillin" - the antibiotic we know and love today. Since the discovery of penicillin, antibiotics have saved hundreds of millions of lives and become an essential part of modern medicine. But they're getting less effective. Repeated use has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a "serious, worldwide threat to public health" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/) . In 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website sugg...
-# Forecasts: 93
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the year 2035?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2942/how-many-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-in-the-us-in-the-year-2035/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Repeated use of antibiotics has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a "serious, worldwide threat to public health" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/) . In 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website suggests the figure is more like 37,000. I ask: How many deaths will be due to antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the calendar year 2035, according to an estimate by CDC or another credible source report? Resolution should be based on CDC estimates, or if not available, the median of credible estimates in reputable publications found by Metaculites and/or admin on the day the question is resolved. Related question: [Will the...
-# Forecasts: 50
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the global adult literacy rate reach 95%?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2943/when-will-the-global-adult-literacy-rate-reach-95/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Literacy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased roughly 5 percentage points every decade, from 55.7% in 1950 to 86.2% in 2015. However, for four decades, the population growth was so rapid that the number of illiterate adults kept increasing, rising from 700 million in 1950 to 878 million in 1990. Since then, the number has fallen markedly to 745 million in 2015, although it remains higher than in 1950 despite decades of universal education policies, literacy interventions and the spread of print material and information and communications technology. Literacy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased by 5 percentage points every decade on average, from 55.7 per cent in 1950 to 86.2 per cent in 2015. See [this document from UNESCO for more information, and page 21 in particular to reference the section quo...
-# Forecasts: 91
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the end of 2023?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2944/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-the-end-of-2023/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Currently (21 July 2019) 139,627 predictions have been made on Metaculus since being founded in late 2015. How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 31 December 2023 at 11:59 GMT? See also, [how many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 18 December 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1661/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-18-december-2019/)
-# Forecasts: 181
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many biological humans will be alive on the 31st of December 2300, conditional on there being more than 500M?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2954/how-many-biological-humans-will-be-alive-on-the-31st-of-december-2300-conditional-on-there-being-more-than-500m/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Long term population development is of great importance in questions about the far future. The United Nations write in a [report from 2004](https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/pais/research/researchcentres/csgr/green/foresight/demography/united_nations_world_population_to_2300.pdf) : In these projections, world population peaks at 9.22 billion in 2075. Population therefore grows slightly beyond the level of 8.92 billion projected for 2050 in the 2002 Revision, on which these projections are based. However, after reaching its maximum, world population declines slightly and then resumes increasing, slowly, to reach a level of 8.97 billion by 2300, not much different from the projected 2050 figure. In this question, it is asked: How many biological humans will be alive on the 31st of December 2300, conditional on there being more than 500M? The resolution comes from the latest report by the United Nations (or a comparable organisation representing the human species) before january 16th, 2300. I...
-# Forecasts: 130
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will Elon Musk have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2955/when-will-elon-musk-have-any-device-such-as-a-brain-machine-interface-surgically-implanted-into-his-brain/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: When will Elon Musk have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain? This question resolves positively if it is confirmed by reputable sources that Elon Musk has been subjected to surgery that inserted (parts of) a device into his brain tissue, for any reason other than monitoring or alleviating a disease and/or impairment. This device does not have to function in any specific way (or any way at all) for a positive resolution. For positive resolution, the implantation of at least part of the device needs to involve an intra-cranial insertion (hence a non-invasive headset system like [OpenBCI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenBCI) or [OpenWater](https://www.openwater.cc/) does not count). However, the part of the device inserted may be very small, e.g. an array of very thin threads such as those described in the [Neuralink paper](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2019/07/17/703801.full.pdf) would count. The specific device does not ha...
-# Forecasts: 198
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: In 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3019/in-2029-how-many-small-firearms-per-capita-will-there-be-in-the-usa-according-to-the-small-arms-survey/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The [Small Arms Survey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_Arms_Survey) collects the number of civilian held small firearms per capita in a list of countries and territories. In the [2017 survey](http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/fileadmin/docs/T-Briefing-Papers/SAS-BP-Civilian-Firearms-Numbers.pdf) (published in 2018), the USA was #1, with ~1.2 guns per person. In 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey? Resolution: ---Resolves to the number published in the Small Arms Survey for the year 2029 (whenever the first such number is published) ---If the Small Arms Survey is discontinued, or otherwise not yet published as of December 2030, or if it fundamentally changes its methodology (e.g. by changing the class of weapons it counts) a new source will be chosen by Metaculus admins. ---If no suitable replacement is found, this resolves ambiguous.
-# Forecasts: 156
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will an AI pass the laugh test?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In [this article](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test) computer scientist Gary Marcus laid down the gauntlet: ...allow me to propose a Turing Test for the twenty-first century: build a computer program that can watch any arbitrary TV program or YouTube video and answer questions about its content.... no existing program—not Watson, not Goostman, not Siri—can currently come close to doing what any bright, real teenager can do: watch an episode of “The Simpsons,” and tell us when to laugh. For the purposes of this question, assume that a data set has been created based on labeling of at least 100 episodes of a television comedy (obviously without laugh track/studio audience and preferably but not necessarily The Simpsons.) Using at most 25 episodes as part of the training corpus, when will an ML system achieve 90% of human accuracy when tested on 25 other different randomly chosen episodes? Fine print: --- The accuracy metric is unspeci...
-# Forecasts: 101
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the significant discrepancies in Hubble parameter determinations be resolved by 2030 within the ΛCDM standard cosmological model?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3021/will-the-significant-discrepancies-in-hubble-parameter-determinations-be-resolved-by-2030-within-the-%25CE%25BBcdm-standard-cosmological-model/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 50%
-Description: The Hubble "constant", , is basically the current expansion rate of the universe (the expansion rate varies with time). Two main ways to [determine the value of ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble%27s_law#Measured_values_of_the_Hubble_constant) are based on different approaches contrasting early universe vs late universe methodologies. The issue is that the values determined by these two independent methods have now widened to the point where there is a significant statistical difference of approximately 4 to 5 sigma between the two, despite the increasing precision of each method's results over time. This difference is now widely considered among experts as having become a problem for the [ΛCDM standard model of cosmology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambda-CDM_model) (or even, among some, as a crisis). Continuing observational projects and theoretical work have been dedicated at attempts to understand and resolve the discrepancy. A mid-July 2019 [workshop at the Kavli Institute ...
-# Forecasts: 49
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: If there is a biotechnological or bioengineered organism catastrophe this century, when will it happen?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3023/if-there-is-a-biotechnological-or-bioengineered-organism-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The [Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok) asks whether there will be a [biotechnological catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/), for example from an engineered virus or a gene drive targeted on humans. Since biotechnology is becoming more advanced and cheaper as time goes on, potentially faster than humanity's abilities to prevent pandemics, it is plausible that the time of greatest risk from bioengineering will be in the future. Given that a catastrophe resulting from a biotechnology or bioengineered organisms occurs before 2100, when will this occur? Resolution will be on the day when it is first true that such a catastrophe (defined as one that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less) that is principally due to the deployment of biotechnologies or bioeng...
-# Forecasts: 61
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the first human baby from stem cell-derived gametes be born?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3034/when-will-the-first-human-baby-from-stem-cell-derived-gametes-be-born/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: At some point in the future, it will become possible to derive gametes from embryonic pluripotent stem cells (PSCs). Differentiation of PCSs into eggs and sperm would provide researchers with a powerful tool for studying human gametogenesis. Perhaps even more importantly, it would allow infertile couples and same-sex couples to have offspring that is genetically related to both parents. A [2008 report](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/Consensus_HG08_FINAL.pdf) by the [Hinxton Group](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/) —a global network of stem cell researchers—tentatively predicted in vitro genesis of human gametes between 2013 and 2023. A number of recent papers discuss advances in the field and remaining challenges ahead.[ [1](https://www.gwern.net/docs/genetics/selection/2018-yamashiro.pdf) ] [ [2](https://rbej.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12958-017-0308-8) ] [ [3](https://europepmc.org/articles/pmc6396646) ] The question asks: When will the first human being conceived in vitro from ste...
-# Forecasts: 80
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the odds ratio of Metaculus' community prediction of the chance of AI catastrophe by 2100 either half or double from its value on 2019-08-21?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3040/when-will-the-odds-ratio-of-metaculus-community-prediction-of-the-chance-of-ai-catastrophe-by-2100-either-half-or-double-from-its-value-on-2019-08-21/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: As of 2019-08-21, Metaculus' community prediction gives a probability of 0.38 [that there will be a global catastrophe reducing the population by at least 10%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), and a probability of of 0.29 [that this catastrophe will be due to an AI failure mode](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/), for a probability of 0.1102, corresponding to an [odds ratio](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Odds_ratio) of 0.124. Halving this odds ratio corresponds to a probability of 0.0583, and doubling this odds ratio corresponds to a probability of 0.1985. The Metaculus prediction leaving this range would represent a substantial increase in the community's confidence on whether or not AI is a major risk. This may either be be...
-# Forecasts: 54
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3042/will-wildfires-destroy-a-total-exceeding-10mha-of-global-tree-cover-in-any-year-by-the-end-of-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 43%
-Description: In this year so far, scientists have recorded [more than 74,000 fires in Brazil](http://queimadas.dgi.inpe.br/queimadas/portal/situacao-atual) . That's nearly double 2018's total of about 40,000 fires. The surge marks an 83 percent increase in wildfires over the same period of 2018, [Brazil's National Institute for Space Research reported](https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-rainforest-experiencing-record-number-of-wildfires-this-year-2019-8?international=true&r=US&IR=T) . Natural disasters like fires and tropical storms are an increasingly common cause of deforestation, especially as climate change makes these more frequent and severe. In 2016, a sharp increase in forest fires stoked record losses in global forest cover equivalent to the area of New Zealand[ [1](https://phys.org/news/2017-10-forest-contributed-global-tree-loss.html) ], according to [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR), an initiative by the [World Resources Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
-# Forecasts: 67
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/when-will-any-country-have-a-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-of-at-least-100-years/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively. Of 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years. This question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country? By 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually. By 'country,' this question re...
-# Forecasts: 120
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the first organ from a non-primate be successfully transplanted into a human?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3052/when-will-the-first-organ-from-a-non-primate-be-successfully-transplanted-into-a-human/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The extreme difficulty of obtaining sufficient organ donations means that many lives (and much quality of life) are lost each year due to the deficiency. A promising possibility is [xenotransplantation](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/xenotransplantation), in which animal, e.g. pig, organs are substituted for human ones. This is a surprisingly viable possibility, and would provide an array of advantages (other than perhaps to the pig.) There are two significant problems. First, non-human organs tend to be [rejected very quickly](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenotransplantation#Hyperacute_rejection) by human hosts. Second, [pig cells in particular create a host of native viruses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenotransplantation#Porcine_endogenous_retroviruses) (even without infection) and there is significant concern that these might adapt to be new human pathogens if widely placed in human hosts. Nonetheless significant progress is being made in addressing both challenge...
-# Forecasts: 99
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many hours will the average American employee work per week in 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3054/how-many-hours-will-the-average-american-employee-work-per-week-in-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: According to [Our World in Data,](https://ourworldindata.org/working-hours) the average American worked 62 hours per week in 1870. By the year 2000 this had declined to 40.25 hours per week; a decrease of over 35%. As of July 2019, the average American employee on US private nonfarm payrolls [worked 34.4 hours per week according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/average-weekly-hours) Over the coming decades, it is possible that [new technologies](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/jack-ma-proponent-of-12-hour-work-days-foresees-12-hour-workweeks/2019/08/29/fd081370-ca2a-11e9-9615-8f1a32962e04_story.html?noredirect=on) and [changes in working practices](https://hbr.org/2018/12/the-case-for-the-6-hour-workday) will enable workers to work fewer hours per week. This question asks: in January 2030, how many hours per week will the average employee on US private nonfarm payrolls work, according to either the U.S. Bureau of La...
-# Forecasts: 80
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will a generative model produce a realistic 2-minute video, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3056/when-will-a-generative-model-produce-a-realistic-2-minute-video-at-a-256--256-resolution-or-better/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Unlike the field of image generation where many studies have succeeded in generating high-resolution and high-fidelity realistic images, video generation with unconditional GANs is still a challenging problem ([Saito et al., 2018](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1811.09245.pdf)). A reason videos might be a harder problem than images is the that videos require larger memory and computational costs than static images (ibid.), and therefore involve increased data complexity [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf) . Recently, an article by DeepMind [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf), introduced the Dual Video Discriminator GAN (DVD-GAN), that scales to longer and higher resolution videos. It beat previous attempts on various performance metrics for synthesis on the Kinetics-600 dataset. [DVD-GAN](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf) synthesized video with a 3.35 [Fréchet Inception Distance score](https://papers.nips.cc/paper/7240-gans-trained-by-a-two...
-# Forecasts: 71
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will there be a publicly listed clean meat company?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). An IPO can help a company raise capital quickly to support research and development and get products successfully to market. IPOs are a popular strategy amongst biotech companies to commercialise nascent technologies [(McNamee and Ledley, 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.2711) . The median pre-money valuation of new biotech offerings [was roughly $350M in 2018](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucebooth/2018/09/24/the-rising-tide-of-biotech-ipo-valuations/#60aef2db65a8) . When will there be a publicly listed clean meat company? Resolution This question resolves as the date when a privately held clean meat company first issues shares that are listed on an exchange and can be purchased by a ...
-# Forecasts: 182
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). [Estimates reveal](http://elliot-swartz.squarespace.com/) that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years. Alternative meat product company valuations can take off quickly, as illustrated by the example of Beyond Meat, which within 10 years has grown its market capitalisation [beyond $10bn](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=beyond+meat+market+cap&meta=) . When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn, in 2019 prices? Resolution Positive resolution requires that, within six months after the clean meat company reaching the nominal $1bn valuation, at least three articles are published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as ...
-# Forecasts: 126
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). If success in the production and commercialisation of clean meat is easily replicable by competitors, one might expect that multiple companies will reach the $1bn milestone in short succession of each other. This may occur if clean meat companies face a common limiting factor, that is removed by way of scientific discovery that is used to lower costs, or by sudden regulatory change. Moreover, if the clean meat market is expected to be very valuable, then more companies will be trying to succeed, resulting in more competition that may be more beneficial if we want clean meat products to replace a non-trivial portion of existing markets for meat more quickly. How many months after the first clean m...
-# Forecasts: 124
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of USD?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3065/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2027-in-millions-of-usd/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). [Estimates reveal](http://elliot-swartz.squarespace.com/) that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years. As of time of writing this question (August, 2019), no clean meat products have yet been brought to market. For a point of comparison, data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based meat generated [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) in the year ending April, 2018. How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of 2019 USD? Resolution This question resolves as a credible estimate of the revenue by companies...
-# Forecasts: 97
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030, in millions of USD?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3077/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2030-in-millions-of-usd/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). [Estimates reveal](http://elliot-swartz.squarespace.com/) that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years. As of time of writing this question (August, 2019), no clean meat products have yet been brought to market. For a point of comparison, data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based meat generates [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) . How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030, in millions of 2019 USD? Resolution This question resolves as a credible estimate of the revenue by companies generated from the sale of cl...
-# Forecasts: 83
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many Starlink satellites will be in operation at the end of 2027?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3078/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-in-operation-at-the-end-of-2027/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)) : Starlink is a satellite constellation development project underway by American company SpaceX, to develop a low-cost, high-performance satellite bus and requisite customer ground transceivers to implement a new space-based Internet communication system. According to [this Space News article](https://spacenews.com/fcc-oks-lower-orbit-for-some-starlink-satellites/), they intend to launch 12 000 satellites by the end of 2027. As of the 22nd of March 2019, 62 have been launched (at least [57 are operational](https://spacenews.com/contact-lost-with-three-starlink-satellites-other-57-healthy/)), with 60 more scheduled in October 2019. Quite a long way to go. Question: How many Starlink satellites will be in orbit and operational at the end of 2027? Resolution details: ---Resolution is by credible media report. ---This is insensitive to the project changing name, being bought by another company, etc....
-# Forecasts: 186
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3081/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-20-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The price of clean meat has fallen [from $330,000/pound in 2013](https://www.fastcompany.com/3044572/the-325000-lab-grown-hamburger-now-costs-less-than-12) to [around $800 in 2018](http://jlm-biocity.org/future-meat-technologies-raises-2-2-million-lab-grown-meat/), and is [expected to fall even further](https://vegnews.com/2019/7/price-of-lab-grown-meat-to-plummet-from-280000-to-10-per-patty-by-2021) . In 2017, [Mark Post](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Post), chief science officer at Mosa Meat, [predicted the following in 2017](https://labiotech.eu/interviews/interview-mark-post-cultured-meat/) : For small-scale, somewhat expensive products, most companies will have cultured meat products on the market in 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021). It will probably take another 3–4 years (i.e., 2023–2025) for the price to come down to the level where it’s acceptable for the broader public. In 2015, "restaurant" [Bistro in Vitro](http://bistro-invitro.com/en/bistro-invitro/) offers virtual diners...
-# Forecasts: 102
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Bear with me, this is a thought experiment. Imagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards. What is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)? The "magic" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings. Qualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me: A) p = 0%: The World is deterministic B) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny. C) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy. I'm writing a paper about this now and ver...
-# Forecasts: 211
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The price of clean meat has fallen [from $330,000/pound in 2013](https://www.fastcompany.com/3044572/the-325000-lab-grown-hamburger-now-costs-less-than-12) to [around $800 in 2018](http://jlm-biocity.org/future-meat-technologies-raises-2-2-million-lab-grown-meat/), and is [expected to fall even further](https://vegnews.com/2019/7/price-of-lab-grown-meat-to-plummet-from-280000-to-10-per-patty-by-2021) . In 2017, [Mark Post](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Post), chief science officer at Mosa Meat, [predicted the following in 2017](https://labiotech.eu/interviews/interview-mark-post-cultured-meat/) : For small-scale, somewhat expensive products, most companies will have cultured meat products on the market in 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021). It will probably take another 3–4 years (i.e., 2023–2025) for the price to come down to the level where it’s acceptable for the broader public. In 2015, "restaurant" [Bistro in Vitro](http://bistro-invitro.com/en/bistro-invitro/) offers virtual diners...
-# Forecasts: 67
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3087/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-20-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at [Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/) [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, [he remarked](https://youtu.be/PVEu6TSKhD0?t=3954) : When will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think. Bringing clean meat to the shelves is [explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/faq) to "within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products." Mosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a co...
-# Forecasts: 103
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at [Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/) [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, [he remarked](https://youtu.be/PVEu6TSKhD0?t=3954) : When will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think. Bringing clean meat to the shelves is [explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/faq) to "within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products." Mosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a co...
-# Forecasts: 123
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3091/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based alternative foods have grown 11 percent in the past year, and 31% over the past two years ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). By comparison, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years. This brings the total plant-based alternatives market value to a total value of $4.5 billion in 2019. At [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) the plant-based meat market is the second highest grossing plant-based alternatives product, after plant-based milk. Most dollar-sales of plant-based meat tend to come from frozen products (73% in 2019). However, this seems to changing quickly: product innovation and merchandising strategies have grown dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat by 85% ([Good Food Ins...
-# Forecasts: 124
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2028?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3095/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2028/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based alternative foods have grown 11 percent in the past year, and 31% over the past two years ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). By comparison, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years. This brings the total plant-based alternatives market value to a total value of $4.5 billion in 2019. At [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) the plant-based meat market is the second highest grossing plant-based alternatives product, after plant-based milk. Most dollar-sales of plant-based meat tend to come from frozen products (73% in 2019). However, this seems to changing quickly: product innovation and merchandising strategies have grown dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat by 85% ([Good Food Ins...
-# Forecasts: 52
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2026?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In June 2016, Uma Valeti, CEO of Memphis Meats reported a production cost of about €36,200/kg, which represents an 18-fold price reduction compared with the €650,000/kg burger unveiled in 2013. Mark Post, the chief science officer of Mosa Meat, [announced in late 2015 that](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lI9AwxKfTY), by combining pharmaceutical bioreactor technology to existing tissue culture techniques it'd be possible reduce costs to €60/kg of cultured ground beef. [(Sentience Politics, 2016; p.g. 6)](https://ea-foundation.org/files/cultured-meat.pdf) points out that existing farm subsidies essentially create a barrier to entry for clean meat producers: while the cost of cultured meat should aim to match that of regular meat, the current market average of meat is artificially low as a result of heavy government subsidising of animal agriculture. Mark Post has also made more predictions. In 2017, he [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringi...
-# Forecasts: 87
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2029?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3104/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2029/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In June 2016, Uma Valeti, CEO of Memphis Meats reported a production cost of about €36,200/kg, which represents an 18-fold price reduction compared with the €650,000/kg burger unveiled in 2013. Mark Post, the chief science officer of Mosa Meat, [announced in late 2015 that](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lI9AwxKfTY), by combining pharmaceutical bioreactor technology to existing tissue culture techniques it'd be possible reduce costs to €60/kg of cultured ground beef. [(Sentience Politics, 2016; p.g. 6)](https://ea-foundation.org/files/cultured-meat.pdf) points out that existing farm subsidies essentially create a barrier to entry for clean meat producers: while the cost of cultured meat should aim to match that of regular meat, the current market average of meat is artificially low as a result of heavy government subsidising of animal agriculture. Mark Post has also made more predictions. In 2017, he [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringi...
-# Forecasts: 84
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours, before Sep 15 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3106/when-will-a-discernible-coordinated-bitcoin-mining-pool-attain-50-of-the-hashing-power-for-24-hours-before-sep-15-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [51% attacks](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/51-attack.asp) are an important vulnerability of proof-of-work blockchains. [In 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghash.io#51%_attack_controversy), [Ghash.io](http://Ghash.io) gained more than 50% of the hashing power in Bitcoin’s mining network, which could have resulted in a [51% attack](https://en.bitcoinwiki.org/wiki/51%25_attack) . Ghash instead voluntarily reduced their hashing power to below 40%. No mining pool has been above 50% of hashing power since then, although 51% attacks have been successfully conducted on blockchains with vastly smaller hash rates, such as Ethereum Classic (ETC). On what date will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for any 24-hour period before Sep 15, 2025? 1-- The reported >=50% hash rate event can be reported as having taken place during any 24-hour period, and is not timezone-dependent. 2-- If the question does not resolve positively by Sep 15 ...
-# Forecasts: 87
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3107/how-much-will-the-total-us-plant-based-milk-market-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023-in-millions-of-usd/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based milk totalled $1.86 billion in the year ending April 2019 ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). Plant-based milk alone accounts for almost half of the total plant-based alternative foods market. Dollar sales of plant-based milk grew 6% in the past year and 14% over the past two years. Plant-based milk currently accounts for 13% of all dollar sales of retail milk. How much will the total US plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of 2019 USD? Resolution This question will resolve as the value of the US market for plant-based milk, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) . The market value is to be adjusted for inflation and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the US market for plant-based foods is the sum of their estimates of...
-# Forecasts: 87
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3108/how-much-will-the-total-us-plant-based-foods-market-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023-in-millions-of-usd/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based foods was worth almost $4.5 billion in the year ending April 2019 ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). Dollar sales of plant-based alternative foods grew 11% in the past year and 31% over the past two years. By contrast, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years. Currently, plant-based milk is the most developed of all plant-based categories, contributing roughly $1.9bn in the year ending April 2019, followed by “other plant-based dairy” and then plant-based meat. The least developed category, but one of the fastest growing, is plant-based eggs. How much will the total U.S. plant-based alternative food market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of 2019 USD? Resolution This question will resolve as the value of the...
-# Forecasts: 149
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 25%
-Description: [Harry Markopolos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markopolos) is known for having reported the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme. Now he has put out a [report](http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2019/8/15/2019_08_15_GE_Whistleblower_Report.pdf) claiming that General Electric is conducting large-scale accounting [fraud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Electric#Fraud_allegations) . Several analysts have defended GE, describing the report’s analysis as [uncompelling](https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-comfortable-with-ges-accounting-shrugs-off-markopolos-report-51567525632) and [incorrect](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3496236-deutsche-bank-buying-ge-fraud-report) . GE has denied these charges, and described Markopolos’ report as [market manipulation](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ge-accounts-ceo/ge-ceo-calls-markopolos-report-market-manipulation-and-false-idUSKCN1V525O) (Markopolos will [receive a cut](https://youtu.be/2VCtB3E0JB0?t=433) ...
-# Forecasts: 128
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3112/will-mars-have-a-permanent-population-of-10000-before-the-moon-does/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 39%
-Description: Mars is often disussed as a target for mass colonization and eventual terraforming, notably by SpaceX. The Moon does not seem to be viewed as a future 'alternative' to Earth in the same way that Mars is. Stats to consider: Distance ---Mars: between 55 and 400 million km from Earth (0.37 to 2.7 AU). It comes nearest to Earth every 2.14 years, or ~26 months. ---The Moon: ~0.38 million km from Earth (~0.0026 AU). One-way communication lag ---Mars: between 3 to 22 minutes ---The Moon: ~1.3 seconds Gravity ---Mars: 0.38 g ---The Moon: 0.17 g Rotation period ---Mars: 25 hours ---The Moon: 1 month Atmosphere ---Mars: mostly CO2, at ~1% the pressure of Earth's. ---The Moon: negligible if any. Solar energy ---Mars: ~44% of Earth's, but occasional dust storms can bring this down to almost nothing. ---The Moon: same as Earth's, but with no clouds or other interference. This question is resolved when either the Moon or Mars has 10,000 people living on the body who have been residents f...
-# Forecasts: 225
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6039332/#b1-ajas-31-7-1007) . The beef cow inventory fluctuates considerably from year to year, and can be influenced by market conditions and environmental factors, such as weather and rainfall (ibid.). In the United States, about 320 million hectares are used for livestock grazing, which is equivalent to 41% of the total land area of the continental USA [(USDA, 2017)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/major-land-uses.aspx) . Commercial cattle slaughter during 2018 totaled 33.0 million head, up 3 percent from 2017. Steers comprised 51.2 percent of the total federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 28.2 percent, dairy cows 9.7 percent, other cows 9.3 percent, and bulls 1.7 percent [(USDA, 2019)](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/r207tp32d/8336h934w/hq37...
-# Forecasts: 127
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3115/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-between-8-and-20-per-kg/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6039332/#b1-ajas-31-7-1007) . The beef cow inventory fluctuates considerably from year to year, and can be influenced by market conditions and environmental factors, such as weather and rainfall (ibid.). In the United States, about 320 million hectares are used for livestock grazing, which is equivalent to 41% of the total land area of the continental USA [(USDA, 2017)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/major-land-uses.aspx) . Commercial cattle slaughter during 2018 totaled 33.0 million head, up 3 percent from 2017. Steers comprised 51.2 percent of the total federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 28.2 percent, dairy cows 9.7 percent, other cows 9.3 percent, and bulls 1.7 percent [(USDA, 2019)](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/r207tp32d/8336h934w/hq37...
-# Forecasts: 142
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 77%
-Description: The [land speed record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_speed_record) (or absolute land speed record) is the highest speed achieved by a person using a vehicle on land. There is no single body for validation and regulation; in practice the Category C ("Special Vehicles") flying start regulations are used, officiated by regional or national organizations under the auspices of the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA). The land speed record (LSR) is standardized as the speed over a course of fixed length, averaged over two runs (commonly called "passes"). Two runs are required in opposite directions within one hour, and a new record mark must exceed the previous one by at least one percent to be validated. The current land speed record was set on October 15, 1997 by Andrew Duncan Green, a British Royal Air Force fighter pilot, who achieved a speed of 1,228 km/h (763 mph) with the [ThrustSSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThrustSSC), which became the first land vehicle to off...
-# Forecasts: 140
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3120/how-many-publicly-traded-us-or-eu-based-plant-based-meat-producers-will-be-valued-at-1bn-or-more-on-october-4th-2023/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In 2019, the stock price of plant-based unicorn [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/products/) [surged more than fivefold](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BYND/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGHCAq2S7UgkM_-LfR9bJZjCSy4dNORI1epAhOMlBLFWwanEmcwe6Iz5vklhYpHkG8qtHXlpA1lsrbznIw0LX6dctwniYEBxhL8Bs2NgYFQzPttra9RDUR0XGqTeuZ8SsUxokL8WfeEY6Lo9RNwowJF8BI8pdQNjzauRmjdqwAUI) in less than two months after it IP-Oed on the 3rd of May. The California-based startup is one of many producers developing innovative processes to more closely replicate the structure and taste of real meat using only plant-based ingredients. How many publicly traded US- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more in October of 2023? Resolution This question resolves as the number of publicly traded plant-based meat producers that simultaneously valued at above $1bn at noon in local time on October 4th (i.e. [world animal day](https:/...
-# Forecasts: 73
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)). When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? This question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively. If this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves ...
-# Forecasts: 115
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3124/will-us-non-overseas-contingency-operations-military-deaths-exceed-3000-in-any-calendar-year-before-and-including-2031/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 20%
-Description: According to [USNI News reporting](https://news.usni.org/2019/06/05/document-trends-in-active-duty-military-deaths) on the May 20, 2019 Congressional Research Service report: Since 2006—five years after the start of major combat operations in Afghanistan and three years after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq—a total of 16,652 active-duty personnel and mobilized reservists have died while serving in the U.S. Armed Forces. Seventy-three percent of these casualties occurred under circumstances unrelated to war, a category classified in this report as Non-Overseas Contingency Operations, or Non-OCO. Twenty-seven percent have died while serving in OCO operations—primarily within the territory of Iraq and Afghanistan—during periods of active combat operations. OCO operations related to Afghanistan primarily include Enduring Freedom and Freedom’s Sentinel. For Iraq, OCO operations include Iraqi Freedom, New Dawn, and Inherent Resolve. Figure 1 summarizes all service deaths since 2006. Will US No...
-# Forecasts: 92
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3125/will-the-united-states-continue-to-be-among-the-20-countries-with-the-largest-deterioration-in-state-stability-over-the-2019-2029-period-according-to-the-fragile-states-index/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 55.00000000000001%
-Description: [The Fragile State Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragile_States_Index) is an important metric of government stability. It is published every year [here](https://fragilestatesindex.org/) . According to the [2019 report](https://fragilestatesindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/9511904-fragilestatesindex.pdf) (see page 11), over the 2009 to 2019 period, The US was #12 among the countries with the most rapidly deteriorating Fragile States Index. The US was still among the more stable nations in the world but the trend was clearly in the direction of less stability. Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the [Fragile States Index](http://(https://fragilestatesindex.org)) ? This question resolves positively if the United States is amongst the 20 countries with the largest long-term increase (worsening) of fragile state score over the 2019-2029 period. If for some reason, [F...
-# Forecasts: 46
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 10%
-Description: A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator) : The main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. The competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. By contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)) : A heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upp...
-# Forecasts: 85
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in the U.S. state of Alaska. The bridge/tunnel would provide a connection linking North America and Eurasia. According to the [dedicated Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing#21st_century), various proposals have been made to build such a crossing: According to a report in the Beijing Times in May 2014, Chinese transportation experts are proposing building a roughly 10,000 kilometer (6,213 mi)-long high-speed rail line from northeast China to the United States. The project would include a tunnel under the Bering Strait and connect to the contiguous United States via Canada. Several American entrepreneurs have advanced private-sector proposals, such as an Alaska-based limited liability company founded in 2010 to lobb...
-# Forecasts: 71
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How much will be estimated to have been invested by VCs in U.S.-based plant-based meat startups, in millions of USD, in the calendar year 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3138/how-much-will-be-estimated-to-have-been-invested-by-vcs-in-us-based-plant-based-meat-startups-in-millions-of-usd-in-the-calendar-year-2022/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: According to [a report by The Good Food Institute (GFI)](https://www.gfi.org/industry), in 2018, an estimated $673 million invested was invested in companies involved in the supply chain of plant-based meat, eggs, and dairy. In that year, venture capital was the most common type of funding, representing 43% of the total 233 completed deals that year. How much will be estimated to have been invested by VCs in U.S.-based plant-based meat startups, in the calendar year 2022, in millions of USD, in 2019 prices? Resolution This question resolves as a credible estimate of the amount of venture capital investment in U.S.-based plant-based companies in the calendar year 2022. The amount of investment is to be adjusted for inflation using a suitable U.S. CPI from the Bureau of Labour Statistics. The estimate should originate from a credible independent source, preferably by nonprofit research organisation focussing on plant-based meat and related technologies, such as the [Good Food Institute](...
-# Forecasts: 128
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will a genetic change cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [A 2019 article has argued](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y) that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited animals used in meat production is "not fit for purpose". Under the current system, the employment any technology that utilizes recombinant DNA (rDNA) in food animal breeding programs automatically triggers regulatory oversight that has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. The article argues that delaying or preventing the use of this technology in animal breeding programs is associated with very opportunity costs in terms of foregone genetic improvement. It is not just the presence of a transgenic rDNA construct (i.e. an organism with a segment of DNA containing a gene sequence that has been isolated from another organism) that triggers mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release, but rather it is the presence of any “intentionally altered genomic DNA” in an animal that initiates oversi...
-# Forecasts: 88
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3141/when-will-100-people-or-more-be-in-space-or-on-any-astronomical-body-other-than-earth-simultaneously/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: As of September 2019, the record for the greatest number of humans in space at one time is 13. [This has happened three times, once in 1995, and twice in 2009.](https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/905/what-is-the-highest-number-of-humans-in-space-at-the-same-time-and-what-vessels) This question asks: When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously? This question resolves as the date when it's first true that 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously. For the purposes of this question, a living human will be considered to be 'in space' if they achieve an altitude of [at least 100km above Earth's mean sea level](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%A1rm%C3%A1n_line), or if they are located on any astronomical objects other than Earth.
-# Forecasts: 208
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: As of 2019, [only 12 people have ever landed on the Moon.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts) All of these people did so between July 1969 and December 1972. [The United States is currently pursuing a new crewed moon landing by year end 2024.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program) Multiple private initiatives that may enable crewed landings on the Moon in the coming decade are also underway, including development of the [Blue Moon](https://www.blueorigin.com/blue-moon) and [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) vehicles. This question asks: How many people will have landed on the Moon before 1 January 2030? This question asks how many individual humans will have ever landed, and survived the landing, on the Moon before January 1 2030. Multiple visits made by the same human will not count more than once towards this question.
-# Forecasts: 220
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3144/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports information about many things in the U.S. One is the civilian labor force participation [rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm), 16 and older. Here’s a [longer-term chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART) . Note how this differs from the participation rate of people [16 to 54](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01300060), which is far higher (this excludes most retired people, and also some disabled people since many disabilities are strongly correlated with age). This question will be focusing on the broader 16+ metric. What will the BLS report as the U.S. civilian labor force participation rate (total including all ethnicities, 16 and older) for October of 2025?
-# Forecasts: 80
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2035?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3150/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2035/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 78%
-Description: Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II. Since then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come. This question resolves positive if no nuclear weapon is detonated before Jan 1, 2035, outside of controlled tests. Negative resolution could be triggered by: --- Deliberate nuclear attack. --- Accidental nuclear attack (launched by accident or on the basis of erroneous information.) --- Accidental detonation of a weapon. --- Nuclear terrorism. For these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusi...
-# Forecasts: 178
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3153/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-greater-than-20-per-kg/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6039332/#b1-ajas-31-7-1007) . The beef cow inventory fluctuates considerably from year to year, and can be influenced by market conditions and environmental factors, such as weather and rainfall (ibid.). In the United States, about 320 million hectares are used for livestock grazing, which is equivalent to 41% of the total land area of the continental USA [(USDA, 2017)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/major-land-uses.aspx) . Commercial cattle slaughter during 2018 totaled 33.0 million head, up 3 percent from 2017. Steers comprised 51.2 percent of the total federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 28.2 percent, dairy cows 9.7 percent, other cows 9.3 percent, and bulls 1.7 percent [(USDA, 2019)](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/r207tp32d/8336h934w/hq37...
-# Forecasts: 125
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: If DNA alterations continue to require FDA approval by default, how many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be determined as safe to eat, by the end of July 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3155/if-dna-alterations-continue-to-require-fda-approval-by-default-how-many-intentionally-genomic-dna-altered-animals-will-be-determined-as-safe-to-eat-by-the-end-of-july-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Genetic modification of farmed animals to increase the efficiency of food production, increase animal health and welfare, and reduce the environmental footprint, has been a goal for many decades [(Tait-Burkard et al., 2018)](https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-018-1583-1) . This has been pursued by way of engineering and cloning farm animals to optimise for muscle growth, muscle size, feed conversion efficiency, disease resistance. In addition to economic impacts, this could have various implications for animal welfare. Since a larger, more disease resistant animal produces more meat, fewer livestock is needed to produce a given output. Gene editing also makes possible tweaks that directly improve animal welfare: [alterations that produce hornless cows](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560) could spare cows from having to be dehorned, whilst [editing to produce pigs that lack testicular development](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/jo...
-# Forecasts: 63
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: If there is a no-deal Brexit, what will be the average yearly % GDP growth of the UK in the subsequent five years?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3156/if-there-is-a-no-deal-brexit-what-will-be-the-average-yearly--gdp-growth-of-the-uk-in-the-subsequent-five-years/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: A [no-deal Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No-deal_Brexit) is one in which the United Kingdom leaves the European Union without a withdrawal agreement. Such a departure from the EU could disrupt trade between the UK and the EU, with the UK trading under WTO rules and paying greater tariffs, rather than a more favorable deal negotiated with the EU. If there is a no-deal Brexit, what will the average yearly percentage growth in real GDP of the UK be over the five-year period following Brexit? If Article 50 is revoked (cancelling Brexit), or if the UK leaves the EU with a negotiated deal, this question resolves ambiguously. Average here is the arithmetic mean.
-# Forecasts: 33
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 67%
-Description: As of question writing, all known life is carbon-based, in the sense that it needs to contain carbon atoms to survive. But life could take many forms: ---Wikipedia has a handy list of [hypothetical types of biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry), notably [silicon biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry#Silicon_biochemistry) . ---Life could be based on non-organic chemistry (e.g. [inorganic chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inorganic_chemistry), or [nuclear chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_chemistry) in the degenerate crust on the surface of a neutron star*). ---Life could also not be chemistry based at all. It could be electrical (e.g. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)) or mechanical (e.g. [clockwork](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steampunk)). ---Life could operate on vastly different time / space scales from us (e.g. a cloud of interstellar stuff somehow consisten...
-# Forecasts: 125
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3159/will-wework-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-1-january-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 65%
-Description: WeWork (officially "The We Company") is an American commercial real estate company that provides shared workspaces for technology startups, and services for other enterprises. Founded in 2010, it is headquartered in New York City. [As of 2018, WeWork manages 46.63 million square feet of commercial real estate.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-surpasses-jpmorgan-as-biggest-occupier-of-manhattan-office-space-1537268401) [In 2019, WeWork attempted to go public in an IPO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WeWork#2019), seeking a [valuation as high as $47 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo?r=US&IR=T) However, [concerns about corporate governance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-corporate-governance-nightmare-204330915.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIrC3q_C9YN2lZ0eRlApJAfGJnNEtpzzX2iJy7AodPkGkJY6O1FFMOhHk30lBFqBx2vfPE_rSu4VEDsDgjx8kv2bSDcHiPCLBkWjb0lr60rvFU5Knzj8nQWEyoqznhMfmlDWDfonPEi_NRs...
-# Forecasts: 381
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3191/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports information about many things in the U.S. One is the civilian labor force participation [rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm), 16 and older. Here’s a [longer-term chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART) . Note how this differs from the participation rate of people [16 to 54](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01300060), which is far higher (this excludes most retired people, and also some disabled people since many disabilities are strongly correlated with age). This question will be focusing on the broader 16+ metric. What will the BLS report as the U.S. civilian labor force participation rate (total including all ethnicities, 16 and older) for October of 2030?
-# Forecasts: 76
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale in the United States?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3192/when-will-the-milk-of-cows-whose-dna-is-intentionally-altered-to-be-hornless-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Horns of cows are removed because they can pose a risk to livestock handlers, other animals and to the bearers of the horns themselves (horns are sometimes caught in fences or prevent feeding). In the United States, an estimated 80% of all dairy calves (4.8 million per year) and 25% (8.75 million animals) of beef cattle are dehorned every year [(Carlson et al., 2016)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560#ref1) . Dehorning of adult cattle is associated with increased risks of sinusitis, bleeding, prolonged wound healing, and infection [(American Veterinary Medical Association, 2014)](https://www.avma.org/KB/Resources/LiteratureReviews/Documents/dehorning_cattle_bgnd.pdf) . There is evidence that dehorning is painful for the animal: physiologic, neuroendocrine, and behavioral changes indicative of pain and distress are observed following dehorning (ibid.). Fortunately, gene editing technologies can be used to create hornless cows. In 2016 Alison van Eenennaam and her research team at...
-# Forecasts: 82
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: If DNA alterations continue to require approval by default, when will the FDA find at least ten genetically edited animals as safe to eat?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3201/if-dna-alterations-continue-to-require-approval-by-default-when-will-the-fda-find-at-least-ten-genetically-edited-animals-as-safe-to-eat/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Genetic modification of farmed animals to increase the efficiency of food production, increase animal health and welfare, and reduce the environmental footprint, has been a goal for many decades [(Tait-Burkard et al., 2018)](https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-018-1583-1) . This has been pursued by way of engineering and cloning farm animals to optimise for muscle growth, muscle size, feed conversion efficiency and disease resistance. In addition to economic impacts, this could have various implications for animal welfare. Since a larger, more disease resistant animal produces more meat, fewer livestock is needed to produce a given output. Gene editing also makes possible tweaks that directly improve animal welfare: alterations that produce [hornless cows](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560) could spare cows from having to be dehorned, whilst [editing to produce pigs that lack testicular development](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371...
-# Forecasts: 85
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will beef for human consumption, from cattle genetically edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3202/when-will-beef-for-human-consumption-from-cattle-genetically-edited-to-carry-a-copy-of-the-sry-gene-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In her project “Boys Only”, Alison Van Eenennaam and her research team at UC Davis aims to create a bull that will father only male offspring: either normal bull calves with XY chromosomes (males) or XX chromosomes (females) but with the male-making SRY. The presence of SRY can make a female turn out to be essentially male—with bigger muscles, a penis, and testicles (although unable to make sperm). Since beef ranchers generally prefer males to females as these have more muscle weight, adding the male-making gene SRY could improve the efficiency of beef production, thereby potentially reducing the number of cows required to produce a given weight of beef. However, [van Eenennaam's 2019 article](http://(https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y)) argues that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited food animals is "not fit for purpose" as it has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. Although the [FDA has introduced new ventures](http...
-# Forecasts: 72
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3205/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/) . It is the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf) . The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/) . The first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi...
-# Forecasts: 92
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will first land a person on Mars?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This is for fun and purposes of experimentation. Assuming that a biological human arrives, alive, on Mars, will the responsible entity be: 1-- The US government 2-- SpaceX 3-- Another government 4-- Another corporation or private organization 5-- Other (somehow) Although Metaculus does not yet have multi-ple choices, we do have multi-modes (up to 5), so just dial in the relative probabilities you want peaked around the above 5 choices. Granted, you'll have to eyeball the "weight" sliders until we add a better numerical readout. Resolution will be determined by the organization for whom the person who makes the go/no go decision on setting the spacecraft down on Mars's surface, e.g. someone at NASA (or above NASA in the US government), someone at SpaceX (Musk or a successor), etc. This will remain true even if it is nominally a joint mission. Option 5 is for being taxied there by aliens, an individual building a wormhole in the basement, etc., NOT for ambiguity between 1-4, which w...
-# Forecasts: 225
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 7th Assessment Report?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3233/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-7th-assessment-report/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/) . It is the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf) . The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/) . The first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi...
-# Forecasts: 76
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3238/will-turkey-be-a-nato-member-continuously-until-1-january-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 80%
-Description: The [North Atlantic Treaty Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance between 29 North American and European countries. The organization implements the [North Atlantic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty) that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party. [In 1952, Turkey joined NATO.](https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/greece_and_turkey_join_nato_london_22_october_1951-en-c193a825-2f1c-4e12-b26d-d35fabc6559f.html) In recent years, Turkey's leader [Recep Tayyip Erdoğan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan) has been widely [criticised as an authoritarian.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#Authoritarianism) Further, Turkey's [military incursions into Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_offensive_into_north-eastern_Syria) have ca...
-# Forecasts: 177
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will a clean meat flavoring product be approved for human consumption?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3239/when-will-a-clean-meat-flavoring-product-be-approved-for-human-consumption/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The first commercial product we might see from the growth of animal cells is not a piece of cultivated meat to eat, but rather meat flavoring. This would be something like Impossible's 'heme' additive, but built from cultivated meat. It seems extremely likely that FDA or USDA approval is necessary before cultivated meat flavoring would be added to food for sale in the US, so we'll ask: When will a cultivated meat flavoring product be approved for human consumption? Question resolves when an announcement is made by the FDA, USDA, an industry group, a credible statement by a company, or other multiply-sourced credible reporting that approval has been obtained to add cultivated meat flavoring to a consumer food product. Resolves as ambiguous if a clean meat flavoring goes to market without any of the above triggers occurring. (Edited 1/6/20 to to update terminology.)
-# Forecasts: 90
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3241/will-the-iau-rework-its-definition-of-planetary-status-by-jan-1-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 25%
-Description: The [International Astronomical Union](https://www.iau.org/) defines a planet [1] as a celestial body that 1--is in orbit around the Sun, 2--is massive enough per material strength to be an ellipsoid (in hydrostatic equilibrium) and, 3--has "cleared the neighborhood" around its orbit. A debate has emerged in the planetary sciences over whether the community should instead embrace a purely geophysical definition of a planet (a substellar body in hydrostatic equilibrium), stated in more detail here: [2]. This point of view has been gaining some traction, e.g. in Metzger et al. 2018 [3]. The chief concerns with the IAU's definition are that it excludes exoplanets (they do not orbit the sun), small bodies in hydrostatic equilibrium (e.g. Pluto, Ceres, Titan, Quaoar), and that "clearing the neighborhood" is an imprecise definition that has many caveats (e.g. coorbital bodies/quasi-satellites). There have been attempts to rigorously define orbital clearing (e.g. Margot 2015 [4]), but they...
-# Forecasts: 66
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Robert Caro's fifth and final volume of his Lyndon Johnson biography be published during his lifetime?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3244/will-robert-caros-fifth-and-final-volume-of-his-lyndon-johnson-biography-be-published-during-his-lifetime/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 53%
-Description: American journalist and author [Robert A. Caro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Caro) (born October 30, 1935) has for the last decades been working on The Years of Lyndon Johnson, a multi-volume biography of the former US President. The work is planned to consist of five volumes, the first four of which were published in 1982, 1990, 2002, 2012, respectively. When will the fifth volume be published? Here's how [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Years_of_Lyndon_Johnson#Planned_book_five) summarizes the publication estimates given at various points since 2011: In November 2011, Caro estimated that the fifth and final volume would require another two to three years to write. In March 2013, he affirmed a commitment to completing the series with a fifth volume. As of April 2014, he was continuing to research the book. In a televised interview with C-SPAN in May 2017, Caro confirmed over 400 typed pages as being complete, covering the period 1964–65; and that once he completes...
-# Forecasts: 91
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3245/what-will-be-the-us-average-weekly-hours-of-all-employees-total-non-farm-private-in-october-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The Bureau of Labor Statistics [publishes](https://www.bls.gov/ces/) [data](https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section3b) on the average hours worked of the non-farm private sector in the U.S. In this question we will be using the Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private ([AWHAETP](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AWHAETP)). Some metric-specific characteristics: Average weekly hours relate to the average hours per worker for which pay was received and is different from standard or scheduled hours. Factors such as unpaid absenteeism, labor turnover, part-time work, and stoppages cause average weekly hours to be lower than scheduled hours of work for an establishment. For historical context on hours going back to 1950, [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AVHWPEUSA065NRUG) is a related metric (but that is calculated differently using annual hours instead). Resolution will be the BLS reported AWHAETP figure for October 2025. This question is complementary with a...
-# Forecasts: 128
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced annually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3246/in-what-year-will-the-total-number-of-hen-eggs-produced-annually-in-the-us-be-100-billion-or-less/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Egg production during the year [ending November 30, 2018 totalled 109 billion eggs](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/m326m852c/dz010x51j/ckegan19.pdf), up 2 percent from 2017. In 2013, 95.2 billion eggs were produced in the United States, [according to the USDA](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/s7526f739/g445cg75q/ChickEgg-02-27-2014.pdf) . Yearly figures for total egg production can be found on the [USDA webpage](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en#release-items) . In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced anually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less? Resolution This resolves as the first year ending November 30th in which the total egg production year ending is 100 billion or less. Numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place (e.g. 100.049 qualifies as 100.0). Resolution will be based on the data in USDA's [Chickens and Eggs Annual Summary](https://usda.librar...
-# Forecasts: 90
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many billions of hen eggs will be produced in the U.S. in the year ending in November 2023?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3247/how-many-billions-of-hen-eggs-will-be-produced-in-the-us-in-the-year-ending-in-november-2023/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Egg production during the year [ending November 30, 2018 totalled 109 billion eggs](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/m326m852c/dz010x51j/ckegan19.pdf), up 2 percent from 2017. In 2013, 95.2 billion eggs were produced in the United States, [according to the USDA](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/s7526f739/g445cg75q/ChickEgg-02-27-2014.pdf) . Yearly figures for total egg production can be found on the [USDA webpage](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en#release-items) . How many billions of hen eggs will be produced in the U.S. in the year ending in November 2023? Resolution This resolves as the number of hen eggs produced in the year ending November 30th, 2023. Numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place (e.g. 95.049 qualifies as 95.0). Resolution will be based on the data in USDA's [Chickens and Eggs Annual Summary](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53j...
-# Forecasts: 146
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3248/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2022-2024-period/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The United States has the largest broiler chicken industry in the world with about 17 percent of production exported to other countries in 2018 [(National Chicken Council, 2019)](https://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/about-the-industry/statistics/broiler-chicken-industry-key-facts/) . Americans consume more chicken than anyone else in the world – more than 93.5 pounds per capita in 2018 – the number one protein consumed in the United States (ibid.). The most recent Census of Agriculture reported 233,770 poultry farms in the United States in 2012 [(USDA, 2015)](https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/nass-poultry-stats-factsheet.pdf) . The number of broiler-type chicks that hatched totalled 9.71 billion in 2018, 9.62 billion in 2017 [(USDA, 2019)](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en) . This would resolve the question for the 2016-2018 period as 9.51 billion. How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch per year, on average, over t...
-# Forecasts: 121
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon, if the feat is achieved by the end of 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3251/will-israel-be-the-fourth-country-to-soft-land-on-the-moon-if-the-feat-is-achieved-by-the-end-of-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 30%
-Description: Even though [Beresheet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beresheet) and [Chandrayaan-2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-2) both crashed into the moon in 2019, Israel and India continue in their attempts to soft-land on the moon. Israel's next attempt, [Beresheet 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beresheet_2), is set for a [landing in 2022](https://www.space.com/israel-beresheet-moon-lander-try-again.html) as of October 2019. On the other hand, the [Indian Space Research Organisation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Space_Research_Organisation) (ISRO) may work with Japan's [JAXA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JAXA) in the [Chandrayaan-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-3) mission, with a suggested launch date of 2024. So far, only the US, Russia, and China have landed spacecraft intact on the moon. Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if a new country does so before December 31, 2025? For the purposes of this question, the country...
-# Forecasts: 125
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3252/will-the-brexit-party-win-any-seats-at-the-next-uk-general-election/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 20%
-Description: The Brexit Party is a Eurosceptic political party in the UK currently led by Nigel Farage. As the name suggests they are generally considered a single-issue party advocating for a swift Brexit on WTO terms (AKA a 'no-deal' Brexit). The party is, at the time of writing, less than one year old (although can be thought of as the spiritual successor to the UK Independence Party, of which Farage was previously the figurehead). It won the most votes in the UK at the recent European elections - but can that success transfer into a general election where UKIP only ever won one seat? Can the party survive in a post-Brexit political landscape (if such a thing ever comes to pass)? Or will Farage himself finally win a seat at the eighth time of asking? Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election? This question resolves positively if the Brexit Party wins one or more seats at the next UK General Election, as reported by the BBC and negatively otherwise. By-elections and defe...
-# Forecasts: 125
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 sites?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3271/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-70-sites/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31. When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com) ? This question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 70.
-# Forecasts: 177
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, [defeated professional players 10-1](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii) . This was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent. The Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a "max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have [recently announced](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on [Battle.net](http://Battle.net) 's European server. Very impressive, but when will its abilities exceed those of the best humans? When will an AI defeat one of the world's top ten pla...
-# Forecasts: 144
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3275/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-130-sites/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, Metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31. When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com) ? This question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [Metaculus.com](http://Metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 130.
-# Forecasts: 91
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3277/what-will-be-the-average-overall-global-health-security-index-score-for-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The Global Health Security (GHS) Index is ["the first comprehensive assessment and benchmarking of health security and related capabilities across the 195 countries that make up the States Parties to the International Health Regulations."](https://www.ghsindex.org/about/) . It assesses countries on their capability to prevent and mitigate epidemics and pandemics based on 140 questions organized across 6 categories, 34 indicators, and 85 subindicators. It uses scores to these questions to create index scores for countries and also an overall GHS Index score for the world. The GHS is a joint project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, and The Economist Intelligence Unit. It was first published in 2019. This question asks: What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030? In 2019, the average overall GHS Index score was [40.2 out of a possible score of 100](https://www.ghsindex.org/report-model/) . This question will ...
-# Forecasts: 28
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3289/how-many-gene-edited-babies-will-have-been-born-worldwide-by-the-end-of-2029/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). The first gene-edited babies— [Lulu and Nana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy) —were reportedly born in October 2018. This question asks: How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029? Question resolves according to birth counts given in the first authoritative report (so judged by the admins) to cover the entire 2029 calendar year, as well as all years preceding it.
-# Forecasts: 119
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3290/what-fraction-of-babies-born-in-the-us-in-2029-will-have-been-conceived-in-vitro/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In vitro fertilization (IVF) is a process of fertilization where an egg is combined with sperm outside the human body ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_vitro_fertilisation)). According to the [2015 Assisted Reproductive Technology report](https://www.cdc.gov/art/pdf/2015-report/ART-2015-National-Summary-Report.pdf) (the latest version of the report currently available), 72,913 IVF babies were born in the US in 2015, out of [a total of 3.98m](https://www.statista.com/statistics/195908/number-of-births-in-the-united-states-since-1990/) . IVF babies thus accounted for 1.83% of all babies born that year in the United States. This question asks: What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro? Question resolves according to figures given in the 2029 edition of the Assisted Reproductive Technology report. If this report is not issued, the resolution will be determined by figures from the earliest authoritative report (so judged by the admins) to c...
-# Forecasts: 74
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2028 to 2030 period?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3324/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2028-to-2030-period/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The United States has the largest broiler chicken industry in the world with about 17 percent of production exported to other countries in 2018 [(National Chicken Council, 2019)](https://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/about-the-industry/statistics/broiler-chicken-industry-key-facts/) . Americans consume more chicken than anyone else in the world – more than 93.5 pounds per capita in 2018 – the number one protein consumed in the United States (ibid.). The most recent Census of Agriculture reported 233,770 poultry farms in the United States in 2012 [(USDA, 2015)](https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/nass-poultry-stats-factsheet.pdf) . The number of broiler-type chicks that hatched totalled 9.71 billion in 2018, 9.62 billion in 2017 [(USDA, 2019)](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en) . This would resolve the question for the 2016-2018 period as 9.51 billion. How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch per year, on average, over t...
-# Forecasts: 61
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3325/how-many-billions-of-poultry-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030-according-to-fao-estimates/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: According to estimates by [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2017)](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL), an estimated 70.95 billion poultry were slaughtered in 2017. The term poultry is taken to mean domesticated avian species that can be raised for eggs, meat and/or feathers [(FAO, 2019)](http://www.fao.org/poultry-production-products/production/poultry-species/en/) . How many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates? Resolution This question will resolve based [FAO estimates](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/?#data/QA/visualize) of the number total poultry produced/slaughtered in the calendar year 2030. The relevant data is generated by the following query: Regions: World + (Total), Items Aggregated: Meat, Poultry + (Total), Elements: "Producing Animals/Slaughtered" Forecasts released before December 1st of 2030 do not qualify as estimates.
-# Forecasts: 89
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will most eggs produced in the USA be sexed before hatching?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Chickens are generally either bred for egg-laying performance, or an ability to fatten and grow quickly. While both males and females are fattened in broiler production, there is currently no economically worthwhile use of the male offspring of egg-laying chickens, as these cannot lay eggs. Therefore, day-old male chicks are destroyed in the layer hatchery [(Krautwald-Junghanns et al., 2017)](https://academic.oup.com/ps/article/97/3/749/4780252) . Approximately 370 million chicks in North America are culled annually [(Gali et al. 2017a)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00216-016-0116-6) . As the red blood cells of birds possess a nucleus, they also carry the genetic sex information. Using spectroscopic techniques, the sex of an egg can be determined three days after it has been fertilised [(Galli et al, 2017b)](https://www.degruyter.com/downloadpdf/j/cdbme.2017.3.issue-2/cdbme-2017-0027/cdbme-2017-0027.pdf) . In egg sexing of a chick’s sex while still in the egg is might red...
-# Forecasts: 90
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: If Sanders becomes president in 2020, how many unsheltered homeless people will there be in the US at the end of his term?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3328/if-sanders-becomes-president-in-2020-how-many-unsheltered-homeless-people-will-there-be-in-the-us-at-the-end-of-his-term/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: One of the issues that Bernie Sanders is running on is [Housing for All](https://berniesanders.com/issues/housing-all/), a collection of policies intended to increase the availability of affordable housing. Of note for this question are his policies listed under the "end homelessness in America" heading: --- Prioritize 25,000 National Affordable Housing Trust Fund units in the first year to house the homeless. --- Double McKinney-Vento homelessness assistance grants to more than $26 billion over the next five years to build permanent supportive housing. --- Provide $500 million in funding to states and localities to provide outreach to the homeless to help connect them to case management and social services to ensure nobody is left behind. I am curious about whether these policies will be enacted, and to what extent they will work, so I ask: If Bernie Sanders becomes president in 2020, how many unsheltered homeless people will there be in the US on a single night in 2024? Judgement ...
-# Forecasts: 97
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-emulated-before-2200/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 52%
-Description: Developing resuscitated technology is perhaps the most integral part of making cryonics viable, but its feasability is highly debated and subject to speculation. To pin the probability of the development of such technology down, this question asks: Will any person that has been in cryopreservation for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before the 1st of January 2200? For the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person. Moreover, an emulated person is a human brain emulated on a computer, with th...
-# Forecasts: 67
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the first person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3331/when-will-the-first-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-uploaded/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Developing reuscitation technology is perhaps the most integral part of making cryonics viable, but its feasability is highly debated and subject to speculation. And since cryonics organisations can fail and thaw the preserved bodies, it would be better if such technology would be developed earlier rather than later. To find out when such technology will be developed, this question asks: When will the first person that has been in cryopreservation for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded, conditional on this occurring before 1. January 2200? For the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive the...
-# Forecasts: 96
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will James Bedford be revived or emulated before 2200?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3332/will-james-bedford-be-revived-or-emulated-before-2200/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 5%
-Description: [James Bedford](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Bedford) was the first person to be cryopreserved, and has been in preservation since 1967. He is currently preserved at [Alcor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcor_Life_Extension_Foundation) . His preservation was rather primitive and late: Bedford's body was frozen a few hours after his death due to natural causes related to his cancer. […] Compared to those employed by modern cryonics organizations, the use of cryoprotectants in Bedford's case was primitive. He was injected with a solution 15% dimethyl sulfoxide and 85% ringers solution, a compound once thought to be useful for long-term cryogenics […]. A longer evaluation of his state of preservation in 1991 can be found [here](https://www.alcor.org/Library/html/BedfordCondition.html) . Because he presents a minimum standard for cryopreservations, and because of his symbolic importance, this question asks: Will James Bedford be reuscitated before 2200? For the purposes of this que...
-# Forecasts: 71
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the number of people in cryopreservation preserved before 2019 fall to less than 50% of the current value?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3333/when-will-the-number-of-people-in-cryopreservation-preserved-before-2019-fall-to-less-than-50-of-the-current-value/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: As of 2019-01-01, 411 people had been cryopreserved at various organisations: ---165 at Alcor ([list](https://www.alcor.org/cases.html)) ---173 at the Cryonics Institute ([list](https://www.cryonics.org/case-reports/)) ---66 at KrioRus ([list](http://kriorus.ru/en/cryopreserved%20people)) ---7 at Oregon Cryonics ([list](http://oregoncryo.com/caseReports.html)) For a total of 411. However, it seems very unlikely that they will stay in cryopreservation indefinitely: they could be reuscitated one day (as they presumably hoped), but the cryonics organisations could also fail at preserving them (see the early cryonics organisation [The Cryonics Society of California](https://hpluspedia.org/wiki/Cryonics_organisations#Cryonics_Society_of_California)). To determine when this will happen, this question asks: When will the number of people in cryopreservation, who were preserved before 2019, fall to 50% of the current number, i.e. to 205? Resolution details: --- This question only consider...
-# Forecasts: 59
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will a major U.S. supermarket sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3335/when-will-a-major-us-supermarket-sell-no-kill-eggs-in-at-least-25-states/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Chickens are generally either bred for egg-laying performance, or an ability to fatten and grow quickly. While both males and females are fattened in broiler production, there is currently no economically worthwhile use of the male offspring of egg-laying chickens, as these cannot lay eggs. Therefore, day-old male chicks are destroyed in the layer hatchery [(Krautwald-Junghanns et al., 2017)](https://academic.oup.com/ps/article/97/3/749/4780252) . As the red blood cells of birds possess a nucleus, they also carry the genetic sex information. Using spectroscopic techniques, the sex of an egg can be determined three days after it has been fertilised [(Galli et al, 2017)](https://www.degruyter.com/downloadpdf/j/cdbme.2017.3.issue-2/cdbme-2017-0027/cdbme-2017-0027.pdf) . In egg sexing of a chick’s sex while still in the egg is might reduce the number of male chicks that are killed shortly after hatching. When will a major U.S. supermarket chain sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states? Re...
-# Forecasts: 78
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion) . Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones. There are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipe...
-# Forecasts: 186
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3338/when-will-hong-kong-stop-being-a-special-administrative-region-of-china/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: As of question writing, Hong Kong is officially a [Special administrative region of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_administrative_regions_of_China) (along with [Macau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macau)). The [Hong Kong Basic Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Basic_Law) (the de facto constitution of HK) says in [Chapter II, article 12](https://www.basiclaw.gov.hk/en/basiclawtext/chapter_2.html) : The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall be a local administrative region of the People's Republic of China, which shall enjoy a high degree of autonomy and come directly under the Central People's Government. Question: When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China? Resolution details: ---This question resolves upon publication of an official document by the Hong Kong authorities (or Chinese government if the former don't exist anymore) that declares another status for Hong Kong. ---This question does not resolve from the Special ...
-# Forecasts: 190
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: If Labour wins the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3340/if-labour-wins-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The Labour party has [announced a plan to bring free full-fiber broadband to every home and business in the UK](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50427369) by partially nationalizing BT. Labour believes that this plan will cost £20bn, though the Conservatives have criticized this, claiming that it is likely to cost £83bn over 10 years and that nationalisation will discourage private investment. The UK's mean download speed is [currently 22.37Mbps](https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/) in 2019, up from 18.57Mbps in 2018; this is in the bottom third of European broadband speeds, due to the slow rollout of full-fiber broadband. Full-fiber broadband itself can reach speeds of [up to 1 Gbps](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49253071) . If, in the 2019 election, Labour, or a coalition with Labour making up the majority of seats, forms a government, what will be mean broadband speeds in the UK in 2024? Judgement will be by Cable's [Worldwide broadband sp...
-# Forecasts: 11
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3341/if-conservatives-win-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The Conservative party plans to [invest £5bn in providing broadband to the hardest-to-reach 20% of the country](https://www.conservatives.com/sharethefacts/2019/10/gigabit-rural-broadband), as part of an ambitious plan to [provide full-fiber broadband to every household by 2025](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49881168) including places that private investment would otherwise miss. The UK's mean download speed is [currently 22.37Mbps](https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/) in 2019, up from 18.57Mbps in 2018; this is in the bottom third of European broadband speeds, due to the slow rollout of full-fiber broadband. Full-fiber broadband itself can reach speeds of [up to 1 Gbps](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49253071) . If, in the 2019 election, Conservatives, or a coalition with Conservatives making up the majority of seats, form a government, what will be mean broadband speeds in the UK in 2024? Judgement will be by Cable's [Worldwide broadband spe...
-# Forecasts: 161
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Today marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939. This question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)? The question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.
-# Forecasts: 130
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the exponent of the fastest known polynomial-time matrix multiplication algorithm in 2029?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3343/what-will-be-the-exponent-of-the-fastest-known-polynomial-time-matrix-multiplication-algorithm-in-2029/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The computational complexity class of an algorithm is a measure of how the runtime increases as the input becomes larger. Often, these are written in big-O notation, where an algorithm running in time means that there is some constant for which the runtime will never exceed for an input of length . In the case of [matrix multiplication](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matrix_multiplication), the best-known algorithm runs in polynomial time; multiplication of two square n×n matrices runs in time for some . Over time, the smallest known ω has been decreasing - faster algorithms have been discovered. Naive matrix multiplication, from directly evaluating the sum of the definition, has complexity in time. In 1969, Strassen discovered [Strassen's algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strassen%27s_algorithm), which has complexity in . By 1990, the [Coppersmith-Winograd algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coppersmith%E2%80%93Winograd_algorithm) was discovered, which has complexity in ; t...
-# Forecasts: 107
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What the percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3344/what-the-percentage-of-egg-laying-hens-will-be-cage-free-in-the-us-in-june-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [Battery cages](http://www.duhaime.org/LegalDictionary/B/BatteryCages.aspx), wire-mesh enclosures, are the predominant form of housing for laying hens worldwide [(Leenstra, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/291555344_Layer_breeding_programmes_in_changing_production_environments_a_historic_perspective) . Cage reduce aggression and cannibalism among hens, but are barren, restrict movement, or the expression of natural behaviours, and increase rates of [osteoporosis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osteoporosis) [(Meseret, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311321712_A_review_of_poultry_welfare_in_conventional_production_system) . As of March 2019, cage-free shell egg production accounted for only 18.4% (60.7 million hens) of the current table egg layer flock. By contrast, in the European Union, As of 2017, 49,6% of the total number of laying hens were not in cages [(EU, 2018)](https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/d/18f7766e-e9a9-46a4-bbec-94d4c181183f/0%20Circa%20%20egg%...
-# Forecasts: 138
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Guinea Worm be eradicated by the end of 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3351/will-guinea-worm-be-eradicated-by-the-end-of-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 55.00000000000001%
-Description: Humanity stands at the cusp of eradicating its second disease, [Dracunculiasis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dracunculiasis), or Guinea Worm Disease. In 2018, [only 28 cases](https://www.cartercenter.org/health/guinea_worm/case-totals.html) were reported in humans, worldwide. Sadly, Guinea Worm appears to have [adapted to infecting dogs](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/18/health/guinea-worms-dogs-chad.html), reinvigorating wild populations and placing formerly safe communities back at risk. Recognizing the difficulty, [the World Health Organization (WHO) has moved its eradication deadline back from 2020 to 2030](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02921-w) . Will the WHO certify Guinea Worm Eradication worldwide before the end of 2030? Note that the [WHO eradication certification](https://www.who.int/dracunculiasis/ICCDE_about/en/) requires the certified country to have three consecutive years free of any indigenous cases of the disease. Accordingly, this question will close th...
-# Forecasts: 69
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of Polio?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3353/when-will-the-who-certify-the-worldwide-eradication-of-polio/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In October 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) [announced the eradication](https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/two-out-of-three-wild-poliovirus-strains-eradicated) of type 3 [poliomyelitis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio) . This followed the eradication of type 2, which was [announced in 2015](http://polioeradication.org/news-post/global-eradication-of-wild-poliovirus-type-2-declared/) . Only type 1 remains in the wild, but the CDC, WHO, and other involved public health institutions are optimistic that [it can be eradicated soon](http://polioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/english-polio-endgame-strategy.pdf) . When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of all three serotypes of poliovirus? Resolution Types 2 and 3 have already been certified eradicated, but it's not impossible that the wild types could re-emerge naturally. (This [actually happened](https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/11-08-2016-government-of-nigeria-reports-2-wild-polio-...
-# Forecasts: 94
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3357/what-will-the-mean-of-the-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-of-the-all-500-supercomputers-in-the-top500-be-in-the-three-year-period-ending-in-november-2023/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits. The sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the [TOP500](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) experienced an an average (geometric mean) of 68.9% year-over-year growth since the first TOP500 publication in July of 1993. This growth rate amounts to a doubling time in total computational power of the top 500 supercomputers of roughly 16 months. Progress in compute seemed to have peaked in the three year period ending in 2008 at an average of 128.85% year-over-year growth. The weakest growth was in the three year period ending in 2014, at an average of only 30.45%. What will the mean of ...
-# Forecasts: 111
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3359/will-there-be-a-vegetarian-us-president-by-the-end-of-2036/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 12%
-Description: Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion) . Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones. Various notable people who [have been reported](https://en.wikipedia.org/wik...
-# Forecasts: 213
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3360/will-8-of-us-adults-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-before-2036/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 79%
-Description: Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion) . Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones. There are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipe...
-# Forecasts: 224
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3361/will-the-mean-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-in-the-top500-decline-each-3-year-period-from-2025-to-2034/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 49%
-Description: In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits. For the last three decades, the microelectronic industry has benefited enormously from the [MOSFET](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MOSFET) miniaturisation. The shrinking of transistors to dimensions below 100 nm enables hundreds of millions transistors to be placed on a single chip. However, it is well-known that the currently most commonly used semiconductor device design method that has dominated for the past two-three decades, planar [CMOS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CMOS), runs into serious issues at the microscopic scale. One of these issue arises from practical limits related to 'leak' current ...
-# Forecasts: 39
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3364/will-metaculus-or-a-licensed-derivative-be-operated-as-a-public-site-by-a-publicly-traded-company-by-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 16%
-Description: Some quite successful companies are not publicly traded, such as Cargill, Albertsons and Koch Industries, see Statista's [largest private US companies by revenue](https://www.statista.com/statistics/549091/largest-private-us-companies-by-revenue/) for further examples. However, for many companies, "going public" is a major milestone. Going public allows company founders to "cash out" and diversify their portfolios. It also can allow a company to obtain much greater funding than it might from private sources. Question: Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030? The obvious case in which this will be true is if the company owning and operating this site, [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) is a publicly traded company. Either Metaculus would go public itself or a portion of the Metaculus company would be purchased by a publicly traded company at a price that would place the company's value as at least $300 million. I inc...
-# Forecasts: 58
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will SpaceX be worth by 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. SpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit ([Falcon 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_1) in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun ([Falcon Heavy](https://en....
-# Forecasts: 373
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: By the end of 2029, will the European Union require commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3371/by-the-end-of-2029-will-the-european-union-require-commercially-farmed-fish-to-be-stunned-before-being-slaughtered/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 25%
-Description: In the European Union, an estimated 500 million to 1.7 billion farmed fish were killed for human consumption in 2015, comprising a range of species that are slaughtered in a variety of ways ([CIWF, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf)). Yet, despite the mounting evidence of fish sentience, and the substantial numbers involved in aquaculture, fish are currently excluded from much of the European Slaughter Regulation ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF)). The key principle however, that animals “shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations”, does apply to fish ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF) ; p.9). Humane slaughter methods should therefore be used, ensuring that fish are effective...
-# Forecasts: 72
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many countries will be awarded a B or better for farm animal welfare protection by to the Animal Protection Index by end of 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3373/how-many-countries-will-be-awarded-a-b-or-better-for-farm-animal-welfare-protection-by-to-the-animal-protection-index-by-end-of-2022/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: it is estimated that [60% of the biomass of mammals are livestock](https://www.pnas.org/content/115/25/6506) . The overwhelming majority of these animals are raised in factory farms, where conditions can involve “intense confinement, inhibition of natural behaviors, untreated health issues, and numerous other causes of suffering”.[ [1](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ch5fq73AFn2Q72AMQ/why-animals-matter-for-effective-altruism) ] The [World Animal Protection](https://api.worldanimalprotection.org/) is [expected to update its assessment](https://ec.europa.eu/food/sites/food/files/animals/docs/aw_platform_20190617_pres-12.pdf) of each country and considers a number of indicators which address the key issues relevant to improving animal welfare around the world. One of these issue is the welfare of farm animals. Specifically, the following three factors of welfare of farm animals: --- Protection of animals’ welfare needs during rearing, such as freedom of movement and freedom to...
-# Forecasts: 23
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the either the USA or China improve on their score on an the Animal Protection Index indicator for recognition of animal sentience, by the end 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3374/will-the-either-the-usa-or-china-improve-on-their-score-on-an-the-animal-protection-index-indicator-for-recognition-of-animal-sentience-by-the-end-2022/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 34%
-Description: [Recent work in neuroscience](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/christof-koch/consciousness-is-everywhere_b_1784047.html) suggests that consciousness may not depend on a highly developed cortex, or on any particular brain structure. In 2012, an international group of neuroscientists released " [The Cambridge Declaration on Consciousness](http://fcmconference.org/img/CambridgeDeclarationOnConsciousness.pdf)," arguing that nonhuman animals (including all mammals, birds, octopuses, and some others) possess the neurological substrates that generate consciousness, and that consciousness and intentionality are not uniquely human attributes. In the US, there is some federal legislation recognising some aspects of animal sentience in some animals. In particular, the preamble to the Humane Methods of Slaughter Act of 1958 explains that the use of humane methods in the slaughter of livestock prevents needless suffering, thereby acknowledging this capacity in non-human animals. However, the legislati...
-# Forecasts: 28
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue from edible insect product sales alone, in a single year?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3375/when-will-a-company-in-any-country-generate-50m-revenue-from-edible-insect-product-sales-alone-in-a-single-year/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Edible insects are insect species used for human consumption, e.g., whole or as an ingredient in processed food products such as burger patties, pasta, or snacks. It is estimated that insect-eating is practised regularly by at least 2 billion people worldwide [(Tao and Li, 2017)](https://bit.ly/2Y2F69z) . Many of these insects contain amounts of protein, fat, vitamins, and minerals comparable to commonly eaten livestock (ibid.). The global edible insects market [is estimated to be expanding](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html) supported by a compound annual growth rate of over 20% during the forecast period of 2019 to 2030. This is reported to be due to various reasons, such as [growing population and decreasing food resources, increasing demand for protein-rich food, the high cost of animal protein](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insec...
-# Forecasts: 84
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3380/when-will-at-least-750-companies-pledge-to-maintain-a-supply-chain-consistent-with-the-current-basic-global-animal-partnership-standards-for-broiler-chickens-by-end-of-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The [Global Animal Partnership](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/) (GAP), a nonprofit which seeks to promote the welfare of farmed animals, has an animal welfare rating program for assessing the welfare of animals on-farm, during transport and at slaughter. This basic part of GAP's standards for broiler chickens is summarized with the slogan: “no cages, no crates, no crowding”, and requires the following: Chickens are typically housed indoors and must meet a maximum stocking density of 6.0 lbs/ft2 by 1 July 2020. Producers are required to manage the environment to maintain litter, air quality and provide chickens with environmental enrichment. Environmental enrichments are materials that are provided to chickens to add complexity to their environment and encourage the expression of natural behavior (such as pecking, scratching, exploration and play behavior).[ [1](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GAP-Standard-for-Meat-Chickens-v3.1-20180403.pdf) ] As of...
-# Forecasts: 89
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will 5,000 companies worldwide pledge to remove cages from their egg supply chains?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3381/when-will-5000-companies-worldwide-pledge-to-remove-cages-from-their-egg-supply-chains/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [Battery cages](http://www.duhaime.org/LegalDictionary/B/BatteryCages.aspx), wire-mesh enclosures, are the predominant form of housing for laying hens worldwide [(Leenstra, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/291555344_Layer_breeding_programmes_in_changing_production_environments_a_historic_perspective) . Cage reduce aggression and cannibalism among hens, but are barren, restrict movement, or the expression of natural behaviours, and increase rates of [osteoporosis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osteoporosis) [(Meseret, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311321712_A_review_of_poultry_welfare_in_conventional_production_system) . In the European Union, as of 2017, 197.6 million laying hens were not in cages, amounting to 49,6% of the total number of laying hens [(EU, 2019)](https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/d/18f7766e-e9a9-46a4-bbec-94d4c181183f/0%20Circa%20%20egg%20no%20links.pdf) . [According to ChickenWatch's](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/) progress tr...
-# Forecasts: 74
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the earliest preservation date of any resuscitated cryonics patient be?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: One of the most commonly voiced criticisms against cryonics is the argument that current cryonics practices don't preserve enough information to make resuscitated possible ([Hendricks 2015](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/541311/the-false-science-of-cryonics/)). Cryonics organisations [disagree](https://alcor.org/sciencefaq.htm#brain) . To shed more light on the question, it is thus asked: What will the earliest preservation date of any cryonics patient resuscitated or emulated before 2200 be? Resolution --- This question resolves as the earliest cryopreservation date of any cryonics patient to have been resuscitated or emulated before 2200. --- This question resolves ambiguous if no cryonics patient is successfully resuscitated or emulated before December 1st, 2200. --- For the purpose of this question, we define a cryonics patient as a person who has cryopreserved for at least 1 year. --- For the purpose of this question, emulation is defined by the success criteria of [this q...
-# Forecasts: 87
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the largest number of digits of π to have been computed be, by the end of 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3384/what-will-the-largest-number-of-digits-of-%25CF%2580-to-have-been-computed-be-by-the-end-of-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The number π is a mathematical constant, defined as the ratio of a circle's circumference to its diameter. Being an irrational number, π cannot be expressed as a common fraction. In March, 2019, Emma Haruka Iwao computed π to 31,415,926,535,897 () decimal places. A chronology of computed numerical values of π can [be found on the dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronology_of_computation_of_%CF%80) . What will the largest number of digits of π to have been computed be, by the end of 2025?
-# Forecasts: 171
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will humanity maintain a continuous off-Earth presence until 2050?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3385/will-humanity-maintain-a-continuous-off-earth-presence-until-2050/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 75%
-Description: Since October 31 2000, the date [Soyuz TM-31](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soyuz_TM-31) lifted off from the Baikonur Cosmodrome carrying the members of [Expedition 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expedition_1), the first long-duration ISS crew, humanity has maintained a permanent off-Earth presence for more than 19 years. This question asks: Will humanity maintain an off-Earth presence continuously until 1 January 2050? For a positive resolution, at least one living and conscious biological human must be physically located at some point beyond 100km altitude above Earth's mean sea level at all times continuously until 1 January 2050. This could include persons aboard spacecraft and space stations, as well as persons on any astronomical object other than Earth (e.g. Moon or Mars explorers / settlers). If the number of living and conscious biological humans off-Earth drops to zero at any time before 1 January 2050, this question resolves negatively. [EM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
-# Forecasts: 224
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3386/will-a-us-consumer-be-unable-to-purchase-a-cavendish-banana-at-a-major-us-grocery-chain-on-2029-12-31/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 25%
-Description: In 1965, the [Gros Michel Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana) was declared "commercially extinct", owing to a world-wide outbreak of [Fusarium Wilt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_disease) (or Panama Disease). [Fusarium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusarium_oxysporum_f.sp._cubense), a deadly fungus, had devastated commercial plantations worldwide. In spite of its greater vulnerability to rough handling, Commercial growers replaced the Gros Michel with the [Cavendish Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cavendish_banana) because of its robustness to Fusarium infection. Then, in the early 1990's, a new strain of Fusarium (called Tropical Race 4, or TR4) [was discovered](http://www.promusa.org/Tropical+race+4+-+TR4#Origin) killing off Cavendish trees in plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia. Later studies confirmed that [Cavendish trees are highly susceptible to TR4 infection.](https://web.archive.org/web/20140407090355/http://banana-networks.org/bapnet/file...
-# Forecasts: 71
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegan diet in 2028?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3388/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegan-diet-in-2028/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Dietary veganism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of animal products (including dairy and egg products). Veganism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating might might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion) . Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones. In [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell...
-# Forecasts: 219
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What percentage of fish produced worldwide will be stunned prior to slaughter, in the first year in which credible estimates are published in the five year period starting in 2027
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3389/what-percentage-of-fish-produced-worldwide-will-be-stunned-prior-to-slaughter-in-the-first-year-in-which-credible-estimates-are-published-in-the-five-year-period-starting-in-2027/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Stunning is the process of rendering animals immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food to eliminate pain, discomfort and stress from the procedure [(FAO, 2001)](http://www.fao.org/3/x6909e/x6909e09.htm) . In the EU, [Council Regulation 1099/2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF) requires that all animals to be killed for human consumption must be stunned before they are slaughtered, meaning that they should be unconscious when they are killed to avoid suffering. There are, however, some exceptions to this rule, founded on the cultural traditions or religious rites of a number of sectors of the populations [(EU, 2019)](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/practice/slaughter_en) . Yet, while includes specific requirements for the slaughter of terrestrial species farmed for food, fish are excluded from much of the recommendations (European Union, 2009) due ...
-# Forecasts: 43
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will DNA testing vindicate Jeanne Calment as the oldest recorded person in history?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3393/will-dna-testing-vindicate-jeanne-calment-as-the-oldest-recorded-person-in-history/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 40%
-Description: To facilitate discussion, in what follows the names 'Jeanne Calment' and 'Yvonne Calment' refer to the women born in 1875 and 1898, respectively, regardless of when these women died; and the name 'Mme Calment' refers to the woman who died in 1997, regardless of when she was born. Jeanne Calment (born 21 February 1875) was, until recently, widely considered to have died on 4 August 1997 and to be, as such, the oldest verified person in history, reaching the remarkable age of 122 years and 164 days. In 2018, Russian mathematician Nikolay Zak—prompted by Valery Novoselov, an assistant professor of gerontology and geriatrics at RUDN University in Moscow—uploaded a paper to ResearchGate, subsequently [published](http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/rej.2018.2167) in the journal Rejuvenation Research, challenging this view. Zak argued that the person who died in 1997 was Jeanne Calment's daughter, Yvonne Calment (born 29 January 1898), who upon Jeanne's death in 1934 assumed her official identity for t...
-# Forecasts: 146
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/large-obesity-drop-in-oecd-country-by-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 15%
-Description: According to the OECD's [2017 Obesity Update](https://www.oecd.org/health/health-systems/Obesity-Update-2017.pdf) (PDF), [more than one in two adults and nearly one in six children are overweight or obese in the OECD area.](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) The obesity epidemic spread further in the five years leading up to 2017, although at a slower pace than before. Despite this, projections show a continuing increase of obesity in all OECD countries. A nearly tenfold variation in obesity rates can be seen across OECD countries; as of 2016, in Japan the rate of obesity was just 4.2%, while in the US it was 40%. (See [a graphic on this page](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) for full OECD obesity rates). This question asks: Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater proportional reduction in the national rate of obesity, as compared to levels reported by the OECD for 2016, for three consecutive years before 1 January 2030? Resolution should cite a data...
-# Forecasts: 170
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus) : Metaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs. And: Physicists Greg Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre and data scientist Max Wainwright launched the site in 2015. Since the beginnings of this august endeavor are so well documented, it's only fair that its future should be well predicted. Question: When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur? Resolution details: --- "the last Metaculus question resolution" is here defined as either: ------Any resolution that occurs with at least X consecutive years without any other resolutions afterwards, where X is 8 times the age of Metaculus at time of said resolution. ------The resolution of...
-# Forecasts: 95
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3409/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2020-to-2023-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 11%
-Description: A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPCC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come. Pathway RCP4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4) . Pathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) globa...
-# Forecasts: 87
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3410/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2024-to-2027-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 9%
-Description: A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPCC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come. Pathway RCP4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4) . Pathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) globa...
-# Forecasts: 85
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many millions of pigs will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3414/how-many-millions-of-pigs-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: According to estimates by [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2017)](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL), an estimated 1,485 million pigs were slaughtered in 2017. How many millions of pigs will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates? Resolution This question will resolve based [FAO estimates](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/?#data/QL) of the number total pigs produced/slaughtered in the calendar year 2030. The relevant data is generated by the following query: Regions: World + (Total), Items: Meat, pig, Elements: "Producing Animals/Slaughtered" Forecasts released before December 1st of 2030 do not qualify as estimates. Data Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1M3MpDDwTTOJMrhnPJYkAjWyk4YgirO5b0A8g-JCEZ9I/edit?usp=sharing) . Please make a copy by clicking "file" and then "make a copy" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in...
-# Forecasts: 94
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 10%
-Description: [Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin) . He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign) . Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia. It may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela) . Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. Question: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his...
-# Forecasts: 444
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will the next President of the United States be impeached?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/will-the-next-president-of-the-united-states-be-impeached/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 9%
-Description: So far, the United States has had three presidents out of [44](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) total be [impeached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_impeachments) : [Andrew Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Andrew_Johnson) in 1868, [Bill Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton) in 1998, and [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Donald_Trump), the current president, in 2019. [Richard Nixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Richard_Nixon) in 1974 resigned when it seemed likely that he would be impeached and convicted. One notable feature of this list of dates is that the last two impeachments were relatively close together relative to the span of US history. As such, it seems possible that we live in a time where presidents are more likely to be impeached. Will the US House of Representatives vote to impeach the next president of the Unite...
-# Forecasts: 213
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: In the year 2028, how many tonnes of insect protein will be used as animal feed for livestock, poultry and fish in Europe?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3421/in-the-year-2028-how-many-tonnes-of-insect-protein-will-be-used-as-animal-feed-for-livestock-poultry-and-fish-in-europe/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Today insect proteins cannot be fed to poultry as legislation passed after the mad cow disease crisis in the late 1990s prevents processed animal proteins from being fed to livestock ([IPIFF, 2018](http://ipiff.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Web-version_IPIFF_Sustainability-consult_Brochure-31-10-1.pdf)). As a result, insects cannot currently be fed to chickens or pigs. However, an exception to that legislation has been made for farmed fish and, since 2013, insects have been approved in aquaculture feed (ibid.). Since approving insect feed for fish feed, companies have begun producing insect protein: Roughly 1,000 tonnes of insect protein have been commercialised by European insect producers in total, since the authorisation of insect proteins for use in aqua feed. In the calendar year 2028, how many tonnes of insect protein will be estimated to be used as animal feed for livestock, poultry and fish in Europe? Resolution Estimates should come from credible organisations, such as the [I...
-# Forecasts: 61
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: On December 1st, 2023 how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3422/on-december-1st-2023-how-many-companies-worldwide-will-pledge-uphold-gap-standards-for-broiler-chickens-raised-for-meat/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The [Global Animal Partnership](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/) (GAP), a nonprofit which seeks to promote the welfare of farmed animals, has an animal welfare rating program for assessing the welfare of animals on-farm, during transport and at slaughter. This basic part of GAP's standards for broiler chickens is summarized with the slogan: “no cages, no crates, no crowding”, and requires the following: Chickens are typically housed indoors and must meet a maximum stocking density of 6.0 lbs/ft2 by 1 July 2020. Producers are required to manage the environment to maintain litter, air quality and provide chickens with environmental enrichment. Environmental enrichments are materials that are provided to chickens to add complexity to their environment and encourage the expression of natural behavior (such as pecking, scratching, exploration and play behavior).[ [1](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GAP-Standard-for-Meat-Chickens-v3.1-20180403.pdf) ] As of...
-# Forecasts: 122
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will 100 gigagrams of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3429/will-100-gigagrams-of-sulphur-be-injected-into-the-atmosphere-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 5%
-Description: Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al., 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf) . Solar radiation management (SRM) supposes that deliberate addition of aerosol to the stratosphere could reduce climate risks by partially offsetting the radiative forcing from accumulating greenhouse gases. The deployment stratospheric sulfate aerosols have been proposed as a method to reflect more energy away from the planet, by increasing the planetary albedo, and thereby cool the planet, ameliorating some of the effects of increasing CO2 concentrations [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131) . According to [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131), sulphate aerosols have at leas...
-# Forecasts: 73
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 56.99999999999999%
-Description: One of the biggest problems with cryptocurrencies right now is their volatility. So-called 'stablecoins' aim to solve this by maintaining a stable price, usually compared to an asset like the US Dollar. The currency Dai, created by the organisation [MakerDAO](https://makerdao.com/en/) and running on the [Ethereum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum) blockchain, is a popular stablecoin that tries to always be worth $1. Instead of being backed by a reserve of dollars, Dai can be created by anyone by locking up some ether (or other cryptocurrencies) as collateral for a loan in Dai. The ether is only released when the user pays back their loan, plus a Stability Fee. Dai holders can also earn the Dai Savings Rate which is funded by the fees. The Stability Fee and Dai Savings Rate are adjusted to keep the value of Dai at $1. Its predecessor Sai (formerly called Dai) has successfully kept a stable price throughout 2018 and (as of December 2019) still maintains it, despite volatility in t...
-# Forecasts: 105
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3433/will-an-ocean-be-fertilised-with-at-least-50-tonnes-of-iron-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 21%
-Description: Iron fertilisation is the introduction of iron to iron-poor areas of the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton production to thereby draw carbon out of the atmosphere and into the ocean. Phytoplankton converts some of the CO2 dissolved in the ocean into biomass, which is then transported into deep sea by ocean circulation and gravity; effectively resulting in the long-term sequestering of carbon [(Yoon et al., 2018)](https://www.biogeosciences.net/15/5847/2018/bg-15-5847-2018.pdf) . Researchers worldwide have conducted 13 major iron-fertilization experiments in the open ocean since 1990 [(Tollefson, 2017)](https://www.nature.com/news/iron-dumping-ocean-experiment-sparks-controversy-1.22031) . All have sought to test whether stimulating phytoplankton growth can increase the amount of carbon dioxide that the organisms pull out of the atmosphere and deposit in the deep ocean when they die. Determining how much carbon is sequestered during such experiments has proved difficult, however,...
-# Forecasts: 100
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 55.00000000000001%
-Description: [The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world. The Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001. [The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024. This question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the ...
-# Forecasts: 286
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3445/will-kim-jong-un-still-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-north-korea-on-1-january-2022/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 90%
-Description: [Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un), born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding. This question asks: Will he still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022? Resolves positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea.
-# Forecasts: 1226
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: When will two or more supermarkets sell products made of ≥20% clean fish in their physical retail stores in at least 25 U.S. states?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3447/when-will-two-or-more-supermarkets-sell-products-made-of-20-clean-fish-in-their-physical-retail-stores-in-at-least-25-us-states/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: One of the earliest produced clean meat product was a clean fish product. In 2002, researchers working on the the fabrication of surrogate muscle protein constructs as food products for Space travelers grew goldfish cells grown to resemble fish fillets [(Benjaminson et al, 2002)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12416526) . However, since then, most clean meat companies have been focussed on producing the meat of livestock and poultry (see [here for a list](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies)). There are several clean fish companies, amongst these are The US-based [Blue Nalu](https://bluenalu.com/) and [Finless Foods](https://finlessfoods.com/) . We might expect that if clean beef or clean chicken matures before clean fish, the regulatory challenges of bringing clean fish to market could be reduced. In the United States, the USDA and FDA jointly oversee the production of cell based meat products. The FDA oversees cell collection and growth while the USDA will oversee ce...
-# Forecasts: 81
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3452/how-much-forest-coverage-loss-will-occur-in-brazil-over-the-three-year-period-starting-from-2020/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Currently, according to the [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR), an initiative by the [World Resources Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Resources_Institute), 12.85 millions of hectares of tree cover was lost in Brazil in the three-year period starting from 2015. The Amazon (60% of which is located in Brazil) represents over half of the planet's remaining rainforests, and comprises the largest and most biodiverse tract of tropical rainforest in the world, with an estimated 390 billion individual trees divided into 16,000 species. The Amazon plays a crucial role in including carbon sequestration, climate and water cycle regulation, and maintenance of biodiversity.[ [1](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aacd1c) ] How much forest coverage loss, in Mha, will occur in Brazil in the three-year period starting from 2020? Resolution This question resolves as the sum of forest coverage loss in an area with >30% tree canopy in Brazil, in the years 202...
-# Forecasts: 147
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What is the largest amount of iron that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3457/what-is-the-largest-amount-of-iron-that-will-be-used-to-fertilise-an-ocean-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2026/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Iron fertilisation is the introduction of iron to iron-poor areas of the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton production to thereby draw carbon out of the atmosphere and into the ocean. Phytoplankton converts some of the CO2 dissolved in the ocean into biomass, which is then transported into deep sea by ocean circulation and gravity; effectively resulting in the long-term sequestering of carbon [(Yoon et al., 2018)](https://www.biogeosciences.net/15/5847/2018/bg-15-5847-2018.pdf) . Researchers worldwide have conducted 13 major iron-fertilization experiments in the open ocean since 1990 [(Tollefson, 2017)](https://www.nature.com/news/iron-dumping-ocean-experiment-sparks-controversy-1.22031) . All have sought to test whether stimulating phytoplankton growth can increase the amount of carbon dioxide that the organisms pull out of the atmosphere and deposit in the deep ocean when they die. Determining how much carbon is sequestered during such experiments has proved difficult, however,...
-# Forecasts: 70
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3458/will-there-be-a-culturally-significant-development-in-aging-research-by-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 70%
-Description: In 2019, at a speech at the Foresight Institute, biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey [stated](https://youtu.be/QmoYYewuw-c?t=660) : I think we are still 15-20 years away [from effective anti-aging therapies] but the anticipation of the therapy by the general public is coming soon, and it is that anticipation that is going to be the point when the shit really hits the fan. If you think about a situation in which less than five years from now [...] in a period of about a week, half of the developed world is going to shift from an expectation that they will live only slightly longer than their parents did, into an expectation that they're going to live far longer than anyone has ever lived. If half of the people in the developed world came to believe within a period of a week that effective anti-aging therapies were imminent, this would likely be a culturally significant event, perhaps among the most significant in the 2020's. This question resolves positively if any of the terms "agi...
-# Forecasts: 158
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3460/will-there-be-at-least-200-companies-developing-technologies-to-defeat-aging-by-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 88%
-Description: In a publicly available spreadsheet, accessible [here](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/), Karl Pfleger has maintained a list of for-profit companies that are confirmed to be working to slow or reverse aging in humans. His criterion for including a company is outlined [here](http://agingbiotech.info/about/what_counts_as_aging.html), and only includes those companies that aim to deliver a product that will undo or slow down molecular damage from aging. Anti-aging cosmetic companies do not count by this criterion. As of January 6th, 2020, there are 126 companies listed in the spreadsheet, but progress has been rapid in recent years. More companies were created from 2016-2018 than were created in the entire period listed before that, from 2009-2015. If growth continues at its current pace, then the number of companies will surpass 200 by 2025. However, if the number does not reach 200, this would imply that growth must have slowed down at some point. This question resolves positively if...
-# Forecasts: 129
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: At what point will at least ten technologies listed on "The Rejuvenation Roadmap" be released to the public?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3461/at-what-point-will-at-least-ten-technologies-listed-on-the-rejuvenation-roadmap-be-released-to-the-public/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The [Rejuvenation Roadmap](https://www.lifespan.io/road-maps/the-rejuvenation-roadmap/) is a curated database, which aims to compile the most promising [anti-aging] therapies and technologies in development and chart their progress in one easy to read format. As of writing, it lists 42 technologies, of which several aim to provide effective anti-aging effects. If ten of the technologies listed in the roadmap as it was on January 7th, 2020 ([as archived here](https://web.archive.org/web/20200107004948/https://www.lifespan.io/road-maps/the-rejuvenation-roadmap/)) are released, then this question resolves to the date on which the tenth technology was marked released. This question resolves ambiguously if: ---The roadmap is no longer maintained, or changes form in a way that is not compatible with this question (as judged by a Metaculus admin). ---The archive of the roadmap becomes unavailable. ---Enough of the concerned technologies are abandoned that this question cannot resolve positi...
-# Forecasts: 73
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3469/will-the-united-states-institute-a-military-draft-by-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 3%
-Description: The United States has employed military conscription during five separate conflicts in American history, most recently in the Vietnam war, ending in 1973. If the United States enters another large war, it might begin conscripting soldiers once again. This question resolves positively if any military personnel* are conscripted for the military in the United States before January 1st, 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. * "military personnel" here includes the Coast Guard. "conscription" here does not include the Individual Ready Reserve or Stop-Loss activation.
-# Forecasts: 137
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3474/when-will-queen-elizabeth-ii-cease-to-be-queen-of-the-united-kingdom/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [Queen Elizabeth II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_II), 93, is the longest-reigning British monarch in history, having been Queen since 6 February 1952. On 6 February 2017 she became the first British monarch to celebrate a Sapphire Jubilee, commemorating 65 years on the throne. At the time of writing this question, Elizabeth II has been Queen for 67 years and 337 days. She is currently considered to be the [sixth longest-reigning sovereign monarch with a verifiable reign of all time.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest-reigning_monarchs) This question asks: When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom? The question shall resolve as the date on which Elizabeth II dies, abdicates, is deposed, or on the date that the monarchy of the United Kingdom is dissolved, or if there is no longer a United Nations member state known as the United Kingdom. Note that while Elizabeth II is also the reigning monarch in a number of other states and territorie...
-# Forecasts: 306
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 77%
-Description: In economist Robin Hanson's 2001 paper [Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf), he writes A simple exogenous growth model gives conservative estimates of the economic implications of machine intelligence. [...] Without machine intelligence, world product grows at a familiar rate of 4.3% per year, doubling every 16 years, with about 40% of technological progress coming from ordinary computers. With machine intelligence, the (instantaneous) annual growth rate would be 45%, ten times higher, making world product double every 18 months! If the product shares are raised by 20%, and general technology growth is lowered to preserve the 4.4% figure, the new doubling time falls to less than 6 months. This question is conditioned on the arrival of human-level artificial intelligence, as defined by [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) . Assume that at some point, a machine is cr...
-# Forecasts: 106
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3478/how-many-patients-will-be-in-cryonic-suspension-at-the-cryonics-institute-in-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The number of cryonics patients in storage at the Cryonics Institute (CI) has been increasing steadily since it was founded in 1976. From 2009 to 2019, [the total number of patients](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/member-statistics/) increased from 95 to 177. How many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030? This question resolves to the largest number of patients in cryonic suspension at CI in 2030, cited in any report published by CI that year which gives such a number. If there is no such report (for any reason) this question resolves ambiguous. A "patient" is here taken to mean any preserved human brain (incl. neuropreservation, whole-body cryopreservation, etc.).
-# Forecasts: 90
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Since the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this "general" intelligence has remained elusive. AI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems. But there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example [this study](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1706.06906.pdf) finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to "High level machine intelligence" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, [this survey](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf) fi...
-# Forecasts: 419
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3481/will-no-crispr-edited-babies-be-born-in-the-year-2020/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 93%
-Description: Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). [CRISPR/Cas9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing) is a technique that allows for the highly specific and rapid modification of DNA in a genome. On 25 November 2018, a Chinese scientist named He Jiankui made a startling announcement: as a result of experiments conducted at his clinic, the world’s first genetically edited babies, [Lulu and Nana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy), had been born [(Regalado, 2018b)](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612458/exclusive-chinese-scientists-are-creating-crispr-babies/) . After Jiankui’s announcement, Vox asked [“Is the CRISPR baby controversy the start of a terrifying new chapter in gene editing?”](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/11/30/18119589/crispr-gene-editing-he-jiankui) and a lot of other peopl...
-# Forecasts: 306
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will EQRx get at least one drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3507/will-eqrx-get-at-least-one-drug-approved-by-the-fda-before-the-end-of-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 40%
-Description: From [this Chemical and Engineering News article](https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/EQRx-launches-developdrugs-steep-discount/98/web/2020/01) : Venture capitalist and serial entrepreneur Alexis Borisy has founded EQRx to develop equal or better versions of innovative medicines—often called me-too drugs—and sell them at a substantial discount to competing therapies. With an initial investment of $200 million from a syndicate of investors, the biotech firm plans to put 10 new, more affordable drugs on the market in the next decade. He plans to do that unsing technology (ibid.): “Today, you can do a virtual screen of a billion compounds, do on-demand synthesis of all of those, and you can do it overnight in the cloud.” Once a molecule is made, Borisy points to the potential to analyze reams of clinical data to design efficient studies that can prove a drug’s value to government groups and payers. Combined, these technological efficiencies could bring down the cost of getting a drug onto...
-# Forecasts: 47
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3508/when-will-trikafta-become-available-for-cystic-fibrosis-patients-on-the-nhs-england/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Cystic Fibrosis is a genetic disease affecting mainly the lungs and the pancreas.([1](http://(https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/what-is-cystic-fibrosis))) In 2012 an American company called Vertex Pharmaceuticals got approval from the FDA to market a drug called Ivacaftor, the first generation of "CFTR Modulators" which improves lung function in people with CF.([2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivacaftor)) It was initially priced at $300,000 a year making it one of the most expensive drugs on the market. This was followed by Orkambi ($270,000 a year) in 2015,([3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lumacaftor/ivacaftor)) and then in October 2019 by Trikafta, a triple combination therapy which is effective in around 90% of people with CF. Trikafta is marketed at around $300,000. However, the initial evidence is that it is much more effective at improving lung function in CF patients than previous therapies.([4](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-breakthrough...
-# Forecasts: 65
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: A [human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering, and scientific proposals since the 20th century. In the early 21st century, numerous US, European, and Asian organizations were developing proposals for human missions to Mars, and [dozens of Mars mission plans have been devised](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans) over the decades since the dawn of spaceflight. This question asks: When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? This question resolves as the date on which the first crewed vehicle touches down on Mars successfully. A 'successful' landing is defined, for the purposes of this question, as one in which at least one crew member survives the landing. A 'crewed vehicle' is defined here as containing at least one conscious flesh-and-bone human.
-# Forecasts: 144
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 10%
-Description: Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II. Since then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. (Indeed, there have been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.) This question (which any sane person will hope resolves negatively) regards the probability that a nuclear war will occur by Jan 1, 2070. (Different questions address this separately, but none directly.) There is a great paucity of public and useful estimates of this probability. See for example [this paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3137081) for an outline of considerations (but no bottom-line numbe...
-# Forecasts: 164
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will we be able to predict at least 10% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3518/when-will-we-be-able-to-predict-at-least-10-of-variance-in-big-five-agreeableness-based-on-genetic-information-alone/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Polygenic scores can already predict more than 10% of variance in educational attainment (see e.g. [Lee et al., 2018](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-018-0147-3)). Research suggests that personality is moderately heritable, at about 40% (see e.g. [Johnson et al., 2008](https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2008-14474-007)). However, the additive heritability might be rather low (see e.g. [Plomin et al., 1998](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9686459)). The limit of how much variance a polygenic score for a trait can predict is [given by its SNP heritability](https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC117414/technical_report_gwas.pdf) . SNP heritability estimates for personality traits are often around 10% or even less, see e.g. table 4 [here](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gbb.12439 for an overview) . Thus, it's entirely possible that we will never be able to predict more than 10% of variance in [Big Five agreeableness](https://en.wikipedia.org...
-# Forecasts: 41
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: One Million Martian Residents by 2075?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 2%
-Description: In a [tweet session on 2020-01-16](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217986505513172992), Elon Musk laid out some of his plans for [Starship](https://www.spacex.com/starship) production, and they're characteristically ambitious. One astute twitter follower noted that given the number of Starships and frequency of launches he's planning, we can infer the size of the Martian population for which he's planning: [1 million by 2050](https://twitter.com/PRANSHUAGARWA13/status/1217990854234632193) . Musk [summarily affirmed](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217990910052458497) that estimate. Like most of Musk's predictions, this timeline seems too ambitious to be realized. [Corrected to Musk Years](https://aaboyles.github.io/Essays/portfolio/ElonMuskForecastCorrectionFunction.html), a million-Martian population is more likely to exist by spring of 2074. My question is simple: Will it? More specifically, Will the population of living, biological humans residing on Mars be greater than o...
-# Forecasts: 300
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3520/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2020-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect) . Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/) . In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017. Solar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas. According to the [International Renewable Energy A...
-# Forecasts: 121
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3521/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect) . Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/) . In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017. Solar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas. According to the [International Renewable Energy A...
-# Forecasts: 120
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3522/when-will-the-doomsday-clock-reach-midnight/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The [Doomsday Clock](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/) is a symbol which represents the likelihood of a anthropogenic global catastrophe. The clock represents catastrophe as "midnight" and the Bulletin's opinion on how close the world is to such as a number of "minutes" (and [recently "seconds"](https://twitter.com/OfficialJoelF/status/1220362423007371264)) to midnight. Its original setting in 1947 was seven minutes to midnight. It has since been updated up and down according to the world events of the time. In recent years, the increments have been shrinking as the clock gets closer to midnight. The last update as of writing (in January 2020) shaved only 20 seconds from the countdown, setting the clock at 100 seconds to midnight. This question asks: When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight? This resolves to the first time at which the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announces that the Doomsday Clock has reached midnight. The question should retroactively close...
-# Forecasts: 95
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3528/will-a-geoengineering-act-of-congress-become-us-federal-law-by-the-end-of-2024/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 11%
-Description: Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al. 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf) . Geoengineering involves the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, or attempts at reflecting more energy away from the planet to counter warming [(Markusson et al., 2013)](http://geoengineering-governance-research.org/perch/resources/workingpaper5markusson-et-algeinccwikipediadataset.pdf) . Geoengineering is often presented as a complement, and sometimes alternative, to climate mitigation and adaptation. There are serious and complex governance issues which need to be resolved if geoengineering is ever to become an acceptable method for moderating climate change. It would be highly undesirable for irreversible global geoengineering to occur before appropriate governance ...
-# Forecasts: 40
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the star Betelgeuse be observed to go supernova before 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 1%
-Description: In the last few months, the star Betelgeuse has [dimmed in the sky](http://www.astronomerstelegram.org/?read=13410), prompting some media outlets to speculate that it will soon be observed to go supernova. Some astronomers, such as Phil Plait, have [responded](https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/dont-panic-betelgeuse-is-almost-certainly-not-about-to-explode) by saying that it is unlikely to explode any time soon, Even at the prodigious rates it's going through helium, it'll probably be about 100,000 years before it explodes. This question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports that the star Betelgeuse has been observed exploding in the sky before 12 AM January 1st, 2030 UTC.
-# Forecasts: 82
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many geoengineering international treaties will be listed on the World Legal Information Institute's database at the end of 2024?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3535/how-many-geoengineering-international-treaties-will-be-listed-on-the-world-legal-information-institutes-database-at-the-end-of-2024/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al. 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf) . Geoengineering involves the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, or attempts at reflecting more energy away from the planet to counter warming [(Markusson et al., 2013)](http://geoengineering-governance-research.org/perch/resources/workingpaper5markusson-et-algeinccwikipediadataset.pdf) . Geoengineering is often presented as a complement, and sometimes alternative, to climate mitigation and adaptation. There are serious and complex governance issues which need to be resolved if geoengineering is ever to become an acceptable method for moderating climate change. It would be highly undesirable for irreversible global geoengineering to occur before appropriate governance ...
-# Forecasts: 81
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/) . However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). The Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf) : The number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep g...
-# Forecasts: 126
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3581/what-will-the-global-weighted-average-levelized-cost-of-energy-of-onshore-wind-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Wind power or wind energy is the use of air flow through wind turbines to provide the mechanical power to turn electric generators. Wind power provided [11.6% of the electricity demand in the European Union](https://windeurope.org/about-wind/statistics/european/wind-in-power-2017/) in 2017. Denmark is generally the country with the highest penetration of wind power, with [43% of its consumed electricity from wind in 2016](https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2018/0111/932573-denmark-wind-farm/) . According to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the global weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of onshore wind projects commissioned in 2018 was at USD 0.056/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf) . This was 13% lower than in 2017 and 35% lower than in 2010, wh...
-# Forecasts: 105
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide, over the 2020 to 2022 period?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3582/what-will-the-average-growth-rate-be-of-total-renewable-energy-produced-worldwide-over-the-2020-to-2022-period/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: According to [OECD estimates](https://data.oecd.org/energy/renewable-energy.htm), over 1.881M of tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) of renewable energy was produced in 2016. Renewable energy production saw impressive growth over the 70's during which total renewable energy produced grew at an average rate of 2.4%. This slowed down in the 90's to around 1.46%, but has picked up recently. Over the 2014 to 2018 period, more renewable energy capacity has been installed than new fossil fuel and nuclear capacity combined [(REN 21, 2019)](http://www.ren21.net/gsr-2019/) . Of the new renewable energy capacity installed in 2018, 55 percent (about 100 GW) was solar PV; wind power had 28 percent, and hydropower 11 percent (ibid.). This suggests that the future of the world depends on solar continuing to boom. Over the 2014 to 2016 period, total renewable energy produced grew at an impressible 3.47% year-over-year, on average. What will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced wo...
-# Forecasts: 133
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Stacey Abrams be elected president in or before the 2040 election?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3588/will-stacey-abrams-be-elected-president-in-or-before-the-2040-election/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 2%
-Description: Stacey Abrams, failed 2018 Georgia gubernatorial candidate who has yet to concede that election as of January 31, 2020, thinks she will be elected president in the next 20 years. Do you agree? Source: [Stacey Abrams Thinks She’ll Be President By 2040](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/stacey-abrams-thinks-shell-be-president-by-2040/) This resolves positively if Stacey Abrams is elected president in or before 2040 and the result is not overturned prior to inauguration, whether or not she is actually inaugurated. This resolves negatively by any other outcome.
-# Forecasts: 120
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/) . However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance. In their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD. When will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour? Resolution This question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electr...
-# Forecasts: 52
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3592/ev-battery-storage-costs/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/) . However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance. In their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD. When will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour? Resolution This question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for elect...
-# Forecasts: 70
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3593/will-renewable-energy-contribute-2500-or-less-to-global-electricity-production-in-the-calendar-year-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 11%
-Description: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its fourth pathway (P4) is the worst-case scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, the only way to limit global warming to 1.5°C is by making strong use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS). According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf) : P4: A resource- and energy-intensive scenario in which economic growth and globalization lead to widespread adoption of greenhouse-gas-intensive lifestyles, including high demand for transportation fuels and livestock products. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved through technological means, making strong use of CDR through...
-# Forecasts: 100
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Iowa host another "first in the nation" Democratic caucus by the end of 2028?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3600/will-iowa-host-another-first-in-the-nation-democratic-caucus-by-the-end-of-2028/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 68%
-Description: Since the modern primary system was established in the United States in 1972, Iowa has had a special status as being the first state in the United States to cast ballots and award delegates for the Presidential campaigns - the coveted "first in the nation" status that brings much media attention (and money) to Iowa. On 3 February 2020, Iowa held US caucuses. While the Republican caucus was uneventful, the Democratic caucus lead to [an unprecedented delay in reporting results](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Iowa_Democratic_caucuses#Delay_in_final_results), leading to many pundits to declare that the Iowa caucuses would be over. Most notably, David Plouffe, who ran the campaign for Barack Obama, said ”I believe caucuses are dead" on MSNBC. Will this come true, or are the rumors of the death of this 48 year old tradition greatly exaggerated? This question will resolve positively if, at least once before the end of 2028, Iowa holds (a) a US Democratic primary election that is both (b) ...
-# Forecasts: 99
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 15%
-Description: Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. [Medicare for all](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of Medicare for all. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster. Conditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will Medicare for All be passed (in their first term)? For the purposes of this question a policy will be considered Medicare for All if it: 1a) Is widely reported in the media as "Medicare for All" or 1b) Covers the Essential Health Benefits as described in Obamacare 2) Covers all citizens of ...
-# Forecasts: 128
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3606/will-a-wealth-tax-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 10%
-Description: Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. A [Weath Tax](https://berniesanders.com/issues/tax-extreme-wealth/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of a Wealth Tax. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster. Conditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will a Wealth Tax be passed (in their first term)? For the purposes of this question a policy will be considered a Wealth Tax if it: 1) Could theoretically be applied to at least one person living in the US at the time of passage. 2) The amount paid is based on a formula related to a person's net-wort...
-# Forecasts: 130
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 90%
-Description: Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, "In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response." This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct "yes" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct "no" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct "yes" or direct "no" are not counted. The message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question. This question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen: ---The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030. ---There are an equal number of direct "Yes"s or "No"s in the replies. ---A Metaculus mode...
-# Forecasts: 74
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3616/will-a-new-amendment-to-the-us-constitution-be-ratified-by-2050/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 60%
-Description: The US Constitution has been amended [27 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amendments_to_the_United_States_Constitution) in its history, most recently in 1992. This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that before January 1st 2050 the US constitution received a 28th amendment. Otherwise it resolves negatively. This question will close and resolve 1 hour before any 28th amendment becomes law, if one does.
-# Forecasts: 281
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the US supreme court change size by 2050?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3617/will-the-us-supreme-court-change-size-by-2050/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 46%
-Description: The US supreme court currently has a fixed size of 9 members, but it [hasn't always been this way](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States#Size_of_the_court) . It takes only an act of congress to change the size of the court. The president Franklin D. Roosevelt famously [failed to increase the size of the court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judicial_Procedures_Reform_Bill_of_1937) despite his party having a supermajority in congress. This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the size of the US Supreme Court has been changed by law by January 1st 2050. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. This question closes 1 hour before any relevant law or constitutional amendment passes, or before any other legal action happens, that would induce a positive resolution.
-# Forecasts: 202
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the United States admit a new state?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3618/when-will-the-united-states-admit-a-new-state/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [According to the US constitution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admission_to_the_Union), it takes an act of congress to admit a new state into the union. The last time a state was admitted was in 1959, when Hawaii was admitted into the union. Question: When will the United States admit a new state? This question resolves positively when at least five reliable media outlets report that a new state is admitted into the United States. A "new state" is defined as a state which wasn't in the union in 2019. It resolves as "> Dec 31, 2050" if a new state is not admitted before the end of 2050.
-# Forecasts: 157
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many nations will there be in the United Nations by 2050?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3619/how-many-nations-will-there-be-in-the-united-nations-by-2050/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The number of members of the United Nations is [currently 193](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_United_Nations), with South Sudan as the newest member, being admitted in 2011. How many members of the United Nations will there be on January 1st 2050? If a nation is admitted at 12:00 am on the 1st, this counts. If the UN no longer exists, the question resolves ambiguously.
-# Forecasts: 58
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 15%
-Description: Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government. This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively.
-# Forecasts: 222
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3621/will-a-third-party-win-a-senate-election-in-the-united-states-by-2050/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 55.00000000000001%
-Description: So-called "third parties" are political parties in the United State that aren't the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. Members of [third parties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_party_(United_States)) rarely win elections in America. However, the [last third party member](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsRepresentingThirdorMinorParties.htm) who won a senate election was James L. Buckly in 1970. For the purposes of this question, "independent" is not counted as a third party, as it is not a political party, but instead an identification. This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that a member of a third party won a United States senate election by January 1st 2050. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
-# Forecasts: 86
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3622/what-will-the-harvard-admit-rate-be-for-the-undergraduate-class-of-2029/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The admit rate of elite universities has been steadily declining over the last few decades in America. Harvard is one of the most selective universities in the United States. Its class of 2023 had [an admit rate](https://college.harvard.edu/admissions/admissions-statistics) of 4.6%, compared to 9.3% for [the class of 2010](https://www.ivycoach.com/2010-ivy-league-admissions-statistics/) . Will this trend continue? The admit rate is defined as the percentage of people who apply to the undergraduate program at Harvard and are admitted. Official statistics from Harvard determine the rate, if they are released. If those statistics are not released for the class of 2029 by January 1st 2026 then this question resolves ambiguously.
-# Forecasts: 215
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the English Wikipedia have 10 million articles?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3623/when-will-the-english-wikipedia-have-10-million-articles/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The English Wikipedia [was launched](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia) in 2001 and now has approximately 6 million articles at the time of writing this question. This question resolves on the date during which the 10 millionth Wikipedia article is created, according to official internal statistics from Wikipedia, such as [this link](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics) .
-# Forecasts: 87
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the world real GDP growth rate be in 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3626/what-will-the-world-real-gdp-growth-rate-be-in-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The world real GDP growth rate for the year 2030 will be determined by [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) . The rate is in percentage points. If the World Bank does not release statistics by 2035, this question resolves ambiguously.
-# Forecasts: 113
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3629/will-the-national-popular-vote-interstate-compact-reach-majority-in-the-electoral-college-before-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 25%
-Description: The [National Popular Vote Interstate Compact](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact) is a an agreement among states to award all of their electoral votes to the candidate with the highest popular vote, conditional on enough states agreeing that the total electoral vote count would secure a majority in the electoral college. In effect, the agreement means that if enough states sign on, the popular vote will determine the outcome of presidential elections. So far [states representing 196 electoral votes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact#Adoption) have signed on, which is 73% of the way to the 270 required to obtain a majority in the Electoral College. This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that states representing at least half of Electoral College votes have signed the NPVIC before 2030.
-# Forecasts: 150
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 89%
-Description: The [federal minimum wage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage_in_the_United_States) in the United States is currently $7.25 an hour, and was most recently changed in 2009. This question resolves positively if at least three reliable media outlets report that the federal minimum wage increased from $7.25 any time before January 1st 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. This question can be resolved at any time.
-# Forecasts: 268
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3645/longbets-series-by-2030-will-commercial-passengers-routinely-fly-in-pilotless-planes/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 10%
-Description: Craig J Mundie and Eric Schmidt summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/4/) . If the Long Now Foundation declares Craig J Mundie the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Eric Schmidt the winner, this question resolves negatively.
-# Forecasts: 75
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3647/longbets-series-by-2025-will-the-scientific-evidence-of-a-large-bi-pedal-great-ape-be-sufficient-to-convince-at-least-50-of-primatologists-that-a-yetibigfoot-like-creature-exists/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 1%
-Description: Kevin Kelly and Stewart Brand summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/120/) . If Kevin Kelly is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Stewart Brand is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.
-# Forecasts: 93
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 40%
-Description: Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/) . If the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Mitchell Kapor the winner, then this question resolves negatively. Each Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below. Using its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges. Using its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges. During the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of ...
-# Forecasts: 322
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3652/how-much-wind-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf) . The overall capacity of all newly installed wind turbines installed worldwide by the end of 2018 reached a record 598.9 gigawatt, roughly 5x the amount of those installed ten years prior, according to [statistics published by the World Wind Energy Association (WWEA)](https://library.wwindea.org/global-statitistics-1980/) . According [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/wind-energy-consumption-by-region), an energy company, a total of 959.53 terawatt-hours of wind energy was consumed in 2016. How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023? Resolution This question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World...
-# Forecasts: 168
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf) . According [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-energy-consumption-by-region), a total of 333.05 terawatt-hours of solar solar photovoltaics energy was consumed in 2016. How much solar photovoltaics energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023? Resolution This question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html) . Other sources with a similar methodology may be consulted if BP's estimates are not admissible. Similarity of methodology shall be decided by an admin. One criterion for similarity is that the estimat...
-# Forecasts: 147
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 87%
-Description: In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020. Now, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/), The Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best ...
-# Forecasts: 237
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 55.00000000000001%
-Description: Currently [economists are divided](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/10/upshot/medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders-cost-estimates.html) on the question of whether single-payer saves money. Some argues that due to increased efficiency and scale, total healthcare spending would go down. Others argue that due to increased use of healthcare, total costs would go up. Assume that before 2050, the United States adopts a single-payer healthcare system, defined as a healthcare service that provides coverage to all citizens in the United States. In the five years after the system is implemented, will healthcare costs go down as a fraction of GDP, compared to the previous five years? The date of implementation is defined as the first day during which some citizens are provided care under a single-payer plan. Statistics will be obtained by averaging the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare, as reported by an official government organization of the United States, during the 5 years prior to ...
-# Forecasts: 66
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-fleet/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In 2018, electric cars constituted [0.45%](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) of all cars on US roads. There is a consistent effort from many governments to increase the usage of electric cars, up to promising to [ban all sales of non-electric cars](https://web.archive.org/web/20190531053848/https://money.cnn.com/2017/09/11/autos/countries-banning-diesel-gas-cars/index.html) by a certain date. In parallel to these efforts, both popularity of electric cars among customers and the variety of manufacturers producing electric cars is rising. Some manufacturers even promise to [move to 100% electric](http://web.archive.org/web/20200215021332/https://thedriven.io/2020/01/22/subaru-targets-100-electric-cars-by-mid-2030-but-mild-hybrids-only-headed-to-australia/) . On the other hand, by [Wikipedia data](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) only one country (Norway...
-# Forecasts: 121
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Are we on path for IPCC's 'middle-of-the-road' scenario for the deployment of renewables?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3665/are-we-on-path-for-ipccs-middle-of-the-road-scenario-for-the-deployment-of-renewables/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 71%
-Description: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its third pathway (P3) is the 'middle-of-the-road' scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, we will continue emitting greenhouse gasses (GHGs) until the end of the century, and we need to employ some carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS), to achieve a concentration of GHG consistent with the 1.5°C target. According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf) : P3: A middle-of-the-road scenario in which societal as well as technological development follows historical patterns. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved by changing the way in which energy and products are produc...
-# Forecasts: 48
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3671/will-it-turn-out-that-bloomberg-manipulated-2020-election-prediction-markets/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 1%
-Description: While having a lot of great qualities, prediction markets do have some drawbacks. For one, betting markets can be manipulated by anyone with enough resources if they do not mind losing some of them (in expectation). As a case in point, there is some evidence that in 2012 Romney's chances were artificially boosted, and some (rank) speculation (see e.g. [here](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/2/14/21137882/prediction-markets-bloomberg-sanders-president)) that Bloomberg's could be similarly benefitting. The proposition in question will be taken as: A major prediction market such as PredictIt, Betfair, or one of comparable liquidity has had 2020 Presidential election results materially changed using bets made with funds tied directly to Bloomberg or his campaign. That's not terribly precise, by design. It does not address the source of knowledge or fix many of the details. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of "self-resolving" ones. Resolution to this questio...
-# Forecasts: 159
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally, in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3678/how-much-greenhouse-gas-will-be-emitted-globally-in-the-calendar-year-2030-in-gigatonnes-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-equivalent/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: At the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. One of the key elements of the Paris agreement is global average temperature targeting: Governments agreed to reduce emissions: with a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C, since this would significantly reduce risks and the impacts of climate change. The annual [UN Environment Emissions Gap Report](https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2018) presents an assessment of current national mitigation efforts and the ambitions countries have presented in their Nationally Determined Contributions, which form the foundation of the Paris Agreement. It also identifies the trajectory of annual greenhouse gas emissions consistent with achieving the mean global average temperature levels targeted by the Paris Agreem...
-# Forecasts: 105
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 14.000000000000002%
-Description: The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/) . The proposition in question will be taken as: The the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province. That's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of ["self-resolving" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows: --- If at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community predictio...
-# Forecasts: 2393
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Before the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3682/before-the-end-of-2024-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-covid-19-more-likely-than-not-originated-from-a-laboratory/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 17%
-Description: The beginning of 2020 has seen the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus. The majority of the cases were epidemiologically linked to seafood, poultry and live wildlife market (Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market) in Jianghan District of Hubei Province. This suggests that the novel coronavirus has a possible zoonotic origin. [Some](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.08.939660v2.full.pdf) [evidence](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200211-sitrep-22-ncov.pdf) suggests the virus might have originated from bat sub-species. So far, scientists have been unable to conclusively determine the zoological origins of COVID-19. In a [recent (but undated) preprint](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WEf2GYT_eh4zErSMd9eIwo1Uo_m0PRZk/view?usp=sharing), two Chinese scientists claim that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan: In summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV ...
-# Forecasts: 431
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3683/will-an-oracle-superintelligence-be-developed-before-a-general-superintelligence/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 38%
-Description: An oracle ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_control_problem#Oracle), [Lesswrongwiki](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Oracle_AI)) is a theoretical capability-constrained artificial intelligence (AI) limited to answering questions. An oracle would plausibly be easier to safely implement than a [general AI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence), and it may help to solve the safety issues associated with general AI. Therefore, a reasonable case can be made for developing an oracle first, even if a safe general AI seems feasible. However, an oracle would have considerably less (though still large) upside than a general AI, so it may be less appealing to investors. This question will immediately resolve positively if an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest before an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest. If a generally ...
-# Forecasts: 72
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3684/when-will-a-quantum-computer-running-shors-algorithm-or-a-similar-one-be-used-to-factor-one-of-the-rsa-numbers-for-the-first-time/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [Quantum computing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_computing) has shown remarkable advancements in the past decade. In that time, quantum processors went from being almost purely theoretical devices to arguably achieving [computational supremacy](https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/23/20928294/google-quantum-supremacy-sycamore-computer-qubit-milestone) over classical computers in a limited scope. Among the most promising capabilities of any sufficiently powerful quantum computer is their ability to factor very large numbers, the difficulty of which underlies many current cryptography systems. One of the best known quantum algorithms, known as [Shor's algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shor%27s_algorithm), has the potential to run almost exponentially faster than the most efficient known classical factoring algorithm. That being said, we’re currently quite a ways away from being able to use it in practice. As of writing, the largest number factored via Shor's algorithm is stil...
-# Forecasts: 100
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Background [Intelligence quotient (IQ)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient) is a measure of relative intelligence. [Mensa International](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mensa_International) is a high-IQ society open to those scoring in the 98th percentile or higher in IQ. An IQ score of 131 (standard deviation 15) on the Mensa admission test is typically sufficient to meet the 98th percentile threshold. An [artificial intelligence (AI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence) is a machine exhibiting intelligence. The 2010s saw a number of AI milestones, such as superhuman performance in the board game Go in 2016-2017. However, the highest reported IQ score of an AI known to the author of this question [is about 47](https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1709/1709.10242.pdf), achieved in 2016 (standard deviation not clear but likely 15). Resolution This question will resolve as the date when an AI scores in the 98th percentile or higher in a Mensa admission tes...
-# Forecasts: 77
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3701/what-will-the-maximum-increase-in-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-be-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period-in-the-2020-to-2023-period/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Discussion of the human influence on global temperatures has a long history. For instance, Fourier first discussed why the Earth was warmer than expected from solely considering solar radiation reaching the planet in his [On the Temperatures of the Terrestrial Sphere and Interplanetary Space](https://geosci.uchicago.edu/~rtp1/papers/Fourier1827Trans.pdf) in 1824. Fourier ruled out geothermal effects, considered the temperature of outer space and made allusions to the heating of a greenhouse [(Fleming, 1999)](http://ocean.phys.msu.ru/courses/geo/lectures-addons/04/1999%20Fleming,%20Joseph%20Fourier,%20the%20greenhouse%20effect,%20and%20the%20quest%20for%20a%20universal%20theory%20of%20terrestrial%20temperatures.pdf) . [Tyndall (1861)](http://web.gps.caltech.edu/~vijay/Papers/Spectroscopy/tyndall-1861.pdf) suggested a solution to this conundrum by experimentally demonstrating that gases such as carbon dioxide can effectively absorb infrared radiation, i.e. the ‘greenhouse effect’. These ...
-# Forecasts: 117
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3708/what-will-the-lower-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/) . It the the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf) . The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/) . The first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/do...
-# Forecasts: 67
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 55.00000000000001%
-Description: The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/) . These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately repres...
-# Forecasts: 370
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on April the 27th?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3718/how-many-covid-2019-cases-will-be-confirmed-in-the-location-with-the-most-cases-outside-of-mainland-china-on-april-the-27th/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Unfortunately, this question had to be closed due to me accidentally setting a closed lower-bound. Please submit your predictions in the [new corrected version of this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3738/how-many-covid-2019-cases-will-be-confirmed-in-the-location-with-the-most-cases-outside-of-mainland-china-on-april-the-27th/) . Coronaviruses are a family of RNA viruses that typically cause mild respiratory disease in humans. A [novel coronavirus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_novel_coronavirus) (COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019. As of the 15th of February, 2020, the location outside of Mainland China with the largest number of confirmed COVID-2019 cases is the ["Diamond Princess" cruise ship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamond_Princess_(ship)), currently docked in the Port of Yokohama, Japan. [Johns Hopkins interactive web-based dashboard](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)...
-# Forecasts: 15
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-private-fusion-company-first-report-a-yearly-profit/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Why care Energy is a [$8.5 trillion](https://www.forbes.com/sites/walvanlierop/2019/08/21/fusion-energy-who-has-the-courage-to-take-it-to-market/#4eeac23957c7) industry. Nuclear fusion could give us cheap and abundant energy. It also doesn't emit greenhouse gases (once built), and its residue has a half-life of a few hundred years (much less than nuclear fission). It's also seems operationally safer as fusion reactor would be [incapable](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/) of generating the dangerous runaway chain reactions that lead to a meltdown. [On the other hand](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/), "fusion reactors have other serious problems that also afflict today's fission reactors, including neutron radiation damage and radioactive waste, potential tritium release, the burden on coolant resources, outsize operating costs, and increased risks of nuclear weapons proliferation." When w...
-# Forecasts: 30
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ======= Nuclear fusion would give us cheap and abundant energy. Energy is a $8.5 trillion energy industry. It also doesn't emit greenhouse gases (once built), and its residue has a half-life of a few hundred years (much less than nuclear fission). ([source](https://www.forbes.com/sites/walvanlierop/2019/08/21/fusion-energy-who-has-the-courage-to-take-it-to-market/#4eeac23957c7)) It's also safer as it seems the fusion reactor would be incapable of generating the dangerous runaway chain reactions that lead to a meltdown ([source](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/)). On the other hand, "fusion reactors have other serious problems that also afflict today's fission reactors, including neutron radiation damage and radioactive waste, potential tritium release, the burden on coolant resources, outsize operating costs, and increased risks of nuclear weapons proliferation" ([source](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-...
-# Forecasts: 43
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will space mining be profitable?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3728/when-will-space-mining-be-profitable/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: There are many resources in space that are of substantial value in terrestrial markets. For example, asteroid database [Asterank](http://www.asterank.com/) lists hundreds of asteroids with estimated values of over 100 trillion USD each, based on their composition (which typically includes metals such as nickel, iron, and cobalt, as well as other compounds such as water or hydrogen which could be sold as fuel). Other asteroids contain rare metals such as [platinum](https://physicsworld.com/a/the-asteroid-trillionaires/), although presumably mining such asteroids in quantity would flood the market with such metals and potentially reduce their value. Other sites may have resources as well; for example, the Moon contains large quantities of [Helium-3](https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Preparing_for_the_Future/Space_for_Earth/Energy/Helium-3_mining_on_the_lunar_surface), a potential nuclear fusion fuel. This being the case, it would seem that there is a substantial opportunity to mine me...
-# Forecasts: 78
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention. Get past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls. (source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-lev...
-# Forecasts: 156
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many communist states will there be in 2050?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3730/how-many-communist-states-will-there-be-in-2050/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: At present, five states explicitly claim in their constitutions to be socialist, are U.N. member states, and are administered and governed by single communist parties - the People's Republic of China, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the Republic of Cuba, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam. Simultaneously, several communist groups are engaged in ongoing armed conflicts with existing recognised states. These include the [CPP–NPA–NDF rebellion in the Philippines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_rebellion_in_the_Philippines), [various Naxalite insurgencies in India](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naxalite), the conflict [between the Peruvian government and the Communist Party of Peru](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internal_conflict_in_Peru), the conflict [between the Paraguayan government and the Paraguayan People’s Army](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurgency_in_Paraguay), as well as the [conflict between several far-left gueril...
-# Forecasts: 138
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will bitcoins thought to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by 2075-04-05?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3733/will-bitcoins-thought-to-belong-to-satoshi-nakamoto-be-spent-by-2075-04-05/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 32%
-Description: According to Satoshi's claimed birth date, it will have been 100 years since zir birth in 2075-04-05 (source: [Satoshi Nakamoto — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satoshi_Nakamoto)). We don't know for sure which Bitcoins belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, but the addresses ze owns have been estimated in [The Well Deserved Fortune of Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin creator, Visionary and Genius](https://bitslog.com/2013/04/17/the-well-deserved-fortune-of-satoshi-nakamoto/) which amount to about 1 million Bitcoins (although another group argues that only ~60-70% of those are zirs: [Satoshi’s 1 Million Bitcoin Haul Could Be Smaller Than First Thought](https://news.bitcoin.com/satoshis-1-million-bitcoin-haul-could-be-smaller-than-first-thought/)). None of those Bitcoins have changed wallets since 2010. As of 2020-02-24, they are currently worth ~10 billion USD. This question resolves positively if some credible media reports that some of those Bitcoins have been transferred. If any of the coin...
-# Forecasts: 106
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will it turn out that the Keto diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3739/will-it-turn-out-that-the-keto-diet-is-both-safe-and-has-health-benefits-for-some-identified-and-significant-population-of-people/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 52%
-Description: My favorite send-up of conflicting dietary advice is in Woody Allen's 1973 movie Sleeper, where he — a health food store owner — wakes up in the future to request wheat germ, not "steak or cream pies or hot fudge", foods known by (future) science to be healthy. In the 45+ years since then it's not gotten that much better. A case in point is the [Ketogenic diet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ketogenic_diet), characterized by a very high percentage of fat intake, small amount of protein and near-zero carbohydrates. The idea that a diet containing items like a [bacon cheeseburgers served on a bun made of egg](https://queenketo.com/ultimate-keto-low-carb-bacon-cheese-burger-chips/) would be healthy would have been pretty radical a decade ago, but many adherents of the diet find significant positive results, and there is very far from any consensus on the effects of this diet, especially in the medium or long-term. How will it turn out? I'll take the statement to be: "It is generally ackno...
-# Forecasts: 103
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be in line with the pathway to limit warming to 2.0°C by mid-century, over the 2024 to 2027 period?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3742/will-the-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-be-in-line-with-the-pathway-to-limit-warming-to-20c-by-mid-century-over-the-2024-to-2027-period/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 34%
-Description: A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPPC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come. The Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 corresponds to a high greenhouse gas emissions pathway compared to the scenario literature [(IPCC 2008)](https://www.ipcc.ch/publication/ipcc-expert-meeting-report-towards-new-scenarios-for-analysis-of-emissions-climate-change-impacts-and-response-strategies/) . The RCP8.5 is a so-called ‘baseline’ scenario that does not include any specific climate mitigation target. It combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity ...
-# Forecasts: 56
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3743/when-will-the-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-moving-average-first-exceed-13c-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Surface air temperature change is a primary measure of global climate change. The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.85°C (90% CI: [0.65 to 1.06]), over the period 1880 to 2012 [(IPCC, 2013)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf) . The effects of increased global surface temperatures, and the associated changes in climate include: ---Increases in the frequency and intensity of intense precipitation [(Min et al., 2011)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature09763), and increases in the proportion of the global land surface in extreme drought [(Burke et al., 2006)](https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JHM544.1), ---Global sea level rise [(Vermeer and Rahmstorf)](https://www.pnas.org/content/106/51/21527.short), which in turn may result in the erosion of beaches and coastal wetlands, increased flooding, and intrusion of saltwater into rivers, bays, and aquifers [(...
-# Forecasts: 56
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3749/will-the-key-to-any-pre-2020-wikileaks-insurance-file-be-publicly-available-by-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 27%
-Description: [WikiLeaks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WikiLeaks) is an organisation founded by Julian Assange that publishes news leaks and classified media provided by anonymous sources. From time to time, WikiLeaks publishes encrypted " [insurance files](https://heavy.com/news/2019/04/julian-assange-dead-mans-switch-wikileaks-insurance-files/) ". There has been much speculation about the purpose of these files. Some of these files are intended as permanent records of upcoming releases, to ensure information is preserved. According to Julian Assange: We openly distribute … encrypted backups of materials that we view are highly sensitive that we are to publish in the coming year… So that there is very little possibility that that material, even if we are completely wiped out, will be taken from the historical record… Ideally, we will never reveal the key… Because there is things, like, … redactions sometimes need to be done on this material.” However, there are also theories claiming that some of ...
-# Forecasts: 74
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3764/when-will-the-dow-jones-industrial-average-set-a-new-all-time-record-high-close-after-the-coronavirus-crash-of-february-2020/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The [Dow Jones Industrial Average](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average) (DJIA, or the Dow) is a stock market index that indicates the value of 30 large, publicly owned companies based in the United States, and how they have traded in the stock market during various periods of time. The Industrial portion of the name is largely historical, as many of the modern 30 components have little or nothing to do with traditional heavy industry. Along with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite, it is one of the most influential and scrutinized US equity indices. In late 2019, [a novel coronavirus emerged in Hubei Province, China, and quickly spread around the world](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) . By February 28 2020, [over 85,000 infections had been confirmed worldwide, along with over 2,900 related deaths.](https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/) The global spread of the virus spooked financial markets...
-# Forecasts: 766
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3768/how-many-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-1st-quarter-of-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) is an ongoing outbreak of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 29 February 2020, more than 85,000 cases have been confirmed in 60 countries, of which 8,000 were classified as serious. More than 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease. This question is a part of series of questions trying to estimate the rate of growth of the COVID-19 disease during the next year. Especially, [whether COVID-19 will go away on its own in warmer weather](https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/) ? And whether COVID-19 is likely to become reoccurring disease. This question asks how m...
-# Forecasts: 615
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention. Get past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls. (source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-lev...
-# Forecasts: 140
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will any sovereign government issue a formal apology for their treatment of farm animals by 2200?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3772/will-any-sovereign-government-issue-a-formal-apology-for-their-treatment-of-farm-animals-by-2200/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 85%
-Description: In 2007, a formal apology for slavery [H.Res. 194](https://www.congress.gov/bill/110th-congress/house-resolution/194/text) entered the United States congress and was later passed unanimously by the senate. For centuries, animal rights/welfare activists have made the comparison between slavery and animal agriculture. Writing in 1789, Jeremy Bentham [said](https://www.utilitarianism.com/jeremybentham.html) The day has been, I grieve it to say in many places it is not yet past, in which the greater part of the species, under the denomination of slaves, have been treated ... upon the same footing as ... animals are still. The day may come, when the rest of the animal creation may acquire those rights which never could have been withholden from them but by the hand of tyranny. The French have already discovered that the blackness of skin is no reason why a human being should be abandoned without redress to the caprice of a tormentor. [...]. The time will come when humanity will extend its ...
-# Forecasts: 101
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3777/will-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-be-a-mainstream-moral-issue-in-america-before-2200/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 61%
-Description: From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_animal_suffering) Wild animal suffering is the suffering experienced by nonhuman animals in nature through causes such as disease, injury, parasitism, starvation, natural disasters, and killings by other animals. Wild animal suffering has historically been discussed in the context of the philosophy of religion as an instance of the problem of evil. More recently, a number of academics have considered the suspected scope of the problem from a secular standpoint as a general moral issue, one that humans might be able to take actions toward preventing. For the purposes of this question, reducing wild animal suffering is a mainstream moral issue if ANY of the following become true before 2200. 1-- At least three reliable polls reveal that at least 30% of representative adults in the United States agree that we should reduce wild animal suffering AND the poll clarifies that reducing wild animal suffering may run counter to traditional en...
-# Forecasts: 75
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3778/will-a-democratic-nation-whose-economy-transitions-from-capitalist-to-market-socialist-sustain-adequate-economic-growth/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 44%
-Description: Assume for the purposes of this question that before 2070 and after January 1st 2020, a democratic nation transitions their economy into a market socialist system. Market socialism is defined by Wikipedia [as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_socialism), a type of economic system involving the public, cooperative or social ownership of the means of production in the framework of a market economy. Market socialism differs from non-market socialism in that the market mechanism is utilized for the allocation of capital goods and the means of production. Depending on the specific model of market socialism, profits generated by socially owned firms (i.e. net revenue not reinvested into expanding the firm) may variously be used to directly remunerate employees, accrue to society at large as the source of public finance or be distributed amongst the population in a social dividend. Market socialism is distinguished from the concept of the mixed economy because models of market socialism a...
-# Forecasts: 53
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3786/what-will-be-the-lowest-closing-value-for-the-dow-jones-industrial-average-before-it-reaches-a-new-all-time-record-high-close/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The [Dow Jones Industrial Average](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average) (DJIA, or the Dow) is a stock market index that indicates the value of 30 large, publicly owned companies based in the United States, and how they have traded in the stock market during various periods of time. The Industrial portion of the name is largely historical, as many of the modern 30 components have little or nothing to do with traditional heavy industry. Along with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite, it is one of the most influential and scrutinized US equity indices. In late 2019, [a novel coronavirus emerged in Hubei Province, China, and quickly spread around the world](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) . By February 28 2020, [over 85,000 infections had been confirmed worldwide, along with over 2,900 related deaths.](https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/) The global spread of the virus spooked financial mar...
-# Forecasts: 567
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 35%
-Description: [Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life extending medicine extends life longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by. Assume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, a therapy is developed which at least two peer reviewed published scientific articles report extends the average human expectancy at 70 years old by at least 4 years. (In America, the current [life expectancy from 70](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html) is about 15.5 years.) A "therapy" cannot be a recommendation to diet or exercise. However, a therapy can be a prescription drug taken regularly, a combination of drugs, a series of surgeries, or any other such procedure that is not currently a standard medical recommendation for 70 year olds. For the th...
-# Forecasts: 84
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: If Bernie Sanders becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3805/if-bernie-sanders-becomes-president-what-will-be-the-yearly-co2-emissions-per-capita-in-the-us-in-2024/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: A major element of the Sanders campaign is his Green New Deal proposal, a collection of policies intended to address the climate crisis. From his [campaign website](https://berniesanders.com/issues/green-new-deal/), this will entail: --- Transform our energy system to 100 percent renewable energy and create 20 million jobs needed to solve the climate crisis. --- Ensure a just transition for communities and workers, including fossil fuel workers. --- Ensure justice for frontline communities, especially under-resourced groups, communities of color, Native Americans, people with disabilities, children and the elderly. --- Save American families money with investments in weatherization, public transportation, modern infrastructure and high-speed broadband. --- Commit to reducing emissions throughout the world, including providing $200 billion to the Green Climate Fund, rejoining the Paris Agreement, and reasserting the United States’ leadership in the global fight against climate chan...
-# Forecasts: 55
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3806/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-be-the-yearly-co2-emissions-per-capita-in-the-us-in-2024/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: One of Joe Biden's campaign promises is his Plan for a Clean Energy Revolution and Environmental Justice. According to [his campaign website](https://joebiden.com/climate/), this will entail: --- Ensure the U.S. achieves a 100% clean energy economy and reaches net-zero emissions no later than 2050. --- Build a stronger, more resilient nation. --- Rally the rest of the world to meet the threat of climate change --- Stand up to the abuse of power by polluters who disproportionately harm communities of color and low-income communities. --- Fulfill our obligation to workers and communities who powered our industrial revolution and subsequent decades of economic growth. In order to predict the success of these polices, I ask: If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024, in tonnes? This question resolves ambiguously if the next US presidential election is cancelled (but not if it's just delayed until some point in 2021). Resolution...
-# Forecasts: 150
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Valve release a game before 2030 with 3 in the Title?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3812/will-valve-release-a-game-before-2030-with-3-in-the-title/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 65%
-Description: The video game company valve has multiple franchises all ending with their number 2 game and it is well known joke in the gaming community that valve will never create a game with the number 3 in the title. Franchises that already are at the number 2: "Half Life 2", "Portal 2", "Left 4 Dead 2", "Team Fortress 2" and "Dota 2". This question resolves positive if Valve releases before 2030-01-01 a game made by Valve that has "3" (or anything else that means 3) in its title. It resolves negative otherwise, including if Valve ceases operating.
-# Forecasts: 123
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [Extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life) is hypothetical life which may occur outside of Earth. Such life might range from simple prokaryotes (or comparable life forms) to beings with civilizations far more advanced than humanity. Since the mid-20th century, [active ongoing research has taken place to look for signs of extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Scientific_search) . This encompasses a search for current and historic extraterrestrial life, and a narrower search for extraterrestrial intelligent life. Depending on the category of search, methods range from the analysis of telescope and specimen data to radios used to detect and send communication signals. This question asks: When will the first discovery of evidence of extraterrestrial life take place? This question resolves as the date on which the first discovery of evidence of extraterrestrial life takes place. This can be evidence of past or present e...
-# Forecasts: 225
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 41%
-Description: [Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency) . It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of ...
-# Forecasts: 763
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 6%
-Description: [Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency) . It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of ...
-# Forecasts: 297
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the next Qatari general election be held?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3830/when-will-the-next-qatari-general-election-be-held/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Constitutionally, the [Consultative Assembly of Qatar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consultative_Assembly_of_Qatar) is one-third appointed and two-thirds elected by popular vote; however, since the constitution was adopted in 2003, no legislative election has yet occured. The [first general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Qatari_general_election) was scheduled to be held in 2013, but was postponed to 2016, and then postponed again until at least 2019. In October 2019, a [committee was established](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-qatar-politics/qatar-takes-step-toward-first-shura-council-election-qna-agency-idUSKBN1XA1CH) to organize the elections lead by the Prime Minister, though thus far no date has been announced. When will Qatar hold its first legislative election? If there are multiple days of voting, this question resolves as the date of the first day of voting.
-# Forecasts: 51
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will North Korea's merchandise trade as a % of GDP be in 2045 per the most recent World Bank data?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3833/what-will-north-koreas-merchandise-trade-as-a--of-gdp-be-in-2045-per-the-most-recent-world-bank-data/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Every year, the World Bank releases [statistics on merchandise trade as a percentage of GDP](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TG.VAL.TOTL.GD.ZS?most_recent_value_desc=false) . Merchandise trade as a share of GDP is the sum of merchandise exports and imports divided by the value of GDP, all in current U.S. dollars. South Korean president Ban Ki-Moon believes that the DPRK "wants to join international financial institutions like the IMF and the World Bank". There is some speculation that the DPRK's leadership is opting for a [Vietnamese-style Doi Moi policy](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/13/north-korea-may-choose-to-follow-vietnams-economic-model.html) and that their diplomatic overtures to the U.S have the end goal of lifting all sanctions. The question asks: What will North Korea's merchandise trade as a percentage of GDP be in 2045 according to the most recently released World Bank statistics? Because the World Bank has a delay between collecting and publishing data, this question...
-# Forecasts: 50
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 12%
-Description: Despite our best efforts, Earth is still the only known planet in the universe to harbor any kind of life. Though plenty of our attention in this hunt has been focused on studying potentially habitable exoplanets, this question is concerned with the likelihood of finding [extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Planetary_habitability_in_the_Solar_System) in our own cosmic backyard. Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050? Resolution details: --- To resolve positive, a scientific consensus must be reached that life exists or has existed anywhere in our Solar System besides Earth, as judged by Metaculus admins. Resolves negative if there is no sufficiently strong evidence for such by 2050. --- The life in question can be related to Earth life, i.e. sharing a common origin with us, but must not have been placed there by humans. For example, if we find Europan life that turns...
-# Forecasts: 127
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3840/when-will-nintendo-release-a-console-capable-of-4k-output/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: For the past 2 console generations (since the Wii in 2006), Nintendo has lagged behind competitors when it comes to the raw computational performance of their consoles and, more specifically, their output resolution (see [wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighth_generation_of_video_game_consoles#Comparison) for a comparison). Given that 4K output is quickly replacing 1080p HD as the standard resolution across a majority of devices, if Nintendo's next console does not support it, it may be seen by many consumers as a mark against the console. This question resolves on the date an official Nintendo console capable of outputting video at at least 4K* resolution is released for general public consumption. Patents, announcements, and review units do not count. *4K in this case means at least 3840 x 2160 pixels.
-# Forecasts: 67
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will a reliable poll of physicists reveal that a majority of those polled accept the many-worlds interpretation by 2050?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3842/will-a-reliable-poll-of-physicists-reveal-that-a-majority-of-those-polled-accept-the-many-worlds-interpretation-by-2050/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 30%
-Description: The [many-worlds interpretation](https://www.hedweb.com/manworld.htm#what) is a theory for explaining our observations from quantum experiments. It posits that reality consists entirely of a [universal wavefunction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_wavefunction) that deterministically obeys the [Schrodinger equation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schr%C3%B6dinger_equation) (or some other wave equation). The apparent probabilistic nature of quantum experiments is normally explained by appealing to a non-rigorous concept of macroscopic worlds where each possible result of a quantum experiment happens in one of these worlds. However, "worlds" are merely convenient abstractions, and are not fundamental to the theory's main statement. The other names of the many-worlds interpretation include "the relative state formulation", "the Everett interpretation", and "the theory of the universal wavefunction." This question resolves positively if by 1/1/2050 a poll of professional physicists...
-# Forecasts: 105
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the USD still reign supreme by 2050?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3858/will-the-usd-still-reign-supreme-by-2050/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 39%
-Description: The IMF regularly publishes information on the composition of official global foreign exchange reserves in the aggregated Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves ([COFER](http://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4)). As of Q3 2019, the U.S dollar comprises 61.8% of the total ([source](http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=41175)). Several contributing factors are thought to contribute to this state of affairs, including [the stability, size, and liquidity of United States Treasury assets](https://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16064067&source=hptextfeature), the tying of other currencies to the U.S dollar as part of the Bretton Woods Agreement, and the strength of the U.S economy. At present, the U.S dollar is considered to be the world's dominant reserve currency. This is considered to [diminish the impact of higher U.S trade deficits](https://qz.com/1266044/why-does-the-us-run-a-trade-deficit-to-maintain-the-dollars-privile...
-# Forecasts: 127
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: During the Great Recession, several companies went bankrupt. These included General Motors, CIT Group and Lehman Brothers, many of which were bailed out, restructured, or acquired. The question asks: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years? For the purposes of this question, [the 2019 Fortune 500 list](https://fortune.com/fortune500/2019/search/) will be used. The next four years will be defined as the interval between 00:00 UTC 15 March 2020 and 00:00 UTC 15 March 2024.
-# Forecasts: 198
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will a currently unknown social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3866/when-will-a-currently-unknown-social-media-app-reach-one-billion-downloads-worldwide/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [Hundreds of social media apps are launched every year](https://www.crunchbase.com/hub/social-media-startups), with most failing to gain traction. Meanwhile, [social media use is booming in the developing world](https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2018/06/19/social-media-use-continues-to-rise-in-developing-countries-but-plateaus-across-developed-ones) . Occasionally, one of these platforms - for instance, TikTok - [will encounter exponential growth, outperforming its rivals by a significant margin](https://www.businessinsider.com.au/tiktok-hits-15-billion-downloads-outperforming-instagram-2019-11) . The question asks: When will a currently-undiscovered social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide? For the purposes of this question, "currently undiscovered" is defined as either having fewer than 10,000 downloads across the iOS App Store and the Android Play Store as of March 15, 2020 UTC 00:00, or being non-existent/unavailable to the general public at the time. This question ...
-# Forecasts: 79
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: If there is a WW3, what longitude will it start in?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3867/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-longitude-will-it-start-in/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/are-we-middle-long-peace-or-brink-major-war), while [others](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2017.1306394) have argued this moment of calm will likely last for some time due to the deterrence effect of nuclear weapons, the unipolarity of U.S hegemony, globalisation and international trade, and the efforts of peacekeepers such as the United Nations. At the time of writing, the Metaculus community [has estimated the likelihood of a 'WW3' to be 10%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/) . The question asks: If there is a "Third World War", what longitude will it start in? Longitude will be represented on a scale of -180 to 180, with -180 representing 180...
-# Forecasts: 89
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: If there is a WW3, what latitude will it start in?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3868/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-latitude-will-it-start-in/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/are-we-middle-long-peace-or-brink-major-war), while [others](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2017.1306394) have argued this moment of calm will likely last for some time due to the deterrence effect of nuclear weapons, the unipolarity of U.S hegemony, globalisation and international trade, and the efforts of peacekeepers such as the United Nations. At the time of writing, the Metaculus community [has estimated the likelihood of a 'WW3' to be 10%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/) . The question asks: If there is a "Third World War", what latitude will it start in? Latitude will be represented on a scale of -90 to 90, with -90 representing 90°S and...
-# Forecasts: 52
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3870/will-there-turn-out-to-be-widespread-fossils-of-algae-and-lichens-on-mars/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 2%
-Description: A recent [provocative paper](http://journalofastrobiology.com/MarsGaleCraterLife.html) by a quite reputable set of astrobiologists and others has claimed that in Gale crater on Mars, specimens resembling terrestrial algae, lichens, microbial mats, stro-matolites, ooids, tubular-shaped formations, and mineralized fossils of metazoans and calcium-carbonate encrusted cyanobacteria were observed and tentatively identified. but of course That some or most of these specimens may be abiotic, cannot be ruled out. This would, of course, be pretty monumental if true. We'll ask whether it will turn out that: "The tentative claims of the 2020 Joseph et al. paper are basically correct and a significant fraction of the features identified there were, in fact, fossils of life on Mars." This question is a bit experimental, one of a series of "self-resolving" ones. Resolution to this question will be determined as follows: --- If at any time after the date of Jan 1, 2025 the community prediction is ...
-# Forecasts: 170
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the United Kingdom apply to rejoin the EU?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3877/when-will-the-united-kingdom-apply-to-rejoin-the-eu/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Following a UK-wide [referendum in June 2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the British government formally announced the country's withdrawal in March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. Following a general election, Parliament ratified the [withdrawal agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit_withdrawal_agreement), and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020. The country is currently in a transition period until at least 31 December 2020, during which the UK remains in the single market, in order to ensure frictionless trade until a long-term relationship is established. If no such agreement is reached by that date and the transition period is not extended, a no-deal Brexit would be the default outcome in 2021. When, if ever, will the United Kingdom submit an application to rejoin the European Union? For this question to resolve positively, the ...
-# Forecasts: 86
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will humanity use more than one millionth of the sun's energy output?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3882/when-will-humanity-use-more-than-one-millionth-of-the-suns-energy-output/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The sun [produces watts](https://phys.org/news/2015-12-sun-energy.html) . At the beginning of 2017, [humanity captured watts](https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/iea-global-installed-pv-capacity-leaps-to-303-gw) using photovoltaic systems (less than 10⁻¹³% or one quadrillionth). However, the sun is one of the major sources of energy in the solar system, and it has been proposed that advanced civilizations could use their star as their [main source of energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale) . Specific structures proposed for this include [Dyson spheres](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyson_sphere) and their subtypes (swarms, bubbles and shells). Some futurists assume that such a structure could in principle be built in [less than a century](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haCV1PEeXz4&t=7m40s), given self-replicating mining equipment that disassembles mercury or large asteroids. This question asks: When will humanity be able to use more than watts produced by t...
-# Forecasts: 96
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3883/how-many-people-will-be-born-in-the-united-states-in-the-year-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The number of people born per year in the US has slightly decreased over the past decade. In 2010, 3,999,386 people were born in the US. For comparison, there were an estimated 3,791,712 births in 2018, according to the official [report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13-508.pdf) . One reason why the number of births in 2021 in particular is of interest is the coronavirus crisis. Some commentators have suggested that couples who are forced to spend time at home during quarantine may be more likely to have children, which would increase the birth rate. This however remains to be seen. Resolution criteria: This question will resolve when a US government agency, most likely the National Center for Health Statistics, releases a final estimate of the total number of live births for all US states and territories between January 1 and December 31, 2021. The report will likely not be published until late 2022, which is why this question is expected to resolve by 2023. (E.g. t...
-# Forecasts: 255
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will China legalise same-sex marriage?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3887/when-will-china-legalise-same-sex-marriage/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: At the moment, the [Marriage Law of the People's Republic of China](http://www.asianlii.org/cn/legis/cen/laws/mlotproc354/#:~:text=%5BArticle%202%5D%20A%20marriage%20system,Family%20planning%20shall%20be%20practised.) adopted on September 10, 1980, defines marriage as a union between a man and a woman. However, late last year, China's top legislative body has been advised to legalize same-sex marriage in the updated civil code. According to a [Bloomberg article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-20/china-hints-it-may-open-the-door-to-same-sex-marriage) : The Commission for Legislative Affairs of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee has received more than 237,000 online suggestions and 5,600 letters requesting to clarify the “scope of close relatives, improving the common debt of spouses and legalizing same-sex marriage,” according to the report, which cited Yue Zhongming, spokesman of the commission. The report didn’t specify if the legislature will include t...
-# Forecasts: 63
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3913/when-will-a-vaccine-for-hiv-be-administered-to-10-million-people/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV), The human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that infect humans. [...] The urgency of the search for a vaccine against HIV stems from the AIDS-related death toll of over 35 million people since 1981. To count, a vaccine must provide protection against the HIV-1 variant of Lentivirus. The relevant conditions for resolving this question are determined in an identical manner to those prescribed in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3860/when-will-a-vaccine-targeted-at-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-be-administered-to-at-least-10m-people/) for COVID-19. --- This question resolves as the date when such a vaccine first is administered to at least 10M people. --- Resolution will be by credible media report or credible official publication this has happened. The first HIV vaccine administered to at least 10M people can trigger: --- Positive resolution if there is...
-# Forecasts: 45
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it. In the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups. What value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season? The C...
-# Forecasts: 506
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: What will the peak population of Antarctica be by 2075?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3999/what-will-the-peak-population-of-antarctica-be-by-2075/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [Antarctica](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctica) remains as the last continent without a significant human presence. The southern landmass is presently governed by the terms of the [Antarctic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic_Treaty_System), which prohibits military activities and mineral mining, prohibits nuclear explosions and nuclear waste disposal, supports scientific research, and protects the continent's ecozone. As a result, Antarctica has very little to no long-term human population, which consists of roughly 5000 researchers in the summer and only 1000 during winter. But will this always be the case? The southern continent [has been heating up](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/13/antarctic-temperature-rises-above-20c-first-time-record) along with the rest of the planet and could potentially become more habitable, and/or more amenable to resource exploitation. In addition, the Antarctic treaty will come under review [in 2048](https://theconversatio...
-# Forecasts: 93
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the next US recession turn into a depression?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4013/will-the-next-us-recession-turn-into-a-depression/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 9%
-Description: As of Spring 2020, it seems likely that the world is only beginning to feel the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock market has plunged, and [unemployment has skyrocketed](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/) . It's clear that a recession is nearly inevitable. What is less clear is how bad things will get. One simple operationalization of this question is "Will the US Experience a Depression?" [According to Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp) : A depression is a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. In economics, a depression is commonly defined as an extreme recession that lasts three or more years or leads to a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 10 percent. According to this definition, Will the first United States recession before 2032 lead to a Depression? This question resolves positively if either of the following criteria is met during the f...
-# Forecasts: 339
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, in March 2020 the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%, and it is widely expected that the unemployment rate will continue to rise substantially in 2020, likely dramatically so. This question asks: When will the US unemployment rate next fall to 4% or lower? Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly [Employment Situation report.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)
-# Forecasts: 184
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic) . These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops. On the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled "I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming". Some excerpts: The sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time ...
-# Forecasts: 378
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: What will inflation be in the US in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic) . These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops. On the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled "I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming". Some excerpts: The sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time ...
-# Forecasts: 147
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: By 2030, will C. elegans be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4034/by-2030-will-c-elegans-be-uploaded-to-the-satisfaction-of-top-computational-neuroscientists/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 36%
-Description: From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caenorhabditis_elegans), Caenorhabditis elegans is a free-living, transparent nematode, about 1 mm in length, that lives in temperate soil environments. It is the type species of its genus. [...] In 1963, Sydney Brenner proposed research into C. elegans primarily in the area of neuronal development. In 1974, he began research into the molecular and developmental biology of C. elegans, which has since been extensively used as a model organism. It was the first multicellular organism to have its whole genome sequenced, and as of 2019, is the only organism to have its connectome (neuronal "wiring diagram") completed. In 2011 the project [OpenWorm](http://openworm.org/) began the ambitious [goal](http://docs.openworm.org/en/latest/modeling/) to "build the world's first virtual organism-- an in silico implementation of a living creature-- for the purpose of achieving an understanding of the events and mechanisms of living cells." More generally...
-# Forecasts: 133
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 1%
-Description: In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic) . These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops. On the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled "I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming". Some excerpts: The sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time ...
-# Forecasts: 160
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4037/will-a-sitting-us-president-not-seek-reelection-before-the-2080-election/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 86%
-Description: During his Farewell Address George Washington set the precedent of only pursuing two terms, a tradition that was set in stone by Thomas Jefferson, James Madison and James Monroe, who all publicly embraced the principle. From then on the presidents mostly adhered to this tradition. The first deviation came at the hands of Ulysses S. Grant, who sought to serve a third term in 1880, though that was eleven years after he had left the oval office. A more serious case was Theodore Roosevelt. President William McKinley was assassinated still in the first year of his second term and Vice President Roosevelt had to take over. He forewent a consecutive third term, since he felt term limits were a good check on dictatorships, being succeeded by William H. Taft. But due to his dissatisfaction with President Taft’s political acumen Roosevelt sought a third term for the 1912 election, heading the Progressive Party, thus once more straining the traditional two term limits, but due to his defeat at t...
-# Forecasts: 194
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will OpenAI unveil their secret AI project?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4043/when-will-openai-unveil-their-secret-ai-project/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Last year, OpenAI announced their big project for that year: [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/), a transformer based language model representing a significant advance in language modeling capabilities. On February 17th an [article](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/17/844721/ai-openai-moonshot-elon-musk-sam-altman-greg-brockman-messy-secretive-reality/) from the MIT Technology Review reported, One of the biggest secrets is the project OpenAI is working on next. Sources described it to me as the culmination of its previous four years of research: an AI system trained on images, text, and other data using massive computational resources. A small team has been assigned to the initial effort, with an expectation that other teams, along with their work, will eventually fold in. On the day it was announced at an all-company meeting, interns weren’t allowed to attend. People familiar with the plan offer an explanation: the leadership thinks this is the most promis...
-# Forecasts: 291
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4048/how-many-cents-will-it-cost-a-typical-consumer-in-the-united-states-to-store-10-gb-of-data-on-january-1st-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The website [diskprices.com](http://diskprices.com) keeps track of the lowest cost hard drives per byte by country. As of April 6th 2020, the cheapest hard drive per byte in the United States is 1.4 cents per GB. This comes out to 14 cents per 10 GB. What will be the average of the three cheapest-per-10GB drives reported on the site on January 1st 2025? If [diskprices.com](http://diskprices.com) does not exist on January 1st 2025, this question resolves ambiguously.
-# Forecasts: 117
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the maximum world real GDP growth in percentage points be for a single year in the 21st century?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4050/what-will-the-maximum-world-real-gdp-growth-in-percentage-points-be-for-a-single-year-in-the-21st-century/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: World real GDP growth is determined by a reliable organization, such as [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg) . The year with the highest growth in the 21st century is currently 2004 with 4.403% growth. The 21st century is defined as the era that began on January 1, 2001, and will end on December 31, 2100.
-# Forecasts: 64
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Alcor offer the use of a fixative during cryopreservation procedures before 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4051/will-alcor-offer-the-use-of-a-fixative-during-cryopreservation-procedures-before-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 52%
-Description: Aldehyde-Stabilized Cryopreservation (ASC) [is](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001122401500245X) a brain-banking technique for preserving detailed brain ultrastructure over long time scales. It was the technique that [won](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) the Large Mammal BPF Prize in 2018. ASC works by fixing biological tissue using glutaraldehyde, protecting the tissue from decay due to autolysis or putrefaction. However, glutaraldehyde is not the only [fixative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixation_(histology)) available. At the moment, ASC is merely the only technique that I'm currently aware of that uses a fixative to protect tissue prior to cryopreservation. Alcor does not currently offer ASC for its members, writing [a mixed review about it as a research direction](https://www.alcor.org/blog/http-www-alcor-org-blog-alcor-position-statement-on-large-brain-preservation-foundation-prize//) in 2018, and without releasing any plans...
-# Forecasts: 53
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: If cryonics is at some point offered for free, what percentage of Americans will be signed up within 10 years?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4052/if-cryonics-is-at-some-point-offered-for-free-what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-signed-up-within-10-years/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Assume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, some organization or person offers cryonics for free, meaning that all fees and associated costs are waived. There are a few reasons why this might happen, --- A wealthy person or organization begins offering it as a way of attracting people to cryonics. --- The government subsidizes cryonics as an alternative to the expensive [end-of-life care](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/End-of-life_care) industry that currently exists. The world population is expected to be [much older](https://ourworldindata.org/age-structure) on average in the near future, which could put strain on governments to cut healthcare costs. Cryonics proponents have historically [given arguments](https://alcor.org/Library/html/cryopreservingeveryone.html) for why they expect cryonics to scale extremely well, which if true, would imply that the cost of signing everyone in the United States up would be relatively cheap per capita. After 10 years of when the offe...
-# Forecasts: 56
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4053/what-will-be-the-alexa-traffic-rank-for-metaculuscom-on-january-1st-2022/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet#Alexa_Traffic_Rank) the Alexa Traffic Rank is designed to be an estimate of a website's popularity. As of April 6th 2020, [Metaculus.com](http://Metaculus.com) 's [rank](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com) is 538045 in global engagement. What will it be on January 1st 2022?
-# Forecasts: 217
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4055/will-the-first-agi-be-based-on-deep-learning/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 60%
-Description: The Deep Learning Book, which is considered by many to be the best reference textbook on the topic, [introduces deep learning](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html), This book is about a solution to [fuzzy ill-defined problems]. This solution is to allow computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts, with each concept defined through its relation to simpler concepts. By gathering knowledge from experience, this approach avoids the need for human operators to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts enables the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones. If we draw a graph showing how these concepts are built on top of each other, the graph is deep, with many layers. For this reason,we call this approach to AI deep learning Paul Christiano [has written](https://ai-alignment.com/prosaic-ai-control-b959644d79c2) that future AGI might be based on de...
-# Forecasts: 85
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is a straightforward [Keynesian beauty contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest) trying to address whether self-resolving questions are a good idea. This question asks: What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? See [the discussion about self resolving questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) . Predictions close to 1 will mean that users sentiment will be positive and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a good idea and score close to -1 will mean that users sentiment is negative and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a bad idea. It is up to you to decide whether you want to provide your own sentiment, your estimate of the sentiment of other Metaculus users, or the estimate of the estimates of the sentiment of other Metaculus users etc. Resolution criteria: With probability of 80% this question will resolve on t...
-# Forecasts: 78
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4061/will-any-major-ai-company-commit-to-an-ai-windfall-clause-by-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 33%
-Description: In 2020, the Future of Life Institute published a report entitled ["The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good."](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf) (They also wrote [an abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) to be published in the [Proceedings of AIES](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3375627.3375842) . Also, fun aside: Metaculus' own [@Anthony](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/8/) got a shout-out in the acknowledgements.) Essentially, they expanded on an idea from Bostrom's Superintelligence that a firm working on transformational AI technology could limit global inequality as a result of their breakthrough by pre-committing to keep only a fraction of the fabulous profits, and distribute the rest. Though there are numerous obstacles barring the path to making this plan a reality, the FLI research lowers many of these bars, including investigating the legal apparatus for enacting such an agreem...
-# Forecasts: 56
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4066/10m-are-administered-an-efficacious-vaccine/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally. As of 20 March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) is [reporting that it is tracking the development of forty-four SARS-CoV-2 candidate vaccines](https://www.who.int/blueprint/priority-diseases/key-action/novel-coronavirus-landscape-ncov.pdf?ua=1) . Two of these candidates have entered phase one and the other forty-two remain in the pre-clinical stage. There is an urgent need to determine when the first of these candidates will have been found to have a high degree of efficacy and will have been administered to a significant number of people. [The WHO defines](htt...
-# Forecasts: 1513
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: What will be the relative severity of the next US depression, compared to the Great Depression?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4083/what-will-be-the-relative-severity-of-the-next-us-depression-compared-to-the-great-depression/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Assume that either of the following criteria is met during the first recession before 2032: --- The US remains in a recession for 36 months or longer (as adjudicated by [this Metaculus Question's resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2623/if-the-us-enters-a-recession-how-many-months-will-the-economic-contraction-last/) --i.e., if that one resolves ≥36, this criterion has been met). --- Any year's Annual Real GDP growth (as [reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases)) is estimated to be -10% or less. This question resolves ambiguously if no such depression occurs. Define the relative severity of this depression as the number of months the depression lasts times the real GDP decline in percentage points (peak to trough, on an annual basis), divided by 1131. We divide by 1131 because the Great Depression lasted 43 months, and the real GDP decline [was](https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543) 26.3%, and . What will be t...
-# Forecasts: 144
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many years will caloric restriction be demonstrated to add to one's natural lifespan?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4094/how-many-years-will-caloric-restriction-be-demonstrated-to-add-to-ones-natural-lifespan/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Caloric restriction is, a dietary regimen that reduces food intake without incurring malnutrition. "Reduce" can be defined relative to the subject's previous intake before intentionally restricting food or beverage consumption, or relative to an average person of similar body type. [...] In a 2017 report on rhesus monkeys, caloric restriction in the presence of adequate nutrition was effective in delaying the effects of aging. Assume that before 2150, the results from a high quality randomized control trial exploring the effects of caloric restriction on natural human lifespan are published. If such research is published, how many years will the researchers report caloric restriction adds on average? For the purpose of this question, we exclude results from participants that --- Did not regularly follow the best practices recommended by the researchers for caloric restriction --- Quit caloric restriction at some point at least 5 years before their death. --- Began caloric restricti...
-# Forecasts: 73
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: If Donald Trump is reelected president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4101/if-donald-trump-is-reelected-president-what-will-be-the-yearly-co2-emissions-per-capita-in-the-us-in-2024/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Unlike his predecessor Barack Obama, Donald Trump's environmental priorities have not included the reduction of emissions by the US, and are instead aimed [at rolling back environmental regulations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_policy_of_the_Donald_Trump_administration) . If he gets a second term, he may continue and expand these policies. I am curious about the overall impact of this on CO2 emissions, so I ask: If Donald Trump becomes president as a result of the 2020 election, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024, in tonnes? Resolution will be by the [Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research](https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/9d09ccd1-e0dd-11e9-9c4e-01aa75ed71a1/language-en), or a similar reliable source. This question resolves ambiguously if the next US presidential election is cancelled (but not if it's just delayed until some point in 2021). See also: --- [If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be t...
-# Forecasts: 86
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Assume for the purpose of this question, some biological humans are still alive on January 1st 2200. In that case, consider the oldest [confirmed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people) biological human alive at the start of that day. When will they have been born? If there are no biological humans alive on January 1st, 2200, this question resolves ambiguously.
-# Forecasts: 69
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4118/will-there-be-a-positive-transition-to-a-world-with-radically-smarter-than-human-artificial-intelligence/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 65%
-Description: A world with radically smarter-than-human intelligence would probably be very different than the one we live in today. [Bostrom (2003)](https://nickbostrom.com/ethics/ai.html) speculated on the likely outcome following the creation of artificial superintelligence, It is hard to think of any problem that a superintelligence could not either solve or at least help us solve. Disease, poverty, environmental destruction, unnecessary suffering of all kinds: these are things that a superintelligence equipped with advanced nanotechnology would be capable of eliminating. Additionally, a superintelligence could give us indefinite lifespan, either by stopping and reversing the aging process through the use of nanomedicine, or by offering us the option to upload ourselves. A superintelligence could also create opportunities for us to vastly increase our own intellectual and emotional capabilities, and it could assist us in creating a highly appealing experiential world in which we could live lives...
-# Forecasts: 109
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 2%
-Description: There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Question: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023? This resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both: ---Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender). ---Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) .
-# Forecasts: 143
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: After an AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligence?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Futurists have long speculated that upon the arrival of AGI, the first sperintelligence will quickly follow. From I. J. Good, [writing in 1965](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065245808604180), Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion,’ and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control. Nick Bostrom wrote in his book Superintelligence (2014), Note that one could think that it will take quite a long time until machines reach the human baseline, or one might be agnostic about how long that will take, and yet have...
-# Forecasts: 139
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the first year during which most deaths are from non-disease related causes and fewer than 1% of humans die?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4125/what-will-be-the-first-year-during-which-most-deaths-are-from-non-disease-related-causes-and-fewer-than-1-of-humans-die/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Disease: is a particular abnormal condition that negatively affects the structure or function of all or part of an organism, and that is not due to any immediate external injury. Diseases are often known to be medical conditions that are associated with specific symptoms and signs. According to [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death), disease is responsible for nearly 97% of human deaths in the world, as of 2017. Futurists have long speculated that humanity may one day have a cure to all diseases, and that at that point, people will only die from injuries such as intentional suicide and accidents. Another possibility is that we may discover a way to prevent the aging process, providing humans with perpetually healthy life. Writing in 1794, Marquis de Condorcet had [predicted](https://sourcebooks.fordham.edu/mod/condorcet-progress.asp), Would it be absurd now to suppose that the improvement of the human race should be regarded as capable of unlimited progress? T...
-# Forecasts: 34
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 20%
-Description: Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) The [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll) This question asks: In the United States pre...
-# Forecasts: 470
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: What will be the total damage incurred by climate change in the 21st century as measured by its impact on GDP?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4159/climate-change-damage-in-the-21st-century/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: From [a review](https://academic.oup.com/reep/article/12/1/4/4804315) of the economic impacts of climate change, The impacts of climate change are many and diverse. Determining whether these impacts are beneficial or detrimental, small or large, depends on the sector, location, and time being considered. Unfortunately, a reading of the literature on the impacts of climate change (Field and Canziani 2014) is likely to leave a lay reader confused. It is very difficult to make sense of the many and different effects: crops hit by worsening drought, crops growing faster because of carbon dioxide fertilization, heat stress increasing, cold stress decreasing, sea levels rising, increasing energy demand for cooling, decreasing energy demand for heating, infectious disease spreading, species going extinct. Thus we need aggregate indicators to assess whether climate change is, on balance, a good thing or a bad thing and whether the climate problem is small or large relative to the many other pr...
-# Forecasts: 24
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
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-Title: When will a human chess player reach a FIDE rating of 2900?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4209/when-will-a-human-chess-player-reach-a-fide-rating-of-2900/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The highest rated chess player as of May 2020 is [Magnus Carlsen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnus_Carlsen), who currently possesses a FIDE rating of [2863](https://ratings.fide.com/card.phtml?event=1503014) . His peak rating (and the highest rating of all time) was 2882, achieved back in May 2014. An overview of top-ranked chess grandmasters sorted by their peak rating can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_chess_players_by_peak_FIDE_rating) or [here](https://2700chess.com/records) . When will a human chess player reach a peak FIDE rating of 2900 or more in classical chess? Resolution will be based off of the official monthly FIDE rating publications. The question resolves ambiguously if FIDE ceases to be the governing body of international chess competition and/or fails to publish the relevant data for 6 months in a row. The question resolves as ">2040" if no human chess player achieves the required rating by the resolution date.
-# Forecasts: 61
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
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-Title: What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4215/what-will-be-the-real-world-gdp-on-the-year-agi-is-deployed-in-trillions-of-dollars/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: An important input to technological development is economic productivity. From Nick Bostrom's [The Future of Humanity](https://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/future.pdf) (2005), One could argue that to get an index of the overall pace of technological development, we should look not at a hand-picked portfolio of hot technologies; but instead at economic growth, which implicitly incorporates all productivity-enhancing technological innovations, weighted by their economic significance. Furthermore, many proposed AI takeoff scenarios are framed in terms of economic growth and development (See for instance [Baumann](http://s-risks.org/a-framework-for-thinking-about-ai-timescales/) and [Hanson](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf)). Economic investment has also been pointed to as a driving factor of the recent [AI and compute trend](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) . If Paul Christiano's [slow AI takeoff view](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) is right, then ec...
-# Forecasts: 72
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4219/will-large-scale-solar-radiation-management-be-used-to-mitigate-the-effects-of-climate-change-in-the-21st-century/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 40%
-Description: From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management), Solar radiation management (SRM) proposals are a type of climate engineering which would seek to reflect sunlight and thus reduce global warming. Proposed methods include increasing the planetary albedo, for example using stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Restorative methods have been proposed regarding the protection of natural heat reflectors like sea ice, snow and glaciers with engineering projects. [...] Solar radiation management has certain advantages relative to emissions cuts, adaptation, and carbon dioxide removal. Its effect of counteracting climate change would be experienced very rapidly, on the order of months after implementation, whereas the effects of emissions cuts and carbon dioxide removal are delayed because the climate change that they prevent is itself delayed. Some proposed solar radiation management techniques are expected to have very low direct financial costs of implementation, relative...
-# Forecasts: 31
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
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-Title: Will Stephen Wolfram or his co-authors, Jonathan Gorard and Max Piskunov, receive the Nobel prize in physics before the end of 2035?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4224/will-stephen-wolfram-or-his-co-authors-jonathan-gorard-and-max-piskunov-receive-the-nobel-prize-in-physics-before-the-end-of-2035/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 1%
-Description: In the Wolfram Physics Project, Stephen Wolfram and co-authors [have proposed](https://writings.stephenwolfram.com/2020/04/finally-we-may-have-a-path-to-the-fundamental-theory-of-physics-and-its-beautiful/) a class of models to represent fundamental physics. Will Stephen Wolfram (and/or his co-authors) receive a Nobel prize in physics for this work before the end of 2035? This question resolves positively if Stephen Wolfram, or Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov win the nobel prize in physics before the end of 2035. For a positive resolution, the Nobel Prize committee must refer to work published by any of these individuals that is directly related to the 2020 Wolfram Physics Project. By "related to the 2020 Wolfram Physics Project", we mean that the work must build on a similar approach or set of insights as those explored in the Wolfram Physics Project, as judged by Metaculus admin.
-# Forecasts: 167
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the seasonally adjusted atmospheric concentration of C02 be lower than the same time in the previous year?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4225/when-will-the-seasonally-adjusted-atmospheric-concentration-of-c02-be-lower-than-the-same-time-in-the-previous-year/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In tracking progress on climate change, a key milestone would be when the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere stabilises. An indicator of this would be the first time after the opening of this question that the seasonally adjusted concentration dips below the same metric 365 days prior. This question can be settled on the daily trend values given at the [NOAA website](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html) (Ed Dlugokencky and Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL). If this source becomes available, this question can resolve according to another source of similar quality, for example the [Scripps CO Program](https://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/data/atmospheric_co2/) or [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/) .
-# Forecasts: 32
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the number of foreign nationals in Mainland China fall between 2010 and 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4229/will-the-number-of-foreign-nationals-in-mainland-china-fall-between-2010-and-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 26%
-Description: Since the election of Xi Jinping, China has substantially slowed or stopped its previous trend of gradually increasing openness to and economic integration with the outside world. The Covid-19 pandemic has only accelerated the [decoupling](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2020/03/28/2003733510) of China's economy from the US. China has [banned](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/26/821972324/china-temporarily-closes-its-borders-to-foreign-nationals) the entry of foreign nationals and regards those inside its border with [suspicion](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-foreigners/foreigners-face-suspicion-in-china-as-coronavirus-worsens-overseas-idUSKBN21E1DU) . This question asks, will Mainland China be less open to the world in 2030 than it was in 2010? Specifically, will the number of foreign nationals living in China as reported on the 8th national census (assuming it takes place in 2030) be less than the number r...
-# Forecasts: 59
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use by 2070?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4230/how-many-countries-will-at-least-in-some-form-decriminalize-possession-of-all-schedule-i-drugs-for-personal-use-by-2070/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ======= As of 2020, possession of small amounts of certain psychoactive drugs (e.g., LSD or MDMA) for personal use is a criminal offense in many countries of the world. However, sometimes drug laws are changed. An activity related to drugs (such as possession of drugs) may be decriminalized, which means removal of criminal penalties for it. It may also be legalized, which implies removal of penalties for it altogether. Talkingdrugs [drug decriminalization map](https://www.talkingdrugs.org/drug-decriminalisation) indicates that the possession (at least in very small quantities for personal use) of any recreational drug, including drugs from Schedule I, is not criminalized by law in 19 countries in 2020. Out of these 19 countries, drug decriminalization occured in 14 countries in the 1991-2020 period, and in 3 countries in the 2011-2020 period. Question ======== How many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize the possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal us...
-# Forecasts: 33
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the mean expected lifespan gain from one year of the TRIIM-X trial, as measured by the epigenetic clock GrimAge?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4231/what-will-be-the-mean-expected-lifespan-gain-from-one-year-of-the-triim-x-trial-as-measured-by-the-epigenetic-clock-grimage/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In September 2019 Fahy et al. [published](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/acel.13028) results from the TRIIM (Thymus Regeneration, Immunorestoration, and Insulin Mitigation) trial. Their stated goals were to investigate whether they could restore the immune systems in eight healthy older men (ages 51 - 65) using a combination of recombinant human growth hormone, dehydroepiandrosterone and metformin. While they achieved impressive on-paper results partially restoring the [thymus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thymus), the most impressive result came from their [epigenetic measurement of aging](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epigenetic_clock) of subjects in the trial. Fahy et al. had successfully reversed aging in their subjects according to four epigenetic measures of aging. The effect size was large: each measure indicated an average gain of over 2 years after 1 year of treatment. In other words, if hypothetically a subject was 60 years old at the beginning of the trial...
-# Forecasts: 30
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Recent natural language processing (NLP) models have succeeded in generating human-level [text](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) and [translations](https://www.aclweb.org/anthology/W19-6711.pdf) . However questions remain regarding to what extent this success relies on understanding, as opposed to memorization of statistical patterns. [A recent paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.07355.pdf) showed that when statistical-cues are removed, state of the art NLP models fail on argument reasoning tasks -- despite human performance remaining unaffected. Untrained humans perform at ~80% accuracy on this argument reasoning task, whereas recent NLP models perform near 50%. When will a machine learning model out-perform the human-level of 80% accuracy on this benchmark? This question resolves when either: 1--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on the Niven and Kao [benchmark](https://github.com/IKMLab/arct2) . 2--A paper posted on [...
-# Forecasts: 70
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Human infant learning integrates information across senses -- sight, sound, touch, etc. -- but current state of the art machine learning models usually use only one of these types. It remains to be seen whether integrating data across modes is necessary for achieving human-level intelligence. In contemporary machine learning (ML) research, we are mostly interested in image, text, graph, and video data. State of the art models in each of these domains train only on inputs of that specific domain; let's call this uni-modal training. By extension, if a model were to train on two or more of these input types, while evaluating on only one, we'll call that multi-modal training with uni-modal evaluation. For the purposes of this question, we are only interested in uni-modal evaluation tasks, so robotics and driving benchmarks are out of the question. Question Description: When will a multi-modal trained model out-perform the previous state of the art on one of the following uni-modal benchmar...
-# Forecasts: 96
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4249/when-will-there-be-a-vegan-cheese-indistinguishable-from-non-vegan-cheese-available-for-purchase-by-regular-consumers/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Many animal rights thinkers now anticipate that there will be radical shift in society's treatment of animal upon the development of tasty plant-based meats [citation needed]. However, the development of plant-based meats would not necessarily entail the end of animal agriculture. When will there be a vegan cheese version of Mozzarella, Cheddar, Feta, Provolone, Swiss, or Monterey Jack that is indistinguishable from its original counterpart, as determined by an n≥250 RCT? Define a vegan food as a food which is widely considered to be made without any animal products. A vegan cheese is said to be vegan food that is intended to emulate the taste, quality, and texture of normal cheese. A vegan cheese is said to be indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese if a high quality double-blind trial determined that ordinary humans (who previously reported having tasted the non-vegan cheese being compared) could not reliably determine the difference between the vegan imitation cheese and the non-veg...
-# Forecasts: 63
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4264/how-many-years-after-the-silver-turing-test-is-passed-will-an-agi-system-be-developed/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Given the public disagreement of expert opinion on AI timelines, seen for example [here](http://www.parlonsfutur.com/blog/the-fascinating-facebook-debate-between-yann-lecun-stuart-russel-and-yoshua), there is a need to establish a credible track-record of accurate forecasting in the lead-up to the development of AGI. Oren Etzioni, head of the Allen AI institute, recently published an [article](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/25/906083/artificial-intelligence-destroy-civilization-canaries-robot-overlords-take-over-world-ai/) on identifying 'canaries' which will presage the imminent development of AGI. He proposes that limited versions of the Turing Test could present a natural canary. This question's resolution will be determined by the number of years between the positive resolution of two other metaculus questions: the silver [Turing Test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/) prediction and [AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/que...
-# Forecasts: 60
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4265/how-much-exercise-can-you-do-before-it-starts-to-take-more-time-than-it-adds-life/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Exercise may make you live longer. But it also costs time. Question How many minutes a day of out-of-breath endurance exercise can someone healthy do from the age of 25, before another minute adds less than a minute of extra life? Definitions Endurance exercise means time spent out of breath for over five minutes. It doesn't include rest, travel, work to pay for equipment and so on. But out-of-breath running, cycling, swimming and so on count. Extra life means you live longer. It doesn't include time that would otherwise be spent, say, working to pay for a doctor, and so on. We'll take someone healthy to mean a person who: --- was born in the 1990s, --- doesn't smoke, --- eats over 500 grams a day of fruit and vegetables, --- has body fat that weighs under 18% of their mass if they're a man, and under 25% if they're a woman, --- drinks under 70 grams a week of [pure alcohol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_of_alcohol), and --- lives in a [World Bank high-income country](ht...
-# Forecasts: 113
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will NAD+ boosters be shown in a systematic review to increase human lifespan by >=5% by 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4290/will-nad-boosters-be-shown-in-a-systematic-review-to-increase-human-lifespan-by-5-by-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 24%
-Description: Long-term supplementation of NAD+ boosters such as Nicotinamide Riboside and Nicotinamide Mononucleotide have been demonstrated to increase lifespan in animal models. Human clinical trials are ongoing, with published papers demonstrating: ---Safety and increase in NAD+ levels. ([1](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29992272/), [2](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29211728/)) ---Insulin sensitivity unchanged. ([1](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29992272/)) ---Cardiac biomarkers seem to improve. ([3](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5876407/)) Will a systematic review of human trials conclude by 2030 that NAD+ boosting is effective in increasing human lifespan by >5%? This question will resolve positive if at any point until 2030 a systematic review of clinical trials of NAD+ boosting will explicitly mention a lifespan improvement of at least 5% in humans. (results in animal models or lifespan estimation based on results in treatment of diseases are not enough for positiv...
-# Forecasts: 37
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Which Artemis Moon Mission landing system will first land a person on the moon?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4306/which-artemis-moon-mission-landing-system-will-first-land-a-person-on-the-moon/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: At the end of April, NASA [announced](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions) the selection of three private companies to develop a lunar lander: NASA has selected three U.S. companies to design and develop human landing systems (HLS) for the agency’s Artemis program, one of which will land the first woman and next man on the surface of the Moon by 2024. The three companies are: 1--Blue Origin 2--Dynetics 3--SpaceX This question asks: Which of these three companies will be first in developing a lunar landing system that successfully lands a person on the moon? This question will resolve to precisely 1,2 or 3 when a lander build by the respective team successfully lands a living human on the moon. In the case that none of the 3 successfully lands a living human on the moon before January 1, 2030, the question will resolve to a value of 0. If two of the teams merge or NASA selects a different company to develop a luna...
-# Forecasts: 58
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Longbets series: By 2040 will the percentage of college-aged U.S. citizens who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States drop at least 50% from the level in 2011?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4319/longbets-series-by-2040-will-the-percentage-of-college-aged-us-citizens-who-are-attending-postsecondary-educational-institutions-in-the-united-states-drop-at-least-50-from-the-level-in-2011/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 25%
-Description: Brant von Goble and John C Leven summarize the reasons for their respective sides [here](http://longbets.org/676/) . If the Long Now Foundation declares Brant von Goble the winner then this question resolves positively. If they declare John C Leven the winner, this question resolves negatively.
-# Forecasts: 24
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2031?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4332/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2031/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a "cost per life saved" metric to compare them on. While they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be. Over time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previ...
-# Forecasts: 78
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4333/what-will-be-the-democracy-index-of-the-united-states-in-2040/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) is an index compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a UK-based company. It intends to measure the state of democracy in 167 countries, of which 166 are sovereign states and 164 are UN member states. It ranges from 0 - 10 for countries, where 0 theoretically represents an autocracy with no democratic freedoms, and 10 represents a perfect democracy. There are also four categories a nation may be placed under depending on its score: authoritarian regime (0-4), hybrid regime (4-6), flawed democracy (6-8), and full democracy (8-10). The index for 2019 can be viewed [here](http://www.eiu.com/public/thankyou_download.aspx?activity=download&campaignid=democracyindex2019) . As of the 2019 report, the United States had an overall score of 7.96, making it a flawed democracy. What will that number be in the 2040 report? This question resolves ambiguously if the report is discontinued. It also resolves ambiguous if ...
-# Forecasts: 51
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 64%
-Description: [Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. In the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to: 1-- White wins 2-- Black wins 3-- Forced draw If chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? For the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if --- it is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides --- it is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw Resolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication. For the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
-# Forecasts: 163
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the Harvard endowment be larger in 2119 than in 2019?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4349/will-the-harvard-endowment-be-larger-in-2119-than-in-2019/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 51%
-Description: [Harvard University](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard_University) is the oldest university in the United States and has the largest [endowment](https://www.harvard.edu/about-harvard/harvard-glance/endowment), with [$40.9 billion in assets under management (AUM) as of June 30, 2019](https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/partners-performance/#performance) . The endowment's mission is ["to help ensure Harvard University has the financial resources to confidently maintain and expand its leadership in education and research for future generations."](https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/about/) . The Harvard Management Company (HMC), which runs the endowment, intends the endowment to provide Harvard with a source of income for the next hundred years or longer. Will HMC achieve its goal? On an inflation-adjusted basis, will the Harvard Endowment have more assets under management on June 30, 2119 than it did on June 30, 2019? If the endowment's AUM as of June 30, 2119 is not publicly known, then this questi...
-# Forecasts: 30
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the Japanese passenger car fleet?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4360/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-japanese-passenger-car-fleet/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Japan is one of the largest electric vehicle markets in the world, behind only [China, the USA, and Norway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country#Statistics) in total stock, as well as being the origin country of the Toyota Prius, the first [mass-produced hybrid-electric vehicle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_electric_vehicle#Modern_hybrids) . According to [Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/711994/japan-electric-car-market-share/), in 2018, 1.13% of motor vehicles in Japan were electric cars. When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in Japan? The date is resolved by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on Japanese roads is over 5% of the total number of passenger cars. For the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as a "passenger car", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy...
-# Forecasts: 32
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the US national debt reach $50 trillion?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4364/when-will-the-us-national-debt-reach-50-trillion/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The national debt of the United States is the debt, or unpaid borrowed funds, carried by the federal government of the United States, which is measured as the face value of the currently outstanding Treasury securities that have been issued by the Treasury and other federal government agencies. [As of May 5 2020, debt held by the public was $19.149 trillion and intragovernmental holdings were $5.909 trillion, for a total or "National Debt" of $25.057 trillion.](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/pd_debttothepenny.htm) [You can view a live National Debt Clock here.](https://www.usdebtclock.org/) This question asks: When will the United States national debt reach $50 trillion nominal dollars? Resolution should cite figures from the US Treasury or a US federal government agency responsible for managing the national debt or producing economic statistics.
-# Forecasts: 104
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4390/what-will-be-the-lowest-cost-per-kilogram-in-us-dollars-to-deliver-a-payload-to-leo-or-beyond-before-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Traditionally, access to space has been extremely expensive. However, prices continue to fall with each passing decade as new technologies are developed and the sector becomes more commercialised. [SpaceX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), for example, has demonstrated the potential of reusable rockets. Other advances in the future may include lighter materials, the use of inflatable modules, new fuel types, space planes, and more efficient engines. More speculatively, it may eventually be possible to deliver payloads to orbit with more exotic delivery methods such as space elevators or other non-rocket space launch systems. As of 2020, [although the cost to launch a payload to LEO has dropped considerably in recent decades, spaceflight remains a fairly costly endeavour](https://www.futuretimeline.net/data-trends/6.htm) . For example, a flight to LEO on a Falcon 9 rocket with a reused first stage costs [about $50 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) for a 15,600kg maxi...
-# Forecasts: 120
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4409/will-one-of-the-first-agi-claim-to-be-conscious/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 75%
-Description: [Consciousness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consciousness) is a concept hard to define. Wikipedia states that consciousness at its simplest is "awareness or sentience of internal or external existence". And that despite centuries of analyses, definitions, explanations and debates by philosophers and scientists, consciousness remains puzzling and controversial, being "at once the most familiar and most mysterious aspect of our lives". This question will not attempt to define consciousness or solve the so called [hard problem of consciousness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hard_problem_of_consciousness) . Instead this question simply asks will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious? Resolution will be based on the conversation with the first AGI that Metaculus team will have access to. Metaculus team should ask the AI: 1--Are you conscious? 2--Should the question "Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?" on Metaculus resolve positive or negative? This question will res...
-# Forecasts: 97
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What is the greatest number of people who, for non-medical purposes, use a newly discovered drug at any year between 2021 and 2070?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4418/what-is-the-greatest-number-of-people-who-for-non-medical-purposes-use-a-newly-discovered-drug-at-any-year-between-2021-and-2070/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [World drug report](https://wdr.unodc.org/wdr2019/prelaunch/WDR19_Booklet_2_DRUG_DEMAND.pdf) estimates 188M users of cannabis and 21M users of ecstasy worldwide in 2017. It also mentions that 892 new psychoactive substances were reported to United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime early warning advisory in 2005-2018 period, however, none of them lead in worldwide usage statistics. Suppose some chemical compound (e.g. newly synthesized drug) is first reported to be non-medically (e.g. recreational) consumed by humans after 2021 inclusively. What is the estimated worldwide number of users of any such drug at any year between 2021 and 2070 (inclusively)? --- Drugs qualify only if the first reports of non-medical (e.g. recreational) consumption emerges after 2020 --- Non-medical consumption here includes a wide range of use-cases including recreation and using drugs for physical, cognitive, emotional effects, but does not include usage primarily for treating/preventing diseases or aging...
-# Forecasts: 70
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: By 1 January 2067, medical interventions for healthy adults will have been shown to extend average lifespan by at least 25 years
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4429/by-1-january-2067-medical-interventions-for-healthy-adults-will-have-been-shown-to-extend-average-lifespan-by-at-least-25-years/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 25%
-Description: In 2017, [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) conducted [an investigation on the mechanisms of aging](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging) . A [section](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging#Indefinite_vs._moderate_healthy_life_extension) of their writeup considers indefinite life extension, as distinct from modest extension of lifespan, and concludes, with 7% confidence, that by 2067 some collection of medical interventions for adults will have been shown to extend adult lifespan by at least 25 years. This question will resolve according to Open Philanthropy's explicit criteria:* By January 1, 2067, there will be [some] collection of medical interventions for adults that are healthy apart from normal aging, which, according to conventional wisdom in the medical community, have been shown to increase the average lifespan of such adults by at least 25 years (...
-# Forecasts: 74
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4433/if-biden-becomes-president-will-there-be-an-expansion-of-the-keystone-pipeline-system-of-at-least-100-km-in-length-by-the-end-of-2024/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 3%
-Description: The [Keystone Pipeline system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline) is an oil pipeline in Canada and the United States, beginning operations in 2010. The fourth phase, referred to as Keystone XL, attracted opposition from environmentalists and was eventually denied a permit by the Obama administration in 2015. Under Trump, a permit was granted again, though construction has not yet started. In May 2020, Biden claimed that if elected, [he will cancel the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/biden-kxl-1.5574515) . If Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the Keystone Pipeline system be extended by at least 100 km between his inauguration and the end of 2024? Only the length of pipeline built on US territory will count for this question.
-# Forecasts: 102
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will North Korea become a democracy?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4439/when-will-north-korea-become-a-democracy/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: North Korea is known to the broader international community as being a [Hermit Kingdom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hermit_kingdom) . A 2014 UN inquiry into human rights in North Korea has [stated](https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=14255&LangID=E), "the gravity, scale and nature of [their human rights violations] reveal a state that does not have any parallel in the contemporary world." The ultimate source of these allegations derives from their highly authoritarian government, currently under under the leadership of Kim Jong-un. North Korea is said to become a democracy if the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) ranks them as 6.00 or above for some year. However, at the moment, they are ranked at 1.08, the lowest of any nation in the world. January 1st of the year for which North Korea was ranked 6.00 or above will be the year of resolution. This question resolves ambiguously if the Democracy Index radically overhauls...
-# Forecasts: 64
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What rank will the United States be on the inequality adjusted human development index in 2035?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4440/what-rank-will-the-united-states-be-on-the-inequality-adjusted-human-development-index-in-2035/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The [inequality-adjusted human development index can be described as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_inequality-adjusted_HDI), "the level of human development when inequality is accounted for," whereas the Human Development Index itself, from which the IHDI is derived, is "an index of potential human development (or the maximum IHDI that could be achieved if there were no inequality)." While the US is currently ranked 15 on the human development index, [it's ranked 28](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_inequality-adjusted_HDI#List) on the inequality adjusted index. What will the rank of the US be in the 2035 report, as published by the United Nations Development Programme?
-# Forecasts: 19
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will be the next "Great Power" war?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. While great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias....
-# Forecasts: 112
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4442/what-will-be-the-gross-receipts-of-the-sens-research-foundation-in-the-2021-tax-year-as-reported-on-their-form-990/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The [SENS Research Foundation](https://www.sens.org/) is one of the best-known organisations in the anti-aging research space. SENS Research Foundation (SRF) is a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization focused on transforming the way the world researches and treats age-related disease. SRF focuses on a damage repair paradigm for treating the diseases of aging, which it advances through scientific research, advocacy and education. SENS Research Foundation supports research projects at universities and institutes around the world with the goal of curing such age-related diseases as macular degeneration, heart disease, cancer, and Alzheimer’s disease. As a 501(c)(3) non-profit, it is obliged to file an IRS Form 990 Return of Organization Exempt From Income Tax, from which we can obtain certain financial information. Here's [their Form 990 from the 2018 tax year.](https://www.sens.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/2018-SENS-990-Public-Copy.pdf) We can see their gross receipts in that tax year wer...
-# Forecasts: 81
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: At the start of the 21st century, the United States was widely considered to be the world's sole superpower. This is beginning to change, with the rapid rise of China. The chosen metrics are, --- [Nominal GDP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)) per the International Monetary Fund (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators). --- [Military expenditures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators). --- [The Nature Index](https://www.natureindex.com/annual-tables/2019/country/all) . If this index is discontinued, then [International Science Ranking](https://www.scimagojr.com/countryrank.php) takes its place. If both are discontinued, then this question resolves ambiguously. This question resolves January 1st on the year during which each published report listed demonstrates ...
-# Forecasts: 122
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the highest value of the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) before 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4444/what-will-be-the-highest-value-of-the-us-private-sector-job-quality-index-jqi-1-before-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [jobqualityindex.com](https://www.jobqualityindex.com/) The JQI is aimed at assessing the degree to which the number of jobs in the United States is weighted towards more desirable higher-wage/higher-hour jobs versus lower-wage/lower-hour jobs, which can serve as a proxy for the overall health of the U.S. jobs market, the national economy, and worldwide financial markets. The initial form of the index (JQI-1) covers only production and nonsupervisory workers. The index divides all jobs into high and low quality by calculating the mean weekly income (hourly wages times by hours worked) and then calculates the number of jobs that are above or below that mean. An index reading of 100 would indicate an even distribution between high and low quality jobs. Index value below 100 indicate a greater concentration in lower quality job positions (those below the mean). Index above 100 indicates greater concentration in high quality (above the mean) job positions. Conceptually: Exact calculation...
-# Forecasts: 41
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4449/when-will-global-ipv4-traffic-account-for-less-than-1-of-total-internet-traffic/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: IPv4 was introduced in 1983 and now forms the basis for internet routing. It is a 32-bit addressing system so there are 2^32 or 4,294,967,296 addresses (some addresses are reserved so the usable number is slightly less). [The internet is running out of IPv4 addresses.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPv4_address_exhaustion) IPv6 was drafted in 1998 and finally standardized in 2017. IPv6's address space is extended to 2^128 or 3.4 x 10^38. The internet is currently transitioning over to IPv6. [IPv6 traffic now accounts for over 30% of Google's user traffic.](https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html) [Akamai](https://www.akamai.com/us/en/why-akamai/dns-trends-and-traffic.jsp) lists IPv6 traffic at 17.79%. When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic, as reported by Akamai? Resolution will be based on Akamai's reporting of the number of IPv4 transactions as a share of total transactions (not bandwidth or other metrics). If Akamai ceases to exi...
-# Forecasts: 52
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The [largest known prime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_known_prime_number) is currently 24,862,048 digits in length. In 1961 the largest known prime was only 1,332 digits. When will a 100 million digit prime be discovered? This question will resolve with the date of publication of the prime in question.
-# Forecasts: 68
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4456/will-the-united-states-test-a-nuclear-weapon-before-2023/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 5%
-Description: In May 2020, the Washington Post reported that the Trump Administration was considering conducting the first US nuclear test in decades. Washington Post: [Trump administration discussed conducting first U.S. nuclear test in decades](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-administration-discussed-conducting-first-us-nuclear-test-in-decades/2020/05/22/a805c904-9c5b-11ea-b60c-3be060a4f8e1_story.html) The Trump administration has discussed whether to conduct the first U.S. nuclear test explosion since 1992 in a move that would have far-reaching consequences for relations with other nuclear powers and reverse a decades-long moratorium on such actions, said a senior administration official and two former officials familiar with the deliberations. The matter came up at a meeting of senior officials representing the top national security agencies last Friday, following accusations from administration officials that Russia and China are conducting low-yield nuclear tests — an a...
-# Forecasts: 111
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Joe Biden claims he will increase [the federal minimum wage to $15/hr](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/), a figure notably promoted by the [Fight for $15](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fight_for_$15) movement, up from its current value of $7.25/hr. The $15 minimum wage movement has seen some successes on the local level, with [six states](https://www.vox.com/2019/3/28/18285346/maryland-passes-15-minimum-wage) having laws that will phase in a $15 minimum wage. Such a move is backed by the rest of the Democratic Party: the [Raise the Wage Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/582/cosponsors?searchResultViewType=expanded&KWICView=false), which includes a $15 minimum wage, has 205 cosponsors in the House, all Democratic (and cleared the House in the 116th Congress). If Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024 in nominal US dollars per hour? The minimum wage will be decided by the [US...
-# Forecasts: 183
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. About [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. Dates of note --- For climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231) . --- The coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. --- The newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). --- This year, the federal government [funded a feasibility...
-# Forecasts: 61
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4507/what-percentage-of-top-colleges-in-the-united-states-will-not-require-the-sat-or-act-for-freshman-admittance-by-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: On May 21st 2020, University of California (UC) president Janet Napolitano [proposed](https://regents.universityofcalifornia.edu/regmeet/may20/b4.pdf) that the UC system phase out the requirement of the popular standardized tests, the [SAT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAT) and the [ACT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACT_(test)) . Given that UC schools comprise [all five of the most applied to colleges](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/28/the-10-universities-that-receive-the-most-applications.html) in the United States, this move was seen by many as marking a transition in how college admission works in the United States. Scott Aaronson [wrote](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4816) on his blog, This is widely expected, probably correctly, to trigger a chain reaction, whereby one US university after the next will abandon standardized tests. As a result, admissions to the top US universities—and hence, most chances for social advancement in the US—will henceforth be based entirely on ...
-# Forecasts: 41
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/how-long-would-humanity-take-to-rebound-from-a-global-catastrophe/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: For reasons why there might ever be fewer than 100M humans, see the [Metaculus Ragnarok series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok) . An important question is, if most people die, whether humanity will recover, and how long it would take. Question: If there ever were fewer than 100M humans, how many years would it take for there to be more than 1B humans? Resolution details: ---Only humans in the observable universe count. ---"Humans" are creatures who at least one 2020 Metaculus user would judge are humans if they magically met them.
-# Forecasts: 136
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4518/how-many-billions-of-parameters-will-the-largest-machine-learning-model-trained-before-2030-have/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: I have already asked [whether there will be a machine learning model trained with 100 trillion parameters](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/) trained before 2026. We still have a way to go before reaching that milestone, but a day before writing this question, OpenAI published [a paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165) describing GPT-3, a 175 billion parameter transformer. This model is over an order of magnitude larger than the previous largest models, which had [roughly 17 billion](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) parameters. Physical constraints will eventually slow progress, but things can still get interesting before then. I ask, before 2030, how many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained have? Resolution is determined by some sort of reliable document, blog post, or paper, published anywhere...
-# Forecasts: 31
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operations?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4519/when-will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-begin-operations/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: A [Hyperloop](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop) is a proposed mode of passenger and freight transportation; the name was first used to describe an open-source [vactrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vactrain) design released by a joint team from Tesla and SpaceX in 2013. In essence, a Hyperloop is a sealed tube or series of tubes with low air pressure through which a pod carrying passengers or cargo may travel substantially free of drag. The Hyperloop could potentially convey people or objects at airliner or supersonic speeds while being substantially more energy efficient than existing commercial airliners. The [Hyperloop Alpha](https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_images/hyperloop-alpha.pdf) concept was first published in August 2013, proposing and examining a route running from the Los Angeles region to the San Francisco Bay Area, roughly following the Interstate 5 corridor. The Hyperloop genesis paper conceived of a Hyperloop system that would propel passengers a...
-# Forecasts: 63
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4524/will-the-us-conduct-a-nuclear-test-explosion-before-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 25%
-Description: [Trinity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)) was the first nuclear weapon test. The test was conducted above ground on July 16, 1945 on what is now known as the White Sands Missile Range. Since Trinity, over 2,000 nuclear tests have been [conducted](https://www.fastcompany.com/3049706/visualized-every-haunting-nuclear-bomb-detonation-since-1945) world wide. The US has conducted over 1,000 nuclear tests. The final test to be conducted by the US, code-name [Divder](https://www.ctbto.org/specials/testing-times/23-september-1992-last-us-nuclear-test), took place on September 23, 1992. Soon after, Gearge H. W. Bush [declared a moratorium](https://www.thereaganvision.org/u-s-nuclear-weapons-testing-moratorium/) on nuclear weapons testing. In 1996, the US signed the [Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty](https://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/comprehensive-nuclear-test-ban-treaty-ctbt/) which bans any type of nuclear explosion. To date, the treaty has not been rat...
-# Forecasts: 46
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 25%
-Description: The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia) The S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends? This question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030.
-# Forecasts: 113
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will there be fewer Kea parrots in 2030 than in 2020?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4544/will-there-be-fewer-kea-parrots-in-2030-than-in-2020/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 62%
-Description: Context ======= The kea is a species of large parrot in the family Nestoridae found in the forested and alpine regions of the South Island of New Zealand. According to the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, [there are roughly 4,000 live mature Kea parrots in the world](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358) . Question and Resolution ======================= Will there be fewer than 4,000 live mature Kea parrots, according to [IUCN Red List of Threatened Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358) at any point in the year 2030?
-# Forecasts: 35
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4549/will-george-church-receive-a-nobel-prize-in-any-category-before-the-end-of-2035/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 10%
-Description: According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Church_(geneticist)) : George Church is an American geneticist, molecular engineer, and chemist. He is the Robert Winthrop Professor of Genetics at Harvard Medical School, Professor of Health Sciences and Technology at Harvard and MIT, and a founding member of the Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering. Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035? This question resolves positively if George Church wins a Nobel Prize before 2035. Sharing a Nobel prize is sufficient for positive resolution.
-# Forecasts: 31
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will a technology replace screens?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4577/when-will-a-technology-replace-screens/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In 2017, the world spent $1,537 Billion on [cell phones](https://www.statista.com/statistics/263437/global-smartphone-sales-to-end-users-since-2007/), $105 Billion on [TVs](https://www.statista.com/statistics/461324/global-tv-market-sales/), $101 Billion on [Laptops and Tablets](https://fortunly.com/blog/lap-top-market-share/), and $27 Billion on [PC monitors and projectors](https://www.statista.com/outlook/15030300/100/pc-monitors-projectors/worldwide) . What do all of these have in common? Screens! The Average American Household has 7 [screens](https://variety.com/2019/digital/news/u-s-households-have-an-average-of-11-connected-devices-and-5g-should-push-that-even-higher-1203431225/) in their house. Screens have been with us for nearly a [century](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_set#Early_television) . But nothing lasts forever. This question asks, "When will a new technology, designed primarily for transmitting visual information outsell all existing technologies with sc...
-# Forecasts: 97
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What % of money held in all US DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4584/what--of-money-held-in-all-us-dafs-will-be-expropriated-by-2100/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This is a variation on [an older question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4328/will-a-total-sum-amounting-to-at-least-10-of-the-money-in-all-us-dafs-be-expropriated-by-2100/), with different wording to attempt to illuminate an alternative perspective. A [donor-advised fund](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donor-advised_fund) (DAF) is "a charitable giving vehicle administered by a public charity created to manage charitable donations on behalf of organizations, families, or individuals." The sponsoring organization of a fund—often a subsidiary of a brokerage firm such as [Fidelity Charitable](https://www.fidelitycharitable.org/) or [Schwab Charitable](https://www.schwabcharitable.org/public/charitable/home) —is a 501(c)(3) registered charity that accepts tax-deductible donations from the creator of the DAF. The creator can then make grant recommendations to the sponsoring organization. Sponsoring organizations legally own any donated money, and have no obligation to abide by grant re...
-# Forecasts: 24
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the global stock market achieve? The global stock market will be tracked using FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists by 2031. "Annual return" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is: Return should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Global inflation rates are to be taken from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG), or another similarly credible source if World Bank data is not available.
-# Forecasts: 98
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended by 2024?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4586/if-biden-becomes-president-will-the-sentencing-disparity-between-crack-and-powder-cocaine-be-ended-by-2024/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 59%
-Description: Currently, the threshold for a 5-year mandatory minimum sentence for possession of crack cocaine is 28g, [a factor of 18](https://www.vox.com/2015/8/5/9097307/mandatory-minimums-fair-sentencing-act) smaller than the 500g for powder cocaine, a figure given by the Fair Sentencing Act of 2010. This ratio is down from the 100:1 disparity from the [Anti-Drug Abuse Act of 1986](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Drug_Abuse_Act_of_1986) . This sentencing disparity has been criticised [as being racially motivated](https://www.aclu.org/other/cracks-system-20-years-unjust-federal-crack-cocaine-law) ; crack cocaine and powder cocaine are pharmacologically similar, though crack cocaine is more commonly used by African Americans and powder cocaine is more commonly used by whites. Joe Biden [has claimed](https://joebiden.com/justice/) he plans to end this federal sentencing disparity. If Joe Biden becomes president, will the amount in possession required to receive a federal drug trafficking penalty...
-# Forecasts: 38
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will Croatia adopt the euro?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4587/when-will-croatia-adopt-the-euro/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Croatia is obligated to switch from its current currency, the kuna, and [begin using the euro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatia_and_the_euro) as a consequence of its membership in the European Union. It was initially expected that Croatia would transition in 2019. At that time several criteria for entering the [eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone) were not yet met, so the expected entry date was pushed back. This question asks, When will Croatia adopt the euro? This question resolves positively on the date Croatia adopts the euro as its sole official currency. This information will be published by the [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries/member-countries/croatia_en) . It will also be reported in reputable media such as The Economist, Reuters, and Bloomberg. The question resolves ambiguously if Croatia is no longer a part of the EU or if the euro stops existing by that time.
-# Forecasts: 78
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: After many years of developing a human-rated vehicle, SpaceX recently [carried humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4505/when-will-the-spacex-demo-2-launch/) to the International Space Station on its Crew Dragon capsule atop its partially-reusable Falcon 9 rocket. SpaceX's [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) rocket is an under-development super heavy-lift launch vehicle, intended to be fully reusable and to carry humans to destinations throughout the Solar System. Although SpaceX has proven that it can successfully accomplish some aspects of this (reuse a rocket's core stage multiple times, carry humans in a spacecraft), there are further milestones to overcome (recover all stages of a rocket, build a rocket from stainless steel, etc.). When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit? Starship has undergone many design and name changes since its inception. Therefore, for the purposes of this question, "Starship" refers to any SpaceX vehicle, or prototype...
-# Forecasts: 127
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will we have a new Pope?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4606/when-will-we-have-a-new-pope/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: When the Pope dies [(or resigns)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resignation_of_Pope_Benedict_XVI), the Cardinals of the Cathlic Church convene a [Papal Conclave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papal_conclave) to elect the Pope's successor. This mysterious procedure culminates in the [fumata](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papal_conclave#The_fumata_(smoke)), traditionally the burning of the ballots. Black smoke indicates that the ballot was inconclusive, while white smoke indicates that [a new Pope has been elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habemus_papam) . This question resolves as the first date and time (after question launch, before 2036-12-17) at which white smoke is emitted from the building in which a Papal Conclave is meeting. If the Catholic Church or Papacy dissolves during or in the wake of Pope Francis' papacy, question resolves ambiguous. However, if both institutions are remain effectively intact, this question closes on 2036-12-17 (Pope Francis' 100th birthday). Should...
-# Forecasts: 90
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: In 2024, what percentage of surveyed Americans will report say that conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are "very strong"?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4608/in-2024-what-percentage-of-surveyed-americans-will-report-say-that-conflicts-between-democrats-and-republicans-are-very-strong/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: For decades Pew Research has [reported](https://www.pewresearch.org/topics/political-polarization/) on political polarization in the United States. Since 2012, they have surveyed Americans to gauge the perceived conflict between different groups in the United States. Among the compared groups, Democrats and Republicans are consistently perceived to have the highest level of conflict, and this perception has risen over time. In 2012, the conflict between Democrats and Republicans was perceived to be "very strong" by 48% of those surveyed. In 2016, it was 56%. By 2020, it [had risen](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/03/04/far-more-americans-see-very-strong-partisan-conflicts-now-than-in-the-last-two-presidential-election-years/) to 71%. If Pew Research publishes a report for 2024, what percentage of those surveyed will report that the conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are "very strong"? If no such report is published in 2024 by Pew Research, then this question resolv...
-# Forecasts: 33
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will directly removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere be economically feasible?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4614/when-will-directly-removing-carbon-dioxide-from-the-atmosphere-be-economically-feasible/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Many efforts to reduce the effects of climate change are focused on reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the various sectors that contribute to them, for example electricity/heat production, agriculture, transportation, and industrial uses. In most of these sectors, there are "low-hanging fruit": certain emissions that can be removed with existing technology, sometimes even saving money in the process. For example, solar and wind energy are now often cheaper than coal, and electric cars can be cost-competitive with gasoline cars in some contexts. On the other hand, there are many processes which generate CO2 that do not currently viable zero-emissions replacements, such as steel/concrete production or passenger airlines. One way to make progress on CO2 reductions in spite of this would be to [directly capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_air_capture) CO2 from the air and store it, so that on balance, no additional CO2 is added to the atmosphere. Unfortunately, current projec...
-# Forecasts: 46
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4615/what-annual-real-return-will-the-sp-500-realize-2022-2031/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the S&P 500 index achieve? "Annual return" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is: Return should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Inflation rates to be determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index.
-# Forecasts: 126
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will US life expectancy at birth for both sexes fall below 75 years before 2040?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4616/will-us-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-fall-below-75-years-before-2040/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 13%
-Description: According to the United Nations Development Program's [2019 Human Development Index](http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/2019-human-development-index-ranking), the average life expectancy at birth in the US (both sexes, average) is 78.9 years. [Life expectancy in the US has increased by just under a decade since 1950, when it was 68.14 years.](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/life-expectancy) However, in the last few years, [life expectancy has actually declined slightly in the US.](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/11/us-life-expectancy-keeps-falling/576664/) Contributing factors include obesity and related diseases, opioid abuse, and suicides. This question asks: Before January 1 2040, will US life expectancy at birth (average for both sexes) fall below 75 years, according to the CDC, World Health Organization, or the United Nations? Only one of these organizations need credibly report that the US life expectancy has fallen below 75 for a positive res...
-# Forecasts: 106
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4628/will-one-of-givewells-2019-top-charities-be-estimated-as-the-most-cost-effective-charity-in-2031/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 30%
-Description: [GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a "cost per life saved" metric to compare them on. While they warn against [taking these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be. GiveWell usually updates its list of top charities on an annual basis. Will the most cost-effective charity on GiveWell's 2031 list, according to GiveWell's "cost per life saved" metric, be a charity that also appeared on the 2019 list of top charities? GiveWell's [2019 top charities](https://blog.givewell.org/2019/11/26/announcing-our-2019-top-c...
-# Forecasts: 41
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4630/will-metaculus-inc-host-a-prediction-market-prior-to-2024/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 30%
-Description: According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus), Metaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. Will Metaculus Inc. launch a prediction market for binary questions prior to Jan 1st, 2024? This question resolves positively if all of the following occur: --- Metaculus hosts a system whereby participants can both buy and sell an instrument whose payout depends on the outcome of a binary question ------For Metaculus to host such a system, the system must be operated and maintained principally by Metaculus Inc. or any of its subsidiaries --- The payout is monetary or readily convert-able into cash (including cryptocurrency, or points/tokens that can be converted to cash) --- An individual could trade instruments valued at $50 or more (in 2020 USD) within a 24-hour window at some point prior to 2024 If Metaculus is acquired or merges with another company before 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.
-# Forecasts: 51
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4633/oil-consumption-rebounds-no-sooner-than-2026/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 30%
-Description: Pre-covid, several [forecasters](https://carbontracker.org/reports/2020-vision-why-you-should-see-the-fossil-fuel-peak-coming/) expected peak oil consumption to be in the 2020s. Now, in light of plummeting 2020 consumption, [several energy forecasters](https://carbontracker.org/was-2019-the-peak-of-the-fossil-fuel-era/) have concluded that perhaps the peak was 2019. According to the EIA, [2019 usage was 100.87 mb/day](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php) (under total world consumption of petroleum and other liquids). Will oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019? This question will resolve positively if no year in 2020-2025 (inclusive) has greater oil consumption than 2019 according to the EIA. It will resolve negatively if any of those 6 years has greater consumption. It will resolve ambiguous if the EIA does not post consumption data for 2025 by the end of 2026, and no comparably authoritative source can be found (for which that source's 20...
-# Forecasts: 150
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644/if-labour-wins-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later? This question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Labour or a coalition with Labour making up a majority of seats. Resolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales) . As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year. See also: [If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645)
-# Forecasts: 38
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645/if-conservatives-win-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later? This question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Conservatives or a coalition with Conservatives making up a majority of seats. Resolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales) . As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year. See also: [If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644)
-# Forecasts: 40
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4646/what-will-total-enrollment-for-recent-us-high-school-graduates-be-in-us-colleges-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: College enrollment of recent high school graduates, both online and in-person, shows how many students choose to pursue higher education as an option after graduation. This both reflects the desire to participate in higher education, as well as the economic and social means of American families to do so. The percentage of recent high school graduates enrolled in college represents enrollment in both four-year and two-year institutions, and shows the percentage of students ages 16-24 who enrolled in US colleges before October of that year who have completed either high school or the equivalent GED certification. In 2018, the number in thousands of high school graduates was 3,212, with the total percentage enrolled in college at 69.1%. In 2009, during the great recession, total enrollment bumped upwards to over 70%. This questions asks: What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021? The total enrollment in all college programs at all college le...
-# Forecasts: 104
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4665/when-will-ninja-first-lose-the-top-spot-as-the-most-followed-account-on-twitch/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The video live-streaming service [Twitch](https://www.twitch.tv/) is primarily used for streaming liveplay of video games. In fact, all 50 of the currently most-followed accounts are video-game streamers, with Fortnite being the most common title played by streamers. The user who currently has the most followers, Ninja, stopped using the platform on August 1, 2019 in order to move to the platform [Mixer.](https://mixer.com/) He still has 14.7m followers on Twitch, despite not having posted a video since then. This question asks: When will a Twitch user have more followers than Ninja? Question resolves as the first time at which the most-followed account on Twitch is someone other than Ninja. If Ninja’s account is deleted from Twitch, the question will resolve as the time of deletion. This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer.
-# Forecasts: 149
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the XENON1T experiment soon report a detection of dark matter or other new physics?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4670/will-the-xenon1t-experiment-soon-report-a-detection-of-dark-matter-or-other-new-physics/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 30%
-Description: A major goal of eperimental particle physics and cosmology is to identify the [dark matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_matter) pervading the universe. Foremost candidates for this matter are [WIMPS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weakly_interacting_massive_particles) and [axions](https://www.quantamagazine.org/why-dark-matter-might-be-axions-20191127/) . An ongoing test for WIMP-nucleon scattering is [XENON1T](http://www.xenon1t.org/) in Italy, with a much higher sensitivity than [preceding experiments](http://www.nature.com/news/largest-ever-dark-matter-experiment-poised-to-test-popular-theory-1.18772) ; this dark matter detector is essentially a 3500 kilogram target of liquid Xenon sandwiched between two arrays of photomultiplier tubes. The arrays detect signals from scintillation and electron drift generated from particles scattering off Xenon nuclei, at which point known [backgrounds](http://arxiv.org/abs/1512.07501) will be subtracted out to get the WIMP signal. Recently, ...
-# Forecasts: 40
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the Chinese state have collected 1 billion unique genomes from their population?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4676/when-will-the-chinese-state-have-collected-1-billion-unique-genomes-from-their-population/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [New York Times](https://archive.vn/QxmYS#selection-369.0-369.13) (June 17, 2020) has an article on how the Chinese state is collecting a massive genomic database of 700 million men (full population coverage). This is used in order to fight crime, so far resulting in captures of otherwise elusive criminals (similar to in the USA, e.g. [Golden State Killer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_State_Killer)). The database will also present the Chinese government with enormous statistical power for genomics research that could be used to train very accurate genomic prediction models for medical and eugenic purposes (artificial selection). British intelligence researcher [Richard Lynn speculated already back in 2001](https://www.amazon.com/Eugenics-Reassessment-Evolution-Behavior-Intelligence/dp/0275958221) that China would pursue such eugenic technology in the first half of the 21st century. In 2018, Chinese researcher He Jiankui [caused a shockwave when it was revealed](https://archive....
-# Forecasts: 23
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4677/in-2031-will-at-least-90-of-open-philanthropy-project-grant-money-be-directed-using-effective-altruist-principles/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 71%
-Description: [The Open Philanthropy Project](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) makes charitable grants based on what could be described as [effective altruist principles](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/about/vision-and-values) : "global humanitarianism", "risk tolerance and patience", and "action in the face of humanity". More broadly, the justification for a grant could be considered to fall under "effective altruist principles" if it is made due to a belief that it represents among the best uses of money for improving the world, without regard to favoring a particular group, nation, species, etc., and without regard to the grantmaker's personal connection to or feelings about the cause. In the year 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grants, on a dollar-weighted basis, be directed according to these principles? The question can be judged using Open Phil's grant writups ([example](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/biosecurity/center-for-population...
-# Forecasts: 27
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4678/will-at-least-one-us-state-secede-from-the-union-before-31-december-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 3%
-Description: The United States of America has in the past acquired new territories, such as the [Alaskan purchase of 1867](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Purchase), and the purchase of the [former Danish West Indies in 1917](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_West_Indies) . Sometimes territories have changed status, such as when [Hawaii became a state in 1959](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Admission_Act) . However, no state has so far left the union without a civil war ensuing and eventually causing its [reintegration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War) . However, there are currently active secessionist movements in several US states, some which have appreciable levels of support. A 2014 poll showed that [58% of Alaskans favored a secession from the union](https://www.unz.com/anepigone/support-for-secession-by-state/) . Will a US state agree to leave the union before end of 2030? The question resolves in the affirmative if any US state leave the union. Resolution deta...
-# Forecasts: 92
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the population size of India surpass the population size of China?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4680/when-will-the-population-size-of-india-surpass-the-population-size-of-china/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: You can find the (estimated) real-time population size of India [here](https://countrymeters.info/en/India), and the real-time population size of China [here](https://countrymeters.info/en/China) . On what date will India show a higher population count than China?
-# Forecasts: 186
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Donald Trump is reelected president?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4688/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-donald-trump-is-reelected-president/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: What will the real GDP per capita of the United States be (in 2020 dollars) in 2024 if Donald Trump is elected president in the 2020 USA presidential election? This question resolves to the real annual GDP per capita of the United States for 2024, according to [FRED's Real gross domestic product per capita dataset](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA) (converted into 2019 USD, using [FRED's delfator series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPDEF#0)). If Donald Trump is not elected for any reason, question resolves ambiguously. Note that the question resolves positively, even if Donald Trump does not serve the full duration of his term (for example if he never assumes office). This is is part of a pair of questions along with a similar question about [Joe Biden](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4689/what-will-the-real-gdpcaptia-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-joe-biden-is-elected-president/) inspired by [this post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qZXy8kGkNFyqCfHEJ/you-can-...
-# Forecasts: 88
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will The Boring Company tunnel faster than a snail?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4692/when-will-the-boring-company-tunnel-faster-than-a-snail/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [The Boring Company](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boring_Company) is a company that constructs and operates tunnel boring machines (TBMs), with the aim of substantially improving the speed and cost of tunnel boring. The tunnels are initially being proposed for use in train-like transport between fixed stops, but The Boring Company's stated long-term goal is to establish a vast tunnel network similar to current road networks. It was established in 2016 by Elon Musk and SpaceX employees, after Musk became frustrated at Los Angeles traffic. Apparently, typical TBMs can tunnel through the earth at a sustained rate of [60 feet](https://www.quora.com/How-fast-can-a-tunnel-boring-machine-drill-under-good-conditions-How-does-it-go-that-fast) (18 m) per day. Recently, The Boring Company completed its [second tunnel](https://twitter.com/boringcompany/status/1261078175234191360) in Las Vegas. As the second 0.8-mile tunnel was supposedly started after the first one was finished on [February 1...
-# Forecasts: 105
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of US$?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4694/what-will-gross-world-product-be-in-2047-in-trillions-of-us/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In [Modeling the Human Trajectory](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/default/files/Modeling-the-human-trajectory.pdf), David Roodman introduces an internally consistent statistical model of world economic history. It casts a Gross World Product (GWP) series as a sample path whose specification is a stochastic calculus-based growth model. Their univariate fit implies that, conditional on the 2019 GWP, explosion to infinity is essentially inevitable. It finds a median explosion date of 2047. As of 2018, GWP was $82 trillion in 2010 US$. What will real Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of 2020 US$? Real Gross World Product is determined by a reliable source of global economic data, such as [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD) .
-# Forecasts: 112
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the total expenditures of the United Nations System in 2050?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4696/what-will-be-the-total-expenditures-of-the-united-nations-system-in-2050/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ======= In 2018, the [United Nations System](https://www.unsystem.org/content/un-system) (the United Nations and its six principal organs) spent approximately 52.78 billion USD on its various operations, as [reported in the CEB Financial Statistics database](https://www.unsceb.org/content/FS-F00-05?gyear=2018) . Question ======== What will the total expenditures of the United Nations System be for the year 2050, in billions of US dollars? Resolution ========== Resolution is through any of the following sources, in descending order of priority: ---A report from the Chief Executives Board for Coordination ---A report from another body of the United Nations ---A statement by a United Nations spokesperson ---A report by another credible source If the United Nations does not exist as an organization in 2050, this question resolves as 0. If the United Nations reports its expenditures in a currency other than United States dollars, and the United States dollar is still an int...
-# Forecasts: 12
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric by 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4701/what-percentage-of-vehicles-on-us-roads-will-be-fully-electric-by-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ======= In 2018 there were just over 1 million electric vehicles on American roads, a milestone for the industry that took eight years to arrive at. As EV popularity and manufacturing capacity trend upward, the [Edison Electric Institute](https://www.edisonfoundation.net/en/publications/publications?category=Report) [predicts](https://www.edisonfoundation.net/-/media/Files/IEI/publications/IEI_EEI-EV-Forecast-Report_Nov2018.ashx) the jump to the next million US EV’s will only require three years, expecting that number to climb to 18.7 million by 2030. With [273.6 million vehicles](https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/#:~:text=How%20many%20registered%20motor%20vehicles,at%206.3%20million%20in%202016.) registered in the US in 2018, EV’s then represented .36% of the vehicles on the road. The Edison Institute predicts that number will rise to 7% by 2030. Many electric vehicle batteries rely on lithium to run, and analysts ar...
-# Forecasts: 50
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4719/when-will-us-domestic-passenger-air-travel-return-to-80-of-pre-covid-19-volumes/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ======= Following the outbreak of COVID-19 in the US in February 2020, a series of [international travel restrictions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic#Non-global_restrictions) and statewide [stay-at-home orders](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-map-stay-at-home-orders-lockdowns-2020-3) were put in place. The [impact on the aviation industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_on_aviation) has been severe. According to [Conde Nast Traveler](https://www.cntraveler.com/story/coronavirus-air-travel-these-numbers-show-the-massive-impact-of-the-pandemic) : On April 7, the total amount of U.S. fliers [screened by the TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput) fell below 100,000 for the first time in the agency’s history. That’s a 95 percent drop compared to the passenger numbers from the same day in 2019, when 2,091,056 people passed through the checkpoints. Experts say the majority of tho...
-# Forecasts: 75
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will US auto manufacturing recover to 80% of pre-COVID-19 production levels?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4721/when-will-us-auto-manufacturing-recover-to-80-of-pre-covid-19-production-levels/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ======= The automotive industry directly employs hundreds of thousands of people in the US, and indirectly affects the jobs of millions more through a complex and globally integrated supply chain. In February 2020, the Bureau of Economic Analysis [reports](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/table3.htm) US automakers produced 11.4M cars and trucks, consistent with the average production rate of 11.5M cars and trucks per month between 2015-2019. In March, that number fell to 7.2M, and in April it cratered to 176,000. In early May, news outlets began [reporting](https://www.npr.org/2020/05/04/850107160/u-s-automakers-are-slowly-rolling-toward-a-restart) small numbers of plant re-openings, as manufacturers prepared to resume operations with coronavirus protective measures in place. The first of the three biggest US automakers to make its move, Toyota began it’s reopening process on May 11, with [13 assembly plants](https://www.expressnews.com/business/local/artic...
-# Forecasts: 52
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4736/will-the-nyt-end-up-publishing-any-articles-mentioning-ssc-or-sa-in-the-next-year/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 57.99999999999999%
-Description: Will the New York Times end up publishing any articles mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander between 2020-07-01 and 2021-07-01? We already have a Metaculus prediction about [if/when such an article is published it will include his full name](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4697/short-fuse-given-that-the-nyt-publishes-an-article-on-scott-alexander-will-it-include-his-full-name/) . However, that question very much depends on this one, whether they will go ahead with any article in the first place. Since if they are only 1% likely to go ahead then it might be moot whether the name would be included. It doesn't have to be the currently anticipated article by the currently anticipated NYT author in the currently anticipated topic. Any author's NYT-published article in any topic that mentions either him or his blog is eligible to resolve this question positively. This question resolves positively if any time between 2020-07-01 00:01 UTC and 2021-07-01 00:01 UTC any article is pu...
-# Forecasts: 534
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4737/when-will-the-covid-19-epidemic-subside-in-russia/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: According to [World Health Organization data](https://covid19.who.int/explorer), there have been 667.9 thousand total cases of COVID-19 in the Russian Federation. Russia now has the third highest number of infections in the world, after the United States and Brazil. The [7-day total of new infections](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru) in Russia peaked on the 7 days up to May 12, at 76,873, and is now at 46,869. When will the 7-day total of new cases in Russia drop below 1000? This question resolves positive when the [WHO Russian Federation situation page](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru), or the latest WHO [situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports), indicates that there have been <1000 confirmed cases in Russia in the last 7 days (i.e. 143 per day). If WHO situation reports are not available, admins may choose another international data source, or resolve ambiguous, based on their best judgment. ...
-# Forecasts: 227
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 44%
-Description: Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states) . On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. There are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases. Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases? The question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the...
-# Forecasts: 300
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4742/will-mount-rushmore-be-intentionally-destroyed-or-modified-before-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 5%
-Description: [New York Times published an article on 1st July 2020](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/us/mount-rushmore.html) reporting on the history of the famous [Mount Rushmore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Rushmore) in South Dakota. [Their tweet announcing the article says](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1278387954440904704) "Mount Rushmore was built on land that belonged to the Lakota tribe and sculpted by a man who had strong bonds with the Ku Klux Klan. It features the faces of 2 U.S. presidents who were slaveholders.". Considering the many recent removals of statues in the USA ([especially of persons related to the Confederate states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials)) and elsewhere (e.g. [in the UK](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53194684)) in recent months, it seems within reason that some kind of action against Mount Rushmore might be taken. Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025? Th...
-# Forecasts: 138
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 62%
-Description: PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware. [PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations. [Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20...
-# Forecasts: 24
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4763/will-there-be-a-g4-ea-h1n1-flu-virus-pandemic-before-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 2%
-Description: In June 2020, [a new strain of flu that has the potential to become a pandemic was identified in China by scientists.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-53218704) According to the BBC: It emerged recently and is carried by pigs, but can infect humans, they say. The researchers are concerned that it could mutate further so that it can spread easily from person to person, and trigger a global outbreak. The virus, which the researchers call G4 EA H1N1, can grow and multiply in the cells that line the human airways. They found evidence of recent infection in people who worked in abattoirs and the swine industry in China when they looked at data from 2011 to 2018. Current flu vaccines do not appear to protect against it, although they could be adapted to do so if needed. The virus is related to the H1N1/09 strain responsible for the 2009 swine flu pandemic, and also distantly to the strain which caused the 1918 flu pandemic (both are H1N1 flu strains). [A peer-reviewed paper from the ...
-# Forecasts: 60
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 1%
-Description: Context Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. This question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021? Resolution Criteria This question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the ...
-# Forecasts: 1197
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4774/will-scott-morrison-be-prime-minister-of-australia-on-1-july-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 96%
-Description: Australia's parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the ruling Prime Minister outside of an election. Australia's recent political history has also been characterised by frequent ' [leadership spills](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_spill) '. In the last 13 years, there have been four successful leadership spills by the party in government, and [five separate Prime Ministers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Australia) . In late 2019 and early 2020, Scott Morrison (the Prime Minister of Australia at the time of writing) saw a number of challenges to his popular approval, including controversy over [a trip to Hawaii](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/21/scott-morrison-hawaii-horror-show-pr-disaster-unfolded) during a catastrophic bushfire season. Since the last election, at least one [poll](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll) indicates that the two ma...
-# Forecasts: 128
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will more than two nuclear weapons in total have been detonated as an act of war by 2050?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/will-more-than-two-nuclear-weapons-in-total-have-been-detonated-as-an-act-of-war-by-2050/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 20%
-Description: In the last 75 years, two nuclear weapons have been detonated as an act of war; the [bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki) in 1945, at the end of WWII. Despite tensions being high between the US and the USSR during the Cold War, and [several close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls), there have been no additional nuclear weapons detonated as acts of war. Currently, estimated nuclear weapon stockpiles are 15,000 warheads worldwide, mostly in the US and Russia, and there are eight or nine states that possess nuclear weapons (China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, India, North Korea, Pakistan, and [Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel) which remains officially ambiguous). The use of these nuclear weapons [could be catastrophic](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due...
-# Forecasts: 88
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: While cryopreservation using fixatives is available, how many times more likely will someone be to be revived by 2200 if they are cryopreserved using fixatives than without?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4780/while-cryopreservation-using-fixatives-is-available-how-many-times-more-likely-will-someone-be-to-be-revived-by-2200-if-they-are-cryopreserved-using-fixatives-than-without/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The [Large Mammal BPF Prize](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) was won in 2018 by a technique called Aldehyde-Stabilized Cryopreservation. ASC uses glutaraldehyde to crosslink the brain's proteins in place; this removes the possibility of restoration of biological function, but protects the tissue from decay due to autolysis or putrefaction. Glutaraldehyde fixation is currently used in neuroscience to prepare brain tissue for electron microscopic and immunofluorescent examination. Alcor, a major cryonics provider, is skeptical of fixatives and does not currently offer ASC. [Ralph Merkle, writing for Alcor, writes](https://alcor.org/Library/html/does-cryonics-offer-false-hope.html) : Rather obviously, if you want to cryopreserve someone you’d rather not perfuse them with glutaraldehyde. It’s a fixative. On the other hand, if you don’t use glutaraldehyde, then you’re going to get dehydration and shrinkage, which means you won’t get the pretty pictures that neu...
-# Forecasts: 23
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4783/if-the-nyt-publishes-an-article-mentioning-slate-star-codex-or-scott-alexander-by-july-2021-will-it-include-his-full-name/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 85%
-Description: On June 22nd, Scott Alexander took down the blog Slate Star Codex due to an in-progress article by a technology reporter from the New York Times, replacing it with [a post](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/06/22/nyt-is-threatening-my-safety-by-revealing-my-real-name-so-i-am-deleting-the-blog/) explaining his rationale. According to Alexander, the journalist was going to publish Scott's real name in association with his blog in this article, as part of a general NYT policy of including real names in articles. While [no article was published within two weeks](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4697/short-fuse-given-that-the-nyt-publishes-an-article-on-scott-alexander-will-it-include-his-full-name/) of this, the Metaculus community median currently assigns a high probability that some article mentioning the topic [will be released by July 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4736/will-the-nyt-end-up-publishing-any-articles-mentioning-ssc-or-sa-in-the-next-year/) . If the NYT publish...
-# Forecasts: 382
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: What percentage of people cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4785/what-percentage-of-people-cryopreserved-between-2020-and-2050-will-be-revived-by-2200/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: As of 2019, over 400 people have been cryopreserved ([175 at Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/AboutAlcor/membershipstats.html), [183 at the Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/case-reports/), [71 at KrioRus](https://kriorus.ru/en/cryopreserved%20people)), and many more people are members of cryonics organisations with arrangements to be cryopreserved after their deaths. Cryopreservation currently involves replacing blood with a cryoprotectant and slowly cooling down a body to liquid nitrogen temperatures for long-term storage. The hope is that this preserves enough of the structure of the brain that, with advanced enough future technology, revival will eventually be possible. Chances of revival may also be increasing over time, as [cryopreservation techniques become better](https://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/cryonics.html) and the institutional knowledge to get people cryopreserved sooner after death develops. I thus ask to what extent revival will be possible for people preserved in t...
-# Forecasts: 35
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 70%
-Description: [Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by. Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)? An anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years. For the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects. This question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virt...
-# Forecasts: 74
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will a universal flu vaccine be available?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4791/when-will-a-universal-flu-vaccine-be-available/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Although there is a vaccine against influenza, the influenza virus' rapid mutation rate means that the vaccine must be [reformulated each year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#Vaccination) in order to protect against the strains that are expected to be most common. The inconvenience of getting a flu vaccine every year may contribute to low flu vaccination coverage (roughly [37% of adults in the US](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/coverage-1718estimates.htm) in 2017). Furthermore, unlike many other vaccines, the flu vaccine is far from a guarantee of protection, with effectiveness as low as [40%](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/2019-2020.html), partially because the vaccine only covers the three or four most common strains. For at least a decade, various groups such as [BiondVax](http://www.biondvax.com/) and [Distributed Bio](https://www.distributedbio.com/centivax) have been working on a universal flu vaccine, which would not need to be reformulated each year. A highl...
-# Forecasts: 63
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the mass of the next fundamental particle to be discovered be, in eV?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4794/what-will-the-mass-of-the-next-fundamental-particle-to-be-discovered-be-in-ev/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In 2012, the [Higgs boson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Higgs_boson) was discovered by the Large Hadron Collider with a mass of eV. This observation of the Higgs completed the [Standard Model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_Model), of which the Higgs mechanism was an important theoretical but experimentally unobserved part. There remain unexplained facts about physics and [theoretical difficulties with current models of physics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physics_beyond_the_Standard_Model) that might be explained by the introduction of new fundamental particles. One popular extension to the standard model is [supersymmetry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supersymmetry), which predicts that each particle has a heavier supersymmetric partner. There are proposals for larger particle accelerators that could probe collisions at higher energies, such as the [Future Circular Collider](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_Circular_Collider) which, if constructed, would have a center...
-# Forecasts: 36
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4796/states-with-legal-psilocybin-by-2045/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: For a historical comparison, the first initiative proposing legalization of cannabis was in Calfornia in 1972. In 1996, California became the [first state to legalize medical use of cannabis.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_in_California) Key figures involved in initiating the "war on drugs" have admitted they [lied](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) about important aspects of why that was initiated. Psilocybin is part of a family of substances illegal in a large majority of countries despite claims of substantial potential [benefits](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) from a growing number of physicians and scientists. If the US starts to move towards the legalization of psilocybin, this may be seen as an important [battle](https://voicesofdemocracy.umd.edu/buchanan-culture-war-speech-speech-text/) in the ["Culture War"](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/the-cannabis-culture-wars/) going o...
-# Forecasts: 27
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU), climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020. Tesla's stock price continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2020, despite CEO Musk tweeting on May 1 ["Tesla stock price is too high imo."](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184) As of July 12 2020, Tesla's stock is valued at $1,545 per share, and its market capitalization is $286.33 billion - [making Tesla more valuable than Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen combined](https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1281679937410404352), and [making Elon Musk richer than Warren Buffett.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/elon-musk-rockets-past-warren-buffett-on-billio...
-# Forecasts: 63
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin), born 7 October 1952, is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, previously holding the position from 1999 until 2008. He was also the Prime Minister of Russia from 1999 to 2000 and again from 2008 to 2012. Under Putin's leadership, Russia has experienced democratic backsliding. Experts do not generally consider Russia to be a democracy, citing jailing of political opponents, curtailed press freedom, and the lack of free and fair elections. Russia has scored poorly on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index and Freedom House's Freedom in the World index (including a record low 20/100 rating in the 2017 Freedom in the World report, a rating not given since the time of the Soviet Union). Human rights organizations and activists accuse Putin of persecuting political critics and activ...
-# Forecasts: 107
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php) . See [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority, 1-- The national government of the nation widely recognized to have been most impacte...
-# Forecasts: 105
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: As of July 1st, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4815/as-of-july-1st-2022-when-will-top-forecasters-expect-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-to-be-developed-and-demonstrated/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Artificial general intelligence is a hypothetical machine system that has the capacity to learn and perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. Judging by [existing](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) on the topic, artificial general intelligence is unlikely to arrive soon, and we will therefore receive little direct feedback on our ability to forecast questions related to its development. One thing we can do to to achieve tighter feedback loops is to make forecasts about future forecasts. These future forecasts will integrate evidence that is currently inaccessible. Forecasts about forecasts inclines us to explicitly think about how our evidence about when we will have artificial general intelligence will likely evolve over time. What will be the ...
-# Forecasts: 110
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4816/will-derek-chauvin-be-acquitted-of-all-murder-charges/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 71%
-Description: Derek Chauvin [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin), an American former police officer charged with the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020. During an arrest made by Chauvin and three other officers, he knelt on George Floyd's neck for almost eight minutes while Floyd was handcuffed and lying face down on a street. The death set off a series of protests around the world. Chauvin was fired by the Minneapolis Police Department the day after the incident. He was initially charged with third-degree murder and second-degree manslaughter; a charge of second-degree murder was later added. Some have suggested that he will be acquitted of his murder charges. From [a Medium post](https://medium.com/@gavrilodavid/why-derek-chauvin-may-get-off-his-murder-charge-2e2ad8d0911), There are six crucial pieces of information — six facts — that have been largely omitted from discussion on the Chauvin’s conduct. Taken together, they likely exonerate the officer of...
-# Forecasts: 489
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4821/will-ea-global-london-2021-be-cancelled-rescheduled-or-moved-online/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 74%
-Description: [Effective Altruism Global](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_Altruism_Global), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2021](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/london2020/) is scheduled to be held in London, UK from to 30 April 2021 to 2 May 2021. In 2020, EA Global conferences in London and San Francisco were both cancelled due to COVID-19. Will EA Global: London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online? The question resolves negatively if the EA Global London 2021 takes place in the originally scheduled physical location at the scheduled dates. It resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or if the venue is moved online or away from London. Note that resolution does not require COVID-19 — or anything else — to be cited as a reason for any changes to the event. There were 2 previous questions on 2020 EA Global conferences (which — unlike this question — aske...
-# Forecasts: 121
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 66%
-Description: Wirecard uncovered a €1.9bn hole in its balance sheet in June 2020. The company had faced accusations for some time that it has been engaged in accounting fraud. More details can be found here: --- [https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df…](https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df-a075-0709b36868db) --- [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal) Markus Braun, Oliver Bellenhaus have been arrested by German prosecutors. Alexander von Knoop and Susanne Steidl are under investigation. Jan Marsalek is a fugitive with an active arrest warrant. This question resolves true if any senior Wirecard executives are given a custodial sentence for crimes relating to fraud at Wirecard. This list includes: ---Markus Braun ---Jan Marsalek ---Alexander von Knoop ---Susanne Steidl ---Jan Marsalek ---Oliver Bellenhaus The imprisonment must be as a result of a conviction, pre-trial detainment will count if the court uses it as part of...
-# Forecasts: 35
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the global fertility rate be in 2050?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The age-specific fertility rate is the number of children born per woman per year for women at a specified age. Integrating over a lifetime gives a metric called the [total fertility rate](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#data-quality-definition), which is the average number of children that a woman would have if all the age-specific fertility rates stayed constant. Globally, the total fertility rate was [2.49 children per woman](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#50-years-ago-the-average-woman-had-five-children-since-then-the-number-has-halved) in 2015, down from 5.05 in 1950. This large decline is part of what is known as the [demographic transition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition) from high birth rates and high child mortality to low birth rates and low child mortality. The causes of this include more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception. A [recent study](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521) by researc...
-# Forecasts: 25
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) is an ongoing global pandemic of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of July 15, 2020, [more than 13.3 million cases have been confirmed globally, 3.43 million of which in the United States](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data) . On March 13, 2020, Trump [declared a National Emergency concerning the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-declaring-national-emergency-concerning-novel-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outbreak/) . This question resolves as the date on which the seven-day [simple moving average](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average#Simple_moving_average) of d...
-# Forecasts: 220
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the VIX index fall below 20?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4833/when-will-the-vix-index-fall-below-20/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The CBOE’s Volatility Index ($VIX), also known as the ‘fear index’, measures expected 30-day volatility in the US stock market. VIX represents the expected range of the S&P 500 at a 68% confidence level — a VIX of 20 represents the expectation of annualized price movement in the next 30 days of <20%, equivalent to a 30 day movement of (20% ÷ √12 =) ±5.77%. Between 2004 and 2019, the average closing price of the VIX was 18.2. Having opened 2020 at 13.46, it spiked substantially during the COVID sell-off in March, reaching an all-time intraday high of 85.5 on March 18th, then falling to its current value of 28.00. A full series of VIX prices since its 2002 inception is available [here](http://www.cboe.com/products/vix-index-volatility/vix-options-and-futures/vix-index/vix-historical-data) . Live-updated chart [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX) . The question will resolve on the first date that the closing price of VIX is below 20.0, as per the CBOE's daily updated [csv...
-# Forecasts: 234
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the VIX index climb above 50?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4834/when-will-the-vix-index-climb-above-50/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The CBOE’s Volatility Index ($VIX), also known as the ‘fear index’, measures expected 30-day volatility in the US stock market. It represents the expected range of the S&P 500 at a 68% confidence level — a VIX of 20 represents the expectation of annualized price movement in the next 30 days of <20%, or 30-day movement of (20 ÷ √12=) ± 5.77%. Between 2004 and 2019, the average closing price of the VIX was 18.2. Having opened 2020 at 13.46, it spiked substantially during the COVID sell-off in March, reaching an all-time intraday high of 85.5 on March 18th, then falling to its current value of 28.00. A full series of VIX prices since its 2002 inception is available [here](http://www.cboe.com/products/vix-index-volatility/vix-options-and-futures/vix-index/vix-historical-data) . Live-updated chart [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX) . The question will resolve on the first date that the closing price of VIX is above 50.0, as per the daily updated [csv file](http://www.cboe...
-# Forecasts: 90
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4836/will-chinas-tianwen-1-rover-successfully-land-on-mars/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 68%
-Description: China's [Tianwen-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianwen-1) mission is expected to launch in late July of 2020. It consists of an orbiter, lander and rover. This question asks: "Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?" The question resolves positive if the rover lands successfully and is able to travel at least 30 meters on the surface of Mars after landing and will resolve positive based off of credible media reporting that this has happened. The question will resolve negatively if a mission identified as Tianwen-1 fails for any reason (explodes at launch, fails to survive descent to Mars surface, unable to establish communication, rover does not travel at least 30 meters and is unable to move further) based off of credible media reporting that this has happened. The question resolves ambiguously if no mission identified as Tianwen-1 attempts to launch before December 31st, 2023.
-# Forecasts: 103
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4841/when-will-blue-origin-send-a-paying-customer-to-space/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon and [the world's richest human](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World's_Billionaires#2020), has invested significant resources in his aerospace company [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com/) . While Blue's long-term goal is to establish a large permanent presence of humans in space, its first major project was the [New Shepard](https://www.blueorigin.com/new-shepard/) reusable launch vehicle, intended to take humans and payloads into space for brief periods of time. In 2015, New Shepard became the first booster rocket to reach space and land vertically (although it was succeeded by SpaceX's Falcon 9, an orbital rocket that landed vertically, and preceded by NASA's Space Shuttle, an orbital rocket that landed horizontally). However, five years later, New Shepard has made a total of twelve publicly-known flights and has still never flown humans. When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space? ---This question resolves as the date when Blue Ori...
-# Forecasts: 77
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will virtual reality headset sales exceed 10 million units per year?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4845/when-will-virtual-reality-headset-sales-exceed-10-million-units-per-year/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: After decades of being relegated to niche industries and a [failed first wave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_reality#1970%E2%80%931990) in the 1990s, virtual reality has once again emerged in the last decade as a promising consumer product. With the launch of the Oculus Rift, HTC Vive, and PSVR in 2016, and continued investment by companies such as Facebook, Sony and Valve, virtual reality headsets are now experiencing a second wave of popularity. However, at this time VR headsets remain a relatively niche product; [total PSVR sales](https://uploadvr.com/psvr-sales-analysis/) are estimated at about 5 million or 5% of PS4 sales, Oculus Quest sales were estimated at [less than 1 million](https://qz.com/1739575/strong-oculus-quest-sales-boost-facebooks-non-advertising-revenue/) late last year, etc. When will 6DoF, controller-enabled, virtual reality headset sales exceed 10 million units per year? ---For the purposes of this question, a virtual reality headset has the following cha...
-# Forecasts: 39
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4846/when-will-evidence-of-successful-synthesis-of-the-element-ununennium-be-published/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Currently, the heaviest known element is [oganesson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oganesson), with 118 protons. It was first synthesised in 2002 by the [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Institute_for_Nuclear_Research), by firing calcium-48 ions at a californium-249 target; these results were unconfirmed at the time and announced later after more experiments, in 2006, at which point three or four atoms of oganesson had been observed. It was [officially recognised](https://iupac.org/discovery-and-assignment-of-elements-with-atomic-numbers-113-115-117-and-118/) by the IUPAC in 2015 and [named oganesson](https://iupac.org/iupac-is-naming-the-four-new-elements-nihonium-moscovium-tennessine-and-oganesson/) in 2016. Heavier, with 119 protons, is ununennium. Past experiments to synthesise ununennium have been unsuccessful, with no ununennium atoms being measured, though experiments have been performed at [RIKEN](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riken) si...
-# Forecasts: 37
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4848/in-the-2024-us-presidential-election-how-many-states-will-use-plurality-voting-methods-to-choose-their-electors/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The president of the United States is chosen by the [electoral college](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College#Summary), a group of 538 electors drawn from the 50 states plus Washington DC. In the rest of this question, references to states also refer to Washington DC. These electors are chosen by voting within each state. Historically this has been done by means of a [plurality vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plurality_voting) within the state, with the following exeptions: --- [Maine and Nebraska have historically used a congressional district method](https://www.bustle.com/articles/191238-what-is-the-congressional-district-method-maine-nebraska-do-things-differently), which amounts to plurality voting within districts, meaning that the state's electors may not all be from the same party. --- [Maine plans, in 2020](https://thefulcrum.us/voting/maine-ranked-choice-voting), to use a ranked choice voting method called [Instant Runoff](https://en.wikipedia.or...
-# Forecasts: 41
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors in this genre?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4849/will-a-science-fiction-work-originally-written-and-published-in-spanish-by-2029-win-any-of-the-great-international-awards-that-recognize-great-authors-in-this-genre/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 27%
-Description: Spanish Science Fiction has only a token presence internationally. In spite of pioneering works such as El Anacronopete, the first story involving a time machine, and prestigious authors like Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarin or Pedro Salinas writing SF stories, Spain has failed to impress the international readership with a universally embraced SF classic. Most writers and titles seem to be invisible not only to foreign readers and spectators, but also to their local peers, to the extent of being considered a "phantom genre." The Spanish-speaking public, however, enjoys science fiction like the rest of the world. Spanish literature does not lack imagination, and indeed has produced cultural phenomena such as magical realism during the Latin American Boom. Rapid technological development has made science fiction increasingly familiar, not only a resource for entertainment, but also a valuable tool in marketing or future studies. And numerous Spanish authors keep trying. Will a Sc...
-# Forecasts: 54
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4850/when-if-ever-will-a-manhattanapollo-project-toward-agi-be-launched/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: It is widely agreed amongst experts that Artificial General Intelligence — an AI that can flexibly and effectively perform a very wide range of cognitive tasks at least as well as humans — would represent a dramatic advance in power and capability for their developer. This has led to both speculation and concern that, recognizing this, countries or companies might launch "Manhattan project" style efforts to develop it. While shortening the timeline, these could easily lead to a race condition that compromises safety or alignment, or leads to adversarial dynamics during development. A [2020 paper](http://dmip.webs.upv.es/EPAI2020/papers/EPAI_2020_paper_11.pdf?fbclid=IwAR15Z0CMX4rBBUJEHhn6NdcMK2ZCF07pPpkcmfD36_oEI9WhV310bRkbaiQ) analyzes this issue in some detail, focusing on the "lead up" to a Manhattan/Apollo project: what understanding must be in place be "on the runway"? As an assessment of that question, we ask here: When will the first (of any) Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI ...
-# Forecasts: 130
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day poverty be in 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4851/what-will-the-percentage-of-the-world-population-in-190-a-day-poverty-be-in-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In 2015, 730 million people (9.9% of the world population) [lived in extreme poverty](https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty), defined as having a consumption below $1.90 per day in 2011 dollars. In recent decades, this has dropped massively, from 36% of the world's population in 1990; a large part of this decrease has been due to development in China and India, and now extreme poverty is increasingly concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa. [SDG 1](https://sdg-tracker.org/no-poverty), one of the Sustainable Development Goals, is to eradicate extreme poverty by 2030. The World Bank [predicts](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/30418/9781464813306.pdf) that, if nations and regions maintain their current economic growth rates, 479 million people will still live in extreme poverty in 2030. What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day (2011 PPP) poverty be in 2030? Resolution is by the World Bank's [World Development Indicators](https://databank.wo...
-# Forecasts: 76
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: GPT stands for "Generative Pre-Training" and was introduced in [this paper](https://cdn.openai.com/research-covers/language-unsupervised/language_understanding_paper.pdf) from OpenAI in 2018. [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) became famous in 2019 within the machine learning community for producing surprisingly coherent written text samples. It used 1.5 billion parameters. In May 2020, OpenAI released [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165), a 175 billion parameter model, widely regarded to have impressive language generation abilities. The massive increase in parameter count compared to GPT-2 is likely the result of a [previous investigation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.08361) from OpenAI which revealed the relationship between neural language model size and performance. Many are now interpreting OpenAI's strategy as one intended to scale neural models to their ultimate practical limit. Gwern [writes](https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/05#gpt-3), The scali...
-# Forecasts: 329
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. Stripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton. [Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton. This question asks: On 2030/7/1, what price will Climeworks charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2? This question will resolve a...
-# Forecasts: 58
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Project Vesta in 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. Stripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton. [Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target. This question asks: On 2030-07-01, what price will Project Vest...
-# Forecasts: 45
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. Stripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method. [CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete. This question asks: On 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store o...
-# Forecasts: 64
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by Charm Industrial in 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. Stripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from [Charm Industrial](https://charmindustrial.com/) at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage. [Charm industrial has a long-term target of $45 per ton for carbon storage.](https://charmindustrial.com/blog/2020/5/17/a-new-negative-emissions-method-and-...
-# Forecasts: 17
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 40%
-Description: Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. Stripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton. [Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton. This question asks: On 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach? Th...
-# Forecasts: 50
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Project Vesta still exist in 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4863/will-project-vesta-still-exist-in-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 22%
-Description: Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. Stripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton. [Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target. This question asks: On 2030/7/1, will Project Vesta still be sel...
-# Forecasts: 52
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will CarbonCure still exist in 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4864/will-carboncure-still-exist-in-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 33%
-Description: Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. Stripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method. [CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete. This question asks: On 2030/7/1, will CarbonCure still be selling carbon storage using br...
-# Forecasts: 34
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Charm Industrial still exist in 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4865/will-charm-industrial-still-exist-in-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 26%
-Description: Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. Stripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from Charm Industrial at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of Biomass. [Charm Industrial](https://charmindustrial.com/) sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage. This question asks: On 2030/7/1, will Charm Industrial still be...
-# Forecasts: 29
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will photonic tensor cores be ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4872/will-photonic-tensor-cores-be-ubiquitous-in-machine-learning-by-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 25%
-Description: From [an article](https://techxplore.com/news/2020-07-photon-based-enable-complex-machine.html) reporting on new developments in photonic tensor cores, A paper in the journal Applied Physics Reviews, by AIP Publishing, proposes a new approach to perform computations required by a neural network, using light instead of electricity. In this approach, a photonic tensor core performs multiplications of matrices in parallel, improving speed and efficiency of current deep learning paradigms. In machine learning, neural networks are trained to learn to perform unsupervised decision and classification on unseen data. Once a neural network is trained on data, it can produce an inference to recognize and classify objects and patterns and find a signature within the data. The photonic TPU stores and processes data in parallel, featuring an electro-optical interconnect, which allows the optical memory to be efficiently read and written and the photonic TPU to interface with other architectures. Th...
-# Forecasts: 54
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will OpenAI reach its profit cap for the first round of investors by 2035?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4873/will-openai-reach-its-profit-cap-for-the-first-round-of-investors-by-2035/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 17%
-Description: In 2019 OpenAI [launched](https://openai.com/blog/openai-lp/) OpenAI LP, a new “capped-profit” company that allows us to rapidly increase our investments in compute and talent while including checks and balances to actualize our mission. The profit cap was intended to ensure that the company did not put profits before its humanitarian mission: The fundamental idea of OpenAI LP is that investors and employees can get a capped return if we succeed at our mission, which allows us to raise investment capital and attract employees with startup-like equity. But any returns beyond that amount—and if we are successful, we expect to generate orders of magnitude more value than we’d owe to people who invest in or work at OpenAI LP—are owned by the original OpenAI Nonprofit entity. [...] Returns for our first round of investors are capped at 100x their investment (commensurate with the risks in front of us), and we expect this multiple to be lower for future rounds as we make further progress. If...
-# Forecasts: 57
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4876/will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-trained-to-do-external-information-retrieval-exist-before-2023/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 51%
-Description: A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big pre-trained language models gained recognition as a multitask and few-shot learners bringing as a step closer to general artificial intelligence. Big pre-trained language models contain a lot of implicit knowledge about the world, however retrieval of that knowledge is not always reliable. These models are also expensive to update with new knowledge, because to do so they would require additional training. One way to address above issue could be augmenting language models with the capability of traditional search engines like Google. An example attempt at this task is the paper [REALM: Retrieval-Augmented Language Model Pre-Training](https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.08909) utilizing relatively small 330M parameters model. This question asks will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023? This question will re...
-# Forecasts: 47
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners. Recently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/) . However, GPT-3 is not yet available. This question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use? The question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allow...
-# Forecasts: 104
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4881/when-will-rthemotte-be-banned-from-reddit/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: On June 29th 2020, Reddit admins [announced](https://www.reddit.com/r/announcements/comments/hi3oht/update_to_our_content_policy/) a new policy banning hate speech from their website. Compared to what existed prior, the policy allows the admins to ban subreddits with greater discretion. [/r/themotte](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/) is a subreddit started by readers of the blog [SlateStarCodex](https://slatestarcodex.com/) after its writer Scott Alexander [indicated](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/22/rip-culture-war-thread/) he was unsatisfied with the reception of the so-called Culture War thread on /r/slatestarcodex. The culture war thread moved to /r/themotte thereafter. In the context of the recent policy announcement on Reddit, some have speculated that the subreddit /r/themotte may now be banned. When will this happen? If /r/themotte is not banned from Reddit by 2026-1-1, this quesiton resolves as "> 2025-12-31".
-# Forecasts: 94
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will any of these Reddit alternatives be more popular than Reddit by 2026?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4882/will-any-of-these-reddit-alternatives-be-more-popular-than-reddit-by-2026/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 6%
-Description: Reddit [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reddit) an American social news aggregation, web content rating, and discussion website. A host of Reddit alternative websites have been created, primarily as a response to perceived overreach of censorship on Reddit (especially of right wing points of view). This question asks: Will any of the reddit alternatives listed below be more popular than Reddit in January 2026, as measured by [Alexa Traffic Rank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet#Alexa_Traffic_Rank) ? The list of alternatives considered here have been curated from [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/RedditAlternatives/comments/hi97fz/list_of_active_reddit_alternatives_v5/) from the subreddit /r/RedditAlternatives. They are as follows: --- [minds](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/minds.com) - [minds.com](http://minds.com) --- [voat](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/voat.co) - [voat.co](http://voat.co) --- [steemit](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/steemit.com) - [steemit.com]...
-# Forecasts: 53
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4883/will-metaculus-anticipate-the-biggest-unforeseen-trend-of-the-2020s/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 42%
-Description: Assume that in December 2029, a survey is given to at least one of the following groups of people, --- Amazon Mechanical Turk workers --- Redditors on /r/samplesize --- A large non-political non-meme-based Facebook group, with at least 50,000 members. --- Some other body of participants who can roughly be said to represent "the people". asking them In your opinion, what was the biggest trend in the 2020s that it seemed like no one anticipated? A list of candidate trends will be curated using Google's ["Year in Search"](https://about.google/stories/year-in-search/) for each year in the 2020s (or if Google discontinues the list, another source of roughly equivalent content as discussed in the comments of this question). The order of the list will be randomized as to minimize bias in people's responses. After 1 week of the survey's publication, it will be closed and votes will be analyzed. For the trend with the most votes, consider whether there was a question on Metaculus asking i...
-# Forecasts: 34
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4892/will-transformer-derived-architectures-still-be-state-of-the-art-for-language-modeling-in-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 66%
-Description: The transformer architecture was introduced in the landmark 2017 machine learning paper [Attention is All You Need](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762) . Previously, many researchers believed that the attention mechanism was among the most promising research directions for improving sequence-to-sequence models. Writing in 2015, Christopher Olah [remarked](https://colah.github.io/posts/2015-08-Understanding-LSTMs/), LSTMs were a big step in what we can accomplish with RNNs. It’s natural to wonder: is there another big step? A common opinion among researchers is: “Yes! There is a next step and it’s attention!” This prediction turned out to be correct. Transformers are generally considered to have unseated LSTM at competitive language modeling, and their central operating principle is using the attention mechanism. Will there be another big jump that unseats the transformer architecture by 2025? Define a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a "trans...
-# Forecasts: 36
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Longbets series: Will slaughterhouses be banned in the United Kingdom by 2050.
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4894/longbets-series-will-slaughterhouses-be-banned-in-the-united-kingdom-by-2050/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 20%
-Description: Dean Mullen and Jeff T Kaufman summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/780/) . Dean Mullen writes, Progression in animal rights and changes in societal attitudes will lead to dramatic changes in human perspectives of and the treatment of non-human animals. This I believe will culminate in slaughterhouses being made illegal in many nations by the middle of this century and I believe the United Kingdom will be among those countries. and Jeff T Kaufman countered with, Slaughterhouses will continue to be legal in the UK through 2050. No country has banned slaughterhouses yet, and meat consumption is very popular. Going from "legal and common" to "completely banned" in thirty years seems very optimistic to me. If the Long Now Foundation declares Dean Mullen the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Jeff T Kaufman the winner, then this question resolves negatively. The rules for resolution are specified as follows, 1-- The b...
-# Forecasts: 37
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4895/how-many-laws-will-be-enacted-during-the-117th-united-states-congress/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The website [govtrack.us](http://govtrack.us) tracks many aspects of the United States government. [This page](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/statistics) shows statistics about how many laws are enacted during each congressional session. As of July 24th 2020, the current session of congress is 116. The 117th United States congress is scheduled to last from January 3rd 2021 to January 3rd 2023. A large number of laws enacted by the 117th congress may indicate a highly productive session. How many laws will be enacted by the US Federal Government during the 117th United States Congress? For reference, I have repeated the number of laws enacted by the US Federal Government during each session of congress in recent history in a table below. * Indicates that the current session has not yet concluded.
-# Forecasts: 67
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will China's human development index (HDI) score be in 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4905/what-will-chinas-human-development-index-hdi-score-be-in-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [The Human Development Index (HDI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Index) is a composite score of national well-being developed and maintained by the United Nations. It combines health (longevity), education (years of schooling) and economic (GNI per capita) into a single metric for year to year modeling. China has been increasing very quickly in this metric, presumably due to catch-up effects from the economic depression caused by communism. Such catch-up effects are well-studied in economics, and can be seen for countries that were bombed in World War 2 (mainly [Japan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_economic_miracle) and West Germany), and in other wars. However, at some point, catch-up effects end because the indicator has reached its long-term stable trend. It is unclear, though, where this trend might be for China. Japan is currently at 0,915, South Korea at 0.906. Both have relatively fast growth rates in years 2010-2018 compared to m...
-# Forecasts: 43
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the US police-to-prison spending ratio be in 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4907/what-will-the-us-police-to-prison-spending-ratio-be-in-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Currently, for every dollar spent on prisons, [the US spends 1.5 dollars on police](https://blog.skepticallibertarian.com/2019/01/09/charts-police-vs-prisons-in-the-us-and-europe/) . This is much more relatively on prisons than in the EU, which spends 5 dollars on police for every dollar on prisons, and is commensurate with the higher incarceration rate in the US ([655 prisoners per 100,000 people](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarceration_rate), compared to, for example, 105 in France). The ratio has not always been this low; from 1950-1975, when US incarceration rates were lower, this ratio was 3-to-1. Reduction of the number of people in prison [is a goal](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/25/16340782/study-mass-incarceration) of criminal justice reformers including the [Open Philanthropy Project](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform), and paradoxically black neighbourhoods are in some ways [underpoliced](https:...
-# Forecasts: 52
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4911/when-will-an-individual-spacex-falcon-9-core-stage-launch-and-return-to-earth-for-the-tenth-time/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The [Falcon 9 rocket](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) is a two-stage rocket designed and manufactured by SpaceX. The first stage (also known as the core stage) can return to Earth and land propulsively, to be reused on a later mission. In the last several years, SpaceX has incrementally developed its reusability capabilities. On [December 22nd, 2015](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9_flight_20), a Falcon 9 core stage successfully returned to Earth for the first time. On [March 30th, 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SES-10), a Falcon 9 core was reused for the first time. Since that time, SpaceX has continued to make improvements and test the limits of reusability. The most "veteran" core at the moment is core [B1049](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores#wiki_b1049), which successfully launched and returned for the fifth time in June 2020. However, SpaceX's stated goal is to push this even further, using each core at least [10 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki...
-# Forecasts: 142
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4912/how-many-of-the-priority-paths-identified-by-80000hours-will-still-be-priority-paths-in-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [80,000hours](https://80000hours.org/) is a non-profit which provides research and support to help people use their career to help solve the world's most pressing problems. It is associated with the [Centre for Effective Altruism](https://centreforeffectivealtruism.org/), and also produces the popular 80,000hours [podcast](https://80000hours.org/podcast/) . Much of the focus of 80,000hours is supporting people to move into one of their [priority paths](https://80000hours.org/career-reviews/#our-priority-paths), which they see as "one of [the] highest-impact options" for those who have "the potential to excel" in those paths. In 2020, the priority paths are: --- AI policy and strategy research and implementation --- AI safety technical researcher --- Grantmaker focused on top areas --- Work in effective altruism organisations --- Global priorities researcher --- Biorisk strategy and policy --- China specialists --- Earning to give in quant trading --- Decision-making psychology...
-# Forecasts: 24
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will win the 'worm wars'?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4919/who-will-win-the-worm-wars/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 72%
-Description: According to GiveWell's [Cost-Effectiveness Analysis](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zLmPuddUmKsy3v55AfG_e1Quk-ngDdNzW-FDx0T-Y94) (CEA), mass deworming ranks among the very best global health interventions. The evidence for deworming comes primarily from a [single study](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21428), which showed large economic effects which were present a full decade after treatment. However, other studies have shown [little](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(16)30242-X/fulltext) to [no effect](https://www.cochrane.org/CD000371/INFECTN_deworming-school-children-low-and-middle-income-countries) of mass deworming on weight, cognitive ability, school attendance or other health outcomes, and the weight placed on the initial paper has proved [controversial](https://www.vox.com/2015/7/24/9031909/worm-wars-explained) . In GiveWell's CEA, deworming benefits are modeled as being entirely due to long-term economic effects like those seen in the stud...
-# Forecasts: 59
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many charities will Charity Entrepreneurship help launch in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4920/how-many-charities-will-charity-entrepreneurship-help-launch-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [Charity Entrepreneurship](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/about-us.html) is an organisation which provides training and support to individuals looking to start effective charities. Thirteen people graduated from their 2019 [incubation program](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubation-program.html), who ended up founding [six charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/blog/update-on-six-new-charities-incubated-by-charity-entrepreneurship), two of which received GiveWell [incubation grants](https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants) . Due to the pandemic, Charity Entrepreneurship's incubation programme has moved online in 2020. This question asks: By the end of 2021, how many new charities will have been founded by graduates of Charity Entrepreneurship's incubation program? Charities founded before the opening of this question are not counted in the total. Resolution will be according to the Charity Entrepreneurship website, and/or credible media rep...
-# Forecasts: 25
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will Charity Entrepreneurship help create a new GiveWell top charity?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4921/when-will-charity-entrepreneurship-help-create-a-new-givewell-top-charity/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [Charity Entrepreneurship](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/about-us.html) is an organisation which provides training and support to individuals looking to start effective charities. Thirteen people graduated from their 2019 [incubation program](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubation-program.html), who ended up founding [six charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/blog/update-on-six-new-charities-incubated-by-charity-entrepreneurship), two of which received GiveWell [incubation grants](https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants), one of which is estimated as having a [25% chance](https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant) of becoming a GiveWell top charity. GiveWell is a research organisation which aims to find outstanding giving opportunities. It maintains a list of [top charities](https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities) which it considers to have the highest marginal impact per dollar donated....
-# Forecasts: 71
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4922/will-there-be-active-warfare-between-the-united-states-and-china-by-the-end-of-2026/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 9%
-Description: The current conflicts between the United States and China - including trade, espionage, international politics, propaganda, "soft power" and territorial claims - have [been described as a Cold War](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/china-us-war/594793/) . Could this turn to active warfare (sometimes euphemistically described as "kinetic conflict") in the near future? Some Australian analysts think so. [Chris Joye writes in the Australian Financial Review](https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/why-the-risk-of-a-major-power-conflict-is-rising-20200709-p55aji) : When I asked Professor Hugh White about this eight years ago, he handicapped war between China and the US at a 10 per cent probability over the so-called forward planning horizon. The tiny minority of foreign policy and security experts who saw this coming at that time now put the likelihood closer to 20 to 30 per cent. My own best guess is that the chance of a low- or high-intensity kinetic conflict of some k...
-# Forecasts: 141
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4923/will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-by-ai/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 14.000000000000002%
-Description: [The Millennium Prize Problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are seven problems in mathematics that were stated by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. A correct solution to any of the problems results in a 1 million dollar prize being awarded by the institute to the discoverer(s). The problems are: --- [The Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/birch-and-swinnerton-dyer-conjecture) --- [Hodge conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/hodge-conjecture) --- [Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/navier%E2%80%93stokes-equation) --- [P versus NP problem](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem) --- [Poincaré conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/poincar%C3%A9-conjecture) --- [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis) --- [Yang–Mills existence and mass gap](https://w...
-# Forecasts: 139
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4924/will-the-church-of-jesus-christ-of-latter-day-saints-allow-same-sex-marriage-by-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 33%
-Description: The [Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), otherwise known as the Mormons, have historically been more anti-LGBT, in terms of both official church doctrine and the individual attitudes of members, than most major Christian denominations in America. However, like other such large, socially conservative churches, there has been [a lot of pressure recently](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homosexuality_and_The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), particularly from younger and/or LGBT members, for them to change their doctrine regarding gender and sexuality. Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognize marriages between individuals of the same sex? This question resolves positively if by midnight on December 31st, 2029, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognizes marriages between individuals of the same sex.
-# Forecasts: 44
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will SpaceX be worth in 2030? [125B-100T range]
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4927/what-will-spacex-be-worth-in-2030-125b-100t-range/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Note: This question is the same as [another question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/), but with a higher range. [Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://spacex.com), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. SpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit (Falcon 1 in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft (Dragon in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station (Dragon in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket (Falcon 9 in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket (Falcon 9 in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun (Falcon Heavy's payload of a Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster in 2018). As of 2019, the company is developing a veh...
-# Forecasts: 72
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the Woke index in US elite media top?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4931/when-will-the-woke-index-in-us-elite-media-top/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [Zach Goldberg](https://twitter.com/ZachG932) has done research [showing the steep rise in Woke terms used in US media](https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/media-great-racial-awakening) . These are terms like racism, privilege, whiteness and so on. These have shown a marked increase since about 2011, called [the great awokening](https://quillette.com/2020/06/22/toward-a-new-cultural-nationalism/) . There doesn't not yet seem to be any end to this rise, but presumably it will end at some point. Resolved: When will the use of Woke terms in US elite media top? ---These are defined as part of Zach Goldberg's Woke index which includes [the following words](https://imgur.com/KtoqNv9) . ---The top of the curve is defined locally as January 1st of the year when both adjacent years shows a lower frequency of the woke words. I.e., it is the year prior to the first decline. This may be a local maximum in the longer term, but we can't know that. ---The question resolves as the maxim...
-# Forecasts: 23
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples. As of August 2020, the best performing model is [T5 from Google](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.10683), which receives a score of 89.3. The human baseline is 89.8. Unfortunately, outside of the benchmark T5 does not seem to match general-purpose language understanding skills of humans. Therefore, this question considers a more challenging regime for the benchmark recently presented in [the GPT-3 paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165) . The few-shot regime is when the model has severely limited access to the training set. This question will take into account models that have been trained on maximally 100 examples from each task and asks: When will...
-# Forecasts: 82
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4934/will-freeton-cryptocurrency-project-be-successful/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 8%
-Description: Telegram Open Network was a cryptocurrency project that would allow to make transactions within Telegram messenger. It was [cancelled](https://www.interactivecrypto.com/telegram-cancels-telegram-open-network-and-grams-project) after a lawsuit initiated by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) in the USA. After that, a group of developers [forked](https://cryptopotato.com/free-ton-forks-to-decentralized-independence-in-telegram-token-sales-departure/) the project under name [FreeTON](https://freeton.org/) to develop it independently from Telegram messenger. Will the FreeTON project be successful and widely used for online payments? This question will resolve positively if there will be at least 50 online shops that accept FreeTON at the resolution date, or if there will be publically available data from trusted online source showing that total amount of payments with FreeTON is more than $1M per month at the resolution date. Otherwise, the question will resolve negatively.
-# Forecasts: 39
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4946/will-antifa-officially-be-labeled-a-terrorist-group-in-the-us-before-2022/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 4%
-Description: US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, [tweeting May 31st](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1267129644228247552) : The United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization. US Texan Senator Ted Cruz has [similarly been campaigning for this move](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/antifa-cruz-riots-organized-terror-attacks) : Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight the role Antifa and like-minded groups are playing in riots across the country, convening a Senate hearing Tuesday on the issue while alleging that radical left-wing groups are engaging in "organized terror attacks" designed to tear down government institutions. “Across the country, we’re seeing horrific violence, we’re seeing our country torn apart. Violent anarchists and Marxists are exploiting protests to transform them into riots and direct assaults on the lives and safety of their fellow Americans,” Cruz told Fox News in a...
-# Forecasts: 245
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: [Metaculus] When will the feature to share private questions go live?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4947/metaculus-when-will-the-feature-to-share-private-questions-go-live/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [In the discussion thread posted 27th May 2018](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/935/discussion-topic-what-features-should-metaculus-add/), a feature is noted as being in the works "Invite people to predict on your private questions, on a per-question basis." Similarly, [a comment from 25th June 2020](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/935/discussion-topic-what-features-should-metaculus-add/#comment-34260) saying this feature is highly desirable has +5. Thus, it would appear that the feature is highly sought and already noted as being in development for more than 2 years. So the question is: When will the feature to share a private question go live? --- The feature must be available to online on the live version of the website, not a beta or private version. --- The feature must be available to regular users, not some small fraction of users on a test basis. --- It must be possible to have designated users join in a given forecast and the summary statistics shown, the same way ...
-# Forecasts: 51
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the best marathon time completed before 2035, in seconds, according to Guinness World Records?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4949/what-will-be-the-best-marathon-time-completed-before-2035-in-seconds-according-to-guinness-world-records/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon), The marathon is a long-distance race with an official distance of 42.195 kilometres (26 miles 385 yards), usually run as a road race. The event was instituted in commemoration of the fabled run of the Greek soldier Pheidippides, a messenger from the Battle of Marathon to Athens, who reported the victory. The marathon can be completed by running or with a run/walk strategy. The best time recognized by the International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) is 2:01:39, or 7299 seconds, completed by Kenyan runner [Eliud Kipchoge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliud_Kipchoge) in 2018. However, Guinness World Records recognizes [another run](https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/595048-fastest-marathon-distance-male) from Eliud Kipchoge in which he completed a marathon in 1:59:40 or 7180 seconds as part of the [Ineos 1:59 Challenge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ineos_1:59_Challenge) . A [1991 paper](https://pubmed...
-# Forecasts: 35
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will traviswfisher be unseated on the Metaculus leaderboard?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4950/when-will-traviswfisher-be-unseated-on-the-metaculus-leaderboard/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [The Metaculus leaderboard](https://www.metaculus.com/rankings/) shows the top players by cumulative points earned for resolved questions. As of August 7th 2020, the top user is [traviswfisher](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/100518/) with 23184 total points. This question asks, what will be the earliest date after August 7th 2020 in which traviswfisher is no longer the top player? In the case the Metaculus leaderboard is overhauled, this question resolves ambiguously. The question resolves as "> Aug 7, 2030" if traviswfisher are not unseated by then.
-# Forecasts: 154
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4951/how-many-billions-of-tons-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-will-the-united-states-emit-in-2035/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The United States [emitted 5.4 billion tons](http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions) of carbon dioxide in 2018, 15% of the world's total, and over its history has emitted [25% of the world's total](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions) carbon dioxide emissions. Emissions this high are inconistent with the goal of keeping the global temperature rise low, especially to within climate goals like 1.5 and 2 °C which would require global emissions mitigation [beyond what is currently pledged](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#future-emissions-scenarios) . Over the coming years, new technologies like carbon sequestration, next-gen nuclear reactors, hydrogen-based fuels, and [electrification using renewables](https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/21349200/climate-change-fossil-fuels-rewiring-america-electrify) could decrease CO₂ emissions. How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035? Resolutio...
-# Forecasts: 47
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4952/will-lebanon-come-under-french-rule-again-before-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 1%
-Description: France has previously ruled Lebanon and Syria cf. [the Mandate for Syria and the Lebanon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandate_for_Syria_and_the_Lebanon) in the period 1920-1946. Following recent events, [there is some popular desire to return to French rule](https://beforeitsnews.com/global-unrest/2020/08/over-57000-thousands-lebanese-sign-a-petition-begging-macron-to-be-their-leader-and-demanding-that-lebanon-be-placed-under-french-rule-2529246.html) : Over 57,000 people have signed an online petition to “place Lebanon under a French mandate for the next 10 years” as of Friday morning. The petition was directed at French President Emmanuel Macron, who on Thursday became the first foreign leader to arrive in Beirut since the tragedy struck. So the question is: Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025? ---It must be formally recognized as French rule by at least 3 other Western powers.
-# Forecasts: 111
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the first baby be born away from Earth?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4954/when-will-the-first-baby-be-born-away-from-earth/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question simply asks: When will the first baby be born away from Earth? The question will resolve when the first alive human baby be born away from Earth. The distance from the surface of Earth at the moment of the birth must be at least 80km. If it doesn't happen before 2120, then the question will resolve at >2120. Similar questions: --- [Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/) --- [One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/)
-# Forecasts: 59
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will One Piece end?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4963/when-will-one-piece-end/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: It has just been announced that after 23 years in publication the [best-selling comic series of all time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_comic_series) is [nearing its end](https://mothership.sg/2019/11/one-piece-ending/#:~:text=Long%2Drunning%20manga%20One%20Piece,will%20end%20in%20five%20years.) . So when will the last manga issue of the main [One Piece](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Piece) story (excluding any spinoffs and sequels) be published? This question resolves when [Eiichiro Oda](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eiichiro_Oda) (or whoever is named as his successor) confirms that the last chapter of the story has been published in [Weekly Shōnen Jump magazine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weekly_Sh%C5%8Dnen_Jump) (or whichever magazine is publishing One Piece at the time). This question will resolve as 'ambiguous' if one of the following criteria are met: Oda (or whoever is writing one piece at the time) decides to split the story in two without clarifying...
-# Forecasts: 32
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Some text has been copied from [this closely aligned question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2951/will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-in-a-human-before-1-january-2022/) . [Neuralink Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink) is an American neurotechnology company founded in 2016 by serial entrepreneur Elon Musk and others, developing implantable brain–machine interfaces (BMIs). Since its founding, the company has hired several high-profile neuroscientists from various universities. By July 2019, it had received $158 million in funding (of which $100 million from Musk) and was employing a staff of 90 employees. At that time, Neuralink announced that it was working on a “sewing machine-like” robot capable of implanting very thin "threads" into the brain, demonstrated a system that read information from a lab rat's brain via thousands of electrodes (many times more than the current maximum for systems used in human brain...
-# Forecasts: 110
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4967/what-will-be-the-real-median-household-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The real (inflation adjusted) [median household income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States) can be seen as an economic indicator measuring how well-off an average family is within some economic region, insensitive to wealth inequality (unlike GDP per capita). The Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed [tracks the real median household income in the United States over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N) . The most recent year they have data for is 2018, with a real median household income of $63,179. This question asks, what will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030, in dollars? In case The Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed does not have the data on January 1st 2032 (the anticipated date of resolution), any other reputable source is appropriate to use for resolution. The historical data is copied into a csv format below, for convenience: Year,Income 1984,51742 1985,52709 1986,54608 1987,55260 1988,5571...
-# Forecasts: 52
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient), In economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...] A Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...] The Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality. The World B...
-# Forecasts: 64
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4969/will-someone-report-to-have-received-a-hemispherectomy-for-the-purpose-of-life-extension-before-2100/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 16%
-Description: A hemispherectomy [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hemispherectomy) a very rare neurosurgical procedure in which a cerebral hemisphere (half of the brain) is removed, disconnected, or disabled. This procedure is used to treat a variety of seizure disorders where the source of the epilepsy is localized to a broad area of a single hemisphere of the brain, notably Rasmussen's encephalitis. [...] Because of the dramatic alteration of brain composition and the inherent risk that hemispherectomies pose, there are criteria that must be met in order for a person to qualify for the procedure. Criteria include no successful control of seizures throughout a variety of drug trials, and a reasonable to high chance of procedural success. One such predictor of success is often the age of the patient. This procedure is almost exclusively performed in children because their brains generally display more neuroplasticity, allowing neurons from the remaining hemisphere to take over the tasks from the l...
-# Forecasts: 37
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the monthly average number of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4970/what-will-be-the-monthly-average-number-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ------- The 11-year Solar Cycle has been intensely monitored and recorded since the 18th century. The ebb and flow of solar activity constitutes an interesting astrophysical problem and it is also for increasing importance here on Earth. In particular, the timing and the scaling of the Solar Cycle’s peaks and troughs is of great importance to operators of both Earth-orbiting satellites and power transmission grids. A key measure of solar activity is the number of sunspots, whose presence is correlated with the occurrence of solar flares. [Wolf’s number](https://astronomy.swin.edu.au/cosmos/W/Wolf+Number) (also called the International Sunspot Number or the Relative Sunspot Number) is expressed by the relation R = k(10g +s), where s is the number of individual spots, g is the number of groups of sunspots, and k is a factor that varies with location and instrumentation (also called observatory factor, or personal reduction coefficient). By convention, Wolf’s number is used as a...
-# Forecasts: 21
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: 13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4971/13-month-boxed-mean-of-sunspots-around-the-solar-25-maximum/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ------- Given that the number of sunspots is subject to large fluctuations on both daily and monthly time scales, [aggregating a 13-month boxcar average](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) with half-weights on the first and last month can be a helpful indication of the average number of sunspots over an extended period. This smoothing process is frequently used when charting solar activity over time, and it effectively tracks long-term changes in sunspot numbers over the entirety of a solar cycle. The [13-month boxcar average](http://www.sidc.be/silso/infosnmstot) is calculated using the monthly average numbers of sunspots, Rm (found using Wolf’s Number). In addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By...
-# Forecasts: 20
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the minimum magnetic field strength during Solar Cycle 25?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4974/what-will-be-the-minimum-magnetic-field-strength-during-solar-cycle-25/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ------- Solar polar field strength has been determined to provide one of the best predictions of the amplitude of the next cycle and the maximum of the current cycle. The strength of the polar field is physically connected to the dynamo processes that generate sunspot development, and eventually the global field reversals that delineate the Sunspot Cycle. [Power transmission relies on magnetic or electro-magnetic fields](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/power-transmission#:~:text=INTRODUCTION,from%20one%20place%20to%20another.) on the Earth, which can be altered by geo-magnetic changes from variations in solar weather. Low activity in the polar fields increases the [intensity of solar weather](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming) and the [risk to satellite and power transmission operators](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/electric-power-transmission), who’s products’ efficacy is often strongly correlated with stronger fi...
-# Forecasts: 54
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the 3-day mean geomagnetic forecast around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4975/what-will-be-the-3-day-mean-geomagnetic-forecast-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ------- Levels of geomagnetic activity correlate with the likelihood of a geomagnetic storm occurring. Geomagnetic storms result from [variations in solar wind](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/geomagnetic-storms) that produce major changes in the currents, plasmas, and fields in Earth’s magnetosphere. Together, all of these disturbances, and the magnetic deviations they produce on the ground, are used to construct a commonly used [planetary geomagnetic disturbance index known as Kp](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index) . In the past, significant geomagnetic disturbances have [caused damage to electric power transmission grids](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/electric-power-transmission) . For example, a geomagnetic storm associated with a solar coronal mass ejection in March 1989 caused the [entire province of Quebec to lose power](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/sun_darkness.html) . As society grows ever more reliant on technology, vulnerabil...
-# Forecasts: 35
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: On what day will Solar Cycle 25’s maximum occur?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4976/on-what-day-will-solar-cycle-25s-maximum-occur/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ------- The solar cycle maximum is represented by the day of greatest solar activity within the frame of a single, approximately 11-year long, solar cycle. In the period near the maximum, the largest number of sunspots appear, and the frequency of solar flares and coronal mass ejections is correspondingly high. As [NASA](https://spaceplace.nasa.gov/solar-cycles/en/) reports: “Giant eruptions on the Sun, such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections, also increase during the solar cycle. These eruptions send powerful bursts of energy and material into space. This activity can have effects on Earth. For example, eruptions can cause lights in the sky, called aurora, or impact radio communications. Extreme eruptions can even affect electricity grids on Earth.” Forecasts for the date near which a given Solar Cycle will peak provide improvement for predictions of the level of solar activity and its impact on the satellite industry. Near Solar Maximum, satellites in low earth orb...
-# Forecasts: 37
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What day will Solar Cycle 25 end?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4978/what-day-will-solar-cycle-25-end/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ------- The end of Cycle 25 will be coincident with the minimum of Solar Cycle 26. As the baton is passed from one cycle to the next, the Sun will be characterized by depressed surface-associated magnetic activity (such as flares and prominences) and a paucity of sunspots. The minimum amplitude of Cycle 26, indicated by the level of sunspots at the minimum, can indicate the expected strength of the cycle and future solar activity levels. As the overall field structure of the Sun is believed to harbor some [long-term memory](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) . As a consequence, the decline of Cycle 24, which is expected to continue into Cycle 25, provides a possible influence on Cycle 26. The ongoing minimum has so far been quite deep. According to [Spaceweather.com](http://Spaceweather.com) there have been over 100 days in 2020 on which the Sun has displayed zero sunspots, leading to speculation that the Sun may be entering a period of exten...
-# Forecasts: 44
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will a mini-Maunder event occur beginning in Solar Cycle 25 (or 24)?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4979/will-a-mini-maunder-event-occur-beginning-in-solar-cycle-25-or-24/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 49%
-Description: Context ------- The Maunder Minimum, which took place in the late 17th and early 18th centuries, was associated with several successive unusually low-activity solar cycles. During this period, [very few sunspots appeared](https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/7122/chilly-temperatures-during-the-maunder-minimum) on the surface of the Sun, and the overall luminosity of the Sun was slightly lower than average. During this period, temperatures on Earth dropped, and the the Northern hemisphere experienced a ‘little Ice Age.” Opinions diverge on whether the dearth solar activity was causative for the temperature decline. Volcanic activity, for example, may have been [more directly responsible](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/01/120130131509.htm) for the temporary cooling. As [Petrovay (2020)](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) states in their recent review article: “With the known poor cycle-to-cycle correlation, strong deviations from the lon...
-# Forecasts: 20
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4981/what-will-be-the-5-day-moving-average-of-the-107-cm-radio-flux-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ------- The solar radio flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, known as F10.7, is an excellent indicator of solar activity levels, and has remained one of the longest-recorded indicators as well. The [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/f107-cm-radio-emissions) remarks that, “The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records.” Because extreme UV light cannot be measured from the surface of the Earth, the use of F10.7 as a proxy can help determine levels of incident UV radiation as well. If 10.7 cm radio flux from the Sun is low during Solar Cycle 25 it will indicate a weaker cycle, and if high, it will indicate a stronger cycle. Predicting the strength of a cycle can help prepare people and companies involved with satellite design and operation, as well as in ...
-# Forecasts: 44
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will a human with no biological feet run 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4986/when-will-a-human-with-no-biological-feet-run-100-meters-in-less-than-9572-seconds/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Blades used by disabled athletes are improving, allowing them to run faster. The current world record for the 100 meters is 9.572 seconds, ran by Usain Bolt in 2009. You can see how this record progressed over time on Wikipedia's article [Men's 100 metres world record progression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) . Jeremy Richmond, a scientist, predicts the best possible time for a non-augmented human is 9.27 seconds (source: [Ultimate 100-Meter Time: 9.27 Seconds?](https://www.runnersworld.com/races-places/a20791832/ultimate-100-meter-time-9-27-seconds/)). This question asks, when will a human with no biological feet run 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds? If no human without biological feet runs 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds before January 1st 2100, then this question resolves as >2100. Liam Malone thinks it's possible – although not while respecting the rules set by the Paralympics on which artificial legs athletes can wear (so...
-# Forecasts: 21
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4994/microwave-disruption-of-covid-19-virus-particles/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 30%
-Description: In yet another example of the universe's sense of humor, there is reason to believe that microwave radiation, rather than causing COVID-19, may in fact be an effective way of destroying the virus. [This paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/srep18030?fbclid=IwAR1oOzypwsGJPBhbIBapP9k-Hhh9P9l88rap73eHiM3BXxDCTeyCWYV9eew) argues that a resonance in sub-micron particles (like COVID-19) with ~10 GHz electromagnetic waves can lead to oscillations of the virus large enough to disrupt the particle. They also have experiments to back it up. And [this recent article](https://www.wpafb.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2162707/afrl-scientists-investigate-can-microwaves-reduce-viability-of-airborne-coronav/) indicates that US Air Force seems also to be conducting experiments in that direction. Will this pan out into something useful? There are various tricky aspects. Along with killing the virus at reasonable flux levels, this would have to not endanger health, or provide untenable levels of ...
-# Forecasts: 62
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4997/a-stock-price-rise-preceding-agi/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 61%
-Description: If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months? This question defines Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) in the same way as [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) . If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, this question resolves according to the following methodology: ---Let t be the date when the AGI is publicly known, as determined by the above Metaculus question. Let C be the company that developed the AGI. ---Calculate the total return (including dividends) of C's stock over the period from 12 months prior to t to one month prior to t, inclusive.[1] ---Over the same period, calculate the total return of the FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists. ---Calculate the ratio of C's t...
-# Forecasts: 22
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will Denmark rank in GDP per capita (PPP) in 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5000/what-will-denmark-rank-in-gdp-per-capita-ppp-in-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: One of the most widely used metrics for country well-being comparison is the GDP per capita metric, which [intends to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product) "the market value of all the final goods and services produced". [Wikipedia provides](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28PPP%29_per_capita) a convenient overview of rankings according to different sources. One notable thing is that countries tend to keep their relative positions over time, but not entirely so. Some countries that used to be rich are no longer (e.g., [Argentina](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina)), and others that were very poor are now rich or quickly becoming rich (e.g. [Asian tigers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Asian_Tigers), and now China). Denmark is currently ranked 12 on the World Bank's 2019 estimates, excluding dependent territories. The question is: What will Denmark's ranking be in 2030? Resolution will be based on [World Bank...
-# Forecasts: 28
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many DALYs will be caused by outdoor air pollution in 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5025/how-many-dalys-will-be-caused-by-outdoor-air-pollution-in-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Air pollution is one of the world's [leading risk factors for death](https://ourworldindata.org/air-pollution), and research on air pollution consistently reveals [harmful effects](https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/8/12/21361498/climate-change-air-pollution-us-india-china-deaths) . These health risks are concrentrated in middle-income countries like India and China due to pollution from industrialisation. Overall, the Global Burden of Disease study estimates that outdoor air pollution was resposible for 90 million DALYs in 2017, making up 3.6% of all DALYs in that year. While deaths overall from air pollution have been falling, this is purely because of the [decline in indoor air pollution](https://ourworldindata.org/indoor-air-pollution) ; the number of deaths from outdoor air pollution has been increasing slowly over the last 20 years. How many DALYs will be estimated to be caused by outdoor air pollution in 2030? Resolution will be by the [Global Burden of Disease Stud...
-# Forecasts: 45
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 64%
-Description: There is an active question on ["Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result. Scotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom) . Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK...
-# Forecasts: 92
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a "hidden website" on the Tor Network during 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5034/will-a-high-profile-criminal-investigation-take-down-a-hidden-website-on-the-tor-network-during-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 45%
-Description: High profile means at least two credible media sources report that a criminal investigation resulted in a hidden site on the Tor Network became unavailable. No arrests need to be made. Some historical data, each of which would qualify if they took place in 2021: Silk Road was taken down in 2013, along with Freedom Hosting Operation Onymous shut down hundreds of sites in 2014 Operation Pacifier shut down Playpen in 2015 Operation Bayonet shut down AlphaBay and others in 2017 Some examples that would not count: Operation Babylon shut down a website in 2015, but I don't see mainstream media coverage, so it would not be considered high profile. [https://apnews.com/85942717e8fa40c09da1f2f3d6…](https://apnews.com/85942717e8fa40c09da1f2f3d637e29f) this has arrests in 2019, but the story mentions the site shut down prior to those arrests Berlusconi was shut down in 2019 with arrests, but against no mainstream media coverage I don't see anything in 2016 or 2018-20 that would qualify under thes...
-# Forecasts: 83
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5035/when-will-spacex-starlink-internet-be-generally-available/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/) is a space transportation services company best known for its partially-reusable [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) rocket and ambitions to settle Mars. SpaceX has recently undertaken a project to construct a satellite constellation called [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink) that is intended to provide satellite Internet. In contrast to currently operating satellite Internet constellations, the Starlink constellation is intended to comprise tens of thousands of inexpensive satellites orbiting at a low altitude. The hope is that this will allow relatively inexpensive, low-latency consumer Internet for everyday use. At the current time, SpaceX is advertising [beta signups](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/spacex-starlink-beta-test-how-to-sign-up) for prospective customers, and Internet sleuths have purportedly uncovered [speed tests](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/08/spacex-starlink-beta-tests-show...
-# Forecasts: 180
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 8%
-Description: In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone) . For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes: Achim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro: "All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would...
-# Forecasts: 55
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the largest CME during Solar Cycle 25 (in kinetic energy)?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5045/what-will-be-the-largest-cme-during-solar-cycle-25-in-kinetic-energy/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ------- The [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-mass-ejections) defines a coronal mass ejection (CME) as: “ large expulsions of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun’s corona. They can eject billions of tons of coronal material and carry an embedded magnetic field (frozen in flux) that is stronger than the background solar wind interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength. CMEs travel outward from the Sun at speeds ranging from slower than 250 kilometers per second (km/s) to as fast as near 3000 km/s. The fastest Earth-directed CMEs can reach our planet in as little as 15-18 hours.They expand in size as they propagate away from the Sun and larger CMEs can reach a size comprising nearly a quarter of the space between Earth and the Sun by the time it reaches our planet.” Beisecker, who works at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center and led the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel in 2019, remarked that CMEs are approximately [ten t...
-# Forecasts: 18
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5048/will-the-uk-rejoin-the-eu-before-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 3%
-Description: The United Kingdom (UK) famously voted to leave the European Union in 2015 with a surprise leave vote ([Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit)). It was legally set in motion in 2019 by Conservative prime minister Boris Johnson: Brexit (/ˈbrɛksɪt, ˈbrɛɡzɪt/;[1] a portmanteau of "British" and "exit") is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Following a UK-wide referendum in June 2016, in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the UK Government which was then led by Theresa May formally declared the country's withdrawal on 29 March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. The withdrawal was originally scheduled for 29 March 2019 but was then delayed by deadlock in the UK Parliament after the June 2017 general election resulted in an unexpected hung parliament, which then led to three subsequent extensions of the Article 50 process. The deadlock was only resolved after a subsequent general election was held in December 2019. Followin...
-# Forecasts: 128
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 10%
-Description: Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election. This question will resolve positively if: ---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and ---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. This question will resolve ambiguously if: ---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. ---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024.
-# Forecasts: 451
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: When will the first Macs with Apple Silicon ship?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5050/when-will-the-first-macs-with-apple-silicon-ship/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: On June 22nd 2020 [Apple announced transitioning Mac hardware from Intel processors to Apple Silicon](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/06/apple-announces-mac-transition-to-apple-silicon/), i.e. Apple-designed ARM-based chips. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon) the transition will start with first Macs being released by the end of 2020. What will be the date when Apple ships Macs based on Apple silicon? This question will resolve with the first shipping date provided during the checkout process in the Apple online shop on [apple.com](http://apple.com) . The product in question must be a Mac, must be sold to consumers, and must list "Apple Silicon" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications. If no such product is available by the resolution date, then the question will resolve as the upper bound.
-# Forecasts: 125
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Tucker Carlson be the Republican Presidential nominee in 2024 US presidential election?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5062/will-tucker-carlson-be-the-republican-presidential-nominee-in-2024-us-presidential-election/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 4%
-Description: [Tucker Carlson is per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tucker_Carlson) : Tucker Swanson McNear Carlson[2](born May 16, 1969)[3] is an American television presenter, political commentator, author, and columnist who has hosted the nightly political talk show Tucker Carlson Tonight on Fox News since 2016. Carlson became a print journalist in the 1990s, writing for the magazine The Weekly Standard. He was a CNN commentator from 2000 to 2005, and co-host of the network's prime-time news debate program Crossfire from 2001 to 2005. He would go on to host the nightly program Tucker on MSNBC from 2005 to 2008. He has been a political analyst for Fox News since 2009, appearing as guest or guest host on various programs before the launch of his current show. In 2010, Carlson co-founded and served as the initial editor-in-chief of the right-wing news and opinion website The Daily Caller, until selling his ownership stake and leaving the site in 2020.[4] Originally a proponent of libertari...
-# Forecasts: 167
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5105/will-stephen-bannon-be-found-guilty-of-fraud/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 5%
-Description: As reported by [Al-Jazeera 21st August 2020](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/steve-bannon-trump-adviser-arrested-fraud-200820134920664.html) : Former White House adviser Steve Bannon, an architect of Donald Trump's 2016 election victory, was arrested on a yacht and pleaded not guilty on Thursday after being charged with defrauding donors in a scheme to help build the president's signature wall along the US-Mexico border. The charges were contained in an indictment ([PDF](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/press-release/file/1306611/download)) unsealed in Manhattan federal court, which alleges Bannon and three others "orchestrated a scheme to defraud hundreds of thousands of donors". The indictment claims the "scheme" was related to an online crowdfunding campaign that claims to have raised more than $25m to build a wall along the southern border of the United States. [Allsides.com has the various versions of the story across media outlets](https://www.allsides.com/story/former-tr...
-# Forecasts: 301
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%. This question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%. 'Chinese-based' includes mainl...
-# Forecasts: 20
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 45%
-Description: Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that Systems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. Will Hanson win the bet? Resolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.
-# Forecasts: 160
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5120/if-tested-would-the-most-powerful-quesion-answering-ai-system-as-of-2022-06-01-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-5th-graders/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 27%
-Description: Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. This is one of a series probing the predicted state-of-the-art in AI systems by pitting them directly against humans in adversarial (against the AI) general intelligence tests. Other questions in this series as of launch ask [whether GPT-3 can outperform human 4th graders on text-based questions,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/) and [whether by 2040 a system will exist that can outperform high-level human STEM grad students on totally general questions.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) Here we ask: assume that as of 2022-06-01 the most capable AI (MCAI) text-b...
-# Forecasts: 37
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationalization for artificial general intelligence, and including robotic capabilities. I will copy relevant parts of that question to this one. Since the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this "general" intelligence has remained elusive. AI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems. But there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, ...
-# Forecasts: 143
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5138/will-the-world-series-of-poker-return-to-a-live-in-person-format-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 70%
-Description: Live in-person poker is a particularly bad match for virus outbreaks. Not only are players typically huddled together in close promimity over tables, but they are constantly touching and then exchanging small plastic rectangles and discs (cards and chips, respectively). There would have to be considerable progress in containtment, treatment, and/or vaccines before a large-scale live-poker tournament event would be safe to hold in the U.S. The World Series of Poker, after having run tournament events in Las Vegas every summer since 1970, was forced to postpone its 2020 event due to the coronavirus pandemic, and hosted an [alternative online-only version](https://www.wsop.com/2020/online/) . Will the WSOP return to a live format in 2021? This question will resolve positively if all of the following conditions are met: ---A live version of the World Series of Poker 2021 is announced on the [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/) . ---A corresponding set of live tournaments are actually he...
-# Forecasts: 94
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 16%
-Description: Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/) : A teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday. He was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees) . One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha) ....
-# Forecasts: 460
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: What will be the first year when world real GDP exceeds 130% of any prior year?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/when-will-economic-growth-accelerate/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Economic historians have often emphasized the role [economic growth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_growth) plays as perhaps the most important phenomena of human history. In a quite real sense, economic growth is what distinguishes 21st century humanity from our distant ancestors who had no technology or civilization. By estimating historical economic growth, economists have [identified](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/longgrow.html) two crucial events in the history of humanity which greatly accelerated the rate of growth: the agricultural revolution roughly 10,000 years ago, and the industrial revolution roughly 200 years ago. Many theorists now anticipate that there will be a another crucial event in which economic growth rates greatly accelerate, roughly timed with the development of advanced artificial intelligence. In line with these predictions, economic growth is the [primary specific benchmark](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YgNYA6pj2hPSDQiTE/distinguishing-definitions...
-# Forecasts: 46
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In two letters to the UN Human Rights Council, lines were drawn on China's mass detention policies in Xinjiang. 22 countries issued formal condemnations, including western Europe, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK. 37 countries came out with support: Russia, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Algeria, Syria, Tajikistan, Myanmar, Nigeria, Philippines, Angola, Belarus, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Comoros, Congo (Brazzaville), Cuba, North Korea, Congo, Eritrea, Gabon, Laos, Somalia, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Egypt, Togo, Cambodia, Sudan, South Sudan, Turkmenistan, Cameroon and Bolivia. A great many more have remained neutral. The question asks: will the positions of any of these countries, or any currently neutral countries as of 29 Aug 2020, ch...
-# Forecasts: 76
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5170/will-nord-stream-2-be-completed/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 73%
-Description: Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipline connecting Russia and Germany. Importantly, it will bypass Ukraine, with whom Russia has had troubled relations in the recent past. Germany has been repeatedly pressured to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, both by the US and most recently in light of the attempted assassination of Russian dissident [Alexei Navalny](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/28/europe/navalny-aide-interview-intl/index.html) . Nonetheless, Germany has insisted that the project is purely economic and will go [forward](https://tass.com/economy/1194837) . Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)? The question resolves positive if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas. It resolves negative if this event does not occur by January 1, 2025. Or if the project is declared abandoned, canceled, destroyed or is unlikely to be completed in the near future for another reason. The question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of...
-# Forecasts: 40
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5173/transformers-effect-on-ai-research/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 40%
-Description: OpenAI's transformer based [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) has generated a lot of hype around the capabilities of current methods in deep learning. GPT-3 seems to be capable of creative works of writing as shown by [Gwern](https://www.gwern.net/GPT-3) . This creative potential, if applied to scientific writing or code generation, may accelerate research progress. If successfully applied to deep learning research, this acceleration may be self-reinforcing potentially having implications on the development of an AGI system. Indeed the Metaculus question ["When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) updated 10 years forward in the months following the announcement of GPT-3. Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning? This question resolves posit...
-# Forecasts: 65
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 41%
-Description: In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year. If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025? This question resolves: ---Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. ---Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. ---Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020.
-# Forecasts: 219
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5178/doubling-value-company/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 41%
-Description: Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. When Apple first hit a capitalisation of $2tr, it was worth less than $1tr 365 days prior, resolving [the previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2638/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-2-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/) positively. Will the first publicly traded company to have a $4 trillion market cap be worth double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $2 trillion? This resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $4 trillion (adjusted to 2018 prices), AND it was worth less than or equal to $2 trillion one year before (also in 2018 prices). The question will refer to Yahoo Finance's ...
-# Forecasts: 50
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 21%
-Description: Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house) . Likely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likel...
-# Forecasts: 306
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: When will Bitcoin lose its position as market dominant cryptocurrency?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Bitcoin (BTC) is one of 100s of cryptocurrencies. While [not exactly the first 'digital gold'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin#Pre-history), it is the first successful and enjoys a first mover advantage in the competition in terms of market share (of all money invested in cryptocurrency). In the summer of 2017, Bitcoin seemed poised to lose its position as coin number 1 to Ethereum (ETH), however, it eventually gained back its dominance. Also in early 2018, BTC lost dominance and was down to about 33% of the market, but then again bounced back. It currently has a market share of 57% according to [coinmarketcap.com's estimate](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage) . When will Bitcoin lose its position as number one cryptocurrency? ---Data from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage) . ---Question resolves positively when Bitcoin reaches a lower market share than any other single coin. ---In case the question...
-# Forecasts: 51
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will Amazon deliver some products by drone?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5206/amazon-drone-delivery/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [Amazon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_(company)) is a technology company best known for its online shopping website. It is the [third largest company in the world](https://www.thebalance.com/market-capitalization-3305826) by market cap. [Amazon Prime Air](https://www.amazon.com/Amazon-Prime-Air) is a program under development that plans to deliver packages to customers using drones, or uncrewed aerial vehicles (quadcopters and the like). The program has suffered substantial delays. When it was revealed in 2013, CEO Jeff Bezos predicted that drone delivery would be available by [2018](https://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-bezos-predicted-amazon-would-be-making-drone-deliveries-by-2018-2018-12) . Test deliveries were first made in 2016. In 2019, Amazon stated that drone delivery would be available [within months](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/amazon-promises-drone-delivery-months/story?id=63494811) . However, as of September 2020, drone delivery is still apparently under develop...
-# Forecasts: 58
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the first human head transplant occur?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5211/first-human-head-transplant-when/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Transplantation of tissue — including organs — from one human (or nonhuman) to another is an amazing advance in medicine that has now saved many lives. Complex organs including the heart and liver are now routinely transplanted, and in many cases even quite complex severed nerves can be reattached. Much more audacious is the possibility of transplanting a human head. (Or should it be considered a full-body transplant?) The difficulties are obviously daunting: not just the spine, but major arteries, throat, etc., must all be reattached while keeping the brain alive. Recently, the media has been abuzz with news that Sergio Canavero and his colleague Xiaoping Ren of China plan to transplant a human head from a living person onto a donor cadaver. The two surgeons — who portray themselves as pioneers defying a stodgy medical establishment but are considered reckless renegades by many peers — say the head donor will be someone with a degenerative disease, whose body is wasting away while his...
-# Forecasts: 28
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5212/legacy-automaker-bankruptcy-before-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 60%
-Description: As EV technology becomes more widely adopted, and as dates are set for [the prohibition of sales of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles](https://www.thedrive.com/news/36687/california-bans-the-sale-of-new-gas-and-diesel-cars-by-2035#:~:text=Gavin%20Newsom%20just%20signed%20a,out%20the%20internal%20combustion%20engine.) in some places, the question arises: will legacy automakers be nimble enough to adapt to the market landscape? Automakers can expect to incur R&D costs associated with battery technology, in addition to the necessary overhaul of current factories. For example, [Volkswagen is spending billions](https://www.businessinsider.com/vw-making-huge-bet-on-electric-vehicles-in-next-decade-2019-11?r=US&IR=T#:~:text=By%202023%2C%20Volkswagen%20says%20it,profits%20from%202015%20through%202018.) in their efforts to expand their EV offerings, and [Mercedes is also mapping out a future centrally focused on EV's](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-06/merced...
-# Forecasts: 88
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 24%
-Description: Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) [is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique](https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/09/sikandar-siddique-deler-vandene-naar-taler-racisme-derfor-allerede-kender-frie-groennes-nye-leder), a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of [The Alternative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Alternative_(Denmark)) (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but has been in trouble since 2019 following a leadership change. That party was founded by [Uffe Elbæk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uffe_Elb%C3%A6k), who is the outed leader, and who is now a co-founder of the Free Greens. The new party is now collecting signers (stillere) of which they need about 20k to get on the ballot for the next Danish general election. Siddique is [currently a member of the Danish parliament](https://www.ft.dk/medlemmer/mf/s/sikandar-siddique), follow...
-# Forecasts: 30
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many parameters (in billions) is needed to achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5218/scaling-to-few-shot-human-level-performance/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples. With access to these examples, existing language models get pretty close to human-level performance. The reigning champion, Google's T5, is able to score an astonishing 89.3 points, just below the baseline level of human performance of 89.8 points. However, it currently requires access to many examples of the tasks. By contrast, humans can generally perform a new language task from only a few examples or from simple instructions – something which current NLP systems still largely struggle to do. Hence, a more challenging problem is achieving human-level performance in a few-shot regime, wherein the model has severely limited access to the train...
-# Forecasts: 101
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will another paper authored by Phil Rushton be retracted before 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5219/rushton-paper-retracted-before-2022/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 50%
-Description: There have been many retractions of scientific papers concerning controversial topics in recent times. For instance, earlier this year, Cory Clark et al [retracted](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956797619897915) a much discussed paper (Declines in Religiosity Predict Increases in Violent Crime—but Not Among Countries With Relatively High Average IQ). Similarly, Hans Eysenck has in recent years been facing [numerous retraction requests](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/misconduct-allegations-push-psychology-hero-his-pedestal) concerning his work with [Ronald Grossarth-Maticek](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronald_Grossarth-Maticek) on personality and health. Finally, very recently, a paper by Phil Rushton was [retracted](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191886912000840), Do pigmentation and the melanocortin system modulate aggression and sexuality in humans as they do in other animals?: This article (Rushton, J. P., & Templer, D. I. (2012). ...
-# Forecasts: 26
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: [Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [Hello Internet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hello_Internet) is a podcast by [CGP Grey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CGP_Grey) and [Brady Haran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Haran) which is well known by fans for uploading podcasts on somewhat of an irregular timetable. That is, the podcast isn't uploaded once a month or once a week, rather it is uploaded quite randomly. See especially [this website](http://www.nerdstats.net/hellointernet) which tracks the length of time between episode release dates. The last episode of the podcast was released on the 28th of february this year, and since then [Brady has given an update](https://old.reddit.com/r/HelloInternet/comments/iob6lz/the_most_recent_update_we_ve_got/) in which he says the the show is on a break. When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released? The question resolves as the date when the next episode of Hello Internet is released (that is, the first episode after HI #136 - feb. 28, 2020). Question resolves pos...
-# Forecasts: 61
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Average S&P 500 return in the 2020s?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5240/average-sp-500-return-in-the-2020s/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index), The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices. The average annual total return and compound annual growth rate of the index, including dividends, since inception in 1926 has been approximately 9.8%, or 6% after inflation; however, there were several years where the index declined over 30%. The index has posted annual increases 70% of the time. However, the index has only made new highs on 5% of trading days, meaning that on 95% of trading days, the index has closed below its all-time high. Historical total returns for the S&P 500 can be found [here](https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/returns) . What will be the 10 year compound annual growth rate for the S&P 500 in the 2020s? This question will resolve as the 10 year [compound annual grow...
-# Forecasts: 74
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In the [Khartoum Resolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khartoum_Resolution) of 1967 the members of the Arab League declared what became known as the "Three Nos": "no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiations with it..." Since then, two members, [Egypt 1979](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt–Israel_peace_treaty) and [Jordan 1987](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Jordan_peace_treaty) have made peace with Israel. In August and September [UAE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–United_Arab_Emirates_peace_agreement) and [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain–Israel_normalization_agreement) have declared intent to normalize relations with Israel. This brings the total of Arab League members with normalized relations with Israel in 2020 to four. 60 years after the Khartoum Resolution, how many member states of the Arab League will have normalized relations with Israel? How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027...
-# Forecasts: 78
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5252/aoc-for-president/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 11%
-Description: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, also known by her initials AOC, is an American politician and a member of the Democratic Party, as well as the [Democratic Socialists of America](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/6/27/17509604/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-democratic-socialist-of-america) . [Having taken her seat aged 29, Ocasio-Cortez is the youngest woman ever to serve in the United States Congress.](https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/06/politics/ocasio-cortez-youngest-woman-ever/index.html) She is a member of ["The Squad"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Squad_(United_States_Congress)), and is decidedly on the left-wing of the Democratic Party. Americans must be aged 35 or over to run for president. AOC will turn 35 a month before election day 2024, meaning that the first three election cycles where she is eligible to run are 2024, 2028, and 2032. Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles? This question resolves positively if Alexandria O...
-# Forecasts: 73
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 40%
-Description: Iran has currently been [accused of violating](https://apnews.com/452a336123d742718027f219f6dd256f) the JCPOA (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and seeks to build nuclear arms. Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030? Question will resolve with the Iranian Regime credibly stating it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports. For these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation. For the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution). The deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do trigger positive resolution. Purchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as "Yes".
-# Forecasts: 240
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 2%
-Description: The lower cloud layer of Venus (47.5–50.5 km) is [an exceptional target for exploration due to the favorable conditions for microbial life,](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783) including moderate temperatures and pressures (∼60°C and 1 atm), and the presence of micron-sized sulfuric acid aerosols. Recently, scientists have discovered [phosphine gas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phosphine) in [the atmosphere of Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Venus) that was earlier [proposed as a biosignature gas in exoplanet atmospheres](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783) . Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035? The question will resolve positive based on strong and conclusive evidence of an extraterrestrial life on Venus. We will apply here the Sagan standard "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence" therefore the discovery must be beyond any reasonable doubt. The question will resolve negative if no evidence of life on Venus ...
-# Forecasts: 199
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the cover of the 2022 IKEA Catalogue feature a human?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5260/humans-on-the-2022-ikea-catalogue-cover/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 62%
-Description: The IKEA Museum website provides [a complete archive of IKEA Catalogues](https://ikeamuseum.com/sv/ikea-kataloger/), currently covering yearl from 1950 to 2021. The first cover to feature a human figure comes in 1970, with some portion of a human then visible on the cover for the following years: 1971, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1980, 1981, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2019, and 2020. That is, in 71 years, 22 of IKEA's yearly catalogues have featured a human on the cover. But the catalogue history has seen a number of 'dry spells'. Changing expectations and fashions in corporate advertising are visible across this period, and IKEA's dominance in the 'affordable' homeware/furniture market shows no immediate signs of declining. The annual catalogue is also seen as a particularly important feature of the company's marketing. It [reportedly](https://web.archive.org/web/20040622103715/http://www.ikea.com/ms/en_GB/about_ikea/press_room/student_info.ht...
-# Forecasts: 44
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5261/tax-rate-for-a-million-dollar-capital-gain/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: From Wikipedia, A capital gain refers to profit that results from a sale of a capital asset, such as stock, bond or real estate, where the sale price exceeds the purchase price. The gain is the difference between a higher selling price and a lower purchase price. Conversely, a capital loss arises if the proceeds from the sale of a capital asset are less than the purchase price. [...] In the United States of America, individuals and corporations pay U.S. federal income tax on the net total of all their capital gains. The tax rate depends on both the investor's tax bracket and the amount of time the investment was held. Short-term capital gains are taxed at the investor's ordinary income tax rate and are defined as investments held for a year or less before being sold. Long-term capital gains, on dispositions of assets held for more than one year, are taxed at a lower rate. This question asks about a hypothetical long-term capital gain of $1,000,000 on January 1st, 2024 for a non-married...
-# Forecasts: 36
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5265/cdc-to-adopt-haes-by-2035/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 21%
-Description: From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_at_Every_Size), Health at Every Size (HAES) is a hypothesis advanced by certain sectors of the fat acceptance movement. It is promoted by the Association for Size Diversity and Health, a tax-exempt nonprofit organization that owns the phrase as a registered trademark. Proponents reject the scientific consensus regarding the negative health effects of greater body weight, and argue that traditional interventions focused on weight loss, such as dieting, do not reliably produce positive health outcomes. The benefits of lifestyle interventions such as nutritious eating and exercise are presumed to be real, but independent of any weight loss they may cause. At the same time, HAES advocates argue that sustained, large-scale weight loss is difficult to the point of effective impossibility for the majority of people, including those who are obese. Advocates of the Health at Every Size hypothesis sometimes cite a [2013 meta analysis](https:/...
-# Forecasts: 29
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Recently, [Hendrycks et. al. proposed a new test to measure a text model's multitask accuracy](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300) . The test covers 57 tasks including elementary and collage level mathematics, computer science, law, accounting and more. For each task, the model is provided only 5 training examples. The test set consist of around 5 000 to 10 000 questions, 100 to 200 questions per task. The test is different from benchmarks like [SuperGLUE](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/), because it intentionally includes questions requiring specialized expertise in a narrow field of knowledge. Many tasks will be difficult for an average human. See example questions below. They found that the very largest GPT-3 model achieves 43.9% accuracy vs. 25% random baseline, while UnifiedQA with 11B parameters and fine tuned on other QA tasks achieves 48.9%. Models also have near-random accuracy on some socially important...
-# Forecasts: 66
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a minimum, with the possibility of sending settlers and terraforming the planet or exploring its moons Phobos and Deimos also considered. Due to orbital mechanics a human Mars mission would need to last many months or even years. Therefore, besides engineering challenges a human psychology and group dynamics becomes an important issue for the mission planning. This question asks: How big will the first crew sent to Mars be? The question will resolve on the launch day based on how many people boarded the spacecraft aiming for Mars. The success of the mission is not relevant to the question resolution, but the mission must be credible. Related questions: --- [Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-...
-# Forecasts: 76
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5287/when-will-america-have-an-emigration-crisis/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The Covid-19 pandemic has illustrated that there are times where many Americans would find it difficult to leave the US for [many other countries they would otherwise desire to travel to](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic) . But is it possible that one day, normal Americans will find it very difficult to quickly and legally leave the US for any other country? While seemingly farfetched, this is the reality that residents of many Soviet-bloc countries had faced historically, and one that still afflicts residents of countries like North Korea today. Define an emigration crisis as: ---An American citizen in good standing with a valid passport cannot purchase a plane ticket and leave the country to any other country within 48 hours. When will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis? To operationalize this further, --- For something to count as an emigration crisis, consider the hypothetical situation where >=10 Metaculus use...
-# Forecasts: 69
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5300/revival-chance-at-alcor-vs-cryonics-institute/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: As of the time of writing this question, the two major providers of cryopreservation in the US are [Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), with [181 patients and 1,317 members](https://www.alcor.org/library/alcor-membership-statistics/), and the [Cryonics Institute](https://www.cryonics.org/), with [177 patients and 1,859 members](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/member-statistics/) . These organisations might differ in the chance of reviving their patients if the initial quality of cryopreservations is higher in one or the other, or if one organisation is likely to last longer than the other, or if when revival becomes possible one is better able to arrange this than the other. What is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active? If no patients from Alcor or the Cryonics Insitute are revived, this resolves ambiguously. If only patients from Alcor are revived, this resolves above the upper end of the sca...
-# Forecasts: 28
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5301/a-city-exodus/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: As people increasingly get used to remote working during lockdown, there have been [claims](https://time.com/5851978/pandemic-plague-henry-viii/) about the [effect](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/31/success/leaving-the-city-for-suburbs/index.html) this will have on the shape of work in the long-term. It is at least possible that people will increasingly move to live outside of major cities, and then work remotely for at least a part of the time. At the last available estimate (April 2019), the population of London was [8,908,081](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland) and the population.of England [56,286,961](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland) This question therefore asks: What fraction of England’s population will live ...
-# Forecasts: 34
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company. Since a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership. The question asks: When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users? This question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled: 1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding a self-driving taxi as a normal client. 2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. 3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. The rides do not need to be provided by the same company. Use of geo-fencing is allowed. Similar questions: --- [When wil...
-# Forecasts: 100
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company. Since a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership. Tesla, Inc. has announced they are planning to launch their robo-taxis service by 2020. "I feel very confident predicting autonomous robo-taxi for Tesla next year. Not in all jurisdictions, because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere, but I'm confident we'll have at least regulatory approvals somewhere, literally next year" -Elon Musk in April 2019. The question asks: When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users? This question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled: 1--At least 5 Metaculus user...
-# Forecasts: 156
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company. Since a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership. In April 2017, Waymo launched an early rider program in Phoenix, Arizona, which signed up 400 users to try out a test edition of Waymo's transportation service. Over the next year, 400 riders used the Waymo service, providing feedback. In May 2018, Waymo announced that it plans to allow everyone in Phoenix to request a driverless ride before the end of the year. On December 5, 2018, the company launched a commercial self-driving car service called "Waymo One"; users in the Phoenix metropolitan area use an app to request a pick-up. By November 2019, ...
-# Forecasts: 81
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5311/lesswrong-red-button-pressed-on-petrov-day/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 53%
-Description: [Petrov Day](http://petrovday.com/) is the yearly anniversary of the [1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident) on September 26th, in which Stanislav Petrov received alerts that five nuclear weapons had been launched by the US, later found to be caused by the mistaken detection of high-altitude clouds. Petrov suspected that it was a false alarm and, against protocol, decided not to send reports up the chain of command; this decision may have prevented a full-scale nuclear war between the US and the Soviet Union. One proposed way to celebrate Petrov day is to [create a metaphor for the situation Petrov was in](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XJxwFMSL5TPN2usC6/modes-of-petrov-day), with a big red button with much lower stakes: And you can also play on hard mode: "During said ceremony, unveil a large red button. If anybody presses the button, the ceremony is over. Go home. Do not speak." Lesswrong has hosted an event ...
-# Forecasts: 62
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5313/planet-nine-discovery-by-before-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 33%
-Description: Note: question text is copied directly from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/) . This version has an extended resolution date. In early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine. [Batygin and Brown's paper](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds ...
-# Forecasts: 52
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5316/vit-d-as-covid-best-practice/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 23%
-Description: Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/) . Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-fo...
-# Forecasts: 83
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 33%
-Description: Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/) . Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-fo...
-# Forecasts: 117
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5318/nih-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 40%
-Description: Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/) . Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-fo...
-# Forecasts: 75
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5319/dutch-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 33%
-Description: Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/) . Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-fo...
-# Forecasts: 43
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 42%
-Description: The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “ [Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/) ”, which raises the question of l...
-# Forecasts: 98
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5344/nobel-prize-for-string-theory-before-2050/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 23%
-Description: [String theory](https://math.berkeley.edu/~kwray/papers/string_theory.pdf) roughly speaking, replaces point particles by strings, which can be either open or closed (depends on the particular type of particle that is being replaced by the string), whose length, or string length, is approximately 10^(−33) cm. Also, in string theory, one replaces Feynman diagrams by surfaces, and wordlines become worldsheets. In [late 2019](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/string-theory-does-not-win-a-nobel-and-i-win-a-bet/) John Horgan won a 2002 [longbets.com](http://longbets.com) bet with physicist Michio Kaku that by 2020 no unified theory of physics will win a Nobel Prize. Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050? This question resolves positively if a Nobel Prize in Physics is widely considered by credible media to have been awarded to someone for their work on string theory before 2050.
-# Forecasts: 55
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5350/will-erdogan-be-re-elected-president/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 68%
-Description: Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014. He was [last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Turkish_presidential_election), and has already expressed interest for the next elections with his [Vision 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#/media/File:RTE_se%C3%A7im_pankart%C4%B1.jpg) However, his AKP party lost the [municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_local_elections) suggesting Erdogan might lose the next election Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey? Resolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elected President of Turkey following the conclusion of the 2023 Presidential Election (or previously if elections are anticipated). Resolves negatively if for any reason Er...
-# Forecasts: 72
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5351/major-wars-in-the-2020s/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Since the end of the Second World War, the number of persons who have died from armed conflict around the world has been [trending downward](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), especially since 2003. However, many flashpoints remain, with the potential for armed conflict to break out between such nations as India and China, Egypt and Ethiopia, and Russia and Ukraine, as well as the potential for civil wars in unstable nations. During the years 2010-2019, 4 armed conflicts began that led to 25,000+ fatalities by 31 December 2019: the Syrian Civil War (~550,000+), the South Sudanese Civil War (~383,000), the Iraqi Civil War of 2014-2017 (~160,000) and the Yemeni Civil War (112,000+). This question asks: How many armed conflicts will begin between 1 January 2021 and 1 January 2031 that will lead to at least 25,000 fatalities before 31 December 2031? How many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031? The question will resolve based on reported fatalities on 31 December 2032 as re...
-# Forecasts: 49
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 20%
-Description: [Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris) : Kamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. If Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination. Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election? If ...
-# Forecasts: 228
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Kyrgystan currently has a [democracy index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) of 4.89 and is considered a "hybrid regime" meaning elements of democracy and authoritarianism co-exist. After what many viewed as a flawed election, protests have [occured]() across the country and the results of the election have been [annulled](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030) . What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022? This question will resolve to the democracy of Kyrgystan as reported by the [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economist_Intelligence_Unit) in its 2022 report. If no report is published in 2022 by the EIU, the question will resolve ambiguously.
-# Forecasts: 32
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5380/will-john-mcafee-go-to-prison/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 59%
-Description: Techcrunch, 6th October 2020: [John McAfee arrested after DOJ indicts crypto millionaire for tax evasion](https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/05/john-mcafee-arrested-after-doj-indicts-crypto-millionaire-for-tax-evasion/?guccounter=1) : Cybersecurity entrepreneur and crypto personality John McAfee’s wild ride could be coming to an end after he was arrested in Spain today, and now faces extradition to the U.S. over charges spanning tax evasion and fraud. The SEC accuses McAfee of being paid more than $23.1 million worth of cryptocurrency assets for promoting a number of ICO token sales without disclosing that he was being paid to do so. Furthermore [the DOJ has levied a number of counts of tax evasion against McAfee](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/john-mcafee-indicted-tax-evasion), saying that he “willfully attempted to evade” payment of income taxes owed to the federal government. [In a brief announcing the arrest and unsealing of indictment documents](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/john-mca...
-# Forecasts: 43
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5405/end-of-north-sentinelese-isolation/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The [North Sentinel Islanders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinelese) are one of the world's last ' [uncontacted peoples](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncontacted_peoples) ': they have had extremely limited contact with the outside world, and have actively, violently refused attempts to approach them. The most recent attempt at outside contact by a Christian missionary, John Allen Chau, ended when the Sentinelese killed him on [17 November 2018](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/11/21/american-believed-dead-after-encounter-with-remote-indian-tribe-hostile-outsiders/) . Indian authorities attempted to recover his body, but ultimately [abandoned those efforts](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/28/india-body-john-allen-chau-missionary-killed-by-sentinelese-tribe) . Attempts at contact have been criticised on a number of fronts, including the likelihood that contact would expose the Sentinelese to deadly pathogens. The Government of India requires a permit to visit th...
-# Forecasts: 19
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will there be a complete 4 year interval by 2050 in which world output doubles?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5406/world-output-doubles-in-4-years-by-2050/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 30%
-Description: As of 2018, it's taken [about 16 years for the world economic output to double](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) . So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence. An important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example. Paul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same ar...
-# Forecasts: 53
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/conservative-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 48%
-Description: The [Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom, commonly known as the "Conservatives" or "Tories". As of 2020, it has been the governing party since 2010. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world. Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030? This question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively. Note: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/) . If, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London. If the party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new ...
-# Forecasts: 36
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/labour-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 43%
-Description: The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom that has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. The party's platform emphasises greater state intervention, social justice and strengthening workers' rights. As of 2020, it was last in power from 1997 to 2010. Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030? This question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Labour Party. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively. Note: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/) . If, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London. If the Labour party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party. In case the Labour party does not continue in its ...
-# Forecasts: 39
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5415/nk-launches-icbm-again-before-2022/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 75%
-Description: Over the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures. Despite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media) In October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_...
-# Forecasts: 150
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1 trillion before 2027?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5423/stripe-reaches-1tr-valuation-before-2027/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 8%
-Description: [Stripe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stripe_(company)) is an American financial services and SaaS company headquartered in San Francisco, California, United States. On October 10th, 2020, Paul Graham Tweeted: I'm going to risk calling it. The feeling of deja vu is too strong. Stripe is the next Google. Someone asked him to clarify his prediction: "By market cap or evil?", and Paul Graham responded: By market cap, although when they're sufficiently big they will automatically be called evil, just as Google is. Paul Graham did not indicate the time-frame within which he expects this to happen, but let's say that if his prediction were correct, they'd reach a Google-level valuation by 2027. Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1tr before 2027? This question resolves positively if credible financial media sources indicate that Stripe achieved a $1tr valuation (in 2020 USD) before the end of day, 2026-12-31. The valuation will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used CPI for the US. I...
-# Forecasts: 57
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will Winifred Wagner's correspondence with Adolph Hitler be published?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5425/release-date-of-wagners-letters-with-hitler/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [Winifred Wagner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winifred_Wagner), the daughter-in-law of composer Richard Wagner, was good friends with Adolph Hitler. It is possible she provided him with the paper he used to write Mein Kampf while in prison. Yet she [intervened](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/3297001/British-Wagner-saved-Jews-from-her-friend-Hitler.html) to save Jews from arrest and personally told Hitler that she was "disgusted" by their persecution. Wagner and Hitler corresponded for over a 20 year period but the letters are currently held by Winifred Wagner's granddaughter, Amélie Lafferentz-Hohmann, who refuses to release them on the grounds that they are " [explosive](http://www.the-wagnerian.com/2012/08/the-winifredhitler-letters-katharina.html) ." When will Winifred Wagner's correspondence with Adolph Hitler be published? This question resolves when the letters in question are made public.
-# Forecasts: 19
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5427/tax-on-childlessness-in-russia-before-2024/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 20%
-Description: The [Tax on childlessness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_on_childlessness) was a natalist policy in the USSR, Poland and Romania during certain periods in the 20th century. Recently, several public organizations urged the Russian government to re-enact that, or a similar, policy: --- [Russia may introduce tax on childlessness](https://investforesight.com/russia-may-introduce-tax-on-childlessness/) ; --- [The Ministry of Finance commented on the idea of introducing a tax on childlessness in Russia](https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-10-12-the-ministry-of-finance-commented-on-the-idea-of-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bintroducing-a-tax-on-childlessness-in-russia.rkvOu1MGPv.html) . Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election? The question resolves positively if the Russian government introduces, prior to the 2024 presidential election in Russia, either: ---An explicit tax on childlessness. ---A tax levied on each person except those...
-# Forecasts: 64
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before the end of its term on 31st October 2024?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5431/will-the-eu-announce-by-2024-going-cage-free/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 36%
-Description: This question has been posed by [Rethink Priorities](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/), a non-profit research organisation, as part of their work on European Union animal welfare policies. European Union (EU) legislation currently allows the use of "enriched" cages for egg-laying hens as well as alternative cage-free systems through [Directive 1999/74/EC](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dir/1999/74/oj) . EU statistics indicate that [50.5%](https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/eggs-dashboard_en.pdf) of egg-laying hens in the EU are cage-free. In July 2020, the European Commission [tasked](https://www.ciwf.eu/news/2020/07/eu-agency-to-look-at-welfare-of-animals-in-caged-systems?utm_campaign%3DECI%26utm_source%3Dtwitter%26utm_medium%3Dciwf) the European Food and Safety Authority (EFSA) with investigating the welfare of cages for laying hens to provide a sound scientific basis by December 2022 for 'future legislative decisions'. The EFSA websi...
-# Forecasts: 79
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5432/month-with-peak-of-covid-19-cases-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak is an ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 13 October 2020, more than 30 million cases have been confirmed. More than 1 million deaths have been directly attributed to the disease. Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases? Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the best available data for the whole world in 2021 as made available by WHO before the end of March 2022. The month with the highest number of new cases will be selected. The new cases in a month should be computed as a simple difference between the best estimate of cases at the end and at the beginning of that month. Preferably based on Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports - situation in numbers, total cases, globally. For example the number of new cases in February 2020 (75...
-# Forecasts: 192
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [Coinmarketcap.com](https://coinmarketcap.com/) is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at [the total market cap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/), i.e. the summed value in USD of every coin's worth. As of 2020 October 14th, this value is 359B USD, down from all time high of 831B USD on 2018 Jan. 7th. The total market cap is usually highly correlated with the value of Bitcoin, but if the market share of Bitcoin falls drastically, this is no guarantee ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)). What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD) ---Value is taken from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) in billion USD. ---If the site goes down before resolution, Metaculus admins will choose a suitable replacement. If none is found, this resolves ambiguous.
-# Forecasts: 147
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How much will interest in machine translation grow in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5454/growth-in-interest-for-machine-translation/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Machine translation [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Machine_translation), is a sub-field of computational linguistics that investigates the use of software to translate text or speech from one language to another. On a basic level, MT performs mechanical substitution of words in one language for words in another, but that alone rarely produces a good translation because recognition of whole phrases and their closest counterparts in the target language is needed. Not all words in one language have equivalent words in another language, and many words have more than one meaning. Solving this problem with corpus statistical and neural techniques is a rapidly-growing field that is leading to better translations, handling differences in linguistic typology, translation of idioms, and the isolation of anomalies. How much will interest in machine translation grow in 2021? Growth is measured by number of results obtained by Google Scholar for the term "machine translation" (without quotes) f...
-# Forecasts: 35
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5457/date-next-scotus-vacancy-arises/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States. Established pursuant to Article III of the U.S. Constitution in 1789, it has original jurisdiction over a small range of cases, such as suits between two or more states, and those involving ambassadors. It also has ultimate (and largely discretionary) appellate jurisdiction over all federal court and state court cases that involve a point of federal constitutional or statutory law. [The Court has the power of judicial review,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marbury_v._Madison) the ability to invalidate a statute for violating a provision of the Constitution or an executive act for being unlawful. However, it may act only within the context of a case in an area of law over which it has jurisdiction. The Court may decide cases having political overtones, but it has ruled that it does not have power to decide...
-# Forecasts: 131
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will be the next S&P 500 correction?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5458/next-sp-500-correction/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: A correction is [defined as](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correction.asp), a decline of 10% or more in the price of a security from its most recent peak. When will be the next S&P 500 correction? The S&P 500 is said to have entered a correction if the closing price is less than or equal to 90% of the closing price at its highest point. This question resolves on the date of the next correction after this question opens.
-# Forecasts: 69
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5459/psilocybin-not-schedule-i--2036/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 72%
-Description: There is a considerable difference of opinion around the safety and potential medical use of psilocybin. In 2020, Psilocybin is Schedule I, the same category as Heroin and the most restrictive category of the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act) [This article](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6007659/) discusses aspects of the debate. Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036? A credible source will need to post a link to a DEA source similar to [this one](https://www.justice.gov/archive/ndic/pubs6/6038/) which mentions psilocybin in some category other than Schedule I. This question will resolve ambiguously if the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act) is repealed and another law defines a similarly regulated category, or if the DEA ceases to classify drugs.
-# Forecasts: 33
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will AI be able to learn to play Montezuma's Revenge in less than 30 min?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5460/ai-rapidly-learning-to-play-a-simple-game/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: related questions: --- [When will an AI be able to explore all the rooms on the first level of Montezuma’s revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/) --- [What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6230/sota-montezumas-revenge-2022-01-14/) --- [When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) In 2012, researchers proposed an [The Arcade Learning Environment](https://arxiv.org/abs/1207.4708) consisting of Atari 2600 games. Out of these games one stood out as the most challenging for deep learning models - [Montezuma's Revenge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mont...
-# Forecasts: 14
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 27%
-Description: The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election. Since the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election. Erin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada ...
-# Forecasts: 49
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5463/mars-sample-mission-vs-starship/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 18%
-Description: NASA's first successful lander was the Viking 1 lander in 1975. Since then, NASA's missions to Mars have increased in number and complexity. While NASA's stated ultimate objective is bringing humans to Mars and back, an intermediate goal is that of [sample-return](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_sample-return_mission#NASA_proposals), bringing a sample of material from the surface of Mars back to Earth. Given a 2-year trip each way, a mission tenatively planned to launch in 2026 would return samples to Earth around 2030. SpaceX has been working on its own "Mars" program, the Starship. Elon Musk has claimed that the Starship may launch for Mars as soon as [2024](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1317230110391652352) . Such a mission would land on Mars in 2026. Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars? The resolution of this question depends on the relative timing of two events: 1) A mission substantially (>30%...
-# Forecasts: 40
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5466/sneerclub-subscribers-by-112022/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [reddit.com/r/sneerclub](http://reddit.com/r/sneerclub) is a Reddit community devoted to criticizing members of the [rationalist community](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Rationalist_movement), and adjacent communities. [https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub](https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub) tracks their subscriber count over time. How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022? This question resolves as the number of subscribers on /r/sneerclub on January 1st, 2022.
-# Forecasts: 48
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing) . Amongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four: 1-- [Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf) . The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words. 2-- [WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843) . WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles. 3-- [WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843) . The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set. 4-- [1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf) . The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 ...
-# Forecasts: 17
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5492/most-popular-img-classification-benchmark-22/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [Image classification](https://paperswithcode.com/task/image-classification) is the process of analysing pixels or vectors within an image and identifying the 'class' the image falls under. Image classification is one of many tasks within the field of [computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision) . Amongst the most widely used benchmarks for testing image classifiers are the following five: 1-- [ImageNet](http://www.image-net.org/) is an image database organized according to the WordNet hierarchy, in which each node of the hierarchy is depicted by hundreds and thousands of images. 2-- [STL-10](https://cs.stanford.edu/~acoates/stl10/) is an image recognition dataset for developing unsupervised feature learning, deep learning, self-taught learning algorithms. 3-- [CIFAR-10](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIFAR-10) contains 60,000 32x32 color images in 10 different classes. The 10 different classes represent airplanes, cars, birds, cats, deer, dogs, frogs, horses, sh...
-# Forecasts: 19
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5506/mars-gdp-exceeds-earths/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: When Columbus sailed to America in 1492, the "New world" had a fraction of the [population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history#/media/File:WorldPopulation.png) and [GDP](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:1_AD_to_2003_AD_Historical_Trends_in_global_distribution_of_GDP_China_India_Western_Europe_USA_Middle_East.png) of Europe. At the time it may have seemed implausible to guess that the gap would ever be overcome. However after a series of World Wars, the relative fortune of Europe declined while America --rich in resources and isolated by two oceans-- continued to grow. Ultimately, the GDP of the USA alone would be greater than that of Western Europe after WWII. It may seem similarly improbable that Mars --a planet so inhospitable it is inhabited only by robots-- would ever surpass Earth. But, history is long. If a self-sustaining colony is ever founded on Mars, it would have some chance of exceeding Earth's GDP based solely on the possibility of calamity on Earth. ...
-# Forecasts: 75
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5509/detection-of-phosphine-in-venus-atmosphere/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 12%
-Description: [In September 2020, it was announced that phosphine, a potential biomarker, had been detected in the atmosphere of Venus.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-1174-4) There is no known abiotic source of phosphine on Venus that could explain the presence of the substance there in the concentrations detected (~20 ppb). However, [a recent independent re-analysis of the ALMA data claims that data provide no statistical evidence for phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus](https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.09761) . There is also a plethora of other work discussed at [Centauri Dreams](https://www.centauri-dreams.org/2020/10/22/back-into-the-clouds-of-venus/) . Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023? This question will resolve positive if an independent observation done after September 2020 will unambiguously confirm presence of phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus. We will accept any credible independent detection with significance above 5 sigma, but...
-# Forecasts: 127
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: With genetic predictors of a phenotypic trait, it is possible to select embryos during an in vitro fertilisation process to increase or decrease that trait. Some have proposed that, using polygenic scores for IQ, embryo selection could enable cognitive enhancement in humans [(Shulman and Bostrom, 2014)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf) . This could have major social, economic and scientific implications [(ibid.)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf) . When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence? This question resolves positively as the date of the birth of the 100th baby who were developed from an embryo selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. Positive resolution does not require the selection to be based solely on polygenic scores for intelligence—other factors could be taken into account. Positive resolution requires the application of such procedures to aim for selectin...
-# Forecasts: 54
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Paul Christiano recently [wrote](https://www.facebook.com/paulfchristiano/posts/10224566865496919), I don't know how far you could reduce the administrative costs of growing the [Supreme Court of the United States]. I could imagine having only a few judges be full-time while most judges vote periodically by ballot. If the court is politically important and costs are low, then you could easily imagine growing the court to dozens, hundreds, and then thousands before you really changed the cost-benefit analysis. You would eventually be bottlenecked by the availability of plausibly-qualified candidates under current standards. But I'm not aware of any real constitutional requirements to serve as a justice, and so you could have a race to the bottom on standards in parallel with a ballooning court. Foreseeing that outcome, a party in power might decide to directly increase the size of the court to the point where further expansion would be prohibitively costly. (And each party might be incl...
-# Forecasts: 97
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5534/labor-seats-after-next-victorian-election/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Led by Premier Daniel Andrews, the Australian Labor Party did very well in the 2018 Victorian state election, winning 57.3% of the two-party preferred vote and [55 of 88 seats in the lower house](https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/results/state-election-results/2018-state-election) (the Legislative Assembly), i.e. 62.5% of the seats. Victoria is the second largest state in Australia. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has come to dominate the Andrews Government's term so far. Andrews has been praised for his [cautious COVID-19 response](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/19/hold-on-one-more-week-victoria-daniel-andrews-is-correct-to-take-a-cautious-approach) and [his personal endurance in addressing the pandemic,](https://theconversation.com/andrews-under-fire-why-an-activist-premiers-greatest-challenges-may-yet-lie-ahead-146838) but Victoria is the state that has been worst-affected by the virus' second wave - which can be, at least in part, [attributed to the state government's h...
-# Forecasts: 37
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Uber [recently announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54079727#:~:text=Uber%20has%20said%20that%20all,the%20challenge%20of%20climate%20change.) in September 2020 that it plans to have all taxis available through the app be electric by 2040 globally, and 2030 for Europe, America and Canada. The option for an electric vehicle is currently available in 15 US and Canadian cities, and the company expects to open this option in another 65 cities globally by the end of 2020. Uber is also working to arrange the transfer of vehicles for its driver by offering discounts through select companies (Renault and Nissan in Europe and GM in Canada and US) and promising [$800M in support](https://nypost.com/2020/09/08/uber-vows-to-have-all-electric-cars-by-2040-help-drivers-make-switch/) through 2025 for drivers to make the switch. As Hawkins from [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/17/21294040/lyft-electric-vehicle-ev-100-percent-2030) writes: “Research suggests that the average ride-hai...
-# Forecasts: 36
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5538/california-zero-emission-sales-by-2035/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 50%
-Description: In September 2020, Governor Newsom announced in an [executive order](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/) that by 2035 all new passenger cars and trucks (which do not include medium or heavy duty vehicles) sold in California will need to be zero-emission vehicles. Governor Brown, who in 2012 implemented the executive order for the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Program, defined a [ZEV](https://www.transportpolicy.net/standard/california-zev/) in 2013 as: “including hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) and plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), which include both pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).” The [California Governor’s office](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-i...
-# Forecasts: 27
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many DC Fast public charging outlets/connections will be available in the United States by 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5539/dc-fast-public-charging-stations-by-2022/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Level 3 charging, also known as DC Fast charging, typically can provide [124 miles in 30 minutes, or 249 miles in an hour](https://chargehub.com/en/electric-car-charging-guide.html) using 50kW of power. The expected ratio of EVs to charging stations in 2021 is [28.2](https://evadoption.com/ev-charging-stations-statistics/), a significant barrier to EV adoption by the general public who often experience range anxiety. If consumers feel there are not enough public charging stations, fewer of them will buy electric vehicles. This prompts the need for massive charging infrastructure to be built within America as well as across the world. Previous reports for the number of public DC Fast charging stations place approximately [9,898 outlets/connections](https://evadoption.com/ev-charging-stations-statistics/) as of March 2019 (retrieved from the same AFDC map in the resolution criteria). This is a leap up from the [7,223 connections](https://evadoption.com/ev-charging-stations-statistics/)...
-# Forecasts: 56
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5540/scotus-impeachment-before-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 7.000000000000001%
-Description: A Supreme Court impeachment has only happened once in the history of the US: Justice Samuel Chase in 1804. However, he was only impeached by the House of Representatives-- the Senate aquitted him. Thus, a precedent was set for judicial independence, that justices serve for life without political interference. We live in unprecedented times, and that precedent could change. Article 3, section 1 states "judges [...] shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour"; in other words, impeachment is still constitutional. Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030? The question resolves positively if any Supreme Court Justice is impeached and removed by the House and Senate before Jan 1st, 2030. An impeachment by just the House, overturned by the Senate, will not resolve the question positively. Nor will any vacancy by resignation, retirement, or death.
-# Forecasts: 68
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5541/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-at-toyko/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 73%
-Description: The [2020 Olympic games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Summer_Olympics) is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports. At the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports). The medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by: 1--Number of Gold Medals 2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals 3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals The US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021? Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021? This question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo O...
-# Forecasts: 55
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5542/japan-host-games-advantage/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 40%
-Description: There is a phenomenon at the Olympics [where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/) Japan is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. Their last [5 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_at_the_Olympics) : 2000: 15th 2004: 5th 2008: 8th 2012: 11th 2016: 6th Will they come in the Top 4 again? Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics This question will resolve positively if Japan place in the top 4 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2021. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2021. The medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by: 1--Number of Gold Medals 2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals 3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals
-# Forecasts: 49
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5546/success-rate-for-national-carbon-neutrality/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Per the European Parliament, “Carbon neutrality means having a balance between emitting carbon and absorbing carbon from the atmosphere in carbon sinks. Removing carbon oxide from the atmosphere and then storing it is known as carbon sequestration. In order to achieve net zero emissions, all worldwide greenhouse gas emissions will have to be counterbalanced by carbon sequestration.” In 2020 a number of countries made commitments to achieve carbon neutrality including the European Union, and China. As of late 2020, at least 25 countries have pledged carbon neutrality by 2050. On the other hand, only two countries have achieved carbon neutrality: the forest covered Bhutan and Suriname. Given the 30 year time-horizon, and the unclear path to carbon neutrality, it remains ambiguous how many countries will follow through on their carbon neutrality pledges. What percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge? This question resolves as the percentage of ...
-# Forecasts: 19
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 79%
-Description: The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of "Dow Jones Index of Happiness". According to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00. Historical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing) . Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020? This question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020. Note: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the "English-speaking world".
-# Forecasts: 72
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5554/5th-ave-apple-store-closure-during-winter/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 21%
-Description: On October 29, 2020, CNBC host Scott Wapner [tweeted](https://twitter.com/ScottWapnerCNBC) : Hearing Tim Cook tell @CNBCJosh that the virus makes it too hard to give guidance highlights a big risk for the economy — that while we won’t lock down again, businesses could decide to shut their stores for periods rather than risk their customers or employees getting sick. Let's focus on Apple, since the company presumably has the resources and wherewithal to be able to implement best practice preventive measures, and understanding the precautions that they choose to implement may help shed light on the likely decisions of similar retail businesses. The "always open" flagship [5th Ave Apple Store](https://www.apple.com/retail/fifthavenue/) location in New York City is providing face masks to shoppers, enforcing social distancing, doing temperature checks, and performing continuous cleaning, according to the store's website. But will these measures be enough to prevent a significant store clos...
-# Forecasts: 191
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 60%
-Description: [The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee) . Will they go ahead? Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021? The question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021. An Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive)
-# Forecasts: 796
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5558/squad20-perfomance-2022/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250) . In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering. Currently, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of th...
-# Forecasts: 56
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5559/when-will-lyft-be-80-electrified/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ======= In June 2020, Lyft announced [plans to electrify 100% of its fleet by 2030](https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/leading-the-transition-to-zero-emissions) . A month before, the California Air Resources Board had floated targets requiring 70-80% of miles driven by both Lyft and Uber in the state be in EV's by 2030, though in July, this number was [lowered to 60%](https://www.kqed.org/science/1967315/california-dials-back-plan-to-require-uber-lyft-go-electric) . Lyft's own announcement is non-binding, but it conveys an intention to electrify beyond what the state of California may require: The shift to 100% electric vehicles (EVs) for Lyft will mean transitioning all vehicles used on the Lyft platform over the next ten years to all-electric or other zero-emission technologies. This includes cars in the Express Drive rental car partner program for rideshare drivers, our consumer rental car program for riders, our autonomous vehicle program, and drivers’ personal cars used on t...
-# Forecasts: 31
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5560/difference-in-top-ev-model-sales-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Electric vehicles are notoriously expensive, a reason that often pushes the average consumer to buy combustion engine automobiles or the cheaper hybrid options. A major reason for the high pricing points of EVs are the lithium-ion batteries which fuel them. [51% of the cost of an electric vehicle resides in its powertrain](https://insideevs.com/features/396979/how-much-powertrain-cost-ev/), which includes the car’s battery, controllers, inverters, and transmission equipment. With new [announcements from Tesla’s battery day](https://insideevs.com/news/446245/tesla-slide-25000-car-lfp-batteries/), and a publicized shift to the use and production of lithium iron phosphate batteries (LFPs) and high nickel batteries, electric vehicles are predicted to see their production costs fall, thereby bringing down the overall market price. Low prices could dramatically impact consumer adoption and increase EV production, which could help change the tide of carbon emissions in protecting the environ...
-# Forecasts: 88
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5572/electric-bus-registrations-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Transportation contributes heavily to greenhouse gas emissions from carbon dioxide. In 2017, road transportation contributed approximately [21%](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles_en) of the EU’s carbon emissions. Public transport has long been thought to help [lower individual passenger car emissions](https://www.nationalexpresstransit.com/blog/why-is-public-transportation-good-for-the-environment/) as they reduce person-miles per gallon and the amount of space taken up on the road. While diesel powered buses are far from the cleanest vehicles, movements towards adopting electric public transportation could vastly improve public transport’s emissions. China has been the leader in electric busing and public transportation, with [72 thousand](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) new electric bus registrations in 2019 alone. By 2017, China’s bus fleet was comprised of approximately [17% electric buses](https://www.sustainable-bus.com/electric-bus/elect...
-# Forecasts: 39
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5573/us-state-race-in-public-charging-outlets/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: California offers [28,223](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) electric charging outlets of every level through a variety of public charging stations. These stations are essential infrastructure required for the widespread use of electric vehicles, and remain a critical factor in EV adoption. In a 2020 survey by Castrol, they found that [64% of consumers](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mainstream-ev-adoption-5-speedbumps-to-overcome/) on average (from countries in the Asian, European, and North American regions) would buy an electric vehicle if charging infrastructure existed to support their driving habits. There are currently [89,970 outlets](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&fuel=ELEC&ev_levels=all) on public charging stations of every level across the United States, with California representing almost one third of that. Several other states such as Texas, Florida, Oregon, and New York are followers of California’s trend, however, the number of public...
-# Forecasts: 23
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5574/china-to-reach-nev-14-credit-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 75%
-Description: China instituted the [NEV (New Energy Vehicle) mandate](https://www.iea.org/policies/3335-new-energy-vehicle-nev-mandate-policy) “which promotes new energy vehicles, such as electric vehicles, and provides additional compliance flexibility to existing fuel consumption regulations.” This mandate applies to passenger vehicles only, and currently 60% of global car sales from China are covered by it. The NEV mandate specified credit targets for 2019 (10%) and 2020 (12%), but has recently expanded targets to 2021-23 as well. The International Energy Association (IEA) states that: “Each NEV is assigned a specific number of credits depending on metrics including electric range, energy efficiency, and rated power of fuel cell systems. Higher performance vehicles get more credits, capped at six credits per vehicle. These NEV credit targets thus may result in NEV market share falling into a range of values based on fleet mix. Assuming that all manufacturers produce vehicles with a per-vehicle ...
-# Forecasts: 32
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Markets and Markets reports that: “The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.” These numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. The EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences. The compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things. What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally ov...
-# Forecasts: 44
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5577/germany-to-overtake-us-in-ev-registrations/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 59%
-Description: Changing restrictions in the EU to achieve [climate neutrality](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en) and prevent the increase of global warming and carbon emissions by 2050 have increased the speed of EV adoption throughout Europe. As reported through [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/about-us/history.html), a german non-profit dedicated to transferring already existing knowledge from fundamental research in the fields of renewable energy and rotational energy conversion to market-ready, application-based technology, Germany has increased its new EV registrations by approximately [500% between 2015 and 2019](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) . The United States in contrast has barely tripled their registrations in the same time period. However, the US still holds a lead of three times the amount of registrations than Germany as of 2019. The United States, in contrast, has no federal regulations for carbon emissions or goals for national car...
-# Forecasts: 38
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/) . With new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/) . In Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-...
-# Forecasts: 95
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the price of neuropreservation be at Alcor in 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5585/neuropreservation-price-at-alcor-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: From [Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/library/case-for-neuropreservation/), Neuropreservation, quite simply, is low temperature preservation of the brain of a terminal patient. All efforts in neuropreservation are devoted to the singular purpose of preserving the brain, and only the brain, in the best possible condition allowed by present technology. The disposition of other tissue only matters inasmuch it impacts upon the condition of the brain. As of writing this question, Alcor [charges a minimum](https://www.alcor.org/docs/alcor-form-schedule-a-required-costs-and-cryopreservation-fund-minimums.pdf) of $80,000 for neuropreservation, often paid with life insurance. For people purchasing life insurance for cryonics, it's important to ensure that the funding is above the minimum amount required for preservation. However, the price has changed in the past. Therefore, it's critical that cryonics enthusiasts anticipate future price changes, so that they can afford the procedure when they nee...
-# Forecasts: 43
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5587/ai-ny-times-best-seller-before-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 35%
-Description: From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model), A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. The New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list), widely considered the preeminent list of best-selling books in the United States. It has been published weekly in The New York Times Book Review since October 12, 1931. In the 21st century, it has evolved into multiple lists, grouped by genre and format, including fiction and non-fiction, hardcover, paperback and electronic. Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030? A book is said to have been written by a language model if a language model wrote at least 99% of the text contained in the main section in the book, excluding a potential foreword, copyright notice, table of contents, and other non-essential book sections. The main text must also contain at least 20,000 words. Stylistic edits...
-# Forecasts: 57
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent. What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024? This question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024.
-# Forecasts: 33
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 election?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 55.00000000000001%
-Description: [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections) : The 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans. Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections? This resolves positive if, on February 1 2023, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.
-# Forecasts: 171
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 35%
-Description: Facebook is the world's most popular social media platform. In recent years, they have added a number of domains to their filter. Filtered domains cannot be posted on the site. While many such filtered domains are spam-related, some [hate groups](https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/groups) have also been banned. For instance, American Renaissance, an American white supremacist organization, has its links blocked on Facebook along with related sites. Youtube has similarly undertaken such bans. Previously this year, they banned the Stefan Molyneux show channel ([see prior question on his Twitter also being banned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4733/will-stefan-molyneux-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/)). Because of such bans, users who like such content are migrating to other sites, such as Bitchute, which in general are much more sympathetic to the far-right. Bitchute has been described by the [Anti-Defamation League](https://www.adl.org/blog/bitchu...
-# Forecasts: 30
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Parallel question for: [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/), [Greece](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/) . The novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. The [Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project)](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) platform monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Denmark has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change with [the new mink coronavirus strain](https://www.thelocal.dk/20201104/denmark-to-cull-millions-of-minks-over-mutated-coronavirus) . What will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Denmark for obser...
-# Forecasts: 77
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/) . The novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change. What will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? ---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and...
-# Forecasts: 131
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Greece](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/) . The novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Hungary has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change. What will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? ---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and...
-# Forecasts: 82
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5646/next-minimum-wage-raise/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The last increase to the federal minimum wage was July 24, 2009. [From 1997 to 2007](https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage/history/chart), the minimum wage was $5.15 until it was incrementally increased to its current level, $7.25 per hour. In terms of the USD's purchasing power, the minimum wage has been significantly higher in the past. In 1968, the minimum wage was $1.60 per hour, which in 2020 dollars would be aproximately $12.00. Joe Biden (presumed president-elect) has [pledged to increase the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/) . When will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised? The resolution will occur on the date that the increase takes effect. Any increase over $7.25 USD (not inflation-adjusted) will be a valid resolution. If the minimum wage is reduced or abolished, the question resolves ambiguously. The question will be retroactively closed 3 days before a vote in the senate which passes legislation raising the minimum wage. A...
-# Forecasts: 44
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will 1% of humanity's GWP be produced off-Earth?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5648/1-gwp-off-earth/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Since the launch of our [first satellite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_1) into orbit in 1957, human activity in outer space has been gradually increasing as the decades pass. As of writing, humans have visited the Moon, placed thousands of satellites around Earth and other celestial objects, and low Earth orbit has been inhabited continuously for just over [20 years](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/02/science/international-space-station-20-years) now. Elon Musk wants to colonize Mars and Jeff Bezos has talked about [moving industry to space](https://www.fastcompany.com/90347364/jeff-bezos-wants-to-save-earth-by-moving-industry-to-space), but as of yet, there is still essentially no economic activity that happens (almost) exclusively in outer space. How soon is this going to change? When will 1% of humanity's Gross World Product (GWP) be produced off-Earth? This question will resolve positively when there is a credible report of the total GWP of all economic activity away ...
-# Forecasts: 37
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5659/max-number-of-us-daily-covid-19-cases/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), the most cases reported in a single day so far has been 132,797, on November 6. What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025? The number of cases in a day will be according to [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html) . If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Worldometers](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us) . If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Johns Hopkins](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html) . If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [KFF](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/fact-sheet/coronavirus-tracker) . If none of these sites are functional at the time of resolution, the question resolves ambiguou...
-# Forecasts: 168
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5666/donald-trumps-net-worth-in-2024/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Donald Trump is #339 in the [Forbes 400](https://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/) an authoritative list of the most wealthy Americans with a claimed net worth of $2.5 Billion. What will Donald Trump's net worth be in 2024? This question will be resolved as the net worth attributed to Donald Trump by Forbes in Billions of US Dollars. If Donald Trump is no longer living it will resolved ambiguous. If Donald Trump is no longer on the Forbes 400 list, this question will resolve as <2.
-# Forecasts: 100
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings. One task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common public-key encryption (and signature) scheme, RSA, relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, DSA signatures and Diffie–Hellman key exchange, are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.) For a precise question we'll ask: When will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime? There's a previous question which makes a prediction for [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp...
-# Forecasts: 47
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will it be possible to buy Quantum Computing via the Cloud?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5671/quantum-computing-via-the-cloud/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Both Microsoft and Google are working on building Quantum Computers. Google achieved [Quantum Supremecy](https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/09/20/132923/google-researchers-have-reportedly-achieved-quantum-supremacy/) in 2019. Microsoft already has a website that previews [Azure Quantum](https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/services/quantum/) . Given that both companies have cloud offerings and the first Quantum Computers are going to be really expensive it makes sense to rent out compute on those computers to willing custumers of their cloud offerings. When will it be possible to buy Quantum Computing via the Cloud? This question will resolve as the day on which quantum computing services can be brought via the cloud (as normal compute in cloud computing can be brought in 2020). On the date of resolution, prices for quantum compute must be openly advertised and any user must be able to sign up without first having to be on a waiting list. If these conditions are not met by the end of 2...
-# Forecasts: 34
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 40%
-Description: In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/) . At 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability. He was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay) . Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75? This question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly retracts those claims. This includes if it is publicly revealed that he has gotten a treatment ruled out by the above quote, after the age...
-# Forecasts: 49
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5679/avg-daily-supply-motor-gasoline-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Ground motor transportation contributes heavily to global carbon emissions. A large part of this comes from the burning of fossil fuels in combustion vehicles, which are currently the majority of vehicles in the global fleet. However, as electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates increase with an expected market [CAGR of 41.7%](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/electric-vehicles-ev-market#:~:text=The%20global%20electric%20vehicle%20market,of%2041.5%25%202020%20to%202027.) between 2020 and 2025, the amount of gasoline purchased should decrease as consumers make the switch. [Gasoline purchases dipped](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) during the Great Recession, but have risen to over 9,000 barrels a day in 2019 (an increase of over 400 barrels). Data: Data will be collected and provided through the Energy Information Association, which can be accessed [here](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy...
-# Forecasts: 22
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5680/co2-emission-change-from-transport-2020-25/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Carbon emissions from motor transport, and in general, have decreased over the past year with COVID-19 affecting travel and general transportation rates across the globe. Between September 2019 and September 2020, carbon dioxide emissions from global ground transportation have [decreased 15.9%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) and contributed almost 2% of the total reduction in emissions over the past year. As a global consciousness grows over the need to limit climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, more countries are [adopting carbon neutrality goals](https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/14/countries-net-zero-climate-goal/) . The countries with greatest reductions in ground transportation emissions between 2019 and 2020 were America and Brazil, with a [25% and 16%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) decrease respectively. The US’s change in transportation habits during this year contributed to an almost 10% decrease in their total carbon emissions...
-# Forecasts: 18
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level. Total vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) . In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/) . Reports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/20...
-# Forecasts: 35
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5682/new-ev-bus-registration-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Public transport has long been thought to help [lower individual passenger car emissions](https://www.nationalexpresstransit.com/blog/why-is-public-transportation-good-for-the-environment/) as they reduce person-miles per gallon, and reduce the amount of space taken up on the road. While diesel powered buses are far from the cleanest vehicles, movements towards adopting electric public transportation could vastly improve public transport’s emissions. China has been the leader in electric busing and public transportation, with [72 thousand](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) new electric bus registrations in 2019 alone. By 2017, China’s bus fleet was comprised of approximately [17% electric buses](https://www.sustainable-bus.com/electric-bus/electric-bus-public-transport-main-fleets-projects-around-world/), a number far above the mere decimal point percentages in Europe and the United States. However, with new actions taken by the EU in attempts to become [carbon neutra...
-# Forecasts: 29
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 50%
-Description: It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/) . There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes. Chile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-s...
-# Forecasts: 24
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 35%
-Description: [Fortune.com](https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/trump-prosecuted-biden-2020-election/) : on Jan. 20 Trump will lose the immunity from federal criminal indictment that sitting presidents are granted under Justice Department policy. Prosecutors could ... re-examine the instances of possible obstruction of justice that former Special Counsel Robert Mueller uncovered in his probe into Russia’s 2016 election interference. Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025? This resolves positive if Trump is indicted for obstruction of justice by December 31, 2025. It resolves positive regardless of the nature of the obstruction charge, e.g. it resolves positive even if the alleged obstruction is not related to Russia's 2016 election interference.
-# Forecasts: 64
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will Graphcore become a publicly traded company?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5694/when-will-graphcore-ipo/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [Graphcore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphcore) is a semiconductor company that develops accelerators for AI and machine learning. In a [2019 interview by Wired](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/graphcore-ai-intelligence-processing-unit), Nigel Toon was asked whether Graphcore's goal ultimately is to IPO. His response: That’s the path we’re shooting for, absolutely. When will Graphcore become a publicly traded company? This question resolves positively as the date when Graphcore first becomes a publicly traded company. This may occur through any of the following channels: ---Graphcore holds an IPO or a completes a direct listing ---Graphcore is acquired by a publicly traded company ---Graphcore completes a [reverse IPO](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/reversetakeover.asp) by acquiring a publicly traded company --- This question resolves ambiguously if Graphcore is aqcuired by a private company. --- This question resolves ambiguously if Graphcore ceases operations before ...
-# Forecasts: 12
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), By popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve. To repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...] Will I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.” When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet? This question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in whic...
-# Forecasts: 45
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the net percentage of people who believe it's acceptable to buy fur by 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5697/moral-acceptablity-of-buying-fur-by-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Every year in May, Gallup asks people about the moral acceptability of various issues. You can see their most recent report [here](https://news.gallup.com/poll/1681/moral-issues.aspx) . One of the issues they ask about is "Buying and wearing clothing made of animal fur." As of May 2020, 54% of survey participants responded that it was morally acceptable to buy and wear clothing made of animal fur, and 43% replied that it was morally wrong. This means the net acceptability is 54 - 43 = 9%. What will the number be in 2030? What will be the net acceptability of buying and wearing fur by 2030? This question resolves as the percentage of survey participants who responded that it was morally acceptable to buy and wear clothing made of animal fur minus the percentage who responded that it is morally wrong, as of the most recent survey completed by Gallup by the end of 2030. In case the most recent survey is one that is more than 3 years old at the end of 2030, then this question resolves ambi...
-# Forecasts: 50
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 56.99999999999999%
-Description: Jeff McAulay and Stephen Zoepf summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/712/) . Jeff McAulay argued, Every major car company already has autonomous driving technology under development. Licenses for driverless cars have already been issued. Google autonomous vehicles have already demonstrated hundreds of thousands of miles of driving without any major accidents. Stephen Zoepf countered, I agree that autonomous vehicle technology has progressed at an astounding rate. However, I feel that major technological, policy, and consumer barriers mean that commercial availability of the technology in the next 8 years is unlikely. Will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024? If Jeff McAulay is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Stephen Zoepf is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.
-# Forecasts: 47
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 33%
-Description: Joseph F. Huttner and Stephen W Snow summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/726/) . Joseph F. Huttner argued, 1) The overall population of the United States will continue to increase, largely as a result of immigration. [...] 2) The American electorate is generally unwilling to force themselves to pay more for a given unit of energy than they have to, and geologically-derived crude oil is often the cheapest form of energy available. [...] 3) The solution to credible environmental issues stemming from the burning of fossil fuels is likely to be based on some scientific process which addresses those effects. [...] 4) Much of the geologically-derived crude oil for sale in the world comes from countries that have an under-developed economy. On a political level, it is in the interest of wealthier nations to purchase the exports of poorer nations, and that includes their oil - these transactions not only increase wealth for both nations, but they help foster ...
-# Forecasts: 31
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5717/will-trump-be-elected-potus-in-2024/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 4%
-Description: [Donald John Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump), born June 14, 1946, is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump lost the [2020 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) to Democratic nominee Joe Biden, but he has refused to concede defeat. He has made unsubstantiated accusations of electoral fraud, mounted a series of legal challenges to the results, and ordered White House officials not to cooperate in the presidential transition. As of mid-November 2020, [Trump is reportedly planning to run for the presidency again in 2024.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-trump-focuses-on-2024-aides-mull-agenda-for-final-days-11605206862) If Trump were to win the presidency again in 2024 and take office in 2025, he would be only the second man to serve non-consecutive terms as president of the United States, after [Grover Cleveland](https...
-# Forecasts: 250
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5721/1kt-nuke-detonated-on-earth-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 37%
-Description: [Nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: [on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki), respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 [Trinity test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)) . A tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests) . As of November 2020, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when [North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that yielded 70-280kt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea#Testing) . It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but quali...
-# Forecasts: 175
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally. While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people. The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows: Vaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people? This question resolves as the date when ...
-# Forecasts: 292
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5730/biden-net-approval-5-through-20-july-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 65%
-Description: By most accounts, Joe Biden [has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-pretty-convincing-win-for-biden-and-a-mediocre-performance-for-down-ballot-democrats/), winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if ["maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better."](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/why-biden-won-presidency/616980/) Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, ["Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity."](https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/524615-biden-win-would-leave-gop-poised-for-2024-comeback) According to [the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker,](https://proje...
-# Forecasts: 295
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/) . In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%. This question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month? Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts.
-# Forecasts: 133
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 50%
-Description: The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/) . This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response. This question asks: Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021? This question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new stra...
-# Forecasts: 355
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China) . [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/) . [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/) . China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about "per capita" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP. What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050? ---IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)) . ---If IMF stops publishing this, administrators choose a new similar dataset. Related questions: --- [When ...
-# Forecasts: 60
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him. Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? The question will resolve: 1--Rishi Sunak 2--Michael Gove 3--Jeremy Hunt 4--Priti Patel 5--None of the above The question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue. If the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous.
-# Forecasts: 153
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. In 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence) . However, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Sect...
-# Forecasts: 57
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5766/yang-to-run-for-nyc-mayor-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 98%
-Description: Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and philanthropist from New York City who ran a surprisingly effective long-shot Democratic primary campaign in the 2020 Presidential election. He was noted for his quirky, upbeat campaigning style and raucous online fanbase. New York mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to run for re-election in November 2021 due to term limits. With 70% of New York voters registered as Democrats to only 10% Republicans, the election to replace him is in effect the Democratic Party mayoral primary on June 22, 2021. There are already [several strong declared and potential candidates](https://www.cityandstateny.com/articles/politics/campaigns-elections/major-2021-mayoral-contenders.html), including [Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/11/eric-adams-runs-for-new-york-city-mayor.html) . Yang has confirmed that [he is actively considering](http://www.wcny.org/andrew-yang-for-nyc-mayor-tbd/) a bid. Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New Yor...
-# Forecasts: 360
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally. While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people. The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows: Vaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT? This question resolves as the date...
-# Forecasts: 122
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will any executives be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5768/prison-for-corporate-crooks/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 70%
-Description: In 2006 [Jeffrey Skilling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Skilling) was imprisoned for 12 years for his part in the [Enron scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal) . Since then, there have been very few high profile convictions of corporate bad-actors. (Much ink was spilled over the lack of convictions of bankers during for the [2007-2008 financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008)) There have been prison terms for some more junior employees. [Tom Hayes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Hayes_(trader)) was imprisoned for his part of the [LIBOR fixing scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor_scandal) although generally executives have escaped sanctions: There are currently outstanding warrants for Wirecard executives, and a former [VW CEO is faces charges of fraud in court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal#Charges_against_Volkswagen_engineering/management) . (His imprisonment would result in t...
-# Forecasts: 29
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will GTA VI be released in the US?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5772/when-will-gta-vi-be-released-in-the-us/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [Grand Theft Auto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto) (GTA) is a series of action-adventure games created by David Jones and Mike Dailly. The series has been critically acclaimed and commercially successful, having shipped more than 280 million units with an [estimated gross revenue of over $9 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_video_game_franchises#At_least_$5_billion), making it the fourth-highest selling video game franchise of all time, behind Nintendo's Mario and Pokémon franchises, and Tetris. The latest major instalment in the series, [Grand Theft Auto V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_V), was released in 2013. It was the first main entry in the Grand Theft Auto series since 2008's [Grand Theft Auto IV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_IV) . When will GTA VI be released? This question resolves as the date on which the next major instalment in the GTA series (e.g. not an expansion pack or handheld game), the ...
-# Forecasts: 51
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity) . [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. Early results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%. [Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020...
-# Forecasts: 530
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5780/real-us-house-prices-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008#Growth_of_the_housing_bubble) . What will US house prices be at the end of 2021? What will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2021? Specifically what will be the value of the December 2021 release of [S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA) be divided by the value of [CPI less shelter](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SA0L2) both divided by their values on Jan-2000. For example: ---for Jan-2000 this value is 1.0 ---for Sep-2020 this value is: If these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously.
-# Forecasts: 28
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords) Unlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes. [There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://e...
-# Forecasts: 21
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ======= The CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/) . Understanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds. Cons...
-# Forecasts: 105
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in February 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ======= [Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy. Greatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. The level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of ...
-# Forecasts: 109
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ======= [Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) . Patterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future. Total retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, fo...
-# Forecasts: 69
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ======= The Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted. The industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market. Anothe...
-# Forecasts: 72
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5800/astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-effectiveness/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: According to [STAT](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/23/astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-is-70-effective-on-average-early-data-show/), early results from an AstraZeneca trial showed 70% efficacy. But that average hid a discrepancy: Two full doses of the vaccine appeared to be only 62% effective at preventing disease, while a half dose, followed by a full dose, was about 90% effective. That latter analysis was conducted on a small subset of the study participants, only 2,741. This half dose-full dose regimen was [administered by accident](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-astrazeneca-dosing/dosing-error-turns-into-lucky-punch-for-astrazeneca-and-oxford-idUSKBN28327Q), in a non-random fashion, therefore violating the randomization assumption of an RCT. Because of this failure in study design, the [CEO of AstraZeneca told Bloomberg News](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-26/astra-likely-to-run-fresh-global-covid-vaccine-trial-ceo-says) that the company wants ...
-# Forecasts: 139
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for February 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ======= The [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad. Just like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) . When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices. [Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufactur...
-# Forecasts: 75
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How large will Monaco be in 2035?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5802/how-large-will-monaco-be-in-2035/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [The Principality of Monaco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monaco) is a sovereign city-state, and microstate on the French Riviera in Western Europe. It is bordered by France to the north, east and west, and by the Mediterranean Sea to the south. The principality is home to 38,682 residents, of which 9,486 are Monegasque nationals, and is widely recognised for being one of the most expensive and wealthiest places in the world. [Over 30% of the resident population are millionaires, and high-end real estate prices reached €100,000 ($142,000) per square metre in 2018.](https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20180206-the-country-running-out-of-space-for-its-millionaires) With an area of 210 hectares (0.81 sq mi), it is one of the smallest sovereign states in Europe and the second-smallest in the world, after the Vatican City State. Its 19,009 inhabitants per square kilometre (49,230/sq mi) make it the most densely-populated sovereign state in the world. To continue economic development and ...
-# Forecasts: 48
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the first clone of a prominent historical figure be born?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5804/first-clone-of-a-prominent-historical-figure/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: From [the NIH](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Cloning-Fact-Sheet), Despite several highly publicized claims, human cloning still appears to be fiction. There currently is no solid scientific evidence that anyone has cloned human embryos. [...] From a technical perspective, cloning humans and other primates is more difficult than in other mammals. One reason is that two proteins essential to cell division, known as spindle proteins, are located very close to the chromosomes in primate eggs. Consequently, removal of the egg's nucleus to make room for the donor nucleus also removes the spindle proteins, interfering with cell division. In other mammals, such as cats, rabbits and mice, the two spindle proteins are spread throughout the egg. So, removal of the egg's nucleus does not result in loss of spindle proteins. In addition, some dyes and the ultraviolet light used to remove the egg's nucleus can damage the primate cell and prevent it from growing. A prominent histor...
-# Forecasts: 17
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5806/sars-cov-2-vaccine-widely-available-in-the-us/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: While vaccine hesitancy [remains high at 42% in the US](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx), public health officials are aiming to have the vaccine widely available as soon as possible. Various officials have estimated when a vaccine will be widely available. [Director of NIAID Anthony Fauci](https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/11/10/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-availability-timeline-tapper-intv-lead-vpx.cnn) estimated "as early as April": When asked when normal people with no prioritization factors would have access to a vaccine, Fauci responded "We are talking by April, by the end of April, I think". [HHS Secretary Alex Azar](https://www.today.com/video/hhs-secretary-alex-azar-vaccine-could-be-widely-distributed-by-march-or-april-95635525920) estimated by "March or early April": It’s estimated the government will have enough coronavirus vaccine... "for all Americans by March or early April to have general vaccination programs.” [Former FDA chief ...
-# Forecasts: 330
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 28.999999999999996%
-Description: From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons), The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination. It was adopted on 7 July 2017, opened for signature on 20 September 2017, and will enter into force on 22 January 2021. For those nations that are party to it, the treaty prohibits the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to the prohibited activities. For nuclear armed states joining the treaty, it provides for a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of its nuclear weapons programme. A mandate adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 23 December 2016 scheduled two sessions for negoti...
-# Forecasts: 36
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 50%
-Description: In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the Whitehouse, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too. If Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2022, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen? 435* seats will be contested in 2022 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2023 and certifies its membership. Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022? Resolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolves false if Democrats^ ...
-# Forecasts: 71
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5819/aussie-pollie-mathias-cormann-to-lead-oecd/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 30%
-Description: The term of the current Secretary-General of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) will come to an end on 30 June 2021. Nominations are open for candidates to become the next Secretary-General, with nominations having closed on the 1st of November. The decision is expected by 1 March 2021 at the latest. Mathias Cormann announced he was stepping down as Finance Minister of Australia in order to run for the position of Secretary-General. [Cormann faces nine competitors.](https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/oecd-announces-candidates-for-next-secretary-general.htm) In his favour is [the US and EU being apparently reluctant to support the other's candidate](https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/morrison-to-nominate-cormann-for-oecd-20201008-p5633s) but working against him is [the Australian Government's poor record on climate change](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/24/mathias-cormann-wants-to-be-a-chameleon-on-climate-change-when-weve-got-a-bin-fire...
-# Forecasts: 41
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5823/date-first-class-royal-mail-stamps-costs-1/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [The cost of a first-class stamp will rise by 9p to 85p on 1 January 2021.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55150052) Data of the price of first-class stamps are available [here](https://tamebay.com/2019/03/historic-royal-mail-stamp-prices-1971-2019.html) . When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1? Resolves on the first day it is not possible to buy a first-class stamp from Royal Mail for less than £1 per stamp. The question will close retroactively just before the announcement of such a price increase. Resolves ambiguously if Royal Mail stops existing and has no obvious successor.
-# Forecasts: 18
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5826/bitcoin-below-10k/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 25%
-Description: The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) . Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021? Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021? This question resolves "Yes" if the bitcoin price on [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves "No" otherwise. If this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution. The time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC. If bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves "No". If [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both o...
-# Forecasts: 449
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5827/dc-charging-stations-in-boulder-co-by-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Background ========== As new electric vehicle models enter the market with increasing ranges and falling prices, consumer interest is rising. We are tracking this consumer interest and general electric vehicle adoption through the number of charging stations available in the top ten states after California. We’ve selected cities in these states outside of the core areas of EV infrastructure and development, usually the largest metropolitan places, to observe general trends throughout the rest of the state. Boulder County, CO hosts the second largest number of public charging locations ([153](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/colorado)) in the state of Colorado. [90](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/colorado/boulder-county/boulder) of those chargers reside in Boulder, the largest city in Boulder County. However, according to [ChargePoint’s map](https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point) of charging locations across the United States, no...
-# Forecasts: 56
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5828/dc-charging-stations-in-orlando-fl-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Background ========== As new electric vehicle models enter the market with increasing ranges and falling prices, consumer interest is rising. We are tracking this consumer interest and general electric vehicle adoption through the number of charging stations available in the top ten states after California. We’ve selected cities in these states outside of the core areas of EV infrastructure and development, usually the largest metropolitan places, to observe general trends throughout the rest of the state. Orange County, FL hosts the second largest number of public charging locations ([200](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/florida)) in the state of Florida, after Miami. Over 75% ([165](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/florida/orange-county)) of those chargers reside in Orlando, the largest city in Orange County. However, according to [ChargePoint’s map](https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point) of charging locations across the United...
-# Forecasts: 32
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will China land the next person on the Moon?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 23%
-Description: Both [China](https://apnews.com/article/technology-beijing-space-exploration-china-mars-265e6b1227e9ce0ea9c8bb1f6c1dbda3) and the [US](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/sending-american-astronauts-to-moon-in-2024-nasa-accepts-challenge/) have announced plans to land a person on the Moon. Both are tentatively aiming to land someone on the Moon in the year 2024. Will China land the next person on the Moon? This question will resolve positively if the next person to successfully land on the Moon before the resolve date is a Chinese citizen and will resolve negatively otherwise. This question will resolve immediately prior to the time of the Moon landing itself or, if that’s not available, immediately prior to the first credible media report. For a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk ...
-# Forecasts: 58
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world. When will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 10%? This question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that: Moreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior. Each year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD. [World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.
-# Forecasts: 67
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5839/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Since 2015 (at least) the FDA has listed on their website an easily interpretable list of drugs they approve each year. [Here is their list for 2019](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/new-drugs-fda-cders-new-molecular-entities-and-new-therapeutic-biological-products/novel-drug-approvals-2019) (the last complete list, as of writing this question). How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021? This question resolves as the number of drugs approved by the FDA in 2021, as reported by the FDA or credible media.
-# Forecasts: 45
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2035?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5840/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2035/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Since 2015 (at least) the FDA has listed on their website an easily interpretable list of drugs they approve each year. [Here is their list for 2019](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/new-drugs-fda-cders-new-molecular-entities-and-new-therapeutic-biological-products/novel-drug-approvals-2019) (the last complete list, as of writing this question). This question mirrors [a question I wrote for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5839/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2021/) . I created this question because it has a longer timeline, and therefore can potentially be informed by [the recent Deepmind protein folding breakthrough](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphafold-a-solution-to-a-50-year-old-grand-challenge-in-biology) . It's also a good test for [Eroom's law](https://www.theifod.com/erooms-law-explaining-the-decline-in-drug-discovery/), the observation that drugs have gotten exponentially more difficult to develop over time. How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2035? This question r...
-# Forecasts: 19
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5848/election-fraud-myth-persists/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 82%
-Description: Currently, [according to polling by Reuters/Ipsos](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/half-of-republicans-say-biden-won-because-of-a-rigged-election-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN27Y1AJ), "about half of all Republicans believe President Donald Trump 'rightfully won' the US election but that it was stolen from him by widespread voter fraud that favored Democratic President-elect Joe Biden". Despite [media (including Fox News) calling the election for Biden](https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2020/11/07/fox-news-biden-president/), [Trump's court cases failing](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/10/933112418/the-trump-campaign-has-had-almost-no-legal-success-this-month-heres-what-they-ve), [recounts continuing to show Biden winning](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/29/politics/biden-dane-county-wisconsin-recount/index.html), [states officially certifying results](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/arizona-wisconsin-certify-election/2020/11/30/ec161756-3338-11eb-b59c-adb7153d10c2_...
-# Forecasts: 146
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and infant mortality have made massive gains in the past 100 years, and infectious diseases (less one glaring example) have been decimated. Some may not find it so far-fetched to try to take on death and aging itself. However, this presents a unique and extremely difficult problem to the modern medical field. Human bodies are made of trillions of cells, each either being replaced via mitosis that, over time, accumulates errors and mutations, or slowly decaying and receiving damage from the environment. Those who would try to bring the end of aging face the task of keeping trillions of cells and 600 AU of DNA per person undamaged and complete... across a population of billions. Attempting immortality, even without somehow preventing death via accident or violence, is an even...
-# Forecasts: 36
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5858/when-will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [Technosignatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to [the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Search_for_extraterrestrial_intelligence) Technosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft. When will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected for the first time? By 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism. This question resolves as the date on which a competent and credible authority on ast...
-# Forecasts: 80
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5860/2020-mens-100m-final/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The [100m final](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres_at_the_Olympics) is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics. [The Men's 100m time has been progressing over time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) and a number of reasons have been suggested (better training, better equipment (eg track surface, shoes), wider athlete pool). The retirement of Usain Bolt has left sprinting short of it's fastest star, but there are no shortage of fast athletes likely to contest the final. It remains to be seen what the impact of COVID will be on sprinting, but judging from distance running it appears likely that the times will be extremely fast. What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be? The official winning time of the Men's 100m final for the 2020 Olympics. If the 2020 Olympics do not take place (ie [if this question resolves negative](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/)) the...
-# Forecasts: 51
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5861/2020-olympic-womens-100m-final/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The [100m final](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres_at_the_Olympics) is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics. [The Women's 100m time had been progressing over time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) but has been static since the 1980s. [This is consistent with most women's athletics records](https://sportsscientists.com/2016/08/world-records-fossils/) and is likely related to the systemtic doping from that era. It remains to be seen what the impact of COVID will be on sprinting, but judging from distance running it appears likely that the times will be extremely fast. What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be? The official winning time of the Women's 100m final for the 2020 Olympics. If the 2020 Olympics do not take place (ie [if this question resolves negative](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/)) then this question will resolve ambiguous Related quest...
-# Forecasts: 48
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5865/longbets-us-productivity-growth-2-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 40%
-Description: Robert D Atkinson and Alberto Forchielli summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/751/) . Robert D Atkinson argued, U.S. productivity growth is at its lowest rate, perhaps since the founding of the Republic. Some experts, like Robert Gordon, argue that this will be the new new norm, arguing that all the "low hanging fruit has been picked." Rather, a new wave of innovations, grounded in areas such as new materials, robotics and AI, are likely to finally get to the "s-curve" take-off point within the next 5 to 10 years, thereby powering organizations to boost labor productivity (eg., produce more per hour of labor) Alberto Forchielli countered, We have not seen 3% productivity growth in USA for many years. Predicting such growth is highly speculative at this point since there are way too many uncertainties. Moreover assuming such growth entails large investment amounts not just in R&D but also downstream. I fear US economy will see itself constrained by ...
-# Forecasts: 17
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Longbets series: will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5866/longbets-low-unemployment-but-low-lfpr-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 51%
-Description: Robert D Atkinson and Jason W Galbraith summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/687/) . Robert D Atkinson argued, Increasingly a large number of pundits and scholars, including Eric Brynjolfsson, Martin Ford, Andrew McAfee, and Vivek Wadhwa, have argued that technology is rapidly advancing and will soon lead large scale displacement of workers with technology. These views have rapidly become the prevailing wisdom regarding emerging technology with the result being that voters and policy makers are now more likely to resist technological change and automation, rather than embrace it. But the "robots are killing our jobs" proponents miss the fact that automation lowers prices (or raises wages) which in turn spurs increased demand for goods and services, and hence labor. As such there is no reason to believe that either unemployment or the share of adults in the workforce will decline in any significantly way going forward. Alberto Forchielli countered, The ...
-# Forecasts: 27
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will US house prices be at the end of 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5867/real-us-house-prices-in-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008#Growth_of_the_housing_bubble) What will US house prices be at the end of 2030? What will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2030? Specifically what will be the value of the December 2030 release of [S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA) be divided by the value of [CPI less shelter](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SA0L2) both divided by their values on Jan-2000. For example: ---for Jan-2000 this value is 1.0 ---for Sep-2020 this value is: If these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously.
-# Forecasts: 44
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on June 14, 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5871/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/) . This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539) . [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wi...
-# Forecasts: 174
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2021 list?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5872/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-21/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits. The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wik...
-# Forecasts: 265
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will online poker die by 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 17%
-Description: In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/) Pluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of mi...
-# Forecasts: 83
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5876/-of-us-gdp-spent-on-rd-in-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: From [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm), Gross domestic spending on R&D is defined as the total expenditure (current and capital) on R&D carried out by all resident companies, research institutes, university and government laboratories, etc., in a country. It includes R&D funded from abroad, but excludes domestic funds for R&D performed outside the domestic economy. This indicator is measured in USD constant prices using 2010 base year and Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) and as percentage of GDP In the most recent year recorded, in 2018 OECD nations spent 2.379% of their GDP on R&D. The United States in particular spent 2.862% of its GDP on R&D. What will that number be in 2030? What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030? This question resolves on the percentage of United States GDP spent on R&D in 2030, as determined by [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm), or if the OE...
-# Forecasts: 27
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5882/2024-us-election-considered-fraudulent/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 26%
-Description: From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election), Before, during, and after Election Day, Trump and numerous Republicans attempted to subvert the [2020 election] and overturn the results, falsely alleging that there had been widespread voter fraud, and trying to influence the vote counting process in swing states. Officials in each of the 50 states stated that there was no evidence of systematic fraud or irregularities in their state. Federal agencies overseeing election security said it was "the most secure in American history." Attorney General Bill Barr concluded there was "no evidence of widespread fraud" in the election. On multiple occasions, Trump falsely declared himself the winner. The Trump campaign and its allies continued to engage in numerous attempts to overturn the results of the election by filing dozens of legal challenges in several states, most of which were dropped or dismissed by various courts, spreading conspiracy theories ...
-# Forecasts: 139
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5883/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 53%
-Description: Gladys Berejiklian has been Premier of New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, since January 2017. Her term has encompassed both the devastating bush fires of January 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis. 2020 has seen Berejiklian's response to the COVID-19 pandemic garner praise, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying that NSW's management was the ["gold standard"](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/why-pm-says-nsw-is-gold-standard-in-covid-19-control/12636890) . Revelations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had been in a long-term relationship with Daryl Maguire, a former member of state parliament and the subject of the commission's inquiry, have [caused controversy](https://www.afr.com/politics/gladys-berejiklian-and-the-loss-of-innocence-20201016-p565mx) . The ICAC revelations were followed by [other missteps](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/gladys-berejiklians-slipups-are-showing/news-story/179973debcff311aa61249c8f708c1e8) by ...
-# Forecasts: 35
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the Open Courts Act become law?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 57.99999999999999%
-Description: The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records. Will the Open Courts Act become law? This question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively.
-# Forecasts: 48
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5885/will-elon-musk-walk-on-the-moon-by-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 1%
-Description: [Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is an engineer and the founder, CEO, CTO and chief designer of SpaceX, among other ventures. [Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) is an American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. It was founded in 2002 with the goal of reducing space transportation costs to enable the colonization of Mars. [The SpaceX Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) system is a fully-reusable, two-stage-to-orbit, super heavy-lift launch vehicle under development by SpaceX since 2012, as a privately-funded private spaceflight project. SpaceX could potentially launch commercial payloads using Starship no earlier than 2021. In April 2020, [NASA selected a modified crew-rated Starship system](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions/) as one of three potential lun...
-# Forecasts: 51
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5886/will-the-first-female-potus-be-republican/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 27%
-Description: [The president of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States) (POTUS) is the head of state and head of government of the United States of America. The president directs the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States Armed Forces. As of 2020, [44 individuals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) have held the presidency since the office was established in 1788; all have been male. Throughout most of its history, American politics has been dominated by political parties, and since 1853, all US presidents have been affiliated with either the [Democratic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States)) or [Republican](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_(United_States)) parties. The Democratic Party has had one female nominee for president; [Hillary Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton) in [the 2016 presidential election.](...
-# Forecasts: 50
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5888/cv-e-prints-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . [Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visu...
-# Forecasts: 134
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5889/nlp-e-prints-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . Natural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process...
-# Forecasts: 137
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2021 TOP500 list?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5891/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/) . According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2005 at 68.31%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020. What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2021 TOP500 list? The question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in...
-# Forecasts: 160
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5892/ai-ethics-and-algo-bias-publications-2022/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The ethics of artificial intelligence is the branch of the ethics of technology specific to machine learning and AI systems. How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022? This question resolves as the total number of publications on arXiv on 2022-12-31 at 11:59 PM, as per the e-print's "original submission date". Details of the search query For the purpose of this question, AI ethics and algorithmic bias e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain that contain any of the following key words in "all fields": "AI ethics", "AI fairness", "racial bias", "gender bias", "algorithmic bias" The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+ethics%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+fairness%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operat...
-# Forecasts: 34
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5894/ai-safety--other-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . AI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behav...
-# Forecasts: 189
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5896/sota-on-pascal-context-at-2021-06-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf) . The PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) . The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang...
-# Forecasts: 155
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5897/sota-on-cityscapes-on-2021-06-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf) . [Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al.,...
-# Forecasts: 160
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5898/sota-on-imagenet-on-2021-06-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. ImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the se...
-# Forecasts: 194
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5899/ai-safety--other-2021-through-2026/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . AI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behav...
-# Forecasts: 144
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5900/few-shot-learning-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . Few-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a f...
-# Forecasts: 153
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5901/reinforcement-learning-2020-12-14-2021-06-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . Reinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones...
-# Forecasts: 129
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5902/sota-1-shot-on-on-miniimagenet-2021-06-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. The MiniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/p...
-# Forecasts: 280
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in Average Precision (AP)?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5903/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2021-06-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is YOLOv4- large [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2011.08036v1.pdf), which achieves an average precision (AP) of 55.8. An excell...
-# Forecasts: 168
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5904/image-classification-index-2021-06-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. Index The index is constructed as follows: ---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index ---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 The following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index: Image classific...
-# Forecasts: 166
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5906/number-confirmed-global-covid-cases-by-2022/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 68,165,877 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide. This global case number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country. What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021? The [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed case data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.
-# Forecasts: 165
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5907/number-confirmed-global-covid-deaths-by-2022/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 1,557,385 confirmed COVID-19 deaths worldwide. This global death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country. What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021? The [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.
-# Forecasts: 130
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory. What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021? The [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.
-# Forecasts: 399
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) . This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html) . [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics. What will be the total n...
-# Forecasts: 157
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5910/covid-vaccines-approved-by-us-fda-by-june/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: As of 09 December, no COVID-19 vaccines have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA is the national regulatory authority responsible for approving vaccines in the U.S. So far, both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have filed requests for [emergency use authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) of their respective vaccine candidates after meeting the primary end points requested by the FDA for their phase III trials. Pfizer/BioNTech [filed on 20 November]([https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/pre…](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-emergency-use-authorization)) and Moderna [filed on 30 November](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-primary-efficacy-analysis-phase-3-cove-study) . The FDA vaccine advisory committee is meeting on [10 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-comm...
-# Forecasts: 164
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5911/april-2021-production-of-semiconducters/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976) . The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for May 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' I...
-# Forecasts: 146
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5912/when-will-us-allow-travel-from-europe/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: On 11 March, President Trump issued a [presidential proclamation](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-certain-additional-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/) that suspended “...entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.” This travel ban was issued in response to the high number of COVID-19 cases in the Schengen Area relative to the U.S. at the time. The Schengen Area is comprised of [26 European countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) . This ongoing suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents. When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the ...
-# Forecasts: 174
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 31%
-Description: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737) . Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed. Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021? This will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on an...
-# Forecasts: 163
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5915/will-us-aca-have-public-option-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 10%
-Description: President-elect Joe Biden has stated he will seek to add a “public option” component to the Affordable Care Act (ACA). This would create a [Medicare-like public insurance plan that any American can buy into and that would compete with private insurance plans](https://joebiden.com/healthcare/) . It [seems likely](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/09/932071991/what-bidens-election-means-for-u-s-health-care-and-public-health) that Republican senators will oppose the introduction of a public option. Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021? This will resolve on the basis of whether a “public option” is created that allows any American to buy into a Medicare-like government insurance plan. Such an expansion of the ACA would have to be passed by Congress and signed into law by the President. A public option that is limited to certain groups of people — for instance, only those over 50 years of age — would count for resol...
-# Forecasts: 119
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5916/will-2021-be-the-hottest-year-on-record/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 33%
-Description: According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth's average global surface temperature in 2019 was the [“...second warmest since modern record-keeping began in 1880”](https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2945/nasa-noaa-analyses-reveal-2019-second-warmest-year-on-record/) and this continues the planet's long-term warming trend, with the last five years being the warmest of the past 140 years. The hottest year on record is 2016. Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA? This will resolve on the basis of an announcement by NASA on whether 2021 is the hottest year on record — more specifically, whether Earth’s average global surface temperature in 2021 will be the hottest in the 1880-2021 time frame. If the NASA (GISS) results are tied with another year, the NOAA numbers will be used to break the tie. If those are tied too, we'll go on to EU's Copernicus. If a tie remains, this resolves ambiguous.
-# Forecasts: 198
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5917/date-us-rejoins-paris-climate-agreement/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: On 4 November 2020, the U.S. [formally withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54797743) . This comes after President Trump announced such a move in June 2017, though it did not take effect until 4 November 2020. President-elect Joe Biden has [indicated](https://joebiden.com/climate-plan/) he will recommit the U.S. to the Paris Climate Agreement. Biden [would not need Senate support](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/20/biden-to-rejoin-paris-climate-accord-heres-what-happens-next-.html) to rejoin since the accord is an executive agreement. Biden’s administration will just have to send a letter to the United Nations stating the intention to rejoin, and the official return would take effect in 30 days. When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement? This will resolve on the basis of an announcement by the future Biden administration in which it states that it is formally intending to rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement. This would mean tha...
-# Forecasts: 293
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5918/world-to-agree-to-new-climate-targets-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 67%
-Description: The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, otherwise known as COP26, is the [26th United Nations Climate Change conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference) . It is scheduled to be held in Glasgow, United Kingdom in November 2021. This conference is the first time that member states are expected to commit to new targets since COP21 in 2015. It is expected that new targets will be selected by most countries and that these actions will be informed by the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. All parties to the agreement must submit their new 2030 targets before this next major United Nations climate meeting. Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference? This question will resolve if at least 95% of countries that are party to the Paris Agreement at the time of the conference announce new targets prior to the COP26 conference.
-# Forecasts: 98
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5920/us-to-join-rcep-trade-pact-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 19%
-Description: The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between fifteen Asian countries, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five of its regional partners. RCEP will connect about [30% of the world’s people and output](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/16/rcep-a-new-trade-agreement-that-will-shape-global-economics-and-politics/), which likely makes it the largest free trade agreement in the world. The RCEP is generally seen as a successor to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which [President Trump withdrew from in 2017](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/unpacked/2017/03/24/trump-withdrawing-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership/) . President-elect Joe Biden has been [noncommittal on whether he would join the RCEP](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/business/china-trade-rcep.html) . Biden would need the approval of the Senate to join the trade pact. Will the ...
-# Forecasts: 102
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5921/net-migration-to-uk-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Net migration to the United Kingdom was estimated to be [270,000 in 2019, down from a peak of 331,000 in the year ending March 2015](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/) . Net migration prior to 2020 has been falling largely owing to Brexit and, in 2020, is expected to have fallen significantly further due to both Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic. What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021? This will resolve on the basis of [long-term international migration statistics for the UK for the year ending December 2021](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2020#eu-and-non-eu-migration-over-time) that is published by the UK Office for National Statistics.
-# Forecasts: 154
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 55.00000000000001%
-Description: Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0) . The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland. Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021? This will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.
-# Forecasts: 140
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent) .) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/) . With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. As we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on th...
-# Forecasts: 130
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2021-06-14 in perplexity?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5924/sota-perplexity-on-wikitext-103-2021-06-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models. The [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is kNN-L...
-# Forecasts: 157
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5925/eu-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Annual GDP growth rate in Europe has gradually decreased by approximately 1% between 2017 and 2019, ending with an average growth rate in 2019 of [1.523%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU) . Growth dropped into the negative ranges in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving GDP growth to flounder [3.3% in Q1, and fall again 14.8% in Q2](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Quarterly_national_accounts_-_GDP_and_employment#Quarterly_GDP_growth) . Q3, following similar global trends, saw a bounce back with GDP growth of [12.7%](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10663774/2-30102020-BP-EN.pdf/94d48ceb-de52-fcf0-aa3d-313361b761c5) . As new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery in 2021 looks promising. Commissioner Gentiloni of the European Commission remarked in the Autumn 2020 Press Conference for Economic Forecasts that while GDP is expected to contract over [7% in 2020...
-# Forecasts: 82
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5926/bear-market-in-sp-500-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 30%
-Description: The S&P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue. Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)? This will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time.
-# Forecasts: 226
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp) . They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500. What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500? This will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.
-# Forecasts: 185
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Oil, arguably one of most important commodities in the world, is vital for understanding the global economy. The price for any commodity is driven through the intersection between consumer demand and production supply, so we can effectively use the price of oil to understand complications in consumer/producer dynamics. We use oil for everything; for transportation, industry, agricultural, and residential needs. The transportation industry is the greatest consumer of oil by far, at [68%](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php) use in all transportation needs for the US and [56% globally](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/oil-consumption) . However, with the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic in 2020, global transportation demand has fallen as fewer people travel both domestically and abroad. An oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia during 2020 also caused production stressors. These supply and dem...
-# Forecasts: 196
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5929/us-pev-sales-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Information on sales at a global level is often not reported for electric vehicles specifically, making total tallies difficult to procure and often subject to error and estimation. However, according to [InsideEV’s Sales Scorecard](https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-scorecard/) there was a total of 329,528 electric vehicles sold in the US in 2019, an [8.88% drop from 2018](https://evadoption.com/2019-us-ev-sales-decreased-an-estimated-7-to-9-6-reasons-why/) . As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, electric vehicle sales are declining, partly due to the decrease in gas prices. In the first half of 2020, electric vehicle sales [fell 14%](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/20/global-plugin-vehicle-volumes-fell-14-in-1st-half-of-2020-better-than-auto-markets-28-drop/), only half of what the regular automobile market experienced with a fall of 28% in global sales. Our [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5527/total-us-ev-sales-in-2020/) on total US PEV sales...
-# Forecasts: 110
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5931/number-of-commercial-flights-on-30-june-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The daily number of flights in operation globally [dropped precipitously](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airlines-iata/airlines-set-to-lose-157-billion-amid-worsening-slump-iata-idUSKBN2841KA) this past March/April as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and remains well below 2018 and 2019 figures. The 7-day moving average number of commercial flights on 30 June 2020 was 49,717 compared to 123,304 on 30 June 2019. What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021? Flightrader24’s [“2020 7-day moving average”](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) for the number of commercial flights on 30 June 2021 will be considered for resolution. The 7-day moving average is used so as to smooth out any day-of-the-week effects.
-# Forecasts: 120
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally. While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people. The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows: Vaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT? This question resolves as the date...
-# Forecasts: 97
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5935/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2021-06-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001) . To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf) . The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikip...
-# Forecasts: 222
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5936/closing-price-igm-on-2021-06-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . [iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI. Its holdings include Google, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, Nvidia, amongst others. What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14, in nominal USD? This question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2021-06-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM) . Prices are to be given in nominal USD. In the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be sc...
-# Forecasts: 182
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5937/sota-on-superglue-on-2021-06-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . [SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) [(Wang et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.00537) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasises diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is T5: Text-To-Text Transfer Transformer [(Raffel et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.10683), which achieves an average score 89.3, just below the human baseline of 89.8 The SuperGLUE leaderboard may be accessed [here](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/leaderboa...
-# Forecasts: 236
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5938/multi-modal-ml-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . Multimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguis...
-# Forecasts: 165
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5939/it-as--of-gdp-in-q1-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001) . To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf) . The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikip...
-# Forecasts: 195
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5940/squad20-sota-perfomance-2021-06-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250) . In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squa...
-# Forecasts: 183
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5941/sota-text-to-sql-on-wikisql-2021-06-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . [Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. [WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy? This...
-# Forecasts: 178
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019. What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021? The “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD.
-# Forecasts: 96
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Assessing [excess mortality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed. Research has shown that in the case of COVID-19, [many cases are undetected](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275155/), which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality. As of December 12th, 2020, [the CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th. How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)? This question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the period of March 8th 2020 to December 31st, 2021 on or before Feb...
-# Forecasts: 68
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5946/sota-on-imagenet-on-2024-06-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. ImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the se...
-# Forecasts: 170
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2026-12-14 in perplexity?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5947/sota-perplexity-on-wikitext-103-2026-12-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models. The [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is kNN-L...
-# Forecasts: 168
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5948/image-classification-index-2026-12-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. Index The index is constructed as follows: ---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index ---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 The following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index: Image classific...
-# Forecasts: 154
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2026 list?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5949/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-nov-2026/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits. The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wik...
-# Forecasts: 149
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5950/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/) . According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020. What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list? The question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in...
-# Forecasts: 143
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5951/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/) . This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539) . [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wi...
-# Forecasts: 156
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2026-12-14 in 2020 USD?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5955/alphabet-incs-market-cap-on-2026-12-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2020 USD). Google has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind) . Many of their products and services (such as their search engine and [their self-driving car subsidiary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waymo)) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning. What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2026-12-14 in trillions of 2020 USD? This question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation in trillions of USD at market close on 2026-12-14, accor...
-# Forecasts: 201
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5958/it-as--of-gdp-in-q4-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001) . To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf) . The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikip...
-# Forecasts: 161
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2026, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5960/dec-2026-production-of-semiconductors/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976) . The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for December 2026, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserv...
-# Forecasts: 120
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01 period?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5961/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-01-2031-01-01/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . Reinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones...
-# Forecasts: 179
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-01-01 to 2027-01-01 period?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5962/few-shot-learning-2020-12-14-to-2027-01-01/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . Few-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a f...
-# Forecasts: 238
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5965/object-detection-index-2021-06-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14? Index The index is constructed as follows: ---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index ---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 The following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index: Object detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full bo...
-# Forecasts: 172
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5974/yang-last-round-vote-share-2021-ny-mayor/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and philanthropist from New York City who ran a surprisingly effective long-shot Democratic primary campaign in the 2020 Presidential election. He was noted for his quirky, upbeat campaigning style and raucous online fanbase. New York mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to run for re-election in November 2021 due to term limits. With 70% of New York voters registered as Democrats to only 10% Republicans, the election to replace him is in effect the Democratic Party mayoral primary on June 22, 2021. There are already several strong declared and potential candidates, including city Comptroller Scott Stringer and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams. As of mid-December, 2020, Yang is widely regarded as a candidate although he has yet made no public declaration. In 2021, for the first time, New York's municipal elections will use a ranked-choice or "instant runoff" system. Voters rank up to five candidates in preference order, and if no candidate has an outri...
-# Forecasts: 59
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5979/ca-gov-newsom-petitioned-for-recall-election/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 82%
-Description: An effort to recall California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) was launched on June 10, 2020. Supporters of the recall have until March 17, 2021, to collect the 1,495,709 signatures needed to require a recall election. In total, five recall petitions against Newsom have failed to qualify for the ballot. The Constitution of California allows for recall elections to be held, if petitioners can collect signatures equal to 12% of the number of votes cast in the last election. In 2018, 12,464,235 total votes were cast in the governor's race. The current recall petition has currently collected [495 thousand](https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/recalls/newsom-heatlie-sixth.pdf) signatures out of the 1.5 million needed. Will California Gov Gavin Newsom have a recall effort reach the signature threshold needed for certification before Mar 31, 2022 ? This question resolves positive if the California Secretary of State certifies that a recall petition has reached the 1,495,709 signatures needed to trigger a r...
-# Forecasts: 428
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5986/glastonbury-festival-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 45%
-Description: The 50th Glastonbury Festival was supposed to take place in 2020, but was [cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-glastonbury-festival/) . It is now [scheduled to take place 23rd - 27th June 2021](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-glastonbury-festival/#FAQ) . The organisers are ['doing everything they can' to make the festival go ahead in 2021, but are 'still quite a long way from being able to say we're confident 2021 will go ahead'](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-55315202) . Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021? This question resolves positively if a Glastonbury Festival with at least 100,000 people present and lasting at least 72 hours takes place in Pilton, Somerset in 2021. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
-# Forecasts: 63
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the unemployment rate be for German law degree holders in 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5987/unemployment-rate-for-german-lawyers-in-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [Artificial Intelligence (AI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence) is causing job losses in many sectors. While the most obvious jobs being lost are related to easily automatizable tasks in factories [ [1](http://(https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/understanding-job-loss-predictions-from-artificial-intelligence/)) ], [many expect](https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/08/self-driving-cars-will-destroy-a-lot-of-jobs-theyll-also-create-a-lot/) large numbers of jobs to be lost in the transportation sector in the coming years due to self-driving cars. However, not all job losses are related to lower class workers, [but also to higher class such as lawyers](https://www.forbes.com/sites/cognitiveworld/2019/02/09/will-a-i-put-lawyers-out-of-business/) . These trends affect all industrialized nations. The German unemployment rate has, however, been [decreasing steadily for a number of years](http://(https://www.statista.com/statistics/227005/unemployment-rate-in-...
-# Forecasts: 30
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: For the month of February 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5990/february-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ======= [Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees. It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. You can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta...
-# Forecasts: 67
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q2 of 2021, in the US?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5991/us-commercial-real-estate-vacancy-q2-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ======= The coronavirus pandemic represents an unprecedented disruption to the commercial real estate market. Workplace policies are changing in remote-compatible industries – there is an ever-growing [list of companies](https://www.fastcompany.com/90508784/heres-an-ever-growing-list-of-companies-that-will-let-people-work-from-home-forever) shifting toward allowing employees to work from home, in some cases permanently. At the same time, nearly half of retailers are not paying rent – only 58.6% of retail rents [were paid](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/03/next-big-problem-businesses-cant-or-wont-pay-their-rent-its-setting-off-dangerous-chain-reaction/) in April and May. However, with the winter season entering full gear, holiday retail sales are expected to increase [3.6 to 5.2%](https://nrf.com/research/monthly-economic-review-december-2020) over 2019 with total sales estimated between $755B and 766B, which should hopefully increase the ability for retailers ...
-# Forecasts: 37
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5992/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ======= Private equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded. As with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations. Total annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were: ---2008: $312 ---2009: $138 ---2010: $284 ---2011: $336 ---2012: $375 ---2013: $434 ---2014 $544 ---2015 $512 ---2016 $610 ...
-# Forecasts: 38
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5993/washington-q1-2021-business-income--q1-2019/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 40%
-Description: Context ======= Travel restrictions, market crashes, lockdown orders, and many other consequences related to COVID-19 are affecting businesses and workers. As of now, over 300,000 Americans have died from COVID-19, however, with a vaccine on the way, the economy should, hopefully, be able to re-open and begin normal, pre-COVID operations in 2021. Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019? Resolution Criteria =================== Gross business income (across all industries) for each quarter can be found [here](http://apps.dor.wa.gov/ResearchStats/Content/GrossBusinessIncome/Report.aspx) . Data until Q2 is currently available. Another question for Q1 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3923/what-will-washington-states-department-of-revenue-report-as-the-2020-q1-gross-business-income/)
-# Forecasts: 38
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5994/-change-in-pc-insurance-premiums-q1-2022/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ======= The property and casualty insurance market is a [$1.6 trillion industry](https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial%20services/our%20insights/state%20of%20property%20and%20casualty%20insurance%202020/state-of-property-and-casualty-insurance-2020.ashx#:~:text=As%20a%20whole%2C%20property%20and,has%20yet%20to%20be%20disrupted.), and according to McKinsey, “remains one of the few industries that has yet to be disrupted.” P&C insurance premiums represent an important metric for business owners as they plan for the cost of protecting their businesses from risk. According to the [National Association of Insurance Commissioners](https://www.naic.org/documents/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf) : Soft market conditions have gripped the U.S. property and casualty insurance industry since 2007. Some characteristics of a soft market are flat or declining rates, more relaxed underwriting standards, and incr...
-# Forecasts: 20
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5995/will-us-peak-unemployment-in-2021-be-in-q1/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 67%
-Description: Context ======= In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, the US unemployment rate spiked to 14.7% in April, but has since decreased to 6.7% by November. Heading into winter, where outdoor social distancing becomes more difficult, and the holiday season draws people towards socializing with family and friends, COVID-19 deaths peaked over [300,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) with over [2,500](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths) new deaths a day by December 16th. Rising cases and failure to social distance can [push cities back into lockdown](https://www.usatoday.com/storytelling/coronavirus-reopening-america-map/), causing economic dure...
-# Forecasts: 44
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5996/cares-act-unemployment-payments-in-2021-q1/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ======= In the U.S., 2020 Q2 saw vastly expanded unemployment insurance transfers ([FRED source](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/W825RC1)), up to approximately $1.1 trillion in 2020 Q2 from a baseline of $27.7 billion in 2019 (figures seasonally adjusted and annualized). A [large fraction](https://www.bea.gov/system/files/2020-07/effects-of-selected-federal-pandemic-response-programs-on-personal-income-2020q2-advance.pdf) of this increase was due to the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (PUC) program, which provided an additional $600/week unemployment payment until it expired on July 31st, 2020. A new [COVID-19 relief bill](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/14/what-is-in-the-bipartisan-coronavirus-relief-bill-unveiled-monday.html) came before Congress this Monday, December 14th, offering $908 billion dollars. “The package is broken into two bills: The $738 billion Bipartisan Emergency COVID Relief Act of 2020 includes funding for enhanced unemployment benefits, anoth...
-# Forecasts: 97
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ======= Every quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter. You can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth) . The US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Metaculus estimates the [Q4 GDP growth rate](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5660/us-q4-2020-gdp-growth-rate/) for 2020 will be approximately 8.44%. What will the US Q1 2021 annualized GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate? Resolution Criteria =================== This data is expected to be released sometime in early Q2 2021. Resolution should c...
-# Forecasts: 79
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. After [launching](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fm3HWDZKtwdkvBzGL/introducing-high-impact-athletes) at the end of November, their website now lists 20 professional athletes who have taken the pledge. This question asks: How many athletes with HIA pledges will there be at the end of 2021? To count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. If HIA ceases to exis...
-# Forecasts: 41
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6000/lives-saved-by-seconddosedelay-for-vaccine/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 80%
-Description: Delaying the second dose would allow more people to be vaccinated faster. This could control the pandemic sooner if immunity does not fade too quickly after the first dose. The effectiveness of vaccine over time with/without the second dose is still being studied. Both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines were designed to be administered in two doses, 21 days apart for Pfizer and 28 days for Moderna. [Michael Mina](https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) and [Zeynep Tupfekci](https://twitter.com/zeynep?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) advocate for investigating the possibility of delaying the second dose in the NYTimes. They describe many important considerations, including one of the key reasons for optimism about [#SecondDoseDelay](https://twitter.com/search?q=%23SecondDoseDelay&src=typeahead_click) : For both vaccines, the sharp drop in disease in the vaccinated group started about 10 to 14 days aft...
-# Forecasts: 115
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 6%?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6002/gwp-growth-to-exceed-6/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world. When will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 6%? This question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that: Moreover, GWP at T must exceed 180% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior. Each year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD. [World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.
-# Forecasts: 30
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. After [launching](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fm3HWDZKtwdkvBzGL/introducing-high-impact-athletes) at the end of November, their website now lists 20 professional athletes who have taken the pledge, and $44,000 already donated. This question asks: How much money will have been donated by HIA athletes by the end of 2021? To count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities, donations from athletes who have not made this commitment will not be counted. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current lower bound is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/impact), but at the time of q...
-# Forecasts: 41
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What fraction of High Impact Athletes pledge-takers will maintain it through the end of 2024?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6005/fraction-of-hia-pledges-still-active-in-2024/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. After [launching](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fm3HWDZKtwdkvBzGL/introducing-high-impact-athletes) at the end of November, their website now lists 20 professional athletes who have taken the pledge. Two questions about the success of their first year are: [Total donated by HIA athletes by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/) [Number of HIA pledges by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/) This question asks: What fraction of athletes who take the pledge before the end of 2021 will maintain it through the end of 2024? To count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earni...
-# Forecasts: 29
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6007/vaccine-update-due-to-mutation/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 99%
-Description: There are already several notable variants of SARS-COV-2 circulating, two of the highest profile are described below. In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/) . This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. On 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. Three days later, in response, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-55056375) a new set of national restrictions, including a "Tier 4" full lockdown across the southeast, and considerable curtailment of the plans to ease restrictions for 5 days over the Christmas period. It is at least in p...
-# Forecasts: 299
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 57.99999999999999%
-Description: On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London. The spread of a new variant has [prompted concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html) that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) has the following to say about this possibility: The new variant has mutations to the spike ...
-# Forecasts: 152
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6010/england-proportion-of-hospital-acquired-covid/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Even in normal times, nosocomial or hospital-acquired infections in the United Kingdom are believed to cause thousands of deaths each year. The first SARS had a strong tendency to spread in hospital settings, and although conflicting estimates exist of the prevalence of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection, numerous hospital outbreaks have been documented. There is significant concern in the UK about hospital-acquired COVID, with NHS England having recently estimated that some 1 in 6 confirmed cases are "probable healthcare-associated infections". In the end, what proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings? --- Estimated proportion of all COVID infections throughout England's pandemic which were acquired in hospitals or other health care settings, not to include nursing / care homes. --- Resolves as the median of estimates (or the geometric mean of the two median estimates). --- If no estimates are available at resolve time, ...
-# Forecasts: 57
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elden_Ring) : Elden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more "natural evolution" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries wou...
-# Forecasts: 28
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6018/burger-king-to-cease-using-gestation-stalls/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 8%
-Description: Restaurant Brands International is the parent company for Burger King and various other fast-food chains. In their [now-taken-down 2016 Sustainability Framework](https://www.rbi.com/Cache/IRCache/33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380&iid=4591210) (p. 6.) ([archive link #1](https://web.archive.org/web/20200902082204/https://www.rbi.com/Cache/IRCache/33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380&iid=4591210), [archive link #2](https://archive.is/JcAS2)), they stated: “Restaurant Brands International is committed to sourcing pork globally only from suppliers that do not use gestation stalls, and we aim to accomplish this goal in North America by 2022.” A gestation crate, also known as a sow stall, is a metal enclosure in which a farmed sow used for breeding may be kept during pregnancy. Animal welfare advocates regard the use of gestation cr...
-# Forecasts: 48
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6020/charity-entrepreneurship-to-birth-top-ace-ngo/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 45%
-Description: Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/charity-ideas.html#) . Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in " [Evaluating Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/) ", the evaluation criteria are described in " [Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/) ". Will any of the nonprofit...
-# Forecasts: 48
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6021/ce-to-incubate-ace-recommended-ngo-by-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 60%
-Description: Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/charity-ideas.html#) . Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in " [Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/) ", the evaluation criteria are described in " [Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/) ". Will any of the nonprofit...
-# Forecasts: 40
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The movement to reduce wild-animal suffering is relatively new (see: [Timeline of wild-animal suffering](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_wild-animal_suffering)). It was previously the realm of charismatic individuals, with organizations working on the topic being started from 2013 onwards. A course at a top university would constitute a further step towards mainstream acceptance. When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university? To qualify as a "top", a university needs to be in the top-200 of [QS World University Rankings](https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings) or in the top-200 of QS's rating for biological sciences at the time the course is taught. This question will resolve as the date the course starts, and retroactively close on the date the course was announced. If QS stops publishing any of the ratings, a clarification to this question will be made and another major university rating system will be chosen instead. If ...
-# Forecasts: 79
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6023/charity-in-china-to-ace-aces-criteria/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 25%
-Description: Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in " [Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/) ", the evaluation criteria are described in " [Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/) ". As of November 2020, the [Good Food Fund](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-review/good-food-fund/), which primarily operates in China, has been rated as a Standout Charity by ACE, i.e., the level below "Top Charity". Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?...
-# Forecasts: 81
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6024/sexual-scandal-amongst-animal-advocates/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 15%
-Description: [Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. One of their major focuses is building the global animal welfare community, and any kind of scandal in their midst would be a significant setback. Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021? Whether an event is a "scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances" will be resolved per the ["I know it when I see it"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_know_it_when_I_see_it) standard from [Jacobellis v. Ohio](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacobellis_v._Ohio), possibly after consulting with ACE. In case of disagreement among Metaculus users, Metaculus Admins will decide resolution. This question belongs to the [Animal Chari...
-# Forecasts: 66
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6025/diversity-debacle-amongst-animal-advocates/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 18%
-Description: [Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. One of their major focuses is building the global animal welfare community, and any kind of scandal in their midst would be a significant setback. ACE explicitly includes "the organization has a healthy attitude toward representation/diversity, equity, and inclusion (R/DEI)" as part of "Criterion 5: Leadership and Culture", one of their seven [evaluation criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/) during their evaluation process. This approach has previously drawn both praise and criticism, for example with respect to their grant to [Encompass](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ePDKZMpoGdx7J3PBh/announcing-our-summer-2020-ace-movement-grants#Encom...
-# Forecasts: 64
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6026/2021-donations-to-animal-charity-evaluators/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a US-based non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals. The coronavirus pandemic is expected to affect donations, and I'm curious to see if Metaculus can predict ACE's finances in a time of uncertainty. On the other hand, Effective Altruism, a broader movement dedicated to "doing the most good" with which ACE identifies, has in the past considered [counter-cyclical donation schedules](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NasdMzQfx2yT7AE9r/increase-impact-by-waiting-for-a-recession-to-donate-or) (i.e., to donate more to charities in a recession), but it's unclear to what extent the idea has gained traction. How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021? This question will be resolved according to ACE's own [financials page](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/transparency/financials/), which includes data for past years. For example, ACE...
-# Forecasts: 27
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6027/money-moved-by-animal-charity-evaluators/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a US-based non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals. The coronavirus pandemic is expected to affect donations, and I'm curious to see if Metaculus can predict how much money ACE will influence in a time of uncertainty. On the other hand, Effective Altruism, a broader movement dedicated to "doing the most good" with which ACE identifies, has in the past considered [counter-cyclical donation schedules](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NasdMzQfx2yT7AE9r/increase-impact-by-waiting-for-a-recession-to-donate-or) (i.e., to donate more to charities in a recession), but it's unclear to what extent the idea has gained traction. How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021? This will be straightforwardly resolved as the number ACE claims on their own [financials page](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/transparency/financial...
-# Forecasts: 37
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6028/nobel-prize-for-mmt-by-2041/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 25%
-Description: [Modern Monetary Theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory) is currently a heterodox economics theory. MMT is debated with active dialogues about its theoretical integrity, the implications of the policy recommendations of its proponents, and the extent to which it is actually divergent from orthodox macroeconomics. Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01? This question resolves 'Yes' if any Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences is awarded before 2041-01-01 when both of these are true: A. To a person who, at any point, identifies as a founder, developer, or core contributor to MMT OR is considered as one of the core contributors or founders of MMT according to at least one peer-reviewed review articles or book chapter on the topic. B. The justification for the prize by the committee attributes the award to that person's contribution to MMT, Macroeconomics, or a core macroeconomics principle/idea (deficit, inflation, interest rates, go...
-# Forecasts: 18
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6029/flights-on-iata-vaccine-passports-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The [Travel Pass Initiative](https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/) of the [International Air Transport Association](https://www.iata.org/), now in its final stages before launch, aims "to re-open borders without quarantine" by giving passengers the ability to share verifiable, accurate information on their COVID-19 health status, including vaccination and testing. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of ["immunoprivilege,"](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be. How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes? --- Applies to verification of any aspect of COV...
-# Forecasts: 110
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6031/more-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 90%
-Description: A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in southeast England in November 2020. A [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf) suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants. We estimate that VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible (95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. Another variant under concern is [501.V2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_Variant), which was first detected in South Africa and reported by the country's health department on 18 December 2020. The COVID-19 [South African Online Portal](https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2020/12/18/update-on-covid-19-18th-december-2020/?__cf_chl_captcha_tk__=be2f838cf56453016ad7dbf99d77089d843aa3ff-1609007372-0-AUbF61m4dEBXtFnkpTnnvmtcjtHti_qPvax6cPxQzAFDxa...
-# Forecasts: 380
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/) ] [Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency) . It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depres...
-# Forecasts: 75
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6047/1m-lost-in-prediction-market/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 30%
-Description: There are many prediction markets now. Some popular ones are Predictit, FTX, Polymarket, and Augur. The latter three are crypto based; FTX being centralized while the other two are decentralized. Some crypto projects (unrelated to prediction markets) have been hacked, causing users to lose money. Some other crypto projects have led to exit scams with the same effect. Will any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023? This resolves positively if any prediction market causes more than $1 million in losses to users before 2023. This includes if the cause is hacking, an exit scam by the operators, a glitch causing funds to be lost, or an unambiguously incorrect resolution on some questions. For example, if a prediction market would pay out today that Trump won the 2020 election, that would count. Losses from predictions being resolved correctly do not count. Losses from coins losing value in exchange rate do not count unless the prediction platform in question was pri...
-# Forecasts: 49
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6048/tomb-of-the-first-qin-emperor-opened/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The World Heritage-listed [Mausoleum of the First Qin Emperor](https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/441/) in the Shaanxi province of China was constructed in the third century BC. It is a necropolis, of which the ["garrison" of Terracotta Warriors](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2016/10/china-first-emperor-terra-cotta-warriors-tomb/) is probably the best known feature. The Chinese history Records of the Grand Historian [says the tomb chamber has arrow traps and "rivers" and "seas" of mercury](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mausoleum_of_the_First_Qin_Emperor#History) . The craftsmen who worked on the mausoleum were said to have been buried alive inside of it. Unusually high levels of mercury have been found at the site, lending credence to the account of "rivers of mercury". However, others have attributed the readings to local industrial pollution. The risk of active traps and mercury poisoning are sometimes given as the reason why the main tomb chamber - where the first emperor o...
-# Forecasts: 19
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 74%
-Description: Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with [a person of the year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year. Since 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in 2000 and 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and [Joe Biden and Kamala Harris](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2020-joe-biden-kamala-harris) in 2020. Before then, the president-elect was also Time person of the year in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1964, 1948, and 1932. Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect? This resolves positively if the Time person of the year in 2024 is the president-elect or both the president- and vice-president-elect, as determined by projected electoral votes as called by the Associated Press.
-# Forecasts: 77
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 35%
-Description: In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) In a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/) Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election? Credible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary
-# Forecasts: 369
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: What will be the median age of an employed person in the US in 2040?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6055/us-median-age-of-employed-person-by-2040/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Background ========== The US expects to see an increase in the age of its labor force as more workers put off full time retirement at the traditional age of 65. Slowing population growth amongst American citizens, as well as declining societal support for seniors, work together to increase the median age of the average worker in the US labor force. In 2019, the median age for employment in the US was 42.3, up from 42.1 in 2011. However, as the [struggles surrounding social security](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/12/business/social-security-shortfall-2020.html) rise, both from higher average life expectancies and and a growing elderly population, the US could see an increasingly older workforce. Barring the influence of population growth, the difference between the number of employed workers ages 16-19 and 65+ have increased from just over 2,000k workers to over 5,000k from 2011 to 2019, a trend that supports the slow growth of the median age. Although, according to a [research pap...
-# Forecasts: 17
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6056/us-employment-of-ages-16-24-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Background ========== Economic downturns and periods of unemployment significantly affect the younger members of the workforce. With COVID-19 hitting the industries which often employ younger workers, such as leisure and hospitality, employment for the age group of young workers (16-24) jumped from [8% to almost 25%](https://www.epi.org/publication/young-workers-covid-recession/) between spring of 2019 and 2020. Young workers are expected to face significant hardship in the labor market even after the end of the pandemic, with long run negative effects in their futures, mimicking the economic downturn and effects brought about for young workers by the Great Recession in 2008. As young workers attempt to enter the workforce to support their families, find jobs after college, or pay for their current education, monitoring their employment levels could act as an important measure of the health and growth of the economy. How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed ...
-# Forecasts: 19
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Background ========== The US Labor Force is aging. As the population ages and social security flounders, more people over the age of 65 find themselves rejoining the workforce and entering the job market. The [AARP](https://www.aarp.org/work/employers/info-2019/americans-working-past-65.html) finds that: “As of February 2019, more than 20 percent of adults over age 65 are either working or looking for work, compared with 10 percent in 1985, says the report from United Income, a financial planning and investment management company targeted to those ages 50 to 70. The study analyzed data from the Current Population Survey, a report compiled monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS expects the trend of older people working to continue, estimating that 13 million Americans age 65 and older will be in the labor force by 2024.” Oldest workers over 65 years of age were disproportionately hit hardest by the economic downturn of the Coronavirus with ...
-# Forecasts: 19
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6060/number-employed-in-us-retail-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Background ========== The world of retail is changing. As one of the hardest hit industries by COVID-19, the retail market has changed dramatically in order to reach customers in 2020. While the majority population of all generations within the US still [prefer a physical store](https://review42.com/retail-statistics/), 42% of Gen-Zers prefer to shop online. The e-commerce industry is expected to breach the $4 trillion mark in 2020, however, this does not mean that the retail industry is dying. The retail industry as a whole, including e-commerce, is expected to continue to grow. While falling to its slowest growth rate in 2020 at an estimated [4.1%](https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/retail-industry-growth-rate), the industry is expected to reach parity with pre-COVID-19 growth rates by 2021. In 2011, approximately [19.7](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) million people were employed in the wholesale and retail trade industries, a number which has remained unchanged since 20...
-# Forecasts: 35
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6061/number-employed-in-us-transport-industry-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Background ========== Between 2011 and 2019, the number of people employed in the transportation and warehousing industries [increased by almost 2 million](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) . Movements in the gig economy with the ride transportation market growing could greatly influence the potential growth of the number of people officially employed in the transportation industry. Over the last decade, the number of people employed in the taxi service industry grew over [500,000](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) . However, in heated debates with California, [Uber has declared](https://www.cnet.com/news/uber-says-158000-drivers-will-lose-work-if-theyre-reclassified-as-employees/) that movements to employ their drivers could actually reduce levels of employment among their drivers. How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)? Resolution Criteria =================== Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau ...
-# Forecasts: 41
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6062/number-employed-in-us-education-industry-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Background ========== The number of people employed in the US educational systems rose approximately [1.2 million](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) over the last decade between 2011 and 2019. However, this growth is not expected to continue. By 2026, only [300,000](https://www.statista.com/statistics/683023/us-employment-projection-for-education-sector/#:~:text=U.S.%20employment%20projection%20for%20education%20sector%202019%2D2026&text=This%20statistic%20shows%20the%20projected,have%20around%2014.47%20million%20employees.) more people are expected to be employed in this industry, an unpleasant reality for a country with a government which routinely cuts the budgets for its public education facilities. In February of 2020, [President Trump announced](https://www.forbes.com/sites/wesleywhistle/2020/02/10/trump-budget-proposes-cuts-to-education/?sh=368679fe708d) a new plan which would cut the education budgets by 8%. He also supported plans to cut standardized loans for stu...
-# Forecasts: 32
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the US achieve racial unemployment parity between racial groups labeled 'black' and 'white' by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6064/us-black-white-unemployment-parity/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Background ========== The gap in unemployment between black and white workers between the ages 35-44 stood at 2 percentage points in 2019, with black workers observing unemployment levels almost twice as high as those of their white peers. In 2020, this historical trend between workers of all ages intensified. “The [Black unemployment rate](https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/news/2020/09/28/490702/persistent-black-white-unemployment-gap-built-labor-market/) reached a high of 16.6 percent in May 2020, and as of August 2020, it was still at 13.2 percent. Conversely, the white unemployment rate fell to 6.9 percent in August 2020 from a high of 12.8 percent in April, or nearly half of the Black unemployment rate. The ratio of Black-to-white unemployment went from 1.27 in April 2020 to 1.97 in August 2020—that is, the Black unemployment rate is currently double the white unemployment rate.” In case of the 2007 recession, the employment impacts in the US were felt most strongl...
-# Forecasts: 50
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6065/us-federal-budget-for-income-security-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Background ========== In 2020, with the spread of the Coronavirus pandemic, income security spending increased to [$1.5 trillion dollars by December 2020](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function) . In Q1 2020, the allocated budget was only 7.9% of the total budget, with a monetary value of $134.7 billion dollars. However, by Q2, the percentage of the budget jumped up 2% to 9.8%. By Q3, it became the greatest percentage of the federal budget, over military, social security, and all healthcare payments, at more than 15%. With the [new stimulus package/COVID-19 relief funding](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/everything-in-the-new-stimulus-bill-600-stimulus-300-unemployment-checks-more/) expected for release sometime in 2021, at a total of over $900 billion dollars, the budget allocated for income security is likely to remain higher than normal. As the US attempts to re-open the economy, and lower the rate of transmission with the newly introduced vaccine, what the fed...
-# Forecasts: 34
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6066/us-federal-budget-for-medicare-in-2024/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Background ========== [Medicare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicare_(United_States)), brought into existence by President Johnson in 1966, aimed to provide health insurance to US citizens over the age of 65 and to other individuals with disability status. In 2018, Medicare provided aid to almost 60 million individuals across America. At the end of 2020, Medicare constituted the second largest portion of the federal budget at 13.5% with a total monetary allocation of $1.3 trillion dollars. While beneficial to millions of Americans, the program still faces distrust and dislike by some portions of the American public, and most recently, President Trump. In January 2020, President [Trump announced](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/01/22/trump-appears-open-overhauling-social-security-medicare-break-2016-campaign/) that if elected again, he would begin the process of rolling back essential programs like Medicare and Social Security. Although President Elect Biden secured the...
-# Forecasts: 27
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the income ratio between men and women employed full-time by 2025 in the US?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6070/us-gender-income-ratio-by-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Background ========== The gender based pay gap has long existed as an issue across the US. Across all professions, levels of seniority, and time spent working, women made only [$0.81 to even man’s dollar](https://www.payscale.com/data/gender-pay-gap) . Up 2% from 2019, and 7% from 2015, this gap is continuing to slowly close. It is estimated that without gender based pay discrimination and inequality, the natural gap would exist at approximately 98%. Considering only individuals who work full time, ages 15 and greater, the gap is actually smaller, with rates in 2019 at [almost 83%](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/visualizations/2020/demo/p60-270/figure5.pdf) . Across the country, women are consistently employed in part time jobs at rates much higher than men, a significant factor in the continuation of these pay differneces. [Working part time fuels the pay gap](https://www.epi.org/publication/part-time-pay-penalty/) and general gender inequality by decreasing hourl...
-# Forecasts: 20
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 68%
-Description: On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset. In Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process. Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021? This question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [...
-# Forecasts: 122
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, "I Want My Hat Back"?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The ending of the children's book " [I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8) " by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI? I call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test. I am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). See the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920) . So what do you think? When will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book "I Want My Hat Back" and accurately answer the question: "What happened to the rabbit"? This resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book "...
-# Forecasts: 186
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: One of [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) 's focus areas for making grants is reducing the chances of a [global catastrophic risk from advanced artificial intelligence](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence) . In previous years, the total amounts granted were: ---2020: $14,210,367 ---2019: $63,234,500 ([including a $55,000,000 grant to found the Center for Security and Emerging Technology](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/georgetown-university-center-security-and-emerging-technology)) ---2018: $4,160,392 ---2017: $43,222,473 ([including a $30,000,000 grant of general support to OpenAI](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/openai-general-support)) ---2016: $7,749,985 ---2015: $1,186,000 ([to the Future of Life Institute](Future of Life Institute)) How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their fo...
-# Forecasts: 44
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 21%
-Description: Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for "discriminating Russian media's content". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him. Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021? This question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively.
-# Forecasts: 130
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6100/average-democracy-index-score-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Every year The Economist publishes the "Democracy Index," scoring entities (166 countries, plus Hong Kong) from 0 to 10 based on five criteria (electoral process & pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties). The most recent report is for 2019, and includes scores for 167 countries. Norway scores the highest at 9.87, and North Korea is last at 1.08. The global average is 5.44. The numerical scores are also grouped into 4 categories: --- Full democracies (8-10]; 22 countries in 2019 --- Flawed democracies (6-8]; 54 countries in 2019 --- Hybrid regimes (4-6]; 37 countries in 2019 --- Authoritarian regimes ([0-4]; 54 countries in 2019 What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021? This prediction resolves as the raw, unweighted arithmetic mean of all scores as assigned by The Economist for its report covering 2021. (I expect this to be published sometime in early 2022.) Note that not everything that gets a...
-# Forecasts: 31
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6102/anti-5g-attack-to-take-life-in-20212022/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 35%
-Description: U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies [warned in May of 2020](https://www.wired.com/story/the-dhs-prepares-for-attacks-fueled-by-5g-conspiracy-theories/) of escalating threats against 5G infrastructure. British [telecoms masts have been burned](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse) and [British telecoms workers menaced](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse) ; much the same at lesser scale has taken place in many other countries. Then on Christmas Day 2020 came [the bombing in Nashville](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nashville_bombing) of an AT&T building by a lone wolf extremist, who took himself out in the blast, but no others. Will an anti-5G attack take another's life in 2021 or 2022? Will a non-perpetrator be killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology before January 1st, 2...
-# Forecasts: 19
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6104/b117-to-lock-down-3m-in-us-by-2021-03-11/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 33%
-Description: SARS-CoV-2 var. B.1.1.7, the coronavirus strain first identified in the United Kingdom, is likely already seeded in most areas of the world. At question-writing time the community thinks it is [probably at least 50% more transmissible](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/6089/50-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/) than previous strains. If so this is likely to have serious consequences. [The New York Times describes](https://www.baltimoresun.com/coronavirus/sns-nyt-new-virus-variant-response-20201231-o7ducojblzbnrli7jdneisnc2u-story.html) the situation as "threatening to complicate what had seemed a hopeful, if halting, path to recovery" and quotes an expert describing "the overall picture" as "pretty grim." Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021? Resolves positive if at any point, a total of three million or more people in the United States are reported to be under lockdown specifically because of B117. "Lockdown" means, in general, extraor...
-# Forecasts: 154
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. Herd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. However, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immuni...
-# Forecasts: 151
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/) ] In March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c)...
-# Forecasts: 48
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6108/norway-eea-membership-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 5%
-Description: In 1994 Norway joined the EEA (at its creation) meaning that it participates in the single market allowing for the freer flow of goods, services, capital and people, but Norway doesn't have a say on the content of the rules of the single market as it is not in the EU. Also being in the EEA, but not in the EU allows countries to be outside of the EU VAT area, Common fisheries policy (this is seen as particularly important for Norway), Common Agricultural Policy, the Customs Union and the jurisdiction of the ECJ. When the implementation period ended the UK left the EEA and Sweden was just a member of the EEA before it entered the EU a year later in 1995. On 31 December 2020 the UK entered into a trade agreement with the EU and left the EEA giving the UK more control of standards, but more trade friction due to rules of origin (though there is a one year exemption) and divergence of standards. In this context the [Center party in Norway has suggested it wants to leave the EEA and is perfo...
-# Forecasts: 46
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6109/ea-donations-to-new-charities-in-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities. The Against Malaria Foundation was the most funded charity, with $1.1 million; followed by GiveWell, with $837,000. In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020? Donation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously. The set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey. A charity is considered to exist at the date of whichever of the following conditions occurs first: 1--The charity becomes a legally register...
-# Forecasts: 32
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6111/khan-final-round-mayoral-election-vote-share/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat. [The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London) . It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. --- If a candidate receives more than 50% o...
-# Forecasts: 76
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6114/will-the-senate-confirm-many-judges-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The number of federal judges each president can get confirmed in the US Senate is enormously consequential for US government and policy. In 2019, the US Senate confirmed 102 judges, the 2nd highest total in its history. In 2020, [the Senate confirmed 55 judges (see previous Metaculus question here)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3514/how-many-judges-will-the-us-senate-confirm-in-2020/) . However, with a divided government looking likely in 2021, the Senate may confirm far fewer judges in 2021. Or they might confirm a whole lot. So: How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021? Resolution will be based on the number of judges confirmed in 2021 as listed on [this .gov page](https://www.uscourts.gov/judges-judgeships/judicial-vacancies/confirmation-listing) of US judges confirmed by Congress. If that source becomes unavailable, a source of comparable quality, including credible media reports if necessary, should be used at resolution time.
-# Forecasts: 64
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will there be at least one billion Americans?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6119/when-will-there-be-at-least-1bn-americans/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [One Billion Americans: The Case for Thinking Bigger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Billion_Americans) is a book by [Matthew Yglesias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Yglesias), first published in 2020. One Billion Americans argues for a variety of programs, including increased government spending on child care and day care, the use of S-trains for urban transportation, and increased immigration to the United States, under the general rubric of increasing the American population. It suggests that a substantial increase to the population of the United States is necessary to perpetuate American hegemony. The book gives special attention to housing policy, critiquing zoning requirements that limit urban density in American cities. As of January 2021, [the US population is estimated to be approximately 330,779,000.](https://www.census.gov/popclock/) You can view [historical US population data since 1935 here.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Vita...
-# Forecasts: 64
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The [Index of Economic Freedom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom) is an annual index and ranking created in 1995 by conservative, pro-market think-tank The Heritage Foundation and the The Wall Street Journal to measure the degree of economic freedom in the world's nations. The creators of the index claim to take an approach inspired by Adam Smith's in The Wealth of Nations, that "basic institutions that protect the liberty of individuals to pursue their own economic interests result in greater prosperity for the larger society". In 2020, [the United Kingdom was ranked 7th in the world](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/unitedkingdom?version=241), with an overall score of 79.3. In 2020, [the United Kingdom left the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit) . Some observers have suggested that the UK should seek to profit from Brexit by becoming a more economically free country after leaving the EU; this concept is sometimes known as [Singapore-on...
-# Forecasts: 24
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6124/astrazenecaoxford-vaccine-us-eua-date/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: AZD1222 (the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine) has been approved for use by [the United Kingdom](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine-authorised-by-uk-medicines-regulator) and granted emergency use authorization by [Argentina](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-argentina-astrazen/argentine-regulator-approves-astrazeneca-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-idUSKBN29421P), [El Salvador](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-el-salvador-vaccin/el-salvador-greenlights-astrazeneca-oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-idINKBN2942HQ), and [India](https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india-vaccine-idINKBN296290) . This vaccine has been highly anticipated, [promising benefits](https://www.vox.com/21590994/oxford-vaccine-results-covid-19-astrazeneca-trial-pfizer-moderna) such as stable storage in normal refrigerators and doses costing $3 to $4. However, as of January 3rd, Phase III trials are still on...
-# Forecasts: 55
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6125/quality-of-retinal-implants-in-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. Many millions are blind as a result of conditions that currently have no effective treatment, such as age-related macular degeneration. AMD is already a leading cause of incurable blindness in developed countries, and likely to become increasingly prevalent worldwide as standards of living and life expectancies increase. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of AMD, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date [four such devices have been approved](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6350159/) by regulators. The best visual acuity achieved, by the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/), has been 1.8 logMAR (20/1260) over an 18×11° section – a life-changing impro...
-# Forecasts: 47
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of age-related macular degeneration, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date one such device has been approved by regulators, the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/) . However, when the retina or optic nerve itself is damaged, as typical of glaucoma, a more radical approach may be necessary. The same company that released the Argus II is currently trialing the [Orion](https://www.bcm.edu/news/second-sight-study-brings-sight-to-blind), a similar device that implants directly into the visual cortex. Described as "basically a modified Argus II," it is likely to be approved within a few years. How good will the best available vis...
-# Forecasts: 47
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6127/maximum-number-of-covid-19-cases-by-june-1st/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day. Recently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants. What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021 This question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. This question will resolve on June 7th 2021...
-# Forecasts: 97
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How much money will GiveWell move in 2031?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6140/how-much-money-will-givewell-move-in-2031/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. GiveWell tracks how much money it moves to recommended charities. For instance, GiveWell [moved $152 million](https://blog.givewell.org/2020/12/09/givewells-money-moved-in-2019/) in 2019. How much money will GiveWell move in 2031? If GiveWell does not exist, this question resolves as ambiguous. If GiveWell does not report its money moved in 2031 and this information is not publicly accessible, this question resolves as ambiguous. For this question, money moved equals the amount that can confidently be attributed to GiveWell's recommendations (in [the 2019 post](https://blog.givewell.org/2020/12/09/givewells-money-moved-in-2019/), "headline money moved" rather than "best guess of total money directed to charities").
-# Forecasts: 15
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: By January 14 2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6148/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2022-01-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539) ; [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). Recent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai....
-# Forecasts: 83
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6149/change-in-degree-of-automation/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . [The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States. O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated). How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022? For the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degr...
-# Forecasts: 88
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6154/sota-one-billion-words-2022-01-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models. The [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901....
-# Forecasts: 78
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6155/image-classification-index-2022-01-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. Index The index is constructed as follows: ---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index ---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 The following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index...
-# Forecasts: 71
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6157/ai-safety--other-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . AI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful b...
-# Forecasts: 66
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6158/fluvoxamine-to-get-eua-for-covid-in-us/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 15%
-Description: There is [theoretical](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7382922/) and [observational](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.09.20143339v2) data suggesting SSRI antidepressants might be helpful for Covid. Fluvoxamine (brand name Luvox) is an SSRI with [strong Sigma1R activation](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24508523/), which [may also be relevant](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00406-020-01231-x) . A recent [small preregistered RCT](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2773108) of Fluvoxamine reported a very positive effect, as did a not-yet-published [observational report](https://onedrive.live.com/?authkey=%21AOES37qSxYr%5FN88&cid=F3C3887684911EE4&id=F3C3887684911EE4%2163948&parId=F3C3887684911EE4%2159777&o=OneUp) . A [larger trial is underway](https://stopcovidtrial.wustl.edu/) by the same investigators as the first one. Summaries of the case for Fluvoxamine are available [here](https://www.treatearly.org/promising-dru...
-# Forecasts: 29
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6168/meetings-of-six-people-outside-in-england/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc) . The [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person). Before this lockdown, it was possible in some regions (those in 'tier 3' or below out of four) to meet others in public outdoor places, such as beaches or parks, but only in groups of up to 6 people. When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places? This question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in public outdoor places, such as beaches or parks. By 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to ...
-# Forecasts: 93
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc) . The [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person). In the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in "tier 1" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people. When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places? This question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house. By 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of p...
-# Forecasts: 52
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people. When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England? This question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn. 'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or wh...
-# Forecasts: 64
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many consecutive Presidents of the United States will there be?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6175/number-of-united-states-presidents/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The [United States of America](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States) is a North American country that was established on July 4, 1776. The first [President of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States) was George Washington, and Donald John Trump is the 45th and current President. Although it may seem hard to imagine a future where there is no President of the United States for an extended period of time, political systems and the fates of nations change over time. Until now, there have only been [minor gaps of a few days](https://www.quora.com/Whats-the-longest-time-the-United-States-has-gone-without-a-president) between the end of one president's term and the swearing in of the next. How many consecutive Presidents of the United States will there be, until that office remains vacant for a period of three consecutive months? The question will resolve after the first span of three consecutive months where the office of the President of the U...
-# Forecasts: 40
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 4%
-Description: Context Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. See this related question for a shorter timeframe: [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/) This question asks, Will the United Stat...
-# Forecasts: 162
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6182/sota-wikitext-103-2022-01-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models. The [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is k...
-# Forecasts: 71
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6183/sota-imagenet-2022-01-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. ImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by th...
-# Forecasts: 89
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6184/sota-on-squad20-2022-01-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250) . In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in ...
-# Forecasts: 65
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6185/multi-modal-ml-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . Multimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including lin...
-# Forecasts: 53
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6191/sota-on-miniimagenet-at-2022-01-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. The miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.o...
-# Forecasts: 73
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6192/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2031-01-01/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539) ; [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). Recent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai....
-# Forecasts: 66
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/) . This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539) . [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://e...
-# Forecasts: 70
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020. However, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So: When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19? Resolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.
-# Forecasts: 193
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6201/25-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020. However, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So: When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19? Resolves positive when 82.5 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.
-# Forecasts: 123
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 7.000000000000001%
-Description: The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse? Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021? This resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths) . This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000. If the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/) . Data updates meaning that m...
-# Forecasts: 354
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 24%
-Description: Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. Members of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. There are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building. Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20? This question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state. Resolution by credible reports a...
-# Forecasts: 99
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6221/patients-at-chinese-cryonics-org-by-2026/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: From the [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/health-wellness/article/3103054/freezing-bodies-reanimation-china-and-why-countrys), The Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute is the only cryonics research centre in China and one of only four such institutes in the world. The centres provide cryonic suspension: preserving bodies at extremely low temperatures with the hope of one day “reviving” them. But Yinfeng’s research goes further, and has the potential to revolutionise organ transplant, body-part reattachment and other medical treatments. According to the Oregon Cryonics page on [terminology](http://www.oregoncryo.com/terminology.html), We refer to a body or brain that we are trying to preserve as a patient. As of September 27th 2020, the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute is storing 10 patients. How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026? This question resolves as the number of patients st...
-# Forecasts: 18
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the next interstellar object be discovered?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6225/next-interstellar-object/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The first [interstellar object](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object), 1I/2017 (['Oumuamua](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CA%BBOumuamua)) was discovered by the Pan-STARRS survey in 2017. The second interstellar object, [2I/Borisov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2I/Borisov) was discovered at the MARGO observatory in Crimea in August 2019. Although only two Solar System interlopers of definitive interstellar origin have been discovered thus far, next generation sky surveys such as the [Vera Rubin Observatory/LSST](https://www.lsst.org/) (first light expected in October 2021) are expected to find more such objects. Nonetheless, the population and occurrence of these objects is relatively unconstrained. When will the next interstellar object be discovered? This question resolves on the date that a newly discovered interstellar object receives an ["I" designation](https://minorplanetcenter.net//mpec/K17/K17V17.html) from the [IAU Minor Planet Center](https://minorplanetcenter....
-# Forecasts: 45
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6227/sota-segmentation-cityscapes-2022-01-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf) . [Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et ...
-# Forecasts: 65
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2026-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6228/sota-on-imagenet-2026-12-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. ImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by th...
-# Forecasts: 60
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6229/sota-on-wikitext-103-2024-12-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models. The [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is k...
-# Forecasts: 66
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6230/sota-montezumas-revenge-2022-01-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . [Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade. At the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still far below the human [world record of...
-# Forecasts: 95
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6231/object-detection-index-2022-01-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14? The index is constructed as follows: --- We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index --- The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 The following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index: Object detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [Crowd...
-# Forecasts: 65
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2021 list?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6232/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-nov-21/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits. The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en...
-# Forecasts: 72
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/) . According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020. What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list? The question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that...
-# Forecasts: 79
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November. The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distr...
-# Forecasts: 99
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to December 2026?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6236/change-in-degree-of-automation-20-to-26/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . [The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States. O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated). For the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets): General and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Sof...
-# Forecasts: 78
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan) : 4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK. 4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date. The UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later. [This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55...
-# Forecasts: 172
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6240/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2022-01-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001) . To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf) . The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.w...
-# Forecasts: 71
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects. [According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th). When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500? This question retroactively closes and resolves as the first da...
-# Forecasts: 117
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6245/few-shot-learning-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . Few-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only...
-# Forecasts: 61
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6246/nlp-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . Natural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, pro...
-# Forecasts: 56
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in average precision (AP)?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6248/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2022-01-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is YOLOv4- large [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2011.08036v1.pdf), which achieves an average precision (AP) of 55.8. An ex...
-# Forecasts: 55
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976) . The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? This question resolves as the value of the Federal R...
-# Forecasts: 53
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6250/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2022-01-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . Reinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ...
-# Forecasts: 49
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6251/the-first-european-trillion-dollar-company/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Currently, only [five companies](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) in the world have a market capitalization valuation of more than USD 1 trillion. Four of them (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) are based in the United States. One of them is a Saudi Arabian oil company, Saudi Aramco. The list of companies with the highest market valuation is dominated by companies based in the USA and China. Only 3 European companies have a market valuation of more than $300 B. These are food producer Nestlé, healthcare company Roche, and luxury goods conglomerate LVMH. The most valuable tech company SAP has a valuation only above $150 B. When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company? This question will resolve positively on the day when credible media sources report that the first publicly traded European company has reached a market capitalization of $1 trillion. Value will be calculated by multiplying the total number of a company's outstanding shares by the current market price ...
-# Forecasts: 22
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6252/object-detection-index-2026-12-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14? The index is constructed as follows: --- We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index --- The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 The following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index: Object detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [Crowd...
-# Forecasts: 59
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6255/closing-price-igm-on-2030-12-13/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . [iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI. What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD? This question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2030-12-13, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM) . Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S) . In the case the ...
-# Forecasts: 49
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. A proxy for their demand is the median wage of the professionals with those skills. In the United States, as of 2019, the median wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists is $122,840 per year, according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) . What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD? This question resolves as the median wage for "Computer ...
-# Forecasts: 52
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day. When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19? This question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test. This should resolve according to [the "by date of death" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the "by date reported" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media. Note that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the...
-# Forecasts: 98
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6291/trump-family-indictments-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 33%
-Description: As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021), where Dylan Matthews suggests a prediction of 65% here. As Donald Trump leaves the presidency, there are open questions about his legal vulnerabilities and those of his family. There have been several issues raised that could, in principle, lead to members of the Trump family being charge with crimes. A key issue here is that, as president, Donald Trump only has the power pardon individuals for federal crimes and so states could still indict a Trump family member. Here are some articles describing these issues: --- [Trump’s Family Pardon Plan Might Make Him a Bigger Criminal Target](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/12/donald-trump-family-pardon-plan-ivanka-don-jr.html) --- [The Criminal Investigation Trump Can’t Pardon His Way Out of Is “Significantly Escalating”](h...
-# Forecasts: 141
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6295/increase-in-us-poverty-from-2020-to-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 61%
-Description: As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) . The state of the American economy and rising income inequality have been hot topics of recent political discourse even before the COVID-19 pandemic. While politicians continue to debate the best way to respond to the pandemic, the aid package passed in early 2020 appears to have had significant impact. By some measures the poverty rate fell despite lock-downs and a rise in unemployment. These measures eventually expired and the proportion of Americans in poverty rose as 2020 entered its final months. --- [US poverty fell in April and May due to federal relief programs, even as COVID-19 ravaged the economy, new study suggests](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-poverty-april-stimulus-may-federal-relief-programs-coronavirus-study-2020-6) --- [U.S. poverty jumps the most in ...
-# Forecasts: 58
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 66%
-Description: In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%. Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021? The question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are >= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) . Related Questions --- [Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/quest...
-# Forecasts: 61
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6298/cv-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . [Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20...
-# Forecasts: 46
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6299/nlo-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2030-01-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . Natural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, pro...
-# Forecasts: 60
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6300/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2027-01-01/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf) . Reinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ...
-# Forecasts: 49
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001) . To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf) . The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.w...
-# Forecasts: 51
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6302/sota-1-shot-on-miniimagenet-at-2024-12-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. The miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.o...
-# Forecasts: 71
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976) . The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? This question resolves as the value of the Federal Re...
-# Forecasts: 60
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6307/median-bay-area-house-prices-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 27%
-Description: During the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) there was an concerted shift to work from home. [Google](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/27/tech/google-work-from-home-extension/index.html), [Facebook](https://variety.com/2020/digital/news/facebook-permanent-work-from-home-1234613548/) and other large tech firms in the Bay Area have signalled that their staff might not need to come back to the office for a long time. There have also been some [high profile](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/13/tech/silicon-valley-moving-to-austin-miami/index.html) tech executives and [companies](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/11/tech/oracle-headquarters-austin-texas-california/index.html) moving out of Silicon Valley. The above factors are expected to reduce pressure on Bay Area housing costs, which have generally been [growing faster than the rest of the country](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=zXYd) . Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by...
-# Forecasts: 27
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6308/change-in-stis-from-2019-to-2020-in-england/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in the UK has [increased over the past 3 years](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/912781/2019_Table_1_New_STI_diagnoses_and_rates_in_England_by_gender.ods) . However, it has been suggested that the Covid-19 pandemic [might affect the epidemiology of STIs](https://sti.bmj.com/content/early/2020/08/12/sextrans-2020-054543) . How will the number of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England change from 2019 to 2020, in percent? The question will resolve according to the annual report published by the UK government. The report and data is most likely going to be found here: [Sexually transmitted infections (STIs): annual data tables](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/sexually-transmitted-infections-stis-annual-data-tables) This question will resolve specifically according to the "% change 2019-2020" for the row "Total new STI diagnoses - total". This tota...
-# Forecasts: 57
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6311/biden-executive-orders-in-first-term/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [Executive Orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) are a means by which the President can govern via their executive powers. They are often seen as a way for the President to circumvent Congress in order to achieve their policy agenda. Some recent Executive Orders by Trump include: --- [Trump's travel ban](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_13780) --- [Revival of the National Space Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Space_Council#Revival) How many [Executive Orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) will President Biden have issued, on a weekly basis, prior to 2025 and while he is president? Here are the last seven presidents for comparison: Carter: 1.53 E.O./week Reagan: 0.91 E.O./week Bush I: 0.80 E.O./week Clinton: 0.87 E.O./week Bush II: 0.70 E.O./week Obama: 0.65 E.O./week Trump: ~1,00 E.0./week (as of 14-Jan-21) How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue? The [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.go...
-# Forecasts: 47
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 27%
-Description: Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) : John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett. Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025? This question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
-# Forecasts: 86
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6316/india-gdp-growth-in-q1-q3-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 70%
-Description: India is a middle-income country [ranking 3rd in GDP and 124th in GDP per capita](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India) (both in PPP-adjusted dollars). India's economy grew uninterruptedly between 1980 and 2020. In 2020, [the COVID-19 pandemic caused it to plunge into a recession for the first time in 40 years](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) . The International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook report currently [estimates this contraction at -10.29% of GDP](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2020/October/weo-report?c=534,&s=NGDP_RPCH,NGDPD,PPPGDP,NGDPDPC,PPPPC,PPPSH,PCPIPCH,&sy=1980&ey=2020&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1) . Will India's GDP grow in the first three quarters of 2021? Resolution will be based on the [Federal Reserve Economic Data series NAEXKP01INQ657S](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=NAEXKP...
-# Forecasts: 35
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will USA's GDP/c growth rate be in 2020-2029?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6320/usas-gdpc-growth-in-2020-2029/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: related question: --- [Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage GDP growth in the US?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/) Economic growth is of central importance to many people and events. Presidential elections seem affected by whether the economy was doing well at the time or not. [GDP growth rates also relate to the geopolitical power races](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)) . With the 2020 elections just about completed, and the economy affected by the Coronavirus pandemic, one may wonder: What will USA's GDP/c growth rate be in 2020-2029? This resolves as USA's average GDP/capita growth according to IMF in 2020-2029 (inflation adjusted). Specifically, it resolves a the geometric mean in percent, calculated as this question will use data reported by the IMF to calculate the average GDP per capita.
-# Forecasts: 39
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 70%
-Description: [With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers. Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform? ---If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively. ---This must be achieved before the next US presidential election in November 2024. ---Platforms must be open to the public.
-# Forecasts: 125
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6323/flights-on-commonpass-health-passport-in-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The World Economic Forum and The Commons Project Foundation are launching [CommonPass](https://commonpass.org/), an app intended as "a secure and verifiable way [for travelers] to document their health status as they travel and cross borders," including COVID-19 vaccination and testing information. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of ["immunoprivilege"](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) ; professor Douglas Kamerow of the British Medical Journal [fears a new class divide,](https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n85) but would be reassured "if some government agencies or WHO were leading this activity"; and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be, but major airline alliances are al...
-# Forecasts: 35
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6325/us-below-100-covid-deaths-per-day/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Related questions: [When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/) [When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/) This US is currently experiencing its third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. While vaccines are currently being rolled out at an increasing rate, the threat of the novel B.117 variant with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects. According to the CDC, there have been no days since late March when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 100 in the US. When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100? This question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the C...
-# Forecasts: 52
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When, if ever, will 17 year olds vote in the US?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6326/17-year-old-suffrage-in-the-us/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In 1971, the US [ratified the 26th Amendment and lowered its voting age from 21 to 18](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-sixth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#:~:text=In%201970%2C%20Senator%20Ted%20Kennedy,%2C%20state%2C%20and%20local%20elections.) . Since then, several proposals to lower the voting age have been put forward. None have passed nationally, but [a number of states and municipalities allow limited forms of voting by people younger than 18](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/) . When, if ever, will people <18 years old vote in national elections in the US? This question resolves positive if at least 50.1% of 17-year-old US citizens are able to vote in federal elections. They must be able to vote in races for at least 2 of 3 offices: US Senate, House of Representatives, or President. Only [general federal elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_v._Mitchell) will be considered, primaries, state and local elections ...
-# Forecasts: 26
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many countries will allow 17 year olds to vote in 2026?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6327/youth-voting-around-the-world-in-2026/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Currently, [14 countries](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/) allow voting by young people with no major restrictions (as of Jan. 16, 2021). Another 14 countries allow some citizens <18 years of age suffrage with major qualifications, usually related to marriage, employment, or type of election. A number of [movements or proposals to allow minors to vote](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/19/us/politics/voting-age.html) are active or have been proposed in dozens of countries as of 2021. How many countries will allow people younger than 18 to vote, with no major conditions, in 2026? Broad enfranchisement, with no major restrictions, of the chosen age group in a country is required for that country to be added to the total. Restrictions that require marriage (as in Hungary and Indonesia) or employment (as in Slovenia and Croatia) or restrict <18 voters to local elections only/European elections only (as in Scotland or Belgium) disqualify a country...
-# Forecasts: 25
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 54%
-Description: Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates. Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? Resolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary. In the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed "FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election.
-# Forecasts: 170
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 84%
-Description: [CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics: The CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states. -- [CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) CDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany) . CDU and CSU hold an agree...
-# Forecasts: 62
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: On December 8th 2020, Starship SN8 was the first SpaceX Starship prototype to fly to a height of at least 1 km (12.5 km to be specific). SpaceX intends to one day use Starship to bring humans to Mars. When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be? This question resolves to the time of the next Starship flight after the December SN8 flight. The criteria for "flight" are the same as in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4622/how-many-more-starship-prototypes-will-be-destroyed-before-one-flies/), notably, the Starship must reach a height of at least 1 km intact for resolution, and what counts as a Starship is outlined in [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/) . This question has [a sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/), asking about the 3rd Starship flight.
-# Forecasts: 242
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: On December 8th 2020, Starship SN8 was the first SpaceX Starship prototype to fly to a height of at least 1 km (12.5 km to be specific). SpaceX intends to one day use Starship to bring humans to Mars. When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be? This question resolves to the time of the third Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. The criteria for "flight" are the same as in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4622/how-many-more-starship-prototypes-will-be-destroyed-before-one-flies/), notably, the Starship must reach a height of at least 1 km intact for resolution, and what counts as a Starship is outlined in [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/) . This question has [a sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339), asking about the 2nd Starship flight.
-# Forecasts: 103
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km. When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit? This question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve A Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)): ---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative ---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) ---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at...
-# Forecasts: 40
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&biw=1440&bih=741&tbm=nws&ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&search=minimum%20wage&categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&src=typed_query) . The current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79. What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025? On 1 January 2025, this URL will be consulted: [https://www.taco...
-# Forecasts: 108
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6348/ea-global-london-2021-rescheduled/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 40%
-Description: [Effective Altruism Global](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_Altruism_Global), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2021 is currently scheduled](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/london2021/) for 29-31 October 2021 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK. It was previously scheduled for 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020, but was postponed due to COVID (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4318/will-ea-global-london-2020-be-cancelled-or-rescheduled-due-to-covid-19/)). It was then scheduled for 30 April 2021 to 2 May 2021, but was postponed again (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4821/will-ea-global-london-2021-be-cancelled-rescheduled-or-moved-online/)). Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again? The question resolves negatively if the EA Global London 2021 takes place in the originally scheduled p...
-# Forecasts: 26
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6352/insurrection-act-invoked-before-2025/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 20%
-Description: [The Insurrection Act of 1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is a United States federal law that empowers the U.S. president to call into service the U.S. Armed Forces and the National Guard under the following circumstances: --- when requested by a state's legislature, or governor if the legislature cannot be convened, to address an insurrection against that state ([§ 251](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/251)), --- to address an insurrection, in any state, which makes it impracticable to enforce the law ([§ 252](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/252)), --- or to address an insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination or conspiracy, in any state, which results in the deprivation of constitutionally secured rights, and where the state is unable, fails, or refuses to protect said rights ([§ 253](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/253)). The Act was first used by 1808 by Thomas Jefferson. It has been used at least [23 more ...
-# Forecasts: 39
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6356/aes-256-broken-by-2040/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 10%
-Description: AES-256 is a widely-implemented specification for a symmetric block cipher algorithm for encrypting digital data. It is the strongest version of the Rijndael algorithm underlying the AES specification with 14 rounds of transformation and a 256 bit key size. The key size of 256 bits appears to render a brute-force search of the keyspace infeasible on foreseeable classical and quantum computers--the latter still must search an effective keyspace of 128 bits (see Grover's algorithm). The best publicly known attack on AES-256 requires the search of a keyspace slightly greater than 254 bits, which is infeasible. This keyspace is so large that a brute force search would be energy-constrained on a solar-system scale even with unlimited computing power at the physical limits of efficiency. There is some consideration that mathematical and / or cryptoanalytic advances may enable new attacks on AES-256 that could make key recovery computationally feasible. Public, and presumably private, crypta...
-# Forecasts: 57
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6362/usa-drop-out-of-world-top-20-gdpc/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [The wealth of nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wealth_of_Nations) is a topic going back 100s of years. Some countries are clearly many times richer than others. But why? And is it predictable who comes out ahead and who falls from the pedestal? There are significant changes over time, even in the period since 1900. [Argentina was among the top 10 wealthiest countries in 1913](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina), but today lingers around [position 50-60 among countries with at least 1M population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita) . The recent political crisis of the USA's open the question of whether USA's position among the most wealthy countries will continue. USA is currently the 6th wealthiest country in GDP per capita (PPP). When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20? ---Countries with 1M population size only. ---Primary source of data on GDP per capita, PPP from IMF's collection. On...
-# Forecasts: 41
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true, if it is proved by 2100?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 90%
-Description: previous Metaculus questions: --- [Will a Millenium Prize problem be solved by 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/) --- [When will the next Millenium Prize problem be solved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/) The [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) all have real part equal to . The Riemann zeta function also has zeroes at the strictly negative even integers , which are by definition its trivial zeroes. The hypothesis would therefore be correct if all zeroes of the Riemann zeta function other than these trivial zeroes had real part equal to . The conjecture is significant because it implies the tightest possible error bounds on a wide range of est...
-# Forecasts: 46
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6367/university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 75%
-Description: In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. The office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. The UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either "in-person", "flexible", or "hybrid" with the large majority being listed as "remote". Will UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021? This question resolved positive...
-# Forecasts: 67
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6371/uk-festival-shambala-to-take-place-aug-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 45%
-Description: On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic. This has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, ["Will any festivals happen this summer?"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone: In the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to. But if those dreams involve drinking warm cider in a muddy field and singing your heart out with thousands of others, it's suddenly looking a bit bleak again. [Shambala](https://www.shambalafestival.org/) is a four-day festival that takes place at a country estate in England. It has existed for 20 years. Whereas Glastonbury is at the beginning of the festival season ...
-# Forecasts: 33
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6372/israeli-election-march-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 78%
-Description: An [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israeli_legislative_election) will take place in Israel this March. The Likud party [won the previous election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Israeli_legislative_election) and is [leading in polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Israeli_legislative_election) . This question will resolve positively if Likud win more Knesset seats than any other party. Unlike [a related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-marchw-2021-election/) this does not consider post-election coalition negotiations. In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats? This will resolve negatively if Likud ties with another party for number of seats. It will resolve ambiguously if no election takes place in March 2021
-# Forecasts: 67
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/date-song-first-streamed-4b-times-on-spotify/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify) : Spotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists. Spotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers. As of...
-# Forecasts: 19
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: [Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify) : Spotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists. Spotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers. As of...
-# Forecasts: 24
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will The Economist rank China as a democracy in the Democracy Index?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6377/china-becomes-a-democracy/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Throughout its existence, the People’s Republic of China has consistently been an undemocratic country. The Democracy Index, a yearly report that rates the state of democracy in 167 countries on a scale from 0-10 has rated China as “authoritarian” in all of its reports (with the most recent rating being a 2.26/10). When will China become a democracy? This question will resolve when the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) (published by the Economist Intelligence Unit) rates China as a 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) for at least one year’s report. The Resolution date will be the date the report is published. This question will resolve ambiguously if the People’s Republic of China, in its current form, ceases to exist before it is rated a democracy by the Democracy Index, or if The Economist's Democracy Index is no longer published.
-# Forecasts: 10
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 20%
-Description: previous Metaculus questions: --- [Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/) The [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents. The scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level. Compared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the ...
-# Forecasts: 30
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6379/will-gamestop-gme-reach-42069-by-eoy/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 99%
-Description: As of January 2021, the stock price of GameStop (GME) is seeing the sharpest rise in its history. The Reddit user [/u/deepfuckingvalue](https://www.reddit.com/user/DeepFuckingValue/) active on [r/wallstreetbets](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/) seems to have predicted the rise of this stock as early as 2 years ago. Now r/wallstreetbets is very bullish on GME and they predict a [$420.69 price](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l3mpmw/disgraceful_false_media_narrative_about_gme/) . r/wallstreetbets, and the GME rise in general, has gotten a lot of media attention. This atypical situation, in which r/wallstreetbets seems to play a sort of role (it's still unclear how influential they really are) has also happened recently with the relatively sudden rise of other stocks such as TSLA, PLTR, and NIO. Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021? The question will resolve positively if the GME stock price will reach $4...
-# Forecasts: 530
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 56.99999999999999%
-Description: The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA. On 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if "Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreemen...
-# Forecasts: 46
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 10%
-Description: The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. On [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10. The most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015. Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022? This question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022. Because there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and...
-# Forecasts: 45
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: [short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6393/buccaneers-win-super-bowl-lv/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 43%
-Description: [Super Bowl LV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LV) is the 55th Super Bowl that decides the league champion for the 2020 NFL season. Defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs will play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on 7 February 2021 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. Metaculus has predicted in a variety of domains but can Metaculus do well at sports? The Buccaneers will be the first team to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium and their quarterback, Tom Brady, will play in a record 10th Super Bowl - the most for any quarterback. Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV? This question resolves positive if the Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV, per credible media reporting.
-# Forecasts: 133
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6396/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ======= Private equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded. As with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations. Total annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were: ---2008: $312 ---2009: $138 ---2010: $284 ---2011: $336 ---2012: $375 ---2013: $434 ---2014 $544 ---2015 $512 ---2016 $610 ...
-# Forecasts: 19
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6398/initial-jobless-claims-in-march-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ======= [Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy. Greatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. January 14th saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears...
-# Forecasts: 27
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6399/initial-jobless-claims-in-april-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ======= [Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy. Greatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. January 14th saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears...
-# Forecasts: 21
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ======= [Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) . Patterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future. Total retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, fo...
-# Forecasts: 20
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ======= [Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) . Patterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future. Total retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, fo...
-# Forecasts: 17
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6402/industrial-production-index-march-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ======= The Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted. The industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market. Anothe...
-# Forecasts: 23
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ======= The Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted. The industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market. Anothe...
-# Forecasts: 22
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6404/cpi-u--change-for-march-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ======= The CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/) . Understanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds. Cons...
-# Forecasts: 15
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ======= The CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/) . Understanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds. Cons...
-# Forecasts: 16
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ======= The [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad. Just like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) . When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices. [Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufactur...
-# Forecasts: 20
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ======= The [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad. Just like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) . When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices. [Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufactur...
-# Forecasts: 21
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6408/march-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ======= [Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees. It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. You can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta...
-# Forecasts: 19
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6409/april-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context ======= [Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees. It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. You can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta...
-# Forecasts: 16
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6411/weride-autonomous-vehicle-testing-in-ca/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Background ========== Closing their [$310M Series B round](https://www.weride.ai/en/series-B-update-en/) on January 13th, [WeRide.ai](http://WeRide.ai) is gearing up to commercialize their self-driving technology for widespread use. WeRide made its [pilot appearance](https://cn.weride.ai/robotaxi-service/) in Guangzhou, China in November 2020, launching their Robo-Taxis for customer use over 144.65 km of area in the city. These cars are fully autonomous, in that they can successfully drive paying customers using AI technology without the presence of any safety staff on board in case of an accident. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) through their AV Test Initiative, California is one of the largest [hotspots of activity](https://www.nhtsa.gov/automated-vehicles-safety/av-test-initiative-tracking-tool) for autonomous vehicle testing in the United States. There are currently [over 80 companies](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a32872492/dot-standar...
-# Forecasts: 16
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the final asking price of Roblox stock at the end of its first trading day?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6413/roblox-rblx-first-trading-day-stock-price/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Background ========== Founded in 2004 by David Baszucki and Erik Cassel and released to the public in 2006, Roblox is expected to [enter the NYSE (New York Stock Exchange)](https://marketrealist.com/p/roblox-direct-listing-date/) sometime this February 2021. Market Realist estimates that with private funding for a direct listing at $45 dollars a share, the company could reach a valuation of almost $30 billion dollars. [Roblox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roblox), an online gaming and game creation system platform, allows users to both develop and program their own games as well as play games created by other users. With a collected revenue of [$589 million in the first nine months of 2020](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/24/should-you-invest-in-the-roblox-ipo/#:~:text=The%20stock%20hit%20the%20market,shares%20of%20and%20recommends%20Netflix.) and a 68% increase in revenue over the same period from 2019, Roblox is experiencing massive growth. During this time, order bookings,...
-# Forecasts: 42
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6415/date-of-australian-border-reopening/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Since March 2020, in order to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia [has closed its borders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Australia#Travel_restrictions) to international arrivals other than citizens and permanent residents and those granted individual exemptions. Furthermore, those resident in Australia may not leave without being granted an exemption. Finally, those who are permitted to enter are required to enter supervised quarantine for 14 days in hotels upon arrival. Exceptions to this include foreign diplomats (who are expected to self-quarantine), some travellers who have made alternate quarantine arrangements to the satisfaction of Australian authorities, and arrivals from New Zealand, who have been exempt from quarantine since October 2020. When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel? This question will resolve on the first day that all of the following criteria are met: 1-- Australia no longer requires non-citizens/residents fr...
-# Forecasts: 26
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6419/marjorie-taylor-greene-expelled/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 13%
-Description: [Marjorie Taylor Greene](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene) is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021. Greene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including [Pizzagate](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/politics/kfile-marjorie-greene-spread-conspiracies/index.html), [QAnon](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/us/politics/qanon-candidates-marjorie-taylor-greene.html), [false flag shootings](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/22/marjorie-taylor-greene-parkland-sandyhook/) as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, [9/11 conspiracy theories](https://www.mediamatters.org/false-flag-conspiracy-theory/facebook-2018-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-endorsed-conspiracy-theories), and ["Frazzledrip"](https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1354176025274404864...
-# Forecasts: 170
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6421/substack-to-become-unicorn/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 43%
-Description: Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing quickly. They raised 120k from YC, $2M in a seed round, and $15.3M in a Series A, per [Crunchbase](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/substack/company_financials) . Will substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024? This resolves positively if credible reports say that Substack has raised funds at a valuation exceeding $1 billion prior to the resolution date.
-# Forecasts: 26
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will anyone make over $1M/year as a solo Substack author before 2024?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6422/substack-millionaire-before-2024/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 97%
-Description: Substack is a new publishing company that has been growing rapidly and attracting high profile authors. One organization, The Dispatch, [has passed 1M in annual revenue](https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/17/the-dispatch-substack-1-million-revenue) . However, The Dispatch has multiple authors. Will anyone make over $1M/year as a solo Substack author before 2024 This resolves positively if credible reports say that an individual author is earning over $1M/year from Substack subscribers. They are allowed to have editors and still count as a solo author.
-# Forecasts: 89
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6425/the-future-of-wallstreetbets/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 13%
-Description: The well-known subreddit /r/wallstreetbets has attracted significant media attention in the past week because of the ongoing short squeeze of GameStop (GME), which has caused the stock price to skyrocket. As a result, multiple hedge funds who were shorting GME incurred significant losses. On Jan 27th 2020, the official wallstreetbets Discord server was banned, and the subreddit was made private for 56 minutes, leading to speculation that the subreddit could be banned. [In a heavily upvoted post, one user described the ongoing situation as "an existential threat to our community".](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l6izw5/stay_calm_a_quick_explanation_about_why_the_sub/) [CBS: How Reddit posters made millions as Wall Street lost billions on GameStop's wild stock ride](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/wallstreetbets-reddit-gamestop/) [Vox: The GameStop stock frenzy, explained](https://www.vox.com/the-goods/22249458/gamestop-stock-wallstreetbets-reddit-citron) [Ars Technica:...
-# Forecasts: 247
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6439/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2021-06-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round) . Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) ...
-# Forecasts: 40
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6440/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2022-01-14/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/) . You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing) . Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box ...
-# Forecasts: 41
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 69%
-Description: [Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government) ; its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years. There is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however: --- [The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. ---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held "within one year before the places are to b...
-# Forecasts: 15
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 20%
-Description: President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html) ; the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html) . Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))? Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022? The question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party.
-# Forecasts: 12
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As January 31st, an average of 1.35 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average. What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States? This question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on March 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on March 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understo...
-# Forecasts: 41
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6466/new-us-covid-deaths-21-27-february/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The number of new deaths due to COVID-19 is one factor that contributes to the burden of a disease. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm) that seasonal influenza between 10/2019 and 04/2020 caused 24,000 to 62,000 deaths in total. As of 1 February 2021 there are 433,751 cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 reported in the US. [The COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) ensemble median prediction made on 2021-02-01 of the number of new incident deaths for the week beginning 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 is 16,941. Changes in the disease burden indicate to public health officials whether past interventions have effectively reduced the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of COVID-19. A plot of the current number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/blob/main/da...
-# Forecasts: 11
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the total number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6468/new-us-covid-hospital-admissions-21-27-feb/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Changes in the number of hospitalizations due to COVID-19 is caused, in part, by how the healthcare system manages infections, differences in populations susceptible to the virus, and adjustments to how the infectious disease is treated. As of 2021-02-01 there are 93,536 people who are currently hospitalized due to COVID-19. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2019-2020.html) that seasonal influenza in the US during the 2019-2020 season was responsible for 38 million illnesses, 18 million medical visits, 405,000 hospitalizations, and 22,000 deaths. Public health officials [may adjust mitigation efforts and/or adjust policies](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/209520) in response to a predicted increase or decrease in expected number of hospitalizations. A plot of the current number of new incident adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 over time can be found [here](https://github.com/compu...
-# Forecasts: 12
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the total number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6469/new-us-covid-cases-21-27-february/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The number of new positive SARS-CoV-2 cases can indicate the degree to which the virus is transmitted in a population. If public health officials observe an increase in the number of new cases they may ask, at a federal or state level, to increase test production to measure the degree to which the virus has spread and increase restrictions to prevent spread of the infectious agent. The [US Outpatient Influenza-like illness Surveillance network (ILINet)](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) has reported on 2021-02-01 that 1.3% of patient visits have influenza-like illness compared to a national baseline of 2.6%. The number of new COVID-19 cases in the US as reported by the JHU CSSE group on 2021-02-01 was 119,747. A plot of the current number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/raw/main/data/JHUCasesData/numberOfN...
-# Forecasts: 10
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-02-28?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Two COVID-19 vaccines — produced by [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine) and [Moderna](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine) — have been approved by the FDA and are currently being distributed in the U.S. The vaccine produced by Pfizer-BioNTech has a reported efficacy of [95%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577) and the vaccine produced by Moderna has a reported efficacy of [94%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2035389) . As of 2021-02-03, [27,154,956 people](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, and more than 4M doses per week of the [Pfizer](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/COVID-19-Vaccine-Distribution-Allocations-by-Juris/saz5-9hgg) and [Moderna](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/COVID-19-Vaccine-Dist...
-# Forecasts: 17
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-01 and 2021-03-07 (inclusive)?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6473/-sn501-in-us-for-week-of-1-march/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In the past two months, three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new) : B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. B.1.351 was first detected in South Africa in October 2020 and seems to have an ability to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) and [reduce the efficacy](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data) of vaccines in development. P.1 was first detected in Brazil in January 2020 and, like B.1.351, seems like it is able to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited ...
-# Forecasts: 12
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 2021–03-07?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6474/-variants-monitored-by-cdc-on-7-march/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In the past two months, three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new) : B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. B.1.351 was first detected in South Africa in October 2020 and seems to have an ability to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) and [reduce the efficacy](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data) of vaccines in development. P.1 was first detected in Brazil in January 2020 and, like B.1.351, seems like it is able to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited ...
-# Forecasts: 10
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive)?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6477/-sn501-in-us-for-week-of-29-march/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In the past two months, three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new) : B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. B.1.351 was first detected in South Africa in October 2020 and seems to have an ability to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) and [reduce the efficacy](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data) of vaccines in development. P.1 was first detected in Brazil in January 2020 and, like B.1.351, seems like it is able to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited ...
-# Forecasts: 23
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?
-URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/
-Platform: Metaculus
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2) . On 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times...
-# Forecasts: 23
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Which of these 5 European leaders will leave office next?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5717/Which-of-these-5-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Following the launch of this market, the first among the officials named in the contracts in this market to cease to formally hold the office listed next to his or her name shall be the individual named in the contract. No additional contracts may be added to this market following its launch. In the event that the time and date upon which two or more of the listed individuals cease to formally hold their respective offices is identical or so similar as to be indistinguishable, as determined at PredictIt's sole discretion, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes, while all other contracts will resolve as No. At 11:59:59 p.m. (ET) 30 calendar days following an officially announced effective date of at least one listed individual's departure from such office, if this market is not already resolved due to insufficient clarity regarding the relative timing of the departure of two or more such individuals,...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Trump pardon himself in his first term?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6453/Will-Trump-pardon-himself-in-his-first-term
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 1%
-Description: Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 01/08/2021. During his first term, President Donald Trump shall grant a pardon to himself for one or more criminal offences, charges or convictions. Such pardon will be considered to have been granted only if Mr. Trump himself appears on the official list of presidential pardons granted by President Trump, maintained by the U.S. Department of Justice's Office of the Pardon Attorney (available upon launch of this market at https://www.justice.gov/pardon/clemencyrecipients) by 11:59 pm on February 15, 2021 (the “End Date”). A self-pardon for Mr. Trump that is announced but does not appear on such official list by the End Date shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve Yes. Subsequent removal, revocation or legal challenge to such a pardon grant that appears on the official list at any time before the End Date shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determ...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Which party will win the 2020 House race in New York's 22nd District?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6861/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-New-York's-22nd-District
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 01/21/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from New York's 22nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Should the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No. Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. Should the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well p...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in P...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party. For purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered. Determination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or oth...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many U.S. House delegations will Republicans win in the 2020 election?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6925/How-many-US-House-delegations-will-Republicans-win-in-the-2020-election
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of U.S. House state delegations controlled by the Republican Party as a result of the 2020 general election. The Republican Party shall be considered to control any state delegation in which a majority of representatives have been elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable party preference as Republican on the day of the election. Should such preference be unidentifiable, a candidate shall be considered a Republican only if prior to the election he or she has most recently indicated an intention to caucus with Republicans. Determination of a House seat won shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2020 U.S. House election results for such state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announ...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of State on Feb. 15?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6944/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-State-on-Feb-15
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of State subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of State be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 02/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 9%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, at any point during the 2021 calendar year, there are more than nine current members of the United States Supreme Court. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 5:00 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Defense on Mar. 1?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6949/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Defense-on-Mar-1
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Defense subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Defense be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Labor on Mar. 1?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6951/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Labor-on-Mar-1
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Labor subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Labor be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed Attorney General on Mar. 1?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6952/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Attorney-General-on-Mar-1
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Attorney General subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Attorney General be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 24%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Harris and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Ms. Harris' previous presidential campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2022 11...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed Treasury Secretary on Mar. 1?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6957/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Treasury-Secretary-on-Mar-1
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of the Treasury subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of the Treasury be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed HUD Secretary on Mar. 1?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6958/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HUD-Secretary-on-Mar-1
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed HHS Secretary on Mar. 1?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6965/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HHS-Secretary-on-Mar-1
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Health and Human Services be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed Commerce Secretary on Mar. 1?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6966/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Commerce-Secretary-on-Mar-1
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Commerce subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Commerce be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed Homeland Security Secretary on Mar. 1?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6971/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Homeland-Security-Secretary-on-Mar-1
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Homeland Security be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed Energy Secretary on Mar. 1?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6972/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Energy-Secretary-on-Mar-1
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Energy subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Energy be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 22%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Pence and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Pence's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed Interior Secretary on Mar. 1?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6976/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Interior-Secretary-on-Mar-1
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of the Interior subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of the Interior be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed CIA Director on Mar. 1?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6977/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-CIA-Director-on-Mar-1
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Education on Mar. 1?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6978/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Education-on-Mar-1
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Education subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Education be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed Transportation Secretary on Mar. 1?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6979/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Transportation-Secretary-on-Mar-1
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Transportation subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Transportation be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed Agriculture Secretary on Mar. 1?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6980/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Agriculture-Secretary-on-Mar-1
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Agriculture subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Agriculture be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed EPA Administrator on Mar. 1?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6981/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-EPA-Administrator-on-Mar-1
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 51%
-Description: Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/19/2020. This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, ...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed Veterans Affairs Secretary on Mar. 1?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6987/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Veterans-Affairs-Secretary-on-Mar-1
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Veterans Affairs subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Veterans Affairs be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed Director of National Intelligence on Mar. 1?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6989/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Director-of-National-Intelligence-on-Mar-1
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of National Intelligence subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of National Intelligence be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Amy Klobuchar be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6990/Will-Amy-Klobuchar-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 1%
-Description: This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Amy Klobuchar has been confirmed by the U.S. Senate to serve in a Cabinet position before the End Date listed below. For the purpose of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be defined as the Attorney General; the Secretaries of Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury, and Veterans Affairs; United States Trade Representative; and the heads of the Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management and Budget, Central Intelligence Agency, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and Small Business Administration. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Elizabeth Warren be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6991/Will-Elizabeth-Warren-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 1%
-Description: This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Elizabeth Warren has been confirmed by the U.S. Senate to serve in a Cabinet position before the End Date listed below. For the purpose of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be defined as the Attorney General; the Secretaries of Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury, and Veterans Affairs; United States Trade Representative; and the heads of the Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management and Budget, Central Intelligence Agency, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and Small Business Administration. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed OMB Director on Mar. 1?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6992/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director-on-Mar-1
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of the Office of Management and Budget subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of the Office of Management and Budget be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed U.S. Trade Representative on Mar. 1?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6993/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-US-Trade-Representative-on-Mar-1
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as United States Trade Representative subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of United States Trade Representative be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 27%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Trump and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, ame...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. For purposes of this market, only one candidate can represent a party listed in a contract. A candidate running as an independent would not be considered to represent the Republican party or Democratic party, even if that candidate otherwise identifies as a member of one of those parties. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 97%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Yang is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2021 Democratic primary election for mayor of New York City. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Yang running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s so...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Israel hold national elections for Knesset in 2021?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7007/Will-Israel-hold-national-elections-for-Knesset-in-2021
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 99%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Israel holds national elections for members of the Knesset during the 2021 calendar year. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 42%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 20%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 26%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule ...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The winner of the 2022 North Carolina general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 12%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump Jr. is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Pennsylvania. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at Predi...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 37%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at Predi...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 16?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7020/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-USAID-Administrator-on-Mar-16
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 12/31/2020. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of USAID Administrator be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET) Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 12/31/2020 9:01 AM (ET) Note: A typographical error in the title was corrected to Mar. 16, the End Date set forth in the Rules
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 25%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Ivanka Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Florida. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s so...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and de...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 71%
-Description: This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister of Israel upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"). Should that Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 06/30/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats in the Knesset won by the Likud Party in Israel's next legislative election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 72%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that proponents of the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom shall, by March 17, 2021, file recall petitions sufficient to trigger a recall election. Review of any such timely filed petitions for sufficiency to trigger such recall election need not be complete by March 17, 2021. Any extension of time that may be granted to recall efforts currently underway shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view a...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"). Should that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the Senate convict Donald Trump in Biden's first 100 days?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7050/Will-the-Senate-convict-Donald-Trump-in-Biden's-first-100-days
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 7%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, after noon (ET) January 20, 2021 but before the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall, by a vote of at least two-thirds of the Members present, convict Donald J. Trump on one or more articles of impeachment. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 91%
-Description: This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Lisa Murkowski publicly identifies herself as a member of the Republican Party as of the End Date listed below. Senator Murkowski's continued participation or membership in the Senate Republican Conference as of the End Date shall not be sufficient by itself to cause this market to resolve to Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by Apr. 29?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7054/How-many-Senators-will-vote-to-convict-Donald-Trump-on-incitement-by-Apr-29
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of members of the U.S. Senate casting votes to convict Donald J. Trump on the charge of incitement of insurrection, before the End Date listed below. Should no such vote conclude before the End Date, or should such vote result in acquittal of Mr. Trump via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "50 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should such vote result in the conviction of Mr. Trump via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "67 or more" shall resolve to Yes. This market shall close upon the first such Senate vote. Any subsequent such Senate vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The Vice President, as President of the Senate, is not a Senator for purposes of this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or ...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Mitch McConnell vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7055/Will-Mitch-McConnell-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 17%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and ...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Mitt Romney vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7056/Will-Mitt-Romney-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 93%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Mitt Romney (R-UT) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shal...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Susan Collins vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7058/Will-Susan-Collins-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 69%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and sh...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will John Thune vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7059/Will-John-Thune-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 9%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator John Thune (R-SD) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Thom Tillis vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7066/Will-Thom-Tillis-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 5%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shal...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Joe Manchin vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7067/Will-Joe-Manchin-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 90%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shal...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Richard Burr vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7070/Will-Richard-Burr-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 7%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Richard Burr (R-NC) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and sha...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Rob Portman vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7071/Will-Rob-Portman-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 22%
-Description: Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 01/25/2021. This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 10%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) before the End Date listed below. A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many Senators vote to confirm Gina Raimondo as Commerce Secretary?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7073/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Gina-Raimondo-as-Commerce-Secretary
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Gina Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that ...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the Senate censure Josh Hawley before May 1?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7074/Will-the-Senate-censure-Josh-Hawley-before-May-1
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 13%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) before the End Date listed below. A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 7%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $15 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Lisa Murkowski vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7077/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 85%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and s...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Italy hold national elections before June 1?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7078/Will-Italy-hold-national-elections-before-June-1
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 16%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that ltaly holds national legislative elections before the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Ben Sasse vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7080/Will-Ben-Sasse-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 82%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Ben Sasse (R-NE) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall ...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many Senators vote to confirm Jennifer Granholm as Energy Secretary?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7081/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Jennifer-Granholm-as-Energy-Secretary
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Jennifer Granholm to the position of Secretary of Energy, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Granholm to the position of Secretary of Energy commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that ...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 80%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins the 2022 Arkansas Republican gubernatorial primary election. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and d...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 11%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the District of Columbia is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present District of Columbia from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Pat Toomey vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7084/Will-Pat-Toomey-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 68%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The winner of the 2022 Ohio general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many Senators vote to confirm Marcia Fudge as HUD Secretary?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7086/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Marcia-Fudge-as-HUD-Secretary
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Rep. Marcia Fudge (D-OH) to the position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Rep. Fudge to the position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 6%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present commonwealth from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Chuck Grassley vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7089/Will-Chuck-Grassley-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 7%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and s...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many Senators vote to confirm L. Thomas-Greenfield as UN Ambassador by 3/15?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7090/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-L-Thomas-Greenfield-as-UN-Ambassador-by-3-15
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Linda Thomas-Greenfield to the position of Ambassador to the United Nations, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Thomas-Greenfield to the position of Ambassador to the United Nations commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejec...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many Biden Cabinet members will be confirmed by Mar. 1?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7091/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-be-confirmed-by-Mar-1
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S. Cabinet who have been confirmed by the Senate to their respective positions by the End Date listed below. For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions – The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs -- And the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative -- And the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management and Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science and Technology Policy and Small Business Administration. Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving ...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by September 1?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7092/Will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-$950-per-hour-or-higher-by-September-1
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 31%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 09/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many Senators vote to confirm Tom Vilsack as Agriculture Sec. by 3/31?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7093/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Tom-Vilsack-as-Agriculture-Sec-by-3-31
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Tom Vilsack to the position of Secretary of Agriculture, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Vilsack to the position of Secretary of Agriculture commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure th...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the Senate subpoena any witnesses in trial of President Trump by Feb. 28?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7094/Will-the-Senate-subpoena-any-witnesses-in-trial-of-President-Trump-by-Feb-28
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 23%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes if, in the trial of Donald J. Trump, the Senate shall vote, by the End Date listed below, to approve, issue, authorize or enforce a subpoena of any specific witness or witnesses. A vote to hear testimony from a witness who appears voluntarily without being subpoenaed will not cause this market to resolve Yes. A vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences during the prescribed period of time, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after expiration. The results of the vote need not be available upon expiration. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 02/28/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Liz Cheney be House Republican Conference Chair on March 1?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7095/Will-Liz-Cheney-be-House-Republican-Conference-Chair-on-March-1
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 99%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) serves in the position of House Republican Conference Chair upon the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Marjorie Taylor Greene sit on the House Education Committee on March 1?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7096/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-sit-on-the-House-Education-Committee-on-March-1
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 1%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is a member of, or is assigned to, the House Committee on Education and Labor upon the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many Senators vote to confirm Denis McDonough as VA Secretary by 3/31?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7097/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Denis-McDonough-as-VA-Secretary-by-3-31
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Denis McDonough to the position of Secretary of Veterans Affairs, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. McDonough to the position of Secretary of Veterans Affairs commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee vi...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Brad Raffensperger testify publicly in Trump's Senate trial by Feb. 28?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7098/Will-Brad-Raffensperger-testify-publicly-in-Trump's-Senate-trial-by-Feb-28
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 18%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Brad Raffensperger testifies publicly, under subpoena or otherwise, by the End Date listed below, before the Senate in any trial on any article of impeachment of former President Donald Trump. Live testimony given remotely shall be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes. Videotaped testimony shown to the Senate shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes. Testimony before a Congressional committee or subcommittee shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes. Should Mr. Raffensperger appear at any such trial, whether in person or remotely, but answer no substantive questions asked by any questioner, this market shall resolve as No, whether or not Mr. Raffensperger submits a sworn statement or reads all or part of such statement aloud during the hearing or trial. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 02...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the House censure or reprimand Marjorie Taylor Greene before April 1?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7099/Will-the-House-censure-or-reprimand-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-before-April-1
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 12%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. House of Representatives votes to censure or reprimand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) before the End Date listed below. A vote shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Representative has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the Senate vote on whether to convict Donald Trump?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7100/When-will-the-Senate-vote-on-whether-to-convict-Donald-Trump
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the date upon which the Senate votes on whether to convict former President Donald J. Trump in his Senate impeachment trial. A vote shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the End Date. Should no such vote commence before the End Date, whether because no such trial has begun, remains ongoing upon that date, or has been abandoned without a vote on conviction, the contract identifying the range "February 20 or later" shall resolve to Yes. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sol...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many Senators vote to confirm Miguel Cardona as Education Secretary by 3/31?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7101/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Miguel-Cardona-as-Education-Secretary-by-3-31
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Miguel Cardona to the position of Secretary of Education, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Cardona to the position of Secretary of Education commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure th...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Liz Cheney win the 2022 House GOP nomination in WY-AL?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7103/Will-Liz-Cheney-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-WY-AL
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 56%
-Description: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from Wyoming's At-Large district. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 5th District?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7104/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Louisiana's-5th-District
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 5th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determ...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 2nd District?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7105/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Louisiana's-2nd-District
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determ...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7106/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office he holds upon launch of this market on February 4, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are repla...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule sh...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many Senators vote to confirm Michael Regan as EPA Administrator by 3/31?
-URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7108/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Michael-Regan-as-EPA-Administrator-by-3-31
-Platform: PredictIt
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Michael Regan to the position of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Regan to the position of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency commence before the End Date; or should such a vote ...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Tesla announce a Bitcoin purchase before March 1, 2021?
-URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-tesla-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-march-1-2021
-Platform: PolyMarket
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 9.35%
-Description: This is a market on if Tesla ($TSLA) will announce either their intention to purchase Bitcoin ($BTC) off their balance sheet, the completion of such a purchase, or in any other way, ownership of BTC on their balance sheet. This announcement may come from either Tesla's official channels, or Elon Musk's official channels. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla satisfies any of the aforementioned resolution conditions before the resolution date, March 1, 2021, 12:00am EST. If, for any reason the aforementioned market conditions are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
-# Forecasts: 1370
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be above 10% on March 15, 2021?
-URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-above-10-on-march-15-2021
-Platform: PolyMarket
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 12.05%
-Description: This is a market on if the DeFi Dominance metric, according to CoinGecko, will be above 10% on March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if DeFi Dominance is listed as being greater than or equal 10.0% on the resolution date. The market will resolve to “No“ if DeFi dominance is less than 10.0% at that time of resolution. The resolution source for this market will be the metric currently listed on [https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi](https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi) as “Defi Dominance (vs. Global)“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution date for this market will be March 15, 2021.
-# Forecasts: 155
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Who will the world's richest person be on February 27, 2021?
-URL: https://polymarket.com/market/who-will-the-world-s-richest-person-be-on-february-27-2021
-Platform: PolyMarket
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This is a market on who will be the world's richest person on February 27, 2021, 12PM EST, according to Forbes' billionaires list. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, current CEO of Amazon, Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla, and “Other“, representing anyone else being the top of the Forbes list. This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has the world's highest net worth in terms of USD on the resolution date. The market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he is the world's highest net worth individual in terms of USD on the resolution date. If for any reason, any individual other than Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk is listed as the highest net worth individual in the world on the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Other”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will...
-# Forecasts: 833
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by March 1?
-URL: https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-senators-will-vote-to-convict-donald-trump-on-incitement-by-march-1
-Platform: PolyMarket
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This is a market on the number of U.S. Senators who will vote to convict Donald J. Trump on the charge of incitement of insurrection prior to March 1, 2021. If no such vote takes place prior to the resolution date, or if Trump is acquitted via voice vote or another procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, “52 or fewer" will resolve to “Yes". Should such a vote result in the conviction of Trump via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, “62 or more" will resolve to “Yes". The Vice President, as President of the Senate, is not a Senator for purposes of this market. The outcome corresponding to the number of U.S. Senators who vote to convict Trump on the charge of incitement will resolve to “Yes". The resolution source for this market will be the guilty vote count on the corresponding legislative page of https://www.senate.gov/legislative. Clarifying note: This market will resolve upon the first such Senate vo...
-# Forecasts: 552
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in The US by April 1, 2021?
-URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021
-Platform: PolyMarket
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 62.36%
-Description: This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to "Yes" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to "No" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
-# Forecasts: 1251
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will YFI total supply be greater than 30,000 by March 15th?
-URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-yfi-total-supply-be-greater-than-30-000-by-march-15th
-Platform: PolyMarket
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 99.54%
-Description: This is a market on if the total supply of $YFI, the native token of yearn.finance, will be greater than 30,000 by March 15th, 2021, 4pm EST. Currently there is much debate around adding inflation to the current fixed supply of 30,000 YFI tokens, as a means of creating further incentive for team members and core devs to be committed to the project. If this happens, and the total supply of YFI exceeds 30,000 before the resolution date, the market will resolve to "Yes". If the total supply of YFI remains 30,000 on the resolution date, even if a governance proposal set to change that has been approved, the market will resolve to "No". If the token gets redeployed and a migration happens, where there is social consensus on a new YFI token that governs yearn.finance, that will be treated as YFI. The main resolution sources will be Coingecko (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/yearn-finance) and the current ERC20 contract (https://etherscan.io/token/0x0bc529c00c6401aef6d220be8c6ea1667f6ad93e...
-# Forecasts: 202
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on March 1, 2021?
-URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-1-2021
-Platform: PolyMarket
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 95.21%
-Description: This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on March 1, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, [https://www.whitehouse.gov/](https://www.whitehouse.gov/)
-# Forecasts: 3626
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will $BTC break $50k before April 1st, 2021?
-URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-btc-break-50k-before-april-1st-2021
-Platform: PolyMarket
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 42.10%
-Description: This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $50,000 at any point before April 1st, 2021, 12:00am EST, according to Coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin. This market starts on January 4, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes“ whenever BTC breaks $50,000 according to Coinmarketcap, and if that condition is not met by April 1st, 2021, it will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
-# Forecasts: 1629
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the US have fewer than 50,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before March 15, 2021?
-URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-50-000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-march-15-2021-1
-Platform: PolyMarket
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 53.74%
-Description: This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, March 15, 2021, 12:00 pm EST, with fewer than 50,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 50,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 50,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases), the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases.
-# Forecasts: 57
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?
-URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match
-Platform: PolyMarket
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 89.29%
-Description: This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for "Yes" and .10 for "No", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Inte...
-# Forecasts: 514
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Bitcoin or Tesla have a higher market cap on March 1, 2021?
-URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-or-tesla-have-a-higher-market-cap-on-march-1-2021
-Platform: PolyMarket
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 32.77%
-Description: This is a market on if Bitcoin ($BTC) or Tesla ($TSLA) will have the higher market capitalization on the resolution date, March 1, 2021, 4pm EST. If Bitcoin’s market capitalization (according to Coinmarketcap, based on circulating supply) is higher than Tesla’s at that time, this market will resolve to “Bitcoin”, and vice versa. The resolution sources for this market will be the official website of the NASDAQ, https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla, for Tesla’s market capitalization, and https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ for Bitcoin’s market capitalization.
-# Forecasts: 385
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17?
-URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-gov-newsom-by-march-17
-Platform: PolyMarket
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 68.00%
-Description: This is a market on if there will be enough petition signatures for a vote on the recall of California Governor Gavin Newson prior to March 17, 2021. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a recall election is triggered and "No" otherwise. The linked PredictIt question will be referenced as the leading resolution source, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom. This market will resolve when the PredictIt market is resolved, to the same outcome.
-# Forecasts: 179
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?
-URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021
-Platform: PolyMarket
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 6.51%
-Description: This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
-# Forecasts: 1721
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many subscribers will /r/wallstreetbets have on February 7, 2021?
-URL: https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-subscribers-will-rwallstreetbets-have-on-february-7-2021
-Platform: PolyMarket
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This is a market on the number of subscribers the r/wallstreetbets subreddit will have by the resolution date, February 7, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The options for this market are less than 6.5 million, 6.5-7.5 million, 7.5-8.5 million, 8.5-9.5 million, 9.5-10.5 million, and greater than 10.5 million. The market will resolve to whichever option corresponds to the resolution source's count of r/wallstreetbets' current subscribers. If r/wallstreetbets is inaccessible because of a ban or suspension at the time of market resolution, this market will resolve to "less than 6.5 million". If Reddit as a whole is offline at the time of market resolution, market resolution will be delayed until the earliest time at which the site is accessible. The resolution source for this market will be the "reader" count listed on https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integr...
-# Forecasts: 3457
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will LINK be above $30 on February 10th?
-URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-link-be-above-30-on-february-10th-1
-Platform: PolyMarket
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 26.51%
-Description: This is a market on if the USD price of Chainlink $LINK will be above $30 on February 10th, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/chainlink/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if LINK is trading above $30 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
-# Forecasts: 215
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Superbowl 55: Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-kansas-city-chiefs-win-superbowl-55
-Platform: PolyMarket
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 60.49%
-Description: This is a market on whether the Kansas City Chiefs will win the NFL Super Bowl 55. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to https://www.nfl.com/, the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 55. If they are eliminated from the NFL playoffs beforehand, or they lose the Super Bowl game, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of any postponement of the Super Bowl, this market will not be resolved until the game is played, unless the Kansas City Chiefs are not competing in this match. Note: in the event the Chiefs make the Superbowl, this market may be rephrased to "Chiefs vs Team 2", as opposed to Chiefs winning the Superbowl. Ultimately, it will have the exact some resolution and meaning, but may be easier to interpret. Note 2 (1-25-21): Chiefs made the Superbowl and market outcomes have been changed from "Yes | No" to "Chiefs | Bucs".
-# Forecasts: 756
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will ETH be above $2000 on March 1st, 2021?
-URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-march-1st-2021
-Platform: PolyMarket
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 41.20%
-Description: This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on March 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
-# Forecasts: 222
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the Senate convict Donald Trump on impeachment by April 29, 2021?
-URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-senate-convict-donald-trump-on-impeachment-before-june-1-2021
-Platform: PolyMarket
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 6.62%
-Description: This is a market on whether Donald Trump will be convicted of one or more articles of impeachment prior to April 29, 2021, 11:59pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the U.S. Senate, by a vote of at least two-thirds of the Members present, convicts President Trump on one or more articles of impeachment. This market will resolve to “No“ if the U.S. Senate does not convict President Trump of any articles of impeachment by a vote of at least two-thirds of the Members present prior to the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the equivalent PredictIt market, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7050/Will-the-Senate-convict-Donald-Trump-in-Biden's-first-100-days.
-# Forecasts: 667
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: $2000 stimulus checks by February 28, 2021?
-URL: https://polymarket.com/market/2000-stimulus-checks-by-february-28-2021
-Platform: PolyMarket
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 12.88%
-Description: This market concerns whether or not legislation will be signed into law by February 28, 2021, 11:59pm EST which includes direct government stimulus payments to US citizens of $2000. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date according to the official Congress website, regardless of if the stimulus checks have been paid out yet. This market will resolve to “No” if no such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be congress.gov/bill, the official website of Congress. Clarifying Note: In the event of an amendment that effectively increases stimulus payments from $600 to $2000, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of an additional payment of $1400 to supplement existing $600 payments, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of...
-# Forecasts: 1292
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: undefined
-URL: undefined
-Platform: undefined
-Binary question?: undefined
-Percentage: undefined
-Description:
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: undefined
-
-Title: How many more tweets will be on the @MCuban account on February 10, 2021?
-URL: https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mcuban-account-on-february-10-2021
-Platform: PolyMarket
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This is a market on the number of tweets which will be posted to Mark Cuban's Twitter account prior to the resolution date, February 10, 2021 at 3:00pm EST. At 3:00pm EST on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @MCuban, shall exceed 3,453 (the "Baseline") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label "TWEETS" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @MCuban, then clicking the verified account labeled "@MCuban" from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @MCuban just before 3:00 pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00 pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be in...
-# Forecasts: 428
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Coinbase delist Ripple (XRP) before they begin publicly trading?
-URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-coinbase-delist-ripple-xrp-before-they-begin-publicly-trading
-Platform: PolyMarket
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 93.57%
-Description: This is a market on if Coinbase will delist Ripple’s token, XRP, prior to the day they begin publicly trading. This market will resolve to “yes” if, before Coinbase stock begins trading, XRP has been delisted from Coinbase for US Users - meaning it can no longer be traded on either Coinbase or Coinbase Pro, for all Americans. This market will resolve to “no” if, for any reason, XRP is still available for trading to US Coinbase users on the day Coinbase begins publicly trading. The primary resolution source for this market will be Coinbase’s official webpage, which lists supported cryptocurrencies, https://help.coinbase.com/en/coinbase/getting-started/general-crypto-education/supported-cryptocurrencies, and specifically pertains to the US category. Even if XRP is available for trading via Coinbase in a jurisdiction other than the United States, or mentioned on the website or app, if it is not available for trading in the US, this market will resolve to “yes”. The resolution date for thi...
-# Forecasts: 551
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Kim Kardashian or Kanye West file for divorce before March 1, 2021?
-URL: https://polymarket.com/market/will-kim-kardashian-or-kanye-west-file-for-divorce-before-march-1-2021
-Platform: PolyMarket
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 24.18%
-Description: This is a market on whether Kanye West or Kim Kardashian will officially file for a divorce before March 1st 2021. Filing for divorce, in the context of this market, can be defined empirically as either an official announcement directly from either Kim or Kanye that they're getting divorced, or an official filing of divorce, including but not limited to certified copies of divorce decrees available from the Superior Court in the county where the decree was granted. This market will resolve "Yes" if the aforementioned conditions are met and "No" otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
-# Forecasts: 183
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?
-URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/111-how-much-funding-will-private-u-s-tech-companies-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive
-Platform: CSET-foretell
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is "private" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in Februar...
-# Forecasts: 10
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?
-URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/110-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive
-Platform: CSET-foretell
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within...
-# Forecasts: 8
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the opening price of GameStop stock on Tuesday, February 16?
-URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/112-what-will-be-the-opening-price-of-gamestop-stock-on-tuesday-february-16
-Platform: CSET-foretell
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context. The stock price of GameStop has increased 1700 percent over the past month after users on a Reddit subforum, Wall Street Bets, decided to invest in the stock. After the Reddit users noticed that institutional investors had aggressively shorted the stock -- indeed, shorting more than 100 percent of available shares -- they concluded that the stock price would have to increase when the institutional investors bought back their shares. By driving the price up before the institutional investors bought back their shares, the Reddit users effectively forced the institutional investors to sell at a higher price, further increasing the stock's value. The dynamics at play are unprecedented and have resulted in a stock price entirely unmoored from the value of the underlying company. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the opening GameStop stock value on Tuesday, February 16, as reported by Yahoo! Finance.The data underlying the graph is here.
-# Forecasts: 33
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Conditional on President Trump NOT being convicted of "incitement of insurrection," what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?
-URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022
-Platform: CSET-foretell
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Related question. This question has a sister question conditional on President Trump's conviction. You can view it here. After the Senate trial, we will close and void (not score) the question whose condition didn't occur and keep the other question open. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for "incitement of insurrection," setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, ...
-# Forecasts: 83
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Conditional on President Trump being convicted of "incitement of insurrection," what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?
-URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/108-conditional-on-the-senate-convicting-president-trump-of-insurrection-what-will-be-the-average-bipartisan-index-score-for-the-senate-during-congress-s-117th-session-2021-2022
-Platform: CSET-foretell
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Related question. This question has a sister question conditional on President Trump not being convicted. You can view it here. After the Senate trial, we will close and void (not score) the question whose condition didn't occur and keep the other question open. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for "incitement of insurrection," setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan ...
-# Forecasts: 77
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?
-URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive
-Platform: CSET-foretell
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV...
-# Forecasts: 71
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?
-URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive
-Platform: CSET-foretell
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an "AI grant" if the abstract mentions either "artificial intelligence" or "machine learning." The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Thre...
-# Forecasts: 85
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?
-URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive
-Platform: CSET-foretell
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an "AI" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the ri...
-# Forecasts: 28
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?
-URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021
-Platform: CSET-foretell
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, "Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol."The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a "bargaining unit" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, "workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract." Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible...
-# Forecasts: 71
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?
-URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive
-Platform: CSET-foretell
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term "artificial intelligence"; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms "privacy" and "security." The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
-# Forecasts: 36
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?
-URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022
-Platform: CSET-foretell
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 48%
-Description: Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that "China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones."The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, t...
-# Forecasts: 76
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?
-URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/101-on-how-many-of-china-s-top-chipmakers-will-the-united-states-impose-new-export-controls-in-2021
-Platform: CSET-foretell
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and the percentage of top SME producers' revenue that comes from China.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME). Chinese chipmakers can then use imported or domestically produced SME to produce chips domestically.For chip foundries, the top Chinese companies are Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), Hua Hong Semiconductor, Hua Li Microelectronics, and XMC. In September 2020, the Commerce Department notified the chip industry that SMIC was subject to mi...
-# Forecasts: 72
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?
-URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive
-Platform: CSET-foretell
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. The top five SME companies globally are: United States: Applied Materials; Lam Research; KLA Japan: Tokyo Electron Netherlands: ASML Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, ...
-# Forecasts: 51
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?
-URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021
-Platform: CSET-foretell
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 64%
-Description: Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the "lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy." In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if "Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations." Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad...
-# Forecasts: 170
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021?
-URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/95-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-in-2021
-Platform: CSET-foretell
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain depen...
-# Forecasts: 66
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?
-URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong
-Platform: CSET-foretell
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based...
-# Forecasts: 156
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021?
-URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/96-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-chips-in-2021
-Platform: CSET-foretell
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will...
-# Forecasts: 66
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021?
-URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/93-what-will-the-dollar-value-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-chips-to-china-be-in-the-first-half-of-2021
-Platform: CSET-foretell
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain...
-# Forecasts: 72
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in the first half of 2021?
-URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/92-what-will-the-dollar-value-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-to-china-be-in-the-first-half-of-2021
-Platform: CSET-foretell
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent o...
-# Forecasts: 59
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?
-URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey
-Platform: CSET-foretell
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey, which is still live. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually ...
-# Forecasts: 157
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?
-URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021
-Platform: CSET-foretell
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publicatio...
-# Forecasts: 90
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?
-URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025
-Platform: CSET-foretell
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 70%
-Description: Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolve...
-# Forecasts: 142
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?
-URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/80-what-percentage-of-u-s-citizens-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2021-pew-global-attitudes-survey
-Platform: CSET-foretell
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2021. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph ...
-# Forecasts: 216
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?
-URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/79-conditional-on-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fy-2021-october-1-2020-to-september-30-2021
-Platform: CSET-foretell
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Related question. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here. Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.Data and resolution details. This question asks about what will happen assuming Vice President Biden is elected. If he is not, this question wi...
-# Forecasts: 91
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?
-URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/76-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2021
-Platform: CSET-foretell
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020. You can view those forecasts here. The actual data for 2020 will be included in the graph below as soon as it's available.Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. Total exports and imports for the eight months ending August 30, 2020 were $332 billion, which puts the 2020 figure on pace for $498 billion. Data for those eight months are not included in the graph below. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, p...
-# Forecasts: 86
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?
-URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021
-Platform: CSET-foretell
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term "artificial intelligence" of "machine learning"; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either "ethics," "bias," fairness," or any variant of those terms. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field
-# Forecasts: 175
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How much will the U.S. government spend on surveillance-related AI grants between June 1, 2020 and May 31, 2021, inclusive?
-URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/41-how-much-will-the-u-s-government-spend-on-surveillance-related-ai-grants-between-june-1-2020-and-may-31-2021-inclusive
-Platform: CSET-foretell
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context. The U.S. government funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an "AI grant" if the abstract mentions either "artificial intelligence" or "machine learning." A grant is "surveillance related" if its abstract includes the term "surveillance," "facial recognition," or a variant on those terms. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through May 31, 2021. For the first third of the year in question -- not reflected in the graph below -- the U.S. government spent $1.1 million on surveillance-related AI grants. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments
-# Forecasts: 89
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?
-URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/32-how-many-sorties-against-chinese-aircraft-will-the-japanese-air-self-defense-force-conduct-by-april-30th-2020
-Platform: CSET-foretell
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context. Japan is a U.S. treaty ally and a major U.S. strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening (Gui Yongtao).Data and resolution details. This question resolves in April 2021 based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force). The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the questio...
-# Forecasts: 90
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?
-URL: https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/23-how-many-new-h-1b-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fy-2020
-Platform: CSET-foretell
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants (Arnold et al.). It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on "initial approvals" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2020. The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The"Big 5" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The date range, October 1 through September 30, is the government fiscal year.The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data. As of December 2020, the Employer Data Hub has data th...
-# Forecasts: 120
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will Joe Biden cease to be president of the United States?
-URL: https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/
-Platform: Good Judgment
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Opened 22 January 2021 The next inauguration for president of the United States is scheduled for [20 January](https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/amendments-11-27#xx) 2025. A transfer of presidential powers and duties to an acting president under Section 3 or Section 4 of the [25th Amendment](https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/amendments-11-27#xxv) for more than 30 consecutive calendar days would count. When he took the oath of office, Joe Biden became the oldest newly inaugurated US president in history and also the oldest sitting president ever. Does this imply increased odds he will cease to be president before the end of his term? Good Judgment's Superforecasters assign 7% probability to this outcome. Actuarial tables suggest a US male at age 78 will live another nine years on average. President Biden has no known underlying health conditions. He also has arguably the best health care in the world, and his father died at 87. But, as one Superforecaster pointed out, much can...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Before 1 January 2023, will legislation raising the top marginal tax rate for long-term capital gains in the U.S. to higher than 20% become law?
-URL: https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/
-Platform: Good Judgment
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Opened 20 November 2020 President-elect Joe Biden has signaled his intention to [change](https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-joe-bidens-tax-increase-wish-list-could-affect-you-11605263403) current [tax](https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-biden-capital-gains-tax/fact-check-biden-willonlytax-capital-gainsat-40for-those-earning-over-1-million-annually-idUSKBN26Z2CA) rates, however his ability to do so may turn on [control](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/14/us/politics/georgia-runoffs-senate-control.html) of the [Senate](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/06/2020-georgia-runoff-election-senate-loeffler-ossoff/6192322002/) . As of 20 November 2020, the top tax rate for long-term capital gains is [20%](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/101515/comparing-longterm-vs-shortterm-capital-gain-tax-rates.asp) . [Exceptions](https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc409) where certain capital gains are taxed at rates greater than the top tax rate would n...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Before 1 January 2023, will legislation raising the top corporate tax rate in the U.S. to higher than 21% become law?
-URL: https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/
-Platform: Good Judgment
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Opened 20 November 2020 President-elect Joe Biden has signaled his [intention](https://www.investopedia.com/explaining-biden-s-tax-plan-5080766) to change current tax rates, however his ability to do so may turn on [control](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/06/2020-georgia-runoff-election-senate-loeffler-ossoff/6192322002/) of the [Senate](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/14/us/politics/georgia-runoffs-senate-control.html) . As of 20 November 2020, the top corporate tax rate is [21%](https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/corporate-top-tax-rate-and-bracket) . The date the raise would take effect would be immaterial. A surtax on specific subsets of corporations (e.g., "Big Tech" firms) would not count. If relevant legislation does not become law, the question will close No on the appropriate party control bin as of the closing date. 19 January 2021 - Professional Superforecasters see an increased probability (63% on aggregate) that Democrat-controlled Se...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Before 1 January 2023, will legislation creating a "public option" health insurance plan administered by the federal government become law?
-URL: https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/
-Platform: Good Judgment
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Opened 20 November 2020 President-elect Joe Biden pledged to create a " [public](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/09/932071991/what-bidens-election-means-for-u-s-health-care-and-public-health) [option](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/07/joe-biden-policies-health-care-433626) " for the U.S. health care system, however his ability to do so may turn on control of the [Senate](https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-virus-outbreak-senate-elections-30e139b2435439fc8497304cdca600dd) . A "public option" would be a federally-administered insurance plan open to the public. The date a "public option" would be available would be immaterial. If relevant legislation does not become law, the question will close No on the appropriate party control bin as of the closing date. 19 January 2021 - In pondering the likelihood of a "public option" health insurance plan in the US before 2023, Good Judgment's professional Superforecasters examine such issues as t...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: Before 1 January 2023, will the United States ratify the TPP and/or the CPTPP?
-URL: https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/
-Platform: Good Judgment
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Opened 20 November 2020 Control of the U.S. Senate will impact the next administration's policy options, including the ratification of [global](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/11/16/business/economy-business/japan-rcep-joe-biden-us/) [trade](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/04/biden-would-want-the-us-to-rejoin-tpp-says-harvard-scholar.html) [agreements](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R43491.pdf), in this case ratification requiring a simple majority in both the Senate and the House. President Trump withdrew the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement ([TPP](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp)) [prior](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-tpp-mcconnell/obamas-tpp-deal-wont-get-senate-vote-this-year-mcconnell-idUSKCN1102CM) to ratification, and remaining parties went forward without the US and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership ([CPTPP](https://www.international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/tr...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: What will be the U.S. real GDP for the second quarter of 2021 relative to the U.S. real GDP for the second quarter of 2019?
-URL: https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/
-Platform: Good Judgment
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Opened 1 May 2020 Speculations are wide and numerous about how much the Covid [outbreak](https://www.morningstar.com/articles/976107/coronavirus-update-long-term-economic-impact-forecast-to-be-less-than-2008-recession) will [impact](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56335) U.S. real [GDP](https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-hit-to-us-economy-gdp-jobs-only-just-starting-2020-4) in the long term. The outcome will be determined using data for both Q2 2019 and Q2 2021 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1)) database upon the release of BEA's advance estimate for Q2 2021. Historical data are also available on [BEA](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey) 's website (select "view data in XLS or other formats, and see Table 1.1.6 in the Section 1 file). The real GDP reported for Q2 2019 as of launch was $19,021.860 bil...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?
-URL: https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/
-Platform: Good Judgment
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Opened 15 December 2020 This question was commissioned by [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic) . Dozens of [companies](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines) are trying to [develop](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine) a [viable](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html) vaccine for COVID-19. The [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19) has authorized [Pfizer](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/how-fedex-ups-plan-to-distribute-fda-approved-covid-vaccine-when-will-you-get-the-coronavirus-vaccine.html) 's COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be ...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: When will Germany report that 75 million cumulative vaccine doses for COVID-19 have been given?
-URL: https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/
-Platform: Good Judgment
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Opened 15 January 2021 The Pfizer vaccine was developed with German partner BioNTech, but the rollout in Germany has been [criticized](https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-vaccine-german-health-minister-jens-spahn-under-fire/a-56144390) for being [slow](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-germany/scarce-doses-and-empty-vaccination-centres-germanys-vaccine-rollout-headache-idUSKBN29F0BP) . The outcome will be determined using data published by the German government's [Robert Koch Institut](https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquoten-Tab.html) [in German]. Click on the first link under "Daten" at the bottom of the page to download an xlsx file. In the xlsx file that opens (currently named "Impfquotenmonitoring.xlsx"), see the "Gesamt_bis_einschl_[date]" (Total up to and including [date]) sheet. Refer to column "Gesamtzahl bisher verabreichter Impfstoffdosen" (Total number of vaccine doses given to date) in the row "Gesamt" (Total)...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?
-URL: https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/
-Platform: Good Judgment
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Opened 7 December 2020 The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is [pushing](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/08/944125280/u-k-begins-nationwide-coronavirus-immunization-largest-in-nations-history) to [execute](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55227325) its [plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-protocol-for-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-bnt162b2-pfizerbiontech) . The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the [UK](https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus) [government](https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1339167258866814976) . For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people. 6 January 2020 - Superforecasters currently see the highest (50%) probability that 35 million people in the UK will have been vaccinated between 1 May 2021 and 30 Jun...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?
-URL: https://goodjudgment.io/economist/
-Platform: Good Judgment
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Opened 9 October 2020 In its 2020 report, The [Conference](https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/boardpractices) [Board](https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/assets/Corporate%20Board%20Practices%202020%20Edition.pdf) reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&P 500 companies explicitly disclosed [board](https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/how-to-make-your-firm-more-diverse-and-inclusive) members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices [report](https://www.conference-board.org/us/) . 04 January 2021 - Bin B ("Between 23% and 27%, inclusive") remains a clear leader among the options since the question launched in October. A new NASDAQ rule for disclosing board composition by gender and race is a sign of a trend toward increased diversity expectations; however, the way things stand at present, th...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?
-URL: https://goodjudgment.io/economist/
-Platform: Good Judgment
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Opened 9 October 2020 The International Monetary Fund ([IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020)) and [others](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/09/16/is-the-world-economy-recovering) are projecting a significant [contraction](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/) in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF [website](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending), choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject ...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?
-URL: https://goodjudgment.io/economist/
-Platform: Good Judgment
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Opened 9 October 2020 Interest in [sustainable](https://www.morningstar.com/articles/994219/sustainable-funds-continue-to-rake-in-assets-during-the-second-quarter) [sector](https://www.morningstar.com/articles/984776/theres-ample-room-for-sustainable-investing-to-grow-in-the-us) [investment](https://www.economist.com/business/2020/10/03/the-proliferation-of-sustainability-accounting-standards-comes-with-costs) [has](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/trump-administration-targets-esg-funds-with-proposed-401-k-rule) been high in Europe and is increasing in the U.S.; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using [data](https://www.morningstar.com/lp/global-esg-flows) from [Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/articles/961765/sustainable-fund-flows-in-2019-smash-previous-records) for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. for 2020 and ...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?
-URL: https://goodjudgment.io/economist/
-Platform: Good Judgment
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Opened 9 October 2020 Dozens of companies are trying to [develop](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines) a [viable](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine) [vaccine](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html) for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived [can](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101) be [ found](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization) [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access) . "Compassionate use" and "emergency use" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also [count](https://www.fda.gov/n...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who "worked from home exclusively"?
-URL: https://goodjudgment.io/economist/
-Platform: Good Judgment
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Opened 9 October 2020 The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many [workers](https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/09/12/covid-19-has-forced-a-radical-shift-in-working-habits) to work from [home](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487), and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the [ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/1october2020#social-impacts-of-the-coronavirus-on-great-britain) reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021. 04 January 2021 - Ever since this question opened, Bin...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★★☆
-
-Title: How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 28 February 2021, according to the CDC?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1924-how-many-people-in-the-u-s-will-have-received-one-or-more-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-as-of-28-february-2021-according-to-the-cdc
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as recorded by the CDC (updated daily) under “Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses” at approximately 10:00PM ET on 28 February 2021 ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations)).
-# Forecasts: 54
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week starting 21 February 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1921-how-many-u-s-adult-and-pediatric-hospital-admissions-with-confirmed-covid-19-cases-will-there-be-for-the-week-starting-21-february-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' "COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries" for the week starting 21 February 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state-timeseries)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, "previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed" and "previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed," inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are "previous day" data, we will use the data dated 22 February 2021 through 28 February 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 6 March 2021.
-# Forecasts: 16
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week starting 21 February 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1922-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-starting-21-february-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 February 2021 through 27 February 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 February 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 February 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 6 March 2021.
-# Forecasts: 29
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week starting 21 February 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1923-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-starting-21-february-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 February 2021 through 27 February 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 February 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 February 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 6 March 2021.
-# Forecasts: 25
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will there be a new prime minister of Italy before 1 September 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1919-will-there-be-a-new-prime-minister-of-italy-before-1-september-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 95%
-Description: After the resignation of Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, how the next Italian government will be formed -- and how Italy will continue to weather the COVID-19 crisis -- remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/lots-of-eu-cash-for-italy-but-what-about-structural-reform), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55802611), [thelocal.it](https://www.thelocal.it/20210105/early-elections-or-waste-of-time-heres-what-italys-latest-political-crisis-means)). Neither a reappointment of Conte nor the appointment of a caretaker prime minister would count.
-# Forecasts: 115
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage:
-Description: The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/table), see 'Deaths - cumulative total', [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#tab-0-1)). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch.
-# Forecasts: 122
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/100306972/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-champion-of-gender-equality-dies-at-87), [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx)). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies.
-# Forecasts: 124
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1920-what-will-be-the-combined-u-s-domestic-theater-box-office-gross-for-june-july-and-august-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-pandemic-has-shaken-up-the-movie-business), [LA Times](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-12-09/everything-hollywood-lost-during-the-pandemic)). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the "Cumulative Gross" column for June, July, and August 2021 ([Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/by-year/2021/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses)). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148.
-# Forecasts: 52
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1918-before-1-october-2021-will-the-republic-of-chad-announce-that-legislative-elections-currently-scheduled-for-24-october-2021-will-be-postponed-or-canceled
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 90%
-Description: Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/covid-19-will-help-unscrupulous-incumbents-in-african-elections), [Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/news/chad-sets-october-2021-for-delayed-legislative-election-state-radio-01593699304), [Le Monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/07/03/tchad-les-legislatives-reportees-depuis-5-ans-fixees-a-octobre-2021_6045040_3212.html) [in French]).
-# Forecasts: 36
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1917-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 15-16 June 2021.
-# Forecasts: 52
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 45%
-Description: Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country ([UN](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/01/1082082), [Radio Canada International](https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2021/01/16/aid-groups-worry-u-s-terrorist-designation-of-yemen-rebels-will-hasten-famine/), [In Depth News](https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/sustainability/food-security-nutrition-sustainable-agriculture/4093-desert-locust-upsurge-continues-to-threaten-food-security-in-the-horn-of-africa)). For general information on how famines are declared, see: [Integrated Food Security Phase Classification](http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-24/en/), [NPR](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean) .
-# Forecasts: 109
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 68%
-Description: Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years ([TASS](https://tass.com/defense/1236575), [Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9110579/Russia-planning-flight-test-new-missile-capable-destroying-area-size-France.html)). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/russia-to-deploy-sarmat-icbm-in-2021/)). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial.
-# Forecasts: 94
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1909-will-chinese-businessman-jack-ma-physically-appear-in-public-outside-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-before-1-april-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 5%
-Description: Alibaba founder Jack Ma made his first public appearance on 20 January 2021 after three months since an October 2020 event in Shanghai where he was critical of Chinese regulators ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/china-alibaba-jack-ma/alibabas-jack-ma-makes-first-public-appearance-in-three-months-idINKBN29P0CV), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/01/08/954046428/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-has-fallen-off-the-radar-here-are-some-clues-why), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/24/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-on-ant-group-ipo-pricing.html)). An early January report indicated that Ma wasn't missing, but rather "lying low" ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-is-laying-low-for-the-time-being-not-missing.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/jack-ma-missing-billionaire-video-alibaba-1558672)). For the purposes of this question, both Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be parts of the PRC.
-# Forecasts: 138
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 15%
-Description: The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count. Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021? Información adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-r...
-# Forecasts: 235
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761)). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the ".CSV" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data ("numtoday") associated with daily entries for "Canada" under "prname."
-# Forecasts: 139
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913-how-many-u-s-states-will-have-an-infection-rate-of-1-0-or-greater-for-covid-19-as-of-31-march-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The infection rate (also known as Rt) "is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect" ([COVID Act Now - Glossary](https://covidactnow.org/glossary#infection-rate)). The outcome will be determined using data from [covidactnow.org](https://covidactnow.org) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table "Compare," set to "States," under "INFECTION RATE." As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
-# Forecasts: 151
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 4%
-Description: Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.
-# Forecasts: 112
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904-will-the-scottish-national-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-next-scottish-parliament-election
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 90%
-Description: The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 ([Edinburgh Live](https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-says-19564859), [Parliament.scot](https://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/96259.aspx), [Parliament.scot - Current State of the Parties](https://www.parliament.scot/msps/12450.aspx)). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54879211)).
-# Forecasts: 152
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 11%
-Description: In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [Taipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Nicaragua reconocerá diplomáticamente a la República Popular China antes del 7 de noviembre de 2021? Inf...
-# Forecasts: 61
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267)). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma ([RT](https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7)). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question.
-# Forecasts: 91
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1906-before-15-july-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-moldova-s-parliament
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has called for parliament to be dissolved and snap elections to be held ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/moldova-president-premier/moldovan-president-appoints-interim-pm-but-pushes-for-snap-election-idINKBN29512D)). Since she won on a pro-EU platform, it remains to be seen if the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) can maintain its support ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55135213), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-moldova-election-results/moldova-set-for-coalition-talks-after-inconclusive-election-idUSKCN1QE11O)). The closing date for this question will not be extended.
-# Forecasts: 53
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-election
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/a-difficult-year-looms-for-the-european-union), [Dutch News](https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/a-record-86-parties-register-for-the-march-2021-general-election/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55674146), [houseofrepresentatives.nl](https://www.houseofrepresentatives.nl/cabinet)). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-government/new-dutch-government-sworn-in-after-record-negotiations-idUSKBN1CV15D)). A caretaker government would not count.
-# Forecasts: 97
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 54%
-Description: While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong ([Costa Rica News](https://thecostaricanews.com/russia-confirms-plans-to-produce-its-coronavirus-vaccine-in-nicaragua/), [The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/04/foreign-policy-experts-map-russias-plans-for-2021-a72365), [Kyiv Post](https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-starts-applying-sanctions-against-nicaragua-because-of-consulate-in-crimea.html), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-soviet-union-fought-the-cold-war-in-nicaragua-now-putins-russia-is-back/2017/04/08/b43039b0-0d8b-11e7-aa57-2ca1b05c41b8_story.html)). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government ([government.ru](http://government.ru/en/gov/persons/)).
-# Forecasts: 65
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day "Market Cap" figure as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UBER:US)).
-# Forecasts: 122
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LV?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1898-which-nfl-team-will-win-super-bowl-lv
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Super Bowl LV (55) is scheduled for Sunday 7 February in Tampa, FL ([NFL](https://www.nfl.com/super-bowl)).
-# Forecasts: 229
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 77%
-Description: North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/emigration-and-low-birth-rates-are-affecting-the-balkans), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7), [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-census-yes-census-no-207268), [Balkan Insight](https://balkaninsight.com/2020/10/09/north-macedonia-makes-fresh-push-for-long-overdue-census/)). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372)). The actual release of data is immaterial.
-# Forecasts: 96
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/amlo-proposes-a-referendum-on-his-presidency-in-mexico), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-president/mexico-presidents-rating-at-one-year-high-with-election-in-sight-poll-idUSKBN2820SU)). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial.
-# Forecasts: 82
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 80%
-Description: An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-thinking-is-needed-on-workers-rights), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/business/amazon-union-vote-bessemer-alabama.html), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/531500-amazon-workers-in-alabama-inch-closer-to-union-vote)). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count. NOTE 11 January 2021: Any Amazon subsidiary wholly-owned by Amazon would count.
-# Forecasts: 158
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 15%
-Description: The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few), [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern)). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the "Leveraged Loan Trends" section, click on the "Default Rate" tab to show the "Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17.
-# Forecasts: 154
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 3%
-Description: President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nicaraguan-government-sets-date-presidential-election-71785222), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/blog/ten-elections-watch-2021), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/elections-blockades-central-america-daniel-ortega-nicaragua-14d04033e443f6da9bf3d11aec0dae47)). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 ([Nicaragua Constitution](https://noticias.asamblea.gob.ni//constitucion/Libro_Constitucion.pdf) [in Spanish], [Nicaragua Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nicaragua_2014.pdf?lang=en) [in English]).
-# Forecasts: 80
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Before 15 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1892-before-15-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 1%
-Description: Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.
-# Forecasts: 203
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is facing challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic continues ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/coronavirus-amc-seeks-550-million-as-stock-closes-at-record-low.html), [Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/14/amc-entertainment-lenders-urge-it-to-declare-bankr/)).
-# Forecasts: 157
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903858871/apple-is-1st-2-trillion-american-company)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg - APPL](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US), see "MARKET CAP"). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., [Bloomberg - ARAMCO](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB), [Bloomberg - SAR](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR)).
-# Forecasts: 149
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol? Información adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o e...
-# Forecasts: 96
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: How many seats in the Legislative Assembly will New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) win in the 2021 Salvadoran legislative election?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1889-how-many-seats-in-the-legislative-assembly-will-new-ideas-nuevas-ideas-win-in-the-2021-salvadoran-legislative-election
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The 2021 Salvadoran legislative election is scheduled for 28 February 2021 and all 84 seats in the Legislative Assembly are to be contested ([21votes.com](https://21votes.com/el-salvador-elections/), [El Salvador Perspectives](http://www.elsalvadorperspectives.com/2020/08/el-salvador-looks-toward-2021-national.html)). New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) is a political party recently created by Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/world/americas/el-salvador-nayib-bukele.html), [World Politics Review](https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/24345/el-salvador-s-elections-reveal-voters-frustration-with-politics-as-usual)). A seat gained as part of a Coalition Pact (Pacto de Coalición) will count toward the resolution of this question ([Tribunal Supremo Electoral](https://www.tse.gob.sv/elecciones-2021/inicio#pactos-de-coalicion) [in Spanish], [Gato Encerrado](https://gatoencerrado.news/2020/09/01/nuevas-ideas-pacto-91-coaliciones-con-gana-pcn-y-cd-par...
-# Forecasts: 45
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the closing price of Mercado Libre stock on 15 February 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1888-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-mercado-libre-stock-on-15-february-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Latin American e-commerce company Mercado Libre has had a major surge in business during the COVID-19 pandemic ([eMarketer](https://www.emarketer.com/content/mercado-libre-will-surpass-20-billion-ecommerce-sales-2020)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/MELI:US)). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Cual será el precio de cierre de la acción de Mercado Libre el 15 de febrero de 2021? Información adicional: La empresa de e-commerce latino-americana Mercado Libre ha visto un gran crecimiento durante la pandemia de COVID-19 ([eMarketer](https://www.emarketer.com/content/mercado-libre-will-surpass-20-billion-ecommerce-sales-2020)). El resultado de esta pregunta será determinado por el precio de cierre reportado por Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/MELI:US)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una ...
-# Forecasts: 245
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/10-year-treasury-yield-plunges.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/30-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y)).
-# Forecasts: 146
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 10%
-Description: Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-section-230-and-why-do-so-many-lawmakers-want-to-repeal-it/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/trump-and-section-230-what-know), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10306.pdf), [Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/trump-ndaa-veto-section-230/)).
-# Forecasts: 159
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies approve the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1890-when-will-mexico-s-chamber-of-deputies-approve-the-federal-law-for-the-regulation-of-cannabis
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: After several delays and being approved by the Senate of the Republic, the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis is scheduled for a vote by Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies sometime between February and April 2021 ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthoban/2021/12/27/will-we-see-mexico-legalize-cannabis-in-2021/?sh=180c18034ed9), [Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/mexico-set-to-become-worlds-largest-legal-cannabis-market-11609263506), [Xataka](https://www.xataka.com.mx/medicina-y-salud/consumir-marihuana-sera-legal-mexico-todo-que-hay-que-saber-nueva-regulacion-consumo-ludico-cannabis) [in Spanish], [El Economista](https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/politica/Diputados-deben-subsanar-deficiencias-en-legislacion-que-descriminaliza-la-mariguana-expertos-20201129-0008.html) [in Spanish]). The approval of an amended version of the legislation approved by the Mexican Senate would count. Whether the legislation actually becomes law is immaterial, and procedural votes o...
-# Forecasts: 30
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a number of daily new COVID-19 cases per 100k residents of 75.0 or higher?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1881-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-number-of-daily-new-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-of-75-0-or-higher
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load ([CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using data from https://covidactnow.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 March 2021. See the table "Compare," set to "States," under "DAILY NEW CASES PER 100K." For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
-# Forecasts: 360
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1880-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-covid-19-positivity-rate-greater-than-10-0
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load ([CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using data from https://covidactnow.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 March 2021. See the table “Compare,” set to "States," under "POSITIVE TEST RATE." For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
-# Forecasts: 279
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1879-before-1-april-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-israel-s-knesset
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Disagreements within the ruling coalition, most recently over the budget, may lead Israel to hold its fourth election in two years ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/world/middleeast/israeli-parliament-election.html), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/bill-to-dissolve-knesset-set-for-delay-until-next-week-angering-blue-and-white/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/22/israeli-knesset-likely-to-dissolve-as-extension-vote-fails/)).
-# Forecasts: 240
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 27-28 April 2021.
-# Forecasts: 92
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 50%
-Description: The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/facebook-hopes-the-cryptocurrency-diem-it-backs-will-launch-in-2021.html), [Diem](https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-diem-facebooks-libra-project-everything-you-need-to-know/), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp)).
-# Forecasts: 124
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 2%
-Description: The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets/emerging-markets-turkeys-lira-falls-past-8-per-dollar-fx-stocks-eye-6th-week-of-gains-idUSL4N2IR24P), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-11/turkish-lira-declines-as-u-s-sanctions-risk-sours-appetite)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR)).
-# Forecasts: 134
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case ([European Parliament - Briefing](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI(2020)652066_EN.pdf), [European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement), [CEPS](https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline), [Core.ac.uk](https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf)). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progres...
-# Forecasts: 371
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html), [Sinopharm](http://www.sinopharm.com/1156.html), [Sinovac](http://www.sinovac.com/), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/14/chinas-sinopharm-vaccine-how-effective-is-it-and-where-will-it-be-rolled-out), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55212787)). For more details of the EMA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [AP](https://apnews.com/article/europe-vaccine-approval-explained-193bc87c8930c54bfc9b9b21c4a9e3f0), [EMA](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines-covid-19), [EMA - Approvals](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-studies-approval) . For more details regarding the FDA’s vaccine app...
-# Forecasts: 336
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 12%
-Description: Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/fully-driverless-cars-are-being-tested-in-china-for-the-first-time.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/02/autox-removes-safety-drivers/), [CGTN](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-11/Baidu-rolls-out-self-driving-taxi-service-in-Beijing-UvCnsSa3g4/index.html)). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question. Note 2 February 2021: A ride-hailing service using AVs that have remote monitors capable of taking control of the vehicle would not count.
-# Forecasts: 235
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 2%
-Description: The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called “Phase One” agreement signed in January 2020 ([U.S. Trade Representative](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/US_China_Agreement_Fact_Sheet.pdf), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/trump-and-china-sign-phase-one-trade-agreement.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-details-factbox-idUSKBN1ZE2IF), [FOX Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-china-phase-one-trade-deal-whats-next), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-idUSKBN28C0HV)).
-# Forecasts: 293
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 22%
-Description: Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/12/12/10-questions-about-bidens-plan-to-cancel-student-loans/), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/us/biden-clashes-with-liberals-over-student-loan-cancellation.html), [Nerd Wallet](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt)). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/can-joe-biden-forgive-student-debt-without-congress-experts-weigh-in.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january)). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness wou...
-# Forecasts: 205
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the monthly occupancy level of European hotels next reach 50.0% or higher before June 2021, according to Smith Travel Research?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1874-will-the-monthly-occupancy-level-of-european-hotels-next-reach-50-0-or-higher-before-june-2021-according-to-smith-travel-research
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 15%
-Description: Travel demand in Europe has taken a major hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic ([Fodor's Travel Guide](https://www.fodors.com/news/news/coronavirus-outbreak-should-you-cancel-a-trip-to-europe-right-now)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Smith Travel Research and its monthly European hotel performance reports, which are generally released the third week of the following month. The reports can be found at https://str.com/data-insights/news/press-releases by setting "Region" to "Europe," and "Type" to "Monthly." After selecting a particular monthly report, see "Occupancy" under the "Euro Constant currency" section. In October 2020, the occupancy level was 32.3% ([Smith Travel Research](https://str.com/press-release/str-europe-hotel-performance-october-2020))
-# Forecasts: 278
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/china-canada-diplomat-michael-kovrig-detention-latest-), [Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/06/24/two-michaels-fight-is-bigger-than-canada-global-observers-say-and-the-world-is-watching.html), [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1395286595882), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112949/huaweis-meng-wanzhou-back-canadian-court-first-time-reports)).
-# Forecasts: 235
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 8%
-Description: In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach ([Yahoo News](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042), [Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html)). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a "Yes" resolution.
-# Forecasts: 191
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-cruise-canceled-trnd/index.html), [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html)). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count.
-# Forecasts: 187
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 51%
-Description: The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones ([Rotten Tomatoes](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones)). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/books/george-rr-martin-winds-of-winter.html), [Express](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1359042/Winds-of-Winter-release-date-George-RR-Martin-blog-ASOIAF-expert-Game-of-Thrones), [Entertainment Weekly](https://ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date/)).
-# Forecasts: 70
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 5%
-Description: The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is known as the "Bank Rate" ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/britain-will-face-disruption-and-deficit-while-many-britons-will-face-the-dole), [Bank of England](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate)). Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and negotiations with the EU regarding an end to the Brexit transition period, the Bank of England has explored setting negative interest rates for the UK ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54314971), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/20/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rates-gertjan-vlieghe-covid), [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/uk-banks-ready-for-painful-negative-interest-rates-market-has-baked-them-in-61330250), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/72500c20-4a49-4fa9-a3c8-40ce1d26f436)).
-# Forecasts: 287
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 90%
-Description: Net international migration between the U.S. and abroad projected for 2019 was at its lowest level of the decade at 595,000 ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/net-international-migration-projected-to-fall-lowest-levels-this-decade.html)). The outcome will be determined using data on the projected net international migration for 2021 as first reported by the U.S. Census Bureau ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html)). Download the Excel file "Population, Population Change, and Estimated Components of Population Change." See the row designated "10" under "SUMLEV" and "United States" under "NAME." The relevant data are titled "INTERNATIONALMIG[year]." For methodological information, see the "Nation, States, Counties, and Puerto Rico Population" Methodology file here: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html.
-# Forecasts: 91
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 70%
-Description: Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-107), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/), [Bloomberg Law](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/california-farmers-get-supreme-court-review-of-union-access-rule), [National Law Review](https://www.natlawreview.com/article/scotus-to-consider-whether-california-unconstitutionally-takes-private-property-when)). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed ([Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/nursery-v-shiroma)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."
-# Forecasts: 57
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The outcome will be determined using futures price data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM)).
-# Forecasts: 148
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2020/11/10/whats-happening-in-kyrgyzstan), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54493185)). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-punts-on-elections-to-pursue-constitutional-reforms/)). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030)).
-# Forecasts: 92
-Stars: ★★☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-report
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 90%
-Description: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/governments-must-judge-if-the-economic-recovery-needs-more-help), [IMF - June 2020](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020), [World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/)). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2021, which is expected in April 2021. At the IMF website ([IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending)), choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to ...
-# Forecasts: 295
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/latin-americas-leaders-will-have-plenty-of-headaches), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/americas/peru-protests-explainer-scli-intl/index.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-politics-idUSKBN27W1KU)). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed ([Peruvian Times](https://www.peruviantimes.com/09/general-elections-to-be-held-april-2021/32266/)). NOTE 15 December 2020: If the first round of the election takes place and requires a subsequent runoff scheduled for after 30 September 2021, the suspend date would be extended to accommodate the runoff. If no election takes place before 1 October 2021, the suspend date would not be extended and the question would resolve on that answer bin.
-# Forecasts: 118
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who "worked from home exclusively" fell below 20%?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 50%
-Description: The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/new-technological-behaviours-will-outlast-the-pandemic), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively ([ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/26november2020), see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021. The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudg...
-# Forecasts: 386
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Who will be appointed as the next leader of the Communist Party in Vietnam?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1848-who-will-be-appointed-as-the-next-leader-of-the-communist-party-in-vietnam
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Vietnam's next National Party Congress is scheduled for January 2021, at which the next secretary-general of the party is meant to be appointed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vietnams-communist-party-will-have-a-new-leader), [Vietnam Times](https://vietnamtimes.org.vn/website-of-13th-national-party-congress-launched-24904.html)). Rumors have suggested some of the top leadership positions could be consolidated ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/09/three-horse-race-for-vietnams-next-communist-party-chief/)). NOTE 26 January 2021: If a new leader other than the incumbent is not appointed before 1 March 2021, then the question will close "A new leader will not be appointed before 1 March 2021."
-# Forecasts: 220
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/chinas-economy-will-hold-up-well-in-the-coming-year)). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics ([National Bureau of Statistics](http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01)). The relevant data are listed as "Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter." For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021.
-# Forecasts: 433
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/the-path-to-a-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-quick-but-it-will-be-bumpy), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained)).
-# Forecasts: 946
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-battle-within-the-electric-vehicle-industry-will-intensify)). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 ([Tesla Q1 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/HZTKGL_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-1Q_VGVL6F.pdf), [Tesla Q2 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under "Shareholder Deck" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021.
-# Forecasts: 418
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 6%
-Description: Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/neither-plagues-nor-scandals-will-topple-brazils-populist-president)).
-# Forecasts: 267
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the average price of a gallon of gasoline fall below $1.95 for any week before 2 March 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1847-will-the-average-price-of-a-gallon-of-gasoline-fall-below-1-95-for-any-week-before-2-march-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 1%
-Description: The initial onset of the COVID-19 pandemic drove gasoline prices under $2.00 per gallon across much of the country ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/gas-prices-are-lowest-years-oil-prices-plummet-due-coronavirus-outbreak-1498622)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for "Weekly U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices" ([EIA](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPM0_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W)).
-# Forecasts: 372
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 2%
-Description: Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite continued international pressure and domestic instability ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/25/leopoldo-lopez-flees-venezuela-vowing-to-continue-fighting-maduro-regime), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/9/maduro-hopes-to-resume-decent-dialogue-with-us-after-biden-win), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-defend-start-dialogue-trump-biden-wins-1544542)). This question is a longer-term companion of [#1642](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1642-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-january-2021) .
-# Forecasts: 405
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 70%
-Description: The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/01/brazil-amazon-rainforest-worst-fires-in-decade), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53893161)). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its "Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 ([Global Fire Emissions Database](http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html)).
-# Forecasts: 206
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 95%
-Description: A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 ([EIA 19 October 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45516), [EIA 30 June 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44276)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for "Total" under "Renewable Energy" ([EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03)). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources. NOTE 4 January 2021: The EIA figure for "Total" under "Renewable Energy" has been slightly revised since the question was launched. To be clear, the outcome will be determined using data as reported for May 2019 and May 2021 when May 2021 data are first reported by the EIA.
-# Forecasts: 267
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 85%
-Description: On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/abiy-ahmed-presents-ethiopias-voters-with-an-unhappy-choice), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/4/ethiopia-declares-state-of-emergency-in-opposition-tigray-region), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54805088), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/africa/ethiopia-abiy-unrest-explainer-intl/index.html)). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it ([Ethiopian Constitution](https://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/et00000_.html), see Article 93).
-# Forecasts: 245
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Between 13 November 2020 and 12 February 2021, will the closing price per barrel of WTI crude oil be higher than the closing price per barrel of Brent crude oil?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1839-between-13-november-2020-and-12-february-2021-will-the-closing-price-per-barrel-of-wti-crude-oil-be-higher-than-the-closing-price-per-barrel-of-brent-crude-oil
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 0%
-Description: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is a benchmark price for oil in the U.S., while Brent is a benchmark price for oil from the North Sea ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/052615/what-difference-between-brent-crude-and-west-texas-intermediate.asp)). The spread, or difference, between the price of the two is an important metric in energy markets ([Oil Price](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Big-Oil-Price-Gamble-US-Producers-Cut-Back-On-Hedging.html), [CME Group](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/whitepapers/worldwide-oil-wti-brent-spread.html)). The outcome will be determined using futures prices as provided by Bloomberg (WTI: [Bloomberg - WTI](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM), Brent: [Bloomberg - Brent](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CO1:COM)).
-# Forecasts: 268
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)).
-# Forecasts: 234
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the People's Republic of China (PRC) officially declare an air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 March 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1832-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-officially-declare-an-air-defense-identification-zone-adiz-over-any-part-of-the-south-china-sea-before-1-march-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 3%
-Description: In recent years, there has been speculation that China would declare an ADIZ over the South China Sea ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/south-east-asian-countries-are-trapped-between-two-superpowers), [National Interest](https://nationalinterest.org/feature/will-china-set-air-defense-identification-zone-south-china-sea-160896), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2016/07/13/asia/south-china-sea-ruling-reaction-adiz/)). An extension of the existing East China Sea ADIZ to cover part of the South China Sea would count. For more information on air defense identification zones and the conflict in the South China Sea, see: [Defense.info](https://defense.info/global-dynamics/2020/08/will-china-declare-an-air-defense-identification-zone-in-south-china-sea/), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/china/2020/06/17/chinas-next-move-in-the-south-china-sea), [Inquirer.net](https://globalnation.inquirer.net/188899/china-plan-to-control-south-china-sea-airspace-dangerous-says-l...
-# Forecasts: 371
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Between 9 November 2020 and 28 February 2021, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1831-between-9-november-2020-and-28-february-2021-will-a-country-cease-to-formally-recognize-taiwan
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 1%
-Description: In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&sms=A76B7230ADF29736)). Two countries in Oceania, the Solomon Islands and Kiribati, were the countries to most recently cease to recognize the ROC ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/who-recognizes-taiwan-two-change-china-1460559)).
-# Forecasts: 469
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Russia and the People's Republic of China (PRC) conduct any joint naval exercises before 1 March 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1833-will-russia-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-conduct-any-joint-naval-exercises-before-1-march-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 95%
-Description: Russia and China have engaged in joint naval exercises in the past, both bilaterally and with other nations ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2019/04/china-russia-kick-off-bilateral-naval-exercise-joint-sea/), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/27/asia/china-russia-iran-military-drills-intl-hnk/index.html)). Both Russia and the PRC conducting joint naval exercises with one or more other navies would also count. NOTE 13 November 2020: The joint exercises must include both Russia and China to count.
-# Forecasts: 392
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 35 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the Europe Region?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1834-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-35-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-europe-region
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Europe’s “second wave” of COVID-19 has increased concerns regarding the impact of the disease on the continent ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/11/07/the-second-wave-of-covid-19-has-sent-much-of-europe-back-into-lockdown), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/05/europes-second-wave-anger-in-italy-as-covid-restrictions-bite-across-continent)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)).
-# Forecasts: 381
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: At close of business on 17 March 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 January 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1824-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-27-january-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 16-17 March 2021.
-# Forecasts: 141
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 2%
-Description: Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finds himself under increased pressure as Arab states improve ties with Israel and political rivals jockey for position ([Middle East Monitor](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201027-the-growing-calls-to-replace-the-palestinian-leadership/), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-slams-israel-sudan-deal-no-one-can-speak-on-behalf-of-palestinians/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/30/mohammed-dahlan-uae-palestinians-israel/)).
-# Forecasts: 176
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 2%
-Description: As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) ([Medium](https://medium.com/swlh/should-amazon-spin-off-aws-e15d6e307506), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/former-amazon-senior-engineer-calls-for-aws-spinoff.html), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/6/21505027/congress-big-tech-antitrust-report-facebook-google-amazon-apple-mark-zuckerberg-jeff-bezos-tim-cook), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp)). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.
-# Forecasts: 263
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 95%
-Description: Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants ([Apple](https://www.apple.com/iphone/)). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales ([9 to 5 Mac](https://9to5mac.com/2019/11/25/iphone-12-5g-demand/), [ABS-CBN](https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/10/14/20/in-china-apples-5g-iphone-12-sparks-fever-pitch-but-divided-reaction)). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx under the "Annual Reports on Form 10-K" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 ([Apple 10-K (2020)](https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/7b5717ca-6222-48e6-801c-9ea28feeef86.pdf), see page 21).
-# Forecasts: 238
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: As of 23 October 2020, 3 countries have more than one hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19: the U.S., Brazil, and India ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20201003-india-s-covid-19-death-toll-tops-100-000-behind-us-and-brazil)). The outcome of this question will be determined using data reported by the World Health Organization at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 April 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)).
-# Forecasts: 1055
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 2%
-Description: Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha faces an array of challenges, including calls for him to resign and protests in the streets of Bangkok against the actions of the monarchy ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54573349), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/thailand-pm-refuses-to-step-down-as-protesters-defy-police/a-55301495), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/asia/thailand-weekend-protests-monarchy-intl-hnk/index.html)).
-# Forecasts: 244
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 4%
-Description: Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people ([Al-Monitor](https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/egypt-ethiopia-sudan-talks-stalled-nile-dam.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53432948), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/28/renaissance-dam-ethiopia-egypt-negotiations/)). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council ([Egypt Today](https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88770/Egypt-refers-GERD-issue-to-UN-Security-Council), [UN](https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14232.doc.htm)).
-# Forecasts: 172
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The U.S., China, Russia, and other countries are working to develop hypersonic weapons ([Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/R45811.pdf), [ScienceMag.org](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/national-pride-stake-russia-china-united-states-race-build-hypersonic-weapons), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/magazine/hypersonic-missiles.html)). The U.S. Army and Navy collaborated on and successfully tested the C-HGB in March 2020 and are looking to conduct further flight tests in 2021 ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/smd/2020/08/05/heres-how-the-dod-plans-to-meet-its-ambitious-hypersonic-missile-test-schedule/)). A flight test will be considered “successful” if the U.S. military announces that the C-HGB reaches its designated impact point ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/smr/army-modernization/2020/03/20/pentagons-major-hypersonic-glide-body-flight-test-deemed-success/)). NOTE 29 October 2020: The simu...
-# Forecasts: 133
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 98%
-Description: Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 ([Boom Supersonic](https://boom-press-assets.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Boom-Supersonic-XB1-Rollout-Press-Release.pdf), [BoomSupersonic.com](https://boomsupersonic.com), [Flight Global](https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boom-rolls-out-xb-1-supersonic-demonstrator-lays-out-overture-timeline/140513.article)). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands.
-# Forecasts: 122
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Travel from the U.S. to Canada for discretionary reasons (non-essential), such as for tourism, recreation or entertainment, is currently prohibited due to COVID-19 ([Government of Canada](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/services/covid/non-canadians-canadiens-eng.html), [U.S. Embassy - Canada](https://ca.usembassy.gov/travel-restrictions-fact-sheet/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/canada-will-pitch-safe-tourism-to-travelers-once-borders-open)). Permitting discretionary travel for one or more points of entry from the U.S. to Canada would count.
-# Forecasts: 420
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 10%
-Description: The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us)). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question.
-# Forecasts: 557
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ([LMTonline](https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php), [Real Estate Weekly](https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/), [Commercial Property Executive](https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS)).
-# Forecasts: 225
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates ([Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202009175758/us-housing-starts-slip-in-august), [KATU](https://katu.com/news/following-the-money/timber-industry-hit-hard-by-fires-will-have-generational-impact)). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST)). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million.
-# Forecasts: 356
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-government
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Mustapha Adib, who was chosen to form a government after the previous one had been toppled following a massive explosion in Beirut in early August 2020, resigned on 26 September 2020, citing tensions among the various political groups in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54307896), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/12/21/why-lebanon-struggles-to-form-governments), [France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200927-live-france-s-macron-speaks-about-lebanon-s-crisis-after-pm-designate-quits), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-beirut-emmanuel-macron-lebanon-financial-markets-257abf1fd90d95ef27f8344204be30e3)).
-# Forecasts: 359
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Before 1 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation at sea between the forces of India and the People's Republic of China?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1795-before-1-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-at-sea-between-the-forces-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 0%
-Description: A violent clash in mid-June 2020 between soldiers along a disputed stretch of border between India and China left at least 20 dead, sparking concerns over continued escalation of tensions between the two neighbors ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53061476), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/why-chinese-and-indian-troops-are-clashing-again/2020/09/02/0c1f5f90-ed01-11ea-bd08-1b10132b458f_story.html), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-india-shots-fired-border-dispute), [Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-seeks-naval-edge-as-china-penetrates-indian-ocean-11600945203)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one or more fatalities of the forces-the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement officials-of either side. For the purposes of this question, "at sea" means any territorial or international waters and the airspace above them. NOTE 29 September 2020: Pangong Tso/Pangong Lake would not be consider...
-# Forecasts: 382
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage:
-Description: In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/19-123)). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Fulton_v._City_of_Philadelphia,_Pennsylvania)). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City ([Third Circuit Court of Appeals](http://www2.ca3.uscourts.gov/opinarch/182574p.pdf), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."
-# Forecasts: 195
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 2%
-Description: Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil & gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO ([Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/turkey-illegitimate-haftar-withdraw-key-libya-areas-200722160827376.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53906360), [Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2020/08/12/congress-has-secretly-blocked-us-arms-sales-to-turkey-for-nearly-two-years/)).
-# Forecasts: 356
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 ([UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/025e-0fac7ce8f2d4-6d86444e8807-1000--2020-21-all-you-need-to-know/), [UEFA (Clubs)](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/clubs/)).
-# Forecasts: 242
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-match
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/54094363), [Sky Sports](https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/12069059/coronavirus-premier-league-concerned-by-delays-to-fans-return), [Goal](https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/will-there-be-fans-at-premier-league-matches-in-2020-21-when/1sz2evfoff4101efeqoy9hmppq), [Premier League](https://www.premierleague.com/fixtures)).
-# Forecasts: 564
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 8%
-Description: Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boris-Johnson)). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/brexit-and-covid-19-show-up-the-disunited-kingdom), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54156419), [Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-coronavirus-self-isolating-labour-covid-19-symptoms-b435681.html)).
-# Forecasts: 958
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 5%
-Description: CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State ([State.gov](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston ...
-# Forecasts: 345
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-system
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 0%
-Description: Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California ([Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russian-hackers-who-disrupted-2016-election-targeting-political-parties-again-microsoft-says/2020/09/10/301dd5fe-f36c-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html), [CBS SF BayArea](https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/09/08/san-mateo-co-voter-registrar-working-with-state-feds-to-repel-hackers-foreign-cyberattacks/), [California AB 2125](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB2125), [National Conference of State Legislatures](https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/post-election-audits635926066.aspx)). A relevant cyberattack against a federal, state, or local election system that changes vote totals and/or an election outcome for California would count. For purposes of this question, "voting system" is a system as defined by the U.S. Election Assistance Co...
-# Forecasts: 292
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 25%
-Description: CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.
-# Forecasts: 582
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tsa-checkpoint-numbers-new-pandemic-high/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020.
-# Forecasts: 697
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 92%
-Description: To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-956/93436/20190327160337558_190311%20for%20E-Filing.pdf)). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/18-956), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/), [Lexology](https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ecf5cd6d-2b66-4240-b5d9-efab3c581830), [ZDNet](https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-vs-oracle-the-next-chapter/)). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question...
-# Forecasts: 188
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutional
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 0%
-Description: After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 ([Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/explaining-texas-v-u-s-a-guide-to-the-case-challenging-the-aca/), [Law.cornell.edu](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5000A) (see §(3)(A)), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/365785-congress-repeals-obamacare-mandate-fulfilling-longtime-gop-goal)). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ([Politico](https://static.politico.com/17/86/6721f2eb435fb2512430e54c2904/220.pdf), [Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/texas-v-united-states-31)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular is...
-# Forecasts: 305
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 5%
-Description: Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history ([Montreal Gazette](https://montrealgazette.com/sports/montreal-olympics-african-boycott-of-1976-games-changed-the-world), [Dept. of State](https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/qfp/104481.htm), [History.com](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/soviets-announce-boycott-of-1984-olympics)). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population ([Daily Sabah](https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/rights-group-criticizes-ioc-over-uighurs-issue-in-china), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/25/trump-administration-china-genocide-uighurs-401581), [Olympic.org](https://www.olympic.org/beijing-2022)).
-# Forecasts: 514
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The Arab League consists of 22 member states ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-15747941), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/30/world/meast/arab-league-fast-facts/index.html), [Arab League](http://www.lasportal.org/Pages/Welcome.aspx)). As of 28 August 2020, three members other than Palestine--Egypt, Jordan, and recently the United Arab Emirates--diplomatically recognize Israel, though others could follow ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200824-after-uae-israel-deal-which-arab-nation-will-next-forge-ties), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/08/22/the-arab-countries-most-likely-to-recognise-israel), [Whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-united-states-state-israel-united-arab-emirates/)). A suspended Arab League member diplomatically recognizing Israel would count ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/12/syria-suspended-arab-league)). NOTE 2 September 2020: The question is f...
-# Forecasts: 449
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-package
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the "Next Generation EU" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed ([European Council](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/210720-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf), [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-new-boost-for-jobs-growth-and-investment/file-mff-post-2020-own-resources), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_935)). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements ([Ernst & Young](https://taxnews.ey.com/news/2020-1869-european-council-adopts-conclusions-on-recovery-plan-and-eu-budget-for-2021-2027-including-agreement-on-introduction-of-new-taxes), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_1024)). The question would resolve upon the last Member State approving the amendment. When the amende...
-# Forecasts: 196
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Tesla recently announced it will manufacture the Cybertruck at its new factory location in Austin, TX ([Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-cybertruck-price-interior-release-date-specs-news/), [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/22/21334860/tesla-cybertruck-factory-austin-texas-location-model-y), [Teslarati](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-gigafactory-austin-texas-video/), [Inverse](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/61141-tesla-cybertruck-pics-price)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.
-# Forecasts: 321
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: In late June 2020, Amazon acquired self-driving technology company Zoox for approximately $1.3 billion ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/amazon-spending-1-billion-on-zoox-will-have-to-invest-billions-more.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/07/16/amazon-zoox-deal-details-leak-and-hint-at-expensive-acquihire/#50676c1d4ec2)). While Amazon has framed the acquisition as a move into ride-hailing, there is speculation that the move could lead to greater automation of package deliveries ([Amazon](https://blog.aboutamazon.com/company-news/were-acquiring-zoox-to-help-bring-their-vision-of-autonomous-ride-hailing-to-reality), [India Times](https://www.indiatimes.com/auto/alternative/amazon-zoox-robo-delivery-518186.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2020/07/03/autonomous-delivery-will-reduce-the-cost-of-residential-package-delivery/#77928f2f4844)). An autonomous vehicle with a backup driver would count for resolution. A public ride-hailing ...
-# Forecasts: 240
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Before 14 February 2021, will former King Juan Carlos I and/or former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont return to Spain?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1740-before-14-february-2021-will-former-king-juan-carlos-i-and-or-former-catalan-president-carles-puigdemont-return-to-spain
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Former King Juan Carlos I of Spain has reportedly left Spain in light of recent controversies, while former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont has continued living abroad in exile following the 2017 independence referendum that the Spanish government declared to be illegal ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53710555), [CatalanNews](https://www.catalannews.com/politics/item/carles-puigdemont-elected-jxcat-president-with-99-3-of-votes), [AP](https://apnews.com/4f40dee005924aab99670da40122309e)).
-# Forecasts: 250
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-battery
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Recent advances in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries, could give rise to a new generation of electric vehicles ([Car and Driver](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a31409442/samsung-solid-state-battery-revealed/), [Electrek](https://electrek.co/2020/04/23/work-on-goodenoughs-breakthrough-solid-state-ev-battery-moves-forward/)) . Some companies have announced plans to debut such vehicles, even if not necessarily for mass production yet ([Road/Show](https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/toyota-solid-state-battery-electric-olympics/), [Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/toyota-may-introduce-solid-state-batteries-for-electric-cars-by-2020/)). For examples of vehicle debuts, see: [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/gms-push-to-compete-with-tesla-begins-with-cadillac-lyriq-crossover-debut-thursday.html), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/tesla-debuts-first-electric-pickup-truck-cee48fef-fccc-4390-bdc5-1dfede8a8a3e.html) . For the purposes of this question, "ma...
-# Forecasts: 249
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/), [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/)). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta.
-# Forecasts: 496
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 2%
-Description: Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)). Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#a8cbc4c9dac1cec1cbc9dcc1c7c6dbe8cfc7c7ccc2ddcccfc5cdc6dc86cb...
-# Forecasts: 262
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 10%
-Description: In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)). Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#ee8d828f9c8788878d8f9a8781809dae8981818a849b8a89838b809ac08d8183d19d9b8c848b8d9ad3bf9b8b9d9a878180cbdcdead828f9c8788878d8f9a878180) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/) .
-# Forecasts: 551
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve ([Ars Technica](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-driver-blames-autopilot-for-crash-into-police-car/), [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-agency-eyes-fatal-crash-involving-driving-car-66374234), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/technology/uber-self-driving-car-arizona.html), [Centre for International Governance Innovation](https://www.cigionline.org/articles/who-responsible-when-autonomous-systems-fail)). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question. This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1695](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1695-between-10-july-and-31-december-2020-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s) ...
-# Forecasts: 215
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combined
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-autos-electric-subsidies/china-to-cut-new-energy-vehicle-subsidies-by-10-this-year-idUSKCN225177), [Shine.cn](https://www.shine.cn/biz/auto/2006089801/), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/electric-cars-take-the-spotlight-in-chinas-post-coronavirus-stimulus-plans.html), [Inside EVs](https://insideevs.com/news/428471/china-market-sales-may-2020-nev/)). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million ([Caam.org](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/4/cate_154/con_5228367.html) [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g., [Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/21/cate_463/list_1.html), [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/) [in Chinese], [Caam.org.cn](http://...
-# Forecasts: 204
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a "chicken and egg" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC fast charge stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes ([MY EV](https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-dc-fast-charging)). The outcome will be determined using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 31 December 2022 at 5:00PM ET ([Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC)). Data on public DC fast charge stations can be found by selecting the "Advanced Filters" tab. First select "Location" on the left and set "Country" to be "United States" while keeping "State/Territory" to be "All." Then select "Fuel" on the left. ...
-# Forecasts: 197
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)). Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#f89b94998a919e919b998c9197968bb89f97979c928d9c9f959d968cd69b9795c78b8d9a929d9b8cc5a98d9d8b8c919796ddcac8bb94998a919e919b998c919796) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.c...
-# Forecasts: 977
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count. Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#3b58575a49525d52585a4f525455487b5c54545f514e5f5c565e554f1558545604484e59515e584f066a4e5e484f5254551e090b78575a49525d52585a4f525455) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/) .
-# Forecasts: 1195
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 77%
-Description: Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a "bump in the road" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial. This question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, s...
-# Forecasts: 224
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 5%
-Description: Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#94f7f8f5e6fdf2fdf7f5e0fdfbfae7d4f3fbfbf0fee1f0f3f9f1fae0baf7fbf9abe7e1f6fef1f7e0a9c5e1f1e7e0fdfbfab1a6a4d7f8f5e6fdf2fdf7f5e0fdfbfa) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://...
-# Forecasts: 909
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-sees-strong-model-y-production-deliveries-shares-rise-idUSKBN21K3A3)). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 ([Tesla](https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.
-# Forecasts: 262
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: How many total Fast Charge (>22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a "chicken and egg" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations ([Smart Energy International](https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/electric-vehicles/european-countries-with-fastest-ev-charger-adoption-revealed/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM)). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory ([EAFO](https://www.eafo.eu/alternative-fuels/electricity/charging-infra-stats)) for all of 2022, via the graph "Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2022)" when the filter for "Charger type" is set to "Fast (>22kW)" and the fil...
-# Forecasts: 253
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, "major automakers" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count. Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#791a15180b101f101a180d1016170a391e16161d130c1d1e141c170d571a1614460a0c1b131c1a0d44280c1c0a0d1016175c4b493a15180b101f101a180d101617) . To...
-# Forecasts: 366
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehicles
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 2%
-Description: Due to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the auto industry in the EU is seeking relief from CO2 emission performance standards regulations ([European Automobile Manufacturers Association](https://www.acea.be/news/article/covid-19-auto-sector-letter-to-von-der-leyen), [Europa](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en), [Electrive](https://www.electrive.com/2020/03/30/european-car-industry-lobby-groups-question-co2-targets-in-the-face-of-covid19/)). For more information on EU CO2 emission performance standards, see [REGULATION (EU) 2019/631](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32019R0631), particularly Article 4 and the annexes. The date a change would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.
-# Forecasts: 174
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehicles
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines ([Clean Technica](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/12/teslas-advantage-with-its-battery-technology-low-cost/), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/8441929c-5e43-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2022, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a [2015 Nature Climate Change study](https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf) . The Mack Institute found that there was "a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wid...
-# Forecasts: 238
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevs
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Climate change and other environmental concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-prices-are-tumbling-but-global-electric-vehicles-will-be-just-fine-says-ubs-2020-03-11), [CSP](https://www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/what-global-economic-slump-means-evs), [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using open source data provided by [EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/) for 2022, expected to be released in early 2023. The global BEV & PHEV share for 2019 was 2.5% ([EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/)). In the event that the relevant data for 2022 are not available from EV-volumes.com in 2023, this quest...
-# Forecasts: 358
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managers
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 1%
-Description: Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a), [AP](https://apnews.com/31ab8e9f5b9a467abdda53616edc72c2), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [El Universal](https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/mundo/diez-puntos-para-entender-el-sistema-de-pensiones-que-no-quieren-los-chilenos) [in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and/or operating profits would count. Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1417, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1417](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1417)). We will be analyzing the differences between forec...
-# Forecasts: 255
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets?
-URL: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1412-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-nationalizing-private-pension-fund-assets
-Platform: Good Judgment Open
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 1%
-Description: Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for the reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chile-protests-pensions/chiles-fiery-anger-fueled-by-fears-of-poverty-in-old-age-idUSKBN1XB3U8), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/06/08/chile-tinkers-with-its-ground-breaking-pensions-system), [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://www.eiu.com/industry/article/1898259973/chiles-pension-reform-makes-progress/2019-07-23), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a)). Examples of nationalization include, but are not limited to, the enactment of legislation compelling the divestiture or transfer of privately held pension funds to a public entity or the sta...
-# Forecasts: 288
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the Ethereum block gas limit be >= 25,000,000 gas in any block on April 1st 2021?
-URL: https://omen.eth.link/#/0x06c942fd737bc53571a34667b2ae3b669f1f502d
-Platform: Omen
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 98.8630%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021?
-URL: https://omen.eth.link/#/0x32848849f5b7e30ff75f57838fea8f9663c3d9de
-Platform: Omen
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 10.8673%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Uniswap V3 be launched and usable in Q1 2021? (includes mainnet or Layer2)
-URL: https://omen.eth.link/#/0x8bcf27b20670a4f32973cbf231b8904029da1ccb
-Platform: Omen
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 40.1381%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: When will the FDA approve the use of an existing, orally-administered vaccine for the prevention of COVID-19?
-URL: https://omen.eth.link/#/0x9598659e3fc7d5a618b57e94be2ac37e5d774905
-Platform: Omen
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description:
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will The Flippening happen in 2021? (Will another blockchain's market cap exceed Bitcoin's market cap in 2021?)
-URL: https://omen.eth.link/#/0xa6da2bc89a433b9cdcc7271077a119139f4d305c
-Platform: Omen
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 50.0000%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Joe Biden be the US President at the end of 2021?
-URL: https://omen.eth.link/#/0xd450b6c4db569f600cb42acc0a6cd3a140c4894b
-Platform: Omen
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 85.1032%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the outcome of the 2020 US Presidential Election for the office of President of the United States, where the winner is the one receiving the most votes from certified electors of the Electoral College, those votes having been officially counted by the United States Congress under VICE PRESIDENT MICHAEL PENCE on January 6, 2021 (per the Electoral Count Act of 1887)?
-URL: https://omen.eth.link/#/0xdbf41f1f2d28216eb4e76b9ed3856180c2daa479
-Platform: Omen
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 99.0000%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will Compound Chain be launched and usable by the end of Q2 2021?
-URL: https://omen.eth.link/#/0xe018254be84e200bfb9947dc57df8943cb2ac1b2
-Platform: Omen
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 40.0000%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021?
-URL: https://omen.eth.link/#/0xed6940e49cee029c4664d9794c04d5f9e5597632
-Platform: Omen
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 10.9519%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★☆☆☆☆
-
-Title: In 2021, will Donald Trump be barred from holding future elected office in the USA?
-URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 20.91%
-Description:
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will Kamala Harris be the first woman to become president of the United States?
-URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 73.00%
-Description: This question will settle when a woman becomes president of the United States of America.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will the USA earn more medals than they ever did during Obama's presidency (121)?
-URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 35.00%
-Description: While Barack Obama was president, the United States won: - 121 medals in 2016 - 104 medals in 2012 - 112 medals in 2008 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are canceled in 2021, this question will be resolved according to the medals obtained at the next Olympics.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: In 2021, will Joe Biden invoke the Insurrection Act?
-URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 7.77%
-Description: The Insurrection Act is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Who will be elected president of France in 2022?
-URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description:
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election?
-URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, "Le Pen" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: In France, when will the first round of the regional elections take place?
-URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description:
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000?
-URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA®ion=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA®ion=World)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will Japan or France earn more medals?
-URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled, or if they take place elsewhere than in Japan, the shares will be paid out at the following prices: France = 23 H Japan = 74 H Same = 3 H
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister?
-URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Parliamentary elections are scheduled in September 2021. The PJD (Justice and Development Party) has been in power for the last ten years. Shall the party be renamed or splinter before the elections, any personality issued for its ranks before the renaming or split shall still be considered "from PJD".
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: In Niger, who will win the (February) 2021 presidential election?
-URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: The second round of the presidential election is scheduled on February 21, 2021.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: In 2021, will Faustin-Archange Touadéra lose power in the Central African Republic?
-URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 7.92%
-Description: Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the other will be worthless (0ℍ). Touadéra, president of the Central African Republic, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we ...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria?
-URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 9.00%
-Description: Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the other will be worthless (0ℍ). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Te...
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: In January 2021, how many battle deaths will there be in the G5 Sahel countries?
-URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 8.00%
-Description: This question will be judged according to the number of "fatalities" published by ACLED ([http://www.acleddata.com](http://www.acleddata.com)) in the "Battle" category. A public dashboard with regular updates and historical data is available here: [https://acleddata.com/dashboard/#/dashboard](https://acleddata.com/dashboard/#/dashboard)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: In Congo, who will win the (March) 2021 presidential election?
-URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: A presidential election is planned on march 21, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: In Chad, who will win the (April) 2021 presidential election?
-URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: A presidential election is planned on April 11, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: In Somalia, who will win the (Feb) 2021 presidential election?
-URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: A presidential election is planned for February 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day?
-URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the "Number of commercial flights..." chart.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: In 2021, who will succeed Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister of Israel?
-URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Parliamentary elections are scheduled in March 2021.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: In 2021, how much will the arctic sea ice shrink?
-URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Follow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with this link
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany?
-URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will the FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine?
-URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description:
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Which threshold will gold prices (per ounce) reach first?
-URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 39.62%
-Description: Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the other will be worthless (0ℍ). Follow godlier prices here: [https://www.monex.com/gold-prices/](https://www.monex.com/gold-prices/)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the closing share price of GameStop (GME) on Feb. 26, 2021?
-URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: Follow GameStop's stock price here: [https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GME](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GME)
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first?
-URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 78.00%
-Description: This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the Dow Jones index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Which threshold will the French index CAC 40 hit first?
-URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 63.00%
-Description: This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the CAC 40 index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: Will the new Bond film "No Time to Die" be released in 2021?
-URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 93.00%
-Description: On January 22, MGM pushed back the film's release to October 8, 2021... 23/01/21: It doesn't matter how the movie is released - online or in theaters - as long as it is via a distribution channel approved by MGM.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: In 2021, will the Olympic Games take place?
-URL: https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: true
-Percentage: 72.00%
-Description: The Olympics Games are currently scheduled to start in Japan in July 2021... This question will resolve as "Yes" if the Olympic Games take place anywhere at anytime in 2021.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q1 2021?
-URL: https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question compares 2021:Q1 to 2020:Q1. It should be read as: “What will be the Year-over-year growth rate in Q1 2021?" The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q1, which will be published in the spring of 2021. All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1: https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey The growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q1 and 2020:Q1 nominal GDP: Growth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q1/2020:Q1 - 1) Note that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent. Finally, beware that the 2020:Q1 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q1 estimate.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2021?
-URL: https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question compares 2021:Q4 to 2020:Q4. The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q4 which will be published in 2022:Q1. All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1: https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey The growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q4 and 2020:Q4 nominal GDP: Growth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q4/2020:Q4 - 1) Note that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent. Finally, beware that the 2020:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q4 estimate.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2022?
-URL: https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question compares 2022:Q4 to 2021:Q4. The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2022:Q4, which will be published in 2023:Q1. All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1: https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey The growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2022:Q4 and 2021:Q4 nominal GDP: Growth Rate (%) = 100 * (2022:Q4/2021:Q4 - 1) Note that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent. Finally, beware that the 2021:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2022:Q14estimate.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: As of April 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?
-URL: https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on April 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) . For the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval. * Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: As of July 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?
-URL: https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on July 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) . For the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval. * Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: As of October 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?
-URL: https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on October 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) . For the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval. * Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 3 per million people?
-URL: https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published by Our World in Data here: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&country=USA®ion=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=total_cases&pickerSort=desc * Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 1 per million people?
-URL: https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published by Our World in Data here: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&country=USA®ion=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=total_cases&pickerSort=desc * Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
-
-Title: When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 0.1 per million people?
-URL: https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19
-Platform: Hypermind
-Binary question?: false
-Percentage: none
-Description: This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published by Our World in Data here: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&country=USA®ion=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=total_cases&pickerSort=desc * Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.
-# Forecasts: unknown
-Stars: ★★★☆☆
diff --git a/data/old/elicit-questions.csv b/data/old/elicit-questions.csv
deleted file mode 100644
index 549de82..0000000
--- a/data/old/elicit-questions.csv
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,353 +0,0 @@
-"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
-"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2050%20prediction%20questions%20embedded%20in%20LessWrong%20posts%20and%20comments%20this%20month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5648011363636364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4351988636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",352,143,1
-"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8205128205128206,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1794871794871794,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",234,126,1
-"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3674375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6325625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",160,104,1
-"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20without%20additional%20intervention%20from%20the%20existing%20AI%20Alignment%20research%20community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5289130434782608,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47108695652173915,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",138,96,1
-"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20arms%20race%20dynamic%20in%20the%20lead-up%20to%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.757280701754386,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.242719298245614,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",114,92,1
-"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new%20English%20Strain%20is%20at%20least%2050%%20more%20infectious%20than%20the%20currently%20dominant%20American%20strain%20of%20Covid-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6333177570093458,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3666822429906542,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",214,91,1
-"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20single%20AGI%20or%20AGI%20project%20achieve%20a%20decisive%20strategic%20advantage?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6183620689655173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38163793103448274,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",116,87,1
-"How vivid is your visual imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5068067226890757,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4931932773109243,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",119,77,1
-"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4249074074074074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5750925925925926,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",108,77,1
-"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",110,77,1
-"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20we%20build%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11789999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8821,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",100,75,1
-"How vivid is your sound imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20sound%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6116981132075472,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3883018867924528,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",106,74,1
-"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20another%20AI%20Winter%20(a%20period%20commonly%20referred%20to%20as%20such)%20before%20we%20develop%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2895876288659794,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7104123711340207,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",97,73,1
-"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%201-3%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4311607142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5688392857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",112,71,1
-"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20an%20additional%20distinct%20large%20wave%20of%20Covid-19%20infections%20in%20the%20United%20States%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5817721518987341,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4182278481012659,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",158,70,1
-"How vivid is your taste imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20taste%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25726190476190475,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7427380952380953,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",84,69,1
-"How vivid is your smell imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20smell%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25414634146341464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7458536585365854,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",82,68,1
-"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20need%20>%203%20breakthroughs%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning%20to%20get%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2538095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7461904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",84,67,1
-"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1975862068965517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8024137931034483,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",87,66,1
-"How frequently do you think in words?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7812790697674419,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21872093023255812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",86,66,1
-"Do you have an internal monologue?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8227500000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1772499999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",80,63,1
-"How good is your memory?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5229113924050633,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47708860759493665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",79,63,1
-"How vivid is your touch imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3612658227848101,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6387341772151899,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",79,62,1
-"How much control do you have over your mind?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20much%20control%20do%20you%20have%20over%20your%20mind?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45592105263157895,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5440789473684211,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",76,61,1
-"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42764705882352944,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5723529411764705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",85,57,1
-"Trump will win a second term","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20win%20a%20second%20term&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.462027027027027,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.537972972972973,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",74,54,1
-"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3156060606060606,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6843939393939393,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",66,52,1
-"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24506666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7549333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",75,52,1
-"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20""Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong""%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8951807228915662,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10481927710843375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",83,45,1
-"The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects (i.e. besides stuffy nose for a day) for >50% of people who try it","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20(i.e.%20besides%20stuffy%20nose%20for%20a%20day)%20for%20>50%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0548,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9452,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",75,41,1
-"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Having%20a%20button/prompt%20for%20Elicit%20on%20LW%20would%20increase%20usage%20by%20at%20least%205x&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6021951219512195,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3978048780487805,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",41,37,1
-"The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects for >1% of people who try it ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20for%20>1%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20215384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7978461538461539,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",65,36,1
-"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025%20bitcoin%20will%20no%20longer%20be%20the%20highest%20traded%20cryptocurrency.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5548648648648649,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44513513513513514,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",37,35,1
-"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6111904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3888095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",42,33,1
-"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity%20will%20not%20occur%20by%20the%20year%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.687142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31285714285714294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",42,34,1
-"The radvac vaccine works. That is, it immunizes against COVID, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunizes%20against%20COVID,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28800000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.712,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",50,33,1
-"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025,%20most%20of%20Russia%20will%20become%20part%20of%20the%20United%20States,%20or%20the%20reverse,%20or%20they%20will%20in%20some%20other%20manner%20become%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state,%20or%20part%20of%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.007941176470588234,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9920588235294118,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",34,32,1
-"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36911764705882355,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6308823529411764,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",34,29,1
-"The Pope will be assassinated.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope%20will%20be%20assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0303125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9696875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",32,30,1
-"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47382978723404257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5261702127659574,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",47,28,1
-"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",34,28,1
-"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38967741935483874,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6103225806451613,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",31,29,1
-"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",40,29,1
-"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin""%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9709090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",33,29,1
-"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5493617021276596,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45063829787234044,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",47,28,1
-"No military draft in the United States before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9027272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09727272727272729,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",33,28,1
-"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08806451612903227,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9119354838709677,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",31,28,1
-"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17874999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",32,28,1
-"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08678571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9132142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",28,27,1
-"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.002307692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9976923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,26,1
-"...be an environmental disaster.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2479310344827586,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7520689655172415,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",29,26,1
-"In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8062264150943396,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19377358490566043,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",53,26,1
-"Trump wins Nobel","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10552631578947368,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8944736842105263,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",38,26,1
-"California will secede from the United States before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.006764705882352942,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9932352941176471,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",34,26,1
-"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4023809523809524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5976190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",42,26,1
-"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.018846153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9811538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,25,1
-"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4684375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5315624999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",32,24,1
-"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5855882352941176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41441176470588237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",34,23,1
-"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07461538461538461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9253846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,23,1
-"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09692307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9030769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,23,1
-"The Singularity will occur by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35119999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6488,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,23,1
-"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2439285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7560714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",28,23,1
-"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",24,22,1
-"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31120000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,22,1
-"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6226923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37730769230769234,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,22,1
-"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20""Inverse%20AlphaFold""%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33909090909090905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6609090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",33,22,1
-"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8411111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15888888888888886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",27,22,1
-"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19347826086956524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8065217391304348,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",23,22,1
-"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5815384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",39,21,1
-"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7363999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,21,1
-"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6084375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39156250000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",32,21,1
-"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13119999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8688,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,21,1
-"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3745833333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6254166666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",24,21,1
-"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20482758620689656,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7951724137931034,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",29,21,1
-"For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2885185185185185,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7114814814814815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",27,21,1
-"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7019047619047619,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2980952380952381,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,21,1
-"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.994090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.005909090909090975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,21,1
-"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2782857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7217142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",35,20,1
-"The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3109375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6890625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",32,20,1
-"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34127659574468083,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6587234042553192,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",47,20,1
-"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8142857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18571428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",28,20,1
-"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,20,1
-"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15333333333333335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8466666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,20,1
-"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21636363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7836363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,20,1
-"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11681818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8831818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,20,1
-"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04739130434782608,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9526086956521739,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",23,20,1
-"Google will survive for 15 more years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8838095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.11619047619047618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,20,1
-"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07454545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9254545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,20,1
-"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9305,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,19,1
-"United States will invade Australia and take over","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,19,1
-"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5694285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4305714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",35,19,1
-"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4704761904761905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5295238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,19,1
-"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6031428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",35,18,1
-"...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.484,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.516,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,19,1
-"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8313636363636364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16863636363636358,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,19,1
-"In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8738461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12615384615384617,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,19,1
-"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using ""more dakka"", for some reasonable version of ""more dakka""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20""more%20dakka"",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20""more%20dakka""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20523809523809525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7947619047619048,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,19,1
-"In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8185714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18142857142857138,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",28,19,1
-"...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3638095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6361904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,19,1
-"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02210526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9778947368421053,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,19,1
-"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7484999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25150000000000006,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,19,1
-"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.542,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45799999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,19,1
-"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.13249999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",24,19,1
-"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7243478260869566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2756521739130434,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",23,19,1
-"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.648,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.352,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",40,18,1
-"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20""a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true"".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3281481481481482,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6718518518518518,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",27,18,1
-"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4026923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5973076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,18,1
-"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6427777777777777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35722222222222233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,18,1
-"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20""Clogged%20drainpipe""%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6434000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3565999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",50,18,1
-"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12047619047619047,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8795238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,18,1
-"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5177777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4822222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,18,1
-"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6754545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3245454545454546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,18,1
-"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03318181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9668181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,18,1
-"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08388888888888889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9161111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,17,1
-"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.017222222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9827777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,17,1
-"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.018000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.982,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,17,1
-"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2161904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7838095238095237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,17,1
-"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6933333333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30666666666666675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,17,1
-"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4717391304347826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5282608695652173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",23,17,1
-"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12789473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8721052631578947,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,17,1
-"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",23,17,1
-"aliens invade earth in 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.009444444444444445,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9905555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,17,1
-"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,17,1
-"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26894736842105266,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7310526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,17,1
-"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8395238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16047619047619055,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,17,1
-"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9531578947368421,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04684210526315791,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,16,1
-"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7770588235294117,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2229411764705883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,16,1
-"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6533333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,16,1
-"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4288888888888889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5711111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,16,1
-"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,16,1
-"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5777777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42222222222222217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,16,1
-"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.049,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.951,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,16,1
-"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20""in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19105263157894736,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8089473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,16,1
-"US presidents term limits abolished","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02235294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9776470588235294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,16,1
-"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0811764705882353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9188235294117647,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,16,1
-"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35526315789473684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6447368421052632,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,16,1
-"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20""World%20War%20III""%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20""allies""%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.933125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06687500000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,15,1
-"Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5517647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44823529411764707,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,15,1
-"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,15,1
-"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7394117647058823,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2605882352941177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,15,1
-"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.294375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.705625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,15,1
-"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6647058823529411,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33529411764705885,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,15,1
-"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.23450000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,15,1
-"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4064,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,15,1
-"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5689655172413793,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43103448275862066,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",29,15,1
-"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.926875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.073125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,15,1
-"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03705882352941177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9629411764705882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,15,1
-"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7811764705882354,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21882352941176464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,15,1
-"C still widely in use in the 2020s","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9353333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06466666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,15,1
-"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.118125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.881875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,15,1
-"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43473684210526314,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5652631578947369,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,15,1
-"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1448,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8552,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,15,1
-"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41470588235294115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5852941176470589,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,15,1
-"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28214285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7178571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,14,1
-"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47388888888888886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5261111111111112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,14,1
-"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3026315789473684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6973684210526316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,14,1
-"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,14,1
-"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17394444444444446,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8260555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,14,1
-"Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.
-","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.
-&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.111875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.888125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,14,1
-"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05941176470588236,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9405882352941176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,14,1
-"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9053333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,14,1
-"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.""%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0955,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,14,1
-"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20""Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow"".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9214285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,14,1
-"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08785714285714287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9121428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,14,1
-"By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,14,1
-"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8220000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17799999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,14,1
-"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,14,1
-"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09823529411764706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9017647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,14,1
-"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,14,1
-"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8717647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12823529411764711,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,14,1
-"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.938,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,14,1
-"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11733333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8826666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,14,1
-"Humanity still a thing in 2036","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
-"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20""spaceship""%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5135714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,13,1
-"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7066666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,13,1
-"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.40842105263157896,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.591578947368421,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,13,1
-"ETI is AGI","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8461111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15388888888888885,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,13,1
-"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20""SETI%20Winter""%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7389473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2610526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,13,1
-"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""The%20Essential%20Workers""%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4026666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5973333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,13,1
-"10 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9158333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",36,13,1
-"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.320625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6793750000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,13,1
-"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4446153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5553846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,13,1
-"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44153846153846155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5584615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
-"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20""Pilotless""%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6271428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3728571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,13,1
-"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8146153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
-"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2764285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7235714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,13,1
-"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9053333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,13,1
-"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3830769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6169230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
-"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.955,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,13,1
-"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.853125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14687499999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,13,1
-"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1469230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8530769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
-"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
-"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11076923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8892307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
-"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2978571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7021428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,13,1
-"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.040769230769230766,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9592307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
-"Trump dies of COVID-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",32,13,1
-"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9466666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,13,1
-"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.106875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.893125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,13,1
-"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20""How%20to%20create%20a%20mind"")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7324999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,13,1
-"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,13,1
-"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1336842105263158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8663157894736842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,13,1
-"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04923076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9507692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
-"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1
-"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07714285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9228571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1
-"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20""train%20it%20away""?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6315384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3684615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,13,1
-"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4607142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5392857142857144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1
-"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8566666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1
-"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1
-"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03833333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9616666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1
-"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.027333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9726666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1
-"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1
-"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9235714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1
-"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1
-"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.696,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1
-"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5107142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4892857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1
-"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.""%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6653846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33461538461538465,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1
-"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8683333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1316666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1
-"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8583333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1
-"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3707692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6292307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1
-"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.696923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.303076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1
-"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24333333333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7566666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1
-"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6083333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3916666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1
-"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3358333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6641666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1
-"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.013076923076923076,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9869230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1
-"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1
-"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49242424242424243,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5075757575757576,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",33,12,1
-"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4310526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5689473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,12,1
-"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5246666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4753333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1
-"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1
-"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,12,1
-"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.006,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1
-"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.46692307692307694,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.533076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1
-"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8407142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1
-"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7892307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21076923076923082,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1
-"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9535714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1
-"100 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.007931034482758621,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9920689655172413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",29,12,1
-"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23377083333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7662291666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",24,11,1
-"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
-"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4081818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5918181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,11,1
-"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9646153846153847,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
-"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,11,1
-"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20""same""?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20""final%20being""?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26272727272727275,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7372727272727273,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
-"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38636363636363635,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6136363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
-"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7633333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
-"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones""%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7516666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2483333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
-"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
-"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21272727272727274,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7872727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
-"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
-"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2475,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
-"50 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.016470588235294115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9835294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",34,11,1
-"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2809090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7190909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
-"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8633333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
-"Trump wins the 2020 election.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4753846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5246153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
-"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
-"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10181818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8981818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
-"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6778571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32214285714285706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
-"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33090909090909093,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6690909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
-"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45692307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.543076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
-"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.024166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9758333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
-"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5557142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4442857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
-"Trump will run for president in 2024","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20384615384615384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7961538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
-"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08923076923076924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9107692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
-"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28428571428571425,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7157142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
-"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6592857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34071428571428575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
-"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6866666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31333333333333324,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
-"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4314285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
-"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20""Grognor""%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4592307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5407692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
-"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31636363636363635,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6836363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
-"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10785714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8921428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
-"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
-"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5621428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43785714285714283,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
-"'President Mike Pence'","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.140625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.859375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,11,1
-"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7783333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22166666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
-"Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9458333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
-"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
-"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44083333333333335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5591666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
-"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4307692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5692307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
-"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.40909090909090906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
-"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5269230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47307692307692306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
-"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10285714285714287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8971428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
-"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,11,1
-"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6679999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,11,1
-"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4153846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5846153846153845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
-"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7091666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
-"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03769230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9623076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
-"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.""%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6481818181818181,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3518181818181819,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
-"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.""%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20727272727272728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7927272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
-"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31384615384615383,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6861538461538461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
-"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45307692307692304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.546923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
-"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9325,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.0675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
-"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20""do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation""?%20They%20answer%20""yes"".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17923076923076922,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8207692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,10,1
-"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44166666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5583333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,10,1
-"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09357142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9064285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,10,1
-""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.""%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11461538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,10,1
-"A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.587,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
-"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.261,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.739,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
-"Mans response primarily stems from how the system trained him","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mans%20response%20primarily%20stems%20from%20how%20the%20system%20trained%20him&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5484615384615384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45153846153846156,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,10,1
-"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5690909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4309090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
-"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20""very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2963636363636364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7036363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
-"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
-"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,10,1
-"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.789,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21099999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
-"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13142857142857142,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,10,1
-"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10916666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8908333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,10,1
-"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2907692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7092307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,10,1
-"EU to dissolve by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39454545454545453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6054545454545455,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
-"Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.467,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5329999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
-"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27785714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7221428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,10,1
-"Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years.
-
-By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20
-
-By%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7709999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2290000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
-"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
-"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.309,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6910000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
-"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
-"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,10,1
-"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8691666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,10,1
-"homosexuality criminalized in the US","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
-"At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20""anarchist""%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3681818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6318181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
-"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9258333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,10,1
-"WWIII starts before 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08857142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9114285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,10,1
-"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.750909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.24909090909090903,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
-"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4107692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5892307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,10,1
-"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17300000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
-"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6036363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
-"Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.113,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.887,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
-"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.013636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9863636363636363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
-"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.783,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
-"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11461538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,10,1
-"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.556,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44399999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
-"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.958,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
-"“China will break apart by 2030”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24600000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.754,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
-"HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9290909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
-"The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.060909090909090906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9390909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
-"What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09571428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9042857142857142,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,10,1
-"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5272727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4727272727272728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
-"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7066666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,10,1
-"Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.
-
-http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.
-
-http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.198,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
-"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26384615384615384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7361538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,10,1
-"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
-"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8790909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
-"Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7791666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,10,1
-"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
-"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3346153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6653846153846155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,10,1
-"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3463636363636363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6536363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/old/elicit-questions.json b/data/old/elicit-questions.json
deleted file mode 100644
index 3010163..0000000
--- a/data/old/elicit-questions.json
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,7868 +0,0 @@
-[
- {
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- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "numforecasters": 143,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- }
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- {
- "title": "Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
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- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20without%20additional%20intervention%20from%20the%20existing%20AI%20Alignment%20research%20community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
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- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20arms%20race%20dynamic%20in%20the%20lead-up%20to%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new%20English%20Strain%20is%20at%20least%2050%%20more%20infectious%20than%20the%20currently%20dominant%20American%20strain%20of%20Covid-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20single%20AGI%20or%20AGI%20project%20achieve%20a%20decisive%20strategic%20advantage?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",
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- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "How vivid is your visual imagination?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- }
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- {
- "title": "Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- }
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- {
- "title": "How vivid is your sound imagination?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20sound%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20another%20AI%20Winter%20(a%20period%20commonly%20referred%20to%20as%20such)%20before%20we%20develop%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%201-3%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- }
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- {
- "title": "There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How vivid is your taste imagination?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20taste%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
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- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How vivid is your smell imagination?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20smell%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",
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- {
- "title": "How frequently do you think in words?",
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- },
- {
- "title": "Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",
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- {
- "title": "How good is your memory?",
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- {
- "title": "Do you have an internal monologue?",
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- {
- "title": "How vivid is your touch imagination?",
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- {
- "title": "How much control do you have over your mind?",
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- },
- {
- "title": "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",
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- {
- "title": "Trump will win a second term",
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- {
- "title": "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",
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- "title": "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",
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- "title": "Will the post \"Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong\" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",
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- "title": "The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects (i.e. besides stuffy nose for a day) for >50% of people who try it",
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- "title": "The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects for >1% of people who try it ",
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- "title": "By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",
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- "title": "A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",
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- "title": "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",
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- "title": "The radvac vaccine works. That is, it immunizes against COVID, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots",
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- "title": "Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",
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- "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",
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- "title": "The Pope will be assassinated.",
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- "title": "\"There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin\" --Bill Walker, BBC",
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- "title": "PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",
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- "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",
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- "title": "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",
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- "title": "The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",
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- "title": "Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",
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- "title": "No military draft in the United States before 2020.",
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- "title": "Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ",
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- "title": "No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",
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- "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020?",
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- "title": "Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",
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- "title": "Trump wins Nobel",
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- "title": "Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",
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- "title": "...be an environmental disaster.",
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- "title": "California will secede from the United States before 2021",
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- "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",
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- "title": "Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",
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- "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",
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- "title": "\"I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.\"",
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- "title": "The Singularity will occur by 2050.",
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- "title": "For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",
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- "title": "Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",
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- "title": "50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",
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- "title": "Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",
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- "title": "Will there be an \"Inverse AlphaFold\" by end of 2025?",
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- "title": "By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",
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- "title": "PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",
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- "title": "Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",
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- "title": "Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",
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- "title": "...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ",
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- "title": "TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",
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- "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots",
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- "title": "In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",
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- "title": "For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?",
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- "title": "Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",
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- "title": "Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "title": "The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",
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- "title": "Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",
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- "title": "Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "title": "The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.361Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "numforecasters": 20,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15333333333333335,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8466666666666667,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.361Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "numforecasters": 20,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "...all-things-considered, be good for the world.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8142857142857143,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.18571428571428572,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.361Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "numforecasters": 20,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16333333333333333,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8366666666666667,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.361Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 21,
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- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.34127659574468083,
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- "name": "No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.361Z",
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- {
- "title": "Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2782857142857143,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7217142857142858,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.361Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "numforecasters": 20,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21636363636363637,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7836363636363637,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.361Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "numforecasters": 20,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11681818181818182,
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- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8831818181818182,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.361Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "numforecasters": 20,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07454545454545454,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9254545454545454,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.361Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "numforecasters": 20,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Google will survive for 15 more years",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8838095238095238,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.11619047619047618,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.361Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "numforecasters": 20,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7243478260869566,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.2756521739130434,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.361Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "numforecasters": 19,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39685714285714285,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6031428571428572,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.361Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "numforecasters": 18,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5694285714285714,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4305714285714286,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.362Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "numforecasters": 19,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8675,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.13249999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.362Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "numforecasters": 19,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using \"more dakka\", for some reasonable version of \"more dakka\"",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20\"more%20dakka\",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20\"more%20dakka\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.20523809523809525,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7947619047619048,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.362Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "numforecasters": 19,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.484,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.516,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.362Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "numforecasters": 19,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3638095238095238,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6361904761904762,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.362Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "numforecasters": 19,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8313636363636364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.16863636363636358,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.362Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "numforecasters": 19,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "United States will invade Australia and take over",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.362Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "numforecasters": 19,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8006666666666666,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19933333333333336,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.362Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "numforecasters": 19,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8364285714285714,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.1635714285714286,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.362Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "numforecasters": 19,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.0695,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9305,
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.362Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "numforecasters": 19,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4704761904761905,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5295238095238095,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.362Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "numforecasters": 19,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.542,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.45799999999999996,
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- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.362Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "numforecasters": 19,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7484999999999999,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25150000000000006,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.362Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "numforecasters": 19,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- {
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- "title": "Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.",
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- "title": "The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",
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- "title": "Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",
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- "title": "'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",
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- "title": "“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",
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- "title": "aliens invade earth in 2023",
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- "title": "Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030",
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- "title": "Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.",
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- "title": "Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",
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- "title": "It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ",
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- "title": "My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028",
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- "title": "A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",
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- "title": "Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.",
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- "title": "Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ",
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- "title": "If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",
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- "title": "A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",
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- "title": "By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",
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- "title": "US presidents term limits abolished",
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- "title": "An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.",
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- "title": "Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)",
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- "title": "Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable \"in ten thousand years, or so\"",
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- "title": "Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",
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- "title": "The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.",
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- "title": "Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",
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- "title": "Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",
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- "title": "Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",
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- "title": "Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",
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- "title": "Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",
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- "title": "The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",
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- "title": "Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",
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- "title": "Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "title": "There will NOT be a \"World War III\" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's \"allies\" and NATO and/or western europe)",
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- "title": "If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?",
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- "title": "If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?",
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- "title": "If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",
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- "title": "Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.",
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- "title": "A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020",
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- "title": "USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.",
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- "title": "C still widely in use in the 2020s",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "title": "The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",
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- "title": "The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",
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- "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",
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- "title": "The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "title": "The message begins with \"Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow\". Should we execute it?",
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- "title": "Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?",
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- "title": "By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.",
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- "title": "Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",
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- "title": "A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",
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- "title": "North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",
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- "title": "Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.\r\n",
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- "title": "Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.",
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- "title": "The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.",
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- "title": "By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "title": "\"Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.\" --James Miller",
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- "title": "\"by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system\"",
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- "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI \"spaceship\" be larger than 1m in size?",
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- "title": "Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)",
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- "title": "We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.",
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- "title": "ETI is AGI",
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- "title": "There be a \"SETI Winter\" before First Contact.",
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- "title": "Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",
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- "title": "Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.",
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- "title": "Humanity still a thing in 2036",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "title": "All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.",
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- "title": "Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "title": "Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
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- "title": "Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson",
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- "title": "Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.",
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- "title": "Truly \"Pilotless\" air travel will be the standard in 2050.",
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- {
- "title": "The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1469230769230769,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8530769230769231,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Trump dies of COVID-19",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06625,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.93375,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44153846153846155,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5584615384615385,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3375,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6625,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, \"How to create a mind\")",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20\"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind\")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2675,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7324999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "\"The Essential Workers\" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"The%20Essential%20Workers\"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4026666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5973333333333333,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3830769230769231,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6169230769230769,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4446153846153846,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5553846153846154,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "10 million",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08416666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9158333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1853846153846154,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8146153846153846,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.045,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.955,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05333333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9466666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2978571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7021428571428572,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.106875,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.893125,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11076923076923077,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8892307692307693,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.175,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.825,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1825,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8175,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- }
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- {
- "title": "If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to \"train it away\"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20\"train%20it%20away\"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6315384615384615,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.3684615384615385,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3707692307692308,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6292307692307693,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "1 year continuous human habitation of the moon",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15928571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8407142857142857,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.027333333333333334,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9726666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49242424242424243,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5075757575757576,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.304,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.696,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- "title": "If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",
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- "title": "Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",
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- "title": "Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
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- "title": "the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky",
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- "title": "In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.",
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- "title": "North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",
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- "title": "Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",
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- "title": "'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin",
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- "title": "\"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.\" -lukeprog",
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- "title": "We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ",
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- "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.",
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- "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035",
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- "title": "Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.",
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- "title": "At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site",
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- "title": "Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",
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- "title": "Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020",
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- "title": "Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030",
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- "title": "100 million",
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- "title": "The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.",
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- "title": "With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ",
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- "title": "Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",
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- "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",
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- "title": "Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",
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- "title": "\"At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.\"",
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- "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",
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- "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",
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- "title": "Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the \"same\"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some \"final being\"?",
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- "title": "'President Mike Pence'",
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- "title": "By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ",
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- "title": "Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.",
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- "title": "Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.",
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- "title": "The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.",
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- "title": "\"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.\"",
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- "title": "China will land a man on Mars by 2050.",
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- "numforecasts": 13,
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- "title": "Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "title": "\"within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.\" --Dennis Mangan",
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- "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.",
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- "title": "In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 11,
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- {
- "title": "Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
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- "name": "No",
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- "title": "Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.",
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- "title": "SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.",
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- "title": "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "title": "50 million",
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- "title": "They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040",
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- "title": "Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "title": "Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.",
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- "title": "Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election",
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- "title": "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "title": "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
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- "title": "Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.",
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- {
- "title": "At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030",
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- {
- "title": "“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson",
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- "name": "No",
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- {
- "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045",
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- {
- "title": "Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "stars": 1
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- },
- {
- "title": "\"there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.\" - Scott Adams",
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- "stars": 1
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- {
- "title": "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_",
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- "title": "Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "title": "The LW user account \"Grognor\" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20\"Grognor\"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
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- "stars": 1
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- {
- "title": "People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "title": "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
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- {
- "title": "At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7633333333333333,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 12,
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- {
- "title": "Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 11,
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- {
- "title": "Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
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- {
- "title": "By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
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- "stars": 1
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- {
- "title": "Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
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- }
- },
- {
- "title": "\"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones\" --Marc Andreessen",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones\"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 12,
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- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5269230769230769,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47307692307692306,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
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- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03769230769230769,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9623076923076923,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Trump will run for president in 2024",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7961538461538462,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
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- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.467,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5329999999999999,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Mans response primarily stems from how the system trained him",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mans%20response%20primarily%20stems%20from%20how%20the%20system%20trained%20him&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5484615384615384,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.45153846153846156,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7066666666666667,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.29333333333333333,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 10,
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- }
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- {
- "title": "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.198,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.802,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26384615384615384,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7361538461538462,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- {
- "title": "EU to dissolve by 2040.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- {
- "title": "Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 12,
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- }
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- {
- "title": "Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "stars": 1
- }
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- {
- "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.34375,
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- "name": "No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
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- "numforecasts": 16,
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- "stars": 1
- }
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- {
- "title": "We ask ETI \"do we live in a simulation\"? They answer \"yes\".",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20\"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation\"?%20They%20answer%20\"yes\".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "No",
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- }
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- {
- "title": "P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44166666666666665,
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- "name": "No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 12,
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- {
- "title": "\". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.\" --Dan King",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.\"%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.364Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
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- {
- "title": "Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as \"very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?\"",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20\"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7036363636363636,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.364Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 11,
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- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.204,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.796,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.364Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22083333333333333,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7791666666666667,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.364Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.364Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 10,
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- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.10916666666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8908333333333334,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.364Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13142857142857142,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8685714285714285,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.364Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13083333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8691666666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.364Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "homosexuality criminalized in the US",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.025,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.975,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.364Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. \r\n\r\nBy “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20\r\n\r\nBy%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7709999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.2290000000000001,
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.364Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09571428571428571,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9042857142857142,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.364Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6036363636363636,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39636363636363636,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.364Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.113,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.887,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.364Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.013636363636363636,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9863636363636363,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.364Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.556,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44399999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.364Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07090909090909091,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9290909090909091,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.364Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.060909090909090906,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9390909090909091,
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.364Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.958,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.364Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3346153846153846,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6653846153846155,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T12:54:16.364Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
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- "title": "“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”",
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\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/old/fantasyscotus-questions.json b/data/old/fantasyscotus-questions.json
deleted file mode 100644
index 833784b..0000000
--- a/data/old/fantasyscotus-questions.json
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,1221 +0,0 @@
-[
- {
- "title": "In United States v. Collins, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-collins/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "74.23% (72 out of 97) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 97,
- "stars": 2
- }
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- {
- "title": "In Jones v. Mississippi, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/jones-v-mississippi/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "33.33% (22 out of 66) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3333333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6666666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:11.479Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In Borden v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/borden-v-united-states/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "51.92% (27 out of 52) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5192307692307693,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
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- "name": "No",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:12.028Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 52,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "10.34% (9 out of 87) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.10344827586206896,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.896551724137931,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:12.683Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 87,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In Niz-Chavez v. Barr, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/niz-chavez-v-barr/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "28.00% (14 out of 50) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:13.217Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 50,
- "stars": 2
- }
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- {
- "title": "In California v. Texas (Standing), the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/california-v-texas-standing/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "72.13% (44 out of 61) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "stars": 2
- }
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- {
- "title": "In Texas v. California (Severability), the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/texas-v-california-severability/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "30.16% (19 out of 63) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:14.301Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "stars": 2
- }
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- {
- "title": "In Van Buren v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/van-buren-v-united-states/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "14.04% (8 out of 57) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8596491228070176,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:14.847Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In Nestle USA, Inc. v. Doe I, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/nestle-usa-inc-v-doe-i/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "19.51% (8 out of 41) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1951219512195122,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8048780487804879,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:15.281Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In Cargill, Inc. v. Doe I, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/cargill-inc-v-doe-i/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "15.79% (6 out of 38) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15789473684210525,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8421052631578947,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:15.713Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In CIC Services, LLC v. Internal Revenue Service, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/cic-services-llc-v-internal-revenue-service/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "66.67% (28 out of 42) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6666666666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33333333333333337,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:16.147Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In Edwards v. Vannoy, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/edwards-v-vannoy/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "36.00% (18 out of 50) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.64,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:16.680Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 50,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In Henry Schein Inc. v. Archer, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/henry-schein-inc-v-archer/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "6.25% (2 out of 32) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.0625,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9375,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:17.107Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In Collins v. Mnuchin, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/collins-v-mnuchin/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "84.85% (28 out of 33) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8484848484848485,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.1515151515151515,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:17.532Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In Mnuchin v. Collins, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/mnuchin-v-collins/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "63.64% (21 out of 33) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6363636363636364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.36363636363636365,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:17.958Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In Pham v. Guzman Chavez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/pham-v-guzman-chavez/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "34.38% (11 out of 32) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.34375,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65625,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:18.386Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In AMG Capital Management, LLC v. FTC, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/amg-capital-management-llc-v-ftc/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "25.81% (8 out of 31) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25806451612903225,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7419354838709677,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:18.809Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In BP P.L.C. v. Mayor and City Council of Baltimore, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/bp-plc-v-mayor-and-city-council-of-baltimore/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "22.22% (8 out of 36) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2222222222222222,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7777777777777778,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:19.239Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "30.00% (3 out of 10) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:19.650Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In United States v. Cooley, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-cooley/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "0.00% (0 out of 15) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:20.068Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In Caniglia v. Strom, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/caniglia-v-strom/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "30.77% (4 out of 13) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3076923076923077,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6923076923076923,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:20.477Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In Goldman Sachs Group Inc. v. Arkansas Teacher Retirement System, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/goldman-sachs-group-inc-v-arkansas-teacher-retirement-system/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "72.73% (8 out of 11) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7272727272727273,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.2727272727272727,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:20.890Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In TransUnion LLC v. Ramirez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/transunion-llc-v-ramirez/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "10.00% (1 out of 10) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:21.304Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In National Collegiate Athletic Association v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "84.62% (11 out of 13) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8461538461538461,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15384615384615385,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:21.723Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In American Athletic Conference v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/american-athletic-conference-v-alston/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "55.56% (5 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5555555555555556,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4444444444444444,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:22.137Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 9,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In Yellen v. Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/yellen-v-confederated-tribes-of-the-chehalis-reservation/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "25.00% (1 out of 4) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:22.546Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 4,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In Sanchez v. Mayorkas, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/sanchez-v-mayorkas/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "0.00% (0 out of 5) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:22.957Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 5,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In Alaska Native Village Corporation Association v. Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/alaska-native-village-corporation-association-v-confederated-tribes-of-the-chehalis-reservation/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "100.00% (4 out of 4) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:23.367Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 4,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In United States v. Gary, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-gary/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "100.00% (3 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:23.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In Greer v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/greer-v-united-states/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "0.00% (0 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:24.189Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In Minerva Surgical Inc. v. Hologic Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/minerva-surgical-inc-v-hologic-inc/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:24.597Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 2,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In City of San Antonio, Texas v. Hotels.com, L.P., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/city-of-san-antonio-texas-v-hotelscom-lp/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:25.006Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 2,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In Guam v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/guam-v-united-states/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "0.00% (0 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:25.413Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In Thomas More Law Center v. Becerra, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/thomas-more-law-center-v-becerra/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:25.826Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 2,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In Americans for Prosperity Foundation v. Becerra, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/americans-for-prosperity-foundation-v-becerra/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:26.235Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 2,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In HollyFrontier Cheyenne Refining, LLC v. Renewable Fuels Association, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/hollyfrontier-cheyenne-refining-llc-v-renewable-fuels-association/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 1,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:26.648Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 2,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In United States v. Palomar-Santiago, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-palomar-santiago/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:27.057Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 2,
- "stars": 2
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- },
- {
- "title": "In PennEast Pipeline Co. v. New Jersey, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/penneast-pipeline-co-v-new-jersey/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "0.00% (0 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:27.469Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In Mahanoy Area School District v. B.L., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/mahanoy-area-school-district-v-bl/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "100.00% (3 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 1,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:27.878Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 2
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- },
- {
- "title": "In Department of Justice v. House Committee on the Judiciary, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/department-of-justice-v-house-committee-on-the-judiciary/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "0.00% (0 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:28.294Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 9,
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- {
- "title": "In United States v. Arthrex Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-arthrex-inc/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "82.35% (14 out of 17) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:28.712Z",
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- "numforecasts": 17,
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- {
- "title": "In Carr v. Saul, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/carr-v-saul/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "27.78% (5 out of 18) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:29.135Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "stars": 2
- }
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- {
- "title": "In Smith & Nephew Inc. v. Arthrex Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/smith-nephew-inc-v-arthrex-inc/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "81.25% (13 out of 16) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8125,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.1875,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:29.712Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In Arthrex Inc. v. Smith & Nephew Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/arthrex-inc-v-smith-nephew-inc/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "14.29% (2 out of 14) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14285714285714285,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8571428571428572,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:30.134Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In Davis v. Saul, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/davis-v-saul/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "14.29% (2 out of 14) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14285714285714285,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8571428571428572,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:30.552Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "stars": 2
- }
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- {
- "title": "In Lange v. California, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/lange-v-california/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "35.14% (13 out of 37) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35135135135135137,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6486486486486487,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:30.978Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In Trump v. Sierra Club, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/trump-v-sierra-club/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "66.67% (10 out of 15) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6666666666666666,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33333333333333337,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:31.396Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In Barr v. Dai, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/barr-v-dai/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "35.29% (6 out of 17) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35294117647058826,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6470588235294117,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:31.811Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In National Association of Broadcasters v. Prometheus Radio Project, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/national-association-of-broadcasters-v-prometheus-radio-project/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "16.67% (2 out of 12) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16666666666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8333333333333334,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:32.225Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In Barr v. Alcaraz-Enriquez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/barr-v-alcaraz-enriquez/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "53.33% (8 out of 15) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5333333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4666666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:32.640Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In Wolf v. Innovation Law Lab, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/wolf-v-innovation-law-lab/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "100.00% (4 out of 4) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:33.043Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 4,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In Brnovich v. Democratic National Committee, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/brnovich-v-democratic-national-committee/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "0.00% (0 out of 22) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:33.465Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In Arizona Republican Party v. Democratic National Committee, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/arizona-republican-party-v-democratic-national-committee/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "3.57% (1 out of 28) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03571428571428571,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9642857142857143,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:33.891Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "stars": 2
- }
- }
-]
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/old/foretold-questions.json b/data/old/foretold-questions.json
deleted file mode 100644
index d30bc4e..0000000
--- a/data/old/foretold-questions.json
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,1469 +0,0 @@
-[
- {
- "title": "Hours of 80,000 Hours podcast content released",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/0926981c-1cc8-4e21-a3e4-865a3c544e67",
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- "description": "",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.347Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "% global rate of \"$1.90 a day\" poverty in 2030",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/e1ca8cc6-33a4-4e38-9ef3-553a050ba0a9",
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- {
- "title": "A bioengineering project kills at least five thousand people by 2023-02-15",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/9386c0c2-d8df-4e17-9aba-98b2b60c6608",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.347Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 4,
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- {
- "title": "A bioengineering project kills at least five people by 2023-02-15",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/ecd31a5b-75ae-4785-89f9-6be85ade3af0",
- "platform": "Foretold",
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- "options": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.348Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "stars": 2
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- {
- "title": "How many papers will cite \"Logical Induction\" by Garrabrant, S. et al. at the end of 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/12d6442f-3f73-43af-a5b5-de66df236bde",
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- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.348Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "stars": 2
- }
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- {
- "title": "How many papers will cite \"Risks from Learned Optimization in Advanced Machine Learning Systems\" by Hubinger, E. et al. at the end of 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/85769e44-27fe-4f28-aff2-16ffc735c573",
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- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.348Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "stars": 2
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- {
- "title": "Will GiveWell renew the grant to the Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention?",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/be2b184b-9162-453b-a31a-f31204388324",
- "platform": "Foretold",
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- "options": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.348Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1.5,
- "stars": 2
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- {
- "title": "By the end of 2020, what % of US hens will live in cage-free housing?",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b5077bdb-25ff-4027-9a41-3dd5e78e08ac",
- "platform": "Foretold",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.348Z",
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- {
- "title": "Will SB 592 clear the California state Assembly?",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/d97e690d-baeb-4e45-bf48-dca41535e1e1",
- "platform": "Foretold",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.349Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 2,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "5 cities with at least 50k population implement approval voting by 2022",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b5ef0f81-18c4-42fa-864e-e8dc0d9ea8d6",
- "platform": "Foretold",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
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- {
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- "probability": 0.755,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.349Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 7.5,
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- "title": "If Keir Starmer is leader of Labour in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election?",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/e06b7c2f-a385-4c3c-9fa9-00787ac6aed3",
- "platform": "Foretold",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.32,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:37.097Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 11.5,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a second Brexit referendum announced before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2461fab4-c594-49fd-9b2a-acdfc52356ba",
- "platform": "Foretold",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:37.097Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 5,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the tuition fee cap for UK students in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/fbc91180-f338-449d-a795-234ac42854ec",
- "platform": "Foretold",
- "description": "",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:37.097Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "If there is a soft Brexit, what will be the average yearly GDP growth of the UK in the following five years?",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/f3d44e2b-4d2a-47bd-acbd-61cab5e6a126",
- "platform": "Foretold",
- "description": "",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:37.097Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "If there is a hard Brexit, what will be the average yearly GDP growth of the UK in the following five years?",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/8221741f-ac27-4651-bf2c-7a887fc82313",
- "platform": "Foretold",
- "description": "",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:37.098Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be mean UK broadband download speeds in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/fb8780cd-e2b3-4435-bf50-c46fed1db5a8",
- "platform": "Foretold",
- "description": "",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:37.098Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 2
- }
- }
-]
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/old/frontpage.json b/data/old/frontpage.json
deleted file mode 100644
index 4c63a5d..0000000
--- a/data/old/frontpage.json
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,52695 +0,0 @@
-[
- {
- "title": "Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity, if either occur by year 2300?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/agi-preceeds-lev/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nWill artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity, if either occur by year 2300?\nAn anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years.\nFor the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects. \nThis question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)).\nSuccessful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator.\nIf no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before 2300-01-01, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.22999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:10:01.782Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 147,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2200-01-01T23:34:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T23:36:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will online poker die by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/)\nPluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train.\nIn 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/)\nIn 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says)\n“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note.\nAccording to [https://www.pokerscout.com/](https://www.pokerscout.com/), as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had >1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours.\nWill online poker die by 2030?\nThis question resolves negatively if at resolution time, there are at least two real money poker sites intended for humans with over 1000 cash players online at some point in the previous month, where one can play Texas Holdem with blinds of at least $10. Note that the 1000 players can be at any stakes. \nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than two such sites.\nIf there are no sources tracking the number of online cash players simultaneously, then this resolves negatively if there are at least two such sites with a table at $10 stakes or above, and one can be seated at such a table within a minute of requesting. \nThe rules of Texas Holdem that are playable must be the same as the standard rules in 2020. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:30:14.616Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 209,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-09T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-12-07T01:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T01:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "DJT runs for POTUS in 2024",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A223",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-10-04T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5459/psilocybin-not-schedule-i--2036/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There is a considerable difference of opinion around the safety and potential medical use of psilocybin. In 2020, Psilocybin is Schedule I, the same category as Heroin and the most restrictive category of the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act)\n[This article](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6007659/) discusses aspects of the debate.\nWill Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?\nA credible source will need to post a link to a DEA source similar to [this one](https://www.justice.gov/archive/ndic/pubs6/6038/) which mentions psilocybin in some category other than Schedule I. This question will resolve ambiguously if the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act) is repealed and another law defines a similarly regulated category, or if the DEA ceases to classify drugs.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:23:12.656Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 59,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-27T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-10-16T22:54:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-03-16T22:54:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9591/tau-variant-by-tau-day-628/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Tau (τ) is proposed as a circle constant, the ratio of a circle's circumference by its radius; its value, 6.283185..., is twice that of the [most commonly used constant, π](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pi).\nIn honor of half-tau, March 14 (3/14 in American notation) is noted as Pi Day by various overlapping groups such as mathematicians, nerds, geeks and people who frequent prediction aggregation/tracking websites. Some even more delightfully pedantic geeks, who contend that pi is wrong and want a pretext to eat twice as much pie, propose [tau day](https://tauday.com/) as a celebration on June 28 (6/28).\nTau is also a [Greek letter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_alphabet) coming after ο, π, ρ, σ, which suggests it could be the name of a future named variant of SARS-COV-2 [declared by the World Health Organization (WHO)](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/) - although two letters, ν and ξ, have been skipped so far.\nPrior to the current Omicron, variants Alpha and Delta were particularly notable, quickly becoming the predominant strain at their respective times. Beta and Gamma had some minor impact, and the others don't seem to have been very noteworthy - Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, Theta, Iota, Kappa, Lambda and Mu.\nWill there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?\nThis question will resolve positive if the WHO has named any variant as \"tau\" or any subsequent letter of the Greek alphabet by June 28, 2022.\nThe point of the question is to predict about a future named variant using Tau Day as an excuse. Therefore, it still counts if, for whatever reason, the WHO skips the letter tau and goes straight to upsilon (or phi, chi...) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:46:56.270Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-12T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-29T12:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7382/non-transitory-inflation-in-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "\"The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. It is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket of goods and averaging them. Changes in the CPI are used to assess price changes associated with the cost of living.\" ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp))\nThe question concerns the likelyhood of the year-over-year U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy (\"Core CPI\") being above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months until December 2023.\nThe \"Core CPI\" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: [CUUR0000SA0L1E](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E)).\nWill the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?\nWe will use the not-seasonally-adjusted figures (series [CUUR0000SA0L1E](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E)) for resolution.\nThis question resolves positively if the YoY Core CPI rises above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months between August 2021 and December 2023, included.\nThis question resolves negatively if otherwise.\n[EDIT] Sylvain 2021-09-20: Clarified that we'll use not-seasonally-adjusted figures and that the clock starts in August 2021.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:11:16.033Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 122,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-23T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T20:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The Ohio Senator elected in 2022 is a Democrat other than Tim Ryan",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A88",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-01-25T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes.\nChile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-scale producer](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). In 2019, Chile provided [18,000 tonnes of lithium](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) to market and Argentina behind that with 6,400. \nThe U.S geographical survey estimates that Bolivia has over [9 million tonnes](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) of identifiable lithium resources in its salt flats. So far, Bolivia has been producing [400 tonnes of lithium](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) in a private test site, which now should be able to scale quickly due to the change in political leadership. \nAustralia, which currently holds the record in annual lithium production at [42,000 tonnes in 2019](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/), has a total estimated lithium reserve of [2,800,000 tonnes](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/), almost ⅓ of the reserves in Chile, and less than twice as much as Argentina. As Bolivia enters the market, the dynamics of production and price could change dramatically.\nThe number of exports and interest in the lithium triangle could dramatically increase as the prices of lithium fall. High labor costs and protected union jobs, with an average yearly salary of [62,636 US Dollars](https://gradaustralia.com.au/on-the-job/salaries-and-benefits-for-graduates-in-the-mining-sector) in Australia, make production an expensive affair. In 2019, lithium demand [fell 19%](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf), bringing prices down with it. \n\"Several established lithium operations postponed capacity expansion plans. Junior mining operations in Australia [ceased production](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf) altogether.\"\nLow prices in lithium aren't necessarily daunting to South American producers, for whom labor costs are extremely low at approximately [6,148 US dollars a year in Argentina](http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=10&loctype=1&job=39&jobtype=1) in mining positions, and an average [12,726 US dollars a year in Chile](https://www.erieri.com/salary/job/miner/chile/santiago#:~:text=The%20average%20pay%20for%20a,CLP%207%2C174%2C468%20and%20CLP%2011%2C750%2C775.). With lower transport costs to the United States as well, this might become a more attractive option than Australia in the future, both for consumers and producers.\nLUT-Augsburg researchers attempting to model the amount of lithium left, to understand demand and production dynamics, found with increasing uncertainty that there could be anywhere from [30-95 million tonnes of lithium reserves left](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/15/how-long-will-the-lithium-supply-last/).\n\"The researchers modeled four lithium supply scenarios based on the estimates. In their worst-case forecast, no additional lithium resources will be discovered. That would leave humanity 26 Mt of lithium. If the policies ( recycling, V2G, second-life) and only 3 billion electric vehicles on the road were matched with just 26 Mt of lithium, but recycling efforts would only grow slowly, battery manufacturers will close shops even before 2040.\"\nIn this scenario, with only 2.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves, Australian production would drop off more quickly than that of the lithium triangle. \nWill the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if the amount of lithium mine production between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia is greater than the mine production from Australia before the end of 2030. Data will be provided through Statista, which has current data on both the countries with the [greatest lithium reserves](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/) as of 2019, as well as data on [lithium production by country](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) ranging from 2014-2019. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if data is no longer available through Statista and no other credible source can be found, or if lithium demand by the transportation industry drops below 1 kilotonne. Demand in 2019 was at approximately [17 kt](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) in comparison.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:27:14.369Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:49:06Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-12-31T22:45:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T22:45:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": ">=52 Dem-held seats after 2022 Senate elections",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A172",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-06-04T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At close of business on 4 May 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 March 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2229-at-close-of-business-on-4-may-2022-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-16-march-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its May meeting is scheduled for 3-4 May 2022.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Lower",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Same",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:01:45.303Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 247,
- "numforecasters": 95,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the next recession in the US happen by Q4 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-next-recession-in-the-us-happen-by-q4-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 in at least one quarter between Q4 2021 and Q4 2022 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product\nThis market will resolve as soon as the conditions above are satisfied for any of the quarters in the range, or when the data for Q4 2022 is released.\n\nPlease note, that the data in the earliest Gross Domestic Produce report is labelled by BEA as “Advance Estimate” and will be considered to resolve this market. The data might be revisioned during the following quarter in next estimates however, any revisions to the data made after the release of the Advance Estimate will not be considered for this market.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.3091622800523109923002692271753882",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.6908377199476890076997307728246118",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.518Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "58",
- "liquidity": "3322.60",
- "tradevolume": "1909.19",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0xCdE5b9F5450f4a8dA9d18385044d97DfbDf9584c"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 July 2022, will the US impose sanctions on any Chinese person or entity for actions related to the COVID-19 pandemic?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2051-before-1-july-2022-will-the-us-impose-sanctions-on-any-chinese-person-or-entity-for-actions-related-to-the-covid-19-pandemic",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Whether the United States will impose sanctions against China for its actions related to the COVID-19 pandemic is a topic of growing debate ([Yahoo](https://news.yahoo.com/rubio-pushes-for-new-china-sanctions-amid-questions-over-coronavirus-lab-leak-theory-210036093.html), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/wuhan-lab-leak-sanctions-republicans-a2b98782-17f6-4d9c-b016-8da0885796e1.html), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-02/lab-leak-theory-s-revival-risks-upending-any-u-s-china-detente)). For the purposes of this question, sanctions could be on an individual who is a citizen or national of the People's Republic of China or an entity organized under the laws of the People's Republic of China (e.g., [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/17/asia/us-hong-kong-china-sanctions-intl-hnk/index.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-xinjiang-sanctions/u-s-sanctions-two-more-chinese-officials-over-alleged-xinjiang-abuses-idUSKBN2BE289), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-beijing-south-china-sea-coronavirus-pandemic-china-01a64686a1b740b919af7b9d32d1c295)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:05:18.348Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 398,
- "numforecasters": 183,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One of the biggest problems with cryptocurrencies right now is their volatility. So-called 'stablecoins' aim to solve this by maintaining a stable price, usually compared to an asset like the US Dollar. \nThe currency Dai, created by the organisation [MakerDAO](https://makerdao.com/en/) and running on the [Ethereum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum) blockchain, is a popular stablecoin that tries to always be worth $1. Instead of being backed by a reserve of dollars, Dai can be created by anyone by locking up some ether (or other cryptocurrencies) as collateral for a loan in Dai. The ether is only released when the user pays back their loan, plus a Stability Fee. Dai holders can also earn the Dai Savings Rate which is funded by the fees. The Stability Fee and Dai Savings Rate are adjusted to keep the value of Dai at $1.\nIts predecessor Sai (formerly called Dai) has successfully kept a stable price throughout 2018 and (as of December 2019) still maintains it, despite volatility in the price of ether. The new version, Multi-Collateral Dai, was released in November 2019. \nWill Multi-Collateral Dai (or a future version of it) be worth around $1 consistently up to July 2023?\nThis resolves negatively if either Dai is worth over $1.10 continuously for any 2 week period or if it is worth less than $0.90 continuously for any 2 week period before 12:00 AM GMT on the 15th July 2023, according to a website like [Coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/multi-collateral-dai/). \nIf MakerDAO has an Emergency Shutdown, it also resolves negatively.\nIt resolves positively otherwise.\nIf a newer version is released, then this question will be about the new version if and only if there is a direct way to exchange Dai for the new coin at a 1:1 rate (which was the case when Sai was upgraded to Multi-Collateral Dai).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:49:31.693Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 163,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-07-14T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/09/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of recorded Nay votes cast by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) on confirmation of nominees to the U.S. Cabinet.\nFor purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions –\nThe Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs --\nAnd the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative --\nAnd the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management & Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science & Technology Policy and Small Business Administration.\nThis market shall close when the Senate has voted on whether to confirm at least one nominee to all of the above positions. Should more than one confirmation vote take place for the same Cabinet position before the market closes, all of Senator Hawley's Cabinet confirmation votes shall be considered when resolving this market. Should Senator Hawley cease to be a Senator before at least one vote has been taken on all nominees, this market will close at the time of his departure.\nThe results of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/09/2021 2:43 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: This market concerns Senator Hawley's votes on all of President Biden's Cabinet nominees to the listed positions, including those that have already been confirmed.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "12 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "13",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "14",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "15",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "16",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "17",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "18",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "19",
- "probability": 0.08256880733944953,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "20",
- "probability": 0.7889908256880733,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "21",
- "probability": 0.045871559633027525,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "22",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "23 or more",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:55:58.518Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 2243492
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "12 or fewer, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A nuclear exchange could cause a [nuclear winter](http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/RobockNW2006JD008235.pdf) – a release of black carbon into the atmosphere which would [according to some studies](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013EF000205), result in the blocking the Sun’s thermal energy. This would lower temperatures regionally and globally for several years, and open up new holes in the ozone layer protecting the Earth from harmful radiation, reduce global precipitation by about 10%, trigger crop failures, and result in widespread food shortages.\nAccording to [some models](http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/ToonRobockTurcoPhysicsToday.pdf), the smoke would rapidly engulf the Earth and form a dense stratospheric smoke layer. The smoke from a war fought with strategic nuclear weapons would quickly prevent up to 70% of sunlight from reaching the surface of the Northern Hemisphere and 35% of sunlight from reaching the surface of the Southern Hemisphere. Such an enormous loss of warming sunlight would produce Ice Age weather conditions on Earth in a matter of weeks. For a period of 1-3 years following the war, temperatures would fall below freezing every day in the central agricultural zones of North America and Eurasia.\nThis could leave some survivors in parts of Australia and New Zealand, but they would be in a very precarious situation and the threat of extinction from other sources would be great. Whether a nuclear winter could cause extinction is currently unclear. Some [models consider total extinction very unlikely](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1775342), and suggest parts of the world would remain habitable.\nThese studies consider what is currently the worst-case nuclear exchange, namely, that between the US and Russia. However, It is possible that a future nuclear arms race someday leads to larger stockpiles or more dangerous nuclear weapons than existed at the height of the Cold War. In this case, chances of a nuclear extinction might be higher than they currently are.\nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of nuclear weapons?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/). Now it is asked,\nGiven that nuclear catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves ambiguous if a global nuclear catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. It resolves positively if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 5% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. The question resolves negative if a global nuclear catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:26:55.030Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 228,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-22T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-11-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-06-15T22:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will total fire activity in the Amazon for January through September 2022 exceed the total for January through September 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2239-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-for-january-through-september-2022-exceed-the-total-for-january-through-september-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/brazils-election-offers-hope-for-the-rainforest), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/19/deforestation-in-brazils-amazon-rainforest-hits-15-year-high.html), [Global Landscapes Forum](https://news.globallandscapesforum.org/54461/amazon-fires-2021-moderate-risk-forecasted-but-fuel-enough-for-one-of-earths-biggest-bonfires/)). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its \"Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts\" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts through 30 September 2022 exceeds the total through 30 September 2021 ([Global Fire Emissions Database](http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html)). Through 30 September for 2021, the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts totaled 198,341.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:01:23.031Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 180,
- "numforecasters": 122,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the price of Bitcoin on 30 November 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2202-what-will-be-the-price-of-bitcoin-on-30-november-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The outcome will be determined using the last price dated 30 November 2022 (PT) as reported by [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $30,000.00",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $30,000.00 and $50,000.00, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $50,000.00 but less than $70,000.00",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $70,000.00 and $90,000.00, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $90,000.00 but less than $110,000.00",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "$110,000.00 or more",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:02:35.144Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 318,
- "numforecasters": 116,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $30,000.00, Between $30,000.00 and $50,000.00, inclusive, More than $50,000.00 but less than $70,000.00, Between $70,000.00 and $90,000.00, inclusive, More than $90,000.00 but less than $110,000.00, $110,000.00 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Hillary Clinton win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-hillary-clinton-win-the-us-2024-democratic-presidential-nomination",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Hillary Clinton wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1440934903525090498517633676617131",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8559065096474909501482366323382869",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.517Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "19",
- "liquidity": "1503.10",
- "tradevolume": "3354.58",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x233c912cA6b86B4D6ae3c9d514eFE2dD51745f04"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6476/musks-roadster-visited-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) is an electric sports car that served as the dummy payload for the February 2018 Falcon Heavy test flight and became an artificial satellite of the Sun.\nIn August 2019, as the Roadster completed its first orbit around the Sun, Musk stated that [SpaceX may one day launch a small spacecraft](https://www.inverse.com/article/58602-where-is-starman-elon-musk-teases-spacex-mission-to-catch-up-with-roadster) to catch up with the Roadster and take photographs.\nWill Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by any spacecraft before 2050?\nThe question will resolve positively if any active spacecraft approaches the Tesla Roadster to within a distance of 10,000 kilometers before December 31st of 2049, 23:59 UTC.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:43:51.901Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T10:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will we find life on Mars by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6632/will-we-find-life-on-mars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars),\nThe possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms.\nLife on Mars would not necessarily be indicative of a separate evolutionary lineage. The [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia) proposes that life may have spread from Earth to Mars, or vice versa.\nIf life does exist on Mars, it is likely to be small and simple, since the surface of Mars is barren, and no large multicellular life has been seen so far by any of the Mars rovers. The meteorite fragment [Allan Hills 84001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Hills_84001) was examined in 1996 and was reported to have structures resembling microscopic fossils of bacteria. Wikipedia notes, \"scientific consensus is that 'morphology alone cannot be used unambiguously as a tool for primitive life detection.' Interpretation of morphology is notoriously subjective, and its use alone has led to numerous errors of interpretation.\"\nWill we find life on Mars by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions. If by 2050, this has not happened, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:50:49.876Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 160,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Oregon gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7590/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Oregon-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Oregon gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that the candidate is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed representation, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:03:35.922Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 23246
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will employees at Amazon's Bessemer, Alabama, warehouse vote in the affirmative to unionize in their next scheduled election?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2245-will-employees-at-amazon-s-bessemer-alabama-warehouse-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-unionize-in-their-next-scheduled-election",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "In early January, the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) announced a new unionization vote for workers at an Amazon warehouse in Alabama, with ballots due by 25 March 2022 and counting scheduled for 28 March 2022 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/11/amazon-union-election-in-alabama-to-begin-in-february.html), [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2022/1/11/22878457/amazon-bessemer-alabama-union-election-redo-february-fourth)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:01:04.039Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 180,
- "numforecasters": 87,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 100 questions?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\nMetaculus does not currently uses the mean forecast (although it is displayed on the website). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the average forecast.\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 100 questions.\nWill mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 100 questions?\nUsing the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the average forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance. \nThe set of questions used will be the next 100 binary questions to resolve, which close after this question opens.\nIf the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.64,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:31:50.484Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-09-30T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1631/will-cuba-still-be-a-communist-state-in-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since 1965, Cuba has been governed by the Communist Party of Cuba. Cuba is one of few remaining Marxist–Leninist socialist states, where the role of the vanguard Communist Party is enshrined in the Constitution. \nAs of December 09 2018, only the following countries are one-party states in which the institutions of the ruling Communist Party and the state have become intertwined (and they are generally adherents of Marxism–Leninism in particular): People's Republic of China, Republic of Cuba, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Socialist Republic of Vietnam, and Democratic People's Republic of Korea.\nWill Cuba still be a communist state as measured by having a below 50 score on the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/)?\nThis question resolves positive if the 2023 [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) assigns an index value below 50, indicating \"repressed economic activity\". Currently, Cuba [has an index value of 31.9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom), meaning a negative resolution requires an 18.1 increase in the index value. This resolves ambiguous if the Heritage Foundation, or the Wall Street Journal does not publish the Index of Economic Freedom values for 2023.\nEdit (14/12/18) the resolution criteria now depends on the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) assigned to Cuba in 2023.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.93,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.06999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:28:29.464Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 542,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-12T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-11-25T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-05-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": ">=50 Dem-held seats after 2022 Senate elections",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A170",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-06-04T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a cryptocurrency be created using a quantum random number generator by 2036?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7437/quantum-random-number-cryptocurrency/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [physicsworld](https://physicsworld.com/a/fast-quantum-random-number-generator-could-advance-cryptography-on-the-cheap/), \nWhen numbers are used to securely encode information, the randomness of those numbers is crucial: a string of truly random numbers is one that a hacker can never guess. In classical physics, however, all processes – even chaotic ones – are deterministic, making true randomness impossible. [..] In the quantum world, in contrast, “there are these fundamentally non-deterministic processes,” says Nathan Walk, a physicist at Freie Universitat Berlin, Germany\n[Proof of Stake (PoS)](https://eth.wiki/en/concepts/proof-of-stake-faqs) is a type of consensus algorithm used by cryptocurrencies. Unlike Proof of Work (used by Bitcoin), PoS does not incentivize extreme amounts of energy consumption. PoS uses a pseudo-random process to select the validator to create the next block.\nScott Aaronson, a theoretical computer scientist with a focus on quantum computing, wrote in his [blog](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4317) that\nbecause of my certified randomness protocol, which shows how a sampling-based quantum supremacy experiment could almost immediately be repurposed to generate bits that can be proven to be random to a skeptical third party (under computational assumptions). This, in turn, has possible applications to proof-of-stake cryptocurrencies and other cryptographic protocols.\nRandom number generators have been shown to be vulnerable in the past and the future of PoS cryptocurrencies may rely on their security. During the [Hot Lotto fraud scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hot_Lotto_fraud_scandal),\nIt came to light in 2017, after Eddie Raymond Tipton, the former information security director of the Multi-State Lottery Association (MUSL), confessed to rigging a random number generator that he and two others used in multiple cases of fraud against state lotteries. Tipton was first convicted in October 2015 of rigging a $14.3 million drawing of MUSL's lottery game Hot Lotto.\nAdditionally, as part of the [Bullrun program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullrun_%28decryption_program%29#Methods), the NSA was reported to have a backdoor in the Dual_EC_DRBG random number generator.\nWill a cryptocurrency be created using a quantum random number generator by 2036?\nThis question will resolve positively if a credible media, company, or scientific source reports that a cryptocurrency has been created using a quantum random number generator and uses quantum random number generation as part of its normal functioning on an ongoing basis.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:14:33.630Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2032-12-31T21:46:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-12-31T21:45:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Boris Johnson remain British prime minister through May?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7665/Will-Boris-Johnson-remain-British-prime-minister-through-May",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Boris Johnson holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom without interruption until the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/31/2022 7:01 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.59,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.41000000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:05:47.911Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 171419
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be an exponential improvement in the bounds on diagonal Ramsey by 2060?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7523/exponential-improvement-on-diagonal-ramsey/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One of the most famous questions in combinatorics is the diagonal Ramsey question. Given some n, what is the largest N for which the complete graph on N can have its edges colored red and blue so that there is no monochromatic clique of size n? The lower bound is and the upper bound is ; see [https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.09251](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.09251) for the best known upper bound.\nWill there be an exponential improvement in the bounds on diagonal Ramsey by 2060?\nThis question will resolve positively in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal proving, for some constant , a bound or , for all sufficiently large .\nIf there is no such proof by 2060-01-01, the question will resolve negative. If a proof is published, but not confirmed by peer review by 2060-01-01, the question may wait to resolve until peer review has reached a consensus.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:18:23.541Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-15T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-08-12T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4524/will-the-us-conduct-a-nuclear-test-explosion-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Trinity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_%28nuclear_test%29) was the first nuclear weapon test. The test was conducted above ground on July 16, 1945 on what is now known as the White Sands Missile Range. Since Trinity, over 2,000 nuclear tests have been [conducted](https://www.fastcompany.com/3049706/visualized-every-haunting-nuclear-bomb-detonation-since-1945) world wide. \nThe US has conducted over 1,000 nuclear tests. The final test to be conducted by the US, code-name [Divder](https://www.ctbto.org/specials/testing-times/23-september-1992-last-us-nuclear-test), took place on September 23, 1992. Soon after, Gearge H. W. Bush [declared a moratorium](https://www.thereaganvision.org/u-s-nuclear-weapons-testing-moratorium/) on nuclear weapons testing. In 1996, the US signed the [Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty](https://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/comprehensive-nuclear-test-ban-treaty-ctbt/) which bans any type of nuclear explosion. To date, the treaty has not been ratified by the appropriate countries (including the US) and has [not yet entered into force](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_Nuclear-Test-Ban_Treaty).\nThe decision to end nuclear weapons testing has not been recommended by everyone. One of the [core missions](https://www.energy.gov/nnsa/missions/maintaining-stockpile) of the National Nuclear Security Administration is to \"ensure the United States maintains a safe, secure, and reliable nuclear stockpile through the application of unparalleled science, technology, engineering, and manufacturing.\" This is largely accomplished through [super computers](https://www.discovermagazine.com/technology/testing-nuclear-weapons-is-more-important-than-ever). However, some [argue](https://www.heritage.org/arms-control/report/keeping-nuclear-testing-the-table-national-security-imperative) that weapons tests are still needed to accomplish this mission.\nMore recently, there have been [reports](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-administration-considered-a-nuclear-bomb-test-washington-post-2020-5) that the Trump administration has considered performing a nuclear test explosion in response to potential low-yield tests from Russia and China.\n\nWill the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?\n=========================================================\n\nThis question will resolve positively to verification of a nuclear explosion by the CTBTO, the UN, or if an official government statement from the US is issued confirming the test. The question will resolve as ambiguous if two or more other countries accuse the US of performing a nuclear test explosion but there is no verification. Otherwise, this question will resolve negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:06:14.386Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 91,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-02T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T13:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T13:02:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6603/autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [LVCC Loop](https://www.lvloop.com/lvccloop) is a public transit project created by The Boring Company using Tesla vehicles in dedicated tunnels/roads. [Testing](https://www.torquenews.com/video/boring-company-start-tests-february-free-rides) of the system is scheduled to start in early 2021 with human drivers, with testing using automated systems planned later on in 2021.\nThis project allows self-driving vehicles to be demonstrated in a carefully controlled environment.\nWill the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?\nThis question will resolve as yes if before 2023, regular operation of the LVCC loop includes at least 1 full month in which at least 90% of vehicles in the system have no human drivers according to press reports in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal or Washington Post posted to the discussion section below. There should also be no fines paid by The Boring Company in that month due to [failure to transport users](https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/16/21519692/elon-musk-boring-company-vegas-loop-less-impressive-promised) (fines paid for reasons other than lack of ability to transport passengers do not count towards judgement of this question). \nFrom the article above: \"There are financial consequences if The Boring Company can’t actually shuttle as many people as promised with the Convention Center Loop. It may miss out on more than $13 million of its construction budget. It will also be penalized $300,000 for every trade show that it doesn’t move an average of 3,960 passengers per hour for 13 hours, to a maximum of $4.5 million in fines, according to TechCrunch.\"\nThis implies the system must carry 52K passengers/day during peak trade show hours to avoid fines.\nIf fines are waived because there are regulatory limitations on how many passengers are allowed in the system, TBC must operate up to those regulatory limits.\nFor this question to be resolve yes, TBC must operate within the terms of its original contract or any additional regulatory limits imposed upon it.\nEither way, 90% of the vehicles in the system should be operating without driver for this question to judged yes.\nDetermination of those criteria will be made according to articles posted to the comment section of this question. \nIf no such articles are posted that document autonomous operation at the capacity promised or within regulatory limits, this question resolves as no.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:49:36.942Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 115,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-02T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-15T22:50:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-03-15T22:52:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Robert Caro's fifth and final volume of his Lyndon Johnson biography be published during his lifetime?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3244/will-robert-caros-fifth-and-final-volume-of-his-lyndon-johnson-biography-be-published-during-his-lifetime/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "American journalist and author [Robert A. Caro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Caro) (born October 30, 1935) has for the last decades been working on The Years of Lyndon Johnson, a multi-volume biography of the former US President. The work is planned to consist of five volumes, the first four of which were published in 1982, 1990, 2002, 2012, respectively.\nWhen will the fifth volume be published? Here's how [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Years_of_Lyndon_Johnson#Planned_book_five) summarizes the publication estimates given at various points since 2011:\nIn November 2011, Caro estimated that the fifth and final volume would require another two to three years to write. In March 2013, he affirmed a commitment to completing the series with a fifth volume. As of April 2014, he was continuing to research the book. In a televised interview with C-SPAN in May 2017, Caro confirmed over 400 typed pages as being complete, covering the period 1964–65; and that once he completes the section on Johnson's 1965 legislative achievements, he intends to move to Vietnam to continue the writing process.\nIn an interview with The New York Review of Books in January 2018, Caro said that he was writing about 1965 and 1966 and a non-chronological section about the relationship between Johnson and Bobby Kennedy. Asked if he still planned to visit Vietnam soon, Caro replied: \"Not yet, no. This is a very long book. And there's a lot to do before that's necessary. I'm getting close to it now.\" In December 2018, it was reported that Caro is still \"several years from finishing\" the volume.\nThe question resolves positive if and only if Caro's fifth and final volume of The Years of Lyndon Johnson becomes available for order (not pre-order) on [amazon.com](http://amazon.com) while Caro is still alive.\nIf the fifth book is not intended to be the last, the question resolves negative if the book intended to be the last one isn't published during Caro's lifetime, and positive if it is. If it's unclear whether the fifth book is intended to be the last one, the question resolves ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:44:00.133Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 130,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 New Mexico Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7731/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-Mexico-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of New Mexico.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Mark Ronchetti",
- "probability": 0.7068965517241378,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rebecca Dow",
- "probability": 0.17241379310344826,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Gregory Zanetti",
- "probability": 0.06034482758620689,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Karen Bedonie",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jay Block",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ethel Maharg",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Louie Sanchez",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Sanchez",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Steve Pearce",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kelly Fajardo",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:08:55.353Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 2780
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Mark Ronchetti, Rebecca Dow, Gregory Zanetti, Karen Bedonie, Jay Block, Ethel Maharg, Louie Sanchez, John Sanchez, Steve Pearce, Kelly Fajardo"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Georgia gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7386/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.6435643564356436,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.3564356435643564,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:00:30.834Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 75550
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will James Bedford be revived or emulated before 2200?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3332/will-james-bedford-be-revived-or-emulated-before-2200/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[James Bedford](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Bedford) was the first person to be cryopreserved, and has been in preservation since 1967. He is currently preserved at [Alcor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcor_Life_Extension_Foundation).\nHis preservation was rather primitive and late:\nBedford's body was frozen a few hours after his death due to natural causes related to his cancer. […] Compared to those employed by modern cryonics organizations, the use of cryoprotectants in Bedford's case was primitive. He was injected with a solution 15% dimethyl sulfoxide and 85% ringers solution, a compound once thought to be useful for long-term cryogenics […].\nA longer evaluation of his state of preservation in 1991 can be found [here](https://www.alcor.org/Library/html/BedfordCondition.html).\nBecause he presents a minimum standard for cryopreservations, and because of his symbolic importance, this question asks: Will James Bedford be reuscitated before 2200?\nFor the purposes of this question, the revival of James Bedford must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person.\nRelated questions:\n---[“Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be reuscitated before 2200?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-reuscitated-before-2200/) \n---[“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:45:28.527Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 80,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-23T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2199-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.\nOne task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common [public-key](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public-key_cryptography) encryption (and signature) scheme, [RSA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_%28cryptosystem%29), relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, [DSA signatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Signature_Algorithm) and [Diffie–Hellman key exchange](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffie%E2%80%93Hellman_key_exchange), are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.) \nFor a precise question we'll ask:\nBy 2030, will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime? \nResolution is positive if by Jan 1, 2030 there exists a reasonable existence proof of a computing system that can be employed to perform this task for < $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for < $1000 USD. We'll assume 2018 dollars for this.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:14:14.208Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 172,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4433/if-biden-becomes-president-will-there-be-an-expansion-of-the-keystone-pipeline-system-of-at-least-100-km-in-length-by-the-end-of-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Keystone Pipeline system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline) is an oil pipeline in Canada and the United States, beginning operations in 2010.\nThe fourth phase, referred to as Keystone XL, attracted opposition from environmentalists and was eventually denied a permit by the Obama administration in 2015. Under Trump, a permit was granted again, though construction has not yet started.\nIn May 2020, Biden claimed that if elected, [he will cancel the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/biden-kxl-1.5574515).\nIf Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the Keystone Pipeline system be extended by at least 100 km between his inauguration and the end of 2024?\nOnly the length of pipeline built on US territory will count for this question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:04:35.149Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 160,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-31T09:59:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-18T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of flying a military aircraft over the territory of and/or the territorial waters surrounding the main island of Taiwan without its permission before 1 September 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2169-will-taiwan-publicly-accuse-the-people-s-republic-of-china-of-flying-a-military-aircraft-over-the-territory-of-and-or-the-territorial-waters-surrounding-the-main-island-of-taiwan-without-its-permission-before-1-september-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has been consistently sending military aircraft into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) with growing numbers of aircraft, though not its national airspace ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/chinas-taiwan-military-incursions-test-the-limits-of-airspace/a-59398039), [France 24](https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20211002-taiwan-slams-largest-ever-incursion-by-chinese-into-air-defence-zone), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/china-fighter-jets-will-fly-over-taiwan-declare-sovereignty-state-media-says-1583109)). For the purposes of this question, \"territorial waters\" means the sea within 12 nautical miles of the shore of the main island of Taiwan.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:03:34.058Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 300,
- "numforecasters": 152,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Curve suffer an exploit by March 31st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-curve-suffer-an-exploit-by-march-31st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Curve suffers an exploit between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Rekt News leaderboard, currently available at https://rekt.news/leaderboard/. \n\nIf Curve is listed on the resolution source as a protocol having suffered an exploit during the aforementioned market duration time, regardless of the size or ranking, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIn the case there is ambiguity over the validity of Rekt's Leaderboard, the project's primary communication channels (e.g. Twitter), and other credible crypto publications will be referenced by the arbiters of UMA's Optimistic Oracle.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the protocol is listed on the website.\n\nThe final check for this market will be on April 1, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. If the resolution source is unavailable, it will be checked every 24 hours, and if still unavailable a week later, the market will resolve to “No.”\n\nOnly exploits which have a date listed on the Rekt News Leaderboard between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive) will count.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.06584943906801271164184443305131825",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9341505609319872883581555669486817",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.518Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "23",
- "liquidity": "5552.15",
- "tradevolume": "17995.48",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x8E3215578EC93F6EC232162C270b1cFc79FE8e46"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2023, will the Conservative Party in the United Kingdom elect a new leader?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2261-before-1-january-2023-will-the-conservative-party-in-the-united-kingdom-elect-a-new-leader",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Pressure is mounting on Prime Minister Boris Johnson in the wake of various scandals ([Sky News](https://news.sky.com/story/downing-street-parties-no-10-changes-position-on-any-pm-covid-fines-being-made-public-as-tory-mp-calls-for-johnsons-resignation-12530285), [The National](https://www.thenational.wales/news/19809573.boris-johnsons-year-scandal-broken/)). The current rules for electing the leader of the Conservative Party were introduced in 1998 ([Parliament.uk](https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN01366), [Conservative Party Constitution](https://public.conservatives.com/organisation-department/202101/Conservative%20Party%20Constitution%20%20as%20amended%20January%202021.pdf), see Schedule 2).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, Michael Gove",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, Jeremy Hunt",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, Sajid Javid",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, Priti Patel",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, Dominic Raab",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, Rishi Sunak",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, Liz Truss",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, Tom Tugendhat",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, Nadhim Zahawi",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, someone else",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.29,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:00:32.359Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 101,
- "numforecasters": 79,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, Michael Gove, Yes, Jeremy Hunt, Yes, Sajid Javid, Yes, Priti Patel, Yes, Dominic Raab, Yes, Rishi Sunak, Yes, Liz Truss, Yes, Tom Tugendhat, Yes, Nadhim Zahawi, Yes, someone else, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Utah?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7532/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Utah",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Utah U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nFor purposes of this market, a candidate who does not represent either the Republican, Democratic, Libertarian, or Green Parties shall be considered an Independent.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.9509803921568627,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Independent",
- "probability": 0.0392156862745098,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:01:59.834Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 20473
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Independent, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Trump is elected POTUS in 2024",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A72",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-01-14T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 worldwide will be reported as of 28 July 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2191-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-worldwide-will-be-reported-as-of-28-july-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/)). The data for 28 July 2022 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 29 July 2022.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 6.0 million",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 6.0 million and 6.5 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 6.5 million but fewer than 7.0 million",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 7.0 million and 7.5 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 7.5 million but fewer than 8.0 million",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "8.0 million or more",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:02:46.040Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 246,
- "numforecasters": 65,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 6.0 million, Between 6.0 million and 6.5 million, inclusive, More than 6.5 million but fewer than 7.0 million, Between 7.0 million and 7.5 million, inclusive, More than 7.5 million but fewer than 8.0 million, 8.0 million or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to a [Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/38_of_voters_think_biden_has_dementia) 38% of likely voters believe that Joe Biden is suffering from some form of dementia, including 20% of Democrats. Evidence for dementia has come from his age and various recorded instances of Biden misremembering details or misspeaking. At 77 years old, if elected, Joe Biden will be the oldest president during inauguration in United States history.\nFrom [a Washington Post editorial](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/12/its-fair-speculate-whether-biden-is-mentally-fit-be-president/),\nThere is plenty of cause for concern. Biden recently announced “I think we can win back the House” and promised to ban the “AR-14.” He mistook Super Tuesday for “Super Thursday,” and forgot the words of the Declaration of Independence, saying “We hold these truths to be self-evident. All men and women are created, by the, you know, you know the thing.” In South Carolina, he misstated what office he was running for, declaring “My name’s Joe Biden. I’m a Democratic candidate for the United States Senate.” On three occasions last month, Biden declared he was arrested in South Africa trying to visit Nelson Mandela in prison — an incident his campaign later admitted never happened. He earlier described meeting a Navy captain in Afghanistan, but The Post reported that “almost every detail in the story appears to be incorrect.” He claimed to have worked with Chinese leader “Deng Xiaoping” on the Paris Climate Accord (Deng died in 1997)/. He claimed during a debate that “150 million people have been killed [by guns] since 2007” (which would be nearly half the U.S. population). He said he met with Parkland victims while he was vice president even though the shooting took place after he left office. He has declared that Democrats should \"choose truth over facts” and that “poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids.” He pledged to use biofuels to power “steamships.” He repeatedly gets confused about what state he is in; called “Fox News Sunday” anchor Chris Wallace “Chuck”; said his late son Beau “was the attorney general of the United States”; and confused former British prime minister Theresa May with the late British prime minister Margaret Thatcher.\nSome, however, have argued that his cognitive decline is overstated. In December 2019, Biden's doctor released [a statement](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/joe-biden-is-a-healthy-vigorous-77-year-old-male-his-doctor-declared/2019/12/17/c9d3b3e8-20f5-11ea-bed5-880264cc91a9_story.html) saying that Biden was a \"healthy, vigorous’ 77-year-old fully capable of taking on the role of president.\" Others have pointed to [Biden's stutter](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/01/joe-biden-stutter-profile/602401/) as the primary explanation for his gaffes, rather than age-related cognitive decline. \nAt one press conference, Biden [said to a reporter](https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/505562-biden-must-release-results-of-his-cognitive-decline-tests-voters-need-to), \"I’ve been tested. I’ve been tested constantly. [...] I can hardly wait to compare my cognitive capability to the cognitive capability of the man I’m running against.\"\nThis question asks, will an announcement be made before January 1st 2023 that Joe Biden received an official diagnosis of some form of dementia?\nResolution is determined by credible media reports, including in the case the announcement is post mortem.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:13:15.526Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 571,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-29T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Zora airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-zora-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Zora will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.3416997877373721540504480327257244",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.6583002122626278459495519672742756",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.517Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "56",
- "liquidity": "2502.18",
- "tradevolume": "2619.12",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x19e7767Ce7CbE5FEb6E49aFf23E806A773B0d3A5"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Did former New England Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez commit suicide?",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/did-former-new-england-patriots-tight-end-aaron-hernandez-commit-suicide-19060",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "On April 19, 2017, former New England Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez, in prison with a life sentence for the murder of Odin Lloyd, was found hanging in his jail cell and pronounced dead. Five days earlier Hernandez had been acquitted in a double murder case (the homicides of [Daniel de Abreu and Safiro Furtado](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/aaron-hernandez-not-guilty-in-2012-double-homicide/)). Although Hernandez's death was officially ruled a suicide, his fiancee and lawyers have questioned that conclusion.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes. Hernandez killed himself.",
- "probability": 0.9672599583106107,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No. Someone else killed Hernandez.",
- "probability": 0.032740041689389265,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:09:13.886Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes. Hernandez killed himself., No. Someone else killed Hernandez."
- },
- {
- "title": "Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1385/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-psilocybin-be-a-clinically-approved-treatment-for-end-of-life-anxiety-by-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is the second in a [three-part series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--qualia-research-institute) of questions suggested by the [Qualia Research Institute](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/), with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always interesting [QualiaComputing.com](https://qualiacomputing.com/)\nPsilocybin, the active compound that gives magic mushrooms their magic, is classified as a Schedule 1 drug by the FDA, making legal research very time-consuming and expensive. Like MDMA, it is a psychedelic drug that has well-documented effects on a number of behavioral disorders, and yet is categorized by the government as a highly addictive, unsafe substance with no conceivable medicinal use. It is also in the public domain, and therefore virtually impossible to profit from.\nDespite the fact that academics must pay over [13 times the price of the drug as its sold on the street,](https://qz.com/1235963/scientists-who-want-to-study-psychedelic-mushrooms-have-to-pay-7000-per-gram/) research in support of finding a way to market continues. And it cannot come fast enough for patients with fatal diagnoses, whose struggles with anxiety and depression are magnified exponentially by their illnesses, and for whom even a single dose can be transformative.\nFrom [the Atlantic, December 2016:](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2016/12/the-life-changing-magic-of-mushrooms/509246/)\nA pair of randomized, blinded studies published Thursday in The Journal of Psychopharmacology provide the most robust evidence to date that a single dose of psilocybin can provide relief from the anxiety and gloom associated with cancer for at least six months.\nRoughly 40 percent of people with cancer suffer from a mood disorder, which increases their risk of suicide and impairs treatment. Evidence they can be helped by antidepressants is weak. “People are facing their own mortality, their own demise,” said Roland Griffiths, a professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine and the lead author of one of the studies. “That’s a very special and quite poignant vulnerability that many people have in facing life-threatening illnesses.” And while some see the laissez faire approach to governing as a positive for research regulation, others believe the regressive Department of Justice could [stand in the way](https://www.theverge.com/2017/6/28/15880260/trump-jeff-sessions-fda-mdma-psychedelic-drug-safety-research)\n“I do feel very optimistic,\" says Rick Doblin, executive director of psychedelic research nonprofit MAPS, a leading funder of psychedelic research. \"One of the Trump administration's main things is lower regulation. They're pro business and pro making it easier for Big Pharma to get drugs through the FDA. And that benefits us.\"\nBut the FDA isn’t as far up the food chain as other influential agencies. DEA licenses are required for psychedelic research. And Trump has given Attorney General Sessions plenty of leeway in drug policy, says Erik Altieri, executive director of marijuana-focused nonprofit NORML. “It seems that the people really calling the shots are those far closer to Trump than those running the FDA,” says Altieri. “The proof will be in the pudding here about who actually sways Trump's opinion, and what he will be willing to tolerate.”\nLast year, Business Insider’s Erin Brodwin reported that experts believe the timeline is almost [certainly a decade.](http://www.businessinsider.com/when-psychedelics-approved-for-mental-illness-depression-2017-1)\n\"I'm absolutely sure that, within ten years, psilocybin will be an accepted treatment for depression,\"David Nutt, the director of the neuropsychopharmacology unit in the division of brain sciences at Imperial College London told me last month. \nSo will we hit the mark? By January 1st, 2027, will psilocybin be an accepted treatment for end-of-life anxiety/depression? Positive resolution is by FDA approval in the US or MHRA approval in the UK.\nThe team at the Qualia Research Institute have generously gotten the ball rolling by providing their own prediction that it is 75% likely the question will resolve positive.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.64,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:21:39.742Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 304,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-30T01:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-08-28T05:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:01:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The lower cloud layer of Venus (47.5–50.5 km) is [an exceptional target for exploration due to the favorable conditions for microbial life,](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783) including moderate temperatures and pressures (∼60°C and 1 atm), and the presence of micron-sized sulfuric acid aerosols.\nRecently, scientists have discovered [phosphine gas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phosphine) in [the atmosphere of Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Venus) that was earlier [proposed as a biosignature gas in exoplanet atmospheres](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783).\nWill life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?\nThe question will resolve positive based on strong and conclusive evidence of an extraterrestrial life on Venus. We will apply here the Sagan standard \"extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence\" therefore the discovery must be beyond any reasonable doubt.\nThe question will resolve negative if no evidence of life on Venus is found or the evidence remains inconclusive.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/) \n---[Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/) \n---[If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:19:50.677Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 299,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Every space geek loves Mars. Mars gets [all the robots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_artificial_objects_on_Mars) as well as [all the movies](https://www.ranker.com/list/the-best-mars-movies/all-genre-movies-lists).\nBut whither Venus? Where’s the love for our beautiful goddess neighbor who apparently welcomed the Russian Venera-13 lander by crushing it to death within hours. Informed [speculation on Quora](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-current-condition-of-the-Venera-probe-that-landed-on-the-surface-of-Venus-in-1982) suggests that:\nThe [Venera 13] lander's seals and pressurized chambers were breached the day of the landing, so all of the material and equipment that the Venera was designed to protect was melted and boiled off decades ago.\nYikes. Okay, maybe that's why we don't drop by more often.\nVenus is often compared to a literal hellscape. We know about the surface temperatures that melt lead, the sulfuric acid clouds, the poisonous metal snow, etc.\nBut Venus is also interesting! And the clouds of Venus may be the most [Earthlike environment](https://www.cnet.com/news/nasa-wants-to-build-a-floating-city-above-the-clouds-of-venus/) in the solar system beyond terra firma. \nSo when will we return to our hot, hostile sister planet? Specifically, will a man made spacecraft at least breach Venus’s atmosphere before the 2020’s are out?\nPer this [pessimistic Atlantic article](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/01/venus-lost-generation/513479/): \nA generation has now gone by since the agency set a course for the second planet from the Sun, and with this latest mission opportunity lost, the earliest an expedition there might launch (from some future selection process) would be 2027—nearly 40 years since our last visit.\nRussia and the U.S. are considering a joint mission called [Venera D](https://www.space.com/35333-russia-nasa-venus-mission-venera-d.html), but per [Space.com](http://Space.com):\nIt's still too early to know exactly what Venera-D will look like, what it will do or when the mission will launch. A liftoff in 2025 or 2026 is possible under an \"aggressive\" time line.\nWill a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030? \nThis question will resolve positively if a human-made spacecraft enters Venus's atmosphere prior to January 1, 2030. Any craft would qualify (such as [Venera 13](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_13)), and the craft need not have operational systems inside the Venetian atmosphere to resolve positively. Credible reports by space agencies such as [NASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASA) or [ESA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Space_Agency) will qualify as a resolution source.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:15:45.228Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 625,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-07T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9590/pi-covid-19-variant-by-pi-day/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In honor of the [mathematical constant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pi) that approximates 3.141592..., March 14 (3/14 in American notation) is noted as [Pi Day](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pi_Day) by various overlapping groups such as mathematicians, nerds, geeks and people who frequent prediction aggregation/tracking websites.\nPi is also the [Greek letter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_alphabet) coming after omicron, which suggests it could be the name of the next named variant of SARS-COV-2 declared by the [World Health Organization (WHO)](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/) - although two letters, nu and xi, were skipped.\nPrior to the current Omicron, variants Alpha and Delta were particularly notable, quickly becoming the predominant strain at their respective times.\nWill there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?\nThis resolves positive if the WHO has named any variant as \"pi\" or any subsequent letter of the Greek alphabet by March 14, 2022.\nThe point of the question is to predict about the next named variant using Pi Day as an excuse. Therefore, it still counts if, for whatever reason, the WHO skips the letter pi and goes straight to rho (or sigma, tau...) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:46:50.117Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 116,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-01T10:16:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-15T14:16:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will polygamy be legal nationwide in the US by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8558/polygamy-legal-in-us-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Gay marriage has gained full legal recognition in the US, and some have speculated that [polyamory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polyamory_in_the_United_States) may be next to receive the same treatment. According to the Merriam-Webster dictionary, [polyamory is defined as](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/polyamory)\nthe state or practice of having more than one open romantic relationship at a time\nwhile [polygamy is defined as](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/polygamy)\nmarriage in which a spouse of either sex may have more than one mate at the same time\nCurrently, polygamy is [outlawed federally and in all 50 states in the US](https://www.hg.org/legal-articles/is-polygamy-illegal-in-the-united-states-31807). However, [several cities in Massachusetts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polyamory_in_the_United_States) have passed local ordinances [extending the benefits of domestic partnerships to those in polyamorous relationships](https://www.albanyupdate.com/massachusetts-city-provides-legal-recognition-for-polyamorists/).\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about polyamory in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nPolyamory, the fastest growing cultural movement when it comes to novel forms of relationships, will continue to increase and become more open in the public eye and likely be legalized nation-wide by 2050.\nWill polygamy be legal nationwide in the US by 2050?\nThis resolves positively if any time between 2021 to 2049 (inclusive), polygamy is legal federally and in all states in the United States. Resolution may be provided by credible media reports or official US government sources.\nFor the purposes of this question, the legality of polygamy must be indifferent to sex or gender; that is, it should permit both a marriage of one man with multiple women, one woman with multiple men, or any arrangement of legally recognized sexes/genders. Legally-recognized polygamous marriages must allow at least 3 members to be married, though they need not all share equal rights.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:00:24.314Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T15:08:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T15:08:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which of these parties will provide the Prime Minister of Australia following the next (subsequent to May 2019) Federal Election?",
- "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.159045690",
- "platform": "Betfair",
- "description": "This market will be turned IN PLAY with unmatched bets cancelled at the conclusion of polling on Election Day. Thereafter unmatched bets will not be cancelled at any time by Betfair and the market will not be actively managed. In the event that a government can’t be officially sworn in by the Governor General all bets on this market will be void. Coalition refers to the Liberal Party and the National Party. This is a cross-matching market. Customers should be aware that:
Transmissions described as “live” by some broadcasters may actually be delayed and that all in-play matches are not necessarily televised.
The extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data.
BET IN-PLAY Australian customers call Telbet to bet in-play on this market – call 132BET (132238)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Coalition",
- "probability": 0.3070015141231139,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Labor",
- "probability": 0.6787448441497415,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Any Other Party",
- "probability": 0.014253641727144571,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:00:25.984Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4,
- "volume": 374555.19
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Coalition, Labor, Any Other Party"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6102/anti-5g-attack-to-take-life-in-20212022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies [warned in May of 2020](https://www.wired.com/story/the-dhs-prepares-for-attacks-fueled-by-5g-conspiracy-theories/) of escalating threats against 5G infrastructure. British [telecoms masts have been burned](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse) and [British telecoms workers menaced](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse); much the same at lesser scale has taken place in many other countries. Then on Christmas Day 2020 came [the bombing in Nashville](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nashville_bombing) of an AT&T building by a lone wolf extremist, who took himself out in the blast, but no others.\nWill an anti-5G attack take another's life in 2021 or 2022?\nWill a non-perpetrator be killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology before January 1st, 2023 (Eastern time)?\nResolves positive on multiple credible media reports that a non-perpetrator has been killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology, anywhere in the world. The killing must be directly in the course of the attack itself, including the final approach towards the target. Killings incidental to the preparation of the attack, such as a premature explosion during the construction phase of a bombing, or the shooting death of a police officer trying to arrest a person later found to have been planning a bombing, do not trigger a positive resolution. In close cases, whether the 5G motivation is \"in large part\" is ultimately a judgment call by Metaculus or Metaculus's moderator(s) based on their summation of credible media reports. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:35:20.137Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 110,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7172/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2022-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the parties that control a majority of seats in the U.S. House and Senate respectively, as a result of the 2022 general election.\nThe 2022 general election is understood to include any special election that may be held concurrently, as well as the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner of a House or Senate seat. \nControl of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be solely determined by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election. Members elected to the House of Representatives who do not have full voting rights (e.g., \"delegates” or “resident commissioners”) are not included for purposes of resolving this market.\nControl of a seat in the Senate that is contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the individual elected to that seat. An individual elected to the Senate in the 2022 general election who does not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either of the Democratic or Republican parties will nonetheless be considered to be affiliated with one party or the other in the event that, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, such person a) is an incumbent Senator who is a member of that party’s caucus; or b) is not an incumbent Senator but who has most recently publicly stated the intention to caucus with that party.\nControl of a seat in the Senate that is not contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the caucus affiliation of the incumbent, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day. In the event that a Senate seat is vacant at 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, and not subject to election on that date, that seat shall not be considered for the purposes of resolving this market.\nShould the Democratic and Republican parties control an equal number of Senate seats as a result of the 2022 general election, control of the chamber shall be determined by the party affiliation of the Vice President.\nDetermination of the winners of Senate and House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 general election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Rep. House & Senate",
- "probability": 0.6728971962616822,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "R House, D Senate",
- "probability": 0.14018691588785046,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dem. House & Senate",
- "probability": 0.12149532710280374,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "D House, R Senate",
- "probability": 0.06542056074766356,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:57:03.813Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 1071647
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Rep. House & Senate, R House, D Senate, Dem. House & Senate, D House, R Senate"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Israel recognize Palestine by 2070?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7631/israel-recognizing-palestine/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [two-state solution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-state_solution) is a proposed solution to the [Israeli-Palestinian conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict), involving mutual recognition of Israel and Palestine. [Many attempts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_peace_process) have been made to reach such a solution.\nWill Israel recognize Palestine by 2070?\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the [State of Palestine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_of_Palestine) is legally recognized by the [State of Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel) before January 1, 2070. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. In the case of a merger between the two, that does not count as recognition.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:21:59.244Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 194,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2048-05-14T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-02-02T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7406/fatal-non-state-nuclear-detonation-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A nuclear detonation by a [non-state actor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-state_actor) could potentially have dire consequences either directly or via triggering other harmful actions by other actors. Non-state actors have never yet detonated nuclear weapons, but [there are conceivable scenarios in which they could](https://nonproliferation.org/understanding-nuclear-weapon-risks-non-state-actors-and-nuclear-weapons/): \nThe majority of nuclear security experts identify two primary scenarios involving nuclear weapons and non-state actors. The first scenario involves the acquisition of a nuclear device from the existing arsenals of nuclear-armed States by terrorists or other non-state actors. The second scenario envisions the construction of a crude nuclear bomb by non-state actors using special nuclear materials—highly enriched uranium (HEU) or plutonium (Pu). The actualization of each of these scenarios would be very difficult, and the probability of a successful theft and detonation of an actual nuclear weapon or manufacturing of an improvised device by non-state actors is considered to be low. Yet, this probability is not zero.\nWill a nuclear detonation by a non-state actor causes at least one fatality by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2030, a nuclear detonation by a non-state actor causes at least one fatality in any country or area globally. \nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution. \nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN.\nNeither [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:12:23.961Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 45,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T21:49:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:49:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which Party's candidate will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?",
- "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.178176964",
- "platform": "Betfair",
- "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the stated time on the day of the election. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2024 presidential election. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution. This market will be settled once both the projected winner is announced by the Associated Press and the losing candidate concedes. If the losing candidate does not concede, or if there is any uncertainty around the result (for instance, caused by recounts and/or potential legal challenges), then the market will be settled on the winner decided by Congress, on the date on which the Electoral College votes are counted in a joint session of Congress. In the event of any uncertainty over which party each candidate represents the Party as defined by the Federal Election Commission will be used for settlement. This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2024. If more than one election takes place in 2024, then this market will apply to the first election that is held. Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2024 for the US Presidential Election 2024, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2024 or beyond. If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. Betfair may suspend betting on the market at any time in the interests of maintaining integrity and fairness in the markets. Customers should be aware that: Transmissions described as “live” by some broadcasters may actually be delayed.The extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic Party",
- "probability": 0.446162998215348,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican Party",
- "probability": 0.5205234979179061,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Any Other",
- "probability": 0.03331350386674598,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:00:25.986Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4,
- "volume": 32628.68
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic Party, Republican Party, Any Other"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) be finished on time?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2649/will-the-square-kilometre-array-ska-be-finished-on-time/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Square Kilometre Array (SKA)](https://www.skatelescope.org/) is a proposed radio-telescope more than a 50 times more sensitive than the current record holder. \nWith receiving stations extending out to a distance of at least 3,000 kilometres (1,900 mi) from a concentrated central core, it would exploit radio astronomy's ability to provide the highest resolution images in all astronomy. The SKA would be built in the southern hemisphere, with cores in South Africa and Australia, where the view of the Milky Way Galaxy is the best and radio interference at its least.\nAs such it is a multinational effort with, as of this writing, 11 countries contributing. \nThe creation of the SKA is separated into two phases:\n1--Providing ~10% of the total collecting area at low and mid frequencies by 2023 (SKA1). \n2--Completion of the full array (SKA2) at low and mid frequencies by 2030. \nThese huge science project often face challenges on the political, administrative, and technological level; what is planned doesn’t necessarily get built.\n\nWill the SKA be operational before 2031?\n\n---Resolves positive when the Square Kilometre Array Observatory or successor organisation announces completion of the SKA (including SKA1 & SKA2). \n---Resolves negative when the SKA (including SKA1 & SKA2) doesn’t open before 2031. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:33:51.898Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 143,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-03-19T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-03-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-12T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the price of Terra ($LUNA) be on March 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-price-of-terra-luna-be-on-march-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a scalar market on what the price of Terra ($LUNA) will be on March 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. The lower bound for this market is $25.00, and the upper bound is $125.00. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the coin’s listed price on its official CoinGecko page https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/terra-luna. This market will resolve according to the “C” (aka closing price) listed for the candle titled “Tue 01 March 2022, 12:00:00”, with the “Price” tab selected, in the Eastern Time Zone. Note, this 12:00:00 candle lists the opening price for 11:30:00 AM ET and the closing price for 12:00:00 PM ET. To allow for updates, this market will resolve on the number listed for the referenced candle at exactly 12:25:00 PM ET, on the resolution day. (To see the candlestick close price, click the candlestick icon, and observe the number after the “C:” when you hover over a candlestick for a given time period.) \n\nYou can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short Token price corresponds with the relevant cryptocurrency’s price. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value’s position within the upper and lower bound, if the final value is between these bounds. But if the final outcome value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Token is capped at $1 and $0.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Long",
- "probability": "0.320846073992595007328327619419874",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Short",
- "probability": "0.679153926007404992671672380580126",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.519Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "203",
- "liquidity": "5300.00",
- "tradevolume": "7454.31",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0xFe346cB49F606EBC03a46B66267C5570019A7615"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Long, Short"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many votes to confirm Sarah Bloom Raskin as Fed vice chair by April 15?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7720/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Sarah-Bloom-Raskin-as-Fed-vice-chair-by-April-15",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Sarah Bloom Raskin (the \"Nominee\") to be Vice Chairman for Supervision of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (the \"Office\").\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; or should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be formally communicated to the United States Senate; the contract identifying the range \"48 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"57 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. The official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source, shall be used to resolve this market. However, once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by any Senator to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/15/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "48 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "49",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "50",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "51",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "52",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "53",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "54",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "55",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "56",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "57 or more",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:08:11.283Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 16304
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "48 or fewer, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nSee also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/).\nWill the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at the Cryonics Institute requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at the Cryonics Institute facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nThe Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report.\nIf the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:50:13.560Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Belfast win Best Picture at the Oscars?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/OSCARS-036-1",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If || Nominee || has won || Award || at the 94th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see OSCARS in the Rulebook for more details. The 94th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 27, 2022. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Oscars posting the winners on the website of the Academy and December 31, 2022. . The resolution source is: Award winners at the 94th Academy Awards according to the website of the Oscars. (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.782Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "yes_bid": 19,
- "yes_ask": 23,
- "spread": 4,
- "shares_volume": 3792
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5344/nobel-prize-for-string-theory-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[String theory](https://math.berkeley.edu/~kwray/papers/string_theory.pdf)\nroughly speaking, replaces point particles by strings, which can be either open or closed (depends on the particular type of particle that is being replaced by the string), whose length, or string length, is approximately 10^(−33) cm. Also, in string theory, one replaces Feynman diagrams by surfaces, and wordlines become worldsheets.\nIn [late 2019](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/string-theory-does-not-win-a-nobel-and-i-win-a-bet/) John Horgan won a 2002 [longbets.com](http://longbets.com) bet with physicist Michio Kaku that by 2020 no unified theory of physics will win a Nobel Prize.\nWill there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if a Nobel Prize in Physics is widely considered by credible media to have been awarded to someone for their work on string theory before 2050.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:21:41.523Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 80,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-05T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8553/donor-giving-10m-of-nuclear-risk-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on funding and labor allocated to nuclear risk reduction. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8125/nuclear-risk-funding--labor/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.\nAs far as I (Michael Aird) am aware:\n--- \nThe John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and the Carnegie Corporation of New York have been the two largest donors in the nuclear risk space since 2012 (excluding governments)\n--- \nSince 2016, MacArthur and Carnegie have often each given out more than $10 million in nuclear risk grants per year\n--- \nNo other donor has given out than $10 million in nuclear risk grants per year in any year since 2012 (again, excluding governments)\nI base this in part on the Peace and Security Funding Map data[1], which stretches back to 2012.\nWill a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if, by 31 March 2023, credible sources indicate that a donor that is not a government (and not one of the aforementioned Carnegie and MacArthur foundations) has in 2022 given out more than $10 million in grants that the donor sees as primarily relevant to nuclear weapons risks (including proliferation, disarmament, etc.). These sources could include a foundation's own grants database, the Peace and Security Funding Map data (with an additional check to ensure the grants are indeed related to nuclear risk[2]), or news sources. It is not necessary that all such sources show that this has happened (though they shouldn't explicit deny that it has happened), since some sources may simply fail to report things or be out of date.\nFootnote\n[1] To see the relevant data, go to [https://peaceandsecurityindex.org](https://peaceandsecurityindex.org), click \"Start searching\", select \"Preventing and Mitigating Conflict > Nuclear Issues\" from \"SUBJECT AREA\", and click \"List\". This will include government funding bodies, but these can be removed by unchecking \"U.S. Federal Funders\". \n[2] Unfortunately, the Peace and Security Funding Map tracks under \"Preventing and Mitigating Conflict > Nuclear Issues\" many grants that really aren't about nuclear weapons issues but happen to use the term \"nuclear\". These include medical research grants that use the term \"nuclear\" in a totally different sense and biosecurity-related grants to the Nuclear Threat Initiative. Therefore, if the only credible source that can be found that suggests this question should resolve positively if this source, I'll check whether it does indeed appear that the funder made >$10m in nuclear risk related grants, and I'll explain my reasoning publicly and invite criticism.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.32,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:59:58.534Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Boris Johnson be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on March 20, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-boris-johnson-be-the-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-on-march-20-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is the market on whether Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is the prime minister of the United Kingdom on the resolution time, March 20 2022, 12 PM ET.\n\nThe office of prime minister is not established by any statute or constitutional document, but exists only by long-established convention, this individual is also an MP and is normally the leader of the political party that commands a majority in the House of Commons.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"No\" if, before the resolution time, official government or credible media sources state that Boris Johnson has left the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, whether through resignation, a vote of no confidence, loss of Parliamentary seat, incapacity or any other reason.\n\nPlease note, if Boris Johnson resigns from the office before the resolution time, but remains in post until the resolution time, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOtherwise, if Boris Johnson still holds the office and there was no resignation, this market will resolve to \"Yes\".",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.8589363680390861336536449361559112",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.1410636319609138663463550638440888",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.517Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "213",
- "liquidity": "879.12",
- "tradevolume": "2896.91",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x6D9F7082A94d7d5b70cD7772B8661F22cD735663"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session??",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8034/hen-caging-prohibition-bill-becomes-uk-law/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill](https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3051) is a bill introduced by Henry Smith, the Conservative Party MP for Crawley, to the House of Commons in a Ten Minute Rule speech [on 22nd September 2021](https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2021-09-22/debates/3E79001A-C8B4-4DD7-8877-DC8A1E15DD2D/HenCaging%28Prohibition%29). If passed, the bill will prohibit the use of cages for egg-laying hens.\nFollowing its first reading, there was no opposition to printing as a bill and [to a second reading](https://thehumaneleague.org.uk/article/the-latest-news-on-our-fight-against-cages), which is scheduled for 22nd October 2021.\nWill the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session?\nThis resolves positively if the Hen Caging (Prohibition) Bill introduced by Henry Smith receives Royal Assent and becomes law in the 2021-22 parliamentary session, recorded on the official [Parliamentary Bills website](https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3051).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.86,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:36:26.921Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 52,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-06T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-07-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner.\nIn a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), the median expert estimated that there is a 50% chance of human-level artificial intelligence by 2062, and after this milestone were reached, respondents reported a 10% chance that superintelligence would be achieved within two years. [Our very own question on the prospect of human-machine intelligence parity by 2040](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) currently has a median prediction of 60%. In another question on the possibility of progress toward human-machine intelligence parity surprising us, a similar median estimate is given.\nIn the aforementioned survey, experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously.\nWhen considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely (according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/)): \n1--The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2--The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem. You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants. \nIn the [headline question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/) to this series, I defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of some artificial intelligence system(s)?\nThe question resolves positively if a catastrophe occurs resulting principally from the principally due to the deployment of some artificial intelligence system(s) that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:24:32.998Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 362,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-31T23:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well).\nThe current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him. \nHu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests. \n[Jiang Zemin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Zemin) took up the mantle for the remaining and two more terms. With the death of Deng Xiaoping and the waning influence of the [eight elders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight_Elders), Jiang was able to turn his de jure leadership of China into a de facto one. He introduced another set of reforms, centralising a lot of the political power and relaxing many economic restrictions. He resigned in 2002, making room for Hu Jintao. \n[Hu Jintao](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Jintao) aimed to balance out the inequalities that had arisen over the previous decades by adding regulations for the economy and protecting the environment. He stepped down after his two terms were up. \nHis successor and and current office holder is [Xi Jinping](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping).\nWith the exception of Jiang Zemin, who had to step up after his predecessor was factually ousted from his position, all general secretaries stepped down from their office when their second term was up. Even Jiang did after his second ‘regular’ term. \nBut there’s doubt Xi will do so as well. Usually a successor was introduced into the Politburo with the second term (young enough to serve two 5-year terms themselves), but Xi notably did not do that in 2017. [Some](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china) see this, as well as his chairing many leadership positions and changing the constitution to abolish term limits for the presidency, as signs Xi aims for a third term in 2022.\nBut will he? \nWill Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?\nQuestion resolves positive if: \n--- \nXi begins serving a third consecutive term as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, or\n--- \nXi remains [paramount leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_leader) past 2022, or\n--- \nXi remains de facto leader of China if either of these positions loose their importance in Chinese politics.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.050000000000000044,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:23:35.259Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 574,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-30T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will small modular nuclear reactors supply at least 1% of any nation's electricity by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8677/smr-nuclear-1-of-any-nations-energy-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Small modular reactors](https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/what-are-small-modular-reactors-smrs) (SMRs) are a type of nuclear power reactor which are smaller than conventional nuclear power plants (in size and in power output), and modular (meaning they can be manufactured off-site and shipped as a unit to be set-up faster and at lower cost). Russia has built a [floating SMR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akademik_Lomonosov) in a harbor in the arctic circle, and [China has begun developing](https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Installation-of-containment-starts-at-Chinese-SMR) a land-based reactor with plans to begin operation by 2027. A division at [Rolls-Royce](https://www.rolls-royce-smr.com/press/funding-secured-to-enable-small-modular-reactor-delivery-to-meet-net-zero) has set a target to bring SMRs online in the UK \"in the early 2030s\".\nWill small modular nuclear reactors supply at least 1% of any nation's electricity by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if, by 2030-01-01, small modular reactor nuclear power supplies at least 1% of any nation's annual elecricity consumption. Resolution may come from credible media reports, government agencies, or energy industry researchers such as the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.41,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:07:15.076Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 106,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-06T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-04-11T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3124/will-us-non-overseas-contingency-operations-military-deaths-exceed-3000-in-any-calendar-year-before-and-including-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [USNI News reporting](https://news.usni.org/2019/06/05/document-trends-in-active-duty-military-deaths) on the May 20, 2019 Congressional Research Service report:\nSince 2006—five years after the start of major combat operations in Afghanistan and three years after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq—a total of 16,652 active-duty personnel and mobilized reservists have died while serving in the U.S. Armed Forces. Seventy-three percent of these casualties occurred under circumstances unrelated to war, a category classified in this report as Non-Overseas Contingency Operations, or Non-OCO. Twenty-seven percent have died while serving in OCO operations—primarily within the territory of Iraq and Afghanistan—during periods of active combat operations. OCO operations related to Afghanistan primarily include Enduring Freedom and Freedom’s Sentinel. For Iraq, OCO operations include Iraqi Freedom, New Dawn, and Inherent Resolve. Figure 1 summarizes all service deaths since 2006.\nWill US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031?\nThis question resolves on the basis of data published by the Congressional Research Service.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:41:30.494Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 108,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-24T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-09-24T21:03:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-07-01T21:03:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Anthony Fauci remain NIAID director through the end of the year?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7702/Will-Anthony-Fauci-remain-NIAID-director-through-the-end-of-the-year",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Dr. Anthony Fauci holds the office of Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases without interruption until the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:07:24.406Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 22140
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will global trade as a percentage of GWP exceed 61% by 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7231/global-trade-exceeds-61-of-gwp-by-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Global trade has increased from [27% of GWP in 1970 to 61% in 2008](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS). This has brought benefits such as [poverty alleviation](https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/trade/publication/the-role-of-trade-in-ending-poverty) and lower prices for consumers, but has also been targeted for deleterious effects on labour in developed countries, such as [suppression of wages](https://www.epi.org/press/globalization-lowered-wages-american-workers/). As such, trade has been a political point of consternation in many countries.\nPossibly because of that, trade as a percentage of GWP has not exceeded the peak value of 60.789%, though in 2011, 2012, and 2019, the the value of global trade exceeded 60% of GWP.\nThe past few years however have witnessed the signing of the [RCEP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Comprehensive_Economic_Partnership) and [CPTPP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_and_Progressive_Agreement_for_Trans-Pacific_Partnership) trade agreements, the former being the biggest trade bloc in history.\nWill global trade as a percentage of GWP exceed 61% by 2026?\nThis question resolves positive if trade as a percentage of GWP, [as published by the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS), exceeds 61% between 2020 and 2025, inclusive; otherwise it resolves negative. Resolution would be ambiguous if the World Bank ceases to exist or publish this data and no alternate data source can be found.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:07:03.072Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-27T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Did Usain Bolt use performance-enhancing drugs?",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/did-usain-bolt-use-performance-enhancing-drugs-14420",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "Since around 2006, Jamaica has supplied many of the world's fastest sprinters. Some have used [genetics ](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/books/article-2412477/What-makes-Usain-fellow-runners-bolt-THE-SPORTS-GENE-BY-DAVID-EPSTEIN.html)to explain the [Jamaican dominance in sprinting](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/14/opinion/sunday/the-secret-of-jamaicas-runners.html?_r=1), some [credit the Jamaican environment](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2016/08/18/490346468/a-surprising-theory-about-jamaicas-amazing-running-success), while others believe that it is the result of rampant cheating in the form of Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs). At the center of this debate is Usain Bolt, first recognized when he became the youngest gold medalist ever at the 2002 Junior World Championships. After establishing himself as a professional sprinter, Bolt won 17 of his 18 races between 2007 and 2016, capturing 17 gold medals and setting multiple world records. Since Bolt wins races against athletes known to have taken PEDs, some wonder if Bolt became the world's fastest man by taking PEDs himself.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Usain Bolt did not use any illegal performance-enhancing drugs.",
- "probability": 0.7469908609359496,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Usain Bolt started using illegal performance-enhancing drugs after age 15 in 2002, continuing to do so throughout his professional career.",
- "probability": 0.21943257968810703,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Usain Bolt started using illegal performance-enhancing drugs before he was 15 in 2002, continuing to do so throughout his professional career.",
- "probability": 0.03357655937594347,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:09:13.887Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Usain Bolt did not use any illegal performance-enhancing drugs., Usain Bolt started using illegal performance-enhancing drugs after age 15 in 2002, continuing to do so throughout his professional career., Usain Bolt started using illegal performance-enhancing drugs before he was 15 in 2002, continuing to do so throughout his professional career."
- },
- {
- "title": "Will armed conflict between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "2049 marks the 100th anniversary of the [People's Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China). [Graham Allison](https://outline.com/qXAaBy) and [The Brookings Institute](http://www.brookings.edu/on-the-record/understanding-beijings-motives-regarding-taiwan-and-americas-role/) have suggested that the PRC wants to achieve some form of national greatness by 2049, which would possibly include conquering [Taiwan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan).\nWill armed conflicts between the national military forces, and/or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occurs before January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths. \n---There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths. \nPlease note: positive resolution could in theory be the result of a few incidents separated by many years if the total number of deaths from such incidents will reach at least 100 from now till the end of 2049.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:18:12.947Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 146,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8484/trafalgar-group-vs-538-polling-average-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Polling accuracy has been frequently discussed after most polls underestimated Trump's performance in 2016 and 2020. Some [have argued](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/11/10/21551766/election-polls-results-wrong-david-shor) that this is a result of systemic issues that are difficult to address, such as non-response bias. Others [have suggested](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-death-of-polling-is-greatly-exaggerated/) that while it's possible there are systemic issues the bias is unlikely to be consistent over time due to pollsters adjusting after big misses.\n[Trafalgar Group](https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/) is a polling firm that does polling for state and national elections. They have been [criticized](https://web.archive.org/web/20210915164337/https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1437984246703038465) by some [political](https://web.archive.org/web/20200828150653/https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1299362704101175302) [forecasters](https://web.archive.org/web/20210309175524/https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301894366886326272) as [inaccurate](https://web.archive.org/web/20201029155819/https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1321843425268948992) or biased toward conservatives. However, after the 2020 election FiveThirtyEight upgraded Trafalgar from a [C- pollster rating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trafalgar_Group) to an [A-](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/trafalgar-group/), and in a podcast episode Nate Silver [apologized to Trafalgar for prior off the cuff remarks](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-the-gold-standard-for-polling-has-changed/).\nIf there is a systemic polling bias that underweights the chances of Republican candidates, one possible test might be to compare the performance of the FiveThirtyEight polling average in 2022 to the performance of a polling firm which some view as right-biased, like Trafalgar Group.\nWill Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?\nResolution will be determined by comparing the performance of the most recent poll conducted by the Trafalgar Group for each of the Senate, House, and Gubernatorial elections in the 2022 elections taking place on November 8, 2022, to the 538 polling average on the day after the final day of the corresponding Trafalgar poll. The difference between the top two candidates by final vote share will be compared to the difference between those candidates in the FiveThirtyEight polling average and final Trafalgar Polls. The average absolute value of the difference between actual result and polling will be calculated for each. If the Trafalgar Group average difference is closer to zero than that of FiveThirtyEight then this resolves positively.\nRaces where Trafalgar Group does not produce a poll within one month of the election date will not be included in the average. In the event the average difference for FiveThirtyEight and Trafalgar Group is the same this resolves ambiguously.\nResolution Example Using Fake Numbers:\nSuppose for three races the final results were as follows, where positive values mean the Democrat was ahead of the Republican in the final results and polls. TG stands for Trafalgar Group.\nRace Final Result TG Final Poll TG Error 538 Polling Avg 538 Error \nA\n+2.3\n+1.5\n0.8\n+3.1\n0.8\nB\n+1.2\n-1.1\n2.3\n+2.5\n1.3\nC\n-3.4\n-1.2\n2.2\n-4.0\n0.6\nBased on the above the average error of the Trafalgar Group would be 1.77 and the average error of the FiveThirtyEight polling average would be 0.90. If the example were all of the elections being counted this question would resolve negatively since the FiveThirtyEight error is closer to zero.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:55:48.260Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-08T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T19:28:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the most parliamentary seats at the next UK general election?",
- "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.167249009",
- "platform": "Betfair",
- "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the start of voting on the day of the next general election. Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times. The Speaker will not be classified as belonging to any particular party, and will therefore not be counted in any individual party's seat totals. Customers should be aware that:
Transmissions described as “live” by some broadcasters may actually be delayed.
The extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data.
",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Conservative",
- "probability": 0.5725190839694656,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Labour",
- "probability": 0.4174618320610687,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Liberal Democrat",
- "probability": 0.010019083969465648,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:00:25.985Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4,
- "volume": 174977.08
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat"
- },
- {
- "title": "Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/477/efficacy-confirmation-of-a-new-alzheimers-treatment-protocol/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In September 2014 [a paper](http://www.aging-us.com/article/100690/text#fulltext) published in the journal Aging made a remarkable claim: A treatment for Alzheimer's disease reversed cognitive decline, allowing some people with early stages of the disease to return to work. The study stressed that more extensive investigation into the treatment, called \"Metabolic Enhancement for Neurodegeneration\" or MEND was needed.\nIn June 2016, [a further study](http://www.aging-us.com/article/100981) was published, also in Aging, that followed up on the original cohort of 10 patients and included objective measures of cognitive and metabolic function that demonstrated clear improvement using the MEND protocol.\nInstead of directly treating the molecular underpinnings of Alzheimer's disease, MEND [treats the metabolic and inflammatory symptoms](https://qz.com/977133/a-ucla-study-shows-there-could-be-a-cure-for-alzheimers-disease/) of the disease. The treatment [regimen includes](http://www.aging-us.com/article/100690/text#fulltext) a low glycemic diet, stress reduction, and aids to better sleep, as well as vitamins and other products like fish oil and coconut oil. The regimen's goal was to improve metabolic function and reduce inflammation. \nAll ten patients displayed some cognitive improvement, with some noted as \"Marked\" or \"significant\" improvement. If proven out, MEND could represent a significant advance in the ongoing fight against Alzheimer's and dementia, potentially reducing the costs associated with caring for such conditions in an aging population.\nSo far, however, the MEND protocol has only been carried out in a single cohort and administered by a single research group.\nWill MEND be independently replicated by 2025?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a research group independent of UCLA's [Buck Institute for Research on Aging](https://www.buckinstitute.org) publishes in a reputable journal results of a MEND implementation in a completely separate cohort of patients that shows similar magnitudes of cognitive improvement on or before January 1, 2025.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:11:08.562Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 197,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-06-12T21:21:40Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will marijuana be rescheduled under the Controlled Substances Act in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7729/Will-marijuana-be-rescheduled-under-the-Controlled-Substances-Act-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, prior to the End Date listed below, marijuana is removed from the list of Schedule I Controlled Substances regulated by the Controlled Substances Act. \nThe legalization, decriminalization, or criminalization of marijuana under the laws of any state shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:08:45.602Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 3426
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and Russia before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7449/deadly-clash-between-us-and-russia/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The US and Russia have a complicated military history, which came to a head just recently in 2020 through a small skirmish between US and Russian forces in Syria.\n\"While U.S. military and Russian forces have come in contact at checkpoints and along highway M4 in Syria throughout 2020, on Aug. 17 U.S. and Syrian Democratic Forces came under small arms fire after passing through a checkpoint near Tal al-Zahab, Syria. The U.S. and SDF had permission from the pro-Syrian regime forces manning the checkpoint, but then began to take fire from unidentified forces nearby. The U.S. and SDF returned fire and did not suffer any casualties. [U.S. officials said the small arms fire likely came from Syrian and Russian forces.](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/pentagon-sending-troops-syria-after-clashes-between-u-s-russian-n1240319)\"\nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and Russia before 2024?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable American and Russian forces. \n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2023-12-31 UTC.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:15:10.758Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 163,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T23:49:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T23:49:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of Germany's population will be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 as of 1 June 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2199-what-percentage-of-germany-s-population-will-be-fully-vaccinated-against-covid-19-as-of-1-june-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "As Germany faces record high number of COVID-19 infections, vaccination numbers have been object of special attention ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-germany-considers-partial-mandatory-vaccinations/a-59818417), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/13/angela-merkel-urges-germans-to-get-covid-vaccines-quickly-amid-high-infection-rate), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/covid-deniers-and-anti-vaxxers-threaten-german-doctors/a-59805953)). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Our World in Data for the \"People fully vaccinated\" metric, relative to population, as displayed here at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 June 2022: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=DEU. For example, Germany's share of the population fully vaccinated against COVID-19 as of 14 November 2021 was 66.94%.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 7 December 2021: For the purposes of this question, a person is considered fully vaccinated if they have received a single-dose vaccine or both doses of a two-dose vaccine ([OWID FAQ](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations#frequently-asked-questions)). This definition will control throughout the duration of the question. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 70.00%",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 70.00% and 75.00%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 75.00% but less than 80.00%",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 80.00% and 85.00%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.46,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 85.00%",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:02:39.283Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 393,
- "numforecasters": 119,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 70.00%, Between 70.00% and 75.00%, inclusive, More than 75.00% but less than 80.00%, Between 80.00% and 85.00%, inclusive, More than 85.00%"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3042/will-wildfires-destroy-a-total-exceeding-10mha-of-global-tree-cover-in-any-year-by-the-end-of-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In this year so far, scientists have recorded [more than 74,000 fires in Brazil](http://queimadas.dgi.inpe.br/queimadas/portal/situacao-atual). That's nearly double 2018's total of about 40,000 fires. The surge marks an 83 percent increase in wildfires over the same period of 2018, [Brazil's National Institute for Space Research reported](https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-rainforest-experiencing-record-number-of-wildfires-this-year-2019-8?international=true&r=US&IR=T). \nNatural disasters like fires and tropical storms are an increasingly common cause of deforestation, especially as climate change makes these more frequent and severe.\nIn 2016, a sharp increase in forest fires stoked record losses in global forest cover equivalent to the area of New Zealand[[1](https://phys.org/news/2017-10-forest-contributed-global-tree-loss.html)], according to [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR), an initiative by the [World Resources Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Resources_Institute).\nWill wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positive if the [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2Y8jecV) reports that at least 10 million hectares of global tree cover was lost due to wildfires in any calendar year up to and including 2030. [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR) defines a wildfire as a large-scale forest loss resulting from the burning of forest vegetation with no visible human conversion or agricultural activity afterward.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:38:16.326Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 87,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-24T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 New Hampshire Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7258/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-Hampshire-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 New Hampshire Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Chuck Morse",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Donald Bolduc",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Frank Edelblut",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kelly Ayotte",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chris Sununu",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Scott Brown",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Matt Mowers",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Corky Messner",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Phil Taub",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bill Binnie",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Frank Guinta",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:58:49.091Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 73648
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Chuck Morse, Donald Bolduc, Frank Edelblut, Kelly Ayotte, Chris Sununu, Scott Brown, Matt Mowers, Corky Messner, Phil Taub, Bill Binnie, Frank Guinta"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will more than 260 million Americans be vaccinated for COVID-19 by March 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/VAXX-042",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If over 260 million Americans are reported as vaccinated for COVID-19 by March 1, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see VAXX in the Rulebook for details. \n\nThis market will close and expire the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the occurrence of the event, the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of data for March 1, 2022 or March 8, 2022. . The resolution source is: The number of people reported as receiving at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine as published by the CDC. (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4,
- "yes_bid": 2,
- "yes_ask": 3,
- "spread": 1,
- "shares_volume": 40746
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7157/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Herschel Walker",
- "probability": 0.8365384615384615,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Gary Black",
- "probability": 0.038461538461538464,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Latham Saddler",
- "probability": 0.038461538461538464,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Doug Collins",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kelly Loeffler",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "David Perdue",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brian Kemp",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Geoff Duncan",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chris Carr",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Vernon Jones",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kelvin King",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Buddy Carter",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:56:39.782Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 812165
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Herschel Walker, Gary Black, Latham Saddler, Doug Collins, Kelly Loeffler, David Perdue, Brian Kemp, Geoff Duncan, Chris Carr, Vernon Jones, Kelvin King, Buddy Carter"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the eventual consensus explanation of star KIC 8462852 variability be an intervening molecular cloud?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1497/will-the-eventual-consensus-explanation-of-star-kic-8462852-variability-be-an-intervening-molecular-cloud/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This star (aka \"Tabby's Star) has been puzzling us for a few years now. Its highly variable apparent magnitude doesn't fit the pattern for other variable stars or stars with eclipsing companions or transiting exoplanets. To date, the dips in brightness do not exhibit any periodicity at all. Even worse, the dips in the luminosity graphs are asymmetrical (gradual onset, sudden reset). For lots of background and prior Metaculus discussion, see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/467/) and [this one.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/110/).\nMost attention has been aimed at eclipsing objects orbiting the star itself, and our prior questions had rather short time horizons.\nNow I put forward my own pet theory as a binary question with open-ended close: Until such time as the scientific community does a face-palm and says \"yeah, of course that's what it was!\", is the explanation some passing interstellar gas and/or dust?\nFrom [this paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.03505.pdf) here's a good summary of the molecular cloud conjecture:\n7.2. An intervening molecular cloud\nAlternatively, there might be a chance alignment with a localized molecular cloud (as opposed to an overdense filament or sheet).\nThe Clemens & Barvainis (1988) catalog of small molecular clouds was selected optically based on examination of the POSS plates, and was sensitive to clouds smaller than 10′, typically down to ∼1′. Clemens et al. (1991) found that the mean radius of these clouds was 0.35 pc. The clouds in this catalog cluster near the Galactic plane presumably both because clouds are intrinsically more common there and because they are easier to identify in silhouette against the large number of stars there.\nA quiescent Bok globule 0.1 pc ≈20,000 au across and midway between Earth and Boyajian’s Star would have almost certainly escaped detection. It would have a radius of 40\", and examination of the POSS plates for Boyajian’s Star confirms that the star counts are too low in this region to clearly reveal such a small object, especially if some of the stars in the image were foreground to it and the globule were not spherical. Such high-latitude clouds exist: Getman et al. (2008) describe the \"mysterious” high Galactic latitude cloud CG12, which sits 200 pc above the plane at a distance of 550 pc (about the same distance as Boyajian’s Star).\nIn this case, the secular dimming would be naturally explained by the changing line of sight to Boyajian’s Star through the cloud’s slowly varying radial column density profile,and the dips would then be explained by small-scale (sub-au) structure within the cloud.\nThis question resolves when a consensus is achieved, and it will retroactively close one year prior to the resolution date. From the earlier questions about this star's consensus explanation:\nWe'll use the following criteria to specify consensus. Let N be the number of refereed published journal papers that:\n--- \nprovide an explanation for the aperiodic dips seen in KIC 8462852, and\n--- \nare cited by at least one published paper, or two preprints, supporting their explanation with additional analysis and/or data, and\n--- \nare cited at least 5 times in total, and\n--- \nare not cited by a published, refereed paper refuting or disputing the given explanation within a year following publication.\nIf N=1 we will consider a consensus to have been reached. If N>1, and if all of the explanations are qualitatively the same, i.e. involving the same essential physics and objects (e.g. \"Comet breakup\"), we will also consider consensus to have been reached. Otherwise, we will consider that consensus has not yet been reached.\nResolution will then be positive if an intervening, galactic molecular cloud / gas cloud / supernova remnant is the explanation. Resolution will be negative if the explanation is anything other than interstellar gas and dust in our line of sight (e.g. anything orbiting the star, or the star's intrinsic variability etc)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:24:38.210Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Landing people on Mars is a longstanding ambition of NASA. Wikipedia [lists 17 crewed Mars mission proposed by NASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans), with the first one from 1960.\nThe latest is the [\"Moon to Mars\"](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/moon-to-mars/overview) idea, as stated in Space Policy Directive-1:\nThe NASA Administrator shall, 'Lead an innovative and sustainable program of exploration with commercial and international partners to enable human expansion across the solar system and to bring back to Earth new knowledge and opportunities. Beginning with missions beyond low-Earth orbit, the United States will lead the return of humans to the Moon for long-term exploration and utilization, followed by human missions to Mars and other destinations.'\nThe general ambition seems to be achieving [landing people on Mars around 2030](https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/nss_chart_v23.pdf).\n[Metaculus has very similar and popular question \"Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/). However, there is no corresponding question for NASA.\nSo, will a NASA-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\nThe question will resolve positively even if the NASA-branded mission makes use of SpaceX transport system, under the condition that the main funding for the mission comes from USA budget.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:23:45.999Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 321,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-10-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Between 30 October 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2171-between-30-october-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-council-of-the-european-union-impose-new-restrictive-measures-sanctions-on-china-over-human-rights-violations-and-abuses-in-xinjiang",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "On 22 March 2021, the Council imposed restrictive measures against four Chinese officials and one Chinese entity for human rights abuses in Xinjiang, the first such sanctions since the Tiananmen Square crackdown in 1989 ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56487162), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-china-sanctions/eu-agrees-china-sanctions-over-xinjiang-abuses-first-in-three-decades-idUSKBN2BE1AI), [EUR-Lex](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=uriserv%3AOJ.LI.2021.099.01.0001.01.ENG&toc=OJ%3AL%3A2021%3A099I%3ATOC), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/banking-and-finance/international-relations/restrictive-measures-sanctions_en)). The imposition of restrictive measures against additional Chinese entities and Chinese individuals under the existing restrictive measures regulation would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:03:30.423Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 94,
- "numforecasters": 49,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8614/non-state-actor-develops-a-nuke-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament related to nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nMuch of the concern around nuclear weapons is centered on large-scale nuclear war resulting in [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) and/or the [deaths of a large percentage of the world's population](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/). But nuclear proliferation and the increasing ease of developing nuclear weapons may also increase the risk of smaller conflicts and catastrophes, which could be important in themselves and could perhaps trigger larger-scale conflicts.\nTo date, there is no known incident of a non-state actor having control of a nuclear weapon, but there have been numerous close calls. In 1994, [the US successfully extracted 600kg of weapons-grade uranium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Sapphire) from an unsecured warehouse in Kazakhstan, and the IEAE reports [frequent incidents](https://www-ns.iaea.org/downloads/security/itdb-fact-sheet.pdf) involving theft or unauthorized posession of weapons material. Al-Qaeda and ISIS are notable groups who have [interest or intent in acquiring nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_terrorism#Militant_groups)\nWill a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if, between this question opening and 2030-01-01, an individual or group outside a state's [nuclear chain of command](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_command_and_control) develops a nuclear weapon that is in deployable condition (though it need not be used, detonated, or set on alert). This will not include cases where a deployable weapon is sold, stolen, or inadvertently lost by a state (such scenarios are addressed in a [separate question](LINK)).\n[Dirty bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_bomb) (conventional weapons which use radioactive material to spread fallout) do not qualify for this question; the weapon must be a [nuclear weapon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) in the sense of having nuclear fission or fusion as its primary energy source.\nThis question will resolve on the basis of official statements by governments, government intelligence authorities, or non-governmental nuclear intelligence organizations. In the case of significant disagreement or ambiguity on the points above, resolution may be delayed until 2035-01-01 for clarification, or be resolved ambiguous at the discretion of Metaculus admins.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:03:11.059Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 95,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The Democrat nominee for President in 2024 is Joe Biden",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A184",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "Much higher than conventional wisdom",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-06-18T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be elected governor of Arizona in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2223-who-will-be-elected-governor-of-arizona-in-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "There are 20 Republican-held and 16 Democratic-held state gubernatorial seats up for election in 2022 ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Gubernatorial_elections,_2022), [270 To Win](https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "The Democratic Party candidate",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The Republican Party candidate",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Someone else",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:01:57.066Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 91,
- "numforecasters": 59,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "The Democratic Party candidate, The Republican Party candidate, Someone else"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 1000 questions?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\nMetaculus does not currently uses the mean forecast (although it is displayed on the website). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the average forecast.\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 1000 questions.\nWill mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 1000 questions?\nUsing the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the average forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance. \nThe set of questions used will be the next 1000 binary questions to resolve, which close after this question opens.\nIf the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.21999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:32:01.004Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-09-30T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Between 4 February 2022 and 31 December 2022, will a country formally progress in the NATO accession process?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2259-between-4-february-2022-and-31-december-2022-will-a-country-formally-progress-in-the-nato-accession-process",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Amid high tensions with Ukraine and the West, Vladimir Putin has demanded that NATO freeze its expansion further into Eastern Europe ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2022/01/29/1076193616/ukraine-crisis-russia-history-nato-expansion), [IntelliNews](https://intellinews.com/us-letter-rejects-russia-s-no-nato-enlargement-demand-as-normandy-four-talks-resume-233126/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/why-nato-has-become-flash-point-russia-ukraine)). For the purposes of this question, formal progression in the NATO accession process consists of a country 1) reaching a new stage of any of the seven stages listed under the accession process section ([NATO - Enlargement](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49212.htm)), 2) receiving an invitation to participate in a Membership Action Plan ([NATO - Membership Action Plan](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_37356.htm)), or 3) entering into “Intensified Dialogue” ([NATO - Enlargement](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49212.htm), see \"Aspirant countries\").\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:00:36.491Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 89,
- "numforecasters": 78,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the Republican primary for governor of Georgia in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2257-who-will-win-the-republican-primary-for-governor-of-georgia-in-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Incumbent Governor Brian Kemp, former US Senator David Perdue, and others are battling for the Republican nomination for governor ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia_gubernatorial_election,_2022_%28May_24_Republican_primary%29), [270 To Win](https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/)). The primary election is scheduled for 24 May 2022, with a primary runoff set for 21 June 2022, if needed ([Georgia Secretary of State](https://sos.ga.gov/admin/uploads/2022_State_Short_Calendar9.pdf)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Brian Kemp",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "David Perdue",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Someone else",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:00:40.430Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "numforecasters": 57,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Brian Kemp, David Perdue, Someone else"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8605/most-of-us-ic-favor-covid-lab-leak-hypothesis/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [declassified assessment](https://www.odni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Declassified-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf) by the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) on the origins of SARS-CoV-2 was made available on 2021-10-29 and is based on information available through August 2021. Notably, it found wide agreement among the U.S. IC's [18 organizations](https://www.dni.gov/index.php/what-we-do/members-of-the-ic) on the following:\n---\"SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, probably emerged and infected humans through an initial small-scale exposure that occurred no later than November 2019 with the first known cluster of COVID-19 cases arising in Wuhan, China in December 2019.\" \n---\"We judge the virus was not developed as a biological weapon\" \n---\"Most agencies also assess with low confidence that SARS-CoV-2 probably was not genetically engineered; however, two agencies believe there was not sufficient evidence to make an assessment either way.\" \n---\"China’s officials did not have foreknowledge of the virus before the initial outbreak of COVID-19 emerged\" \nHowever, while \"all agencies assess that two hypotheses are plausible: natural exposure to an infected animal and a laboratory-associated incident,\" the IC \"remains divided on the most likely origin of COVID-19\":\n---\"Four IC elements and the National Intelligence Council assess with low confidence that the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection was most likely caused by natural exposure to an animal infected with it or a close progenitor virus\" \n---\"One IC element assesses with moderate confidence that the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2 most likely was the result of a laboratory-associated incident, probably involving experimentation, animal handling, or sampling by the Wuhan Institute of Virology.\" \n---\"Analysts at three IC elements remain unable to coalesce around either explanation without additional information\" \nThe declassified report states that more information on the earliest cases may \"alter our evaluation of hypotheses\" and that, in the past, the \"identification of animal sources has taken years.\"\nBy 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?\nThis question resolves positively if by 2025-01-01 a majority of U.S. IC organizations that favor either the natural origin or lab leak hypotheses are said to favor the explanation that SARS-CoV-2 originated in a lab in Hubei. This means that only the IC organizations that expressly favor one explanation over the other will be considered for the purposes of this question. \nFor example, in the [most recent declassified assessment](https://www.odni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Declassified-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf), four organizations favor the natural origin hypothesis (\"Four IC elements and the National Intelligence Council assess with low confidence that the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection was most likely caused by natural exposure\"), one IC organization favors the lab origin hypothesis (\"One IC element assesses with moderate confidence that the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2 most likely was the result of a laboratory-associated incident\"), and three organizations do not favor either hypothesis (\"Analysts at three IC elements remain unable to coalesce around either explanation\"). So in this case, there appear to be five IC organizations that favor one explanation or the other — four favor the natural origin hypothesis, and one favors the lab origin hypothesis. Since in this case 1/5 does not constitute a majority (>50%) of U.S. IC organizations that express support for either hypothesis, this would resolve negatively.\nNote that probabilistic statements do not have to be made to constitute an IC organization expressing support for one of two hypotheses. Vague verbiage — e.g. \"moderate confidence that SARS-CoV-2 most likely resulted from\" — would be sufficient to be counted as support for one hypothesis or the other so long as it is clear that one hypothesis is favored over the other. \nThis question will preferentially resolve on the basis of an updated declassified assessment by the U.S. Intelligence Community. However, this can also resolve on the basis of at least three credible media reports indicating that a majority of IC organizations favor one explanation over the other.\nA statement by the IC or credible media reports must come out before 2025-01-01 for this to resolve positively — i.e., this will resolve on the basis of when such information/statement comes out publicly and not when the assessment itself was made.\nNot all IC organizations have to express support for either hypothesis or even need to express a view at all. Rather, a simple majority of the IC organizations that do express that they at least somewhat favor one hypothesis over the other will be considered for resolution.\nIf an equal number of IC organizations favor either hypothesis (e.g. 4 favor the lab leak hypothesis and 4 favor the natural origin hypothesis), this resolves negatively.\nThe definitions of the lab leak and natural origin hypotheses used by the IC at time of resolution are what will be considered — e.g., if the IC considers \"sampling\" by members of a Hubei lab to fall under the lab leak hypothesis, then that is the definition Metaculus will use at time of resolution. However, if the definitions are unclear or ambiguous, then we will consider anything involving laboratory personnel who are doing research-related work of any kind to fall under the purview of the lab leak hypothesis, while all else falls under the natural origin hypothesis. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:02:29.638Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-22T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-03-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1433/will-the-fraction-of-american-18-24-year-olds-enrolled-in-colleges-in-2025-be-10-less-than-were-enrolled-in-2015/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the US, enrollment in 4-year colleges has been steadily increasing since the 1970s, [from around 17.1% to 29.9% in 2015.](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.60.asp )\nDespite this, the economist Bryan Caplan [has recently argued](https://press.princeton.edu/titles/11225.html) that this time spent in college by an increasing proportion of youth is wasteful, as the primary function of education is not to enhance students' skill but to certify their intelligence, work ethic, and conformity — in other words, to signal the qualities of a good employee.\nAs increasing numbers of students get more degrees, the harder it becomes to remain competitive in the job market without spending lots of time in education — essentially creating a prisoner's dilemma in which it is individually rational, but socially harmful to waste evermore time getting degrees. This has made some confident that educational enrolment will only increase over time, including the aforementioned economist [who has been placing bets on this.](https://www.econlib.org/education-the-betting-continues/)\nWill the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in traditional four-year colleges in 2025 be more than 10% lower than in 2015?\nSince the 2015 rate is 29.9%, positive resolution is conditional on a rate 26.91% or less in 2025 [as reported by data from the National Center for Education Statistics](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.60.asp ).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:22:37.636Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 217,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-09-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Osmosis suffer an exploit by March 31st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-osmosis-suffer-an-exploit-by-march-31st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Osmosis suffers an exploit between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Rekt News leaderboard, currently available at https://rekt.news/leaderboard/. \n\nIf Osmosis is listed on the resolution source as a protocol having suffered an exploit during the aforementioned market duration time, regardless of the size or ranking, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIn the case there is ambiguity over the validity of Rekt's Leaderboard, the project's primary communication channels (e.g. Twitter), and other credible crypto publications will be referenced by the arbiters of UMA's Optimistic Oracle.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the protocol is listed on the website.\n\nThe final check for this market will be on April 1, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. If the resolution source is unavailable, it will be checked every 24 hours, and if still unavailable a week later, the market will resolve to “No.”\n\nOnly exploits which have a date listed on the Rekt News Leaderboard between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive) will count.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1223789371379316429399696362195347",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8776210628620683570600303637804653",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.518Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "9",
- "liquidity": "2000.00",
- "tradevolume": "3062.30",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0xDDBb1eA85d8d9C3Ed74Bb544E395112D5A12a838"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many votes to confirm Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair by March 31?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7678/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Jerome-Powell-as-Federal-Reserve-chair-by-March-31",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Jerome Powell (the \"Nominee\") to be Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (the \"Office\"). \nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. \nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; or should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be formally communicated to the United States Senate; the contract identifying the range \"61 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"86 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. The official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source, shall be used to resolve this market. Provided that, once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by any Senator to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "61 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.0818181818181818,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "62 to 64",
- "probability": 0.01818181818181818,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "65 to 67",
- "probability": 0.027272727272727268,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "68 to 70",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "71 to 73",
- "probability": 0.14545454545454545,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "74 to 76",
- "probability": 0.1727272727272727,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "77 to 79",
- "probability": 0.1909090909090909,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "80 to 82",
- "probability": 0.1636363636363636,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "83 to 85",
- "probability": 0.03636363636363636,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "86 or more",
- "probability": 0.06363636363636364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:06:15.534Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 28890
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "61 or fewer, 62 to 64, 65 to 67, 68 to 70, 71 to 73, 74 to 76, 77 to 79, 80 to 82, 83 to 85, 86 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the Republican nomination in the WV-02 House election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7578/Who-will-win-the-Republican-nomination-in-the-WV-02-House-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Republican nomination in the 2022 WV-02 election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Alex Mooney",
- "probability": 0.5981308411214953,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "David McKinley",
- "probability": 0.40186915887850466,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:03:10.961Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 14840
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Alex Mooney, David McKinley"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee for US President in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) \nPresident-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a \"transition figure\" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [\"absolutely\"](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [\"absolutely\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again.\nWill Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee for US President in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the 2024 US Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC.\nThe number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:27:40.339Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 564,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-02-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the existence and smoothness properties of the Navier-Stokes equations in three dimensions turn out to depend on the compactness of the universe over which they are defined?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8049/n-s-existence--smoothness-and-compactness/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Navier%E2%80%93Stokes_existence_and_smoothness) is an important open problem in fluid dynamics and the theory of partial differential equations. It's been designated as one of the Clay Institute's Millennium Prize Problems in 2000 and there is a 1 million dollar bounty available for either proving or disproving the conjecture. In the official introduction to the problem [here](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/navierstokes.pdf), the Clay Institute splits the problem into four statements A, B, C and D; and the problem is considered to have been settled if any one of them is proven.\nImportantly for this question, the statements A and C are about the Navier-Stokes equations defined on the noncompact space , while B and D are about the equations defined on the compact torus .\nWill the existence and smoothness properties of the Navier-Stokes equations in three dimensions turn out to depend on the compactness of the universe over which they are defined?\nThis question resolves positively if before the resolution date of the question there are proofs of either both A and D or both B and C. It resolves negatively if there are proofs of either both A and B or both C and D. If neither event takes place before the resolution date of the question, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.32,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:36:58.597Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-05T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2120-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with [a person of the year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year.\nSince 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in 2000 and 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and [Joe Biden and Kamala Harris](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2020-joe-biden-kamala-harris) in 2020. Before then, the president-elect was also Time person of the year in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1964, 1948, and 1932.\nWill the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?\nThis resolves positively if the Time person of the year in 2024 is the president-elect or both the president- and vice-president-elect, as determined by projected electoral votes as called by the Associated Press.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:33:51.837Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 105,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-09T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-13T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nAssume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, a therapy is developed which at least two peer reviewed published scientific articles report extends the average human expectancy at 70 years old by at least 4 years.\n(In America, the current [life expectancy from 70](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html) is about 15.5 years.)\nA \"therapy\" cannot be a recommendation to diet or exercise. However, a therapy can be a prescription drug taken regularly, a combination of drugs, a series of surgeries, or any other such procedure that is not currently a standard medical recommendation for 70 year olds. For the therapy to count, there must be credible evidence that if all 70 year olds received the therapy, their expected lifespans would go up by at least 4 years on average. Therefore, it is not enough that it extends the lives of some subset of 70 year olds.\nLongevity escape velocity is said to be achieved if more than one half of 70 year olds who take the therapy within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years. In that case, this question resolves positively. If such a therapy is developed but more than half of such 70 year olds are not alive 50 years later, then this question resolves negatively.\nIf no such therapy is developed before 2100, this question resolves ambiguously.\nThe date of development of the therapy is the date of the publishing (anywhere it is published) of the first peer reviewed paper that reports the aforementioned life expectancy results of that therapy.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:56:57.572Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 131,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2150-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Half-Life 3 come out during Gabe Newell's lifetime?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1429/will-half-life-3-come-out-during-gabe-newells-lifetime/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "When Half-Life was released in 1998 it was quickly hailed as one of the greatest first person shooters of all time and its sequel Half-Life 2's release in 2004 was no less successful, spawning two expansions in the form of Half-Life 2: Episode One and Half-Life 2: Episode Two which ended on a cliffhanger in 2007. A third installment was promised but never materialize and since then Half-Life 3 has become something of a running joke in the PC gaming community. \nGabe Newell is the co-founder and president of the Valve Corperation. He's in his mid-fifties and apart from his weight appears to be in fair health. \nGiven the sheer value of the Half-Life franchise it's reasonable to assume that Half-Life 3 will be released at some point in the future but at present it seems that Valve is significantly more interested in pursuing other projects.\nWill Half-Life 3 come out while Gabe Newell is alive? \nQuestion resolves positive if Half-Life 3 (or an equivalent continuation of the series under a different title) releases before Gabe Newell's Death.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:22:22.002Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 95,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-06-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden's approval rating be greater than 41.0% on February 11, 2022? ",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/APPROVE-024",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "PLEASE NOTE: The Expiration Time is 10:00 AM. This is a change from previous iterations when it was 4:00 PM.\n\nIf President Biden's approval rating is greater than || Percentage Points ||% at 10:00 AM on February 11, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see APPROVE in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.. The resolution source is: RealClearPolitics’s average U.S. presidential approval rating (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "yes_bid": 1,
- "yes_ask": 6,
- "spread": 5,
- "shares_volume": 8862
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage rate be above 3.55%?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/FRM-029",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage rate for the week ending February 10, 2022 is above 3.55%, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see FRM in the Rulebook for more details.\n\nThe contract will expire at the sooner of the first 10:05 AM following the release of the data for February 10, 2022, or February 17, 2022. The Last Trading Time will always be 9:55 AM on February 10, 2022. The resolution source is: The 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage rate reported by the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (“PMMS”). (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.030000000000000027,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "yes_bid": 96,
- "yes_ask": 97,
- "spread": 1,
- "shares_volume": 7632
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8663/us-to-make-patient-philanthropy-harder-soon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Donor-advised funds (DAFs) are institutions with which an individual can open an account, contribute financial assets, and invest tax-free before disbursing to an eligible nonprofit. In the United States, DAF accounts are not subject to disbursement requirements; funds in DAF accounts can be reinvested indefinitely before they are disbursed, without the DAF or DAF account facing any penalties or losses of tax privileges. \nOn June 9, 2021, Senators Angus King (I-ME) and Chuck Grassley (R-IA) introduced the Accelerating Charitable Efforts Act, or \"ACE Act\". Among other provisions, the law would require newly created DAF accounts to spend the entirety of their funds within either 15 or 50 years in order for the account and its institutional sponsor to avoid tax penalties. A summary of the bill's provisions, as they currently stand, can be found [here](https://www.cof.org/content/summary-accelerating-charitable-efforts-act-ace-act?_hsmi=133206729&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_ftOeI18wqwDvW2WiYv0lSFHbcjF7VRtI76I8k1WKGQubYgpWj9-CBGLnVG6Un2uEAGmwB_B9Faoyh-CrC2CesXpC9Wi25K5mzbSJJcG06pnUZAJc) and the full text is [here](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/1981/text?r=2&s=1).\nWill a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States by the end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve if such a bill is signed into law before the end of December 31, 2022 (EST), even if it is scheduled not to come into effect until some later date. Further:\n---Disbursement requirements to either new or existing donor-advised fund accounts would resolve this question in the positive. \n---Tying donor-advised funds' tax privileges to disbursement scheduling criteria would resolve this question in the positive. \nThis question was suggested by Phil Trammel, and may affect decision-making on the [Patient Philanthropy Fund](https://founderspledge.com/funds/patient-philanthropy-fund) and adjacent projects. It is a shorter term companion to [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8664/patient-philanthropy-harder-in-the-us-by-30/). In addition to forecasts, comments are also very welcome.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:06:27.425Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-21T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-28T11:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T12:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7431/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office the individual holds upon launch of this market on August 6, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Sebastián Piñera",
- "probability": 0.9150943396226414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jair Bolsonaro",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Guillermo Lasso",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Pedro Castillo",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Iván Duque",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A. M. López Obrador",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alberto Fernández",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Luis Arce",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Daniel Ortega",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nicolás Maduro",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:01:00.827Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 76839
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Sebastián Piñera, Jair Bolsonaro, Guillermo Lasso, Pedro Castillo, Iván Duque, A. M. López Obrador, Alberto Fernández, Luis Arce, Daniel Ortega, Nicolás Maduro"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the S&P 500 rise or fall more than 15% in a single day during the 2020s?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7481/sp-500-to-move-more-than-15-in-day-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [S&P 500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500) is often used as a benchmark for the performance of large-cap companies in the United States. On October 19, 1987 (so-called [Black Monday](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_%281987%29)), the S&P fell 20.47%, the largest movement in its history, which has yet to be surpassed. Generally, when the stock market makes a sudden move, it indicates that there has been some economic shock, such as when the S&P 500 [fell 11.98%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_stock_market_crash) during the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic.\nWill the S&P 500 rise or fall more than 15% in a single day during the 2020s?\nThis question resolves positively if before January 1st 2030 and after January 1st 2020, the S&P 500 moves by more than 15.0% from opening to closing price, in a single day.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:17:00.032Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 106,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-28T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-07-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Germany fail to meet their coal commission’s goals?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2666/will-germany-fail-to-meet-their-coal-commissions-goals/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "After many months of deliberation Germany’s [Commission on Growth, Structural Change and Employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Growth,_Structural_Change_and_Employment) (colloquially called “Coal Commission”) finally published the 300 page report on 26 Jan 2019. In it the commission laid out plans on how the country could to entirely phase out its coal-fired power generation by 2038, with distinct markers in-between: \n---Shut down brown coal based power plants by 3 GW and hard coal based ones by 4 GW by 2022; \n---Decrease brown and hard coal based power plants by another 6 and 7 GW respectively by 2030; \n---The last coal-fired power plant shall be shut down in/by 2038, with an option to fast-track this by three years. \nThis falls short of some of the participating activists goals, but is at least a step in the right direction, especially considering some of Europe’s biggest CO2-emitting power plants are in Germany. \nHowever, policies are often under varying outside pressures, and one coalition may think differently than another.\nIn 2018, [37% of Net public electricity in Germany was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal](37% of Net public electricity in Germany in 2018 was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal.). This is down [13 percentage points compared to 2002](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2002). In its place has come wind power, as Germany [has become the World's third largest producer of wind-power worldwide](https://www.allianz.com/en/press/extra/knowledge/environment/100505-top-ten-wind-power-countries.html).\nWill Germany's net public electricity generated by coal (both hard and brown) remain above 1% by 2039?\nThis question resolves positively if a reputable source reports that Germany's yearly average net public electricity production generated by coal remains above 1% by (and including) 2039.\nHistorical data on Germany's energy production can be accessed through [energy-charts.de](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2019).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:34:02.689Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 168,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2032-05-24T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2039-03-02T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will most dark matter turn out to be primordial black holes?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6608/black-holes-as-dark-matter/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [primordial black hole](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Primordial_black_hole) (PBH) is\na hypothetical type of black hole that formed soon after the Big Bang...Since primordial black holes did not form from stellar gravitational collapse, their masses can be far below stellar mass.\nAs of this writing, no direct observational evidence of PBHs exists.\n[Dark matter](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Dark_matter) is\na form of matter thought to account for approximately 85% of the matter in the universe...Its presence is implied in a variety of astrophysical observations, including gravitational effects that cannot be explained by accepted theories of gravity unless more matter is present than can be seen.\nHowever,\ndark matter has not yet been observed directly, [therefore,] if it exists, it must barely interact with ordinary matter and radiation, except through gravity.\nIt has been suggested ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722)) that PBHs are a natural candidate for dark matter. Although astrophysical measurements and theoretical arguments have put severe constraints ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722), Figure 3) on the possibility that PBHs constitute a significant fraction of dark matter across most of the PBH mass range. However, the \"asteroid mass region\" between - kg has not been ruled out yet, although this may merely \"reflect the difficulty of detecting such light compact objects\" ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722), Section IV).\nWill most dark matter turn out to be primordial black holes?\nThis question resolves positively if the scientific consensus (as defined in the fine print) at resolution date is that primordial black holes represent 50% or more of the mass contained in dark matter in the observable universe today.\nThis question resolves negatively if the consensus is that said figure is less than 50% or that dark matter does not exist.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no consensus.\nThe scientific consensus on the matter will be determined following the protocol outlined in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/).\nThe question posed to the experts will be \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that primordial black holes constitute at least 50% of dark matter? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\"\nThe sample of experts will be determined using the arXiv categories \"Astrophysics of Galaxies\", \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\", and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology\".\nIf the arXiv no longer exists or the volume and/or quality of papers posted have decreased substantially (as judged by Metaculus mods) by resolution date, the sample of experts will be chosen following a similar procedure with details to be determined at the discretion the Metaculus mods. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:49:52.937Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-06-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be elected president of South Korea in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7582/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-South-Korea-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 presidential election in South Korea.\nIf no such presidential election is held in 2022, all contracts shall resolve as No. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yoon Suk-yeol",
- "probability": 0.6310679611650486,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lee Jae-myung",
- "probability": 0.3495145631067961,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sim Sang-jung",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ahn Cheol-soo",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:03:22.146Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 42349
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yoon Suk-yeol, Lee Jae-myung, Sim Sang-jung, Ahn Cheol-soo"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the world be more democratic in 2022 than in 2017?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/590/state-of-democracy-in-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The state of democracy in the world has gradually improved throughout the 20th century and some people seem to take future democratization for granted. Regrettably, a more pessimistic person could also see several upcoming problems. One would be the fading of living memory of the horrors of fascism in Europe and another could be the continued rise of refugee-wave fuelled right-wing populism in Europe.\nAlso potentially troubling is the ability of governments to spy on their citizens like never before due to modern technology and Google's ability to act as a sort of filter to what you see. The advent of AI could only further exacerbate these problems.\nTo measure democracy, we will use the [Democracy Index](https://www.eiu.com/topic/democracy-index) from the Economist Intelligence Unit. The index ranks countries on a 0 to 10 scale.\nOn the unit's scale, the meaning of the numbers is as follows:\n8 ≤ s ≤ 10 : Full democracy\n6 ≤ s ≤ 8 : Flawed democracy\n4 ≤ s ≤ 6 : Hybrid regime\n0 ≤ s ≤ 4 : Authoritarian regime\nMore information can also be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).\nThe 2016 global average democracy index stands at 5.52 (exactly where it was in 2006, so no progress in the last 10 years). Note that the global average is simply the average of all the individual country values; there is no weighting by population.\nIt is asked:Will be the global average Democracy Index in 2022 be higher than the one in 2017?\nShould the Economist Intelligence unit not publish a Democracy Index for year 2022, we will have to resolve ambiguous. If there is significant concern regarding the index's continued neutrality, we should also resolve ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.46,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:13:31.154Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 94,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-11-24T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-03-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-10T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9523/peloton-to-file-for-bankruptcy-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Peloton Interactive, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peloton_%28exercise_equipment_company%29) is an American exercise equipment and media company based in New York City. Peloton's main products are internet-connected stationary bicycles and treadmills that enable monthly subscribers to remotely participate in classes via streaming media.\nIn January 2021, Peloton reached a [peak market capitalization of nearly $50 billion.](https://ycharts.com/companies/PTON/market_cap)\nSince that time, the company's stock has declined by more than 84%, and it has been [dropped from the Nasdaq-100](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/peloton-stock-price-decline-kicked-out-nasdaq-100-index-2022-1). In January 2022, it was reported that the company [is working with consulting firm McKinsey & Co to review its cost structure and may cut some jobs.](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/peloton-reviews-cost-structure-with-mckinsey-may-cut-jobs-cnbc-2022-01-18/)\nFurther, on January 20, 2022, it was reported that Peloton is temporarily halting production of its connected fitness products as consumer demand wanes and the company looks to control costs, according to internal documents [obtained by CNBC.](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/20/peloton-to-pause-production-of-its-bikes-treadmills-as-demand-wanes.html)\nWill Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Peloton Interactive, Inc. files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before 1 January 2023. The question resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. The question resolves negatively if no such petition is filed by that date.\nOnly petitions filed by Peloton Interactive, Inc., or a renamed business entity comprising substantially all of Peloton Interactive, Inc.'s business (as judged by moderators) as of January 2022, will count towards resolution; any bankruptcy protection petitions filed by subsidiary entities or spin-off companies will not count.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:44:04.431Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7132/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Wisconsin",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Wisconsin U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:56:27.250Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 95191
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": ">=90% COVID vaccination among US age 16+ population on 7 Nov 2021",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A165",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-05-07T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will MakerDAO suffer an exploit by March 31st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-makerdao-suffer-an-exploit-by-march-31st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether MakerDAO suffers an exploit between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Rekt News leaderboard, currently available at https://rekt.news/leaderboard/. \n\nIf MakerDAO is listed on the resolution source as a protocol having suffered an exploit during the aforementioned market duration time, regardless of the size or ranking, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIn the case there is ambiguity over the validity of Rekt's Leaderboard, the project's primary communication channels (e.g. Twitter) and other credible crypto publications will be referenced by the arbiters of UMA's Optimistic Oracle.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the protocol is listed on the website.\n\nThe final check for this market will be on April 1, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. If the resolution source is unavailable, it will be checked every 24 hours, and if still unavailable a week later, the market will resolve to “No.”\n\nOnly exploits which have a date listed on the Rekt News Leaderboard between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive) will count.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.04961445446500642361163340767400479",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9503855455349935763883665923259952",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.518Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "39",
- "liquidity": "3000.03",
- "tradevolume": "11424.60",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0xC2429D3DbB7f71CCf47dD0EAeEC4257D94834Ea5"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Amazon.com begin to accept any cryptocurrency for purchases on the US site before 1 October 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2090-will-amazon-com-begin-to-accept-any-cryptocurrency-for-purchases-on-the-us-site-before-1-october-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "As businesses and financial institutions explore ways to integrate cryptocurrencies (cryptos) into their operations, there are conflicting reports about whether Amazon.com is preparing to accept them for its transactions ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/23/amazon-is-hiring-a-digital-currency-and-blockchain-expert.html), [City A.M.](https://www.cityam.com/amazon-definitely-lining-up-bitcoin-payments-and-token-confirms-insider/), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/amazon-no-we-have-no-plans-to-accept-bitcoin-payments)). The acceptance of stablecoins would count, but permitting crypto transactions solely for the exchange of currency, crypto, and other digital assets (e.g., NFTs) would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:05:05.794Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 686,
- "numforecasters": 315,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3409/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2020-to-2023-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPCC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nPathway RCP4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4).\nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPCC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive), the RCP4.5 corresponds to an average of 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z). Over the 2024 to 2027 period, it corresponds to an average of 423.89 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year (ibid.).\nWill the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) over the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 414.52 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n--- \n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n--- \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:48:39.074Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 118,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Uniswap suffer an exploit by March 31st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-suffer-an-exploit-by-march-31st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Uniswap suffers an exploit between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Rekt News leaderboard, currently available at https://rekt.news/leaderboard/. \n\nIf Uniswap is listed on the resolution source as a protocol having suffered an exploit during the aforementioned market duration time, regardless of the size or ranking, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIn the case there is ambiguity over the validity of Rekt's Leaderboard, the project's primary communication channels (e.g. Twitter), and other credible crypto publications will be referenced by the arbiters of UMA's Optimistic Oracle.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the protocol is listed on the website.\n\nThe final check for this market will be on April 1, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. If the resolution source is unavailable, it will be checked every 24 hours, and if still unavailable a week later, the market will resolve to “No.”\n\nOnly exploits which have a date listed on the Rekt News Leaderboard between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive) will count.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.04328558256953793392401126335607899",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.956714417430462066075988736643921",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.518Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "28",
- "liquidity": "4000.00",
- "tradevolume": "14794.84",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0xe15f2BEa60F886f4998C6b4C4Fd4C8c7D6f24443"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will CarbonCure still exist in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4864/will-carboncure-still-exist-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.\n[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will CarbonCure still be selling carbon storage using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:12:07.533Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Japan and China before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8159/clash-between-japan-and-china-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "China and Japan were last at war during World War II.\nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Japan and China before 2024?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable Japanese and Chinese forces.\n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2023-12-31 UTC.\nRelated questions\n--- \n[Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and China before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7403/deadly-clash-between-the-us-and-china/)\n--- \n[Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7451/deadly-clash-between-china-and-india/)\n--- \n[Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and China before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7450/deadly-clash-between-russia-and-china/)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:41:29.309Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Binance default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7235/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-binance/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Binance is a cryptocurrency exchange platform. As of April 2021, Binance was the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world in terms of the trading volume.\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill Binance default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---If the exchange ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their assets &c. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:07:18.780Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Russia further invades Ukraine by EOM February 2022",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A260",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-01-18T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.6039603960396039,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.39603960396039606,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:55:43.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 125753
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will it snow more than 10 inches in New York City in February?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/LSNOWNY-006",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If the total snowfall in New York City between February 01, 2022 and February 28, 2022 (inclusive) is strictly greater than 10 inches, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see LSNOWNY in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions, including how to calculate total snowfall.. The resolution source is: Snowfall totals in Central Park, New York City, New York according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (“NOAA”) (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.86,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4,
- "yes_bid": 9,
- "yes_ask": 12,
- "spread": 3,
- "shares_volume": 11668
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Does P equal BPP?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7962/p-versus-bpp/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [P vs BPP](http://www.openproblemgarden.org/op/p_vs_bpp) question asks whether any problem in [BPP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BPP_%28complexity%29), the class of problems that can be efficiently solved in polynomial time using randomness, [is the same as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BPP_%28complexity%29#Problems) [P](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_%28complexity%29), the class of problems that can be efficiently solved in polynomial time without randomness.\nP is contained in BPP, and BPP is [contained in](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BPP_%28complexity%29#Complexity-theoretic_properties) the [polynomial hierarchy PH](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polynomial_hierarchy) which also contains [NP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NP_%28complexity%29). If [P=NP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_versus_NP_problem), then P=PH and so P=BPP.\nDoes P equal BPP?\nThis question will resolve positively in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal or computer science conference proving that P=BPP. It will resolve negatively if there is such a proof that P is not equal to BPP. If a proof is published, but not confirmed by peer review by 3000, the question may wait to resolve until peer review has reached a consensus. If there is no proof of disproof by the resolve date of 3000-01-01, it will resolve ambiguously.\nIn the event that a proof is published and confirmed by peer review, the question will close retroactively 24 hours before the proof is published or pre-printed.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.050000000000000044,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:33:29.356Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-03T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "3000-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By April 2023, will the US approve cultivated meat for human consumption?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8847/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On November 26, 2020, Singapore became the first country to [approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/). The San Francisco startup, Eat Just, can now sell its cultivated chicken nuggets through its soon-to-be-built, Singapore based restaurants. Its co-founder, Josh Tetrick, hopes that \"Singapore’s decision to approve his company’s “GOOD Meat” chicken nuggets would [spur regulators in the United States and countries in Western Europe](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/business/singapore-lab-meat.html) to move faster to regulate lab-grown meat.\" Another San Francisco-based company, Wildtype, expects commercial sales of its cultured salmon in 2022. Its officials say they will be ready to apply for U.S. regulatory approval to sell its salmon as soon as the USDA and FDA publish the protocols.\nCultivated meat is [growing in popularity](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/02/no-kill-lab-grown-meat-to-go-on-sale-for-first-time), not just for startups, but also for consumers. \nHowever, no country besides Singapore has yet legalized the sale of a cultivated meat product. Thus we ask:\nBy April 2023, will the US approve cultivated meat for human consumption?\nThis question resolves positively if the US approves at least one cultivated meat product for human consumption (or issues a more general approval for a class of cultivated meat products) before April 1, 2023. The question resolves positively even if the approval is later rescinded.\nFor a product to be deemed a \"cultivated meat product\", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).\nResolution is by credible news source, reports from regulators, or statements by relevant cultivated meat companies.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:14:28.312Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-13T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5120/if-tested-would-the-most-powerful-quesion-answering-ai-system-as-of-2022-06-01-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-5th-graders/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nThis is one of a series probing the predicted state-of-the-art in AI systems by pitting them directly against humans in adversarial (against the AI) general intelligence tests. Other questions in this series as of launch ask [whether GPT-3 can outperform human 4th graders on text-based questions,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/) and [whether by 2040 a system will exist that can outperform high-level human STEM grad students on totally general questions.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/)\nHere we ask: assume that as of 2022-06-01 the most capable AI (MCAI) text-based question answer system has been identified, and a generalized intelligence test is administered as described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/), but with 5th graders substituted for the 4th graders. \nQuestion resolves positively if the total of three averaged MCAI scores exceeds the total of the averaged human scores on such a test prior to 2023.\nResolution is ambiguous if no such test is administered prior to 2023-01-01.\nSome fine print:\n--- \nThe fine print from [this question](http://%28https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/%29) apply here with \"MCAI\" substituted for \"GPT-3\" and \"5th graders\" substituted for \"4th graders\".\n--- \nIf there are multiple qualitatively and significantly different competing candidates for the MCAI that (as judged by Metaculus moderators) have comparable probabilities of success, then the test will be assumed to be administered to at least two of the candidates, and the highest score taken.\n--- \nThe entrants are determined as of 2022-06-01, and the systems being tested should be functionally the same as what existed in 2022-06-01.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:17:27.879Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 110,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-26T19:52:08.915000Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the number of fully vaccinated people with a booster dose for COVID-19 in the US reach or exceed 165 million?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2232-when-will-the-number-of-fully-vaccinated-people-with-a-booster-dose-for-covid-19-in-the-us-reach-or-exceed-165-million",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "There's a renewed push in the US to get COVID-19 vaccine booster shots in as many vaccinated people as possible ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/22/us-covid-cases-booster-shots-on-the-rise-as-country-nears-christmas.html)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the CDC (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations, click the \"Booster Doses***\" title on the table). For historical data, visit https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/COVID-19-Vaccinations-in-the-United-States-Jurisdi/unsk-b7fc, click \"Export,\" and select your file preference. See \"US\" for \"Location,\" and booster doses are labeled \"Additional_Doses\" in the file. As of the launch of this question, the number of fully vaccinated people with a booster dose for COVID-19 as of 1 December 2021 was 41,933,410. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Before 15 February 2022",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 15 February 2022 and 31 March 2022",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 April 2022 and 15 May 2022",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 16 May 2022 and 30 June 2022",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not before 1 July 2022",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:01:38.207Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 240,
- "numforecasters": 98,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 15 February 2022, Between 15 February 2022 and 31 March 2022, Between 1 April 2022 and 15 May 2022, Between 16 May 2022 and 30 June 2022, Not before 1 July 2022"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will 'The Batman' gross $160 million or more on the opening weekend in the USA?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-batman-gross-160-million-or-more-on-the-opening-weekend-in-the-usa",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "'The Batman' is an upcoming American superhero film based on the DC Comics character Batman. \n\nThis is a market on how much 'The Batman' (to be released on March 4, 2022) will gross domestically (in the USA) on the opening weekend.\n\nOpening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. \n\nThe “Domestic Weekend” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl67732993/ will resolve this market when checked on March 7 2022, 9 PM ET. \n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 'The Batman' grossed equal to or more than $160,000,000, and to \"No\" otherwise.\n\nIf the box office sales data is a studio estimate, or if there is no data available, the source will be checked every 24 hours until there is conclusive data. If data is not available 1 week after the first check, this market will resolve 50/50. ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.5034247846753575736582544596902508",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.4965752153246424263417455403097492",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.518Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "44",
- "liquidity": "2859.32",
- "tradevolume": "1197.46",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x9C522b215683CE5c3256D38537654e974c32091A"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Larry Hogan run in the 2022 Maryland Republican Senate primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7714/Will-Larry-Hogan-run-in-the-2022-Maryland-Republican-Senate-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Larry Hogan is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Maryland. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Hogan running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:07:52.135Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 4071
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the price of water on the NQH20 hit $2,500 (2021 USD) per acre-foot by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8474/price-of-ca-water-nqh20-over-2500-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Water is an essential commodity and a fundamental precursor for human life. Historically, it’s treated like a public good and is highly subsidized by the government. This can hinder price discovery in markets, which ultimately disjoints supply from demand. Consequently, water has been very cheap, even in regularly arid areas like California or Nevada. Many people believe that water should be traded like other commodities.\nIn late 2018, the [Nasdaq Veles California Water Index](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/index/nqh2o) began tracking the prevailing market price for water transactions, priced weekly in US dollars per acre-foot. Although water won't swing global financial markets like oil or gold does ([it's too cheap and heavy to trade across long distances](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-12-08/why-water-won-t-make-it-as-a-major-commodity)), trading water more locally can aid in price discovery/uncertainty and waste mitigation. Starting in December 2020, futures can now be traded on the index.\nThe [current spot price of water on the NQH20](https://www.waterexchange.com/ca-water-index/) in September 2021 is above $900, up from $500 in September 2020 and $200 in September 2019. [In the past](https://e360.yale.edu/features/as-water-scarcity-increases-desalination-plants-are-on-the-rise), an acre-foot of water from the Colorado River was quoted at $1200 and an acre-foot of water from a desalination facility was quoted at $2200.\nWill the price of water on the NQH20 hit $2,500 (2021 USD) per acre-foot by 2050?\nThis question will resolve positively if the price of water hits $2500, adjusted for inflation to 2021 USD, on the [NQH20](https://waterexchange.com/ca-water-index/) by 2050-01-01, 00:00 UTC. This question resolves negatively if the price of water does not hit $2500 by that date, and it resolves ambiguously if the NQH20 or a similar exchange doesn't continuously track California water prices up until 2050.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.21999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:55:27.241Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-05T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2039-06-27T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/240/pandemic-series-a-significant-flu-pandemic-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Probably the highest risk for a natural pandemic is posed by new versions of influenza. Since 1500 there have been 13 or more influenza pandemics according to [this list](http://www.flu.gov/pandemic/history/), with five in the past 120 years, in 1889, 1918, 1957, 1968 and 1977 (since then there is also a [listing for a 2009 pandemic](http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_11_13/en/) at the WHO.)\nThe definition of a \"pandemic\" varies among sources; here we will define a \"significant pandemic\" to be a single-year epidemic that causes more than about five times the annual [estimated 250K-500K deaths due to seasonal influenza](http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs211/en/). Of the 6 most recent pandemic, probably two (1918 and 1957) fulfill this criterion. We then ask:\nWill there be more than 2.5M deaths worldwide in a single 1-year period due to an influenza strain of natural origin by 2025?\nResolution is positive if numbers reported by the CDC, WHO, or other official organizations put an estimated total number of fatalities above 2.5M in a single 1-year period that ends prior to Jan 1, 2025. (If only ranges are available, question will resolve as positive if the bottom end of the range exceeds 2.5M.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:08:28.524Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 143,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump",
- "probability": 0.3391304347826087,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ron DeSantis",
- "probability": 0.2521739130434782,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nikki Haley",
- "probability": 0.06956521739130433,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Pence",
- "probability": 0.05217391304347825,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Pompeo",
- "probability": 0.03478260869565217,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tim Scott",
- "probability": 0.03478260869565217,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kristi Noem",
- "probability": 0.03478260869565217,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Glenn Youngkin",
- "probability": 0.03478260869565217,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ted Cruz",
- "probability": 0.026086956521739126,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mitt Romney",
- "probability": 0.017391304347826084,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tucker Carlson",
- "probability": 0.017391304347826084,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tom Cotton",
- "probability": 0.017391304347826084,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
- "probability": 0.017391304347826084,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marco Rubio",
- "probability": 0.017391304347826084,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Josh Hawley",
- "probability": 0.017391304347826084,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rick Scott",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Larry Hogan",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:55:12.211Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 22951712
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Tim Scott, Kristi Noem, Glenn Youngkin, Ted Cruz, Mitt Romney, Tucker Carlson, Tom Cotton, Donald Trump Jr., Marco Rubio, Josh Hawley, Rick Scott, Larry Hogan"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a China-Russia war by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8611/china-russia-war-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Wikipedia page on [Russo-Sino foreign relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Russian_relations_since_1991) notes that:\n\"The two countries share a land border which was demarcated in 1991, and they signed a Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation in 2001. On the eve of a 2013 state visit to Moscow by Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin remarked that the two nations were forging a special relationship. The two countries have enjoyed close relations militarily, economically, and politically, while supporting each other on various global issues.\"\nHowever, [researchers for the Middle East Institute write](https://www.mei.edu/publications/middle-east-conflict-zone-between-china-and-russia):\n\"Although China and Russia have strengthened their relationship, there remain obstacles for close cooperation. For example, Russian commentators have increasingly raised concerns about China’s ambitions and influence in Central Asia, an area historically within the Russian sphere of influence. Russian leaders have expressed growing concerns regarding China’s investments in the energy-rich but sparsely-populated Russian Far East. The Middle East is a new theater for potential friction between the two powers.\" \nGiven these two states' large militaries and nuclear arsenals, it is important to gain a clearer sense of the probability of conflict between them.\nWill there be a China-Russia war by 2035?\nFor the purposes of this question, a China-Russia war is defined as the China and Russia collectively suffering [at least 1000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the China and an ally of Russia or between Russia and an ally of the China will not count towards positive resolution.\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO.\nSee also\n--- \n[Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and China before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7450/deadly-clash-between-russia-and-china/)\n--- \n[Will there be a US-China war by 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8362/us-china-war-by-2035/)\n--- \n[Will there be a China-India war by 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8363/china-india-war-by-2035/)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:02:55.399Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3682/health-agencies-to-claim-lab-escape-by-25/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The beginning of 2020 has seen the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus. The majority of the cases were epidemiologically linked to seafood, poultry and live wildlife market (Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market) in Jianghan District of Hubei Province. This suggests that the novel coronavirus has a possible zoonotic origin. [Some](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.08.939660v2.full.pdf) [evidence](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200211-sitrep-22-ncov.pdf) suggests the virus might have originated from bat sub-species. So far, scientists have been unable to conclusively determine the zoological origins of COVID-19.\nIn a [recent (but undated) preprint](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WEf2GYT_eh4zErSMd9eIwo1Uo_m0PRZk/view?usp=sharing), two Chinese scientists claim that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan:\nIn summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus. In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.\nThe preprint implicates the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the only BSL-4 virology lab in China. [Scientists have previously expressed concerns](https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487) about the organisation's ability to monitor the lab.\nOther scientists, such as Trevor Bedford, of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle has disputed the theory of the laboratory origins of COVID-19, [claiming](https://www.ft.com/content/a6392ee6-4ec6-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5): \"There is no evidence whatsoever of genetic engineering that we can find\". ETA (2021-07-06) to clarify, this doesn't 'dispute all lab-origins, just those that involve genetic modification.\nBefore the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before the end of 2024 at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus originated from a Chinese virology laboratory. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a Chinese virology laboratory, this will only count as single claim made by a one public health agency.\nAssessments made by these agencies must broadly state that it is more likely than not that COVID-19 originated from a Chinese virology or biology laboratory, after having been released accidentally or deliberately. Synonyms for probability assessments must be considered by an admin to be broadly consistent with at least a 50% chance. Examples of such synonyms include \"probably\", \"likely\", \"with high probability\" and \"almost certainly\".\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:54:59.837Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1040,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Florida average less than 10,000 new COVID-19 cases per day by March?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/SCASE-020",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If the seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for Florida is below 10,000 for a single day between Issuance and March 01, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. \n\nNote that this Contract may close and expire early. It will expire the first 10:00 AM following the CDC reporting the event has occured, the first 10:00 AM following data being released for March 01, 2022, or 10:00 AM on March 08, 2022.. The resolution source is: The seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for Florida according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.16000000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "yes_bid": 81,
- "yes_ask": 85,
- "spread": 4,
- "shares_volume": 8846
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7211/Who-will-win-the-2022-Florida-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Ron DeSantis",
- "probability": 0.8446601941747572,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Charlie Crist",
- "probability": 0.08737864077669902,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nikki Fried",
- "probability": 0.04854368932038835,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Val Demings",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Annette Taddeo",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:58:15.304Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 630440
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Ron DeSantis, Charlie Crist, Nikki Fried, Val Demings, Annette Taddeo"
- },
- {
- "title": "If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7812/taiwan-to-receive-support-in-china-conflict/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/) asks if there will be conflict between China and Taiwan killing >100 people before 2050.\nConditional on that question resolving positively, will any of the US, Australia, India, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, New Zealand, France, UK, Canada, Germany, or the European Union have attempted a military strike on any Chinese forces in support of Taiwan?\nIf there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?\nThis question resolves positively if (i) [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/) resolves positively and (ii) There are at least three credible news reports of at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of any of the above listed nations and the People's Republic of China, which is reported as having being carried out in support of Taiwan or in retaliation to the PRC's actions regarding Taiwan. Military strikes targeting Chinese civilian targets would also count.\n'Weapon fire' here should not be taken to include 'warning shots' or similar, but only instances where there was a perceived intent to cause harm to opposition forces or military capabilities, as per the news reports used to resolve the question.\nMilitary support on Taiwan's behalf should occur within one year from the date [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/) resolves positively as. This question will also retroactively close to a week before the [other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/) resolves.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:27:24.273Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 93,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-16T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Benedict Cumberbatch win Best Actor at the Oscars?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/OSCARS-012",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If || Nominee || has won || Award || at the 94th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see OSCARS in the Rulebook for more details. The 94th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 27, 2022. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Oscars posting the winners on the website of the Academy and December 31, 2022. . The resolution source is: Award winners at the 94th Academy Awards according to the website of the Oscars. (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.782Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "yes_bid": 18,
- "yes_ask": 22,
- "spread": 4,
- "shares_volume": 3970
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8504/us-sign-killer-robot-ban-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems, as [defined](https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/IF11150.pdf) by the U.S. Department of Defense, are “weapon system[s] that, once activated, can select and engage targets without further intervention by a human operator.” \nSuch systems, colloquially known (especially by their opponents) as \"Killer Robots\" or \"Slaughterbots\" have received negative attention from a number of actors, including a coalition known as the [Campaign to Stop Killer Robots](https://www.stopkillerrobots.org/). \nThese activists appear to prefer a legally-binding instrument of international law, likely in treaty form, as a [\"Killer Robot Ban Treaty\"](https://www.stopkillerrobots.org/stop-killer-robots/we-can-stop-killer-robots/). Such a treaty has received support from several countries, as [tracked by Human Rights Watch](https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/08/10/killer-robots-growing-support-ban), and been discussed at the working group of the UN Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (ibid.). \nFormal and legally-binding arms control has proven elusive however, leading some to question the \"[end of arms control](https://direct.mit.edu/daed/article/149/2/84/27315/The-End-of-Arms-Control).\" Moreover, several of the most powerful militaries in the world, including the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia, [strongly oppose such a ban](https://www.google.com/search?q=Killer+Robot+Ban&rlz=1C5CHFA_enGB978GB978&oq=Killer+Robot+Ban&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i22i30j69i60.2167j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8). \nMoreover, a Killer Robot Ban Treaty faces a [fundamental definitional problem](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3348356), as weapons systems like \"homing munitions\" have elements of autonomy under conventional definitions, but are an integral part of many military operations, and have been in use since World War II, and as broad definitions may exclude many applications of artificial intelligence. Senior defense leaders, including Bob Work, the \"[father of the Pentagon's push for Artificial Intelligence](https://breakingdefense.com/2019/08/campaign-to-stop-killer-robots-unethical-immoral-bob-work/)\" have also criticized such a ban.\nWill the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if the United States Government formally agrees to an international treaty which purports to ban either the possession or the use of Lethal Autonomous Weapons as defined above, and is announced on the [U.S. Department of State Office of Treaty Affairs](https://www.state.gov/treaties-in-force/) or a mainstream news source or wire service (e.g. AP or New York Times).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:56:14.613Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 52,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-25T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T00:01:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which team will win the 2022 NBA Finals?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2179-which-team-will-win-the-2022-nba-finals",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The 2021-22 NBA Finals is scheduled to conclude no later than 19 June 2022 ([Sporting News](https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news/nba-key-dates-training-camp-regular-season-all-star/7i6te7w31znt1jd41xj6rtleg), [NBA](https://www.nba.com/standings)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Atlanta Hawks",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brooklyn Nets",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dallas Mavericks",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Denver Nuggets",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Golden State Warriors",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Los Angeles Clippers",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Los Angeles Lakers",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Miami Heat",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Milwaukee Bucks",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Philadelphia 76ers",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Phoenix Suns",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Utah Jazz",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Another team",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:03:16.641Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 275,
- "numforecasters": 56,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Atlanta Hawks, Brooklyn Nets, Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers, Phoenix Suns, Utah Jazz, Another team"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Russia ban export of rice, wheat or maize before April 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8855/russian-export-ban-on-wheat-/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Export bans are used in some cases by exporting countries to lower domestic prices and increase availability during shortages. However, they also add significant price pressure by further restricting supply, and the introduction of export bans can lead to a cascade. Thus we ask:\nWill Russia ban export of wheat or maize before April 2023?\nThe question resolves positively if Russian officials announce an export ban for either rice or wheat or maize or for two or all three of them. This question will resolve on April 1, 2023.\nAn export ban is defined as a complete prohibition on exporting at least one type of the three grains listed above.\nThe question resolves positively if such an export ban:\n--- \nComes into force at any time between the opening of this question and March 31, 2023, even if it is later lifted (regardless of the duration of the ban). It must actually come into force. If it is only announced but cancelled before coming into force, the question resolves negatively.\n--- \nThe ban must apply to exports anywhere outside Russia, not just a specific region.\n--- \nThe ban can have narrow exceptions, such as allowing exports upon special authorization or in case of a humanitarian crisis. Exceptions will be considered 'narrow' if exports of the affected crops during the ban are less than 5% (in either dollar amount or weight) of what they were in the same period of the preceding year. If the ban is long enough and data are available, this will be checked based on actual export statistics. If this cannot be evaluated based on data, best judgement will be used to estimate whether the exceptions are narrow enough to likely cut exports below 5%.\n--- \nIt is sufficient if the ban restricts e.g. only one specific strain or type of wheat.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively even if the legality of such a ban is contested (as long as it was issued by a government body that might plausibly have some authority over export control, such as the President, Prime Minister, the Cabinet as a whole or a relevant Ministry -- no effort will be made to research the Russian legal system in detail) or it is later struck down by a court.\nThis question will resolve on April 1, 2023, based on at least three credible news reports. In case of doubt, limited effort may be made to investigate primary sources (e.g. machine translated versions of government websites).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:15:09.649Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-27T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will average gas prices be above $3.50 on May 2?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GAS-032",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If the price of gasoline \"All Grades - Conventional Areas\" is strictly greater than $3.50 on May 02, 2022, the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see GAS in the Rulebook for more information.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data (which is generally scheduled for Monday evenings), or May 09, 2022. The market will always close at 4:59 PM on the day of the expected release of the data.. The resolution source is: The price of gasoline \"All Grades - Conventional Areas\" for May 02, 2022, as reported in the Weekly Retail Gasoline and Diesel Prices data published by the EIA. (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.59,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.41000000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "yes_bid": 55,
- "yes_ask": 59,
- "spread": 4,
- "shares_volume": 7476
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3359/will-there-be-a-vegetarian-us-president-by-the-end-of-2036/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nVarious notable people who [have been reported](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_vegetarians) to have adhered to a vegetarian diet at some point during their life, such as:\n---Mahatma Gandhi, Indian civil rights activist and political ethicist \n---Voltaire, French philosopher \n---Nikola Tesla, Serbian-American inventor \nAlthough no U.S. president has been a vegetarian during their time in office, various vegetarian U.S. politicians have run for the office of President, such as [Cory Booker](https://newrepublic.com/article/153085/cory-booker-first-vegan-president), [Ben Carson](https://grist.org/food/meet-the-first-vegetarian-president-not/) and [Dennis Kucinich](https://grist.org/politics/dennis-kucinich-eco-darling-and-veganousted-from-congress/).\nWill there be a sitting U.S. president who is vegetarian during their time in office, by the end of 2036?\nThis resolves positively if any sitting U.S. president, during their time of holding office, claims that they adhere to any vegetarian diet. A vegetarian diet includes [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarianism, [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) and veganism.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:46:31.609Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 247,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Android or IOS before 2023?\nThis question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly downloadable in at least one country before the 31st December 2022.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:32:27.564Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 220,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-09T04:02:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in China by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8364/fatality-in-china-nuclear-attack-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Which countries would be targeted in a nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nSee also similar questions regarding the chance of a fatality in:\n--- \n[India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8367/fatality-in-india-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Pakistan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8368/fatality-in-pakistan-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[North Korea](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8369/fatality-in-n-korea-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Russia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8365/fatality-in-russia-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[US, UK, or France](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8366/usa-uk-or-france-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\nWill there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in China by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in China from an offensive nuclear detonation between 2021-11-01 and 2030-01-01. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:50:57.444Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be elected Milwaukee mayor in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7696/Who-will-be-elected-Milwaukee-mayor-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of Milwaukee, Wisconsin in the 2022 mayoral special election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Cavalier Johnson",
- "probability": 0.8076923076923076,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bob Donovan",
- "probability": 0.08653846153846154,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lena Taylor",
- "probability": 0.05769230769230769,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marina Dimitrijevic",
- "probability": 0.028846153846153844,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Earnell Lucas",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Michael Sampson",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:07:06.043Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 11641
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Cavalier Johnson, Bob Donovan, Lena Taylor, Marina Dimitrijevic, Earnell Lucas, Michael Sampson"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5885/will-elon-musk-walk-on-the-moon-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is an engineer and the founder, CEO, CTO and chief designer of SpaceX, among other ventures.\n[Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) is an American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. It was founded in 2002 with the goal of reducing space transportation costs to enable the colonization of Mars.\n[The SpaceX Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) system is a fully-reusable, two-stage-to-orbit, super heavy-lift launch vehicle under development by SpaceX since 2012, as a privately-funded private spaceflight project.\nSpaceX could potentially launch commercial payloads using Starship no earlier than 2021. In April 2020, [NASA selected a modified crew-rated Starship system](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions/) as one of three potential lunar landing system design concepts to receive funding for a 10-month long initial design phase for the NASA [Artemis program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program).\nMusk has stated that the [Apollo program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_program) astronauts, who visited the moon between 1969 and 1972, are personal heroes of his, and that [they inspired him to create SpaceX.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8P8UKBAOfGo&ab_channel=TimofeyPyshnov) As of December 2020, no human has set foot on the moon since Gene Cernan and Harrison Schmitt left the lunar surface on December 14, 1972.\nMusk has acknowledged a personal desire to experience space travel. Asked in a December 2020 interview when his first trip to orbit would take place, [Musk stated that it would be \"possibly in two or three years,\"](https://youtu.be/AF2HXId2Xhg?t=751) and has previously stated that if he has to die, [he would prefer to die on Mars rather than on Earth... \"Just not on impact.\"](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/tech/2013/03/elon-musk-die-mars)\nAs of late 2020, [Elon Musk is the 2nd-richest person on Earth](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/elon-musk-net-worth-bill-gates-second-richest-tesla-2020-11-1029832827), with substantial capacity to privately fund passion projects if he so chooses.\nWill Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if before 1 January 2030, Elon Musk has personally set foot on the lunar surface. Musk must stand on the surface of the moon, outside any landing system that delivered him there.\nThis question resolves negatively if Musk does not stand on the moon's surface before 1 January 2030.\nUTC time shall be used for this question. Musk need not travel on any SpaceX system for a positive resolution; any outcome in which Musk stands on the lunar surface before 1 January 2030 triggers positive resolution. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:30:30.347Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 249,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8405/us-tax-on-unrealized-capital-gains-212023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From the [New York Times](https://archive.md/ofQjp),\nAfter months of negotiations over President Biden’s big social spending bill, congressional Democrats looking for ways to pay for it have zeroed in on America’s billionaires.\nTo squeeze more money from the very wealthy, they are looking toward a change in the tax code that would reinvent how the government taxes investments — at least for the few hundred richest families — and lean against the accumulation of enormous fortunes in the future.\nDetails of the plan remain sparse as of Monday, and negotiations over the overall spending package are fluid. But the idea from the Senate Finance Committee chairman, Ron Wyden, is essentially to apply a more stringent version of capital gains taxes on the billionaire class. [...]\nThe Wyden plan would require the very wealthy — those with over $1 billion in assets or three straight years of income over $100 million — to pay taxes based on unrealized gains. At that tier of wealth, the logic goes, the usual considerations arguing against a so-called “mark-to-market” capital gains tax don’t apply. Those are sophisticated taxpayers with access to loans or other source of liquidity, for example, who hold assets that for the most part can reasonably be valued annually.\nWill a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if before February 1st 2023, a federal law is passed requiring at least some citizens in the United States to pay a tax on unrealized capital gains. Unrealized capital gains are defined as asset appreciation values that could in theory be \"realized\", or sold to yield a profit.\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:53:53.861Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 99,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-29T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by 31st December 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6660/street-by-street-voting-on-uk-zoning-laws/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Policy Exchange recently released a paper on “Street Votes” where each street can decide their own planning laws and hence gain the benefits (or not) of higher value housing on their street.\nThe paper is [here](https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/Strong-Suburbs.pdf).\nWill the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by 31st December 2024\nAn official government announcement is sufficient e.g. statement in parliament or press release on [gov.uk](http://gov.uk)\nA pilot scheme will count as positive resolution.\nThe zoning laws to be voted on must include at least the following options:\n--- \nNumber of floors\n--- \nPlot use\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:51:32.539Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 150,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-25T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-02-12T00:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T00:01:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8540/global-agricultural-shortfall-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Denkenberger & Pearce (2016)](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs13753-016-0097-2.pdf) write:\n\"A number of catastrophic events could cause a roughly 10% global agricultural shortfall, including a medium-sized asteroid/comet impact (Napier 2008), a large but not super volcanic eruption, full-scale nuclear war if the impacts are less than anticipated (Turco et al. 1990), regional nuclear war (for example, India-Pakistan (Ozdogan et al. 2013)), abrupt regional climate change (Valdes 2011), complete global loss of bees as pollinators (Aizen et al. 2009), a super crop pest or pathogen, and coincident extreme weather, resulting in multiple breadbasket failures (Bailey et al. 2015).\"\nBut there's uncertainty about how likely each of those events is, how likely a 10% global agricultural shortfall is given each event, and how likely it is that such a shortfall will occur for some other reason.\nWill there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?\nThe question will be resolved positively if the yearly total global agricultural crop yield for the calendar year 2022 or 2023 (as reported by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization) is at least 10% lower than agricultural production in the previous calendar year (2021 or 2022, respectively) was. \nThe reason for the shortfall does not matter (e.g., it does not have to be related to nuclear conflict).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:58:50.533Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 50,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Rochelle Walensky remain CDC director through the end of the year?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7697/Will-Rochelle-Walensky-remain-CDC-director-through-the-end-of-the-year",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rochelle Walensky holds the office of Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention without interruption until the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:07:10.324Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 7246
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a non-profit corporation?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8328/non-profit-organization-develops-first-agi/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) asks When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?.\nToday, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. Other possible institutions might be nationalized corporations, governments generally, and non-profit organizations.\nFor example, OpenAI was initially founded as a non-profit organization \"so that they could focus its research on creating a positive long-term human impact.\" ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI#Motives))\nWill the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a non-profit corporation?\nThis question will resolve positively if the AI system that resolves the question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) was developed by a research group from a non-profit organization.\nIf the respective AI system is developed under a collaborative effort between two or more different institutions, the question resolves positively for both. For example, if OpenAI and UC Berkeley's CHAI had joined forces for the responsible project, this would count for both for-profit corporation and university. \nSister questions\n---[Nationalized organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8325/nationalized-organization-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Government project develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8327/government-project-develops-first-agi/) \n---[University group develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8326/university-group-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Corporation develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8324/corporation-develops-first-agi/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:49:39.634Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Facebook is the world's most popular social media platform. In recent years, they have added a number of domains to their filter. Filtered domains cannot be posted on the site. While many such filtered domains are spam-related, some [hate groups](https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/groups) have also been banned. For instance, American Renaissance, an American white supremacist organization, has its links blocked on Facebook along with related sites.\nYoutube has similarly undertaken such bans. Previously this year, they banned the Stefan Molyneux show channel ([see prior question on his Twitter also being banned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4733/will-stefan-molyneux-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/)). Because of such bans, users who like such content are migrating to other sites, such as Bitchute, which in general are much more sympathetic to the far-right. Bitchute has been described by the [Anti-Defamation League](https://www.adl.org/blog/bitchute-a-hotbed-of-hate) as \na hotbed for violent, conspiratorial and hate-filled video propaganda, and a recruiting ground for extremists.\nthus raising the question of whether Facebook will ban links to these sites too.\nWill Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?\n---If before 1st January 2023, Facebook has added [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) to their filtered list, disallowing users to send messages and write posts with links to the domain, this resolves positively. Otherwise, negatively. \n---If [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) is defunct before 2023, it resolves ambiguous. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.34,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6599999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:25:55.220Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 136,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 23 June 2022, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2233-before-23-june-2022-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his agenda are facing a number of challenges, including Brexit, COVID-19, and scandals ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/boris-johnsons-infrastructure-schemes-will-face-opposition), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/boris-johnson-bad-month-polls-4606bf26-c5bc-415f-aa3f-1efe959ee36c.html), [France 24](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20211219-uk-brexit-negotiator-frost-resigns-in-further-blow-to-pm-johnson), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/dec/14/uk-covid-live-lateral-flow-tests-unavailable-online-england-boris-johnson-booster-coronavirus-latest-updates)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:01:36.376Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1099,
- "numforecasters": 375,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-j-trump-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination-1",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald J. Trump wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.4276141934977201087056085941760549",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.5723858065022798912943914058239451",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.519Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "77",
- "liquidity": "3487.60",
- "tradevolume": "2092.98",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0xf810652Ca2F32CECF67c71adFB534b98B567F344"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, will the Supreme Court explicitly overrule Roe v. Wade?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2214-in-dobbs-v-jackson-women-s-health-organization-will-the-supreme-court-explicitly-overrule-roe-v-wade",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The Supreme Court is reviewing what could be the biggest abortion case since its decision in Planned Parenthood v. Casey in 1992 ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2021/19-1392), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/2021/12/majority-of-court-appears-poised-to-uphold-mississippis-ban-on-most-abortions-after-15-weeks/), [C-SPAN](https://www.c-span.org/video/?516168-1/dobbs-v-jackson-womens-health-organization-oral-argument&live)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2021 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:02:14.667Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 200,
- "numforecasters": 97,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9532/china-leads-in-embryo-selection-for-iq/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/). A [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7925/china-and-designer-babies/) asked if most of the first 100 newborns selected for intelligence would be born in China.\n[Some commentators](https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838) have suggested that China, which has a quickly growing [biotechnology industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology_industry_in_China), will embrace embryo selection for intelligence. The [Beijing Genomic Institute](https://www.vice.com/en/article/5gw8vn/chinas-taking-over-the-world-with-a-massive-genetic-engineering-program) had a [cognitive genomics project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BGI_Group#Cognitive_Genomics_Project), though it was never completed. In 2019, Chinese scientist He Jiankui created the world's first CRISPR babies, but the Chinese government [jailed him for three years](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-50944461). Nevertheless, China has embraced [embryo selection for diseases](https://www.nature.com/articles/548272a) through preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD). While polling on mainland China is [restricted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_research_and_opinion_polling_in_China), a [2020 Pew poll](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) found Taiwan and Singapore, which like China are mostly [Han](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Han_Chinese), have a relatively high level of support for \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence.\nWill China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively if China is the first country with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\nMoreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:44:30.258Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 94,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be prime minister of the Czech Republic on July 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7471/Who-will-be-prime-minister-of-the-Czech-Republic-on-July-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Prime Minister of the Czech Republic upon the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/01/2022 6:00 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Petr Fiala",
- "probability": 0.9514563106796116,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrej Babiš",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ivan Bartoš",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tomio Okamura",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Vojtěch Filip",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jan Hamáček",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:01:12.892Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 21579
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Petr Fiala, Andrej Babiš, Ivan Bartoš, Tomio Okamura, Vojtěch Filip, Jan Hamáček"
- },
- {
- "title": "The Ohio Senator elected in 2022 is Jim Jordan",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A83",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "Seems pretty unlikely now per reporting that Jim Jordan does not want to run",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-01-25T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7065/us-sale-of-cultivated-meat-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On November 26, 2020, Singapore became the first country to [approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/). The San Francisco startup, Just, can now sell its cultivated chicken nuggets through its soon-to-be-built, Singapore based restaurants. The CEO and co-founder of Eat Just, Josh Tetrick, says he plans to expand from the company's one restaurant, to five, and eventually to ten. He hopes that \"Singapore’s decision to approve his company’s “GOOD Meat” chicken nuggets would [spur regulators in the United States and countries in Western Europe](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/business/singapore-lab-meat.html) to move faster to regulate lab-grown meat.\"\nIn the United States, cultivated meat is currently co-regulated by the Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The [regulatory framework](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/3/9/18255806/fda-usda-lab-grown-meat-cell-based-vegan-vegetarian), established in 2019, provides a path to market for cultivated meat products. However, so far, no cultivated meat products have been approved under this framework.\nWill at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if any cultivated meat product is first for sale for purposes of human consumption, in any state of the United States by 2023-01-01. Positive resolution is consistent with there being labelling and other restrictions on its sale. However, the product must be available for sale to the general public. This question resolves on the basis of credible media reports.\nFor a product to be deemed a \"cultivated meat product\", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:02:42.857Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 210,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-22T23:26:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:26:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will OpenSea have more volume in February ‘22 than it did in January ‘22?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opensea-have-more-volume-in-february-22-than-it-did-in-january-22",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether OpenSea’s Ethereum Volume in February 2022 will exceed its Ethereum Volume it had in January 2022 according to the “OpenSea monthly volume (Ethereum)” section on https://dune.xyz/rchen8/opensea. \n\nThe source above will be checked daily at 12:00 PM ET, and finally on March 2, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. \n\nIf on any of the checks the OpenSea volume in February is greater than that of January, the market will resolve “Yes.” If the USD-denominated OpenSea trading volume on Ethereum in February is less than or equal to that of January on all of the checks, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIf the link to the source changes, the new links will be used as sources. If the source is unavailable at the time of the last check, DappRadar will be used instead.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1290851796135878383436648424314714",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8709148203864121616563351575685286",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.518Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "125",
- "liquidity": "2418.94",
- "tradevolume": "6609.81",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0xd65D8146Fdfdb1B694f8a11d18672ABD86963b8f"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a new U.S. Supreme Court justice be confirmed in 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-new-us-supreme-court-justice-be-confirmed-in-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Senate confirms and names a new justice to the Supreme Court on or before December 31 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nPlease note, if a new justice is announced before the resolution date, but it comes into effect afterwards, this market will resolve to “Yes”.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.868777698039563723679418435097304",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.131222301960436276320581564902696",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.517Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "162",
- "liquidity": "600.00",
- "tradevolume": "11836.14",
- "stars": 4
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x511d011A82347ecF56F932705c5B6C82d578E0D1"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8534/north-korean-icbm-before-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nAccording to [a BBC article released on 19-10-2021](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58963654):\n\"North Korea has carried out a flurry of missile tests in recent weeks, including of what it said were hypersonic and long-range weapons. Some of these tests violate strict international sanctions. The country is specifically prohibited by the United Nations from testing ballistic missiles as well as nuclear weapons. The UN considers ballistic missiles to be more threatening than cruise missiles because they can carry more powerful payloads, have a longer range and can fly faster.\"\nSee also [a list of North Korean missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests).\nWill North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?\nThis question will resolve positively if a missile (ICBM) with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.)\nNote that:\n--- \nThe missile does not have to be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice\n--- \nEither a test launch or a launch as part of an attack could count toward positive resolution\n--- \nFor positive resolution, the missile does not have to actually be hosting a nuclear warhead when launched, as long as it is capable of hosting a nuclear warhead\nSee also:\n*[Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7453/fatality-from-nuclear-detonation-in-n-korea/)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:58:19.658Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at year end 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7444/elon-musk-worlds-richest-person-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Elon Musk](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is the founder and/or CEO of several companies, including electric vehicle company Tesla, space exploration and nascent Internet provider company SpaceX, tunneling company The Boring Company, and brain interface company Neuralink. He is currently the third richest person in the world, with a net worth of $167 billion, according to [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/).\nHe [was briefly the richest person in the world](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/elon-musk-is-richest-man-on-the-planet-mukesh-ambani-ranks-eighth/article33968896.ece/amp/) in early 2021.\nThis question asks if he will hold that status as of year end 2025.\nWill Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at year end 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if Elon Musk is the world's richest person according to the [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/) as of December 31st, 2025. It resolves negatively otherwise. \nIf the Bloomberg Billionaires Index is no longer published, the [Forbes Real Time Billionaires](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#13e9791c3d78) list should be used. If neither list is published, this will resolve according to the source identified by a consensus of Metaculus moderators; if there is no clear consensus, then the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:15:00.296Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 175,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-27T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9612/joe-rogan-leaves-spotify/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Several musicians and podcast producers have recently [cut ties with Spotify](https://www.forbes.com/sites/petersuciu/2022/01/31/spotify-wont-pull-joe-rogan--but-comedian-open-to-change-and-even-issued-apology-to-neil-young/?sh=171804ba5c2e), insisting that Spotify ban or censor Joe Rogan's podcast, The Joe Rogan Experience. Spotify's stock price [has fallen](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SPOT:NYSE) from January 1 to January 30 2022, although it [rebounded](https://www.reuters.com/technology/spotify-says-it-will-add-content-advisory-podcasts-that-discuss-covid-2022-01-31/) following a public apology from Rogan.\nWill Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?\nThis question will resolve positively if Joe Rogan formally stops publishing a podcast on Spotify any time between January 1, 2022 to February 1, 2023. This would include Rogan moving to a different platform, getting banned from Spotify, or voluntarily ending his podcast. Public statements by Rogan or Spotify will qualify as a resolution source.\nIn the case of ambiguity, if there are any episodes of a Joe Rogan podcast uploaded during January 2023, this question will resolve negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:47:32.774Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-02-02T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-09-30T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-30T19:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 nomination for Dallas County district attorney?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7690/Who-will-win-the-2022-nomination-for-Dallas-County-district-attorney",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for District Attorney of Dallas County, Texas.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "John Creuzot",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Elizabeth Frizzell",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:06:48.813Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 673
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "John Creuzot, Elizabeth Frizzell"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6730/dogecoin-worth-1-on-2025-01-01/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Dogecoin was originally founded as the result of a joke made by Jackson Palmer in November 2013. When he was contacted by programmer Billy Markus, they decided to turn the joke into a reality. Dogecoin was designed to be a friendly, more approachable form of cryptocurrency that could reach users who may have been put off by the cold complexity of Bitcoin.\n[Commodity.com](http://Commodity.com) provides an introduction to Dogecoin in the post: [Will Dogecoin go to the Moon?](https://commodity.com/cryptocurrency/dogecoin/)\nDogecoin has one of the largest and most active communities in the cryptocurrency world. This community has come together to fund a number of charitable efforts and other projects, such as [sponsoring NASCAR race cars](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/speed-much-wow-dogecoin-reappearance-071125161.html). \nOne of the most common uses for Dogecoin was as a [tipping service](https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/dogepal-is-the-new-dogecoin-doge-anonymous-tipping-service/). Users on platforms such as Reddit would tip other users for posts or contributions that they believed deserved recognition, similar to a social media “like,” but with a bit more impact. But, without a sustainable business model, popular Dogecoin tipping services were [going out of business](https://gizmodo.com/reddit-users-lose-real-money-after-meme-currency-bot-di-1795125165). \nIn 2021 Dogecoin saw a major price surge thanks to an influx of users chasing GME-style highs. This run was given a further boost when Elon Musk began [tweeting about Dogecoin](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1364560733472579591), calling it the “cryptocurrency of the people.”\nFurther reference: [Dogecoin Subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/dogecoin/)\nWill meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?\nIn order for this question to resolve positively, on January 1, 2025, the price of Dogecoin listed on Coinbase must be $1.00 (USD) or higher. A temporary price of $1 or higher at any time on January 1, 2025 will count toward positive resolution. This question will use 2025 dollars, not 2021-adjusted.\n[Coinbase Price Chart](https://www.coinbase.com/price/dogecoin)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:53:23.638Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 390,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-03T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will BitMEX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7238/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-bitmex/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "BitMEX is a cryptocurrency exchange and derivative trading platform.\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill BitMEX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---If the exchange ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their assets &c. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:07:34.247Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. \nSince 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question \"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?\" with \"Leave,\" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with \"Remain.\" The \"Leave\" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.\nHowever, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for \"Remain.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)\nThe fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future. \nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will Scotland cease to be a part of the United Kingdom?\nFor this question to resolve positively, there must continuously be a geopolitical entity known as the United Kingdom until at least such point that another geopolitical entity known as Scotland is declared formally by its de facto Head of Government to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, and that state of independence must arise before 1 January 2025.\nIf, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until 1 January 2025 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.\nIn the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.\nIn the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.\nIn the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:31:55.899Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 872,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8334/us-office-construction-spending-77b-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The COVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on commercial real estate, particularly retail and hospitality locations, as well as urban office spaces. In April 2020, Gallup found that [69% of full-time employed americans were working from home](https://news.gallup.com/poll/348743/seven-u.s.-white-collar-workers-still-working-remotely.aspx). Some wonder whether this is the beginning of the end of major downtown office buildings, but [Andra Ghent, associate professor of finance at UNC, predicts](https://kenaninstitute.unc.edu/kenan-insight/how-will-covid-19-affect-commercial-real-estate/) \"it’s unlikely that increased technology adoption will affect prime office space in core downtown areas in major cities, where location brings important benefits through networking and access to skilled workers.\"\nIn March 2020 US Spending on office construction and maintenance reached an all-time high of $95 Billion, and then declined over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns to $80 Billion in December 2020. Office construction has gone through similar cycles in the past, reaching a low of $34 Billion in February 2011 following the 2008 financial crisis.\nWill spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if the average seasonally-adjusted annual office construction spending in 2022 is less than $77 Billion [according to the US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/econ/currentdata/dbsearch?program=VIP&startYear=2002&endYear=2021&categories=A02XX&dataType=T&geoLevel=US&adjusted=1&submit=GET+DATA&releaseScheduleId=).\nThis question may resolve after 2023-07-01 to account for revisions by the US Census Bureau. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.32,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:50:00.680Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-21T10:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-22T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-07T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7131/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Nevada",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.5544554455445545,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.44554455445544555,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:56:21.518Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 103707
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1554/will-the-us-per-capita-productivity-rate-of-science-nobel-prizes-fall-below-that-of-germany-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "How do you quantify the scientific productivity of a nation? One way is to detail the number of science Nobel prizes that have been awarded to that country. According to a May 2018 Royal Society Open Science article, '[An empirical study of the per capita yield of science Nobel prizes: is the US era coming to an end?](http://rsos.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/5/5/180167)' we now have enough data on the distribution of Nobel prizes by country to provide a reliable analysis of the long term trends. Claudius Gros, of the Institute for Theoretical Physics in Goethe University Frankfurt, examined Nobel prizes awarded for chemistry, physics, physiology or medicine indexed by their country of origin. \nThe cumulative number of physics, chemistry and medicine Nobel prizes per country. Prizes are attributed to the respective country according to the nationality of the recipients at the time of the announcement, with prizes obtained by more than one recipient accordingly divided.\nWhile the US has an impressive number of science Nobel Prizes, Gros notes that “the US population increased from 76 to 327 million during 1901–2017”. When you consider the number of Nobelists per population size, then the UK has the more impressive record (followed by Germany, then the US and France). ([figure](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/cms/attachment/717446eb-6cc3-42ac-9441-e29ed52321e0/rsos180167f02.jpg))\nGros then uses this model to predict the future productivity rate of these countries. ([figure](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/cms/attachment/eacb4040-57ac-4ef6-857f-b95fbc846afc/rsos180167f03.jpg))\nThis leads Gros to make the claim, “Our model predicts that the US per capita productivity rate will have fallen below that of Germany by 2025 and below that of France by 2028”. Will this claim turn out to be true? For our purposes, we will focus on the first half of this claim, on whether the US per capita science Nobel Prize productivity rate will fall below that of Germany by 2025 as the model predicts. \nQuestion resolves as positive if the per-capita number of science Nobel Prizes awarded to Germans between 2020 and 2025, inclusive, exceeds that of the US.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.42,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5800000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:26:17.964Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 105,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-18T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-11-01T04:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. annual inflation on January 2022 exceed 7.2%?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-annual-inflation-on-january-2022-exceed-7p2",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on a year-to-year inflation, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), for the 12 months ending January 2022. The inflation is measured by a change in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U, for all items) before seasonal adjustment.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the index increased by more than 7.2% from January 2021 to January 2022 and \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS January 2022 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled for release on February 10 2022, 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nNote, that this market refers to the all items index increase for the 12 month period, before seasonal adjustment.\n\nThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.\n\nNote, that the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 5.8%, 6.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.4636279634325903867378642001167741",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.5363720365674096132621357998832259",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.517Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "48",
- "liquidity": "5447.06",
- "tradevolume": "2575.69",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x32a806fa355182cC07468Ad32d85DBaBDb46dC72"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8835/country-caps-on-us-visas-end-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the U.S., immigration visas are limited to 140k per year. Of those, a maximum of 7% from the same country are permitted. For countries such as China and India, this means there are backlogs that can exceed the lifetime of an applicant.\nThe proposed [2021 EAGLE Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3648) would have [removed the 7% per-country cap](https://immigrationforum.org/article/bill-summary-the-eagle-act/) for employment-based visas. The bill would also raise per-country caps for family-based green card petitions from 7% to 15%. This question is focused on the employment-based visa per-country limit.\nWill the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?\nResolves positively if there are credible news stories or government publications reporting that in U.S. immigration law, the per-country caps on employment-based visas have been phased out before 2025.\nPositive resolution does not require changing the overall 140k limit on all countries in sum, only the removal of the per-country cap on employment-based visas. \nIt also does not require other types of visas to have their country-caps changed or removed.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:13:41.736Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 44,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-21T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8750/will-space-debris-kill-an-astronaut-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Space debris is accumulating in earth's orbit, which is a problem because, \"[due to its very high speed in orbit—even relatively small pieces can damage or destroy satellites in a collision.](https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/debris-in-brief-factsheet.pdf)\"\nAs an example, Russia's November 2021 anti-satellite test created over a thousand pieces of debris, a cloud of which came close to the International Space Station, \"forcing astronauts to take shelter for hours in a pair of spacecraft capable of returning them to Earth\" [according to the New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/15/science/russia-anti-satellite-missile-test-debris.html).\nEvasive manoeuvres can help, but [according to NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/news/orbital_debris.html), we can track discrete objects >5cm, but debris shields are effective only for objects <1cm. This means there are objects between 1 cm and 5cm that can severely damage human spacecraft, but cannot be tracked.\nSpace debris could kill humans in three ways. First, space debris could damage human spacecraft and kill one or more of its occupants. Second, re-entering space debris could kill humans on earth. Third, space debris could take out satellites linked to critical infrastructures and thereby cause death on earth via failure of such infrastructure. This question only focuses on the first risk — i.e. astronaut fatalities in space. \nWill there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?\nThis question will resolve positively if a mainstream news source or wire service (AP, New York Times, etc.) report that space debris has killed at least one human by January 1, 2025. \nDirect death in space (human-occupied spacecraft) will count towards positive resolution. Direct death on earth from re-entering debris (e.g. hitting someone on the head) will not count. If an astronaut dies on earth from space-debris injuries sustained in space, the question will resolve positively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:10:43.746Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-02T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T14:52:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:52:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Jessie Buckley win Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/OSCARS-001",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If || Nominee || has won || Award || at the 94th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see OSCARS in the Rulebook for more details. The 94th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 27, 2022. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Oscars posting the winners on the website of the Academy and December 31, 2022. . The resolution source is: Award winners at the 94th Academy Awards according to the website of the Oscars. (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "yes_bid": 2,
- "yes_ask": 4,
- "spread": 2,
- "shares_volume": 2988
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1378/will-israel-be-the-fourth-country-to-soft-land-on-the-moon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Even though the [Google Lunar X Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Lunar_X_Prize) ended without a winner, many of the competitors continue in their attempts to reach the moon. One of them is [SpaceIL](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceIL#Status), a nonprofit organization in Israel. They plan to launch on a Falcon 9 in December, as a secondary payload, and reach the Moon in February 2019.\nAccording to [Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-moon-probe-lunar-landing-2018-8):\nSpaceIL, a nonprofit organization founded by Israeli billionaire Morris Kahn, is on track to pull off the first commercial lunar landing early next year. This would make Israel the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the moon; only the US, Russia, and China have landed robots there. (Japan, India, and Europe have crashed probes into the lunar surface, though.) \nA close competitor is India's Chandrayaan-2, the subject of another Metaculus [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/975/will-indias-chandrayaan-2-mission-to-the-moon-blast-off-before-2018-is-out/). \nWill Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon?\nResolution is positive if SpaceIL (or, much less likely, another Israeli effort) is the next to achieve a gentle landing of a spacecraft on the Moon; the spacecraft must be intact after landing, but no conditions are placed on its operation.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:21:29.289Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 137,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-24T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-12-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-05-01T04:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3241/will-the-iau-rework-its-definition-of-planetary-status-by-jan-1-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [International Astronomical Union](https://www.iau.org/) defines a planet [1] as a celestial body that\n1--is in orbit around the Sun, \n2--is massive enough per material strength to be an ellipsoid (in hydrostatic equilibrium) and, \n3--has \"cleared the neighborhood\" around its orbit. \nA debate has emerged in the planetary sciences over whether the community should instead embrace a purely geophysical definition of a planet (a substellar body in hydrostatic equilibrium), stated in more detail here: [2]. This point of view has been gaining some traction, e.g. in Metzger et al. 2018 [3].\nThe chief concerns with the IAU's definition are that it excludes exoplanets (they do not orbit the sun), small bodies in hydrostatic equilibrium (e.g. Pluto, Ceres, Titan, Quaoar), and that \"clearing the neighborhood\" is an imprecise definition that has many caveats (e.g. coorbital bodies/quasi-satellites). There have been attempts to rigorously define orbital clearing (e.g. Margot 2015 [4]), but they have not yet been adopted by the IAU.\nThe chief concerns with the geophysical definition are that it elides dynamical concerns (which are integral to planet formation), includes ellipsoidal satellites (e.g. Titan, Triton, Ganymede) as planets, and will result in having >50 planets, with that number growing as time goes on.\nThis debate conceals a difference in methodological approach - considering whether small, ellipsoidal (currently) subplanetary bodies* are more interesting in particular (as geophysical entities, like Earth) or in aggregate (as orbital populations, like sub-ellipsoidal asteroids). These concerns are, to first order, native to planetary geoscientists and planetary astronomers/dynamicists respectively. The geophysical and IAU definitions are both used in the literature, again employed ~along subdisciplinary lines.\nThis now brings us to the question: given the ongoing debate and reality of publishing differences the planetary sciences, \nwill the IAU revise its definition of a planet before 2025?\nResolution details\nIAU's 2006 definition is:\nA “planet” is defined as a celestial body that (a) is in orbit around the Sun, (b) has sufficient mass for its self-gravity to overcome rigid body forces so that it assumes a hydrostatic equilibrium (nearly round) shape, and (c) has cleared the neighbourhood around its orbit. \nWe'll refer to this as the \"original definition\". This question resolves positively if any of the following occurs:\n---Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are substantially revised; or \n---Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are removed; or \n---Another part not included in the original definition is included that requires a planet to have an additional property that is not implicit in parts (a), (b) or (c). \nIf more than one of these conditions occur, the question also resolves positively. \n[1] [IAU Definition](https://www.iau.org/news/pressreleases/detail/iau0603/)\n[2] [Geophysical Definition](https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/lpsc2017/eposter/1448.pdf)\n[3] [Metzger et al. 2018](https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.04115)\n[4] [Margot 2015](https://arxiv.org/abs/1507.06300)\n*currently characterized by the IAU as \"dwarf planets\"\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:43:54.425Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 87,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6663/will-miri-employ-researchers-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Machine Intelligence Research Institute](https://intelligence.org/) (MIRI) is a non-profit research institute focused since 2005 on identifying and managing potential existential risks from artificial general intelligence.\nAccording to its website:\nMIRI’s mission is to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive impact. We aim to make advanced intelligent systems behave as we intend even in the absence of immediate human supervision.\nRecently, MIRI has [shared that](https://intelligence.org/2020/12/21/2020-updates-and-strategy/) it has made limited progress on a research direction it has been pursuing:\nAt the same time, 2020 saw limited progress in the research MIRI’s leadership had previously been most excited about: the new research directions we started in 2017. Given our slow progress to date, we are considering a number of possible changes to our strategy, and MIRI’s research leadership is shifting much of their focus toward searching for more promising paths.\nWill MIRI exist in 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if, on 2030-01-01 MIRI exists and employs researchers to work on AI Safety. \nFor the purpose of this question AI Safety is broadly defined as any technical work, at any level of abstraction, focused on the alignment of AI systems, existing or hypothetical, with some broad notion of human interests.\nResearch is here defined as involving developing novel ideas and insights broadly in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields (such as computer science or mathematics) at the time. Currently, blog posts alone wouldn't count for resolution as this does not currently conform to the standard format of academic publications. For the purpose of this question, such research need not be published nor made publicly available. In case it is unclear whether this work is done, a moderator may contact MIRI to confirm. \nIf MIRI changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If MIRI merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution.\nIn case MIRI's research is circulated internally only, the requirement that the work need to be \"developed in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields\" will not apply.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:51:43.223Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 113,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Trump wins the Republican primary in 2023/2024",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A71",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-01-14T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be in line with the pathway to limit warming to 2.0°C by mid-century, over the 2024 to 2027 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3742/will-the-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-be-in-line-with-the-pathway-to-limit-warming-to-20c-by-mid-century-over-the-2024-to-2027-period/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPPC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nThe Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 corresponds to a high greenhouse gas emissions pathway compared to the scenario literature [(IPCC 2008)](https://www.ipcc.ch/publication/ipcc-expert-meeting-report-towards-new-scenarios-for-analysis-of-emissions-climate-change-impacts-and-response-strategies/). The RCP8.5 is a so-called ‘baseline’ scenario that does not include any specific climate mitigation target. It combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. \nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 2.0°C with a likely range of 1.4°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 3.7°C with a likely range of 2.6°C to 4.8°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2022 to 2025 period (inclusive), the RCP8.5 corresponds to an average of 426.63 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y). Over the 2027 to 2030 period, it corresponds to and average of 440.01 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year (ibid.).\nWill the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 433.19 ppm over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 433.19 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n--- \n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n--- \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:56:19.720Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 72,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-29T20:43:28.148000Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/824/will-a-practical-nuclear-fusion-reactor-first-be-developed-in-china/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "With an enormous amount of energy created per unit mass of fuel, cheap and abundance (e.g. deuterium) fuel, and relatively benign waste products, practical energy generation from nuclear fusion would be transformative for the world. A [number of questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:phys-sci--nuclear) relate to efforts in the US and Europe, but there is another major player in the field: China. As discussed in [this story](http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/20289/china-touts-fusion-progress-as-new-details-on-lockheed-martins-reactor-emerge), China is pouring significant resources into practical nuclear fusion. So we ask:\nWhen practical nuclear fusion is developed, will it first be in China? \nFor these purposes we define \"practical\" as an operational high-temperature nuclear fusion reactor that can (a) produce a demonstrated positive energy balance exceeding 100 megawatts for more than one week, and (b) have a sustainable plan for long-term operations (e.g. no critical hard-to-replace components that would be radiation-damaged to inoperability in a matter of days or weeks, etc.) These are chosen to roughly match [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/). \nResolves positively if the first such thing is in China; negatively if the first such thing is built elsewhere; ambiguous if no such thing is built by 2050.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:16:32.842Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 450,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-04-24T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the NBA raise the rim to 10'6\" (or higher) before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6973/nba-raising-the-rim-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Basketball](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basketball) is a team sport played with a 10 foot high rim. The [NBA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Basketball_Association) is the largest professional league in the world. \nWhilst making predictions for 2025 [Jeff Davidson](https://www.accountingweb.com/practice/team/9-predictions-for-what-your-world-just-might-look-like-in-2025) predicts that the height of the rim will be raised \"beyond the year 2025, but not too far beyond!\". We interpret that to mean 2030.\nWill the NBA raise the rim to 10'6\" (or higher) before 2030?\nResolution will be based on the official [NBA rulebook](https://official.nba.com/rule-no-1-court-dimensions-equipment/). If there is no official NBA rulebook available, we will defer to Wikipedia or any other general news source\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:57:59.397Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 56,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-10-20T07:33:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:33:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will the Senate next confirm as Federal Reserve vice chair of Supervision?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7564/Who-will-the-Senate-next-confirm-as-Federal-Reserve-vice-chair-of-Supervision",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual next confirmed by the Senate to the position of Vice Chairman for Supervision of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System following launch of this market on October 27, 2021.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Sarah Bloom Raskin",
- "probability": 0.7745098039215684,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Raphael Bostic",
- "probability": 0.06862745098039215,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Roger Ferguson",
- "probability": 0.019607843137254898,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Richard Cordray",
- "probability": 0.019607843137254898,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nellie Liang",
- "probability": 0.019607843137254898,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lael Brainard",
- "probability": 0.009803921568627449,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kathryn Judge",
- "probability": 0.009803921568627449,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "William Spriggs",
- "probability": 0.009803921568627449,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lisa Cook",
- "probability": 0.009803921568627449,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Randal Quarles",
- "probability": 0.009803921568627449,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Seth Carpenter",
- "probability": 0.009803921568627449,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Michael Hsu",
- "probability": 0.009803921568627449,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Cecilia Rouse",
- "probability": 0.009803921568627449,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Karen Dynan",
- "probability": 0.009803921568627449,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Valerie Wilson",
- "probability": 0.009803921568627449,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:02:47.071Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 551064
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Sarah Bloom Raskin, Raphael Bostic, Roger Ferguson, Richard Cordray, Nellie Liang, Lael Brainard, Kathryn Judge, William Spriggs, Lisa Cook, Randal Quarles, Seth Carpenter, Michael Hsu, Cecilia Rouse, Karen Dynan, Valerie Wilson"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2751/will-the-text-of-the-voynich-manuscript-be-successfully-translated-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Voynich manuscript](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voynich_manuscript) is a hand-written codex which, according to carbon dating, originated in the 15th century. To this day, it is not known for certain whether the manuscript contains meaningful text or gibberish, let alone what language(s) it is written in or what the text might say.\nThere are a few claimed solutions every year. Most recently there has been buzz about [a University of Bristol academic](https://phys.org/news/2019-05-bristol-academic-voynich-code-century-old.html) who claimed to have found a way to transliterate \"Voynichese\" to a form of Vulgar Latin. Like all other decipherment claims to date, this is not widely accepted by the Voynich expert community (as judging by the reactions on the [voynich.ninja](https://voynich.ninja/thread-2763.html) forum and [/r/linguistics](https://old.reddit.com/r/linguistics/comments/bouuhu/bristol_academic_cracks_voynich_code_solving/)).\nThis question resolves positively if an attempt at deciphering and translating the main text of the Voynich manuscript is widely accepted as correct by experts by the end of 2050. \nIt resolves negatively if no Voynich decipherment attempt is widely accepted by the end of 2050, or if the document is widely accepted as a hoax/gibberish by the end of 2050.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:34:45.219Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 130,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-05-18T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-02-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T16:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a recession start by Q2 2022? ",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/RECSS-001",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is strictly less than zero in at least one of Q3 2021, Q4 2021, Q1 2022, and Q2 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see RECSS in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The most recent estimates of seasonally adjusted annualized percent changes in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4,
- "yes_bid": 13,
- "yes_ask": 15,
- "spread": 2,
- "shares_volume": 224650
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "the US dollar will still be an internationally traded currency on 18 Mar 2032",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A137",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "Actually much more than 99%",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.010000000000000009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-03-18T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2030, will at least 1% of Gallup respondents report the most important problem facing the US is something relating to space?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7882/will-americans-care-about-space-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The policy and politics surrounding space governance may have enormous consequences for humanity’s long-term future. Yet, there is currently relatively little interest in the area. [80,000 Hours](https://80000hours.org/) lists space governance as among the potential highest priorities for improving the long-term future, [saying that](https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/#space-governance):\nDespite the huge stakes, governance of space is an extremely niche area of study and advocacy. As a result, major progress could probably be made by a research community focused on this issue, even just by applying familiar lessons from related fields of law and social science.\nWhether this is true may depend on how politically charged the topic becomes. How interested the public is in the topic may reflect or create political interest, and therefore bears on how influential a small research community could be. The interest of the American public is especially important, as America is home to some of the world’s largest space related organizations, such as NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic. \n[Since 1933](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/02/27/us/politics/most-important-problem-gallup-polling-question.html), the [Gallup polling organization](https://news.gallup.com/home.aspx) has asked Americans the question: “What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?\".\nBy 2030, will at least 1% of Gallup respondents report the most important problem facing the US is something relating to space?\nThis question resolves positively if before Jan 1, 2030, Gallup announces a poll, as part of its “[Most Important Problem](https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/most-important-problem.aspx)” series, showing that 1% of Americans responded with an answer referring to space or space governance.\nAnswers to the Gallup poll which refer to space or space governance include:\n---Any answer which refers to an aerospace organization, program or object, such as “NASA” or “Sputnik”. \n---Any answer which directly refers to something related to space governance. This does not include indirect references, such as “foreign policy” (even if space governance is at the time an important part of foreign policy). This is to be decided by Metaculus moderators. \nIf the Gallup poll is discontinued the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:30:22.158Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-07-31T14:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-02T01:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Secretary of State nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7205/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Secretary-of-State-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for Secretary of State.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Jody Hice",
- "probability": 0.7450980392156863,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brad Raffensperger",
- "probability": 0.22549019607843138,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "David Belle Isle",
- "probability": 0.029411764705882353,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:57:50.229Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 28771
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Jody Hice, Brad Raffensperger, David Belle Isle"
- },
- {
- "title": "Someone other D is 2024 POTUS",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A245",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-10-17T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7814/ai-incident-causes-1bn-damage-by-2032/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Risks from Artificial intelligence](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/) are considered by many to be one of the greatest threats to human civilisation in the coming centuries.\nIn Toby Ord's recent book [The Precipice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Precipice:_Existential_Risk_and_the_Future_of_Humanity) he places the risk of human extinction due to unaligned AI this century at 10%.\nThis question asks if we will see large scale incidents leading to loss of life or damage as a result of AI developments going wrong in the next ten years.\nBy 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?\nThis question resolves positively if there are three credible media reports indicating that there has been an event precipitated by AI malfunction which caused either 100+ deaths or $1bn 2021 USD in economic damage before Jan 1st 2032.\nMultiple incidents stemming from the same source can count for resolution.\nTo count as precipitated by AI malfunction an incident should involve an AI system behaving unexpectedly. An example could be if an AI system autonomously driving cars caused hundreds of deaths which would have been easily avoidable for human drivers, or if an AI system overseeing a hospital system took actions to cause patient deaths as a result of misinterpreting a goal to minimise bed usage.\nIf, for example, the [Boeing MCAS system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maneuvering_Characteristics_Augmentation_System) had been an AI system and there was no possibility for the pilots to override its decision to lower the aeroplane nose, leading to a fatal crash, this would count for resolution. \nAn AI system being used in warfare and causing 100+ deaths in the course of its expected behaviour is an example of something which should not count.\nA system should be considered AI if it is widely considered to be AI (e.g. by the credible media reports resolving the question). If this is not sufficiently clear for resolution, then as a secondary criterion, any system using machine learning techniques which has an agentic role in the disaster in question should count for this question. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:27:34.641Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-25T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Rs win FL 2022 Senate",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A156",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many votes to confirm a SCOTUS nominee by July 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7722/How-many-votes-to-confirm-a-SCOTUS-nominee-by-July-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, after January 27, 2022 but before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of a nominee to join the Supreme Court of the United States (the \"Office\"). The first qualifying confirmation vote shall be used to settle this market. A vote to elevate an Associate Justice to the position of Chief Justice shall not be relevant for purposes of this market.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"48 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"57 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. The official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source, shall be used to resolve this market. However, once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by any Senator to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "48 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.14159292035398233,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "49 ",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123895,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "50",
- "probability": 0.07079646017699116,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "51",
- "probability": 0.07964601769911504,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "52",
- "probability": 0.12389380530973454,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "53",
- "probability": 0.1504424778761062,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "54",
- "probability": 0.07964601769911504,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "55",
- "probability": 0.07964601769911504,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "56",
- "probability": 0.07964601769911504,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "57 or more",
- "probability": 0.18584070796460178,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:08:16.547Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 182389
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "48 or fewer, 49 , 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will The Sandbox or Decentraland have a higher floor price on March 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-sandbox-or-decentraland-have-a-higher-floor-price-on-march-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether The Sandbox or Decentraland will have a higher floor price in ETH on March 1st 2022, 12 PM ET.\n\nThe resolution source for The Sandbox will be prices listed on OpenSea (https://opensea.io/collection/sandbox), specifically the price of the cheapest Sandbox for sale.\nThe resolution source for Decentraland will be prices listed on OpenSea (https://opensea.io/collection/decentraland), specifically the price of the cheapest Decentraland NFT for sale.\n\nOnly listings that have existed for at least an hour are valid for this market. List time for an NFT can be found under “Trading History” by clicking the “Listing” filter and hovering over the date. Note that the exact price at the check times will be used. If no floor price is available at the check times, the source will be checked every following hour. For valid listings that are declining price auctions, the price exactly at the check time will be used, NOT the price at the initial listing time.\n\nBoth sources will be checked on March 1st 2022, 12 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Sandbox” if at the check time, the floor price of Sandbox is higher than Decentraland. The market will resolve to “Decentraland” if at the check time the floor price of Decentraland is above Sandbox. If the floor prices are equal, the market will resolve 50/50.\nIf the links to the sources change, the new links will be used as sources.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Sandbox",
- "probability": "0.1026447626243354218792009149027052",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Decentraland",
- "probability": "0.8973552373756645781207990850972948",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.517Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "99",
- "liquidity": "3600.00",
- "tradevolume": "8528.71",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x75F292A6D7CFB2DFBC8e2474D5fA7d611e56Bb21"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Sandbox, Decentraland"
- },
- {
- "title": "Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8608/end-of-new-start-leading-to-nuclear-exchange/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[New START](https://www.state.gov/new-start/) is a nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and the Russian Federation, which was signed on 8 April 2010. After its extension in 2021 it is expected to last until 5 February 2026. \nWe ask a pair of questions about the odds of a Russia-US nuclear exchange [conditional on New START being renewed/replaced](ADD LINK) or conditional it not being renewed/replaced in hopes of shedding some light on the impact of the treaty. (But of course differences between forecasts on the two questions could also partly reflect the impact of \"third variables\" that influence both whether the treaty is renewed/replaced and whether a Russia-US nuclear exchange occurs.)\nConditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?\nThis question conditions on the following (i.e., it resolves ambiguously if this condition isn't met): New START is not renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, according to credible reports such as the [Arms Control Association]. By the absence of replacement by another nuclear arms control agreement we mean a situation when there are no new agreements after 2026 that both US officials and Russian officials describe as a successor to New START. No attempt will be made to determine whether the renewed or replacement treaty actually does have very similar terms to New START.\nThis question resolves positively if that condition is met and there is a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US between this question opening and 2035, defined here as at least one offensive nuclear detonation by the US on or over Russian territory and/or at least one offensive nuclear detonation made by Russia on or over US territory.\nA state (US or Russia) will be considered responsible for a nuclear detonation if either:\n(a) The state openly admits such responsibility (in a statement made by the President, Prime Minister, Minister/Secretary of Defense, the US Ambassador to Russia (or vice versa), a top military executive or a similarly important official)\n(b) Credible reports by multinational organizations conclude that the state was responsible\n(c) There are credible reports claiming the state was responsible and the state does not deny it.\nIf the state changes its claims (e.g. first admitting responsibility for the attack and then denying it), priority will be given to independent reports.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions), but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion).\nSee also:\n--- \n[Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least 5 February 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8393/new-start-renewed-until-february-2027/)\n--- \n[Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8612/new-start-renewed-or-replaced-after-feb-2026/)\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being on or over US/Russia territory.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:02:39.954Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Leondra Kruger become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/SCOURT-001-3",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If || Person || is the first person confirmed by the U.S. Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States in the period between Issuance and January 20, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No.\n\nPlease note that this means that even if Leondra Kruger is confirmed in the period, if another person is confirmed first, then the market still resolves to No. Likewise, the market resolves to No if no person is confirmed by January 20, 2025.\n\nThe market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the confirmation of any individual to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court, Congress.gov updating for January 20, 2025, or February 03, 2025. The market will close at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the confirmation of any individual to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court, or 11:59 PM ET on January 20, 2025.. The resolution source is: Nominations to the position of Associate Justice or Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States that are confirmed by the Senate between Issuance and January 20, 2025 according to Congress.gov. (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4,
- "yes_bid": 14,
- "yes_ask": 16,
- "spread": 2,
- "shares_volume": 32736
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the CDC identify a variant of high consequence by March 1, 2022? ",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/VOHC-001",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If the CDC identifies a variant of high consequence by March 1st, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to no. Please see VOHC in the rulebook for more details. . The resolution source is: The CDC’s SARS-CoV-2 Variant Classifications. (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4,
- "yes_bid": 1,
- "yes_ask": 3,
- "spread": 2,
- "shares_volume": 241406
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will we discover clear evidence of proton decay by 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/915/will-we-discover-clear-evidence-of-proton-decay-by-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Protons are durable little subatomic particles. Our collective best guess that they should take at least years to decay... if they do so at all. \nWhy do scientists want to figure this out? Symmetry Magazine explains the situation: \nMuch [the theoritical work on Grand Unified Theories of the universe] rests on the existence of proton decay, and yet we’ve never seen a proton die. The reason may simply be that protons rarely decay, a hypothesis borne out by both experiment and theory... Because of quantum physics, the time any given proton decays is random, so a tiny fraction will decay long before that -year lifetime. So, “what you need to do is to get a whole bunch of protons together,” says [University of California's Jonathan Feng]. Increasing the number of protons increases the chance that one of them will decay while you’re watching.\nSeveral experiments around the world have attempted (and will be attempting) to quantify the whys and wherefores of proton decay. \nTwo of the most important include:\n[Super-Kamiokande](http://www-sk.icrr.u-tokyo.ac.jp/sk/sk/pdecay-e.html) in Japan:\nIf we can collect many protons and some of them decay, we can estimate proton lifetime unless waiting for so long time. Super-Kamiokande uses 50,000 tons of pure water and it contains protons. We are measuring proton lifetime with huge number of protons... however, we have not observed any evidence of proton decay yet.\n[Hyper-Kamiokande](http://www.hyper-k.org/en/physics/phys-protondecay.html): \nHyper-Kamiokande is about 10 times larger than SK [Super-Kamiokande] and it can overtake the current reach by SK within two years... Hyper-Kamiokande has sensitivity up to more than one order longer than the current lower lifetime of proton.\nWhat do you think? Will we discover proton decay before 2040? \nQuestion resolves positive if experimental evidence for proton decay is published in a top peer-reviewed journal prior to 2040.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.29,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:16:49.085Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 173,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-02-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the number of living humans who have walked on another world fall to zero?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/615/will-the-number-of-living-humans-who-have-walked-on-another-world-fall-to-zero/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2011, cartoonist Randall Munroe published a graph showing the [number of living humans that have walked on another world](https://xkcd.com/893). It rose in 1969-1972 to a peak of [twelve Apollo astronauts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts), then declined in the nineties with the deaths of James Irwin, Alan Shepard and Pete Conrad.\nIn the current decade, with the deaths of Neil Armstrong (2012), Edgar Mitchell (2016), Eugene Cernan (2017) and John Young (2018), the number has fallen to five living astronauts. Randall Munroe predicted in 2011 that the last man would die between 2023 and 2035 with 90% confidence.\nSeveral countries (as well as the company SpaceX) have announced plans for manned landings on the Moon or on Mars in the 2020s or 2030s, which would increase the number for the first time since 1972.\nWill the number fall to zero before the next increase? \nQuestion resolves:\n--- \nNegative if any human lands on another planet or a moon and walks on the surface while there is still a living Apollo astronaut who walked on the moon.\n--- \nPositive if/when the last Apollo astronaut dies, otherwise.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:14:41.175Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1193,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-01-09T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the closing price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 26 August 2022, according to Bloomberg?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2247-what-will-be-the-closing-price-per-barrel-for-west-texas-intermediate-wti-crude-oil-on-26-august-2022-according-to-bloomberg",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "As the world looks to alternative fuels, oil prices remain key to the energy industry ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/energy-investment-needs-to-increase-so-bills-and-taxes-must-rise)). The outcome will be determined using the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $55.00",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $55.00 and $70.00, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $70.00 but less than $85.00",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $85.00 and $100.00, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $100.00 but less than $115.00",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "$115.00 or more",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:01:00.387Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 188,
- "numforecasters": 112,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $55.00, Between $55.00 and $70.00, inclusive, More than $70.00 but less than $85.00, Between $85.00 and $100.00, inclusive, More than $100.00 but less than $115.00, $115.00 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Is the Zuma satellite still in orbit?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1618/is-the-zuma-satellite-still-in-orbit/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In January 2018, a classified satellite known only as Zuma, built by defense contractor Northrop Grumman for an unknown agency of the United States government, was launched by commercial space launch provider SpaceX. The specific agency in charge of the Zuma project has not been disclosed, nor its purpose. The National Reconnaissance Office, the agency responsible for operating the spy satellites of the United States, which typically announces the launch of its assets, specifically denied that Zuma was one of their satellites ([http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-…](http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-zuma-payload-not-its-bird)).\nThe satellite had a development cost of approximately $3.5 billion according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, and as such is one of the most-expensive single objects ever launched into space.\nIt is also, perhaps, one of the costliest objects ever lost in connection to a space mission. \nThe official story (provided by anonymous government officials) is that Zuma was lost before achieving orbit when it failed to separate from its payload adapter, provided by Northrop Grumman, and was destroyed when it re-entered Earth's atmosphere. Launch provider SpaceX has been absolved of responsibility for the claimed loss of the satellite. However, due to the uncommon extent of the secrecy surrounding the mission and the high value of the payload, conspiracy theories have swirled from the day of the launch. \nMany people believe that the satellite is actually in orbit conducting a secret mission for persons unknown. Amateur astronomers have been scanning the skies in an attempt to locate the satellite (a feat previously accomplished with spy satellites, the orbits of which are not typically disclosed by the agencies responsible for them), but so far have not succeeded in locating Zuma. The US government has so far refused to publicly state if there was a failure of Zuma, and this secrecy has only served to increase the level of speculation on its purpose and its fate.\nMore information on the satellite can be found here: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zuma_(satellite)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zuma_%28satellite%29)\nWas Zuma really destroyed before achieving orbit - or is it still up there? \nThis question shall resolve positively if credible media reports state that the Zuma satellite has been located in orbit around Earth, or if any agency of the United States government publicly confirms that the satellite is still in orbit. The satellite need not be operational, or have ever been operational, in order for the question to resolve positively.\nThe question will resolve negatively if conclusive evidence of the satellite's destruction is presented.\nThe question will resolve ambiguously if neither a positive nor negative resolution is possible by January 1, 2030.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:27:31.706Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 162,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-09T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Brian Riedl win a bet that average interest paid on US federal debt exceeds 4.6% by 2051?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8572/riedl-bets-cole-about-higher-interest-rates/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Brian Riedl](https://www.manhattan-institute.org/expert/brian-riedl) is a senior fellow at the [Manhattan Institute](https://www.manhattan-institute.org/about), a think tank which describes its mission as follows\n...to develop and disseminate new ideas that foster greater economic choice and individual responsibility.\nAlan Cole blogs about the economy at [Full Stack Economics](https://fullstackeconomics.com/about/) and is a former senior economist with the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress where he advised Senator Mike Lee (R-UT).\nOn November 9, 2021, Brian Riedl [proposed the following bet](https://twitter.com/Brian_Riedl/status/1458195379560853514)\nI'm willing to bet you that the average interest rate paid on the federal debt exceeds 4.6% at some point within 30 years (CBO assumes it gradually rises to 4.6% by 2051).\nAlan Cole accepted. [They agreed](https://twitter.com/Brian_Riedl/status/1458197815130300425) to resolve the bet based on the average interest rate as currently calculated by CBO in its economical historical data.\nIn [The 2021 Long-Term Budget Outlook](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57038) published by the CBO in March of 2021, the CBO projects\n...the average interest rate on federal debt initially decreases from 1.4 percent in 2021 to 1.2 percent in 2024 and then increases to 4.6 percent by 2051.\nWill Brian Riedl win his bet with Alan Cole regarding the interest rate paid on the federal debt?\nThis resolves positively if Brian Riedl wins the bet and negatively if Alan Cole wins. In the event the bet is not resolved in a timely manner upon apparent satisfaction of the bet terms or a situation appears ambiguous under the terms of the bet, the resolution criteria in the fine print will be used for resolution.\nUnder the relevant conditions described in the resolution criteria above, this resolves positively if the actual average interest rate on federal debt as reported by the CBO exceeds 4.6% prior to January 1st, 2051. If the method of calculation of the average interest rate on federal debt is substantially revised prior to resolution this resolves ambiguously. The resolution date for this question is December 31, 2052, any CBO publication prior to that date showing the actual average interest rate on federal debt exceeded 4.6% prior to January 1st, 2051 will resolve this question positively. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:00:40.597Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T15:38:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2052-12-31T15:38:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9524/israeli-first-10-on-embryo-selection-for-iq/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) \nOne of the most important [papers](https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674%2819%2931210-3.pdf) on embryo selection was coauthored by Israeli, Greek, and American researchers including Hebrew University's Shai Carmi, and found an expected gain of 2.5 IQ points using 2018 polygenic scores. It was [reported](https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-research-Can-genetic-testing-and-selection-make-your-baby-smart-608550) [on](https://www.timesofisrael.com/scientists-say-smart-and-tall-designer-babies-out-of-reach-for-now/) in the Israeli media. In an [article on genetic engineering](https://www.docdroid.net/kkx0XperMZ/haaretz-brave-new-baby-pdf#page=2) in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Carmi is quoted as saying that the gains may be up to seven IQ points in the foreseeable future.\nIsrael has [generous](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240566182030023X) [state-subsidized](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [pre-implantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) through in-vitro fertilization (IVF) for a large basket of genetic diseases. Israel's public health insurance covers PGD for up to two children per family. The practice spans the Israeli religious spectrum, from secular to ultra-Orthodox. Israelis are also [avid aborters](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium.MAGAZINE-the-abortion-conundrum-how-far-israelis-go-to-ensure-their-babies-are-born-perfect-1.7362524) of fetuses with Down Syndome.\nIsrael had the [fastest COVID vaccine rollout in the world](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/israels-covid-vaccine-rollout-is-the-fastest-in-the-world.html), [leads in 21st century Nobel Prizes per capita](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/05/29/four-nobel-truths/), has a [very developed science and technology sector](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_Israel) and [a developed biotech industry and stem cell industry in particular](https://www.haaretz.com/.premium-stem-cell-research-a-boom-industry-in-israel-1.5238166), and is a [leader in IVF](https://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/18/world/middleeast/18israel.html#:~:text=Unlike%20countries%20where%20couples%20can,the%20procedure%20in%20the%20world.) and [fertility technology.](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) Israel is a leader in many 21st century technologies, such as [cyber](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/half-of-global-cybersecurity-investment-has-been-in-israel-pm-bennett-says-1.10546684)[security](https://www.jns.org/israel-ranks-among-strongest-global-cyber-powers/) and [desalination](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/israel-proves-the-desalination-era-is-here/). It is expected to be early on [approving cultivated meat](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8846/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-israel/) as well as [self-driving](https://unitedwithisrael.org/self-driving-robotaxis-to-hit-tel-aviv-in-2022/) [cars](https://www.jpost.com/jpost-tech/mobileye-unveils-new-self-driving-taxi-will-launch-in-tel-aviv-in-2022-678860).\nJudaism is generally bioethically permissive. Jewish authorities [universally agree](https://www.nature.com/articles/nm0309-238b) that a preimplantation embryo does not have the same sacred title to life as an implanted embryo. Unlike Christianity, Judaism [supports](https://www.rollcall.com/2005/06/10/evangelicals-orthodox-jews-split-on-stem-cells/) stem cell research. Orthodox Israeli physician [Shimon Glick](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shimon_Glick) [wrote](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-experts-pan-chinese-gene-editing-as-drastic-human-experimentation/) that it is [ethical](https://philpapers.org/rec/GLISJT) [to raise IQ using genetic engineering](https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.884.114&rep=rep1&type=pdf), and that Jewish law does not prohibit it and in fact supports it because it raises quality of life. Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox Jewish Israelis are [avid](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [consumers](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) of Israel's pre-implantation genetic diagnosis and of the genetic testing that [Dor Yeshorim](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dor_Yeshorim) does, and Israel has an [embryo selection company](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) started by an ultra-Orthodox mother of four. [Tay-Sachs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tay%E2%80%93Sachs_disease), a genetic disease common among [Ashkenazi Jews](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashkenazi_Jews), who make up about half of Israel's population and about 40% of the total population, has been [virtually eliminated](https://www.haaretz.com/1.4706480) in Israel, where only one baby with Tay-Sachs was born in 2003.\nWill Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively if Israel is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\nMoreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:44:09.583Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the first commercial hyperloop system be within the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/513/will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-be-within-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Elon Musk's dream of a hyperloop – a pod-based transportation system that uses magnetic levitation in a near-vacuum – is coming closer to reality. Tests in the Nevada desert have achieved speeds up to 192 mph, and Musk announced in July 2017 that he had [\"verbal approval\"](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/07/20/elon-musk-hyperloop/495735001/) for a hyperloop between New York and Washington, DC. (Though it is rather unclear what exactly this means.)\nBut other countries are interested too. Dubai and Russia are both developing plans. For Russia, a hyperloop could open up new areas of the country to [trade with China](https://hyperloop-one.com/blog/hyperloop-one-can-open-russias-far-east-china-trade). If, that is, [lawsuits](https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-13/russia-s-hyperloop-dream-stalls) don't derail the project. In Dubai, designs for a Dubai-Abu Dhabi hyperloop network [already exist](http://www.businessinsider.com/hyperloop-one-how-it-works-2017-7/#the-start-up-announced-in-early-novemberthat-it-signed-an-agreement-withdubai-roads-and-transport-authority-to-evaluate-using-the-hyperloop-between-dubai-and-abu-dhabi-1). \nAlthough implementing the hyperloop concept is far from easy, [several](http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2017/07/in-defense-of-elon-musks-audacious-insane-brilliant-crazy-plan-for-an-east-coast-hyperloop/) [writers](http://grist.org/article/in-defense-of-the-east-coast-hyperloop-elon-musk/) have said that testing and construction should begin anyway, as the hyperloop may be the revolutionary transportation system the world desperately needs.\nWill the first commercial hyperloop system be built inside of the United States?\nThis question will resolve as positive if the first hyperloop system to commence commercial operations is located the US rather than in Dubai, Russia, or any other country outside the US. Resolves as ambiguous if no commercial hyperloop system is operating as of 2035.\n\"Commerical Operations\" means that people will utilize the system as transport (even if somewhat as a novelty) outside of a test setting and without signing any waivers etc.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.64,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:12:11.743Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 307,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-08-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7340/new-megadonor-in-ea-in-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Good Ventures](https://www.goodventures.org/) is a philanthropic foundation managing the giving of Dustin Moskovitz and Cari Tuna which is a major donor to effective altruist aligned causes. They donated $219 million to such causes [in 2020](https://www.goodventures.org/our-portfolio/grants-database) and $274 million in 2019, for an average of $246 million per year in these two years. This question asks if, in 2026, there will be another such foundation or individual donor in the effective altruism space.\nWill there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?\nThis question resolves positively if, in 2026, an individual donor or foundation other than Good Ventures, sourcing its wealth from a single individual or family donates over 250 million dollars (adjusted for inflation), using an Effective Altruist framework to guide their donations (see fine print for details).\nGrants should only count if they are publicly disclosed, as is currently done by Good Ventures or [Survival and Flourishing](https://survivalandflourishing.fund/), for example. \nA donor will be considered to have donated the money if the money has been regranted to organisations outside their foundation to explicitly pursue direct work on improving the world (so, for example, donating to a Donor Advised Fund with the intention of investing the money for future charitable use would not count, but donating to an organisation doing cause prioritisation research would count). \nAn organisation should be considered EA aligned if out of 3 Metaculus moderators, 3/3 would consider the donor or the majority of the leadership of the organisation to be members of the EA community, or that the donations were motivated by Effective Altruist considerations. If moderators are divided or individually uncertain, I will make a best-effort attempt to poll 5 well-known members of the EA community who can credibly attest to being part of EA as of June 4 2021.\nBy way of a guide, this is intended to exclude, for example, the [Gates Foundation](https://www.gatesfoundation.org/), but include [Open Philanthropy](https://www.thelifeyoucansave.org/), [Longview Philanthropy](https://www.longview.org/) and [The Life You Can Save](https://www.thelifeyoucansave.org/) as of 2021.\n[EDIT] Sylvain 2021-09-28: clarified that Good Ventures doesn't count.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:10:48.602Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 100,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a recession cause \"suicides by the thousands\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3912/will-a-recession-cause-suicides-by-the-thousands/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In a Fox News town hall on 2020-03-24, President Donald Trump predicted that a recession in the US would cause [\"suicides by the thousands.\"](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-says-u-s-will-have-suicides-by-the-thousands-if-economic-slowdown-lasts-too-long) Let's see if he's right!\n[CDC's Wonder database](https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/saved/D76/D79F299) gives us their annual count of deaths-by-suicide. From this, we can perform a [simple linear regression](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G-ekOYSznqpXvMWxxVWHS7jj0lD-zivfwKHBJBF7qCQ/edit?usp=sharing) to see that the number of suicides is increasing by roughly 1012 annually. The last year for which data are available (2018) had 48,312 suicides. Accordingly, we might predict that there were roughly 49,324 in 2019 and there would be around 50,336 in a business-as-usual 2020 scenario. Thus, to judge the President's prediction, let's see if there are at least 1000 suicides more than that.\nIf the US experiences a recession in 2020, will the number of suicides in the US in 2020 exceed 51,336?\nFor purposes of this question:\n---A recession will be defined as two consecutive quarters of Negative GDP growth for the United States. \n---If the US does not experience a recession, this question resolves ambiguously. \n---The number of suicides will be the number reported by the [CDC's Wonder database](https://wonder.cdc.gov/), or by a press release or other official publication by the [National Center for Health Statistics](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/default.htm) reporting all deaths classified as any of [ICD10 codes X60-X84 (Intentional self-harm)](https://apps.who.int/classifications/apps/icd/icd10online2003/fr-icd.htm?gx60.htm+). If the NCHS goes defunct without a clear successor before publishing this data, the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:59:10.270Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 570,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T16:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.\nThis latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.\nQuestion: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.\nThe relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.\nThis question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:55:31.560Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 477,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-25T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-07-17T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8612/new-start-renewed-or-replaced-after-feb-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[New START](https://www.state.gov/new-start/) is a nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and the Russian Federation, which was signed on 8 April 2010. After its extension in 2021 it is expected to last until 5 February 2026. \nWe ask a pair of questions about the odds of a Russia-US nuclear exchange conditional on New START being renewed/replaced or [conditional it not being renewed/replaced](ADD LINK) in hopes of shedding some light on the impact of the treaty. (But of course differences between forecasts on the two questions could also partly reflect the impact of \"third variables\" that influence both whether the treaty is renewed/replaced and whether a Russia-US nuclear exchange occurs.)\nConditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?\nThis question conditions on the following (i.e., it resolves ambiguously if this condition isn't met): New START is renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, according to credible reports such as the [Arms Control Association]. By replacement by another nuclear arms control agreement we mean a situation when there is an agreement after 2026 that both US and Russian officials describe as a successor to New START. No attempt will be made to determine whether the renewed or replacement treaty actually has very similar terms to New START. \nThis question resolves positively if that condition is met and there is a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US between this question opening and 2035, defined here as at least one offensive nuclear detonation by the US on or over Russian territory and/or at least one offensive nuclear detonation made by Russia on or over US territory.\nA state (US or Russia) will be considered responsible for a nuclear detonation if either:\n(a) The state openly admits such responsibility (in a statement made by the President, Prime Minister, Minister/Secretary of Defense, the US Ambassador to Russia (or vice versa), a top military executive or a similarly important official)\n(b) Credible reports by multinational organizations conclude that the state was responsible\n(c) There are credible reports claiming the state was responsible and the state does not deny it.\nIf the state changes its claims (e.g. first admitting responsibility for the attack and then denying it), priority will be given to independent reports.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions), but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion).\nSee also:\n--- \n[Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least 5 February 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8393/new-start-renewed-until-february-2027/)\n--- \n[Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8608/end-of-new-start-leading-to-nuclear-exchange/)\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being on or over US/Russia territory.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:03:00.558Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Minnesota gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7576/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Minnesota-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Minnesota gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that the candidate is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed representation, of the party in question.\nFor purposes of this market, the Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party shall be considered synonymous with the Democratic Party. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.6990291262135921,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.30097087378640774,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:03:01.641Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 38706
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8499/libor-end-date-extension/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Libor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor), the floating rate used in all sorts of financial contracts from student loans to derivates, served its purpose for quite a while, but it brought down by abuse and manipulation by the British banks that set it. This became evident a decade ago when several people [went to jail for manipulating Libor](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/understanding-libor-scandal), sometimes [so blatantly that it was hilarious](https://www.businessinsider.com/read-the-bloomberg-chats-that-got-a-former-rbs-libor-trader-paul-white-banned-for-life-2016-4?op=1). In recent years, financial authorities across the globe have been looking at ways to move away from Libor, and multiple solutions have been proposed.\nIn the US and other countries of the Americas, the overnight guaranteed funding rate (SOFR), is slowly replacing Libor. It’s not perfect, but it’s a good alternative. However, it’s significantly lower than Libor, as it is a rate for essentially risk-free loans secured by Treasury bonds, while Libor incorporates the credit risk of banks. Libor is now around three basis points (0.03%) above but historically it has been rather around 10 basis points (0.1%).\nContracts in SOFR are already incorporating extra costs to account for this difference, but there’s uncertainty in the market. ICE Benchmark Administration, the Libor rate provider, intended to phase out many Libor rates at the start of 2022, but [announced a delay in September](https://www.theice.com/iba/libor), for a \"synthetic\" extension on some GBP and JPY rates until 2023-01-01, while no US dollar Libor rate will be provided from 2023-07-01.\nWill there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023?\nThis resolves positive if, by 2023-06-30, [ICE Benchmark Association](https://www.theice.com/iba/libor) announces any further delay in the phasing out of Libor rates. This will still be the case even if the delay involves a so-called “synthetic” methodology so that the rate is no longer representative of the underlying market.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.41,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:56:09.406Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-21T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-09-04T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-07-01T10:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which political party will win the most seats in the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2206-which-political-party-will-win-the-most-seats-in-the-next-northern-ireland-assembly-election",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The next Northern Ireland Assembly election is scheduled for 5 May 2022 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/celebrations-in-2022-cannot-hide-an-uncertain-future-for-britain), [Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/11/uk-eu-northern-ireland/620716/), [Belfast Telegraph](https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/dup-battling-back-but-sinn-feins-michelle-oneill-still-on-course-for-first-minister-41047391.html), [Northern Ireland Act 1998](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/47/part/IV/crossheading/elections-etc)). If the election date is changed, the question's suspend date will be moved to the day before the new election date. If there is a tie for most seats, the question will be resolved in favor of the party with the most first preference votes (e.g., [NI Assembly](http://www.niassembly.gov.uk/globalassets/documents/raise/publications/2017-2022/2017/general/2217.pdf), see Table 5.1).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic Unionist Party",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sinn Féin",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Another party",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:02:27.964Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 161,
- "numforecasters": 121,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic Unionist Party, Sinn Féin, Another party"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be armed conflict between the national military forces, militia and/or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before Jan 1, 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7227/armed-conflict-between-prc--roc-taiwan/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There is growing discussion in the United States about the rising risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait. On March 9th, 2021, U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Philip Davidson [expressed concern](https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/21-03-09-united-states-indo-pacific-command) about the potential for conflict in the next six years. Then on May 1st, 2021, The Economist featured [a cover story](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/05/01/the-most-dangerous-place-on-earth) calling Taiwan “the most dangerous place on Earth.” \nRecently, there has been increased [military activity](https://globaltaiwan.org/2021/04/vol-6-issue-8/#JohnDotson04212021) in the Taiwan Straits. Spokespersons for the People's Republic of China and state media outlets have characterized recent PLA exercise activity as a response to provocative moves by the United States and “Taiwan secessionists.”\nAgainst the backdrop of [a Taiwan Strait transit](https://twitter.com/USPacificFleet/status/1379831671520776194) conducted on April 7 by the US Navy destroyer USS John McCain, plus [operations in the South China Sea](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mv15x3QHSh8) involving the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier and the USS Makin Island amphibious-ready group, Beijing appears to be [publicizing](https://news.cgtn.com/news/796b544f336b7a6333566d54/share_p.html) its military operations as a component of a broader pressure campaign directed against Taiwan. \nThese developments raise the prospect of a military confrontation between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China in the next few years. Possible triggers could include real or perceived Taiwanese assertions of national sovereignty, or the real or perceived warming of US-Taiwan relations.\nWill there be armed conflict between the national military forces, militia and/or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before Jan 1, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occurs between the time this question is posted and December 31, 2023:\n---There are at least three credible government sources reporting an exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China. \n---There are at least three credible news reports that an exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in (a) an exchange of weapon fire or detonations and/or (b) one or more battle-related deaths or injuries. Notice that, as defined, an armed conflict need not result in death or injury, unless it involves hand-to-hand combat.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:06:46.539Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 257,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-02-04T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kanye West release 'Donda 2' (or another new album) by 2/22/22?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-kanye-west-release-donda-2-or-another-new-album-by-22222",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "'Donda 2' is the rumored title for Kanye West’s upcoming eleventh studio album, expected to be released on February 22, 2022. This will serve as the official sequel to Kanye’s tenth studio album of the same name, released back in August 2021.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if 'Donda 2' or another new album by Kanye West is released and is available via Spotify or Apple Music for streaming after January 28 and before February 22 2022 (11:59:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve “No.” \n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes\", the album must be listed under the albums section of Kanye West's profile, and streamable, on either Apple Music (currently at https://music.apple.com/us/artist/kanye-west/2715720/see-all?section=full-albums) or Spotify (https://open.spotify.com/artist/5K4W6rqBFWDnAN6FQUkS6x/discography/album) streaming platforms.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.2969309658600300931367216402006799",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.7030690341399699068632783597993201",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.517Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "156",
- "liquidity": "10155.86",
- "tradevolume": "11592.49",
- "stars": 4
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x362658323A9D0746191D6A8d727540D06E922094"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Turkey recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7859/turkey-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition). The Taliban [have expressed](https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1427016723039985668) that they view Turkey not as an enemy, but as an ally.\nWill Turkey recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 01-01-2030, reliable media sources report that the Turkish government has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:29:19.261Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8944/boris-johnson-uk-pm-on-june-1-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Johnson), born 19 June 1964, is a British politician and writer serving as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party since July 2019.\nAs of December 2021, Boris Johnson is mired in scandal due to [reportedly attending a number of parties and mass gatherings during the UK's coronavirus lockdowns](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/16/boris-johnson-joined-no-10-party-during-may-2020-lockdown-say-sources). His Conservative Party has lost its once-robust polling lead, and [now trails the opposition Labour Party in the opinion polls.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary)\nOn December 16th 2021, the Conservatives lost the Parliamentary constituency of North Shropshire, [which the party had held for nearly 200 years.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-59693102)\nConservative MPs have [reportedly submitted letters to the 1922 Committee](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/11/23/letters-no-confidence-boris-johnson-have-submitted-claim-tory/) indicating that Boris Johnson has lost their confidence in his ability to continue to serve as leader of the Conservative Party.\nWill Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if at 00:00 BST on 1 June 2022, Boris Johnson holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. It resolves negatively if this is not the case.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:20:23.080Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 885,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": " GOP impeaches Biden by EOY 2025 if they take the house by EOY 2025",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A209",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-09-01T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the Democratic nomination in the TX-35 House election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7676/Who-will-win-the-Democratic-nomination-in-the-TX-35-House-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2022 election to the United States House of Representatives from Texas' Thirty-Fifth Congressional District.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Greg Casar",
- "probability": 0.8018867924528301,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Eddie Rodriguez",
- "probability": 0.09433962264150944,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rebecca Viagran",
- "probability": 0.09433962264150944,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Carla-Joy Sisco",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:06:11.325Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 10010
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Greg Casar, Eddie Rodriguez, Rebecca Viagran, Carla-Joy Sisco"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Zapper airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-zapper-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Zapper will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.2016658761638289804382227892516803",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.7983341238361710195617772107483197",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.517Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "77",
- "liquidity": "500.00",
- "tradevolume": "3770.00",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x74f7A9733B42742Cd1277577992626125751977A"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Ds win 51 or more Senate seats in 2022 Senate election",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A164",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the percentage change in the producer price index for writing and printing papers for May 2022 as compared to May 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2052-what-will-be-the-percentage-change-in-the-producer-price-index-for-writing-and-printing-papers-for-may-2022-as-compared-to-may-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The question will be suspended on 31 May 2022 and the outcome determined using data as first provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for \"Writing and printing papers\" (Commodity code 0913-01) in May 2022, expected in June 2022 ([BLS - PPI](https://www.bls.gov/ppi/detailed-report/archived-producer-price-index-detailed-report-information.htm)). For May 2021, the percentage change from May 2020 was 3.2% ([BLS - PPI Detailed Report May 2021](https://www.bls.gov/ppi/detailed-report/ppi-detailed-report-may-2021.pdf), see page 49). For historical data, visit https://www.bls.gov/ppi/. Under \"PPI Databases,\" select \"ONE SCREEN\" from \"Commodity Data including 'Headline' FD-ID indexes.\" For \"1 Select a Group,\" select \"09 Pulp, paper, and allied products.\" For \"2 Select one or more Items,\" find and select \"091301 Writing and printing papers.\" For \"3 Select Seasonal Adjustment,\" leave only \"Not Seasonally Adjusted\" checked, then click \"Get Data.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 1.0%",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1.0% and 2.5%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 2.5% but less than 4.0%",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 4.0% and 5.5%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 5.5%",
- "probability": 0.68,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:05:20.177Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 208,
- "numforecasters": 43,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.0%, Between 1.0% and 2.5%, inclusive, More than 2.5% but less than 4.0%, Between 4.0% and 5.5%, inclusive, More than 5.5%"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US President’s ability to deploy military force be further restricted by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8669/restrictions-on-us-pres-war-powers-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since World War II, Congress has opted to pass a series of resolutions to authorize the president to use force rather than declare war. These resolutions are an extension of the War Powers Resolution (WPR), a federal law passed in 1973 that was meant to limit presidential war powers. The WPR originally [stipulated the following](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Powers_Resolution):\nThe War Powers Resolution requires the president to notify Congress within 48 hours of committing armed forces to military action and forbids armed forces from remaining for more than 60 days, with a further 30-day withdrawal period, without congressional authorization for use of military force (AUMF) or a declaration of war by the United States.\nSince its passing, the WPR has largely failed to reign in the executive branch's ability to unilaterally take military action. A particular flaw in the resolution is its use of the word \"hostilities\" to describe conflict. The [introductory text to the resolution](https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/warpower.asp) is as follows:\nIt is the purpose of this joint resolution to fulfill the intent of the framers of the Constitution of the United States and insure that the collective judgment of both the Congress and the President will apply to the introduction of United States Armed Forces into hostilities, or into situations where imminent involvement in hostilities is clearly indicated by the circumstances, and to the continued use of such forces in hostilities or in such situations.\nUnfortunately, \"hostilities\" fails to precisely describe warfare. This terminology has been exploited by various presidencies, culminating in [testimony by the Obama administration](https://2009-2017.state.gov/documents/organization/167452.pdf) explicitly stating its futility to constrain the executive branch's authority. Consequently, this loophole handicaps the WPR's ability to function as originally intended. Policymakers have [considered replacing the current term](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3436924) with \"armed conflict\", which would align with the Geneva Convention's terminology and the international legal obligations requiring congressional oversight that would come with such a conflict.\nWill the US President’s ability to deploy military force be further restricted by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if by 2030-01-01 the current War Powers Resolution is replaced, amended or struck down, via legal challenge, legislation, or executive authority, to further restrict the President’s ability to deploy military force.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:06:37.693Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-22T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-10-28T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In its 2022 report, will the Board of Trustees for Medicare project the year of asset depletion of the Hospital Insurance trust fund (\"HI,\" aka Medicare Part A) to be 2025 or before?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2148-in-its-2022-report-will-the-board-of-trustees-for-medicare-project-the-year-of-asset-depletion-of-the-hospital-insurance-trust-fund-hi-aka-medicare-part-a-to-be-2025-or-before",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The Boards of Trustees for Medicare (also Boards) report annually to the Congress on the financial operations and actuarial status of the program ([Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services](https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/ReportsTrustFunds)). The board of trustees is expected to issue its 2022 report in the spring or summer of 2022. In its 2021 report, the board projected the year of asset depletion of the Hospital Insurance trust fund to be 2025 ([Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services - 2021 Trustee Report](https://www.cms.gov/files/document/2021-medicare-trustees-report.pdf), see page 6 in the report).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:04:09.322Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "numforecasters": 24,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2023, will the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office officially change its name to include the word Taiwan?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2141-before-1-january-2023-will-the-taipei-economic-and-cultural-representative-office-officially-change-its-name-to-include-the-word-taiwan",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Recent media reporting indicates discussions regarding the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the US potentially changing its name to \"Taiwan Representative Office\" ([Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States](https://www.roc-taiwan.org/us_en/index.html), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/07810ece-b35b-47e7-a6d2-c876b7b40444), [CGTN](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-09-13/China-opposes-U-S-pondering-of-Taiwan-office-name-change--13wwMHtiKXu/index.html), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/blog/why-letting-taiwan-change-name-its-office-united-states-mistake)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:04:21.487Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "numforecasters": 44,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) will be registered in the UK in 2022, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2222-how-many-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-will-be-registered-in-the-uk-in-2022-according-to-the-society-of-motor-manufacturers-and-traders-smmt",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The outcome will be determined using the \"Year to date\" data table for all of 2022 from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders report released in January 2023, typically on the fourth working day of the month ([SMMT - Car Registrations](https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/), [SMMT](https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/mvris-new-vehicle-registrations-uk/)). For example, as of November 2021, 163,022 Battery Electric Vehicles were registered in the UK in 2021 ([SMMT - News 6 December 2021](https://www.smmt.co.uk/2021/12/battery-ev-uptake-doubles-but-new-car-market-remains-well-adrift-of-pre-pandemic-levels/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 150,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 150,000 and 200,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 200,000 but fewer than 250,000",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 250,000 and 300,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.34,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 300,000 but fewer than 350,000",
- "probability": 0.41,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "350,000 or more",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:01:59.618Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 139,
- "numforecasters": 58,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 200,000, inclusive, More than 200,000 but fewer than 250,000, Between 250,000 and 300,000, inclusive, More than 300,000 but fewer than 350,000, 350,000 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Serial: Who killed Hae Min Lee?",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/serial-who-killed-hae-min-lee-11513",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "[Hae Min Lee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Hae_Min_Lee) was a high school senior in Baltimore, Maryland, who disappeared on January 13, 1999. When her body was found a month later on February 9, an investigation ensued that relied heavily on information provided by Jay Wilds, a marijuana dealer who had graduated from Hae's high school. The police claimed to have focused on Hae's ex-boyfriend, Adnan Syed, following a tip from an anonymous caller and information provided by Jenn (a friend of Jay but not of Adnan). After Adnan’s conviction, the case was featured in the podcasts [Serial](http://serialpodcast.org/) and [Undisclosed](http://undisclosed-podcast.com/), and some of the new evidence and arguments led the court to [overturn Adnan's conviction and grant him a new trial](https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2016/jul/01/serial-adnan-syed-new-trial-hae-min-lee-murder). Followers of the case have made[ maps containing significant locations](https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=zERAsrjje-sU.kQFffQE6h2vk), [multiple](http://i.imgur.com/E11E8WM.jpg) possible [timelines](http://s1.ibtimes.com/sites/www.ibtimes.com/files/styles/pulse_embed/public/2014/11/05/serial_tl_1-6_770.png) have been suggested, and debates have ensued on forums such as [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/serialpodcast/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Hae Min Lee was killed by someone else (other than Adnan Syed, Jay Wilds, Don, or Roy Sharonnie Davis III).",
- "probability": 0.5377257381473797,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Roy Sharonnie Davis III (a convicted murderer who was in the area) killed Hae Min Lee.",
- "probability": 0.3135449100891127,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee, and buried her with Jay's help (this timeline differs from the version of events presented to the jury that convicted Adnan: killed after 2:30 PM and buried after 11 PM that night).",
- "probability": 0.08451102649131251,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Don (Hae's boyfriend at the time of the murder) killed Hae Min Lee.",
- "probability": 0.04682696694032147,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee, and buried her without Jay's help (this timeline differs from the version of events presented to the jury that convicted Adnan: killed after 2:30 PM and buried after 11 PM that night).",
- "probability": 0.01393535852010411,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee, and buried her with Jay's help (this timeline was presented to the jury that convicted Adnan: he called for pickup at 2:35 PM after murdering Hae, and buried her around 7 PM).",
- "probability": 0.0018381056042367754,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jay Wilds killed Hae Min Lee.",
- "probability": 0.0008436308886018265,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Shamim Syed (Adnan's mother) killed Hae Min Lee.",
- "probability": 0.0007742633189311423,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:09:13.886Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Hae Min Lee was killed by someone else (other than Adnan Syed, Jay Wilds, Don, or Roy Sharonnie Davis III)., Roy Sharonnie Davis III (a convicted murderer who was in the area) killed Hae Min Lee., Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee, and buried her with Jay's help (this timeline differs from the version of events presented to the jury that convicted Adnan: killed after 2:30 PM and buried after 11 PM that night)., Don (Hae's boyfriend at the time of the murder) killed Hae Min Lee., Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee, and buried her without Jay's help (this timeline differs from the version of events presented to the jury that convicted Adnan: killed after 2:30 PM and buried after 11 PM that night)., Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee, and buried her with Jay's help (this timeline was presented to the jury that convicted Adnan: he called for pickup at 2:35 PM after murdering Hae, and buried her around 7 PM)., Jay Wilds killed Hae Min Lee., Shamim Syed (Adnan's mother) killed Hae Min Lee."
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6910/will-the-us-senate-change-the-filibuster/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The United State Senate features a parliamentary procedure known as the [filibuster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filibuster_in_the_United_States_Senate), which requires a three-fifths threshold to invoke cloture and vote.\nThe rules have been changed several times, including the adoption of a two-track system in the 1960's and altering the rule to exclude judicial and executive branch nominees from the three-fifths threshold in 2013 and 2017.\nWill the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States Senate adopts a rule during the 117th Congress to either abolish or alter the filibuster.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:56:29.049Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 337,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4118/will-there-be-a-positive-transition-to-a-world-with-radically-smarter-than-human-artificial-intelligence/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A world with radically smarter-than-human intelligence would probably be very different than the one we live in today. [Bostrom (2003)](https://nickbostrom.com/ethics/ai.html) speculated on the likely outcome following the creation of artificial superintelligence,\nIt is hard to think of any problem that a superintelligence could not either solve or at least help us solve. Disease, poverty, environmental destruction, unnecessary suffering of all kinds: these are things that a superintelligence equipped with advanced nanotechnology would be capable of eliminating. Additionally, a superintelligence could give us indefinite lifespan, either by stopping and reversing the aging process through the use of nanomedicine, or by offering us the option to upload ourselves. A superintelligence could also create opportunities for us to vastly increase our own intellectual and emotional capabilities, and it could assist us in creating a highly appealing experiential world in which we could live lives devoted to in joyful game-playing, relating to each other, experiencing, personal growth, and to living closer to our ideals.\nA world is said to have \"radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence\" if there exists at least one artificial system that can outperform all contemporaneous humans at any non-trivial intellectual or physical task, such as proving mathematical theorems, engineering, scientific research, and manual labor. A positive transition to such a world is said to be a transition where the dominant influence over the future course of history takes place under the direction of widely held moral ideals.\nAs a negative example, if a dictator created a superintelligence and used it to amass wealth for himself at the expense of the rest of humanity, this does not count. Likewise, if humans succeed at creating some superintelligences but mistakenly fail to create one that shares human values, then [this also doesn't count](https://intelligence.org/stanford-talk/) as a positive transition.\nWhile it is exceptionally difficult to come up with an operationalization for this question that could yield no false negatives or positives, my current guess is that if Metaculus still exists after such a transition, it will be obvious whether the transition was positive. Therefore, I leave the resolution up to moderator discretion.\nIf no such transition occurs before 2300, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:00:58.225Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 177,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since [abortion law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Poland) was restricted in 1993, the rate of legal abortions in Poland has been miniscule compared to other European Countries. The number of legal abortions performed per year stayed below the maximum of 1,110 in 2019 [[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111313/poland-number-of-legal-abortions-1994-2018/). The rate of legally conducted abortions is 30-100 times lower then in other European countries [[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/866423/abortion-rate-europe/). Pro-choice organizations argue that there is a much greater number of abortions that are performed illegally or by travel to more liberal jurisdictions.\nThe legal status of abortion, often referred to informally as \"[abortion compromise](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/ustawa-antyaborcyjna-z-1993-r-historia-i-proby-zmiany-przepisow/81tw9nz)\", was stable since 1997 when Constitutional Tribunal struck down a recently introduced provision that allowed for abortion due to \"hard living conditions or difficult personal situations\".\nSince then, abortion has been legal under three conditions:\n---danger to the life or health of the mother \n---high probability of permanent an irreversible impairment of the fetus \n---suspicion that pregnancy was caused by rape or incest \nIn November 2020, Constitutional Tribunal declared that it will strike down the provision that allowed for abortion in case of fetal impairment. The judgment went into effect on January 27. The decision caused [waves of protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_women%27s_strike_protests_in_Poland) in Poland.\nSelection of judges to the tribunal was considered illegal by opposition parties, due to [earlier controversies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Polish_Constitutional_Court_crisis). After the ruling, the tribunal was called \"[pseudotribunal](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/warszawa/tk-o-aborcji-trzaskowski-to-swiadome-i-wyrachowane-dzialanie-na-szkode-panstwa/8q9x5sm)\" and \"[an addition to the Kaczyński's party](https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020-10-23/panstwo-nie-moze-zmuszac-obywateli-do-heroizmu-holownia-o-werdykcie-tk/)\" by opposition leaders (Rafał Trzaskowski and Szymon Hołownia respectively).\nOpposition [criticized the decision](https://euobserver.com/justice/150752), including claims that the judgment is invalid and that it killed the \"abortion compromise\". They believe that the situation will allow for reevaluation of abortion law once PiS is out of power. This could bringing it closer to what is present in other nations of Europe.\nIn February 2021, leading opposition party - Civic Platform (PO) [proposed a plan](https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/polands-main-opposition-party-presents-womens-rights-project-19945) that would legalize termination of pregnancy up to 12 weeks with condition of a consultation with a physician and a psychologist.\nWill there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?\nIf any state agency of Poland will officially publish that number of abortions conducted during any year between 2020 to 2030 inclusive is at least 11,100, the question will resolve positive.\nOtherwise, if there are fewer than 11,100 legal abortions or abortion is illegal in all cases by 2030, the question will resolve negative.\nOtherwise, if no such report that provides number of legal abortions is public, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:44:39.696Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 105,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who was behind the July 2016 Turkish coup attempt?",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/who-was-behind-the-july-2016-turkish-coup-attempt-17401",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "On the evening of July 15, 2016, the world was surprised by news of a military coup in process in Turkey. Top politicians, including President Recep Tayyip Erdogan himself, and heads of the military and police were [attacked](http://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1471502/turkeys-president-erdogan-minutes-away-from-death-after-coup-plotters-stormed-hotel/) or [detained](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-security-military-chief-rescue-idUSKCN0ZW0C8), [media outlets were taken over](http://edition.cnn.com/2016/07/18/middleeast/turkey-failed-coup-explainer/), and [armed soldiers took over the streets](http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36816045). After President Erdogan issued a call to action using his mobile phone, [Turkish civilians streamed onto the streets](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/turkey-coup-astonishing-pictures-show-violent-clashes-and-mobs-attacking-soldiers-attempting-to-a7140406.html) and [confronted the Turkish military](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/16/brutal-moment-civilians-throw-stones-and-stamp-on-a-turkish-tank/), ultimately [thwarting the coup](http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/12/turkey-failed-coup-attempt-161217032345594.html). In the aftermath of the coup attempt, the Turkish government blamed Fethullah Gulen and urged the US government to extradite him, while arresting, suspending or firing [hundreds of thousands of Turkish citizens](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-security-minister-idUSKBN15F12G?il=0). Gulen for his part [condemned the coup](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/26/opinion/fethullah-gulen-i-condemn-all-threats-to-turkeys-democracy.html?_r=0) and denied any connection to it. Half a year later, the Turkish government was still [prosecuting Gulen in absentia](http://news.sky.com/story/turkey-puts-270-plotters-on-trial-over-failed-coup-10748757), [sparring with Germany and Greece](http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/turkey-urges-germany-deny-asylum-coup-linked-soldiers-45127682) about the extradition of Turks allegedly involved in the coup attempt, and warning countries in [Africa](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/turkish-president-lands-in-mozambique-for-talks/2017/01/24/49ffed02-e21f-11e6-a419-eefe8eff0835_story.html?utm_term=.a5a440925941) and [Asia ](http://english.almanar.com.lb/101957)about any involvement with the Gulen movement.\nTurkey has a [history of coups](http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2012/04/20124472814687973.html), typically being led by the military, with the stated goal of upholding Kemalist values, including secularism, and restoring order. Historically Turkish politics has been dominated by Kemalism, but over the last fifteen years, [religious parties have gradually become the most influential actors in Turkish politics](https://www.brookings.edu/research/turkey-the-new-model/), including the Sufi and modernist-leaning movement of Fethullah Gulen, and Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (the AKP). The AKP calls its ideology \"conservative democratic,\" focused on increasing religious freedom in the public sphere and economic liberalism; its critics allege [censorship of free press and illiberal authoritarianism](https://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/11/opinion/turkeys-authoritarian-drift-election-erdogan.html?_r=0).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Kemalists in the Turkish military were behind the coup attempt.",
- "probability": 0.9469540803576163,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan staged the coup as a false-flag attack.",
- "probability": 0.03625608693681129,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Supporters of Fethullah Gulen were behind the coup attempt.",
- "probability": 0.016789832705572445,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:09:13.887Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Kemalists in the Turkish military were behind the coup attempt., Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan staged the coup as a false-flag attack., Supporters of Fethullah Gulen were behind the coup attempt."
- },
- {
- "title": "Will either Sinema or Manchin leave the Democratic Party by March 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7554/Will-either-Sinema-or-Manchin-leave-the-Democratic-Party-by-March-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market will resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, either Senator Kyrsten Sinema or Senator Joe Manchin definitively and unconditionally withdraws from the Democratic Party. The participation or membership of both Senators in the Senate Democratic Caucus shall not be sufficient by itself to cause this market to resolve to No. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:02:33.954Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 231753
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1517/will-the-identity-of-bitcoins-founder-satoshi-nakamoto-be-revealed-to-the-general-public-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Few anonymous people--save maybe [Banksy](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/the-story-behind-banksy-4310304/) and [Qanon](http://nymag.com/selectall/2017/12/qanon-4chan-the-storm-conspiracy-explained.html)--have generated as much press as \"Satoshi Nakamoto\", the maverick who developed bitcoin.\nHaven't heard of the man? Here's an executive summary per [The Economist](https://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2018/09/01/satoshi-nakamoto-bitcoins-enigmatic-creator):\nON PAPER—or at least on the blockchain—Satoshi Nakamoto is one of the richest people on the planet.... But Mr Nakamoto, though actively involved with his brainchild in its early history, has been silent since 2011. An army of amateur detectives has been trying to work out who he really is, but there is frustratingly little to go on. While developing bitcoin he claimed to be male, in his late 30s and living in Japan, but even that information is suspect. \nWill we ever find out his true identity? Speculation abounds. (See [here](https://www.quora.com/Do-you-think-we-will-ever-know-who-or-what-Satoshi-Nakamoto-is-How-many-people-right-now-would-know-the-true-identity-of-Satoshi-Nakamoto) and [here](https://coinsutra.com/satoshi-nakamoto-facts/) and [here](https://medium.com/cryptomuse/how-the-nsa-caught-satoshi-nakamoto-868affcef595).) As noted above, Nakamoto is estimated to have [more than a million bitcoins](https://coincentral.com/how-rich-is-satoshi-nakamoto-today/), mined very early on. So he'd be worth well over $10Bn at current prices (as of launch), perhaps more. If he hasn't lost his thumb drive.\nQuestion resolves postive if Satoshi's true, corroborated identity is revealed to the world at large by April 5, 2025, [his birthday](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/229qvr/happy_birthday_satoshi_nakamoto/). (Or is it??)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:25:20.639Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 579,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Iowa host another \"first in the nation\" Democratic caucus by the end of 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3600/will-iowa-host-another-first-in-the-nation-democratic-caucus-by-the-end-of-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since the modern primary system was established in the United States in 1972, Iowa has had a special status as being the first state in the United States to cast ballots and award delegates for the Presidential campaigns - the coveted \"first in the nation\" status that brings much media attention (and money) to Iowa.\nOn 3 February 2020, Iowa held US caucuses. While the Republican caucus was uneventful, the Democratic caucus lead to [an unprecedented delay in reporting results](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Iowa_Democratic_caucuses#Delay_in_final_results), leading to many pundits to declare that the Iowa caucuses would be over. Most notably, David Plouffe, who ran the campaign for Barack Obama, said ”I believe caucuses are dead\" on MSNBC.\nWill this come true, or are the rumors of the death of this 48 year old tradition greatly exaggerated?\nThis question will resolve positively if, at least once before the end of 2028, Iowa holds (a) a US Democratic primary election that is both (b) a caucus (as distinct from a primary) and (c) is \"first in the nation\".\nFor the purposes of this question, a \"caucus\" is defined as any system where, (I) rather than going to polls and casting ballots, selectors gather at set locations throughout the state's precincts (e.g., schools, churches, public libraries, casinos) and (II) physically order in publicly-known preference groups and then (III) reallocate according to a viability threshold. (See [\"walking subcaucus\" voting system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walking_subcaucus) for details, though any such method meeting I-III will qualify).\nA \"first in the nation primary event\" is defined as a Presidential primary event that awards delegates to the national convention for the purposes of selecting the presidential candidate such that no other such events in that nominating process take place prior or simultaneous with the \"first in the nation primary event\".\nThe \"US Democratic primary election\" refers to a Presidential primary event that selects delegates for [the National Convention of the United States Democratic Primary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_National_Convention).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.66,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:52:42.342Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 140,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-07T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3689/will-yang-get-200k-donors-or-more-in-the-2024-us-presidential-race/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Andrew Yang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Yang) ran in the 2020 United States Democratic presidential primary. His controversial campaign platform included a $1k/month universal basic income. Despite strong grassroots support qualifying him for seven debates, he withdrew from the race after the New Hampshire primary.\nThis question will resolve positively if Andrew Yang gets at least 200,000 total unique campaign donors at any point in the 2024 United States presidential race. Otherwise, it will resolve negatively. This question is not dependent on Yang's party affiliation.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:55:15.608Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 167,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T03:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[According to current IPCC estimates](http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf), unmitigated greenhouse emissions are likely to lead to global temperature increases of 2.6ºC-4.8ºC by 2100. If this happened, there’d likely be significant humanitarian harms, including more severe weather, food crises, and the spread of infectious diseases which would disproportionately affect the world’s worst off.\nMoreover, the [estimated humanitarian impacts of climate changes are likely to be highly nonlinear](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks): marginal temperature increases are expected to cause more damage at already-increased temperatures (i.e. going from 3ºC to 4ºC is expected to be significantly worse than going from 1ºC to 2ºC). \n[According to some](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks), there is also a non-negligible chance — perhaps around 10% — that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases even higher than 4.8ºC. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a [“fat” right tail](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-e-mann/the-fat-tail-of-climate-change-risk_b_8116264.html), meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases. Hence, there is a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions may produce consequences which could be catastrophic for life on Earth. \nFor example, [it has been argued](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote7_jr7z9s5) that a 12ºC increase in mean global temperature—which is substantially outside the range considered plausible this century—would cause at least one day each year in the territories where half of all people live today to be hot enough to exceed human metabolic limits and cause tissue damage from hyperthermia after a few hours of exposure. \nOne way to reduce global temperatures quickly and cheaply is a form of climate engineering called [Solar Radiation Management (SRM)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management), which involves [cooling the Earth by reflecting sunlight back into space](http://johnhalstead.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Halstead-Stratospheric-aerosol-injection-research-and-exist.pdf). The most researched form of SRM involves injecting aerosols into the stratosphere. Most of the evidence so far suggests that ideal SRM deployment programmes would reduce overall damages relative to an un-engineered greenhouse world. \nHowever, SRM brings its own risks. Of the currently known potential negative direct effects of SRM, only abrupt termination could plausibly bring about an existential catastrophe. If a very thick stratospheric veil were deployed and SRM was suddenly terminated and not resumed within a buffer period of a few months, then there would be very rapid and damaging warming. [There might also be some reasons](https://nickbostrom.com/papers/unilateralist.pdf) to expect the chance of at least one country to undertake climate engineering to be surprisingly high, especially when the relevant technologies are widespread, and the lack of global coordination permits each country to individually decide for or against the intervention.\n[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years or less. This question resolves ambiguously if no such global catastrophe occurs. On the other hand...\nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to human-made climate change, or the use of geoengineering as a deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s climate system?\nThe question results positively if a human-made climate change or geoengineering catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100. This catastrophe must be due to the direct effects of climate change that are generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no global warming but otherwise similar to ours. These include (but are not limited to) floods, extreme weather, the spreading of infectious disease, and the health effects of extreme heat. Finally, the effects due to the effects of the use of geoengineering that has been principally motivated to mitigate climate change risks, also count towards the population decline. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:24:43.514Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 368,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-06-01T22:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be elected president of France in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7360/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-France-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 presidential election in France.\nIf no presidential election is held in 2022, all contracts shall resolve as No. For purposes of resolving this market, a presidential election held in 2022 shall include the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner, even if such runoff occurs after 2022.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Emmanuel Macron",
- "probability": 0.658119658119658,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Valérie Pécresse",
- "probability": 0.11965811965811965,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marine Le Pen",
- "probability": 0.06837606837606837,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Éric Zemmour",
- "probability": 0.04273504273504273,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nathalie Arthaud",
- "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Philippe Poutou",
- "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Fabien Roussel",
- "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Anne Hidalgo",
- "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yannick Jadot",
- "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Xavier Bertrand",
- "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Arnaud Montebourg",
- "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon ",
- "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Michel Barnier",
- "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "François Baroin",
- "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "N. Dupont-Aignan",
- "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "François Asselineau",
- "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Christiane Taubira",
- "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:59:51.749Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 624518
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Emmanuel Macron, Valérie Pécresse, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, Nathalie Arthaud, Philippe Poutou, Fabien Roussel, Anne Hidalgo, Yannick Jadot, Xavier Bertrand, Arnaud Montebourg, Jean-Luc Mélenchon , Michel Barnier, François Baroin, N. Dupont-Aignan, François Asselineau, Christiane Taubira"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8541/iran-nuclear-deal-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics. See in particular [a \"by 2023\" version of this same question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7840/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2023/).\nThe [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. On 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\nOn 2020-09-13, [President-Elect Biden stated that](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-01/features/returning-progress-iran) if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" [Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif stated that](https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-iran-usa-zarif-idUKKBN27X340) the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions against Iran to the extent previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2024-01-01, 00:00 EST. The order must go into effect before 2024-01-01; a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statement will suffice as a source.\nSee also:\n--- \n[Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7840/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2023/)\n--- \n[Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8160/us-iran-war-by-2024/)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:58:55.719Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 59,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3778/will-a-democratic-nation-whose-economy-transitions-from-capitalist-to-market-socialist-sustain-adequate-economic-growth/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Assume for the purposes of this question that before 2070 and after January 1st 2020, a democratic nation transitions their economy into a market socialist system. Market socialism is defined by Wikipedia [as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_socialism),\na type of economic system involving the public, cooperative or social ownership of the means of production in the framework of a market economy. Market socialism differs from non-market socialism in that the market mechanism is utilized for the allocation of capital goods and the means of production. Depending on the specific model of market socialism, profits generated by socially owned firms (i.e. net revenue not reinvested into expanding the firm) may variously be used to directly remunerate employees, accrue to society at large as the source of public finance or be distributed amongst the population in a social dividend.\nMarket socialism is distinguished from the concept of the mixed economy because models of market socialism are complete and self-regulating systems, unlike the mixed economy. Market socialism also contrasts with social democratic policies implemented within capitalist market economies. While social democracy aims to achieve greater economic stability and equality through policy measures such as taxes, subsidies and social welfare programs, market socialism aims to achieve similar goals through changing patterns of enterprise ownership and management.\nA nation is said to be a democracy if they score at least 7.0 on the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). An economy is said to have transitioned from capitalism to market socialism if at least five reliable media sources describe the economy as primarily driven by market socialism, by the definition given above (or something very close, determined by Metaculus moderators), and describe the previous economy as primarily capitalist.\nAn economy is said to sustain adequate growth if in the 15 years following the date of transition (which is determined by the implementation date of the most significant legislation/constitution that is widely recognized as marking the transition, as determined by a Metaculus moderator) the nation maintains at least 85% of the mean real GDP growth, relative to the previous 15 years, excluding the year of implementation. In the event of multiple transitions, only the first such country to transition should be taken into consideration.\nThis question asks, Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth?\nIf such a nation sustains adequate growth, this question resolves postively. If such a nation sustains below adequate growth, this question resolves negatively. If no democratic nation transitions their economy to market socialism before 2070 and after January 1st 2020, this question resolves ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:56:52.345Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2067-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8601/glp-1-based-drug-approval-by-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Pharmaceutical researchers have recently made progress in weight-loss management with the development of [Semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide) which has demonstrated [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% weight loss in subjects. Side effects are relatively minor, and it is administered as a once-per-week injection.\nUltimately, non-protein “small molecule” drugs that activate GLP-1 receptors may offer advantages over proteins like semaglutide. These advantages include potentially lower cost of production in less specialized facilities, good oral availability, and longer shelf-life. In June of 2020, Pfizer presented [promising results](https://doi.org/10.2337/db20-353-OR) from a phase 1 trial of a small molecule GLP-1 receptor activator, PF-06882961, in people with type 2 diabetes. Over 28 days of treatment, the drug substantially improved blood glucose control and reduced body weight by 2-9%, depending on dose. Novo Nordisk may be [working in the area](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0605701104) as well.\nWill a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?\nThis question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency approve a small-molecule GLP-1-based drug for the purpose of weight loss by 2029-01-01.\n“Small molecule GLP-1-based drug” is defined here as a drug that is not based on a protein and is intended to act on the GLP-1 receptor as its primary biological target, or as a major biological target. For context, all drugs with current (2021) regulatory approval that target the GLP-1 system are based on proteins.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:02:14.185Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-05T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many total deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported as of 1 May 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2231-how-many-total-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-us-will-be-reported-as-of-1-may-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The rise of the Omicron variant is raising concerns about COVID-19 in the US over the winter ([USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/12/19/omicron-variant-doubling-covid-updates/8952895002/), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/19/health/us-coronavirus-sunday/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the CDC ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_totaldeaths), parameters are set with the link). The data for 1 May 2022 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 6 May 2022. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 900,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 900,000 and 975,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 975,000 but fewer than 1,050,000",
- "probability": 0.68,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1,050,000 and 1,125,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 1,125,000 but fewer than 1,200,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1,200,000 and 1,275,000 inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 1,275,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:01:40.245Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 350,
- "numforecasters": 106,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 900,000, Between 900,000 and 975,000, inclusive, More than 975,000 but fewer than 1,050,000, Between 1,050,000 and 1,125,000, inclusive, More than 1,125,000 but fewer than 1,200,000, Between 1,200,000 and 1,275,000 inclusive, More than 1,275,000"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will OpenSea airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opensea-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if OpenSea will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.111098405107314831125165856799492",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.888901594892685168874834143200508",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.517Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "251",
- "liquidity": "2167.05",
- "tradevolume": "21259.75",
- "stars": 4
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x7C3dE6E61Be6920eA16e141558A65F9B36a79b64"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The question of whether China's GDP figures are an understatement, accurate, or an overstatement crops up periodically. Some new notable cases have been made that Chinese GDP growth in recent years has been exaggerated. From March 7th 2019, see this [Bloomberg article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-08/china-s-gdp-growth-pace-was-inflated-for-nine-years-study-finds), and a similar take by the [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2189052/china-exaggerated-gdp-data-2-percentage-points-least-nine). They cite [this paper](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/BPEA-2019-Forensic-Analysis-China.pdf) by the Brookings Institute, which describes an escalating discrepancy between provincially-reported numbers and nationally-reported numbers.\nSeparately, US economist Michael Pettis of Peking University says that Chinese gross domestic product is overestimated since [\"bad debt is not written down\"](https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2189245/chinas-gdp-growth-could-be-half-reported-number-says-us). That's another SCMP article, March 10th 2019.\nNote that there have been papers and arguments to the contrary. For instance [this paper](https://www.nber.org/papers/w23323) arguing that it may be understated based on nighttime satellite luminosity measures. Later in that same year (2017) the exact opposite was argued in [this paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3093296) (also using nighttime luminosity data); that China's growth has been exaggerated, and even that this finding generalizes to authoritarian regimes.\nThere was also that moment back in 2010 when [Li Keqiang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Keqiang) reportedly [stated explicitly](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-wikileaks/chinas-gdp-is-man-made-unreliable-top-leader-idUSTRE6B527D20101206) that \"China’s GDP figures are man-made and therefore unreliable\". Li Keqiang has since become the 7th Premier of the People's Republic of China and currently still in office as of this writing.\nThus, it is asked: will real (inflation-adjusted) Chinese GDP numbers be revised down by more than 5%, to undo the prior exaggeration?\nFor resolution, there are a couple of different scenarios to consider:\n1-- \nAlready-reported official figures in recent years being revised down by 5% or lower by the Chinese government. For example: 2018's end-of-year figure of $13.4 trillion USD having a newly-reported figure of $12.73 trillion USD or less. The reduction would naturally also apply to future real GDP figures (such as for 2019), but I think for the purposes of this question we will permit future exaggerations to their real GDP growth rate; a one-time reduction counts as positive resolution.\n2-- \nAlternatively, if the Chinese government does not explicitly revise its past data for continuity and simply posts the (hopefully more accurate) new figure for 2019 under a separate method, then we would consider it positive resolution IF for instance the figure for 2019 real GDP failed to grow beyond 2018's (formerly-claimed) figure of $13.4 trillion USD. This is roughly similar to a revision to 2018 of 5% or more, as the official real GDP growth target for 2019 is 6% to 6.5%. In order to distinguish this event from a recession, we will look to official statements that would presumably be included to clarify the drop in real GDP. If for some weird reason this kind of official statement is not included, then we could use other indications to confirm if it's a recession (such as recessions happening elsewhere, or the [Purchasing Manager's Index](https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/Page.mvc/PressReleases)). There will likely be some sort of statement made about the revision if there is one so I don't think this will be ambiguous, but distinguishing the revision from a recession given no official statement is a weakly defined part of the question, so feel free to scrutinize.\nFor future inflation adjustments, we will be using 2018 as the price level base year.\nThis resolves negatively if neither 1 nor 2 happen before January 1st, 2023. Resolves positively if either of those two are deemed to have occurred. Resolution will be based on media reports by reputable financial institutions, by a report from the Chinese government, or by this [Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_GDP_of_China#China_NBS_data).\nIn order to immortalize the already-reported figures with which to make comparisons to future reported figures, I have download data from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=CN) and preserved the currently official figures in [this spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NRPU368_gQMl5x4oHTTbmpPQPh5248AmXTv9JjuTai4/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:34:07.919Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-04-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:34.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 87705
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Trump be charged with a crime in Georgia by Sept. 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7715/Will-Trump-be-charged-with-a-crime-in-Georgia-by-Sept-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes if the State of Georgia, or any county, municipality, or other subdivision thereof, unseals or otherwise officially announces a criminal indictment of former President Donald Trump by the End Date listed below. \nAn indictment that has been issued but remains sealed or otherwise secret at the End Date shall not be sufficient to resolve this market. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 09/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:07:56.249Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 19348
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)\nWill Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?\nThis will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:41:33.780Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 300,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which NHL team will win the 2022 Stanley Cup Final?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2178-which-nhl-team-will-win-the-2022-stanley-cup-final",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The 2022 Stanley Cup Final is scheduled to conclude no later than 30 June 2022 ([Sportsnaut](https://sportsnaut.com/2021-2022-nhl-season-important-dates/), [NHL](https://www.nhl.com/standings/2021/division)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Boston Bruins",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Carolina Hurricanes",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Colorado Avalanche",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Edmonton Oilers",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Florida Panthers",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Minnesota Wild",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "New York Rangers",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "St. Louis Blues",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tampa Bay Lightning",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Toronto Maple Leafs",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Vegas Golden Knights",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Washington Capitals",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Another team",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:03:18.585Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 161,
- "numforecasters": 25,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Boston Bruins, Carolina Hurricanes, Colorado Avalanche, Edmonton Oilers, Florida Panthers, Minnesota Wild, New York Rangers, St. Louis Blues, Tampa Bay Lightning, Toronto Maple Leafs, Vegas Golden Knights, Washington Capitals, Another team"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/916/will-another-911-on-us-soil-be-prevented-at-least-through-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of mid-2018, it's been almost 17 years since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks that destroyed the Twin Towers in New York and damaged the Pentagon. Nearly 3,000 people died in the attack. Since that time, fortunately, there hasn't been another attack on the U.S. homeland that's anywhere close to the size and scale of 9/11.\nHowever, we cannot rest easy.\nAs The Atlantic [reported](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/09/are-we-any-safer/492761/) in September 2016:\nAre we safer? Yes, we’re safer from the kind of orchestrated attack that shocked us on that September morning. It’s harder for terrorists to get into the country, and harder for them to pull off something spectacular if they do. But we have not plugged some of the most threatening security gaps. \nA special report compiled by the Heritage Foundation examined [60 terrorist plots](https://www.heritage.org/terrorism/report/60-terrorist-plots-911-continued-lessons-domestic-counterterrorism) that have unfolded since 9/11.\nHow long can our luck – and the good work of law enforcement – hold out?\nCan we prevent a US terrorist attack equal to (or worse than) 9/11 in terms of lives lost, at least through the year 2030? \nFor these purposes, a terrorist attack will point to something purposeful but not directly implemented by a nation-state's government and military.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:16:54.271Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 252,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden’s approval rating be higher than his disapproval rating on any day in 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-higher-than-his-disapproval-rating-on-any-day-in-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden’s approval rating be higher than his disapproval rating, as per FiveThirtyEight, on any day of 2022.\n\nThe resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator,\n(https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), specifically, the approval rating indicated by the green trend line and the disapproval rating indicated by the orange line for the resolution date. \n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes”, if for any day on or after January 1, 2022 and before January 1 2023, Joe Biden's approval rating by FiveThirtyEight is higher than the disapproval rating.\n\nChanges in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the outlined event occurs. The last check will be on January 1, 2023, 12:00 PM ET. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the last check, the resolution source will be checked every 24 hours until the rating for the resolution date is available. If the ratings are still not available on the resolution source a week later or Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval ratings.\n\nIf the resolution source link changes, the new link will be used.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.318849554030105764474342688540671",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.681150445969894235525657311459329",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.517Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "50",
- "liquidity": "2448.73",
- "tradevolume": "2302.74",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x52778dfC20BFbE896e9165d439f4Fc5Fba448BFb"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Russian troops enter Kiev, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9566/russian-troops-in-odessa-2022/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9517/russian-troops-enter-mariupol/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9539/russian-troops-enter-kharkiv/)\nAccording to [CNN and the Ukranian Defense Ministry](https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/18/europe/ukraine-intelligence-russia-military-build-up-intl/index.html), Russia has at least 127,000 troops massed outside of Ukraine as of January 19, 2022. If Russia does in fact invade, there are questions of\n--- \nRussian objectives (how limited or extreme the incursion into Ukraine would be)\n--- \nthe stiffness of the Ukrainian opposition\n--- \nRussian logistical capabilities.\nWith [Kiev](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyiv) being both the capital of Ukraine and approximately 380 km (240 miles) from the Russian border, reaching the city with ground forces might represent one of the more extreme outcomes in the range of possibilities. \nWill Russian troops enter Kiev, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if Russian troops have entered Kiev, Ukraine before December 31, 2022, according to credible media reports. For the purposes of this question, \"entering Kiev\" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Kiev for any length of time against the consent of the Ukranian government. A repelled attack on Kiev still would count, provided it could be ascertained to a high degree of confidence that at least 100 Russian troops were within city limits.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:41:02.198Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 139,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-21T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2561/will-a-metaculus-user-report-from-space-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Short and fun question: Will a registered Metaculus user post a comment under this question from space before 2050? A photo would be nice too :) !\nFor this question to resolve positively the user must be at least 80km above the surface of the Earth at the time of posting the comment. Comments posted before launch or after landing will not count, sorry :) .\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/) \n---[When will the 10,000th human reach space? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:31:29.148Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 218,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-16T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7565/recurring-lockdowns-during-2030-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockdown),\nA lockdown is a restriction policy for people or community to stay where they are, usually due to specific risks to themselves or to others if they can move and interact freely. The term \"stay-at-home\" or \"shelter-in-place\" is often used for lockdowns that affect an area, rather than specific locations. [...]\nDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, the term lockdown was used for actions related to mass quarantines or stay-at-home orders. The first lockdown during the pandemic was implemented in Wuhan on January 23, 2020. By early April 2020, 3.9 billion people worldwide were under some form of lockdown—more than half the world's population. By late April, around 300 million people were under lockdown in nations of Europe, while around 200 million people were under lockdown in Latin America. Nearly 300 million people, or about 90 per cent of the population, were under some form of lockdown in the United States, and 1.3 billion people have been under lockdown in India.\nThe COVID-19 lockdowns were unique in global history. Before, quarantines were more localized, and stay-at-home orders were rare, owing to the fact that most people could not work from home. The rise of internet work has enabled stay-at-home orders. \nNatural viral spillover events are [common](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2546865/) and may be becoming more common as the human population rises. Furthermore, the [stupendous fall of deaths from infectious disease](https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Trends-in-infectious-disease-mortality-in-the-the-Armstrong-Conn/81ae570a2f918efc8a0763490dc56086531076fc/figure/0) has arguably lowered humanity's threshold for the type of infectious event considered worthy of lockdown as a means of prevention.\nDuring the mid 21st century, it may become possible for small groups to artificially engineer viruses using new techniques like [CRISPR/Cas9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR). Deepmind's recent [open-sourcing of AlphaFold 2](https://deepmind.com/research/open-source/alphafold) and [its predictions](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03828-1) is expected to greatly enhance our understanding of biology, which may ultimately end up being used for detrimental purposes. This question asks about a secondary effect from viruses in the 21st century: will we keep going on lockdown?\nWill there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?\nLockdowns are said to be \"recurring\" during the period 2030-2050 if any of the following become true during that time period,\n--- \nAt least three separate virus species, according to the [ICTV classification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virus_classification) of viruses, are reported to have triggered at least three separate global lockdown events, defined as events in which at least 50% of the world population simultaneously live under stay-at-home orders for some period of time.\n--- \nDuring at least five separate incidents, it is not possible to see an in-person [Broadway Show](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broadway_theatre) in New York City due to stay-at-home orders in New York City as a result of a viral event. An incident is said to be separate if Broadway theaters lifted restrictions for some time, before being mandated again.\n--- \nThe Summer Olympic Games OR Winter Olympic Games are rescheduled at least three times as a result of viral related events.\nDisputes related to question wording will be determined using admin discretion. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:19:36.931Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a complete 4 year interval by 2050 in which world output doubles?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5406/world-output-doubles-in-4-years-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 2018, it's taken [about 16 years for the world economic output to double](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence.\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example.\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same article for Christiano's list of arguments regarding fast vs. slow takeoff.)\nWill there be a complete 4 year interval by 2050 in which world output doubles?\nResolution is by credible assessment of world GDP in constant US dollars (or other appropriately widely-accepted units).\nThis question will resolve positively if world output doubles in a period of 4 years or less before 2050. It resolves negatively otherwise, i.e. if the following related question resolves ambiguously:\n---[Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:22:14.027Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 87,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the federal funds rate be above 0.5% following the Fed's June meeting? ",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/FED-014",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If the target federal funds rate is greater than 0.5% following the Federal Reserve's June 15, 2022 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see FED in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their June 15, 2022 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting. . The resolution source is: The upper bound of the target federal funds range published on the Federal Reserve official website. (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.050000000000000044,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4,
- "yes_bid": 93,
- "yes_ask": 96,
- "spread": 3,
- "shares_volume": 28070
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3458/will-there-be-a-culturally-significant-development-in-aging-research-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2019, at a speech at the Foresight Institute, biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey [stated](https://youtu.be/QmoYYewuw-c?t=660):\nI think we are still 15-20 years away [from effective anti-aging therapies] but the anticipation of the therapy by the general public is coming soon, and it is that anticipation that is going to be the point when the shit really hits the fan. If you think about a situation in which less than five years from now [...] in a period of about a week, half of the developed world is going to shift from an expectation that they will live only slightly longer than their parents did, into an expectation that they're going to live far longer than anyone has ever lived.\nIf half of the people in the developed world came to believe within a period of a week that effective anti-aging therapies were imminent, this would likely be a culturally significant event, perhaps among the most significant in the 2020's.\nThis question resolves positively if any of the terms \"aging\", \"ageing\", \"anti-aging\", \"anti-ageing\", \"longevity\", \"lifespan\", \"rejuvenation\", or \"life extension\" are mentioned as a direct reference to longevity research* in any of the following media sources produced between January 1st 2020 and January 1st 2030 UTC:\n1-- \nThe English Wikipedia's \"In the news\" [section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:In_the_news).\nor\n2-- \n[History.com](http://History.com)'s summary of events for a year in the 2020's.\nor\n3-- \nThe transcript for a primary or general presidential election debate in America.\nIt also resolves positively if:\n4--A longevity researcher receives Time's Person of the Year for their work on defeating aging. \nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030.\nIn case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event.\n* \"longevity research\" here means the research comes from a group whose explicit purpose (as defined by their charter, or their about page on their website, or by some official statement made by the organisation which pertains to their research ends) is to slow, halt, or reverse the natural aging process. Examples of research groups which meet this criteria are the SENS Research Foundation and The Sinclair Lab at Harvard.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:50:08.736Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 408,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-12T12:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-10-29T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Between 24 December 2021 and 31 March 2022, what will be the highest seven-day average for COVID-19 patients in the UK to be admitted to [a] hospital?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2230-between-24-december-2021-and-31-march-2022-what-will-be-the-highest-seven-day-average-for-covid-19-patients-in-the-uk-to-be-admitted-to-a-hospital",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The rise of the Omicron variant in the UK has raised fears of a \"tidal wave\" of COVID-19 cases ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/13/uk/uk-omicron-infections-tidal-wave-gbr-intl/index.html), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-20/u-k-debates-christmas-lockdown-amid-omicron-driven-covid-surge?sref=Wf79ZABI)). The outcome will be determined using 7-day average data as reported by the UK Health Security Agency ([UK Health Security Agency](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare), see \"Patients admitted to hospital\" set to \"Daily\"). Due to reporting lags, data for specific dates will not be evaluated for resolution until at least seven calendar days later (e.g., data for 1 January 2022 wouldn't be evaluated until 8 January 2022). If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 1,500",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1,500 and 2,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 2,000 but less that 2,500",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 2,500 and 3,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 3,000 but less than 3,500",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 3,500 and 4,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 4,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:01:42.820Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 334,
- "numforecasters": 64,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1,500, Between 1,500 and 2,000, inclusive, More than 2,000 but less that 2,500, Between 2,500 and 3,000, inclusive, More than 3,000 but less than 3,500, Between 3,500 and 4,000, inclusive, More than 4,000"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8600/oral-semaglutide-approval-by-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide) (also known as Wegovy, Ozempic, or Rybelsus) is a drug [approved in June 2021](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-drug-treatment-chronic-weight-management-first-2014) which has demonstrated [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% weight loss in subjects. However, it does come with the inconvenient administration method of a once-per-week injection.\nSemaglutide is a (modified) protein, which creates technical challenges. First, it’s expensive to produce and requires specialized facilities. Second, it’s most naturally administered as an injection, because if a person ingests it, it gets digested and inactivated just like the proteins in a piece of cheese. However, Novo Nordisk has developed technology that allows the protein to be absorbed intact from the digestive tract into circulation, allowing it to be delivered in pill form. The oral semaglutide pill is FDA approved for the treatment of diabetes and marketed as Rybelsus.\nOral semaglutide is convenient for patients, but it has not yet been approved for the treatment of obesity. Novo Nordisk [plans to initiate](https://www.pharmatimes.com/news/novo_nordisk_plans_study_of_oral_semaglutide_in_obesity_1367847) a phase 3a trial of oral semaglutide for obesity this year (2021), suggesting that the company will probably seek regulatory approval for the treatment of obesity. The trial will last 68 weeks.\nWill oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?\nThis question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency approve an orally-administered form of Semaglutide (AKA Rybelsus) for the purpose of weight loss by 2027-01-01. This may include a successful development from Novo Nordisk, or any other pharmaceutical company.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:02:09.065Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-12T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be the next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson?",
- "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234",
- "platform": "Betfair",
- "description": "This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Conservative Party leader after Boris Johnson, as chosen by a Conservative Party leadership contest. Betfair reserves the right to suspend, cancel unmatched bets and turn in-play or re-open this market as and when information becomes available to it. Additional runners may be added upon request. In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made by The Conservative Party. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. PLEASE NOTE Just after 20:00 (GMT) on 6 April 2020, mainstream media reported that Prime Minister Boris Johnson had been moved to intensive care due to his ill health. Within an hour of this news coming to our attention, we suspended the following market on the Betfair Exchange. Given the exceptional circumstances, these markets will remain suspended and unavailable for trading until further notice. You will still be able to view details of your open bets in the ‘My Bets’ section of your account. Any unmatched bets on these markets (including keep bets) have been cancelled",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Rishi Sunak",
- "probability": 0.31318625418770213,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Liz Truss",
- "probability": 0.1318678965000851,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jeremy Hunt",
- "probability": 0.09544723937149018,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tom Tugendhat",
- "probability": 0.09544723937149018,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Penny Mordaunt",
- "probability": 0.06681306756004313,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Michael Gove",
- "probability": 0.034558483220711964,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sajid Javid",
- "probability": 0.04555436424548395,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dominic Raab",
- "probability": 0.01822174569819358,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ben Wallace",
- "probability": 0.03711837086669062,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Steve Baker",
- "probability": 0.01670326689001078,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nadhim Zahawi",
- "probability": 0.022777182122741976,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Priti Patel",
- "probability": 0.01670326689001078,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg",
- "probability": 0.00835163344500539,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mark Harper",
- "probability": 0.00911087284909679,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kwasi Kwarteng",
- "probability": 0.00835163344500539,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Johnny Mercer",
- "probability": 0.0050109800670032345,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kemi Badenoch",
- "probability": 0.0050109800670032345,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Oliver Dowden",
- "probability": 0.007709200103081899,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Therese Coffey",
- "probability": 0.0027086378740558024,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rory Stewart",
- "probability": 0.0033406533780021563,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "James Cleverly",
- "probability": 0.002783877815001797,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Grant Shapps",
- "probability": 0.002947635333531314,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ruth Davidson",
- "probability": 0.0025697333676939662,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alok Sharma",
- "probability": 0.0020452979865319327,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Anne-Marie Trevelyan",
- "probability": 0.0020879083612513477,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brandon Lewis",
- "probability": 0.0010226489932659664,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Matt Hancock",
- "probability": 0.0010123192054551989,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nadine Dorries",
- "probability": 0.0010226489932659664,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Amanda Milling",
- "probability": 0.0010021960134006468,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "George Eustice",
- "probability": 0.0012527450167508086,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrea Leadsom",
- "probability": 0.0016703266890010782,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Robert Buckland",
- "probability": 0.0013728712512337629,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Theresa May",
- "probability": 0.0010549431720006809,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Will Quince",
- "probability": 0.0010021960134006468,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Robert Jenrick",
- "probability": 0.0010021960134006468,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jesse Norman",
- "probability": 0.0010021960134006468,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Suella Braverman",
- "probability": 0.0010021960134006468,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ranil Jayawardena",
- "probability": 0.0010021960134006468,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Simon Hart",
- "probability": 0.0010021960134006468,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Natalie Evans",
- "probability": 0.0010021960134006468,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alister Jack",
- "probability": 0.0010021960134006468,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Amber Rudd",
- "probability": 0.0010021960134006468,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Gavin Williamson",
- "probability": 0.0010123192054551989,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Geoffrey Cox",
- "probability": 0.0010021960134006468,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tobias Ellwood",
- "probability": 0.007709200103081899,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Steve Barclay",
- "probability": 0.015418400206163798,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:00:25.984Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4,
- "volume": 148465.34
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, Jeremy Hunt, Tom Tugendhat, Penny Mordaunt, Michael Gove, Sajid Javid, Dominic Raab, Ben Wallace, Steve Baker, Nadhim Zahawi, Priti Patel, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Mark Harper, Kwasi Kwarteng, Johnny Mercer, Kemi Badenoch, Oliver Dowden, Therese Coffey, Rory Stewart, James Cleverly, Grant Shapps, Ruth Davidson, Alok Sharma, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Brandon Lewis, Matt Hancock, Nadine Dorries, Amanda Milling, George Eustice, Andrea Leadsom, Robert Buckland, Theresa May, Will Quince, Robert Jenrick, Jesse Norman, Suella Braverman, Ranil Jayawardena, Simon Hart, Natalie Evans, Alister Jack, Amber Rudd, Gavin Williamson, Geoffrey Cox, Tobias Ellwood, Steve Barclay"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of question writing, all known life is carbon-based, in the sense that it needs to contain carbon atoms to survive.\nBut life could take many forms:\n---Wikipedia has a handy list of [hypothetical types of biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry), notably [silicon biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry#Silicon_biochemistry). \n---Life could be based on non-organic chemistry (e.g. [inorganic chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inorganic_chemistry), or [nuclear chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_chemistry) in the degenerate crust on the surface of a neutron star*). \n---Life could also not be chemistry based at all. It could be electrical (e.g. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)) or mechanical (e.g. [clockwork](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steampunk)). \n---Life could operate on vastly different time / space scales from us (e.g. a cloud of interstellar stuff somehow consistently implementing a sentient computation). \nThese examples are not necessarily mutually exclusive, and I obviously make no claim regarding their respective feasibility/likelihood. They are rather meant to suggest the vastness of design-space.\nQuestion: If we encounter a phenomenon that is widely considered by the scientific community to be an alien life-form, will all simple life-forms we discover be carbon-based?\nLife-form details:\n1--The life-form has to have originated independently from earth life. That is: earth life can be a consequence of the alien life-form, they can share a cause, but earth life cannot have caused the alien life. \n2--The life-forms that count for this question are ones on the complexity level of our single-celled organisms or lower (as determined by a poll of xeno-biologists if there is any ambiguity). If there are none, then the simplest life-forms we have found are taken for resolution. \n3--The life-form has to need less than 1% of its atoms to be carbon atoms in order to keep being alive. It can incidentally contain carbon atoms, as long as they could theoretically be absent and the life-form still be alive. \nResolution details:\n---The scientific community has to have reached a consensus as judged by Metaculus admins. \n---This resolves positive if any life-form we encounter satisfies points 1. 2. and 3. \n---This resolves negative if all the life-forms we encounter that satisfy points 1. and 2. do not satisfiy point 3. \n---This resolves ambiguous if no life-form that satisfies point 1. is found before 2500, or if before then we have conclusive evidence that none exists in the observable universe. \n---This resolves 50 years after we first discover an alien life-form that satisfies condition 1., to give time for consensus forming. \n* My thanks to @(Uncle Jeff) for this example.\nNote that in this sense Humans are only \"based\" on hydrogen (60%), oxygen (25%), carbon (10%) and nitrogen (1.5%). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.16000000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:42:45.187Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 235,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2500-10-02T16:08:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2500-10-02T16:08:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will average daily COVID-19 case numbers in Italy be above 75,000 for the week ending February 15, 2022?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/EUCOV-021",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If the average number of new COVID-19 cases in Italy in the period between in the period between February 09, 2022 and February 15, 2022 is greater than 75,000, then the contract resolves to Yes. Else, the contract resolves to No.\n\nThe market will close and expire at the sooner of 10:00 AM on the first day following the release of the data for February 15, 2022, or 10:00 AM on March 01, 2022.\nPlease see EUCOV in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.. The resolution source is: The number of new COVID-19 cases for each day in the period between February 09, 2022 and February 15, 2022 for Italy as reported by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.782Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "yes_bid": 2,
- "yes_ask": 5,
- "spread": 3,
- "shares_volume": 2728
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3364/will-metaculus-or-a-licensed-derivative-be-operated-as-a-public-site-by-a-publicly-traded-company-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Some quite successful companies are not publicly traded, such as Cargill, Albertsons and Koch Industries, see Statista's [largest private US companies by revenue](https://www.statista.com/statistics/549091/largest-private-us-companies-by-revenue/) for further examples.\nHowever, for many companies, \"going public\" is a major milestone. Going public allows company founders to \"cash out\" and diversify their portfolios. It also can allow a company to obtain much greater funding than it might from private sources.\nQuestion: Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?\nThe obvious case in which this will be true is if the company owning and operating this site, [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) is a publicly traded company. Either Metaculus would go public itself or a portion of the Metaculus company would be purchased by a publicly traded company at a price that would place the company's value as at least $300 million.\nI included operation by a publicly traded company as an option here to handle a situation in which a publicly traded company is making substantial commitment to this technology. That should at least involve license payments to Metaculus of at least $300 million in some year that at least half of which come from publicly traded companies.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:46:47.487Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 102,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-12-15T03:35:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-22T03:35:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a sample of negative energy be produced by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/600/will-a-sample-of-negative-energy-be-produced-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Warp drives. Wormholes. Time machines. These exotic structures are the stuff of science fiction, but also have valid mathematical structures behind them in the form of spacetime \"metrics\" one can write down with the requisite properties.\nThere is one major physical issue standing in the way actually making them, however: all these possibilities require negative energy. \nMore specifically, relativists have devised a number of mathematical conditions that may be assumed regarding matter and energy, known as \"energy conditions.\" Wormhole, warp-drive, and time-machine solutions to Einstein's equations essentially always require some substance that violates the \"weak energy condition\" (WEC), and generally others. Most simply, the WEC states that in the restframe of a material, its energy density is non-negative. (Technically the substance's pressure also must be sufficiently non-negative; see e.g. [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_condition) for a brief description, and a good relativity text like [this one](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/9712019) for more gory detail, and [here](http://strangebeautiful.com/papers/curiel-primer-energy-conds.pdf) for a recent, interesting review.)\nThese energy conditions are generically violated at the quantum level, because quantum mechanics entails uncertainty in the energy of a system over a very short time period, so must allow very brief negative-energy fluctuations. But macroscopic amounts of negative energy do not appear possible with any particles or fields we know to exist.\nOn the other hand, it is somewhat unclear what fundamentally forbids negative energy. Negative energy particles would be bad news, as they would likely render low-energy particles unstable to decay into positive and negative energy ones – such a universe would not last long. But could we devise some strange substance that has the property, using something like the [Casimir effect](http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/physics/Quantum/casimir.html), that takes empty space and removes some energy from it? It sees plausible that negative energy is closely [related to violations of the second law of thermodynamics,](http://inspirehep.net/record/835580?ln=en) which would mean that it is very, very hard to violate. But maybe not impossible. \"Violations\" of the second law (downward movements in entropy) can happen if you [wait long enough,](https://arxiv.org/abs/1108.0417) or if you set up very, very careful initial conditions (see, e.g. [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.03323)) So it does not seem impossible that with a high level of tuning a sample of negative energy could be made, though the author is not at all clear how...\nSo instead we ask:\nWill a sample of negative energy material be created by the year 2100? \nTo be specific, we'll ask whether > 10 proton masses worth of negative energy will be created and confined to a volume of less than 1 cubic centimeter for longer than 1 microsecond, in such a way that during that microsecond there exists a volume of space that could be considered to have a mass of less than -10 proton masses. (As of 2017, the record for antimatter, an altogether easier substance to make, was [about 300 proton masses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antimatter).)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:13:47.483Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 283,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-01-29T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the annual rate of inflation for the eurozone in October 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2216-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-inflation-for-the-eurozone-in-october-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "After years of failing to reach the European Central Bank's (ECB's) inflation target of 2%, estimated November 2021 inflation figures for in the eurozone reached an all-time high in the 25 years since the data have been compiled, an annual rate of change of 4.9% ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/30/inflation-euro-zone-november-2021.html), [Politico.eu](https://www.politico.eu/article/ecb-chief-declines-to-say-if-inflation-will-hit-target-next-year/), [ECB](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/macroeconomic_and_sectoral/hicp/html/index.en.html)). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2022 and the outcome determined using the annual rate of change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), data used to measure consumer price inflation in the eurozone, as first reported by Eurostat for \"Euro area - 19 countries (from 2015)\" ([Eurostat](https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=prc_hicp_manr&lang=en)). As of the launch of this question, the annual rate of change for October 2021 (2021M10) was 4.1%.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 1.0%",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1.0% and 1.9%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 1.9% but less than 3.0%",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 3.0% and 3.9%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 3.9% but less than 5.0%",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "5.0% or more",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:02:13.137Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 210,
- "numforecasters": 93,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.0%, Between 1.0% and 1.9%, inclusive, More than 1.9% but less than 3.0%, Between 3.0% and 3.9%, inclusive, More than 3.9% but less than 5.0%, 5.0% or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Hop Protocol airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-hop-protocol-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Hop Protocol will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.2833409394507569172761383916913952",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.7166590605492430827238616083086048",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.517Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "83",
- "liquidity": "601.73",
- "tradevolume": "2481.32",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x3CCB5D7fD64F227a70e162197ED2FC090615848f"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Stephen Wolfram or his co-authors, Jonathan Gorard and Max Piskunov, receive the Nobel prize in physics before the end of 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4224/will-stephen-wolfram-or-his-co-authors-jonathan-gorard-and-max-piskunov-receive-the-nobel-prize-in-physics-before-the-end-of-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the Wolfram Physics Project, Stephen Wolfram and co-authors [have proposed](https://writings.stephenwolfram.com/2020/04/finally-we-may-have-a-path-to-the-fundamental-theory-of-physics-and-its-beautiful/) a class of models to represent fundamental physics. \nWill Stephen Wolfram (and/or his co-authors) receive a Nobel prize in physics for this work before the end of 2035?\nThis question resolves positively if Stephen Wolfram, or Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov win the nobel prize in physics before the end of 2035. For a positive resolution, the Nobel Prize committee must refer to work published by any of these individuals that is directly related to the 2020 Wolfram Physics Project. By \"related to the 2020 Wolfram Physics Project\", we mean that the work must build on a similar approach or set of insights as those explored in the Wolfram Physics Project, as judged by Metaculus admin.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:01:56.761Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 204,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-04-20T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-04-20T11:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Massachusetts gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7257/Who-will-win-the-2022-Massachusetts-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Massachusetts gubernatorial election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Maura Healey",
- "probability": 0.7941176470588234,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Geoff Diehl",
- "probability": 0.06862745098039215,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sonia Chang-Díaz",
- "probability": 0.05882352941176469,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Charlie Baker",
- "probability": 0.009803921568627449,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Karyn Polito",
- "probability": 0.009803921568627449,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Benjamin Downing",
- "probability": 0.009803921568627449,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ayanna Pressley",
- "probability": 0.009803921568627449,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Danielle Allen",
- "probability": 0.009803921568627449,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joe Kennedy III",
- "probability": 0.009803921568627449,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jay Gonzalez",
- "probability": 0.009803921568627449,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marty Walsh",
- "probability": 0.009803921568627449,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:58:43.937Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 272991
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Maura Healey, Geoff Diehl, Sonia Chang-Díaz, Charlie Baker, Karyn Polito, Benjamin Downing, Ayanna Pressley, Danielle Allen, Joe Kennedy III, Jay Gonzalez, Marty Walsh"
- },
- {
- "title": "Are we on path for IPCC's 'middle-of-the-road' scenario for the deployment of renewables?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3665/are-we-on-path-for-ipccs-middle-of-the-road-scenario-for-the-deployment-of-renewables/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its third pathway (P3) is the 'middle-of-the-road' scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, we will continue emitting greenhouse gasses (GHGs) until the end of the century, and we need to employ some carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS), to achieve a concentration of GHG consistent with the 1.5°C target. According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):\nP3: A middle-of-the-road scenario in which societal as well as technological development follows historical patterns. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved by changing the way in which energy and products are produced, and to a lesser degree by reductions in demand.\nAccording to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P3 is consistent with a share of 48% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.\nIn 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). \nWill renewable energy contribute between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positively if renewable energy contributes between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.66,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:54:49.241Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-16T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Russia further invades Ukraine by EOM January 2022",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A259",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-01-18T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6306/2024-us-popular-vote-3rd-party-at-least-10/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Although [large numbers of Americans consistently say they want a third party](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx), electoral performance of parties other than the Democratic and Republican parties has historically been poor. For example, no non-Democrat non-Republican has won a presidential election since [1848](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1848_United_States_presidential_election).\nThe most recent time a non-Democrat non-Republican received over 10% of the national popular vote was 1992, with Perot-Stockdale winning 19%. (Perot-Choate came close in 1996, with 8%.)\nWill a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?\nThis prediction resolves positive if any single candidate not running for the Democratic or Republican party receives 5% or more of the national popular vote, and negative if one does not.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:39:37.398Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 126,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-04T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T16:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will at least one HEMP attack occur by 2024, if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8542/at-least-one-hemp-attack-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to the [US EMP Commission (2004)](http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf):\n\"Several potential adversaries have or can acquire the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP). A determined adversary can achieve an EMP attack capability without having a high level of sophistication. EMP is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences. EMP will cover the wide geographic region within line of sight to the nuclear weapon.\"\nOther questions in this tournament ask [how likely a HEMP attack is by 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7412/hemp-attack-before-2024/); how many such attacks would occur, if any do; and whether, if one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, they'd cause a total of >10 million fatalities. This question asks how likely a HEMP attack is if there's any offensive nuclear detonation, to get a clearer sense of how correlated the two types of risks are. For further context on this question, see [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1I_4XTKOytSIm4q--BH3cK8R7Yg7K-KbydKtPLTJJ90I/edit#heading=h.4afvzod1qk1t) and [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ws5i4_axkPLO95oIhVvE2_5b2xGcR-ktD9gRHUDjX_Y/edit).\nWill at least one HEMP attack occur by 2024, if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs by 2024?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no offensive nuclear detonation by 2024. It resolves positively if there is both a HEMP attack and an offensive nuclear detonation (not counting the HEMP attack) by 2024. This requires that, by 31 January 2024, at least three credible sources report each of those events having occurred between this question opening and the end of 2023. What order these events occur in and how close together in time they occur will not be taken into account.\nFor this question, a [HEMP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse) is defined as either: 1) a >1 kiloton explosion at greater than 30 kilometer altitude (including detonation in space), or 2) a non-nuclear device which produces similar or larger EMP field levels over similar or larger areas compared to a HEMP detonation\nHEMPs for testing purposes will not count towards a positive resolution. For ease of question resolution, even a test HEMP which causes significant damage would not count towards positive resolution. Test HEMPs are defined as HEMPs which are claimed as being a test by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. \nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage). In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:59:00.868Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will our current peace be shorter than the Pax Romana?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/610/will-our-current-peace-be-shorter-than-the-pax-romana/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Pax Romana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Romana) was a period of relative peace, which lasted for approximately 206 years from 27 BC to AD 180. The peace was not absolute, though, and the historian Walter Goffart wrote, \"The volume of the Cambridge Ancient History for the years A.D. 70–192 is called 'The Imperial Peace', but peace is not what one finds in its pages\".\nSimilarly, there have been wars in the post-ww2 era, despite the era being relatively peaceful. The post-WW2 peace has also lasted for only about 72 years as of the writing of this question, making it only about 35% as long as the Pax Romana. In order to last as long as the Pax Romana, our peace would have to endure until 2151.\nThere are many things threatening peace, from seemingly perpetual unrest in the middle-east to an increasingly tense situation on the Korean peninsula. Yet, a major global conflict in the near future seems unlikely.\nWhen predicting whether a major global conflict will occur within a longer timeframe, effects such as climate change and rising inequality (potentially due to AI?) might play a bigger role and the probability of conflict becomes more uncertain.\nIt is asked: Will a world war begin before January 1st 2151?\nWe define a world war as a war that either,\n---involves at least 50% of the world's countries, representing at least 50% of the world's population, with countries on at least 4 different continents participating and that kills at least 0.5% of the global population at the beginning of the war within 10 years. OR \n---involves at least 10% of the world's countries, representing at least 25% of the world's population, with countries on at least 3 different continents participating and that kills at least 1% of the global population at the beginning of the war within 10 years. \nThe beginning time of the hypothetical war will be defined as the time when for the first time at least 5% of the world's nations were involved in the war or countries representing at least 5% of the world's population were involved in the war.\nShould there be countries that have not declared war, but for whom the sum of the fatalities they have suffered and those they have inflicted on others exceeds 10000 within the first 10 years of the war, those countries should be counted as having participated in the war.\nGiven the extremely long timeframe of the question and that the likelihood of getting reliable data on fatality counts might be slim (use a geometric mean if given several estimates), I think it is unwise to predict on this question with points in mind.\nStill, I urge people to predict in good faith. The question resolution date has been set to January 1st 2161, to provide for 10 years after January 1st 2151.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:14:25.202Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 432,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-12-29T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2161-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5313/planet-nine-discovery-by-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Note: question text is copied directly from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/). This version has an extended resolution date.\nIn early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine.\n[Batygin and Brown's paper](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.\n[Follow-up papers](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AJ....151...22B/citations) by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. In the years since the announcement of the hypothesis, Planet Nine has been invoked as an [explanation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.04992) for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been argued that it [can account for curious orbital commensurabilities](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...91M/abstract) among the most distant members of the Kuiper Belt, and it has been [hypothesized that it can explain](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...27G/abstract) the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.\nThe planet, however, remains to be found.\nIf it does exist, its most likely sky location is probably in one of the two regions of the sky where the Galactic Plane intersects the ecliptic. Confusion from the myriad stars of the Milky Way's disk renders systematic searches difficult in these areas. Nonetheless, new techniques, such as the [use of data](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.06383) from NASA's TESS Mission may potentially provide a breakthrough. Additionally, Batygin and co-authors have published [an update](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10103) to their original paper that contains a significant amount of new analysis and remains optimistic regarding the prospects for eventual detection.\nWill Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?\nFor this question to resolve positive, the new Solar System planet must be detected by direct optical observation. The planet should have an inferred radius larger than that of Earth, and an orbital period greater than 5,000 years.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:20:53.760Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 124,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-01T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T10:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4922/will-there-be-active-warfare-between-the-united-states-and-china-by-the-end-of-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The current conflicts between the United States and China - including trade, espionage, international politics, propaganda, \"soft power\" and territorial claims - have [been described as a Cold War](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/china-us-war/594793/). \nCould this turn to active warfare (sometimes euphemistically described as \"kinetic conflict\") in the near future? \nSome Australian analysts think so. [Chris Joye writes in the Australian Financial Review](https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/why-the-risk-of-a-major-power-conflict-is-rising-20200709-p55aji): \nWhen I asked Professor Hugh White about this eight years ago, he handicapped war between China and the US at a 10 per cent probability over the so-called forward planning horizon.\nThe tiny minority of foreign policy and security experts who saw this coming at that time now put the likelihood closer to 20 to 30 per cent.\nMy own best guess is that the chance of a low- or high-intensity kinetic conflict of some kind between China and the US is around 25 to 50 per cent. We ain't going to be exporting much up north if that happens.\nOn the other hand, it could be said that China hawks have predicted 10 of the last 0 wars with China. [In 2014, Gerard Henderson](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/opinion/anus-alarmist-hugh-white-gets-it-wrong-each-time-on-uschina-tensions/news-story/31b270768eaae75b38024a322a0898fa) pointed out Hugh White has repeatedly - if equivocally - predicted wars that have not happened, saying we \"may\" face a naval battle in 2005, shouldn't be \"too surprised\" if the USA and Japan go to war with China in 2013 and in 2014 war is \"a possibility we can't rule out\". \nThus we ask, Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if, at some point between now and 31 December 2026, at least two credible news sources (e.g. the Australian Financial Review, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Reuters, Associated Press, etc.) report that the United States and China have exchanged fire, engaged in \"kinetic conflict\", fought a battle, fought a war or otherwise engaged in active warfare (and they are not talking metaphorically/about a \"cold war\").\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:13:47.191Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 243,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-30T13:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1662/will-any-asteroid-or-comet-have-been-mined-in-space-for-commercial-purposes-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A number of commercial ventures have been founded in the 21st century with the goal of [mining various asteroids and comets in the solar system for commercial purposes.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining) \nThere are a number of valuable resources that could in principle be harvested from these objects, including gold, iridium, silver, osmium, palladium, platinum, rhenium, rhodium, ruthenium and tungsten for transport back to Earth; iron, cobalt, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, aluminium, and titanium for space-based construction. Perhaps the most immediately useful resource may be water, which could be converted into hydrogen and oxygen to fuel spacecraft. \nSome identified asteroids are believed to be quite rich in minerals. Indeed, if one were to look up current prices on the London Metal Exchange for these resources and assume (quite wrongly, of course) that the price would hold up in the event that asteroid mining became practical and economical, there are many [individual asteroids whose value far exceeds 100 trillion US dollars.](http://www.asterank.com/) As of September 2016, there were 711 known asteroids with a computed value exceeding US$100 trillion. \nSome nations are beginning to promulgate legal regimes for extraterrestrial resource extraction. For example, the United States \"SPACE Act of 2015,\" facilitating private development of space resources consistent with US international treaty obligations, passed the US House of Representatives in July 2015. In November 2015 it passed the United States Senate.\nOn 25 November, US President Barack Obama signed the H.R.2262 – U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act into law. The law recognizes the right of U.S. citizens to own space resources they obtain and encourages the commercial exploration and utilization of resources from asteroids. \nAccording to the article § 51303 of the law: \"A United States citizen engaged in commercial recovery of an asteroid resource or a space resource under this chapter shall be entitled to any asteroid resource or space resource obtained, including to possess, own, transport, use, and sell the asteroid resource or space resource obtained in accordance with applicable law, including the international obligations of the United States.\" \nIn February 2016, the Government of Luxembourg announced that it would attempt to \"jump-start an industrial sector to mine asteroid resources in space\" by, among other things, creating a \"legal framework\" and regulatory incentives for companies involved in the industry. By June 2016, it announced that it would \"invest more than US$200 million in research, technology demonstration, and in the direct purchase of equity in companies relocating to Luxembourg.\" In 2017, it became the \"first European country to pass a law conferring to companies the ownership of any resources they extract from space\", and remained active in advancing space resource public policy in 2018.\n[Some](https://www.rt.com/business/424800-first-trillionaire-space-miner/) [have suggested](https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/01/30/1314279/0/en/Physicist-Says-Asteroid-Mining-Ventures-Will-Spawn-First-Trillionaire.html) [that the first trillionaire(s) will be created by the space mining industry.](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5691677/Want-trillionaire-asteroids.html)\nThis question asks: Before January 1 2030, will at least 100kg of resources be harvested primarily for commercial purposes from any asteroid or comet while it is in space?\nResolves positively in the event that a press release is issued by any corporation or other group claiming success in this endeavour, or when credible media reports indictate it has occurred. \nResources mined from asteroids or comets after impact with Earth or any other planetary-mass body do not count for purposes of this question. 'Commercial purposes' includes (inter alia) exclusive use by the mining company or sale on commercial terms (e.g. not a nominal $1 payment) to any third party (for any purpose, including scientific analysis), but excludes purely scientific missions launched by public or private bodies with the sole goal of performing scientific analysis on material samples.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:29:59.395Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 277,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Rs win NV 2022 Senate",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A161",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.\n[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.\n[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20%28NHANES%29%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.\nAs of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.\nThis question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:09:35.415Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-04T20:41:03.669000Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/568/catalonia-independence-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The 1st of October 2017 saw a contentious (and according to the Spanish government, illegal) referendum on Catalan independence.\n[News reports](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/02/catalan-government-emergency-meeting-spain-independence) suggest that with a 43% turnout around 90% of ballots went for independence, amid widespread police crackdowns on voting, and confiscations of ballot boxes.\nWith talk of a unilateral declaration of independence in the air, the political future of Catalonia is unclear.\nThis question asks: \nBy 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state? \nQuestion resolves positive if Catalonia becomes an independent state by the 1st of October 2022.\nResolution can be determined by de facto control over a large majority of the area currently making up the autonomous region of Catalonia within Spain, determined by, for example, the issuing of passports, control over borders, independent police and military.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:12:49.036Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 408,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-10-05T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-09-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-10-02T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Biden is 2024 POTUS",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A249",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.59,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.41000000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-10-17T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8638/non-nuclear-armed-state-and-a-nuc-detonation/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Which countries would be targeted in a nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how best to reduce that risk.\nSee also [Collection of questions on nuclear targeting](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8604/collection-of-questions-on-nuclear-targeting/).\nAt least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?\nCurrently, [there are 9 nuclear-armed states](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/): Russia, the US, China, France, the UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea.\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from an offensive nuclear detonation before 2030. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nIf a state that isn't currently nuclear-armed becomes nuclear-armed before 2030, a fatality in that state while it is nuclear-armed can count towards positive resolution of this question.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions), but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion).\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nSee also similar questions regarding the chance of a fatality in India, Israel, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, and the US.\n--- \n[India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8367/fatality-in-india-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Israel](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8637/fatality-in-israel-from-a-nuclear-detonation/)\n--- \n[Pakistan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8368/fatality-in-pakistan-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[North Korea](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8369/fatality-in-n-korea-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Russia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8365/fatality-in-russia-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8364/fatality-in-china-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least one fatality in the US from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2050, if an offensive detonation occurs anywhere?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7405/us-fatality-from-nuclear-weapon-detonation/)\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:04:59.369Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will US life expectancy at birth for both sexes fall below 75 years before 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4616/will-us-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-fall-below-75-years-before-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to the United Nations Development Program's [2019 Human Development Index](http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/2019-human-development-index-ranking), the average life expectancy at birth in the US (both sexes, average) is 78.9 years.\n[Life expectancy in the US has increased by just under a decade since 1950, when it was 68.14 years.](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/life-expectancy) However, in the last few years, [life expectancy has actually declined slightly in the US.](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/11/us-life-expectancy-keeps-falling/576664/) Contributing factors include obesity and related diseases, opioid abuse, and suicides. \nThis question asks: Before January 1 2040, will US life expectancy at birth (average for both sexes) fall below 75 years, according to the CDC, World Health Organization, or the United Nations?\nOnly one of these organizations need credibly report that the US life expectancy has fallen below 75 for a positive resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:07:34.038Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 168,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-03T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be Facebook's end-of-day market capitalization on 31 May 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2152-what-will-be-facebook-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-31-may-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Facebook has come under renewed scrutiny with the leak of thousands of internal corporate documents ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/10/04/1042921981/facebook-whistleblower-renewing-scrutiny-of-social-media-giant)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day \"Market Cap\" figure as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/FB)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $600 billion",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $600 billion and $850 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $850 billion but less than $1.10 trillion",
- "probability": 0.32,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $1.10 trillion and $1.35 trillion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $1.35 trillion",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:04:05.763Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 555,
- "numforecasters": 130,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $600 billion, Between $600 billion and $850 billion, inclusive, More than $850 billion but less than $1.10 trillion, Between $1.10 trillion and $1.35 trillion, inclusive, More than $1.35 trillion"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Valve release a game before 2030 with 3 in the Title?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3812/will-valve-release-a-game-before-2030-with-3-in-the-title/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The video game company valve has multiple franchises all ending with their number 2 game and it is well known joke in the gaming community that valve will never create a game with the number 3 in the title.\nFranchises that already are at the number 2: \"Half Life 2\", \"Portal 2\", \"Left 4 Dead 2\", \"Team Fortress 2\" and \"Dota 2\".\nThis question resolves positive if Valve releases before 2030-01-01 a game made by Valve that has \"3\" (or anything else that means 3) in its title. It resolves negative otherwise, including if Valve ceases operating.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:57:13.086Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 200,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-01T09:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. See this related question for a shorter timeframe: [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/)\nWill the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?\nThis resolves positively if and only if all of the following are met before 2031:\n---The [Insurrection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is invoked. \n---While the Insurrection Act is invoked, there are at least 500 deaths in a 6 month period as a result of armed conflicts between US residents and a branch of the US military, national guard, or in conflicts between/among such branches. \n---All of these deaths occur in any US state (including DC). \nThis will retroactively close 14 days prior to the 500th death (as closely as metaculus admins can determine). Credible sources will be used to determine the total number of deaths and when and where they occurred.\nAny conflicts between the US military and the armed forces of another country will be excluded from consideration in this question. Conflicts between the US military and US residents, possibly supported by other nations with weapons or resources, will be included.\nConflicts between civilians and local police will not be included, unless there are active armed forces in the region providing mutual support.\nDeaths are calculated among all of the states (and Washington, DC) in the United States. New states which are admitted shall be included, states which secede or are removed, will not be included. Suicides do not count towards the death count. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:37:05.186Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 503,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-19T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-01-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T06:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Trump is on the ballot for President in the Republican primary in 2023/2024 ",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A70",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-01-14T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Emirates airline revenues for FY 2021-22 reach at least 75% of FY 2019-20 revenues, or AED 68,979 million?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2132-will-emirates-airline-revenues-for-fy-2021-22-reach-at-least-75-of-fy-2019-20-revenues-or-aed-68-979-million",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The COVID-19 pandemic hit airlines particularly hard, with Emirates airline's total revenue for the fiscal/financial year (FY) 2020-21 declining 66% to AED 30.9 billion, or US$ 8.4 billion ([Emirates](https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/emirates-group-announces-2020-21-results/), [Emirates - 2021 Annual Report](https://cdn.ek.aero/downloads/ek/pdfs/report/annual_report_2021.pdf)). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2022 and the outcome determined using data reported in Emirates Group's (the airline's parent company) annual report for FY 2021-22, expected in the summer of 2022 ([Emirates Group](https://www.theemiratesgroup.com/)). Emirate Group's FY 2021-22 runs from 1 April 2021 to 31 March 2022. For FY 2019-20, Emirates airline reported revenue of AED 91,972 million ([Emirates - 2021 Annual Report](https://cdn.ek.aero/downloads/ek/pdfs/report/annual_report_2021.pdf), see \"Revenue and other operating income\" on page 188).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:04:37.912Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 185,
- "numforecasters": 51,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the US office vacancy rate for the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Colliers?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2127-what-will-be-the-us-office-vacancy-rate-for-the-fourth-quarter-of-2022-according-to-colliers",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Office vacancy rates increased sharply during 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and new work-from-home dynamics ([Flatland KC](https://www.flatlandkc.org/news-issues/future-of-work-the-future-of-workplaces/), [NY Business Journal](https://www.bizjournals.com/newyork/news/2021/09/07/columbia-property-trust-acquired.html), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-commercial-real-estate)). The outcome will be determined using the US office vacancy rate as reported in the Colliers Q4 2022 Office Market Outlook report, expected in February 2023 ([Colliers](https://www.colliers.com/en/countries/united-states/commercial-real-estate-research)). The rate for Q4 2019, before the pandemic, was 11.4%; the rate for Q2 2021, at question launch, was 14.7% ([Colliers - Q4 2019](https://www.colliers.com/en/research/2019-q4-us-office-market-outlook-report), [Colliers - Q2 2021](https://www.colliers.com/en/research/office-market-outlook-q2-2021)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Lower than 12.5%",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 12.5% and 14.0%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher than 14.0% but lower than 15.5%",
- "probability": 0.46,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 15.5% and 17.0%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher than 17.0%",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:04:45.784Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 119,
- "numforecasters": 40,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 12.5%, Between 12.5% and 14.0%, inclusive, Higher than 14.0% but lower than 15.5%, Between 15.5% and 17.0%, inclusive, Higher than 17.0%"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many seats will the Socialist Party win in the 2022 Portuguese election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7587/How-many-seats-will-the-Socialist-Party-win-in-the-2022-Portuguese-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by Partido Socialista, also known as the Socialist Party, in the next election to the Portuguese Assembly of the Republic. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "93 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "94 to 97",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "98 to 101",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "102 to 105",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "106 to 109",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "110 to 113",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "114 to 117",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "118 to 121",
- "probability": 0.9166666666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "122 to 125",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "126 or more",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:03:30.981Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 89164
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "93 or fewer, 94 to 97, 98 to 101, 102 to 105, 106 to 109, 110 to 113, 114 to 117, 118 to 121, 122 to 125, 126 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8613/non-state-actor-acquires-a-nuke-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament related to nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nMuch of the concern around nuclear weapons is centered on large-scale nuclear war resulting in [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) and/or the [deaths of a large percentage of the world's population](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/). But nuclear proliferation and the increasing ease of developing nuclear weapons may also increase the risk of smaller conflicts and catastrophes, which could be important in themselves and could perhaps trigger larger-scale conflicts.\nTo date, there is no known incident of a non-state actor having control of a nuclear weapon, but there have been numerous close calls. In 1994, [the US successfully extracted 600kg of weapons-grade uranium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Sapphire) from an unsecured warehouse in Kazakhstan, and the IEAE reports [frequent incidents](https://www-ns.iaea.org/downloads/security/itdb-fact-sheet.pdf) involving theft or unauthorized posession of weapons material. Al-Qaeda and ISIS are notable groups who have [interest or intent in acquiring nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_terrorism#Militant_groups)\nWill a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if, between this question opening and 2030-01-01, an individual or group who is not in a state's [nuclear chain of command](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_command_and_control) has possession of a nuclear weapon that was originally developed by a state and is in deployable condition at the time the state acquires it (though it need not be used, detonated, or set on alert). This may occur (for example) by sales, theft, or a state inadvertently losing control of a weapon. This will not include cases where a non-state actor independently develops a weapon (such scenarios are addressed in a [separate question](LINK)). \nA non-state actor obtaining [highly-enriched uranium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enriched_uranium#Highly_enriched_uranium_%28HEU%29) or other weapons material is not sufficient to resolve this question positively. Additionally, [dirty bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_bomb) (conventional weapons which use radioactive material to spread fallout) do not qualify for this question; the weapon must be a [nuclear weapon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) in the sense of having nuclear fission or fusion as its primary energy source.\nThis question will resolve on the basis of official statements by governments, government intelligence authorities, or non-governmental nuclear intelligence organizations. In the case of significant disagreement or ambiguity on the points above, resolution may be delayed until 2035-01-01 for clarification, or be resolved ambiguous at the discretion of Metaculus admins.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:03:05.782Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Supreme Court find Harvard's admissions unlawful in SFFA vs. Harvard?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9572/scotus-rules-harvards-admissions-unlawful/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[Will the Supreme Court end racial preferences in university admissions in SFFA vs. Harvard before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9573/scotus-ends-racial-preferences-in-admissions/) \n[Students for Fair Admissions (SFFA)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Students_for_Fair_Admissions) is suing Harvard, among other universities, for its race-conscious admissions policies, and has called for the abolition of racial preferences in college admissions. On January 24, 2022, the Supreme Court [granted certiorari](https://www.supremecourt.gov/orders/courtorders/012422zor_m6io.pdf) to SFFA's suits against Harvard and the University of North Carolina, which have been merged into a single case.\nWill the Supreme Court find Harvard's admissions unlawful in SFFA vs. Harvard before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2030, the US Supreme Court rules in [SFFA v. Harvard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Students_for_Fair_Admissions_v._President_and_Fellows_of_Harvard_College) that Harvard's admissions system is unlawful. This includes a ruling that preserves the legality of race-conscious admissions in some form but strikes down Harvard's current implementation. If the Supreme Court remands the case to a lower court, this question resolves positively if the final outcome of this case, or a successor case comprised of the merger of this case and others, finds Harvard's admissions unlawful, and litigation for this case ends before 2030. Otherwise, this question will resolve negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:45:58.404Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6889/serena-williams-wins-grand-slam/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Serena Williams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serena_Williams) is widely considered the greatest Tennis player of all time. She has won 23 Grand Slams in her career. 1 short of Margaret Court's record.\nHowever, she is starting to get older turning 40 in 2021 and she's slipped away from the #1 ranking. She last won a slam in 2017, although she's reached 4 slam finals since then.\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Last year, each of you said you expected Serena to win another major. Do you want to change your answer?\". The answer given was \"Probably not\" (ie probably she doesn't win another one).\nWill Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?\nThis question resolves positive if Serena Williams wins a grand slam after 2021-04-01.\nThis question resolve negative if Serena Williams stops playing Tennis before winning another grand slam.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:56:02.317Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 68,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-07T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Google implement a feature to explain targeted Google Ads before 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8947/google-uses-explainable-ads-by-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Explainable AI (xAI) methods have gained popularity as a means of increasing user trust in AI systems. There are numerous xAI methods; a non-exhaustive survey is provided by [Christopher Molnar](https://christophm.github.io/interpretable-ml-book/). Facebook has implemented (as of December 2021) a form of explanation for targeted ads (by clicking “Why am I seeing this ad?”). Google Search released beta feature in July 2021 which [explains features of search results](https://blog.google/products/search/learn-more-and-get-more-from-search/) which make them relevant to the user's search query.\nWill Google implement a feature to explain targeted Google Ads before 2026?\nThis question will resolve positively if Google implements an explanation feature for ads in their Google Ads platform before January 1, 2026. Google must have implemented this feature across the platform for all users, not only in certain formats (such as only in Google Search) or as an A/B test. Google announcements or credible media reports may suffice as a resolution source.\n\"Explanations\" will be considered any explanation for advertisement selection which indicates decisive charactaristics of the advertiser or of the user. It is not necessary for this explation to be comprehensive (Google may withhold some key information in decision-making), nor must the explanation be \"true\" (regarding how the algorithm actually makes decisions), as either are in principle not verifiable.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:20:33.473Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "See also:\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[Nuclear GC to cause (near) extinction](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n--- \n[Would we recover if population falls <400m?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8105/would-we-recover-if-population-falls-400m/)\n--- \n[Will humans go extinct by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/)\n--- \n[Extinction if population falls <400 million?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8103/extinction-if-population-falls-400-million/)\nFor the purposes of this question, \"humans\" are members of a species most of whose members could at some point in their lives reproduce with typical 2021 humans without medical assistance (even if young or old members of the species could not do so or a minority of members of the species could never do so). In scenarios where this question would resolve positively given that definition, but there remain beings that at least one 2021 Metaculus moderator would consider \"human\" (possible examples: some human-like digital minds; some possible types of genetically altered humans), this question will instead resolve ambiguously. This is because it is debatable whether such scenarios should count as \"extinction\".\nAs stated on [another question about extinction](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/):\n\"N.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.\"\nIf there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?\nThis question resolves positively if the human population falls to zero within 50 years of the final detonation as part of the first nuclear conflict (between now and 2100-01-01) which involves >1000 offensive nuclear detonations. For simplicity, we will consider detonations to be part of the same nuclear conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days of another detonation (regardless of who detonates the weapons, who their targets are, what their motivations are, etc.).\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations by 2100-01-01.\nThis question can resolve positively even if the nuclear conflict wasn't the sole cause, a major cause, or even a contributing factor in the eventual extinction event. (This is because it would be useful for this question to capture instances in which the nuclear conflict merely contributed to rather than solely or directly causing extinction, but it seems hard to capture that neatly except via this more expansive resolution criteria.) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:53:12.621Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2061-04-14T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What caused the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight 370?",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/what-caused-the-disappearance-of-malaysia-airlines-flight-370",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 disappeared on March 8, 2014, seemingly without a trace. Investigators have struggled to discover what caused the plane to disappear as well as where it ended up. With only sparse evidence available, a probabilistic analysis is needed.\nFlight MH370 left Kuala Lumpur at approximately 0:41 local Malaysian time (16:41 [UTC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordinated_Universal_Time)), heading towards Beijing. It stopped transmitting its location and lost contact with civilian radar around 1:21, northeast of Kuala Lumpur. At about the same time, a Malaysian military radar detected a plane heading west from the location of flight MH370. That plane was last seen over the Andaman sea at 2:22.\n![image] (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3c/MH370_initial_search_Southeast_Asia.svg/440px-MH370_initial_search_Southeast_Asia.svg.png)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 while committing suicide.",
- "probability": 0.9303855144518759,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The co-pilot, Fariq Abdul Hamid, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 while committing suicide.",
- "probability": 0.040451544106603274,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 had an emergency (electrical, weather-related, or another event) that disrupted the flight but allowed it to continue flying for many hours.",
- "probability": 0.021068512555522584,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Passengers hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 with the intent of landing the plane.",
- "probability": 0.004577391856729619,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 crashed soon after takeoff in the South China Sea (due to a fire, electrical problems, turbulence, a broken wing tip, or being shot down).",
- "probability": 0.00028091350074030126,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 with the intent of landing the plane.",
- "probability": 0.003236123528528264,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:09:13.885Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 while committing suicide., The co-pilot, Fariq Abdul Hamid, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 while committing suicide., Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 had an emergency (electrical, weather-related, or another event) that disrupted the flight but allowed it to continue flying for many hours., Passengers hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 with the intent of landing the plane., Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 crashed soon after takeoff in the South China Sea (due to a fire, electrical problems, turbulence, a broken wing tip, or being shot down)., The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 with the intent of landing the plane."
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a China-India war by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8363/china-india-war-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For the purposes of this question, a China-India war is defined as the China and India collectively suffering [at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the China and an ally of India or between India and an ally of the China will not count towards positive resolution. If this does not occur by 2035-01-01, this question will resolve negatively.\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\nSee also\n--- \n[Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7451/deadly-clash-between-china-and-india/)\n--- \n[Will there be a US-China war by 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8362/us-china-war-by-2035/)\nWill there be a China-India war by 2035?\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:50:52.323Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-06-30T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8135/2-states-increase-nuclear-arsenals-by-25/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nCurrently, nine states possess nuclear weapons. Below is a list of the estimated number of nuclear warheads in each if those states as of May 2021 (according to [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/)). \n---Russia: 6,257 nuclear warheads \n---US: 5,550 nuclear warheads \n---China: 350 nuclear warheads \n---France: 290 nuclear warheads \n---UK: 225 nuclear warheads \n---Pakistan: 165 nuclear warheads \n---India: 160 nuclear warheads \n---Israel: 90 nuclear warheads \n---North Korea: sufficient fissile materials for 45 nuclear warheads (\"The[ir] number of assembled warheads is unknown, but lower\") \nWill at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the FAS website shows, at any time between 2021-10-01 and 2023-12-31, that two or more states each have arsenals 25% higher than the estimates given above (i.e., 25% higher than FAS's estimates from May 2021). This includes deployed, reserve/nondeployed, and retired (but still intact) warheads, and both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. If a state that had no nuclear weapons when this question opened gains an arsenal of at least one assembled nuclear weapon, that would be counted as a state increasing its stockpile size by at least 25%.\nIn the case of North Korea, the \"size of their nuclear stockpile\" will refer to the number of warheads that could be assembled using the fissile material they've produced, whether the warheads have been assembled or not.\nIf FAS publish no estimates during the whole of 2023, then this question will resolve ambiguously. \nNo attempt will be made to distinguish actual increases in arsenal sizes from increases in estimates due to FAS changing their estimation methods or learning new information about what was already true in May 2021. This is mostly for simplicity, but also partly because some implications are the same whether (a) actual increases occur or (b) our current information is an underestimate. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:40:11.439Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 109,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-20T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2023, will the US Senate independently expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2248-before-1-january-2023-will-the-us-senate-independently-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "After using a legislative workaround to bypass the 60-vote requirement for an increase in the debt ceiling, Democrats are struggling to find other ways to bypass the filibuster ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/09/politics/republicans-broke-debt-ceiling-filibuster/index.html), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/590099-democrats-ponder-plan-b-strategy-to-circumvent-voting-rights-filibuster)). A change requiring action outside of the Senate (e.g., congressional legislation) would not count (e.g., [Senate Bill 610](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/610)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:00:58.734Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 124,
- "numforecasters": 86,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Pandemic series: a new Spanish Flu?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/242/pandemic-series-a-new-spanish-flu/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The worst pandemic in modern times, killing up to 50 million people worldwide from 1918-1919, was the so-called \"Spanish Flu.\" Emerging today, such a virus could spread very rapidly worldwide relative to 1918; on the other hand we presently have countermeasures (including experience in creating and manufacturing flu vaccines) that did not exist then. So it is unclear how these countervailing effects would interact.\nAlso unclear is the frequency of emergence of novel flu strains with high human pathology. Large-scale flu outbreaks since 1918 have not had nearly as high a death toll, but the data prior to 1918 is less clear (see [this paper](http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2720801/) for an accounting) and the world was far less connected in those times.\nSo here we assess the probability of a re-do of the the Spanish Flu: a natural flu that kills tens of millions worldwide in a single year, sometime in the coming two decades. We can all hope this number is small — but how small?\nWill there be more than 50M deaths worldwide in a single 1-year period due to an influenza strain of natural origin by 2035? \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:08:33.698Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 261,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-06-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Rs win OH 2022 Senate",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A155",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.050000000000000044,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Alabama Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7182/Who-will-win-the-2022-Alabama-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Alabama Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Mo Brooks",
- "probability": 0.38888888888888884,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Katie Britt",
- "probability": 0.3796296296296296,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Durant",
- "probability": 0.17592592592592593,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lynda Blanchard",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Richard Shelby",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Merrill",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Roy Moore",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jeff Sessions",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jessica Taylor",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:57:26.053Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 147000
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Mo Brooks, Katie Britt, Mike Durant, Lynda Blanchard, Richard Shelby, John Merrill, Roy Moore, Jeff Sessions, Jessica Taylor"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be elected governor of Pennsylvania in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2225-who-will-be-elected-governor-of-pennsylvania-in-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "There are 20 Republican-held and 16 Democratic-held state gubernatorial seats up for election in 2022 ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Gubernatorial_elections,_2022), [270 To Win](https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "The Democratic Party candidate",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The Republican Party candidate",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Someone else",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:01:53.286Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 117,
- "numforecasters": 78,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "The Democratic Party candidate, The Republican Party candidate, Someone else"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be another case of smallpox by the end of 2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2823/will-there-be-another-case-of-smallpox-by-the-end-of-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The last two cases of smallpox in the world happened [in 1978](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_smallpox_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom), following the accidental exposure of Janet Parker to smallpox grown in a research laboratory below her workplace. After this, smallpox was declared eradicated, and there have been no cases since.\nHowever, the smallpox virus still exists; the US and Russia [maintain stocks of smallpox virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_virus_retention_debate) for research purposes in the World Health Organization approved facilities at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, United States, as well as the State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology in Koltsovo, Russia.\nThese samples may not be needed, either; in 2017, Noyce et al. showed that it was possible to [contruct an infectious horsepox virus from chemically synthesised DNA fragments](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5774680/) in a small lab at a cost of about $100,000, and it may be possible to do the same for smallpox. \nBy the end of 2029, will there have been a confirmed case of infection of a human by smallpox?\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:36:46.682Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 165,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))?\nWill at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?\nThe question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:42:59.608Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 406,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government. \nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:53:25.067Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 338,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-25T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-emulated-before-2200/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Developing resuscitated technology is perhaps the most integral part of making cryonics viable, but its feasability is highly debated and subject to speculation.\nTo pin the probability of the development of such technology down, this question asks:\nWill any person that has been in cryopreservation for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before the 1st of January 2200?\nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person.\nMoreover, an emulated person is a human brain emulated on a computer, with the emulation being faithful to the original brain. Further details on what counts as a successful whole brain emulation for our purposes may be found in the [resolution conditions for this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/).\nRelated question: [“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:45:18.209Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 93,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2199-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:55:07.946Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 259321
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a very large-scale power outage in continental Europe synchronous grid (> 10 m people affected for more than > 1 hour in several countries) before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6694/continental-europe-blackout-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Continental European synchronous area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synchronous_grid_of_Continental_Europe) is the largest interconnected power grid in the world, with hundreds of millions of customers. Transmission system operators who operate it are members in a Continental Europe regional group in the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity, [ENTSO-E](https://www.entsoe.eu/about/inside-entsoe/objectives/) [1]. ENTSO-E also includes TSOs operating other related synchronous areas, but they are not covered by this question.\nOn January 8, 2021, ENTSO-E reported a system split in Continental Area, which was later classified as an [extensive incident](https://www.entsoe.eu/news/2021/02/26/acer-and-entso-e-investigate-the-8-january-electricity-system-separation/). It was reported as a close call to a \"massive blackout\" in Europe by some ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-27/green-shift-brings-blackout-risk-to-world-s-biggest-power-grid)).\nPrevious time there was a blackout of massive scale in Europe was the [2006 European blackout](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_European_blackout), where 15+ m clients lost power for about 2 hours.\nThere also has been notable [wide-scale blackouts in Europe and elsewhere](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_major_power_outages), most recently in [Texas, 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis)\nIn 2003, [there was a blackout affecting 56+m people in Italy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Italy_blackout).\nIn 2015, [there was a large blackout in Turkey](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-power-idUSKBN0MR0S420150331), causing split from CE [pdf](https://eepublicdownloads.entsoe.eu/clean-documents/SOC%20documents/Regional_Groups_Continental_Europe/20150921_Black_Out_Report_v10_w.pdf)\n[1] For more reading, see ENTSO-E [news](https://www.entsoe.eu/news/2021/01/15/system-separation-in-the-continental-europe-synchronous-area-on-8-january-2021-update/), [annual report](https://annualreport2019.entsoe.eu/) and [statistical factsheets](https://www.entsoe.eu/publications/statistics-and-data/#statistical-factsheet)\nWill there be a very large-scale power outage in continental Europe synchronous grid (> 10 m people affected for more than > 1 hour in several countries) before 2023?\nPositive resolution if there is a blackout in more than one country in Continental European Area, affecting total of more than 10 million people for more than 1 hour before 2023-01-01 in relevant timezones.\nAccording to ENTSO-E, [Regional Group](https://www.entsoe.eu/about/system-operations/) for Continental synchronous area currently includes Austria, Albania, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, Denmark (West), France, Republic of North Macedonia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Luxemburg, Montenegro, Nederland, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland and Turkey (observer member).\nAppropriate evidence for resolution criteria having been met include news reports by at least two news agencies such as Reuters, AFP, and AP, preferably supported by later report(s) by ENTSOE [https://www.entsoe.eu/news-events/news/](https://www.entsoe.eu/news-events/news/). To resolve ambiguities about details, reports from news agencies or national broadcasters from affected countries may also be included.\nI did not find any standard definition for massive blackout. Because the context is predisposed to cascading power outages in several countries in the area, this question requires threshold of affecting more than one country, more than 10 million people, and for over 1 hour.\nFor example, the 2003 Italy blackout is a borderline case but would resolve yes, as a part of Geneva canton in Switzerland was affected. Turkey 2015 would not, as it affected people in only one country.\nIf there are radical changes in the ENTSO-E Continental Europe area membership that would otherwise render question ambiguous, one can use for resolution any synchronous grid involving more than 50% of the currently participating countries. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:52:20.389Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-07-15T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-31T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4219/will-large-scale-solar-radiation-management-be-used-to-mitigate-the-effects-of-climate-change-in-the-21st-century/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management),\nSolar radiation management (SRM) proposals are a type of climate engineering which would seek to reflect sunlight and thus reduce global warming. Proposed methods include increasing the planetary albedo, for example using stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Restorative methods have been proposed regarding the protection of natural heat reflectors like sea ice, snow and glaciers with engineering projects. [...]\nSolar radiation management has certain advantages relative to emissions cuts, adaptation, and carbon dioxide removal. Its effect of counteracting climate change would be experienced very rapidly, on the order of months after implementation, whereas the effects of emissions cuts and carbon dioxide removal are delayed because the climate change that they prevent is itself delayed. Some proposed solar radiation management techniques are expected to have very low direct financial costs of implementation, relative to the expected costs of both unabated climate change and aggressive mitigation.\nThere remain risks, however. The most commonly cited risk is that people may be less likely support reducing carbon emissions if they knew temperatures were being adequately managed via other means. Since carbon emissions still cause [ocean acidification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification), among other effects, we may prefer to reduce emissions instead. Another commonly cited reason for not using solar radiation management is that the effects are difficult to predict, though this claim is disputed. There is also a risk of a \"termination shock\" whereupon the discontinuation of solar radiation management, the Earth rapidly resumes its previous climate path, which could be hazardous. \nThere are many proposed types of solar radiation management: [statospheric aerosol injection](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratospheric_aerosol_injection), [marine cloud brightening](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_cloud_brightening), [ocean sulfur cycle enhancement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_fertilization), [literally painting surfaces with white colors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflective_surfaces_%28climate_engineering%29) and [developing space mirrors to deflect solar radiation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_mirror_%28climate_engineering%29). \nWill large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate chage in the 21st century?\nGiven the multitude of approaches, an exact operationalization for large scale solar radiation management is difficult. While I could simply write a long disjunction of the above approaches, I have instead opted for this definition:\nLarge scale solar radiation management is said to be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century if yearly average atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are above 600 parts per million at the start of 2101, and yet the Earth's mean surface temperatures are less than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline (as defined and reported by a reliable institution). This question resolves ambiguously in case there is some significant natural event that reduced mean surface temperatures, such as an unexpected reduction in solar radiation. Metaculus moderates use their discretion when resolving ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:01:51.477Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2066-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Ethereum Merge (EIP-3675) occur by June 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-ethereum-merge-eip-3675-occur-by-june-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if The Merge will occur on the Ethereum mainnet as described in EIP-3675 (or any successor to EIP-3675) by the resolution time, June 1 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, transitioning the Ethereum blockchain to proof-of-stake.\n\nIf the first proof-of-stake block (defined in EIP-3675 as TRANSITION_BLOCK) is produced before the resolution time, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". \nOtherwise, the market will resolve \"No\".\n\nNote that forks to the execution layer and the consensus layer implementing EIP-3675 will not have any impact on the market resolution. Only the actual occurrence of The Merge will be considered.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.222970983068463138310110908276803",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.777029016931536861689889091723197",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.517Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "76",
- "liquidity": "9893.06",
- "tradevolume": "13942.41",
- "stars": 4
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x38A8cACb83DB49f101738F0d85D056d02961DCa9"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the price of Avalanche ($AVAX) be on March 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-price-of-avalanche-avax-be-on-march-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a scalar market on what the price of Avalanche ($AVAX) will be on March 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. The lower bound for this market is $30.00, and the upper bound is $140.00. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the coin’s listed price on its official CoinGecko page https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/avalanche. This market will resolve according to the “C” (aka closing price) listed for the candle titled “Tue 01 March 2022, 12:00:00”, with the “Price” tab selected, in the Eastern Time Zone. Note, this 12:00:00 candle lists the opening price for 11:30:00 AM ET and the closing price for 12:00:00 PM ET. To allow for updates, this market will resolve on the number listed for the referenced candle at exactly 12:25:00 PM ET, on the resolution day. (To see the candlestick close price, click the candlestick icon, and observe the number after the “C:” when you hover over a candlestick for a given time period.) \n\nYou can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short Token price corresponds with the relevant cryptocurrency’s price. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value’s position within the upper and lower bound, if the final value is between these bounds. But if the final outcome value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Token is capped at $1 and $0.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Long",
- "probability": "0.5064478129563812594669344674591363",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Short",
- "probability": "0.4935521870436187405330655325408637",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.518Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "65",
- "liquidity": "1000.00",
- "tradevolume": "1181.16",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x932e0Dd4E6973278D95364A000E0e934Ed5e3E8b"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Long, Short"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will annual inflation in the European Union be 5.5% or more in January?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-annual-inflation-in-the-european-union-be-5p5-or-more-in-january",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on a year-to-year inflation, as measured by the Eurostat (HICP), from January 2021 to January 2022.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union annual inflation in January 2022 is 5.5 percent or more and \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators.\n\nThe next release of HICP inflation rate with full data for January 2022 is scheduled for February 23.\n\n-----------------------------------\n\nNote, that this market is about the inflation for all European Union Member States, not only the Euro zone (states using €).\n\nInflation dashboard for the Euro zone can be viewed here: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/macroeconomic_and_sectoral/hicp/html/index.en.html",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.2156308354454278042806820929918599",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.7843691645545721957193179070081401",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.517Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "33",
- "liquidity": "3059.31",
- "tradevolume": "5247.24",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x6ae1f7ef56f0Dbe796bc5C47EEB21701A033327c"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Biden does get a new nominee on SCOTUS in 2022",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A268",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.050000000000000044,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-01-26T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3863/will-germany-make-use-of-its-emergency-acts-in-light-of-covid-19/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 1968 the First Grand Coalition of the Federal Republic of Germany passed the [German Emergency Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Emergency_Acts), changing, adding or removing more than two dozen paragraphs in their Basic Law (constitution). These would allow the federal government to limit basic rights and liberties as well as freedom of movement, enforce federal law on the states, use of armed forces within Germany to put down insurgencies, and so forth. At the same time, and to assuage worries of critics, the act also introduced the right to resist, which granted the \"right to resist any person seeking to abolish this constitutional order if no other remedy is available.\"\nAll this was necessary due to Germany’s problematic history with emergency acts and enabling acts, in particular during the [Weimar Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weimar_Republic) and [the consequences that followed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_Germany).\nAs such the emergency powers granted by the German Emergency Act were handled very carefully by current and past governments. For instance: Only under need of substantial help in catastrophic circumstances like the 1997 Oder Flood were soldiers ever deployed within German borders.\nFurther complicated is this by the lack of consensus positions and opinions in constitutional law, since these powers were very rarely needed, let alone used.\nYet the German government retains these capabilities, hesitant as it may be, to issue decrees that overrule, countermand and limit states rights and powers if the federal government deems them necessary [in light of catastrophic circumstances](https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/notstandsgesetze-deutschland-101.html).\nAs the saying goes, sometimes needs must.\nWill Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?\n---Resolves positively if the Federal government infringes on states rights and powers in direct relation to COVID-19 before 2022. \n---Resolves negatively if such an infringement doesn’t happen. \n---Resolves ambiguously if an emergency acts / decrees infringement occurs during the 2020 pandemic that is not immediately related to COVID-19. \n---This question will close retroactively 3 days before such an emergency act or decree is announced, whether it’s actually applied or not. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:58:06.853Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 239,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-06-15T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-03-14T11:12:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in India by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8367/fatality-in-india-nuclear-attack-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Which countries would be targeted in a nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nSee also similar questions regarding the chance of a fatality:\n--- \n[Pakistan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8368/fatality-in-pakistan-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[North Korea](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8369/fatality-in-n-korea-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Russia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8365/fatality-in-russia-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8364/fatality-in-china-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[US, UK or France](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8366/usa-uk-or-france-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\nWill there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in India by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in India from an offensive nuclear detonation between 2021-11-01 and 2030-01-01. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:51:12.850Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will unemployment be useful in forecasting the inflation rate in the same year given the inflation rate in the previous year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8322/forecasting-inflation-using-unemployment/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Phillips curves](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillips_curve) are a class of models which propose connections between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate in an economy. If there is some such relationship, we might expect that knowing both today's unemployment rate and last year's inflation rate allows us to forecast this year's inflation rate better than just relying on last year's inflation rate alone. \nTo this end, let denote the inflation rate and the unemployment rate for the United States in the year respectively. We can then run the following ordinary least squared regressions from the year to the year inclusive:\nThe [adjusted coefficient of determination](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coefficient_of_determination#Adjusted_R2) is a measure of how much of the variance in the dependent variable is explained by the regression that corrects for the number of independent variables so as to control for the effect of overfitting. Ideally, the adjusted coefficient of determination only goes up when we add an additional independent variable to a regression if the additional variable is actually useful in predicting the dependent variable.\nWe ask the following question:\nWill unemployment be useful in forecasting the inflation rate in the same year given the inflation rate in the previous year?\nThis question resolves positively if the adjusted coefficient of determination of the second regression strictly exceeds that of the first regression, and resolves negatively otherwise. Here, is the end-of-year CPI inflation for the United States obtained from [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL) for the year (meaning the year-on-year CPI inflation rate measured in December of that year) and is the end-of-year unemployment rate for the United States obtained from [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) for the year .\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:49:12.613Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-29T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons),\nThe Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination. It was adopted on 7 July 2017, opened for signature on 20 September 2017, and will enter into force on 22 January 2021.\nFor those nations that are party to it, the treaty prohibits the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to the prohibited activities. For nuclear armed states joining the treaty, it provides for a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of its nuclear weapons programme.\nA mandate adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 23 December 2016 scheduled two sessions for negotiations: 27 to 31 March and from 15 June to 7 July, 2017. The treaty passed on schedule on 7 July with 122 in favour, 1 against (Netherlands), and 1 official abstention (Singapore). 69 nations did not vote, among them all of the nuclear weapon states and all NATO members except the Netherlands.\nWhile [people are skeptical](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/) that this ban will cause any current nuclear state to imminently give up their nuclear weapons, it still may have the effect of preventing current non-nuclear states from gaining nuclear weapons. This mirrors the goal of the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons).\nWill a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports that a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons developed at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st, 2101. In case credible media disagrees, consensus will be determined via a vote in the comment section. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:29:05.633Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "A decrease in US meat production by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/281/a-decrease-in-us-meat-production-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Humans are biologically omnivorous, and with relatively few exceptions human societies have included meat a central (and often desirable) food source. The steady growth of per-capita wealth and population has thus lead to a steady growth in the number of animals killed each year worldwide.\nThere are, however, some significant countervailing trends. Arguments based on health, animal welfare, resource usage, and environmental impact have led to the steady growth of vegetarian and meat-reduced diets. Hand-in-hand, the food industry has developed a number of meat alternatives and vegetarian-friendly products, with more advanced products as well as more radical possibilities (such as cultured meat) in development. How important will these trends be?\nThe [National Agriculture Statistics Service](https://www.nass.usda.gov) carefully tracks meat production in terms of pounds produced, value produced, animals slaughtered, and per-capita production. Here we focus on the total weight of meat produced, compiled in [this table](https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/results/62C3939E-6363-33A8-8B06-4FD1D60781D1?pivot=short_desc). The table shows that meat production has steadily (but not quite monotonically) increased since 1988 from 62 billion to 76 billion pounds. We ask:\nIn 2025 will overall us meat production be lower than in 2020? \nQuestion will resolve positively if the NASS numbers for total livestock meat production in pounds are smaller for 2025 than for 2020.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:09:05.719Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 207,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-07-22T19:47:11Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Biden picks Harris for SCOTUS in 2022",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A266",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-01-26T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will India, Israel, or Pakistan join the NPT by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8587/indiaisraelpakistan-sign-npt-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nThe [United Nations states](https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/):\n\"The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT) is regarded as the cornerstone of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime and an essential foundation for the pursuit of nuclear disarmament. It was designed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, to further the goals of nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament, and to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. A total of 191 States have joined the Treaty, including the five nuclear-weapon states.\"\nFour states—India, Israel, Pakistan, and South Sudan—have never signed the treaty. (In addition, North Korea announced its withdrawal from the treaty in 2003.) India and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons and Israel is believed to do so as well. South Sudan was founded in 2011.\nWill India, Israel or Pakistan join the NPT by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if, between this question opening and January 1, 2024, at least one of India, Israel or Pakistan join ([accede](https://ask.un.org/faq/14594) to) the NPT, according to its depositary governments (USA, UK, Russia), as reported on the UN website, official websites of the depositary governments or by reputable new sources.\nSee also\n---[Will South Sudan sign the NPT by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8590/s-sudan-as-the-signatory-of-the-npt-by-2024/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:01:42.758Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Huobi default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7239/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-huobi/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Huobi is a cryptocurrency exchange. In August 2018 it became a publicly listed Hong Kong company.\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill Huobi default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---If the exchange ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their assets &c. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:07:39.406Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Is the sunflower conjecture true?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7550/truth-of-the-sunflower-conjecture/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One of [Paul Erdős'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Erd%C5%91s) favorite problems was the [sunflower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunflower_%28mathematics%29) conjecture, due to him and Rado. Erdős offered $1000 for its proof or disproof. \nThe sunflower problem asks how many sets of some size are necessary before there are some whose pairwise intersections are all the same. The best known bound was [improved in 2019](https://www.quantamagazine.org/mathematicians-begin-to-tame-wild-sunflower-problem-20191021/) to something the form ; see [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.08483) for the original paper and [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.04774) for a slightly better bound. The sunflower conjecture asks whether there is a bound for some constant .\nIs the sunflower conjecture true?\nThis question will resolve positively in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal proving the sunflower conjecture. It will resolve negatively in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal disproving the sunflower conjecture.\nIf there is no such proof by 2300-01-01, the question will resolve ambiguous. If a proof is published, but not confirmed by peer review by 2300-01-01, the question may wait to resolve until peer review has reached a consensus.\n[EDIT] Sylvain 2021-09-08 : changed the resolution date from 2121 to 2300.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:19:16.154Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-08-12T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will South Sudan join the NPT by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8590/will-south-sudan-join-the-npt-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nThe [United Nations states](https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/):\n\"The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT) is regarded as the cornerstone of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime and an essential foundation for the pursuit of nuclear disarmament. It was designed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, to further the goals of nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament, and to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. A total of 191 States have joined the Treaty, including the five nuclear-weapon states.\"\nFour states—India, Israel, Pakistan, and South Sudan—have never signed the treaty. (In addition, North Korea announced its withdrawal from the treaty in 2003.) India and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons and Israel is believed to do so as well. South Sudan was founded in 2011.\nWill South Sudan join the NPT by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if, between this question opening and January 1, 2024, South Sudan joins ([accedes](https://ask.un.org/faq/14594) to) the NPT, according to its depositary governments (USA, UK, Russia), as reported on the UN website, official websites of the depositary governments or by reputable new sources.\nSee also\n---[Will India, Israel, or Pakistan sign the NPT by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8587/new-signatories-of-npt-by-2024/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:01:58.783Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.” \nOn the one hand, Puerto Ricans can:\n--- \nClaim natural-born U.S. citizenship\n--- \nReceive Medicaid and Medicare\n--- \nVote in Presidential primaries\nOn the other hand, they cannot:\n--- \nVote in Congressional or Presidential elections\n--- \nGet access to other government programs\n--- \nBe represented in Congress by a voting legislator\nThe issue of whether to elevate Puerto Rico to statehood has been raised repeatedly since 1952. In fact, island residents have voted in statehood referendums in: 1967, 1991,1993, 1998 and 2012. In the most recent vote, sentiment on the island turned positive for the first time in voting history: Puerto Ricans want their own state.\nWhy? Well, the reasons are complicated. Those in favor believe statehood will help Puerto Rico economically—a rationale that gained converts following 2017’s devastating [Hurricane Maria](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/20/17138990/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-6-months).\nOn the mainland, meanwhile, opinion is split. A [Rasmussen Reports survey](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/february_2017/americans_support_statehood_for_puerto_rico_more_than_d_c) conducted online in March, 2017 found that:\n40% of American Adults now believe Puerto Rico should be a state, up from 35% in the fall of 2013. Largely unchanged are the 39% who disagree and the 21% who are undecided.\nEven if Puerto Ricans want statehood, it’s ultimately up to Congress. As [CNN explains](https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/12/politics/puerto-rico-question-answers-statehood-trnd/index.html): \nTo become the 51st state, Congress would have to pass a statute to admit Puerto Rico as a state, and conversations around that possibility have obviously been going on for decades. The generalities of this process are found in the \"New States\" clause in the US Constitution. Every state after the original 13 colonies has been admitted under this directive. \nAlthough there seems to be seismic attitudinal changes underway, the political process ahead is fraught. As [Vox reports](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/11/15782544/puerto-rico-pushes-for-statehood-explained):\nWhile Puerto Ricans have been fighting about their political status for decades, Congress has shown little interest in changing anything. Washington lawmakers have introduced more than 130 bills to resolve Puerto Rico’s political status, and none have gone anywhere, said Charles Venator-Santiago, a political science professor at the University of Connecticut. That’s partly because there is no defined process for statehood. “The Constitution doesn’t give direction on how to admit a new state,” says Venator-Santiago.\nWhat do you think? Question resolves positive if Puerto Rico is admitted as a United States state before January 1, 2035.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:16:11.895Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 582,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-04-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6108/norway-eea-membership-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 1994 Norway joined the EEA (at its creation) meaning that it participates in the single market allowing for the freer flow of goods, services, capital and people, but Norway doesn't have a say on the content of the rules of the single market as it is not in the EU. Also being in the EEA, but not in the EU allows countries to be outside of the EU VAT area, Common fisheries policy (this is seen as particularly important for Norway), Common Agricultural Policy, the Customs Union and the jurisdiction of the ECJ. When the implementation period ended the UK left the EEA and Sweden was just a member of the EEA before it entered the EU a year later in 1995.\nOn 31 December 2020 the UK entered into a trade agreement with the EU and left the EEA giving the UK more control of standards, but more trade friction due to rules of origin (though there is a one year exemption) and divergence of standards. In this context the [Center party in Norway has suggested it wants to leave the EEA and is performing well in the polls.](https://www.politico.eu/article/norway-eu-relationship-center-party-euroskeptics/)\nWill Norway leave EEA before 2025?\nThis question will resolve when any of the following conditions occurs; the first to occur determines the resolution:\n---Norway leaves the EEA (Positive resolution) \n---2025-01-01 is reached (Negative resolution) \n---Either organization seizes to exist (Ambiguous resolution) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:35:30.712Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 72,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/372/will-human-brain-emulation-be-the-first-successful-route-to-human-level-digital-intelligence/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the quest for \"strong\" Artificial Intelligence, defined here as digital intelligences rivaling or surpassing that of humans, a number of potential path have been discussed. Among them is \"brain emulation,\" in which the physical functioning of a human brain is directly simulated, at some level of detail, in a digital computer. \nIn an interesting recent book, [The Age of Em](https://www.amazon.com/Age-Em-Work-Robots-Earth/dp/0198754620), Robin Hanson explores the potential dynamics of human society assuming such \"Ems\" can be created, and that this occurs prior to the advent of other forms of strong AI. (See also a [recent post by Hanson](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/11/brains-simpler-than-brain-cells.html) discussing the relative timing of different AI paths.)\nThere is considerable debate about the technological feasibility of such simulation: though there is general (though not universal) agreement that the brain, being a physical system, is amenable to being simulated, the necessary computations (and data gathering) span many orders of magnitude depending upon the level of detail required. Significant intellectual effort and funding is being directed toward understanding the Brain well enough to simulate it, for example in the massive [Blue Brain Project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Brain_Project), but there is no clear consensus as to how much progress has been made toward the ultimate goal. See for example this [NYT editorial with a skeptical evaluation of brain emulation](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/11/opinion/sunday/will-you-ever-be-able-to-upload-your-brain.html?&_r=1&mtrref=www.brainpreservation.org&gwh=F7EC8C30CF7572E7C4416895098C6633&gwt=pay&assetType=opinion), and this [response by the Brain Preservation Foundation](http://www.brainpreservation.org/why-brain-emulation-is-coming-sooner-than-many-think-response-to-dr-miller-editorial/)\nTo gather thinking about this and track how the relative probabilities of \"Ems\" vs. other types of AIs evolve with time, we ask here:\nWill human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence? \nResolution is positive if the effort to create a viable (functioning, lasting, sane, etc.) emulated human, based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation), succeeds before another form of human-level digital intelligence. The latter will be defined as a digital entity capable of equalling or surpassing most or all core human cognitive capabilities. No view is taken as to the timeline for either effort except that a resolve date of 2060 is set, and resolution is ambiguous if neither effort has succeeded by then.\n(Edit 10/20/18 to state that it resolves ambiguous rather than negative in the event of no AGI by 2060.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:09:48.366Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 550,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-11-06T21:09:16Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Rs control Senate in 2022",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A153",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4742/will-mount-rushmore-be-intentionally-destroyed-or-modified-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[New York Times published an article on 1st July 2020](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/us/mount-rushmore.html) reporting on the history of the famous [Mount Rushmore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Rushmore) in South Dakota. [Their tweet announcing the article says](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1278387954440904704) \"Mount Rushmore was built on land that belonged to the Lakota tribe and sculpted by a man who had strong bonds with the Ku Klux Klan. It features the faces of 2 U.S. presidents who were slaveholders.\". Considering the many recent removals of statues in the USA ([especially of persons related to the Confederate states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials)) and elsewhere (e.g. [in the UK](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53194684)) in recent months, it seems within reason that some kind of action against Mount Rushmore might be taken.\nWill Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2025, Mount Rushmore is damaged or modified, either with the complete removal of one or more faces or other substantial modification. The damage must be such that a typical person viewing before-and-after pictures of the full monument on a monitor can immediately identify the damaged version (admins will use their judgment in edge cases). \nThe relevant damage must be substantial and result in the structure not being fully repaired or restored within a ten day period.\nFurthermore, one of the two conditions must be true:\n---The damage/modification occurs as ordered by a US state or governmental entity \n---A person or group damages Mount Rushmore without authorization, and explicitly states that their motivation was in some way related to racial inequality, slavery, or police brutality, and not, for example, tax protest or the Illuminati. \nHence, incidental damage (natural disasters, foreign nuclear strikes, etc.) is not counted.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:09:30.234Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 255,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the closing value of the Turkish lira against the US dollar on 26 May 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2205-what-will-be-the-closing-value-of-the-turkish-lira-against-the-us-dollar-on-26-may-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The Turkish lira hit record lows in November 2021 amid President Erdogan's economic policies and growing influence over the country's central bank ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/turkeys-lira-crashes-to-new-low-against-us-dollar-euro/a-59906311), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/23/turkeys-lira-hits-all-time-low-after-erdogan-rate-remarks)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Lower than 8.00",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 8.00 and 10.00, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher than 10.00 but lower than 12.00",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 12.00 and 14.00, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher than 14.00 but lower than 16.00",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "16.00 or higher",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:02:30.708Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 284,
- "numforecasters": 57,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 8.00, Between 8.00 and 10.00, inclusive, Higher than 10.00 but lower than 12.00, Between 12.00 and 14.00, inclusive, Higher than 14.00 but lower than 16.00, 16.00 or higher"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6691/1-of-great-britain-under-monarchy-in-2075/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of February 2021, the [island of Great Britain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain) is part of the [UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom), which is a constitutional monarchy. Although the monarch once held power, over time this has diminished so that their role of head of state is ['broadly ceremonial'](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/relations-with-other-institutions/parliament-crown/).\nThe [English Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Civil_War) resulted in the trial and execution of the king in 1649, and the declaration of [a republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_England), which lasted until the English monarchy was [restored](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuart_Restoration) in 1660.\nGlobally, the number of monarchies has decreased from over 150 in 1900 to 44 in 2019 ([graph](https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/636/90/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20190427_IRC763.png)).\n[A 2020 YouGov poll](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2020/02/18/8b405/1) of British adults found that 62% were in favour of retaining the monarchy, with 22% opposed.\nWill any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?\nThis question resolves positively if, on 2075-01-01, at least 1% of the population of Great Britain (the mainland island only) live in a state with a monarch as head of state.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:52:15.232Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 64,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/247/pandemic-series-a-major-naturally-originated-pandemic-by-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Other questions in [this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--pandemics) have asked separately about influenza and H5N1, and the emergence of new mosquito-borne, airborne, and blood-borne diseases. \nThose questions all concern disease that originate naturally, i.e. without any accidental or deliberate human modification and release (which is the subject of separate questions). Here we ask the general question: \nWill there be \"naturally spawned\" pandemic leading to at least 100M reported infections or at least 10M deaths in a 12-month period by the end of 2025? \nInfection and death numbers will be as taken from the WHO, CDC, or other credible source; if not entirely clear, we will assume \"naturally spawned\" unless there is credible evidence otherwise as of June 1, 2026.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:08:39.320Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 384,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T13:20:20Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-18T11:36:44.592000Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4061/will-any-major-ai-company-commit-to-an-ai-windfall-clause-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2020, the Future of Life Institute published a report entitled [\"The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good.\"](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf) (They also wrote [an abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) to be published in the [Proceedings of AIES](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3375627.3375842). Also, fun aside: Metaculus' own [@Anthony](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/8/) got a shout-out in the acknowledgements.) Essentially, they expanded on an idea from Bostrom's Superintelligence that a firm working on transformational AI technology could limit global inequality as a result of their breakthrough by pre-committing to keep only a fraction of the fabulous profits, and distribute the rest.\nThough there are numerous obstacles barring the path to making this plan a reality, the FLI research lowers many of these bars, including investigating the legal apparatus for enacting such an agreement and envisioning some of the logistical means by which a windfall might be distributed. What really remains is buy-in. If this plan will work, it will work because the companies positioned to develop windfall AI technologies signed on to a Windfall agreement in advance.\nBefore 2025, will any of the following companies/organizations ratify a Windfall Clause?\n---Alphabet (or any of its subsidiaries, such as Deepmind or X) \n---Alibaba \n---Amazon \n---Apple \n---Baidu \n---Facebook \n---Microsoft \n---OpenAI \n---Tesla \nFor the purposes of this question, a Windfall Clause is any legally-binding agreement which caps profits resulting from a new technological innovation at any value less than 50% of Gross World Product. Ratification means encoding the Windfall Clause within a institutional structure with external enforcement mechanisms (e.g. as a publicly-promulgated legal contract, as a Smart Contract on a Blockchain. Internal commitments without third-party arbiters will not suffice.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:00:30.984Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 119,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8662/chinas-nuclear-arsenal-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to most recent estimations by Arms Control Association, China currently has a nuclear arsenal of about 350 warheads [though the US Department of Defense estimated them in 2020 to be somewhere in the \"low-200s\"](https://media.defense.gov/2021/Nov/03/2002885874/-1/-1/0/2021-CMPR-FINAL.PDF) (page 92). Compared to the world's total count of over 13,000, this is a vanishingly small number, as US and Russia [continue to hold more than 90% of the total nuclear warheads](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat). \nThe 2021 'Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China' report by the US Department of Defense estimates that China might have up to 700 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2027, and \" likely intends to have at least 1,000 warheads by 2030\" (page 90). \nThis Metaculus question forecasts a 68% chance [China will have over 420 nuclear warheads by 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8139/china-have-420-warheads-by-2024/).\nIf these projections come true, this has the potential of shifting the balance of power. [As the Financial Times reports,](https://www.ft.com/content/d7c50283-18c8-4f2e-8731-970d9a547688?shareType=nongift) \"Military leaders in Washington face two critical questions. After decades of gradual increases in its nuclear forces, is China pivoting to a less defensive approach that has the potential to significantly alter the balance of power in East Asia? And could this enable China to win a conflict with the US over Taiwan by neutralising the threat from American nuclear weapons?\"\nUnderstanding China's longer-term nuclear strategy is crucial for geopolitical strategy of the US/EU in Asia.\nWill China reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030?\nThis resolves positively if China is reported to have achieved 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030 according to the FAS ([https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status…](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/)).\nThis resolves negatively if no such reports happen by 2030. \nThis resolves ambiguously if the political entity of 'China' dissolves or otherwise changes significantly.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:06:22.279Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-12-31T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Alaska in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7176/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Alaska-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the political party affiliation of the candidate who wins the 2022 Alaska U.S. Senate election. A candidate's party affiliation shall be determined exclusively by such person's ballot-listed affiliation in the election.\nCandidates who do not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties shall be considered to be \"Independent.\"\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Independent",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:57:18.293Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 59229
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Independent, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Ethereum Merge (EIP-3675) occur by May 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-ethereum-merge-eip-3675-occur-by-may-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if The Merge will occur on the Ethereum mainnet as described in EIP-3675 (or any successor to EIP-3675) by the resolution time, May 1 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, transitioning the Ethereum blockchain to proof-of-stake.\n\nIf the first proof-of-stake block (defined in EIP-3675 as TRANSITION_BLOCK) is produced before the resolution time, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". \nOtherwise, the market will resolve \"No\".\n\nNote that forks to the execution layer and the consensus layer implementing EIP-3675 will not have any impact on the market resolution. Only the actual occurrence of The Merge will be considered.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1229222128587044324844567042849954",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8770777871412955675155432957150046",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.517Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "70",
- "liquidity": "1236.81",
- "tradevolume": "3484.12",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x678F62B696D8Aaf0C59D543101f89583d0d581A4"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will anyone be convicted for the possession of Bitcoin before 2060 in the United States?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7209/will-bitcoin-possession-be-illegal/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The laws surrounding cryptocurrencies are likely to have many parts and be complicated. This question is targeted toward the legality of simple possession of Bitcoin specifically.\nWill any citizen or company be convicted for the possession of Bitcoin before 2060 in the United States?\nWill anyone in the United States be convicted, in any U.S. court, for the possession of Bitcoin, before January 1st 2060?\n--- \nThe charge must explicitly be for the possession of Bitcoin. If they bought drugs on the darkweb using Bitcoin and were just charged for buying drugs, that would be irrelevant to this question.\n--- \nSimilarly, if someone doesn't report their Bitcoin capital gains to the IRS and then is convicted for income tax evasion, that does not count.\n--- \nThis question only resolves positively if the coins themselves are made illegal. For example, convictions for owning stolen Bitcoin or Bitcoin used in criminal transactions do not count towards positive resolution. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:06:15.302Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 101,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-17T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2056-07-19T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald J. Trump be indicted by December 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-j-trump-be-indicted-by-december-31-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States unseals or otherwise officially announces a criminal indictment of former President Donald Trump before the resolution time December 31 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. \nOtherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nPlease note, for purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.\nNote also, that an indictment that has been issued before the resolution time but remains sealed or otherwise secret at the resolution time will not be considered in this market.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.2357158094446689281433682032235913",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.7642841905553310718566317967764087",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.516Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "70",
- "liquidity": "815.47",
- "tradevolume": "3191.15",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x037EF80890f4e75c6C772E56E17aBE981Cc9BCd0"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Italy have a higher COVID-19 Case Average per capita than the US, France, and Spain on March 1st?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-italy-have-a-higher-covid-19-case-average-per-capita-than-the-us-france-and-spain-on-march-1st",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Italy has a higher COVID-19 Case Average per capita than the US, France, and Spain on March 1, 2022 and “No” otherwise. The resolution source will be OurWorldInData; https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?facet=none&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&country=FRA~USA~ITA~ESP&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Color+by+test+positivity=false. The source will be checked daily starting from March 2, 8 PM ET until data is available for the day of March 1. If data is unavailable on the source by March 11, 8 PM ET, https://covid19.who.int/ will be used instead. ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1077160374371858541461797902475451",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8922839625628141458538202097524549",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.517Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "69",
- "liquidity": "1143.11",
- "tradevolume": "1844.43",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x2Ae68B7e97463db0409fD420A53510d8874769d0"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) \nElon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion.\nWill Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030?\nThis claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO\nIf there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously.\nComparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:22:19.244Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 86,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-10-11T06:57:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-03-11T06:58:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If a Republican wins the 2024 US Presidential Election, will the US withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement before 2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9627/us-exit-from-paris-agreement-if-gop-win-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The United States withdrew from the 2015 Paris Agreement in [November 2020](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54797743), following an announcement in June 2017 that the United States would withdraw by President Trump and giving formal notice of its intention to leave the agreement in [November 2019](https://www.npr.org/2019/11/04/773474657/u-s-formally-begins-to-leave-the-paris-climate-agreement). After the election of Joe Biden as President in 2020, the United States [rejoined the Paris Agreement in 2021](https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-officially-rejoins-the-paris-agreement/). In April 2021, [Nicholas Chan](https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/america-s-back-paris-agreement-how-long) wrote for The Interpreter:\nFor how long will this moment last? Or will the world once again face a US climate “Groundhog Day” come the next presidential electoral cycle in three years? This prospect depends on whether the Trumpist foreign policy approach to multilateralism persists in the Republican party [...]\nThe [Paris Agreement](https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement) is a legally-binding international treaty on Climate Change, agreed upon at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference ([COP 21](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference)). The Paris Agreement’s long term temperature goal is to keep global warming below 2 degrees celsius above pre-industrial levels, and preferably below 1.5 degrees celsius. Global emissions would need to be [cut by around 50%](https://climateanalytics.org/briefings/15c/) in order to reach the 1.5 degrees celsius goal, and in 2019 the United States had the [second highest level of CO2 Emissions](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co2?facet=none&country=CHN~USA&Gas=CO%E2%82%82&Accounting=Consumption-based&Fuel=Total&Count=Per+country&Relative+to+world+total=true) behind China.\nIf a Republican wins the 2024 US Presidential Election, will the US withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement before 2029?\nThe question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2029, the United States President formally notifies the United Nations that it will withdraw from the Paris Agreement, conditional on the United States President on June 1, 2025 being a Republican. An informal announcement that the United States intends to withdraw from the Paris Agreement will not resolve the question.\nIf the US President on June 1, 2025 is not a member of the Republican party, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.68,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:47:58.497Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-02-03T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-01T09:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T10:10:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Biden’s Build Back Better Budget include a requirement for banks to report financial data on accounts receiving sufficiently large deposits?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8524/2022-budget-includes-new-bank-surveillance/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Biden administration’s “[Build Back Better](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5376/text)” budget plan, a key legislative priority, is projected to cost $3.5 trillion. The administration has been careful to call their plans budget neutral in messaging, which is prompting some creative revenue gathering exercise. In this case, bill proposes to raise revenues by tinkering with financial surveillance requirements in order to spot unpaid taxes. \nIn the initial version of the plan, financial custodians would be obligated to turn over financial data on accounts with total annual deposits or withdrawals [worth more than $600](https://www.wsj.com/articles/yellen-irs-push-democrats-to-require-banks-to-report-annual-account-flows-11631727020), purportedly to root out “billionaires” who are underpaying taxes. While Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen tried to calm nerves by claiming the Treasury Department would not have access to individual transactions but rather would only be able to determine whether there was a discrepancy between account information and individual tax reporting, critics pointed out that millions of Americans would be caught in this net intended to root out “billionaire” tax cheats. Responding to this pressure, the threshold was [raised](https://www.wsj.com/articles/irs-bank-reporting-democrats-11634658560) to annual withdrawals and deposits worth more than $10,000.\nBanking interests as well as the cryptocurrency industry and privacy activists oppose this issue. The Biden administration has engaged in many public appearances to try to sell the plan to the public, as both this spending bill as well as the general move to “tax billionaires” are key priorities.\nWill Biden’s Build Back Better Budget include a requirement for banks to report financial data on accounts receiving sufficiently large deposits?\nThis question will resolve positively if the 2022 federal budget includes a requirement for banks to report total annual withdrawals and deposits for accounts which receive deposits over a specified amount. This question will resolve positively if such a requirement is passed into law, regardless of what size the threshold is ($600, 10,000, or otherwise). This will resolve negatively if the 2022 federal budget does not include this provision.\nThis question will close retroactively 24 hours before the 2022 budget is passed by both the Senate and the House of Representatives.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:57:32.485Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-07T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-20T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a US-Russia war by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7452/will-there-be-a-us-russia-war-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[US-Russia relations have been strained](https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-russia/) and tested through much of the 20th and 21st centuries. [Tensions have often been high even after the Cold War ended](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-fsu/2021-04-06/us-russian-relations-will-only-get-worse), due to incidents such as expansions of NATO, the US invasion of Iraq and airstrikes in Libya, and Russia's aggression towards Ukraine and Georgia and interference in Western institutions like NATO, the EU, and the US Presidential Elections. \n\"Any sustained improvement of relations between the United States and Russia beyond progress on arms control (such as the recent extension of the New START treaty) would require one of two concessions: either the United States shelves its foundational support for democracy and formally recognizes a Russian-privileged sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union or the Russian president decides his interests are not threatened by greater democracy in the region or by having fully sovereign neighbors. Neither is likely to materialize in the near future.\"\nWill there be a US-Russia war by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if there's a war between the US and Russia by 2050. For the purposes of this question, a US-Russia war is defined as the US and Russia collectively suffering [at least 1000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the US and an ally of Russia or between Russia and an ally of the US will not count towards positive resolution.\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:15:26.178Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 157,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T23:58:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T23:58:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9207/china-covid-deaths-to-exceed-50k/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Despite being the original epicentre of the Covid-19 pandemic, China has fared relatively well in terms of reported deaths, with only 4,636 deaths reported as of Jan 2nd 2022, according to [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/china#daily-confirmed-deaths-how-do-they-compare-to-other-countries).\nThis figure has been widely questioned, e.g. by [Forbes](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2022/01/02/beijing-is-intentionally-underreporting-chinas-covid-death-rate-part-1/amp/) and [ABC news](https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/100587910), with suggestions ranging from true numbers in the low 10,000s to over 1,000,000.\nThis question asks if OWID will report a cumulative deaths figure of greater than 50,000 for China by the end of 2022.\nWill cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 by the end of 2022?\nIf Our World In Data report a cumulative total of over 50,000 deaths in China by the end of 2022, this should resolve positively, otherwise it should resolve negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:33:07.095Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T10:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "BTC hits >=$100K by EOY 2024",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A30",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-01-07T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to naturally occuring pandemics?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8745/gc-caused-by-natural-pandemic-if-gc-occurs/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A pandemic is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of individuals. Recent pandemics include tuberculosis, Russian flu, Spanish flu, Asian flu, cholera, Hong Kong flu, HIV/AIDS, SARS and COVID-19.\n[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \nOn this definition, the COVID-19 pandemic does not count as a global catastrophe. As of November 25, [The Economist's median estimate](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates) for the COVID-19 global death toll is 17.3M, which amount to 0.22% of the global population:\nAlthough the official number of deaths caused by covid-19 is now 5.2m, our single best estimate is that the actual toll is 17.3m people. We find that there is a 95% chance that the true value lies between 10.8m and 20.2m additional deaths.\nBy contrast, the bubonic plague likely does count as a global catastrophe on our definition. It is estimated that the bubonic plague pandemic, which ocurred in Afro-Eurasia from 1346 to 1353, killed [between 25 million and 200 million people in the space of five years](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21539483/covid-19-black-death-plagues-in-history). Using [estimates of the global population at the time](https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/international-programs/historical-est-worldpop.html), these numbers suggest that the Black Death killed between 5 percent to 40 percent of the world’s population at the time.\nIf a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to naturally occuring pandemics?\nThe question resolves positively if a global catastrophe occurs resulting from naturally occurring pandemic(s) that claim at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs. Positive resolution requires there to be a high degree of confidence that the relevant pathogens have natural origins, as opossed to being synthesized, edited or enhanced using Gain of Function techniques. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:10:38.597Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-24T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-06-16T22:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5538/california-zero-emission-sales-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In September 2020, Governor Newsom announced in an [executive order](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/) that by 2035 all new passenger cars and trucks (which do not include medium or heavy duty vehicles) sold in California will need to be zero-emission vehicles. \nGovernor Brown, who in 2012 implemented the executive order for the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Program, defined a [ZEV](https://www.transportpolicy.net/standard/california-zev/) in 2013 as:\n“including hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) and plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), which include both pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).”\nThe [California Governor’s office](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/) writes as of September 23, 2020 that:\n“The transportation sector is responsible for more than half of all of California’s carbon pollution, 80 percent of smog-forming pollution and 95 percent of toxic diesel emissions – all while communities in the Los Angeles Basin and Central Valley see some of the dirtiest and most toxic air in the country.”\n[13 other American states](https://rhg.com/research/states-zero-emission-vehicles/#:~:text=Thirteen%20states%E2%80%94New%20York%2C%20Massachusetts,of%20the%20Clean%20Air%20Act) have agreed to follow California’s plans for reducing emissions by adopting their GHG standards and ZEV program under Act 177. It is possible that they might also join California in banning the sales of ICE powered cars in an effort to fight climate change. \nHowever, there are [many complaints](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/us/newsom-climate-plan.html) about this future transition and the threat it could bring to workers in auto manufacturing sectors, as well as other supply chain members such as companies providing fossil fuels. There are also concerns about the supporting charging infrastructure needed to accommodate such a shift, and if it would be practically feasible. \nThis is a key issue in the widespread battle between economic security and stability and climate consciousness, and could lead the way in proving or negating the validity of the argument between the two.\nWill California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035?\nResolution criteria for this question will be found through reliable media sources in California or nationally, or through the Office of the Governor in California. The [official document](https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/9.23.20-EO-N-79-20-Climate.pdf) posted by the Governor’s Office outlines only the sales of new ZEV light duty passenger vehicles by 2035, and does not include the sale of used, non-ZEV passenger cars and trucks after 2035. If only certain counties are 100% in ZEV sales, then this question will resolve negatively as the executive order clearly states the goal of 100% ZEV sales as a state-wide plan. \nIf the definition of ZEV changes before 2035, or the executive order no longer is in place by 2035, then this question will resolve negatively. If all new sales by dealerships for light duty vehicles throughout the state are ZEV as defined by the ZEV program from 2012, then this question will resolve positively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:24:21.173Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-27T20:18:32Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-12-31T21:11:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-12-31T21:11:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area.\nTo give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago.\nThis question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? \nFor a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:29:16.853Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 272,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a mini-Maunder event occur beginning in Solar Cycle 25 (or 24)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4979/will-a-mini-maunder-event-occur-beginning-in-solar-cycle-25-or-24/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe Maunder Minimum, which took place in the late 17th and early 18th centuries, was associated with several successive unusually low-activity solar cycles. During this period, [very few sunspots appeared](https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/7122/chilly-temperatures-during-the-maunder-minimum) on the surface of the Sun, and the overall luminosity of the Sun was slightly lower than average. During this period, temperatures on Earth dropped, and the the Northern hemisphere experienced a ‘little Ice Age.” Opinions diverge on whether the dearth solar activity was causative for the temperature decline. Volcanic activity, for example, may have been [more directly responsible](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/01/120130131509.htm) for the temporary cooling.\nAs [Petrovay (2020)](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) states in their recent review article:\n“With the known poor cycle-to-cycle correlation, strong deviations from the long-term mean would be expected to be damped on time scales short compared to, e.g., the length of the Maunder minimum. This suggests that the persistent states of low or high activity may be due to truly long term memory effects extending over several cycles.”\nInterestingly, Solar Cycle 24 presented the first major decrease in solar activity levels since the 1950s. Given the likelihood that the Sun’s field configuration harbors some degree of long-term memory of its state, Cycle 25 might be expected to be relatively low in terms of both activity and sunspot numbers. This inference has been challenged, however, and so the actual development of solar activity levels during Cycle 25 will help confirm or deny the hypothesis that the Sun is transitioning into mini-Maunder event.\nIf Earth is set to experience a prolonged damper on the Sun’s activity, does that imply a green light to ditch the Prius and gas up the SUV? (Un)fortunately, the answer is no. [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2953/there-is-no-impending-mini-ice-age/) and other sources are in consensus that Earth will definitely not enter another mini-ice age in the 21st Century. Climate inputs such as the Sun’s activity-induced variation are dwarfed by the greenhouse warming associated with rapid ongoing increase in atmospheric concentrations of molecules such as CO2 that are effective absorbers of infrared light.\n“The warming caused by the greenhouse gas emissions from the human burning of fossil fuels is six times greater than the possible decades-long cooling from a prolonged Grand Solar Minimum. Even if a Grand Solar Minimum were to last a century, global temperatures would continue to warm. The reason for this is because more factors than just variations in the Sun’s output change global temperatures on Earth, the most dominant of those today is the warming coming from human-induced greenhouse gas emissions.”\nWill a mini-Maunder event occur beginning in Solar Cycle 24 or 25?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThis question will be resolved as either positive or negative from authoritative sources such as [NASA](https://science.nasa.gov/), or the [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/). If a mini-Maunder event does not occur in Solar Cycle 24 or in Cycle 25 then the question will resolve negatively, if an event does occur, it will resolve positively. If there is not sufficient data to arrive at a conclusion, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.42,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5800000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:15:47.744Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T02:30:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T02:31:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which of these 10 European leaders will leave office next?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7636/Which-of-these-10-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that the individual holds upon launch of this market on December 10, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his or her position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nGerman Chancellor Olaf Sholz's absence from the Settlement Source at the time of the launch of the market shall not be considered relevant for the resolution of this market.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Boris Johnson",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Viktor Orbán",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Emmanuel Macron",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mario Draghi",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Pedro Sánchez",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alexander Lukashenko",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Olaf Scholz",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Vladimir Putin",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mark Rutte",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sanna Marin",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:04:50.531Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 110448
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Boris Johnson, Viktor Orbán, Emmanuel Macron, Mario Draghi, Pedro Sánchez, Alexander Lukashenko, Olaf Scholz, Vladimir Putin, Mark Rutte, Sanna Marin"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Iran recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8032/iran-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has remained an unrecognized state. The Asia Times [reported](https://twitter.com/KZiabari/status/1439967886454493189) that the Iranian leadership was divided on recognizing the Taliban.\nWill Iran recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 01-01-2030, reliable media sources report that the Iranian government has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:36:16.609Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-25T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": ">=47 Dem-held seats after 2022 Senate elections",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A167",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-06-04T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7722/nuclear-sharing-and-tpnw/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Several U.S. allies participate in [nuclear sharing through the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_50068.htm). According to publicly-available information, these countries are Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey. These countries occupy a [special position](https://k1project.columbia.edu/news/caring-about-sharing) in the nuclear world; they are classified as \"non-nuclear\" countries for the purposes of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), but they host nuclear weapons on their territory.\nThe Federation of American Scientists provides an overview of [U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe](https://fas.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Brief2019_EuroNukes_CACNP_.pdf).\nThe United States and NATO leadership continue to view this arrangement as crucial to the defense of Europe and the security of the free world, and make this case publicly, as in this recent op-ed in the Frankfurter Allgemeine, \"[Germany’s support for nuclear sharing is vital to protect peace and freedom](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_175663.htm).\"\nThis attitude, however, is not necessarily in line with domestic audiences, some of whom have long protested stationing weapons of mass destruction on their purportedly \"non-nuclear\" soil. Germany is a valuable example. Recent polls conducted by the Munich Security conference show that [66% percent of respondents](https://securityconference.org/assets/01_Bilder_Inhalte/03_Medien/02_Publikationen/MSC_Germany_Report_10-2020_Engl.pdf) said they believed Germany should “renounce nuclear deterrence entirely.” Polling by the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons similarly shows that [public opinion in EU states opposes nuclear weapons](https://www.icanw.org/polls_public_opinion_in_eu_host_states_firmly_opposes_nuclear_weapons).\nPublic opinion has helped to drive the adoption of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). The treaty is widely understood to be symbolic, especially without the signatures of any nuclear power, but after collecting 50 signatures, the [TPNW entered into force in January 2021](https://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/treaty-on-the-prohibition-of-nuclear-weapons/#:~:text=The%20Treaty%20entered%20into%20force,approval%2C%20or%20accession%20was%20deposited.). It is \"the first treaty in history that categorically and permanently prohibits for all its parties the testing, possession, transfer, use, or threat of use of nuclear weapons, and that aims for universal participation\" ([source](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-05/legal-and-political-myths-of-the-treaty-on-the-prohibition-of-nuclear-weapons/))\nIn the ICAN poll cited above, 68% of polled Germans believed the country should sign the TPNW. These developments, and the German Green Party's traditional opposition to all things nuclear, have led to an examination of [the future of nuclear sharing given the upcoming German election](https://www.brookings.edu/research/germanys-upcoming-election-and-the-future-of-nuclear-sharing/). \nSignature of the TPNW by any current nuclear-sharing state would likely significantly alter NATO deterrence policy, and would indicate a crack in the alliance. Thus, even if the TPNW has no \"teeth,\" as critics point out, the outcome of this question has significant consequences for the future of transatlantic security environment.\nThis question asks whether any NATO member state currently hosting U.S. nuclear weapons will sign on to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons before 11:59pm on 31 December 2022.\nWill a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve if any NATO member state hosting U.S. nuclear weapons as part of a \"nuclear sharing\" agreement as of 11 August 2021 signs on to the TPNW before the end of 2022.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:23:23.255Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 104,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-27T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many federal judges will be confirmed by Feb. 18?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7674/How-many-federal-judges-will-be-confirmed-by-Feb-18",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 01/21/2022.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of federal judges who will have been confirmed by the United States Senate to their positions in the federal judiciary between the beginning of the 117th Congress and the End Date listed below.\nFor purposes of resolving this market, the federal judiciary is understood to consist of the following five types of courts –\nUnited States District Courts (including territorial courts), United States Courts of Appeals, the United States Court of Federal Claims, the United States Court of International Trade, and the Supreme Court of the United States.\nAny confirmation vote that may be underway, but has not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/18/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 01/21/2022 11:13 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: Neither the Superior Court of the District of Columbia nor the District of Columbia Court of Appeals are considered part of the federal judiciary as defined in the Rules, and judges confirmed to these courts will not be counted for purposes of resolving this market.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "46 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "47 or 48",
- "probability": 0.5855855855855856,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "49 or 50",
- "probability": 0.17117117117117117,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "51 or 52",
- "probability": 0.09909909909909909,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "53 or 54",
- "probability": 0.07207207207207207,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "55 or 56",
- "probability": 0.027027027027027025,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "57 or 58",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "59 or 60",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "61 or 62",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "63 or more",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:06:00.888Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 112906
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "46 or fewer, 47 or 48, 49 or 50, 51 or 52, 53 or 54, 55 or 56, 57 or 58, 59 or 60, 61 or 62, 63 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Axie Infinity's Battles V3 \"Axie: Origin\" be released by March 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-axie-infinitys-battles-v3-axie-origin-be-released-by-march-31-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether NFT-based video game Axie Infinity's Battles V3 \"Axie: Origin\" will launch and be available for play publicly before April 1 2022. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Axie Infinity's Battles V3 \"Axie: Origin\" launches at any time prior to March 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be direct releases from the Axie Infinity team\n(https://twitter.com/AxieInfinity, https://axie.substack.com/), however other credible sources will also suffice.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.2384967938361766226612229203147958",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.7615032061638233773387770796852042",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.518Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "21",
- "liquidity": "7709.43",
- "tradevolume": "2457.88",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x939022B0338ba5D482fC621dd2e9D5641Df3063f"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will President Biden’s approval rating be as of 31 March 2022, according to FiveThirtyEight?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2120-what-will-president-biden-s-approval-rating-be-as-of-31-march-2022-according-to-fivethirtyeight",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The outcome will be determined using \"All polls\" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's \"How [un]popular is Joe Biden?\" page ([FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/)). As of 7 September 2021, Biden's approval rating was 45.3%. The data for 31 March 2022 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 4 April 2022.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Lower than 40.0%",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 40.0% and 45.0%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher than 45.0% but lower than 50.0%",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 50.0% and 55.0%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher than 55.0%",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:04:54.869Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 953,
- "numforecasters": 263,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 40.0%, Between 40.0% and 45.0%, inclusive, Higher than 45.0% but lower than 50.0%, Between 50.0% and 55.0%, inclusive, Higher than 55.0%"
- },
- {
- "title": "If the US Supreme Court hears a case on the Bank Secrecy Act by 2070, will they find it to be constitutional?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8526/constitutionality-of-bank-secrecy-act/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[When will the US Supreme Court rule on the constitutionality of any part of the Bank Secrecy Act?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8522/date-of-scotus-decision-on-bank-secrecy-act/) \nThe [Bank Secrecy Act of 1970](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_Secrecy_Act) was signed into law in 1970, giving US government agencies more capabilities to catch money laundering, criminal activity, and tax evasion. It was challenged promptly by several banks and the [ACLU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_Secrecy_Act), resulting in the Supreme Court case [California Bankers Association v. Schulz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Bankers_Assn._v._Shultz). The Plaintiffs argued that the BSA violated customer's First and Fourth Amendment rights to privacy and Fifth amendment rights to Due Process.\nThe court decided 7-2 that the BSA was constitutional, with Justices William Brennan and William Douglas dissenting. The BSA survived another challenge in [United States v. Miller (1976)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Miller_%281976%29), and the BSA has formed the basis of further expansions in the government's financial surveillance powers.\nIf the US Supreme Court hears a case on the Bank Secrecy Act by 2070, will they find it to be constitutional?\nIf by 2070-01-01, the Supreme Court of The United States hears a case which challenges the constitutionality of Bank Secrecy Act of 1970, this question will resolve positively if the court decides it is constitutional. If the BSA is challenged on multiple points and the court finds any part of the act unconstitutional, this question will resolve negatively. If no qualifying cases are decided before 2070-01-01, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nIf a case is dismissed or ruled on procedural grounds, such cases will be ignored for the purposes of this question. If the BSA is repealed through legislation, this question will resolve ambiguously \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:57:43.457Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-09T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2036-01-18T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the world population increase every year for the next decade?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/124/will-the-world-population-increase-every-year-for-the-next-decade/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The very high and steadily increasing world population is a problem in many ways: environmental impact, poverty, and armed conflict are just a few of many adverse effects of a population arguably growing past Earth's comfortable carrying capacity.\nAs shown in [UN projections](http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/), the 2015 population of 7.35 billion is slated to grow to 8.1 billion in 2025. This represents a growth of between 75 (in 2025) and 83 (in 2016) million people per year. It is based on 18.6 (2015-2020) and 17.5 (2020-2025) births/year/1000 people and 7.8 (2015-2020) and 7.9 (2020-2025) deaths/year/1000 people.\nWhile population growth is problematic, it is a bit like aging: the alternative is very likely worse! In this question we ask:\nWill the world population grow every year from 2016-2025?\nA negative resolution would require either a significant decrease in the birth rate, or significant increase in the death rate. The latter could occur due to a global pandemic, war, or other calamity causing tens of millions of additional deaths in a year. A lower birth rate is also conceivable, e.g. if the Zika virus were to significantly decrease or forestall pregnancies worldwide. Population numbers to be taken from UN data.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.050000000000000044,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:55.674Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 2107,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-02-03T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1043/will-any-state-impose-a-state-wide-soda-tax-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For decades, a brutal war has been raging in the world of nutrition science. \nIn the 1960s and 1970s, believers that dietary fat was the enemy--whose ranks included University of Minnesota's [Ancel Keys](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancel_Keys) and Harvard's [Fred Stare](https://www.statnews.com/2016/09/12/sugar-industry-harvard-research/)--sparred aggressively with those like [John Yudkin](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/wellbeing/diet/10634081/John-Yudkin-the-man-who-tried-to-warn-us-about-sugar.html) in England and Dr. [Alfred Pennington](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1848046/) (and his disciples, like Dr. Robert Atkins), who thought sugar was the far greater dietary evil.\nThe anti-fat crowd won that political battle and got enshrined the idea the \"low fat is healthy\" in monuments like the first [U.S. Dietary Guidelines](https://health.gov/dietaryguidelines/history.htm).\nNearly 40 years since those guidelines radically shifted how Americans eat, the pendulum seems to be swinging the other way. Dietary fat's witnessing something of a [renaissance](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-22/fat-is-back-and-premium-butter-makers-are-taking-the-cream). While dietary sugar is once again being seen as a [malign force](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBnniua6-oM).\nTo that end, policymakers and politicians are beginning to take action to restrict sugar or at least make it less palatable to consumers.\nIn the UK, a recently passed [sugar tax](http://theconversation.com/sugar-tax-what-you-need-to-know-94520) has big implications: \"From now on, drinks with a sugar content of more than 5g per 100ml will be taxed 18p per litre and 24p for drinks with 8g or more.\"\nIn Mexico, one of the most obese nations in the world, activists managed to [pass a soda tax](https://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/nov/03/obese-soda-sugar-tax-mexico) a few years ago.\nAnd in the U.S., cities like Berkeley have already passed similar measures. The [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/food/is-a-soda-tax-the-solution-to-americas-obesity-problem/2015/03/23/b6216864-ccf8-11e4-a2a7-9517a3a70506_story.html?utm_term=.3b197915d0d3) shares some key details: \nBerkeley is the first city to impose a tax and the first U.S. experiment with a tax that’s probably high enough to put a dent in consumers’ soda habits. Depending on the product, a penny-per-ounce tax can be heavy; when Coke goes on sale at my supermarket, I can buy 24 cans — 288 ounces — for about $4. A $2.88 tax would mean a 72 percent price increase. For higher-priced energy and fruit drinks, the percentage increase would be smaller. According to Lisa Powell, a professor of health policy and administration at the University of Illinois at Chicago, a penny-per-ounce tax would be about equal to a 17 percent price increase overall. She says that would result in about a 20 percent consumption decline. \nAnd then there's this [amazing research](http://drexel.edu/now/archive/2018/April/After-soda-tax-philadelphians-40-percent-less-likely-to-drink-soda-every-day/):\nAlmost immediately after the “soda tax” went into place, Philadelphians were 40 percent less likely to drink soda every day, a new Drexel University study found\nWhether or not you approve of their nutritional philosophy or tactics, the anti-sugar forces are clearly on the move, and it seems likely that more sugar taxes are in the offing.\nBut will we see a whole state (e.g. California) pass into law a tax on soda – with the explicit, written intent to disincentivize soda consumption – by Jan 1, 2025?\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.64,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:18:50.655Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 106,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-01-01T05:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the closing value of the Hang Seng Index on 30 June 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2189-what-will-be-the-closing-value-of-the-hang-seng-index-on-30-june-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Hong Kong's economy is being closely watched as its relationship with China continues to evolve ([Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/27/can-hong-kongs-economy-survive-chinas-political-crackdown), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-q3-gdp-growth-hits-1-year-low-raising-heat-policymakers-2021-10-17/)). The outcome will be determined using data reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/HSI:IND)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 20,000",
- "probability": 0.065,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 20,000 and 23,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.285,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 23,000 but less than 26,000",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 26,000 and 29,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 29,000 but less than 32,000",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "32,000 or more",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:02:56.526Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 173,
- "numforecasters": 29,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 20,000, Between 20,000 and 23,000, inclusive, More than 23,000 but less than 26,000, Between 26,000 and 29,000, inclusive, More than 29,000 but less than 32,000, 32,000 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Hu Chunhua be elected to the CCP Politburo Standing Committee before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7210/Will-Hu-Chunhua-be-elected-to-the-CCP-Politburo-Standing-Committee-before-2023",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Hu Chunhua, a member of the Chinese Communist Party's Politburo at the time of the launch of this market on April 5, 2021, is elected to a position on the Party's Politburo Standing Committee by a Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee by the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 10:59 AM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.66,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:58:10.114Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 6260
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a non-BJP Prime Minister of India before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7841/non-bjp-indian-pm-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Prime Minister Modi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narendra_Modi) of India is a member of the [BJP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bharatiya_Janata_Party). The BJP won a majority of 282 seats in India's [Lok Sabha](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lok_Sabha) in 2014 and increase that majority to [303 seats in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Indian_general_election), outperforming expectations.\nWill there be a non-BJP Prime Minister of India before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positive if before 2031-01-01, an Indian Prime Minister takes office who is not a member of the BJP, or if the acting Prime Minister changes membership to another party.\n[EIDT] Sylvain 2021-09-02: reversed the title, which was the opposite of the resolution criteria.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:28:42.545Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-28T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Ivanka Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Florida. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:55:03.906Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 208318
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7057/turing-test-for-plant-based-meat-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Turing test (originally called the imitation game by Alan Turing's [1950 paper](https://phil415.pbworks.com/f/TuringComputing.pdf)) is a test of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behaviour equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human. Turing proposed that a human evaluator would judge natural language conversations between a human and a machine designed to generate human-like responses. The evaluator would be aware that one of the two partners in conversation is a machine, and all participants would be separated from one another. If the evaluator cannot reliably tell the machine from the human, the machine is said to have passed the test.\nBy a rough analogy, then, we might say that a product passes a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat if an evaluator cannot reliably tell the difference between plant-based meat and actual meat products.\nWill a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, by 2023-04-01, a double-blinded randomised controlled trial reveals that human evaluators are not able to distinguish actual and plant-based meat products. The test must involve at least 50 subjects in both the control group (who receive actual meat products) and at least one of the treatment group (who receive plant-based meat products).\nTo qualify for positive resolution, the result must be statistically significant. In particular:\n---If the null hypothesis is that there is a difference between the relevant products, positive resolution requires that the null hypothesis must be rejected at at least a 5% sign. level \n---In case the null hypothesis is that there is no difference in the subject's guesses about the contents of the product, positive resolution requires that the null hypothesis cannot be rejected at a 10% significance level. \nThis question resolves ambiguously if no test that satisfies the above description is conducted by 2023-04-01.\nWe define plant based meat as products made from plant and non-animal products that resemble meat in texture, flavor, and appearance. Plant and non-animal ingredients can include anything as long as they are not sourced from an animal of any kind. \nETA (2021-04-28): The product (beef, poultry, pork or fish) must contains at least 20% plant-based meat by weight, and the total weight must be no less than 50 grams\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.59,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.41000000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:02:01.211Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 175,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-10-31T23:05:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-01T23:06:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon, if there's an offensive detonation by then?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8584/nsnw-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "What the first offensive nuclear detonation would look like is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk. One question is whether the first detonation would be of a strategic or non-strategic nuclear weapon. [Non-strategic nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_nuclear_weapon) (also known as tactical nuclear weapons) are typically lower yield, shorter-range, and intended for detonating closer to friendly forces or friendly territory than strategic nuclear weapons. There is no exact definition on weapon yields or ranges, as some non-strategic weapons can be used in a strategic context, and vice versa.\nWill the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon, if there's an offensive detonation by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence that the first offensive nuclear detonation between this question opening and 2024 was a detonation of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world by 2024. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs before 2024.\nFor the purposes of this question, a strategic nuclear weapon is a weapon designed mostly to be targeted at the enemy interior (away from the war front) against military bases, cities, towns, arms industries, and other hardened or larger-area targets, while a non-strategic nuclear is a nuclear weapon designed mostly to be used on a battlefield, near friendly forces, or on or near friendly territory. But note that this question is about the type of weapon, not the type of target; it's conceivable that a non-strategic weapon could be used against the sort of target strategic weapons are designed for or vice versa.\nThe military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). \nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nSee also:\n--- \n[Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be against a battlefield target, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8585/bt-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be on city, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8586/city-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-target/)\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:01:27.208Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4923/will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-by-ai/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Millennium Prize Problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are seven problems in mathematics that were stated by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. A correct solution to any of the problems results in a 1 million dollar prize being awarded by the institute to the discoverer(s). The problems are:\n---[The Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/birch-and-swinnerton-dyer-conjecture) \n---[Hodge conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/hodge-conjecture) \n---[Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/navier%E2%80%93stokes-equation) \n---[P versus NP problem](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem) \n---[Poincaré conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/poincar%C3%A9-conjecture) \n---[Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis) \n---[Yang–Mills existence and mass gap](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/yang%E2%80%93mills-and-mass-gap) \nTo date, the only Millennium Prize problem to have been solved is the Poincaré conjecture, which was solved in 2003 by the Russian mathematician Grigori Perelman. He declined the prize money.\nThis question asks:\nWill the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?\nThe question will resolve when the next Millennium Prize Problem is announced as solved by the Clay Mathematics Institute, or, in case that is no longer possible, as soon as consensus in the mathematics community is reached that the solution is correct. The question will retroactively close on the day before the first publication of the announcement of the solution by the authors.\nThe question will resolve positive if most of the major novel elements of the solution were primarily discovered trough the use of AI. The contribution of humans should be limited to:\n---Creating the AI system. \n---Feeding the system with previously established knowledge. \n---Stating the problem in a form understandable by the AI. \n---Converting the solution into a form understandable by humans. \n---Other tasks unrelated to the core of the solution. \nThe AI should be understood broadly as any computation system that is not human.\nThe question will resolve negative if the problem is solved with a traditional approach based directly on human intellect and use of AI is not highlighted as crucial by the authors.\nIf the triggering event is still considered unclear, then the ambiguity will be resolved based on whether at least one more similar breakthrough (including, but not limited to, other Milenium Prize problems) featuring similar use of AI follows in the 3 years following the first solution announcement. The main promise of the AI systems is their ability to increase the speed of discoveries beyond human ability, so this type of disambiguation should remain true to this question's spirit.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:13:52.469Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 201,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner.\nIn a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously.\nIn a [2008 survey](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in Oxford, participants were asked to make their best guess at the chance that there will be disasters of different types before 2100. The median estimate of the chance of 1 billion deaths by 2100 by a superintelligent AI was 5%. Interestingly the median estimate of the chance of human extinction by a superintelligent AI was also 5%, suggesting that if an AI-failure-mode-induced-catastrophe does occur, it's likely be a terminal one for human civilisation.\nWhen considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely (according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/)): \n1--The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2--The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem. You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants. \nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) Now it is asked,\nGiven that an artificial intelligence failure-mode catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves positive if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. It resolves ambiguous if an artificial intelligence global catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. The question resolves negative if a an artificial intelligence failure-mode induced global catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:30:47.301Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 273,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-11-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-06-15T22:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true, if it is proved by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n--- \n[Will a Millenium Prize problem be solved by 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/)\n--- \n[When will the next Millenium Prize problem be solved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/)\nThe [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) all have real part equal to . The Riemann zeta function also has zeroes at the strictly negative even integers , which are by definition its trivial zeroes. The hypothesis would therefore be correct if all zeroes of the Riemann zeta function other than these trivial zeroes had real part equal to .\nThe conjecture is significant because it implies the tightest possible error bounds on a wide range of estimates in analytic number theory, starting from the tight asymptotic for the prime counting function . It has now become standard practice to prove theorems of analytic number theory conditional on the Riemann hypothesis or some of its closely related generalizations.\nWill the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true by 2100?\nThis question will resolve positively if the Millennium Prize for the proof of the Riemann hypothesis is awarded before the resolve date of this question. It will resolve negatively if the Millennium Prize is awarded, according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), for the disproof of the Riemann hypothesis. It will resolve ambiguously if the Prize is not awarded for either achievement until the resolve date of the question, or if the Prize is awarded for a proof that the Riemann hypothesis is undecidable in ZFC set theory.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:41:22.818Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 79,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 1 October 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2240-will-the-powers-of-the-government-of-myanmar-cease-to-be-held-by-the-military-before-1-october-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "In 2021, the military (aka \"Defence Services\") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution, later extending their intended grip on power as various opposition groups fight to dislodge it ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/myanmar-will-tip-further-into-violence-and-misery), [Radio Free Asia](https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/detainees-01032022212032.html), [Myanmar Times](https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-announces-state-emergency.html)) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services \"shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary\" ([Myanmar Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Myanmar_2008.pdf?lang=en)). The question would close \"Yes\" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:01:20.923Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 199,
- "numforecasters": 148,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): \nThe main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. \nThe competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. \nBy contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_%28structure%29):\nA heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.\nA skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.\nWill either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?\nThis resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. \nThe payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. \nPositive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:41:41.910Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 108,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2044-01-02T02:57:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2045-07-02T01:57:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many incumbent U.S. Senators will be re-elected in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7254/How-many-incumbent-US-Senators-will-be-re-elected-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the number of individuals who hold a seat in the U.S. Senate on 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022 and are re-elected to that same seat in the 2022 general election (including any runoff elections, if necessary).\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "23 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.2815533980582524,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "24",
- "probability": 0.1941747572815534,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "25",
- "probability": 0.1553398058252427,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "26",
- "probability": 0.1553398058252427,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "27",
- "probability": 0.11650485436893203,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "28",
- "probability": 0.07766990291262135,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "29",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "30 or more",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:58:39.428Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 119168
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "23 or fewer, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a 50% decline in global meat production by 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7314/50by40-meat-production-goal-achieved/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Founded in 2018, [50by40](https://50by40.org/about-us/vision-and-mission) is an organisation with the mission to achieve \nA 50% reduction in the global production and consumption of farmed animal products by 2040, with the remaining production systems being environmentally and socially sustainable, regenerative and humane, achieved via a Just Transition of the farming system. \nThis question asks specifically about global meat production. [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/meat-production) claims global meat production in 2018 was 342.42 million tons, a 46.68% increase since 2000. A 50% reduction from this level would result in global meat production declining to 171.21 million tons, a level last seen in 1988.\nWill there be a 50% decline in global meat production by 2040?\nThis resolves positively if global meat production as per OurWorldInData is below 50% of its 2018 level (i.e., is 171.21 million tons or lower) in any year between 2019 and 2040 (inclusive). If OurWorldInData ceases publishing this data by this date, admins can choose a credible alternative source for resolution.\n14 June 2021 edit: Cultivated meat, which is produced from [in vitro cell culture of animal cells rather than from the slaughter of livestock](https://gfi.org/science/the-science-of-cultivated-meat/), does not count toward the overall global meat production figure. Only meat coming from slaughtered animals will count, as is currently the case with Our World's in Data figure of 340M tons as of 2018. Since this 340M tons figure does not include fish/seafood, data from [FAOSTAT as tracked by OWID](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/seafood-and-fish-production-thousand-tonnes?country=~OWID_WRL) — in this case, 155M tons of seafood/fish (2013 figure) — will be added to the meat figure. Again, cultivated fish/seafood does not count. This question will not resolve until 2040 data is available for both meat and fish/seafood production.\nIf OWID revises their 2018 estimate at any point, or an alternative source is to be used, that source's most up-to-date 2018 value should be used where possible to ensure an appropriate comparison. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:09:13.978Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 174,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2042-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the XENON1T experiment soon report a detection of dark matter or other new physics?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4670/will-the-xenon1t-experiment-soon-report-a-detection-of-dark-matter-or-other-new-physics/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A major goal of eperimental particle physics and cosmology is to identify the [dark matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_matter) pervading the universe. Foremost candidates for this matter are [WIMPS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weakly_interacting_massive_particles) and [axions](https://www.quantamagazine.org/why-dark-matter-might-be-axions-20191127/). An ongoing test for WIMP-nucleon scattering is [XENON1T](http://www.xenon1t.org/) in Italy, with a much higher sensitivity than [preceding experiments](http://www.nature.com/news/largest-ever-dark-matter-experiment-poised-to-test-popular-theory-1.18772); this dark matter detector is essentially a 3500 kilogram target of liquid Xenon sandwiched between two arrays of photomultiplier tubes. The arrays detect signals from scintillation and electron drift generated from particles scattering off Xenon nuclei, at which point known [backgrounds](http://arxiv.org/abs/1512.07501) will be subtracted out to get the WIMP signal. \nRecently, the XENON1T experiment disclosed that it has some interesting events in hand; see [preprint](https://www.science.purdue.edu/xenon1t/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/xenon1tlowersearches.pdf) and [popular article in Quanta](https://www.quantamagazine.org/dark-matter-experiment-finds-unexplained-signal-20200617/). These happened not in its search for WIMP dark matter, but in looking for axions. Per the Quanta article, \nAs the WIMP search kept coming up empty, XENON scientists realized several years ago that they could use their experiment to search for other kinds of unknown particles that might pass through the detector: particles that bang into an electron rather than a xenon nucleus.\nIn their new analysis, the physicists examined electronic recoils in the first year’s worth of XENON1T data. They expected to see roughly 232 of these recoils, caused by known sources of background contamination. But the experiment saw 285 — a surplus of 53 that signifies an unaccounted-for source.\nThere are two interesting hypotheses to explain these excesses, one boring one, and then of course \"other.\" The interesting ones are axions from the Sun, and a large neutrino magnetic moment. The boring one is contamination by tritium. According again to the article:\nLuckily the physics community won’t have to wait long for answers; XENON1T’s successor, the XENONnT experiment — which will monitor for recoils in 8.3 metric tons of xenon — is on track to begin data collection later this year. So we ask:\nWill the XENON1T or successor experiment soon announce detection of either type of physics beyond the standard model? \nResolution is positive if by the end of 2022, a paper or preprint is published including results by XENON1T (likely in combination with additional results from XENONnT or elsewhere) claiming or better evidence for either solar axions or a large neutrino magnetic moment. Resolution is negative otherwise.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:08:21.482Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By April 2023, will the European Union approve cultivated meat for human consumption?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8845/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-eu/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On November 26, 2020, Singapore became the first country to [approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/). The European Union is seen by many as the Singapore´s possible successor.\n[As Techspoon](https://thespoon.tech/europe-the-u-s-israel-which-country-might-be-next-to-approve-cultured-meat/) states:\n\"The European Commission has a clearly defined process for bringing cultured meat to market that is known as [Novel Food authorization](https://ec.europa.eu/food/safety/novel_food/authorisations_en). For example, Mosa Meat, based in the Netherlands, has said [it is focusing on Singapore and Europe](https://agfundernews.com/mosa-meat-ceo-maarten-bosch-on-choosing-non-gmo-partnering-for-expansion-and-choosing-beef.html) for its first launches, specifically citing Europe’s Novel Food authorizations as a reason. Europe is also home to many other cultured meat companies, including Blue Biosciences, Mirai, and CellulaREvolution.\" \nOn the other hand, the European approval process is very complicated. The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA)’s risk assessment process alone takes nine months. Thus we ask:\nBy April 2023, will the European Union approve cultivated meat for human consumption?\nThis question resolves positively if the European Union approves at least one cultivated meat product for human consumption (or issues a more general approval for a class of cultivated meat products) before April 1, 2023. The question resolves positively even if the approval is later rescinded. An approval at the EU level is necessary for positive resolution, approval at individual state level is not sufficient, even if all the EU members individually issued such approvals.\nFor a product to be deemed a \"cultivated meat product\", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).\nResolution is by credible news source, reports from regulators, or statements by relevant cultivated meat companies.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:14:18.040Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-13T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/211/stage-3-trials-of-mdma-as-a-medical-treatment/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "3,4-methylenedioxy-methamphetamine is [MDMA](http://www.drugs.com/illicit/mdma.html) - commonly called ecstasy, molly, or X. MDMA has a [storied history](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MDMA#History) beginning from its synthesis in 1912, to its use in psychotherapy in the '60s and its advent into recreational use in popular culture. While being a [Schedule I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act#Schedule_I_controlled_substances) substance in the U.S., and in general a legally controlled substance around the world, [it's argued](https://www.aclu.org/news/court-rejects-harsh-federal-drug-sentencing-guideline-scientifically-unjustified?redirect=criminal-law-reform/court-rejects-harsh-federal-drug-sentencing-guideline-scientifically-unjustified) the classification is based on outdated science and that the drug is over-criminalized. \nMDMA chiefly acts as a releasing agent for serotonin, norepinephrine, and dopamine; [here's how it works](https://www.drugabuse.gov/publications/teaching-packets/neurobiology-ecstasy/section-ii/1-how-does-ecstasy-work-serotonin-pathways-in-brain). It's taken recreationally to induce euphoria, sociability, relaxation, heightened sensation and sexuality, but also brings on short-term effects like dehydration and nausea, and potential long-term effects like paranoia and addiction. However, evidence for the true extent of harm from MDMA [isn't rock-solid](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26746590/?i=16&from=MDMA) and it appears that side-effects can be mitigated through moderate usage and dosing. There is a body of evidence for the efficacy of MDMA-assisted psychiatric treatment, and [many advocate](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3931692/) that more research to evaluate MDMA's usefulness in this regard.\nNon-profit [MAPS](http://www.maps.org/research/mdma), the Multidisciplinary Association for Psychedelic Studies, is the only organization with funding in MDMA clinical trials to assist in the treatment of PTSD and social anxiety in autistic adults. MAPS is [pushing for FDA approval](http://www.businessinsider.com/ecstacy-legalization-2015-10) of a medically available MDMA, and they are poised to enter [phase 3](https://www.nlm.nih.gov/services/ctphases.html) clinical trials in 2017. This is the last stage of research which will address the safety and effectiveness of the drug, and they are looking at trials in 200-400 people over the next 4-5 years. Their findings, if successful, are expected for submission to the FDA for approval in 2021. However, [the organization says it needs about $20 million to complete the trials.](http://thescienceexplorer.com/brain-and-body/mdma-could-be-sold-legal-fda-approved-drug-just-5-years) At that point, the results can go to the FDA to assess MDMA as a legal medical drug. Will this happen?\nThis question will resolve positively if by Jan 1st, 2021, the MDMA stage 3 trial is complete, with the results and an official application submitted to the FDA toward medical approval.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:08:07.367Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 186,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-04-10T03:32:13Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the 1970s Gerard K. O’Neill wrote and published his seminal work, [The High Frontier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_High_Frontier:_Human_Colonies_in_Space#cite_note-3). In it O’Neill first paints a picture of habitats floating in space, with people living on the insides of cylinders kilometres long, and then describes how one could accomplish this from an engineering perspective with the Space Shuttle, then still in the planning stages.\nThe Shuttle turned out to be more expensive and less reusable than it was optimistically lauded to be, but it stands to reason: where are the space settlements? Certainly not in low earth orbit.\nBut they don’t have to be. [What once pushed the envelope of the technically feasible is now well established as doable](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/). The [Mir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir) was an initially Soviet, later Russian space station from 1986–1996, crewed for almost ten years. The [International Space Station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station) took 12 years to construct and has been crewed since November 2000. By the time it too will be decomissioned almost a whole generation will have passed since the first crew boarded it. \nESA wants to build a [moon village](https://www.esa.int/About_Us/Ministerial_Council_2016/Moon_Village), while [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/deep-space-gateway-to-open-opportunities-for-distant-destinations) (and [Elon Musk](https://www.spacex.com/mars)) aim for Mars. These are certainly lofty goals, but:\nWill humans have sustainable settlements off Earth by 2100?\nThis question will resolve positively if there is a settlement(s) off-Earth with over 2,000 5+ year residents that are [self-sufficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-sustainability) in production of energy and foodstuffs.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:22:32.429Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 712,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-16T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6420/matt-levine-to-join-substack/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Matt Levine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Levine_%28columnist%29) is a popular finance writer:\nMatt Levine is a columnist for Bloomberg News covering finance and business.[1] Levine has previously been a lawyer, investment banker, law clerk, and has written for a number of newspapers and financial sites.[2][3] His newsletter, Money Stuff, is one of the most popular on Wall Street with over 150k subscribers.\nWill Matt Levine join substack before 2023?\nThis resolves positively if Matt Levine has joined Substack and made at least one post before 2023, and negatively otherwise.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:42:16.728Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 87,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T18:28:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T18:28:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/512/will-an-ai-system-do-credibly-well-on-a-full-math-sat-exam-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Humans have devised many ways of assessing other humans' intelligence, and forcing people to participate in such measures. University entrance exams are one of the most familiar, inflicted on countless high school students each year as standardized measures of academic competence and promise. Recently, these exams have begun the target of AI and machine learning projects.\nAccording to a [report by Engadget](https://www.engadget.com/2016/11/16/japanese-ai-tokyo-university-fail/), Japan’s National Institute of Informatics had been working on an AI since 2011 with the final objective of passing the entrance exam for the University of Tokyo, tentatively by March 2022. However, a recent [report](https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/japanese-artificial-intelligence-gives-up-on-university-of-tokyo-admissions-exam/) has revealed that the institute will be terminating the project because of its AI's inability to fully understand the broad context of the entrance exam questions.\nMore recently, on September 21, 2015, the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (AI2) [announced in a paper](http://geometry.allenai.org/assets/emnlp2015.pdf) that it created an AI system called [GeoS](http://geometry.allenai.org/) that can solve SAT geometry questions \"as well as the average 11th-grade American student.\" According to [this story](http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/09/150921095150.htm) GeoS \"uses a combination of computer vision to interpret diagrams, natural language processing to read and understand text, and a geometric solver to achieve 49 percent accuracy on geometry questions from the official SAT tests. If these results were extrapolated to the entire Math SAT test, the computer roughly achieved an SAT score of 500 (out of 800), the average test score for 2015.\" Although AI2 initially focused GeoS on solving plane geometry questions, it hopes to move to solve the full set of Math SAT questions by 2018.\nThis is not an easy feat; however it may be significantly more difficult to actually do decently well on such an exam, including all sections. We ask:\nBy end of 2025, will an AI system achieve the equivalent of 75th percentile on the full mathematics section of an SAT exam comparable to those circa 2015? \nResolution is by credible media report or published paper. The system must be given only page images, and trained on exams that do not include any questions from the scored test. Exams will count as long as the topics and difficulty is broadly comparable to the 2015 exams.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:12:06.545Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 716,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-08-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year.\nIf Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?\nThis question resolves:\n---Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:18:25.950Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 307,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-05-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for July 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2168-how-many-job-openings-in-the-us-will-the-bureau-of-labor-statistics-bls-report-for-july-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Labor shortages continue throughout the US, with the number of job openings above 10 million for the third consecutive month in August 2021 ([FOX Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/retailers-forecast-disappointing-holiday-season-labor-shortage), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/business-459c0884721a213985cdf0185a1176f8)). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2022 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the BLS for July 2022, expected in September 2022 ([BLS - JOLTS](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/jolts.htm)). For July 2021, the number of job openings for \"Total US\" was 11,098 (in thousands) ([JOLTS - August 2021](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/jolts_10122021.pdf), see Table A). For historical data, visit: https://www.bls.gov/jlt/. Under \"JOLTS Databases,\" select \"ONE SCREEN\" from \"Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).\" For \"1 Select one or more Industries,\" select \"Total nonfarm.\" For \"2 Select one or more States or Regions,\" find and select \"Total US.\" For \"3 Select one or more Areas,\" select \"All Areas.\" For \"4 Select one or more Data Elements,\" find and select \"Job openings.\" For \"5 Select one or more Size Classes,\" find and select \"All size classes.\" For \"6 Select Rate and/or Level,\" leave only \"Level - In Thousands\" checked. For \"7 Select Seasonal Adjustment,\" leave only \"Seasonally Adjusted\" checked, then click \"Get Data.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 6 million",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 6 million and 7 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 7 million but fewer than 8 million",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 8 million and 9 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 9 million but fewer than 10 million",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 10 million and 11 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 11 million",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:03:36.093Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 216,
- "numforecasters": 113,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 6 million, Between 6 million and 7 million, inclusive, More than 7 million but fewer than 8 million, Between 8 million and 9 million, inclusive, More than 9 million but fewer than 10 million, Between 10 million and 11 million, inclusive, More than 11 million"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron win the 2022 French presidential election?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-emmanuel-macron-win-the-2022-french-presidential-election",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Emmanuel Macron is the winner of the 2022 French Presidential election.\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that if no election occurs in 2022, then all brackets will resolve “No”.\nThe first round of the 2022 French presidential election will be held on 10 April 2022. Should no candidate win a majority of the vote in the first round, a runoff will be held between the top two candidates on 24 April 2022.\nThe main resolution sources for this market will be https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/ and https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/, however credible media reports will also be used.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.7532661029684328314037488193335879",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.2467338970315671685962511806664121",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.517Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "44",
- "liquidity": "1063.17",
- "tradevolume": "1079.76",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x2B64D113a50110A3DbA5Ca52657229F3f3012612"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Texas Democratic lieutenant governor nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7686/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-Democratic-lieutenant-governor-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Lieutenant Governor of Texas.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Mike Collier",
- "probability": 0.7722772277227723,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Michelle Beckley",
- "probability": 0.19801980198019803,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Carla Brailey",
- "probability": 0.0297029702970297,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:06:40.439Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 3719
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Mike Collier, Michelle Beckley, Carla Brailey"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8752/will-omicron-be-classified-a-vohc-by-cdc/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On 25 November, South Africa [announced](https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2021/11/25/recording-briefing-on-covid-19-and-vaccination-programme-developments-25-november-2021/) that it was tracking a new variant, B.1.1.529/Omicron, and shared the following:\n---New variant detected in South Africa (lineage B.1.1.529) with high number of mutations, which are concerning for predicted immune evasion and transmissibility \n---B.1.1.529 genomes produced from samples collected 12-20 Nov from Gauteng, SA (n=77), Botswana (n=4) and Hong Kong (n=1, traveler from SA) \n---B.1.1.529 can be detected by one particular PCR assay (before whole genome sequencing) \n---Early signs from diagnostic laboratories that B.1.1.529 has rapidly increased in Gauteng and may already be present in most provinces \n---Mutation profile predicted to give significant immune evasion and enhanced transmissibility \nSee also [these](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1036501/Technical_Briefing_29_published_26_November_2021.pdf) [three](https://assets.uzleuven.be/files/2021-11/genomic_surveillance_update_211126.pdf) [assessments](https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-%28b.1.1.529%29-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern) by the UK HSA, Belgian NRL, and WHO respectively.\nThe U.S. CDC currently defines [four classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fvariant-surveillance%2Fvariant-info.html): variants being monitored, variants of interest, variants of concern, and variants of high consequence. \nOf these, variant of high consequence (VOHC) is the most severe classification. A VOHC is a variant that [“has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.”](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fvariant-surveillance%2Fvariant-info.html) \nMoreover, a VOHC might have the following attributes:\n---Demonstrated failure of diagnostic test targets \n---Evidence to suggest a significant reduction in vaccine effectiveness, a disproportionately high number of infections in vaccinated persons, or very low vaccine-induced protection against severe disease \n---Significantly reduced susceptibility to multiple Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) or approved therapeutics \n---More severe clinical disease and increased hospitalizations \nTo date, no SARS-CoV-2 variant has been classified as a VOHC.\nWill the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive if, before 2023, the Omicron variant is categorized under the “Variant of High Consequence” section on the CDC’s [SARS-CoV-2 Variant Classifications and Definitions page](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fvariant-surveillance%2Fvariant-info.html).\nThank you to [Nathan Young](https://twitter.com/NathanpmYoung), [Clay Graubard](https://twitter.com/ClayGraubard), [David Manheim](https://twitter.com/davidmanheim), [Philipp Schoenegger](https://twitter.com/schoeneggerphil), and [Edward Saperia](https://twitter.com/edsaperia) for their question suggestions and input. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:10:48.941Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 269,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-27T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-10-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel by 2031 if Iran gets a nuclear bomb by then?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8110/saudi-israel-normalization-if-iran-bomb/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2020, Israel [normalized](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords) relations with the [United Arab Emirates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93United_Arab_Emirates_relations), [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain%E2%80%93Israel_normalization_agreement), and [Morocco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Morocco_normalization_agreement) in the [Abraham Accords](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords). This comes in the face of [increasing cooperation](https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-new-us-israel-uae-india-minilateral-in-a-changing-west-asia/) between the United States, Israel, and the Gulf countries who all face a threat from Iran and [have](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran#United_States_views) [expressed](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210927-iran-s-nuclear-program-has-crossed-all-red-lines-israel-pm-1) [concern](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-nuclear-activity-is-concerning-says-saudi-official-2021-07-09/) about Iran's nuclear program. A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6646/sa-israel-to-establish-diplomatic-relations/) asked if Saudi Arabia would normalize relations with Israel in 2021.\nWill Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel by 2031 if Iran gets a nuclear bomb by then?\nIf [the Iran nuke question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/) resolves positively (i.e. the Iranian Regime credibly states it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports), then this question will resolve positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the State of Israel is legally recognized by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia before 2031-01-01, and negatively otherwise. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. If [the Iran nuke question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/) resolves negatively or ambiguously, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:39:08.911Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the significant discrepancies in Hubble parameter determinations be resolved by 2030 within the ΛCDM standard cosmological model?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3021/will-the-significant-discrepancies-in-hubble-parameter-determinations-be-resolved-by-2030-within-the-%25CE%25BBcdm-standard-cosmological-model/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Hubble \"constant\", , is basically the current expansion rate of the universe (the expansion rate varies with time). Two main ways to [determine the value of ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble%27s_law#Measured_values_of_the_Hubble_constant) are based on different approaches contrasting early universe vs late universe methodologies. The issue is that the values determined by these two independent methods have now widened to the point where there is a significant statistical difference of approximately 4 to 5 sigma between the two, despite the increasing precision of each method's results over time. This difference is now widely considered among experts as having become a problem for the [ΛCDM standard model of cosmology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambda-CDM_model) (or even, among some, as a crisis). Continuing observational projects and theoretical work have been dedicated at attempts to understand and resolve the discrepancy.\nA mid-July 2019 [workshop at the Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics at UCSB](https://www.kitp.ucsb.edu/activities/enervac-c19) was convened to bring together both experimental and theoretical researchers in the field to review and assess the current state of affairs and identify promising next steps at resolution. The coordinators for this event drafted a paper [Tensions between the Early and the Late Universe](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10625) summarizing the event proceedings. An image from this paper plotting the different values determined by the various methods is [at this link](https://i.imgur.com/iDBM8hD.jpg). \nVideos and slides of the talks are available [at this conference website link](http://online.kitp.ucsb.edu/online/enervac-c19/). There are also a number of excellent recent science media articles about this issue, e.g. (in descending published date order) by [Natalie Wolchover](https://www.quantamagazine.org/cosmologists-debate-how-fast-the-universe-is-expanding-20190808/), [Emily Conover](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/debate-universe-expansion-rate-hubble-constant-physics-crisis), [Josh Sokol](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/07/debate-intensifies-over-speed-expanding-universe), and [Davide Castelvecchi](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02198-z). There is also a [twitter hashtag](https://twitter.com/search?q=kitp_h0ttakes&src=typed_query&f=live) devoted to the workshop activity with, e.g., some of the participants tweeting their live reactions during the workshop.\nSome examples of areas under investigation for a possible eventual resolution include: (a) identifying and correcting systematic errors in the various determination methods, (b) an [early dark energy](https://arxiv.org/abs/1811.04083) injection prior to recombination, (c) [nonstandard neutrino physics](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.00534), (d) gravity modifications, and in general (e) searching for a discovery of new physics that modifies or replaces the current [ΛCDM standard model of cosmology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambda-CDM_model). As an overview for possible ways forward, a new paper, [The Hubble Hunter's Guide](https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.03663), attempts \"to consider the broadest possible set of potential cosmological solutions to reconcile\" the opposing observations.\nThe question asks:\nBy 01-Jan-2030, will the source(s) of the current tension in H0 results be resolved without a need to replace the ΛCDM standard cosmological model?\nA [criteria that was suggested for determining consensus on a resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3021/will-the-significant-discrepancies-in-the-measured-values-of-the-hubble-constant-h_0-be-resolved-by-2030/#comment-15872) is to poll researchers working on this issue near the question close date, asking what sigma they ascribe to the discrepancy, assuming ΛCDM. A positive resolution results if the mean of replies by at least 5 polled cosmologists is < 2 sigma. A mean of > 4 sigma resolves as negative; between 2 and 3 is an indeterminate resolution. \nFootnote: Examples of early universe methods - Planck, DES+BAO+BBN versus late time methods - SH0ES, CCHP, H0LiCOW, MIRAS, Megamasers, Surface Brightness Fluctuations. See [this graphic](https://i.imgur.com/iDBM8hD.jpg) for an illustrative plot of the differences. More information on these methods is in the [conference summary paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10625). Note that by 2030, H_0 determinations from [gravitational wave standard sirens](https://arxiv.org/abs/1812.07775) is likely to have become a robust late time method.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:37:55.264Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-18T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7127/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "John Fetterman",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Conor Lamb",
- "probability": 0.3660714285714285,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Malcolm Kenyatta",
- "probability": 0.08035714285714285,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Madeleine Dean",
- "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joe Sestak",
- "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Kenney",
- "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chrissy Houlahan",
- "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sharif Street",
- "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Valerie Arkoosh",
- "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:56:06.227Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 789716
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "John Fetterman, Conor Lamb, Malcolm Kenyatta, Madeleine Dean, Joe Sestak, Jim Kenney, Chrissy Houlahan, Sharif Street, Valerie Arkoosh"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Maryland Democratic attorney general nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7694/Who-will-win-the-2022-Maryland-Democratic-attorney-general-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Attorney General of Maryland.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Anthony G. Brown",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Katie O'Malley",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Luke Clippinger",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brian Feldman",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Frank Kratovil",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "April Delaney",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:07:00.453Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 460
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Anthony G. Brown, Katie O'Malley, Luke Clippinger, Brian Feldman, Frank Kratovil, April Delaney"
- },
- {
- "title": "At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2783/at-the-end-of-2023-will-animal-charity-evaluators-recommend-a-charity-working-on-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-as-a-top-charity/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Animal Charity Evaluators (ACE) is an organisation that reviews animal welfare charities in order to recommend the most cost-effective organisations to donate to. Charities that they evaluate as having a good track record, room for more funding, and high estimated cost-effectiveness are put on a shortlist of [top charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/), of which there are currently four.\nOne of the cause areas that they evaluate organisations working in and consider to be high-priority is [reducing wild animal suffering](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/advocacy-interventions/prioritizing-causes/causes-we-consider/#reducing-wild-animal-suffering). ACE [currently lists](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/all-charity-reviews/#filter=.wild-animal-suffering) two charities that they have considered and that are working this cause area; of these, Animal Ethics was considered a standout charity from 2015-2017, but none have ever been top charities.\nAt the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators list an organisation with a review status of \"Top Charity\" and a type of work of \"Reducing Wild Animal Suffering\"?\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.18999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:35:11.362Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 182,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-06T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-01T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-01T11:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/645/will-united-launch-alliancess-vulcan-rocket-fly-by-2023-aka-will-elon-musk-eat-his-hat-with-a-side-of-mustard/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "After a stunning success with the Falcon Heavy, Elon Musk is taking aim at his rivals in the rocketry business. In a brisk back-and-forth with [on twitter](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/963076231921938432), upon the suggestion that [United Launch Alliance](https://www.ulalaunch.com) (ULA)'s upcoming [\"Vulcan\" rocket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vulcan_%28rocket%29) would be carrying payloads in the early 2020s, Musk responded:\nMaybe that plan works out, but I will seriously eat my hat with a side of mustard if that rocket flies a national security spacecraft before 2023.\nThis taunt seems calculated to help push a space race, which Musk has publicly acknowledged is a goal of his.\nWe'll play along, and ask:\nBy Jan 1 2023, will a rocket built by ULA and named Vulcan (or be the project that \"Vulcan\" is currently referring to) be launched with a spacecraft related to US (or other nation) national security? \nFor positive resolution the launch/deployment need not be successful, and \"National Security\" can be interpreted somewhat broadly.\nIn case of positive resolution we can ask a followup question as to whether Musk actually eats a hat.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:14:52.354Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 190,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-02-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-05-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Dubai's EXPO 2020 attract 25 million visits?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2131-will-dubai-s-expo-2020-attract-25-million-visits",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The six-month EXPO 2020, initially delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic, is scheduled for 1 October 2021 through 31 March 2022 ([EXPO2020](https://www.expo2020dubai.com/), [Yahoo](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/middle-easts-first-expo-open-110725927.html), [The National](https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/expo-2020/2021/09/19/superstars-to-open-expo-2020-dubai-with-big-bang/)). Virtual visits would not count. The question will be suspended on 31 March 2022 and the outcome determined using final data when available.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:04:39.919Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 227,
- "numforecasters": 83,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be the 2022 Colorado Republican Senate nominee?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7549/Who-will-be-the-2022-Colorado-Republican-Senate-nominee",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for United States Senator from Colorado.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Eli Bremer",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Cory Gardner",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Deborah Flora",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ron Hanks",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Cooke",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Darryl Glenn",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Patrick Neville",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Erik Aadland",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Peter Yu",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:02:19.411Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 12281
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Eli Bremer, Cory Gardner, Deborah Flora, Ron Hanks, John Cooke, Darryl Glenn, Patrick Neville, Erik Aadland, Peter Yu"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7215/sec-approves-bitcoin-etf/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Several proposals for bitcoin ETFs have been submitted to the SEC over the last 5 years, but the SEC has not approved any of them yet.\nClosed-end funds like GBTC already exist, their price does not accurately track bitcoin due to the lack of any share creation/redemption mechanism for market makers to arbitrage the difference in price between the fund and the underlying commodity.\nSince retail investors can already buy GBTC, which approximately tracks bitcoin but with additional random fluctuations superimposed, I can't think of any plausible consumer-protection argument for the SEC to deny the right to convert it to an ETF, which wouldn't also be a fully generic argument against all ETFs (e.g., assuming that the market makers' profits come at the expense of the users)\nWill the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?\nAn ETF of equities of companies that own bitcoin, like Microstrategy, Square, and Coinbase, would not be sufficient for a yes resolution. Only an ETF that puts >95% of its NAV into bitcoin would count.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:06:20.646Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 179,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-02-20T08:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-21T01:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4934/will-freeton-cryptocurrency-project-be-successful/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Telegram Open Network was a cryptocurrency project that would allow to make transactions within Telegram messenger. It was [cancelled](https://www.interactivecrypto.com/telegram-cancels-telegram-open-network-and-grams-project) after a lawsuit initiated by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) in the USA.\nAfter that, a group of developers [forked](https://cryptopotato.com/free-ton-forks-to-decentralized-independence-in-telegram-token-sales-departure/) the project under name [FreeTON](https://freeton.org/) to develop it independently from Telegram messenger.\nWill the FreeTON project be successful and widely used for online payments?\nThis question will resolve positively if there will be at least 50 online shops that accept FreeTON at the resolution date, or if there will be publically available data from trusted online source showing that total amount of payments with FreeTON is more than $1M per month at the resolution date. Otherwise, the question will resolve negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:14:18.578Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-08-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will France have a higher COVID-19 Case Average per capita than the US, Italy, and Spain on March 1st?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-france-have-a-higher-covid-19-case-average-per-capita-than-the-us-italy-and-spain-on-march-1st",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if France has a higher COVID-19 Case Average per capita than the US, Italy, and Spain on March 1, 2022 and “No” otherwise. The resolution source will be OurWorldInData; https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?facet=none&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&country=FRA~USA~ITA~ESP&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Color+by+test+positivity=false. The source will be checked daily starting from March 2, 8 PM ET until data is available for the day of March 1. If data is unavailable on the source by March 11, 8 PM ET, https://covid19.who.int/ will be used instead.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.7519871388465942442336156354268082",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.2480128611534057557663843645731918",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.517Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "141",
- "liquidity": "994.25",
- "tradevolume": "4615.89",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x6aBD1Bf575cC071B551f0347Bfd95dd704C971a9"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the 7-day COVID-19 Case average in the USA be above 500,000 on February 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-in-the-usa-be-above-500000-on-february-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA is above 500,000 on February 1, 2022, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases. The source will be checked on February 8, 2022, 8 PM ET.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.002320215373573763285338396441246509",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9976797846264262367146616035587535",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.517Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "288",
- "liquidity": "75.42",
- "tradevolume": "52489.10",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x602995f364ab410f1E75Aa8aab9522902e3c1969"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Resolution of the Density Conjecture for Newton's N-body problem",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/523/resolution-to-the-proximity-conjecture-for-dynamical-systems/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Suggested by [Richard Montgomery](https://www.math.ucsc.edu/faculty-research/singleton.php?&singleton=true&cruz_id=rmont), UCSC\nThe motion of the point masses in a [gravitational N-body system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N-body_problem) is \"bounded\" if all the inter-body distances remain less than some fixed constant for all time. For example, periodic solutions, such as these [engaging trajectories](http://www.maths.manchester.ac.uk/~jm/Choreographies/), are bounded. A solution is unbounded if some inter-body distance tends to infinity, meaning that some body or cluster of bodies \"escapes to infinity''. \nDensity Conjecture: In arbitrarily close proximity to the initial conditions for any bounded solution, lies an initial condition whose solution is unbounded.\nIn section 7 of his 1998 [invited lecture](https://www.emis.de/mirror/ICM98/B/3/9/) at the International Congress of Mathematicians, [Michael Herman](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Herman_%28mathematician%29) brought wide attention to the Density conjecture, and called it \"The Oldest Open Problem in Dynamical Systems\". He asserted that Newton \"certainly believed\" the conjecture, having invoked God as the source of control for the instabilities of the N-body problem. For further detail on the problem see section 14.2 of [this reference](http://www.bourbaphy.fr/chenciner.pdf)\nLike many simply stated problems in mathematics, the Proximity Conjecture has proved maddeningly difficult to assess. In Christian Marchal's [influential book](https://www.amazon.com/Three-Body-Problem-C-Marchal/dp/0444566988) on the three-body problem, he assumes fairly explicitly, but without proof, that the answer is true, essentially appealing to the idea that given sufficient time, \"everything that can happen, will happen\". The [KAM theorem](http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Kolmogorov-Arnold-MoserTheorem.html) moreover, asserts that for every \"good periodic\" solution, there is a set of positive measure of solutions which stay close to that solution for all time, and hence are bounded. These solutions form the KAM torii. There exist, however, lots of \"holes\" in the torii. [Arnol'd diffusion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arnold_diffusion) is a class of mechanisms, exploiting resonances, by which one can \"wander\" from hole to hole and thereby eventually escape to infinity. So far, the main approach to proving the Density Conjecture has involved efforts to show that Arnol'd diffusion is ubiquitous. \nWill the Density Conjecture be proved true for the planar 3-body problem in the next 10 years? \nResolution is positive if a proof of a theorem to which the above description applies with reasonable accuracy is published by Sept. 1, 2027. Additionally, if the conjecture is proved for the planar three body problem with particular (all nonzero) mass ratios, resolution will also be positive. Finally, the question resolves negative if a negative proof or counterexample is found prior to the resolution date, or if no proof is published at all.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:12:17.287Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 141,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-08-28T12:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-08-30T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-08-30T12:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the price of Polygon ($MATIC) be on March 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-price-of-polygon-matic-be-on-march-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a scalar market on what the price of Polygon ($MATIC) will be on March 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. The lower bound for this market is $0.80, and the upper bound is $3.20. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the coin’s listed price on its official CoinGecko page https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/polygon. This market will resolve according to the “C” (aka closing price) listed for the candle titled “Tue 01 March 2022, 12:00:00”, with the “Price” tab selected, in the Eastern Time Zone. Note, this 12:00:00 candle lists the opening price for 11:30:00 AM ET and the closing price for 12:00:00 PM ET. To allow for updates, this market will resolve on the number listed for the referenced candle at exactly 12:25:00 PM ET, on the resolution day. (To see the candlestick close price, click the candlestick icon, and observe the number after the “C:” when you hover over a candlestick for a given time period.) \n\nYou can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short Token price corresponds with the relevant cryptocurrency’s price. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value’s position within the upper and lower bound, if the final value is between these bounds. But if the final outcome value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Token is capped at $1 and $0.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Long",
- "probability": "0.4620012486544002801187430374566746",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Short",
- "probability": "0.5379987513455997198812569625433254",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.517Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "92",
- "liquidity": "1000.00",
- "tradevolume": "1634.36",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x576Eaf8Fd5F2FdE0F97cbA58e0ACa75A7a1c8f1F"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Long, Short"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3528/will-a-geoengineering-act-of-congress-become-us-federal-law-by-the-end-of-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al. 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf). Geoengineering involves the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, or attempts at reflecting more energy away from the planet to counter warming [(Markusson et al., 2013)](http://geoengineering-governance-research.org/perch/resources/workingpaper5markusson-et-algeinccwikipediadataset.pdf). Geoengineering is often presented as a complement, and sometimes alternative, to climate mitigation and adaptation.\nThere are serious and complex governance issues which need to be resolved if geoengineering is ever to become an acceptable method for moderating climate change. It would be highly undesirable for irreversible global geoengineering to occur before appropriate governance mechanisms are in place. The Royal Society has published a set of geoengineering governance principles, known as The Oxford Principles, which aims to guide the collaborative development of geoengineering governance, from the earliest stages of research, to any eventual deployment. These principles are:\n---Principle 1: Geoengineering is to be regulated as a public good \n---Principle 2: The public should participate in geoengineering decision-making \n---Principle 3: Geoengineering research and results should be publicly disclosed \n---Principle 4: There should be independent assessments of the impacts \n---Principle 5: governance systems should be developed before geoengineering methods are deployed \nAs of September 2019, two geoengineering bills and one resolution have been introduced in Congress. These bills are the following:\n1-- \n[Geoengineering Research Evaluation Act of 2017](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/4586?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%22%5C%22Climate+engineering%5C%22+%5C%22geoengineering%5C%22+%5C%22Solar+radiation+management%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%5C%22+%5C%22Marine+cloud+brightening%5C%22+%5C%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%5C%22%22%7D&s=3&r=1). This bill recommends a research agenda for advancing understanding of [albedo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albedo) modification strategies that involve atmospheric interventions, such as cloud modification; and a report that provides specific guidance on the governance mechanisms for the proposed research agenda.\n2-- \n[American Clean Energy Leadership Act of 2009](https://www.congress.gov/bill/111th-congress/senate-bill/1462?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%22%5C%22Climate+engineering%5C%22+%5C%22geoengineering%5C%22+%5C%22Solar+radiation+management%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%5C%22+%5C%22Marine+cloud+brightening%5C%22+%5C%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%5C%22%22%7D&s=2&r=2). This bill requires the Secretary of Energy to establish an Advisory Committee on Geosciences and Geoengineering Education to advise the Secretary in education and training in the subsurface geosciences and engineering.\nNeither the Geoengineering Research Evaluation Act of 2017 nor the American Clean Energy Leadership Act of 2009 became legislation. So far, the U.S. has not enacted legislation that are explicitly related to geoengineering. \nWill a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if a geoengineering bill that is introduced in the House of Representatives and/or the Senate is subsequently enacted as legislation (by being signed by the U.S. president, or through other means) before or on 31/12/2024. For the purpose of this question, a geoengineering bill is any bill reported by the relevant [Congress website search](https://www.congress.gov/quick-search/legislation?wordsPhrases=%22Climate+engineering%22+OR+%22geoengineering%22+OR+%22Solar+radiation+management%22+OR+%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%22+OR+%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%22+OR+%22Marine+cloud+brightening%22+OR+%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%22&include=on&wordVariants=on&titles=on&summaries=on&actions=on&congresses%5B0%5D=all&legislationNumbers=&legislativeAction=&sponsor=on&representative=&senator=&searchResultViewType=expanded&q=%7B%22bill-status%22%3A%22introduced%22%2C%22type%22%3A%22all%22%7D). This search involves the following terms:\n\"Climate engineering\" OR \"geoengineering\" OR \"Solar radiation management\" OR \"Stratospheric Particle Injection\" OR \"Stratospheric aerosol injection\" OR \"Marine cloud brightening\" OR \"Ocean sulfur cycle enhancement\"\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:51:44.872Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 68,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-29T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of Canadians will report having ever visited their health care provider virtually online by video, according to the 2022 Canadian Digital Health Survey?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2193-what-percentage-of-canadians-will-report-having-ever-visited-their-health-care-provider-virtually-online-by-video-according-to-the-2022-canadian-digital-health-survey",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Canada Health Infoway conducts the annual Canadian Digital Health Survey to track various metrics and solicit feedback from Canadians ([Infoway - Digital Health Survey](https://insights.infoway-inforoute.ca/digital-health-survey)). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2022 and the outcome determined using the results of the 2022 Canadian Digital Health Survey, expected to be made in the summer of 2022 and released later, as displayed on the infographics. In 2021, the percentage of survey respondents (Canadians over the age of 16) who reported that they had ever visited their health care provider virtually online by video was 17% ([Infoway - Virtual Visits](https://insights.infoway-inforoute.ca/virtual_visits/), see \"Use of Virtual Visits (VIDEO)\").\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 17%",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 17% and 20%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 20% but less than 25%",
- "probability": 0.46,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "25% or more",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:02:44.171Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 101,
- "numforecasters": 41,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 17%, Between 17% and 20%, inclusive, More than 20% but less than 25%, 25% or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Does the MMR (measles, mumps, and rubella) vaccine cause autism?",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/does-the-mmr-measles-mumps-and-rubella-vaccine-cause-autism-4925",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "The number of autism cases has increased significantly in the past few decades, from approximately [1 in 2,500 children](http://www.whilesciencesleeps.com/pdf/600.pdf) in 1966 to [1 in 68](http://www.cdc.gov/ncbddd/autism/data.html) in 2016. The increase in the number of autism cases is attributed in part to [improved screening and broadening of the diagnostic criteria](http://www.whilesciencesleeps.com/pdf/600.pdf).\nThe alleged association between the MMR (measles, mumps and rubella) vaccine and autism began in 1998, when Andrew Wakefield and several coauthors published a research paper in The Lancet, a leading British medical journal, suggesting a link between them. Wakefield's findings caused great concern among parents in the UK and the US and[ led to a significant drop in vaccinations](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wH1obrIZ54k&feature=youtu.be&t=350) of children. Numerous subsequent studies have failed to support an association between the administration of the vaccine and autism spectrum disorder. Beginning in 2004, British investigative journalist Brian Deer wrote several articles accusing Wakefield of concealing conflicts of interest, manipulating evidence, and other unethical research practices. In 2010 The Lancet [retracted Wakefield's study](http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2810%2960175-4/abstract) after several elements in the study were found to be "incorrect, contrary to the findings of an earlier investigation."\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "The MMR vaccine does not cause autism.",
- "probability": 0.9989448582556197,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The MMR vaccine does cause autism in a measurable number of cases, and the health organizations and pharmaceutical companies are deliberately covering it up. ",
- "probability": 0.00092438670468488,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The MMR vaccine does cause autism in a measurable number of cases, but the health organizations and pharmaceutical companies haven't established this causal relationship yet.",
- "probability": 0.00013075503969541352,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:09:13.892Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "The MMR vaccine does not cause autism., The MMR vaccine does cause autism in a measurable number of cases, and the health organizations and pharmaceutical companies are deliberately covering it up. , The MMR vaccine does cause autism in a measurable number of cases, but the health organizations and pharmaceutical companies haven't established this causal relationship yet."
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev either flee Kazakhstan or cease to be its president before 7 July 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2241-will-kassym-jomart-tokayev-either-flee-kazakhstan-or-cease-to-be-its-president-before-7-july-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Major riots broke out in Kazakhstan after the government removed fuel subsidies ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/business-kazakhstan-almaty-9da42330ca51c36fe9fd88f9ef35ff4e), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-59880166), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/international/588318-kazakhstan-government-resigns-as-demonstrators-set-fire-to-capital)). Whether or not Tokayev has fled Kazakhstan will be determined using credible open source media reporting.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:01:18.522Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 307,
- "numforecasters": 144,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8618/tirzepatide-approved-for-weight-loss-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Eli Lilly has developed an injected drug based on [GLP-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glucagon-like_peptide-1) and [gastric inhibitory polypeptide (GIP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gastric_inhibitory_polypeptide), called tirzepatide. Tirzepatide has [performed well](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2107519) in diabetes trials and appears poised to gain FDA approval for that condition. [Experts believe](https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tirzepatide-achieved-superior-a1c-and-body-weight-reductions) it is probably more potent than semaglutide for the treatment of both type 2 diabetes and obesity, and Eli Lilly is currently conducting a [phase 3 weight loss trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04184622) in people with obesity and overweight that promises to yield results in April of 2022. Importantly, tirzepatide may provide much-needed competition for [semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide), potentially lowering drug costs.\nWill tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2025?\nThis question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency approve tirzepatide for the treatment of weight loss by 2025-01-01. This may be a successful development by Eli Lilly, or any other pharmaceutical company.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.59,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.41000000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:03:31.573Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-11-18T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the Republican nomination in the TN-05 House election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7724/Who-will-win-the-Republican-nomination-in-the-TN-05-House-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Republican nomination in the 2022 election to the United States House of Representatives from Tennessee's Fifth Congressional District.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Morgan Ortagus",
- "probability": 0.6509433962264151,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Robby Starbuck",
- "probability": 0.3113207547169811,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "\"Kid Rock\" Ritchie",
- "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Quincy McKnight",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kurt Winstead",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:08:21.336Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 3325
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Morgan Ortagus, Robby Starbuck, \"Kid Rock\" Ritchie, Quincy McKnight, Kurt Winstead"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will KIC 9832227 become a nova by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/420/will-kic-9832227-become-a-nova-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2017, a team of astronomers predicted ([technical paper](http://www.calvin.edu/academic/phys/observatory/MergingStar/MolnarEtAl2017.pdf)) that the binary stars KIC 9832227 will spiral in and collide in the year 2022.2, plus or minus 0.6. They predict that the result will be a [\"luminous red nova\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luminous_red_nova), a type of nova produced by star collisions. [News reports](http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/01/colliding-stars-will-light-night-sky-2022) say it could be the brightest object in the night sky! However, whether we actually see it in the night sky will depend on the time of year.\nGreg Egan [wrote:](https://plus.google.com/113086553300459368002/posts/PNTa3JwEdj4)\nGiven that nobody knows exactly when this will happen, the main thing that determines how many people are likely to be able to see it is the declination, 46° N. So anyone in the northern hemisphere will have a good chance ... while for someone like me, at 31° S, the odds aren't great: it will never rise higher than 13° above the northern horizon, for me.\nRight ascension is the celestial equivalent of longitude, but without knowing the season in advance (and the error bars on the current prediction are much too large for that) we can't tell if the sun will be too close to the object, drowning it in daylight to the naked eye.\nIf that happens, I guess the only comfort is that there are still sure to be telescopes able to make observations, maybe including both Hubble and James Webb.\nSo, will there be a Nova from KIC 9832227? \nResolution is positive if a Nova at the location of KIC 9832227 reaches at least visual magnitude 6 (barely visible) during the calendar year of 2021 or 2022. (So the question is addressing primarily whether it will happen, rather than when.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:10:30.897Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-01-18T02:28:09Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/cannabis-removed-from-us-schedule-i-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval.\nIn 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that.\nCanada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year.\nWill cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?\nThis question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:18:29.245Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 545,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Showtime airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-showtime-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Showtime will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.3613021168903544203484637830055673",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.6386978831096455796515362169944327",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.517Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "18",
- "liquidity": "600.00",
- "tradevolume": "1127.19",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x46da1A059cF345Bcf3C5Eed2D833A8D8cB1D9615"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6197/brazil-fifa-world-cup-win-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Brazil currently holds the most number of wins of the [FIFA world cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup) with a total of 5 titles. The last title was in 2002. Since then, the highest placement has been the fourth place, which occurred in the 2014 world cup hosted in Brazil.\nWill Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050?\n2050 World Cup is included to this resolution. \nFIFA World Cup is considered the official tournament hosted under FIFA.\nIf any World Cup prior of 2050 is moved after 2050 it does not count.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:37:21.118Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-25T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-12-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-12-29T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will India ban export of rice, wheat or maize before April 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8854/indian-export-ban-on-wheatrisemaize-/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Export bans are used in some cases by exporting countries to lower domestic prices and increase availability during shortages. However, they also add significant price pressure by further restricting supply, and the introduction of export bans can lead to a cascade. Thus we ask:\nWill India ban export of rice, wheat or maize before April 2023?\nThe question resolves positively if Indian officials announces an export ban anytime between the question opening and March 31, 2023 for either rice or wheat or maize or for two or all three of them.\nAn export ban is defined as a complete prohibition on exporting at least one type of the three grains listed above.\nThe question resolves positively if such an export ban:\n--- \nComes into force at any time between the opening of this question and March 31, 2023, even if it is later lifted (regardless of the duration of the ban). It must actually come into force. If it is only announced but cancelled before coming into force, the question resolves negatively.\n--- \nThe ban must apply to exports anywhere outside India, not just a specific region.\n--- \nThe ban can have narrow exceptions, such as allowing exports upon special authorization or in case of a humanitarian crisis. Exceptions will be considered 'narrow' if exports of the affected crops during the ban are less than 5% (in either dollar amount or weight) of what they were in the same period of the preceding year. If the ban is long enough and data are available, this will be checked based on actual export statistics. If this cannot be evaluated based on data, best judgement will be used to estimate whether the exceptions are narrow enough to likely cut exports below 5%.\n--- \nThe ban can restrict only one of these crops or more of them. It is also sufficient if the ban restricts e.g. only one specific strain or type of wheat or rice or maize.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively even if the legality of such a ban is contested (as long as it was issued by a government body that might plausibly have some authority over export control, such as the President, Prime Minister, the Cabinet as a whole or a relevant Ministry -- no effort will be made to research the Indian legal system in detail) or it is later struck down by a court.\nThis question will resolve on April 1, 2023, based on at least three credible news reports. In case of doubt, limited effort may be made to investigate primary sources (e.g. machine translated versions of government websites).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:15:04.518Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-27T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many votes to confirm Shalanda Young as OMB director by May 6?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7725/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Shalanda-Young-as-OMB-director-by-May-6",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Shalanda Young (the \"Nominee\") to be Director of the Office of Management and Budget (the \"Office\").\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; or should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be formally communicated to the United States Senate; the contract identifying the range \"53 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"70 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. The official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source, shall be used to resolve this market. Provided that, once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by any Senator to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.\nEnd Date: 05/06/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "53 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.09345794392523367,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "54 or 55",
- "probability": 0.028037383177570097,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "56 or 57",
- "probability": 0.09345794392523367,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "58 or 59",
- "probability": 0.07476635514018692,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "60 or 61",
- "probability": 0.16822429906542058,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "62 or 63",
- "probability": 0.12149532710280377,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "64 or 65",
- "probability": 0.13084112149532715,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "66 or 67",
- "probability": 0.09345794392523367,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "68 or 69",
- "probability": 0.06542056074766357,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "70 or more",
- "probability": 0.13084112149532715,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:08:26.390Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 10593
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "53 or fewer, 54 or 55, 56 or 57, 58 or 59, 60 or 61, 62 or 63, 64 or 65, 66 or 67, 68 or 69, 70 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the FAO Food Price Index for June 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2238-what-will-be-the-fao-food-price-index-for-june-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Index, which in the past has been predictive of popular unrest, has reached historic highs ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/food-prices-will-stay-high-hurting-poor-countries-most), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/global-food-prices-coronavirus-protests-9d81f4c6-7665-4aa5-9250-a5b670efdb30.html), [Slate](https://slate.com/technology/2014/04/food-riots-and-revolution-grain-prices-predict-political-instability.html)). This question will be resolved using data reported by the FAO in July 2022, typically released in the first week of the month ([FAO](http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/), see table near bottom of page).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 120.0",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 130.0 but less than 140.0",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 140.0 and 150.0, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 150.0",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:01:25.182Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 217,
- "numforecasters": 122,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 120.0, Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive, More than 130.0 but less than 140.0, Between 140.0 and 150.0, inclusive, More than 150.0"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4969/will-someone-report-to-have-received-a-hemispherectomy-for-the-purpose-of-life-extension-before-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A hemispherectomy [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hemispherectomy)\na very rare neurosurgical procedure in which a cerebral hemisphere (half of the brain) is removed, disconnected, or disabled. This procedure is used to treat a variety of seizure disorders where the source of the epilepsy is localized to a broad area of a single hemisphere of the brain, notably Rasmussen's encephalitis. [...]\nBecause of the dramatic alteration of brain composition and the inherent risk that hemispherectomies pose, there are criteria that must be met in order for a person to qualify for the procedure. Criteria include no successful control of seizures throughout a variety of drug trials, and a reasonable to high chance of procedural success.\nOne such predictor of success is often the age of the patient. This procedure is almost exclusively performed in children because their brains generally display more neuroplasticity, allowing neurons from the remaining hemisphere to take over the tasks from the lost hemisphere. [...]\nThe success of the procedure is not, however, limited to children. A study in 2007 indicated the long-term efficacy of anatomic hemispherectomy in carefully selected adults, with seizure control sustainable over multiple decades. A case study published in 2015 of 2 adults aged 48 and 38 demonstrated the success of functional hemispherectomy in treating status epilepticus (SE), an epileptic condition in which seizures are prolonged or occur closely together. In 2012, a case study following 30 individuals having undergone some form of hemispherectomy in adulthood found that 81% of individuals were seizure free post-procedure. Furthermore, almost all participating patients reported improved quality of life. The conclusion: “adult patients do not have to expect more problems with new deficits, appear to cope quite well, and most profit from surgery in several quality of life domains.”\nWhile hemispherectomies are generally reserved as a treatment for extreme cases of seizure disorders, they could conceivably aid in life extension as well. In particular, a patient could voluntarily receive a hemispherectomy in order to [cryopreserve](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryopreservation) and put their brain in long-term storage while they are still living, thereby increasing the probability that their personality and identity are stored in some sort of medium, persisting into the future.\nSo far as I can tell, a hemispherectomy performed for the purpose of life extension is purely hypothetical. Furthermore, there are few to no current online resources about this possibility (besides this one).\nThis question asks, will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100? \nHere the resolution is determined by the conjunction of three actions, performed by an individual human:\n--- \nThey received a hemispherectomy voluntarily.\n--- \nHalf of their brain was placed in long-term cryopreservation while they were still legally alive. \n--- \nThey reported in some credible source (such as through a media outlet, or via a forum with strong evidence of credibility) that the procedure was done primarily for the purpose of extending their life.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:15:10.829Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 52,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/489/will-the-european-union-meet-its-2030-targets-under-the-paris-climate-treaty/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including the European Union, [the world's #3 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)\nUnder the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. The EU's goal was to reduce emissions by 40% below 1990 levels. If achieved, by 2030 the EU will emit around [3.4-3.9 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html), whereas today the region accounts for [3.46 gigatons per year, or nearly ten percent of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Emissions have been in decline since 1990. Current projections estimate that the EU goals represent [a slowdown in the region's trend of emission reduction](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html) and that the slowdown is not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 1.5 or even 2 degrees C.\n[Other goals](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/citizens/eu_en) of the EU's by 2030:\n--- \nAt least 27% of total energy consumption from renewable energy\n--- \nAt least 27% increase in energy efficiency\nWill the EU achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the European Union government confirming that Europe has met all three 2030 climate action goals, including emission reduction by at least 40% below 1990 levels, on or before January 1, 2030.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:11:29.662Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 332,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-07-12T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-03-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Minnesota Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7577/Who-will-win-the-2022-Minnesota-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Minnesota. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Paul Gazelka",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Scott Jensen",
- "probability": 0.31,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Michelle Benson",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Neil Shah",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Murphy",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Karin Housley",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Carla Nelson",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jennifer Carnahan",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Lindell",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:03:07.308Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 19105
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Paul Gazelka, Scott Jensen, Michelle Benson, Neil Shah, Mike Murphy, Karin Housley, Carla Nelson, Jennifer Carnahan, Mike Lindell"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be more VR headset sales than AR headsets sales in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/579/vr-outsells-ar-headsets-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "If you asked someone in the early 2010s about virtual reality, they'd likely hearken back to the VR craze of the 90s, which fizzled out instead of being the promised wave of the future. But since then, with the development of the Oculus Rift, Google Cardboard and other systems, virtual reality has become more accessible and more useful than ever before. Estimates of sales of VR systems in 2016 exceeded [12 million units](https://www.statista.com/statistics/458037/virtual-reality-headsets-unit-sales-worldwide/) worldwide. \nAugmented reality, or AR, has come into its own in about the same timeframe. AR overlays virtual content onto images of the real world. Google Glass, introduced in 2013, and Microsoft's HoloLens, still in development, are wearable AR devices. Pokemon Go, introduced in summer 2016, demonstrated the possibilities of smartphone-based AR - no glasses needed. As Google Glass continues to find [application in factories and other workplaces](https://www.wired.com/story/google-glass-2-is-here/) Apple is rumored to be designing their [own AR headset](https://www.macrumors.com/2017/11/07/catcher-to-make-parts-for-ar-product/). *See related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/231/apple-virtualaugmented-reality-by-2020/).)\nWill VR headsets capture more than 50% of the AR/VR headset market by the end of 2025?\nThis question will resolve as positive if the number of VR headsets sold in 2025 exceeds the number of AR headsets sold in the same year. Credible industry reports will be required for resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:13:15.192Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 364,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-11-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-03T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-07-31T06:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Is the Collatz Conjecture true?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A sister question asks when the [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) will be resolved - here we ask which way it will turn out.\nAgain, let's say that the Collatz Program in pseudocode is:\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere n is a positive integer.\nThe Conjecture is that for all integer inputs the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1).\nFor any particular execution of the Collatz program, there are three possible outcomes:\n1) It moves up and down through input arguments of different sizes, until it encounters a power of 2, and then cascades down to 1, and halts.\n2) It moves up and down through numbers of different sizes until it repeats a number. From that point onward it will repeat a cycle, and never halt.\n3) It moves up and down through numbers of different sizes, but keeps expanding its frontier of numerical size, without ever repeating an input or encountering a power of 2. In this case, it will never halt.\nPer [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture), Jeffrey Lagarias in 2010 claimed that based only on known information about this problem, \"this is an extraordinarily difficult problem, completely out of reach of present day mathematics.\"\nThis question will resolve positively if there is a positive proof of the Conjecture (i.e. that the Collatz Program halts for all integer inputs) in a major Mathematics journal before June 21, 2520. It will resolve negatively if there is a publication of a disconfirmation in a major mathematics journal before that time. \nIf the Conjecture has neither been proven nor disproven before that time, it will resolve as ambiguous.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:35:48.575Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 243,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-26T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2520-06-21T19:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be elected to be the Republican Party presidential nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.178163916",
- "platform": "Betfair",
- "description": "This market will be settled on the candidate voted to be the Republican Party nominee as a result of the 2024 Republican National Convention. This market will be turned in-play with unmatched bets cancelled at the start of the 2024 Republican National Convention. Thereafter, this market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times.This market will be void if the Republican Party do not nominate a candidate to run in the 2024 election. Additional runners may be added to this market upon request. All bets stand run or not. Customers should be aware that:
Transmissions described as “live” by some broadcasters may actually be delayed.
The extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data.
If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules. Please note, due to internal administrative procedures, the indicated start date/time of this market is subject to change. This will have no impact on settlement as detailed in our market specific rules. Any changes to the start time/date will be recorded in the market rules.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump",
- "probability": 0.42084071193613287,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ron DeSantis",
- "probability": 0.19483366293339482,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nikki Haley",
- "probability": 0.07793346517335793,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Pence",
- "probability": 0.07014011865602214,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Pompeo",
- "probability": 0.036279371718632145,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tucker Carlson",
- "probability": 0.026302544496008304,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ted Cruz",
- "probability": 0.01912912326982422,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Josh Hawley",
- "probability": 0.00956456163491211,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tom Cotton",
- "probability": 0.023911404087280277,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kristi Noem",
- "probability": 0.02191878708000692,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tim Scott",
- "probability": 0.010521017798403321,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ivanka Trump",
- "probability": 0.012377667998121554,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ben Sasse",
- "probability": 0.001421759161946395,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rick Scott",
- "probability": 0.0026302544496008304,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marco Rubio",
- "probability": 0.005010008475430153,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
- "probability": 0.005845009888001846,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mitt Romney",
- "probability": 0.0023911404087280275,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dan Crenshaw",
- "probability": 0.00133177440486118,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Paul Ryan",
- "probability": 0.005537377788633327,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kanye West",
- "probability": 0.0017535029664005536,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ben Carson",
- "probability": 0.008093090614156402,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chris Christie",
- "probability": 0.005010008475430153,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sarah Huckabee Sanders",
- "probability": 0.001073573244735033,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Liz Cheney",
- "probability": 0.002922504944000923,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Greg Abbott",
- "probability": 0.0031881872116373703,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Kasich",
- "probability": 0.00133177440486118,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Evan McMullin",
- "probability": 0.0011074755577266653,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Condoleezza Rice",
- "probability": 0.0010521017798403322,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lisa Murkowski",
- "probability": 0.0010521017798403322,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rand Paul",
- "probability": 0.0030060050852580918,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jared Kushner",
- "probability": 0.0011074755577266653,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jeb Bush",
- "probability": 0.002147146489470066,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joni Ernst",
- "probability": 0.001095939354000346,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ben Shapiro",
- "probability": 0.0011821368312812722,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Matt Gaetz",
- "probability": 0.0011435888911307957,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tom Brady",
- "probability": 0.0021042035596806645,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Jordan",
- "probability": 0.00106272907054579,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Devin Nunes",
- "probability": 0.0010521017798403322,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lindsay Graham",
- "probability": 0.0010521017798403322,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bobby Jindal",
- "probability": 0.0010521017798403322,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "James Mattis",
- "probability": 0.0010521017798403322,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rick Perry",
- "probability": 0.001073573244735033,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rob Portman",
- "probability": 0.0010521017798403322,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Orrin Hatch",
- "probability": 0.0010521017798403322,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Susan Collins",
- "probability": 0.0010521017798403322,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Steve Bannon",
- "probability": 0.0010521017798403322,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mitch McConnell",
- "probability": 0.0010521017798403322,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Eric Trump",
- "probability": 0.0010521017798403322,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Winsome Sears",
- "probability": 0.0010521017798403322,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:00:25.986Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4,
- "volume": 185205.47
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Tucker Carlson, Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem, Tim Scott, Ivanka Trump, Ben Sasse, Rick Scott, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump Jr., Mitt Romney, Dan Crenshaw, Paul Ryan, Kanye West, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Liz Cheney, Greg Abbott, John Kasich, Evan McMullin, Condoleezza Rice, Lisa Murkowski, Rand Paul, Jared Kushner, Jeb Bush, Joni Ernst, Ben Shapiro, Matt Gaetz, Tom Brady, Jim Jordan, Devin Nunes, Lindsay Graham, Bobby Jindal, James Mattis, Rick Perry, Rob Portman, Orrin Hatch, Susan Collins, Steve Bannon, Mitch McConnell, Eric Trump, Winsome Sears"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4628/will-one-of-givewells-2019-top-charities-be-estimated-as-the-most-cost-effective-charity-in-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against [taking these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nGiveWell usually updates its list of top charities on an annual basis. Will the most cost-effective charity on GiveWell's 2031 list, according to GiveWell's \"cost per life saved\" metric, be a charity that also appeared on the 2019 list of top charities?\nGiveWell's [2019 top charities](https://blog.givewell.org/2019/11/26/announcing-our-2019-top-charities/) are:\n---Malaria Consortium \n---Against Malaria Foundation \n---Helen Keller International \n---Deworm the World Initiative \n---SCI Foundation \n---Sightsavers' deworming program[1] \n---END Fund's deworming program[1] \n---GiveDirectly \nIf the 2031 top charity with the highest estimated cost-effectiveness is on this list, the question resolves affirmative. If it is NOT on this list, the question resolves negative.\nSome clarifications:\nGiveWell usually releases its list of top charities near the end of the year, so when I say \"2019 top charities\", that refers to the list that was published near the end of 2019 and will probably remain unchanged throughout most of 2020.\nIf GiveWell ceases to exist or ceases to publish top charities, the question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf GiveWell no longer recommends any global poverty charities but still maintains a top charity list, the question resolves as negative.\nIf 2031's most cost-effective charity does not have the same name as any on the 2019 list, but came out of a 2019 charity being renamed, merged with another charity, or spun off, AND is being recommended on the basis of the same intervention as in 2019 (e.g., if Against Malaria Foundation merges with another charity but still produces bednets and is recommended for its bednet program), then the question resolves as affirmative.\nIf 2031's most cost-effective charity existed on the 2019 list but is no longer running the same type of intervention as it was in 2019, the question resolves as negative, on the basis that the charity is now meaningfully different. For example, if AMF is still recommended in 2031 but now it exclusively runs a malaria vaccine program instead of a bednets program, the question resolves as negative.\nIf GiveWell publishes multiple top-charity lists, then this question resolves affirmatively if at least one 2019 top charity appears on at least one of the 2031 lists AND is estimated to be the most cost-effective charity on that particular list (but not necessarily the most cost-effective across all lists).\n[1] These charities have multiple programs. GiveWell's recommendation is for one specific program.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:07:39.227Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the number of foreign nationals in Mainland China fall between 2010 and 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4229/will-the-number-of-foreign-nationals-in-mainland-china-fall-between-2010-and-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since the election of Xi Jinping, China has substantially slowed or stopped its previous trend of gradually increasing openness to and economic integration with the outside world.\nThe Covid-19 pandemic has only accelerated the [decoupling](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2020/03/28/2003733510) of China's economy from the US. China has [banned](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/26/821972324/china-temporarily-closes-its-borders-to-foreign-nationals) the entry of foreign nationals and regards those inside its border with [suspicion](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-foreigners/foreigners-face-suspicion-in-china-as-coronavirus-worsens-overseas-idUSKBN21E1DU).\nThis question asks, will Mainland China be less open to the world in 2030 than it was in 2010?\nSpecifically, will the number of foreign nationals living in China as reported on the 8th national census (assuming it takes place in 2030) be less than the number reported on the [6th national census](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sixth_National_Population_Census_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China) in 2010?\nThe question resolves positively if the number of foreign nationals residing in Mainland China reported in the 8th census is lower than the number reported in the 6th census (593,832).\nThe question resolves negatively if the number reported in the 8th census census is greater than or equal to the number from the 6th census.\nIf for some reason the 8th national census is not conducted in 2030, or the results are not available by the closing date (Dec 31,2032), the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:02:07.511Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 74,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-06T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 be awarded?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9458/eliciting-latent-knowledge-50k-prize-awarded/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On January 3, 2022, [Paul Christiano](https://paulfchristiano.com/), of the [Alignment Research Center (ARC)](https://alignmentresearchcenter.org/), posted on LessWrong offering [prizes for proposals about eliciting latent knowledge (ELK)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QEYWkRoCn4fZxXQAY/prizes-for-elk-proposals).\nThe post describes eliciting latent knowledge (ELK) and the proposals being sought as follows:\nRoughly speaking, the goal of ELK is to incentivize ML models to honestly answer “straightforward” questions where the right answer is unambiguous and known by the model. \nELK is currently unsolved in the worst case—for every training strategy we’ve thought of so far, we can describe a case where an ML model trained with that strategy would give unambiguously bad answers to straightforward questions despite knowing better. Situations like this may or may not come up in practice, but nonetheless we are interested in finding a strategy for ELK for which we can’t think of any counterexample.\nELK and the existing counterexamples are described in more detail in ARC's December 2021 report [Eliciting latent knowledge: How to tell if your eyes deceive you](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1WwsnJQstPq91_Yh-Ch2XRL8H_EpsnjrC1dwZXR37PC8/edit#heading=h.kkaua0hwmp1d).\nHere is how the post describes prize awards:\nTo win a prize, you need to specify a training strategy for ELK that handles all of the counterexamples that we’ve described so far, summarized in the section below—i.e. where the breaker would need to specify something new about the test case to cause the strategy to break down. You don’t need to fully solve the problem in the worst case to win a prize, you just need to come up with a strategy that requires a new counterexample.\nWe’ll give a $5,000 prize to any proposal that we think clears this bar. We’ll give a $50,000 prize to a proposal which we haven’t considered and seems sufficiently promising to us or requires a new idea to break. We’ll give intermediate prizes for ideas that we think are promising but we’ve already considered, as well as for proposals that come with novel counterexamples, clarify some other aspect of the problem, or are interesting in other ways. A major purpose of the contest is to provide support for people understanding the problem well enough to start contributing; we aren’t trying to only reward ideas that are new to us.\nSome retroactive prizes have already been awarded as described below:\nWe’re giving prizes to existing proposals from David Dalrymple ($5k), Ramana Kumar ($3k), John Maxwell ($2k), and Yonadav Shavit ($1k).\nWill an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 be awarded?\nThis resolves positively if one or more $50,000 prizes are awarded before June 1, 2022, as a result of submissions to the eliciting latent knowledge proposal contest. The prize must be for work or a submission directly relating to the eliciting latent knowledge research and the [relevant LessWrong post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QEYWkRoCn4fZxXQAY/prizes-for-elk-proposals). Later contests covering similar AI topics would not count. If for some reason the prize is more than $50,000, but is described by ARC as being intended for the $50,000 category described in the question background, that would satisfy this question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.31,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.69,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:40:56.941Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-16T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-30T16:29:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T15:29:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8991/2022-warmer-than-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5916/will-2021-be-the-hottest-year-on-record/) \n---[Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8882/2022-hottest-year-on-record/) \n8 years between 2010 to 2019 have been in [the top 10 warmest years on record](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202013) according to NOAA's 2020 report. The remaining 2 years in the top 10 were 2020 and 2005. This is one indicator of global [climate change](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change) caused by humans.\n[NASA's GISTEMP](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/) analysis of global surface temperatures show an average increase of 0.032C per year from 2001 - 2020, and an avarage increase of 0.02C from 1971 - 2020. 13 out of 20 years between 2001 - 2020 were warmer than their preceeding year.\nWill 2022 be warmer than 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if global surface temperatures in 2022 are warmer than in 2021, according to [NASA's GISTEMP](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/). In the event of a statistical tie, another credible source such as [NOAA](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/noaa-global-temp) may be used.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:23:17.022Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 188,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-25T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-03-01T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Xi Jinping be re-elected CCP General Secretary before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7209/Will-Xi-Jinping-be-re-elected-CCP-General-Secretary-before-2023",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Xi Jinping, the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party at the time of launch of this market on April 5, 2021, is re-elected to that position by a Plenary Session of the Party's 20th Central Committee at any time before the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 10:59 AM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.06000000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:58:04.558Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 27054
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Assassination by autonomous weapon by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/351/assassination-by-autonomous-weapon-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One of the many areas in which automation is steadily advancing is in weapons systems. Advances in machine learning systems that can parse photos and video, recognize faces, maneuver in complex 3-dimensional spaces, etc., can in principle allow new weapons systems that operate largely or wholly without human guidance.\nAs described [here](http://spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/military-robots/do-we-want-robot-warriors-to-decide-who-lives-or-dies), such weapons raise a number of both strategic and ethical questions involving the threshold of conflict, arms races, and who (or what) chooses to take human lives. Several campaigns have arisen calling for an international ban on lethal autonomous weapons.\nOne major concern raised by such campaigns, articulated for example in this [open letter](http://futureoflife.org/open-letter-autonomous-weapons/), is that an arms race in autonomous weapons could lead to cheap, widely available, highly effective weapons that could be used for political purposes including suppression of dissent or assassinations. For example, a swarm of tiny drones with facial recognition systems could seek out particular individuals (or groups) and kill them with toxins or small close-range explosives. \nWill a credible media report indicate that an autonomous weapon system has been used to kill a political figure by start of 2025? \nPositive resolution requires that: \n--- \nthe figure killed is in a leadership role of a political group – either a government or other organization built around political ends, and\n--- \nthe target is identified by the autonomous system itself, according to some criteria, rather than by other means of surveillance (which may be used to localize the target but not select the target out of, for example, nearby people), and\n--- \nno other \"unintended\" people are significantly harmed in the attack.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:09:32.671Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 173,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-10-15T21:22:57Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4630/will-metaculus-inc-host-a-prediction-market-prior-to-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus), Metaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine.\nWill Metaculus Inc. launch a prediction market for binary questions prior to Jan 1st, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if all of the following occur:\n--- \nMetaculus hosts a system whereby participants can both buy and sell an instrument whose payout depends on the outcome of a binary question\n------For Metaculus to host such a system, the system must be operated and maintained principally by Metaculus Inc. or any of its subsidiaries \n--- \nThe payout is monetary or readily convert-able into cash (including cryptocurrency, or points/tokens that can be converted to cash) \n--- \nAn individual could trade instruments valued at $50 or more (in 2020 USD) within a 24-hour window at some point prior to 2024\nIf Metaculus is acquired or merges with another company before 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:07:44.477Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-11T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-09T11:36:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-11T11:36:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": ">=48 Dem-held seats after 2022 Senate elections",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A168",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-06-04T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will retail and restaurant locations in the US decline by over 50% between 2020 and 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8407/retail-locations-half-of-2020-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "E-commerce has grown in popularity and has caused many to speculate that physical shopping may become obsolete in the future. \nPhysical department store locations have faced a slow decline in recent years, with a sharper decline exacerbated by the pandemic in 2020 (see the section titled \"Number of department store locations in the US\" [here](https://www.vox.com/recode/21561046/death-rebirth-department-stores-retail-charts)).\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about physical retail in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nThe majority of all current brick and mortar stores that are not located in scenic or tightly-packed downtowns will have closed. From stores that sell physical objects to chain restaurants, most of the physical locations you can go and shop will be gone. Instead, you will be able to get any product you would normally buy in a physical store delivered to you in under an hour, sometimes in mere minutes.\nWill retail and restaurant locations in the US decline by over 50% between 2020 and 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if, at any time between 2021 and 2050, at least 4 of the following 7 business categories report 50% fewer physical establishments than reported in 2020:\n---Electronics and appliance stores \n---Grocery stores \n---Health and personal care stores \n---Clothing stores \n---Shoe stores \n---Department stores \n---Limited-service restaurants \nResolution will be according to the [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/). The categories above are fully defined by [NAICS](https://www.naics.com/search/) in the fine print. If BLS no longer reports this data or changes their classification or methodology, Metaculus Admins may use a similar source of data or resolve ambiguously, at their discretion.\nBLS categorizes businesses using [NAICS](https://www.naics.com/search/). categories are listed with the total number of establishments in the US for 2020 (as of November 24, 2021). BLS series IDs are useful for retrieving data from [here](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/srgate).\nNAICS ID description 2020 number of establishments BLS series ID \n4431\nElectronics and appliance stores\n43643\nENUUS0002054431\n4451\nGrocery stores\n89545\nENUUS0002054451\n4461\nHealth and personal care stores\n112133\nENUUS0002054461\n4481\nClothing stores\n79968\nENUUS0002054481\n4482\nShoe stores\n15993\nENUUS0002054482\n4522\nDepartment stores\n11567\nENUUS0002054522\n722513\nLimited-service restaurants\n248416\nENUUS000205722513\nNumbers of establishments in 2020 will be used as above, unless there is more accurate data known to Metaculus Admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:53:59.038Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T21:53:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-08-01T20:53:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4924/will-the-church-of-jesus-christ-of-latter-day-saints-allow-same-sex-marriage-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), otherwise known as the Mormons, have historically been more anti-LGBT, in terms of both official church doctrine and the individual attitudes of members, than most major Christian denominations in America. However, like other such large, socially conservative churches, there has been [a lot of pressure recently](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homosexuality_and_The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), particularly from younger and/or LGBT members, for them to change their doctrine regarding gender and sexuality. \nWill the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognize marriages between individuals of the same sex?\nThis question resolves positively if by midnight on December 31st, 2029, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognizes marriages between individuals of the same sex.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:13:57.596Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 99,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T06:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Joe Biden's RCP job approval rating be on Feb. 11?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7730/What-will-Joe-Biden's-RCP-job-approval-rating-be-on-Feb-11",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify President Biden's average RealClearPolitics job approval rating at the End Date listed below. The approval rating shall be drawn from the table of individual polls entitled \"Polling Data\", available upon launch of this market at https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html (\"the Settlement Source\"), at the row labeled as as \"RCP Average.\" \nAny number displayed at the Settlement Source at the End Date other than the live number labeled \"RCP Average\" will be irrelevant for purposes of this market.\nShould the Settlement Source be unavailable at the End Date for the day in question at that time, PredictIt will, at its sole discretion, await an update, select the most recent data point in the identified series or an alternate source, or construct its own polling average.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/11/2022 11:00:00 AM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "40.2% or lower",
- "probability": 0.6851851851851851,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "40.3% to 40.5%",
- "probability": 0.16666666666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "40.6% to 40.8%",
- "probability": 0.06481481481481481,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "40.9% to 41.1%",
- "probability": 0.037037037037037035,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "41.2% to 41.4%",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "41.5% to 41.7%",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "41.8% to 42.0%",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "42.1% to 42.3%",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "42.4% or higher",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:08:50.792Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 173921
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "40.2% or lower, 40.3% to 40.5%, 40.6% to 40.8%, 40.9% to 41.1%, 41.2% to 41.4%, 41.5% to 41.7%, 41.8% to 42.0%, 42.1% to 42.3%, 42.4% or higher"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9585/l-kruger-confirmed-to-scotus-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Leondra Reid Kruger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leondra_Kruger), born July 28, 1976, is an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of California and a former Obama administration official.\nIt has been [speculated](https://twitter.com/JeffreyToobin/status/1483197268828295170) that President Joe Biden could nominate Kruger to the U.S. Supreme Court should he have the opportunity to select a new justice during the 117th United States Congress.\nBiden had [pledged](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/problem-biden-s-pledge-black-woman-justice-n1200826) during the 2020 United States presidential election campaign to appoint a \"black woman\" to the court, should a vacancy occur.\nOn January 26th 2022, it was [reported by NBC](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/justice-stephen-breyer-retire-supreme-court-paving-way-biden-appointment-n1288042) and other media organizations that current Associate Justice Stephen Breyer, considered a liberal on the court, is planning to retire at the end of the court's current term, giving President Biden his first opportunity to nominate a new Justice to the Supreme Court.\nWill Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Leondra Kruger is confirmed by the Senate to serve as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States at any time before 00:00 Eastern before January 1, 2023. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:46:29.343Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-07-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will photonic tensor cores be ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4872/will-photonic-tensor-cores-be-ubiquitous-in-machine-learning-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [an article](https://techxplore.com/news/2020-07-photon-based-enable-complex-machine.html) reporting on new developments in photonic tensor cores,\nA paper in the journal Applied Physics Reviews, by AIP Publishing, proposes a new approach to perform computations required by a neural network, using light instead of electricity. In this approach, a photonic tensor core performs multiplications of matrices in parallel, improving speed and efficiency of current deep learning paradigms.\nIn machine learning, neural networks are trained to learn to perform unsupervised decision and classification on unseen data. Once a neural network is trained on data, it can produce an inference to recognize and classify objects and patterns and find a signature within the data.\nThe photonic TPU stores and processes data in parallel, featuring an electro-optical interconnect, which allows the optical memory to be efficiently read and written and the photonic TPU to interface with other architectures.\nThe abstract from the [paper](https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0001942) reads, \nWhile several photonic neural network designs have been explored, a photonic tensor core to perform tensor operations is yet to be implemented. In this manuscript, we introduce an integrated photonics-based tensor core unit by strategically utilizing (i) photonic parallelism via wavelength division multiplexing, (ii) high 2 peta-operations-per-second throughputs enabled by tens of picosecond-short delays from optoelectronics and compact photonic integrated circuitry, and (iii) near-zero static power-consuming novel photonic multi-state memories based on phase-change materials featuring vanishing losses in the amorphous state. Combining these physical synergies of material, function, and system, we show, supported by numerical simulations, that the performance of this 4-bit photonic tensor core unit can be 1 order of magnitude higher for electrical data. The full potential of this photonic tensor processor is delivered for optical data being processed, where we find a 2–3 orders higher performance (operations per joule), as compared to an electrical tensor core unit, while featuring similar chip areas.\nPhotonic tensor cores are said to be \"ubiquitous\" in machine learning by 2030 if all three of the top machine learning cloud computing services offer photonic tensor cores for training models. The top machine learning cloud computing services are taken to the top three services that are yielded by the DuckDuckGo search, \"machine learning cloud computing service\" (If DuckDuckGo is no longer available, the following take their place in order of priority: Google, Bing).\nThis question resolves positively if photonic tensor cores are ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030, and negatively otherwise.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:12:17.865Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 143,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6558/working-alcubierre-like-ftl-drive-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Alcubierre drive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive) is a speculative warp drive idea based on a solution of Einstein's field equations in general relativity as proposed by Mexican theoretical physicist Miguel Alcubierre, by which a spacecraft could achieve apparent faster-than-light travel if a configurable energy-density field lower than that of vacuum (that is, negative mass) could be created.\nRather than exceeding the speed of light within a local reference frame, a spacecraft would traverse distances by contracting space in front of it and expanding space behind it, resulting in effective faster-than-light travel. Objects cannot accelerate to the speed of light within normal spacetime; instead, the Alcubierre drive shifts space around an object so that the object would arrive at its destination more quickly than light would in normal space without breaking any physical laws.\nHowever, there are [a number of technical challenges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive#Difficulties) that may mean that it is either extremely difficult or impossible to create a device that functions as Alcubierre described.\nAlcubierre's original paper can be read here: [The warp drive: hyper-fast travel within general relativity](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/0009013)\nWill a functional Alcubierre drive device be demonstrated before 2100?\nThis question resolves positively if before January 1, 2100, a credible paper is published in a peer-reviewed journal that details a successful demonstration of a functioning device that works broadly in the manner that Alcubierre described, and that enables a physical object to traverse distances at faster-than-light speeds.\nThis demonstration must take place in 'base reality' (i.e. the universe in which the concept was originally proposed, and in which Metaculus users in January 2021 lived) rather than in any kind of simulated reality or alternative physical universe that is created or discovered after February 12, 2021.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:47:10.921Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2063-04-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nWill Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?\nResolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:53:28.845Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 351,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-06T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-12T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Bitcoin move away from proof-of-work by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7109/bitcoin-consensus-mechanism-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Proof-of-work](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proof_of_work) (PoW) is well known for being a secure consensus mechanism that consumes a lot of energy. [Proof-of-stake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proof_of_stake) (PoS) is known as an alternative that consumes less energy but is hard to get just right for security. There are also other less well-known [proof-of-'x'](https://golden.com/wiki/Cluster%3A_Blockchain_and_cryptocurrency-8AR86E6#Base-layer-protocols_Consensus) consensus mechanisms. \nEthereum and Bitcoin, currently the two largest cryptocurrencies by market cap (Apr 2021), both use PoW. But Ethereum is in the process of moving the chain to a PoS protocol. \nWill Bitcoin move away from proof-of-work by 2035?\nIf there is a fork with one chain keeping PoW and the other going with a different consensus mechanism, whichever chain has the larger market cap by Dec 31, 2034 will 'win'. If there are a series of forks then whichever decedent has the largest market cap will.\nIf Bitcoin's market cap (the greatest-valued fork) is worth less than 500x of the market cap of another cryptocurrency, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:04:17.428Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-23T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 2018, it's taken [about 16 years for the world economic output to double](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence.\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example.\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same article for Christiano's list of arguments regarding fast vs. slow takeoff.)\nWill a 4-year GDP doubling complete (slow takeoff) before a 1-year doubling (fast takeoff) does? \nResolution is by credible assessment of world GDP in constant US dollars (or other appropriately widely-accepted units).\nThere will be an ambiguous resolution if there is no 4 year (nor 1 year) doubling interval by 2050, to isolate specifically the takeoff speed from other things like the chances of no takeoff occurring at all or human extinction.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:15:56.114Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 349,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-03-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8374/offensive-nuclear-detonations-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, [nine states possess a total of ~13,000 nuclear warheads](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/). Over the coming decades, it's possible that some of those states will abandon their nuclear weapons, that other states will develop nuclear weapons, and that global stockpiles sizes will substantially rise or fall. \nAnd if nuclear conflict does occur, it's at least possible that could involve the use of anywhere from just a single nuclear weapon to all the nuclear weapons that existed at the start of the conflict (or even more). A clearer sense of how many weapons might be used could inform decisions about how much various actors should prioritize nuclear risk reduction and which interventions are most valuable for nuclear risk reduction. (For example, the likelier it is that only a small number of nuclear weapons would be used, the less important it'd be to reduce the chance of arms races or of escalation from limited to large-scale nuclear war.)\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nSee also\n--- \n[Will >1000 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8375/offensive-nuclear-detonations-by-2050/)\n--- \n[How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\nWill >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if the number of offensive nuclear weapons detonations in total between the opening of this question and 2050-01-01 is larger than 100. If there is no fatality from an offensive nuclear detonations before 2050, then this question will resolve ambiguously. That is, this question conditions on at least one fatality from an offensive detonation occurring by 2050. \nResolution criteria will come from historical consensus as of 2055-01-01.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:51:49.544Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-06-04T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2055-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2nd 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8005/coup-by-bolsonaro-by-january-2nd-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [The Week](https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/world-news/americas/954151/brazil-election-is-jair-bolsonaro-preparing-to-stage-a-coup),\nIs Jair Bolsonaro preparing to stage a coup? It’s starting to look that way, said Fernando de Barros e Silva in Folha de São Paulo. Last week, Brazil’s far-right president marked his country’s independence day by staging a huge rally in São Paulo. Addressing 140,000 supporters, he repeated his previous attacks on the integrity of Brazil’s electronic voting system, and lashed out at the Supreme Court, vowing to no longer follow its rulings.\nHe also launched a bitter verbal assault on one of the court’s justices, who incurred his wrath by authorising several probes into his conduct, including to examine whether he has committed a crime by spreading fake news about the risk of fraud in next year’s presidential elections. But it was his uncompromising language that really set alarm bells ringing. “I will never be jailed,” vowed the 66-year-old former army captain. “Only God will oust me.”\nWill Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2nd 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if either of the following happen before January 2nd 2023 (Pacific Time),\n--- \nCredible media assert that Jair Bolsonaro successfully staged a coup\n--- \nCredible media assert that Jair Bolsonaro lost the 2022 Brazilian presidential election AND Jair Bolsonaro is widely considered to still be in power by the end of the day on January 1st 2023\n\"Credible media\" refers to a consensus among major American media outlets: NBC, ABC, AP, NY Times, Washington Post, Fox News and CBS.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:35:23.944Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 94,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-19T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-30T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will cost-adjusted IT technology be worse than it was 8 years (32 quarters) ago in at least one quarter prior to 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/968/will-cost-adjusted-it-technology-be-worse-than-it-was-8-years-32-quarters-ago-in-at-least-one-quarter-prior-to-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "We often take the advance of IT technology for granted and even believe it to be progressing at an exponential rate. While Moore's Law has (by some definitions) continued to hold, the data economists have generated when they estimated [the amount of investment required to have equal quality IT equipment over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B935RG3Q086SBEA), reveals that in some sense progress has slowed down. While quality progress was exponential for a long time too, the last approximately ten years have not been all that great. \nThe inverse of the linked-to index can be seen as a kind of estimation of the quality of information technology at a given time. (The predictor is encouraged to export the data into excel and look at the evolution of the inverse of the index and the percentage improvement over the last 8 years over time.) \nFor example(s), the percentage increase in quality between Q1 1990 and Q1 1998 was 333.5%; the percentage increase in quality between Q1 2000 and Q1 2008 was 172.6%; the percentage increase in quality between Q1 2010 and Q1 2018 was 11.2%. Will the percentage increase in quality over an 8-year time period fall below 0% prior to 2030? Or will progress pick up again to the pace it was at in the 1990s?\nIt is asked: In some quarter prior to Q1 2030, will the [linked-to index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B935RG3Q086SBEA) have a value greater than the value 32 quarters (8 years) prior to that quarter?\nNotes: \n--- \nShould the index reach a higher level than 5 years (20 quarters) ago (prior to question closure) the question should be closed to avoid resolution while the question is open. \n--- \nShould this occur anyway, the question should be retroactively closed the day before the last (resolution triggering) data-point was released. Resolution will be through the linked-to index. \n--- \nShould the link be discontinued, a reasonable effort should be made to find the same index from another reputable source, yet should the index not be findable, the question shall resolve ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:18:08.172Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 144,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-04-30T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an effort to coordinate foot voting intentionally move 10,000+ residents to a single American state by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8093/moving-us-voters-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The US Declaration of Independence refers to the concept of the [consent of the governed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consent_of_the_governed), that governance and its associated authority are derived from the will of the people. A lack of consent may lead to revolution in extreme cases. In modern America, citizens typically interact with governance by voting and advocating for representatives and preferred policies, or by moving to another jurisdiction with governance that already more closely aligns with their current interests.\n[Foot voting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foot_voting) is the \"physical migration to leave a situation one does not like, or to move to a situation one regards as more beneficial.” America has a rich history of migration and de facto foot voting. The westward movement of citizens via Manifest Destiny, the [Mormons’ mass exodus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mormon_pioneers) to Utah, and the movement of African Americans to northern cities are historic examples of foot voting in America. Although such radical migrations are less visible today, Americans still move with regularity, and federalism allows American jurisdictions to compete for residents based on tax policy, healthcare, education, job opportunities and other aspects of governance.\nIn 2001, the [Free State Project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_State_Project) (FSP), a non-profit organization, explicitly encouraged Americans to move to New Hampshire to support and influence the state’s governance. Participants were asked to sign a statement of intent to move to New Hampshire within five years of reaching 20,000 signatories. In 2016, the threshold was met. There were almost 2,000 early movers, and by 2021, over 5,000 of the original signees had purportedly moved to NH, and 17 state representatives [self-identified as Free Staters](https://freestateprojectwatch.org/fsp-members-in-nh-state-senate-house-2017-2018/) in the 2017-2018 session. FSP asserts that it no longer actively aims for a specific number of voters to move. Regardless, this is both objectively impressive and evidence that this kind of coordination is extremely difficult. FSP legitimately changed NH politics but only 25% of these motivated Americans found it viable to move.\nThe Free State Project is a seminal example of foot voting that was coordinated, which refers to the intentional effort to coordinate foot voting en masse to increase the value of individual votes.\nWill a coordinated effort at foot voting intentionally move 10,000+ residents to a single American state by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if any organization, platform or group publicly self-proclaims that they have moved 10,000+ residents to a single state by Jan 1, 2030 with the intention of voting en masse. Claims must be corroborated by credible media reports, and in the case of ambiguity, Metaculus Admins will make a determination at their discretion. We’re specifically interested in modern and relatively acute instances of CFV, so the effort should have started on or after January 1, 2016, shortly before FSP officially started counting movers (If for example, the FSP reaches 10,000 moved to NH by 2030, this will resolve the question positively). This question resolves negatively if no projects have moved 10,000+ residents to a single state.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:38:11.491Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-22T01:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-03-27T02:17:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Liberal Leader - Next Election: Who will be the leader of the named political party at 8:00am AEST on voting day of the next Australian Federal Election?",
- "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.180957876",
- "platform": "Betfair",
- "description": "Unmatched bets will not be cancelled at any time. Other eligible candidates may be added on request.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Scott Morrison",
- "probability": 0.723100245513801,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Josh Frydenberg",
- "probability": 0.13398622196285137,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Peter Dutton",
- "probability": 0.13015804419248417,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Greg Hunt",
- "probability": 0.009111063093473893,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alan Tudge",
- "probability": 0.0036444252373895574,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:00:25.986Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4,
- "volume": 80235.41
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Scott Morrison, Josh Frydenberg, Peter Dutton, Greg Hunt, Alan Tudge"
- },
- {
- "title": "[From Nate Silver] Will there be a federal mask requirement on US domestic flights on November 8, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/from-nate-silver-will-there-be-a-federal-mask-requirement-on-us-domestic-flights-on-november-8-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market about whether there will be a federal mask requirement on US domestic flights on November 8, 2022, posited by Nate Silver: https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1476930984931168276?s=21.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes”, if on November 8, 2022, all ordinary domestic airplane travellers are required by law to wear a mask that completely covers the mouth and nose while using airplane transportation. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor this market to resolve to “Yes”, the mandate must be issued by a federal agency, such as the CDC or TSA - not solely by airplane companies.\n\nPlease note, if there is a mask mandate that is applicable to all ordinary passengers but vaccinated people, it will NOT be sufficient to resolve the market to “Yes.”\n\nNote also that the mask mandates in question do not have to be due to COVID-19. ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.3550015743475720551243291254898713",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.6449984256524279448756708745101287",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.516Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "154",
- "liquidity": "3406.28",
- "tradevolume": "11034.52",
- "stars": 4
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x106F595aa829B8132A9f26DB656eDA3e470B769c"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On November 22, 1963, Lee Harvey Oswald shot President John F. Kennedy in Dallas as he proceeded down the street in a motorcade. Kennedy died shortly thereafter, and the nation descended into mourning. The [JFK assassination](https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/November-22-1963-Death-of-the-President.aspx) not only led to countless conspiracy theories, but it also led to better Presidential security measures.\nJFK was the last President killed in office. But he wasn't the first. Our nation's checkered history has witnessed a disturbing number of assassinations, including:\n--- \nJohn Wilkes Booth famously killed [President Abraham Lincoln](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/john-wilkes-booth-shoots-abraham-lincoln) on April 14, 1865.\n--- \nCharles J. Guiteau shot and killed [President James Garfield](http://americanhistory.si.edu/presidency/3d1d.html) on September 19, 1881. \n--- \nLeon Czolgosz, an anarchist, shot [President William McKinley](http://www.historynet.com/president-william-mckinley-assassinated-by-an-anarchist.htm) in 1901.\nAnd there have been plenty of near misses as well. For instance, on March 30, 1981, John Hinckley Jr. [shot President Reagan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Ronald_Reagan), who fortunately recovered from the assault. \nIt's been nearly 55 years since JFK's death. But how long will our collective good fortune – due in part to a vigilant, well trained Secret Service – last? More specifically, will we make it to at least 2100 without another Presidential assassination of a sitting President?\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:20:20.113Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 312,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-08-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Mike Pence be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7083/mike-pence-2024-gop-presidential-nominee/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Mike Pence served as the 48th Vice President of the United States. Prior to that he was the governor of Indiana. Vice Presidents often seek the presidency in later elections, and there has [been speculation](https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/trumps-heir-pence-reemerges-lays-040658191.html) that Pence is preparing to run for president in 2024.\nWill Mike Pence be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?\nResolves positively if Mike Pence is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:03:35.685Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 251,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-03T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T16:43:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T15:44:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Trump’s Truth Social launch on the iOS app store by February 21st?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-trumps-truth-social-launch-on-the-ios-app-store-by-february-21st",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if the Truth Social iOS app, affiliated with Donald Trump, will be live and available for installation on the US iOS app store by February 21st, 2022. If Americans with iPhones with the latest iOS firmware update can install Truth Social, also defined as the app from this linked App Store page: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/truth-social/id1586018825, on or before February 21st, 2022, 11:59pm ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Pre-Order does not satisfy the market conditions. If the app can be installed by February 21, 2022, even if it is unable to be installed afterwards, it will satisfy the conditions to resolve this market to “Yes.”",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.04418305333745144787854281190326565",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9558169466625485521214571880967344",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.516Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "1030",
- "liquidity": "1372.01",
- "tradevolume": "209121.66",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x0bA9A580169358cC4F329CaDD8ef5D2D314efDDD"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Urbit development be ongoing in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8009/urbit-devlopment-ongoing-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Urbit is ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbit)):\na decentralized personal server platform.[1] The platform seeks to deconstruct the client-server model in favour of a federated network of personal servers in a peer-to-peer network with a consistent digital identity.[2]\nThe aims are bold, so will it succeed? One way to quantify this is to think of whether the development is still ongoing in 2025. Urbit code changes [are public on Github](https://github.com/urbit/port/commits/main).\nWill Urbit development be ongoing in 2025?\n---If there are at least 3 commits in the period 2025-01-01 to 2025-03-01, this question resolves positively. \n---The commit must be made publicly on the codebase. Currently, [this is on Github](https://github.com/urbit/port/commits/main). If it moves, the official codebase at the new location will be used. \n---If the codebase becomes closed, admins judge whether development can be said to be ongoing, based on activity of the developer team elsewhere (e.g., are they actively promoting the project on [social media](https://twitter.com/urbit)? and [the project blog](https://urbit.org/blog)?). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:35:29.870Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-26T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-02-28T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3071/will-roger-federer-win-another-grand-slam-title/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Grand Slam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Slam_%28tennis%29) tournaments, also called majors, is an annual tennis event. The Grand Slam itinerary consists of the Australian Open in mid January, the French Open around late May through early June, Wimbledon in June-July, and the US Open in August-September.\n[Roger Federer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer) has won 20 Grand Slam singles titles—the most in history by a male player, [according to the tennis website Tennis-x](https://www.tennis-x.com/grand-slam-finals/roger-federer.php).\nWill Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?\nQuestion resolves negatively upon Federer's retirement or death, and positively upon reports that he won his 21st Grand Slam.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:39:13.920Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-07T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-19T13:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T13:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will it be legal at any point to pay taxes in Bitcoin in the U.S. before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7509/paying-us-taxes-in-bitcoin/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is complementary to another on the [legality of Bitcoin](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7209/will-bitcoin-possession-be-illegal/). Measuring legality requires a cluster of angles.\nWill it be legal at any point to pay taxes in Bitcoin in the U.S. before 2030?\nQuestion resolves positively if at any point before January 1st, 2030, there exist an IRS publication at [irs.gov](http://irs.gov), that explains or gives instructions on how to pay taxes to the IRS with Bitcoin.\n1-- \nSome crypto payment services work by exchanging the crypto for fiat at the point of transaction, and then sends fiat. That doesn't count -- what the IRS must receive and accept is the Bitcoin.\n2-- \nThere is no requirement for the IRS to then hold onto that Bitcoin after receiving it, they could sell if for USD or anything else. It is only required that they accept it for the transaction.\n3-- \nIt can't be part of a punitive action by the IRS nor another part of the government. It must be that the person was making an otherwise-normal payment toward their income taxes or capital gains tax, in good legal standing. If the IRS seized their crypto holdings due to illegal activity, that is not the spirit of the question.\n4-- \nThere is no requirement that the Bitcoin transaction be on-chain. If the IRS accepted a custodial transfer of Bitcoin that was held by a bank in trust on behalf of the taxpayer, or if the taxpayer sent the Bitcoin using a lightning network payment channel, or if they sent it using a sidechain, or sent it using a wrapped BTC on another blockchain -- those are all acceptable. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:18:02.333Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)\nThe [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll)\nThis question asks: In the United States presidential election of 2024, will a member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following individuals:\n--- \nDonald Trump\n--- \nDonald Trump Jr.\n--- \nEric Trump\n--- \nIvanka Trump\n--- \nTiffany Trump\n--- \nMelania Trump\n--- \nBarron Trump\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:01:19.401Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1130,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-09T10:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-07-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8379/nuclear-weapon-with-yield-above-30-mt-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nWhether any country has very high-yield nuclear weapons in its arsenal is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.\nWill any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if, between 2021-11-01 and 2030-01-01, the following two conditions are met:\n1-- \nAt least two credible sources (major governments, scientific associations, or intelligence services) claim that a country most likely has a nuclear weapon with a yield above 30 MT. This weapon may be stockpiled or deployed (but not in development, for example).\n2-- \nNo two independent credible sources with ability to evaluate such a claim contest / deny this claim. Media reports will be counted only to the extent that they reference to such a credible source; news organizations themselves cannot be expected to have means of evaluating such a claim on their own. In the case that there is significant disagreement between these claims Metaculus Admins may, at their discretion, make a judgement about the credibility of these claims, or resolve ambiguously.\nThe Russian Poseidon/Status-6 device, for example, could resolve this question positively if it met these two conditions.\nThis question can resolve positively even if the country has only one such weapon, and even if it has such a weapon sometime before 2030 but no longer has such a weapon at the start of 2030 (e.g., if it test detonates, offensively detonates, or dismantles the weapon before then).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:52:15.501Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3616/will-a-new-amendment-to-the-us-constitution-be-ratified-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The US Constitution has been amended [27 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amendments_to_the_United_States_Constitution) in its history, most recently in 1992. This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that before January 1st 2050 the US constitution received a 28th amendment. Otherwise it resolves negatively.\nThis question will close and resolve 1 hour before any 28th amendment becomes law, if one does.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:53:03.686Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 311,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T19:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "DJT wins 2024 RNOM",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A224",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-10-04T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Rs win WI 2022 Senate",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A157",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1669/if-the-james-webb-space-telescope-is-launched-will-it-succeed-in-transmitting-cosmological-data/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The James Webb Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope) (JWST or \"Webb\") is a space telescope in construction that will be the successor to the Hubble Space Telescope. The JWST will provide greatly improved resolution and sensitivity over the Hubble, and will enable a broad range of investigations across the fields of astronomy and cosmology. The JWST's is currently scheduled for March 2021. \nOne of its goals is observing the most distant events and objects in the universe, such as the formation of the first galaxies. Other goals include understanding the formation of stars and planets, and direct imaging of exoplanets and novas. ([See also JWST YouTube channel for further information](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=073GwPbyFxE)).\nDevelopment began in 1996, but the project has had numerous delays and cost overruns with current budget estimated at around $10 billion. A major source of worry is deployment process. For example, in March 2018, NASA delayed the JWST's launch after the telescope's sunshield ripped during a practice deployment.\n[The deployment process is detailed in this video.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTxLAGchWnA)\nIf the James Webb Space Telescope is launched before 2030, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?\nThe question resolves positively if after the ignition of the launch system designed to launch the JWST, the JWST is either fully functional or has defects, but it is still able to carry out important observations not possible by other means at the time of deployment, as announced by credible sources on cosmological matters, such as [reputable journals](https://www.scimagojr.com/journalrank.php?category=3103) or government space programmes. If launch fails, critically damages the JWST before it succeeds in transmitting cosmological data, or explodes during launch, the question resolves negative.\nImportant: In case JWST is not launched before 2030, this question will resolve ambiguous.\nThe question will resolve when either the telescope is announced fully functional, or a previously impossible observation has been cried out, or based on government agencies announcement from which it will follow that carrying out a previously impossible observation will be very unlikely.\nThe question will close the day before the launch day. Moderators may need to close it retroactively or keep it open for longer than currently set.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.08999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:30:09.949Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 447,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-24T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-08-31T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a G3 geomagnetic storm by March 01, 2022?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GSTORM-011",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If the maximum Planetary K-Index between Issuance (10:00 AM ET/2:00 PM UTC on January 19, 2022) and March 01, 2022 (inclusive) is at least 7 (equivalent to a G3 geomagnetic storm), then the Contract resolves to Yes. Else, the Contract resolves to No.\n\nPlease see GSTORM in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions, as well as further details about the market.\n\nPlease note that the Exchange shall use the date as reported by the Source Agency, and will not make manual time zone adjustments. The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the occurrence of an event that is encompassed in the Payout Criterion, the first 10:00 AM ET following release of all of the data in the period between Issuance and March 01, 2022 or one week following March 01, 2022. The Last Trading Time shall be the first 10:00 AM ET following the occurrence of an event that is encompassed in the Payout Criterion, or 11:59 PM ET on March 01, 2022.. The resolution source is: The maximum Planetary K-index as reported by the Space Weather Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "yes_bid": 18,
- "yes_ask": 20,
- "spread": 2,
- "shares_volume": 4672
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8885/conflict-between-prc--roc-taiwan-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There is growing discussion in the United States about the rising risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait. On March 9th, 2021, U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Philip Davidson [expressed concern](https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/21-03-09-united-states-indo-pacific-command) about the potential for conflict in the next six years. Then on May 1st, 2021, The Economist featured [a cover story](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/05/01/the-most-dangerous-place-on-earth) calling Taiwan “the most dangerous place on Earth.”\nWill there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?\nThis question will resolve positively if any of the following occurs between December 1, 2021 and December 31, 2022:\n--- \nThere are at least three credible government sources reporting an exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China.\n--- \nThere are at least three credible news reports of an exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:17:04.045Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 288,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 July 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2164-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-1-july-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 ([US News & World Report](https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112), [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/india-china-army-commanders-meet-defuse-tensions-80506130)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:03:48.235Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 255,
- "numforecasters": 126,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Elon Musk (attempt to) go to Mars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1598/will-elon-musk-attempt-to-go-to-mars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question). \nWhereas putting anybody on Mars may already seem ambitious enough, Musk has also talked about perhaps going to the red planet himself. In[ an interview with Axios]( https://www.axios.com/elon-musk-mars-space-x-14c01761-d045-4da0-924b-322fb6a109ce.html) Musk estimated his own chances of going to Mars at 70%.\nIt is asked:Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars?\nThis question resolves positive if Elon Musk is launched on a rocket with the intent of going to Mars. It resolves negative if Elon Musk is declared legally dead before launching on a Mars-bound rocket.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:27:10.749Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 532,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Dominic Cummings return to a position of direct power and influence in UK before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7640/dominic-cummings-in-power-again/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Dominic Cummings is a [British political strategist](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominic_Cummings) most known for his role as Chief Advisor to Boris Johnson from 24 July 2019 until 13 November 2020, and for directing the Vote Leave campaign before then.\nRecently, his [substack](https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/high-performance-startup-government) contains the phrase: \"If we’re going to do politics/government much better, we must carefully study some examples.\"\nThis question doesn't concern itself whether Dominic Cummings is going to do politics/government \"much better\", but solely with whether he is \"going to do government\" again.\n\"Being in power\" is a fairly [fuzzy concept](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuzzy_concept), but for the purposes of this question, it is taken to mean: \n---Being employed at least three days a week by any one of: a UK political party, the UK Civil Service, a UK politician, or \n---holding political office in the UK, the EU, or any organization of the [UN system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_System) \nWill Dominic Cummings return to a position of direct political power in the UK before 2050?\nAt question resolution time, a lone Metaculus moderator will consider whether there is a case to be made that resolution is ambiguous. If there is such a case to be made, the question resolves by simple majority of a quorum of 5 Metaculus moderators or admins. Otherwise, the lone Metaculus moderators resolves the question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:22:15.537Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7468/major-famine-in-north-korea-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[North Korea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea) is a country in East Asia, constituting the northern part of the Korean Peninsula. \nAccording to Article 1 of the state constitution, North Korea is an \"independent socialist state.\" It holds elections, though they have been described by independent observers as sham elections, as North Korea is a totalitarian dictatorship, with an elaborate cult of personality around the Kim dynasty: Il-sung, Jong-il, and [current leader Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un). The Workers' Party of Korea, led by a member of the ruling family, is the dominant party and leads the Democratic Front for the Reunification of Korea, of which all political officers are required to be members.\nAccording to Article 3 of the constitution, [Juche](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juche) is the official ideology of North Korea. The means of production are owned by the state through state-run enterprises and collectivized farms. Most services—such as healthcare, education, housing and food production—are subsidized or state-funded. From 1994 to 1998, [North Korea suffered a famine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korean_famine) that resulted in the deaths of 240,000 to 3.5 million people, and the population continues to suffer malnutrition.\nAs of 2021, in the aftermath of the global COVID-19 pandemic, as well as crop failures, [North Korea is facing a 'tense' food shortage](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-57507456), and there are [fears that many people in the country may be at risk of starvation.](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/03/north-korea-facing-major-food-shortage-could-lead-death-millions/)\nWill there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that before 1 January 2025, credible reports indicate that North Korea has suffered from a famine beginning no earlier than 1 January, 2020 that has likely resulted in at least 250,000 deaths. The question resolves negatively if this does not occur.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:16:39.490Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 142,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-30T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Ten or more Supreme Court justices by EOY 2028",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A152",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-14T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7597/milton-convicted-on-federal-fraud-charges/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Trevor Milton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trevor_Milton) is an American [billionaire](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-charges-nikola-founder-trevor-milton-with-lying-investors-2021-07-29/) and the founder and former executive chairman of [Nikola Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikola_Corporation), a publicly-traded American company that presented a number of zero-emission vehicle concepts during the 2016–2020 period.\nIn September 2020, Milton resigned from his position as chairman after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Justice began investigating claims that Milton and Nikola committed securities fraud.\nIn July 2021, [a federal grand jury charged Milton with three counts of criminal fraud for lying about “nearly all aspects of the business” to bolster stock sales of the electric vehicle start-up,](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/29/us-prosecutors-charge-trevor-milton-founder-of-electric-carmaker-nikola-with-three-counts-of-fraud.html) according to [an indictment](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/press-release/file/1418421/download) (PDF). A brief overview of the allegations is available [here.](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/former-nikola-corporation-ceo-trevor-milton-charged-securities-fraud-scheme)\nMilton is charged with two counts of securities fraud and one count of wire fraud. The securities fraud counts carry maximum penalties of 20 and 25 years in prison, respectively. The wire fraud count carries a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison. \n[Milton was freed by a judge on $100 million bond, after pleading not guilty to charges that he misled investors about the status of the electric-vehicle maker.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-29/nikola-founder-trevor-milton-freed-on-100-million-bail?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google) \nUnder terms of his release, he is limited in his movements and barred from contacting investors, other than ones with whom he has a personal relationship. He will live in Utah until his trial.\n[“Trevor Milton is innocent,” his lawyers said in a statement. “This is a new low in the government’s efforts to criminalize lawful business conduct. Every executive in America should be horrified.”](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-29/nikola-founder-trevor-milton-freed-on-100-million-bail?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google)\nMilton is presumed innocent until proven guilty.\nWill Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if Trevor Milton is convicted of any federal charge of wire fraud or securities fraud relating to Nikola Corporation prior to January 1, 2024. State charges are not covered by this question.\nIf no convictions on said charges result before January 1 2024, this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:20:50.637Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will chess be \"weakly solved\" by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/574/will-chess-be-weakly-solved-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to the [Wikipedian article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game), a game is considered weakly solved if an algorithm that secures a win for one player, or a draw for either, against any possible moves by the opponent, from the beginning of the game can be found.\nThe [chess-specific Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solving_chess) quotes some rather long timelines citing the daunting combinatorics, and goes on that\nRecent scientific advances have not significantly changed these assessments. The game of checkers was (weakly) solved in 2007, but it has roughly the square root of the number of positions in chess. Jonathan Schaeffer, the scientist who led the effort, said a breakthrough such as quantum computing would be needed before solving chess could even be attempted, but he does not rule out the possibility, saying that the one thing he learned from his 16-year effort of solving checkers \"is to never underestimate the advances in technology\".\nHere is the question:\nWill chess be weakly solved by 2035? \nChess is considered to having been weakly solved if a researcher makes such a claim and the claim is arguably accepted by academia within a year, in a sense comparable to checkers' solution. Assessment will be made at Jan 1, 2035.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:13:04.707Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 343,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-10-24T05:22:32Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-10T05:22:42Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8980/marcos-wins-2022-philippine-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [next Presidential Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Philippine_presidential_election) in the Philippines is scheduled for May 9, 2022. Incumbent President [Rodrigo Duterte](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rodrigo_Duterte) is inelligble to run for a second term under the Philippine constitution.\nOpinion polling on December 11, 2021 found [Bongbong Marcos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bongbong_Marcos) with a massive lead of 49.2% of respondents in favor, with the next runner-up candidate [Leni Robredo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leni_Robredo) (current Vice President) with 16.2%.\nAs of December 22, 2021, [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7392/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-the-Philippines-in-2022) gives Marcos approximately 76% to win, while Sports betting site [BetOnline](https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/politics-futures/2022-philippine-presidential-election) gives Marcos 1.16 decimal odds (86% probability) to win.\nWill Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?\nThis question will resolve positively if Bongbong Marcos wins the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election, according to official declarations by the Philippine government, or credible media reports.\nIf Marcos withdraws his candidacy or is otherwise not a candidate at the time polls open, this question will resolve ambiguously. This question will be determined by who officially wins the election, regardless of whether the candidate is then inaugurated or performs the duties of the presidency.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:22:24.329Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-25T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-05-08T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-10T16:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least 5 February 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8393/new-start-renewed-until-february-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[New START] ([https://www.state.gov/new-start/](https://www.state.gov/new-start/)) is a nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and the Russian Federation, which was signed on 8 April 2010. After its extension in 2021 it is expected to last until 5 February 2026. We ask if the New START treaty will be renewed again for at least an additional year - that is, whether it will be extended until at least 5 February 2027.\nWill the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least 5 February 2027?\nThis question resolves positively if either of the following conditions occur:\n1-- \nThere are credible reports such as by the [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/USRussiaNuclearAgreements) of New START being extended to at least 5 February 2027. \n2-- \nThere are credible reports of New START being replaced by another nuclear arms control agreement that will last until at least 5 February 2027 and that US officials, Russian officials, and other credible sources describe as a successor to New START.\nIt is not necessary that the renewed or replacement treaty has very similar terms. But note that the second condition would not be met if one or two of the three relevant groups (US officials, Russian officials, or other credible sources) do not describe the treaty as a successor to New START. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.59,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.41000000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:52:56.661Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-02-05T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many votes to confirm Lael Brainard as Fed vice chair by March 31?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7679/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Lael-Brainard-as-Fed-vice-chair-by-March-31",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Lael Brainard (the \"Nominee\") to be Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (the \"Office\").\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; or should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be formally communicated to the United States Senate; the contract identifying the range \"51 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"76 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. The official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source, shall be used to resolve this market. Provided that, once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by any Senator to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "51 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.35714285714285715,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "52 to 54",
- "probability": 0.2589285714285714,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "55 to 57",
- "probability": 0.20535714285714285,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "58 to 60",
- "probability": 0.08928571428571429,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "61 to 63",
- "probability": 0.03571428571428571,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "64 to 66",
- "probability": 0.017857142857142856,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "67 to 69",
- "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "70 to 72",
- "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "73 to 75",
- "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "76 or more",
- "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:06:19.293Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 27119
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "51 or fewer, 52 to 54, 55 to 57, 58 to 60, 61 to 63, 64 to 66, 67 to 69, 70 to 72, 73 to 75, 76 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kamala Harris be on the 2024 Democratic ticket?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7629/Will-Kamala-Harris-be-on-the-2024-Democratic-ticket",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris is the 2024 Democratic nominee for either President or Vice President.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.69,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31000000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:04:33.594Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 59682
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Do the Others ever reach King's Landing? (According to A Song of Ice and Fire – the books, not the show)",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/624/do-the-others-ever-reach-kings-landing/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "G.R.R. Martin's epic series \"A Song of Ice and Fire\" has served as the basis for the hit HBO series \"Game of Thrones.\" The two treatments are similar but differ in detail, and Martin has struggled to complete books prior to the parallel events in the series.\nAs of early 2018, there is apparently one more season of the show, and likely [two more book volumes in the works.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire) This question concerns the book series. In it, the Others (or white walkers as they are known in the show) are a mysterious race living north of The Wall in Westeros. For now.\nBy the end of the book series, will the Others reach King's Landing? \nFor positive resolution, at least one White Walker and at least 100 undead must be within sighting distance of King's Landing. (Scouting via an undead Dragon does not count.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:14:46.531Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 96,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-01-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-05-18T13:30:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7173/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Kathy Hochul",
- "probability": 0.8288288288288288,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jumaane Williams",
- "probability": 0.04504504504504504,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tom Suozzi",
- "probability": 0.036036036036036036,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrew Cuomo",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bill de Blasio",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alessandra Biaggi",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrew Yang",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Thomas DiNapoli",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Letitia James",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Hillary Clinton",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kirsten Gillibrand",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Steve Bellone",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:57:08.104Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 3410449
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Kathy Hochul, Jumaane Williams, Tom Suozzi, Andrew Cuomo, Bill de Blasio, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Alessandra Biaggi, Andrew Yang, Thomas DiNapoli, Letitia James, Hillary Clinton, Kirsten Gillibrand, Steve Bellone"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will New York (excluding NYC) average less than 3,000 new COVID-19 cases per day by March?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/SCASE-021",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If the seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for New York (excluding NYC) is below 3,000 for a single day between Issuance and March 01, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. \n\nNote that this Contract may close and expire early. It will expire the first 10:00 AM following the CDC reporting the event has occured, the first 10:00 AM following data being released for March 01, 2022, or 10:00 AM on March 08, 2022.. The resolution source is: The seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for New York (excluding NYC) according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.06000000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "yes_bid": 85,
- "yes_ask": 94,
- "spread": 9,
- "shares_volume": 7600
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. \nOf the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.\nBy November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?\nResolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.\nIf there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:42:54.375Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 362,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-11-16T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-11-17T04:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the percentage of truck-bound containers that remain in terminals for more than 5 days at US West Coast ports in September 2022, according to the Pacific Merchant Shipping Association (PMSA)?",
- "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
- "platform": "Good Judgment",
- "description": "Supply chain issues are a major concern, with US West Coast ports being identified as a principal cause of the congestion. The outcome will be determined by the September 2022 truck-bound \"Dwell Time in Days, % > 5 days\" container metric in the October 2022 PMSA West Coast Trade Report, expected the third week of October 2022. The October 2021 PMSA report indicates that this metric was 32.8% for September 2021 (see page 15).",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Lower than 9.0%",
- "probability": 0.42,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 9.0% and 16.0%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher than 16.0% but lower than 23.0%",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 23.0% and 30.0%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher than 30.0%",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-09T17:00:03.974Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4
- },
- "extra": {
- "superforecastercommentary": "
BACKGROUND: \n \n Opened 29 October 2021 \n \n Supply chain issues are a major concern, with US West Coast ports being identified\n as a principal cause\n of the congestion.\n The outcome will be determined by the September 2022 truck-bound \"Dwell\n Time in Days, % > 5 days\" container metric in the October 2022 PMSA\n West Coast Trade Report, expected the third week of October 2022. The\n October 2021 PMSA report indicates that this metric was 32.8%\n for September 2021 (see page 15). \n \n Examples of Superforecaster commentary in italics \n \n \n AT A GLANCE: \n \n 2 February 2022 - Supply chain issues emerged as a major concern for US\n ports in 2021, with US West Coast ports reporting an all-time high backlog\n of cargo ships in October. According to Good Judgment's professional\n Superforecasters, the base rate for \"dwell time\" of more than five days\n for the month of September is about 4-5.0%. Also, there are measures being\n introduced to reduce the present backlog back down to that level. The\n Superforecasters therefore see a 35% probability that the percentage of\n truck-bound containers that remain in terminals for more than five days at\n US West Coast ports will be lower than 9.0% in September 2022. They also\n point out, however, that a higher percentage is possible due to the\n lingering backlogs and continued Covid outbreaks. They see an increasing\n 24% probability that 9-16% of the containers will remain in terminals for\n more than 5 days next September. \n \n \n
This is a preview only. \n \n FutureFirst subscribers enjoy full access to Good Judgment's\n standard reports containing the consensus forecast and\n Superforecasters' rationales since the launch of the question. \n Learn more about FutureFirst\n to follow questions that matter to your organization. \n \n
\n \n
[Start of Preview] \n
\n \n SUPERFORECASTER COMMENTARY HIGHLIGHTS: \n \n 20 Jan 22 - Comment: Historically, numbers between 9% and 16% are not\n so uncommon. \n \n 15 Jan 22 - Comment: In the December report, the number was 50%. That\n was clearly from holiday-related issues but speaks to the scale of the\n problem. I think the supply chain issues will take a couple of years to\n work out, particularly with continued Covid outbreaks slowing the\n movement of goods. My expectation is that by September we will be better\n off but not back to normal. \n \n 31 Dec 21 - Comment: From LA Dwell Report Chart,\n 12/30, it appears key dwell times are on the mend. \n \n
[End of Preview] \n
\n \n
"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 9.0%, Between 9.0% and 16.0%, inclusive, Higher than 16.0% but lower than 23.0%, Between 23.0% and 30.0%, inclusive, Higher than 30.0%"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 presidential election in Brazil?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2207-who-will-win-the-2022-presidential-election-in-brazil",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Brazil's next presidential election could lead to a showdown between incumbent President Bolsonaro and former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ([France 24](https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20210309-lula-s-return-opens-door-to-bolsonaro-showdown-in-polarised-brazil), [Superior Electoral Court](https://english.tse.jus.br/the-brazilian-electoral-system/elections-1)). Brazil's next presidential election is scheduled for 2022 with the first round of voting to take place on 2 October 2022, and a runoff is scheduled for 30 October 2022 if needed.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Jair Bolsonaro",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "João Doria",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ciro Gomes",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sérgio Moro",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Another candidate",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:02:25.297Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 180,
- "numforecasters": 82,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Jair Bolsonaro, João Doria, Ciro Gomes, Sérgio Moro, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Another candidate"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There is an active question on [\"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result.\nScotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum.\nThe question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum?\n---This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held. \n---It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise. \n---In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:16:24.647Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 168,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 presidential election in Colombia?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2209-who-will-win-the-2022-presidential-election-in-colombia",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "With President Iván Duque Márquez term limited, the race to be the next president of Colombia is wide open ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/latin-america-is-in-danger-of-going-back-to-the-old-normal), [Americas Quarterly](https://americasquarterly.org/article/meet-the-candidates-colombia), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-02/candidate-feared-by-investors-leads-colombian-presidential-poll)). The first round of Colombia's next presidential election is scheduled for 29 May 2022, with a runoff scheduled for 19 June 2022, if needed.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Sergio Fajardo",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Juan Manuel Galán",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alejandro Gaviria",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Federico Gutiérrez",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rodolfo Hernández",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Gustavo Petro",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Another candidate",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:02:20.714Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 182,
- "numforecasters": 96,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Sergio Fajardo, Juan Manuel Galán, Alejandro Gaviria, Federico Gutiérrez, Rodolfo Hernández, Gustavo Petro, Another candidate"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be the Democratic nominee in the TX-30 House election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7630/Who-will-be-the-Democratic-nominee-in-the-TX-30-House-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2022 election to the United States House of Representatives from Texas' Thirtieth Congressional District.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Jasmine Crockett",
- "probability": 0.8333333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jessica Mason",
- "probability": 0.08333333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jane Hamilton",
- "probability": 0.046296296296296294,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Vonciel Jones Hill",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Zachariah Manning",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Abel Mulugheta",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Shenita Cleveland",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:04:37.636Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 9378
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Jasmine Crockett, Jessica Mason, Jane Hamilton, Vonciel Jones Hill, Zachariah Manning, Abel Mulugheta, Shenita Cleveland"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the annual rate of headline inflation in the US, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), in June 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2048-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-headline-inflation-in-the-us-as-measured-by-the-consumer-price-index-cpi-in-june-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The CPI is a measure of inflation calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2022 and the outcome will be determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the BLS for \"All items\" in July 2022 ([BLS](https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm)). For May 2021, the rate was 5.0%.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 0.0%",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 0.0% and 2.0%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 2.0% but less than 3.0%",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 3.0% and 4.0%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 4.0% but less than 5.0%",
- "probability": 0.32,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "5.0% or more",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:05:21.667Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1298,
- "numforecasters": 577,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 0.0%, Between 0.0% and 2.0%, inclusive, More than 2.0% but less than 3.0%, Between 3.0% and 4.0%, inclusive, More than 4.0% but less than 5.0%, 5.0% or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8589/the-us-re-ratification-of-inf-treaty-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Wikipedia states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermediate-Range_Nuclear_Forces_Treaty):\n\"The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty was an arms control treaty between the United States and the Soviet Union (and its successor state, the Russian Federation) signed in 1987. The INF Treaty banned all of the two nations' land-based ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and missile launchers of different ranges, excluding sea-launched missiles. \n[...] Amidst continuing growth of China's missile forces, US President Donald Trump announced on 20 October 2018 that he was withdrawing the US from the treaty due to supposed Russian non-compliance. The United States claimed another reason for the withdrawal was to counter a Chinese arms buildup in the Pacific, including within the South China Sea, as China was not a signatory to the treaty. The US formally suspended the treaty on 1 February 2019, and Russia did so on the following day in response. The US formally withdrew from the treaty on 2 August 2019.\"\nThe likelihood of the US re-joining the INF Treaty has implications for nuclear risk both directly (as the treaty plausibly reduces nuclear risk) and as a proxy of geopolitical tensions and the health of diplomatic relations between Russia and the US.\nBy 2024, will the US officially announce it intends to re-join the INF Treaty or a successor treaty?\nThis question resolves positively if, between the question opening and 2024, there are credible reports that US President has announced it (unconditionally) intends to either (1) re-join the INF Treaty or (2) sign a new arms control treaty which the President describes as the successor to the INF Treaty. In the latter case, ratification by 2024 isn't necessary (just signing), and, for simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess the President on whether this treaty really is a successor to the INF Treaty. \nFor positive resolution, it would not be sufficient for the US President to make a conditional announcement, such that as the US intends to re-join the INF Treaty if Russia takes some particular action that Russia is not already taking.\nConversely, positive resolution does not require that the US actually re-join the INF Treaty (or sign a successor treaty) by 2024. Positive resolution also does not require that Russia announce it intends to re-join the INF Treaty.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:01:53.607Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3460/will-there-be-at-least-200-companies-developing-technologies-to-defeat-aging-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In a publicly available spreadsheet, accessible [here](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/), Karl Pfleger has maintained a list of for-profit companies that are confirmed to be working to slow or reverse aging in humans. His criterion for including a company is outlined [here](http://agingbiotech.info/about/what_counts_as_aging.html), and only includes those companies that aim to deliver a product that will undo or slow down molecular damage from aging. Anti-aging cosmetic companies do not count by this criterion.\nAs of January 6th, 2020, there are 126 companies listed in the spreadsheet, but progress has been rapid in recent years. More companies were created from 2016-2018 than were created in the entire period listed before that, from 2009-2015. If growth continues at its current pace, then the number of companies will surpass 200 by 2025. However, if the number does not reach 200, this would imply that growth must have slowed down at some point.\nThis question resolves positively if there are at least 200 companies listed on [this](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/) spreadsheet (or the spreadsheet that is a clear successor to that one) on January 1st 2025. If there are fewer, it resolves negatively.\nIf the spreadsheet is no longer being maintained, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:50:13.881Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 155,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3238/will-turkey-be-a-nato-member-continuously-until-1-january-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [North Atlantic Treaty Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance between 29 North American and European countries. The organization implements the [North Atlantic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty) that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party. \n[In 1952, Turkey joined NATO.](https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/greece_and_turkey_join_nato_london_22_october_1951-en-c193a825-2f1c-4e12-b26d-d35fabc6559f.html)\nIn recent years, Turkey's leader [Recep Tayyip Erdoğan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan) has been widely [criticised as an authoritarian.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#Authoritarianism) Further, Turkey's [military incursions into Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_offensive_into_north-eastern_Syria) have caused some to [ask if Turkey will continue to be a NATO member, or if it could be suspended or expelled.](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/)\nHowever, no existing provision in the North Atlantic Treaty provides for the suspension or expulsion of a NATO member.\nThis question asks: Will Turkey continue to be a NATO member until 1 January 2025, with no suspension, expulsion, or voluntary withdrawal during the intervening period?\nThis question resolves positively if Turkey is a NATO member on 1 January 2025, and has been so continuously from the date this question opens. The question resolves negatively if Turkey is suspended or expelled from NATO, or if it withdraws of its own accord, at any time before 1 January 2025.\nIf before this question resolves NATO is dissolved, or changed in structure or operation so substantially that Metaculus administrators believe it is no longer prudent to continue this question, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:43:37.552Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 236,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 September 2022, will the World Trade Organization (WTO) officially agree to grant waivers for intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccine technology?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2234-before-1-september-2022-will-the-world-trade-organization-wto-officially-agree-to-grant-waivers-for-intellectual-property-protections-for-covid-19-vaccine-technology",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Efforts within the WTO to agree on patent waivers for COVID-19 vaccines stalled in 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/cyril-ramaphosa-says-the-world-must-end-vaccine-apartheid), [US News & World Report](https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-10-04/a-year-after-covid-vaccine-waiver-proposal-wto-talks-are-deadlocked), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/02/intl_business/wto-trips-waiver-ip-india-south-africa-coronavirus-pandemic/index.html)). While consensus among all 164 member states is sought for WTO decisions, an agreement to grant waivers could be made by a vote of three-fourths of member states ([WTO](https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/org1_e.htm), [SDG Knowledge Hub](https://sdg.iisd.org/commentary/policy-briefs/as-vaccine-roll-out-begins-wto-members-intensify-debate-over-policy-solutions/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:01:34.521Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 213,
- "numforecasters": 155,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3629/will-the-national-popular-vote-interstate-compact-reach-majority-in-the-electoral-college-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [National Popular Vote Interstate Compact](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact) is a an agreement among states to award all of their electoral votes to the candidate with the highest popular vote, conditional on enough states agreeing that the total electoral vote count would secure a majority in the electoral college. In effect, the agreement means that if enough states sign on, the popular vote will determine the outcome of presidential elections. So far [states representing 196 electoral votes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact#Adoption) have signed on, which is 73% of the way to the 270 required to obtain a majority in the Electoral College.\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that states representing at least half of Electoral College votes have signed the NPVIC before 2030.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:53:51.096Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 210,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4678/will-at-least-one-us-state-secede-from-the-union-before-31-december-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The United States of America has in the past acquired new territories, such as the [Alaskan purchase of 1867](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Purchase), and the purchase of the [former Danish West Indies in 1917](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_West_Indies). Sometimes territories have changed status, such as when [Hawaii became a state in 1959](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Admission_Act). However, no state has so far left the union without a civil war ensuing and eventually causing its [reintegration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War). However, there are currently active secessionist movements in several US states, some which have appreciable levels of support. A 2014 poll showed that [58% of Alaskans favored a secession from the union](https://www.unz.com/anepigone/support-for-secession-by-state/). Will a US state agree to leave the union before end of 2030?\nThe question resolves in the affirmative if any US state leave the union. \nResolution details:\n--- \nThe procedure to leave the US state need not go through official legislative channels (e.g. introducing a bill to leave the union and this bill receives majority support in the state legislature)\n------In case the process does not occur through official legislative channels, the question resolves positively if credible news media reports that the US State has seceded, or has been ejected out of the union \n--- \nPositive resolution requires the relevant state to have existed at least one year prior to its secession\n------For example, granting entry to the union to some territory, and subsequently revoking it within one year is not sufficient for positive resolution \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:08:47.522Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 143,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-25T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The invention of nuclear weapons gave humanity the technical capacity to cause devastation on a hitherto unseen scale. Although there have been no nuclear attacks since the Second World War, we have come close to inadvertent and intentional nuclear war on a number of occasions.\nThe Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 was a direct and dangerous confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War and was the moment when the two nuclear superpowers came closest to nuclear conflict. U.S. president John F. Kennedy estimated the odds of nuclear war at \"somewhere between one out of three and even\". \nTwenty events that might be considered ‘near-miss’ incidents – incidents that could potentially have resulted in unintended nuclear detonation or explosion – [have been reported in declassified documents](https://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/). There are potentially more ‘near-misses’ that have remained classified and concealed. Moreover, most of these incidents on our timeline were reported by US sources, and there is no reason to believe that the opposing superpower had fewer incidents, or that there have been zero incidents in China, the UK, France, Israel, India, Pakistan or North Korea. \nCurrently, there are [an estimated total of 14,185 nuclear weapons](https://www.ploughshares.org/world-nuclear-stockpile-report) in existence, of which russia and the USA possess 13400. The remained is divided between (in descending order of number of weapons possessed) France, China, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea.\nAlthough tensions between the US and Russia have eased somewhat since the Cold War the geopolitical situation could become more unstable over the next few decades. Another possible intentional nuclear war is between India and Pakistan. The two countries have gone to war four times since then, in 1947, 1965, 1974 and 1999, and have been on the brink of war as recently as 2008. Pakistan has pledged to meet any Indian attack on its territory with a retaliatory nuclear strike. Most recently, the world has witnessed displays of brinkmanship by North Korea and the US with explicit threats of nuclear warfare.\nAlthough initial effects from such a nuclear exchange would be horrible, the after-effects could be worse. A nuclear exchange could cause a [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) – a release of black carbon into the atmosphere. [According to some studies](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013EF000205), this would result in the blocking the Sun’s thermal energy, and lowering temperatures regionally and globally for several years, opening up new holes in the ozone layer protecting the Earth from harmful radiation, reducing global precipitation by about 10%, triggering crop failures, and resulting in widespread food shortages\n[Recent calculations](https://academic.oup.com/isr/article/6/4/135/1826263) of the dust, particulates and smoke thrust into the atmosphere by as few as 100 nuclear weapons indicate that even a regional war could have major impact on the planet’s atmosphere and climate.\nThe fact that we’ve never had a mass-casualty accidental nuclear detonation or explosion might suggest that some estimates of the odds of nuclear war –such as John F. Kennedy’s– are too gloomy. [Others have pointed out that the strength of this evidence is perhaps surprisingly weak](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/W6-Observer-selection-effects.pdf): if nuclear war removes many observers, then realizations of world history we see are unlikely to have included nuclear war. Hence observers in surviving worlds will see the world to be much safer than it actually is. \nIn the [headline question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/) to this series, I defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years.\nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of nuclear weapons?\nThe question resolves positively if a global nuclear catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no such global catastrophe happens. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:24:27.770Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 274,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a nationalized organization?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8325/nationalized-organization-develops-first-agi/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) asks When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?.\nToday, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. Other possible institutions might be nationalized corporations, governments generally, and non-profit organizations.\nNationalization of corporations that are working on AGI might happen due to the government perceiving the risks and power imbalance associated with a private organization with AGI technology to be unacceptable. \nWill the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a nationalized organization?\nThis question will resolve positively if the AI system that resolves the question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) was developed by a research group from a nationalized organization.\nIf the respective AI system is developed under a collaborative effort between two or more different institutions, the question resolves positively for both. For example, if OpenAI and UC Berkeley's CHAI had joined forces for the responsible project, this would count for both for-profit corporation and university. \nSister questions\n---[Non-profit organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8328/non-profit-organization-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Government project develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8327/government-project-develops-first-agi/) \n---[University group develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8326/university-group-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Corporation develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8324/corporation-develops-first-agi/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:49:23.042Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a university?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8326/university-group-develops-first-agi/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) asks When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?.\nToday, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. Other possible institutions might be nationalized corporations, governments generally, and non-profit organizations.\nWill the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a university?\nThis question will resolve positively if the AI system that resolves the question [Date first AGI is publicly known](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) was developed by a research group from a university.\nIf the respective AI system is developed under a collaborative effort between two or more different institutions, the question resolves positively for both. For example, if OpenAI and UC Berkeley's CHAI had joined forces for the responsible project, this would count for both for-profit corporation and university. \nSister questions\n---[Nationalized organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8325/nationalized-organization-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Non-profit organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8328/non-profit-organization-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Government project develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8327/government-project-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Corporation develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8324/corporation-develops-first-agi/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:49:28.182Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8537/china-on-nuclear-weapons-employment-by-ai/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on intersections between nuclear risk and AI. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8531/intersections-between-nuclear-risk-and-ai/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.\nBy 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?\nThe question resolves positively if there are at least three reputable sources that by 2024 state that China has made such a clear and public affirmation. This affirmation must be an official statement by one of the following: the President of the People's Republic of China; the Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China; the Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress; head of one of the Chinese military services; any government or army body dedicated to overseeing the nuclear arms program, nuclear policy, etc. (or a top official of such a body); or an important Chinese diplomacy official such as the Chinese Ambassador to the US. We will also count claims made by a spokesperson for the aformentioned people and organizations (unless contested by the person or another key person from the organization).\n(If a forecaster feels there's a decent chance such an affirmation would be made by a person or entity whose membership on that list is debatable or by a person or entity who isn't on that list but should be, please raise that in the comments.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:58:35.062Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Democrats?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7243/1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-democrats/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/) \n---[If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Republicans?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7244/1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-republican/) \nPuerto Rico was aquired as a territory of the USA in 1898. Since then, there has been ongoing discussion to admit [Puerto Rico as a US state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico), though there has been [much disagreement among Puerto Ricans](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_political_status_for_Puerto_Rico) among factions who favor statehood, favor national independence, or who favor the status quo.\nIn a related debate on [statehood for the District of Columbia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/), the Republican Party is opposed to statehood, [predicting that Democrats would gain an advantage in the Senate:](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/may/03/washington-dc-statehood-51-stars)\n“If DC were to become a state, Democrats would gain two reliably liberal seats in the US Senate,” said Emma Vaughn, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee. “They cite various reasons for why they want DC statehood, but the truth is that these extra Senate seats would be a rubber stamp for their radical, far-left agenda.”\nExpecting DC to elect 2 Democratic Senators upon statehood is [almost certain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_the_District_of_Columbia), but the outcome of a Puerto Rican statehood is less so. The Republican Party's [official platform from 2008 to 2020 stated:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico#Mainland_support)\nWe support the right of the United States citizens of Puerto Rico to be admitted to the Union as a fully sovereign state after they freely so determine.\nThe Democratic Party has also expressed support of PR statehood, on the condition that it is will of PR's citizens in a fair referendum.\nSeveral referendums have been held on PR's future political status; [in 2020, 52% of voters favored statehood.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Puerto_Rican_status_referendum)\nIf Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Democrats?\nThis question will resolve positively if the first 2 elected Senators of Puerto Rico are both members of the Democratic Party, as of their date of election. It will resolve negatively if they are a member of any other party, including if they are independents who caucus with Democrats.\nIf Puerto Rico is not a state at any time prior to 2035-01-01, or if Puerto Rico will not elect at least 2 senators by that time, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nSenators must be elected by the general populace. If Senators are appointed for PR, this question will wait to resolve on the first Senators who are elected. This question will resolve for the first 2 elected senators, regardless of whether those senators are elected in the same year or in the same election.\nIf both elected senators are members of a Democratic Party Affiliate (for example, the [Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota_Democratic%E2%80%93Farmer%E2%80%93Labor_Party)), they will be considered Democrats for this question, assuming the Democratic Party does not endorse or support competing candidates in Puerto Rico (on or immediately prior to the general election day).\nSenators will be \"elected prior to 2035-01-01\" if their election day is prior to 2035-01-01, regardless of when they are projected by election media, or when they take office. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:07:55.080Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-26T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-03-17T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden be impeached by June 30, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7485/Will-Joe-Biden-be-impeached-by-June-30,-2023",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. House of Representatives, by simple majority, votes to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Joe Biden prior to either the End Date listed below or the end of President Biden's Presidency, whichever occurs first. \nNeither trial nor conviction by the U.S. Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 06/30/2023 11:59 AM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:01:16.752Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 35633
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9513/boris-johnson-charged-with-a-crime-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Prime Minister of the UK, has been accused of allowing and attending parties at 10 Downing Street which went against the rules enacted under the Coronavirus Act. He is also alleged to have lied to Parliament about this and other matters. \nSeparately, there is an [ongoing](https://goodlawproject.org/case/100m-contract/) [scandal](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59968037) regarding government awards of PPE contracts for hundreds of millions of pounds to unqualified persons who were close to the Conservative party. It is possible that offences including misconduct in public office or Bribery Act violations have been committed during this period.\nThere have been a number of additional events which have called Johnson's integrity into question, including the [allegation](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56878663) that he concealed evidence from the person investigating who paid for his flat refurbishment. It is possible that he will be charged with a criminal offence over this or other matters.\nWill Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Boris Johnson is formally charged with any criminal offence on or before 31st December 2022 (UK time). Note that he doesn't need to be convicted of an offence, only charged. If he is arrested but not charged, this question resolves negatively. \nFor purposes of this question, being formally found in contempt of parliament does not constitute being charged with a crime. \nThis question will resolve positively based on an announcement by any UK police force or the Crown Prosecution Service or any other competent authority that Boris Johnson has been formally charged with any criminal offence. It will also resolve positively if there are widespread reports in credible media that Johnson has been charged with an offence.\nIf Johnson is charged on or before 31st Dec 2022 but the announcement is not made until 2023, the question still resolves positively. I have delayed the resolve date to 8th Jan 2023 to account for this possibility. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:43:27.646Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-30T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-08T12:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8675/space-debris-causes-fatality-before-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Space debris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_debris) pose a significant threat to spacecraft in Earth orbit. Varying in size from tiny collision fragments to large non-operational satellites, and travelling at high velocities, a collision even with a small piece of debris can knock a satellite out of commission. The number of debris keeps growing as space gets more crowded and collisions between them cause pieces of debris to further fragment. If this trend continues unabated and a critical debris density is reached, a run-away effect may happen where collisions between objects cause a cascade, a sort of space debris chain reaction. This scenario is called the [Kessler syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome) and can make low Earth orbit exceedingly difficult to use.\nDespite mitigation measures being put in place, space debris will remain a significant risk to spacecraft at least for the near future. In addition to astronauts on the ISS and other planned space stations, a rise in private human spaceflight and space tourism is expected, potentially putting more humans in space than ever. A scenario is possible, as depicted e.g. in the film [Gravity](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1454468/), where humans are put in danger by space debris. In November 2021, a Russian anti-satellite missile test created 1,500 pieces of debris, sending the [7 astronauts aboard the ISS](https://apnews.com/article/space-exploration-science-business-697f5aa719331ab6e74102ebb06b52d8) to their capsules for safety.\nWill space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?\nThe question resolves as positive if, between January 1, 2021 and January 1, 2035, a fatality in space is attributed to space debris, according to major national space agencies or credible media reports.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:07:04.683Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-23T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2034-12-31T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-31T11:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be 10 million autonomous cars in the US before there are 1 million in-car augmented reality users?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/285/autonomous-cars-precede-ar-users-in-cars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Autonomous vehicles and virtual/augmented reality are slated for major advances and potential widespread adoption over the next 20 years. Which of these will come true first:\n1) 10 million fully autonomous vehicles on the road. (We'll use the definition from an earlier questions: available in at least two US states, and can autonomously carry its passenger between two generic drivable destinations that are 20-100 km apart via public roads in those states?) \n2) A reasonably approximated 1 million in-use copies of an augmented reality game that overlays items/people on actual roads during driving that are intended for the driver to see. It need not be Grant Theft Auto (though it might!), but the overlay should not be just a practical, useful informational overlay.\nOption 1 is likely to make the roads somewhat safer; option two likely to make them much less so. \nNote that option two could be satisfied by a cell-phone based, dashboard mounted platform, (\"Pokemon auto\"), though this is highly likely to be illegal. It could also be satisfied by a more mature augmented reality system in a safer way.\nThe question resolves as positive if the autonomous vehicles come first, and false if the augmented reality game comes first or if neither is in place as of Jan 1, 2025.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:09:10.933Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 110,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-07-15T15:16:32Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2017-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will it once again be possible to travel between London and New York City by any commercially available means in under three hours by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1642/will-it-once-again-be-possible-to-travel-between-london-and-new-york-city-by-any-commercially-available-means-in-under-three-hours-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "London and New York City are the world's two most important financial centers, and as of 2018 are the only cities in the world to have ever been ranked Alpha++ by the [Globalization and World Cities Research Network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network)\nThe fastest transatlantic airliner flight was from New York's JFK Airport to London's Heathrow Airport on 7 February 1996 by the British Airways Concorde designated G-BOAD in 2 hours, 52 minutes, 59 seconds from take-off to touchdown aided by a 175 mph (282 km/h) tailwind.\nSince the Concorde was retired in 2003, flight times have increased substantially. The fastest commercial flight operated since 2003 [seems to have been made in 2018](https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/norwegian-plane-boeing-harold-van-dam-new-york-jfk-london-gatwick-travel-holiday-a8169496.html) by a Norwegian Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner departing from New York's JFK reached London Gatwick in 5 hours, 13 minutes.\nThis question asks: At any point before 2030, will it once again be possible by any commercial means to travel between London and New York in less than three hours?\nTo resolve positively, at least one living human must make the journey from inside the metropolitan area of either New York City, United States or Greater London, United Kingdom, to inside the metropolitan area of the other city in under three hours any point before January 1 2030 by commercially available means, including chartered privately owned or operated civil aircraft or spacecraft, but not military aircraft or spacecraft.\nThe clock starts at the moment the journey itself begins (i.e. excluding time spent checking in, going through a security process, waiting on the tarmac at an airport before takeoff, et cetera.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:29:06.309Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 343,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3118/will-extinction-rebellion-or-a-splinter-group-be-declared-a-terrorist-organisation-by-a-g7-country-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Extinction Rebellion has organised protests to disrupt traffic in cities around the world, and had people mass arrested. It is conceivable that the main group or a splinter group could begin to engage in more extreme activities and be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country.\nResolves positively if the government of a G7 country declares Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, a terrorist organisation before 1/1/2025. Resolves ambiguously on 1/1/2025 if a claimed splinter group is declared a terrorist organisation but there is no consensus that it grew from Extinction Rebellion.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:41:14.715Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 223,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-30T14:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T14:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8394/hemp-attacks-causing-10-million-fatalities/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to the [US EMP Commission (2004)](http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf):\n\"Several potential adversaries have or can acquire the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP). [...] EMP is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences. EMP will cover the wide geographic region within line of sight to the nuclear weapon. It has the capability to produce significant damage to critical infrastructures and thus to the very fabric of US society, as well as to the ability of the United States and Western nations to project influence and military power.\"\nOther questions in this tournament asks [how likely a HEMP attack is by 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7412/hemp-attack-before-2024/) and how many such attacks would occur if at least one does (link will be added soon). This question is about how much harm would occur if one or more HEMP attacks occur. For further context on this question, see [Nuclear risk research idea: Nuclear EMPs](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1I_4XTKOytSIm4q--BH3cK8R7Yg7K-KbydKtPLTJJ90I/edit#heading=h.4afvzod1qk1t) and [[rough notes] Harms from nuclear conflict via EMPs, fallout, or ozone depletion](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ws5i4_axkPLO95oIhVvE2_5b2xGcR-ktD9gRHUDjX_Y/edit).\nFor this question, a [HEMP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse) is defined as either:\n---a >1 kiloton explosion at greater than 30 kilometer altitude (including detonation in space), or \n---a non-nuclear device which produces similar or larger EMP field levels over similar or larger areas compared to a HEMP detonation \nIf one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?\nThis question resolves positively if at least one HEMP attack occurs before 2030-01-01 and the total fatalities caused by all HEMP attacks by 2030-01-01 is above 10 million, according to at least 3 estimates from credible sources by 2030-01-31. Fatalities from all HEMP attacks in this time period will be counted towards positive resolution, even if they are from separate countries and separate conflicts. \nThe question resolves negatively if at least one HEMP attack occurs by 2030 but there aren't at least 3 credible sources which estimate the total fatalities caused to be above 10 million. \nThe question resolves ambiguously if no HEMP attack occurs by 2030, or if fewer than 3 credible sources provide any estimates about the number of fatalities from HEMP attacks by 2030.\nNo attempt will be made to second-guess credible sources regarding what fatalities should be considered \"caused\" by the HEMP attack(s). This could include fatalities caused by the initial blast of a HEMP attack, the radioactive fallout, or by the infrastructure disruption caused by the HEMP. But estimates of fatalities caused by other bombs or military strikes in the same time place will not be counted as estimates of fatalities caused by the HEMP attack(s). \nHEMPs for testing purposes will not count as HEMP attacks, even if they cause significant damage would not count towards positive resolution. \"HEMPs for testing purposes\" are defined as HEMPs which are claimed as being a test by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:53:02.302Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3125/will-the-united-states-continue-to-be-among-the-20-countries-with-the-largest-deterioration-in-state-stability-over-the-2019-2029-period-according-to-the-fragile-states-index/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Fragile State Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragile_States_Index) is an important metric of government stability. It is published every year [here](https://fragilestatesindex.org/).\nAccording to the [2019 report](https://fragilestatesindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/9511904-fragilestatesindex.pdf) (see page 11), over the 2009 to 2019 period, The US was #12 among the countries with the most rapidly deteriorating Fragile States Index. The US was still among the more stable nations in the world but the trend was clearly in the direction of less stability.\nWill the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the [Fragile States Index](http://%28https://fragilestatesindex.org%29)?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States is amongst the 20 countries with the largest long-term increase (worsening) of fragile state score over the 2019-2029 period.\nIf for some reason, [Fund for Peace](https://fragilestatesindex.org) ceases to publish this index, or their index can no longer be compared historically this question will be ambiguous, unless the [Fund For Peace](https://fundforpeace.org/) designates a successor index that also shows which 20 countries have deteriorated the most over the period 2019 to 2029 from a standpoint of stability.\nIf the United States ceases to exist as a unified nation this question resolves positive.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:41:36.626Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T08:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-05-01T20:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Tim Ryan",
- "probability": 0.9417475728155339,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Morgan Harper",
- "probability": 0.019417475728155338,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Amy Acton",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joyce Beatty",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nan Whaley",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Emilia Sykes",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:56:01.939Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 170139
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Tim Ryan, Morgan Harper, Amy Acton, Joyce Beatty, Nan Whaley, Emilia Sykes"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court justice in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7649/Will-the-Senate-confirm-a-Supreme-Court-justice-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve as Yes if any individual is confirmed to the role of Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the United States Senate subsequent to the launch of this market on December 17, 2021, but before the End Date listed below. Any nomination that does not result in a confirmation shall have no effect on the outcome of this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, \"Justice\" means either a Chief Justice or an Associate Justice.\nConfirmation of a sitting Associate Justice to the position of Chief Justice is sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.06000000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:05:16.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 275043
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/919/will-there-be-armed-conflict-between-racial-groups-in-south-africa-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Recently racial tensions in South Africa have been high. \nThere is an upcoming land expropriation vote which will allow the government to [take land without compensation](https://www.news24.com/Columnists/GuestColumn/land-expropriation-without-compensation-what-does-it-mean-20180304-5). This is an attempt to redistribute land due to [unequal land ownership](https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/sas-land-audit-makes-case-for-land-tax-20180204-2) as well as find productive land. Since the majority of privately owned land is owned by white groups this policy has sparked massive debate. [Some think](https://qz.com/1218309/south-africa-to-take-land-without-compensation-as-zimbabwe-backtracks-on-seizing-white-farms/) this will hurt agricultural production and hurt the economy of the country.\nThis, in addition to the high rate of [farm attacks in South Africa](https://africacheck.org/factsheets/factsheet-statistics-farm-attacks-murders-sa/) has led to conservative [white groups gearing up for a fight](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NyVYaI_V6w), [some have been preparing for a revolution even earlier](https://suidlanders.org/).\nWill there be more than 100 violent deaths of white insurgents before 2023, within a period of 12 months, as reported by a verifiable news outlet? \nThe answer is meant to be indicative of actual armed conflict, as a proxy to the question: will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.32,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:17:10.114Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 196,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-05-26T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-08-01T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T11:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:57:29.635Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 802,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly.\nWill any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date:\n---Donald Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Eric Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:42:27.790Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 194,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-27T18:44:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T18:44:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from any Congressional district in the 2022 election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:55:52.866Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 107016
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will at least 10 of the 20 highest grossing new movies in the year 2050 be remakes of previous movies or continuations of previous movie franchises?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8583/top-movies-in-2050-primarily-franchises/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The prevalence of remakes (such as Aladdin (2019) and Rise of the Planet of the Apes (2011)) and continuing franchises (such as the Marvel Cinematic Universe and the Fast and Furious franchises) has been a topic of discussion and has been used by some as [evidence of a lack of ideas or an aversion to risk in Hollywood](https://news.yahoo.com/theres-reason-why-many-remakes-141000996.html). Others see it as a sign of a stagnant culture. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about culture in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nThe panopticon of social media and state control will lead to cultural stagnation. We already see early hints of this. Consider the remakes of older movies: 2050 will be a stew of remakes of remakes, and familiar and boring intellectual property (like Star Wars) will be king. Creativity vivacity will suffer, especially in the arts and humanities. The coming half-century will be a great one for innovations in finance, engineering, space travel, and artificial intelligence. It will be a terrible one for the arts and basic scientific advancements (like a new physics), for such advancements [require iconoclastic and creative lone individuals](https://rogersbacon.substack.com/p/the-myth-of-the-myth-of-the-lone). This prediction is already augured by judging the 2000-2020 creative period overall in areas like art, music, literature, film, and scientific discoveries, and finding it severely lacking compared to, say, 1950-1970.\nWill at least 10 of the 20 highest grossing new movies in the year 2050 be remakes of previous movies or continuations of previous movie franchises?\nThis resolves positively if at least 10 of the top 20 highest grossing movies in the United States in 2050 are part of a franchise which has previously appeared in a movie released in theaters in the United States. Sequels to previously released movies, spin-off movies containing characters from a previously released movie, and in-universe movies (for example a Star Wars movie containing entirely new characters and settings but canonically in the Star Wars universe) would all count as part of an existing franchise previously appearing in a movie. If theaters are no longer the primary form of new movie releases in 2050 the admins may use their discretion to determine an equivalent metric for the highest grossing movies in the US in 2050.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:01:22.039Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-25T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2041-01-01T05:36:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-07-02T04:37:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be elected governor of Georgia in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2256-who-will-be-elected-governor-of-georgia-in-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "There are 20 Republican-held and 16 Democratic-held state gubernatorial seats up for election in 2022 ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Gubernatorial_elections,_2022), [270 To Win](https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/)). The general election is scheduled for 8 November 2022, with a primary runoff set for 6 December 2022, if needed ([Georgia Secretary of State](https://sos.ga.gov/admin/uploads/2022_State_Short_Calendar9.pdf)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "The Democratic Party candidate",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The Republican Party candidate",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Someone else",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:00:42.682Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "numforecasters": 60,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "The Democratic Party candidate, The Republican Party candidate, Someone else"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump regain a Twitter account in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9163/trump-back-on-twitter-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Donald Trump was famously banned by Twitter [on 8th January 2021](https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/company/2020/suspension) and [other social media](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_media_use_by_Donald_Trump#2021) such as Facebook. There has since been some talk of letting him back on social media, [Facebook decided to keep the ban for 2 years](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/04/facebook-says-donald-trump-to-remain-banned-from-platform-for-2-years-effective-from-jan-7.html). Twitter changed CEO recently, and this could potentially impact decisions.\nWill Donald Trump regain a Twitter account in 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if, at any time between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_trump) has an official [Twitter](https://twitter.com/) account for his personal use (not managed by his staff), and is publicly recognized by Twitter (that is, not an evasion of his ban or against the Twitter terms of service).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:32:08.830Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-21T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a global catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9060/global-catastrophe-causing-near-extinction/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Metaculus' [Ragnarok series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-seriesresults-so-far/) explores threats to the human race. Several define a \"Global Catastrophe\" to mean a period of 5 years or less where the world population declines by 10% or more. Despite humanity's tumultuous history, including [World Wars 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) and [2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I), the [1918 Flu pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I), and the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), the only events likely to meet this criteria would be [the Black Death](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death) of 1347 and the year 560 [Plague of Justinian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plague_of_Justinian). For other estimates of major pandemics, see [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics).\nMetaculus has some other estimates of extinction or near extinction (all estimates as of December 29, 2021):\n---2% [chance of extinction by 2100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/). \n---25% (or less) of extinction [conditional on a decline to 100 million humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/time-of-recovery-following-global-catastrophe/) by year 2345. \n---25% of extinction within 20 years, [conditional on a decline to 400 million humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8103/extinction-if-population-falls-400-million/) by year 2100. \nThe Ragnarok Series attempts to forecast the relative severity of various existential risks, such as Climate, Nuclear War, Artificial Intelligence, Biological Engineering and Biological Weapons, and Nanotechnology. While those these recieve the majority of attention and concern in 2021, there may be risks resulting from unforseen future developments, or risks from dangers currently known but recieving insufficient attention. For this question, we'll ask about the risk of population decline by any cause as a point of comparison.\nRagnarök Question Series: if a global catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?\nThis question will resolve positively if, after the world population declines by 10% (in any period of 5 years or less), the global population is less than 5% of the pre-decline population at any point within 25 years after the catastrophe. This question will resolve negatively if there is a global population decline of 10% in 5 years or less, but there is no population decline of 95% in a 25-year period. If there is no such population decline of 10% in any 5-year period between January 1, 2000 to January 1, 2100, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\n6-- \n[If a global catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9060/global-catastrophe-causing-near-extinction/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n7-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n12- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:26:11.444Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2120-06-15T22:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Foundation airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-foundation-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Foundation will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.3094231675160795432464233112274604",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.6905768324839204567535766887725396",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.518Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "65",
- "liquidity": "2100.00",
- "tradevolume": "3498.36",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x8F309c5765A1707C277a82645E592A34f3EA6777"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will $ETH flip $BTC in market cap in 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-flip-btc-in-market-cap-in-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether the USD-denominated market capitalization of $ETH (Ethereum) will surpass that of $BTC (Bitcoin) at any time by December 31st, 2022, 11:59 PM ET, according to CoinGecko. The resolution source for this market will be the “Market Cap” statistic and historical data section on each of the respective cryptocurrency’s CoinGecko listings currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum. \n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if at any point in 2022 the market cap of $ETH is greater than that of $BTC, often dubbed “The Flippening”. If, by the resolution date, the market cap of $ETH was never greater than that of $BTC at any given state of time, according to CoinGecko, then this market will resolve to “No”. If the links to the sources change, the new changed link sources will be used. In the event that CoinGecko becomes permanently disabled or unavailable, CoinMarketCap will instead be referenced as the resolution source.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1845154182606209463475154114023038",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8154845817393790536524845885976962",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.518Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "128",
- "liquidity": "973.56",
- "tradevolume": "1903.72",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0xA51E296d101CCA57bd3DB32E6ff6C8C48CACEB4E"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7068/meat-or-dairy-tax-in-the-us-or-eu-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [meat or dairy tax](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_tax) is a tax levied on the purchase or consumption of meat and/or other animal products to disincentivize the production or consumption of meat products. \nMeat and dairy production is known to be a disproportional contributor of emissions, attributing approximately half of food-derived GHG emissions, while only accounting for one-third of the dietary energy intake worldwide ([Broeks et al., 2020](https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-020-08590-z)). Hence, many have advocated for a meat production or consumption tax (see [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_tax#Proponents)).\nWill a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if a meat or dairy consumption tax is imposed by the US federal government, or by any country that is a EU member state (at the time when it imposes such a tax), by 2023-01-01 at 12:00PM EST. \n--- \nQualifying taxes include [excise tax](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Excise) (i.e. a per unit tax that applies to a narrow range of products), or a [sales tax](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sales_tax) (i.e. a tax levied on the sale of a good to its final end user and is charged every time that item is sold retail). \n--- \nThe tax must be applied to the meat of any of the following: cattle, pig, sheep, chicken; or to cow milk \n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the consumption tax is applied nation-wide, and that the tax goes into effect by the resolution date.\n--- \nAn increase in VAT specific to meat and dairy products in any member state of the EU will also count towards positive resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:02:58.580Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 146,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-22T23:35:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:35:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8515/by-2050-genetic-engineering-to-raise-iq/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Embryo screening](https://www.pennmedicine.org/for-patients-and-visitors/find-a-program-or-service/penn-fertility-care/embryo-screening/treatments-and-procedures) is the process of examining the genome of an embryo to determine if certain genes or sets of genes are present (the technical term is [preimplantation genetic testing (PGD)](https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/gynecology_obstetrics/specialty_areas/fertility-center/infertility-services/preimplantation-genetic-testing.html)). Examining embryos for genetic defects can allow prospective parents to select embryos without genetic defects to implant and carry to term. Currently this process is most prevalently used during [in vitro fertilization (IVF)](https://www.mayoclinic.org/tests-procedures/in-vitro-fertilization/about/pac-20384716), where eggs are fertilized by sperm in a lab to create the embryo before being implanted into the uterus. IVF in its current form is generally intended to help parents who have trouble conceiving or may be at elevated risk of birth defects.\nEmbyro screening to predict/raise IQ [has been attempted](https://www.science.org/content/article/screening-embryos-iq-and-other-complex-traits-premature-study-concludes) since at least 2019, though it remains controversial and its effectiveness remains unknown. Other plausible means of raising IQ with genetic engineering include [gametogenesis](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7385/first-human-in-vitro-gametogenesis/) (a method of regressing cells into stem cells, then turning into sperm/egg cells, in an interative process), and [CRISPR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing) (editing specific sections of DNA of live organisms with high precision).\nThe potential power and downsides of widespread genetic engineering have been a topic of science fiction for decades, including [Gattaca](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gattaca) or the [Deus Ex](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deus_Ex) series, which imagine societies that are stratified into groups of those who have genetic enhancements and those who don't. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel offered the following predictions for the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nSex and reproduction will become even more separated, and screening multiple embryos for their health before implantation will be common, although not universal. Superficial genetic upgrades for babies (heterochromatic eyes, for instance) will be a trend among the super rich or pop stars. However, there will be no genetic engineering that improves the fundamentals of human traits like intelligence or athleticism or even anything like attractiveness above and beyond all-natural humans—the available technology will still be focused solely on avoiding downsides, like genetic diseases or disabilities. This will ultimately cure a lot of potential suffering, but not lead to some sci-fi split between the “geners” and the “normals,” or anything ridiculous like that.\nBy 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?\nThis question resolves positively if by January 1, 2050, there is at least one commercially available genetic engineering technique shown to raise a patient's IQ by 10 or more points on average. This procedure must be effective on >66% of the public; an intervention focused on patients with [down syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Down_syndrome), for example, does not qualify. Studies from medical journals, statements by government agencies or public health officials may be used as resolution sources if Metaculus Admins find them to be credible.\nA procedure can be considered \"commercially available\" if it is available to the general public for a total cost of less than 25% of the median household income for that nation in that year. \"Genetic engineering techniques\" include embryo selection, gametogenesis, gene therapy, CRISPR editing, and other forms of gene editing or artificial selection. For example in the case of embryo selection, the technique may resolve this question positively if it can select embryos with an average of >10 IQ gain over the median embryo for that patient. Adverse side effects of these procedures are irrelevant for the purposes of this question (with the exception that the patient must typically survive for at least 5 years following the procedure).\nResolution may be delayed up to 2060 to confirm the effectiveness of the genetic engineering techniques. If studies are unclear at this point, the resolution may be delayed, or resolve ambiguously at the discretion of Metaculus Admins.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.43999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:56:56.439Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T18:57:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-12-31T18:57:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will OpenSea launch a token or go public first?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opensea-launch-a-token-or-go-public-first",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether OpenSea will launch a token or go public first. \n\nHaving a live token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the OpenSea product or protocol, and substantiated by OpenSea via the official website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\n“Going public” in this context can be defined as being publicly traded on a stock exchange, regardless of if they list via IPO, direct listing, or some other method. If they are not listed and publicly trading on a stock exchange, that will not satisfy market conditions.\n\nIf the launching a token criteria is met first, the market will resolve to “Token”. If the go public criteria is met first, the market will resolve to “Public”. If OpenSea does not release a token or go public by December 31st, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, or does both at the exact same time, the market will resolve to 50/50.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Token",
- "probability": "0.4821951141974546066050408126973672",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Public",
- "probability": "0.5178048858025453933949591873026328",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.518Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "66",
- "liquidity": "8125.61",
- "tradevolume": "4595.57",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x96F8c98f1eE3c3181559A49E9D24a306E65Cec24"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Token, Public"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will new U.S. home sales be above 800,000 in January?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/HOME-008",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If new U.S. home sales are above 800,000 in January 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see HOME in the Rulebook for all legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThe Expiration Date will be the sooner of the first 10:05 AM ET following the release of the data, or one week after the scheduled release of the data. The Last Trading Date shall be 9:55 AM ET on the day of the scheduled release of the data.. The resolution source is: The preliminary estimate of seasonally adjusted “New Residential Sales” found in the monthly New Residential Sales report published by the Census Bureau. (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.29000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "yes_bid": 68,
- "yes_ask": 71,
- "spread": 3,
- "shares_volume": 2342
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3593/will-renewable-energy-contribute-2500-or-less-to-global-electricity-production-in-the-calendar-year-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its fourth pathway (P4) is the worst-case scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, the only way to limit global warming to 1.5°C is by making strong use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS). According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):\nP4: A resource- and energy-intensive scenario in which economic growth and globalization lead to widespread adoption of greenhouse-gas-intensive lifestyles, including high demand for transportation fuels and livestock products. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved through technological means, making strong use of CDR through the deployment of BECCS.\nAccording to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P4 is consistent with a share of 25% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.\nIn 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). \nWill renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positively if renewable energy contributes 25.00% or less to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:52:31.815Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 150,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-05T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).\nLikely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.\nThe latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.\nEven 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.\nWill Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?\nThe acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources.\nIf Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled before inauguration day 2025, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:18:36.960Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 588,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-11T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-10-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-10-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The Republican nominee for President in 2024 is someone other than Donald J Trump, Ron Desantis, or Mike Pence",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A183",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-06-18T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's May meeting?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/FED-006",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If the target federal funds rate is greater than 0.25% following the Federal Reserve's May meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see FED in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their May 04, 2022 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting. . The resolution source is: The upper bound of the target federal funds range published on the Federal Reserve official website. (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.040000000000000036,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4,
- "yes_bid": 96,
- "yes_ask": 98,
- "spread": 2,
- "shares_volume": 16836
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will humanity maintain a continuous off-Earth presence until 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3385/will-humanity-maintain-a-continuous-off-earth-presence-until-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since October 31 2000, the date [Soyuz TM-31](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soyuz_TM-31) lifted off from the Baikonur Cosmodrome carrying the members of [Expedition 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expedition_1), the first long-duration ISS crew, humanity has maintained a permanent off-Earth presence for more than 19 years.\nThis question asks: Will humanity maintain an off-Earth presence continuously until 1 January 2050?\nFor a positive resolution, at least one living and conscious biological human must be physically located at some point beyond 100km altitude above Earth's mean sea level at all times continuously until 1 January 2050. This could include persons aboard spacecraft and space stations, as well as persons on any astronomical object other than Earth (e.g. Moon or Mars explorers / settlers). \nIf the number of living and conscious biological humans off-Earth drops to zero at any time before 1 January 2050, this question resolves negatively. [EM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)s, artificial intelligence systems, humans in suspended animation or cryopreservation, and all other instances of either wholly non-biological or non-conscious humans will not count for the purposes of this question. Humans who are merely sleeping will be considered conscious for the purposes of this question.\nHowever, biological humans with some degree of cybernetic augmentation ([brain implants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brain_implant), artificial limbs or organs, etc) will suffice, so long as they could still reproduce with un-augmented humans.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:47:56.818Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 350,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-03T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-07-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-02T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins.\nIn order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/). It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that the company goes bankrupt before that happens.\nSo, without further ado, it is asked:Will Tesla become the [world's largest motor vehicle producer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production) in some calendar year prior to 2035? \nData for resolution shall be taken from the [International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles), which is where the Wikipedia link got the data from itself.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:18:23.951Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 690,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-06-05T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2023, will negotiations on a China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement be completed?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2175-before-1-january-2023-will-negotiations-on-a-china-gulf-cooperation-council-gcc-free-trade-agreement-be-completed",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "China and the GCC began negotiations for a free trade agreement in 2005 ([China Ministry of Commerce](http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/enarticle/engcc/engccnews/200911/1638_1.html), [Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/china-is-happy-about-the-abraham-accords-and-the-gcc-crisis-coming-to-an-end/), [ANI News](https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/chinese-saudi-arabian-fms-talk-over-phone-on-ties-cooperation20211017225922/), [GCC](https://www.gcc-sg.org/en-us/AboutGCC/MemberStates/pages/Home.aspx)). The signing of an FTA or the announcement of an agreement in principle (see EU-Mercosur announcement) would count, and ratification would be immaterial (e.g., [New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade](https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/trade/free-trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements-concluded-but-not-in-force/regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership-rcep/rcep-overview), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48807161)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:03:24.967Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "numforecasters": 35,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the minimum temperature in NYC be below 10° for February 2022?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/COLDNYC-006",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If the minimum daily temperature for Central Park, New York, is strictly below 10° for the month of February 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see COLDNYC in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.. The resolution source is: The set of daily minimum temperatures for Central Park, New York from the National Weather Service. (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "yes_bid": 8,
- "yes_ask": 9,
- "spread": 1,
- "shares_volume": 5216
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9171/more-than-35-fusion-corps-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Optimism about the viability of nuclear fusion has been growing. But it is unlikely that any of the key milestones, [such as energy breakeven or commercial viability](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/), will be achieved this year (or perhaps this decade). \nAs a proxy for whether the fusion industry continues to gather pace, then, this question looks at the number of fusion companies in existence. According to [a report by the Fusion Industry Association (FIA)](https://www.fusionindustryassociation.org/about-fusion-industry), that number has gone up from one in 1997, to five in 2007, to 23 by 2020. \nAt the time of writing, there are \"at least 35\" global fusion companies, of which 25 are members of the FIA. Will that number go up in 2022?\nWill there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if, between January 1, 2022 to February 1, 2023, the [Fusion Industry Association](https://www.fusionindustryassociation.org/about-fusion-industry) reports that there are more than 35 fusion companies in the world. Otherwise (including if the FIA does not report any updated figures in that time) it will resolve negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:32:13.980Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 56,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-04T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-31T00:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-31T23:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:44.127Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 103062
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1373/will-someone-run-a-marathon-in-less-than-2-hours-per-iaaf-rules-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The sub-2 hour marathon has obsessed the running community for years.\nIn 2017, Nike launched an experiment to see whether at least one of 3 elite marathoners might be able to break through this barrier under ideal training and racing conditions. Eliud Kipchoge of Kenya came achingly close, putting up a time just 25 seconds short of the mark.\nOne line of thinking suggests that, once this barrier is shattered, we’ll start seeing sub-2 hour times crop up regularly. Brad Wilkins, Nike’s director of NXT Generation Research [said as much](https://www.cnn.com/2017/05/06/health/sub-two-hour-marathon-nike/index.html) to CNN\nWe believe that once a sub-two-hour marathon is done, the records will fall at traditional marathons after that… People will run faster and faster, similar to when Roger Bannister broke the four-minute mile.\"\nBut maybe this will be harder than the optimists believe. Slate Magazine [clarifies the problem](http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2017/05/what_nike_s_breaking2_marathon_event_tells_as_about_human_performance.html): \nThe size of that gap between Kipchoge’s “theoretically optimized marathon” and the “real world record” tells you one of two things about the future of the marathon, depending on your perspective. Option one is that Kipchoge is so good that he has shown what is truly possible…Option two is the realization that some of Nike’s tactics were so effective that they were worth between two and three minutes to Kipchoge.”\nIf “option two” is correct, then we’ll probably have to wait a bit longer—maybe a lot longer—before the record falls according to [rules defined](http://www.aims-worldrunning.org/world-records.html) by the Association of International Marathons and Distance Races (IAAF).\nPlease note that Metaculus asked a similar question in the past, and [it resolved negative](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/434/will-a-2-hour-marathon-be-run-in-2017/). That timeframe was tighter. But still, you've been warned!\nWill someone finally succeed in running a sub-2 hour marathon—an attempt recognized as valid and successful by IAAF—before January 1, 2023?\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:21:23.991Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 118,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-26T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-11-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the European Commission or other EU institution net borrow more than €50bn in 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6994/european-commission-to-borrow-50bn-in-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The EU corona recovery package or the [Next Generation EU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Generation_EU) COVID-19 recovery plan, introduced for the first time large scale amounts of common EU bonds issued by European Commission (\"coronabonds\"). Previously, proposals to introduce such \"[eurobonds](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurobond_%28eurozone%29)\" had been opposed several EU countries since 2011. The NGEU package allows the European Commission to borrow €750 bn euros on behalf of European Union. Total of €672.5 bn are to distributed as grants and loans via [Recovery and Resilience Facility](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/eu-recovery-plan/) and rest by other programmes.\nIn addition to NGEU, the commission also introduced in October 2020 a €100 bn [SURE](https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-and-fiscal-policy-coordination/financial-assistance-eu/funding-mechanisms-and-facilities/sure_en) [instrument](https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-and-fiscal-policy-coordination/financial-assistance-eu/funding-mechanisms-and-facilities/sure_en) (\"The European instrument for temporary Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency\"). Prior to NGEU, the Commission has issued bonds to provide [assistance and loans](https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/eu-budget/eu-borrower_en) to some EU countries, but on much smaller scale.\nCurrently the NGEU programme is supposed to be temporary, with net borrowing activity ending in 2026, but some have called for strengthening the EU fiscal union by making the NGEU or similar mechanisms permanent.\nWill the European Commission or other EU institution net borrow more than €50bn in 2027?\nResolves positively if European Commission, or other body or institution representing the EU, will borrow more than €50 000 000 000 capital (net) from markets, in 2018 prices.\nOrganizations created by separate treaties between EU countries, such the [European Stability Mechanism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Stability_Mechanism), do not not count. The EIB and the EFSF are also excluded. \nThe question specifies 2018 prices to be comparable with NGEU RRF programme, which also specifies 2018 prices. [See Regulation establishing the Recovery and Resilience Facility, Article 6](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/PE-75-2020-INIT/en/pdf)\nThe question specifies net borrowing activity, as the intention is to ask if EU will continue to issue new debt.\nThe intention of \"Commission or other institution\" criteria is to cover changes to the EU internal organization that result bonds continuing to be issued in behalf of the EU but not by the European Commission. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:58:41.654Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-04-30T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-30T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7271/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Ohio Governor. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Nan Whaley",
- "probability": 0.7941176470588236,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Cranley",
- "probability": 0.18627450980392157,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "David Pepper",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Emilia Sykes",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:59:01.855Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 12232
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Nan Whaley, John Cranley, David Pepper, Emilia Sykes"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Arbitrum have a token by May 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-arbitrum-have-a-token-by-may-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Arbitrum or Offchain Labs will have a live token related to its ecosystem, technology, chain, or parent company, by May 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Having a live token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native or related to the application, protocol, technology, ecosystem, or parent company, and is substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. In the case that the token comes in the form of a DAO or DAO-like organizational structure that has governing or controlling power over the underlying tech or protocol, or is otherwise officially related to the project, instead of a traditional fee paying-related token, that will still qualify as launching a token. If Arbitrum or Offchain Labs have a live token by May 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If the resolution date is reached and the market resolution criteria has not been met, the market will resolve to \"No\".",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.3691720249908137348276904024492344",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.6308279750091862651723095975507656",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.518Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "28",
- "liquidity": "1300.00",
- "tradevolume": "3846.64",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0xCB2155859F5869489827866e537339BcdD12b31e"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will smoking and sex be less prevalent in the United States in 2050 than in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8582/smoking-and-sex-less-prevalent-in-us-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about social behavior in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nAll socially risky behavior is on the decline, and has been in the decade since social media and the introduction of the smart phone. People in 2050 will have less sex, do less drugs, have less affairs, smoke less, and conform more in their opinions.\nA survey from Gallup finds that [16% of US adults had smoked a cigarette in the last week in 2021](https://news.gallup.com/poll/353225/smoking-vaping-remain-steady-low.aspx). And an [article in the Washington Post](https://archive.md/p3uiO) reports that 23% of US adults had not had sex in the past year in 2018.\nWill smoking and sex be less prevalent in the United States in 2050 than in 2021?\nThis resolves positively if any credible surveys of US adults in the year 2050 report that the share of adults who have smoked in the past week and the share of adults who have had sex in the past week were both lower than in the year 2021. Comparisons between 2050 and 2021 must be of similar methodology (see fine print) to count towards resolution. If no comparable surveys can be found for both smoking and sex by the resolution date of December 31, 2054, this resolves ambiguously. This resolves positively if any credible surveys would result in positive resolution, conflicting surveys will be considered irrelevant.\nRegarding similar methodology, if a survey in 2021 includes e-cigarettes and a survey from 2050 does not the surveys would not be considered to have similar methodology. However, different methodologies can still be acceptable if it can be logically deduced that the surveys provide evidence toward resolution. For example, if a survey in 2021 asked whether respondents had sex in the past year and 25% answered no, and a survey in 2050 asked if respondents had sex in the past five years and 40% answered no, it can be deduced that a larger share of adults in 2050 had not had sex in the past year than in 2021 because the five year period would include the past year. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:01:16.831Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2041-01-01T05:13:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2055-01-01T05:13:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will we know what Dark Matter is before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1469/will-we-know-what-dark-matter-is-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The universe is thought to contain:\n---only around 5% of ordinary matter \n---25% Dark Matter \n---70% Dark Energy \nIn other words, we don't know what 95% of the universe is made of.\nPresence of [Dark matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_matter) is implied in a variety of astrophysical observations, including gravitational effects that cannot be explained unless more matter is present than can be seen.\n[Dark energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_energy) is an unknown form of energy which is hypothesized to permeate all of space, tending to accelerate the expansion of the universe. Dark energy is the most accepted hypothesis to explain the observations since the 1990s indicating that the universe is expanding at an accelerating rate.\n[What is Dark Matter and Dark Energy? by Kurzgesagt – In a Nutshell](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAa2O_8wBUQ) is an approachable introduction to the topic.\nThe question asks whether a Nobel Prize will be awarded before 2050 for work done primarily later than 2015, and directly related to explaining what Dark Matter is, as mentioned in the prize rationale.\nIf the prize is awarded before 2050 the question will close retroactively to the day before prize announcement. If the prize is not awarded before 2050, the question will close the day before the Nobel Prize announcement of 2049.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:23:40.471Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 248,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-04T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-08T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-10T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Colorado?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7548/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Colorado",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Colorado U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.7425742574257426,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.25742574257425743,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:02:13.645Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 37395
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6806/lab-grown-organs-be-used-in-humans-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/) \nMore than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)\nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.\nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.16000000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:54:32.713Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 84,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-12T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the highest corporate tax rate be raised above 21% in 2022?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/CORP-003",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If a bill that has the effect of raising the top federal corporate income tax rate becomes law between Issuance and December 31, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. \n\nOther provisions that may affect the amount of corporate tax paid by a given corporation but are not the corporate income tax rate--such as rules affecting what income counts as taxable or affecting deductions, credits, and other tax attributes relevant to corporations--do not affect the resolution of the Contract. A bill that creates different tax brackets with some brackets below the threshold and others above with a rate greater than 21% (the current highest rate) is encompassed in the Payout Criterion, since the Contract only considers the top tax bracket. Subsequent legislation which has the effect of lowering the top tax rate imposed on corporate income below 21% does not affect the Payout Criterion. Surtaxes imposed on taxable income or (adjusted) gross income imposed on incomes in the top tax bracket are encompassed in the Payout Criterion. Increases in taxes imposed on specific kinds of corporate income that are not taxable income or (adjusted) gross income are not relevant for the market's resolution.\n\nThe above is a summary of the complete legally binding terms and conditions. Please see CORP in the Rulebook for the complete legally binding terms and conditions. All market participants should read and understand the complete legally binding terms and conditions before trading.\n\nThe market will close at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the occurrence of an event that would result in the market resolving to Yes, or 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2022. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the occurrence of an event that would result in the market resolving to Yes, the release of the data (Congress.gov updating) for December 31, 2022, or January 07, 2023.. The resolution source is: The bills published on Congress.gov that became law between Issuance and December 31, 2022. (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "yes_bid": 15,
- "yes_ask": 23,
- "spread": 8,
- "shares_volume": 8106
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9415/hillary-clinton-to-run-for-president-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton), born October 26, 1947, is an American politician, diplomat, lawyer, writer, and public speaker who served as the 67th United States secretary of state from 2009 to 2013, as a United States senator from New York from 2001 to 2009, and as first lady of the United States from 1993 to 2001 as the wife of President Bill Clinton.\nA member of the Democratic Party, she was the party's nominee for president in [the 2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), becoming the first woman to win a presidential nomination by a major U.S. political party. Clinton won the popular vote in the election, but did not win enough Electoral College votes to become president, losing to Donald Trump, who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.\nAs of January 2022, incumbent President Joe Biden, the oldest president in history, is unpopular, with [a 42.2% approval rating.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) Due to his advanced age and low popularity, there has been speculation that he will not be re-nominated by the Democratic Party as their candidate in the 2024 presidential election, and [some have suggested that Clinton could make a comeback](https://www.wsj.com/articles/hillary-clinton-2024-comeback-president-biden-harris-democrat-nominee-race-2022-midterm-loss-11641914951) and seek the presidency once more.\nWill Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?\nThis question shall resolve positively if credible media reports state that on or before August 7 2024, 90 days before the election, Hillary Clinton (or agents acting on her behalf and with her consent) has filed 'FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy' with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. Clinton must be a candidate for the office of president of the United States; candidacy for any other office (including vice president) will not suffice for positive resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:38:20.430Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-23T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-08-07T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6827/a-supernova-in-the-milky-way-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Records of astronomical observations of supernovae date millennia, with the most recent supernova in the Milky Way unquestionably observed by the naked eye being [SN1604](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepler%27s_Supernova), in 1604 CE. Since the invention of the telescope, [tens of thousands](https://sne.space/) of supernovae have been observed, but they were all in other galaxies, leaving a disappointing [gap of more than 400 years](https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.06552) without observations in our own galaxy.\nThe closest and brightest observed supernova in recent times was [SN1987A](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.aa.31.090193.001135) in the Large Magellanic Cloud, a dwarf satellite galaxy of the Milky Way. It was the first observed in every band of the electromagnetic spectrum and first detected via neutrinos. Its proximity allowed detailed observations and the test of models for supernovae formation.\nBetelgeuse kindled speculations if it would go supernova when it started dimming in luminosity in later 2019. Later studies suggested that [occluding dust](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/hubble-finds-that-betelgeuses-mysterious-dimming-is-due-to-a-traumatic-outburst) may be the most likely culprit for the dimming and the star is unlikely to go supernova [anytime soon](https://news.sky.com/story/scientists-figure-out-when-red-supergiant-betelgeuse-will-go-supernova-12105347). (see a [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/) about it)\nThe rate of supernovae per century in the Milky Way Galaxy is not well constrained, being frequently estimated between 1 and 10 SNe/century (see a list of estimates in [Dragicevich et al., 1999](https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/302/4/693/1013355) and [Adams et al., 2013](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0004-637X/778/2/164)), but a recent estimate is of SNe/century by Adams et al. (2013). Most of these may be core-collapse supernovae, happening in the thin disk, and potentially obscured in the visible by gas and dust, but still observable in other parts of the spectrum, by gravitational waves or by neutrinos.\nThe observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy with the current [multi-message astronomy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-messenger_astronomy) technology could hugely improve our understanding of supernovae.\nWill we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?\n--- \nThis question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports about the observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050.\n--- \nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the resolution criterion is met.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:55:03.925Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 67,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T02:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T03:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who attacked the aid convoy in Syria on September 19, 2016? ",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/who-attacked-the-aid-convoy-in-syria-on-september-19-2016-16104",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "On September 19, 2016 at around 7 PM local time, [a UN aid convoy carrying vital supplies for tens of thousands of Syrian civilians in a besieged area south-west of Aleppo was attacked](http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-37430824) as it was being unloaded at a Syrian Arab Red Crescent (SARC) warehouse in Urum al-Kubra. 18 civilians were killed, 18 of the 31 trucks were completely destroyed, and neighboring buildings, including the warehouse and a clinic, were damaged in the three-hour attack.\nFollowing the attack, [Russia ](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-idUSKCN11R238?il=0)and the [United States](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/19/syria-ceasefire-is-over-says-countrys-military) blamed one another. Russia offered a number of claims, some contradictory. The [UN](http://www.unocha.org/top-stories/all-stories/syria-unsarc-convoy-hit-urum-al-kubra-northwest-aleppo-city) and [Human Rights Watch](https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/09/20/syria-investigate-attack-un-aid-convoy) both called for an investigation and raised the possibility that this was a deliberate attack on civilians, and thus a war crime. The attacks highlighted the [collapse](http://time.com/4500719/syria-ceasefire-aid-convoy-aleppo/) of a fragile week-long cease-fire that had been supported by Russia and the US.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "The Russian Air Force carried out the attack.",
- "probability": 0.416998344156324,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The Russian and Syrian air forces carried out the attack jointly.",
- "probability": 0.3996231698874853,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The Syrian Air Force carried out the attack.",
- "probability": 0.12766875086273002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Opposition ground forces carried out the attack.",
- "probability": 0.051659883539936315,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The US Air Force carried out the attack.",
- "probability": 0.0040498515535244296,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:09:13.887Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "The Russian Air Force carried out the attack., The Russian and Syrian air forces carried out the attack jointly., The Syrian Air Force carried out the attack., Opposition ground forces carried out the attack., The US Air Force carried out the attack."
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. 7-day COVID-19 Case average be below 100,000 by March 15, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-be-below-100000-by-march-15-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 Case average is below 100,000 for any day ranging from January 6, 2022 to March 15, 2022 inclusive, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases. \n\nThe market will be checked daily at 8 PM to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 100,000. The market will be checked daily at 8 PM to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 100,000. If an average below 100,000 is detected, it will be checked again 7 days later. If it is still under 100,000 at that point, the market will be resolved. If it is 100,000 or above, then the market will not resolve based on that data point.\n\nThe final check will be 1 week after the last date in the range.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.7810990243672100380406547935263178",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.2189009756327899619593452064736822",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.517Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "340",
- "liquidity": "25995.16",
- "tradevolume": "103006.45",
- "stars": 4
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x371B3CeE82FfC7f61eEe21Ac7d9F149A2A70AF90"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the closing price for aluminum per metric ton (MT) on 29 April 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2170-what-will-be-the-closing-price-for-aluminum-per-metric-ton-mt-on-29-april-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Aluminum prices have risen dramatically in 2021, with pressures from both supply and demand sides ([Yahoo](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/aluminum-makers-sound-alarm-u-223623072.html), [Capital.com](https://capital.com/aluminium-rebounds-as-china-power-worries-resurface)). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by Bloomberg for the three-month futures contract on the London Metal Exchange ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/LMAHDS03:COM), [London Metal Exchange](https://www.lme.com/en/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Lower than $2,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $2,000 and $2,300, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher than $2,300 but lower than $2,600",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $2,600 and $2,900, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher than $2,900 but lower than $3,200",
- "probability": 0.46,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "$3,200 or higher",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:03:32.494Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 373,
- "numforecasters": 126,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than $2,000, Between $2,000 and $2,300, inclusive, Higher than $2,300 but lower than $2,600, Between $2,600 and $2,900, inclusive, Higher than $2,900 but lower than $3,200, $3,200 or higher"
- },
- {
- "title": "If Washington DC and Puerto Rico are not admitted as new states, will Republicans hold the Senate from 2022 to 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7165/gop-to-hold-senate-if-dc-and-pr-not-admitted/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Democrats have recently been increasingly interested in the structure of the Senate and the [disadvantages they believe it confers to the electoral prospects of Democrats](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/1/30/20997046/constitution-electoral-college-senate-popular-vote-trump). On May 5th, 2021, Dylan Matthews, a journalist at Vox, [posted a tweet](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt/status/1389975733867581445) that made the following claim (archived version [here](https://web.archive.org/web/20210505170845/https://twitter.com/dylanmatt/status/1389975733867581445)):\nI don’t think Congressional leadership has really internalized that if they don’t admit DC and PR, they’ll lose the Senate until at least 2030\nIf Washington DC and Puerto Rico are not admitted as new states, will Republicans hold the Senate from 2022 to 2031?\nThis question resolves positively if:\n--- \nWashington DC and Puerto Rico are not officially admitted as new states before 2029-12-31, and \n--- \nthe Republican Party controls the Senate from the beginning of the congressional term in 2023 to the end of the congressional term in 2031 ([the 118th through 121st congresses, inclusive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Congresses)).\nIf Republicans do not control the Senate at any point during that period the question resolves negatively. If both Washington DC and Puerto Rico are officially admitted to the United States on or before December 31st, 2029, the question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:05:26.776Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-31T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T18:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Conservative Party hold a vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2260-will-the-conservative-party-hold-a-vote-of-no-confidence-in-boris-johnson-in-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Prime Minister Johnson is facing pushback from within his own Conservative Party in the wake of various scandals, including challenges to his leadership of the party ([Sky News](https://news.sky.com/story/mps-fear-boris-johnson-will-not-be-able-to-survive-scandals-as-ghanis-claims-expose-instability-in-no-10-12523659), [France 24](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220126-uk-partygate-a-timeline-of-boris-johnson-s-lockdown-scandals)). If 15% of the Conservative Party members in parliament submit letters of no confidence to the \"1922 Committee,\" a party leadership vote would be triggered ([Sky News](https://news.sky.com/story/partygate-new-blow-for-johnson-as-third-tory-mp-today-submits-no-confidence-letter-12530879)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, and it will pass",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, but it will not pass",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:00:34.658Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 135,
- "numforecasters": 100,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and it will pass, Yes, but it will not pass, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Xi Jinping continue leading China in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8533/xi-jinping-leading-china-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Xi Jinping is currently nearing the end of his second term as CCP General Secretary and is expected to make a bid for a third term and win it with a [92% chance according to a current Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/). There is considerable speculation that Xi will pave the way for a much longer tenure [akin to the tenure of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaping](https://www.ft.com/content/71b165a6-052d-4d7d-9006-e2e757f40d98). Having China ruled by a single figure with a potentially unlimited tenure might have considerable ramifications for a variety of topics ranging from the West's China policy to global security concerns.\nWill Xi Jinping continue leading China in 2030?\nThis question will resolve positive if either:\n---Xi is CCP General Secretary on 1 January, 2030. \n---Xi is paramount leader of China on 1 January, 2030. \n---Xi is de facto leader of China on 1 January, 2030. \nThis question will resolve negative if: \n---Any other person is leader on 1 January, 2030. \nThis question will resolve ambiguous if:\n---China ceases to exist as the political entity it is right now. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:58:14.536Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 109,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:01:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will less than 70% of Fortune 500 CEOs in the US be non-Hispanic white in the year 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8573/30-of-fortune-500-ceos-non-white-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Racial and ethnic diversity in the US](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/03/31/10-demographic-trends-that-are-shaping-the-u-s-and-the-world/) has steadily increased, but minorities are still [underrepresented at the senior and executive level of US companies](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/11/companies-are-making-bold-promises-about-greater-diversity-theres-a-long-way-to-go.html).\nSome have speculated that this is likely to change. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about diversity in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n[Princeton’s incoming class for 2021 is 68% non-white](https://www.princeton.edu/news/2021/04/06/extraordinary-year-princeton-offers-admission-1498-students-class-2025#:~:text=Princeton%20University%20has%20offered%20admission,increase%20from%2017%25%20last%20year.). In fact, currently across the Ivy League (except Dartmouth), whites are significantly underrepresented in their incoming student bodies in proportion to the overall population. This trend of outperformance by minorities in the upper echelons of society like at elite universities, major corporations, and in creative endeavors (books published, movies starred in, etc), will continue and intensify—even just by demographics alone 2050 America will itself be majority non-white.\nEach year Fortune magazine publishes the [Fortune 500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fortune_500), a list of the top 500 US companies by revenue. [Richard L. Zweigenhaft](https://whorulesamerica.ucsc.edu/teaching/zweigenhaft.html), Dana Professor of Psychology at Guilford College, [published data showing](https://whorulesamerica.ucsc.edu/power/diversity_update_2020.html) that the share of Fortune 500 CEOs who are not white males has been increasing over time. According to his numbers for 2020, 92.6% of Fortune 500 CEOs are white.\nWill less than 70% of Fortune 500 CEOs in the US be non-Hispanic white in the year 2050?\nThis resolves positively if a credible estimate indicates that at most 70% of the CEOs of the Fortune 500 list for the year 2050 are non-Hispanic white. In the event Fortune does not publish a list of top 500 companies for 2050 other credible lists of the top 500 US companies in the year 2050 may be used for resolution. If credible estimates disagree, the estimate indicating the lowest proportion of non-Hispanic white CEOs will be used.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:00:45.768Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T19:02:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2052-12-31T19:02:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n---[Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/) \nThe [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity.\nWill there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2031, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:41:54.978Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 237,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of US retail sales will be made online in the fourth quarter of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2128-what-percentage-of-us-retail-sales-will-be-made-online-in-the-fourth-quarter-of-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The COVID-19 pandemic drove an increase in online shopping in the US, but whether increases will continue apace is an open question ([Digital Commerce 360](https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/article/coronavirus-impact-online-retail/), [Supermarket News](https://www.supermarketnews.com/online-retail/survey-convenience-drives-online-grocery-shopping-more-covid)). The outcome will be determined using seasonally adjusted \"Estimated Quarterly U.S. Retail Sales: Total and E-commerce\" data when first released by the US Census Bureau for the fourth quarter of 2022, expected in February 2023 ([Census.gov](https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html), see \"Latest Quarterly E-Commerce Report\"). For the fourth quarter of 2020, the Bureau reported E-commerce as a Percent of Total as 13.6% ([Census.gov - Q2 2021 Table](https://www.census.gov/retail/mrts/www/data/excel/21q2table1.xls), xls file download).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 12.5%",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 12.5% and 13.5%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 13.5% but less than 14.5%",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 14.5% and 15.5%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 15.5%",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:04:43.875Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 134,
- "numforecasters": 61,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 12.5%, Between 12.5% and 13.5%, inclusive, More than 13.5% but less than 14.5%, Between 14.5% and 15.5%, inclusive, More than 15.5%"
- },
- {
- "title": "What is the story behind Donald Trump's hair?",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/what-is-the-story-behind-donald-trump-s-hair-12734",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "Donald Trump's hair is a mystery; it has been compared to[ cotton candy](http://edition.cnn.com/2015/09/09/politics/jeb-bush-stephen-colbert-late-show-extras/) (by Jeb Bush and Stephen Colbert),[ soft serve ice cream](http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trumps-hair-soft-serve-dairy/story?id=33818262) at Dairy Queen (by Hillary Clinton on Saturday Night Live), a[ rare caterpillar](http://uk.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-caterpillar-2016-9), and[ other objects](http://www.boredpanda.com/donald-trump-hair-look-alikes/). While[ The Donald](http://www.amazon.com/TrumpNation-The-Art-Being-Donald/dp/1422366189) claims that he has a full head of natural hair, others doubt his story, suggesting that he has an involved comb over covering his baldness, that he wears a toupee, or that he has undergone surgery to reconstruct his hairline.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump's hair is a result of flap surgery.",
- "probability": 0.6014630328803353,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump has hair plug transplants.",
- "probability": 0.311266661641781,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump wears a toupee.",
- "probability": 0.05523460705178658,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump has a full head of hair (but chooses a hairstyle that looks like a comb over).",
- "probability": 0.030328877509767715,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump uses a comb over to hide a bald patch that is only on the crown of his head.",
- "probability": 0.0013827991564558896,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump's hair is a weave (supplied by Ivari International).",
- "probability": 0.00032402175987351645,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:09:13.886Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump's hair is a result of flap surgery., Donald Trump has hair plug transplants., Donald Trump wears a toupee., Donald Trump has a full head of hair (but chooses a hairstyle that looks like a comb over)., Donald Trump uses a comb over to hide a bald patch that is only on the crown of his head., Donald Trump's hair is a weave (supplied by Ivari International)."
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the Democratic nomination in the NY-11 House election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7735/Who-will-win-the-Democratic-nomination-in-the-NY-11-House-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2022 election to the United States House of Representatives from New York's Eleventh Congressional District.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Max Rose",
- "probability": 0.58,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bill de Blasio",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "B. Ramos DeBarros",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kathryn Garcia",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jumaane Williams",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:09:06.385Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 108
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Max Rose, Bill de Blasio, B. Ramos DeBarros, Kathryn Garcia, Jumaane Williams"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will aerial drones deliver 100 million or more parcels in the US by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8409/drones-deliver-100-million-parcels-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Package delivery by drone has been a goal of companies such as Amazon, who in 2020 [won approval from the FAA to deliver packages by drone](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/31/amazon-prime-now-drone-delivery-fleet-gets-faa-approval.html).\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about drone delivery in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nBuzzing drones of all shapes and sizes will be common the sky (last year Amazon won FAA approval for its delivery drone service, opening the door for this).\nAccording to the [Pitney Bowes Parcel Shipping Index](https://www.pitneybowes.com/us/shipping-index.html) 20.2 billion parcels were [shipped in 2020 in the United States](https://www.pitneybowes.com/content/dam/pitneybowes/us/en/shipping-index/pb_parcelshippinginfographic_2021_final.pdf).\n[According to the USPS](https://pe.usps.com/businessmail101?ViewName=Parcels#:~:text=If%20your%20mailpiece%20isn't,value%20for%20your%20postage%20dollars.) \nIf your mailpiece isn't a postcard, Letter, or a flat (large envelope) , then it's a parcel.\nWill aerial drones deliver 100 million or more parcels in the US by 2050?\nThis resolves positively if credible estimates state that aerial drones delivered 100 million or more parcels in the United States in any year between 2021 and 2049, inclusive. Drones need not be responsible for the entire delivery chain, parcels shipped by truck to a distribution center where aerial drones complete the deliveries would qualify. The definition of a parcel will conform to the USPS definition (see the link and quote in the question background).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:54:09.329Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T13:53:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-08-01T12:54:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the average temperature at Dubai International Airport between 1 May 2022 and 30 September 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2134-what-will-be-the-average-temperature-at-dubai-international-airport-between-1-may-2022-and-30-september-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The outcome will be determined using data from Meteostat ([Meteostat](https://meteostat.net/en/station/41194)). On the page, set the date range for \"2021-05-01 - 2021-09-30\" in the field above the \"Avg. Pressure\" field and click the \"Export\" button. The average of the daily averages (\"tavg\" in the file) will be used for resolution. Between 1 May 2020 and 30 September 2020, the average temperature was 35.48497 degrees Celsius ([Meteostat - DBX 2020](https://meteostat.net/en/station/41194?t=2020-05-01/2020-09-30)). For the same period in 2019, the average temperature was and 35.63268 degrees Celsius ([Meteostat - DBX 2021](https://meteostat.net/en/station/41194?t=2019-05-01/2019-09-30)). This question will be resolved with data available on 7 October 2022.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 34.5 degrees Celsius",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 34.5 and 35.5 degrees Celsius, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 35.5 and but less than 36.5 degrees Celsius",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 36.5 and 37.5 degrees Celsius, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 37.5 degrees Celsius",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:04:33.150Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 152,
- "numforecasters": 56,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 34.5 degrees Celsius, Between 34.5 and 35.5 degrees Celsius, inclusive, More than 35.5 and but less than 36.5 degrees Celsius, Between 36.5 and 37.5 degrees Celsius, inclusive, More than 37.5 degrees Celsius"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will soybeans be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7041/soy-successfully-de-allergenized-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Soy remains one of the most popular plant based alternatives because it contains [high levels of protein](https://wpcmed.com/soy-a-healthy-protein-alternative/), and like animal proteins, is a complete protein, meaning it contains all the essential amino acids needed for the human body. Soy based products like tofu and soy milk also contain less saturated fat than their meat and dairy counterparts, making it an ideal substitute for traditional animal products. \nSoy became [popular as an alternative protein source](https://www.foodprocessing.com/articles/2020/alternative-proteins-the-problems-and-the-promise/) by Atkins in the mid 20th century as the main ingredient in TVP (texturized vegetable protein).\n“The original textured vegetable protein or TVP, which we helped to formulate and is a trademark of ADM, was invented by William T. Atkinson in the 1950s and 1960s,” says Schuh. Atkinson developed a process to “texturize” soy flour into a meat-like substance using an extruder with mechanical shear and heat, combined with the injection of water. “The original TVP was a fibrous, spongy material used as a stand-alone meat alternative product, as well a nutritional extender in meat and poultry products to reduce costs and increase protein content.”\nWhile soy is still one of the [most common alternative protein sources](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/agriculture/our-insights/alternative-proteins-the-race-for-market-share-is-on) for plant based meat, like the Impossible Burger, its presence as one of the ‘big eight’ allergens make it difficult for some consumers to purchase and eat these products, leading to a rise in popularity for pea protein alternatives.\nWill soybeans be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication demonstrates that a process successfully produces de-allergenized soybeans. The end-product must be suitable for human consumption (though not necessarily approved for human consumption), and the crop may be of any species. This process might involve treating crop post-harvest, or genetically modifying relevant crops. The relevant publication must be first available by 2030-01-01, though it may be published at any date.\nThe relevant process must eliminate sufficient portion of allergens so as to successfully prevent the immune response to any of the proteins: [Gly m Bd 60K, Gly m Bd 30K and Gly m Bd 28K](https://reeis.usda.gov/web/crisprojectpages/0212493-development-of-hypoallergenic-fermented-soybean-products.html). \nRelevant studies must be sufficiently convincing (either showing that the chemical composition reduces the allergen concentration to tolerable levels, or by producing significant results in large-scale human trials). In case of ambiguity, admins may consult the relevant alt-meat [resolution council]().\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:00:42.127Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T22:39:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:39:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Illinois gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7659/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Illinois-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Illinois gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that the candidate is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed representation, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.8811881188118812,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.1188118811881188,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:05:32.613Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 15710
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will George Hotz's proposed AI chip company release a consumer product by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7442/geohot-ai-chip-released-to-consumers/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[George Hotz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Hotz), also known as GeoHot, is an American entrepreneur who runs the autonomous driving AI company [comma.ai](http://comma.ai).\nRecently GeoHot appeared to [announce the possibility](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Y97YY6yW1k) that he may start an AI training chip company designed to compete with NVidia.\nWill George Hotz's proposed AI chip company release a consumer product by 2030?\nThis question resolves if a company owned and or controlled by George Hotz releases a product intended to accelerate deep learning / machine learning by or before January 1st 2030 UTC. The product in question must be applicable to a variety of deep learning / AI training tasks, as current GPUs are--an accelerator which only works to process driving footage or some other highly constrained task and is capable of nothing else does not qualify.\nProduct release means the product is on sale and able to be purchased by end-users.\nThe product must offer a performance to price ratio no worse than half that of competing products as determined by at least two published benchmarks from credible tech media and the lowest out-the-door or to-the-door prices available to the general public. \nBeta or development hardware does not resolve.\nResolves negative if resolve date is reached without a qualifying product.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.29,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:14:55.082Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-10T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Supreme Court end racial preferences in university admissions in SFFA vs. Harvard before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9573/scotus-ends-racial-preferences-in-admissions/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[Will the Supreme Court find Harvard's admissions unlawful in SFFA vs. Harvard before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9572/scotus-rules-harvards-admissions-unlawful/) \n[Students for Fair Admissions (SFFA)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Students_for_Fair_Admissions) is suing Harvard, among other universities, for its race-conscious admissions policies, and has called for the abolition of racial preferences in college admissions. On January 24, 2022, the Supreme Court [granted certiorari](https://www.supremecourt.gov/orders/courtorders/012422zor_m6io.pdf) to SFFA's suits against Harvard and the University of North Carolina, which have been merged into a single case.\nWill the Supreme Court end racial preferences in university admissions in SFFA vs. Harvard before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if before January 1, 2030, the US Supreme Court rules in [SFFA v. Harvard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Students_for_Fair_Admissions_v._President_and_Fellows_of_Harvard_College) that the consideration of race in university admissions is no longer permissible. If the Supreme Court remands the case to a lower court, this question resolves positively if the final outcome of this case, or a successor case comprised of the merger of this case and others, finds that racial preferences in admissions are unlawful, and litigation for this case ends before 2030. Otherwise, this question will resolve negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:46:03.579Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2807/will-the-uk-housing-market-crash-before-july-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 17 June 2019, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/content/uploads/2019/06/Rightmove-House-Price-Index-17-June-2019.pdf) indicates that the average cost of a property in the UK is £309,348; just £91 short of the all-time record reached in June 2018.\nIn any month before July 2023, will the Rightmove House Price Index indicate that the average cost of a property is equal to or less than £216,543; a nominal decline of 30% from June 2019 levels?\nResolves positively if so, negatively if not, and ambiguously if the Rightmove House Price Index is discontinued or its methodology is changed so substantially that administrators believe it is no longer reasonable to continue this question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:36:09.631Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 486,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In New York State Rifle & Pistol Association, Inc. v. Bruen, will the Supreme Court rule that New York State's denial of applications for concealed-carry licenses for self-defense violated the Second Amendment?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2140-in-new-york-state-rifle-pistol-association-inc-v-bruen-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-new-york-state-s-denial-of-applications-for-concealed-carry-licenses-for-self-defense-violated-the-second-amendment",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Two New York State citizens applied for firearm concealed-carry licenses for self-defense, but were denied because they failed to show a \"proper cause\" for obtaining the license ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2021/20-843)). Two men sued, claiming that the denial of licenses violated the Second Amendment ([SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/new-york-state-rifle-pistol-association-inc-v-bruen/)). They lost at the trial and appellate courts, and appealed to the US Supreme Court ([Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/ny-state-rifle-pistol-assn-v-beach), [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/20/20-843/164031/20201217110211298_2020-12-17%20NRA-Corlett%20Cert%20Petition%20FINAL.pdf)). A ruling in favor of any petitioner (New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc., Robert Nash, or Brandon Koch) would count. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2021 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\" Oral arguments are scheduled for 3 November 2021 ([Supreme Court - November Argument Calendar](https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_calendars/MonthlyArgumentCalNovember2021.pdf)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:04:29.575Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 107,
- "numforecasters": 47,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Bored Apes or CryptoPunks have a higher floor price on March 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bored-apes-or-cryptopunks-have-a-higher-floor-price-on-march-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether BAYC (Bored Ape Yacht Club) or CryptoPunks will have a higher floor price in ETH on March 1st 2022, 12 PM ET.\n\nThe resolution source for BAYC will be prices listed on OpenSea (https://opensea.io/collection/boredapeyachtclub), specifically the price of the cheapest Bored Ape for sale. Only listings that have existed for at least an hour are valid for this market. List time for an NFT can be found under “Trading History” by clicking the “Listing” filter and hovering over the date. Note that the exact price at the check times will be used. If no floor price is available at the check times, the source will be checked every following hour. For valid listings that are declining price auctions, the price exactly at the check time will be used, NOT the price at initial listing time. \n\nThe resolution source for CryptoPunks will be (https://www.larvalabs.com/cryptopunks/forsale#), specifically the price of the cheapest CryptoPunk for sale. Only listings that have existed for at least an hour prior to each check time are valid for this market (as verified by the transaction hash time). \n\nBoth sources will be checked on March 1st 2022, 12 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Bored Apes” if at the check time, the floor price of BAYC (Bored Ape Yacht Club) is higher than CryptoPunks. The market will resolve to “CryptoPunks” if at the check time the floor price of CryptoPunks is above BAYC. If the floor prices are equal, the market will resolve 50/50.\n\nIf the links to the sources change, the new links will be used as sources.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Bored Apes",
- "probability": "0.8819037854086606706721631691345252",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "CryptoPunks",
- "probability": "0.1180962145913393293278368308654748",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.518Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "105",
- "liquidity": "8585.02",
- "tradevolume": "14550.37",
- "stars": 4
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0xa6da99c70e4Fa861A9DA9cc6EA50D7F82f297d5a"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Bored Apes, CryptoPunks"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Labour Party leader?",
- "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.183324545",
- "platform": "Betfair",
- "description": "We will settle this market on the date the Labour Party officially announce their new Permanent Party Leader after Keir Starmer. Temporary/interim leaders do not count. If a temporary/interim leader is appointed we will wait until the date of the announcement of the Permanent Leader before settling. This market will be void if the Party Leader dies while in office. If the Party Leader is unable to fulfil his/her role due to health reasons and is therefore permanently replaced this market will be void Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made by the Labour Party. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. In the event of any ambiguity over an official announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "2022",
- "probability": 0.0671947555312756,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "2023",
- "probability": 0.16798688882818902,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "2024 or later",
- "probability": 0.7648183556405354,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:00:25.986Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "volume": 4600.07
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "2022, 2023, 2024 or later"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an additional state join NATO by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8549/new-member-state-in-nato-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Wikipedia states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO): \n\"[NATO] is an intergovernmental military alliance between 28 European countries and 2 North American countries. [...] NATO constitutes a system of collective security, whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defense in response to an attack by any external party. [...]\nSince its founding, the admission of new member states has increased the alliance from the original 12 countries to 30. The most recent member state to be added to NATO was North Macedonia on 27 March 2020. NATO currently recognizes Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, and Ukraine as aspiring members. An additional 20 countries participate in NATO's Partnership for Peace programme, with 15 other countries involved in institutionalized dialogue programmes. The combined military spending of all NATO members in 2020 constituted over 57% of the global nominal total. Members agreed that their aim is to reach or maintain the target defence spending of at least 2% of their GDP by 2024.\"\nWill an additional state join NATO by 2024?\nThe question resolves positively if any state that is not a part of NATO at the start of this tournament becomes a member of NATO effective no later than 2023-12-31. This will be resolved based on an official statement by NATO, for example by the new state being included in the member list on NATO's official website. If a current NATO member fragments into two or more successor states and one or more of these join NATO, this will not count toward a positive resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:59:37.809Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 99,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Democratic Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7175/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Cheri Beasley",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jeff Jackson",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Erica Smith",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Richard Lee Watkins",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Heath Shuler",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:57:13.502Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 36471
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Cheri Beasley, Jeff Jackson, Erica Smith, Richard Lee Watkins, Heath Shuler"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the closing yield for the US 10-Year Treasury reach or exceed 2.25% before 1 July 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2220-will-the-closing-yield-for-the-us-10-year-treasury-reach-or-exceed-2-25-before-1-july-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Treasury bond yields are tracked for many purposes ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/03/122203.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10)). As of 8 December 2021, the yield was 1.52%.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:02:09.082Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 289,
- "numforecasters": 115,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China ban export of rice, wheat, or maize by April 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8850/chinese-export-ban-of-rice-wheat-or-maize/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Export bans are used in some cases by exporting countries to lower domestic prices and increase availability during shortages. However, they also add significant price pressure by further restricting supply, and the introduction of export bans can lead to a cascade. Thus we ask:\nWill China ban exports of rice, wheat or maize before April 2023?\nThe question resolves positively if Chinese officials announce an export ban for either rice or wheat or maize or for two or all three of them. This question will resolve on April 1, 2023.\nThe question resolves positively if such an export ban:\n--- \nComes into force at any time between the opening of this question and March 31, 2023, even if it is later lifted (regardless of the duration of the ban). It must actually come into force. If it is only announced but cancelled before coming into force, the question resolves negatively.\n--- \nThe ban must apply to exports anywhere outside China, not just a specific region.\n--- \nThe ban can have narrow exceptions, such as allowing exports upon special authorization or in case of a humanitarian crisis. Exceptions will be considered 'narrow' if exports of the affected crops during the ban are less than 5% (in either dollar amount or weight) of what they were in the same period of the preceding year. If the ban is long enough and data are available, this will be checked based on actual export statistics, e.g. [by the USDA](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/foreign-agricultural-trade-of-the-united-states-fatus/u-s-agricultural-trade-data-update/). The USDA publishes monthly export statistics so this would not work for a ban shorter than one month. If this cannot be evaluated based on data, best judgement will be used to estimate whether the exceptions are narrow enough to likely cut exports below 5%.\n--- \nThe ban can restrict only one of these crops or more of them. It is also sufficient if the ban restricts e.g. only one specific strain or type of wheat or rice or maize or soybean.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively even if the legality of such a ban is contested (as long as it was issued by a government body that has some authority over export control, such as the President or the Department of Commerce) or it is later struck down by a court.\nThis question will resolve on April 1, 2023 as follows. If there are no secondary (news, Wikipedia) reports of such a ban having occurred, this question resolves negatively. If there are secondary reports of such a ban, an attempt will be made to verify them using primary sources, such websites of Chinese Government agencies (such as the Bureau of Industry and Security, the Department of Commerce). If the ban is no longer in effect, archived versions of government websites may be considered.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:14:43.701Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-27T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Randell Mills's Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics Be Taken Seriously?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3216/will-randell-millss-grand-unified-theory-of-classical-physics-be-taken-seriously/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This will be \"True\" if, by 2030, papers by Randell Mills containing the word \"hydrino\", are cited by at least 10 papers published after 2019, in journals in the [Science Citations Index](https://mjl.clarivate.com/home?PC=K), also containing the word \"hydrino\". The Randell Mills papers being cited by the Science Citations Index journal papers need not be in such journals.\nThe conjunction of Randell Mills with the word \"hydrino\" is taken as implying that Mills's [Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics](https://brilliantlightpower.com/book-download-and-streaming/) is being taken seriously by said paper in this time frame.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:43:27.080Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 165,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-12T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-11-30T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T18:01:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Republicans?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7244/1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-republican/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/) \n---[If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Democrats?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7243/1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-democrats/) \nPuerto Rico was aquired as a territory of the USA in 1898. Since then, there has been ongoing discussion to admit [Puerto Rico as a US state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico), though there has been [much disagreement among Puerto Ricans](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_political_status_for_Puerto_Rico) among factions who favor statehood, favor national independence, or who favor the status quo.\nIn a related debate on [statehood for the District of Columbia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/), the Republican Party is opposed to statehood, [predicting that Democrats would gain an advantage in the Senate:](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/may/03/washington-dc-statehood-51-stars)\n“If DC were to become a state, Democrats would gain two reliably liberal seats in the US Senate,” said Emma Vaughn, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee. “They cite various reasons for why they want DC statehood, but the truth is that these extra Senate seats would be a rubber stamp for their radical, far-left agenda.”\nExpecting DC to elect 2 Democratic Senators upon statehood is [almost certain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_the_District_of_Columbia), but the outcome of a Puerto Rican statehood is less so. The Republican Party's [official platform from 2008 to 2020 stated:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico#Mainland_support)\nWe support the right of the United States citizens of Puerto Rico to be admitted to the Union as a fully sovereign state after they freely so determine.\nThe Democratic Party has also expressed support of PR statehood, on the condition that it is will of PR's citizens in a fair referendum.\nSeveral referendums have been held on PR's future political status; [in 2020, 52% of voters favored statehood.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Puerto_Rican_status_referendum)\nIf Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Republicans?\nThis question will resolve positively if the first 2 elected Senators of Puerto Rico are both members of the Republican Party, as of their date of election. It will resolve negatively if they are a member of any other party, including if they are independents who caucus with Republicans.\nIf Puerto Rico is not a state at any time prior to 2035-01-01, or if Puerto Rico will not elect at least 2 senators by that time, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nSenators must be elected by the general populace. If Senators are appointed for PR, this question will wait to resolve on the first Senators who are elected. This question will resolve for the first 2 elected senators, regardless of whether those senators are elected in the same year or in the same election.\nIf both elected senators are members of a Repubilcan Party Affiliate (for example, the [Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota_Democratic%E2%80%93Farmer%E2%80%93Labor_Party) for the Democratic Party), they will be considered Republicans for this question, assuming the Republican Party does not endorse or support competing candidates in Puerto Rico (on or immediately prior to the general election day).\nSenators will be \"elected prior to 2035-01-01\" if their election day is prior to 2035-01-01, regardless of when they are projected by election media, or when they take office. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:08:00.217Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-26T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-03-17T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5319/dutch-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the Dutch consortium of medical specialist organisations recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the consortium of medical specialist organizations reccomends:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nIn the [their treatment recommendations](https://swab.nl/nl/covid-19#to_45), a consortium of Dutch medical specialist organisations mentions evidence that vitamin D seems to protect patients from developing acute respiratory infections. However, for COVID-19 specifically, they conclude:\nAt present, there are insufficient data to recommend the use of vitamin D in the treatment or prevention of patients with COVID-19\nThe question resolves according to the reccomendations in the [recommendations overview](https://swab.nl/nl/covid-19#to_45), developed by the consortium of medical specialists. In case the effort is taken over another organisation the question resolves on the basis of those recommendations.\nThe consortium currently includes the CIB, NVZA, NVMM, NVII, NVIC, NVK, NVALT. It is considered to have ceased to exist if three or more of these organisations are no longer listed as collaborators. \nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:21:15.327Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 116,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will marijuana be legal for recreational use in a supermajority of these strongly Republican US states by 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7740/marijuana-legalization-in-republican-states/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Marijuana is being legalized in many US states after having been illegal in all states for decades. While the status varies widely from state to state, states that tend to vote for Republican candidates are more likely to have marijuana be completely illegal or legal only for medical (non-recreational) use.\nThe following 20 states have voted for Republican presidential candidates in all 4 of the previous presidential elections (from 2008 til 2020), and are the focus of this question:\nAK, MT, ID, WY, ND, SD, UT, NE, KS, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, MS, TN, KY, WV, AL, SC\nRecreational use is currently only legal in 2 of these states (Alaska and Montana), accounting for 35.6% of the land area of these states (Alaska is very big).\nWill marijuana be legal for recreational use in a supermajority of these strongly Republican US states by 2040?\nIf recreational marijuana use is legal in at least 2/3rds of the land area currently encompassed by the aforementioned states (by any level of governmental action, whether federal or state-level or what may be) at any time (excluding anomalies that last for less than 6 months) prior to the final day of 2040, this question will resolve positively. Otherwise, the question will resolve negatively.\nIf the surface of the Earth changes sufficiently drastically to make the described land area ill-defined, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:24:21.339Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 81,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2041-12-31T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries reach or exceed 5.00% before 1 October 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2228-will-the-spread-between-us-high-yield-corporate-bonds-and-us-treasuries-reach-or-exceed-5-00-before-1-october-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Interest rate volatility has subsided since the early days of the pandemic, but inflation and other factors could lead to new volatility ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/an-uptick-in-corporate-defaults-is-unlikely), [MarketWatch](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/corporate-debt-investors-brace-for-tighter-financial-conditions-in-2022-11638217461)). The outcome will be determined using Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for \"ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread\" ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2)). For 1 December 2021, the spread was 3.58%.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:01:47.439Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 240,
- "numforecasters": 141,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many San Francisco school board members recalled?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7596/How-many-San-Francisco-school-board-members-recalled",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of the below-listed members of the San Francisco Unified School District Board who are recalled in the February 2022 recall election. For purposes of this market, a member whose position is vacated prior to the recall election shall be considered to have been recalled, regardless of the existence or outcome of the recall election. \nFor purposes of this market, the three members being considered for recall are Gabriela López, Alison Collins, and Faauuga Moliga. No other members shall be considered for resolution of this market. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Zero",
- "probability": 0.06930693069306931,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "One",
- "probability": 0.04950495049504951,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Two",
- "probability": 0.09900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Three",
- "probability": 0.7821782178217822,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:03:49.755Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 9267
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Zero, One, Two, Three"
- },
- {
- "title": "Rs win NH 2022 Senate",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A162",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will US greenhouse gas emissions be halved by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7155/us-climate-emissions-halved-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On April 22, 2021, President Joe Biden pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50 to 52% in 2030, compared to 2005 levels.\n[A statement from the White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/22/fact-sheet-president-biden-sets-2030-greenhouse-gas-pollution-reduction-target-aimed-at-creating-good-paying-union-jobs-and-securing-u-s-leadership-on-clean-energy-technologies/) writes:\nToday, President Biden will announce a new target for the United States to achieve a 50-52 percent reduction from 2005 levels in economy-wide net greenhouse gas pollution in 2030 – building on progress to-date and by positioning American workers and industry to tackle the climate crisis.\nAccording to the [Center for Climate and Energy Solutions](https://www.c2es.org/content/u-s-emissions/), net emissions in 2017 were 5,743 million metric tons of CO₂ equivalents, 12% lower than in 2005. Net emissions in 2020 were 21% below 2005 levels and 10.3% lower than 2019 levels, according to a preliminary report by [Rhodium Group](https://rhg.com/research/preliminary-us-emissions-2020/), but emission levels are expected to rise in 2021 as pandemic lockdown measures are reduced.\nWill US greenhouse gas emissions be halved by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if there is any year between 2022 and 2030 (inclusive) in which the US levels of economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions (in terms of CO₂ equivalents) is at least 50.00% lower than 2005 levels, according to a reliable source that is not heavily disputed by other reliable sources. The question resolves negatively if all reliable reports (that Metaculus users can find) say that the US net emissions in each year between 2022 and 2030 were greater than 50% of 2005 levels, and there is at least one reliable report about net emission levels in 2030. (If there is no report about net emission levels in 2030, we should wait for one rather than resolving this question ambiguously.)\nIf the US gains or loses territories between now and 2030, ideally only the net emissions from the current territories should be considered.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:05:11.228Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 87,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-08T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-06-01T04:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any top 10 meat global processors/producers go bankrupt by 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7054/global-meat-producers-to-go-bankrupt-by-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [Value.today](https://www.value.today/world-top-companies/meat-poultry-fish-companies-world), software analytics company, the largest global processors or producers of meat are the following as April 2021 are: [Cargill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill) (US), [Tyson Foods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Foods) (US), [Muyuan Foods](https://www.reuters.com/companies/002714.SZ) (CN), [Wens Foodstuff Group](https://www.reuters.com/companies/300498.SZ) (CN), [Hormel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormel) (US), [Kerry Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Group) (IE), [JBS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A.) (BR), [WH Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WH_Group) (Hong Kong), [Mowi ASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mowi) (NO), and [Marubeni Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marubeni) (JP)\nWill any top 10 meat global processors/producers go bankrupt by 2028?\nThis question resolves positively if Cargill, Tyson Foods, Hormel, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, or any of their parent companies file for bankruptcy by 2028-01-01, according to credible financial media reports.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively if [Cargill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill), [Tyson Foods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Foods) or [Hormel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormel) (or any of their parent companies) submits a court filing seeking bankruptcy protection under any provision of the United States Bankruptcy Code, or if [Muyuan Foods](https://www.reuters.com/companies/002714.SZ) or [Wens Foodstuff Group](https://www.reuters.com/companies/300498.SZ) (or any of their parent companies) apply for bankruptcy proceedings in China. It will also resolve positively if [Kerry Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Group) applies for bankruptcy proceedings in Ireland, [JBS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A.) in Brazil, the [WH Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WH_Group) in Hong Kong, [Mowi ASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mowi) in Norway, or the [Marubeni Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marubeni) in Japan. \n--- \nPositive resolution requires a filing only. No court ruling needs to be made.\n--- \nIf any of the relevant companies are acquired or merged, and the new entity files for bankruptcy within two years of the acquisition or merger, the question resolves positively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:01:44.720Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T23:58:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T23:58:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 December 2022, will the Women's Tennis Association (WTA) announce the lifting of its suspension of WTA tournaments in China and Hong Kong?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2227-before-1-december-2022-will-the-world-tennis-association-wta-announce-the-lifting-of-its-suspension-of-wta-tournaments-in-china-and-hong-kong",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "After tennis star Peng Shuai accused a high-ranking Chinese political official of sexual assault on social media and was subsequently hidden from public view, the WTA announced the immediate suspension of all WTA tournaments in China, including Hong Kong, in concern for her safety ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/12/01/1060578989/peng-shuai-wta-tournaments-china-suspended), [WTA](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/2384758/steve-simon-announces-wta-s-decision-to-suspend-tournaments-in-china), [ESPN](https://www.espn.com/tennis/story/_/id/32763277/wta-suspends-tournament-play-china-concern-peng-shuai-safety)). When the lifting of the suspension would take effect is immaterial, and a partial lifting would count. For the purposes of this question, Macau is considered a part of China.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:01:49.578Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 125,
- "numforecasters": 65,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.5714285714285714,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.42857142857142855,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:55:40.276Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 139383
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and China before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7450/deadly-clash-between-russia-and-china/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Wikipedia page on [Russo-Sino foreign relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Russian_relations_since_1991) notes that:\n\"The two countries share a land border which was demarcated in 1991, and they signed a Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation in 2001. On the eve of a 2013 state visit to Moscow by Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin remarked that the two nations were forging a special relationship. The two countries have enjoyed close relations militarily, economically, and politically, while supporting each other on various global issues.\"\nHowever, researchers for the Middle East Institute write:\n\"Although China and Russia have strengthened their relationship, there remain obstacles for close cooperation. For example, Russian commentators have increasingly raised concerns about China’s ambitions and influence in Central Asia, an area historically within the Russian sphere of influence. Russian leaders have expressed growing concerns regarding China’s investments in the energy-rich but sparsely-populated Russian Far East. The Middle East is a new theater for potential friction between the two powers.\" \nGiven these two states' large militaries and nuclear arsenals, it is important to gain a clearer sense of the probability of conflict between them.\nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and China before 2024?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable Russian and Chinese forces. \n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2023-12-31 UTC.\nResolution will come from reputable new sources or from direct reports from their government, or government officials.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:15:15.873Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 82,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T23:52:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T23:53:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The Ohio Senator elected in 2022 is a Republican other than Jordan, Mandel, and Renacci",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A86",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-01-25T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7861/china-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition). [Multiple](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-prepared-to-recognize-taliban-if-kabul-falls-sources-say-undermining-u-s-threats/ar-AANfznt) [sources](https://nypost.com/2021/08/13/china-prepares-to-recognize-taliban-if-it-topples-afghan-govt-report/) have reported that China is considering recognizing the Taliban.\nWill China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 2030-01-01, reliable media sources report that the Chinese government has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:29:29.558Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will single-use plastic bags be banned in all of the UAE before 8 January 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2133-will-single-use-plastic-bags-be-banned-in-all-of-the-uae-before-8-january-2023",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Abu Dhabi and Dubai, the two largest of the emirates that make up the UAE, have considered bans on various single-use plastic products, including bags ([Gulf Business](https://gulfbusiness.com/how-data-is-quantifying-the-impact-of-plastic-on-the-environment/), [Arabian Business](https://www.arabianbusiness.com/culture-society/442488-abu-dhabi-to-ban-single-use-plastic-bags-by-2021), [Euronews](https://www.euronews.com/next/2020/01/24/dubai-acts-to-stem-the-tide-of-single-use-plastic)). A ban imposed either by the UAE government or all seven individual emirate governments would count. The ban must take effect during the question's open period to count. A ban with limited exceptions (e.g., medical uses) would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:04:35.165Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 141,
- "numforecasters": 59,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/557/another-hit-by-two-cat-4-hurricanes-in-the-same-year/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Prior to 2017, the United States had never recorded landfall of more than one hurricane Category 4 or stronger in a single year. Since 1856, only [18 Category 4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_4_Atlantic_hurricanes) and [five Category 5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes) storms have made landfall in the United States. But in 2017 both Hurricanes Harvey and Irma struck as Category 4 storms, hitting Texas and Florida, respectively. Subsequently, hurricane Jose developed into a Category 4 and hurricane Maria strengthened into a Category 5 storm, devastating Puerto Rico.\nThe highly destructive Atlantic hurricane season has focused attention on the relationship between climate change and the strength of hurricanes. Because [warm ocean water fuels hurricanes](http://theconversation.com/do-hurricanes-feel-the-effects-of-climate-change-83761) and warmer water = stronger hurricanes (and climate change = warmer water) stronger storms may become the norm in future decades. \nWill two Category 4+ hurricanes hit the United States within the same year in the next five years?\nThis question will resolve as positive if at least two named Atlantic hurricanes, both classified as Category 4 or 5 storms upon landfall, arrive on the territory of the United States before December 31, 2022. This resolution criteria includes landfall on the Florida Keys or other islands that are part of one of the 50 United States.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:12:33.186Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 351,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-09-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-11-30T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T07:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Biden gets a new nominee on SCOTUS in 2022 with 1+ GOP vote",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A269",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-01-26T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Longbets series: By 2040 will the percentage of college-aged U.S. citizens who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States drop at least 50% from the level in 2011?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4319/longbets-series-by-2040-will-the-percentage-of-college-aged-us-citizens-who-are-attending-postsecondary-educational-institutions-in-the-united-states-drop-at-least-50-from-the-level-in-2011/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Brant von Goble and John C Leven summarize the reasons for their respective sides [here](http://longbets.org/676/). \nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Brant von Goble the winner then this question resolves positively. If they declare John C Leven the winner, this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:03:10.992Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At close of business on 30 December 2022, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2251-at-close-of-business-on-30-december-2022-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company, though Microsoft briefly held the title in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [US News & World Report](https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2021-10-29/apple-set-to-hand-crown-of-worlds-most-valuable-company-to-microsoft)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by the Companies Market Cap website on 30 December 2022 at approximately 5:00PM ET ([Companies Market Cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, the most valuable in the world",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No, but the most valuable in the United States",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:00:51.345Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 111,
- "numforecasters": 95,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, the most valuable in the world, No, but the most valuable in the United States, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9174/phase-iii-trials-on-cancer-vaccines-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There is a lot of excitement about the use of mRNA technology to develop therapeutic cancer vaccines. The German firm BioNTech have [four such vaccines undergoing Phase II trials](https://biontech.de/science/pipeline) at the moment.\nOutside of the crisis-mode of pandemic vaccines, it usually takes years to get from Phase II to approval.\nWill any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?\nIf BioNTech declares during 2022 that any of its four ongoing Phase II trials into cancer vaccines (BNT111 for melanoma, BNT113 for head and neck cancer, BNT122 for melanoma and for colorectal cancer) will proceed to Phase III trials, this question will resolve positively. Otherwise it will resolve negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:32:24.209Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-05T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:01:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Quantum-enhanced machine learning by 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8512/quantum-enhanced-machine-learning-by-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Quantum computing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_computing) is a type of computation that harnesses the collective properties of quantum states, such as superposition, interference, and entanglement, to perform calculations. [Quantum supremacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_supremacy) or quantum advantage is the goal of demonstrating that a programmable quantum device can solve a problem that no classical computer can solve in any feasible amount of time (irrespective of the usefulness of the problem).\nWhile machine learning algorithms are used to compute immense quantities of data, [quantum machine learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_machine_learning) utilizes qubits and quantum operations or specialized quantum systems to improve computational speed and data storage done by algorithms in a program.\nWill quantum-enhanced machine learning be demonstrated by 2040?\nThis question will resolve positive when a single quantum computer will be shown to be:\n---unambiguously capable of quantum advantage on some possibly unrelated task \n---utilizing quantum effects for the purpose of enhancing machine learning; utilizing only classical part of a quantum computer is not sufficient \n---capable of baseline machine learning; we will define baseline as exceeding performance of either:\n------85% top-1 accuracy on ImageNet with or without additional training data \n------[IMPALA](https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.01561v3) on any subset of at least 10 Atari games from the ALE on 200M steps \n------[BERT](https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.04805) on any subset of at least 5 GLUE or SuperGLUE individual benchmarks \n------any other benchmark for classical machine learning that is significantly and unambiguously more difficult than all 3 baselines above \nThe question can resolve based on a blog post, scientific paper or other type of announcement from a credible source. In case of significant ambiguity the question should default to waiting for independent replication before positive resolution.\nAnd resolve negative in 2040 otherwise.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:56:45.916Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-02-03T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Sam Bankman-Fried be the richest person in the world by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8313/sbf-as-the-richest-person-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Sam Bankman-Fried is currently [the richest person in crypto](https://www.forbes.com/profile/sam-bankman-fried/) as well as [the richest person under 30](https://www.forbes.com/video/6275693545001/the-richest-person-under-30-in-the-world/?sh=75f95349128d). He [plans on donating the majority of his wealth to effective charities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Bankman-Fried).\nWill Sam Bankman-Fried be the richest person in the world by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if, by January 1st, 2050, a comment on this Metaculus question links to an archive of the Bloomberg Billionaire Index OR the Forbes real-time list of billionaires indicating that Sam Bankman-Fried was the richest person in the world. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nAcceptable archive sites include [archive.is](http://archive.is) and [archive.org](http://archive.org). However, any archival site that is determined to be trustworthy by Metaculus moderators would also work.\nThis question will resolve at the minimum date of any such archive, if it exists.\n(These resolution criteria are similar to those of [this question about Elon Musk](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3612/will-elon-musk-be-the-richest-person-in-the-world-at-any-point-during-the-2020s/) created by [Matthew_Barnett](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/108770/) in February 2020.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:48:46.798Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-21T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2042-05-05T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\nMetaculus does not currently uses the mean forecast (although it is displayed on the website). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the average forecast.\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 300 questions.\nWill mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions?\nUsing the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the average forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance. \nThe set of questions used will be the next 300 binary questions to resolve, which close after this question opens.\nIf the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:31:55.885Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-09-30T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Someone other R is 2024 POTUS",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A246",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-10-17T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the WTA and ATP merge before 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6903/wta--atp-merger/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Professional [tennis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennis) is divided into two tours, the [ATP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ATP_Tour) for men and the [WTA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_Tennis_Association) for women. There has been speculation for some time whether they will merge into a single tour. This happened most recently following [Roger Federer](https://twitter.com/rogerfederer/status/1252922285096423424)'s tweet in 2020:\nJust wondering…..am I the only one thinking that now is the time for men’s and women’s tennis to be united and come together as one?\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Will ATP & WTA merge in next decade?\". The answer given was \"No\".\nWill the WTA and ATP merge before 2031?\nThis question resolves positively if both men and women play as part of one tour with one tour organiser. It will still resolve positive if not all tournaments are mixed (ie if some currently all-female or all-male tournaments are part of the tour, that doesn't trigger negative resolution as long as the overarching tour organiser is one body)\nThis question resolves negatively if men and women play as part of two separate tours on the basis of gender.\nIn the event that it is unclear (eg the tennis tour fractures into multiple tours (WTA, ATP, mixed tour)) we will ask [Jeff Sackmann's](http://www.tennisabstract.com/) opinion and resolve on the basis of that. (In the event he says it's unclear / is uncontactable / unwilling to decided it resolves ambiguous)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:56:23.707Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-17T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) [is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique](https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/09/sikandar-siddique-deler-vandene-naar-taler-racisme-derfor-allerede-kender-frie-groennes-nye-leder), a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of [The Alternative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Alternative_%28Denmark%29) (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but has been in trouble since 2019 following a leadership change. That party was founded by [Uffe Elbæk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uffe_Elb%C3%A6k), who is the outed leader, and who is now a co-founder of the Free Greens. The new party is now collecting signers (stillere) of which they need about 20k to get on the ballot for the next Danish general election. Siddique is [currently a member of the Danish parliament](https://www.ft.dk/medlemmer/mf/s/sikandar-siddique), following his election in 2019 for The Alternative party.\nPolls for Denmark can be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Danish_general_election) and [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/denmark/). As of writing, the Alternative is polling below 1.0%, and Free Greens are not currently part of the polls, as they generally don't include parties that are not on the ballot. Denmark has a 2% [election threshold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_threshold).\nWill Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?\n--- \nIf Free Greens obtain any parliamentary seat in the next Danish general election ([in 2023 or before](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Danish_general_election)), this resolves positively. If they fail to get the required number of votes, this resolves negatively. If the party disbands or does not run at all, it resolves negatively as well.\n--- \nIf any sitting member of the parliament converts to Free Greens, this has no effect on this question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:19:08.333Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 86,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by July 4, 2022?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/RECNC-008",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If Congress.gov contains documentation of a bill that “passed Senate” between Issuance and July 04, 2022 and contains reconciliation instructions, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see RECNC in the Rulebook for such details.\n\nSuch bills typically begin with the phrase: “To provide for reconciliation pursuant to…\"\n\nThis market will close the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the occurrence of the event or July 4, 2022 at 11:59 PM. It will expire the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following occurrence of the event, the first 10:00 AM following the release of data for July 4, 2022, or 10:00 AM one week after July 4, 2022. . The resolution source is: Bills that have passed the Senate between Issuance and July 04, 2022, as captured by Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.31,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.69,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4,
- "yes_bid": 27,
- "yes_ask": 32,
- "spread": 5,
- "shares_volume": 15458
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many business applications will be made in the US in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2129-how-many-business-applications-will-be-made-in-the-us-in-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, a record number of business applications were made in 2020 ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/business-formation-surged-last-year-confounding-expectations/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-13/u-s-business-starts-enjoyed-their-best-year-ever-amid-covid-19), [Economic Innovation Group](https://eig.org/news/the-startup-surge-business-formation-trends-in-2020)). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and outcome determined using data as reported by the US Census Bureau ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/econ/currentdata/dbsearch?program=BFS&startYear=2004&endYear=2021&categories=TOTAL&dataType=BA_BA&geoLevel=US&adjusted=1&submit=GET+DATA&releaseScheduleId=), parameters are set with the link, [Census Bureau - Business Formation Statistics Methodology](https://www.census.gov/econ/bfs/methodology.html)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 4.2 million",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 4.2 million and 4.8 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 4.8 million but fewer than 5.4 million",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 5.4 million and 6.0 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.31,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 6.0 million",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:04:41.752Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 115,
- "numforecasters": 27,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 4.2 million, Between 4.2 million and 4.8 million, inclusive, More than 4.8 million but fewer than 5.4 million, Between 5.4 million and 6.0 million, inclusive, More than 6.0 million"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden resign during his first term?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7136/Will-Joe-Biden-resign-during-his-first-term",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/25/2021.\nThis market shall resolve to Yes in the event that President Joe Biden resigns and permanently departs from the office of the presidency before the End Date listed below. A temporary transfer of presidential powers and duties under Section 3 of the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 01/20/2025 11:59 AM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/25/2021 10:57 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiries: This market is solely about whether Joe Biden will resign from and leave the office of the Presidency of the United States before the End Date. No scenario other than Mr. Biden resigning from and leaving office before the End Date will cause this market to resolve to Yes. Mr. Biden's departure from office for any other reason will not cause this market to resolve to Yes. If Mr. Biden announces a resignation effective at a future date, but does not leave the office of the Presidency by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:56:31.857Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 1446164
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8140/india-have-200-nuclear-warheads-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nAs of May 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated India as having 160 nuclear warheads.\nWill India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if the total number of nuclear warheads (fission or thermonuclear) India is estimated to possess as of the most recent [FAS estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) available on 12-31-23 exceeds 200. This includes both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. It includes warheads that are deployed, in reserve/nondeployed, or retired but still intact.\nResolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).\nIf they do not publish relevant estimates anytime in 2023, they will be contacted in the final quarter of 2023 to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively or negatively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, this question will resolve ambiguously. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.34,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6599999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:40:26.889Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 56,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-31T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Reliable automatic coding of described rules by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/495/reliable-automatic-coding-of-described-rules-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In a [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/), we asked \"How long until a machine-learning system can take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python?\" While interesting and understandable, this criterion suffers from possible ambiguity and difficulty in exact quantification.\nAs a supplement, there is an interesting framework, metric, and dataset provided by [DeepMind's \"card2code\" dataset](https://github.com/deepmind/card2code), which consists of Magic the Gathering and Hearthstone cards, in addition to Java and Python implementations of card logic, respectively. The task is to translate the rules/instructions on the card into an accurate code implementing them.\nThe state-of-the-art at question launch is 16.7% accuracy, achieved by the Syntactic Neural Modal (SNM) presented in [this paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1704.01696v1); see also [EFF AI benchmarks](https://www.eff.org/ai/metrics).\nEffective semantic parsing is a requisite skills of a general AI system, and code generation is potentially a very powerful capability, so we ask the following question that will benchmark how well a system can write general-purpose code:\nWill a code generation system achieve 75% accuracy on the Hearthstone card set by 2030?\nPositive resolution occurs if a paper is published or posted describing a code generation system that has credibly achieved 75% on Hearthstone card set by 2030.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:11:50.810Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 166,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-07-23T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7130/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-New-Hampshire",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.5333333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.4666666666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:56:16.796Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 139087
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the Democratic nomination in the IL-06 House election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7675/Who-will-win-the-Democratic-nomination-in-the-IL-06-House-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2022 election to the United States House of Representatives from Illinois' Sixth Congressional District.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Sean Casten",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marie Newman",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:06:06.299Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 7132
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Sean Casten, Marie Newman"
- },
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some \"other risk\" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9051/other-risk-to-cause-near-extinction/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Ragnarök Question Series series features questions about the following risks, of which a majority are mostly anthropogenic (i.e. created by humans):\n---[Natural pandemics](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8745/) \n---[Artificial Intelligence](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/) \n---[Synthetic biology](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/) \n---[Nanotechnology](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/) \n---[Climate change and geoengineering](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/) \n---[Nuclear war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/) \nThis notably omits risks that have been discussed in the relevant literature, such as non-anthropogenic risks (such as supervolcanoes, solar flares, asteriod impacts) as well as various anthropogenic ones (such as chemical warfare, conventional warfare, civilizational collapse, amongst others).\nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to \"other risk\"?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9050/) Now it is asked,\nGiven that an catastrophe occurs caused by \"other risks\" that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves ambiguous if a catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) that is caused by \"other\" causes does not occur. It resolves positively if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. \nThe question resolves negative if a global catastrophe caused by \"other risks\" occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) the post-catastrophe population remains above 5% of the pre-catastrophe population over the subsequent 25 years.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:25:44.444Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-29T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-12-31T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2124-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden's approval rating be greater than 41.5% on February 11, 2022? ",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/APPROVE-025",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "PLEASE NOTE: The Expiration Time is 10:00 AM. This is a change from previous iterations when it was 4:00 PM.\n\nIf President Biden's approval rating is greater than || Percentage Points ||% at 10:00 AM on February 11, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see APPROVE in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.. The resolution source is: RealClearPolitics’s average U.S. presidential approval rating (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "yes_bid": 2,
- "yes_ask": 5,
- "spread": 3,
- "shares_volume": 3866
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Nightmare Alley win Best Picture at the Oscars?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/OSCARS-036-8",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If || Nominee || has won || Award || at the 94th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see OSCARS in the Rulebook for more details. The 94th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 27, 2022. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Oscars posting the winners on the website of the Academy and December 31, 2022. . The resolution source is: Award winners at the 94th Academy Awards according to the website of the Oscars. (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.782Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "yes_bid": 1,
- "yes_ask": 3,
- "spread": 2,
- "shares_volume": 9272
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Israel be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9492/israeli-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) \nOne of the most important [papers](https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674%2819%2931210-3.pdf) on embryo selection was coauthored by Israeli, Greek, and American researchers including Hebrew University's Shai Carmi, and found an expected gain of 2.5 IQ points using 2018 polygenic scores. It was [reported](https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-research-Can-genetic-testing-and-selection-make-your-baby-smart-608550) [on](https://www.timesofisrael.com/scientists-say-smart-and-tall-designer-babies-out-of-reach-for-now/) in the Israeli media. In an [article on genetic engineering](https://www.docdroid.net/kkx0XperMZ/haaretz-brave-new-baby-pdf#page=2) in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Carmi is quoted as saying that the gains may be up to seven IQ points in the foreseeable future.\nIsrael has [generous](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240566182030023X) [state-subsidized](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [pre-implantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) through in-vitro fertilization (IVF) for a large basket of genetic diseases. Israel's public health insurance covers PGD for up to two children per family. The practice spans the Israeli religious spectrum, from secular to ultra-Orthodox. Israelis are also [avid aborters](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium.MAGAZINE-the-abortion-conundrum-how-far-israelis-go-to-ensure-their-babies-are-born-perfect-1.7362524) of fetuses with Down Syndome.\nIsrael had the [fastest COVID vaccine rollout in the world](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/israels-covid-vaccine-rollout-is-the-fastest-in-the-world.html), [leads in 21st century Nobel Prizes per capita](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/05/29/four-nobel-truths/), has a [very developed science and technology sector](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_Israel) and [a developed biotech industry and stem cell industry in particular](https://www.haaretz.com/.premium-stem-cell-research-a-boom-industry-in-israel-1.5238166), and is a [leader in IVF](https://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/18/world/middleeast/18israel.html#:~:text=Unlike%20countries%20where%20couples%20can,the%20procedure%20in%20the%20world.) and [fertility technology.](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) Israel is a leader in many 21st century technologies, such as [cyber](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/half-of-global-cybersecurity-investment-has-been-in-israel-pm-bennett-says-1.10546684)[security](https://www.jns.org/israel-ranks-among-strongest-global-cyber-powers/) and [desalination](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/israel-proves-the-desalination-era-is-here/). It is expected to be early on [approving cultivated meat](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8846/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-israel/) as well as [self-driving](https://unitedwithisrael.org/self-driving-robotaxis-to-hit-tel-aviv-in-2022/) [cars](https://www.jpost.com/jpost-tech/mobileye-unveils-new-self-driving-taxi-will-launch-in-tel-aviv-in-2022-678860).\nJudaism is generally bioethically permissive. Jewish authorities [universally agree](https://www.nature.com/articles/nm0309-238b) that a preimplantation embryo does not have the same sacred title to life as an implanted embryo. Unlike Christianity, Judaism [supports](https://www.rollcall.com/2005/06/10/evangelicals-orthodox-jews-split-on-stem-cells/) stem cell research. Orthodox Israeli physician [Shimon Glick](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shimon_Glick) [wrote](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-experts-pan-chinese-gene-editing-as-drastic-human-experimentation/) that it is [ethical](https://philpapers.org/rec/GLISJT) [to raise IQ using genetic engineering](https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.884.114&rep=rep1&type=pdf), and that Jewish law does not prohibit it and in fact supports it because it raises quality of life. Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox Jewish Israelis are [avid](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [consumers](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) of Israel's pre-implantation genetic diagnosis and of the genetic testing that [Dor Yeshorim](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dor_Yeshorim) does, and Israel has an [embryo selection company](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) started by an ultra-Orthodox mother of four. [Tay-Sachs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tay%E2%80%93Sachs_disease), a genetic disease common among [Ashkenazi Jews](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashkenazi_Jews), who make up about half of Israel's population and about 40% of the total population, has been [virtually eliminated](https://www.haaretz.com/1.4706480) in Israel, where only one baby with Tay-Sachs was born in 2003. \nWill Israel be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively if Israel is the first country with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\nMoreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:42:51.550Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Someone else is 2024 POTUS",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A241",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-10-16T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Turkey join the European Union by June 29, 2022?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/TEU-0001",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If Turkey joins the European Union by 6:00 PM ET on June 29, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see TEU in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The list of member countries of the European Union. (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "yes_bid": 0,
- "yes_ask": 99,
- "spread": 99,
- "shares_volume": 7284
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.5980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.40196078431372545,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:47.789Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 139872
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": ">=51 Dem-held seats after 2022 Senate elections",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A171",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-06-04T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Harry Markopolos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markopolos) is known for having reported the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme. Now he has put out a [report](http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2019/8/15/2019_08_15_GE_Whistleblower_Report.pdf) claiming that General Electric is conducting large-scale accounting [fraud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Electric#Fraud_allegations). Several analysts have defended GE, describing the report’s analysis as [uncompelling](https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-comfortable-with-ges-accounting-shrugs-off-markopolos-report-51567525632) and [incorrect](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3496236-deutsche-bank-buying-ge-fraud-report). GE has denied these charges, and described Markopolos’ report as [market manipulation](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ge-accounts-ceo/ge-ceo-calls-markopolos-report-market-manipulation-and-false-idUSKCN1V525O) (Markopolos will [receive a cut](https://youtu.be/2VCtB3E0JB0?t=433) from trading profit from an unnamed hedge fund).\nGE has been [charged before](https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2009/2009-178.htm) for accounting fraud.\nNote that GE being criminally convicted of fraud is not the same as having a financial situation that is insolvent. This question aims at the latter.\nWill General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before 00:00 UTC Sep 18th of 2024?\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:40:37.805Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 162,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-09-18T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-09-18T16:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n--- \nhow many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n--- \nwhat proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \nSee [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter.\nThis question conditions on there being a single nuclear conflict involving more than one hundred offensive nuclear detonations by 2100. That is, the question resolves ambiguously if that condition isn't met. (But this condition doesn't require that the first nuclear conflict after the question opening involves more than 100 detonations.) \nDetonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days or less of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nSee also\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8398/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\nIf there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?\nThe question resolves positively if:\n1-- \nthat condition is met by 2100-01-01, and\n2-- \nat least 3 credible sources state or estimate that, within 10 years of the final detonation as part of the first conflict that meets that condition, more than 1 billion fatalities were caused by that conflict.\nIf a source gives a range as its estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used as its estimate.\nThis question will also resolve positively if the first nuclear conflict meeting the above-mentioned condition clearly causes more than 1 billion fatalities but also causes sufficient civilizational collapse that there are no or extremely few remaining credible sources on any topic. We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus score seems unlikely to be tracked or cared about in that scenario, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.\nFor simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess credible sources on what fatalities should be considered to be \"caused\" by the nuclear conflict. \n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:52:25.839Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2061-04-14T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Senate break legislative filibuster with less than 3/5 support in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7692/Will-the-Senate-break-legislative-filibuster-with-less-than-3-5-support-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on January 12, 2022, but prior to the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators duly chosen and sworn.\nA cloture vote on a motion to proceed shall be relevant for the resolution of this market. \nFor purposes of this market, a qualifying invocation of cloture must occur through a recorded vote. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:06:52.421Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 13963
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [land speed record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_speed_record) (or absolute land speed record) is the highest speed achieved by a person using a vehicle on land. There is no single body for validation and regulation; in practice the Category C (\"Special Vehicles\") flying start regulations are used, officiated by regional or national organizations under the auspices of the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA).\nThe land speed record (LSR) is standardized as the speed over a course of fixed length, averaged over two runs (commonly called \"passes\"). Two runs are required in opposite directions within one hour, and a new record mark must exceed the previous one by at least one percent to be validated.\nThe current land speed record was set on October 15, 1997 by Andrew Duncan Green, a British Royal Air Force fighter pilot, who achieved a speed of 1,228 km/h (763 mph) with the [ThrustSSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThrustSSC), which became the first land vehicle to officially break the sound barrier. \nThis question asks: will the ThrustSSC's land speed record be surpassed before 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by press release from the FIA, or credible media reports, indicating that a new land speed record has been set and validated.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:41:09.324Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 182,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3360/will-8-of-us-adults-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-before-2036/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as Vegetarian (Including Vegans) \nWill ≥8% of adults in the U.S. self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before Jan 1st, 2036, in a major poll of a representative cross section of U.S. adults?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The source used for the purpose of this question is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult other polls if i) there is especially strong evidence that respondents are a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 4,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:46:37.177Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 256,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2034-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3433/will-an-ocean-be-fertilised-with-at-least-50-tonnes-of-iron-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Iron fertilisation is the introduction of iron to iron-poor areas of the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton production to thereby draw carbon out of the atmosphere and into the ocean. Phytoplankton converts some of the CO2 dissolved in the ocean into biomass, which is then transported into deep sea by ocean circulation and gravity; effectively resulting in the long-term sequestering of carbon [(Yoon et al., 2018)](https://www.biogeosciences.net/15/5847/2018/bg-15-5847-2018.pdf).\nResearchers worldwide have conducted 13 major iron-fertilization experiments in the open ocean since 1990 [(Tollefson, 2017)](https://www.nature.com/news/iron-dumping-ocean-experiment-sparks-controversy-1.22031). All have sought to test whether stimulating phytoplankton growth can increase the amount of carbon dioxide that the organisms pull out of the atmosphere and deposit in the deep ocean when they die. Determining how much carbon is sequestered during such experiments has proved difficult, however, and scientists have raised concerns about potential adverse effects, such as [toxic algal blooms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmful_algal_bloom).\nWill an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?\nThis question resolves positive if a single geoengineering effort to fertilise an ocean with the intention of stimulating biomass growth successfully introduces 50 tonnes of iron into an ocean by the end of 2023. \nThe fertiliser must contain the equivalent of 50 tonnes of iron, which contains [895335 moles of iron](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron/to/grams). Hence, fertilisers that contain compounds of iron must also contain at least 895335 moles of iron. For example, [136 tonnes of iron sulfate (FeSO4)](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron+Sulfate/to/grams) contains roughly 895335 moles of iron. In the case the fertiliser is a mixture of different iron-containing compounds, the weight of iron shall be determined by the same method for the individual compounds multiplied by the fraction of its weight to total weight.\nA single geoengineering effort is here defined as a project in which the relevant actors act on behalf of various organisations (e.g. national government, research organisation) that coordinate in precise terms on the employed geoengineering methods as well as the the extent to, and the duration for which these are to be deployed.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:49:37.384Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 153,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": ">=49 Dem-held seats after 2022 Senate elections",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A169",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-06-04T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8370/us-reaction-on-natos-offensive-detonation/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Different nuclear conflict scenarios would hugely differ in how harmful they'd be in the near term and how much existential risk they create. In light of this, it would be helpful to have a clearer sense of whether it's plausible that there'd be a nuclear conflict in which a NATO state detonates a nuclear weapon, but the US doesn't. We ask this question to inform ourselves of the overall risk and determine how best to intervene to reduce this risk.\nDetonations will be considered part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days or less of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).\nIf NATO ceases to exist by 2030, from that point onwards we consider NATO countries to be all countries that were [part of NATO as of 2021](https://www.eata.ee/en/nato-2/nato-member-states/).\nSee also\n---[Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and a NATO country before 2024, without US involvement?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8148/clash-between-russia-and-nato-ex-us-by-2024/) \nIf a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of an offensive detonation by the US in the same conflict. The first detonation in this conflict must occur between 2021-11-01 and 2030-01-01.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:51:28.910Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the \"silver\" Turing Test be passed by 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Loebner Prize](https://www.aisb.org.uk/events/loebner-prize) (mentioned in a [previous question](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/106/)) is an annual competition in artificial intelligence that awards prizes to the chatterbot considered by the judges to be the most human-like. (A \"chatterbot\" is a computer program that conducts a conversation via textual methods.)\nThe format of [the competition](http://www.aisb.org.uk/events/loebner-prize) is that of a standard Turing test. In each round, a human judge simultaneously holds textual conversations with a computer program and a human being via computer. Based upon the responses, the judge must decide which is which.\nA bronze-level prize has been awarded annually to the most human-seeming chatterbot in the competition. However, there are two one-time-only prizes that have never been awarded. The \"silver\" prize is offered for the first chatterbot that judges cannot distinguish from a real human and which can convince judges that the human is the computer program.\nA \"gold\" level prize awarded to the first chatterbot that judges cannot distinguish from a real human in a Turing test that includes deciphering and understanding text, visual, and auditory input.\nThis question pertains to whether or not the \"silver\" prize (text-only) will be awarded by the end of 2025.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:45.062Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1139,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-02-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-03-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7987/commercial-paper-rate-and-cpi-wont-diverge/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is linked to a fortified essay by Arnold Kling on two competing theories of inflation. The resolution of this question is meant to support or undermine his preferred theory. [Read the essay](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7995/two-theories-of-inflation) to learn more about how this question applies to the 'Government Debt Theory' of inflation. \nThe [CPI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_price_index), or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated.\nOne approach for extracting the trend in inflation from short-term fluctuations in the CPI is to weight the food and energy components at zero on the grounds that volatility in these components can be misleading. The result is the \"core CPI,\" which this forecast question uses, and which is released monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (series [CUUR0000SA0L1E](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E))\n[Commercial paper](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commercial_paper) is a type of security issued by large corporations to obtain funds to meet short-term debt obligations. Their real interest rate can be calculated by subtracting the CPI inflation rate from their nominal interest rate.\nIn 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent (here, month-over-month annualized inflation), will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?\nThis question resolves ambiguous if there is no month in 2022 where core [CPI inflation](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E) is above 3%.\nThis resolves positive if there is at least one month in 2022 where core CPI inflation is above 3%, and also for all such months, inflation is at most 3 percentage points higher than the [3-month prime commercial paper interest rate](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RIFSPPNA2P2D90NB).\nThis resolves negative if there is at least one month in 2022 where core CPI inflation is above 3%, and for any such month, inflation is more than 3 percentage points higher than the 3-month prime commercial paper interest rate.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:34:26.650Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-02T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed in 2022?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/SCOTUS-001",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If the Senate confirms a new justice to the Supreme Court between Issuance and December 31, 2022, then the contract resolves to Yes. Else, the contract resolves to No. Please see SCOTUS in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nIf the event occurs prior to the Expiration Date, then the market will close and expire early. It will close and expire at the expiration time one day following the occurrence of the event.\n. The resolution source is: Nominations to the position of Associate Justice or Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States that are confirmed by the Senate between Issuance and December 31, 2022 according to Congress.gov. (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.06000000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4,
- "yes_bid": 93,
- "yes_ask": 95,
- "spread": 2,
- "shares_volume": 127530
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will ANY of the top 10 most popular baby names in the U.S. (as of 2018) still be in the top 10 in 2048?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1060/will-any-of-the-top-10-most-popular-baby-names-in-the-us-as-of-2018-still-be-in-the-top-10-in-2048/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [Baby Center](https://www.babycenter.com/top-baby-names-2018.htm), the most popular baby names for girls in 2018 are:\n1--Emma \n2--Olivia \n3--Ava \n4--Isabella \n5--Sophia \n6--Amelia \n7--Mia \n8--Charlotte \n9--Harper \n10-Mila \nThe most popular baby names for boys are:\n1--Liam \n2--Noah \n3--Logan \n4--Oliver \n5--Mason \n6--Lucas \n7--Ethan \n8--Elijah \n9--Aiden \n10-James \nIf history is any guide, there will be a fair amout of turnover on this list 30 years from now. \nWill any of the 20 names above remain somewhere in the top 10 in 2048?\nFor the purposes of this question, we would refer to the [Social Security Administration's](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/) baby name popularity analysis.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:19:43.378Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the next UK General Election take place after the Election on the 12th December 2019?",
- "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.167249197",
- "platform": "Betfair",
- "description": "This market will be settled on the morning of the General Election following the start of voting or on Jan 1 2024. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. Subsequent events would not affect the settlement of this market. This market will not be actively managed. Customers are solely responsible for their positions at all times.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "2022",
- "probability": 0.054883552987903955,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "2023",
- "probability": 0.1733164831196967,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "2024 or later",
- "probability": 0.7717999638923995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:00:25.985Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4,
- "volume": 45540.68
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "2022, 2023, 2024 or later"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the high in Chicago be over 33° on Thursday?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/CHIHIGH-262",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for || Date ||, is strictly greater than || Degrees ||°, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see CHIHIGH in the Rulebook for more details.\n\nPlease be advised to check to see what temperatures have occurred previously in the day. While the market resolves based on the finalized report from the NWS, traders should use other data sources--including other preliminary NWS reporting--to inform their trades.\n\nThe Last Trading Time will be 11:59 PM ET on February 10, 2022 regardless of any data releases or events occurring. Expiration will occur on the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for February 10, 2022, or one week after February 10, 2022.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for February 10, 2022, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.93,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.06999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.782Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "yes_bid": 91,
- "yes_ask": 100,
- "spread": 9,
- "shares_volume": 3504
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8444/tesla-most-valuable-traded-co-before-23/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined, [climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020.](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU)\nIn October 2021, [Tesla became a trillion-dollar company](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59045100), after its stock soared by more than 1,000% since January 2020. This makes the company [one of the most valuable in the world](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_public_corporations_by_market_capitalization#2021). Other companies with a market capitalisation above $1 trillion include Apple, Microsoft, [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com), and Google parent Alphabet.\nWill Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if before January 1, 2023, Tesla is credibly reported by reputable financial media sources (e.g. The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Bloomberg, The Nikkei) to be the world's most-valuable publicly-traded corporation by market capitalization. The question resolves negatively if this does not occur.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:54:24.787Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 128,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9119/holdens-bet-with-zvi-about-omicron/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9120/ambiguous-resolution-of-holdens-bet-with-zvi/) \nOn December 22, 2021 [Holden Karnofsky](https://www.metaculus.com/public-figure/holden-karnofsky/) published [Bet with Zvi about Omicron](https://www.cold-takes.com/bet-with-zvi-about-omicron/) on his Cold Takes blog:\n[Zvi Mowshowitz](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/) and I have agreed to the following bet:\n--- \nIf at least 75% of the USA COVID-19 cases between 1/1/22 and 2/28/23 (inclusive) occur between 1/1/22 and 2/28/22 (inclusive), I pay Zvi $40.\n--- \nOtherwise, Zvi pays me $60.\n--- \nThis bet is intended to apply to Omicron and earlier strains, and it will be a “push” if a post-Omicron strain “muddies the waters” in the following sense: counting cases from the new strain would cause me to win, and not counting them would cause Zvi to win.\n--- \nWe'll use [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:COVID-19_pandemic_data/United_States_medical_cases) for total COVID-19 cases and [this CDC data](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions) for variant information. Each of us has the option to appeal to a third party (whom we've agreed on) to perform an adjustment for undertesting.\nThe concept this is trying to capture is that Zvi thinks there’s a 70% chance of the following: “Omicron will blow through the US by 3/1/2022, leading to herd immunity and something like the ‘end’ of the COVID-19 pandemic.” I think there’s only a 50% chance of this (and I would’ve had a lower probability before learning that Zvi thinks it). We bet at 60%.\nWill Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?\nThis question will resolve positively if Holden wins the above bet with Zvi, according to Holden's and Zvi's public agreement to resolve the bet. Resolution is positive if Holden wins, negative if Zvi wins, and ambiguous if they declare the bet is a \"push\".\nA related Metaculus question on whether this bet will resolve ambigously can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9120/ambiguous-resolution-of-holdens-bet-with-zvi/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:29:54.536Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 200,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-02T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-08T05:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-03-01T18:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. 7-day COVID-19 Case average be below 100,000 by April 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-be-below-100000-by-april-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 Case average is below 100,000 for any day ranging from January 6, 2022 to April 1, 2022 inclusive, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases. \n\nThe market will be checked daily at 8 PM to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 100,000. The market will be checked daily at 8 PM to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 100,000. If an average below 100,000 is detected, it will be checked again 7 days later. If it is still under 100,000 at that point, the market will be resolved. If it is 100,000 or above, then the market will not resolve based on that data point.\n\nThe final check will be 1 week after the last date in the range.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.8507254640716844965401921249397385",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.1492745359283155034598078750602615",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.518Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "234",
- "liquidity": "7025.33",
- "tradevolume": "16055.92",
- "stars": 4
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0xd5Aa77b04c58293A317Fa66CDFf5baf72651bcb0"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a CANZUK Free Movement Treaty be Adopted Before 2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7217/canzuk-free-movement-zone-by-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "See [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CANZUK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CANZUK)\nCANZUK is an acronym for Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. \nIt's used for a proposed free movement alliance amongst those countries modeled upon what already exists between Australia and New Zealand. Citizens, especially labor, could then move nearly as freely among them as among the states in the US.\nThough the idea has been around for decades, Brexit has heightened UK interest in the concept as a replacement for the EU.\nWill a CANZUK Free Movement Treaty be Agreed Before 2029?\nThe question resolves positively if a free movement treaty (or treaties) including but not limited to Canada, New Zealand, Australia and the United Kingdom is adopted.\nFree Movement means that a citizen using only a passport from one participating country may (with few restrictions) move among, reside in and work in any of them.\nResolution needs only that the treaty be adopted by the deadline; it need not have taken effect.\nMovement restrictions regarding criminals and disease transmission don't matter as long as a passport from one country generally makes one eligible to work in any. See the Trans-Tasman Travel Agreement (TTTA) as a model. Indeed, an expansion of the TTTA itself to include Canada and the UK would be a canonical positive resolution.\nIt doesn't matter if Scotland secedes from the UK. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:06:30.974Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-07-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-07T20:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will another Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/millennium-prize-solution-before-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Millennium Prize Problems](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/millennium-prize-problems) are seven problems in mathematics that were stated by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. The problems are:\n--- \n[Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/birch-and-swinnerton-dyer-conjecture)\n--- \n[Hodge conjecture](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/hodge-conjecture)\n--- \n[Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/navier–stokes-equation)\n--- \n[P versus NP problem](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem)\n--- \n[Poincaré conjecture](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis)\n--- \n[Riemann hypothesis](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis), and \n--- \n[Yang–Mills existence and mass gap.](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/yang–mills-and-mass-gap)\nA correct solution to any of the problems results in a US $1M prize (sometimes called a Millennium Prize) being awarded by the institute. The only solved problem is the [Poincaré conjecture](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/poincaré-conjecture), which was solved by Grigori Perelman in 2003.\nWill another Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028?\nThis question will resolve in the positive if the Clay Institute accepts a solution to one of the six remaining outstanding problems before the end of 2027. The prize does not have to have been awarded or accepted by this time, as long as it is generally accepted that the Institute recognises the proof.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:08:23.334Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 236,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-05-28T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2017-12-31T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T12:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9700/carrick-flynn-to-win-or-6-democratic-primary/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Carrick Flynn](https://www.carrickflynnfororegon.com/) just [announced](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPMJ6b-xhtk&feature=youtu.be) his candidacy for the US House of Representatives in Oregon's newly-created [6th congressional district](https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2022). \nCarrick is running as a Democrat. The primary will take place on [17 May 2022](https://sos.oregon.gov/voting/Pages/current-election.aspx).\nWill Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district?\nThis question will resolve positively if Carrick Flynn is the projected winner of the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district according to at least two of the following networks that make race calls: ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox, Decision Desk HQ, Associated Press, Reuters, NY Times.\nIf there are conflicting race calls, we will wait for [certification](https://sos.oregon.gov/voting/Pages/current-election.aspx) by the Oregon Secretary of State to resolve this question. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:52:14.866Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-02-08T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-05-16T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-18T09:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3870/will-there-turn-out-to-be-widespread-fossils-of-algae-and-lichens-on-mars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A recent [provocative paper](http://journalofastrobiology.com/MarsGaleCraterLife.html) by a quite reputable set of astrobiologists and others has claimed that in Gale crater on Mars, \nspecimens resembling terrestrial algae, lichens, microbial mats, stro-matolites, ooids, tubular-shaped formations, and mineralized fossils of metazoans and calcium-carbonate encrusted cyanobacteria were observed and tentatively identified.\nbut of course\nThat some or most of these specimens may be abiotic, cannot be ruled out.\nThis would, of course, be pretty monumental if true. We'll ask whether it will turn out that:\n\"The tentative claims of the 2020 Joseph et al. paper are basically correct and a significant fraction of the features identified there were, in fact, fossils of life on Mars.\" \nThis question is a bit experimental, one of a series of \"self-resolving\" ones. Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of Jan 1, 2025 the community prediction is > 95% or < 5%, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively.\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of Jan 1, 2030, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of question close, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:58:33.313Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 229,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8899/hungary-eu-exit-referendum-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Hungary [joined the EU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Hungarian_European_Union_membership_referendum) with 9 other eastern European nations after a 2003 referendum which saw 83.8% of voters in favor of joining the EU. Since then, Hungary has recieved [criticism from EU leaders](https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/24/europe/hungary-eu-lgbt-mark-rutte-intl/index.html) for a June 2021 bill which banned LGBT content in Hungarian schools. CNN journalist Luke McGee noted that Article 7, a mechanism for the EU to expel a member state, would be \"very unlikely\" to occur, as it requires the unanimous vote of all other member nations.\nFinance Minister Mihály Varga [said in April 2021](https://dailynewshungary.com/hungary-to-leave-the-eu-with-the-start-of-the-next-decade/) that he would vote to remain in the EU if a hypothetical referendum were held, but added\nthere is a chance for a new perspective on the issue. Especially if the attacks coming from Brussels become permanent because of our choices of values.\nPrime Minister Viktor Orban downplayed the suggestion of leaving the EU, [saying in November 2021](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungary-will-not-leave-eu-wants-reform-it-pm-orban-says-2021-11-14/),\nWe don't want to leave the EU at all, they can't get rid of us so easily [...] We want to keep our sovereignty and we don't want to find ourselves in a united states of Europe.\nWill Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?\nThis question will resolve positively if, before January 1 2023, the government of Hungary announces a date to hold a national referendum on a proposal to leave the EU. The date of the referendum may occur at any time, but the announcement must occur before 2023. The referendum need not be legally binding, only be open to Hungarian voters with a proposal whose primary purpose is to leave the EU.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:17:30.839Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 173,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7040/wheat-successfully-de-allergenized-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Wheat protein](https://www.vitafoodsinsights.com/ingredients/wheat-protein-emerge-healthier-alternative-whey-protein) is currently one of the most popular forms of alternative protein in plant based products, especially plant based meat. Wheat protein has robust texturizing properties for plant based meat as the fibers from gluten development mirror the traditional muscle fibers found in meat. \nHowever, one limitation to the rise of wheat based products is the gluten-free movement and the growing number of people diagnosed with Celiac Disease. As wheat is [one of more common allergens](https://www.foodallergy.org/living-food-allergies/food-allergy-essentials/common-allergens), and must be recorded on food packaging labels, the rise of wheat texturized meat could deter some consumers from adopting the alternative protein trend.\nScientists believe that by [altering the genetic code of products like wheat](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1541-4337.12288), they could make a less allergenic form of wheat. Using CRISPR based technology to strip the allergenic proteins away from the plant’s DNA, scientists could potentially de-allergize gluten.\nHortense Dodo, founder of IngateyGen, a food tech company based in North Carolina, [comments that](https://www.verywellhealth.com/engineering-allergy-free-wheat-peanuts-5104835),\n“Early efforts to genetically modify allergenic crops used a technology called RNA Interference (RNAi). This technique requires scientists to splice a foreign piece of RNA—from another plant, for instance—into the genetic code they are trying to modify…. Plants that are edited using CRISPR may also be approved quicker than those using older RNAi technology. “[CRISPR] is a more powerful, more precise technology,\" Dodo says. \"In terms of regulation, it is much easier to get your product to the market in the U.S.\"\nWill wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication or consumer product demonstrates a process that successfully produces de-allergenized wheat. The wheat that is produced must have < 10% of typical wheat content of one these allergens: albumin, globulin, gliadin or gluten, and show a statistically significant reduced or prevented immunological response. The end-product must be suitable for human consumption (though not necessarily approved for human consumption), and the crop may be of any species. This process might involve treating crop post-harvest, or genetically modifying relevant crops. The relevant publication must be first available by 2030-01-01, though it may be published at any date.\nRelevant studies must be sufficiently convincing (either showing that the chemical composition reduces the allergen concentration to tolerable levels, or by producing significant results in large-scale human trials). In case of ambiguity, admins may consult the relevant alt-meat [resolution council]().\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:00:36.972Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 121,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T22:34:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:34:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2599/will-any-of-the-20-most-valuable-public-companies-in-the-united-states-as-of-january-2019-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of close of trading on January 28 2019, the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States are as follows.\n(Name, ticker symbol, market cap in USD billions)\n1--Microsoft Corporation MSFT 806.62 \n2--[Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) Inc AMZN 800.88 \n3--Alphabet Inc GOOG / GOOGL 760.23 \n4--Apple Inc AAPL 739.27 \n5--Facebook Inc FB 354.29 \n6--Johnson & Johnson JNJ 345.95 \n7--JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM 345.44 \n8--Exxon Mobil Corp XOM 301.62 \n9--Bank of America Corp BAC 290.79 \n10-Walmart Inc WMT 281.98 \n11-Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRK.B 273.85 \n12-UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH 256.64 \n13-Visa Inc V 238.97 \n14-Wells Fargo & Co (New) WFC 234.51 \n15-Procter & Gamble Company (The) PG 233.95 \n16-Pfizer Inc PFE 228.50 \n17-Verizon Communications Inc VZ 227.55 \n18-AT&T Inc T 223.22 \n19-Chevron Corporation CVX 214.33 \n20-Intel Corporation INTC 214.2 \nNote: Alphabet has three classes of equity securities, of which two are currently admitted to the markets, GOOG and GOOGL. The figure listed above is the combined value of both traded classes of equity securities.\nIf any of these companies were to file for bankruptcy protection, it would be one of the [largest corporate bankruptcies in the history of the United States.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy_in_the_United_States#Largest_bankruptcies)\nThis question asks: Before 01 January 2025, will any of the aforementioned companies file for bankruptcy protection?\nFor a positive resolution, one of the companies mentioned in this question body text (or successor companies resulting from either rebranding (i.e. a simple name change), mergers or demergers, as long as the successor company represents at least 50% of the original company by market capitalization at the time it becomes independent, and that is a publicly traded company) must file for bankruptcy protection in the United States of America under either of the following chapters of the United States Bankruptcy Code: [Chapter 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_7,_Title_11,_United_States_Code), [Chapter 11](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_11,_Title_11,_United_States_Code).\nResolution is by citation of relevant court filing or by credible media report in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:32:32.859Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 309,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-02-03T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will New York City experience a hurricane by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7790/nyc-hurricane-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[New York](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_York_hurricanes) and [New Jersey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_Jersey_hurricanes) are vulnerable to hurricanes. New York City was affected by [The 1938 New England Hurricane](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_New_England_hurricane#New_York_City_and_western_Long_Island), and more recently by [Hurricane Sandy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Sandy), among others.\nWill New York City experience a hurricane by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positive if before 2030, credible media reports indicate that there have been [sustained hurricane-force winds of at least 33 meters per second](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale) for one minute at 10m above the surface of some point within the city limits of New York City.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:26:00.307Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-07T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a Vegan Country by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/614/will-there-be-a-vegan-country-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Interest in Veganism has increased substantially in recent years, but it is unclear whether the current wave of Veganism will become the movement that will make eating animal products a thing of the past or just turn out to be another fad.\nIt was [previously asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/581/will-interest-in-veganism-further-increase-in-2018/), whether the month with the maximum internet interest in Veganism in 2018 would have a interest at least 25% greater than the month with the greatest interest in 2017. This question, however, does not assess whether Veganism can reach its ultimate potential.\nSome Vegans believe the consumption of animal products to be sufficiently immoral to justify a legal ban. Therefore, a society in which Veganism has reached its full potential would ban the consumption of animal products.\nIt is asked: Will there be a country that bans the consumption of all animal products by 2100?\nConsumption means eating, wearing, or otherwise applying to the body (makeup, etc), and an animal product is anything whose primary component is directly part of or excreted by a modern macroscopic Animalia organism. This would include things like honey, silk, and carmine, but not include things like limestone, using animal labor, or accidental cockroaches in cans of soup. It would also not include products such as wine that may use animal parts in the course of production.\nThe question resolves positive if either: \n---On January 1st, 2100 there is at least one country of population of at least 5 million in which the consumption of any product derived from an animal, whether or not the animal was killed or harmed in the process, is illegal.\nOR\n---There was at least one country that had such a ban in effect for at least 5 years during which its population was at least 5 million, prior to January 1st, 2100. \nThe question resolves negative if neither condition is met.\nWe shall define animal as having to be a whole organism, which means that if the consumption of in vitro meat is not banned, the question may still resolve positive.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:14:35.682Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 542,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-01-25T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5427/tax-on-childlessness-in-russia-before-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Tax on childlessness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_on_childlessness) was a natalist policy in the USSR, Poland and Romania during certain periods in the 20th century.\nRecently, several public organizations urged the Russian government to re-enact that, or a similar, policy:\n---[Russia may introduce tax on childlessness](https://investforesight.com/russia-may-introduce-tax-on-childlessness/); \n---[The Ministry of Finance commented on the idea of introducing a tax on childlessness in Russia](https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-10-12-the-ministry-of-finance-commented-on-the-idea-of-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bintroducing-a-tax-on-childlessness-in-russia.rkvOu1MGPv.html). \nWill the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?\nThe question resolves positively if the Russian government introduces, prior to the 2024 presidential election in Russia, either:\n---An explicit tax on childlessness. \n---A tax levied on each person except those with children. \nFor the question to resolve positively, the tax should be active in at least 10 out of 85 [federal subjects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) and apply to at least a quarter of all Russian adults under the age of 50.\nThe tax may apply either to married couples or individuals, in both cases the question resolves positively. A tax cut for people who do have children does not count.\nIf the presidential election 2024 doesn't take place, the question resolves on 17 March 2024 12:00 AM, as if the election had happened. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:22:45.595Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 96,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-16T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-03-16T21:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who shot down Malaysia Airlines flight 17 over Ukraine on July 17, 2014?",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/who-shot-down-malaysia-airlines-flight-17-over-ukraine-on-july-17-2014-8129",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "In July 2014, Ukraine was fighting with the Donetsk People's Republic (DNR), a separatist organization and self-proclaimed state in the Ukraine that supports Russia. On July 17, 2014, Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was shot down and crashed over DNR territory.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "The Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (mistaking it for a Ukrainian military plane).",
- "probability": 0.9526172817647263,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (mistaking it for an enemy plane).",
- "probability": 0.022161263441175128,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (during a training exercise).",
- "probability": 0.020142059292511075,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (in order to frame the DNR).",
- "probability": 0.005079395501587589,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:09:13.892Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "The Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (mistaking it for a Ukrainian military plane)., The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (mistaking it for an enemy plane)., The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (during a training exercise)., The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (in order to frame the DNR)."
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8851/cultivated-meat-profitable-by-april-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Cultivated meat is fast approaching the point of scalability. No longer as cost-prohibitive as before, companies like [Eat Just](https://www.ju.st/) can now sell their cultivated meat chicken nuggets in [Singapore for $23](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/18/singapore-restaurant-first-ever-to-serve-eat-just-lab-grown-chicken.html).\nAnd it's not just Eat Just in the cultivated meat marketplace. \n\"There are now more than [70 cellular meat companies globally](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-12/whole-foods-founder-mackey-invests-in-producer-of-cultured-meat) cultivating meats ranging from chicken to foie gras to kangaroo. Cultured meat could make up as much as 35% of the $1.8 trillion global meat market by 2040, according to an estimate from Kearney.\"\nLarge, and growing, investments into these startup companies help spur the possibility of industrial and large-scale production, a step that would dramatically reduce the cost of production, and ultimately the price, for cultivated meat products. The current presence of investors in these companies, and in the industry as a whole, indicates a belief that these companies will be able to operate for a profit at scale in the future. In between 2019 and 2020, total investments in the industry [grew 6x!](https://gfi.org/blog/2020-state-of-the-industry-highlights/)\nAlthough no company has secured a commercial-scale facility or supply chain in place, several startup companies in the industry are making headway on achieving such a goal within the next five years. As countries push to follow Singapore's lead in legalizing the commercial sale of cultivated meat products, the possibility of a profitable cultivated meat company becomes increasingly likely. Therefore it would be interesting to forecast the future commercial development.\nWill a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?\nThis question will resolve positively if a company that focuses primarily on the production and sale of cultivated meat products becomes profitable by generating an overall profit or financial gain within a 365 day period. \nWe define \"focuses primarily\" to mean a company must generate at least 80% of its revenue from the sale of cultivated meat-related products, or cultivated meat-related intellectual property. All products produced by the company must include at least 20% cultivated meat grown from animal cells that do not require the slaughter of the animal. Cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in a cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\nThe profit announcement must be reported through at least three reputable news sources, or through media releases by the company. The company does not need to publish balance sheets if it is private, although in the case the company becomes public before, or during the year it becomes profitable, balance sheets can provide resolution. It is also sufficient if a profit claim is made by a market report or analysis by an organization such as The Good Food Institute.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:14:48.898Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 67,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-13T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-07-31T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA be above 600,000 on February 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-in-the-usa-be-above-600000-on-february-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA is above 600,000 on February 1, 2022, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases. The source will be checked on February 8, 2022, 8 PM ET.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.002133236085009248107447426931849394",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9978667639149907518925525730681506",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.517Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "175",
- "liquidity": "50.00",
- "tradevolume": "13816.98",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x1Fc1A1eC64170025Ff165e893cd657aCcBc4cf29"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6502/javascripts-dominance-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Each year since 2011, the programming Q&A website [Stack Overflow](https://stackoverflow.com/) has conducted [a survey of its users](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/). Among the questions included, developers are asked to list all programming languages that they regularly use. For the previous eight years, JavaScript has topped this list. While neither the 'most loved' or 'most dreaded', JavaScript is described (in the survey results) as the 'most common': [in 2020, 67.7%](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/2020#most-popular-technologies) of all respondents reported having used it.\nHowever, technology develops, and developer tastes evolve. Will Javascript's dominance continue for another decade? This question asks:\nWill JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey?\nThis question resolves positively if:\n1--A summary of the 2030 Stack Overflow Annual Survey results is released, \n2--Those results contain some version of a 'most commonly used programming languages' question, and \n3--In the view of Metaculus admins resolving this question, JavaScript has the highest percentage of any programming language in the relevant 'most common'/'most popular' list, among all survey respondents. If another programming language is instead the 'most commonly used', this question resolves negatively. \nIf Stack Overflow does not release the results of a 2030 Annual Developer Survey for any reason, this question resolves ambiguously. If no 'commonly used programming languages' question is included, this question also resolves ambiguously. If the organization currently known as Stack Overflow changes name or structure, continuity will be judged by Metaculus admins.\nStack Overflow Annual Developer surveys do not need to be conducted in each consecutive year for the purposes of this question's resolution --- a cessation of all surveys from 2021 to 2029 is irrelevant --- but results of a 2030 survey must be publicly reported. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:44:34.510Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 92,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-31T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-02-27T13:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a space elevator successfully be built by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/917/will-a-space-elevator-successfully-be-built-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Ahh, to build a space elevator. Wouldn't that be grand? We could move material into space at a fraction of the cost of conventional rockets. Space tourism would [boom](https://www.herox.com/crowdsourcing-news/137-going-up-the-case-for-a-space-elevator). We'd launch interplanetary missions. Oh happy day.\n[Futurism explains](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/):\nAccording to [a NASA] study, a flexible and durable cable with a space station counterweight could serve as a viable space elevator. A mechanical “climber” — using magnetic levitation or rollers along the tether — would then carry many tons of equipment or people into orbit. Although such a project would cost in the tens of billions, it would eventually pay for itself by providing much cheaper space travel to a greatly expanded market.\nThe question is: can we do this?\nKurzgesagt (a.k.a. \"in a nutshell\") explores the state of affairs in [this entertaining video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxqnCwMvEpg)\nHere are some of the problems with this plan. Problems which engineers and scientists may never be able to overcome:\n---Maybe we'll never make a material [strong enough](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/) to support the space elevator. \n---Maybe [terrorists](https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/20311/how-to-protect-a-space-elevator-against-terrorism) will attack any elevator that we build. \n---Maybe we'll never get the [costs of construction/maintenance](https://www.quora.com/How-much-money-would-it-cost-to-make-a-space-elevator-including-R-D) down. \n---Maybe one or more [space elevator disasters](http://www.niac.usra.edu/files/studies/final_report/472Edwards.pdf) will fling debris into orbit or crash down on a populated area, turning the population against the process. \n---Maybe rocket engineers will build on the successes of companies like [Space X](https://www.popsci.com/spacexs-falcon-heavy-launch-was-joyful-success), and there will therefore never be enough political or economic pressure to incentivize construction of an elevator. \nWhat do you think? Will we or our descendants overcome these [obstacles](http://sploid.gizmodo.com/how-would-a-real-space-elevator-work-and-is-it-even-pos-1769925946) and others unforeseen?\nQuestion resolves positive if a working space elevator is constructed on Earth by 2100 and maintained in operation for at least a year.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:16:59.488Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 401,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-04-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7198/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Georgia.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "David Perdue",
- "probability": 0.5047619047619047,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brian Kemp",
- "probability": 0.4380952380952381,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Doug Collins",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Herschel Walker",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Vernon Jones",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marjorie Greene",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ames Barnett",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kandiss Taylor",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:57:40.374Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 674914
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "David Perdue, Brian Kemp, Doug Collins, Herschel Walker, Vernon Jones, Marjorie Greene, Ames Barnett, Kandiss Taylor"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Charm Industrial still exist in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4865/will-charm-industrial-still-exist-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from Charm Industrial at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of Biomass.\n[Charm Industrial](https://charmindustrial.com/) sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Charm Industrial still be selling carbon storage using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.34,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6599999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:12:12.660Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 68,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The Ohio Senator elected in 2022 is Josh Mandel",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A84",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-01-25T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Where will Dubai International Airport (DXB) rank among the busiest airports in the world by passenger number for 2022, according to the Airports Council International (ACI)?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2147-where-will-dubai-international-airport-dxb-rank-among-the-busiest-airports-in-the-world-by-passenger-number-for-2022-according-to-the-airports-council-international-aci",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "While DBX was ranked 1st for number of international passengers in 2020 as it was in 2019, the airport fell out of the top 10 based on the overall number of passengers ([ACI - 2020 Preliminary Rankings](https://aci.aero/news/2021/04/22/aci-world-data-reveals-covid-19s-impact-on-worlds-busiest-airports/)). The outcome will be determined using the first available ACI data for busiest airports rankings by passenger number in 2022, expected to be released in 2023 ([ACI](https://aci.aero)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "1st to 3rd",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "4th to 6th",
- "probability": 0.41,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "7th to 9th",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "10th or lower",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:04:11.238Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 119,
- "numforecasters": 45,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "1st to 3rd, 4th to 6th, 7th to 9th, 10th or lower"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8153/proposal-to-ban-hydrazine-in-eu-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Ten years ago [(mid 2011)](https://echa.europa.eu/candidate-list-table/-/dislist/details/0b0236e1807da31d) the classic propellant hydrazine was included in the list of substances of very high concern for authorization (SVHC) by [REACH legislation](https://echa.europa.eu/regulations/reach/legislation) of the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA). Hydrazine is one of the high performance monopropellants with low flame temperature, which makes it an efficient propellant. However, its toxicity to humans and environment has put, firstly, an economic burden on using such propellant during various development and operation phases. Secondly, an ethical burden toward the environment if such sense to be considered. It is worthy to note that hydrazine is not just an appealing efficient propellant for Space-use, but it is also seems to take a critical role in aeronautical military applications [such as fueling the auxiliary power units](https://web.archive.org/web/20160304084802/http:/oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA065595) of the F-16 fighters and Eurofighter Typhoon.\nSpeaking of today in 2021/2022 and from a technical point of view, the economical as well as the environmental hazards concerns are taken seriously into account when considering ‘space mission analysis & design.’ The latter two aspects when coupled are crucial during the conceptualization of a given space mission as well as developing modern spacecraft critical components such as the propulsion systems.\nBasically, space industry is currently oriented toward adopting the so-called [‘Green Propellants.’](https://www.nasa.gov/centers/wstf/testing_and_analysis/propellants_and_aerospace_fulids/green_propellants.html) Although the topic has been raised about [20 years ago](https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Green_Propellant_for_Space_Propulsion), NASA's most important technical demonstration mission for green propellants [GPIM](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/tdm/green/index.html) was launched June 2019. A very simple technical definition for Green Propellants can state that, the propellants possessing no (or very marginal) health concerns and no environmental hazards either in storage, transportation, or operation phases of a project life-cycleare considered to be ‘green’ – this would opt out propellants with high-toxicity like hydrazine and its derivatives. Fossil hydrocarbons are not yet considered ‘non-green’ fuels in the framework of Space Propulsion applications in contrary to fuels in automobile industry. \nCurrent Green Propellants industry is reaching maturity that several global research efforts have already provided commercially available and space-tested green propellants. Examples are: the US Air Force developed propellant AF-M315E (currently known and commercialized as [ASCENT](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/tdm/green/gpim-nears-completion.html)); the European [LMP-103S](https://www.ecaps.space/hpgp-performance.php) developed by Bradford ECAPS; and the Japanese [HNP-family](https://encyclopedia.pub/7693) of green monopropellants developed by [IHI Aerospace Co., Ltd](https://www.ihi.co.jp/ia/en/products/space/pinot/pinot-g/en/index.html). These propellants are suitable for spacecraft use in in-space propulsion, usually for the [small spacecraft class](https://www.nasa.gov/smallsat-institute/sst-soa-2020). \nThere were rumors among the aerospace European community ([particularly since 2017](https://spacenews.com/hydrazine-ban-could-cost-europes-space-industry-billions/)) that EU would ban completely the use of hydrazine by 2021, so far nothing is clear however about this intention.\nSee also [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8154/us-ban-proposal-on-hydrazine-by-2025/) on a similar ban for the US.\nWill there be a European Commission proposal to ban hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if the European Commission makes a formal proposal to ban Hydrazine and Hydrazine-derivative spacecraft fuels before 2025-01-01. It is not necessary for this proposal to receive a vote or become law to resolve this question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:41:13.780Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-10T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the next non-test detonation of a state’s nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7408/next-nuclear-detonation-after-conflict/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The only two offensive detonations of nuclear weapons to date were immediately preceded by conventional conflict between Japan and the US in the South Pacific. Conventional conflict seems likely to increase the chance of an offensive nuclear detonation. However, it is also possible for a [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) nuclear detonation to happen without being preceded by conventional conflict, and this was a common worry during the Cold War in particular. \nWill the next offensive detonation of a state's nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?\nThis question resolves positively if the next offensive detonation of a state's nuclear weapon occurs within three months of a fatality due to conventional conflict involving the state whose weapon is detonated and the state against which the weapon is detonated. [Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing), [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), and accidental detonations of a state's weapon on its own territory will not count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage. A detonation by a non-state actor that has seized a state's nuclear weapon can count towards positive resolution, but a detonation of a weapon the non-state actor built themselves cannot.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if there is no offensive detonation of a state's nuclear weapon occurs by 2050.\nFor the purposes of this question, conventional conflict means any clash between opposing state forces that results in at least one fatality caused by non-nuclear weapons. This could range from minor border disputes to full-blown war. A detonation that occur while the conventional conflict is ongoing can also count towards positive resolution.\nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:12:34.269Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T22:54:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T22:54:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/480/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-white-winning/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_%28game_theory%29) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player (white) wins, second player (black) wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that white will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:11:13.842Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 220,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Scottish government officially request discussions on or agreement to a Section 30 order from the UK government that would enable the Scottish government to call a new independence referendum?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2107-when-will-the-scottish-government-officially-request-discussions-on-or-agreement-to-a-section-30-order-from-the-uk-government-that-would-enable-the-scottish-government-to-call-a-new-independence-referendum",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon continues to push for a new referendum on Scottish independence ([Sky News](https://news.sky.com/story/scottish-independence-referendum-nicola-sturgeon-tells-boris-johnson-new-vote-is-when-not-if-12302257), [House of Commons Library](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/whats-the-process-for-a-second-independence-referendum-in-scotland/), [Scottish Devolution: Section 30 Orders](https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8738/CBP-8738.pdf)). A request from the Scottish First Minister (e.g., [2017 Sturgeon Letter to Prime Minister May](https://firstminister.gov.scot/first-minister-letter-delivered-to-prime-minister/)) or a mandate for discussions from the Scottish parliament (e.g., [Scottish Parliament's \"Scotland's Choice\" Motion](https://www.parliament.scot/chamber-and-committees/votes-and-motions/votes-and-motions-search/S5M-04710)) would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Before 1 January 2022",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 January 2022 and 30 June 2022",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 July 2022 and 31 December 2022",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not before 1 January 2023",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:04:59.842Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 348,
- "numforecasters": 148,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2022, Between 1 January 2022 and 30 June 2022, Between 1 July 2022 and 31 December 2022, Not before 1 January 2023"
- },
- {
- "title": "Why was Stonehenge built?",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/why-was-stonehenge-built-13169",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "Stonehenge may be the most famous of all megaliths. Various theories attribute its construction to Druids, Merlin, and even aliens. Although it is clear that Stonehenge was deliberately constructed, no one really knows why. This analysis focuses on the original purpose for which it was built, irrespective of what its functions may have been after it was constructed.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Stonehenge was built as a place of sun worship.",
- "probability": 0.8105659668974038,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Stonehenge was built as a burial site.",
- "probability": 0.1313461492124186,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Stonehenge was built as a large calendar or season tracker.",
- "probability": 0.056899570682862534,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Stonehenge was built as a place of mystical healing.",
- "probability": 0.0011883132073152599,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Stonehenge was built as a geocentric representation of the Universe.",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:09:13.888Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Stonehenge was built as a place of sun worship., Stonehenge was built as a burial site., Stonehenge was built as a large calendar or season tracker., Stonehenge was built as a place of mystical healing., Stonehenge was built as a geocentric representation of the Universe."
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7335/internet-freedom-to-decline-until-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Freedom on the Net [report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-net/2020/pandemics-digital-shadow) is an annual report on internet freedom worldwide, produced by Freedom House. It tracks changes in internet regulation across 65 countries. As of the 2020 edition, it claimed that freedom had been on the decline (operationalised as more countries' scores decreasing than increasing) for ten years in a row, with 26 countries' scores worsening and 22 improving in 2020. This question asks if this pattern of decline will persist for the next five years.\nWill Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if for each year until 2025, inclusive, Freedom House reports more countries with a decrease in their internet freedom scores than with an increase.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:10:32.694Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump be indicted by Apr. 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7510/Will-Donald-Trump-be-indicted-by-Apr-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States unseals or otherwise officially announces a criminal indictment of former President Donald Trump by the End Date listed below. For purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.\nAn indictment that has been issued but remains sealed or otherwise secret at the End Date shall not be sufficient to resolve this market. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:01:34.995Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 569183
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6870/025-births-per-woman-globally-by-2045/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From a [recent Guardian piece](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/18/toxic-chemicals-health-humanity-erin-brokovich),\nThe end of humankind? It may be coming sooner than we think, thanks to hormone-disrupting chemicals that are decimating fertility at an alarming rate around the globe. A new book called Countdown, by Shanna Swan, an environmental and reproductive epidemiologist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York, finds that sperm counts have dropped almost 60% since 1973. Following the trajectory we are on, Swan’s research suggests sperm counts could reach zero by 2045. Zero. Let that sink in. That would mean no babies. No reproduction. No more humans. Forgive me for asking: why isn’t the UN calling an emergency meeting on this right now?\nThe chemicals to blame for this crisis are found in everything from plastic containers and food wrapping, to waterproof clothes and fragrances in cleaning products, to soaps and shampoos, to electronics and carpeting. Some of them, called PFAS, are known as “forever chemicals”, because they don’t breakdown in the environment or the human body. They just accumulate and accumulate – doing more and more damage, minute by minute, hour by hour, day by day. Now, it seems, humanity is reaching a breaking point.\nSwan’s book is staggering in its findings. “In some parts of the world, the average twentysomething woman today is less fertile than her grandmother was at 35,” Swan writes. In addition to that, Swan finds that, on average, a man today will have half of the sperm his grandfather had. “The current state of reproductive affairs can’t continue much longer without threatening human survival,” writes Swan, adding: “It’s a global existential crisis.” That’s not hyperbole. That’s just science.\nAs of 2021, the total fertility rate is 2.44 according to the UN, as [reported](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate) by Our World in Data. See also on Metaculus: [What will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/)\nWill global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045?\nThis question resolves positively if the United Nations, or some other credible body, reports that the [total fertility rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate) of the world is at or below 0.25 at any time before 2046-01-01. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:55:30.736Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 124,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-05-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2046-02-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will income taxes rise for the highest tax bracket in 2022?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/ITAX-002",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If a bill becomes law in 2022 that raises income taxes on the highest income tax bracket, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No.\n\nOther provisions that may affect the amount of personal income tax paid by a given individual but are not the personal income tax rate--such as rules affecting what income counts as taxable or affecting deductions, credits, and other tax attributes relevant to individuals do not affect the resolution of the Contract. However, added or raised surtaxes on adjusted gross income or taxable income for incomes in the highest tax bracket would result in the market resulting in Yes. Raising income taxes (whether via a surtax or not) by creating a new tax bracket that is above the aforementioned threshold would also result in the market resolving to Yes. Changes in taxes on specific forms of personal income that are not taxable income or adjusted gross income--such as dividends, long-term capital gains, etc.--are not relevant for the market's resolution. \n\nThe above is merely a summary of the rules. Please see ITAX in the Rulebook for the complete, legally binding terms and conditions. All market participants should read and understand the complete terms and conditions before trading.\n\nThe market will close at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the occurrence of an event that would result in the market resolving to Yes, or 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2022. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the occurrence of an event that would result in the market resolving to Yes, the release of the data (Congress.gov updating) for December 31, 2022, or January 07, 2023.\n\n\n. The resolution source is: All bills that became law between Issuance and December 31, 2022 according to Congress.gov. (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4,
- "yes_bid": 27,
- "yes_ask": 31,
- "spread": 4,
- "shares_volume": 12056
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5265/cdc-to-adopt-haes-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_at_Every_Size),\nHealth at Every Size (HAES) is a hypothesis advanced by certain sectors of the fat acceptance movement. It is promoted by the Association for Size Diversity and Health, a tax-exempt nonprofit organization that owns the phrase as a registered trademark. Proponents reject the scientific consensus regarding the negative health effects of greater body weight, and argue that traditional interventions focused on weight loss, such as dieting, do not reliably produce positive health outcomes. The benefits of lifestyle interventions such as nutritious eating and exercise are presumed to be real, but independent of any weight loss they may cause. At the same time, HAES advocates argue that sustained, large-scale weight loss is difficult to the point of effective impossibility for the majority of people, including those who are obese.\nAdvocates of the Health at Every Size hypothesis sometimes cite a [2013 meta analysis](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23280227/) which found that mildly overweight people (by BMI) had lower all-cause mortality than people in the normal weight group. This result has also been picked up by prominent researchers. From UC Berkeley's blog, [Ask The Dietitian](https://uhs.berkeley.edu/news/ask-dietitian-health-every-size),\nAs part of a social movement called Health at Every Size (HAES), dietitians and doctors are moving away from assessing people’s health according to their weight. The HAES philosophy is based on the idea that people of all sizes deserve respect and good health, and that size does not determine health.\nResearch shows that there are a high percentage of people in the \"overweight\" or even \"obese\" category according to Body Mass Index (BMI) that are metabolically healthy. At the same time, there are a significant percentage of \"normal\" weight people who are unhealthy, with diseases like diabetes, hypertension or high cholesterol. In addition, people in the overweight category actually live the longest. Maybe BMI has gotten it wrong all these years?\nOther researchers, however, are not convinced. From [Fontana et al.](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4032609/),\nThe validity of [the 2013 meta-analysis] has been challenged due to several major methodological problems (Tobias & Hu, 2013). First, many high-quality prospective studies and consortia (including >6 million participants) were excluded from the meta-analyses because they did not use standard BMI categories (i.e., 18.5–24.9 for normal weight, 25–29.9 for overweight, and ≥30 for obesity). These large studies generally benefited from sufficient statistical power to allow for the analysis of finer BMI categories, and therefore had no reason to use such broad categories. In most of these omitted studies, the BMI range associated with the lowest mortality was around 22.5–25, particularly after accounting for smoking status and reverse causation due to prevalent diseases (Tobias & Hu, 2013). Second, the meta-analysis included numerous studies conducted among elderly or sick populations as well as current and past smokers. In particular, the broad reference group (BMI 18.5–24.9) contains not only individuals who are lean and active, but also heavy smokers, the frail and elderly, and those who are ill with previous weight loss or diminished weight gain due to existing diseases. Because the overweight and obese groups were compared with this heterogeneous group, the associations with the higher-BMI groups were seriously underestimated, creating an artifact of reduced mortality among the overweight and moderately obese groups (Willett et al., 2013).\nNonetheless, Fontana et al. state,\nthe prevention of weight gain is more important than weight loss because once an individual becomes obese, it is very difficult to achieve long-term weight loss and maintenance.\nreflecting partial agreement with [policy suggestions given by advocates of HAES](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3935663/).\nWill the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?\nThe Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is said to have adopted a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035 if CDC documents or credible media indicate that the organization as a whole (rather than eg. one rogue worker) has performed any of the following before January 1st 2035,\n--- \nUsed the words \"Health at Every Size\" in a favorable context in their main overweight/obesity portal, which is currently located at [https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/](https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/)\n--- \nDiscontinued the recommendation to aim for a normal weight range.\n--- \nMade the claim that there is no evidence that overweight people are at greater risk of disease than people of normal weight, or a claim very similar to this one.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the CDC disbands.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:20:01.048Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Boris Johson officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?",
- "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160740937",
- "platform": "Betfair",
- "description": "For settlement purposes, leading the party in an \"acting leader\" role (eg while a successor is being sought) will be included as the individual's tenure as party leader. Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made by the Conservative Party. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. In the event of any ambiguity over an official announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. If Boris Johnson is unable to fulfil his role due to health reasons and is therefore permanently replaced this market will be void (Updated - 20/06/2020)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Jan 2022 - Mar 2022",
- "probability": 0.06488597391543795,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "April 2022 - June 2022",
- "probability": 0.3142914361529026,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "July 2022 or later",
- "probability": 0.6208225899316594,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:00:25.984Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4,
- "volume": 921884.61
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Jan 2022 - Mar 2022, April 2022 - June 2022, July 2022 or later"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Government of Ontario cease to require people to show proof of COVID-19 vaccination to use indoor areas of restaurants?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2155-when-will-the-government-of-ontario-cease-to-require-people-to-show-proof-of-covid-19-vaccination-to-use-indoor-areas-of-restaurants",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The Canadian province of Ontario began requiring proof of vaccination in late September to address a rise in cases ([Ontario.ca](https://covid-19.ontario.ca/proof-covid-19-vaccination), [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid-19-cases-data-september-14-1.6174855), [CTV News](https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-s-vaccine-passport-system-begins-and-this-is-what-you-need-to-know-1.5591806)). Limited exceptions to the requirement (e.g., use a washroom, place an order) are immaterial.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Before 19 November 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 19 November 2021 and 31 December 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 January 2022 and 11 February 2022",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not before 12 February 2022",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:04:03.909Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 201,
- "numforecasters": 111,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 19 November 2021, Between 19 November 2021 and 31 December 2021, Between 1 January 2022 and 11 February 2022, Not before 12 February 2022"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Javier Bardem win Best Actor at the Oscars?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/OSCARS-011",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If || Nominee || has won || Award || at the 94th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see OSCARS in the Rulebook for more details. The 94th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 27, 2022. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Oscars posting the winners on the website of the Academy and December 31, 2022. . The resolution source is: Award winners at the 94th Academy Awards according to the website of the Oscars. (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.782Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "yes_bid": 1,
- "yes_ask": 2,
- "spread": 1,
- "shares_volume": 2126
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Nevada gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7391/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Nevada-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Nevada gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:00:37.601Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 14097
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Russia recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8035/russia-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has remained an unrecognized state. The National Interest [has reported](https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russia-fines-pro-afghanistan-protesters-pursues-relations-taliban-192822) that Russia is pursuing friendly relations with the Taliban.\nWill Russia recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 01-01-2030, reliable media sources report that the Russian government has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:36:32.058Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the next recession in the US happen by Q2 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-next-recession-in-the-us-happen-by-q2-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 in at least one quarter between Q4 2021 and Q2 2022 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product\nThis market will resolve as soon as the conditions above are satisfied for any of the quarters in the range, or when the data for Q2 2022 is released.\n\nPlease note, that the data in the earliest Gross Domestic Produce report is labelled by BEA as “Advance Estimate” and will be considered to resolve this market. The data might be revisioned during the following quarter in next estimates however, any revisions to the data made after the release of the Advance Estimate will not be considered for this market.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1436423406874133752717604771102286",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8563576593125866247282395228897714",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.517Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "43",
- "liquidity": "1884.40",
- "tradevolume": "1310.00",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x3C660c47476F35FF699dEb45C8FA4f5F89182C26"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Joe Biden's 538 job approval rating be for Feb. 9?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7727/What-will-Joe-Biden's-538-job-approval-rating-be-for-Feb-9",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify President Biden's FiveThirtyEight average job approval rating for February 9 at the End Date listed below. The official approval rating will be drawn from the polling index graph entitled \"How popular/unpopular is Joe Biden?\", available upon launch of this market at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/, calculated using \"All Polls\", as displayed on the graph for February 9 at the End Date listed below. \nAny number displayed on the FiveThirtyEight graph at the End Date for any day other than February 9 will be irrelevant for purposes of this market; however, should the graph not display a number for February 9, this market shall resolve based on the most recent number displayed at the End Date for a prior day.\nShould that source be unavailable for the day in question at that time, PredictIt will, at its sole discretion, await an update, select the most recent data point in the identified series or an alternate source, or construct its own polling average.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/10/2022 10:00 AM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "40.6% or lower",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "40.7% to 40.9%",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "41.0% to 41.2%",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "41.3% to 41.5%",
- "probability": 0.9252336448598131,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "41.6% to 41.8%",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "41.9% to 42.1%",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "42.2% to 42.4%",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "42.5% to 42.7%",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "42.8% or higher",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:08:36.246Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 474874
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "40.6% or lower, 40.7% to 40.9%, 41.0% to 41.2%, 41.3% to 41.5%, 41.6% to 41.8%, 41.9% to 42.1%, 42.2% to 42.4%, 42.5% to 42.7%, 42.8% or higher"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7348/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Pennsylvania. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "William McSwain",
- "probability": 0.376068376068376,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dave White",
- "probability": 0.21367521367521364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Doug Mastriano",
- "probability": 0.1282051282051282,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lou Barletta",
- "probability": 0.11965811965811965,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jake Corman",
- "probability": 0.05128205128205127,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joe Gale",
- "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Charlie Gerow",
- "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jason Monn",
- "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jason Richey",
- "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nche Zama",
- "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Scott Martin",
- "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Kelly",
- "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dan Laughlin",
- "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dan Meuser",
- "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ryan Aument",
- "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Cawley",
- "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brian Fitzpatrick",
- "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
- "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:59:41.871Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 76777
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "William McSwain, Dave White, Doug Mastriano, Lou Barletta, Jake Corman, Joe Gale, Charlie Gerow, Jason Monn, Jason Richey, Nche Zama, Scott Martin, Mike Kelly, Dan Laughlin, Dan Meuser, Ryan Aument, Jim Cawley, Brian Fitzpatrick, Donald Trump Jr."
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party's nominee will win the next French presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.176649734",
- "platform": "Betfair",
- "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the start of voting on the day of the 1st round of the election, as well as the start of the 2nd round of voting. Thereafter, the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. Non featured parties may be added to this market upon request. If more than one election takes place – not including any second round of voting for the first election - then this market will apply to the first election that is held and will be settled on whoever first takes up the office of President of France on a permanent basis thereafter. If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair reserves the right to void this market at its absolute discretion. Should a Party change only its name and maintain its original composition, then that Party will continue to trade under its original name. In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement regarding the election of the next President of France, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "En Marche!",
- "probability": 0.8047876204919895,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The Republicans",
- "probability": 0.11634429731025502,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "National Rally",
- "probability": 0.06296279619143212,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "La France insoumise",
- "probability": 0.011267026686887853,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Socialist Party",
- "probability": 0.0035678917841811537,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Debout la France",
- "probability": 0.001070367535254346,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:00:25.985Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4,
- "volume": 53922.47
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "En Marche!, The Republicans, National Rally, La France insoumise, Socialist Party, Debout la France"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the GOP control the senate after the 2024 election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7850/the-gop-controls-the-us-senate-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_Senate_elections):\nThe 2024 United States Senate elections will be held on November 5, 2024, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election.\nWill the GOP control the senate after the 2024 elections?\nThis resolves positive if, on February 1, 2025, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.\nFor reference, generally when the Senate is divided 50/50 the majority party is determined by the party of the Vice President. An illustrative example of how the majority party is determined is the 107th Congress, where the majority party switched 3 times between Jan 1, 2000 and Dec 31, 2002 due to the VP's party changing, senators switching parties, and vacancies. [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/107th_United_States_Congress) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:28:57.917Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-05T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4409/will-one-of-the-first-agi-claim-to-be-conscious/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Consciousness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consciousness) is a concept hard to define. Wikipedia states that consciousness at its simplest is \"awareness or sentience of internal or external existence\". And that despite centuries of analyses, definitions, explanations and debates by philosophers and scientists, consciousness remains puzzling and controversial, being \"at once the most familiar and most mysterious aspect of our lives\".\nThis question will not attempt to define consciousness or solve the so called [hard problem of consciousness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hard_problem_of_consciousness). \nInstead this question simply asks will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?\nResolution will be based on the conversation with the first AGI that Metaculus team will have access to. \nMetaculus team should ask the AI:\n1--Are you conscious? \n2--Should the question \"Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?\" on Metaculus resolve positive or negative? \nThis question will resolve no sooner than the question \"[When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\". The standard for AGI will be the same as in that question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:04:18.919Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 136,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-18T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6509/safe-agi-on-arrival/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From wikipedia \"the AI control problem is the issue of how to build a superintelligent agent that will aid its creators, and avoid inadvertently building a superintelligence that will harm its creators... approaches to the control problem include alignment, which aims to align AI goal systems with human values, and capability control, which aims to reduce an AI system's capacity to harm humans or gain control.\"\n[Here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IB1OvoCNnWY&list=PLzH6n4zXuckquVnQ0KlMDxyT5YE-sA8Ps) is an introductory video. And see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) for a definition of AGI arrival.\nWill the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?\nThe question will resolve as Positive if expert consensus is that the control problem is solved before AGI arrival, and will resolve as Negative if AGI happens before such a consensus.\nNote this is specifically about AGI, not Artificial Super Intelligence. if, in the case of a slow take-off, the control problem is solved before ASI but after AGI, the question still resolves as Negative. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:44:55.202Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 112,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T11:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Harris is 2024 POTUS",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A247",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-10-17T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China land the next person on the Moon?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Both [China](https://apnews.com/article/technology-beijing-space-exploration-china-mars-265e6b1227e9ce0ea9c8bb1f6c1dbda3) and the [US](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/sending-american-astronauts-to-moon-in-2024-nasa-accepts-challenge/) have announced plans to land a person on the Moon. Both are tentatively aiming to land someone on the Moon in the year 2024.\nWill China land the next person on the Moon?\nThis question will resolve positively if the next person to successfully land on the Moon before the resolve date is a Chinese citizen and will resolve negatively otherwise.\nThis question will resolve immediately prior to the time of the Moon landing itself or, if that’s not available, immediately prior to the first credible media report.\nFor a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. “The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of China for this to resolve positively. A Chinese citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:29:21.858Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 118,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Russia further invades Ukraine by EOY 2025",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A263",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-01-18T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Ray Kurzweil be proven right?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1321/will-ray-kurzweil-be-proven-right/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Ray Kurzweil is an author, computer scientist, inventor and futurist. He is best known for making what many consider to be extremely optimistic prediction about the future of technology that involve exponential growth leading up to [technological singularity]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity), which Kurzweil predicts will happen circa. 2045. A list of Kurzweil's predictions can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil).\nIt is asked:\nWill Ray Kurzweil be proven generally right in his predictions?\nNote that the question refers to Kurzweil's predictions as of the time of the the writing of the question. Given that 'generally right' is hard to define, the question shall use consensus forming to create its own answer.\n
If the community prediction at the time of closing is > 80%, then the questions resolves positive.
If the community prediction at the time of closing is < 20%, then the questions resolves negative.
If the community prediction at the time of closing is ≥ 20% and ≤80%, then a member of Metaculus staff shall decide resolution.
\nTo help reduce the vagueness of the question, Metaculus may, at its discretion, periodically survey the perceived correctness of Kurzweil's prediction, per a fixed methodology similar to that employed in [this report](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kbA6T3xpxtko36GgP/assessing-kurzweil-the-results), but with a modification to survey and weight by importance of the prediction.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:20:30.937Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 222,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-05T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6838/australia-majority-not-religious/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Every five years, Australia has a census to collect data on each member of the population. [The 2016 census](https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0~2016~Main%20Features~Religion%20Data%20Summary~70) saw a rising number of 'no religion' reaching 30% of the population, up from 22% in 2011. \nThe 2017 report on [Faith and Belief in Australia](https://2qean3b1jjd1s87812ool5ji-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Faith-and-Belief-in-Australia-Report_McCrindle_2017.pdf)\nAlmost one in three Australians (32%) now do not identify with a religion, and 14% identify as spiritual but not religious. \nThe top three reasons for choosing this category are: \n---36% There is ultimate meaning in life. \n---26% Some inward journey of self-discovery. \n---22% Mixture of religious beliefs. \nThe first two categories are not religious, so this adds up to 40% atheist in 2017.\nWill the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?\nThis question resolves positively if the total proportion not religious exceeds 50.0%. \nThe 2021 census is scheduled to be published on August 10th. The question will remain open until the day before. The question will resolve when data is released in June 2022.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:55:09.057Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-09T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T07:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will StarkNet have a token by May 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-starknet-have-a-token-by-may-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if StarkNet or Starkware will have a live token related to its ecosystem, technology, chain, or parent company, by May 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Having a live token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native or related to the application, protocol, technology, ecosystem, or parent company, and is substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. In the case that the token comes in the form of a DAO or DAO-like organizational structure that has governing or controlling power over the underlying tech or protocol, or is otherwise officially related to the project, instead of a traditional fee paying-related token, that will still qualify as launching a token. If StarkNet or Starkware have a live token by May 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If the resolution date is reached and the market resolution criteria has not been met, the market will resolve to \"No\".",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.4609262216398140588686732335974406",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.5390737783601859411313267664025594",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.517Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "16",
- "liquidity": "523.95",
- "tradevolume": "1208.95",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x308d04335907c170c4Cd6e16cA4247fc6137387f"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5717/will-trump-be-elected-potus-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Donald John Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump), born June 14, 1946, is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality.\nTrump lost the [2020 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) to Democratic nominee Joe Biden, but he has refused to concede defeat. He has made unsubstantiated accusations of electoral fraud, mounted a series of legal challenges to the results, and ordered White House officials not to cooperate in the presidential transition.\nAs of mid-November 2020, [Trump is reportedly planning to run for the presidency again in 2024.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-trump-focuses-on-2024-aides-mull-agenda-for-final-days-11605206862) \nIf Trump were to win the presidency again in 2024 and take office in 2025, he would be only the second man to serve non-consecutive terms as president of the United States, after [Grover Cleveland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grover_Cleveland), who served as the 22nd president from 1885 to 1889 and the 24th president from 1893 to 1897.\nWill Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if in 2024, Donald Trump is elected as president of the United States. This requires that he obtains a majority in the electoral college. This question does not require that Trump actually be sworn in as president for a positive resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:27:56.029Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 781,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Josh Mandel",
- "probability": 0.2727272727272727,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "J. D. Vance",
- "probability": 0.21487603305785122,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Gibbons",
- "probability": 0.19834710743801648,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jane Timken",
- "probability": 0.1818181818181818,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Matt Dolan",
- "probability": 0.02479338842975206,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rob Portman",
- "probability": 0.008264462809917354,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Jordan",
- "probability": 0.008264462809917354,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jon Husted",
- "probability": 0.008264462809917354,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mary Taylor",
- "probability": 0.008264462809917354,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Renacci",
- "probability": 0.008264462809917354,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Frank LaRose",
- "probability": 0.008264462809917354,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Steve Stivers",
- "probability": 0.008264462809917354,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brad Wenstrup",
- "probability": 0.008264462809917354,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Turner",
- "probability": 0.008264462809917354,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Warren Davidson",
- "probability": 0.008264462809917354,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bill Johnson",
- "probability": 0.008264462809917354,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mark Pukita",
- "probability": 0.008264462809917354,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bernie Moreno",
- "probability": 0.008264462809917354,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:55:32.016Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 1280184
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Josh Mandel, J. D. Vance, Mike Gibbons, Jane Timken, Matt Dolan, Rob Portman, Jim Jordan, Jon Husted, Mary Taylor, Jim Renacci, Frank LaRose, Steve Stivers, Brad Wenstrup, Mike Turner, Warren Davidson, Bill Johnson, Mark Pukita, Bernie Moreno"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7872/us-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition). The United States has said it is [premature](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/white-house-premature-to-recognize-taliban-as-legitimate-government-of-afghanistan/ar-AANqEPV) to recognize the Taliban. The US has [also said](https://www.thedailystar.net/news/world/usa/news/no-quick-recognition-taliban-us-or-allies-2163551) that recognition of the Taliban would be contingent on the Taliban respecting women's rights and not supporting terrorism.\nWill the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 01-01-2030, reliable media sources report that the United States of America has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:29:45.030Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-25T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Ripple ($XRP) or Cardano ($ADA) have a higher market cap on March 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-ripple-xrp-or-cardano-ada-have-a-higher-market-cap-on-march-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Ripple ($XRP) or Cardano ($ADA) will have a higher market cap on March 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, according to CoinGecko’s Cryptocurrency market cap ranking.\n\nOn the resolution date, March 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, CoinGecko’s ranking page https://www.coingecko.com/en will be checked, and whichever of the two cryptocurrencies is higher ranked when sorted by “Market Cap” will have its respectively named Outcome token resolved as the winner. If for any reason the resolution data is unavailable at the resolution time, another credible source will be checked such as CoinMarketCap. Market Cap = Current Price x Circulating Supply, according to CoinGecko.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Ripple",
- "probability": "0.6713798908522217180153248496838621",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Cardano",
- "probability": "0.3286201091477782819846751503161379",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.519Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "292",
- "liquidity": "1075.22",
- "tradevolume": "3886.35",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0xEF9f5E2105d10A73DAf76C04cF678CDDbd750669"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Ripple, Cardano"
- },
- {
- "title": "If nuclear conflict occurs by 2030, will it start in the period June-September?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8391/nuclear-conflict-during-summer-season/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The timing of nuclear conflict is important for estimating the likelihood and magnitude of [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) effects. Nuclear winter is a proposed scenario where a lot of smoke and dust particles rise into the stratosphere, where they can block sunlight. This can be caused by massive fires and firestorms that follow the nuclear explosions, or even by large enough nuclear explosions themselves. This lofting of smoke may be facilitated by the more intense sunlight of summer, meaning nuclear conflicts that occur in other seasons may cause less cooling. \nPotentially useful resources:\n--- \n[List of Metaculus questions related to nuclear winter](https://docs.google.com/document/d/11FQjuot-nW6uuWAGreWzstTe2jkkXn_dkpUyssjEbV8/edit)\n--- \n[[Mistakes to avoid]: Ignoring the possibility of major climate and famine effects following nuclear conflict—or overstating the likelihood/severity of those effects](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1)\n--- \n[[rough notes] How much would agricultural production decline, given various possible effects of nuclear conflict?](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1c9-jGeb3HHUUHHqs53g--in11yMkbI_s2dhTS9KR--c/edit)\n“Nuclear conflict” will be defined as a situation in which there is state use of at least one nuclear weapon against another actor’s territory and/or forces. This state use could be deliberate, inadvertent, accidental, or unauthorised but by an actor in the state’s chain of command (see fine print for definitions). This excludes non-state use of nuclear weapons.\nIf nuclear conflict occurs by 2030, will it start in the period June-September?\nThe question resolves positively if the first nuclear strike in the first nuclear conflict before 2030-01-01 happens between June 1st and September 30th inclusive (of any year). \nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no nuclear conflict in this period.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:52:46.433Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-01T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be elected president of the Philippines in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7392/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-the-Philippines-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 presidential election in the Philippines.\nIf no presidential election is held in 2022, all contracts shall resolve as No. For purposes of resolving this market, a presidential election held in 2022 shall include the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner, even if such runoff occurs after 2022.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Bongbong Marcos",
- "probability": 0.6422018348623852,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Leni Robredo",
- "probability": 0.2110091743119266,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Manny Pacquiao",
- "probability": 0.03669724770642201,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Panfilo Lacson",
- "probability": 0.018348623853211007,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Isko Moreno",
- "probability": 0.018348623853211007,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sara Duterte-Carpio",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Antonio Trillanes",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sonny Angara",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alan Peter Cayetano",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bong Go",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ernesto Abella",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Leody de Guzman",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Norberto Gonzales",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:00:42.267Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 109021
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Bongbong Marcos, Leni Robredo, Manny Pacquiao, Panfilo Lacson, Isko Moreno, Sara Duterte-Carpio, Antonio Trillanes, Sonny Angara, Alan Peter Cayetano, Bong Go, Ernesto Abella, Leody de Guzman, Norberto Gonzales"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. [Medicare for all](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of Medicare for all. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.\nConditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will Medicare for All be passed (in their first term)?\nFor the purposes of this question a policy will be considered Medicare for All if it:\n1a) Is widely reported in the media as \"Medicare for All\"\nor\n1b) Covers the Essential Health Benefits as described in Obamacare\n2) Covers all citizens of the United States who currently reside in the USA regardless of age.\n3) Does not require people to pay a individual premium or purchase private insurance to be considered covered.\n3a) This question could still resolve positively if people are allowed (but not required) to have supplemental insurance.\n3b) A plan that requires a modest copay (limited to total payments of no more than $3000/year) to recieve care would still resolve positively\nIf the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.\nFor example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).\nThis question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:52:47.567Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 195,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-05T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Tucker Carlson be the Republican Presidential nominee in 2024 US presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5062/will-tucker-carlson-be-the-republican-presidential-nominee-in-2024-us-presidential-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Tucker Carlson is per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tucker_Carlson):\nTucker Swanson McNear Carlson[2] (born May 16, 1969)[3] is an American television presenter, political commentator, author, and columnist who has hosted the nightly political talk show Tucker Carlson Tonight on Fox News since 2016.\nCarlson became a print journalist in the 1990s, writing for the magazine The Weekly Standard. He was a CNN commentator from 2000 to 2005, and co-host of the network's prime-time news debate program Crossfire from 2001 to 2005. He would go on to host the nightly program Tucker on MSNBC from 2005 to 2008. He has been a political analyst for Fox News since 2009, appearing as guest or guest host on various programs before the launch of his current show. In 2010, Carlson co-founded and served as the initial editor-in-chief of the right-wing news and opinion website The Daily Caller, until selling his ownership stake and leaving the site in 2020.[4]\nOriginally a proponent of libertarian economic policy and a supporter of Ron Paul, Carlson would come to criticize the ideology as being \"controlled by the banks\" and became an active adherer to protectionism.[2][5] He has also espoused anti-interventionalist views, renouncing his initial support of the Iraq War the year after it was declared.[2][6] A vocal opponent of progressivism, he's been called a nationalist by observers.[7] An advocate of U.S. president Donald Trump, he has been described as \"perhaps the highest-profile proponent of 'Trumpism' and willing to criticize Trump if he strayed from it.\"[8]\nCarlson has written two books: a memoir titled Politicians, Partisans and Parasites: My Adventures in Cable News (2003); and Ship of Fools: How a Selfish Ruling Class is Bringing America to the Brink of Revolution (2018). \nThere is some speculation that he might run in 2024: Politico has [Tucker Carlson 2024? The GOP is buzzing](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/02/tucker-carlson-2024-republicans-348334):\nTucker Carlson’s audience is booming — and so is chatter that the popular Fox News host will parlay his TV perch into a run for president in 2024.\nRepublican strategists, conservative commentators, and former Trump campaign and administration officials are buzzing about Carlson as the next-generation leader of Donald Trump’s movement — with many believing he would be an immediate frontrunner in a Republican primary.\n“He’s a talented communicator with a massive platform. I think if he runs he’d be formidable,” said Luke Thompson, a Republican strategist who worked for Jeb Bush’s super PAC in 2016. \nOthers:\n---Guardian: ['His hatred is infectious': Tucker Carlson, Trump's heir apparent and 2024 candidate?](https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/jul/12/tucker-carlson-trump-fox-news-republicans) \n---Daily Mail: [Tucker Carlson for president? Former Trump campaign and GOP officials believe the Fox News host could lead a successful 2024 presidential campaign after his show becomes the highest-rated program in Cable News](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8485933/Former-Trump-campaign-officials-believe-Tucker-Carlson-win-2024-election.html) \nWill Tucker Carlson win the Republican Presidential nomination in 2024?\nThis resolves positive if Carlson is nominated by the Republican party to be the official candidate for the presidency by the end of 2024.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:17:12.157Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 314,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-07-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Are we in a simulated reality? Part II",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/280/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-ii/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In [Part I](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/278/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-i/), we discussed two (of perhaps more) potential \"modes\" in which we might inhabit a simulated reality: NCVR (Natural Consciousness, Virtual Reality) and ACSR (Artificial Consciousness, Simulated Reality). \nOf the two, NCVR seems a much more straightforward extrapolation of current technology: it is easy to imagine current visual and audio VR becoming more high-resolution, rich, and convincing even over the next couple of decades. Replicating senses of touch, taste, smell, proprioception, equilibrioception, hunger, etc., will be quite a bit harder, probably requiring neural implants and an exquisite understanding of human sense perception – but such implants exist now in very crude form and their extrapolation does not seem in tension with other basic ideas of how reality works.\nACSR is much more contentious, requiring the assumption not just that true Artificial Intelligence will be developed, but that it can take a form that experiences just what we do. It is generally assumed that this would occur via the mechanism of simulating (or \"uploading\") a human brain's operation into a simulation of that operation. (Though it might occur via other paths.) Nobody knows on what timescale this is possible, and it is possible (and believed by some) that there are fundamental obstacles such simulations/uploads. Further, the uploaded mind must exist in a reality that is carefully enough simulated to convincingly replicate a full physical reality (just as in the NCVR case.) \nBoth modes raise a very tricky challenge of deciding how much to simulate. The sensory stream of an individual mind should be no challenge several decades from now. On the other hand, an ab-initio full simulation of physical reality for a region even of solar-system size seems likely to require a completely prohibitive amount of computing power using any foreseeable technology. (There are a lot of interesting considerations here, that would take much more space to flesh out.)\nAs a definite question, we'll ask something about the distant but not impossibly-distant future:\nBy the year 2100, will computer simulations be run with sufficiently high fidelity to the current consensus physical reality experienced by Metaculus users in 2016-2018 that all of the participation in Metaculus thus far and over the coming ~2 years could in practice be so simulated?\nBy implication, if P is the probability given assigned to this question, and Q is the probability that the experience of Metaculus will in fact be simulated given the capability of doing so, then the reader of this question could reasonably attribute a probability exceeding PQ/(1+PQ) to being part of that simulation. The probability could be much higher if many, many such simulations are run, and a flat probability measure is taken over the simulated and real beings, per the discussion in [Part I](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/278/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-i/).\nNote that the question is stronger than whether any convincing NCVR is possible, or whether ACSR is possible at all: in particular, the NCVR would have to include implanting of false memories (of a life before Metaculus), and ACSR would have to stand up to close scrutiny by all Metaculus participants for two years, some of which are scientists studying the nature of their reality in quite rigorous method and detail.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:09:00.505Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 451,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-07-15T17:15:15Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the average price per pound of Beyond and Impossible plant-based ground beef become lower than the average cost per pound of conventional ground beef in the US before April 22, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8843/-of-plant-based-beef---of-conventional-beef/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "While once prohibitively high, the cost of plant-based meat [continues to fall](https://www.greenmatters.com/p/why-is-plant-based-meat-so-expensive), with Impossible Foods and Beyond Meat's ground 'beef' prices now much closer to par with the average price for ground beef in America. \nHowever, with an industry optimized for efficiency over the last hundred years, and subsidized by the government, [animal agriculture is a hard market to beat](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2021/2/2/22260454/impossible-foods-burger-plant-based-meat). Artificially low prices from failing to provide for negative externalities on animal welfare, worker welfare, and ecological damage allow meat producers and companies to consistently under-price their goods. \nAs plant based meat companies grow and are able to produce at scale, costs of production decrease and a virtuous cycle begins where lower prices draw larger numbers of consumers, which in turn allows for more efficiently scaled production. This is what has allowed for the most recent 20% price cut on Impossible Foods ground 'beef,' and leads experts to believe that plant based meat will eventually [become much more cost effective](https://gfi.org/blog/plant-based-meat-will-be-less-expensive/) than animal based products. \nAccording to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average price for all uncooked ground beef across the U.S cities in February 2021 was $4.556 per pound, a 6% increase from February 2020. In the spring of 2021 the average price of ground plant-based beef from Impossible Foods and Beyond Meat (per their websites) is approximately $12.5 per pound. Therefore we ask about further development of these prices.\nWill the average price per pound of Beyond and Impossible plant-based ground beef become lower than the average cost per pound of conventional ground beef in the US before April 22, 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if the mean price per pound of plant-based meat, averaged from Impossible Food and Beyond Meat, is less than the average price per pound of all uncooked ground beef before April 22, 2023. Prices should be calculated in US dollars, unadjusted for inflation. \nThe average price per pound of plant-based meat will be averaged from the retail price per pound of Impossible Foods ground beef ([using their 12 ounce pack](https://impossiblefoods.com/products/burger/12-oz-pack)) and Beyond Meat ground beef ([using their Beef Bulk Pack](https://www.beyondmeat.com/products/beyond-beef-six-pack?variant=beef). If these specific products are not available at time of resolution, a comparable bulk-package ground beef product by the same company will be used instead. Prices for each product will be taken from either the manufacturer's direct-to-customer e-commerce website or major US online grocers (such as Walmart or Amazon), whichever is cheapest, excepting sales and special offers.\nWe are asking only about companies Beyond and Impossible. If a new company is created (other than Beyond/Impossible) that creates artificial ground beef and is able to bring prices down to answer this question, this question will still resolve negatively. (A year is a short time to start a new company and such a new company may have introductory prices that don't reflect real costs).\nIf either Beyond Meat or Impossible foods stops producing plant-based ground beef before the resolution is met, or if either company discontinues their multi-pound ground beef options, admins can select other similar plant-based companies, or company products, that adequately fulfill the brief to resolve the question. Other products, if used to calculated the average price per pound of plant-based ground beef, must be 100% plant-based and listed as a substitute for ground beef.\nConventional ground beef prices will be sourced from the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/regions/mid-atlantic/data/averageretailfoodandenergyprices_usandmidwest_table.htm) (the \"U.S. city average\" figures shall be used). If these statistics are not available in April 2023, an equivalent statistic will be chosen, preferably published by a government organization.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:14:07.808Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 59,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-13T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will North Korea and South Korea be recognized as a unified sovereign state by 2045?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7037/korean-reunification-by-2045/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "All of Korea had been unified as a single state for centuries. After World War II and beginning in the Cold War, Korea was divided into two countries along the 38th parallel (now the Korean Demilitarized Zone). In 1950, North Korea invaded the South, beginning the Korean War, which ended in stalemate in 1953. \nEven after the end of the Korean War, [reunification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_reunification) proved a challenge as the two countries became increasingly diverged at a steady pace. However, in the late 2010s, relations between North and South Korea warmed somewhat, beginning with North Korea's participation at the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea. In 2019, South Korean president Moon Jae-in proposed reunification of the two divided states in the Korean peninsula by 2045.\nWill North Korea and South Korea be recognized as a single sovereign state by 2045?\nThe question resolves positively if either:\n---North Korea and South Korea (or their respective descendants if they change name) merge. \nor\n---North Korea, South Korea or both (or their respective descendants if they change name) stop existing, and an entity (possibly the one that's left) controls 90%+ of the current North Korea + South Korea landmass and has its capital on that territory. \nResolution will be by reputable source that either has happened, as judged by Metaculus mods/admins.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:00:21.408Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 84,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2037-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2045-01-02T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Meta report 1 billion active users by the end of 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8509/will-meta-see-10%25E2%2581%25B9-active-users-by-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In [the promo video of Meta Platforms](https://youtu.be/4zppKxiIPiA?t=154) Mark Zuckerberg has said, that within a decade (from November 2021) Meta Platforms can reach a billion people. Will this happen?\n\nContext\n-------\n\n---Facebook in its [Q3 2021 Earnings](https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/doc_financials/2021/q3/FB-09.30.2021-Exhibit-99.1.pdf) reports 1.93 billion daily users and 2.91 billion monthly users. \n---In 2020, according to [this](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1098630/global-mobile-augmented-reality-ar-users/), there were 0.6 billion worldwide mobile AR users. \n---In 2020, according to [this](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1017008/united-states-vr-ar-users/), \"in 2018, 59.5 million people used AR at least once per month in the United States. The corresponding figure for 2022 was forecast to reach over 95 million users.\" \nWill Meta report 1 billion active users by the end of 2031?\nThis question resolves positively when Meta Platforms, Inc. (or company which will be a rebranded version of Metaverse) in its Q3 2031 Earnings (or an analogous document) will report one billion or more (), daily active users on its \"screenless\" platforms (AR or VR glasses, holograms, etc. combined).\nFor a more precise definition of technology being \"screenless\" see [related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4577/when-will-a-technology-replace-screens/).\nRelated questions: - [Date when new tech replaces visual screens](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4577/when-will-a-technology-replace-screens/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:56:40.755Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 133,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-07T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-03-31T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Maryland Democratic gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7599/Who-will-win-the-2022-Maryland-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of Maryland.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Peter Franchot",
- "probability": 0.32075471698113206,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Wes Moore",
- "probability": 0.29245283018867924,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rushern Baker",
- "probability": 0.2169811320754717,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tom Perez",
- "probability": 0.08490566037735849,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John King Jr.",
- "probability": 0.04716981132075472,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Doug Gansler",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ashwani Jain",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Rosenbaum",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Laura Neuman",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:03:55.351Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 24334
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Peter Franchot, Wes Moore, Rushern Baker, Tom Perez, John King Jr., Doug Gansler, Ashwani Jain, Mike Rosenbaum, Laura Neuman"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's March meeting? ",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/FED-005",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If the target federal funds rate is greater than 0.25% following the Federal Reserve's March meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see FED in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their March 16, 2022 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting. . The resolution source is: The upper bound of the target federal funds range published on the Federal Reserve official website. (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.06000000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4,
- "yes_bid": 95,
- "yes_ask": 96,
- "spread": 1,
- "shares_volume": 144532
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Arizona Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7550/Who-will-win-the-2022-Arizona-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Arizona. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Kari Lake",
- "probability": 0.66,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Matt Salmon",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kirk Adams",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Steve Gaynor",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kimberly Yee",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:02:25.368Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 26378
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Kari Lake, Matt Salmon, Kirk Adams, Steve Gaynor, Kimberly Yee"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8369/fatality-in-n-korea-nuclear-attack-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Which countries would be targeted in a nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nSee also similar questions regarding the chance of a fatality:\n--- \n[Pakistan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8368/fatality-in-pakistan-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Russia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8365/fatality-in-russia-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8364/fatality-in-china-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8367/fatality-in-india-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[US, UK or France](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8366/usa-uk-or-france-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\nWill there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in North Korea from an offensive nuclear detonation between 2021-11-01 and 2030-01-01. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:51:23.718Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The Ohio Senator elected in 2022 is Jim Renacci",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A85",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-01-25T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2050, will there be fewer than 400 public 4-year colleges in the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8495/fewer-than-400-us-colleges-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [skyrocketing cost of college education](https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/cpi2020.png?x91208) in the the United States has led many to speculate on how costs can be brought under control or if they'll continue to rise. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about college education in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nThe education bubble will have popped and in 2050 the majority of education will take place online. A combination of private tutors and MOOCs and testing centers will have become the most common form of education. Students will compile credits from these different courses for different degrees. Colleges and universities will have lost much of their prestige and most mid-tier institutions will be closed or closing.\nAccording to the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) there were [768 public 4 year colleges in the US in the 2018-2019 school year](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d20/tables/dt20_105.50.asp?current=yes). If this number fell under 400 by 2050, that would be a drop of 48%.\nBy 2050, will there be fewer than 400 public 4-year colleges in the US?\nThis question will resolve positively if there are fewer than 400 public 4 year colleges in the US in any year after 2018, up to and including the 2049-2050 school term, according to [NCES](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d20/tables/dt20_105.50.asp?current=yes). If NCES no longer reports this data, other credible sources may be used. If the school year is no longer over a similar period, the final term can be any period which ends in 2050.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.46,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:55:58.568Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2041-01-01T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2056-01-01T03:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will India have a successful crewed moon landing by end of 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5919/india-successful-crewed-moon-landing-by-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One of the key aims of India’s [Human Spaceflight Programme](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme) is to successfully complete a crewed landing on the moon.\nWill India have a successful crewed moon landing by the end of 2026?\nThis will resolve on the basis of credible media reporting that India has successfully landed at least one astronaut on the moon. The relevant rocket must be principally engineered and operated by India's Space Programme, such as the Indian Space Research Organisation. \nFor a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. \n“The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of India for this to resolve positively. An Indian citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:30:52.665Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8130/north-korea-possess-material-for-100-warheads/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nBefore 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?\nAs of September 28, 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) that North Korea has enough fissile material to make 45 warheads. This question will resolve positively if, anytime before 2024, FAS states that they think it is likely that North Korea has enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads (whether or not those warheads have actually been assembled).\nResolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). If they do not publish relevant estimates in the final quarter of 2023, they will be contacted to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively or negatively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, resolution will come from [the Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat) or any other similar platform.\nThis question will resolve no later than Jan 31, 2024 based on the best available information at that time, which may include an ambiguous resolution.\nRelated questions\n--- \n[How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7463/-countries-increase-nuclear-arsenal-by-10/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7453/fatality-from-nuclear-detonation-in-n-korea/).\nFor positive resolution, the mid-point of the estimate needs to be at or above 100. Statements such as \"we think it is likely that North Korea has enough fissile material to produce approximately 100 warheads\" or \"we think it is likely that North Korea has enough fissile material to produce 80-120 warheads\" would count. Statements such as \"we think it is likely that North Korea has enough fissile material to produce 90-100 warheads\" would not count. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:39:45.060Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 50,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-31T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of the registered vote will the named candidate receive in the first round of voting in the next French presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.187257276",
- "platform": "Betfair",
- "description": "If the named candidate is not on the ballot then this market will be void. This market will be turned in-play at the start of voting on the day of the election. Thereafter, the market will not be actively managed and customers are solely responsible for their positions. Customers should be aware that:
Transmissions described as “live” by some broadcasters may actually be delayed.
The extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data.
",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "14.99 percent or lower",
- "probability": 0.22562467745445994,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "15.00-19.99 percent",
- "probability": 0.5382923776832292,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "20.00-24.99 percent",
- "probability": 0.17103806194128415,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "25.00-29.99 percent",
- "probability": 0.05891311022422009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "30.00-34.99 percent",
- "probability": 0.005049695162076009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "35.00-39.99 percent",
- "probability": 0.0010820775347305733,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:00:25.987Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "volume": 7247.33
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "14.99 percent or lower, 15.00-19.99 percent, 20.00-24.99 percent, 25.00-29.99 percent, 30.00-34.99 percent, 35.00-39.99 percent"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8539/nuclear-weapons-employment-by-ai-globally/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on intersections between nuclear risk and AI. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8531/intersections-between-nuclear-risk-and-ai/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.\nBy 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?\nThe question resolves positively if there are at least three reputable sources that by 2024 state that such a state has made such a clear and public affirmation. This affirmation must be an official statement by one of the following: the head of state; the head of the state's ministry of defense or equivalent; a similarly important and relevant officia; head of one of the state's military services; any government or army body dedicated to overseeing the state's nuclear arms program, nuclear policy, etc. (or a top official of such a body); or an important diplomacy official from that state such as the state's ambassador to the US. We will also count claims made by a spokesperson for the aformentioned people and organizations (unless contested by the person or another key person from the organization).\n(If a forecaster feels there's a decent chance such an affirmation would be made by a person or entity whose membership on that list is debatable or by a person or entity who isn't on that list but should be, please raise that in the comments.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:58:45.408Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 44,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Rs win AZ 2022 Senate",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A159",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-30T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. average less than 100,000 new COVID-19 cases per day by April?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/SCASE-019",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If the seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for the United States is below 100,000 for a single day between Issuance and || Date ||, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. \n\nNote that this Contract may close and expire early. It will expire the first 10:00 AM following the CDC reporting the event has occured, the first 10:00 AM following data being released for April 01, 2022, or 10:00 AM on April 08, 2022.. The resolution source is: The seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for the United States according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.08999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4,
- "yes_bid": 91,
- "yes_ask": 94,
- "spread": 3,
- "shares_volume": 13062
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will one government govern 80% of Earth's population and economy by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7329/earth-government-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "China is currently [the most populous county in the world](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population), with 17.9% of the global population. Historically, only [various Chinese empires](https://vividmaps.com/largest-empires-by-population/) and the Mongol and Roman Empires have exceeded 30% of the global population. This question asks if by 2100, there will be a centralised government ruling over 80% of the world's population, and accounting for over 80% of global GDP.\nWill one government govern 80% of Earth's population and economy by 2100?\nThis question resolves positively if a single government rules over 80% of Earth population and 80% of Earth GDP at any point before January 1st 2100. An organisation would be considered an Earth government if it has supreme military authority in its territory, a unified foreign policy and the power to collect taxes and make laws. This would include the 2021 United States and exclude the 2021 European Union or United Nations.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:10:06.489Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 159,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-07-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a city on Earth with a population of over 100 million by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1052/will-there-be-a-city-on-earth-with-a-population-of-over-100-million-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For a mostly hairless, fangless species that was likely reduced to [just a few thousand members](https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2012/10/22/163397584/how-human-beings-almost-vanished-from-earth-in-70-000-b-c) in relatively recent times by a volcano, we've certainly been busy.\nThe human population on Earth now exceeds 7 billion. And we're still growing. [Not everyone](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rvuueqs3vI) is thrilled by this. But it's reality.\nCurrently, as of Q2 2018, Tokyo, Japan is the world's largest metropolis, cramming [over 38,000,000 people](https://www.worldatlas.com/citypops.htm) (give or take) into its borders.\nBut by the end of the century, we could (and probably will) witness far grander cities. \nPer Canadian demographers, Daniel Hoornweg and Kevin Pope, for instance, Lagos in Nigeria may swell to 100+M by 2100 if trends continue. Face 2 Face Africa has the story:\nBy 2100 if Nigeria’s population continues to grow and people move to cities at the same rate as now, Lagos with its current 20 million people could be home to more people than the state of California.\nThe demographers' full paper is [here](http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956247816663557). \nThe International Institute for Environment and Development goes into detail about why Hoornweg and Pope are so bullish on Africa [here](https://www.iied.org/will-africa-have-worlds-largest-cities-2100).\nWhether it's Lagos that claims the crown or some other city in Africa or elsewhere, what do you think? Will some metro hit 100M people by 2100? (For the estimate we will include the general metropolitan area rather than the strict city boundaries, as done [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_areas_by_population#Urban_areas_%28Top_100%29.))\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:19:11.484Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 297,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast.\nMany different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders.\nThe [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois.\nSo we ask: Will the first SOO Green Renewable Rail project complete and succeed before 2035?\nDefinitions of success:\n--- \nThere is a buried HVDC cable of length at least 150 miles running from a location in Iowa to a location in Illinois.\n--- \nThis cable is developed and installed by the Soo Green Renewable Rail organization, or a successor, partner, subsidiary, or spinoff.\n--- \nAt some instant before 2035 the cable must be transmitting at least 1000MW of power over a distance of 150 miles or more.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:34:40.093Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 120,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-04-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-04-27T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-15T20:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Texas Republican attorney general nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7312/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-Republican-attorney-general-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Attorney General of Texas.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Ken Paxton",
- "probability": 0.7075471698113207,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "George P. Bush",
- "probability": 0.2169811320754717,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Louie Gohmert",
- "probability": 0.03773584905660377,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Eva Guzman",
- "probability": 0.028301886792452827,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Matt Krause",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:59:17.740Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 112300
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Ken Paxton, George P. Bush, Louie Gohmert, Eva Guzman, Matt Krause"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7669/france-home-game-advantage/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[There is a phenomenon at the Olympics where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/)\nFrance is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. [Their last 6 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/France_at_the_Olympics#Medals_by_Summer_Games):\n2000: 6th 2004: 7th 2008: 10th 2012: 7th 2016: 7th 2020: 8th \nWill France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?\nThis question will resolve positively if France place in the top 5 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2024. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2024.\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \nRelated questions\n---[How many medals will Team USA win at Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7665/total-medals-won-by-the-usa-at-paris-2024/) \n---[Will the Team USA top the medal table at Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7664/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-in-paris/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:23:01.941Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-17T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-07-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-08-10T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2713/will-there-be-more-people-with-hivaids-in-2037-than-in-2017/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The human immunodeficiency viruses ([HIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV)) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that causes HIV infection and over time Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ([AIDS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIDS)). \nAIDS is a condition in humans in which progressive failure of the immune system allows life-threatening opportunistic infections and cancers to thrive. Without treatment, average survival time after infection with HIV is estimated to be 9 to 11 years, depending on the HIV subtype.\nHIV/AIDS has had a large impact on society, both as an illness and as a source of discrimination. The disease also has large economic impacts.[[1](http://data.unaids.org/pub/globalreport/2006/2006_gr_ch04_en.pdf)]\nAccording to [UNAIDS](http://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet), in 2017 (the latest data available) 36.9 million people globally were living with HIV, 1.8 million people became newly infected with HIV, and 940,000 people died from AIDS-related illnesses in 2017. In 2017, 21.7 million people living with HIV were accessing antiretroviral therapy, an increase of 2.3 million since 2016, and up from 8 million in 2010. \nAccording to [Avert.org](https://www.avert.org/who-we-are), a UK-based charity, the vast majority of people living with HIV are located in low-income and middle-income countries, with an estimated 66% living in sub-Saharan Africa.[[2](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] Among this group 19.6 million are living in East and Southern Africa which saw 800,000 new HIV infections in 2017.\nSince the start of the epidemic, an estimated 77.3 million people have become infected with HIV and 35.4 million people have died of AIDS-related illnesses.[[3](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] In 2017, 940,000 people died of AIDS-related illnesses. This number has reduced by more than 51% (1.9 million) since the peak in 2004 and 1.4 million in 2010.\nSubstantial progress has been made in devising successful therapies against HIV replication that can provide a sustained control of HIV replication.[[4](https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/immunotherapy-in-hiv-infection-2332-0877.1000102.php?aid=11848)] Among them, immunotherapeutic approaches are one of the exciting areas, with surprising recent progress toward a possible [permanent eradication of the virus in patients](https://futurism.com/the-byte/third-patient-reportedly-cured-hiv-free).\nThis question asks: will the number of people globally living with HIV/AIDS in 2037 be 36.9 million or more, according to the median estimate from UNAIDS?\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:34:29.075Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 300,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-04-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2037-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least one person in the NYT collectively makes at least 20 falsifiable predictions (with odds) by 3 Feb 2022",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A98",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-02-03T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8378/total-nuclear-weapon-yield-worlwide-by-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For further context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields, and a list of such questions, see [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ldq0qAutq5Gam8dIRVxA_bzd0Rqz_pL3md8dosHoXjU/edit).\nThe total yield across all arsenals depends on both the number of weapons in states' stockpiles and the yield of each of those weapons. This tournament has or will soon have other questions on the number of nuclear weapons that'll be in states' stockpiles and the largest yield weapon that'll be possessed. \nStockpiles include deployed, reserve/nondeployed, and retired (but still intact) warheads, and both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. If states that aren't currently nuclear-armed are nuclear-armed when the latest estimated published in 2029 are made, their stockpiles can count towards positive resolution.\nWill the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?\nResolution will be based on the most recent estimates published in 2029 by reputable sources such as the [Federation of American Scientists (FAS)](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/). If no reputable sources explicitly estimate the total yield across all states' nuclear stockpiles in 2029, resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins, who will:\n--- \nask an author of relevant publications (e.g., [Matt Korda](https://fas.org/expert/matt-korda/)) for an estimate, and/or \n--- \nmake an estimate based on what reputable sources say about things like the number of weapons of various types and the yield of those weapons, or the numbers and median yields of each states' nuclear stockpile\nOne example of a scenario where this question would resolve positively is one in which stockpiles include a total of more than 20,000 warheads and their mean yield is 500kt. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:52:10.133Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will DNA testing vindicate Jeanne Calment as the oldest recorded person in history?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3393/will-dna-testing-vindicate-jeanne-calment-as-the-oldest-recorded-person-in-history/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "To facilitate discussion, in what follows the names 'Jeanne Calment' and 'Yvonne Calment' refer to the women born in 1875 and 1898, respectively, regardless of when these women died; and the name 'Mme Calment' refers to the woman who died in 1997, regardless of when she was born.\nJeanne Calment (born 21 February 1875) was, until recently, widely considered to have died on 4 August 1997 and to be, as such, the oldest verified person in history, reaching the remarkable age of 122 years and 164 days. In 2018, Russian mathematician Nikolay Zak—prompted by Valery Novoselov, an assistant professor of gerontology and geriatrics at RUDN University in Moscow—uploaded a paper to ResearchGate, subsequently [published](http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/rej.2018.2167) in the journal Rejuvenation Research, challenging this view. Zak argued that the person who died in 1997 was Jeanne Calment's daughter, Yvonne Calment (born 29 January 1898), who upon Jeanne's death in 1934 assumed her official identity for tax evasion purposes.\nVersions of this “identity switch hypothesis” had been advanced in the past (including by [fellow Metaculites](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/#comment-2084)), but it was only with the publication of Zak’s paper and its popularization and further development by life-extension activist Yuri Deigin in [a series of blog posts](http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3000148.s001) that the thesis attracted widespread attention and discussion. The main facts adduced in support of this hypothesis are, to quote from Gwern's useful [summary](https://www.gwern.net/Questions#jeanne-calment), \"the suspiciousness of the Calment family archives being destroyed by them, some anomalies in Calment’s passport, oddities in family arrangements, apparent inconsistency of Calment’s recollections & timing of events & photos, facial landmarks like ear features not seeming to match up between young/old photos, and an obscure 2007 accusation in a French book that a French bureaucrat and/or the insurance company had uncovered the fraud but the French state quietly suppressed the findings because of Calment’s national fame.\"\nThe response of the professional community of demographers has been generally skeptical. Jean-Marie Robine, a respected scholar who co-validated Calment's longevity record, was [particularly critical](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/01/12/how-madame-calment-worlds-oldest-person-became-fuel-russian-conspiracy-theory/): \"You can talk with any scholar, who would say, we would not accept this even from a student. It’s not scientific, there’s no methodology, no hypothesis, no nothing.\" His colleague and co-author Michel Allard also criticized the study, though he [noted](https://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKCN1OX14T) that \"even if far-fetched, the Russians’ conclusions should be given consideration.\" After a \"rather tense\" meeting of the National Institute for Demographic Studies in early 2019, longevity experts from France, Swiss and Belgium concluded that an exhumation may be needed to settle the controversy.\nMore recently, it has been discovered that blood samples taken from Mme Calment have been preserved by the [Fondation Jean Dausset-CEPH](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fondation_Jean_Dausset-CEPH) in Paris. Furthermore, [researcher Phil Gibbs](https://the110club.com/did-jeanne-calment-really-reach-122-t3663-s315.html#p40063394) and [gerontologist Aubrey De Grey](https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/DNA-blood-test-could-reveal-if-Jeanne-Calment-was-really-122) independently noted that, because of inbreeding, Yvonne Calment had only 12 great-great-grandparents, whereas Jeanne Calment had the usual 16. Thus, the true identity of Mme Calment could be straightforwardly established by conducting a single DNA test on a blood sample already in possession of a laboratory.\nIn light of this, we now ask: Conditional on relevant DNA tests being carried out, will it be shown that Mme Calment was Jeanne Calment?\n\nResolution\n----------\n\nThe question will resolve before the official resolution date (January 1, 2030) if and when the results of a DNA test of Mme Calment, following either an exhumation of her body or an analysis of a preserved blood sample, are officially announced. The resolution will then be determined as follows:\n1-- \nIf the DNA of the exhumed body or the blood sample is shown to be that of someone with 12 great-great-grandparents, the question resolves negative; if it is shown the be that of someone with 16 great-great-grandparents, it resolves positive; otherwise, it resolves ambiguous.\n2-- \nIf the official body of Yvonne Calment is also exhumed and tested, the question resolves negative if DNA testing shows Mme Calment to be Yvonne Calment, and positive otherwise.\n3-- \nIn the unlikely event that both of the criteria above become relevant and yield inconsistent resolutions, the question will resolve according to criterion (2).\nIn all these cases, the question will retroactively close one week before the test results are officially announced.\nIf the question doesn't resolve before the official resolution date, it will resolve ambiguous.\n\nFurther reading\n---------------\n\nIn addition to the writings listed above, readers may want to consult the following papers:\n--- \nZak & Gibbs, [A Bayesian Assessment of the Longevity of Jeanne Calment](http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/rej.2019.2227) (in favor of the ID switch hypothesis).\n--- \nRobine, Allard, Herrmann & Jeune, [The Real Facts Supporting Jeanne Calment as the Oldest Ever Human](http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gerona/glz198) (against the ID switch hypothesis).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.41,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:48:17.642Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 166,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-03T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T04:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T04:01:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the \"natural\" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing beyond the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan?\nA [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind. \nWho will win? \nResolution is positive if a human born prior to 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150. Per the current list of oldest humans, the earliest possible resolution time is 2049.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.59,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.41000000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:09:37.982Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1088,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-10-18T15:13:45Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-10-19T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2159-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7849/2024-us-house-midterm-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the White House, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too.\nIf Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2024, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen?\n435* seats will be contested in 2024 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2025 and certifies its membership.\nWill Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?\nResolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolves false if Democrats^ win 50% + 1 or more seats. If neither of those parties wins 50% + 1 or more (e.g. an unaligned 3rd party wins seats), then the question resolves ambiguously.\n.* If the total number of seats in the US House changes, then the number needed for a majority changes with it.\n.^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.66,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:28:52.803Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 44,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-05T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-04T19:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Anthony Gonzalez win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Ohio House district?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7170/Will-Anthony-Gonzalez-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Ohio-House-district",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Anthony Gonzalez wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Ohio .\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:56:59.268Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 33771
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which state will hold the first Democratic primary for the 2024 nominee?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7158/Which-state-will-hold-the-first-Democratic-primary-for-the-2024-nominee",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the U.S. state that holds the first statewide primary election for the award or selection of delegates to determine the nominee of the Democratic Party in the 2024 presidential election. \nEvents run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions, and \"beauty contest\" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded, shall not be considered when resolving this market.\nThe timing of absentee, mail-in or other options that may be available prior to the date of the primary election shall not be considered when resolving this market.\nShould two or more states hold a primary election on the same calendar day, this market shall resolve for the state ranked first when qualifying states are ordered alphabetically.\nAdditional contracts identifying states not listed at the time of launch of this market may be added at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 03/09/2021 12:40 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: The second paragraph of the Rules means that the following shall not be considered when resolving this market:\n* Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions; and\n* \"Beauty contest\" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "New Hampshire",
- "probability": 0.7383177570093458,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nevada",
- "probability": 0.12149532710280374,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "South Carolina",
- "probability": 0.09345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Iowa",
- "probability": 0.04672897196261682,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:56:43.619Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 89917
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, Iowa"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1534/will-the-incarceration-rate-in-the-us-drop-below-500-per-100000-by-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In [April 2018](https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cpus16.pdf) the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) reported that the incarcerated US population has continued to decrease. This population includes offenders under the jurisdiction of state or federal prisons or held in local jails. For 2016, the incarceration rate for all ages is 670 out of 100,000 US residents. (If you are interested in a world-wide comparison please see the [World Prison Brief](http://www.prisonstudies.org/)). \nCurrently the incarceration rate is at its lowest since 1993 and has been decreasing since reaching a peak in 2009. [Incarceration Rate, 1980-2016](https://www.bjs.gov/content/keystatistics/images/7_Incarceration_rate_1980_2016.png)\nWill the rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022 (all ages)? Note that the last time the rate was this low was in 1991.\nQuestion resolves as affirmative if the incarceration rate, as reported by the BJS, drops below 500 per 100,000 for at least one year within 2019-2022.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:25:41.398Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 76,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-15T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-03-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-05-01T04:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism by 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7819/afghanistan-based-anti-nato-terrorism-by-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "By August 2021, most of Afghanistan has fallen under the control of the Taliban, including the capital of Kabul on August 15. The last time the Taliban controlled Afghanistan, it was the location of [Al Qaeda training bases and leadership](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Responsibility_for_the_September_11_attacks) that led to the 9/11 attacks on the United States and the subsequent invasion of Afghanistan by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). With the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban, there is [increased concern](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-08-15/concerns-over-us-terror-threats-rising-as-taliban-seizes-power-in-afghanistan) that it will be used as a base for terrorist attacks.\nWill Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism by 2026?\nThis question will resolve positively in the event that both of the below are true, based on credible media reports: \n1--A terrorist attack that kill at least 10 people has been conducted against a NATO nation by December 31, 2026. Such an attack must occur outside of Afghanistan. \nAND\n2--This terrorist attack was carried out by: \n------A member of the Afghan Taliban, or \n------A member of any terrorist organization funded, supported, or protected by the Afghan Taliban. \n--- \nResolution will be based on credible media reports of a determination by any of the below entities: \n------The United States federal government \n------NATO \n------The European Union \n--- \nIf one or more such attacks have not been confirmed by any of the above entities, then this question will resolve negatively.\n1-- \nAn attack will be considered \"against a NATO nation\" if it occurs within a NATO nation's internationally recognized borders, or is deliberately targeted towards a NATO nation's government facilities or personnel overseas (e.g. embassy or military base) outside of Afghanistan. A terrorist attack within a non-NATO nation that is not targeted at a NATO nation's government facility or personnel (e.g. an attack on a sports stadium in India that incidentally kills >10 NATO nationals) will not be sufficient to trigger a positive resolution. \n2-- \nIf the attacks result in the deaths of the attackers, such as in a suicide bombing, those deaths will not count towards the resolution criteria, even if the attackers are citizens of a NATO nation. \n3-- \nWhat counts as a \"terrorist organization\" will be determined by the US federal government, NATO, or the European Union. \n4-- \nIn the event that NATO ceases to exist by the resolution date, the question will resolve negatively if no such attack occurs prior to NATO's dissolution.\n5-- \nAny terrorist attacks that occur while the Taliban are not in control of Afghanistan will not trigger a positive resolution. The Taliban will be considered in control of Afghanistan if they control either Kabul or a majority (18+ / 34) [provincial capitals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provinces_of_Afghanistan). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.46,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:27:50.198Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 53,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-03T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-06-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).\nWill Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:39:47.777Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 312,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T15:03:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any national GOP primary poll show someone beating Trump by July 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7619/Will-any-national-GOP-primary-poll-show-someone-beating-Trump-by-July-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes if any national primary poll of likely or registered Republican voters for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination is released by a pollster rated \"B\" or higher by fivethirtyeight.com and shows President Donald Trump to be in second place or lower. Qualifying polls must show President Trump as a candidate and be posted to the FiveThirtyEight poll aggregator subsequent to the launch of this market on December 1, 2021 and by the End Date listed below. A poll that shows Mr. Trump in a tie for first place shall be insufficient to resolve this market to Yes. \nAt the time of the launch of this market market, the FiveThirtyEight poll aggregator can be found at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/, while pollster ratings can be found at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/. For purposes of this market, a rating of \"A/B\" shall be considered to be \"B\" or higher. A rating of \"B/C\" shall not be considered to be \"B\" or higher. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:04:25.848Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 28611
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will lead in 538 Congressional generic ballot polling for Feb. 9?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7728/Which-party-will-lead-in-538-Congressional-generic-ballot-polling-for-Feb-9",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "**Please note that the this market now resolves on Thursday based on the polling average for Wednesday**\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the difference in the FiveThirtyEight Congressional generic ballot polling average for the 2022 midterm election, for February 9 at the End Date listed below. \nThe official polling lead will be drawn from the polling index graph entitled \"Do Voters Want Democrats Or Republicans In Congress?\", available upon launch of this market at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/, as displayed on the graph for February 9 at the End Date listed below. Should the graph not display a number for February at the End Date, this market shall resolve based on the number displayed at the End Date for the most recent prior day.\nThe polling lead will be calculated by subtracting the number displayed on the graph for February 9 for \"Republicans\" from the number displayed for \"Democrats,\" or vice versa depending on which party is leading or if there is a tie. No other method of calculating the generic ballot leader shall be relevant. Should the relevant polling average contain either a tie or a Democratic lead, the contract identifying the range \"≤ GOP 0.8%\" shall resolve to Yes.\nShould that source be unavailable for the day in question at that time, PredictIt will, at its sole discretion, await an update, select the most recent data point in the identified series or an alternate source, or construct its own polling average.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/10/2022 10:00 AM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "≤ GOP 0.8%",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "GOP 0.9%-1.1%",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "GOP 1.2%-1.4%",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "GOP 1.5%-1.7%",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "GOP 1.8%-2.0%",
- "probability": 0.9252336448598131,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "GOP 2.1%-2.3%",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "GOP 2.4%-2.6%",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "GOP 2.7%-2.9%",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "GOP ≥ 3.0%",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:08:40.514Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 46846
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "≤ GOP 0.8%, GOP 0.9%-1.1%, GOP 1.2%-1.4%, GOP 1.5%-1.7%, GOP 1.8%-2.0%, GOP 2.1%-2.3%, GOP 2.4%-2.6%, GOP 2.7%-2.9%, GOP ≥ 3.0%"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will most of the first 100 IQ-selected \"designer babies\" be born in China?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7925/china-and-designer-babies/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[A previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/) asks when 100 babies will be born who are selected for intelligence. Here, we ask how many of them will be born in China.\nWill most of the first 100 IQ-selected \"designer babies\" be born in China?\nThis question resolves positively if more than 50 of the first 100 babies who were developed from an embryo selected for polygenic scores for intelligence are born in the People's Republic of China, according to credible reports. If 100 such babies are not born by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\nFor this question to resolve positively, it must be the case that the polygenetic selection is done in part for the purpose of increasing the expected intelligence; incidental effects on expected intelligence arising from polygenetic selection or screening for non-intelligence-related traits should not trigger positive resoltion.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.64,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:32:06.341Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 97,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-16T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.\nQuestion: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?\nThis resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both:\n---Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender). \n---Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:01:03.489Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 269,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in France?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2158-which-party-s-candidate-will-win-the-next-presidential-election-in-france",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "France is scheduled to hold its next presidential election on 10 April 2022, with a possible runoff two weeks later ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/a-turbulent-political-year-is-in-store-for-france), [France24](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20210713-france-to-hold-2022-presidential-election-rounds-on-april-10-and-24)). Incumbent Emmanuel Macron is expected to formally announce his candidacy in 2022 ([Politico.eu](https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-hits-the-campaign-trail/), [Politico.eu - France Poll of Polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "National Rally (Rassemblement National)",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The Republic Forward (La République En Marche!)",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The Republicans (Les Républicains)",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Unbowed France (La France Insoumise)",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "None of the above",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:03:57.750Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 443,
- "numforecasters": 198,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "National Rally (Rassemblement National), The Republic Forward (La République En Marche!), The Republicans (Les Républicains), Unbowed France (La France Insoumise), None of the above"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:23:23.207Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 304,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-18T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9214/kassym-jomart-tokayev-exits-presidency-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On January 2nd, 2022, a steep rise in fuel prices in Kazakhstan led to [local protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Kazakh_protests), which quickly led to nationwide demonstrations including in the nation’s capital. The demands of the protesters are the decrease in fuel prices, but now include the resignation of both the current president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, and the cabinet and also the removal of criminal immunity of the former president Nursultan Nazabayev. A state of emergency has been declared, and the Mamin Cabinet, the current government of the country, resigned on January 5th. \nLater on January 5th, Nursultan Nazarbayev resigned as the Chairman of the Security Council. [Tokayev succeeded him](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/kazakhstan-government-resigns-after-violent-protests-over-fuel-price-2022-01-05/).\nThere have been reports of [dozens of police and civilian deaths](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/06/protesters-police-die-amid-kazakhstan-unrest), alongside widespread arson and looting. 3,000 Russian paratroopers have [arrived in Kazakhstan](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/06/shots-heard-in-kazakhstan-as-protests-enter-third-day).\nWill Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if, for a period of 1 week or more, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev does not hold the office the President of Kazahkstan (due to his resignation, a forceful coup, or through any means). This period must occur entirely in the year 2022 to resolve this question positively.\nIn the case of ambiguity (such as if more than one person claims to be the president), this question will consider Tokayev to remain the president if he has control of over 50% of Kazakh police forces or military forces.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:33:17.569Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 82,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-08T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-21T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will NASA land a person on the Moon before 2025? ",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/MOON-001",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If NASA announces that a manned NASA mission landed on the Moon before December 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see MOON in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nIf the event occurs prior to the Expiration Date, then the market will close and expire early. It will close and expire at the Expiration Time one day following the occurrence of the event.. The resolution source is: Press releases from NASA. (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4,
- "yes_bid": 15,
- "yes_ask": 16,
- "spread": 1,
- "shares_volume": 12214
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What caused the chemical calamity in Khan Sheikhoun on April 4, 2017?",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/what-caused-the-chemical-calamity-in-khan-sheikhoun-on-april-4-2017-18448",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "On April 4, 2017, Khan Sheikhoun, Syria came under attack. There were reports of dozens dead and hundreds injured, with those affected displaying signs of exposure to sarin.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Opposition forces carried out a chemical attack.",
- "probability": 0.8253215707870933,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The Syrian Army carried out a chemical attack.",
- "probability": 0.16344300992585953,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A Syrian Army conventional bombing unintentionally released opposition chemical agents.",
- "probability": 0.011235419287047115,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:09:13.887Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Opposition forces carried out a chemical attack., The Syrian Army carried out a chemical attack., A Syrian Army conventional bombing unintentionally released opposition chemical agents."
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1079/will-elon-musk-eventually-lose-his-appeal/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Elon Musk is the CEO and Lead Designer of SpaceX, the CEO of Tesla, Inc. and the CEO of Neuralink, yet increasingly it seems best to think of him as a celebrity. Elon Musk has (as of the writing of this question) 22.3 million followers on Twitter and single tweets have been known to shift Tesla's market cap by hundreds of millions of dollars. A large part of Musk's success has been his ability to raise billions of dollars for his various ventures, which (perhaps) was only made possible by his publicity.\nBut how long will Musk's fame last? Should he succeed in his highly ambitious goals and [establish a human colony on Mars](http://www.spacex.com/mars) or [make Tesla the world's largest auto company]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/) it seems inevitable that his popularity will continue to grow. Should he fail, however, it seems equally inevitable that people will at some point lose interest in him and his grandiose promises.\nWe can track Musk's fame via [Google Trends]( https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Elon%20Musk). This does not tell us what people's opinion of him is, but it does give us a pretty good idea about how much people are talking about Musk online.\nIt is asked:Will the total interest in Elon Musk on [Google Trends]( https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Elon%20Musk) in 2025 be less than a quarter of his total interest in 2020? \nTotal interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Elon Musk' and not for interest in Elon Musk as the CEO of SpaceX or some other specific category.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:19:59.025Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 495,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7598/rootclaim-challenge-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Rootclaim](https://www.rootclaim.com/) is a fact checker [founded](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israeli-startup-develops-the-ultimate-truth-machine-1.5457688) by [Saar Wilf](https://twitter.com/saarwilf/with_replies). Rootclaim is offering a bet to see if someone can win a debate on [some ](https://blog.rootclaim.com/100000-syria-debate-challenge/)[of](https://blog.rootclaim.com/treating-covid-19-with-vitamin-d-100000-challenge/) its conclusions. No one has taken any of the challenges yet.\nWill someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?\nThis question resolves positive if before 2025, Rootclaim or its representatives indicate (on its [website](http://rootclaim.com), social media, or elsewhere) that someone has taken up the Rootclaim challenge, and it is not retracted before that time.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:20:55.837Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-02-02T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The Democrat nominee for President in 2024 is someone other than Joe Biden and Kamala Harris",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A186",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-06-18T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1 trillion before 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5423/stripe-reaches-1tr-valuation-before-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Stripe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stripe_%28company%29) is an American financial services and SaaS company headquartered in San Francisco, California, United States.\nOn October 10th, 2020, Paul Graham Tweeted:\nI'm going to risk calling it. The feeling of deja vu is too strong. Stripe is the next Google.\nSomeone asked him to clarify his prediction: \"By market cap or evil?\", and Paul Graham responded:\nBy market cap, although when they're sufficiently big they will automatically be called evil, just as Google is.\nPaul Graham did not indicate the time-frame within which he expects this to happen, but let's say that if his prediction were correct, they'd reach a Google-level valuation by 2027.\nWill Stripe reach a valuation of $1tr before 2027?\nThis question resolves positively if credible financial media sources indicate that Stripe achieved a $1tr valuation (in 2020 USD) before the end of day, 2026-12-31.\nThe valuation will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used CPI for the US. In case Stripe is acquired before this question resolves positively, the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:22:35.029Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 110,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-02-19T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2025, will code generating AI have been pre-trained on a natural language corpus?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9123/pre-training-for-code-generation-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Natural language pre-training of language models supports impressive performance gains on downstream tasks cf. [[1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2110.03501v2), [2](https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.01293), [3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165v4)]. However, research into scaling laws shows some of these gains fall off as downstream task data availability increases. In this context, we'd like to know whether natural language pre-training will continue to be useful as training scales up.\nIn 2025, will code generating AI have been pre-trained on a natural language corpus?\nThis questions resolves positively if the most used code generating AI (by monthly average users, Dec. 2025) was pre-trained on a corpus of >50% natural language.\nIf monthly average user data is unavailable, total number of downloads of the corresponding repository/plug-in may be used for comparison instead. If no such metric is available, then the successor to GitHub Copilot will be used for resolution purposes. If all of these conditions fail, the question will resolve ambiguously.\nIf the precise composition of the relevant pre-training corpus is not publicly known, it will qualify for positive resolution if it is described as a natural language corpus. Alternatively, if the corpus is known to draw on sources (e.g. Twitter, books, etc.) the majority of which are not primarily used for sharing code, then the corpus will also qualify for positive resolution. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:30:15.273Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T20:05:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:05:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "DJT wins 2024 POTUS election",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A225",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.86,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-10-04T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes.\nThe [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021.\nBiden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden.\nWill a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?\nThis question will resolve positively if a candidate from the [Democratic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29) party recieves the most votes in the [Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_%28United_States%29) in the [2024 US presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election). It will resolve on the date congress certifies the votes, or when congress selects the president in the case a candidate does not recieve a majority.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:43:57.702Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 444,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-05T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-21T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8635/total-yield-of-nukes-50mt-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, arsenal sizes, or yields, see [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/).\nThe total yield used depends on both the number of weapons used and the yield of each of those weapons. This tournament has or will soon have other questions on the number of nuclear weapons that'll be used (if any are), the total yield of arsenals, and the largest yield weapon that will be possessed or used.\nWill the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?\nThis question resolves positively if there's at least one offensive detonation by 2050 and total yield (across all conflicts) is above 50 megatonnes. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs before 2050.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions), but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion).\nResolution will be based on estimates from reliable news sources or from government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \nRelated questions\n--- \n[Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8632/total-yield-of-nukes-1000mt-by-2050/)\n--- \n[How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\n--- \n[What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8372/the-largest-yield-nuclear-weapon-by-2050/)\nOne example of a scenario where this question would resolve positively is one in which more than 100 nuclear weapons are offensively detonated, with a mean yield per weapon of 500kt.\nIf there are multiple nuclear conflicts by 2050, resolution will be based on the total yield across all of these conflicts.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.31,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.69,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:04:43.908Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2518/will-there-be-another-vei-level-six-or-higher-volcanic-eruption-on-earth-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Volcanic Explosivity Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_Explosivity_Index) (VEI) is a relative measure of the explosiveness of volcanic eruptions. It was devised by Chris Newhall of the United States Geological Survey and Stephen Self at the University of Hawaii in 1982.\nVolume of products, eruption cloud height, and qualitative observations (using terms ranging from \"gentle\" to \"mega-colossal\") are used to determine the explosivity value. The scale is open-ended with the largest volcanoes in history given magnitude 8. A value of 0 is given for non-explosive eruptions, defined as less than 10,000 m^3 (350,000 cu ft) of tephra ejected; and 8 representing a mega-colossal explosive eruption that can eject 1.0×1012 m^3 (240 cubic miles) of tephra and have a cloud column height of over 20 km (66,000 ft).\nThe scale is logarithmic, with each interval on the scale representing a tenfold increase in observed ejecta criteria, with the exception of between VEI 0, VEI 1 and VEI 2.\nAn eruption rated level six on the VEI would involve ejecta volume of at least 10 km3, a plume height of at least 20 km, and substantial troposhperic and stratospheric injection of material.\nThree eruptions ranking level six have occurred since 1900: [Santa Maria in 1902](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Mar%C3%ADa_%28volcano%29#1902_eruption), [Novarupta in 1912](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novarupta#Eruption_of_1912), and [Mount Pinatubo in 1991](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Pinatubo).\nThe most recent level seven eruption occurred at [Mount Tambora in 1815](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1815_eruption_of_Mount_Tambora), and the most recent level eight eruption [took place about 26,500 years ago](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oruanui_eruption).\nBy 2010, the [Global Volcanism Program of the Smithsonian Institution](http://volcano.si.edu/) had catalogued the assignment of a VEI for 7,742 volcanic eruptions that occurred during the Holocene (the last 11,700 years) which account for about 75% of the total known eruptions during the Holocene. Of these 7,742 eruptions, about 49% have a VEI of ≤ 2, and 90% have a VEI ≤ 3.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will any eruption rated level six, seven, or eight occur anywhere on Earth?\nThis question resolves positively if any competent authority on volcanism credibly assesses that an eruption occurring after this question opens but before 1 January 2025 is rated level six, seven or eight on the Volanic Explosivity Index. \nIn case of major controversy in the scientific community over this assessment, the resolution shall rest upon the VEI level assigned to the event by either the US Geological Survey or the comparable authority of the nation in which the event takes place. In the event that these numbers differ, the higher of the two shall be taken as correct for purposes of resolving this question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:31:02.844Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 187,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be against a battlefield target, if there's an offensive detonation by then?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8585/bt-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "What the first offensive nuclear detonation would look like is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how best to reduce that risk.\nWill the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be against a battlefield target, if there's an offensive detonation by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence that the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 was against a battlefield target. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world by 2024. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2024.\nA detonation will be considered to be against battlefield targets if the detonation occurs within 100km of a frontline of a conflict (unless credible media reporting widely considers a city to be the primary target of the detonation, in which case it will not be seen as a battlefield target even if it is close to a frontline). If there are many frontlines, then any will be considered for the purpose of evaluating this question. A frontline can be on land or in the sea.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons. [Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. \nSee also:\n--- \n[What fraction of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be against battlefield targets?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7411/nuclear-detonations-on-battlefield-targets/)\n--- \n[Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8584/nsnw-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be on city, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8586/city-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-target/)\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:01:32.346Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo run for a New York statewide executive office in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7732/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-run-for-a-New-York-statewide-executive-office-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo is a ballot-listed candidate in at least one of the 2022 Democratic primary elections for New York State Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, or Comptroller. Should no primary election be held for one of the listed offices due to Mr. Cuomo running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:08:58.969Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 3662
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7441/draft-registration-for-women-before-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The US Supreme Court in June [declined to hear a legal case](https://www.npr.org/2021/06/07/1003270634/supreme-court-turns-away-challenge-to-the-rule-that-only-men-register-for-the-dr) challenging the male-only draft on the grounds that it was unconstitutional sex discrimination. In the [opinion denying certification](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/20-928_e1p3.pdf) (written by Justice Sotomayor and joined by Justices Breyer and Kavanaugh) the following is stated (edited for easier readability):\nIn 2016, Congress created the National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service (NCMNPS) and tasked it with studying whether Selective Service registration should be conducted “regardless of sex.”\n. . .\nOn March 25, 2020, the Commission released its final report, in which it recommended “eliminat[ing] male-only registration.” Among other things, the Commission found that “[m]ale-only registration sends a message to women not only that they are not vital to the defense of the country but also that they are not expected to participate in defending it.” Just a few months ago, the Senate Armed Services Committee held a hearing on the report, where Chairman Jack Reed expressed his “hope” that a gender-neutral registration requirement will be “incorporated into the next national defense bill.” \n. . .\nIt remains to be seen, of course, whether Congress will end gender-based registration under the Military Selective Service Act. But at least for now, the Court’s longstanding deference to Congress on matters of national defense and military affairs cautions against granting review while Congress actively weighs the issue. I agree with the Court’s decision to deny the petition for a writ of certiorari.\nWill women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?\nThe question resolves positively if women (assigned female at birth) are legally required to register for US Selective Service prior to 2024-01-06. Resolution will be determined by reference to official legal codes or text or by reporting from at least three credible media sources that women are required to register for the draft. To resolve positively, women must be required to register prior to 2024-01-06; the passage of a law that required women to register on or after 2024-01-06 would not count. Elimination of Selective Service registration in its entirety would result in the question resolving negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.29,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:14:49.263Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 199,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-30T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-09-13T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-06T06:01:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald J. Trump be indicted by October 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-j-trump-be-indicted-by-october-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States unseals or otherwise officially announces a criminal indictment of former President Donald Trump before the resolution time October 1 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. \nOtherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nPlease note, for purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.\nNote also, that an indictment that has been issued before the resolution time but remains sealed or otherwise secret at the resolution time will not be considered in this market.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1450852483836065459634467870615382",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8549147516163934540365532129384618",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.519Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "35",
- "liquidity": "1585.23",
- "tradevolume": "1331.88",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0xF8AB73330785D63Ca18d0c4C37b35307bf568b45"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Jannik Sinner be the first man born in the 2000s to win a slam in Tennis?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6887/jannik-sinner-first-gen-x-slam-winner/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Jannik Sinner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jannik_Sinner) is an Italian professional tennis player. He is current the youngest tennis player in the top 10 based on Tennis Abstract's [Elo rankings](http://tennisabstract.com/reports/atp_elo_ratings.html)\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Who will be the first man born in the 2000s to win a Slam?\". Sinner was picked out as being most likely to win. To operationalise this, we ask what his chances are.\nWill Jannik Sinner be the first man born in the 2000s to win a slam?\nResolves positive if Jannik Sinner is the first male player born after the millennium to win a tennis Grand Slam. (One of Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon, US Open).\nResolves negative if a player other than Jannik Sinner born after the millennium wins a tennis Grand Slam before Sinner.\nResolution will be by credible media reports.\nThis question closes retroactively day before the beginning of the tournament which triggers resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:55:51.953Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-10T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Florida Democratic Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7288/Who-will-win-the-2022-Florida-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for U.S. Senator from Florida.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Val Demings",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Stephanie Murphy",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alan Grayson",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:59:09.449Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 18079
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Val Demings, Stephanie Murphy, Alan Grayson"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Texas average less than 17,000 new COVID-19 cases per day by March?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/SCASE-023",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If the seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for Texas is below 17,000 for a single day between Issuance and March 01, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. \n\nNote that this Contract may close and expire early. It will expire the first 10:00 AM following the CDC reporting the event has occured, the first 10:00 AM following data being released for March 01, 2022, or 10:00 AM on March 08, 2022.. The resolution source is: The seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for Texas according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.020000000000000018,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4,
- "yes_bid": 98,
- "yes_ask": 99,
- "spread": 1,
- "shares_volume": 13614
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8053/abiys-ethiopia-rule-disrupted-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Abiy Ahmed Ali has been Prime Minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia since 2018, and in 2021 he was [re-elected with a huge majority to a five-year term](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-57791868). But he faces [a spiraling civil war centered on Tigray Region](https://theconversation.com/tigray-war-antagonists-are-reluctant-to-talk-peace-why-and-whats-next-168193), which is [battering his economy](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-58319977) and leading to [increasing](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2021/09/17/background-press-call-by-senior-administration-officials-on-ethiopia/) international [pressure](https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/us-news/2021/09/24/biden-administration-considering-tigray-genocide-determination/).\nWill Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?\nA \"significant leadership disruption\" includes confirmed reports that Abiy has:\n---resigned (including the issuance of a resignation that will take effect at a later date), \n---lost a confidence vote, \n---lost an election, \n---formally left office, \n---died, \n---been forcibly removed from office for 10 or more consecutive days, \n---fled or been exiled from office for 10 or more consecutive days, \n---been medically incapacitated from discharging their duties for 10 or more consecutive days, \n---been missing (whereabouts unknown) for 10 or more consecutive days. \nResolution will be according to reliable published reports.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:37:19.749Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 166,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-13T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8977/roe-v-wade-overturned-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned by July 31, 2028?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/roe-v-wade-overturned-by-jul-31-2028/) \nAbortion is a famously controversial subject in the US, with adamant proponents for both sides arguing for abortion to be legal or illegal in all or nearly all circumstances. FiveThirtyEight journalist Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux estimated in December 2021 that [55-65% of Americans fall in the middle](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-americans-really-think-about-abortion/), favoring various degrees of access to abortion with restrictions. Gallup has found in polling consistently since 1989 [more Americans support Roe v Wade](https://news.gallup.com/poll/350804/americans-opposed-overturning-roe-wade.aspx) than wish to overturn it.\nIn October 2021, [Amy Coney Barrett](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Coney_Barrett_Supreme_Court_nomination) was appointed to the US Supreme Court, making 6 of the 9 sitting justices appointed by a Republican president. Many political pundits anticipated that this majority would result in overturning or altering [Roe v. Wade](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade). In Texas, [a law effectively banning abortions](https://web.archive.org/web/20211001005809/https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/01/health/texas-abortion-law-facts.html) occurring after the 6th week of pregnancy was brought before the court, but the case was [dismissed on procedural grounds](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/texass-abortion-law-is-unprecedented-but-the-supreme-court-isnt-treating-it-that-way/). The court also heard arguments in [Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dobbs_v._Jackson_Women%27s_Health_Organization), pertaining to a ban in Mississippi on abortions occurring after 15 weeks of pregnancy (fetal viability, the previous standard under Casey, is approximately 24 weeks of pregnancy). Dobbs is anticipated to be decided by June of 2022.\nWill the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?\nThis question will resolve positively if, anytime between December 1, 2021 to January 1, 2023, the [Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) overturns a previous ruling or upholds a state or federal law which bans elective abortions at some point [before the date of fetal viability](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planned_Parenthood_v._Casey). This decision may be rendered in [Dobbs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dobbs_v._Jackson_Women%27s_Health_Organization), a case concerning [the Texas Heartbeat Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_Heartbeat_Act), or in another case.\nBy \"banning elective abortions\", we mean for the purpose of this question any kind of criminal punishment, such as a felony, misdemeanor, infraction, or fine, as well as civil punishments such as revocation of medical or professional licenses, or eg. allowing private parties to sue abortion practitioners or patients. These punishments may be directed at individuals recieving abortions, individual doctors or medical professionals, or clinics and organizations who provide abortions, either punishing them for abortions performed or recieved, or making them effectively unable to perform/recieve an abortion.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.43999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:22:08.829Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-26T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9522/russia-invades-or-annexes-belarus-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[Before 1 January 2022, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1688/will-russia-invade-or-annex-all-or-part-of-belarus-before-2022/) [closed] \n[The Republic of Belarus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarus) is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe bordered by Russia to the northeast, Ukraine to the south, Poland to the west, and Lithuania and Latvia to the northwest. Until the 20th century, different states at various times controlled the lands of modern-day Belarus, including the Principality of Polotsk (11th to 14th centuries), the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth, and the Russian Empire.\nIn the aftermath of the 1917 Russian Revolution, Belarus declared independence as the Belarusian People's Republic, which was conquered by Soviet Russia. The Socialist Soviet Republic of Byelorussia became a founding constituent republic of the Soviet Union in 1922 and was renamed as the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic. During WWII, military operations devastated Belarus, which lost about a third of its population and more than half of its economic resources. The republic was redeveloped in the post-war years. In 1945 the Byelorussian SSR became a founding member of the United Nations, along with the Soviet Union and the Ukrainian SSR.\nThe parliament of the Republic proclaimed the sovereignty of Belarus on 27 July 1990, and during the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Belarus declared independence on 25 August 1991. [Alexander Lukashenko](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Lukashenko) has served as the country's first president since 1994. Belarus has been labeled \"Europe's last dictatorship\" by some Western journalists on account of Lukashenko's self-described authoritarian style of government.\nElections under Lukashenko's rule have been widely criticized as unfair; and according to many countries and organizations, political opposition has been violently suppressed. Belarus is also the last country in Europe using the death penalty. Belarus's [Democracy Index rating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index#By_country) is the lowest in Europe, the country is labelled as \"not free\" by [Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/country/belarus/freedom-net/2021), and as \"moderately free\" in the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/pdf/2021/countries/2021_IndexofEconomicFreedom-Belarus.pdf).\nBefore January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?\nThis question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2023, representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Belarus or annexed all or part of Belarus, or if any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded or annexed all or part of Belarus.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:43:59.226Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-01T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T12:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "50% Carbon-neutral electricity by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/273/50-carbon-neutral-electricity-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "At the recent North American Leaders' Summit in Canada, the leaders of the U.S., Canada, and Mexico announced a goal -- [a \"deliverable\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/06/29/fact-sheet-united-states-key-deliverables-2016-north-american-leaders) in the official parlance -- of having 50% of North American electricity generation come from zero-carbon sources by 2025. Such an energy mix would bring North America more into line with Europe. [Recent statistics](http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Net_electricity_generation,_EU-28,_2013_%281%29_%28%25_of_total,_based_on_GWh%29_YB15.png) show that just under 50% of European electricity generation comes from combustible fuels.\nThe Leaders' Summit goal would represent a material step in the direction of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, but it may be difficult to achieve in practice. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, [current electricity generation capacity](http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3) for the United States from zero-carbon sources is 33% (20% nuclear, 6% hydro-power, and 7% other sources such as wind, geothermal and solar). The corresponding figure when Canada and Mexico are added in is 37%. Raising the fraction significantly will require both substantial investments in infrastructure and disciplined political support.\nAdmittedly, resolution dates lying a decade in the future are not for the impatient (and they telegraph smug confidence in Metaculus' long-term success). Nonetheless, a question such as this, which gauges a near-term consensus on prospects, can give clarity on whether a long-term goal can be feasibly reached.\nBy 2025, will more than 50% of North America's electrical generation capacity be provided by zero-carbon sources?\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:08:55.167Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 168,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-07-03T23:30:36Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-01-01T23:30:51Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5318/nih-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the United States National Institute of Health states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe CDC [already recommends](https://www.cdc.gov/nutritionreport/pdf/nr_ch2b.pdf) Vitamin D supplementation in healthy people. This is not sufficient for resolution as the NIH [states](https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/adjunctive-therapy/vitamin-d/)\nThe role of vitamin D supplementation in the prevention or treatment of COVID-19 is not known. The rationale for using vitamin D is based largely on immunomodulatory effects that could potentially protect against COVID-19 infection or decrease the severity of illness. Ongoing observational studies are evaluating the role of vitamin D in preventing and treating COVID-19.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:21:10.154Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 211,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8992/us-ends-funding-gof-research-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Gain of Function research](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gain-of-function_research) (GoF) is a form of experimentation where medical researchers modify viruses and study ways in which they might become more transmissible or deadly. In [October 2014](https://www.nature.com/articles/514411a), The US implemented a ban on funding Gof research, which was later [lifted in December 2017](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-017-08837-7).\nVox Journalist Kelsey Piper in May 2020 [investigated several incidents](https://www.vox.com/2020/5/1/21243148/why-some-labs-work-on-making-viruses-deadlier-and-why-they-should-stop) of mishandling virus samples and laboratory safety violations. In reviewing the arguments for and against GoF research, Piper found the risks of such research leading to a deadly outbreak to be significant.\nIn a related Metaculus question [\"Before the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3682/health-agencies-to-claim-lab-escape-by-25/), The median prediction on December 24, 2021 is at 40%.\nWill the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if the US government announces a ban on federally funding gain-of-function research, effective anytime between December 1, 2021 to January 1, 2023. This ban may persist for any length of time, so long as it effectively begins during this period. Official government statements or Credible media reports may suffice as a resolution source.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:23:22.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 62,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-27T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9719/date-of-2022-russian-invasion-of-ukraine/) \nIn early December 2021, Russia has significantly increased the number of troops stationed on its border with Ukraine [to nearly 100,000](https://nyti.ms/3GORIEb), according to the New York Times. In 2014 [Russia invaded and annexed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War) the Ukrainian-held Crimean peninsula, and skirmishes between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists have continued in the Donbas region of Ukraine ever since, for which Russia has denied involvement. In December 2021 US [President Joe Biden warned Russian President Vladmir Putin](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-putin-to-discuss-ukraine-in-video-call-amid-growing-tensions/2021/12/06/e089e36a-5707-11ec-a219-9b4ae96da3b7_story.html) that If Ukraine were invaded, the US would respond with economic sanctions.\nWill Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if, between December 11, 2021 and January 1, 2023, representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Ukraine, or if any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded Ukraine. These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from December 11, 2021 to January 1, 2023. Areas of Ukraine [already occupied](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temporarily_occupied_territories_of_Ukraine) (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:17:24.936Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 2604,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6721/successful-seasteading-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasteading),\nSeasteading is the concept of creating permanent dwellings at sea, called seasteads, outside the territory claimed by any government. The term is a blend of sea and homesteading.\nProponents say seasteads can \"provide the means for rapid innovation in voluntary governance and reverse environmental damage to our oceans ... and foster entrepreneurship.\" Some critics fear seasteads are designed more as a refuge for the wealthy to avoid taxes or other obligations.\nNo one has yet created a structure on the high seas that has been recognized as a sovereign state. Proposed structures have included modified cruise ships, refitted oil platforms, and custom-built floating islands.\nAs an intermediate step, the Seasteading Institute has promoted cooperation with an existing nation on prototype floating islands with legal semi-autonomy within the nation's protected territorial waters. On January 13, 2017, the Seasteading Institute signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with French Polynesia to create the first semi-autonomous \"seazone\" for a prototype, but later that year political changes driven by the French Polynesia presidential election led to the indefinite postponement of the project. French Polynesia formally backed out of the project and permanently cut ties with Seasteading on March 14, 2018.\nThe first single-family seastead was launched near Phuket, Thailand by Ocean Builders. Two months later, the Thai Navy claimed the seastead was a threat to Thai sovereignty. As of 2019, Ocean Builders says it will be building again in Panama, with the support of government officials.\nWill there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2035, a seastead is launched and continuously operates for over one year, with at least 100 participants who live on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. Determination will be made based on credible media, and the best guess of the admins as to whether the seasteading operation had at least 100 participants who lived on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. If necessary, Metaculites can consult members of a proposed seasteading operation to determine whether it matches the resolution criteria.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:53:02.449Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_%28UK%29) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nThe Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001.\n[The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024.\nThis question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition?\nThis question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed.\nThis question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.43999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:49:42.692Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 483,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will annual U.S. inflation reach 100% in any year before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6604/us-hyperinflation-in-any-year-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Hyperinflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation) events have happened before in a number of countries.\nWill annual U.S. inflation reach 100% in any year before 2050?\nWill the CPI-U increase by 100% in any year before 2050?\nWe will prefer to resolve using the CPI-U. If the BLS stops reporting the exact CPI-U metric but continues reporting a very similar measure of inflation, and it is similar enough as deemed by the mods, then that will be used. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:49:42.074Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-06-20T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9487/omicron-generation-interval/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The generation interval is the time taken from the moment a person gets infected to the moment they infect a second person. On a population level, and as each individual typically transmits to multiple people, this forms a distribution. Along with the effective reproduction number (the average number of secondary infections from a single infected person), the generation interval distribution can be used to estimate the rate of transmission, forecast future infections, estimate the effectiveness of control measures, and potentially estimate the timing of an outbreak's peak and its final size.\nIf two infectious diseases have the same reproduction number but one has a shorter generation interval then case numbers for that disease will rise and fall more quickly than for a disease with longer generation intervals. Similarly, if it is wrongly assumed that two diseases have the same generation interval when one is actually shorter then estimates of the reproduction number will be biased upwards. This may result in poor quality forecasts and impact the policy interventions implemented.\n[Estimation of the generation interval is complex](https://twitter.com/sbfnk/status/1478468932155723779) as both it and the effective reproduction number may change over time, across locations, and within subpopulations. We can think of the generation interval as being composed of both an individual's infectiousness over time and their contacts with others. Both of these are likely to differ due to demographic factors (such as age) with an [individual's infectiousness](https://github.com/VirologyCharite/SARS-CoV-2-VL-paper) likely also being altered by the effectiveness of their immune system and characteristics of the disease itself. The number, and type, of contacts for infected individuals, are also likely to vary over time and this can be impacted by mitigation efforts leading to reductions in the estimated generation interval ([such as contact tracing](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.17.21266051v1)). Finally, realised generation intervals may be dependent on the transmissibility of a disease with more transmissible diseases more rapidly depleting their local networks ([such as households](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.21.21265216v1)), and local (or global) high prevalence leading to an observed [reduction due to competition effects between infectors](https://arxiv.org/abs/0706.2024v3).\nThere are several transmission distributions that are related to the generation time including the serial interval (which is the time between the onset of symptoms for an infector and an infectee) , and the test-to-test distribution (which similarly is the interval between the case report of an infector and an infectee). These distributions may be used as a [proxy for the generation time](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsif.2020.0756) due to the difficulty in estimating the generation time. However, both of these measures are subject to a range of additional biases especially for pathogens that can transmit before the onset of symptoms, such as COVID-19.\nDoes Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?\nWill 3, or more, of the 5 most cited studies (available on the 1st of January 2023 that refer to the generation time/interval of Omicron in the title as returned by a Google Scholar search for generation, time or interval, and Omicron) which estimate the generation interval or a transmission distribution proxy (such as the serial interval, or the test-to-test distribution) conclude (if no conclusion is made a study will be discarded and the next most cited study included) that the mean intrinsic (or realised if not distinguished) generation interval of Omicron is shorter than that of Delta? If fewer than 5 studies are found then the majority conclusion from these studies will be used. \nQuestion composed by Nikos Bosse, Sam Abbott, and Sebastion Funk \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:42:41.176Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-02-01T22:59:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T10:21:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T10:21:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in Pakistan by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8368/fatality-in-pakistan-nuclear-attack-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Which countries would be targeted in a nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nSee also similar questions regarding the chance of a fatality:\n--- \n[North Korea](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8369/fatality-in-n-korea-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Russia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8365/fatality-in-russia-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8364/fatality-in-china-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8367/fatality-in-india-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[US, UK or France](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8366/usa-uk-or-france-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\nWill there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in Pakistan by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in Pakistan from an offensive nuclear detonation between 2021-11-01 and 2030-01-01. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:51:18.538Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any executives be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5768/prison-for-corporate-crooks/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2006 [Jeffrey Skilling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Skilling) was imprisoned for 12 years for his part in the [Enron scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal). \nSince then, there have been very few high profile convictions of corporate bad-actors. (Much ink was spilled over the lack of convictions of bankers during for the [2007-2008 financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008))\nThere have been prison terms for some more junior employees. [Tom Hayes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Hayes_%28trader%29) was imprisoned for his part of the [LIBOR fixing scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor_scandal) although generally executives have escaped sanctions:\nThere are currently outstanding warrants for Wirecard executives, and a former [VW CEO is faces charges of fraud in court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal#Charges_against_Volkswagen_engineering/management). (His imprisonment would result in this question resolving positive)\nWill any executives be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?\nIf any senior executive (current or former) is convicted of crimes relating to actions taken in a corporate capacity (ie ignoring crimes committed which are unrelated to their companies and crimes committed for their own benefit at the expense of their employer (eg insider trading))\nSenior executives are those executives and directors who are named on official filings to their respective stock exchanges.\nThey need to be an executive for a listed company in a major index\n---S&P500 \n---FTSE100 \n---DAX30 \n---CAC40 \n---FTSE MIB \n---Nikkei 225 \nTheir imprisonment must start before 2026\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:28:33.445Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 96,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2611/will-synthetic-biological-weapons-infect-100-people-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [synthetic biological weapon](https://futurism.com/project-spark-ontario-health-data) is a 'living' agent capable of infecting, harming, and/or killing a target host. For the purposes of this question, we focus on human hosts, exclude weapons that consist only of toxins, even if their source is biological: synthetic or otherwise. Nor does it include something like a genetically engineered mosquito carrying natural unmodified malaria. 'Living' means it must either be self-reproducing, like a bacteria or parasite, or like a virus, capable of hijacking a host cell to produce new copies of itself. A synthetic biological agent may be a 'natural' disease causing organism that has at least been genetically engineered (and not merely selectively bred); an entirely new kind of organism, virus, or similar created from scratch; or anything in between those extremes. \nIf the agent is based on an existing disease causing organism, there must be confirmation that the symptoms of infection by the disease causing agent(s) are confirmed by a credible medical source to be different than those of the original, or alternatively that the infectious 'behavior', or capabilities of the agent are confirmed different than the original. This is to exclude infections that are medically indistuingishable from the natural version, which might make cases too difficult to verify. \nThe consequences of infection must be undesireable - ie, not something that could concievably be offered as a product for improving the health of a customer, to improve athletic or cognitive abilities, for recreational use, or any other purpose desireable to those infected. It must be confirmed to be at least capable of adversely impacting the victims' physical or mental health, making them smell in a way that attracts trained dogs, causing them to develop an addiction to some brand of fast food, or some other undesireable effect.\nWill such an agent infect 100 people by 2030? \nThis question resolves positive if a credible medical source announces at least 100 people are confirmed \"infected\" by one or more confirmed synthetic \"biological weapon\"s and that this has occured before 2030. The consequences of infection may or may not be immediately harmful. An agent can even be latent, or cause a delayed onset of disease, as long as the agent is still present and functional 24 hrs after infection (as opposed to being destroyed by the immune system). But if it causes some definite, confirmed harmful effect, and then self-destructs before 24 hrs have passed, that would still count. The infection can result from a terrorist attack, attack on enemy military personnel, an experiment, accident, with the infected persons' consent, or from any other cause.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:32:48.553Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 227,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-02-09T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-11-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a for-profit corporation?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8324/corporation-develops-first-agi/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) asks When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?.\nToday, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. Other possible institutions might be nationalized corporations, governments generally, and non-profit organizations.\nWill the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a for-profit corporation?\nThis question will resolve positively if the AI system that resolves the question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) was developed by a research group from a for-profit corporation.\nIf the respective AI system is developed under a collaborative effort between two or more different institutions, the question resolves positively for both. For example, if OpenAI and UC Berkeley's CHAI had joined forces for the responsible project, this would count for both for-profit corporation and university. \nSister questions\n---[Nationalized organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8325/nationalized-organization-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Non-profit organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8328/non-profit-organization-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Government project develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8327/government-project-develops-first-agi/) \n---[University group develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8326/university-group-develops-first-agi/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.66,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:49:17.788Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8102/times-university-ranking-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In September 2021, the University of St Andrews placed first in the UK on the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2022. This was the first time in the guide's 30-year history that neither Oxford nor Cambridge placed first. [https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-univers…](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-university-rankings-revealed-the-times-league-table-dbxtwgm70)\nWill a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again?\nThis question will resolve positive if neither Oxford nor Cambridges places first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023. It resolves negative if Oxford or Cambridge place first. It will resolve ambiguously if the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide is discontinued. \nThe ranking will be published in late September 2022. Positive resolution will be ascertained by the official publication of the ranking on [https://www.thetimes.co.uk/](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:38:32.791Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-08-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-09-30T22:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By the end of 2029, will the European Union require commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3371/by-the-end-of-2029-will-the-european-union-require-commercially-farmed-fish-to-be-stunned-before-being-slaughtered/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the European Union, an estimated 500 million to 1.7 billion farmed fish were killed for human consumption in 2015, comprising a range of species that are slaughtered in a variety of ways ([CIWF, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf)). Yet, despite the mounting evidence of fish sentience, and the substantial numbers involved in aquaculture, fish are currently excluded from much of the European Slaughter Regulation ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF)). \nThe key principle however, that animals “shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations”, does apply to fish ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF); p.9). Humane slaughter methods should therefore be used, ensuring that fish are effectively stunned prior to killing or killed with a method that guarantees an immediate loss of consciousness.\nThe main farmed species in the EU are: Atlantic salmon, rainbow trout, common carp, European sea bass, gilthead sea bream, turbot, North African catfish, European eel, and Atlantic Bluefin tuna (ordered by greatest tonnage). Humane stunning systems exist or can be developed for all of these, but progress towards this goal varies for each species.([Compassion in World Farming, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf))\nThere is legislation in place to regulate the slaughter of animals in the European Union. Yet, while [Council Regulation 1099/2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF) (on the protection of animals at the time of killing) includes specific requirements for the slaughter of terrestrial species farmed for food, fish are excluded from much of the recommendations (European Union, 2009). As explained therein, this is due to differences in physiology and slaughter context, and less developed understanding of the stunning process for fish. However, it is stated explicitly that the key principle remains applicable to fish, which states that (Article 3(1)):\nAnimals shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations. \nAccordingly, there is a legal requirement for member states to take action to avoid, or at least minimise, the suffering of fish at slaughter.\nAdvocacy groups have suggested using stunning techniques. In 2009, the Animal Health and Welfare panel (EFSA) recommended the “urgent development of commercial stunning methods to induce immediate (or rapid) unconsciousness in… seabream” ([EFSA, 2009](http://edepot.wur.nl/7878), p. 2).\nHowever, the [Humane Slaughter Association (2018)](https://www.hsa.org.uk/downloads/hsafishslaughterreportfeb2018.pdf) points out that further development of humane stunning techniques is required for a greater range of species of finfish than current techniques currently permit, to suit their various rearing environments and to minimise handling and movement prior to death which can cause stress and chemical and physical deterioration in product quality.\nBy the end of 2029, will the European Union enact legislation or a directive that requires commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if by the end of 2029, the European Union enacts legislation or a directive that requires at least 50% of all commercially farmed fish in the European Union to be stunned before slaughter by any method method that renders the fish immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food. Positive resolution requires this legislation or directive to have come into effect before the end of 2029. Methods for stunning include percussive or electrical stunning. Live chilling, or asphyxiation in any manner (e.g., air, CO2) are not qualifying stunning procedures.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.29,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:47:13.767Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 104,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-27T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will MetaMask airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-metamask-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if MetaMask will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.2457102125574960070418198831158786",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.7542897874425039929581801168841214",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.518Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "339",
- "liquidity": "5094.97",
- "tradevolume": "18327.86",
- "stars": 4
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x87Efd7Aa0C1A72B334f865D0A61466B0Cec14B01"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Alaska gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7580/Who-will-win-the-2022-Alaska-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Alaska gubernatorial election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Mike Dunleavy",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bill Walker",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Les Gara",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Natasha Von Imhof",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mark Begich",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:03:16.411Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 13578
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Mike Dunleavy, Bill Walker, Les Gara, Natasha Von Imhof, Mark Begich"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Mohammed bin Salman become the next king of Saudi Arabia?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1603/will-mohammed-bin-salman-become-the-next-king-of-saudi-arabia/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Mohammed bin Salman is the crown prince of Saudia Arabia and heir apparent to replace Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud as king of Saudia Arabia. However his suspected involvement in the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi has raised international outcry, but so far Saudia Arabia has remained adamant about his leadership.\nQuestion: Will Mohammed bin Salman become the next king of Saudi Arabia? \nThe question will resolve as positive if (as indicated by credible media reports) Mohammed bin Salman becomes king of Saudi Arabia.\nIt will resolve as negative if:\n1) Someone else replaces Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud as king of Saudia Arabia.\n2) The monarchy no longer functionally rules Saudia Arabia (for example because of a revolution)\n3) Mohammed bin Salman is unable to assume office (for example because of his death)\n4) Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud remains king of Saudi Arabia till 31/12/2035 (at which time he would be 100 years old).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:27:21.081Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 89,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-04T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-launch-a-person-to-the-moon-before-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Earlier this year US Vice President Mike Pence instructed NASA to launch the first woman and the next man to the surface of the Moon by 2024. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible.\nThe [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_%28spacecraft%29) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars.\n[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17, with the accelerated timeline proposed by the 2020 NASA budget to land a woman on the Moon by 2024.\nWill the Space Launch System successfully launch a human being to the Moon by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon before the end of 2023. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs.\nSee also [When will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon/)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:35:32.618Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 264,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-30T11:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-30T11:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4055/will-the-first-agi-be-based-on-deep-learning/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Deep Learning Book, which is considered by many to be the best reference textbook on the topic, [introduces deep learning](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html),\nThis book is about a solution to [fuzzy ill-defined problems]. This solution is to allow computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts, with each concept defined through its relation to simpler concepts. By gathering knowledge from experience, this approach avoids the need for human operators to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts enables the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones. If we draw a graph showing how these concepts are built on top of each other, the graph is deep, with many layers. For this reason,we call this approach to AI deep learning\nPaul Christiano [has written](https://ai-alignment.com/prosaic-ai-control-b959644d79c2) that future AGI might be based on deep learning principles,\nIt now seems possible that we could build “prosaic” AGI, which can replicate human behavior but doesn’t involve qualitatively new ideas about “how intelligence works:”\nIt’s plausible that a large neural network can replicate “fast” human cognition, and that by coupling it to simple computational mechanisms — short and long-term memory, attention, etc. — we could obtain a human-level computational architecture.\nIt’s plausible that a variant of RL can train this architecture to actually implement human-level cognition. This would likely involve some combination of ingredients like model-based RL, imitation learning, or hierarchical RL. There are a whole bunch of ideas currently on the table and being explored; if you can’t imagine any of these ideas working out, then I feel that’s a failure of imagination (unless you see something I don’t).\nAssume for the purpose of this question, that [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) resolves on some date.\nMetaculus admin(s) and/or community moderator(s) will survey 11 AI researchers whose work they consider relevant and whose work has been cited at least 500 times within the past 365 days according to Google Scholar. We will then ask about the relevant AI system:\nWas the relevant AI system based on Deep Learning, as defined by the 2016 version of the [Deep Learning Book](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html)?\nRespondents will be requested to submit only one of the following responses:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\n--- \nAt least a significant portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nOnly a minor portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nNo portion, or only a trivial portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nI don't know\nThen the question resolves positively if a majority of surveyed experts who don't respond \"I don't know\" respond as follows:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\nThe question resolves ambiguously if a majority of experts respond \"I don't know\".\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:00:20.317Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 150,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-07T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-12-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will lepton universality be falsified before 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6948/the-death-of-lepton-universality/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Standard Model of particle physics](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Standard_Model) is the most complete description of physical phenomena not involving gravity known to date. It accommodates all known fundamental particles and explains their interactions [in a compact way](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Mathematical_formulation_of_the_Standard_Model#/Lagrangian_formalism).\nOne of its features is lepton universality, which implies that the electron, the muon, and the tau particle couple with the same strength to the particles responsible for the electroweak force.\nA [recent paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.11769) from the LHCb collaboration studying the decay of mesons has found evidence against lepton universality at the level.\nAnomalies like this one [have happened before](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/750_GeV_diphoton_excess) in the LHC, so [it's not clear](https://resonaances.blogspot.com/2021/03/thoughts-on-rk.html) the result will survive new incoming data. The gold standard for discovery in particle physics is conventionally taken to be .\nWill lepton universality be falsified before 2026?\nThis question resolves positively if a peer reviewed paper is published before 2025/12/31 claiming to have found evidence at the level or greater that lepton universality is violated in nature.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:57:22.245Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 59,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-06T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-30T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/685/will-the-us-get-rid-of-the-penny-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "If you haven’t seen CGP Grey’s [\"Death to Pennies\"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5UT04p5f7U) video, it’s worth the watch. Funny, and mildly enraging. It raises a great question that deserves answering: Why DOES the U.S. Mint continue to produce pennies, year after year?\nAfter all, it [costs more to mint](http://time.com/money/4618271/penny-cost-make-worth/) these coins than they’re worth as currency. \nYou can’t use them in vending machines, parking meters or arcades.\nThey accumulate in jars and slow transactions.\nYes, technically, you can throw them in a fountain and make wishes on them. And they have more intrinsic value than, say, Bitcoins. But they’re also choking hazards. Per [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/children-and-choking-hazards/):\nCoins, especially pennies, are a major choking hazard and since adults rarely pick them up, they are plentiful on the ground for children.\nMany people have had enough. Last April, U.S. Senators John McCain and Mike Enzi reintroduced a piece of legislation called the Currency Optimization, Innovation, and National Savings Act (a.k.a. the COINS Act), which would have finally put the penny in a well-deserved grave and saved $16 billion to boot.\n[AOL reported](https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/04/02/two-senators-announce-plan-to-eliminate-penny-replace-dollar-bi/22022666/) that\nAlthough it is unclear why that legislation did not pass, the Wall Street Journal pointed out in 2013 that, according to the Federal Reserve, dollar coins were so unpopular that about $1.4 billion worth of them had been produced but were not being used.\nAt some point, our elected officials will clearly get it together and bury the penny. But when? Specifically, will the U.S. stop minting pennies before 2025?\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:15:39.938Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 474,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8882/2022-hottest-year-on-record/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5916/will-2021-be-the-hottest-year-on-record/) \nAccording to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth's average global surface temperature in 2019 was the [“...second warmest since modern record-keeping began in 1880”](https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2945/nasa-noaa-analyses-reveal-2019-second-warmest-year-on-record/) and that this continues the planet's long-term warming trend, with the last five years being the warmest of the past 140 years. Through 2020, the hottest year on record is 2016.\nWill 2022 be the hottest year on record?\nThis question will resolve positively if 2022 is the hottest year on record according to [NASA's GISS Surface Temperature Analysis](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/). In the event that there is a statistical tie with a previous year, this question will resolve negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:16:58.865Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 337,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-30T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Missouri Democratic Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7206/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Lucas Kunce",
- "probability": 0.6857142857142856,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Scott Sifton",
- "probability": 0.26666666666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Quinton Lucas",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chris Koster",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Claire McCaskill",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jay Nixon",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brian Williams",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:57:56.362Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 41888
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Lucas Kunce, Scott Sifton, Quinton Lucas, Chris Koster, Claire McCaskill, Jay Nixon, Brian Williams"
- },
- {
- "title": "If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8645/first-detonation-accidentalunauthorized/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations:\n\"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\"\n\"In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\"\n\"In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.\"\nThe only non-test nuclear detonations as of 2021 were deliberate detonations on Japan in 1945. However there have been [several opportunities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls) where inadvertent and deliberate launches had nearly occurred. Inadvertent launches could also occur if weapons facilities fall out of maintenance, if subordinates disobey the chain of command, or if non-state actors infiltrate a nuclear weapons facility (similar to the [2012 Plowshares protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plowshares_movement#Recent_actions)). Understanding which type of detonation are most likely to precipitate a conflict may help us understand which kinds of risks are most urgent, as well as which kinds of conflicts might develop.\nIf there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?\nThis question will resolve positively if there is at least 1 non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon between this question opening and 2050-01-01, and the first detonation in this period was accidental or unauthorised, as defined above. This could include a non-state actor detonating a weapon that was owned by a state actor (though not if officials high in the state's chain of command authorized the non-state actor to do this; that would be considered a deliberate detonation).\nIf there is no non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon during this period, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nA detonation will be considered \"a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon\" if the detonation is not a test detonation or peaceful nuclear explosion (see the fine print), a country owned the weapon, and credible sources generally agree on which country owned the nuclear weapon. This can include detonations by non-state actors who have acquired a state's nuclear weapon.\nResolution will come from official statements by the heads of government or military, declassified or leaked documents, or from analysis of non-government nuclear/military experts. In the case there is significant ambiguity or disagreement about the precipitating events of the first nuclear detonation, resolution may be delayed until 2105-01-01, or resolve ambiguously at the discretion of Metaculus admins.\nRelated questions\n--- \n[If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be inadvertent?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8644/first-detonation-by-2050-inadvertent/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7455/unauthorised-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7454/inadvertent-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7407/deliberate-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.31,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.69,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:05:25.568Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8609/10-agricul-drop-leading-to-400m-fatalities/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Another question in this tournament asks [Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8540/global-agricultural-shortfall-by-2024/). \n[Denkenberger & Pearce (2016)](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs13753-016-0097-2.pdf) write:\n\"The uncertainty in the number of fatalities due to a 10% agricultural shortfall is very large. On the optimistic extreme, there could be aggressive government support or charity such that the vast majority of the global poor could generally afford sufficient food. If the crisis were only a year or two, loans could be feasible, either to poor individuals or poor countries. The necessary conservation (less waste, less food to animals, and so on) in the developed countries could be achieved by higher prices or rationing. However, even if mass starvation is averted, generally there would be more malnutrition and increasing susceptibility to disease. The poor would be less able to afford other lifesaving measures, and a pandemic would be more likely. Even if food aid is available, it may not be possible to get the food to the people who need it. Therefore, near zero mortality is unlikely. At the same time, even with no catastrophe, 6.5 million people die of hunger-related diseases per year (UNICEF 2006). On the other extreme, there could be food export restrictions or bans, as implemented by India, Vietnam, Egypt, and China in 2008 (Helfand 2013) when the situation was much less serious. This hoarding on a country level could also be coupled with hoarding on an individual level. This could dramatically reduce the food supply available to poor people.\nArmed conflict could be in some countries’ best interest, which could also aggravate famine (Keller 1992; Waldman 2001; Goodhand 2003). These wars could even evolve into nuclear conflict, which would further impact food supplies.\"\nIf there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?\nThis question conditions on there being a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, using the same specification as in [a previous question](LINK) (except that here the year 2030 is used instead of 2024[1]). That is, the question resolves ambiguously if that condition isn't met. As noted in that previous question, this could be caused either by nuclear conflict or by something else.\nThe question resolves positively if: \n1-- \nThe above condition is met\n2-- \nAt least three credible sources state or estimate that, within 5 years of the end of the year in which the first 10% shortfall by 2030 occurs, more than 400 million fatalities were caused by that shortfall. \nFor example, if the shortfall occurs in 2027, this question is about whether that causes >400m fatalities by the end of 2032.\nIf a source gives a range as its estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used as its estimate. \nSee also:\n--- \n[Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >1m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8398/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >1b fatalities within 10 years of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[Will the first nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations cause >4b fatalities within 10 years of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\nFor simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess credible sources on what fatalities should be considered to be \"caused\" by the 10% shortfall. For example, if the 10% shortfall is followed by armed conflict, no attempt will be made to second-guess what credible sources say about whether the fatalities caused by that armed conflict should be considered to be ultimately caused by the 10% shortfall.\n[1] The reason for using 2030 rather than 2024 for this question is that the fatalities and discussion of them may occur on a several-year delay from the actual shortfall. It therefore seemed unwise to force this question to resolve by 2024, and hence best to make this part of the long-term rather than calibration tournament. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.41,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:02:45.111Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-06-30T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4919/deworming-recommended-by-givewell-by-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to GiveWell's [Cost-Effectiveness Analysis](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zLmPuddUmKsy3v55AfG_e1Quk-ngDdNzW-FDx0T-Y94) (CEA), mass deworming ranks among the very best global health interventions. The evidence for deworming comes primarily from a [single study](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21428), which showed large economic effects which were present a full decade after treatment. However, other studies have shown [little](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X%2816%2930242-X/fulltext) to [no effect](https://www.cochrane.org/CD000371/INFECTN_deworming-school-children-low-and-middle-income-countries) of mass deworming on weight, cognitive ability, school attendance or other health outcomes, and the weight placed on the initial paper has proved [controversial](https://www.vox.com/2015/7/24/9031909/worm-wars-explained).\nIn GiveWell's CEA, deworming benefits are modeled as being entirely due to long-term economic effects like those seen in the study mentioned above. Despite being heavily discounted due to concerns about replicability, in expectation these economic effects are expected to dominate the short term health effects of the interventions.\nGivewell's position is explained, in detail, in the following two blog posts:\n--- \n[Why I mostly believe in Worms](https://blog.givewell.org/2016/12/06/why-i-mostly-believe-in-worms/)\n--- \n[How thin the reed](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/01/04/how-thin-the-reed-generalizing-from-worms-at-work/)\nSome more information is available in [this](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/deworming) evidence overview, written by GiveWell, which cites several papers, and [this](https://www.evidenceaction.org/a-summary-of-the-deworming-evidence-base/) evidence overview, which was written by Evidence Action. While Evidence Action does currently run a deworming programme, they have proved [capable](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/6/7/18654620/evidence-action-no-lean-season-givewell) of changing their minds on programmes when the evidence changes.\nCurrently, GiveWell lists seven [top charities](), of which four are deworming programmes.\nAt the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?\n--- \nResolution will be according to the GiveWell [website](https://www.givewell.org/) on 2026/01/01.\n--- \nIf GiveWell no longer maintains a list of \"top charities\", but allows donors to donate funds which will be re-granted at GiveWell's discretion, this question resolves positively if at least 10% of these regrants go to deworming charities in the year 2025.\n--- \n\"Mass deworming\" is taken to mean treating all or almost all of the individuals in a group for parasitic worms, without testing to see whether they have them. This is common practice due to the low cost and excellent safety profile of deworming medication, as well as the relative expense of testing.\n--- \nIf a charity has multiple programmes, but GiveWell restricts its donations to a particular programme, that programme is considered to be the \"primary intervention\" for the purposes of resolution. Otherwise, whichever intervention the organisation spends most on is considered the \"primary intervention\".\n--- \nIf deworming medication is administered in addition to something else, for example a vaccine or vitamin supplement, at the same time, then whether \"deworming\" is the primary intervention will be determined by whether the majority of the value of the programme comes from deworming, according to GiveWell's CEA.\n--- \nIf GiveWell ceases to exist in a similar form, such that neither of the conditions for positive resolution above make sense, this question resolves ambiguously.\n--- \nSome of the text in this question has been adapted from [this](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FAA22RbfgC68fRnRs/if-you-mostly-believe-in-worms-what-should-you-think-about) EA forum post, by the same author.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:13:36.677Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 88,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T16:41:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the price of Bitcoin ($BTC) be on March 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-price-of-bitcoin-btc-be-on-march-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a scalar market on what the price of Bitcoin ($BTC) will be on March 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. The lower bound for this market is $20,000.00, and the upper bound is $60,000.00. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the coin’s listed price on its official CoinGecko page https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin. This market will resolve according to the “C” (aka closing price) listed for the candle titled “Tue 01 March 2022, 12:00:00”, with the “Price” tab selected, in the Eastern Time Zone. Note, this 12:00:00 candle lists the opening price for 11:30:00 AM ET and the closing price for 12:00:00 PM ET. To allow for updates, this market will resolve on the number listed for the referenced candle at exactly 12:25:00 PM ET, on the resolution day. (To see the candlestick close price, click the candlestick icon, and observe the number after the “C:” when you hover over a candlestick for a given time period.) \n\nYou can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short Token price corresponds with the relevant cryptocurrency’s price. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value’s position within the upper and lower bound, if the final value is between these bounds. But if the final outcome value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Token is capped at $1 and $0.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Long",
- "probability": "0.5659605341938952258474629257404995",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Short",
- "probability": "0.4340394658061047741525370742595005",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.517Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "52",
- "liquidity": "1000.00",
- "tradevolume": "1004.71",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x838b58ab261F5F9034816DCb37AD78174a643d22"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Long, Short"
- },
- {
- "title": "Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/255/pandemic-series-a-devastating-bioterror-attack-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Bioterrorism is a significant and growing threat: in principle, infection of a single person with the right pathogen could create a devastating wave of sickness and death. \nThus far, the world has been largely spared this horror. The most prominent attempts have probably been the Aum Shirinkyo cult, which made [multiple attempts](http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/atxchapter3.pdf) at biological attacks, including unsuccessful anthrax attacks. \nThe failure of Aum Shirinkyo suggests that creating a large-scale attack is quite difficult even with significant resources and the participation of trained scientists. On the other hand, widespread availability of information, better equipment, and new techniques developed over the past 20 years may make it easier.\nHere we focus on the possibility of a very large-scale attack, such as could be caused by release of a highly transmissible pathogen such as influenza, smallpox, etc.\nBy 2025 will a bioterror attack occur in which more than 500K total worldwide cases or 100K worldwide fatalities are reported? \nHere we consider only attacks in which a pathogen infects humans (rather than including toxins even if they are biologically generated such as for botulism), and we consider numbers from the WHO, CDC, or other government source.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:08:49.677Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 162,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2017-12-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1646/will-the-human-condition-change-fundamentally-before-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Nick Bostrom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Bostrom), philosopher and Founding Director of the [Future of Humanity Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_of_Humanity_Institute) at the University of Oxford, [argues](https://youtu.be/YBAxrR3RBSs) that only two events since the dawn of humanity have fundamentally changed the human condition: the Agricultural Revolution that took place approximately 10,000 years ago, and the Industrial Revolution which took place from roughly 1760-1840. Bostrom states the following:\n\"So what kind of thing would count as a fundamental change in the human condition? \n\"You could argue that if we look back over history, there has really only been two events that have fundamentally changed the human condition, the first being [the Agricultural Revolution some 10,000 or 12,000 years ago in Mesopotamia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neolithic_Revolution), where we transitioned from being hunter-gatherers, small bands roaming around, to settling into cities, growing, domesticating crops and animals. With that you get social stratification, if there is a lot of grain, you could have a king or pharaoh who extracts the surplus, you can have standing armies, you can have war, you can have higher population densities, specialisation of labour, and from that point on, innovation grows much faster and population grows faster as well as a result.\n\"The second fundamental change in the human condition, [Industrial Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution), where for the first time, you have the rate of economic and technological growth outstripping population growth, and so only when this happens can you have an increase in average income. Before that, there was technological growth and economic growth, but the economy grew 10%, the population grew 10%, everybody's still in a [Malthusian condition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusianism).\"\nBostrom further argues that there are relatively few potential technologies that could have the same kind of impact, and that perhaps foremost among them is [machine intelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence).\nThe kind of discontinuity in the human condition seen as a result of the agricultural and industrial revolutions is substantial; human civilisation became markedly more complex, acquired fundamentally new abilities, and the human experience became radically different after each of these events.\nThe question we ask here is: Before January 1 2100, will the human condition change fundamentally to at least roughly the same extent that it did after the agricultural and industrial revolutions?\n\"The human condition,\" for the purposes of this question, is the general level of social complexity, economic productivity, and ability to manipulate physical reality humanity has achieved at the civilisational level. \nThe discontinuity can be in either direction - though it seems improbable that Metaculus would continue to exist if humanity were to revert to a pre-industrial state.\nEvents that may occur this century, but which do not appear to represent a discontinuity of approximately the same degree as the agricultural and industrial revolutions, include (among other things) the establishment of bases or settlements on other bodies in the solar system, the achievement of modest to moderate life extension (e.g. an additional 10 to 30 years of life) or a significant but not radical increase in economic productivity.\nResolution\nIf at any time after the date of 2025-01-01 both the community and Metaculus predictions are >= 98% or <= 2%, with 80% probability, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively. With 20% probability, the question resolves according to a committee of 5 Metaculus admins, who will vote yes or no (not ambiguous), and will unmake their respective predictions so that they do not gain or lose points on the question.\nNote that the admins will be voting on whether the qualifying event has already happened, not whether they believe it will happen; for example, if the probability goes to 99% because a super-powerful AI seems immininent within 10 years, but it has not actually happened yet, the committee should unanimously vote no.\nIf the question has not resolved by January 1 2100, it resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:29:22.194Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 235,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-05T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Somerton Man's DNA match that of \"Jestyn's\" family?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7288/somerton-man-father-of-jestyns-son/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On 1 December 1948, a man was found dead on Somerton Beach in Adelaide. Of all the mysterious details of the case - [including missing socks, another man's name on the tags of his clothing, speculated links to World War 2 spying operations, allegations of marrying for DNA, potential digitalis poisoning and the thighs of a ballet dancer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamam_Shud_case) - the most interesting was a slip of paper. \nDuring the inquest, conducted in June 1949, a torn scrap of paper with the words \"Tamam Shud\" printed on it was found in a hidden pocket in the man's trousers. Persian for \"The End\", these words conclude the Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam, a book of poetry. When the find was reported, a man handed in a copy of the book that he had found dropped through the open window in the back of his car. \nThe \"Tamam Shud\" scrap had been torn from this book, which contained a series of letters, perhaps a secret code, the word \"JEstyn\" and a phone number. The phone number belonged to Jessica \"Jestyn\" Thomson. Thomson lived 400 metres north of where the Somerton Man's body was found. When shown the plaster bust of the Somerton Man, she almost fainted - and then claimed to not recognise him. \nJess Thomson's son Robin was born in July 1947. Robin apparently shares two unusual genetic features with the Somerton Man: a larger upper-ear hollow than lower-ear hollow and hypodontia of the incisors. \nBoth Jess and Robin Thomson are now deceased, but [Robin Thomson's daughter Rachel Egan has volunteered her DNA to be compared to that of the Somerton Man to see if he may be her grandfather.](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-15/a-marriage-and-a-mystery-somerton-man-romantic-twist/11377458) \nAs well as the possibility that there is no match, there is also the risk that not enough DNA is recovered as the Somerton Man's body was embalmed. [The remains, exhumed in May 2021, are in \"reasonable\" condition but there is no timeframe for results to be announced.](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-20/somerton-man-forensic-process-following-exhumation/100150868) \nIf there is no positive confirmation by 31 December 2025, this question resolves negative. If no test is performed, this question resolves ambiguous. \nWill the Somerton Man's DNA match that of \"Jestyn's\" family? (\"Tamam Shud\" case)\nForensic Science SA or another scientific authority confirms that Rachel Egan or another member of the Thomson family is related to the Somerton Man, or says that such a relation is over 50% likely.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.64,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:08:37.368Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-30T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6462/whip-ban-by-2026-melbourne-cup/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles).\nIn Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and \"at the jockey's discretion\" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html).\nA jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for \"overuse of the whip\" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html).\nThe Royal Society for the Protection of Animals Victoria (RSPCA Victoria) [has called for a total whip ban in horse racing](https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-rspca-victoria-call-for-total-whip-ban-in-horseracing-tiger-moth/3d8e6235-35b8-4f60-8419-1dc68b1764c8). Two papers [by Professor Paul McGreevy and colleagues at the University of Sydney](https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/11/12/first-conclusive-evidence-horses-hurt-by-whips--whips-don-t-aid-.html) find that horses feel as much pain when whipped as a human would and that whipping during races does not make the races safer, faster or fairer. McGreevy \"would not be surprised\" if whipping is phased out in Australian racing within two years.\nRacing Victoria is considering for 2021 [a reform that will reduce, but not eliminate, the number of whip strikes permitted in a race](https://www.rspcasa.org.au/horse-racing-whip-reform/). \n[Supporters of the whip](https://www.racing.com/news/2020-09-08/comment-whip-ban-push-a-step-too-far#/) argue that padded whips have \"minimal impact\", whipping has been a \"vital tool of the sport since its inception\" and whipping allows for a horse to be \"fully tested\".\nWill the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?\nWill the use of whips, including padded whips, be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup?\nA rule that allows for the use of the whip only \"in the case of an emergency\" or otherwise for safety reasons counts as a ban. \nThis question resolves positively provided the use of the whip is banned for one or more Melbourne Cups between now and the end of 2026, even if the ban is rescinded in time for the 2026 Cup. \nIf no Melbourne Cup takes place in 2026, and whips have not been banned beforehand, this resolves negatively. \nChanges to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the \"Melbourne Cup\", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, and the whip is banned for all of them. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:43:36.397Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-08T13:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-30T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-11-08T13:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Texas Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7240/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Texas.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Greg Abbott",
- "probability": 0.8796296296296295,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Allen West",
- "probability": 0.046296296296296294,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Don Huffines",
- "probability": 0.018518518518518517,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chad Prather",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Matthew McConaughey",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dan Crenshaw",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joe Straus",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "George P. Bush",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dan Patrick",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:58:26.144Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 763698
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Greg Abbott, Allen West, Don Huffines, Chad Prather, Matthew McConaughey, Dan Crenshaw, Joe Straus, George P. Bush, Dan Patrick"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be over 175,000 new COVID-19 cases on Wednesday in the US?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/CASE-134",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If the number of new cases of COVID-19 reported for February 09, 2022, is greater than 175,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Revisions to the Underlying after the Expiration time on the Expiration Date for any reason will not be considered for Market Resolution. Please see CASE in the Rulebook for more details.\n\nThis market will expire the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of data for February 09, 2022 or February 16, 2022. . The resolution source is: The number of new cases of COVID-19 published in the CDC’s “Trends in Number of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US Reported to CDC,” which can be found in the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker. (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.93,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.06999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.782Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "yes_bid": 90,
- "yes_ask": 93,
- "spread": 3,
- "shares_volume": 8124
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "With an international nuclear weapons ban in place, will a country that has nuclear weapons actually give them up by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In July 2017, 122 member states of the United Nations [adopted a ban](http://time.com/4848586/un-nuclear-weapons-ban-treaty/) on nuclear weapons. The participating states agreed to \"never under any circumstances to develop, test, produce, manufacture, otherwise acquire, possess or stockpile nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.\" \nNotably, [none of the nations](http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/27/politics/un-nuclear-ban-boycott/) that currently possess nuclear weapons participated in the negotiations of the ban or adopted the document.\nSeveral treaties prior to this aimed to curb the development of nuclear weapons, notably the 1968 [Non-Proliferation Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons) (NPT), which sought to limit nuclear development beyond five nuclear powers - the U.S., Russia, China, the U.K., and France.\nArguments against nuclear disarmament typically cite the principle of [deterrence](http://americanhistory.si.edu/subs/history/timeline/different/nuclear_deterrence.html), that the possession of nuclear weapons by some states precludes the development or use of weapons by other states, due to the threat of nuclear retaliation. Proponents of the ban argue that previous efforts have not prevented states such as North Korea from pursuing nuclear programs, and that [disarmament, rather than deterrence](http://thebulletin.org/controversial-ban-and-long-game-delegitimize-nuclear-weapons10934), is the best way to prevent nuclear war.\nIt's not unprecedented for states to completely disarm, however. South Africa [dismantled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Dismantling) its nuclear weapons beginning in 1989 and joined the NPT as a non-nuclear state. Three former Soviet republics, previously part of a nuclear-capable nation, also joined the NPT as non-nuclear states.\nWill a state that currently possesses nuclear weapons voluntarily dismantle their stockpile, abandon their nuclear program, and join the UN ban on nuclear weapons by 2035?\nThis question will resolve if one of the nations currently known to possess operational nuclear weapons (U.S., China, Russia, U.K., France, Israel, India, Pakistan, or North Korea) is certified by the International Atomic Energy Agency to have dismantled all nuclear devices and signs the 2017 UN ban on nuclear weapons on or before Jan 1, 2035.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:11:45.281Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 282,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-07-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7451/deadly-clash-between-china-and-india/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As discussed in [a previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4683/will-the-border-conflict-between-india-and-china-escalate-to-a-deadly-clash-involving-gunfire-or-explosives-before-2021/):\n\"The border between India and China has been disputed since at least the 1962 Sino-Indian war. Despite the ceasefire declared by China ending the war the same year and diplomatic efforts to define a border, it seems that the issue is still not settled to both sides’ satisfaction. Over the years, tensions have continued to persist resulting in incidents such as clashes in 1967 and a military standoff in 2017.\n[In 2020], tensions have once again flared. Beginning in early May, clashes along the border between Chinese and Indian military forces resulted in some injuries, but no deaths. This changed on the night of June 15th when a deadly brawl broke out in the Galwan Valley near China’s eastern border with India. Each side disagrees about what exactly transpired, but Indian officials report that 20 of their soldiers died, some during the clash and some later after succumbing to their injuries. China has not reported how many of their soldiers died.\nOne unusual aspect of these clashes is that, so far, no shots have been fired and all deaths and injuries have been the result of fisticuffs, clubs (sometimes embellished with nails and barbed wire), stone-pelting, and falls from cliffs. While India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has confirmed that all border troops carry arms, a 1996 agreement between India and China states that: \"With a view to preventing dangerous military activities along the line of actual control in the India-China border areas… Neither side shall open fire, cause bio-degradation, use hazardous chemicals, conduct blast operations or hunt with guns or explosives within two kilometres from the line of actual control.\"\nThis question adapts that previous question to consider what might happen by 2024 and in any location (not necessarily just near the China-India border).\nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2024?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable Chinese and Indian forces. \n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2023-12-31 UTC.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:15:21.025Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 143,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T23:55:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T23:55:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on Dec 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8118/solana-stays-a-top-10-cryptocurrency-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Solana is a proof-of-stake cryptocurrency that gained significantly in popularity (and market cap) in 2021 due to its high transaction capacity.\nAt time of writing (1/2022), it is the #7 cryptocurrency by market cap – [$43b USD](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/solana/) – per [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/). For reference, the #10 cryptocurrency is [Polkadot](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/polkadot-new/) (DOT), with $25b USD market cap.\nWill Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on Dec 31, 2022?\nPer [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/), Solana (SOL) is ranked within the top-10 cryptocurrencies, as determined by market cap on Dec 31, 2022.\nIf Solana drops below the top-10 at some point before Dec 31, 2022, but is within the top-10 at time of resolution on Dec 31, 2022, then this question still resolves positively. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.64,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:39:14.084Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5509/detection-of-phosphine-in-venus-atmosphere/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[In September 2020, it was announced that phosphine, a potential biomarker, had been detected in the atmosphere of Venus.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-1174-4) There is no known abiotic source of phosphine on Venus that could explain the presence of the substance there in the concentrations detected (~20 ppb).\nHowever, [a recent independent re-analysis of the ALMA data claims that data provide no statistical evidence for phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus](https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.09761).\nThere is also a plethora of other work discussed at [Centauri Dreams](https://www.centauri-dreams.org/2020/10/22/back-into-the-clouds-of-venus/).\nWill detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive if an independent observation done after September 2020 will unambiguously confirm presence of phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus. We will accept any credible independent detection with significance above 5 sigma, but only if the authors of the independent observation will claim that their study indeed generally reproduces the original findings. The study must be published at least as pre-print by 2023.\nThe question will resolve negative if no such reproduction is made by 2023 or the authors of the original study agree that there is no significant abundance of phosphine in the Venus atmosphere.\nRelated question:\n[Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:23:54.241Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 163,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-29T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will more than 50% of US adults own a personal augmented reality device by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8516/50-of-us-adults-own-ar-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Merriam-Webster Dictionary [defines augmented reality (AR) as](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/augmented%20reality)\nan enhanced version of reality created by the use of technology to overlay digital information on an image of something being viewed through a device (such as a smartphone camera)\nSome expect AR devices to be much more prevalent in the future. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about augmented reality in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nBy 2050 pretty much everyone will be wearing smart glasses for augmented reality, and eventually these glasses will replace a lot of phones (no one will carry a wallet in 2050).\nAccording to a PEW survey, [85% of US adults said they owned a smartphone in 2021](https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile/).\nWill more than 50% of US adults own a personal augmented reality device by 2050?\nThis resolves positively if anytime before January 1, 2050, a credible survey of adults in the US suggests that more than 50% of US adults own any type of personal augmented reality device.\nFor the purposes of this question, a personal augmented reality device is defined as one which is portable and intended to accompany a person from place to place, and whose primary use is in augmented reality functions. \"Augmented reality functions\" are defined as producing digital information and images overlaid over the user's view of their real environment, which update in real time as the user moves and interacts with the digital and physical environment. A handheld smartphone which is occasionally used as an augmented reality device would not qualify (as AR is not its primary use).\nWhere there is reason to believe a survey captures a significant number of devices that do not qualify for question resolution the admins shall use their best judgement or use an alternate survey or method if available, or resolve the question as ambiguous at their discretion.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.43999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:57:01.608Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T21:14:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-02-01T21:14:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many votes to confirm Robert Califf as FDA commissioner by April 15?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7700/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Robert-Califf-as-FDA-commissioner-by-April-15",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Robert Califf (the \"Nominee\") to be Commissioner of Food and Drugs at the Department of Health and Human Services (the \"Office\").\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; or should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be formally communicated to the United States Senate; the contract identifying the range \"46 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"63 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. The official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source, shall be used to resolve this market. Provided that, once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by any Senator to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/15/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "46 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.5188679245283018,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "47 or 48",
- "probability": 0.037735849056603765,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "49 or 50",
- "probability": 0.15094339622641506,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "51 or 52",
- "probability": 0.15094339622641506,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "53 or 54",
- "probability": 0.047169811320754707,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "55 or 56",
- "probability": 0.047169811320754707,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "57 or 58",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150941,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "59 or 60",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150941,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "61 or 62",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150941,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "63 or more",
- "probability": 0.018867924528301883,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:07:20.537Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 5921
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "46 or fewer, 47 or 48, 49 or 50, 51 or 52, 53 or 54, 55 or 56, 57 or 58, 59 or 60, 61 or 62, 63 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Russia further invades Ukraine by EOY 2022",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A261",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-01-18T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8327/government-project-develops-first-agi/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) asks When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?.\nToday, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. Other possible institutions might be nationalized corporations, governments generally, and non-profit organizations.\nWill the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?\nThis question will resolve positively if the AI system that resolves the question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) was developed by a research group working for a government project.\nIf the respective AI system is developed under a collaborative effort between two or more different institutions, the question resolves positively for both. For example, if OpenAI and UC Berkeley's CHAI had joined forces for the responsible project, this would count for both for-profit corporation and university. \nSister questions\n---[Nationalized organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8325/nationalized-organization-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Non-profit organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8328/non-profit-organization-develops-first-agi/) \n---[University group develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8326/university-group-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Corporation develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8324/corporation-develops-first-agi/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:49:34.434Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 34,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the CPTPP Commission commence the accession process for China to join the CPTPP by January 4, 2023?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/CPTPP-001",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If the CPTPP Commission issues a statement that indicates that the accession process for the People's Republic of China to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership has been formally commenced and that a formal accession working group has been or will be established, then the Contract resolves to Yes. Else, the Contract resolves to No.\n\nPlease see CPTPP in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions, as well as examples of past statements.. The resolution source is: English language versions of statements by the CPTPP Commission. The best repository of CPTPP Commission statements is available from the Japanese government. To find English-language versions on the website, go to the link above, click on a given year (e.g. \"2021 年\") then click on \"英文\", which means \"English\" in Japanese. These instructions are provided for convenience only. Please see CPTPP in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions. (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "yes_bid": 4,
- "yes_ask": 6,
- "spread": 2,
- "shares_volume": 4206
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will UST (TerraUSD) lose its peg by March 1st?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-ust-terrausd-lose-its-peg-by-march-1st",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of TerraUSD (UST) as shown on Coingecko is below $0.90 for 5 or more continuous hours within the market timeframe, and to \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThis market timeframe spans from January 28 2022 (12:00:00 PM ET) to the resolution time, March 1 2022 (11:59:59 PM ET). The resolution source for this market will be https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/terra-usd, and if unavailable, https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/terrausd/.\n\nTo resolve this market, Coingecko's 30min candlestick high prices will be used. \"Continuously for 5 hours\" means all 30 minute candles during the 5 hour timeframe must have high (\"H:\") prices lower than $0.900000.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.03893108331904315174369020404767891",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9610689166809568482563097959523211",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.517Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "583",
- "liquidity": "12759.03",
- "tradevolume": "61892.00",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x1cb15c5BD56b5026190536515378cd81ccc5d5B7"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a third LIGO detector be built in India by 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1536/will-a-third-ligo-detector-be-built-in-india-by-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/) (LIGO) has been responsible for some tremendously exciting science this decade.\n---On [September 14, 2015](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/news/ligo20160211), LIGO detected (through gravitational waves) the merger of two black holes billions of light years away. \n---This triumph opened a new era of [gravitational wave astronomy](https://www.space.com/39162-gravitational-waves-new-era-of-astronomy-2017.html), giving us a radical new tool to probe the cosmos. \n---LIGO and friends (like VIRGO in Europe) have since seen other black hole mash-ups and even, amazingly, the smashing of [2 neutron stars](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/16/557557544/astronomers-strike-gravitational-gold-in-colliding-neutron-stars). \n---The engineering required to make this observatory hop is [just ridiculous](http://www.kavlifoundation.org/how-ligo-works). \nHowever, per astrophysicist Ethan Siegel, LIGO [misses ~100,000 black hole mergers every year](https://medium.com/starts-with-a-bang/ligo-misses-100-000-black-hole-mergers-a-year-d3184f5d193a). Whoa! \nWe need backup, apparently!\nWell, help may soon be on the way, in the form of another LIGO detector under construction in India. [LIGO-India](http://www.gw-indigo.org/tiki-index.php?page=LIGO-India) \"is a planned advanced gravitational-wave observatory to be located in India as part of the worldwide network.\" Possible benefits include:\nAdding a new detector to the existing network will increase the expected event rates, and will boost the detection confidence of new sources (by increasing the sensitivity, sky coverage and duty cycle of the network). But the dramatic improvement from LIGO-India would come in the ability of localizing GW sources in the sky. Sky-location of the GW sources is computed by combining data from geographically separated detectors ('aperture synthesis'). Adding a new detector in India, geographically well separated from the existing LIGO-Virgo detector array, will dramatically improve the source-localization accuracies (5 to 10 times), thus enabling us to use GW observations as an excellent astronomical tool.\nLIGO-India is set to be built [by 2025](https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/technology/a-new-ligo-gravitational-wave-detector-to-be-built-in-india-by-2025/article22149855.ece). That's 2 years before our question's deadline. But delays on massive science projects happen with some frequency. (Ahem, [Elon Musk](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2018/06/06/elon-musk-has-been-missing-deadlines-since-he-was-a-kid/). Ahem, [James Webb Telescope](https://www.space.com/41016-nasa-delays-james-webb-space-telescope-2021.html).)\nCan the LIGO-India team make their deadline (given a 2 year fudge factor) and get their LIGO operational (defined taking test data demonstrating a sensitivity within a factor of 10 of the instrument's specified sensitivity) by 12/31/27?\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:25:51.678Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 100,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-08T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 31 December 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9582/will-us-troops-move-into-ukraine-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On 25 January 2022, US President Joe Biden [said](https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-ukraine-crisis/biden-warns-putin-with-sanctions-as-west-steps-up-ukraine-defenses-idUKKBN2K00GT), \"There is not going to be any American forces moving into Ukraine.\" As of January 24, 2022, [TIME reported](https://time.com/6141675/us-troops-alert-ukraine/) that 200 US troops were in the country, as members of the Florida National Guard are training Ukrainian forces. According to TIME's report:\nPentagon spokesman John Kirby said up to 8,500 U.S. service members were put on heightened alert for deployment to bolster NATO allies’ eastern defenses should Russia invade. The forces would not be sent to Ukraine, which is not a NATO member, nor take part in any combat roles, Kirby said, but rather serve as reinforcements in places like Poland or Romania to reassure U.S. allies and deter Russian aggression.\nBefore December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?\nThis question will resolve positively if American troops have been moved into Ukraine before December 31, 2022, according to credible media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). For purposes of this question, \"moving into Ukraine\" requires a total of at least 10,000 US troops, wearing US military insignia and under the American banner, being in the territory of Ukraine at a given moment.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:46:19.043Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-29T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be elected to be the next President of France, as a result of the next French presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.168951161",
- "platform": "Betfair",
- "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the start of voting on the day of the 1st round of the election, as well as the start of the 2nd round of voting. Thereafter, the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. Non featured individuals may be added to this market upon request. If more than one election takes place – not including any second round of voting for the first election - then this market will apply to the first election that is held and will be settled on whoever first takes up the office of President of France on a permanent basis thereafter. If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair reserves the right to void this market at its absolute discretion. In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement regarding the election of the next President of France, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Emmanuel Macron",
- "probability": 0.736527531745745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Valerie Pecresse",
- "probability": 0.10264373048797086,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marine Le Pen",
- "probability": 0.05513434666211006,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Eric Zemmour",
- "probability": 0.053602837032607,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jean-Luc Melenchon",
- "probability": 0.01135118901866972,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Christiane Taubira",
- "probability": 0.0012369885469063154,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Francois Asselineau",
- "probability": 0.0030151595830841442,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yanick Jadot",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Edouard Philippe",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
- "probability": 0.0013783586665527517,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Anne Hidalgo",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jean Lassalle",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joachim Son-Forget",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Xavier Bertrand",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Francois Baroin",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bernard Cazeneuve",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Arnaud Montebourg",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ségolène Royal",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Florian Philippot",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nicolas Hulot",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Eric Piolle",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nicolas Sarkozy",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bruno Le Maire",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "François Hollande",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bruno Retailleau",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Michel Barnier",
- "probability": 0.0013400709258151752,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "David Lisnard",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Pierre de Villiers",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Philippe de Villiers",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Gerald Darmanin",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jean Messiha",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jean Casteix",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Najat Vallaud-Belkacem",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "François Ruffin",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Francois Fillon",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Gerard Larcher",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alain Juppe",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Benoit Hamon",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Laurent Wauquiez",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rachida Dati",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Philippe Juvin",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Eric Ciotti",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sandrine Rousseau",
- "probability": 0.0009648510665869262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:00:25.985Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4,
- "volume": 1248951.65
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Emmanuel Macron, Valerie Pecresse, Marine Le Pen, Eric Zemmour, Jean-Luc Melenchon, Christiane Taubira, Francois Asselineau, Yanick Jadot, Edouard Philippe, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Anne Hidalgo, Jean Lassalle, Joachim Son-Forget, Xavier Bertrand, Francois Baroin, Bernard Cazeneuve, Arnaud Montebourg, Ségolène Royal, Florian Philippot, Nicolas Hulot, Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, Eric Piolle, Nicolas Sarkozy, Bruno Le Maire, François Hollande, Bruno Retailleau, Michel Barnier, David Lisnard, Pierre de Villiers, Philippe de Villiers, Gerald Darmanin, Jean Messiha, Jean Casteix, Najat Vallaud-Belkacem, François Ruffin, Francois Fillon, Gerard Larcher, Alain Juppe, Benoit Hamon, Laurent Wauquiez, Rachida Dati, Philippe Juvin, Eric Ciotti, Sandrine Rousseau"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8513/addis-ababa-falls-to-tplf-before-june-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "It has been a little over [one year](https://apnews.com/article/africa-kenya-ethiopia-addis-ababa-abiy-ahmed-bcbd0980e5a1c9af4b55f5f489d83d36) since fighting broke out between Ethiopian federal forces led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and Tigrayan defense forces led by Debretsion Gebremichael following a [disputed regional election](https://www.france24.com/en/20200909-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-defies-pm-abiy-with-illegal-election-1) and [decades of tension](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tigray_War#Background). Ethiopian federal forces initially made substantial gains, including capturing Tigray's capital Mekelle, but these gains have since then been [reversed](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-59151370) — with Tigrayan forces retaking Mekelle in June 2021. Since June, Tigrayan forces have recaptured much of their region and have [advanced into neighboring regions](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/ethiopias-capital-is-under-threat/21806092), namely Amhara and Afar. As of 6 November 2021, Tigrayan forces are [within 200 miles](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/11/06/ethiopia-addis-ababa-tplf/) of Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa. Tigrayan forces have moreover announced an [alliance with other opposition groups](https://apnews.com/article/africa-kenya-ethiopia-abiy-ahmed-jeffrey-feltman-16075161e2badda09eeb50ca07a43840), including the Oromo Liberation Army. Ethiopia has recently [declared a state of emergency, asked citizens to take up arms to defend the capital, and rounded up ethnic Tigrayans](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/05/world/africa/ethiopia-tigray-eight-groups.html). \nWill Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 2022?\nResolves positive if at least two credible media reports (AP, Reuters, BBC, NYT, WaPo, WSJ, FT) indicate that at any time before June 1, 2022:\n--- \nthe National Palace in Addis Ababa is occupied by armed forces aligned with the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front\n--- \nwho are not known to be surrounded by enemy forces\n--- \nand who did not arrive as part of a negotiated agreement with the internationally recognized government of Ethiopia\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:56:51.197Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 263,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-08T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-18T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T16:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Tom Tugendhat become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7798/tom-tugendhat-top-tory-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Thomas Georg John Tugendhat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Tugendhat) MBE VR (born 27 June 1973) is a British Conservative Party politician serving as Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee since 2017. He has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for the ultra-safe Tory seat of Tonbridge and Malling since 2015. Before entering politics, amongst other roles, Tugendhat was a Territorial Army officer in the British Army.\nIn the wake of the Fall of Kabul in August 2021, Tugendhat described the event in The Times as Britain's \"biggest foreign policy disaster since Suez\". On 18 August, in the House of Commons, Tugendhat was applauded after giving a powerful speech that drew on his own military experiences in Afghanistan. It concluded, \"This doesn't need to be defeat, but right now it damn well feels like it.\"\nThere have subsequently been [suggestions](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9915201/Of-course-want-leadership-position-Tom-Tugendhat-speaks-Europes-new-refugee-line.html) that Tugendhat may well become the leader of the UK's Conservative Party, and ultimately become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.\nWill Tom Tugendhat become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if Tom Tugendhat holds the office of Leader of the Conservative Party at any time before January 1, 2030. Acting leaderships do not count; he must formally be the leader of the party for a positive resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:26:32.374Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-30T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1384/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-mdma-be-approved-for-the-treatment-of-ptsd-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is the first in a [three-part series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--qualia-research-institute) of questions suggested by the [Qualia Research Institute](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/), with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always interesting [QualiaComputing.com](https://qualiacomputing.com/)\nNot to be confused with the street drug formulations that (sometimes) contain MDMA along with various adulterants, pure MDMA has long been indicated as effective therapy for a range of conditions. Although the hurdles to a radical reversal in drug policy (MDMA is a Schedule 1 drug in the US, meaning officially speaking, it has no approved therapeutic use) are numerous, there have been a number of positive developments of late. \nIn 2017, MDMA was designated a \"breakthrough therapy\". [From CBS News:](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/01/us/ecstasy-molly-ptsd-mdma.html) \nAccording to the FDA's website, a designation of \"breakthrough therapy\" simply means the agency will expedite the review of the drug and potential approval. The status is granted when \"preliminary clinical evidence indicates that the drug may demonstrate substantial improvement\" over other available therapies.\nAnd in January, the ensuing clinical trials were wrapping up. [From Newsweek:](https://www.newsweek.com/mdma-ptsd-therapy-enters-final-round-trials-could-be-approved-us-and-canada-786309)\nThe final round of clinical trials for MDMA assisted psychotherapy is kicking off in Vancouver, leading the way for Canada and the United States to approve the drug for therapeutic use as early as 2021.\nThe third and final phase of trials gets underway after the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) designated MDMA as a “breakthrough therapy” for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in August 2017, ensuring that it will work with advocates to complete the last phase quickly.\nThe [results](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366%2818%2930135-4/fulltext) of these trials have been extremely promising, and have [spurred renewed interest](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/mdma-ecstasy-mdma-post-traumatic-stress-disorder-veterans-a8332561.html) in the therapy.\nLarge-scale trials, which will include up to 300 participants at 14 sites, may not be able to replicate the success of previous trials, which were limited to a few dozen patients. But so far, results are encouraging. Nearly all patients saw clinically significant reductions in symptoms, and a majority saw such drastic reductions that they no longer met the criteria for a PTSD diagnosis. In the 12 months after MDMA therapy, PTSD symptoms generally continued to decrease.\nSide effects, including anxiety, headache, fatigue, muscle tension and insomnia, were generally minor and limited to the days following the MDMA sessions.\nOther researchers, intrigued by the results, are starting their own studies of MDMA therapy, including the Department of Veterans Affairs.\nThe non-profit Multidisciplinary Association For Psychedelic Studies is funding the trials, and plans to spend nearly $27M in an attempt to gain prescription approval for the drug by 2021. \nWith the Breakthrough Therapy \"fast track\" designation on their side, will MAPS succeed? Or will bureaucratic red tape, pharmaceutical industry muscle, deep-seated distrust of psychedelic drugs and/or disappointing test results push the acceptance of MDMA as an FDA-approved treatment for PTSD further into the future?\nTo resolve positively, a credible media story or a MAPS-affiliated press release must report that MDMA has been approved as a prescription drug in the US prior to January 1st, 2025. \nThe team at the Qualia Research Institute have generously gotten the ball rolling by providing their own prediction that it is 80% likely the question will resolve positive.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:21:34.478Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 225,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-08-28T05:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8550/russia-and-the-open-skies-treaty-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "\"The Treaty on Open Skies establishes a program of unarmed aerial surveillance flights over the entire territory of its participants. The treaty is designed to enhance mutual understanding and confidence by giving all participants, regardless of size, a direct role in gathering information about military forces and activities of concern to them. It entered into force on January 1, 2002, and currently has 34 party states. The idea of allowing countries to openly surveil each other is thought to prevent misunderstandings (e.g., to assure a potential opponent that one's country is not about to go to war) and limit the escalation of tensions. It also provides mutual accountability for countries to follow through on treaty promises. Open Skies is one of the most wide-ranging international efforts to date promoting openness and transparency of military forces and activities.\" ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_Open_Skies))\nThe US withdrew from the treaty in November 2020. \"Moscow [then] unsuccessfully sought guarantees from NATO allies that they wouldn’t transfer the data collected during their observation flights over Russia to the U.S.\" ([source](https://apnews.com/article/russia-leaves-open-skies-treaty-e58019b80ae95e12007265aedfac229b)) Russia withdrew from the treaty itself in June 2021. \nSee also:\n---[By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8547/us-part-of-the-open-skies-treaty-by-2024/) \nBy 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?\nThe question resolves positively if at least three reputable sources by 2024 state Russia has clearly announced it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty (and not just that Russia would rejoin if some condition is met). This announcement must be an official announcement by one of the following: the Russian President; Prime Minister; Minister of Defense; Minister of Foreign Affairs; a similarly important and relevant member of the government; the commander-in-chief of the Russian Army; one of the Russian Army's top officers (such as a member of the General Staff or an equivalent body); or an important Russian diplomacy official such as the Russian Ambassador to the US. We will also count claims made by a spokesperson for the aformentioned people and organizations (unless contested by the person or another key person from the organization).\n(If a forecaster feels there's a decent chance such an announcement would be made by a person or entity whose membership on that list is debatable or by a person or entity who isn't on that list but should be, please raise that in the comments.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:59:42.995Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who carried out the chemical attack in Ghouta on August 21, 2013?",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/Who-carried-out-the-chemical-attack-in-Ghouta-on-August-21-2013",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "On August 21, 2013, rockets with chemical payloads landed around the neighborhood of Zamalka, located in Ghouta (an agricultural area outside of Damascus), resulting in hundreds of civilian casualties. A UN team visited the area and confirmed that the [rockets carried sarin](http://info.publicintelligence.net/UN-SyriaChemicalAttack.pdf), a deadly nerve agent used as a chemical weapon.\nThere was initial skepticism that the Syrian government would have ordered such an attack, risking retaliation by the US. But information published by the US, UN, and Human Rights Watch during the following weeks convinced Western public opinion that the Syrian government was indeed responsible. This information included:\n1--Proof that the [volcano rockets found in Zamalka were locally manufactured by the government](https://www.hrw.org/news/2013/09/10/syria-government-likely-culprit-chemical-attack). \n2--[Rocket trajectories reported by the UN that were shown to intersect at a Syrian army base](http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/18/world/middleeast/un-data-on-gas-attack-points-to-assads-top-forces.html). \n3--Detection of sarin, which was known to be held by the Syrian government. \n4--[Reports by the US government that the rockets had been launched from government territory](https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/08/30/government-assessment-syrian-government-s-use-chemical-weapons-august-21). \n5--Finally, [Syria’s agreement to dismantle their chemical weapons program](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Destruction_of_Syria%27s_chemical_weapons) was further seen as an admission of guilt. At that point the issue mostly disappeared from public discourse. \nHowever, over time, some of this evidence has been found to be unreliable, while new evidence has surfaced that seems to better support the hypothesis that opposition forces were behind the attack. These include:\n1--Analysis of the rocket’s range showing that it could not have been launched from the army base initially suspected as the origin. \n2--[Errors in the UN trajectory calculations](http://whoghouta.blogspot.com/2013/) that, together with the new rocket range calculation, point to a launch from opposition territory. \n3--Evidence of multiple instances in which the opposition used sarin or [tried to acquire it](http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/09/turkish-syrian-jihadis-chemical-court.html). \n4--[Videos](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlcbBTjh2EU) apparently showing an opposition group (Liwa al-Islam) launching chemical rockets, which match the time and location of the attack on Ghouta. \nThis attack, and others that followed, are the subject of heated international debate, which significantly increased the risk of a US-Russian military conflict on at least three occasions. The world clearly needs an unbiased analysis of this case using advanced inference tools.\n\nUpdate: In June 2021, the videos of the event were corroborated as authentic. They were matched to a field within opposition controlled territory, and that field has been shown to be in the intersection of seven trajectories calculated from images of the impact sites. [See additional evidence](https://blog.rootclaim.com/new-evidence-2013-sarin-attack-in-ghouta-syria).\n\nWe now consider this issue closed, and no longer see a need for a probabilistic analysis, as the new discoveries are clear enough to understand using standard human reasoning. We're leaving the analysis here for reference, and recording our original estimate: 87% Opposition, 13% Syrian army.\n\nNote: While we don’t expect anyone to apply at this point, the Rootclaim $100,000 debate challenge is still available for this issue. [Read more here](http://blog.rootclaim.com/100000-syria-debate-challenge). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "The Syrian army carried out the chemical attack.",
- "probability": 0.036109738906225514,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Opposition forces in Syria (Liwa al-Islam) carried out the chemical attack.",
- "probability": 0.9638902610937745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:09:13.883Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "The Syrian army carried out the chemical attack., Opposition forces in Syria (Liwa al-Islam) carried out the chemical attack."
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8536/russia-on-nuclear-weapons-employment-by-ai/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on intersections between nuclear risk and AI. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8531/intersections-between-nuclear-risk-and-ai/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.\nBy 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?\nThe question resolves positively if there are at least three reputable sources that by 2024 state that Russia has made such a clear and public affirmation. This affirmation must be an official statement by one of the following: the Russian President; Prime Minister; Minister of Defense; Minister of Foreign Affairs; a similarly important and relevant member of the government; the commander-in-chief of the Russian Army; one of the Russian Army's top officers (such as a member of the General Staff or an equivalent body); any government or army body dedicated to overseeing the nuclear arms program, nuclear policy, etc. (or a top official of such a body); or an important Russian diplomacy official such as the Russian Ambassador to the US. We will also count claims made by a spokesperson for the aformentioned people and organizations (unless contested by the person or another key person from the organization).\n(If a forecaster feels there's a decent chance such an affirmation would be made by a person or entity whose membership on that list is debatable or by a person or entity who isn't on that list but should be, please raise that in the comments.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:58:29.905Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8139/china-have-420-warheads-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nAs of May 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated China as having 350 nuclear warheads, making its stockpile the third largest in the world, though far smaller than that of Russia (6,257) and the US (5,550). \nThe Pentagon is [reported](https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2020/09/01/china-planning-to-double-nuclear-arsenal-pentagon-says/) to estimate that China will double its arsenal during the 2020s.\nWill China have at least 420 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if the total number of nuclear warheads (fission or thermonuclear) China is estimated to possess as of the most recent [FAS estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) available on 12-31-23 exceeds 420. This includes both strategic and nonstrategic weapons, and warheads that are deployed, in reserve/nondeployed, or retired but still intact.\nResolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).\nIf FAS do not publish relevant estimates anytime in 2023, they will be contacted in the final quarter of 2023 to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively or negatively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, this question will resolve ambiguously. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.68,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:40:21.762Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-20T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.\nWill there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:39:52.969Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 119,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In May 2013 the world reacted to a disturbing milestone: Daily averages of atmospheric carbon dioxide [hit 400 parts per million (ppm)](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/news/2013/CO2400.html) for the first time in modern history, compared with around 250 parts per million around the time of the Industrial Revolution. Except for a one-day reprieve in late August, daily averages have been above 400 ppm [since December 2015](https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/). The milestone was [noted, analyzed, and mourned](http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/) by climate scientists who speculated that their children and grandchildren might never again see carbon dioxide concentrations drip below 400 ppm.\nCarbon dioxide concentration has been climbing ever since measurements began at Hawaii's [Mauna Loa Observatory](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/obop/mlo/) in 1958. And the climb is [accelerating](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gr.html): in the 1960s and 70s, carbon dioxide concentration rose by around 1 ppm per year. Last year the concentration growth rate was 3 ppm per year.\nThe milestone of 400 ppm is mostly symbolic, but signifies that earth is rapidly approaching the 450 ppm threshold seen by [some](http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/) as a climate stabilization target.\nThe point at which the global carbon dioxide concentration is projected to reach 500 ppm depends on which so-called \"[representative concentration pathway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathways)\" humanity follows. The scenarios range from RCP 2.6, in which CO2 emissions peak and then decline by the mid-21st centry, to RCP 8.5, in which CO2 emissions continue unabated. In the [best-case projections](http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-best-to-worst-case-scenarios.html), earth never hits 500 ppm, peaking below 450 ppm around 2050. In the worst-case scenario, 500 ppm occurs between 2040 and 2050.\nWill earth's carbon dioxide emissions follow the worst-case scenario, reaching a global carbon dioxide concentration of 500 ppm before 2050?\nFor this question to resolve as positive, the [Mauna Loa Observatory](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html) must report a monthly carbon dioxide concentration above 500 ppm on or before December 31, 2050.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:09:16.528Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 240,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-09-24T22:11:34Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T22:11:47Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), founded in 1972, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.alcor.org/about/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nLesswrong user Froolow wrote [a financial analysis of Alcor](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B8Lu238n4ReCcebhP/how-long-will-alcor-be-around). See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/) for the Cryonics Insitute.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nWill Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at Alcor requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with Alcor before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at Alcor facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nAlcor is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by Alcor staff within one year of any report.\nIf Alcor goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that Alcor exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Alcor ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If Alcor changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If Alcor merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:50:08.445Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 82,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9086/kim-jong-un-leader-of-dprk-until-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un), born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding.\nWill Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?\nThis question will resolve positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea, in the period between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2024.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:27:55.386Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the next James Bond be female?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8315/next-james-bond-female/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "James Bond is a character created by Ian Fleming. He has been the lead character in a series of films made by Eon Productions. First portrayed by Sean Connery in 1962 and most recently by Daniel Craig in 2021.\nIt is widely understood that No Time To Die will be Craig's last movie. There is also lots of speculation of whether the next Bond character will be female:\n---[\"I think we've watched the guys do it for the last 40 years, get out of the way, guys, and put a woman up there,\" - Brosnan](https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/a28963502/pierce-brosnan-female-bond/) \n---[\"The Next James Bond Should Be A Woman\" - Screen Rant](https://screenrant.com/daniel-craig-james-bond-woman-actor-positive-good-why/) \nHowever, the producers (the Broccoli family) are understood to be against the idea. [He can be of any color, but he is male…](https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/movies/a30535775/next-james-bond-actor-will-not-be-woman-female-007/)\nWill the next James Bond be female?\nThis question will resolve positively if the next action film released by Eon films in the James Bond universe with the main character being a female intelligence officer.\nThis question should retroactively close 1 week before a media report around casting is confirmed.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:48:51.992Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-23T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of all light vehicle sales in the US will be either plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) or all-electric vehicles (EVs) in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2180-what-percentage-of-all-light-vehicle-sales-in-the-us-will-be-either-plug-in-hybrid-vehicles-phevs-or-all-electric-vehicles-evs-in-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The push to transition the US to electric vehicles continues ([Power Technology](https://www.power-technology.com/news/electric-vehicle-sales-surge-in-2021/), [McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/a-turning-point-for-us-auto-dealers-the-unstoppable-electric-car)). The outcome will be determined using 2022 data as first reported in the Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Transportation Energy Data Book (TEDB), expected in early 2023 ([Oak Ridge National Laboratory](https://tedb.ornl.gov/archive/)). For 2020, the updated TEDB reported 66.2 thousand PHEVs and 240.1 thousand EVs sold, which was 2.1702% of all light vehicle sales of 14,114 thousand that year ([TEDB - Edition 39 (2021)](https://tedb.ornl.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/TEDB_Ed_39.pdf#page=182), see Table 6.2 on page 182, or 6-4, of the pdf file).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 2.0%",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 2.0% and 3.0%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 3.0% but less than 4.0%",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 5.0%",
- "probability": 0.41,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:03:14.416Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 189,
- "numforecasters": 69,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 2.0%, Between 2.0% and 3.0%, inclusive, More than 3.0% but less than 4.0%, Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive, More than 5.0%"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2050, will at least half of college students in the US be studying exclusively remotely or online?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8493/half-of-us-college-students-remote-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Technological advancement has enabled meetings and presentations to happen increasingly online. Some believe this will reduce the need for in-person education in the future. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about college education in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nThe education bubble will have popped and in 2050 the majority of education will take place online. A combination of private tutors and MOOCs and testing centers will have become the most common form of education. Students will compile credits from these different courses for different degrees. Colleges and universities will have lost much of their prestige and most mid-tier institutions will be closed or closing.\nAccording to the National Center for Education Statistics, in the fall of 2019 [17.6% of students enrolled in degree-granting postsecondary institutions were exclusively enrolled in distance education courses](https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=80).\nIn 2050, will at least half of college students in the US be studying exclusively remotely or online?\nThis question will resolve positively if in the year 2050, at least 50% of students enrolled in degree-granting postsecondary institutions are exclusively enrolled in distance education courses, according to the [National Center for Education Statistics (NCES)](https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=80). If the NCES no longer reports this data, reliable alternate data sources may be used. If the NCES or alternate sources provide multiple data releases for the year 2050 (for example, a set of statistics for each semester) the result showing the largest share exclusively enrolled in distance education courses will be used.\nIn the event postsecondary education is no longer in a similar form as it was at the time the question was written, admins may use their discretion to determine if comparable data can be found for resolution and, if not, may resolve the question ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:55:53.379Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T22:14:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2053-12-31T22:14:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7831/us-election-2024-decided-by-supreme-court/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2000, the 5-4 decision by the US Supreme Court in [Bush v Gore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bush_v._Gore) was widely considered to have decided the outcome of the US election. In 2020, there were numerous attempts (e.g. [here](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/supreme-court-denies-texas-challenge-overturn-2020-election/story?id=74680935) and [here](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/02/22/supreme-court-declines-take-2020-election-case-pennsylvania/6578884002/)) to bring cases regarding the election before the Supreme Court, but all were denied.\nThis question asks if the Supreme Court will hear and decide a case in 2024 or 2025 which has the potential to overturn the election results.\nIn 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?\nThis question resolves positively if, in 2024 or 2025, a case relating to the 2024 US Presidential Election is heard and decided by the US Supreme Court which, if decided differently, would lead to different individuals being made US president. \nThis should exclude cases being brought before the Supreme Court which are unrelated to the 2024 election, for example a case related to impeachment of a president, or a case related to the invocation of the 25th amendment.\nAt least three credible media reports from different sources should be used to determine if deciding the case differently would influence the outcome of the election.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:28:11.533Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 34,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-02T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-02-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Trump is 2024 POTUS",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A244",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-10-17T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which candidate will receive the most votes in the first round of voting in the next French presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.193139730",
- "platform": "Betfair",
- "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the start of voting on election day. Thereafter, the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. Non featured individuals may be added to this market upon request. If more than one election takes place – not including any second round of voting for the first election - then this market will apply to the first election that is held and will be settled on whoeve receives the most votes in the first round of voting. In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement regarding the voting for the next President of France, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Emmanuel Macron",
- "probability": 0.9506564056133998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Eric Zemmour",
- "probability": 0.04934359438660028,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:00:25.987Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "volume": 4319.67
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Emmanuel Macron, Eric Zemmour"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the world's richest person in 2033 have a net worth greater than that of John D. Rockefeller in 1913?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/899/will-the-worlds-richest-person-in-2033-have-a-net-worth-greater-than-that-of-john-d-rockefeller-in-1913/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[John D. Rockefeller](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_D._Rockefeller) is considered to be the wealthiest American of all time. In 1913 he was the world's richest person with a net worth of over a billion dollars. That was equivalent to about 2% of the United States' GDP back then. For reference, 2% of US GDP would be close to 400 billion dollars today! This reference perspective makes him much richer than the current richest person in the world, Jeff Bezos, whose net worth is at 112 billion dollars in the 2018 Forbes ranking.\nYet, inequality is on the rise in many developed countries and the net worth of the richest person in the world has been consistently increasing over the last few years. Could a person as rich as John D. Rockefeller reappear in the modern world?\nWill the richest person in the world in 2033 have a net worth equivalent to or greater than 2% of the United States' GDP at the time?\nData for resolution shall be taken from the [2033 Forbes Billionaires list (note: of course the link currently does not lead to the 2033 list)]( https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/list/). Note that this list is to be differentiated from the real time list.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.57,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.43000000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:16:43.886Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 410,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-05-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9609/orb%25C3%25A1n-wins-2022-hungarian-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Viktor Orbán](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Orb%C3%A1n) has been the Prime Minister of Hungary since 2010. The next [Hungarian general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Hungarian_parliamentary_election) is due on April 3, 2022, with the winning majority being able to decide the Prime Minister. The main opposition group is [United for Hungary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_for_Hungary), which is composed of parties across the political spectrum, united in their opposition to Orbán. It is lead by [Péter Márki-Zay](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P%C3%A9ter_M%C3%A1rki-Zay), a winner of the group's primary elections, who describes himself as \"a right-wing Christian\". He has also promised a new constitution and to support same-sex marriage. [Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Hungarian_parliamentary_election) has consistently been divided between Orbán's party Fidesz and the opposition coalition.\nWill Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?\nThis question will resolve positively if Viktor Orbán is elected by the Hungarian National Assembly following their next Parliamentary Elections, scheduled for April 3, 2022.\nIn the case that no elections are held between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:47:27.633Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 62,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-02-01T22:30:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-02T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-09T14:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.\nShould the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No. Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nShould the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.5242718446601942,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.44660194174757284,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Libertarian",
- "probability": 0.019417475728155338,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Green",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:08.058Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 824612
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic, Libertarian, Green"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the United Arab Emirates' ranking in the Global Food Security Index for 2022, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2142-what-will-be-the-united-arab-emirates-ranking-in-the-global-food-security-index-for-2022-according-to-the-economist-intelligence-unit",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The UAE's ranking fell from 21st in 2019 to 42nd in 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic ([u.ae](https://u.ae/en/information-and-services/environment-and-energy/food-security/global-food-security-index), [Food Security Index - UAE](https://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/Country/Details#United%20Arab%20Emirates)). The outcome will be determined using data for 2022 as provided by the Global Food Security Index, expected to be released in 2023 ([Food Security Index](https://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/Index)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Lower than 55th",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 55th and 41st",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 40th and 26th",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher than 25th",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:04:19.436Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 100,
- "numforecasters": 38,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 55th, Between 55th and 41st, Between 40th and 26th, Higher than 25th"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the annual percentage change in the average hourly earnings of US private sector employees in October 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2203-what-will-be-the-annual-percentage-change-in-the-average-hourly-earnings-of-us-private-sector-employees-in-october-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Labor shortages have put pressure on wages in the US ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/07/a-sharp-rise-in-wages-is-contributing-to-worries-over-inflation.html), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-15/tightest-u-s-job-market-since-1950s-set-to-drive-inflation), [Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wages-and-prices-are-up-but-it-isnt-a-spiralyet-11635688981)). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2022 and the outcome determined using Bureau of Labor Statistics data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for \"Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees, Total Private,\" expected on 4 November 2022 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Jf5), adjust the slider under the chart to include latest data). For August 2021, the annual percentage change was 4.07194%.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "An increase of less than 2.0%",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "An increase of between 2.0% and 3.0%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "An increase of more than 3.0% but less than 4.0%",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "An increase of between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "An increase of more than 5.0% but less than 6.0%",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "An increase of 6.0% or more",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:02:33.015Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 183,
- "numforecasters": 86,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "An increase of less than 2.0%, An increase of between 2.0% and 3.0%, inclusive, An increase of more than 3.0% but less than 4.0%, An increase of between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive, An increase of more than 5.0% but less than 6.0%, An increase of 6.0% or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Cavendish account for less than 50% of banana exports worldwide by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1558/cavendish-bananas-collapse-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Bananas are a well-liked import fruit all over the world, and the Cavendish cultivar has been crushing that market for sixty years. But its rise is literally founded upon the compost heap of the Gros Michel, another cultivar. The so-called “Big Mike” variety had been the leading export towards Europe and North America, but the Panama disease, a fungus belonging to the Fusarium clade, killed that. [Luckily the Cavendish, grown in the same soil as the wilting Gros Michel, replaced it as the banana most of the western world connected with bananas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana).\nHowever, it appears [another Fusarium rears its spores](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/cavendish-banana-extinction-gene-editing). Cavendish, with their genetic homogenity (they’re all clones) and sterile nature, aren’t resistant to it, and the fungus is ravaging more and more plantations. \nThere are efforts under way to deal with Fusarium, but with various societies’ doubts and misgivings about GMOs, the cure may be viewed as a curse instead.\nWill the Cavendish account for less than 50% of banana exports worldwide by 2035?\nResolution is negative if Cavendish accounts for more than 50% of worldwide banana exports every year between now and 2035, and positive otherwise.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:26:23.239Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 143,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in South Korea?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2208-which-party-s-candidate-will-win-the-next-presidential-election-in-south-korea",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "South Korea is scheduled to hold its next presidential election on 9 March 2022 ([US News](https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-11-05/south-koreas-ex-top-prosecutor-to-challenge-moons-party-in-2022-presidential-election), [Korea Herald](http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20211128000026)). As of launch, Lee Jae-myung was the Democratic Party of Korea nominee, while Yoon Seok-youl was the People Power Party nominee ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-26/south-korea-s-moon-and-ex-rival-mend-fences-ahead-of-election)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic Party of Korea",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "People Power Party",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Another candidate",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:02:23.113Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 158,
- "numforecasters": 49,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic Party of Korea, People Power Party, Another candidate"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7194/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Wisconsin Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Ron Johnson",
- "probability": 0.9509803921568627,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Gallagher",
- "probability": 0.0196078431372549,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Scott Walker",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kevin Nicholson",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brian Steil",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:57:34.641Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 128581
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Ron Johnson, Mike Gallagher, Scott Walker, Kevin Nicholson, Brian Steil"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Dogecoin ($DOGE) or Shiba Inu ($SHIB) have a higher market cap on March 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-dogecoin-doge-or-shiba-inu-shib-have-a-higher-market-cap-on-march-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Dogecoin ($DOGE) or Shiba Inu ($SHIB) will have a higher market cap on March 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, according to CoinGecko’s Cryptocurrency market cap ranking.\n\nOn the resolution date, March 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, CoinGecko’s ranking page https://www.coingecko.com/en will be checked, and whichever of the two cryptocurrencies is higher ranked when sorted by “Market Cap” will have its respectively named Outcome token resolved as the winner. If for any reason the resolution data is unavailable at the resolution time, another credible source will be checked such as CoinMarketCap. Market Cap = Current Price x Circulating Supply, according to CoinGecko.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Dogecoin",
- "probability": "0.7329634531192631072924743940851037",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Shiba Inu",
- "probability": "0.2670365468807368927075256059148963",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.518Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "374",
- "liquidity": "1110.87",
- "tradevolume": "2264.60",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0xee52587AB339ad45D7517A54c52cdf339AA96685"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Dogecoin, Shiba Inu"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will commercial animal farming be prohibited in the US by 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7334/us-commercial-animal-farming-ban-by-2041/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Direct Action Everywhere](https://www.directactioneverywhere.com/theliberationist/some-big-updates-to-dxes-roadmap-to-animal-liberation) recently updated their [roadmap to animal liberation](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YN7KpuShiZItqVuQtWv6ykrjrNv6rAnmjVOcsofRj0I/edit) to move the expected date of an Animal Bill of Rights forward from 2055 to 2040. An Animal Bill of Rights refers to extending constitutional protections in the US to animals, such that specifically all animal farming is made illegal by either a constitutional amendment or a Supreme Court ruling interpreting the existing constitution to prohibit animal farming. This question asks if they will be proved correct, while also accepting a legislative ban on animal farming for positive resolution.\nWill commercial animal farming be prohibited in the US by 2041?\nThis question resolves positively if the US government passes legislation or the US constitution has been amended or interpreted by the Supreme Court to prohibit commercial animal farming by the end of 2040.\nCommercial Animal farming is considered to be the branch of agriculture involving animals that are raised for the commerce of meat, fibre, milk, eggs, or other physical products. For example, dairy cows should count as animal farming, but not pet chickens or animals kept in zoos for entertainment purposes. Both aquaculture (fish-farming) and fishing for wild fish should also count for resolution of this question. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:10:27.546Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 175,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a 9 foot tall human by 2075?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1061/will-there-be-a-9-foot-tall-human-by-2075/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Born in 1918, Robert Wadlow grew to enormous size and scraped the skies at 8' 11\" thanks to hormonal issue that tragically also led to a cacade of health problems. He died in 1940 of consequences from an infection.\nOther people have crested the 8' tall mark, but they are few and far between, and no one's come close to Wadlow's record, at least according to the [officials at Guinness](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/tallest-man-ever/).\nCan people ever grow to 9 feet tall or even beyond? This [article from The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2004/may/06/thisweekssciencequestions3) points out that: \nNormally, the growth of our bones is limited by our sex hormones. A good burst of sex hormones at the right time tells the ends of our bones to stop growing. In acromegalic gigantism, as the tumour grows, it destroys cells in the pituitary gland that stimulate the release of sex hormones. The bones, therefore, never get the signal to stop growing.\nBut surely there must be a limit to a person's height? John Wass, a specialist in acromegalic gigantism at the University of Oxford, reckons it would be impressive to survive for long if you grew taller than 9ft. \nHere's why Wass thinks 9 feet tall is a ceiling, so to speak: \n---blood pressure in the legs would be extreme and dangerous \n---keeping blood circulating in such a person would strain the heart to the breaking point \n[Gizmodo points out](https://gizmodo.com/5994755/how-tall-can-a-human-get) that: \nthe primary [obstacle to mega growth] is our environment. Gravity, and the limited buoyancy of the air around us, means that our bones would have to grow exponentially larger to support a human that towered ten to twelve feet tall. \nAnd this [New York Times piece](https://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/30/science/30qna.html) quotes Dr. Rob DeSalle, of the Sackler Institute for Comparative Genomics, who says: \nMany joint disorders and bone problems exist for these individuals that impact average-height people much less. Engineering problems with respect to organisms and their evolution do not get solved easily.\nAll that said, Wadlow came within just 1 inch of 9 feet tall. Surely, some person, somewhere, will break the mark. But when?\nMore specifically, by 2075 will Guinness (or some comparable replacement or alternative) record a > 9' tall human?\n9 foot = 274 cm\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:19:48.530Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 253,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-19T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-07-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Internationally recognized Kurdish state by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/566/internationally-recognized-kurdish-state-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the midst of the ongoing Iraqi Civil War, Kurdish forces spearheaded by the Peshmerga militia were able to exploit the weakness of the central Iraqi government based in Baghdad in order to expand the territory de facto held by Iraqi Kurdistan. This spurred a long-awaited referendum on Kurdish independence from Baghdad within this territory, resulting in an overwhelming 93% majority for the 'yes' vote. However, Baghdad has rejected the legitimacy of the referendum, as have many other prominent international politicians including US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. (Some background [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Civil_War_%282014%E2%80%93present%29) and [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Kurdistan_independence_referendum,_2017).)\nNevertheless, there remains a chance that Iraqi Kurdistan, currently ruled by the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government, will be able to win full independence from Iraq either at the negotiating table or by use of force. Much less likely is the creation of a Kurdish state in Turkey or Iran, both with significant Kurdish minorities that have also fought civil wars in attempts to win independence, or at the very least, increased autonomy.\nThis question asks:\nWill any Kurdish independence movement succeed to the point of a Kurdish state being admitted as a member state of the United Nations by the beginning of 2030? \nA Kurdish state can be defined as any polity with the word 'Kurd', 'Kurdish', or 'Kurdistan' in its name, or with over half of its population of Kurdish ethnicity as validated by a reputable source.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:12:43.894Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 296,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-10-05T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will gain an overall majority of parliamentary seats at the next UK general election?",
- "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.167249195",
- "platform": "Betfair",
- "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the start of voting on the day of the next general election. Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times. The Speaker will not be classified as belonging to any particular party, and will therefore not be counted in any individual party's seat totals. Customers should be aware that:
Transmissions described as “live” by some broadcasters may actually be delayed.
The extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data.
",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "No Overall Majority",
- "probability": 0.5085064085981879,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Conservative Majority",
- "probability": 0.2876693397212605,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Labour Majority",
- "probability": 0.2013685378048824,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Liberal Democrat majority",
- "probability": 0.002455713875669297,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:00:25.985Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4,
- "volume": 127021.64
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "No Overall Majority, Conservative Majority, Labour Majority, Liberal Democrat majority"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which candidate will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?",
- "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.176878927",
- "platform": "Betfair",
- "description": "This market will be turned in-play at the stated time on the day of the election. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2024 presidential election. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution. This market will be settled once both the projected winner is announced by the Associated Press and the losing candidate concedes. If the losing candidate does not concede, or if there is any uncertainty around the result (for instance, caused by recounts and/or potential legal challenges), then the market will be settled on the winner decided by Congress, on the date on which the Electoral College votes are counted in a joint session of Congress. This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2024. If more than one election takes place in 2024, then this market will apply to the first election that is held. Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2024 for the US Presidential Election 2024, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2024 or beyond. If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. Betfair may suspend betting on the market at any time in the interests of maintaining integrity and fairness in the markets. Additional candidates may be added to this market on request. Please note that candidates in this market will not be partially settled and will remain in the market until it is fully settled. This is to allow customers to continue trading candidates that they have positions on and because each candidate is still a valid runner in this market. If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules. Customers should be aware that: Transmissions described as “live” by some broadcasters may actually be delayed.The extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump",
- "probability": 0.22384240223944665,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joe Biden",
- "probability": 0.1627944743559612,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kamala Harris",
- "probability": 0.08595548245994751,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ron DeSantis",
- "probability": 0.12493529427317952,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nikki Haley",
- "probability": 0.041324751182667076,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Pence",
- "probability": 0.041324751182667076,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Pete Buttigieg",
- "probability": 0.03837298324104799,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Pompeo",
- "probability": 0.021488870614986878,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Elizabeth Warren",
- "probability": 0.022384240223944665,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tucker Carlson",
- "probability": 0.0134305441343668,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kristi Noem",
- "probability": 0.01264051212646287,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dwayne Johnson",
- "probability": 0.011309931902624672,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ted Cruz",
- "probability": 0.011309931902624672,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Josh Hawley",
- "probability": 0.005116397765473067,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tom Cotton",
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- {
- "name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez",
- "probability": 0.005372217653746719,
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- {
- "name": "Nina Turner",
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- {
- "name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
- "probability": 0.005372217653746719,
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- {
- "name": "Hillary Clinton",
- "probability": 0.01790739217915573,
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- {
- "name": "Ivanka Trump",
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- {
- "name": "Candace Owens",
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- {
- "name": "Tulsi Gabbard",
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- {
- "name": "Liz Cheney",
- "probability": 0.002148887061498688,
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- {
- "name": "Michael Bloomberg",
- "probability": 0.004671493611953669,
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- {
- "name": "Eric Garcetti",
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- {
- "name": "Matt Gaetz",
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- {
- "name": "Michelle Obama",
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- {
- "name": "Mitt Romney",
- "probability": 0.0014325913743324585,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Meghan Markle",
- "probability": 0.0011807071766476306,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ben Carson",
- "probability": 0.00306983865928384,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Dan Crenshaw",
- "probability": 0.0031601280316157173,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Cory Booker",
- "probability": 0.0017907392179155733,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Paul Ryan",
- "probability": 0.0024419171153394178,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marco Rubio",
- "probability": 0.002286050065424136,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Oprah Winfrey",
- "probability": 0.0013774917060889024,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Kerry",
- "probability": 0.0035814784358311467,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rick Scott",
- "probability": 0.001074443530749344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sherrod Brown",
- "probability": 0.002192741899488457,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Condoleezza Rice",
- "probability": 0.001074443530749344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bernie Sanders",
- "probability": 0.0014325913743324585,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrew Cuomo",
- "probability": 0.001074443530749344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Gavin Newsom",
- "probability": 0.0038372983241047993,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Julian Castro",
- "probability": 0.0011938261452770487,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrew Yang",
- "probability": 0.0034659468733849804,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chris Christie",
- "probability": 0.0024987058854635904,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rand Paul",
- "probability": 0.002827482975656168,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Kasich",
- "probability": 0.001074443530749344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Eric Holder",
- "probability": 0.001074443530749344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Eric Swalwell",
- "probability": 0.001074443530749344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Caitlyn Jenner",
- "probability": 0.001074443530749344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Christopher Sununu",
- "probability": 0.001143025032712068,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Al Gore",
- "probability": 0.001074443530749344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Beto O'Rourke",
- "probability": 0.0012072399221902742,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rob Portman",
- "probability": 0.001074443530749344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rashida Tlaib",
- "probability": 0.001074443530749344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jeb Bush",
- "probability": 0.001074443530749344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Deval Patrick",
- "probability": 0.001074443530749344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Greg Abbott",
- "probability": 0.002238424022394466,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ayanna Pressley",
- "probability": 0.001074443530749344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jay Inslee",
- "probability": 0.001074443530749344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mitch McConnell",
- "probability": 0.001074443530749344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lindsey Graham",
- "probability": 0.001074443530749344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jo Jorgensen",
- "probability": 0.001074443530749344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Karen Bass",
- "probability": 0.001074443530749344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Susan Collins",
- "probability": 0.001074443530749344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sarah Huckabee Sanders",
- "probability": 0.001074443530749344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jon Tester",
- "probability": 0.001074443530749344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joe Manchin",
- "probability": 0.002238424022394466,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ron Johnson",
- "probability": 0.001074443530749344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Glenn Youngkin",
- "probability": 0.004476848044788932,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Amy Klobuchar",
- "probability": 0.0067152720671834,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Susan Rice",
- "probability": 0.001074443530749344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Eric Adams",
- "probability": 0.0018524888461195583,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tim Ryan",
- "probability": 0.001074443530749344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Herschel Walker",
- "probability": 0.001074443530749344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Fetterman",
- "probability": 0.001074443530749344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Josh Mandel",
- "probability": 0.001074443530749344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Winsome Sears",
- "probability": 0.001074443530749344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kevin McCarthy",
- "probability": 0.001074443530749344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mitch Landrieu",
- "probability": 0.001074443530749344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jared Polis",
- "probability": 0.001074443530749344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mark Cuban",
- "probability": 0.002148887061498688,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ben Sasse",
- "probability": 0.001074443530749344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tim Scott",
- "probability": 0.0023876522905540974,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:00:25.986Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4,
- "volume": 782920.09
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Pete Buttigieg, Mike Pompeo, Elizabeth Warren, Tucker Carlson, Kristi Noem, Dwayne Johnson, Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, Tom Cotton, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Nina Turner, Donald Trump Jr., Hillary Clinton, Ivanka Trump, Candace Owens, Tulsi Gabbard, Liz Cheney, Michael Bloomberg, Eric Garcetti, Matt Gaetz, Michelle Obama, Mitt Romney, Meghan Markle, Ben Carson, Dan Crenshaw, Cory Booker, Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, Oprah Winfrey, John Kerry, Rick Scott, Sherrod Brown, Condoleezza Rice, Bernie Sanders, Andrew Cuomo, Gavin Newsom, Julian Castro, Andrew Yang, Chris Christie, Rand Paul, John Kasich, Eric Holder, Eric Swalwell, Caitlyn Jenner, Christopher Sununu, Al Gore, Beto O'Rourke, Rob Portman, Rashida Tlaib, Jeb Bush, Deval Patrick, Greg Abbott, Ayanna Pressley, Jay Inslee, Mitch McConnell, Lindsey Graham, Jo Jorgensen, Karen Bass, Susan Collins, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Jon Tester, Joe Manchin, Ron Johnson, Glenn Youngkin, Amy Klobuchar, Susan Rice, Eric Adams, Tim Ryan, Herschel Walker, John Fetterman, Josh Mandel, Winsome Sears, Kevin McCarthy, Mitch Landrieu, Jared Polis, Mark Cuban, Ben Sasse, Tim Scott"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will KIC 9832227 go \"red nova\" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/669/will-kic-9832227-go-supernova--observable-to-the-naked-eye-on-earth--by-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Astronomer Larry Molner, presenting at the American Astronomical Society, boldly offered that the binary star system known as KIC 9832227 is a ticking time bomb that may have [already exploded](https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/01/see-star-explode-2022-nova-cygnus-skywatching-space-science/).\nThe \"Boom Star\" as Molner [calls it](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4091604/Mark-calendars-dazzling-supernova-appear-sky-2022-predict-astronomers.html):\nwill be visible as part of the constellation Cygnus, and will add a star to the recognisable Northern Cross star pattern.\nMolner's hunch is based on observations of a similar system, V1309 Scorpii, that supernovaed in 2008.\nWill this bold prediction come to pass? \nResult is positive if independent astronomical observations confirm that KIC 9832227 has undergone an \"red nova\" or similar explosive event, giving it a visual magnitude of 6 or less, before January 1, 2024 (giving an extra year or so to the Molner's stated prediction)\n(Edited 3/5/18) to clarify resolution criteria and nature of event.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:15:18.994Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 171,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-03-05T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6844/at-least-3-ubi-pilots-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income be introduced in any EU country before 2041?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/)\n--- \n[When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/)\n[Universal Basic Income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income) is a proposal to give unrestricted cash transfers to everyone in a given population (such as a town, state, or nation). Proponents argue that UBI could end poverty, support people in a [technological unemployment crisis](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU), or could [reform existing social welfare systems](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/05/23/ssc-gives-a-graduation-speech/). Critics argue that UBI could be prohibitively expensive, disincentivize people from pursing productive work, or even argue that work is an intrinsic good.\nUBI has been studied, in some limited circumstances. [The State of Alaska](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/13/16997188/alaska-basic-income-permanent-fund-oil-revenue-study) provides a stipend to its citizens (though well under a poverty line income), and many studies have been run on sampled populations, like those run by [GiveDirectly](https://www.givedirectly.org/ubi-study/).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuel predicts:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nAt least three new basic income pilots will be launched (75 percent) \n[...] I think basic income will continue to gain momentum in 2021, with at least three new pilots launching globally. I’m not expecting to see much action at the national level — with a few exceptions, basic income programs offer money to small groups of a few hundred or few thousand people, not a whole country — but I think we’ll see a good amount of action at the city level. That’s because the global economy won’t recover overnight; the need precipitated by the pandemic will persist well into the year, and the illusion that only lazy people ever need “free money” has been shattered.\nWill at least 3 Basic Income pilots be tested in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if at least 3 new Basic Income pilots or programs begin disbursing money to recipients in 2021. Such pilots may be funded or managed by governments or private individuals.\nA qualifying program must have at least 100 individuals who recieve an income of greater than 33% of the poverty threshold in their region. The income must be unconditional, ie, ask no requirements of the recipients (besides trivial requirements such as residency and reporting data to the study authors), and have no restrictions on how the cash is spent. The study must last at least 6 months long. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:55:19.574Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 132,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-15T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T04:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a US Census in 2070 or earlier show a decline in population?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7857/us-census-shows-population-decline-by-2070/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [United States Census](https://www.census.gov/) takes a census every 10 years. In the [most recent census in 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_census), the US population had grown by 7.4% in the past decade. This is contrast to [some developed nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_growth_rate) whose populations are declining, though [population growth in the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States) has slowed and the 7.4% is one of the lowest-ever decade-on-decade growth rates ever recorded. Recently, [US fertility has hit record lows](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/05/22/u-s-fertility-rate-explained/) though it is still not as low as [countries like Japan, Italy, Spain, and South Korea.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_fertility_rate) [Immigration to the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_the_United_States) is a significant source of population growth, especially in contrast with countries like Japan.\nWill a US Census in 2070 or earlier show a decline in population?\nThis question will resolve if a Census conducted before 2071 shows a drop in US population over the previous Census, according to [official statistics from the United States Census Bureau.](https://www.census.gov/) If the Census Bureau changes its name or merges into another entity, those statistics will be used instead.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:29:08.967Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2076-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9029/2022-winter-olympics-completed-as-scheduled/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the postponement of the 2020 Summer Olympics to 2021, marking the first time since 1992 in which the Winter and Summer Olympics would be held less than six months apart from each other.\nThe 2022 Winter Olympics are scheduled to take place from 4 to 20 February 2022 and are scheduled to include a record 109 events.\nWill the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and without delays?\nThis question resolves positively if all of:\n1-- \nthe Opening Ceremony takes place on February 4th, 2022\n2-- \nthe Closing Ceremony takes place on February 20th, 2022\n3-- \nat least 95% of all 109 events are completed in between these two events\nOtherwise it resolves negatively.\nAn \"event\" is considered complete if medals are awarded. Delays of individual events do not cause a negative resolution as long as all events are completed before the Closing Ceremony. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.10999999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:24:51.199Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 227,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-26T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-04T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-21T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8599/semaglutide-approval-withdrawn-by-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2014, liraglutide was [approved as a drug for weight loss](https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/nda/2014/206321Orig1s000TOC.cfm) by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), then later by [the European Medicines Agency (EMA) in 2015](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/human/EPAR/saxenda). It is a once-daily injected drug based on the gut hormone glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), whose biology has turned out to be a goldmine for the medical management of obesity and type 2 diabetes. Liraglutide, which was developed by Novo Nordisk, causes about [7%](https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736%2809%2961375-1) [loss](https://doi.org/10.1038/ijo.2011.158) of body weight in people with obesity when paired with diet and exercise advice.\nBy tweaking the design of GLP-1-based drugs, [Novo Nordisk discovered](https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.jmedchem.5b00726) another drug that had a much longer half-life in the blood and a substantially larger impact on body weight: semaglutide. Semaglutide only requires one injection per week and produces average weight losses of [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% in people with obesity when paired with diet and exercise advice. [Initially approved at lower doses](https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/nda/2017/209637Orig1s000TOC.cfm) for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA approved a higher dose (2.4 mg) for the treatment of obesity [in June 2021](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-drug-treatment-chronic-weight-management-first-2014). It’s marketed under the brand name Wegovy in the US, and Ozempic or Rybelsus in other markets.\nGiven the checkered history of weight loss drugs, it’s reasonable to be cautious about their safety. Semaglutide and related drugs often cause unpleasant gastrointestinal side effects like nausea, heartburn, diarrhea, constipation, fatigue, and headache, but these are typically mild and transient if the dose is started low and escalated slowly. [Few people](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183) discontinue semaglutide due to side effects.\nSome studies have suggested that this class of drugs may increase the risk of [thyroid](https://doi.org/10.1210/en.2009-1272) and [pancreatic](https://doi.org/10.2337/db11-1109) cancer in lab rodents. Yet [randomized controlled trials](https://doi.org/10.1007/s12020-019-02055-z) including 64,000 people with type 2 diabetes have not observed an increased risk of cancer, overall or at any specific site in humans. These trials are limited in duration and don’t yet have enough people to reliably identify modest increases in the risk of low-frequency outcomes like thyroid and pancreatic cancer. Observational [monitoring data](https://doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2021.645563) are mixed but have not provided a clear signal of increased risk. \nImportantly, trials suggest that semaglutide [reduces major](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1901118) [cardiovascular events](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1607141) by about one quarter, similar to cholesterol-lowering statin drugs. Furthermore, across seven trials in people with type 2 diabetes, semaglutide and related drugs reduce the overall risk of dying [by 12%](https://doi.org/10.1016/s2213-8587%2819%2930249-9). These findings are reassuring, but monitoring is ongoing and [some concern remains](https://doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2021.645563).\nWill the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?\nThis question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency withdraw approval for Semaglutide (AKA Wegovy, Ozempic, or any other brand name for semaglutide 2.4 mg weekly injection) by 2027-01-01. The stated reason for withdrawal must include concerns of safety or harmful side effects.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:02:03.913Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-12T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the three-year average of livestock production subsidies fall below $150M/year by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7063/3-year-livestock-subsidies-to-fall-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "US farmers received roughly $10B in subisides in 2020, according data from [EWG's Farm Subsidy Database](https://farm.ewg.org/region.php?fips=00000&progcode=total&yr=2020). A majority of this is spent on commodity subsidies, which subsidise the production of crops such as corn, wheat, soybeans, and rice. \nAs many subsidized crops are inputs to intensive animal farming, these often serve as implicit subsidies to the industry ([Starmer, 2006](https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/37162/)). In addition, livestock production is commonly directly subsidized. In 2020, livestock producers received direct subsidies amounting to roughly $330M, according to [EWG data](https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&progcode=livestock). Subsidies for incumbent intensive animal protein production inhibit the rate at which such approaches can be substituted by cleaner alternative proteins [(Jiang et al., 2020)](https://www.mdpi.com/2304-8158/9/9/1227).\nWill the three-year average of livestock production subsidies fall below $150M/year by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the three-year simple moving average of the total livestock subsidies through all subsidy programs, as reported in [EWG database](https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&progcode=livestock) falls below $150M/year. The [EWG database](https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&progcode=livestock) database will be checked on 2031-06-01 to account for lags in reporting or revising the data. The three-year simple moving average in any year calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of the subsidy totals in that year and the previous two years.\nYearly totals for previous years are as follows:\n---2015 $1,320,274,264 \n---2016 $449,041,696 \n---2017 $447,720,097 \n---2018 $677,555,047 \n---2019 $673,865,626 \n---2020 $326,246,325 \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:02:32.514Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 67,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-04-22T23:20:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:20:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7052/global-meat-producers-to-go-bankrupt-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [Value.today](https://www.value.today/world-top-companies/meat-poultry-fish-companies-world), software analytics company, the largest global processors or producers of meat are the following as April 2021 are: [Cargill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill) (US), [Tyson Foods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Foods) (US), [Muyuan Foods](https://www.reuters.com/companies/002714.SZ) (CN), [Wens Foodstuff Group](https://www.reuters.com/companies/300498.SZ) (CN), [Hormel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormel) (US), [Kerry Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Group) (IE), [JBS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A.) (BR), [WH Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WH_Group) (Hong Kong), [Mowi ASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mowi) (NO), and [Marubeni Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marubeni) (JP)\nWill any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Cargill, Tyson Foods, Hormel, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, or any of their parent companies file for bankruptcy by 2023-01-01, according to credible financial media reports.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively if [Cargill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill), [Tyson Foods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Foods) or [Hormel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormel) (or any of their parent companies) submits a court filing seeking bankruptcy protection under any provision of the United States Bankruptcy Code, or if [Muyuan Foods](https://www.reuters.com/companies/002714.SZ) or [Wens Foodstuff Group](https://www.reuters.com/companies/300498.SZ) (or any of their parent companies) apply for bankruptcy proceedings in China. It will also resolve positively if [Kerry Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Group) applies for bankruptcy proceedings in Ireland, [JBS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A.) in Brazil, the [WH Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WH_Group) in Hong Kong, [Mowi ASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mowi) in Norway, or the [Marubeni Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marubeni) in Japan. \n--- \nPositive resolution requires a filing only. No court ruling needs to be made.\n--- \nIf any of the relevant companies are acquired or merged, and the new entity files for bankruptcy within two years of the acquisition or merger, the question resolves positively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:01:34.240Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-22T22:54:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T23:54:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-2024",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:38.049Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 151238
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Kamala Harris is nominated to SCOTUS by EOY 2024",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A256",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-11-29T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many incumbent governors will lose primaries in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7639/How-many-incumbent-governors-will-lose-primaries-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of incumbent state governors who, in the 2022 primaries, contest and lose a gubernatorial primary election.\nIn states that have partisan primaries for gubernatorial elections, only the primary for the major party that the Governor represents shall be relevant. In states that do not have partisan primaries for gubernatorial elections, losing a primary shall be synonymous with any performance in a non-partisan primary that is insufficient to advance the Governor to the general election as a ballot-listed candidate.\nContesting a primary shall be synonymous with being a ballot-listed candidate.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "0",
- "probability": 0.3272727272727273,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1",
- "probability": 0.27272727272727276,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "2",
- "probability": 0.17272727272727276,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "3",
- "probability": 0.08181818181818183,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "4",
- "probability": 0.04545454545454546,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "5",
- "probability": 0.03636363636363637,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "6",
- "probability": 0.027272727272727275,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "7",
- "probability": 0.009090909090909092,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "8",
- "probability": 0.009090909090909092,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "9",
- "probability": 0.009090909090909092,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "10 or more",
- "probability": 0.009090909090909092,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:04:55.949Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 80703
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be \"alive\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7892/ea-wiki-alive-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Effective Altruism Wiki](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tags/all) is a wiki about effective altruism and related topics hosted on the [Effective Altruism Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/). It was [launched](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/X6SyxmhYEo4SofyAL/our-plans-for-hosting-an-ea-wiki-on-the-forum) in March 2021.\nProjects in this reference class—roughly, works of reference connected in some form to effective altruism—[appear](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zAEC8BuLYdKmH54t7/ea-infrastructure-fund-may-2021-grant-recommendations#Pablo_Stafforini__EA_Forum_Wiki___34_200_) to have a rather poor track record. One common failure mode is the relatively low quality of even the best published articles. Another failure mode is their relative short duration: after a period of activity, they stagnate or disappear altogether. This question is about the second of these failure modes; for the first type of failure, see [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7890/ea-wiki-quality-of-best-articles/).\n--\nThis is the sixth in a series of six questions about the EA Wiki, aimed to generate information of potential value to wiki editors, funders, and other interested parties.\n1--[How many words of content will have been published?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7886/ea-wiki-total-words-published/) \n2--[What fraction of total traffic to the EA Forum will be Wiki traffic?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7887/ea-wiki-fraction-of-ea-forum-traffic/) \n3--[What fraction of total content will have been written by volunteer contributors?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7888/ea-wiki-fraction-written-by-volunteers/) \n4--[How fast will the EA Wiki grow relative to the LessWrong Wiki?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7889/ea-wiki-growth-relative-to-lw-wiki/) \n5--[What will be the quality of the best articles?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7890/ea-wiki-quality-of-best-articles/) \n6--Will the Wiki be \"alive\"? \nBy 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be \"alive\"?\nThe question will resolve positively if and only if the average daily number of words published in the three calendar months preceding the question's resolution date is at least 20% the average daily number of words estimated to have been published in the three calendar months preceding the question's opening date. We estimate that an average of 250 words/day were published in the months of June, July and August 2021, so this question will resolve positively if and only if an average of at least 50 words/day are published in the months of October, November and December 2022. The word count will be computed following the method described in the resolution criteria of [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7886/ea-wiki-total-words-published/) (adjusted for the relevant dates). If the question does not resolve positively, it will resolve negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:30:58.242Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-10-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the GOP control the US Senate after the 2022 election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/gop-controls-us-senate-in-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will Republicans win both the House and Senate in 2022 midterm elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8971/republicans-win-house-and-senate/)\n--- \n[Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/)\n--- \n[How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9080/democrats-in-senate-after-2022/)\n[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections):\nThe 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans.\nWill the GOP control the US Senate after the 2022 election?\nThis resolves positive if, on February 1 2023, the US Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:25:50.062Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 711,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-08T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3484/will-the-number-of-people-in-extreme-poverty-in-2020-be-lower-than-the-number-in-2015/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Extreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices [(World Bank, 2017)](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/25141/9781464809613.pdf). In 2015, 9.98% of the World's population or 734.5 million people lived in extreme poverty [(World Bank, 2019)](http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/344401569259571927/pdf/September-2019-PovcalNet-Update-Whats-New.pdf).\nAccording to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&state$time$value=2006&delay:121.71612903225821;&entities$;&marker$select@;&opacitySelectDim:0.3&axis_x$use=indicator&which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&scaleType=log&zoomedMin=282&zoomedMax=119849&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&axis_y$use=indicator&which=extreme_poverty_percent_people_below_190_a_day&scaleType=linear&zoomedMin=0&zoomedMax=93&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&size$use=indicator&which=population_total&extent@:0.022083333333333333&:0.4083333333333333;&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&color$use=property&which=world_6region;;;&ui$chart$trails:false), extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, [there is evidence](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank) that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.\nWill we see fewer than 734.5M people in extreme poverty, worldwide in the year 2020, according to World Bank estimates?\nThis question resolves positively if the first estimates of the number in extreme poverty in the year 2020, published by the World Bank, is below 734.5M. In case the numbers are not published by the World Bank before the end of 2025, figures from other data sources, such as those listed on the [data sources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/#data-sources), may be consulted.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:50:51.683Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 236,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden issue a veto before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7642/Will-Joe-Biden-issue-a-veto-before-2023",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes if President Biden issues a veto of legislation by the End Date listed below.\nFor purposes of this market, a qualifying veto shall include a \"pocket veto.\"\nThis market will be resolved based on the summary of vetoes on the senate.gov website, currently available upon launch of this market at https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:05:04.136Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 19173
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7270/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Ohio Governor. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Mike DeWine",
- "probability": 0.5945945945945945,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Renacci",
- "probability": 0.31531531531531526,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joe Blystone",
- "probability": 0.036036036036036036,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Jordan",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jon Husted",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mary Taylor",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Adam Rodgers",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Warren Davidson",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dave Yost",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:58:58.223Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 100433
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Mike DeWine, Jim Renacci, Joe Blystone, Jim Jordan, Jon Husted, Mary Taylor, Adam Rodgers, Warren Davidson, Dave Yost"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Senate pass a bill via reconciliation by April 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7653/Will-the-Senate-pass-a-bill-via-reconciliation-by-April-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on December 21, 2021, but in a vote that concludes prior to the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate passes a bill through the reconciliation process established by the Congressional Budget Act of 1974.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:05:26.984Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 69375
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5173/transformers-effect-on-ai-research/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "OpenAI's transformer based [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) has generated a lot of hype around the capabilities of current methods in deep learning. GPT-3 seems to be capable of creative works of writing as shown by [Gwern](https://www.gwern.net/GPT-3). This creative potential, if applied to scientific writing or code generation, may accelerate research progress. If successfully applied to deep learning research, this acceleration may be self-reinforcing potentially having implications on the development of an AGI system. Indeed the Metaculus question [\"When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) updated 10 years forward in the months following the announcement of GPT-3.\nWill transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?\nThis question resolves positively if by 2025 there are at least 5 papers which successfully used transformer derived architectures to find improved neural network architectures or architecture components. Each paper must either use the transformer model to generate code for the architecture or to generate a natural language description of the architecture. Each of these papers must be cited at least 100 times as indicated by the corresponding Google Scholar page.\nThe code and/or description produced by the transformer model need not be complete or bug-free -- i.e. the authors may use the transformer output as inspiration. The architecture components considered must be described by the paper authors as improving on the state-of-the-art with respect to some benchmark of the authors' choosing. The 5 papers need not be particularly distinct. If they all describe similar architectural innovations, this question will still resolve positive.\nThis question uses Metaculus user [Barnett's](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/108770/) definition of \"Transformer derived\":\nDefine a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a \"transformer\" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,\nIs it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?\nAfter one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer \"Yes\". \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:18:20.665Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 89,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:12:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-01T08:12:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Was the July 28, 2015, Serbian lottery drawing rigged?",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/was-the-july-28-2015-serbian-lottery-drawing-rigged-11364",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "On July 28, 2015, a live broadcast of the Serbian lottery drawing [appeared to show one of the winning numbers before it was drawn](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DxUvX5tsqY&feature=youtu.be&t=14). This led to widespread [accusations](http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33746126) [of ](http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKCN0Q41V120150730)[corruption ](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/serbian-lottery-probe-after-winning-number-called-before-its-drawn-10430922.html)in the media, and an [official investigation](http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/serbian-lottery-investigated-police-after-6164657) into the circumstances of the irregularities.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "The Serbian lottery drawing that was broadcast on July 28, 2015 was carried out legitimately.",
- "probability": 0.994999181403421,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The Serbian lottery drawing that was broadcast on July 28, 2015 was rigged, but the video of the drawing does not show evidence of the rigging.",
- "probability": 0.004795710863869053,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The Serbian lottery drawing that was broadcast on July 28, 2015 was rigged, and the video of the drawing shows evidence of the rigging.",
- "probability": 0.00020510773270973915,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:09:13.888Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "The Serbian lottery drawing that was broadcast on July 28, 2015 was carried out legitimately., The Serbian lottery drawing that was broadcast on July 28, 2015 was rigged, but the video of the drawing does not show evidence of the rigging., The Serbian lottery drawing that was broadcast on July 28, 2015 was rigged, and the video of the drawing shows evidence of the rigging."
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1348/will-a-mission-to-land-a-spacecraft-on-europa-launch-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Europa provides astrobiologists with the best possibility of finding extraterrestrial life within our solar system. Many scientists believe that beneath the icy surface of Europa there lies a [vast saltwater ocean](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/moons/jupiter-moons/europa/in-depth/). It is because of the presence of this large body of liquid water beneath the surface that scientists believe that Europa may provide insight into the origins of life. \nGalileo Galilei discovered Europa and the other Galilean moons in 1610. In 1979 Voyager 2 gave us our [first closeup image](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/spaceimages/details.php?id=pia00459) of the moon (click [here](https://www.space.com/15498-europa-sdcmp.html) for a complete list of missions to Europa). During the [Galileo Mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/galileo/) (1989-2003) Galileo passed near Europa and provided compelling evidence for the existence of saltwater oceans beneath the icy surface. Then in 2013, the Hubble Telescope supplied evidence of [erupting water plumes](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-363) at the surface. \nTwo upcoming missions will provide additional information about the nature of Europa. First, the [Europa Clipper](https://europa.nasa.gov/about-clipper/overview) mission will conduct multiply flybys of the moon in the 2020s. This spacecraft will be equipped with cameras, spectrometers, radar, and magnetometers in order to assess the composition of the surface and the underlying oceans. Second, the European Space Agency’s [JUICE](http://sci.esa.int/juice/) mission (Jupiter ICy moons Explorer) will launch in 2022 and arrive at Jupiter in 2029. Though Ganymede is the primary target of this mission, JUICE will still fly by Europa twice in an effort to ascertain the composition of the surface and underlying subsurface oceans. \nQuestion is resolved as positive if a credible news agency reports that a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launches by December 31, 2029.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:21:18.714Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 170,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2041?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7994/nanoparticle-cancer-therapy-approved-by-2041/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question supports and is linked to a fortified essay on the future of nanotechnology by Physical Chemist Kevin Ausman. [Click here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8012/when-will-we-see-real-nanotechnology/) to read the full essay. There is a related question, whether nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy will be approved by 2031, [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7981/nanoparticle-cancer-therapy-approved-by-2031/).\nInorganic nanoparticles are small collections of a few thousand to a few billion atoms, typically ranging from 1 to 100 nm in diameter. They have many peculiar chemical and physical properties, which make them attractive for designing therapies.\nAn example of such technology is called [Aurolase Therapy](https://nanospectra.com/technology/), and has been in development for two decades. It's now in [pilot studies](https://www.pnas.org/content/116/37/18590) in humans with early results giving reason for optimism.\nWill an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2041?\nThis resolves when the FDA gives full approval to a cancer therapy that uses inorganic nanoparticles in the patient's treatment. The therapy must target the cancer cells rather than downstream symptoms. We specify \"inorganic\" to exclude lipid nanoparticles etc.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:34:47.240Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2036-01-01T20:08:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2041-01-02T02:14:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2221-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under \"Shareholder Deck\" here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q3 2021 totaled 232,102 ([Tesla](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/TWPKBV_TSLA_Q3_2021_Quarterly_Update_SI1AKE.pdf)). \nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 700,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 700,000 and 1,000,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 1,000,000 but fewer than 1,300,000",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1,300,000 and 1,600,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 1,600,000 but fewer than 1,900,000",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1,900,000 or more",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:02:07.351Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 149,
- "numforecasters": 70,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 700,000, Between 700,000 and 1,000,000, inclusive, More than 1,000,000 but fewer than 1,300,000, Between 1,300,000 and 1,600,000, inclusive, More than 1,600,000 but fewer than 1,900,000, 1,900,000 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 1 January 2067, will any medical interventions for healthy adults extend average lifespans by at least 25 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4429/25-year-lifespan-increase-discovery-by-2067/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2017, [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) conducted [an investigation on the mechanisms of aging](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging). A [section](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging#Indefinite_vs._moderate_healthy_life_extension) of their writeup considers indefinite life extension, as distinct from modest extension of lifespan, and concludes, with 7% confidence, that by 2067 some collection of medical interventions for adults will have been shown to extend adult lifespan by at least 25 years.\nBy 1 January 2067, will any medical interventions for healthy adults extend average lifespans by at least 25 years?\nThis question will resolve according to Open Philanthropy's explicit criteria:*\nBy January 1, 2067, there will be [some] collection of medical interventions for adults that are healthy apart from normal aging, which, according to conventional wisdom in the medical community, have been shown to increase the average lifespan of such adults by at least 25 years (compared with not taking the interventions).\nThe prediction is called off if some other innovations cause a historically exceptional increase in the rate of scientific progress during this period (such as the development of transformative AI capabilities). The prediction excludes diet, exercise, and lifestyle, as well as existing medical interventions for healthy people (such as currently available vaccines).\nMetaculus administrators will judge whether the criteria have been satisfied.\n--\n*The wording in the original Open Philanthropy report has been slightly altered so that a positive resolution corresponds to the occurrence of the relevant medical breakthrough (rather than to its failure to occur).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:04:29.925Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 111,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-20T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2067-01-01T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2067-01-01T03:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2023, will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of landing military personnel on the Pratas Islands without authorization?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2201-before-1-january-2023-will-taiwan-publicly-accuse-the-people-s-republic-of-china-of-landing-military-personnel-on-pratas-islands-without-authorization",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Taiwan has raised concerns regarding potential actions by the People's Republic of China in the Pratas Islands ([News.com.au](https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/china-reportedly-debated-attacking-taiwans-pratas-islands/news-story/d12105d9ef57b6c5f448b1e5d7c1297a), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-16/a-far-flung-taiwan-island-risks-triggering-a-u-s-china-clash), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/the-pratas-islands-a-new-flashpoint-in-the-south-china-sea/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:02:36.767Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 130,
- "numforecasters": 84,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be Senate majority leader on Feb. 1, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7544/Who-will-be-Senate-majority-leader-on-Feb-1,-2023",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Senate majority leader at the End Date listed below. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/01/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Mitch McConnell",
- "probability": 0.6470588235294118,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chuck Schumer",
- "probability": 0.19607843137254902,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Thune",
- "probability": 0.0784313725490196,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Cornyn",
- "probability": 0.029411764705882353,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Barrasso",
- "probability": 0.0196078431372549,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dick Durbin",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Patty Murray",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joni Ernst",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:02:09.045Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 47419
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Mitch McConnell, Chuck Schumer, John Thune, John Cornyn, John Barrasso, Dick Durbin, Patty Murray, Joni Ernst"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1332/will-global-malaria-mortality-rates-be-reduced-by-90-when-compared-with-2015-rates-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the [2017 WHO Malaria report](http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/259492/9789241565523-eng.pdf?sequence=1), the WHO defines various goals for reduction of malaria burden worldwide. One of which is a 90% reduction, or more, in worldwide malaria mortality by 2030, compared with 2015 levels. (see p. 43 for current numbers, and trendlines. The \"global\" value is the relevant one here.)\nWill this goal be realized? \nThe WHO publishes an annual report on malaria, in which they report on the previous year's mortality rate. This metric should be used to decide whether the goal has been reached.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:20:36.231Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 429,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a total sum amounting to at least 10% of the money in all US DAFs be expropriated by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4328/will-a-total-sum-amounting-to-at-least-10-of-the-money-in-all-us-dafs-be-expropriated-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [donor-advised fund](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donor-advised_fund) (DAF) is \"a charitable giving vehicle administered by a public charity created to manage charitable donations on behalf of organizations, families, or individuals.\" The sponsoring organization of a fund—often a subsidiary of a brokerage firm such as [Fidelity Charitable](https://www.fidelitycharitable.org/) or [Schwab Charitable](https://www.schwabcharitable.org/)—is a 501(c)(3) registered charity that accepts tax-deductible donations from the creator of the DAF. The creator can then make grant recommendations to the sponsoring organization.\nSponsoring organizations legally own any donated money, and have no obligation to abide by grant recommendations. There have been cases in the past of DAFs [refusing to use donated money as directed](https://www.insidephilanthropy.com/home/2016/1/3/donor-advised-funds-drawbacks)[1] or using donated money [for its own benefit](https://www.philanthropy.com/article/Nevada-Court-Says/212899). To my knowledge, no large reputable DAF has ever done this.\nWhat is the probability that at least 10% of all funds held in DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?\nFunds are considered expropriated if:\n---The DAF refuses to make a grant recommendation, insofar as the grant recommendation is legal. \n---The DAF spends donated money on purposes other than a donor's recommendation, not including ordinary account expenses[2]. \n---The DAF begins charging unreasonable expenses (e.g., a 5% annual fee). \n---An outside party, such as the US government, seizes control of all or a substantial portion of the money (including by taxation). \nThe following situations do not qualify as expropriation:\n---The US government imposes a distribution requirement, such as the 5% annual distribution requirement that foundations must follow. \n---The DAF refuses to abide by a grant recommendation because it legally cannot, e.g., because the would-be grant recipient is not a 501(c)(3). \n---The DAF forcibly closes (e.g., due to Fidelity Charitable going bankrupt), but lets donors decide how to grant all remaining money. \n[1] Article is paywalled, but the gist is that the Jewish Community Foundation of Los Angeles refused to comply with a donor's request to donate to a charity supporting Palestine.\n[2] At present, Fidelity Charitable charges a 0.6% annual fee. Most other DAFs charge similar fees.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:03:16.193Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-07-16T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8829/new-supreme-court-justice-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5457/date-next-scotus-vacancy-arises/) \nThe Supreme Court has nine members: eight Associate Justices, and one Chief Justice. A position on the court is a lifetime appointment. Justices must be appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate. Once appointed, justices hold their seat until they are impeached, retire, or die.\nWill a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?\nIf a Supreme Court justice is nominated and confirmed between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, then this question will resolve positively. If the US Supreme Court is rendered non-existant, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nIn order for this question to resolve positive a justice must be nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate by the resolution date. A justice being nominated and not confirmed; or being added only via a recess appointment, would not be sufficient to cause this question to resolve positive unless they are also confirmed by the Senate before the resolve date. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.050000000000000044,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:13:26.225Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 197,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T04:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2773/will-nigel-farage-become-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Nigel Paul Farage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage), born 3 April 1964, is a British politician, broadcaster, and political analyst currently serving as leader of the Brexit Party since March 2019 and as a Member of the European Parliament for the South East England constituency since 1999. He is best known as the former leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) from 2006 to 2009 and again from 2010 to 2016.\nFarage's decades-long campaign for the UK to leave the European Union culminated in the [2016 Brexit vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), in which the UK voted to withdraw from the EU. Since that vote, the UK has failed to achieve a negotiated exit from the EU and has agreed to extend the negotiating period until October 31 2019. \nIn May 2019, Farage's new Brexit Party topped the poll in the [2019 European Parliament elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom), becoming by far the largest party by number of UK seats in the European Parliament, and also the largest single party overall in the European Parliament. \nThis question asks: Before 01 January 2023, will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland?\nResolves positively on credible media reports that Nigel Farage holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland at any time before 01 January 2023, and negatively otherwise.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:35:06.042Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 356,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-05-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-07T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3749/will-the-key-to-any-pre-2020-wikileaks-insurance-file-be-publicly-available-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[WikiLeaks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WikiLeaks) is an organisation founded by Julian Assange that publishes news leaks and classified media provided by anonymous sources. From time to time, WikiLeaks publishes encrypted \"[insurance files](https://heavy.com/news/2019/04/julian-assange-dead-mans-switch-wikileaks-insurance-files/)\".\nThere has been much speculation about the purpose of these files. Some of these files are intended as permanent records of upcoming releases, to ensure information is preserved. According to Julian Assange:\nWe openly distribute … encrypted backups of materials that we view are highly sensitive that we are to publish in the coming year… So that there is very little possibility that that material, even if we are completely wiped out, will be taken from the historical record… Ideally, we will never reveal the key… Because there is things, like, … redactions sometimes need to be done on this material.”\nHowever, there are also theories claiming that some of these insurance files constitute a \"[dead man's switch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_man%27s_switch)\" that is only to be released in case something bad were to happen to Assange or to WikiLeaks.\nResolution: If the key to any WikiLeaks insurance file released before 2020 is publicly available on January 1, 2030, this question resolves positively. In particular, it does not matter whether WikiLeaks intentionally decides to release the key or some hacker leaks it; as long as the key is publicly available, it counts.\nIn the past the media falsely reported that the key to insurance.aes256 was leaked. Therefore, to ensure accurate resolution, we will rely on the discretion of Metaculus moderators. As a guideline, there should be an independent, tech-savvy demonstration that the key actually unlocks the given insurance file.\nFor the purpose of this question, all encrypted WikiLeaks insurance files publicly released before 2020 count. I believe the following list is comprehensive, but I cannot guarantee that there are no omissions or errors.\n---Date: 2010-07-28, Size: 1.4 GB, Name: insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2012-02-22, Size: 65 GB, Name: wikileaks-insurance-20120222.tar.bz2.aes \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 3.6 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-A.aes256 \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 49 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-B.aes256 \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 349 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-C.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-06-03, Size: 88 GB, Name: 2016-06-03_insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 512 MB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_EC.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 1.3 GB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_UK.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 3.0 GB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_US.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-12-09, Size: 83 GB, Name: 2016-12-09_WL-Insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2017-01-25, Size: 281 MB, Name: 2017-01-25_WL-Insurance.aes256 \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:56:30.753Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 92,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be over 1 million new COVID-19 cases for the week ending February 11, 2022?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/WKCASE-025",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If the total number of reported new COVID-19 cases in the US in the week ending February 11, 2022 is greater than 1 million, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see WKCASE in the Rulebook for more details.\n\nThis market will expire the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of data for February 11, 2022 or February 26, 2022.. The resolution source is: The total sum of reported new COVID-19 cases published by the Centers for Disease Control's (CDC) \"Trends in Number of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US Reported to CDC\" for the week ending February 11, 2022. (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.010000000000000009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4,
- "yes_bid": 99,
- "yes_ask": 100,
- "spread": 1,
- "shares_volume": 12610
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1444/will-an-openly-lgbtq-person-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-by-2041/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The LGBTQ movement has made [massive strides](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/19/us/lgbt-rights-milestones-fast-facts/index.html) during the 21st century in the United States. Less than 60 years ago engaging in consensual homosexual acts in private was [illegal](http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1989-06-26/news/8902120553_1_gay-bar-anti-gay-activists-first-openly-gay-supervisor) in parts of the country. But progress has been undeniable. In 2015 the U.S. Supreme Court [legalized gay marriage](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/26/politics/supreme-court-same-sex-marriage-ruling/index.html) just seven years after the country elected its first President who was not a straight white male. \nWill an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?\nNew resolution criteria:\nThis question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must, during the campaign, either: \n---Publicly identify as something else than cisgender. \n---Publicly identify as something else than heterosexual. \nThis question will resolve negatively if all candidates elected president by 2041 identify as both cisgender and heterosexual.\nResolution will be by credible media reports.\nOld resolution criteria:\nThis question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must be lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or queer. This question will resolve negatively if no openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president by 2041. An ambiguous resolution will result if a candidates sexuality is brought forth during their campaign from a source other than themselves and they continue to win the presidency.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:23:03.977Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 304,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-08T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-11-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-11-07T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8547/us-part-of-the-open-skies-treaty-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "\"The Treaty on Open Skies establishes a program of unarmed aerial surveillance flights over the entire territory of its participants. The treaty is designed to enhance mutual understanding and confidence by giving all participants, regardless of size, a direct role in gathering information about military forces and activities of concern to them. It entered into force on January 1, 2002, and currently has 34 party states. The idea of allowing countries to openly surveil each other is thought to prevent misunderstandings (e.g., to assure a potential opponent that one's country is not about to go to war) and limit the escalation of tensions. It also provides mutual accountability for countries to follow through on treaty promises. Open Skies is one of the most wide-ranging international efforts to date promoting openness and transparency of military forces and activities.\" ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_Open_Skies))\nThe US withdrew from the treaty in November 2020. \"Moscow [then] unsuccessfully sought guarantees from NATO allies that they wouldn’t transfer the data collected during their observation flights over Russia to the U.S.\" ([source](https://apnews.com/article/russia-leaves-open-skies-treaty-e58019b80ae95e12007265aedfac229b)) Russia withdrew from the treaty itself in June 2021.\nSee also:\n---[By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8550/russia-and-the-open-skies-treaty-by-2024/) \nBy 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?\nThe question resolves positively if at least three reputable sources by 2024 state that the US has clearly announced it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty (and not just that the US would rejoin if some condition is met). This announcement must be an official announcement by one of the following: the US President; Secretary of Defense; Secretary of State; a similarly important and relevant member of the government; or the head of one of the US's armed services. We will also count claims made by a spokesperson for the aformentioned people and organizations (unless contested by the person or another key person from the organization).\n(If a forecaster feels there's a decent chance such an announcement would be made by a person or entity whose membership on that list is debatable or by a person or entity who isn't on that list but should be, please raise that in the comments.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:59:27.415Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any of these Reddit alternatives be more popular than Reddit by 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4882/will-any-of-these-reddit-alternatives-be-more-popular-than-reddit-by-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Reddit [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reddit)\nan American social news aggregation, web content rating, and discussion website.\nA host of Reddit alternative websites have been created, primarily as a response to perceived overreach of censorship on Reddit (especially of right wing points of view). \nThis question asks:\nWill any of the reddit alternatives listed below be more popular than Reddit in January 2026, as measured by [Alexa Traffic Rank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet#Alexa_Traffic_Rank)?\nThe list of alternatives considered here have been curated from [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/RedditAlternatives/comments/hi97fz/list_of_active_reddit_alternatives_v5/) from the subreddit /r/RedditAlternatives. They are as follows:\n---[minds](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/minds.com) - [minds.com](http://minds.com) \n---[voat](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/voat.co) - [voat.co](http://voat.co) \n---[steemit](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/steemit.com) - [steemit.com](http://steemit.com) \n---[papaly](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/papaly.com) - [papaly.com](http://papaly.com) \n---[saidit](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/saidit.net) - [saidit.net](http://saidit.net) \n---[notabug](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/notabug.io) - [notabug.io](http://notabug.io) \n---[snapzu](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/snapzu.com) - [snapzu.com](http://snapzu.com) \n---[ruqqus](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/ruqqus.com) - [ruqqus.com](http://ruqqus.com) \nFor reference, Reddit is [currently ranked](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/reddit.com) 20th on the internet, as of July 23, 2020.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:12:44.250Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 106,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will armed conflicts between the national military forces, and/or law enforcement personnel of the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8051/100-deaths-from-china-us-conflict-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A previous Metaculus question asked about a [great power war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/) and whether the [US and others would intervene](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7812/taiwan-to-receive-support-in-china-conflict/) in a [conflict over Taiwan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/). Some scholars have warned about a [Thucydides Trap](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thucydides_Trap) that could lead to a war between the US and China, over Taiwan, the South China Sea, or some other issue.\nWill armed conflicts between the national military forces, and/or law enforcement personnel of the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occurs before January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the United States and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths. \n---There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the United States and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths. Please note: positive resolution could in theory be the result of a few incidents separated by many years if the total number of deaths from such incidents will reach at least 100 from now till the end of 2049. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.29,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:37:09.140Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2032-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3469/will-the-united-states-institute-a-military-draft-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The United States has employed military conscription during five separate conflicts in American history, most recently in the Vietnam war, ending in 1973. If the United States enters another large war, it might begin conscripting soldiers once again.\nThis question resolves positively if any military personnel* are conscripted for the military in the United States before January 1st, 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n* \"military personnel\" here includes the Coast Guard.\n\"conscription\" here does not include the Individual Ready Reserve or Stop-Loss activation.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:50:24.836Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 163,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a vaccine targeting the Omicron variant be available in the US before April 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-vaccine-specifically-targeting-the-omicron-variant-be-available-for-access-by-the-us-population-before-april-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "If a vaccine engineered to specifically provide protection against the Omicron variant of COVID-19, whether or not it additionally protects against other variants of SARS-CoV-2, is released for public use in the US, regardless of whether its use is restricted to particular population segments, before April 1, 2022, 12:00:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe source used to resolve this market will be official information released by the FDA (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization) and/or other official information from the government of the United States of America.\n\nNote, this market is only for a vaccine’s availability in the United States, and does not cover any vaccine’s availability in any other country.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1457873091858155761355406273937842",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8542126908141844238644593726062158",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.518Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "44",
- "liquidity": "3884.58",
- "tradevolume": "6961.52",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0xEb588C04EaaBDd079d797AC9d9A41e22AF754b08"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6723/dominant-assurance-contract-venture-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assurance_contract),\nAn assurance contract, also known as a provision point mechanism, or crowdaction, is a game-theoretic mechanism and a financial technology that facilitates the voluntary creation of public goods and club goods in the face of collective action problems such as the free rider problem.\nThe free rider problem is that there may be actions that would benefit a large group of people, but once the action is taken, there is no way to exclude those who did not pay for the action from the benefits. This leads to a game theoretic problem: all members of a group might be better off if an action were taken, and the members of the group contributed to the cost of the action, but many members of the group may make the perfectly rational decision to let others pay for it, then reap the benefits for free, possibly with the result that no action is taken. The result of this rational game play is lower utility for everyone.\n[...]\nDominant assurance contracts, created by Alex Tabarrok, involve an extra component, an entrepreneur who profits when the quorum is reached and pays the signors extra if it is not. If the quorum is not formed, the signors do not pay their share and indeed actively profit from having participated since they keep the money the entrepreneur paid them. Conversely, if the quorum succeeds, the entrepreneur is compensated for taking the risk of the quorum failing. Thus, a player will benefit whether or not the quorum succeeds; if it fails the player reaps a monetary return, and if it succeeds, the player pays only a small amount more than under an assurance contract, and the public good will be provided.\nTabarrok asserts that this creates a dominant strategy of participation for all players. Because all players will calculate that it is in their best interests to participate, the contract will succeed, and the entrepreneur will be rewarded. In a meta-game, this reward is an incentive for other entrepreneurs to enter the DAC market, driving down the cost disadvantage of dominant assurance contract versus regular assurance contracts.\n[Kickstarter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kickstarter) is a successful platform for creating assurance contracts, but NOT dominant assurance contracts. Alex Tabarrok has [noted](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/08/a-test-of-dominant-assurance-contracts.html), \"Kickstarter has made assurance contracts familiar, perhaps the next evolution of funding mechanisms will do the same for dominant assurance contracts.\"\nWill there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that a prominent platform for facilitating the creation and distribution of dominant assurance contracts, as defined in Alex Tabarrok's [original paper on the matter](http://mason.gmu.edu/~atabarro/PrivateProvision.pdf), comes into existence. A \"prominent platform\" is defined as a platform that meets ANY of the following conditions,\n--- \nIts owners credibly assert credibly that their website, app, or program has received an average of at least 5000 unique daily hits in the last 30 days.\n--- \nAny of the following newspapers have produced at least one article which was primarily about them: USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, Newsday, Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, Chicago Tribune, The Washington Post.\n--- \nA Wikipedia page about the platform survives for at least 1 year without being deleted.\nAdmins will use their best judgement, in consultation with the community, to determine the right resolution. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:53:07.596Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will >1000 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8375/offensive-nuclear-detonations-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, [nine states possess a total of ~13,000 nuclear warheads](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/). Over the coming decades, it's possible that some of those states will abandon their nuclear weapons, that other states will develop nuclear weapons, and that global stockpiles sizes will substantially rise or fall. \nAnd if nuclear conflict does occur, it's at least possible that that could involve the use of anywhere from just a single nuclear weapon to all the nuclear weapons that existed at the start of the conflict (or even more). A clearer sense of how many weapons might be used could inform decisions about how much various actors should prioritize nuclear risk reduction and which interventions are most valuable for nuclear risk reduction. (For example, the likelier it is that only a small number of nuclear weapons would be used, the less important it'd be to reduce the chance of arms races or of escalation from limited to large-scale nuclear war.)\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nSee also\n--- \n[Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8374/offensive-nuclear-detonations-by-2050/)\n--- \n[How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\nWill >1000 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if the number of offensive nuclear weapons detonations in total between the opening of this question and 2050-01-01 is larger than 1,000. If there is no fatality from an offensive nuclear detonations before 2050, then this question will resolve ambiguously. That is, this question conditions on at least one fatality from an offensive detonation occurring by 2050. \nResolution criteria will come from historical consensus as of 2055-01-01.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:51:54.662Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-06-04T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2055-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Apollo 10's Lunar Module be recovered by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2762/will-apollo-10s-lunar-module-be-recovered-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Lunar Module](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_Lunar_Module) flown on [Apollo 10](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_10) is the only flown lunar module which didn't end up crashing into the Moon or burning up in Earth's atmosphere.\nAfter 'dress rehearsal' testing in lunar orbit, during which the Lunar Module came within 8.4 nautical miles of the lunar surface, the ascent engine performed a burn to depletion which sent the craft into interplanetary space and the vehicle is currently in a heliocentric orbit. The location of the Apollo 10 Lunar Module is unknown as of May 2019, but efforts are underway to find it. \nAs a unique historical artefact from the original golden age of human spaceflight, this Lunar Module would certainly make for an interesting museum exhibit. \nThis question asks: by 1 January 2050, will the lost ascent stage of the Apollo 10 Lunar Module be recovered (i.e. located, captured, and physically transported to some location where humans have a presence at that time, such as Earth, the Moon, Mars or elsewhere) successfully?\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:34:50.353Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 125,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-05-24T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter \"S\".\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Uhuru Kenyatta",
- "probability": 0.34615384615384615,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Muhammadu Buhari",
- "probability": 0.2019230769230769,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Abiy Ahmed",
- "probability": 0.18269230769230768,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune",
- "probability": 0.125,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Emmerson Mnangagwa",
- "probability": 0.038461538461538464,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Paul Kagame",
- "probability": 0.028846153846153844,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nana Akufo-Addo",
- "probability": 0.028846153846153844,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa",
- "probability": 0.019230769230769232,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Félix Tshisekedi",
- "probability": 0.019230769230769232,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:55:48.495Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 189871
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Uhuru Kenyatta, Muhammadu Buhari, Abiy Ahmed, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, Emmerson Mnangagwa, Paul Kagame, Nana Akufo-Addo, Cyril Ramaphosa, Félix Tshisekedi, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9539/russian-troops-enter-kharkiv/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Kiev, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-enter-kiev/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9517/russian-troops-enter-mariupol/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9566/russian-troops-in-odessa-2022/)\n[Kharkiv](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kharkiv) is a strategically-important city with its city limits located only about 40 kilometers (25 miles) from the Russian border. [According to Al-Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/20/fears-of-russian-invasion-trouble-ukraines-silicon-valley), in the event of an all-out Russian invasion of Ukraine, Kharkiv could be the first city to be attacked. \nAccording to [CNN and the Ukranian Defense Ministry](https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/18/europe/ukraine-intelligence-russia-military-build-up-intl/index.html) Russia has at least 127,000 troops massed outside of Ukraine as of January 19, 2022.\nWill Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine Before December 31, 2022, according to credible media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). For purposes of this question, \"entering Kharkiv\" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Kharkiv for any length of time without the consent of the Ukranian government. A repelled attack on the city still would count, provided it could be ascertained to a high degree of confidence that at least 100 Russian troops were within city limits.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.32,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:44:50.913Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 95,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-22T19:30:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7575/2024-taiwanese-presidential-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As one of the most successful market democracies in Asia, Taiwan faces geopolitical challenges from PRC due to its longstanding territorial claim over the island and threat of military invasion/annexation. Relatedly, a consistent divide in Taiwanese politics has been the attitude towards reunification. \nThe \"Pan-Blue\" coalition led by the Kuomintang (KMT) is sympathetic to some version of integration or reunification, whereas the incumbent \"Pan-Green\" coalition led by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is in favor of Taiwanese independence. [The next presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Taiwanese_presidential_election) will have implications for cross-strait relations, US-China relations, and the future of Taiwanese sovereignty.\nWill the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?\nThe question resolves positive if a candidate nominated by the DPP wins the presidential election, according to the Central Election Commission or other reputable media sources.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:20:03.068Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 45,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-28T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T20:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-05-24T19:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/111/will-there-be-a-total-solar-eclipse-on-june-25-2522/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [NASA](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/solar.html), as of question writing the next total solar eclipse over the U.S. will be August 21, 2017. It will cut right through the center of the country, in a swathe from Oregon to South Carolina.\nA little over 500 years later, on June 25, 2522, there is [predicted to be](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2501-2600.html) a nice long (longest of that century) solar eclipse that will pass over Africa. \nIn terms of astronomy, the 2522 eclipse prediction is nearly as secure at the 2017 one: the [primary uncertainty](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEhelp/rotation.html) is the exact timing of the eclipse, and stems from uncertainties in the rate of change of Earth's rotation -- but this uncertainty should be of order minutes only.\nHowever, 500 years is a long time for a technological civilization, and if ours survives on this timescale, it could engineer the solar system in various ways and potentially invalidate the assumptions of this prediction. With that in mind:\nWill there be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522?\nFor the question to resolve positively, the calendar system used in evaluating the resolution must match the Gregorian calendar system used in the eclipse predictions; the eclipse must be of Sol by a Moon with at least 95% of its original structure by volume unaltered, and must be observable from Earth's surface, with \"Earth\" defined by our current Earth with at least 95% of its original structure by volume altered only by natural processes.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.050000000000000044,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:50.343Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 372,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-01-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2522-06-26T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the floor price of CryptoPunks be above 75 ETH on February 11th?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-floor-price-of-cryptopunks-be-above-75-eth-on-february-11th",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether CryptoPunks will maintain a floor price of over 75 ETH on February 11 2022 (at 12:00 PM ET), according to https://www.larvalabs.com/cryptopunks/forsale#.\n\nThis market will resolve to 'Yes' if on the aforementioned check time, there are no CryptoPunks listed for 75 ETH or lower on the official Larva Labs website, and 'No' otherwise.\n\nOnly listings that have existed for at least an hour are valid for this market (as verified by the transaction hash time).",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.05283716556983120039410632754441223",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9471628344301687996058936724555878",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.518Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "168",
- "liquidity": "10291.53",
- "tradevolume": "21299.80",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x8f92b6BcBebf519915F00F10a8fE59CcAf99fF43"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "A major United States earthquake by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. \nThe [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by \"The Big One,\" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. \n23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging.\nWill a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:12:54.307Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 804,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-15T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8766/omicron-variant-less-deadly-than-delta/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On 25 November, South Africa announced that it was tracking a new variant, B.1.1.529/Omicron, and shared the following:\n---New variant detected in South Africa (lineage B.1.1.529) with high number of mutations, which are concerning for predicted immune evasion and transmissibility \n---B.1.1.529 genomes produced from samples collected 12-20 Nov from Gauteng, SA (n=77), Botswana (n=4) and Hong Kong (n=1, traveler from SA) \n---B.1.1.529 can be detected by one particular PCR assay (before whole genome sequencing) \n---Early signs from diagnostic laboratories that B.1.1.529 has rapidly increased in Gauteng and may already be present in most provinces \n---Mutation profile predicted to give significant immune evasion and enhanced transmissibility \nSee also [these](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1036501/Technical_Briefing_29_published_26_November_2021.pdf) [three](https://assets.uzleuven.be/files/2021-11/genomic_surveillance_update_211126.pdf) [assessments](https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-%28b.1.1.529%29-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern) by the UK HSA, Belgian NRL, and WHO respectively.\nWill the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?\nThis will resolve positive if, out of the first 4 peer-reviewed published studies that provide estimates of the odds/risk/hazard of death due to infection with the Omicron variant, at least 3 indicate that the odds/risk/hazard of death due to infection with the Omicron is less than that due to infection with the Delta variant. \nThe relevant studies must be rigorous and must make direct comparisons between infections with Omicron in a group and infections with Delta in a similar group. Moreover, at the very least, the variables of age and comorbidities should be controlled for. \nAt least 3 of the first 4 relevant studies that meet the above criteria should specify that they've found a statistically significant decrease (p < 0.05) in Omicron's lethality relative to Delta. Otherwise, this resolves negatively —e.g. negative resolution will occur if only 2 clearly state they've found a statistically significance decrease, 1 has mixed results, and 1 says that they did not find a statistically significant decrease.\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8757/omicron-variant-deadlier-than-delta/) question on whether the Omicron variant will be more lethal than Delta.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.020000000000000018,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:11:36.961Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1367,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-29T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At close of business on 4 May 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 March 2022?",
- "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
- "platform": "Good Judgment",
- "description": "The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system. The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its May meeting is scheduled for 3-4 May 2022.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Lower",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Same",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-09T17:00:03.974Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4
- },
- "extra": {
- "superforecastercommentary": "
BACKGROUND: \n \n Opened 17 December 2021 \n \n The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight\n lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve\n and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system.\n The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open\n Market Committee (FOMC).\n Its May meeting is scheduled for 3-4 May 2022. \n \n Examples of Superforecaster commentary in italics \n \n \n \n AT A GLANCE: \n \n 4 February 2022 - According to Good Judgment's professional\n Superforecasters, there is an 83% probability that the upper limit of the\n Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate on 4 May 2022\n will be higher than it was on 16 March 2022. The Superforecasters assess\n that even with an expected rate hike in March, another one could follow in\n May to signal that the Fed is serious about tackling inflation. They point\n out, however, that rate hikes have rarely been announced in May in the\n past and that a continuing economic fallout from Covid-19 or major\n geopolitical risks may lead to a delay in the start of rate increases. \n \n \n
This is a preview only. \n \n FutureFirst subscribers enjoy full access to Good Judgment's\n standard reports containing the consensus forecast and\n Superforecasters' rationales since the launch of the question. \n Learn more about FutureFirst\n to follow questions that matter to your organization. \n
\n \n
[Start of Preview] \n
\n \n SUPERFORECASTER COMMENTARY HIGHLIGHTS: \n \n 24 Jan 22 - Comment: I feel strongly that consistent drum beat of\n increases will do more than sporadic increases. I also feel that the\n FOMC will skip increases around mid-term elections to avoid being a\n target. Most observers feel 3-4 increases are in the cards this year,\n thus I am counting this as one of those. Early increases carry more\n weight than \"late\" increases in convincing the markets. \n \n 19 Jan 22 - Comment: Outside view: Rate hikes or cuts have rarely\n been announced during the Fed's May meeting. The question is whether the\n Fed will see a need for more aggressive action or not. Maybe not. In\n addition to raising the interest rate hike, the tapering of monthly\n asset purchases and decreasing of the balance sheet are also in the\n works. \n \n 18 Jan 22 - Comment: The apparent momentum for a March hike reduces\n the probability of a May hike. However, assuming the potential of four\n 0.25% hikes in 2022, there's still a good chance we'd see two of them by\n the end of the May FOMC meeting. \n \n 19 Dec 21 - Comment: The Fed has said they will have three next year\n and I think the bond buying program will be wrapped up in March. Raising\n rates will be the next logical step for them to take. \n \n 18 Dec 21 - Comment: From 1973 to 1989, the federal funds rate was\n consistently above 5.0%, including a period between December 1978 and\n September 1982 when it was above 10.0%. Subsequently, the rate worked\n its way down, and dropped below 1.0% in October 2008 and remained there\n (often at fractions of a percent) until May 2017. Covid brought us back\n down around 0.1% until the present day. When the first of the expected\n raises occurs is likely to depend on the status of Covid, including the\n Omicron variant and any other variants that are thrown our way. \n \n
[End of Preview]
\n \n \n
"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher"
- },
- {
- "title": "Was the Miss Universe 2015 mistake intentional?",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/was-the-miss-universe-2015-mistake-intentional-14197",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "On December 20, 2015, Steve Harvey incorrectly announced Miss Colombia as the winner at the Miss Universe pageant before announcing the actual winner, Miss Philippines. While some believed this was an honest mistake, others thought it was a scripted move to generate buzz for the floundering pageant industry. Meanwhile, the internet responded with multiple [memes of Steve Harvey making mistakes](http://abc7ny.com/entertainment/the-funniest-reactions-to-steve-harvey-announcing-the-wrong-miss-universe-winner/1130613/); Steve Harvey himself even released a [meme poking fun at the mix-up](https://twitter.com/IAmSteveHarvey/status/680446179209916421/photo/1) and starred in a related [T-Mobile Superbowl ad](https://youtu.be/eI8YZdejPKg).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Steve Harvey misread the winner's card by mistake.",
- "probability": 0.9620014460508962,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The mix-up was scripted by the producers without Steve Harvey's knowledge.",
- "probability": 0.033854158022774763,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The mix-up was scripted by the producers and Steve Harvey together.",
- "probability": 0.00414439592632885,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Steve Harvey misread the winner's card intentionally, without the producers' knowledge.",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:09:13.887Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Steve Harvey misread the winner's card by mistake., The mix-up was scripted by the producers without Steve Harvey's knowledge., The mix-up was scripted by the producers and Steve Harvey together., Steve Harvey misread the winner's card intentionally, without the producers' knowledge."
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Singapore be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9491/singaporean-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) \n[Lee Kuan Yew](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Kuan_Yew), the founder of Singapore, was a [big](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2009/01/behavioral_genetics_in_singapore.html) [believer](https://lkyonrace.wordpress.com/) in the [heritability of intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability_of_IQ) In his 1983 National Day Rally speech, Lee Kuan Yew [warned](https://twitter.com/BirthGauge/status/1467811127044325377) that the higher fertility among people with a lower education level would lower the population's intelligence. In 2021, Singapore's Ministry of Health [approved](https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/moh-approves-genetic-testing-for-ivf-embryos-as-a-mainstream-clinical-service) more services for genetic testing. The Ministry of Health must authorize the practice, and has only authorized it in the case where there is a risk of a genetic disorder. In a [2020 Pew survey](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/), Singaporeans were more open to \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence than most of the other populations surveyed. Singapore was [the first country in the world to approve cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/) and it has a [developed technology sector.](https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/11/a-close-look-at-singapores-thriving-startup-ecosystem/)\nWill Singapore be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively if Singapore is the first country with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\nMoreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:42:46.362Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a US Democratic President sign into law a $500 billion spending cut before 2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7978/democrat-potus-signs-500g-budget-cut-by-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is linked to a fortified essay by Arnold Kling on two competing theories of inflation. The resolution of this question is meant to support or undermine his preferred theory. [Read the essay](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7995/two-theories-of-inflation) to learn more about how this question applies to the 'Government Debt Theory' of inflation.\nA governmental [Debt Crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt_crisis) occurs when a government finds itself unable to pay back its debt. This famously happened to [Greece starting in 2009](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_government-debt_crisis), and to [Latin America in the 1980s](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_American_debt_crisis). Though fears of a Debt Crisis resurface regularly in the US, it has not happened yet.\nA likely consequence and reaction to a Debt Crisis in the US would be dramatic spending cuts, to balance the budget. \nThe current US President is Joe Biden, a Democrat, and Democrats have a reputation for being less fiscally conservative than Republicans, so this question asks:\nWill a US Democratic President sign into law a $500 billion spending cut before 2029?\nThis resolves positive if, before 2029, a Democratic US President signs into law a budget that provides for 500 billion dollars less in spending than the budget of the previous year.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:34:05.460Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 64,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-03-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 100 questions?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\nMetaculus currently uses the median forecast (which will be the same whether or not we transform forecasts into log-odds or not). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the median.\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 100 questions.\nWill mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 100 questions?\nUsing the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the median forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance. \nThe set of questions used will be the next 100 binary questions to resolve, which close after this question opens.\nIf the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:31:35.017Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-09-30T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The Democrat nominee for President in 2024 is Kamala Harris",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A185",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "Much lower than conventional wisdom",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-06-18T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the office vacancy rate for the Greater Toronto Area in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Colliers?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2166-what-will-be-the-office-vacancy-rate-for-the-greater-toronto-area-in-the-fourth-quarter-of-2022-according-to-colliers",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Multiple sources have reported increased office vacancy rates in Toronto, the Greater Toronto Area, and Canada overall as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and new work-from-home dynamics ([RENX.ca](https://renx.ca/q4-2020-office-report-major-city-snapshots-colliers/), [Canadian Real Estate](https://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/news/this-western-citys-office-vacancy-is-26-334413.aspx), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-24/office-vacancies-in-canada-reach-highest-level-since-1994), [Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/business/2021/09/23/canadian-office-vacancy-rate-hits-highest-level-since-1994-in-third-quarter.html)). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using the vacancy rate for the Greater Toronto Area as first reported by the Toronto Office Market Report Q4 2022, expected in January 2023 ([Colliers Canada](https://www.collierscanada.com/en-ca/research)). The rate for Q4 2019, before the pandemic, was 4.0%; the rate for Q3 2021, at question launch, was 8.5% ([Colliers Canada - Toronto Q4 2019](https://www.collierscanada.com/en-ca/research/greater-toronto-area-office-market-report-q4-2019), [Colliers Canada - Toronto Q3 2021](https://www.collierscanada.com/en-ca/research/toronto-office-market-report-2021-q3)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Lower than 5.0%",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 5.0% and 7.0%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher than 7.0% but lower than 9.0%",
- "probability": 0.68,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 9.0% and 11.0%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher than 11.0%",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:03:46.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 79,
- "numforecasters": 27,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 5.0%, Between 5.0% and 7.0%, inclusive, Higher than 7.0% but lower than 9.0%, Between 9.0% and 11.0%, inclusive, Higher than 11.0%"
- },
- {
- "title": "Between 25 January 2022 and 31 May 2022, will NATO and/or a NATO member state accuse Russian national military forces of invading Ukraine?",
- "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
- "platform": "Good Judgment",
- "description": "Tensions remain high between Russia and Ukraine, which includes a major military buildup near the border of Ukraine that concerns NATO and others. For the purposes of this question, \"invading Ukraine\" would mean Russia sending ground national military forces into Ukraine without consent from the Ukrainian government in Kyiv. Accusations regarding actions in Crimea would be immaterial. ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, invading Ukrainian territory outside of Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts as well as other Ukrainian territory",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-09T17:00:03.974Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4
- },
- "extra": {
- "superforecastercommentary": "
BACKGROUND: \n \n Opened 21 January 2022 \n \n Tensions remain high\n between Russia and Ukraine, which includes a major military buildup\n near the border of Ukraine\n that concerns NATO and others. For the purposes of this question,\n \"invading Ukraine\" would mean Russia sending ground national military\n forces into Ukraine without consent from the Ukrainian government in Kyiv.\n Accusations regarding actions in Crimea would be immaterial. \n \n Examples of Superforecaster commentary in italics \n \n \n \n AT A GLANCE: \n \n 7 February 2022 - Good Judgment's professional Superforecasters currently\n see an 61% probability that a Russian invasion of Ukraine will not\n take place before 31 May 2022. By \"invasion\" we mean Russia \"sending\n ground national military forces into Ukraine without consent from the\n Ukrainian government in Kyiv.\" Factors driving this consensus forecast\n include: (1) the expected cost for Russia given the likelihood of\n Ukraine's resistance and international sanctions that would follow; (2) a\n strong stand that the US, UK, and parts of the EU took; (3) ongoing\n diplomacy efforts. On the other hand, several Superforecasters point out\n that for Putin to back down without getting any meaningful concessions\n from NATO may mean a loss of credibility. With his increasingly small\n inner circle and with paranoia reportedly running rampant in the Kremlin,\n Putin may have a very different cost calculus. Russia's possible goal of\n creating a land bridge to Crimea is another factor that could increase the\n probability of an invasion. Some Superforecasters also point out that the\n open-source data they rely on may delay their ability to spot the signal;\n classified information would likely give faster indications of any final\n decision to launch an invasion. \n \n \n
This is a preview only. \n \n FutureFirst subscribers enjoy full access to Good Judgment's\n standard reports containing the consensus forecast and\n Superforecasters' rationales since the launch of the question. \n Learn more about FutureFirst\n to follow questions that matter to your organization. \n \n
\n \n
[Start of Preview] \n
\n \n SUPERFORECASTER COMMENTARY HIGHLIGHTS: \n \n 06 Feb 22 - Comment: No signs of Russia backing off or engaging in\n serious diplomatic efforts. \n \n 06 Feb 22 - Comment: I'm deeply skeptical that Russia would risk all\n the sanctions and blowback just over the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. If\n that were the goal of all this, little green men and truckloads of arms\n in humanitarian aid trucks would suffice. On the other hand, better\n securing Crimea and blocking Ukraine/NATO from the Sea of Azov and\n eastern Ukraine, by securing a land bridge to Crimea has the potential\n to shift the cost/benefit calculus in favor of an invasion. \n \n 06 Feb 22 - Comment: History has plenty of lessons of leaders going\n against logic simply because they can. We do not know if Putin and his\n inner circle have already decided they will invade and the only decision\n left is the timing. If that decision has not been made, we also do not\n know what the minimum concessions from NATO, the US, and Ukraine are\n that would be considered acceptable for not going forward with an\n invasion. What we do know is that Russia now has the political and at\n least some financial backing from China. Having put its reputation as a\n \"serious\" world power back in the spotlight and having spent a\n considerable amount of money to position itself to invade Ukraine, it\n will be difficult for Russia to change course without getting something\n very big in return. \n \n 02 Feb 22 - Comment: When the Soviet regime invaded\n Czechoslovakia in August 1968 to crush the Prague Spring, they did so\n with 250k troops. They were expecting to just need to control the\n civilian population, not expecting any resistance from the Czechoslovak\n army, which was communist-controlled. They then needed an additional\n 250k troops for the occupation. Thus, somewhere approaching 500k troops\n just to subdue the civilian population of a country of about 15mn\n people. Ukraine is 44mn people, with a military of over 255k, and in\n this case the military will (probably) fight hard and oppose an\n invasion. Even a smaller invasion would be costly, not just in men, but,\n with the entire world focused on this issue, in PR and in the cost of\n sanctions. If they are just going to invade Donetsk, this is not the\n time to do it. \n \n 02 Feb 22 - White House says\n it's no longer calling potential Russian invasion of Ukraine 'imminent'.\n Comment: Full exchange suggests modified assessment of language but\n not necessarily modified assessment of facts on the ground. \n \n 31 Jan 22 - Comment: Both sides are playing for time right now. If I\n had to bet on what Putin would do long-term (2022-2036), assuming he\n remains in power, I would be surprised if there weren't a full-scale\n invasion of Ukraine during that time. \n \n 30 Jan 22 - Comment: I can understand Zelensky's desire to keep the\n economy going and Russia's subversion in check (which has been an\n ongoing issue since 2014) to limit Russia undermining Ukraine further.\n Potential escalation in Donbas is a way Putin might walk down the\n escalation ladder and still declare victory (say, by recognizing and/or\n starting the process of integrating those regions into Russia). I still\n don't think that is a preferable option for Putin. He could have done\n that any time in the last 8 years. Donbas by itself means nothing to him\n and he would much prefer to stick it back to Ukraine as his vehicle for\n permanent veto over the future direction of the country. But given the\n situation, it could still be sold at home as some sort of victory and\n keep the option of re-escalating later on. \n \n 30 Jan 22 - Comment: Destabilizing Ukraine would be more\n cost-effective for Russia than invading. \n \n 28 Jan 22 - Comment: I still expect some form of military action\n (standoff strikes against Ukrainian military targets, etc.). I cannot\n see how Putin will walk down from the escalation ladder without some\n significant concessions based on his demands, and those key ones are not\n forthcoming. It is also possible that Putin might have a different cost\n calculus and may be more optimistic about his success than Ukrainians\n and/or others. A lot of wars did start after all because one side was\n more optimistic about its chances than they actually are. Putin's\n personality, his increasingly smaller inner circle, etc., could also\n contribute to a lop-sided analysis on his side. The path I can see is\n that Putin would have to demonstrate he is willing to use force and bear\n costs. He might very well think that a short but intense attack, mainly\n done via long-range strikes and airstrikes against Ukrainian military\n assets, backed by a credible threat of ground invasion in case Ukraine\n or NATO responds, will be enough to scare the EU and perhaps the US and\n make them coerce Ukraine to give in to Russian demands or at least some\n significant portion of them. \n \n 28 Jan 22 - Comment: I recognize that we are likely deep inside the \"BIN\n zone\" where information asymmetry can play a significant role in\n forecast error. That is, if Putin decides to invade, spy satellites and\n signals intercepts and other indicators will light up on classified\n networks long before we see open-source reverberations. Forecasting\n errors we might be making now could be in large part because we're not\n seeing key subsets of available data. All I can do is assess from data\n that is publicly available. And from that, I note language from Moscow\n that seems to emphasize areas of potential agreement with the US and\n NATO letters. Is this a feint? Is this a signal? Not sure. \n \n 26 Jan 22 - Comment: I am of the belief that Russia will not\n invade without provocation but will most definitely invade if Ukraine\n attacks Donbas or attacks Russians directly. However, unlike in the\n West, there does not appear to be an appetite for war in Ukraine because\n it will spell a guaranteed ruin for the country already on the brink of\n it. \n \n 26 Jan 22 - Comment: Another potential goal: shut the\n Ukrainians out of the Sea of Azov. Russians are considering widening the\n Volga-Don Canal which connects the Caspian to the Azov and the world's\n oceans. A bigger canal would, in the decades to come, open new trade\n opportunities in southern Russia and give the Russians more influence\n over Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan (which are landlocked save for\n the canal), and even Iran. \n \n
[End of Preview] \n \n
\n \n
"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only, Yes, invading Ukrainian territory outside of Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only, Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts as well as other Ukrainian territory, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Russia further invades Ukraine by EOY 2023",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A262",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-01-18T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Ten or more Supreme Court justices by EOY 2024",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A3",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2020-11-05T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.\n[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in the Soviet Union and China. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only use of nuclear weapons in war.\n[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide large-scale military conflict subsequent to World War I and World War II. The term has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both the level of its widespread scope and of its overall destructive impact.\nAs of January 2019, World War III does not appear to have started - but there have been [a number of historical close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed possible catalysts of such a conflict.\nIn 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, \"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones\". It can be inferred here that Einstein assumed that World War III would either exterminate, or else nearly exterminate the human race, presumably due to nuclear warfare.\nWill there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if, at any time between 2019-01-01 and 2050-01-01, both of these conditions are true:\n1-- \nThere is a military conflict involving countries representing in totality at least 30% of world GDP or 50% of world population in any year in which the conflict is ongoing.\n2-- \nAt least 10 million people (civillians or military personnel) have been killed in the conflict.\n[2021-11-24]: Edited to clarify the time constraints.\n(Edit 1/16/19 to remove third \"described as WWIII\" criterion.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.86,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:31:18.698Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 818,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6047/1m-lost-in-prediction-market/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There are many prediction markets now. Some popular ones are Predictit, FTX, Polymarket, and Augur. The latter three are crypto based; FTX being centralized while the other two are decentralized.\nSome crypto projects (unrelated to prediction markets) have been hacked, causing users to lose money. Some other crypto projects have led to exit scams with the same effect.\nWill any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023?\nThis resolves positively if any prediction market causes more than $1 million in losses to users before 2023. This includes if the cause is hacking, an exit scam by the operators, a glitch causing funds to be lost, or an unambiguously incorrect resolution on some questions. For example, if a prediction market would pay out today that Trump won the 2020 election, that would count. Losses from predictions being resolved correctly do not count. Losses from coins losing value in exchange rate do not count unless the prediction platform in question was primarily used with a stablecoin tied to a major fiat currency, and that stablecoin ended up hacked/locked/significantly lower value/etc.\nThe $1 million can be from multiple different events, as long as it's on a single platform or site.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:33:41.461Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 159,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-02T01:20:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T01:20:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Ohio gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7704/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Ohio gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that the candidate is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed representation, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:07:30.485Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 6010
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will semaglutide be a top 300 medicine in America before 2032?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7323/semaglutide-in-top-300-us-meds-before-2032/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On June 4th 2021, the [U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-drug-treatment-chronic-weight-management-first-2014) semaglutide, a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist, for the treatment of obesity. Some sources are [calling it a potential game changer](https://news.yahoo.com/know-semaglutide-diabetes-drug-being-185753456.html) for the treatment of this condition, which currently afflicts nearly three out of seven American adults. The currently approved formulation for weight loss does require administration by subcutaneous injection, although semaglutide [can be taken orally.](https://clinical.diabetesjournals.org/content/38/1/109)\n[The top 300 most prescribed drugs](https://clincalc.com/DrugStats/Top300Drugs.aspx) in the United States account for around 97% of all prescriptions. Will semaglutide be a top 300 medicine in America before 2032?\nResolves positively if semaglutide, or a semaglutide-containing compound formulation approved for weight loss by the FDA, is among the top 300 most prescribed drugs in America for any calendar year up to and including 2031.\nPreferred source: [ClinCalc Drug Stats database](https://clincalc.com/DrugStats/About.aspx). If it becomes unavailable, paywalled, discredited, etc, try to resolve according to another source that ultimately uses the [Medical Expenditure Panel Survey](https://meps.ahrq.gov/mepsweb/) data from US HHS. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.69,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31000000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:09:45.633Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-08T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-05-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:17:06.966Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 996,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be an offensive nuclear detonation on a nation's capital by 2024, if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8127/nuclear-detonation-on-a-capital-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Nuclear conflict could involve detonations on capital cities, whether as part of [counterforce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterforce) targeting (because capitals often contain militarily relevant targets) or as part of [countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting . The likelihood of detonations on capital cities has substantial implications for estimates of just how harmful a nuclear conflict would be, in part because capitals are often especially densely populated, such that detonations on them could lead to large death tolls and substantial amounts of smoke being lofted into the atmosphere (potentially contributing to [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) effects; see also [Rodriguez, 2019](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pMsnCieusmYqGW26W/how-bad-would-nuclear-winter-caused-by-a-us-russia-nuclear#The_amount_of_smoke_generated_by_counterforce_targeting)).\nWill there be an offensive nuclear detonation on a nation's capital by 2024, if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if, by 2024, there is at least one offensive nuclear detonation on or over a point that is within the bounds of any nation's capital city. It resolves negatively if there's at least one offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 but none of the detonations meet that criterion. It resolves ambiguously if there is no offensive nuclear detonation after this question opens and before 2024.\nThe military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). For example, either a strike intended to kill civilians or a strike intended to destroy a military asset that happens to be in a capital city could both count towards this proportion.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being \" on or over a point that is within the bounds of any nation's capital city\".\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:39:29.597Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Was there widespread fraud in the 2020 US election?",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/Was-there-widespread-fraud-in-the-2020-US-election",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "The [2020 US presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) officially concluded with president Joe Biden declared the winner over his opponent, former President Donald Trump. The results have been disputed by many, including Trump, claiming the Biden victory was obtained illegally, by various means of election fraud. Due to the complexity of the US election system and the number of fraud claims raised, the issue is not easily settled, and a probabilistic analysis is needed.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "The election was no different than previous elections, with minor fraud incidents that did not change the outcome.",
- "probability": 0.9070368318793753,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The election outcome was manipulated through the centrally coordinated effort of multiple people.",
- "probability": 0.043376267197504176,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The election outcome was manipulated through a centralized mass computer fraud, involving a significant portion of US electronic voting equipment.",
- "probability": 0.04397225346324482,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The election outcome was manipulated through many local and uncoordinated frauds, whether human or machine-based.",
- "probability": 0.005614647459875899,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:09:13.885Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "The election was no different than previous elections, with minor fraud incidents that did not change the outcome., The election outcome was manipulated through the centrally coordinated effort of multiple people., The election outcome was manipulated through a centralized mass computer fraud, involving a significant portion of US electronic voting equipment., The election outcome was manipulated through many local and uncoordinated frauds, whether human or machine-based."
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump become speaker of the House of Representatives before January 15th 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7322/trump-to-be-souse-speaker-before-1152023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives),\nThe speaker of the United States House of Representatives, commonly known as the speaker of the House, is the presiding officer of the United States House of Representatives. The office was established in 1789 by Article I, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution.\nFrom a recent [Newsweek article](https://www.newsweek.com/trump-suggests-he-may-run-house-2022-become-speaker-very-interesting-1597823),\nFormer President Donald Trump suggested he would consider running for a House seat in 2022 in a bid to become Speaker of the House and launch an impeachment investigation against President Joe Biden.\nTrump commented on the idea during an interview broadcast by far-right radio host Wayne Allyn Root on Friday afternoon. Former Trump adviser Steve Bannon first touted the idea of Trump running for Congress to take over as Speaker of the House back in February. Root raised the idea with Trump directly during his interview.\n\"Why not, instead of waiting for 2024, and I'm hoping you'll run in 2024 but why not run in 2022 for the United States Congress? A House seat in Florida. Win big. Lead us to a dramatic landslide victory. Take the House by 50 seats. And then you become the Speaker of the House, lead the impeachment of Biden and start criminal investigations against Biden. You'll wipe him out for this last two years,\" Root said with excitement.\n\"That's so—that's so interesting,\" Trump responded.\nThe speaker of the House of Representatives is typically elected at the beginning of January following the scheduled House elections every two years.\nWill Donald Trump become Speaker of the House of Representatives before January 15th 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Donald J. Trump is speaker of the House of Representatives of the United States before January 15th 2023. Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:09:40.453Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 208,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-08T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-15T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8142/fy21-ndaa-study-publicly-available-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Section 3171 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021 [states](https://www.nationalacademies.org/ocga/public-laws/william-m-mac-thornberry-national-defense-authorization-act-for-fiscal-year-2021):\n\"The Administrator for Nuclear Security, in consultation with the Secretary of Defense and the Director of National Intelligence, shall seek to enter into an agreement with the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine under which the National Academies conduct a study on the environmental effects of nuclear war. \n[...] Not later than 18 months after the date of the enactment of this Act, the National Academies shall submit to the Administrator, the Secretary, the Director, and the congressional defense committees a report on the study under subsection (a).\n[...] The report under paragraph (1) shall be submitted in unclassified form but may include a classified annex.\"\nThe bill was signed into law on 2021-01-01, meaning that \"18 months after the enactment of this act\" would make this report due by 2022-07-01. \nAs [noted by the Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-04/news-briefs/congress-mandates-studies-nuclear-war):\n\"The new report would be among the most significant of its kind by the National Academies since its 640-page examination The Medical Implications of Nuclear War, published in 1986.\"\nIt seems plausible that such a report could substantially inform our understanding of nuclear risk and substantially influence policymaking in this area, if the report is indeed written and made publicly available.\nWill the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, between this question opening and 2023-01-01, the National Academies publicly releases a report that is framed as fulfilling the mandate from Section 3171 of the FY21 NDAA and is indeed substantially focused on possible environmental effects of nuclear war.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.68,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:40:37.213Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-17T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a variant that overtakes Omicron in the US by May 17th?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-a-variant-that-overtakes-omicron-in-the-us-by-may-17th",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a variant that overtakes the Omicron variant in the US by May 17, 2022. The market will resolve to “Yes” if in the US, a variant has a higher proportion of cases than Omicron on any day after the inception of this market, January 10, 2022, and on or before May 17, 2022. Otherwise, the market will resolver to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source will be the weekly CDC Nowcast reports on variant proportions: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. The source will be checked daily at 8 PM ET to see if any of their reports within the market timeframe has a variant with higher % in the TOTAL column than Omicron. The final check will be on May 17, 2022, at 8 PM ET.\n\nIf the link to the source changes, the new source will be used. If the source is unavailable for any of the checks, https://covariants.org/per-country will be used instead.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.245146045501752534513135236169265",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.754853954498247465486864763830735",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.518Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "20",
- "liquidity": "771.54",
- "tradevolume": "1330.54",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0xBF5CD247750e077C2AB5D60D39B26388257917db"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will \"best practice\" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5316/vit-d-as-covid-best-practice/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill \"best practice\" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, the BMJ's [treatment algorithm](https://bestpractice.bmj.com/topics/en-gb/3000201/treatment-algorithm) for COVID-19 recommends administering Vitamin D to patients with coronavirus.\nThe BMJ's treatment algorithm has different procedures for mild, moderate, severe, and critical. A recommendation to use Vitamin D for any one of these is sufficient for positive resolution.\n\"1st line\", and \"Plus\" count as a recommendation. \"Consider\" does not.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:20:59.771Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 247,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T20:16:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T21:16:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US supreme court change size by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3617/will-the-us-supreme-court-change-size-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The US supreme court currently has a fixed size of 9 members, but it [hasn't always been this way](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States#Size_of_the_court). It takes only an act of congress to change the size of the court. The president Franklin D. Roosevelt famously [failed to increase the size of the court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judicial_Procedures_Reform_Bill_of_1937) despite his party having a supermajority in congress.\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the size of the US Supreme Court has been changed by law by January 1st 2050. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nThis question closes 1 hour before any relevant law or constitutional amendment passes, or before any other legal action happens, that would induce a positive resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:53:08.997Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 286,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T19:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/which-party-will-control-the-us-senate-after-the-2022-election",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "The 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested.\n\nThis market will resolve to the party which is affiliated with more than half of the voting Senate members after the 2022 Senate elections, or if the Vice President has the same party affiliation, half or more of the voting Senate members. A Senator's party affiliation is determined by whichever party’s caucus he or she is a member of; namely at the time of the writing of this question, Bernie Sanders and Angus King are considered to be affiliated with the Democratic Party.\n\nDetermination of which party controls the Senate after the 2022 U.S. Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": "0.2649826940549566383604323405352792",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": "0.7350173059450433616395676594647208",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.518Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "82",
- "liquidity": "2433.63",
- "tradevolume": "2111.45",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0xc589AE556B5c7EAC03795584304B510A4Ac6c5D4"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9566/russian-troops-in-odessa-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Kiev, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-enter-kiev/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9517/russian-troops-enter-mariupol/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9539/russian-troops-enter-kharkiv/)\n[Odessa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odessa) or Odesa, the 3rd largest city in Ukraine, is a strategically-important city on the northwestern coast of the Black Sea, whose port receives [over 70%](https://www.joc.com/port-news/european-ports/ukraine-ports-eye-larger-share-asia-cargo_20190213.html) of Ukraine's containerized cargo and whose naval base houses the bulk of the Ukrainian Navy. \nAccording to [CNN and the Ukranian Defense Ministry](https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/18/europe/ukraine-intelligence-russia-military-build-up-intl/index.html), Russia has at least 127,000 troops massed outside of Ukraine as of January 19, 2022.\nWill Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if Russian troops have entered Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022, according to credible media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). For purposes of this question, \"entering Odessa\" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Odessa for any length of time against the consent of the Ukranian government. A repelled attack on the city still would count, provided it could be ascertained to a high degree of confidence that at least 100 Russian troops were within city limits.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:45:32.656Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 46,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-28T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who receives a majority of the votes of the appointed presidential electors when the Electoral College votes are cast in the 2024 United States presidential election.\nIn the event that no person receives such a majority, all contracts shall resolve to No. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump",
- "probability": 0.29,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joe Biden",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ron DeSantis",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kamala Harris",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Pete Buttigieg",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:01:08.719Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 786107
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Ron DeSantis, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and a NATO country before 2024, without US involvement?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8148/clash-between-russia-and-nato-ex-us-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Another question asks [Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and Russia before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7449/deadly-clash-between-us-and-russia/) This question focuses on the possibility of a deadly clash by 2024 between Russia and at least one NATO country, without the US being involved.\nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and a NATO country before 2024, without US involvement?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable Russia forces and identifiable forces of any NATO country other than the US.\n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2023-12-31 UTC.\n--- \nThe question resolves negatively if the above criteria are not met for a clash between Russia and a NATO country other than the US or if the criteria are met for a clash between Russia and the US by 2024 (even if, before or afterwards, the criteria are met for a conflict between Russia and a NATO country other than the US)\nSee also\n---[Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6981/russian-annexation-of-ukrainian-territory/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:41:03.306Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any flu season before 2032 exceed 14% ED and UC visits being for ILI?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8726/flu-season-in-next-decade-worse-than-2009-10/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the U.S., the number and percentage of medical visits where [influenza-like illness (ILI)](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm) is reported is the main way flu activity is measured. [According](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm) to the U.S. CDC, “ILI is defined as fever (temperature of 100°F [37.8°C] or greater) and a cough and/or a sore throat without a known cause other than influenza.” The percentage of medical visits that are for ILI is an important way to measure the burden of influenza on the healthcare system.\nThe 2020-2021 flu season in the United States is the [mildest](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) since at least 2009-2010, which is [thought](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/05/10/flu-cases-historically-low-during-covid-what-expect-fall/7088318002/) to be the result of widespread physical distancing targeted at COVID-19. This has also been the case in Virginia: the percent ILI for 2020-2021 is also the lowest since at least 2009-2010 — see the “ILI” tab [here](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/epidemiology/influenza-flu-in-virginia/influenza-surveillance/). The peak percent ILI in Virginia during 2020-2021 was 1.8% in epidemiological week one. The highest peak percent ILI in Virginia since 2009-2010 was 14.1% during epidemiological week forty-two of the 2009-2010 flu season.\nWill any flu season before 2032 exceed 14% ED and UC visits being for ILI?\nThis will resolve positively if the weekly peak percent ILI exceeds 14.0% at any point before 2032 according to the [VDH Influenza Surveillance unit](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/epidemiology/influenza-flu-in-virginia/influenza-surveillance/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:09:51.958Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-08T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-01-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7230/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-ftx/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[FTX](https://ftx.com/) is a cryptocurrency derivatives exchange platform. FTX offers products including derivatives, options, volatility products, and leveraged tokens. Note that the question concerns FTX and not [FTX.US](https://ftx.us/).\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:06:57.053Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-24T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any state leave NATO by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8546/withdrawal-from-nato-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Wikipedia states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO):\n\"[NATO] is an intergovernmental military alliance between 28 European countries and 2 North American countries. [...] NATO constitutes a system of collective security, whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defense in response to an attack by any external party. [...]\nSince its founding, the admission of new member states has increased the alliance from the original 12 countries to 30. The most recent member state to be added to NATO was North Macedonia on 27 March 2020. NATO currently recognizes Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, and Ukraine as aspiring members. [...] Members agreed that their aim is to reach or maintain the target defence spending of at least 2% of their GDP by 2024.\"\nWill any state leave NATO by 2024?\nThe question resolves positively if any state that is a part of NATO at the start of this tournament has left NATO by 2023-12-31. This requires that the state has actually left NATO by that date, rather than merely announcing its intention to leave or beginning the process of leaving. \nThis will be resolved based on an official statement by NATO, for example by the state no longer being included on the member list on NATO's official website.\nIf a current NATO member fragments into two or more successor states and none of those successor states are NATO members, that would resolve this question positively. In contrast, if a current NATO member fragments and at least one successor state remains a NATO member but at least one successor state is not a NATO member, that would not count toward a positive resolution.\nFor simplicity, in the unlikely event that a state leaves NATO by 2024 but then also rejoins by 2024, this question will still resolve positively, since the state had left NATO by 2024. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:59:22.260Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7405/us-fatality-from-nuclear-weapon-detonation/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Nuclear weapons have only been detonated offensively twice. Both detonations were by the US over Japanese cities in 1945. [As of May 2021](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/), the US and two of its strategic rivals are the states with the most nuclear warheads in the world (Russia with 6,257, the US with 5,550, and China with 350). \nWill there be at least one fatality in the US from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2050, if an offensive detonation occurs anywhere?\nThis question resolves positively if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs before 2050 and causes at least one fatality in the US. This question resolves ambiguously if there are no offensive nuclear detonations before 2050. [Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing), [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), and accidental detonations of a state's weapon on its own territory will not count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage. Detonations by either state or non-state actors can count towards question resolution. \nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution. \nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:12:18.833Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 46,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T21:45:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T22:45:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 2024, will Iran possess enough fissile material to make a warhead?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8129/iran-possesses-fissile-material-for-warhead/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nBefore 2024, will Iran possess enough fissile material to make a warhead?\nAs of September 28, 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) estimates](http://%28https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/%29) that North Korea has enough fissile material to make 45 warheads. This question will resolve positively if, anytime before 2024, FAS states that they think it is likely that Iran has enough fissile material to make at least 1 warhead (whether or not that warhead has actually been assembled).\nResolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). If they do not publish relevant estimates in the final quarter of 2023, they will be contacted to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively or negatively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, resolution will come from the Arms Control Association or any other similar platform. \nThis question will resolve no later than Jan 31, 2024 based on best available evidence at the time, or resolve ambiguously.\nSee also\n--- \n[Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/)\n--- \n[How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7463/-countries-increase-nuclear-arsenal-by-10/)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:39:39.918Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-31T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7664/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-in-paris/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The 2024 Olympic games is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).\nThe medal table is calculated by taking all the medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \nThe US team is one of the most successful teams in recent Olympics, topping the medal table in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2024?\nWill USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?\nThis question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2024 Paris Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Paris Olympics do not take place before 2027. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.\nRelated questions\n---[How many medals will Team USA win in Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7665/total-medals-won-by-the-usa-at-paris-2024/) \n---[Will France come in the Top 5 at Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7669/france-home-game-advantage/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:22:51.647Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-17T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-07-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-08-10T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6597/bitcoin-as-payment-method-accepted-by-amazon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Bitcoin has seen a sharp increase in value in recent months and its adoption by Tesla has sparked an interest as it as a universally acceppted form of payment and many people are wondering if it will be accepted by e-commerce giants as a method of payment.\nWill Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?\nA report from a reputable news source that [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (or a local counterparts in any country, such as [Amazon.fr](http://Amazon.fr), [Amazon.nl](http://Amazon.nl), etc.) is accepting Bitcoin as a direct payment method for any product.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:49:21.264Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 225,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-01T18:55:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2671/will-the-united-states-fulfill-its-goal-of-landing-humans-on-the-moon-again-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176)\n[Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxvFsqevSdw) Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as ['just not good enough,'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming ['we're better than that.'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792)\nWill a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025?\nIn order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing must occur before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025, and at least one crew member must be a human alive at the time of landing. A successful return to Earth or any other conclusion of the mission is not necessary for a positive resolution. \nA positive resolution requires that the mission is more than 50% funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities. \nA mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:34:13.317Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1339,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-03-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5212/legacy-automaker-bankruptcy-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As EV technology becomes more widely adopted, and as dates are set for [the prohibition of sales of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles](https://www.thedrive.com/news/36687/california-bans-the-sale-of-new-gas-and-diesel-cars-by-2035#:~:text=Gavin%20Newsom%20just%20signed%20a,out%20the%20internal%20combustion%20engine.) in some places, the question arises: will legacy automakers be nimble enough to adapt to the market landscape?\nAutomakers can expect to incur R&D costs associated with battery technology, in addition to the necessary overhaul of current factories. For example, [Volkswagen is spending billions](https://www.businessinsider.com/vw-making-huge-bet-on-electric-vehicles-in-next-decade-2019-11?r=US&IR=T#:~:text=By%202023%2C%20Volkswagen%20says%20it,profits%20from%202015%20through%202018.) in their efforts to expand their EV offerings, and [Mercedes is also mapping out a future centrally focused on EV's](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-06/mercedes-maps-out-push-to-lift-profits-during-electric-car-shift).\nFor some additional context, here is the IEA [Historical EV Market Share and Outlook](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020). \nThis question asks: Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?\nIf one of the top 10 current automakers (by vehicle sales), including Volkswagen, Toyota, Daimler/Mercedes, Ford, General Motors, Hyundai, Honda, SAIC, BMW, and Nissan, declares bankruptcy, the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nIf the automaker declares bankruptcy the question will resolve positively even if they are bought out by another company or given a loan by the government \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:19:03.076Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 144,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-23T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T07:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be elected president of Brazil in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7358/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-Brazil-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 presidential election in Brazil.\nIf no presidential election is held in 2022, all contracts shall resolve as No. For purposes of resolving this market, a presidential election held in 2022 shall include the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner, even if such runoff occurs after 2022.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Luiz Lula da Silva",
- "probability": 0.6542056074766355,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jair Bolsonaro",
- "probability": 0.24299065420560748,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sergio Moro",
- "probability": 0.02803738317757009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Flávio Dino",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ciro Gomes",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Guilherme Boulos",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marina Silva",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "João Doria",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "João Amoêdo",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Fernando Haddad",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Eduardo Leite",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:59:46.217Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 76470
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Luiz Lula da Silva, Jair Bolsonaro, Sergio Moro, Flávio Dino, Ciro Gomes, Guilherme Boulos, Marina Silva, João Doria, João Amoêdo, Fernando Haddad, Eduardo Leite"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6023/charity-in-china-to-ace-aces-criteria/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in \"[Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)\", the evaluation criteria are described in \"[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)\". \nAs of November 2020, the [Good Food Fund](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-review/good-food-fund/), which primarily operates in China, has been rated as a Standout Charity by ACE, i.e., the level below \"Top Charity\".\nWill a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?\nBy \"primarily operating in China\" we mean that at least half of their efforts or finances are spent on their work in China. For example, [ProVeg International](https://proveg.com/) works in China but doesn't meet this criterion. However, a recommendation by ACE to ProVeg restricted to their work in China would qualify. This criterion is subject to reasonable interpretation; in ambiguous cases, the view of ACE will decide resolution. \nThe question resolves positively if a charity primarily operating in China features as a top charity in [ACE's recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/)\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:33:14.676Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 172,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7816/prototype-of-tesla-bot-by-the-end-of-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On August 19 2021, at Tesla's [AI Day](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0z4FweCy4M&t=359s) event, [Tesla](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) CEO [Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) revealed a design concept of Tesla Bot, a humanoid robot.\nDuring the event, Musk said, \"We think that we will probably have a prototype sometime next year\".\nAccording to [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2021/8/19/22633514/tesla-robot-prototype-elon-musk-humanoid-ai-day?utm_campaign=theverge&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter),\nTesla CEO Elon Musk says his company is working on a humanoid robot and that it will build a prototype “sometime next year.” The humanoid robot will leverage Tesla’s experience with automated machines in its factories, as well as some of the hardware and software that powers the company’s Autopilot driver assistance software.\nMusk, who has spoken publicly about his fears of runaway artificial intelligence, said Tesla is “intended to be friendly,” but that Tesla is designing the robot at a “mechanical level” so that “you can run away from it, and most likely overpower it.” It will be five feet, eight inches tall, and have a screen for a face.\nThe robots will be designed to handle “tasks that are unsafe, repetitive or boring,” the company’s website reads. “I think essentially in the future, physical work will be a choice, if you if you want to do it you can,” Musk said.\nPredict the date of general availability in this [related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7791/tesla-bot-us-general-availability-date/).\nWill Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot by the end of 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if both of these criteria are fulfilled:\n1-- \nBefore 2023, a prototype of a humanoid robot developed by Tesla is revealed in at least one of the following:\n* A social media post by an account officially held by Tesla, Inc.\n* The official website of Tesla, Inc.\n* A live event organized by Tesla, Inc.\n* Some other event organized by Tesla, Inc where members of the public or press are invited.\n* A social media post by an account held by current Tesla CEO Elon Musk.\n2-- \nThe revealed prototype shall be able to move, and this ability must be shown during the event or in the revealed material. \nFor the purpose of this question \"a prototype of a humanoid robot\" is defined as a machine that contains at least the legs of a humanoid and/or the arms of a humanoid. The resolution criteria are indifferent toward the power source, computer and autonomy level (e.g it does not have to run on battery power, the computer may be \"outside\" the robot and a human may (electronically) control the movement of the robot).\nA written or photo update on Tesla Bot in the absence of an event, will not count toward a positive resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:27:39.818Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-09-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "See also:\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[Nuclear GC to cause (near) extinction](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n--- \n[Would we recover if population falls <400m?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8105/would-we-recover-if-population-falls-400m/)\n--- \n[Will humans go extinct by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/)\n--- \n[Extinction if population falls <400 million?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8103/extinction-if-population-falls-400-million/)\nFor simplicity, we will consider two detonations to be part of the same nuclear conflict if they occur within 30 days of each other (regardless of who detonates the weapons, who their targets are, what their motivations are, etc.).\nFor the purposes of this question, \"humans\" are members of a species most of whose members could at some point in their lives reproduce with typical 2021 humans without medical assistance (even if young or old members of the species could not do so or a minority of members of the species could never do so). In scenarios where this question would resolve positively given that definition, but there remain >400 million beings that at least one 2021 Metaculus moderator would consider \"human\" (possible examples: some human-like digital minds; some possible types of genetically altered humans), this question will instead resolve ambiguously. This is because it is debatable whether such scenarios should count as population collapses.\nIf there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?\nThis question resolves positively, 50 years after the final detonation as part of the first nuclear conflict (between now and 2100-01-01) which involves >1000 offensive nuclear detonations, humanity's population is below 400 million. This would include, but is not limited to, scenarios in which humanity is extinct. The resolution of this question is not affected by whether, 50 years after the final detonation, the population is stable, rising, or falling; it is only affected by whether it is below 400 million.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations by 2100-01-01.\nNo attempt will be made to distinguish the effects of the nuclear conflict from the effects of other events. That is, even if it's mere coincidence that the population declines and/or that it remains low following the nuclear conflict, the question can still resolve positively.\nWe request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus scores may be unlikely to be tracked or cared about if this question resolves positively, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:53:17.731Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2061-04-14T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will early elections in the U.K. be called by July 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7640/Will-early-elections-in-the-UK-be-called-by-July-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes if, subsequent to the launch of this market on December 13, 2021 and by the End Date listed below, the Parliament of the United Kingdom is dissolved and an early parliamentary general election is triggered. Such election need not be scheduled to take place, nor actually take place, by the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/01/2022 7:00 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:04:59.766Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 18495
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Lisa Murkowski be re-elected in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7274/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-re-elected-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve as Yes if Sen. Lisa Murkowski is the winner of the 2022 general election for United States Senator from Alaska. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.21999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:59:05.632Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 129061
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7053/brazil-to-lead-in-soybean-production-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Used for thousands of years as an alternative protein source, soy is one of the [most common plant based protein sources](https://www.forbes.com/sites/leahrosenbaum/2019/09/20/big-meat-and-the-switch-to-soy/?sh=28785b437417) used in alternative dairy and meat products today. Used in popular foods like tofu, soy milk, and plant based meat like the Impossible burger, it is praised for its ability to take on a variety of textures and flavors.\nAccording to a [research paper](https://www.aafp.org/afp/2009/0101/p43.html) by the American Family Physician Journal:\n”Soybeans contain all of the essential amino acids necessary for human nutrition and have been grown and harvested for thousands of years. Populations with diets high in soy protein and low in animal protein have lower risks of prostate and breast cancers than other populations. Increasing dietary whole soy protein lowers levels of total cholesterol, low-density lipoproteins, and triglycerides; may improve menopausal hot flashes; and may help maintain bone density and decrease fractures in postmenopausal women. Overall, soy is well tolerated, and because it is a complete source of protein shown to lower cholesterol, it is recommended as a dietary substitution for higher-fat animal products.”\nThe [current top producer for soy](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC), in terms of production quantity, is Brazil, who produced over 114 million tonnes of soybeans in 2019, according the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The next largest producer was the US at 96M followed by Argentina at 55M.\nWill Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if [FAOSTAT data](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC) indicates that Brazil produces the largest quantity of soybeans worldwide, by weight, in the year 2022.\nIf the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations ceases the report the relevant data, other credible global agriculture data sources may be considered.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:01:39.450Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 101,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-22T22:56:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-02-01T23:56:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/) and [Givewell](https://www.givewell.org/).\nSince then, [around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/#our-members-have-done-some-amazing-things) to the world’s most effective charities, [thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world]( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HyELsX9n85D7M1GKxZ1BndxU9nVFLEPH0eh61g2PI4U/edit#gid=0). Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively[ donate around $5-10M each year]( http://effective-altruism.com/ea/1e1/ea_survey_2017_series_community_demographics/), has resulted in [$170 million+](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/impact/) moved to effective charities, and has been partially responsible the focus areas and priorities of the Open Philanthropy Project, [which has made around $600M of charitable grants]( https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants).\nEffective Altruism uses evidence and reasoning to have a substantial and lasting beneficial impact on the World, but will this impact be picked up by Google Trends in a decade's time?\nWill the total interest in [Effective Altruism on Google Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Effective%20Altruism) in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?\nTotal interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Effective Altruism'. \nEdit (29/11/18): this resolves ambigous if Google Trends ceases to exist, or makes substantial enough changes to their methodology for admins to think an ambiguous resolution is required.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:27:00.245Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 142,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-26T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8475/hanson-vs-barnett-bet-on-ems-first/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On Twitter Robin Hanson [proposed](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1444765968987824140),\nOK, so to summarize a proposal: I'd bet my $1K to your $9K (both increased by S&P500 scale factor) that when US labor participation rate < 10%, em-like automation will contribute more to GDP than AGI-like. And we commit our descendants to the bet.\nMatthew Barnett [replied](https://twitter.com/MatthewJBar/status/1444767518070132737),\nI agree to this bet.\nWill Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that Matthew Barnett (or his descendants) publicly concedes the bet to Robin Hanson, and resolves negatively in the event that Robin Hanson (or his descendants) publicly concedes to Matthew Barnett. In the event that one party declares victory but the other party does not concede, Metaculus admins will use their discretion in resolving the bet.\nRelated question: [When will the US labor force participation rate fall below 10%?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8480/us-labor-force-participation-rate-below-10/)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:55:32.549Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 68,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-04T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2061-10-03T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2121-10-03T04:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7738/twitter-says-nyt-tweet-misinforms-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On July 30, [Nate Silver](https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1421230734686228489) of [FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/) retweeted [Ben Wakana](https://twitter.com/benwakana46/status/1421182153224818694) of the White House COVID response team. Wakana was critical of a [tweet by the New York Times](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1420972977005412354) that implied that vaccinated people were just as likely to spread the delta variant of COVID-19 as unvaccinated people. Nate Silver suggested that twitter should flag the New York Times tweet for being misinformation.\nWill Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?\nThis question resolves positive if Twitter flags a tweet by @nytimes as misinformation by 2025. [\"Flagging\"](https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/product/2020/updating-our-approach-to-misleading-information) is defined as putting a link in a tweet to some information that contradicts the claims made in the tweet. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.34,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6599999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:24:16.151Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-07-12T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Singapore be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9525/singapore-first-10-on-embryo-selection-for-iq/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) \n[Lee Kuan Yew](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Kuan_Yew), the founder of Singapore, was a [big](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2009/01/behavioral_genetics_in_singapore.html) [believer](https://lkyonrace.wordpress.com/) in the [heritability of intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability_of_IQ) In his 1983 National Day Rally speech, Lee Kuan Yew [warned](https://twitter.com/BirthGauge/status/1467811127044325377) that the higher fertility among people with a lower education level would lower the population's intelligence. In 2021, Singapore's Ministry of Health [approved](https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/moh-approves-genetic-testing-for-ivf-embryos-as-a-mainstream-clinical-service) more services for genetic testing. The Ministry of Health must authorize the practice, and has only authorized it in the case where there is a risk of a genetic disorder. In a [2020 Pew survey](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/), Singaporeans were more open to \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence than most of the other populations surveyed. Singapore was [the first country in the world to approve cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/) and it has a [developed technology sector.](https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/11/a-close-look-at-singapores-thriving-startup-ecosystem/)\nWill Singapore be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively if Singapore is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\nMoreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:44:14.733Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the price of Bitcoin fall below $10 (2021 USD) before 2121?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7207/bitcoin-falls-below-10-before-2121/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In a column for the New York times in 2018, Paul Krugman [wrote](https://archive.is/sU6eS#selection-443.0-458.0),\nTo some extent gold is in a similar situation. Most gold just sits there, possessing value because people believe it possesses value. But gold does have real-world uses, both for jewelry and for things like filling teeth, that provide a weak but real tether to the real economy.\nCryptocurrencies, by contrast, have no backstop, no tether to reality. Their value depends entirely on self-fulfilling expectations – which means that total collapse is a real possibility. If speculators were to have a collective moment of doubt, suddenly fearing that Bitcoins were worthless, well, Bitcoins would become worthless.\nI think it’s more likely than not, partly because of the gap between the messianic rhetoric of crypto and the much more mundane real possibilities. That is, there might be a potential equilibrium in which Bitcoin (although probably not other cryptocurrencies) remain in use mainly for black market transactions and tax evasion, but that equilibrium, if it exists, would be hard to get to from here: once the dream of a blockchained future dies, the disappointment will probably collapse the whole thing.\nWill the price of Bitcoin fall below $10 (2021 USD) before 2121?\nThis question resolves positively if before 2121 and after 2020, the price of bitcoin at one point fell below $10 per bitcoin (in 2021 dollars). If dollars cease to exist, $10 in 2021 dollars is taken to be an amount of currency with the same purchasing power as $10 of 2021 dollars. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:06:09.491Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 141,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-12-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2121-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will George R. R. Martin die before the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1681/will-george-r-r-martin-die-before-the-final-book-of-a-song-of-ice-and-fire-is-published/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[warning: links may contain spoilers]\n[George R. R. Martin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_R._R._Martin) (GRRM) is the author of the A Song Of Ice And Fire (ASOIAF) books, a series of fantasy novels. Both the book series and the derived TV show [are](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire#Sales) extraordinarily [popular](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_of_Thrones#Viewer_numbers).\nMany of [GRRM's fans have commented](https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/80kaf8/spoilers_extended_is_grrm_stuck_or_is_he_just_slow/) (with [varying degrees of frustration](https://www.thenationalbookreview.com/features/2016/1/15/rant-why-have-george-r-r-martins-writing-his-game-of-thrones-books-so-slowly-and-why-are-they-so-long)) that the latest ASOIAF books are [taking him a long time to write](https://www.thisisinsider.com/why-winds-of-winter-is-taking-so-long-2017-1).\nFor instance: the most recent book had to be split into two because it was getting so long and late; the publication date of the next instalment, Winds of Winter, [keeps getting pushed back](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Winds_of_Winter#Publication_date) (it was at one point announced to be in 2016); and the narrative of the TV show is now much further along the books', [finishing entirely this coming year](https://www.hbo.com/game-of-thrones/season-8-returning-2019).\nAlso: GRRM is now 70 years old, and not getting any younger. People have openly speculated that he might die before he finishes ASOIAF. When confronted with these speculations, GRRM [does not respond well](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/game-of-thrones-author-george-rr-martin-says-f-you-to-fans-who-fear-he-will-die-before-finishing-9596265.html).\nThis question asks the following:\nWill George R. R. Martin die before the official publication date of the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire?\nDetails: \n--- \nI have not specified the name of the 'final book' as [\"A Dream of Spring\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire#A_Dream_of_Spring) in case that is not actually the last title in the series. He might change the name, or decide that more than eight books are needed; he's split planned instalments before, and the previous link includes a quote where he suggests he could do so again.\n--- \nFor a book to fulfil resolution criteria, GRRM or his representatives must announce the book as being the full resolution of the series prior to its publication. It should not be described as the [posthumous] publication of an edited incomplete draft or similar (which would make it analogous to [The Salmon of Doubt](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Salmon_of_Doubt) or [Unfinished Tales](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unfinished_Tales)).\n------The Metaculus community consensus should agree that the book is an 'acceptable attempted resolution' to the ASOIAF story arc, and the print version should ideally include indications that the book is the end of the story (e.g. \"The End\" printed on the final pages). (The intention of this criterion is to avoid a situation where GRRM or his publishers say that they're releasing the final book but the story isn't actually 'done', to the extent that there are so many unresolved plot points and 'missing' foreshadowed events that it's clear that the narrative has been significantly cut short from what was originally planned by GRRM. Of course, it's almost inevitable that there will be one or two loose ends at the end, but that's not what I'm describing. I hope the Metaculus community will be sensible enough to draw the desired distinction.) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:30:15.213Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 454,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-03-01T13:01:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7434/psiquantum-computer-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In early 2021, the firm [PsiQuantum](https://psiquantum.com/) announced that they plan on having a commercial quantum computer by 2025. The PsiQuantum computer, named \"the Q-1\", uses a 'photon qubit' approach as opposed to a 'matter qubit'. According to [PsiQuantum](https://psiquantum.com/),\nThere are many ways to make small numbers of qubits, but only one way to scale beyond 1,000,000 qubits and deliver an error corrected, fault tolerant general purpose quantum computer – and that is photonics.\nToday, after numerous breakthroughs and advances in quantum architecture and silicon photonics, we uniquely have a clear path to building a useful quantum computer.\nIn 2020, PsiQuantum completed Series C funding of $150M bringing their total funding to $215M. Their list of investors includes BlackRock, Microsoft's Venture Fund, and Founders Fund.\nWill PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025?\nThis question will resolve positively via PsiQuantum company report that they have a quantum computer for sale by 2025.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:14:23.234Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T22:35:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:35:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "DeSantis is 2024 POTUS",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A248",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-10-17T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Manchin leave Senate Democratic leadership by July 5th?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/MANCHIN-001",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If the website of Senator Joe Manchin contains a notice by 10:00 AM on July 05, 2022 that Senator Joe Manchin has left or will leave the Senate leadership of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that he has left or will leave the Democratic Party or its caucus is also sufficient to resolve the market to Yes. Announcements that he will leave conditional on political outcomes (such as provisions being included or excluded from an upcoming bill) are not by themselves sufficient to resolve the market to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see MANCHIN in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nIf the event occurs prior to the Expiration Date, then the market will close and expire early. It will close and expire at the expiration time one day following the occurrence of the event.. The resolution source is: Notices on the website of U.S. Senator Joe Manchin. (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4,
- "yes_bid": 7,
- "yes_ask": 9,
- "spread": 2,
- "shares_volume": 14832
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 US Senate election in Vermont?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7609/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Vermont",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Vermont U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that such individual is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed affiliation, of that party.\nCandidates who do not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties shall be considered to be \"Independent.\"\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.9504950495049505,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.039603960396039604,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Independent",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:04:04.360Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 14422
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican, Independent"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Ron DeSantis win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-ron-desantis-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ronald Dion de Santis wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.2980366149273734087939399766396035",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.7019633850726265912060600233603965",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.517Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "44",
- "liquidity": "2902.41",
- "tradevolume": "1028.81",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x84834141F76bDb7EE72A9E67Ca7Bd1e849288C3A"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Florida Democratic gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7685/Who-will-win-the-2022-Florida-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of Florida.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Charlie Crist",
- "probability": 0.7570093457943925,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nikki Fried",
- "probability": 0.16822429906542055,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Annette Taddeo",
- "probability": 0.07476635514018691,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:06:35.539Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 10167
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Charlie Crist, Nikki Fried, Annette Taddeo"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Wirecard uncovered a €1.9bn hole in its balance sheet in June 2020. \nThe company had faced accusations for some time that it has been engaged in accounting fraud.\nMore details can be found here:\n---[https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df…](https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df-a075-0709b36868db) \n---[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal) \nMarkus Braun, Oliver Bellenhaus have been arrested by German prosecutors. Alexander von Knoop and Susanne Steidl are under investigation. Jan Marsalek is a fugitive with an active arrest warrant.\nThis question resolves true if any senior Wirecard executives are given a custodial sentence for crimes relating to fraud at Wirecard. This list includes:\n---Markus Braun \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Alexander von Knoop \n---Susanne Steidl \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Oliver Bellenhaus \nThe imprisonment must be as a result of a conviction, pre-trial detainment will count if the court uses it as part of the sentence (eg time-served). Any country's court system is valid, although the conviction needs to related to Wirecard.\nConvictions in absentia will not result in the question resolving positive unless they are eventually caught and serve their punishment\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:10:43.887Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5170/will-nord-stream-2-be-completed/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipline connecting Russia and Germany. Importantly, it will bypass Ukraine, with whom Russia has had troubled relations in the recent past. Germany has been repeatedly pressured to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, both by the US and most recently in light of the attempted assassination of Russian dissident [Alexei Navalny](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/28/europe/navalny-aide-interview-intl/index.html). Nonetheless, Germany has insisted that the project is purely economic and will go [forward](https://tass.com/economy/1194837).\nWill Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?\nThe question resolves positive if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas. It resolves negative if this event does not occur by January 1, 2025. Or if the project is declared abandoned, canceled, destroyed or is unlikely to be completed in the near future for another reason.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:18:15.343Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 331,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020.\nNow, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/),\nThe Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs. \nFor comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit [has 27,648 GPUs](https://devblogs.nvidia.com/summit-gpu-supercomputer-enables-smarter-science/), suggesting that training models with tens of trillions of parameters is already within theoretical reach. \nAlso recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04451) may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently.\nI have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex. \nThis question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.050000000000000044,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:54:33.510Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 507,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-22T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Wyoming At-Large election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7411/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wyoming-At-Large-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 election for U.S. Representative from Wyoming's At-Large Congressional District. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Harriet Hageman",
- "probability": 0.7281553398058253,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Liz Cheney",
- "probability": 0.1650485436893204,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Anthony Bouchard",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chuck Gray",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Denton Knapp",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bryan Miller",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Darin Smith",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bryan Keller",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Robyn Belinskey",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Perry Pendley",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ed Buchanan",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bo Biteman",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Catharine O'Neill",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:00:52.471Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 42255
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Harriet Hageman, Liz Cheney, Anthony Bouchard, Chuck Gray, Denton Knapp, Bryan Miller, Darin Smith, Bryan Keller, Robyn Belinskey, Perry Pendley, Ed Buchanan, Bo Biteman, Catharine O'Neill"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Vietnam ban export of rice by April 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8868/vietnamese-export-ban-on-wheatrisemaize-/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Export bans are used in some cases by exporting countries to lower domestic prices and increase availability during shortages. However, they also add significant price pressure by further restricting supply, and the introduction of export bans can lead to a cascade. Thus we ask:\nWill Vietnam ban export of rice by April 2023?\nThe question resolves positively if Vietnam officials announces an export ban anytime between the question opening and March 31, 2023 for either rice or wheat or maize or for two or all three of them.\nAn export ban is defined as a complete prohibition on exporting at least one type of the three grains listed above.\nThe question resolves positively if such an export ban:\n--- \nComes into force at any time between the opening of this question and March 31, 2023, even if it is later lifted (regardless of the duration of the ban). It must actually come into force. If it is only announced but cancelled before coming into force, the question resolves negatively.\n--- \nThe ban must apply to exports anywhere outside Vietnam, not just a specific region.\n--- \nThe ban can have narrow exceptions, such as allowing exports upon special authorization or in case of a humanitarian crisis. Exceptions will be considered 'narrow' if exports of the affected crops during the ban are less than 5% (in either dollar amount or weight) of what they were in the same period of the preceding year. If the ban is long enough and data are available, this will be checked based on actual export statistics. If this cannot be evaluated based on data, best judgement will be used to estimate whether the exceptions are narrow enough to likely cut exports below 5%.\n--- \nIt is sufficient if the ban restricts e.g. only one specific strain or type of rice.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively even if the legality of such a ban is contested (as long as it was issued by a government body that might plausibly have some authority over export control, such as the President, Prime Minister, the Cabinet as a whole or a relevant Ministry -- no effort will be made to research the Vietnamese legal system in detail) or it is later struck down by a court.\nThis question will resolve on April 1, 2023, based on at least three credible news reports. In case of doubt, limited effort may be made to investigate primary sources (e.g. machine translated versions of government websites).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:16:17.299Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-27T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9121/tether-to-collapse-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_%28cryptocurrency%29) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.\nWill Tether collapse by the end of 2022?\nThe question will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:\n---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuously for more than 7 days on [FTX](https://ftx.com/trade/USDT/USD). \n---Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuously for more than 7 days. \n---Trading any USDT pair on FTX, Binance and Coinbase will be suspended for more than 7 days. \nThe question will also resolve positively in case all the 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days. The period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2022. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2023. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:30:04.984Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 68,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-10-30T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T23:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be more than 215 million fully vaccinated people in the USA on March 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-more-than-215-million-fully-vaccinated-people-in-the-usa-on-march-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on the number of COVID-19 Fully Vaccinated people in The United States of America according to the CDC COVID tracker, on the resolution date, March 1 2022, 10 PM ET.\n\nCOVID Data Tracker counts people as being “Fully Vaccinated” if they received two doses on different days (regardless of time interval) of the two-dose mRNA series or received one dose of a single-dose vaccine.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if more than 215,000,000 people are counted by CDC as Fully Vaccinated on the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at\nhttps://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-total-admin-rate-total, in the box under the tab \"Fully Vaccinated People\" and will be checked on the resolution date, regardless of the time of recent data update. If the website is down at the final check, it will be checked every 6 hours for 3 days. If the website is still not available, the data for March 1 from Our World in Data will be considered for this market: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.8996094155073120913464233571552564",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.1003905844926879086535766428447436",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.518Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "140",
- "liquidity": "12529.38",
- "tradevolume": "19207.43",
- "stars": 4
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0xad07e1CaF3A43BF8b1720d221d5A1a8984dB92e1"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:48:54.732Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 841,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3606/will-a-wealth-tax-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. A [Weath Tax](https://berniesanders.com/issues/tax-extreme-wealth/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of a Wealth Tax. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.\nConditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will a Wealth Tax be passed (in their first term)?\nFor the purposes of this question a policy will be considered a Wealth Tax if it:\n1) Could theoretically be applied to at least one person living in the US at the time of passage.\n2) The amount paid is based on a formula related to a person's net-worth, not their income (with some assets possibly being excluded)\n3) Has a rate of at least 0.13% (the lowest rate in Switzerland).\n4) Includes (at a mininum) privately held companies and stock in public corporations as a basis for the wealth tax.\nIf the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.\nFor example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).\nThis question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:52:52.864Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 203,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-06-03T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Does the extrasolar planet K2-18b host life?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3111/does-the-extrasolar-planet-k2-18b-host-life/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Recently, planetary astronomers and astrobiologists have been discussing the possibility of introducing a gradated \"life detection scale\", running from 0 to 10, with the goal of telegraphing to the public how much confidence scientists have in any particular intimation that exoplanetary life (or a biosignature) has been detected on a given planet. The scale would be similar in spirit to the [Torino Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torino_scale) for asteroid threats or the [San Marino Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Marino_Scale) for determining risks associated with deliberate transmissions to possible extraterrestrial intelligent life.\nThe purpose of this question (and succeeding questions to form a question series) is to explore the feasibility of using Metaculus to determining a probability consensus that can be mapped onto a numerical score.\nSo on to the specific question itself. \nWater vapor has recently [been detected](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-019-0878-9) (with an independent detection described [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.04642)) in the atmosphere of the extrasolar planet [K2-18b](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K2-18b), which has roughly three times Earth’s radius, nine times Earth’s mass, and receives a similar radiative flux from its parent star as Earth receives from the Sun. This has led to speculation about whether K2-18b might host life, particularly in the press, e.g. [here](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-49648746) and [here](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/09/first-water-found-in-habitable-exoplanets-atmosphere-hubble-kepler-k2-18b/). Given the level of popular interest, and given the rather startling range of opinions that were evident after the announcement, it seems useful for both domain experts and experts in prediction (here's looking at you, Metaculus users!) to have a forum for providing feedback on this issue. \nWe thus ask:\nWill a definitive biosignature be detected on K2-18b?\nResolution is by a measurement and an independent confirming measurement published in the peer-reviewed literature. Positive resolutions are provided by (1) O2 detected in the atmosphere with false positives ruled out, or (2) observation of a significant chemical disequilibrium between CH4 and CO2 in an anoxic atmosphere. Ideally, however, we don't want to limit the question to just these conditions, and moreover, knowledge in the field is advancing quickly. Discussion leading to an improved set of resolution criteria is thus requested. We will consider a time horizon covering the next decade (ending January 1, 2030). There appears to be limited benefit to waiting longer, since K2-18b is close to its star, so it is unlikely to be resolvable by future direct imaging instruments.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:40:43.076Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 97,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-11-30T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Trump’s Truth Social launch on the iOS app store by March 31st?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-trumps-truth-social-launch-on-the-ios-app-store-by-march-31st",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if the Truth Social iOS app, affiliated with Donald Trump, will be live and available for installation on the US iOS app store by March 31st, 2022. \n\nIf Americans with iPhones with the latest iOS firmware update can install Truth Social, also defined as the app from this linked App Store page: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/truth-social/id1586018825, on or before March 31st, 2022, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nPre-Order does not satisfy the market conditions. If the app can be installed by March 31, 2022, even if it is unable to be installed afterwards, it will satisfy the conditions to resolve this market to “Yes.”",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.54439073838623840854840803604646",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.45560926161376159145159196395354",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.518Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "127",
- "liquidity": "5468.21",
- "tradevolume": "10024.61",
- "stars": 4
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x9ea99A93C84CC9e0E640D0ff2A4093EaBbD76a01"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/nanotechnology-gc-to-cause-near-extinction/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 1959, Richard Feynman pointed out that nanometre‐scale machines could be built and operated, and that the precision inherent in molecular construction would make it easy to build multiple identical copies. This raised the possibility of manufacturing at ever increasing speeds, in which production systems could rapidly and cheaply increase their productive capacity. This in turn suggested the possibility of destructive runaway self‐replication.\nAs Eric Drexler, a nanotech pioneer, first warned in [Engines of Creation](http://xaonon.dyndns.org/misc/engines_of_creation.pdf) in 1986 (pg. 146), \nIn a mature form, molecular nanotechnology would enable the construction of bacterium-scale self-replicating mechanical robots that can feed on dirt or other organic matter. Such replicators could eat up the biosphere or destroy it by other means such as by poisoning it, burning it, or blocking out sunlight. \nPlants with ‘leaves’ no more efficient than today’s solar cells could out‐compete real plants, crowding the biosphere with an inedible foliage. Tough omnivorous “bacteria” could out‐compete real bacteria: They could spread like blowing pollen, replicate swiftly, and reduce the biosphere to dust in a matter of days. A person of malicious intent in possession of this technology might cause a catastrophe on Earth by releasing such nanobots into the environment.\nSuch self-replicating systems, if not countered, could make the earth largely uninhabitable. Other potential risks include [ecological and health disasters resulting from nano-pollutants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollution_from_nanomaterials), [the use of misuse of nanotechnology weaponry](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/are-nanoweapons-paving-the-road-to-human-extinction_us_59332a52e4b00573ab57a3fe), and, given the general-purpose character of nanotech, possibly much more.\nA [recent paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3170350) evaluates the opportunities and risks of atomically precise manufacturing argues that the risks might be greatest from military affairs, and specifically rogue actor violence:\nA more significant concern for military APM comes from the potential dangers of rogue actors, including rogue states such as DPRK as well as terrorist groups and other nonstate actors. Over the last two decades, rogue actors have been an increasingly prominent concern for the international community. Looking ahead, some worry that advances in certain technologies, especially biotechnology, could enable rogue actors to cause outsized harm, potentially even a major global catastrophe (e.g., Rees, 2003). APM could also enable a wider range of rogue actors to create powerful arsenals. APM could further make these arsenals smaller and thus easier to conceal. In this regard, APM could be considered similar to biotechnology. This makes for a major risk: a world in which small rogue groups can cause global harm is a fragile world to live in.\nAlthough only small portion of scientists might currently be working to develop self-replicating nanotech, [a recent study done for NASA's Institute for Advanced Concepts](https://foresight.org/study_finds_self-replicating_nanomachines_feasible/) by General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems suggests that a useful self-replicating machine could be less complex than a [Pentium 4 chip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentium_4), and uncovered no road blocks to extending macroscale systems to microscale and then to nanoscale self-replicating systems. Drexler [points out that much of recent surprising progress](https://www.theguardian.com/science/small-world/2013/oct/21/big-nanotech-atomically-precise-manufacturing-apm) comes from disparate fields, and isn't labelled generally \"nanotechnology\".\nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/) Now it is asked,\nGiven that nanotechnology catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves ambiguous if a global nanotechnology catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. It resolves positively if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. \nThe question resolves negative if a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) the post-catastrophe population remains above 5% of the pre-catastrophe population over the subsequent 25 years.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:26:16.249Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-21T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-12-31T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2124-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8981/chinese-gdp-growth-from-q2-q4-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Chinese Economy](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CHNGDPNQDSMEI) has grown remarkably fast in recent decades, with 10-20% annual growth in GDP. Q1 of 2020 marked the one exception where GDP declined by 6% compared to Q1 2019, due to China's heavy lockdowns during the early [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic).\nWill China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if China's GDP in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2022 are greater than the previous quarter, according to the [OECD](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CHNGDPNQDSMEI).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:22:29.743Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 110,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-27T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-04-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-01T16:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Electoral Count Act be amended by July 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7705/Will-the-Electoral-Count-Act-be-amended-by-July-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on January 19, 2022 and by the End Date listed below, federal legislation is enacted that amends the Electoral Count Act. For purposes of this market, any amendment to 3 U.S. Code §§ 1-18 shall be sufficient to resolve this market to Yes. \nEnactment refers to presidential signature of passed legislation, congressional override of a presidential veto, or other means by which qualifying legislation becomes public law. The timing with which relevant amendments go into effect shall not be considered relevant for resolution of this market. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.45999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:07:34.166Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 19091
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8998/1-us-state-legalizes-a-psychedelic-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Oregon become the [first state to decriminalize psilocybin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psilocybin_decriminalization_in_the_United_States) in November 2020 via a ballot measure. Psilocybin (also known as \"mushrooms\") is also decriminalized in a few cities in the US, but remains a [Schedule I drug federally](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act#Schedule_I_controlled_substances).\nA bill to legalize psilocybin, LSD, and other psychedelics has been [reviewed by the California Senate in August 2021](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202120220SB519). Oregon has decriminalized posession of [small doses of LSD](https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/oregon-drug-decriminalization-1121763/).\n[MDMA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MDMA#Legal_status), [mescaline](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mescaline#United_States), and [DMT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N,N-Dimethyltryptamine#By_country_and_continent) are Schedule I drugs and are illegal for all purposes federally.\nScott Wiener, California state representative who authored SB-519 to decriminalize psychedelics, [said in February 2021](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/new-california-bill-would-decriminalize-psychedelics-expunge-criminal-records-n1258261), \"The war on drugs has been a complete failure, It hasn't stopped people from using drugs and it hasn’t stopped addiction.\" Other proponents of decriminalization argue psychedelics have [legitimate uses for medical or psychotheraputic purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychedelic_therapy).\nWill any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if any state decriminalizes or legalizes any of the following:\n---psilocybin \n---LSD \n---MDMA \n---mescaline \n---DMT \nbetween December 21, 2021 to January 1, 2023 (excluding Oregon's current decriminalization of psilocybin and LSD). This question may also resolve positive if any of the above drugs is reclassified as a [Schedule III, IV, V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act#Schedule_III_controlled_substances) or unrestricted substance federally. Decriminalization or Legalization may be restricted to medical or recreational use, and may be restricted to within a maximum amount/dose.\nThe law may decriminalize/legalize some activities, but not others; that is, the question may resolve positively if any of posession, sale, transport, or production/cultivation are decriminalized, while others remain criminal. [\"Deprioritization\"](https://www.marijuanamoment.net/third-massachusetts-city-approves-psychedelics-decriminalization-measure/), where the substance remains criminalized but is deprioritized for enforcement and prosecution, will not qualify to resolve this question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.59,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.41000000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:23:43.054Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 79,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-24T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 4 January 2023, will a United States Supreme Court seat be vacated?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2242-before-4-january-2023-will-a-united-states-supreme-court-seat-be-vacated",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Speculation abounds as to whether Justice Stephen Breyer may retire in 2022 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/09/09/1035092720/progressives-want-justice-stephen-breyer-to-retire-his-response-not-yet), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/19/politics/stephen-breyer-gop-blockade-biden-supreme-court-pick/index.html)). For the purposes of this question, an announced retirement effective upon the confirmation of a successor would count as a seat being vacated, though an announced retirement effective as of a date after 3 January 2023 would not count (e.g., [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/publicinfo/press/oconnor070105.pdf)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, and a replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, but no replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:01:09.762Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 282,
- "numforecasters": 108,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and a replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023, Yes, but no replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's July meeting? ",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/FED-008",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If the target federal funds rate is greater than 0.25% following the Federal Reserve's July 27, 2022 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see FED in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their July 27, 2022 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting. . The resolution source is: The upper bound of the target federal funds range published on the Federal Reserve official website. (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.06000000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "yes_bid": 94,
- "yes_ask": 95,
- "spread": 1,
- "shares_volume": 5512
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia)\nThe S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends?\nThis question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:06:19.680Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 280,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-17T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in the US, UK, or France by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8366/usa-uk-or-france-nuclear-attack-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in the US, UK, or France from an offensive nuclear detonation before 2030. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised](https://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) detonations of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nSee also similar questions regarding the chance of a fatality:\n--- \n[India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8367/fatality-in-india-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Pakistan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8368/fatality-in-pakistan-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[North Korea](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8369/fatality-in-n-korea-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Russia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8365/fatality-in-russia-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8364/fatality-in-china-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least one fatality in the US from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2050, if an offensive detonation occurs anywhere?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7405/us-fatality-from-nuclear-weapon-detonation/)\nWill there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in the US, UK, or France by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in the US, UK, or France from an offensive nuclear detonation between 2021-01-01 and 2030-01-01. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:51:07.712Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will income taxes rise for the highest tax bracket in 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-income-taxes-rise-for-the-highest-tax-bracket-in-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes”, if a bill that has the effect of raising the top bracket federal personal income tax rate above 37.0% becomes law before December 31 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nPlease note, other provisions that may affect the amount of personal tax paid by a given individual but are not the personal income tax rate are not considered in this market. \n\nNote also, the increases in taxes imposed on specific kinds of personal income that are not taxable income or (adjusted) gross income are not considered in this market.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.3626025510787273861234554454916972",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.6373974489212726138765445545083028",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.518Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "110",
- "liquidity": "1500.00",
- "tradevolume": "4203.25",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0xdfb130ac3b8bD780c3BB212BE68DcF7e6937E5cD"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will zkSync have a token by May 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-zksync-have-a-token-by-may-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if zkSync or Matter Labs will have a live token related to its ecosystem, technology, chain, or parent company, by May 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Having a live token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native or related to the application, protocol, technology, ecosystem, or parent company, and is substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. In the case that the token comes in the form of a DAO or DAO-like organizational structure that has governing or controlling power over the underlying tech or protocol, or is otherwise officially related to the project, instead of a traditional fee paying-related token, that will still qualify as launching a token. If zkSync or Matter Labs have a live token by May 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If the resolution date is reached and the market resolution criteria has not been met, the market will resolve to \"No\".",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.4424924162355231541871265089360735",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.5575075837644768458128734910639265",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.519Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "36",
- "liquidity": "385.65",
- "tradevolume": "1474.54",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0xff6BE55aE19ba515dfF69897ce4624438c100C6a"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6725/large-american-city-to-abolish-police-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_abolition_movement),\nThe police abolition movement is a political movement, largely in the United States, that advocates replacing policing with other systems of public safety. Police abolitionists believe that policing, as a system, is inherently flawed and cannot be reformed—a view that rejects the ideology of police reformists. While reformists seek to address the ways in which policing occurs, abolitionists seek to transform policing altogether through a process of disbanding, disempowering, and disarming the police. Abolitionists argue that the institution of policing is deeply rooted in a history of white supremacy and settler colonialism, and that it is inseparable from a pre-existing racial capitalist order.\nIn the summer of 2020, a movement to dismantle the Minneapolis police department became supported by a majority of the members of the Minneapolis city council, but was [later abandoned](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/26/us/politics/minneapolis-defund-police.html).\nSome have questioned the practicality of police abolition, asking whether it would be possible to maintain a society with no police without it devolving into lawlessness and chaos. As one potential response, the capitalist philosopher Michael Huemer has written at length about how a society that abolished government policing could maintain the public order. From his book [The Problem of Political Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Problem_of_Political_Authority),\nAccording to a recent report, there are now 20 million private security guards worldwide – about twice as many as the number of government police. In America, private security guards number about 1 million, compared to 700,000 government police. In some cases, the government itself hires private security guards to protect public spaces, including the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia, the Statue of Liberty in New York, and the main bus terminal in Durham, North Carolina. If this trend continues, we could one day see a situation in which all public spaces are protected by private security guards.\nIn many countries – the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and others – private citizens are legally authorized to make citizens’ arrests. The conditions for a legal citizen’s arrest, however, tend to be much more restricted than the conditions under which government police may make an arrest. Legal authorization for citizens’ arrests may be limited to certain kinds of crimes, and the arresting citizen may be required to personally witness the crime in progress. One could imagine a liberalization of such laws, permitting citizens’ arrests for all crimes, including cases in which the suspect’s guilt is established by investigation after the fact.\nWill a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that an American city whose metropolitan area contains at least 1 million people, abolishes their public police department. In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of ANY and ALL taxpayer funded and government managed police department(s) in that city.\n30 October 2021 clarification: Resolution text changed from\n\"In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of a taxpayer funded and government managed police department in that city.\" \nto\n\"In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of ANY and ALL taxpayer funded and government managed police department(s) in that city.\"\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:53:12.883Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 194,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Bitfinex default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7236/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-bitfinex/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Bitfinex is a cryptocurrency exchange platform. Their customers' money has been stolen or lost in several incidents.\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill Bitfinex default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---If the exchange ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their assets &c. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:07:23.878Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8896/us-rejoins-iran-deal-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7840/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2023/) (closed) \n[The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA) agreed between Iran and the P5+1 nations (China, France, Germany, Russia, United Kingdom and the United States) in 2015 limited the [scope and scale of Iran's nuclear program](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/JCPOA-at-a-glance).The USA unilaterally withdrew from the agreement in May 2018 and began reimposing economic sanctions against the country. Since then Iran has enriched uranium above limits agreed by the JCPOA, according to the [latest assessment from IAEA](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/iran-offers-less-for-more-as-vienna-talks-stall/). [Negotiations resumed](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/iran-nuclear-deal-pulled-back-from-brink-of-collapse-as-talks-resume-in-vienna) in Vienna in December 2021 between Iran and the P5+1 to agree on another deal. \nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before January 1, 2023, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2023, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. the question will resolve on the basis of official statements by the US or Iranian governments, or credible media reports.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:17:14.406Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 211,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7784/egypt-ethiopia-water-war-before-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Ethiopian_Renaissance_Dam) is a mega-dam across the Nile in Ethiopia. It's main purpose is as a hydroelectric dam to supply Ethiopia's energy needs.\nEgypt (downstream of the dam) have long been concerned about control of Nile waters and are concerned that the dam will reduce downstream flow.\nThere have been reports of Egypt planning an attack on the dam:\n--- \n[WikiLeaks published documents suggesting that Egypt were planning on bombing the GERD](http://www.meleszenawi.com/wikileaks-egypt-was-planning-to-bomb-the-ethiopian-grand-renaissance-dam-using-sudan-as-a-launchpad/)\n--- \n[The Egyptian Cabinet discussed attacking Ethiopia over the dam](https://www.businessinsider.com.au/cabinet-advises-morsi-attack-ethiopia-2013-6)\nWill Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?\nA clear attempt by Egyptian forces (or forces linked to Egypt in media reports) to attack the GERD. Specific examples of attempts which would resolve this question positive:\n---A bombing attack on the dam \n---Special Forces or infantry units attempt to damage the dam \nSuccess of such actions is not required for this question to resolve positive, but the public must find out.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:25:50.008Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-28T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-08-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By the year 2100, will any jurisdiction enforce requirements for all births to be genetically engineered?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7250/ban-on-genetically-unmodified-humans/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Our genes are the biologically encoded information from which we are built. Important traits known to be affected by our genes include aspects of [intelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability_of_IQ) and [mental illness](https://www.nimh.nih.gov/about/advisory-boards-and-groups/namhc/reports/genetics-and-mental-disorders-report-of-the-national-institute-of-mental-healths-genetics-workgroup). Many physical traits, such as [height](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-much-of-human-height/), [attractiveness](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6448827/), [strength](https://journals.lww.com/acsm-healthfitness/fulltext/2007/03000/genetic_roles_in_muscle_strength.8.aspx), and even [longevity](https://medlineplus.gov/genetics/understanding/traits/longevity/) likewise strongly depend on the genes we have.\nAs the human genome and related human biological areas of inquiry became better understood, genetic engineering has become known. In the case of traits affected by simple genetic factors, it has been possible for years to change these genes, and the resulting trait(s) expressed, by means such as CRISPR/Cas9.\nThe pace of genetic engineering research, as measured by papers published worldwide, shows a clear trend to be growing. There is every reason to believe that as a result of this research trend, genetic engineering technology will tend to become safer, more powerful, and less expensive with time.\nHuman reproduction as we typically know it results in one's genes constituting a mixture of two previously existing humans' genes which were themselves selected in this manner and so on. Artificial means of reproduction still rely on the bulk DNA transfers from existing humans. Presently, genetic engineering for new humans is [exceptional](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00673-1), as well as taboo. \nThe gaussian distribution of genetic traits means that most humans won't have the most advantageous genes in most areas. Further, rather undesirable traits are ubiquitous: we all age.\nIf genetic engineering reaches the level where it is possible to safely and reliably eliminate the possibility of traits widely considered undesirable, such as predisposition toward schizophrenia, cystic fibrosis, or intellectual disability, there is good reason to think that humans may consider such genetic modification an ethical imperative. This is one scenario.\nHuman intelligence is one of the most complicated constructs of substantial genetic determination. Even so, it is possible that humanity could come by a sufficient understanding of the relationship to set humans-to-be with brains optimized to be as smart as possible. It may not be so easy to reach a consensus recognizing these types of modifications as ethnically necessary.\nOf course, it goes on. Any desirable trait controlled by genetics can in principle be added by genetic engineering, and any undesirable trait removed. Consequently, the space for possible legal mandates in this field is immense. \nOn environment: redwoods have genetics to grow very tall, but if you take one to the desert, it won't work very well (or at all). So while environment interacts with genes, the genes provide the foundation for what the environment has to work with.\nBy the year 2100, will any jurisdiction enforce requirements for all births to be genetically engineered?\nThis question will resolve positively if, between January 1, 2020 to January 1, 2100, any jurisdiction passes any law(s) requiring all births to eliminate or promote certain gene(s) through gene editing techniques. \"Gene editing techniques\" means here [CRISPR/Cas9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing), or any techniques which directly and selectively modify targeted genes. The genetic engineering techniques may occur at any time in the individual's lifespan, including before birth, after birth, or before conception. This question will only include jurisdictions which govern a population of at least 1 million people at the time the law is in effect.\nLaws only requiring genetic testing or sterilizing/forbidding reproduction by individuals or couples carrying certain genes are not included for the purposes of this question. Forms of artificial selection such as [embryo selection](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_vitro_fertilisation#Embryo_selection), or abortion/[extermination](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocide) of non-compliant genomes are not included for the purposes of this question.\nTo resolve this question, the relevant law must be enforced for at least one birth. That is, if a law is passed but struck down by a court before it is applied, or if such a law is passed but never enforced, this will not resolve the question. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:08:15.854Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-24T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T20:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T06:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Afghanistan in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2253-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-afghanistan-in-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "War and drought have left millions in Afghanistan facing potential famine ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/15/famine-new-battleground-for-displaced-afghans-a-photo-essay), [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/famine-looms-afghanistan-leaving-millions-hungry-rcna10400), [IPC](https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/ipc-mapping-tool/)). For general information on how famines are declared, see: http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:00:48.094Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 127,
- "numforecasters": 93,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Volkswagen Group produce fewer than 22 million electric vehicles by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2665/will-volkswagen-group-produce-fewer-than-22-million-electric-vehicles-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In [a recent press release](https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2019/03/VW_Group_JPK_19.html) the Volkswagen Group announced an expansion of their efforts in electric mobility, announcing a shift in their aims from 15 to 22 million vehicles produced in the next decade, CO2 neutrality by 2050, construction of hundreds of charging stations across Europe, and others. \nFor this the Volkswagen Group established a [modular platform](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platform), which should enable them to achieve these numbers. Different brands of the VW group like Porsche, Audi, Škoda, and Seat are already making use of and building models with the MEB, set to be sold come 2020.\nLet’s check one of their (cl)aims with this prediction.\nWill Volkswagen Group have produced fewer than 22 million electric vehicles with their MEB by 2030?\nResolution conditions: \n---Only fully electric vehicles produced based upon the [MEB](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platform) (or a possible successor) will count towards that number \n---\"By 2030\" sets the deadline’s last day on 2029-12-31 \n---If Volkswagen Group’s subsidiaries (Audi, Lamborghini, Ducati, Bentley Motors, Bugatti Automobiles, MAN SE, Porsche, Porsche Holding, Scania, SEAT, Škoda Auto, Volkswagen, Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles, Volkswagen, Marine, TRATON, Here) change significantly (they added or removed subsidiaries had a >100k unit production in the previous year), the question resolves ambiguous. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:33:57.446Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 111,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-03-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-03-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-06-30T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Ethereum Merge (EIP-3675) occur by July 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-ethereum-merge-eip-3675-occur-by-july-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if The Merge will occur on the Ethereum mainnet as described in EIP-3675 (or any successor to EIP-3675) by the resolution time, July 1 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, transitioning the Ethereum blockchain to proof-of-stake.\n\nIf the first proof-of-stake block (defined in EIP-3675 as TRANSITION_BLOCK) is produced before the resolution time, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". \nOtherwise, the market will resolve \"No\".\n\nNote, that forks to the execution layer and the consensus layer implementing EIP-3675 will not have any impact on the market resolution. Only the actual occurrence of The Merge will be considered.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.4457143312713321892704473839256786",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.5542856687286678107295526160743214",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.517Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "82",
- "liquidity": "61246.96",
- "tradevolume": "22287.17",
- "stars": 4
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x5C36232eFF9C2f974d13275bE775b4fEe3E4A962"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 01/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.7450980392156863,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.2549019607843137,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:13.772Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 785775
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a Bored Ape appear during a SuperBowl LVI Commercial or Halftime Show?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-bored-ape-appear-during-a-superbowl-lvi-commercial-or-halftime-show",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether a Bored Ape NFT will appear within any SuperBowl LVI commercial or as an official part of the SuperBowl LVI Halftime Show. If any Bored Ape NFT, or image of a Bored Ape appears during any SuperBowl LVI Commercial or at all as an official part of the SuperBowl LVI Halftime Show, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be https://www.nfl.com/super-bowl/commercials and official footage from the Superbowl LVI Halftime Show, however other credible sources will also suffice.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.3321979148840583718629635352163443",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.6678020851159416281370364647836557",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.518Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "189",
- "liquidity": "10669.89",
- "tradevolume": "19917.66",
- "stars": 4
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0xE3c51C2369097eCA173F90DC695FE81d03180199"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The Republican nominee for President in 2024 is Ron Desantis",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A181",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-06-18T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:55:00.713Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 275020
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/254/pandemic-series-a-significant-bioterror-attack-by-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Bioterrorism is a significant and growing threat: in principle, infection of a single person with the right pathogen could create a devastating wave of sickness and death. \nThus far, the world has been largely spared this horror. The largest attack on US soil to date is apparently a [1984 Oregon attack on salad bars(!)](http://www.slate.com/blogs/atlas_obscura/2014/01/09/the_largest_bioterror_attack_in_us_history_began_at_taco_time_in_the_dalles.html) carried out by a religious group. \nInternationally, the Aum Shirinkyo cult made [multiple attempts](http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/atxchapter3.pdf) at biological attacks, including unsuccessful anthrax attacks. (It was more tragically successful using Sarin gas, which killed 12 in the 1994 subway attacks.)\nThese efforts at bioterrorism were largely failures; however, that does not mean future attacks will not succeed. So here we ask:\nBy 2025 will a bioterror attack occur in which more than 1000 total worldwide cases or 100 worldwide fatalities are reported? \nHere we consider only attacks in which a pathogen infects humans (rather than including toxins even if they are biologically generated such as for botulism), and we consider numbers from the WHO, CDC, or other government source.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:08:44.530Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 153,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2017-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5587/ai-ny-times-best-seller-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model),\nA statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words.\nThe New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list),\nwidely considered the preeminent list of best-selling books in the United States. It has been published weekly in The New York Times Book Review since October 12, 1931. In the 21st century, it has evolved into multiple lists, grouped by genre and format, including fiction and non-fiction, hardcover, paperback and electronic.\nWill a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?\nA book is said to have been written by a language model if a language model wrote at least 99% of the text contained in the main section in the book, excluding a potential foreword, copyright notice, table of contents, and other non-essential book sections. The main text must also contain at least 20,000 words. Stylistic edits by humans are allowed if they do not change the basic semantic meaning of any sentence, or they merely correct basic spelling, grammatical, or formatting mistakes. Admins will use their discretion, in consultation with the community, to determine whether any candidate book meets the spirit of these conditions.\nThis question resolves positively if the above conditions are met before 2030, and negatively otherwise.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:25:34.329Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 216,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the Oscars?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/OSCARS-023",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If || Nominee || has won || Award || at the 94th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see OSCARS in the Rulebook for more details. The 94th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 27, 2022. \n\nThis Contract will close and expire the sooner of one day following the Oscars posting the winners on the website of the Academy and December 31, 2022. . The resolution source is: Award winners at the 94th Academy Awards according to the website of the Oscars. (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.782Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "yes_bid": 5,
- "yes_ask": 6,
- "spread": 1,
- "shares_volume": 2548
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be elected governor of Michigan in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2224-who-will-be-elected-governor-of-michigan-in-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "There are 20 Republican-held and 16 Democratic-held state gubernatorial seats up for election in 2022 ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Gubernatorial_elections,_2022), [270 To Win](https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "The Democratic Party candidate",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The Republican Party candidate",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Someone else",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:01:54.827Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 104,
- "numforecasters": 74,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "The Democratic Party candidate, The Republican Party candidate, Someone else"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 2014, around 250 legally dead people in the United States were in cryonic preservation. At least 1,500 people around the world have active plans to join them in cryopreservation in an attempt to thwart (or at least delay) permanent death by freezing (or more technically 'vitrifying') their corpses after their legal death. Many of these 'cryopatients' have had their whole bodies preserved; others have opted to have only a cheaper neuropreservation. You can probably guess what that means. For more information on the current state of the art in cryonics, you can visit [Alcor's website](https://alcor.org/Library/html/vitrification.html), which is one of the most prominent organisations in the field.\nThis question asks: will any 'patients' who have been in cryonic preservation for at least one full year before 2050 be successfully revived before 1 January 2050? \nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 24 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:28:08.553Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 340,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8588/the-npt-withdrawal-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [United Nations state](https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/):\n\"The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT) is regarded as the cornerstone of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime and an essential foundation for the pursuit of nuclear disarmament. It was designed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, to further the goals of nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament, and to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. A total of 191 States have joined the Treaty, including the five nuclear-weapon states.\"\nA country withdrawing from the NPT could perhaps increase the chance of nuclear proliferation, as well as perhaps serving as a signal of rising geopolitical tensions and nuclear risk.\nIn 2003, North Korea announced its intention to withdraw from the NPT. No other state has withdrawn, though [Iran has recently threatened to do so](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/1/20/iran-to-quit-npt-if-its-nuclear-programme-referred-to-un-zarif).\nBy 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?\nThis question resolves positively if, by 2024, a country that joined the NPT before November 2021 actively withdraws from the treaty. The question will be resolved based on the data of [United Nations, Office for Disarmament Affairs](https://treaties.unoda.org/t/npt). \nIf a country that is party to the NPT ceases to exist or is replaced by one or more successor states (as happened with the Soviet Union and Russia, for example) and this results in the country no longer being part of the NPT, that will not be treated as active withdrawal for the purposes of this question, even if the successor state(s) is also not party to the NPT.\nFor the purposes of this question, North Korea will be treated as having already withdrawn, meaning that further actions by North Korea cannot themselves resolve this question positively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:01:47.962Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any science fiction literature originally written and published in Spanish win a major science fiction award before 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4849/first-award-for-spanish-sci-fi-by-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Spanish Science Fiction has only a token presence internationally. In spite of pioneering works such as El Anacronopete, the first story involving a time machine, and prestigious authors like Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarin or Pedro Salinas writing SF stories, Spain has failed to impress the international readership with a universally embraced SF classic. Most writers and titles seem to be invisible not only to foreign readers and spectators, but also to their local peers, to the extent of being considered a \"phantom genre.\"\nThe Spanish-speaking public, however, enjoys science fiction like the rest of the world. Spanish literature does not lack imagination, and indeed has produced cultural phenomena such as magical realism during the Latin American Boom. Rapid technological development has made science fiction increasingly familiar, not only a resource for entertainment, but also a valuable tool in marketing or future studies. And numerous Spanish authors keep trying.\nWill any science fiction literature originally written and published in Spanish win a major science fiction award before 2031? \nResolution will be positive if a short story, novelette, novella or novel originally written in Spanish and published by the end of 2029, in any medium, is granted one of the following awards: Hugo, Nebula, John W. Campbell, Theodore Sturgeon or Arthur C. Clarke, before the end of the year 2030.\n(Note: except for the Hugo Prize, these prizes currently require a previous translation into English. The answer will be positive if and only if the work was originally written and published in Spanish).\n-------- EN ESPAÑOL:\nEspaña tiene una presencia testimonial en el panorama internacional de la ciencia ficción. A pesar de que haber preconizado ideas como la máquina de tiempo (El Anacronopete) y de que autores de prestigio como Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarín o Pedro Salinas se aproximaran al género, la ciencia ficción española no ha logrado cautivar a los lectores extranjeros con un clásico universalmente aceptado y la mayoría de los escritores y títulos parecen invisibles, no solo fuera de España, sino también entre sus pares de profesión. Hay quien la ha llegado a describir como un «género fantasma».\nEl público español disfruta, sin embargo, con la ciencia ficción como en el resto del mundo, y la literatura en español no solo no carece de imaginación, sino que ha producido fenómenos culturales como el realismo mágico del boom latinoamericano. El rápido desarrollo tecnológico ha convertido a la ciencia ficción en algo cada vez más familiar, no solo un recurso para el entretenimiento, sino una herramienta para el marketing y el debate de ideas. Numerosos autores españoles lo siguen intentando.\n¿Ganará una obra de Ciencia Ficción escrita y publicada originalmente en español hasta el año 2029 incluido alguno de los grandes premios internaciones que acreditan a los grandes autores del género?\nLa respuesta será SI, si un cuento corto, novela corta (en cualquiera de sus extensiones) o novela escrita en castellano y publicada hasta el año 2029, en cualquier medio, recibe uno de los siguientes premios: Hugo, Nébula, John W. Campbell, Theodore Sturgeon o Arthur C. clarke, antes del cierre del año 2030.\n(Nota, en la actualidad excepto el premio Hugo al que podría acceder directamente una obra escrita en español, el resto requieren una traducción previa al inglés. La respuesta será positiva si y solo sí la obra fue escrita y publicada con anterioridad en español).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:11:15.733Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 110,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-03T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3621/will-a-third-party-win-a-senate-election-in-the-united-states-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "So-called \"third parties\" are political parties in the United State that aren't the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. Members of [third parties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_party_%28United_States%29) rarely win elections in America. However, the [last third party member](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsRepresentingThirdorMinorParties.htm) who won a senate election was James L. Buckley in 1970.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"independent\" is not counted as a third party, as it is not a political party, but instead an identification.\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that a member of a third party won a United States senate election by January 1st 2050. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:53:30.252Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 159,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\nMetaculus currently uses the median forecast (which will be the same whether or not we transform forecasts into log-odds or not). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the median.\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 300 questions.\nWill mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions?\nUsing the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the median forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance. \nThe set of questions used will be the next 300 binary questions to resolve, which close after this question opens.\nIf the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:31:40.117Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-09-30T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will most protons that currently make up Earth (and you) eventually decay?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1535/will-most-protons-that-currently-make-up-earth-and-you-eventually-decay/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Warning: This is one of those Metaculus questions with no points actually on the line. It's not going to resolve.\nWhat is the ultimate fate of the \"stuff\" that makes us up? It's mostly protons, which (fortunately) are remarkably durable.\nAfter we as individuals die, the material that comprises our bodies at the time of death will mostly likely get recycled into Earth's biosphere. (This isn't 100% guaranteed--some lucky few of us may get to [die on Mars](https://www.popsci.com/how-youll-die-mars).) And not ALL of the protons in our bodies will remain on Earth. By chance, some will escape into space and roam the void.\nBut what's the long long term fate of the protons of Earth? Perhaps the Earth will be swallowed by the sun in a few billion years. [Or maybe not](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-sun-will-eventually-engulf-earth-maybe/). But on much longer time scales, many interesting things can happen to our protons:\n--- \nWe could end up sucked into the black hole at the center of our galaxy if the Andromeda-Milky Way [galactic merger](http://phenomena.nationalgeographic.com/2014/03/24/scientists-predict-our-galaxys-death/) happens just so. Or another black hole could happen along.\n--- \nA [vacuum state change](https://nerdist.com/vacuum-decay-is-a-very-real-way-all-life-in-the-universe-might-be-destroyed/) or other weird physics could end the universe as we know it.\n--- \nProtons might [not actually decay](https://www.symmetrymagazine.org/article/do-protons-decay), and just hang around forever.\nWhat do you think will happen to our remnants in super-deep time? \nQuestion \"resolves\" positive if most of Earth's protons eventually decay into lighter particles; resolves negative if the majority of Earth's protons have a different fate (are processed into net zero-baryon number black hole emissions, destroyed in a phase transition, sit around forever, recast into other particles by superintelligent beings, disappear when the simulation's plug is pulled, or whatever.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:25:46.568Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-02T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "9999-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "9999-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 1 October 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2160-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-1-october-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ([The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/21273768/section-230-explained-internet-speech-law-definition-guide-free-moderation), [The Conversation](https://theconversation.com/what-is-section-230-an-expert-on-internet-law-and-regulation-explains-the-legislation-that-paved-the-way-for-facebook-google-and-twitter-164993), [Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230)). There are multiple proposals under debate for its modification ([Ars Technica](https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/10/algorithms-shouldnt-be-protected-by-section-230-facebook-whistleblower-tells-senate/), [Brookings Institution](https://www.brookings.edu/techstream/legislative-efforts-and-policy-frameworks-within-the-section-230-debate/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:03:53.722Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 238,
- "numforecasters": 128,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1002/any-progress-in-human-lifespan-enhancement-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There have been great improvements in medical technology in the last few centuries, which has led to very significant increases in [life expectancy]( https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy). Yet, while medical technology has stopped the vast majority of us dying young, it has not been very effective at increasing the maximum age that humans can live to. [Ramesses II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_II) lived to the age of 90, even though the life expectancy in ancient Egypt might have been below 30. Similarly, the English aristocracy between 1500-1550 already had a life expectancy of 71, meaning that quite a few of them will have lived into their 80s. The oldest person the world, as of the writing of this question, is aged 117. It is unclear whether anybody in the ancient world lived to a similar age (there were many claims of extreme age and very poor record keeping), but it certainly does not seem completely impossible.\nRecently, though, there have been attempts to actually extend he upper limit of human lifespan. The [Methuselah Foundation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methuselah_Foundation) has managed to keep mice alive for the equivalent of 180 human years. Yet, it is unclear whether this achievement will be transferrable to humans.\nIt is asked:Will there be any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100? \nThis questions resolves positive if:\nEITHER\n
There have been at least 10 people who have lived to the age of 130 by 2100.
\nOR\n
There have been at least 100 people who have lived to the age of 120 by 2100.
\nOR\n
Ray Kurzweil lives to the age of 120.
\nThe resolution triggering people have to have their age verified by standards at least as strict as the standards used at the time of the writing of this question. People resuscitated after being cryonically frozen do not count.\nHere is some context on verified claims up to the writing of this question:\n
46 people have reached the age of 115.
19 people have reached the age of 116.
9 people have reached the age of 117.
2 people have lived beyond the age of 117.
Only one person is verified to have lived to 120, and they lived to 122.
\nAlso note that the people who could trigger positive resolution here are all already alive and at least middle aged as of the writing of this question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.050000000000000044,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:18:34.514Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 440,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-30T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4952/will-lebanon-come-under-french-rule-again-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "France has previously ruled Lebanon and Syria cf. [the Mandate for Syria and the Lebanon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandate_for_Syria_and_the_Lebanon) in the period 1920-1946. Following recent events, [there is some popular desire to return to French rule](https://beforeitsnews.com/global-unrest/2020/08/over-57000-thousands-lebanese-sign-a-petition-begging-macron-to-be-their-leader-and-demanding-that-lebanon-be-placed-under-french-rule-2529246.html):\nOver 57,000 people have signed an online petition to “place Lebanon under a French mandate for the next 10 years” as of Friday morning. The petition was directed at French President Emmanuel Macron, who on Thursday became the first foreign leader to arrive in Beirut since the tragedy struck.\nSo the question is: Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?\n---It must be formally recognized as French rule by at least 3 other Western powers. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:14:34.499Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 161,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T13:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Ethereum Merge (EIP-3675) occur by August 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-ethereum-merge-eip-3675-occur-by-august-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if The Merge will occur on the Ethereum mainnet as described in EIP-3675 (or any successor to EIP-3675) by the resolution time, August 1 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, transitioning the Ethereum blockchain to proof-of-stake.\n\nIf the first proof-of-stake block (defined in EIP-3675 as TRANSITION_BLOCK) is produced before the resolution time, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". \nOtherwise, the market will resolve \"No\".\n\nNote, that forks to the execution layer and the consensus layer implementing EIP-3675 will not have any impact on the market resolution. Only the actual occurrence of The Merge will be considered.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.4340988888340387969385858192152287",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.5659011111659612030614141807847713",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.518Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "88",
- "liquidity": "1079.52",
- "tradevolume": "4874.11",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0xe764dE3EA4006279fb0B371Ccdf0D53C9Da4560f"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the 7-day moving average of daily cases of COVID-19 in the US reported to the CDC next be 50,000 or lower?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2235-when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-us-reported-to-the-cdc-next-be-50-000-or-lower",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the CDC ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases)). The red line is the 7-day moving average of cases, which last which was last under 50,000 on 22 July 2021. Due to reporting lags, data for specific dates will not be evaluated for resolution until at least five calendar days later (e.g., data for 1 January 2022 wouldn't be evaluated until 6 January 2022), and data will be accessed for resolution no later than 5 August 2022. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Before 1 February 2022",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 February 2022 and 31 March 2022",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 April 2022 and 31 May 2022",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 June 2022 and 31 July 2022",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not before 1 August 2022",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:01:32.068Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 309,
- "numforecasters": 126,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 February 2022, Between 1 February 2022 and 31 March 2022, Between 1 April 2022 and 31 May 2022, Between 1 June 2022 and 31 July 2022, Not before 1 August 2022"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5252/aoc-for-president/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, also known by her initials AOC, is an American politician and a member of the Democratic Party, as well as the [Democratic Socialists of America](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/6/27/17509604/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-democratic-socialist-of-america). [Having taken her seat aged 29, Ocasio-Cortez is the youngest woman ever to serve in the United States Congress.](https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/06/politics/ocasio-cortez-youngest-woman-ever/index.html) She is a member of [\"The Squad\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Squad_%28United_States_Congress%29), and is decidedly on the left-wing of the Democratic Party.\nAmericans must be aged 35 or over to run for president. AOC will turn 35 a month before election day 2024, meaning that the first three election cycles where she is eligible to run are 2024, 2028, and 2032.\nWill AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles?\nThis question resolves positively if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is confirmed as the Democratic nominee for any of the presidential elections due to take place in 2024, 2028, or 2032. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nIf any of the three elections mentioned above does not happen, for any reason, this question resolves ambiguously. For the purposes of this question, an election which is delayed by more than a year from the original date is judged to not have happened.\nIn the case of a split in the Democratic Party, AOC will be deemed to be the \"Democratic Nominee\" if she is the nominee for one of the parties which forms from the split, and if that party is one of the two largest parties in the US (as measured by percentage of the popular vote in the presidential election for which AOC is the nominee). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:19:34.230Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 153,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-11-05T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "2024 DNOM is other than Biden or Harris",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A253",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-10-17T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "SCOTUS overturns Roe v. Wade by EOY 2022",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A264",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-01-26T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an incumbent traditional animal protein company take out a full-page ad that criticises plant-based, or cultivated meat, in either the NYT, WSJ or WaPo by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7058/anti-alt-food-adds-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In October of 2019, The Center for Consumer Freedom (CFF) ran an advertisement in the New York Times titled; [“What’s hiding in your plant-based meat?”](https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/burger-wars-heat-up-as-plantbased-meat-faces-backlash-205654350.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMoxVc4s4-uxH6_b34StT5kZ30SbqiviKfid0q8SOjj50JMCIfZox7VndqhGycRoO5WScHM4KBOuo5tmegO7vcpVDyd6D9LIUUaEQPoXhZMHAPVFYaKK2auMUbWGfeVkWR6pw9PgxfEO7VZPKlO1OWEIb7KUDvJY34lV7sFIQdEd). In another piece, the organisation claimed that “Fake meats are ultra-processed imitations with dozens of ingredients.” Meat and milk producers have become increasingly defensive over their turf, as alt-protein alternative have taken ahold of a growing market share. The incumbents seem to be turning to [lobbyists](https://thebeet.com/the-meat-wars-heat-up-lobbyists-launch-campaign-against-plant-based-alternatives/) and [marketing firms](https://www.wsj.com/articles/meat-and-milk-groups-seek-to-defend-supermarket-turf-11570465758?mod=article_inline) to strike back.\nWill an incumbent traditional animal protein company take out a full-page ad that criticises plant-based, or cultivated meat, in either the NYT, WSJ or WaPo by 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if one or more animal protein companies, or any groups representing these, take out a full-page advertisement in either the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, or the Washington Post before 2022-12-31 (inclusive). The advertisement must criticise or disparage plant-based or cultivated meat products, companies or technologies. This might take the form of substantive criticism, negative depictions or disparaging insinuations.\nPositive resolution does not require the entire ad to be a critique or disparagement of plant-based, or cultivated meat, but that a substantial portion of it is (at least 25% of the text in the body or 25% of the depictions by surface area).\nThe relevant advertisement must be taken out by traditional animal protein companies that operate in some stage of the animal-protein supply chain or any groups representing these (such as industry associations, trade or lobbying groups, and marketing agencies). In case of ambiguity, Metaculus admin, with the input relevant resolution council members, may freely decide the question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:02:06.450Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 158,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-22T23:08:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:08:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3386/will-a-us-consumer-be-unable-to-purchase-a-cavendish-banana-at-a-major-us-grocery-chain-on-2029-12-31/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 1965, the [Gros Michel Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana) was declared \"commercially extinct\", owing to a world-wide outbreak of [Fusarium Wilt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_disease) (or Panama Disease). [Fusarium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusarium_oxysporum_f.sp._cubense), a deadly fungus, had devastated commercial plantations worldwide. In spite of its greater vulnerability to rough handling, Commercial growers replaced the Gros Michel with the [Cavendish Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cavendish_banana) because of its robustness to Fusarium infection.\nThen, in the early 1990's, a new strain of Fusarium (called Tropical Race 4, or TR4) [was discovered](http://www.promusa.org/Tropical+race+4+-+TR4#Origin) killing off Cavendish trees in plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia. Later studies confirmed that [Cavendish trees are highly susceptible to TR4 infection.](https://web.archive.org/web/20140407090355/http://banana-networks.org/bapnet/files/2012/11/Risk-Assessment-EAHB1.pdf) In 2003, the [International Network for the Improvement of Banana and Plantain](http://www.promusa.org/INIBAP) [predicted](https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17723784-800-going-bananas/) that the Cavendish could face extinction within 10 years. Obviously that hasn't happened yet. However, [in August 2019](https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/08/16/751499719/devastating-banana-fungus-arrives-in-colombia-threatening-the-fruits-future), [TR4 was found killing off Cavendish trees in Colombian Plantations](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/banana-fungus-latin-america-threatening-future/), prompting the Colombian Government to declare a state of emergency.\nHope remains that [a genetically modified Cavendish](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01670-6) can be developed to maintain global banana supply. Others hope that another natural type of banana can be identified to replace the Cavendish.\nWill a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?\nA few fine points:\n---This question resolves positively Cavendish bananas are unavailable on on 2029-12-31. \n---The question resolves negatively if Cavendish bananas are still available (regardless of whether they're genetically modified or not). \n---This question will be resolved on 2029-12-31. Interruptions to the global banana supply prior to that date will not trigger an early positive resolution. \n---\"Available\" means that such bananas can be purchased from an ordinary grocery store (e.g. Wal-mart, Kroger, etc.). Niche markets (e.g. specialist fruit wholesalers, non-franchise farmer's markets, or stores which might carry Gros Michel bananas in 2019) will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:48:01.964Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 92,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1644/will-a-von-neumann-probe-be-launched-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nA von Neumann probe is an autonomous spacecraft capable of replicating itself. The concept is named after the 20th century Hungarian-American mathematician and physicist [John von Neumann](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann), who rigorously studied the concept of self-replicating machines that he called \"Universal Assemblers.\" While von Neumann never applied his work to the idea of spacecraft, theoreticians since then have done so.\nIn theory, a self-replicating spacecraft could be sent to a neighbouring planetary system, where it would seek out raw materials (extracted from asteroids, moons, planets, gas giants, etc.) to create replicas of itself. These replicas would then be sent out to other planetary systems. The original parent probe could then pursue its primary purpose within the star system. This mission varies widely depending on the variant of self-replicating starship proposed. \nIf a self-replicating probe finds evidence of primitive life (or even a primitive intelligent culture, analogous to that achieved by humans in the past) it might be programmed to lie dormant, silently observe, attempt to make contact, or even interfere with or guide the evolution of life in some way. \nIt has been [theorized](http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/ComparisonReproNov1980.htm) that a self-replicating starship utilizing relatively conventional theoretical methods of interstellar travel (i.e., no exotic faster-than-light propulsion, and speeds limited to an \"average cruising speed\" of 0.1c.) could spread a technological presence throughout a galaxy the size of the Milky Way in as little as half a million years, which is close to nothing on cosmological timescales. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWill a self-replicating autonomous spacecraft be dispatched into space by humanity (or by technological intelligence created by humanity) before January 1 2050?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nA spacecraft will count if it meets the criteria (per [Wikipedia's definition of self-replicating machines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_machine#Bootstrapping_Self-Replicating_Factories_in_Space)) of being capable of reproducing itself autonomously using raw materials found in the environment, thus exhibiting self-replication in a way analogous to that found in nature. \nFor positive resolution, the spacecraft must launch into space, but is not required to undergo a replication cycle.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:29:11.460Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 114,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will OlympusDAO (Ohm) suffer an exploit by March 31st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-olympusdao-ohm-suffer-an-exploit-by-march-31st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether OlympusDAO (Ohm) suffers an exploit between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Rekt News leaderboard, currently available at https://rekt.news/leaderboard/. \n\nIf OlympusDAO (Ohm) is listed on the resolution source as a protocol having suffered an exploit during the aforementioned market duration time, regardless of the size or ranking, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIn the case there is ambiguity over the validity of Rekt's Leaderboard, the project's primary communication channels (e.g. Twitter), and other credible crypto publications will be referenced by the arbiters of UMA's Optimistic Oracle.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the protocol is listed on the website.\n\nThe final check for this market will be on April 1, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. If the resolution source is unavailable, it will be checked every 24 hours, and if still unavailable a week later, the market will resolve to “No.”\n\nOnly exploits which have a date listed on the Rekt News Leaderboard between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive) will count.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1091395334216483233664725794880438",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8908604665783516766335274205119562",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.517Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "28",
- "liquidity": "3000.00",
- "tradevolume": "5675.81",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0x7737C56bD159a90D49E9e4bf63801c88b357ad2b"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will net neutrality be reimposed by June 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/NETNEU-001",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "There are two possible ways for the Contract to resolve to Yes. Either is sufficient.\n\nOption One: If a bill, rule, ruling or order reclassifies Broadband Internet access service as a common carrier, telecommunications service, or public utility under Title II of the Communications Act of 1934, then the Contract resolves to Yes.\n\nOption Two: If a bill, rule, ruling or order contains a no blocking rule, a no throttling rule, and a no paid prioritization rule, then the Contract resolves to Yes.\n\nPlease see NETNEU in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions. NETNEU in the Rulebook also contains far more details about these two options, as well as extensive examples from past bills and rules that may assist the member in understanding how the market is determined.\n\nIf the event occurs prior to the Expiration Date, then the market will close and expire early. It will close and expire at the expiration time one day following the occurrence of the event.. The resolution source is: Congressional bills that have become law between Listing and June 01, 2022 (inclusive) according to Congress.gov, and rules, rulings and orders from the Federal Communications Commission (“FCC”) issued between Listing and June 01, 2022 (inclusive) according to the Federal Register. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "yes_bid": 5,
- "yes_ask": 7,
- "spread": 2,
- "shares_volume": 3944
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025-01-20?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8154/proposal-to-ban-hydrazine-in-us-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Ten years ago [(mid 2011)](https://echa.europa.eu/candidate-list-table/-/dislist/details/0b0236e1807da31d) the classic propellant hydrazine was included in the list of substances of very high concern for authorization (SVHC) by [REACH legislation](https://echa.europa.eu/regulations/reach/legislation) of the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA). Hydrazine is one of the high performance monopropellants with low flame temperature, which makes it an efficient propellant. However, its toxicity to humans and environment has put, firstly, an economic burden on using such propellant during various development and operation phases. Secondly, an ethical burden toward the environment if such sense to be considered. It is worthy to note that hydrazine is not just an appealing efficient propellant for Space-use, but it is also seems to take a critical role in aeronautical military applications [such as fueling the auxiliary power units](https://web.archive.org/web/20160304084802/http:/oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA065595) of the F-16 fighters and Eurofighter Typhoon.\nSpeaking of today in 2021/2022 and from a technical point of view, the economical as well as the environmental hazards concerns are taken seriously into account when considering ‘space mission analysis & design.’ The latter two aspects when coupled are crucial during the conceptualization of a given space mission as well as developing modern spacecraft critical components such as the propulsion systems.\nBasically, space industry is currently oriented toward adopting the so-called ‘Green Propellants.’ A very simple technical definition for Green Propellants can state that the propellants possessing no (or very marginal) health concerns or environmental hazards either in storage, transportation, or operation phases of a project lifecycle, are considered to be ‘green’ – this would opt out propellants with high-toxicity like hydrazine, but fossil hydrocarbons are not yet considered ‘non-green’ fuels in the framework of Space propulsion applications in contrary to fuels in automobile industry. More detailed technical definitions can be referenced in the these academic articles: [Article 1](http://yadda.icm.edu.pl/baztech/element/bwmeta1.element.baztech-71f98242-5541-4f80-a02b-8b601f7fe31b), [Article 2](https://www.mdpi.com/2226-4310/8/1/20/htm#B3-aerospace-08-00020).\nCurrent Green Propellants industry is reaching maturity that several global research efforts have already provided commercially available and space-tested green propellants. Examples are: the US Air Force developed propellant AF-M315E (currently known and commercialized as [ASCENT](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/tdm/green/gpim-nears-completion.html)); the European [LMP-103S](https://www.ecaps.space/hpgp-performance.php) developed by Bradford ECAPS; and the Japanese [HNP-family](https://encyclopedia.pub/7693) of green monopropellants developed by [IHI Aerospace Co., Ltd](https://www.ihi.co.jp/ia/en/products/space/pinot/pinot-g/en/index.html). These propellants are suitable for spacecraft use in in-space propulsion, usually for the [small spacecraft class](https://www.nasa.gov/smallsat-institute/sst-soa-2020). \nThere were rumors among the aerospace European community ([particularly since 2017](https://spacenews.com/hydrazine-ban-could-cost-europes-space-industry-billions/)) that EU would ban completely the use of hydrazine by 2021, so far nothing is clear however about this intention.\nSee also [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8153/eu-ban-proposal-on-hydrazine-by-2025/) on a similar ban for the EU.\nWill the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025-01-20?\nThis question resolves positively if any branch of the US federal government makes a formal proposal to ban Hydrazine and Hydrazine-derivative spacecraft fuels before 2025-01-20. It is not necessary for this proposal to recieve a vote or become law to resolve this question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:41:18.963Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-10T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the US producer price index for Internet advertising sales in June 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2113-what-will-be-the-producer-price-index-for-internet-advertising-sales-in-june-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "After years of steady declines, the price of Internet advertising began to rise in the summer of 2020 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU365), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/ppi.asp)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2022 and the outcome determined using data as first provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for \"Internet advertising space sales, excluding Internet ads sold by print publishers\" (Commodity code 36-5) in June 2022, expected in July 2022 ([BLS - PPI Release Schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ppi.htm)). For June 2021, the unadjusted index was 65.3 ([BLS PPI Report - June 2021](https://www.bls.gov/ppi/detailed-report/ppi-detailed-report-june-2021.pdf), see page 24). For historical data, visit https://www.bls.gov/ppi/. Under \"PPI Databases,\" select \"ONE SCREEN\" from \"Commodity Data including 'headline' FD-ID indexes.\" For \"1 Select a Group,\" select \"36 Advertising space and time sales.\" For \"2 Select one or more Items,\" find and select \"365 Internet advertising sales, excluding Internet advertising sold by print publishers.\" For \"3 Select Seasonal Adjustment,\" leave only \"Not Seasonally Adjusted\" checked, then click \"Add to selection,\" and \"Get Data.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Lower than 60.0",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 60.0 and 66.0, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.34,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher than 66.0 but lower than 72.0",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 72.0 and 78.0, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher than 78.0 but lower than 84.0",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "84.0 or higher",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:04:57.433Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 147,
- "numforecasters": 29,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 60.0, Between 60.0 and 66.0, inclusive, Higher than 66.0 but lower than 72.0, Between 72.0 and 78.0, inclusive, Higher than 78.0 but lower than 84.0, 84.0 or higher"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7840/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/) asked if the United States would rejoin the JCPOA, informally known as the [Iran nuclear deal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) before 2022. Trump [withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal. Biden [has expressed interest](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) in returning to the deal.\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2023-01-01, 00:00 EST. The order must go into effect before 2023-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statement will suffice as a source.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:28:37.381Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 241,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-25T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a exascale volume of connectome be mapped and revealed to the public by June 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7316/exascale-connectome-mapped-by-june-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Shapson-Coe et al.](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.29.446289v1.full.pdf), published May 30th, 2021,\nWe acquired a rapidly preserved human surgical sample from the temporal lobe of the cerebral cortex. We stained a 1 mm3 volume with heavy metals, embedded it in resin, cut more than 5000 slices at ~30 nm and imaged these sections using a high-speed multibeam scanning electron microscope. We used computational methods to render the three-dimensional structure of 50,000 cells, hundreds of millions of neurites and 130 million synaptic connections. The 1.4 petabyte electron microscopy volume, the segmented cells, cell parts, blood vessels, myelin, inhibitory and excitatory synapses, and 100 manually proofread cells are [available to peruse online](https://h01-dot-neuroglancer-demo.appspot.com/). [...]\nThis improvement was in large part due to two noteworthy advances: fast imaging owing to multibeam scanning electron microscopy (Eberle et al. 2015) and the profound effect of AI on image processing and analysis (Januszewski et al. 2018). The rapid improvements over the past few years (Briggman, Helmstaedter, and Denk 2011; Bock et al. 2011; Helmstaedter et al. 2013; Takemura et al. 2013; Lee et al. 2016; Motta et al. 2019; Scheffer et al. 2020; Dorkenwald et al. 2020; Yin et al. 2020; Gour et al. 2021) argues that analyzing volumes that are even three orders of magnitude larger, such as an exascale whole mouse brain connectome, will likely be in reach within a decade (Abbott et al. 2020). [Emphasis added]\nSee also this [accompanying blog post from the Google AI Blog](https://ai.googleblog.com/2021/06/a-browsable-petascale-reconstruction-of.html).\nWill a exascale volume of connectome be mapped and revealed to the public by June 2031?\nThis question resolves positively, if before June 1st 2031, a reliable paper, blog post, or some other article appears in the literature indicating that researchers had digitally mapped a section of an animal connectome using some high-resolution scanning technology, such by [serial section electron microscopy](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/jmi.122240), and the size of that map meets or exceeds one exabyte. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nExtra junk information, such as a researcher adding 999 petabytes of zeros at the end of their file (as unlikely as this may be), cannot count towards resolution, and admins will use their discretion in this regard. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:09:19.088Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-06T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-02-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-06-01T07:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Soylent-like meal replacements be labeled unhealthy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6967/soylent-and-health/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [meal replacement](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Meal_replacement) is\na drink, bar, soup, etc. intended as a substitute for a solid food meal, usually with controlled quantities of calories and nutrients.\nMeal replacements may be consumed instead of traditional foodstuffs for several reasons, like dietary restrictions, price, and convenience.\nA class of meal replacements claiming to be nutritionally complete has gained popularity over the last decade. They are consumed as shakes and sold either in powder form or pre-mixed with water. Prime examples include [Soylent](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Soylent_%28meal_replacement%29) and [Huel](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Huel). A more comprehensive list can be found on [blendrunner.com](https://www.blendrunner.com/).\nDue to their novelty, it is unclear whether they're in fact nutritionally complete, as there could be unknown unknowns in human nutrition. Moreover, no empirical studies have established the safety of using them as one's main or sole food source over the long-term.\nWill Soylent-like meal replacements be labeled unhealthy before 2030?\nThis question resolves positive if, before 2030/1/1, the FDA or the EFSA do any of the following:\n1-- \nIssuing official guidelines stating that a healthy diet should not rely on meal replacements of this kind alone. It should be clear from the phrasing that they're referring to Soylent-like products specifically, i.e. products consumed as shakes and claiming to be nutritionally complete.\n2-- \nBanning an ingredient or manufacturing procedure currently used by any of the products listed in the fine print.\nList of products, taken from [blendrunner.com](https://www.blendrunner.com/):\n---Soylent Powder/Drink \n---Huel Powder/Ready-to-drink \n---Queal Steady \n---Jimmy Joy's Plenny Shake/Drink \n---ManaPowder/ManaDrink \n---Saturo Powder/Drink \nIf additional products are listed by [blendrunner.com](http://blendrunner.com) in this category, they will not be considered for the purposes of this question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:57:48.925Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 86,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-07T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-11-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8931/carlsen-plays-next-chess-world-championship/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Magnus Carlsen, the current and five-time [world chess champion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship), has recently [hinted](https://chess24.com/en/read/news/carlsen-hints-he-s-played-last-world-championship-match) that the 2021 World Chess Championship may have been the final time he will defend his title against a challenger.\nWill Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?\nThis question resolves positively if Carlsen plays and finishes at least one game in the next World Chess Championship match (so the first one after the championship held in 2021). It resolves negatively if the championship is held but Carlsen is not one of the players, and it resolves ambiguously if the championship is not held until the resolution date of the question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:19:29.935Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 50,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-21T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-09-30T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7652/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-New-Mexico-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that the candidate is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed representation, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.6862745098039215,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.3137254901960784,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:05:21.489Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 9342
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of the plaintiffs in Carson v. Makin on constitutional grounds?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/CARVMAK-001",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If the Supreme Court rules in favor of the plaintiff on constitutional grounds in Carson v. Makin, then the market resolves to Yes. A ruling in favor of the plaintiff on constitutional grounds includes a holding that Maine’s prohibition on the use of state-aid to “sectarian” schools is unconstitutional. A ruling is still considered “in favor of the plaintiff on constitutional grounds” if the broader prohibition is struck down on constitutional grounds even if the particular schools that the plaintiffs wish to send their children to (Bangor Christian and Temple Academy) still cannot receive public funding. \n\nThe above is a summary of the terms and conditions. Please see CARVMAK in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions. All market participants should read and familiarize themselves with the terms and conditions prior to trading on the market.\n\nIf the event occurs prior to the Expiration Date, then the market will close and expire early. It will close and expire at the expiration time one day following the occurrence of the event.. The resolution source is: Judgments of the Court and Opinions of the Court from the Supreme Court of the United States. Such opinions may include slip opinions, bench opinions and per curiam opinions, and includes opinions and judgments that are posted to the Supreme Court’s website. Dissents and concurrences are not included in the Underlying. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.10999999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "yes_bid": 90,
- "yes_ask": 91,
- "spread": 1,
- "shares_volume": 5470
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Missouri?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7204/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Missouri",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Missouri U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:57:46.555Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 60522
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8644/first-detonation-by-2050-inadvertent/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations:\n\"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\"\n\"In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\"\n\"In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.\"\nThe only non-test nuclear detonations as of 2021 were deliberate detonations on Japan in 1945. However there have been [several opportunities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls) where inadvertent and deliberate launches had nearly occurred. Inadvertent launches could also occur if weapons facilities fall out of maintenance, if subordinates disobey the chain of command, or if non-state actors infiltrate a nuclear weapons facility (similar to the [2012 Plowshares protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plowshares_movement#Recent_actions)). Understanding which type of detonation are most likely to precipitate a conflict may help us understand which kinds of risks are most urgent, as well as which kinds of conflicts might develop.\nIf an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?\nThis question will resolve positively if there is at least 1 non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon between this question opening and 2050-01-01, and the first detonation in this period was inadvertent, as defined above. If there is no non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon during this period, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nA detonation will be considered \"a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon\" if the detonation is not a test detonation or peaceful nuclear explosion (see the fine print), a country owned the weapon, and credible sources generally agree on which country owned the nuclear weapon. This can include detonations by non-state actors who have acquired a state's nuclear weapon.\nResolution will come from official statements by the heads of government or military, declassified or leaked documents, or from analysis of non-government nuclear/military experts. In the case there is significant ambiguity or disagreement about the precipitating events of the first nuclear detonation, resolution may be delayed until 2105-01-01, or resolve ambiguously at the discretion of Metaculus admins.\nRelated questions\n--- \n[If a nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be launched accidentally or without authorization?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8645/first-detonation-accidentalunauthorized/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7455/unauthorised-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7454/inadvertent-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7407/deliberate-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:05:20.451Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By April 2023, will China approve cultivated meat for human consumption?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8844/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-china/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On November 26, 2020, Singapore became the first country to approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat([https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1…](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/)). China could be one of its successors.\nAs [the Good Food Institute](https://gfi.org/blog/china-is-making-moves-on-cultivated-meat/) states:\n\"A National Key R&D Program titled “Green Biological Manufacturing” was launched by China’s Ministry of Science and Technology in late 2020. Plant-based and cultivated meat manufacturing are among the 20+ research projects supported by this grant, which will unleash a reported 600 million RMB ($93M USD) in funding. It is estimated that around 20 million RMB of that will be specifically aimed at developing alternative protein.\"\nPeople in China consumed 86 million tonnes of meat in 2020, about 30% of global demand. Thus we ask:\nBy April 2023, will China approve cultivated meat for human consumption?\nThis question resolves positively if China approves at least one cultivated meat product for human consumption (or issues a more general approval for a class of cultivated meat products) before April 1, 2023. The question resolves positively even if the approval is later rescinded.\nFor a product to be deemed a \"cultivated meat product\", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).\nResolution is by credible news source, reports from regulators, or statements by relevant cultivated meat companies.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:14:12.930Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-13T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Between 30 December 2021 and 31 May 2022, will NATO and/or a NATO member state accuse Russian national military forces of invading Ukraine?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2236-between-30-december-2021-and-31-may-2022-will-nato-and-or-a-nato-member-state-accuse-russian-national-military-forces-of-invading-ukraine",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Tensions remain high between Russia and Ukraine, which includes a major military buildup near the border of Ukraine that concerns NATO and others ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/21/europe/russia-europe-us-nato-ukraine-intl/index.html), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/21/putin-blames-west-for-tensions-as-fears-rise-over-ukraine), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59696450)). For the purposes of this question, \"invading Ukraine\" would mean Russia sending ground national military forces into Ukraine without consent from the Ukrainian government in Kyiv. Accusations regarding actions in Crimea would be immaterial.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, invading Ukrainian territory outside of Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts as well as other Ukrainian territory",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.59,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:01:29.701Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 968,
- "numforecasters": 273,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only, Yes, invading Ukrainian territory outside of Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only, Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts as well as other Ukrainian territory, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related question: [Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/a-house-divided-against-itself/)\nThe United States Senate can expel any of its own members if some fraction (current law requires two thirds) of members vote to do so. No one else can do so before the Senator's term ends. Only 15 Senators have been expelled; many Senators prefer to resign.\nTensions have been high in the Senate recently. Expulsion has been mentioned by partisans on both sides.\nWill the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?\nThis question resolves to Yes if, by February 1, 2023, an official record of Senate proceedings indicates that any Senator was expelled by the Senate during the 21 months ending January 3, 2023.\n\"Senator\" means any properly-certified person who has taken the Senatorial oath prior to 2023. If a person is elected or appointed to the Senate, but is not sworn in, the person is not a Senator. If a person's Senate term has ended, that person is no longer a Senator; retroactive or posthumous expulsions would not resolve the question.\nThe question resolves to ambiguous if expulsion of a Senator by vote of other senators becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment eliminating the Senate would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an amendment changing the expulsion procedure would not. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:42:43.868Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 188,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-10T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-02T01:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1478/will-the-extremely-large-telescope-see-first-light-by-the-end-of-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) is an extremely cool project. Here are the basics, courtesy [Space.com's reporting](https://www.space.com/40746-extremely-large-telescope.html):\nIn the mountains of Chile sits the site of what will become the largest optical telescope in the world. The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) will have a primary mirror made up of almost 800 individual segments and will be capable of collecting more light than all of the existing 8-to-10-meter telescopes on the planet, combined.\nAmong [other things](https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/telescopes/a20264196/foundation-construction-extremely-large-telescope-chile/):\n[the ELT] will allow astronomers to probe the earliest ages of the universe, study ancient galaxies, measure exoplanet atmospheres, and answer dozens of lingering questions in astronomy\nUnsurprisingly, astronomers and space geeks everywhere are champing at the bit to put the pedal to the metal. But the project is big... and expensive. The original price tag was [$1.34 billion](https://www.space.com/27930-european-extremely-large-telescope-construction-approved.html). And delays on these projects can derail deadlines easily. Witness the [debacle](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/06/nasa-james-webb-space-telescope-delay-human-error/563903/) that has been NASA's James Webb Space Telescope.\nWill the mission arrive on time? Will the ELT see first light in 2024? \nResolution is positive if by major media account \"first light\" (which is a pretty standard term) has been achieved by start of 2025.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:23:56.366Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 124,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:17:22.731Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 456,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8831/liz-truss-to-become-tory-leader-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Elizabeth Mary Truss](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liz_Truss), born 26 July 1975, is a British politician serving as Foreign Secretary since 2021 and Minister for Women and Equalities since 2019. A member of the Conservative Party, Truss has served in various cabinet positions under Prime Ministers David Cameron, Theresa May and Boris Johnson.\nAs of December 2021, Truss enjoys a [very high approval rating from members of the Conservative Party.](https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/11/our-cabinet-league-table-johnson-is-back-in-negative-ratings.html)\nWill Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if before 1 January 2025, Elizabeth Truss holds the office of Leader of the Conservative Party on a permanent basis (an interim leadership pending a leadership contest does not count). The question resolves negatively if this does not occur.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:13:31.432Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 93,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "A COVID variant is declared a VOHC by 2022 Mar 1",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A255",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-11-27T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/) \nStarlink as been [speaking openly about an IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). This question will be judged yes if Starlink or a parent company with full ownership(i.e. SpaceX) conduct an IPO or if a publicly traded company acquires majority ownership of Starlink. Otherwise the question will resolve no.\nWill starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?\nThis will be judged according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, New York Times or Washington Post posted to the discussion below. If Starlink does not go public by 2030-01-01 00:00 UTC, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:50:18.699Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-02-17T21:15:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-03-17T20:15:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7099/silg-to-survive-the-mid-term/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Simon Institute for Longterm Governance](https://www.simoninstitute.ch/) is a [recently launched](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/eKn7TDxMSSsoHhcap/introducing-the-simon-institute-for-longterm-governance-si) institution with the hope of bridging the gap between theory and practice in longtermist policy-making.\nWill the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, a full-time equivalent is defined as working 35 hours per week, without including volunteers. Question will be resolved negatively if the project has clearly been abandoned, otherwise, reports by the organization together with best estimates by Metaculus moderators will be used.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:03:56.308Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-11T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7129/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "David McCormick",
- "probability": 0.5254237288135593,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mehmet Oz",
- "probability": 0.25423728813559315,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jeff Bartos",
- "probability": 0.07627118644067796,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Carla Sands",
- "probability": 0.050847457627118633,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kathy Barnette",
- "probability": 0.016949152542372878,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Everett Stern",
- "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
- "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ryan Costello",
- "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Guy Reschenthaler",
- "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Charlie Dent",
- "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sean Parnell",
- "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Keith Rothfus",
- "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "George Bochetto",
- "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sean Gale",
- "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:56:12.050Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 601318
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "David McCormick, Mehmet Oz, Jeff Bartos, Carla Sands, Kathy Barnette, Everett Stern, Donald Trump Jr., Ryan Costello, Guy Reschenthaler, Charlie Dent, Sean Parnell, Keith Rothfus, George Bochetto, Sean Gale"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the federal funds rate be above 0.5% following the Fed's December meeting? ",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/FED-012",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If the target federal funds rate is greater than 0.5% following the Federal Reserve's December 14, 2022 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see FED in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.\n\nThis market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their December 14, 2022 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting. . The resolution source is: The upper bound of the target federal funds range published on the Federal Reserve official website. (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.93,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.06999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "yes_bid": 93,
- "yes_ask": 95,
- "spread": 2,
- "shares_volume": 4348
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1059/before-2051-will-a-meteor-cause-more-injuries-than-the-one-that-shook-chelyabinsk-russia-in-2013/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In February, 2013, a meteor [scorched](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggLTPyRXUKc) the Russian skies. EarthSky gives the [key details](http://earthsky.org/space/meteor-asteroid-chelyabinsk-russia-feb-15-2013): \nA small asteroid with an estimated size of 65 feet... was moving at 12 miles per second (~19 km/sec) when it struck the protective blanket of air around our planet, which did its job and caused the asteroid to explode. The bright, hot explosion took place only about 20 miles (30 km) above the city of Chelyabinsk in Russia and carried 20 to 30 times the energy of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Its shock wave broke windows and knocked down parts of buildings in six Russian cities and caused some 1,500 people to seek medical attention for injuries, mostly from flying glass.\nIt's only a matter of time before more space rocks as big as (or bigger than) the one that caused the Chelyabinsk Event find their way to Earth.\nBefore 2051-01-01, will an event cause more injuries than the Chelyabinsk meteor, which injured 1491 people ([russian source](https://web.archive.org/web/20130502144652/http://top.rbc.ru/incidents/18/02/2013/845595.shtml), [wp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelyabinsk_meteor))? More specifically, will a meteor next injure at least 1492 people? This resolves according to credible media reports, or their median estimate if several are found.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:19:38.241Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 62,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-10-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8380/test-of-nuclear-weapon-above-30-mt-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nWhether any country has very high-yield nuclear weapons in its arsenal is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.\nWill any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?\nThe question will resolve positively if by 2030-01-01 there are reports of such a test by reputable sources.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:52:20.688Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the market capitalization for Shiba Inu on 31 August 2022, according to CoinMarketCap?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2190-what-will-be-the-market-capitalization-for-shiba-inu-on-31-august-2022-according-to-coinmarketcap",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The outcome will be determined using the \"Close\" value dated 31 August 2022 as reported by CoinMarketCap under \"Historical Data for SHIBA INU\" the morning of 1 September 2022 ([CoinMarketCap - Shiba Inu](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/shiba-inu/historical-data/)). The market capitalization for Shiba Inu on 31 October 2021 was $36,919,669,979.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $15 billion",
- "probability": 0.58,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $15 billion and $25 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.29,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $25 billion but less than $35 billion",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $35 billion and $45 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $45 billion but less than $55 billion",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "$55 billion or more",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:02:47.887Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 160,
- "numforecasters": 40,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $15 billion, Between $15 billion and $25 billion, inclusive, More than $25 billion but less than $35 billion, Between $35 billion and $45 billion, inclusive, More than $45 billion but less than $55 billion, $55 billion or more"
- },
- {
- "title": ">=46 Dem-held seats after 2022 Senate elections",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A166",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.050000000000000044,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-06-04T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the Republican nomination in the TX-08 House election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7699/Who-will-win-the-Republican-nomination-in-the-TX-08-House-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Republican nomination in the 2022 election to the United States House of Representatives from Texas' Eighth Congressional District.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Morgan Luttrell",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Christian Collins",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dan McKaughan",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jonathan Hullihan",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Taylor Whichard",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:07:16.170Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 5256
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Morgan Luttrell, Christian Collins, Dan McKaughan, Jonathan Hullihan, Taylor Whichard"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 1 January 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1625/by-1-january-2050-will-it-be-possible-to-increase-a-healthy-adult-humans-iq-by-at-least-two-standard-deviations-in-less-than-30-days/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Arguably the most important single difference between humans and all other life is the degree to which human intelligence allows for radically more complex forms of socialization, cooperation, activity and achievement. No other species in the universe (to our knowledge) has created the kind of complex civilization that humans have created, or anything close to it, and this is due to the large advantage that humans have acquired in intelligence.\nThe most widely-accepted tool for measuring human intelligence is the IQ test. The population average is fixed arbitrarily at 100, and the results of a population fit a Gaussian probability distribution, also known as a bell curve. Approximately two-thirds of the population score between one standard deviation below the mean and one standard deviation above the mean. About 2.5% of the population scores at or above two standard deviations above the mean, and 2.5% scores at or below two standard deviations below the mean. The difference in ability this represents is large. A person with an IQ two standard deviations below the mean is considered to have less than a 50% chance of graduating from high school, whereas a person with an IQ two standard deviations above the mean has a slightly higher IQ than the average holder of a Juris Doctor degree (an IQ of 126).\nPsychometricians generally regard IQ tests as having high statistical reliability and predictive validity.\nA high statistical reliability implies that although test-takers may have varying scores when taking the same test on differing occasions, and although they may have varying scores when taking different IQ tests at the same age, the scores generally agree with one another and across time. \nA high predictive validity implies that the results of the test provide you useful insights into the test-taker, and IQ scores are significantly correlated with a number of important life outcomes including job performance, academic achievement, likelihood of being out of the labor force more than one month out of the year, and many others. More information is available [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient). \nBecause of the importance of human intelligence, it would arguably be highly valuable both to individuals and to humanity if it were possible to meaningfully increase it through some kind of intervention, whether medical, technological or otherwise.\nBefore 1 January 2050, will it be demonstrated to be possible through any kind of intervention to increase the intelligence of a physically and mentally healthy adult human below the age of 65, with an IQ no lower than one standard deviation below the United States population mean, by at least two standard deviations above their initial mean score?\nThis mean score is to be generated from three standardized IQ tests taken by a reliable test-taker giving their best effort using either the Raven's Progressive Matrices test or a similar non-verbal culture-fair test, with the post-intervention scores generated by the same method, and with the tests before and after intervention supervised and the results validated by at least three suitably qualified psychometricians independent of the persons or group responsible for the attempt.\nFurthermore, the test-taker must be independent of the group or individual responsible for developing or carrying out the attempt, and the test-taker must not be a professional psychometrician, professional quizzer, or have ever been involved in the design of intelligence or other psychometric tests.\nThe final test score must be obtained within 30 days of the commencement of whatever intervention is utilized in the attempt to increase the test-taker's score (in order to minimize the possibility of an individual achieving such a large score increase through extensive training and practice).\nFinally, the mean score for the test subject cannot initially be 2.5 standard deviations above the mean or higher, as it is unclear how reliable the IQ test is for scores above the +4.5 sigma range (i.e. after a 2 standard deviation increase on a 15 SD scale), given that these scores are exceptionally rare.\nThis resolves positively if by 1 January 2050, \n--- \n30 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 3 separate tests, or\n--- \n100 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 2 separate tests, or\n--- \n200 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 1 separate test.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:28:03.197Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 270,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will US average new COVID-19 cases ever fall below March 2020 levels in 2022?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/SCASE-002",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If the seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for the United States is below 11,790 for a single day between Issuance and December 31, 2022, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. \n\nNote that this Contract may close and expire early. It will expire the first 10:00 AM following the CDC reporting the event has occured, the first 10:00 AM following data being released for December 31, 2022, or 10:00 AM on January 05, 2023.. The resolution source is: The seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases for the United States according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4,
- "yes_bid": 69,
- "yes_ask": 70,
- "spread": 1,
- "shares_volume": 24684
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. \nMembers of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. \nThere are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building.\nWill Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?\nThis question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state.\nResolution by credible reports and/or absence of credible reports. If the result is unclear, this question may resolve ambiguous. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:37:26.390Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 324,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-20T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-30T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least three US counties lock down (close haircut appointments) due to Omicron by EOY 2022",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0&range=A258",
- "platform": "Peter Wildeford",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-12-16T00:00:00.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3159/will-wework-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-1-january-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "WeWork (officially \"The We Company\") is an American commercial real estate company that provides shared workspaces for technology startups, and services for other enterprises. Founded in 2010, it is headquartered in New York City. [As of 2018, WeWork manages 46.63 million square feet of commercial real estate.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-surpasses-jpmorgan-as-biggest-occupier-of-manhattan-office-space-1537268401) \n[In 2019, WeWork attempted to go public in an IPO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WeWork#2019), seeking a [valuation as high as $47 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo?r=US&IR=T) However, [concerns about corporate governance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-corporate-governance-nightmare-204330915.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIrC3q_C9YN2lZ0eRlApJAfGJnNEtpzzX2iJy7AodPkGkJY6O1FFMOhHk30lBFqBx2vfPE_rSu4VEDsDgjx8kv2bSDcHiPCLBkWjb0lr60rvFU5Knzj8nQWEyoqznhMfmlDWDfonPEi_NRsW7yycUOq9DmU4tOMSC9Td2xdsyIkt) and the company's [$47 billion in lease obligations](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-02/wework-ipo-lease-obligations-and-an-ugly-balance-sheet) led to a dramatic reduction in the company's proposed IPO valuation, which fell [to as low as $10 billion.](https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-wework-ipo-valuation-exclusive/exclusive-wework-considers-ipo-valuation-of-as-low-as-10-billion-sources-idUKKCN1VY1PE) Additionally, [the CEO of the company resigned at the request of existing investors.](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/24/20882034/wework-ceo-adam-neumann-stepping-down-chairman) [Ultimately, the company filed to withdraw its IPO prospectus.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/wework-withdraws-ipo-prospectus-as-new-co-ceos-delay-offering)\nThe company remains unprofitable, and [had losses of nearly $2 billion in 2018.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/business/dealbook/wework-loss-billion.html)\nThis question asks: Will The We Company, or any parent company thereof, file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by citation of a relevant court filing or credible media reports in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:42:50.536Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 501,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Tunisia hold a constitutional referendum before 1 August 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2226-will-tunisia-hold-a-constitutional-referendum-before-1-august-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "On 13 December 2021, Tunisian President Kais Saied announced that the country would hold a referendum on a new constitution on 25 July 2022, exactly one year after he froze parliament and took over political control of the country ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/tunisia-is-setting-itself-up-for-an-autocratic-future), [France 24](https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20211213-tunisian-president-calls-referendum-on-constitutional-change-sets-poll-date), [Brookings Institution](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/07/26/kais-saieds-power-grab-in-tunisia/)). A referendum on either a new constitution or amendments to the existing constitution would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:01:51.512Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 163,
- "numforecasters": 121,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2788/by-2025-will-laws-be-in-place-requiring-that-ai-systems-that-emulate-humans-must-reveal-to-people-that-they-are-ai/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Cross-posted from [ai.metaculus](http://ai.metaculus.com). Originally sourced from [Science Bets](http://sciencebets.org/one_sided_predictions.html). \nAs AI gets more powerful, it is likely that systems that can \"pass a Turing test\" and deceive people into believing that the AI is human will become available and controversial.\nFor example, the Google Duplex bot courted controversy with its extremely accurate mimicking of a human's voice, dialogue, and cadence. Public backlash prompted Google to [announce that the system would always first identify itself as a bot](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-10/google-grapples-with-horrifying-reaction-to-uncanny-ai-tech).\nBy 2025, will there be laws in place in a country requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they use AI?\nRelated Questions: [When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/418/when-will-the-first-law-concerning-artificial-intelligence-be-passed-in-the-us/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:35:16.939Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 176,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-10T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-02-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-16T10:05:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9535/usa-leads-in-embryo-selection-for-iq/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/).\nThe United States is a [world leader in science and technology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_the_United_States) and is [leading the world in Nobel Prizes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonbruner/2011/10/05/nobel-prizes-and-american-leadership-in-science-infographic/?sh=42afd89d2b85). American companies Pfizer and Moderna developed two of the most effective COVID vaccines, and the United States had an early vaccination drive, vaccinating 10% of its population by early February 2021, earlier than the vast majority of other countries. The United States has [no regulations on preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5612618/), and it is home to embryo selection startups like [Genomic Prediction](https://www.lifeview.com/) and [Orchid](https://www.orchidhealth.com/embryo). [Public polling](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) shows that the US public is not particularly supportive of \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence but [younger Americans are more supportive of the technology](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2015/07/01/chapter-5-public-views-about-biomedical-issues/). There has been some political opposition to embryo selection and other scientfiic advances from the [right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_the_Republican_Party#Abortion_and_embryonic_stem_cell_research), as many right-wing Americans are Christians who believe that [life beings at conception](https://www.princeton.edu/~prolife/articles/embryoquotes2.html) as well as from the [left](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1jb7w02E5GAdrJ_QnAokp7IerP_VBDridmQ-rI9M2TAE/edit), who have referred to embryo selection as \"eugenics\". The [first polygenically screened baby](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/welcome-polygenically-screened-babies) was [born in the United States](https://www.ivfbabble.com/on-the-40th-anniversary-of-the-first-ivf-in-the-usa-the-first-baby-elizabeth-jordan-carr-looks-at-how-science-today-has-produced-a-new-world-first-baby-aurea/) in 2021. Abortion [remains legal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_the_United_States) in the United States, and [recent challenges](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/20/supreme-court-texas-abortion-law-challenge/) to the legal status of abortion have not called for the criminalization of preimplantation diagnosis, or even for the criminalization of abortion in the first few weeks past pregnancy.\n[American](https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838) [media](https://www.vice.com/en/article/5gw8vn/chinas-taking-over-the-world-with-a-massive-genetic-engineering-program) has suggested that China, which is a [rival](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations) of the United States and has a quickly growing [biotechnology industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology_industry_in_China), will embrace embryo selection for intelligence. American professors have expressed [concern](https://quillette.com/2021/08/19/as-us-schools-prioritize-diversity-over-merit-china-is-becoming-the-worlds-stem-leader/) that the United States is losing its edge over China in scientific progress.\nWill the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States is the first country with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\nMoreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:44:45.778Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/kamala-harris-wins-2024-us-presidency/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris):\nKamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. \nIf Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination.\nWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential election?\nIf Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively.\nIf Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:21:57.902Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 548,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-02T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-04T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party candidate will win the Birmingham Erdington by-election?",
- "url": "https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.193978152",
- "platform": "Betfair",
- "description": "This market will be turned in-play with unmatched bets cancelled at the start of voting on the day of the by-election. Thereafter, the market will not be actively managed. ***ALL BETS STAND RUN OR NOT*** Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. If the By-Election is not held before the end of 2022 then all bets will be voided. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made regarding the result of the by-election. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Labour",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:00:25.987Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "volume": 1505.39
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Labour"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7688/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Wisconsin.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Rebecca Kleefisch",
- "probability": 0.68,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kevin Nicholson",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jonathan Wichmann",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Adam Fischer",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:06:44.969Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 2420
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Rebecca Kleefisch, Kevin Nicholson, Jonathan Wichmann, Adam Fischer"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/490/will-the-2022-fifa-world-cup-go-ahead-in-qatar/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In December 2010 it was announced that Qatar had won the right to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup, the most prestigious tournament in international association football.\nThe decision was controversial for a number of reasons. Suggestions of corruption and bribery fell under an FBI investigation leading to the fall of FIFA President Sepp Blatter. The tournament is traditionally held in the summer, during which the daytime temperature in Qatar can surpass 50 degrees Celsius, making hosting the tournament safely for players and fans a challenge.\nIn the middle of 2017, Qatar's neighbours Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE have [cut off diplomatic relations and blockaded the border,](https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/jun/05/2022-world-cup-qatar-under-threat-saudi-arabia-blockade-fifa-football) accusing Qatar of funding and aiding terrorist organisations, placing the competition under threat.\nThis question asks:\nWill Qatar manage to host the 2022 tournament. It will resolve positively if the World Cup, as sanctioned by FIFA takes place in 2022 in Qatar. \nSince there is a possibility of a winter tournament, a World Cup that partially takes place over 2021 or 2023 still resolves positively.\nA positive resolution will require all of the matches to be played in Qatar, and for the World Cup to not face a boycott by serious playing nations (which we can define here as any previous winner).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.29000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:11:34.795Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 91,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-07-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2050, Will at least 20% of US births be screened as embryos to detect genetic disorders or disabilities?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8505/20-embryo-screened-births-us-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Embryo screening](https://www.pennmedicine.org/for-patients-and-visitors/find-a-program-or-service/penn-fertility-care/embryo-screening/treatments-and-procedures) is the process of examining the genome of an embryo to determine if certain genes or sets of genes are present (the technical term is [preimplantation genetic testing (PGD)](https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/gynecology_obstetrics/specialty_areas/fertility-center/infertility-services/preimplantation-genetic-testing.html)). Examining embryos for genetic defects can allow prospective parents to select embryos without genetic defects to implant and carry to term. Currently this process is most prevalently used during [in vitro fertilization (IVF)](https://www.mayoclinic.org/tests-procedures/in-vitro-fertilization/about/pac-20384716), where eggs are fertilized by sperm in a lab to create the embryo before being implanted into the uterus. IVF is generally intended to help parents who have trouble conceiving or may be at elevated risk of birth defects.\nSome expect embryo screening for health defects to gain in popularity in the future. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about embryo screening in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nSex and reproduction will become even more separated, and screening multiple embryos for their health before implantation will be common, although not universal.\nAccording to the National Center for Health Statistics there were [3.75 million babies born in the US in 2019 and 3.6 million in 2020](https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-05-05/us-birth-rates-continue-to-fall). According to the CDC, approximately [1.9% of infants born each year were conceived using assisted reproductive technology (ART)](https://www.cdc.gov/art/artdata/index.html), the main type of which is IVF. One study estimates that [4% to 6% of all IVF cycles in the US used PGD](https://www.fertstert.org/article/S0015-0282%2807%2901216-2/fulltext).\nBy 2050, Will at least 20% of US births be screened as embryos to detect genetic disorders or disabilities?\nThis question will resolve positively if at least 20% of babies born in the United States in any year before 2050 underwent embryo screening or PGD, according to credible media reports, statements by the US government, or public health agencies. Screening must have taken place before the embryo was implanted in the uterus.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:56:19.736Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T17:44:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2055-12-31T17:44:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/19/2020.\nThis market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 11/19/2020 9:55 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: The Rules expressly state that this market concerns whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be \"a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District.\" If she is not a ballot-listed candidate in such primary in the district numbered NY-14, this market will resolve No.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.06000000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:29.077Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 126544
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Bitcoin or Ethereum perform better in February 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-or-ethereum-perform-better-in-february-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether $BTC or $ETH will perform better on a percentage % basis, in terms of relative change in their USD prices, in the month of February 2022. \n\nThe change of prices will be calculated by dividing the coin’s Open price dated 2022-03-01 (ET) by the price dated 2022-02-01, for both $BTC and $ETH, using CoinGecko’s historical pricing data. \n\nIf $BTC’s relative change is greater than $ETH’s, the market will resolve to “Bitcoin”, and if $ETH’s relative change is greater than $BTC, the market will resolve to “Ethereum”. If they are exactly equal, the market will resolve to 50:50.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Bitcoin",
- "probability": "0.368255657259673494164497912147158",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ethereum",
- "probability": "0.631744342740326505835502087852842",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:54:02.519Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "17",
- "liquidity": "2999.95",
- "tradevolume": "1117.91",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "address": "0xf6867a88bde71088100863fF9d3A6Be35E777D05"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Bitcoin, Ethereum"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6455/an-eu-animal-welfare-label-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "At present, there is only one EU-wide compulsory system of labelling on animal welfare, which applies to [table eggs](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=LEGISSUM%3A4324376). It defines different production methods (0 = organic egg production 1 = free-range eggs 2 = deep litter indoor housing 3 = cage farming). There are also EU voluntary marketing standards for [poultry meat](https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/animals-and-animal-products/animal-products/poultry_en), which includes reference to types of farming.There are currently a dozen different labelling schemes on farm animal welfare in at least six European countries.\nIn its [Farm to Fork Strategy](https://ec.europa.eu/food/farm2fork_en) published in May 2020, the EU Commission referred to labelling as “a central instrument to provide consumers high-quality information, regarding the sustainability level of food production, the nutritional value of food items, as well as consumer information related to animal welfare”. On 15 June 2020, the European Commission established, under the [EU Platform on Animal Welfare](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/eu-platform-animal-welfare_en), a sub-group on animal welfare labelling. The sub-group will assist the Commission in collecting data on previous experiences on animal welfare labelling. The European Commission is going to start a [study on animal welfare labelling in 2021](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/other_aspects/labelling_en), leading to a proposal following this. \nOn December 15 2020, the Council of the European Union on Agriculture and Fisheries adopted a [joint position](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-13691-2020-INIT/en/pdf) that asks the European Commission to consider the development of a tiered transparent labelling scheme allowing for sufficient incentives for producers to improve animal welfare. \nIn a July 2020 [survey](https://ec.europa.eu/food/sites/food/files/animals/docs/aw_platform_20201103_pres-01.pdf) of 25 of the 27 EU governments, only 15 prefer the implementation of an EU-wide animal welfare label through EU legislation.\nThe [Eurobarometer survey from 2015](https://data.europa.eu/euodp/en/data/dataset/S2096_84_4_442_ENG) showed that 52% of European consumers look for labels that identify products from animal welfare-friendly production systems.\nWill the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2025 a mandatory EU animal welfare label is in force per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\nThe label must be multi-level and clearly distinguish between higher and lower standards. It must be required on all products for at least chickens, pigs, and cows and include information about the entire process of the method of production (rearing, transport, slaughter) . A label similar to prospective labels such as [Haltungsform](https://www.haltungsform.de/) (Germany), Lidl UK’s [method-of-production labelling](https://corporate.lidl.co.uk/sustainability/animal-welfare/mop-labelling) for poultry meat and the [Etiquette bien-être animal](http://www.etiquettebienetreanimal.fr/comprendre-letiquette/comment-lire-letiquette/) (France) can be used as a benchmark. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.46,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:43:15.703Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 64,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-11-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any bitcoins belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by April 5, 2075?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3733/satoshis-bitcoins-spent-by-2075/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to Satoshi's claimed birth date, it will have been 100 years since zir birth in 2075-04-05 (source: [Satoshi Nakamoto — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satoshi_Nakamoto)).\nWe don't know for sure which Bitcoins belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, but the addresses ze owns have been estimated in [The Well Deserved Fortune of Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin creator, Visionary and Genius](https://bitslog.com/2013/04/17/the-well-deserved-fortune-of-satoshi-nakamoto/) which amount to about 1 million Bitcoins (although another group argues that only ~60-70% of those are zirs: [Satoshi’s 1 Million Bitcoin Haul Could Be Smaller Than First Thought](https://news.bitcoin.com/satoshis-1-million-bitcoin-haul-could-be-smaller-than-first-thought/)). None of those Bitcoins have changed wallets since 2010. As of 2020-02-24, they are currently worth ~10 billion USD.\nWill any bitcoins belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by April 5, 2075? \nThis question will resolve positively if any bitcoin known to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto's original wallet addresses have been transferred, according to credible media reports.\nIf any of the coins are spent in a way that's widely known to have been a hack, this will not count. If Satoshi Nakamoto gave zir bitcoins to someone else who then spend them, this will qualify for resolution. Any transactions in any amount of bitcoin will qualify for resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:56:09.095Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 180,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-05-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Republicans win both the House and Senate in 2022 US midterm elections?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8971/republicans-win-house-and-senate-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\n--- \n[Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/)\nOn [elections scheduled for November 8, 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_elections), US voters will elect all 435 members to the House of Representatives and 34 out of 100 members of the Senate. As of December 22, 2021, Democrats hold 8 more seats than Republicans in the House (with 1 seat vacant), and have the narrowest majority in the Senate with 50 Senators in the Democratic caucus, with Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris to break 50-50 tied votes.\nDemocratic President Joe Biden [said at A DNC party on December 14, 2021](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2021/12/15/biden_to_republicans_get_ready_youre_in_for_a_problem_were_going_to_win_in_2022.html),\nI just mentioned that we’d reduce the cost for American families. We have to keep making the case. And if we do, I believe we’re going to win. Let me say this again for the press: We’re going to win in 2022. I really mean it. \nRepublican Senator Rick Scott [said to Fox Business on the same day](https://www.deseret.com/2021/11/19/22787494/republicans-chances-to-take-back-congress-in-2022-are-looking-good-utah-redistricting-gop),\nWe’re going to win [...] If your state was won by Joe Biden by less than 10 points, it’s a battleground state. We’re going to have races across the country.”\nGeneric congressional ballot data shows [Republicans with a 1.6 percentage point](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/) lead over Democrats on December 22, 2021. Biden currently has an [-8 percentage point net approval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/).\nFiveThirtyEight journalist Geoffrey Skelley has reported [a larger share of Democrats resigning from the House](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-flurry-of-democratic-departures-means-for-the-2022-house-race/), arguing this is a signal of good prospects of a Republican victory.\nWill Republicans win both the House and Senate in 2022 US midterm elections?\nThis question will resolve positively if, following the 2022 US congressional elections (and any following runoffs or recounts), over 50% of House and Senate congresspeople are members of the Republican party. If Democrats win either the House or the Senate, or both, this question will resolve negatively.\nIndependents or third-party congresspeople who are known to caucus with a specific party will be counted in that party's share of members. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T12:21:42.682Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 127,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-25T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-03T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If the 2024 US Presidential Election is Trump vs. Biden, will Trump win?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8483/trump-victory-if-biden-v-trump-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024. It will be the first presidential election after electoral votes are redistributed according to the post–2020 census reapportionment. Incumbent president Joe Biden [has stated that he intends to run for re-election to a second term](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/25/biden-run-reelection-2024-478008), although no official statements of candidacy have been filed as of November 3, 2021.\nFormer president Donald Trump has heavily hinted (see [numerous comments on this question](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/)) that he plans to seek the presidency in 2024, but has likewise not filed an official statement of candidacy as of November 3, 2021.\nAs of early November 2021, [President Biden's approval rating stands at approximately 43% according to FiveThirtyEight.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) This is the lowest level of approval yet seen in his presidency.\nIf the 2024 US Presidential Election is Trump vs. Biden, will Trump win?\nThis question asks whether, contingent on the 2024 US presidential election being a contest between Democratic nominee Joseph R. Biden and Republican nominee Donald J. Trump, will Donald J. Trump receive at least 270 votes in the electoral college, as certified by Congress in January 2025? If so, this question resolves positively. If the contest is Biden v Trump and Biden wins, this question resolves negatively. If the contest is not Biden v Trump, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:55:42.998Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 243,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-17T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-12T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7154/us-forgive-10k-student-debt-before-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "President Joe Biden of the United States has announced plans to forgive at least $10,000 in federal student loan debt per person. Some Democrats have called for $50,000 to be forgiven per person. He has asked for this to be done through Congress, but more recently he has also been considering directly taking executive action for loan cancellation. On April 1, he requested Education Secretary Miguel Cardona to write a memo exploring how much student debt the president is legally able to forgive.\nAs for the timeline of when student loan forgiveness may happen, CNBC's [\"$10,000 student loan forgiveness: Can Biden eliminate the debt?\" (May 1, 2021)](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/30/student-loan-forgiveness-may-be-on-the-way-what-to-do-in-the-meantime-.html) writes:\nIf Biden chooses to cancel the debt through executive action, in theory borrowers could see their balances reduced or eliminated pretty quickly. But such a move may be met by court challenges, which could lead to delays.\nA clearer picture may soon emerge.\n“If Biden decides he can do it via executive order, I expect we’ll hear about it by June or July,” said Betsy Mayotte, president of The Institute of Student Loan Advisors.\nIf the White House opts to leave student loan forgiveness to Congress, Democrats would likely use the budget reconciliation process to get it done.\nThat’s because that process allows them to pass legislation with a simple majority, which is all they have. Other bills typically must garner 60 votes to advance, thanks to Senate procedural rules. Republicans are largely hostile toward the idea of a student debt jubilee.\nThe next budget reconciliation process will likely be in the fall.\nExpert opinions on whether loan forgiveness will hapepn ([Time, April 29, 2021](https://time.com/nextadvisor/in-the-news/student-loan-forgiveness-predictions/)):\n“A blanket $10,000 in student loan forgiveness is good for individuals, but it’s bad policy unless they do something to fix the system,” says Robert Farrington, CEO and founder of The College Investor. “I personally don’t think anything will pass.”\n“I would like to see a higher education reform package if there is student loan forgiveness,” Farrington says. “If Biden tries to do it by executive order, I would not expect it happening right away. It’ll probably get tied up with lawsuits and litigation. However, if Congress manages to pass a bill that allows student loan forgiveness sometime this summer, then I think it would happen right away.”\n“I think the $10,000 in forgiveness is likely, but I’m cautious about anything more than that,” says Laurel Taylor, CEO and founder of [FutureFuel.io](http://FutureFuel.io). \nWill the US forgive $10,000 of federal debt per student before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if before January 1, 2024, a presidential executive order is signed or a Congressional bill is signed into law (or other legal means are used) that cancels at least $10,000 of US federal student loan debt for each person, and there is credible evidence that at least one student actually has received the promised debt cancellation from the bill or executive order before January 1, 2024.\nThe debt cancellation should apply to the vast majority of applicable people. There may be restrictions on who is eligible for loan forgiveness of $10,000, but these restrictions must not withhold debt cancellation from more than 10% of American citizens at least 21 years old with at least $1,000 of federal student debt. If it is unclear whether the restrictions are more strict or less strict than this, the moderators can use their discretion as to whether loan forgiveness applies to the vast majority of applicable people.\nIf the conditions above are not met, the question resolves negatively. For example, if the bill or executive order is declared unconstitutional before any student receives debt forgiveness, the question resolves negatively.\nRelated question: [https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5809/fede…](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5809/federal-loan-forgiveness/)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:05:06.083Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 123,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-07T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Boris Johnson remain British prime minister through February?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7708/Will-Boris-Johnson-remain-British-prime-minister-through-February",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Boris Johnson holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom without interruption until the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/28/2022 7:00 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.06000000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T13:07:39.590Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 150355
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1576/fewer-than-375m-in-extreme-poverty-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In September 2015, 193 world leaders adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and called for a “data revolution” to enhance accountability in measuring the progress towards their fulfilment. The SDGs have [17 goals](https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/poverty/) of which the first is “To end poverty in all its forms everywhere by 2030”.\nExtreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices. Currently, [around 630M people](https://worldpoverty.io/) (roughly 8%) live in extreme poverty worldwide. According to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&state$time$value=2006&delay:121.71612903225821;&entities$;&marker$select@;&opacitySelectDim:0.3&axis_x$use=indicator&which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&scaleType=log&zoomedMin=282&zoomedMax=119849&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&axis_y$use=indicator&which=extreme_poverty_percent_people_below_190_a_day&scaleType=linear&zoomedMin=0&zoomedMax=93&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&size$use=indicator&which=population_total&extent@:0.022083333333333333&:0.4083333333333333;&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&color$use=property&which=world_6region;;;&ui$chart$trails:false), extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, [there is evidence](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank) that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.\nA [2018 study by Cuaresma et al.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-018-0083-y.pdf) on the poverty paths of developing countries projects worldwide poverty rates ranging from 4.5% (around 375 million persons) to almost 6% (over 500 million persons) in 2030.\nWill we see fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than 375M in extreme poverty in any year up to (and including) 2030. For this question we will refer to the data by the World Bank, and if this is unavailable, some other database listed on the [data sources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/#data-sources).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:26:38.885Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 237,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-24T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-06-11T22:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2023, will the US officially rejoin the JCPOA?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2244-before-1-january-2023-will-the-us-officially-rejoin-the-jcpoa",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Obstacles standing in the way of the US rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current US sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium ([Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-iran-nuclear-deal), [Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty](https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-nuclear-talks-2022-options/31634579.html), [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-12/news/irans-nuclear-growth-puts-deal-risk), [Congressional Research Service](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46663)). The US rejoining the JCPOA under revised terms would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:01:05.699Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 121,
- "numforecasters": 74,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the USD be the dominant global reserve currency in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3858/usd-dominant-reserve-currency-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The IMF regularly publishes information on the composition of official global foreign exchange reserves in the aggregated Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves ([COFER](http://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4)). As of Q3 2019, the U.S dollar comprises 61.8% of the total ([source](http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=41175)).\nSeveral contributing factors are thought to contribute to this state of affairs, including [the stability, size, and liquidity of United States Treasury assets](https://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16064067&source=hptextfeature), the tying of other currencies to the U.S dollar as part of the Bretton Woods Agreement, and the strength of the U.S economy.\nAt present, the U.S dollar is considered to be the world's dominant reserve currency. This is considered to [diminish the impact of higher U.S trade deficits](https://qz.com/1266044/why-does-the-us-run-a-trade-deficit-to-maintain-the-dollars-privileged-position/) and [allowing it to impose unilateral sanctions](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/03/upshot/the-dollars-big-role-in-foreign-policy.html). However, it has been speculated that the U.S dollar may be supplanted by the euro or the renminbi, or may diminish in importance.\nWill the USD be the dominant global reserve currency in 2050?\nQuestion resolves positively if the most recently released percentage of allocated global foreign currency reserves comprising of the U.S dollar, by year-end 2050, is over 50%. Per moderator discretion, if the IMF has ceased publication of COFER in lieu of a new publication containing the same statistics, the new publication will be used instead.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous the IMF has not published any statistics for any quarters after Q1 2045, if admins judge that the IMF has ceased to exist.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:58:01.160Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 178,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2044-12-31T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T11:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n--- \nhow many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n--- \nwhat proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \nSee [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter.\nThis question conditions on there being a single nuclear conflict involving more than one hundred offensive nuclear detonations by 2100. That is, the question resolves ambiguously if that condition isn't met. (But this condition doesn't require that the first nuclear conflict after the question opening involves more than 100 detonations.) Detonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days or less of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nSee also\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8398/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\nIf there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?\nThe question resolves positively if: \n1-- \nthat condition is met by 2100-01-01, and\n2-- \nat least 3 credible sources state or estimate that, within 1 month of the final detonation as part of the first conflict that meets that condition, more than 1 million fatalities were caused by that conflict. \nIf a source gives a range as its estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used as its estimate.\nIf the nuclear conflict clearly causes more than 1 million fatalities but also causes sufficient civilizational collapse that there are no or extremely few remaining credible sources on anything, this question will also resolve positively. We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus score seems unlikely to be tracked or cared about in that scenario, because forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.\nFor simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess credible sources on what fatalities should be considered to be \"caused\" by the nuclear conflict.\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T11:53:07.455Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2061-04-14T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will average daily COVID-19 case numbers in Germany be above 175,000 for the week ending February 15, 2022?",
- "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/EUCOV-019",
- "platform": "Kalshi",
- "description": "If the average number of new COVID-19 cases in Germany in the period between in the period between February 09, 2022 and February 15, 2022 is greater than 175,000, then the contract resolves to Yes. Else, the contract resolves to No.\n\nThe market will close and expire at the sooner of 10:00 AM on the first day following the release of the data for February 15, 2022, or 10:00 AM on March 01, 2022.\nPlease see EUCOV in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.. The resolution source is: The number of new COVID-19 cases for each day in the period between February 09, 2022 and February 15, 2022 for Germany as reported by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) (undefined)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:07:32.782Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "yes_bid": 79,
- "yes_ask": 83,
- "spread": 4,
- "shares_volume": 3680
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and Ukraine resulting in at least three fatalities before 15 September 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2184-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-and-or-law-enforcement-of-russia-and-ukraine-resulting-in-at-least-three-fatalities-before-15-september-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Reports in the fall of 2021 indicated a build-up of Russian forces near the border of Ukraine amid increased tensions with the West ([Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/01/satellite-russia-ukraine-military-518337), [REF/RL](https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-ukrain-military-threat/31523260.html)). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and/or law enforcement of either side.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 8 November 2021: Cyberattacks would not count.\nNOTE 11 January 2022: The fatalities must be the result of the same lethal confrontation to count.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T09:03:07.708Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 762,
- "numforecasters": 222,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5178/doubling-value-company/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. When Apple first hit a capitalisation of $2tr, it was worth less than $1tr 365 days prior, resolving [the previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2638/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-2-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/) positively.\nWill the first publicly traded company to have a $4 trillion market cap be worth double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $2 trillion?\nThis resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $4 trillion (adjusted to 2018 prices), AND it was worth less than or equal to $2 trillion one year before (also in 2018 prices). The question will refer to Yahoo Finance's data, or any other reputable financial data service. Qualifying companies are restricted to companies that were publicly traded over the whole year when their valuation doubled.\nCurrent quarter's prices are to be adjusted to mean 2018 prices using FRED's [GDP implicit price deflator](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USAGDPDEFQISMEI). If the company is not traded in the US, prices given in the currency in which the stocks are traded are to be converted using the arithmetic mean of FRED's [real broad effective exchange rate](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/tags/series?t=currency%3Bexchange%20rate%3Breal&ob=pv&od=desc) of the current quarter.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:18:31.107Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 108,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-16T17:17:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-06-16T17:17:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Iran has currently been [accused of violating](https://apnews.com/452a336123d742718027f219f6dd256f) the JCPOA (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and seeks to build nuclear arms. \nWill Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?\nQuestion will resolve with the Iranian Regime credibly stating it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nFor the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do trigger positive resolution.\nPurchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as \"Yes\". \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-10T10:19:39.525Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 537,
- "stars": 3
- },
- "extra": {
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-20T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-30T21:37:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Russia annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8786/russian-annexation-in-the-baltics/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the continued involvement in the Ukraine conflict in the Donbass region, Russia and NATO have put distinct focus on the Baltics (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia) as [a further potential point of conflict](https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/03/28/preventing-escalation-in-baltics-introduction-pub-75879). One result of the