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{


"title": "Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwaneseoccupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?",


"url": "https://www.csetforetell.com/questions/125willthechinesepeoplesliberationarmyplaseizecontrolofanytaiwaneseoccupiedfeaturesinthesouthchinaseabeforejuly12021",


"platform": "CSETforetell",


"description": "Context. Tensions between Taiwan and China have been particularly high in 2020 (CFR, BBC). China had previously aimed for peaceful reunification with Taiwan. In May 2020, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang dropped the term “peaceful” from a speech, apparently reflecting shifting policies on the island (Reuters). Throughout 2020, China has stepped up activities in the East and South China Sea (Al Jazeera, IISS) with some media reporting of an imminent invasion of Taiwan (Express, Forbes). In the Annual Report to Congress, the the Office of the Secretary of Defence state that an invasion of Taiwan would be a “significant political and military risk” but “China could launch an invasion of small Taiwanoccupied islands in the South China Sea such as Pratas or Itu Aba” (Department of Defense). In August 2020, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted military exercises off the Pratas islands to “simulate seizing the Pratas Islands” (Taipei Times). Foreign Policy assessed an invasion of Taiwan by China was unlikely, while The Diplomat suggests China’s military activity represents the end state of a failed strategy, not an imminent attack. Taiwan’s current features include the Pratas Islands and Itu Aba Island (CSIS). The control of a feature in the South China Sea would indicate a serious escalation within the region which will be of interest to the international community. The July 1 2021 represents the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Resolution details. The outcome of this question will be determined by reputable media reporting or official statements. Seizing would involve an invasion, conquest, and control of a feature by Chinese military forces, lasting more than 24 hours. The question will resolve once control has been held for 24 hours, irrespective of how long that control is maintained after that period. ***\n",


"options": [


{


"name": "Yes",


"probability": 0.05,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "No",


"probability": 0.95,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


}


],


"timestamp": "20210408T09:47:14.639Z",


"qualityindicators": {


"numforecasts": "85",


"numforecasters": "73",


"stars": 2


}


},


{


"title": "Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021?",


"url": "https://www.csetforetell.com/questions/126willchinasignanofficialagreementonestablishingafuturemilitarybaseinthepacificoceanbeforedecember312021",


"platform": "CSETforetell",


"description": "Context. Chinese military basing in the Pacific has been an acute concern for US, Australian and New Zealand military planners for some time. China has made political and economic inroads into the Pacific islands for years and recent ‘covid diplomacy’ has generated new political capital (Eurasian Times). China came close in 2018 as it discussed codeveloping four major ports and eventually a military base in Papua New Guinea, including at Lombrum Naval Base on Manus Island. There was also speculation of a proposed military base on Vanuatu (Reuters), which China denied (Guardian).The signing of an official agreement between one of more Pacific nations would be seen as a significant development in this area, which would be of interest to many teams.Resolution details. The outcome of this question will be determined on any official announcement or reputable media reporting that an agreement has been reached to establish a Chinese military base in the Pacific Ocean.\n",


"options": [


{


"name": "Yes",


"probability": 0.2,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "No",


"probability": 0.8,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


}


],


"timestamp": "20210408T09:47:17.431Z",


"qualityindicators": {


"numforecasts": "52",


"numforecasters": "46",


"stars": 2


}


},


{


"title": "What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?",


"url": "https://www.csetforetell.com/questions/123whatpercentageofsoftwareengineerjobpostingsbetweenjuly1andseptember302021inclusivewillallowforremotework",


"platform": "CSETforetell",


"description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3. You can view those forecasts here. A version of the question issued for 2021 Q1 was voided due to an error in the reported historical data. You can view the voided question here.Context. COVID19 is reshaping the global economy by leading to an increase in jobs that can be performed remotely. A remote tech industry would have different properties than a nonremote tech industry. Most significantly, location would be a less of a constraint on where people work and who companies hire. For more on this metric, see the related metric analysis: \"Tech Jobs Are Going Remote; UK Leads the Way.\"Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Burning Glass data available as of October 1, 2021. It includes all countries for which Burning Glass has data: the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore.The data for 2021 Q1 includes data only through March 9. We will update the graph to reflect the final three weeks of 2021 Q1 in early April. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today\n",


"options": [


{


"name": "Less than 5.5%",


"probability": 0.11320000000000001,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%",


"probability": 0.1975,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive",


"probability": 0.2779,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive",


"probability": 0.1925,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than 12%",


"probability": 0.2189,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


}


],


"timestamp": "20210408T09:47:20.424Z",


"qualityindicators": {


"numforecasts": "97",


"numforecasters": "82",


"stars": 2


}


},


{


"title": "Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?",


"url": "https://www.csetforetell.com/questions/122willhuchunhuabeamemberofthestandingcommitteeofthepolitburoofthechinesecommunistpartyscentralcommitteeondecember312022",


"platform": "CSETforetell",


"description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25member Politburo of its ~370member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the postMao era. Xi Jinping, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and topranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a normdefying third term as General Secretary in 2022. But given the opaque nature of intraParty negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a 20yearold norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from the current Politburo.Hu Chunhua has been seen for many years as a rising star in Chinese politics. He serves on the Politburo as one of four Vice Premiers of the State Council, the administrative leadership group of the Chinese central government. He is the youngest Politburo member (he will turn 59 in 2022) and is the only Vice Premier not due to retire in 2022. The current Premier (and numbertwo ranked PBSC member), Li Keqiang, is constitutionally barred from serving another term, and, since the late 1980s, a new Premier has always been selected from among the serving Vice Premiers. Hu could secure a place on the next PBSC as the next Premier. But Xi’s personalized power and preference for elevating political allies has cast doubt on the persistence of previous norms. Hu is not seen as close to Xi, and his political rise is linked to the oncepowerful but nowweakened Communist Youth League faction. Xi may want to block Hu’s ascension to the PBSC or be accepting of Hu taking a PBSC position below that of Premier. If Hu became Premier, it could be a signal that Xi faces intraParty checks on his power.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n",


"options": [


{


"name": "Yes",


"probability": 0.71,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "No",


"probability": 0.29,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


}


],


"timestamp": "20210408T09:47:23.231Z",


"qualityindicators": {


"numforecasts": "26",


"numforecasters": "23",


"stars": 2


}


},


{


"title": "Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?",


"url": "https://www.csetforetell.com/questions/120willlikeqiangbeamemberofthestandingcommitteeofthepolitburoofthechinesecommunistpartyscentralcommitteeondecember312022",


"platform": "CSETforetell",


"description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25member Politburo of its ~370member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the postMao era. Li Keqiang has been the secondranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and has served as Premier of the State Council since March 2013. He is ranked behind paramount leader Xi Jinping, who serves as the Party’s General Secretary and is President of China and Chairman of the Central Military Commission.During the 1990s and 2000s, Li and Xi were both rising stars. Xi was from an elite political family and gained the favor of former leader Jiang Zemin, while Li’s base was the nowweakened Communist Youth League that nurtured Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao. Xi proved more popular with Party elites but factional balancing within the Party saw Li win the numbertwo position. Li is constitutionally barred from serving another fiveyear term as Premier. But he will only be 67 years old in 2022, and so will fall within the customary upper age bound of 67 for appointment to a new PBSC term. Given that it’s uncommon for such a senior leader to retire early, it's possible that Li will remain on the PBSC but take a different role.Xi is expected to secure a normdefying third term as General Secretary in 2022. If Li retires, it will be another sign of Xi’s consolidation of personalized political power, which has come at the expense of other factional networks within the Party. If Li remains on the PBSC, it could be a sign that other power groupings exist that are influential enough to at least require some degree of placation by Xi, or that Xi still feels at least partially constrained by factional norms.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n",


"options": [


{


"name": "Yes",


"probability": 0.53,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "No",


"probability": 0.47,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


}


],


"timestamp": "20210408T09:47:25.848Z",


"qualityindicators": {


"numforecasts": "23",


"numforecasters": "19",


"stars": 2


}


},


{


"title": "Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?",


"url": "https://www.csetforetell.com/questions/121willchenminerbeamemberofthestandingcommitteeofthepolitburoofthechinesecommunistpartyscentralcommitteeondecember312022",


"platform": "CSETforetell",


"description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25member Politburo of its ~370member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the postMao era. Xi Jinping, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and topranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a normdefying third term as General Secretary in 2022. But given the opaque nature of intraParty negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a 20yearold norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from the current Politburo.Chen Min’er is tipped by some analysts as a major figure in the next generation of Chinese political leaders. He turns 62 in 2022 and so will be young enough to serve two PBSC terms under prevailing norms. He sits on the Politburo as Party Secretary of Chongqing, a position that was a launching pad for many former PBSC leaders. And he is seen as a protégé of Xi (who often promotes people he knows personally), having worked as director of the provincial propaganda department when Xi was Zhejiang Party Secretary from 20022007. But Chen will have to compete with other hopefuls and avoid any impression that he poses a threat to Xi’s authority.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n",


"options": [


{


"name": "Yes",


"probability": 0.82,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "No",


"probability": 0.18,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


}


],


"timestamp": "20210408T09:47:28.960Z",


"qualityindicators": {


"numforecasts": "20",


"numforecasters": "18",


"stars": 2


}


},


{


"title": "How many new H1B visa applications submitted by the \"Big 5\" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?",


"url": "https://www.csetforetell.com/questions/118howmanynewh1bvisaapplicationssubmittedbythebig5techcompanieswilltheusgrantinfiscalyear2022",


"platform": "CSETforetell",


"description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. The mean crowd forecast for that question is 8,122. You can view those forecasts here.Context. H1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants. It's also a common immigration pathway for AIskilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on \"initial approvals\" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2021. The fiscal year is October 1 through September 30. The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The \"Big 5\" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The H1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big5 tech companies, they'll see H1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gearshaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",


"options": [


{


"name": "Less than 7,500",


"probability": 0.0418,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive",


"probability": 0.1286,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500",


"probability": 0.3054,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500",


"probability": 0.30820000000000003,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than 13,500",


"probability": 0.2161,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


}


],


"timestamp": "20210408T09:47:31.766Z",


"qualityindicators": {


"numforecasts": "49",


"numforecasters": "40",


"stars": 2


}


},


{


"title": "How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",


"url": "https://www.csetforetell.com/questions/116howmanypostingsforusjobsrequiringmachinelearningskillswillbepublishedbetweenjuly1anddecember312021inclusive",


"platform": "CSETforetell",


"description": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3 and 2021 Q1. You can view those forecasts here and here. For 2020 Q3, the answer was 39,364 and the median crowd forecast was 37,271. We will add the resolution for the 2021 Q1 question as soon as the data is available. Context. Job postings reflect the priorities and expectations of employers. They provide hints about future research and development. Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Burning Glass Technologies. The date of a job posting is the date Burning Glass retrieves the data. The question resolves when CSET receives Burning Glass data through December 31, 2021. Through February 2021, 34,663 U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills were posted, which puts the first half of 2021 on pace for 106,328 job postings. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: The Impact of COVID19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gearshaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",


"options": [


{


"name": "Less than 70,000",


"probability": 0.1252,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive",


"probability": 0.33140000000000003,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000",


"probability": 0.3232,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000",


"probability": 0.16579999999999998,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than 130,000",


"probability": 0.054400000000000004,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


}


],


"timestamp": "20210408T09:47:34.995Z",


"qualityindicators": {


"numforecasts": "89",


"numforecasters": "73",


"stars": 2


}


},


{


"title": "What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?",


"url": "https://www.csetforetell.com/questions/117whatwilltotalustradevolumewithchinaimportsandexportsofgoodsbein2022",


"platform": "CSETforetell",


"description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 and 2021. The crowd's mean forecast for 2020 was $506 billion, and the correct answer was $560.1 billion. The crowd's mean forecast for 2021 is $524 billion. You can view those forecasts here and here. Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID19 pandemic has further reduced trade. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gearshaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",


"options": [


{


"name": "Less than $400 billion",


"probability": 0.0729,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive",


"probability": 0.16760000000000003,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion",


"probability": 0.5379999999999999,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion",


"probability": 0.2029,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than $775 billion",


"probability": 0.018600000000000002,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


}


],


"timestamp": "20210408T09:47:38.073Z",


"qualityindicators": {


"numforecasts": "36",


"numforecasters": "30",


"stars": 2


}


},


{


"title": "What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?",


"url": "https://www.csetforetell.com/questions/114whatwillthecombinedrevenueofalphabetamazonapplefacebookandmicrosoftbeinthesecondhalfof2021",


"platform": "CSETforetell",


"description": "Previous version. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The median forecast for the first half of 2021 was $557 billion. Although that question has not yet resolved, based on data for the second half of 2020  $631 billion  big tech revenue appears to be increasing ahead of the crowd's predictions. You can view those forecasts here.Context. Even as the economic crisis deepened, large tech companies have have demonstrated resilience, beating Wall Street Analysts’ expectations. Data and Resolution Details. This question resolves based on the 10Q filings of Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., and Microsoft Inc. It resolves when these companies’ 10Q filings for the fourth quarter of 2021 are publicly available. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today \n",


"options": [


{


"name": "Less than $470 billion",


"probability": 0.050199999999999995,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive",


"probability": 0.133,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion",


"probability": 0.245,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion",


"probability": 0.31420000000000003,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than $680 billion",


"probability": 0.2576,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


}


],


"timestamp": "20210408T09:49:59.269Z",


"qualityindicators": {


"numforecasts": "84",


"numforecasters": "72",


"stars": 2


}


},


{


"title": "Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",


"url": "https://www.csetforetell.com/questions/113willthechinesemilitaryorothermaritimesecurityforcesfireuponanothercountryscivilormilitaryvesselinthesouthchinaseabetweenjuly1anddecember312021inclusive",


"platform": "CSETforetell",


"description": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The final crowd forecast was 11%. The probability generally declined during the period the question was open. You can view that question and the results here. A variation on this question was also issued for Summer 2020. You can view that question and the results here. Context. The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. \"Fires upon\" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming.***This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World \n",


"options": [


{


"name": "Yes",


"probability": 0.19,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "No",


"probability": 0.81,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


}


],


"timestamp": "20210408T09:50:02.644Z",


"qualityindicators": {


"numforecasts": "144",


"numforecasters": "109",


"stars": 3


}


},


{


"title": "Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?",


"url": "https://www.csetforetell.com/questions/115willxijingpingbegeneralsecretaryofthechinesecommunistpartyscentralcommitteeondecember312022",


"platform": "CSETforetell",


"description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party will elect a new 370member Central Committee at its next quinquennial National Congress, likely in October or November 2022. Immediately after this Party Congress, the new 20th Central Committee will hold a plenary meeting that selects the Party’s General Secretary for the incoming fiveyear term.The General Secretary chairs the Central Committee’s top 25member Politburo and the Politburo’s elite sevenmember Standing Committee. Since the early 1990s, the General Secretary has concurrently served as President of the People’s Republic of China and Chairperson of the Central Military Commission. The General Secretary is thus the “paramount leader” of the three sectors of regime power: the Party, the State, and the People’s Liberation Army.Xi Jinping became General Secretary after the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and was reselected for a second term at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. When Xi began his tenure the expectation both within the Party and among domestic and international observes of China was that he would follow the succession norm set by his predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin of stepping down as leader after serving two full fiveyear terms.But since coming to power, Xi has reversed the Party’s previous trend toward “collective leadership” and become the powerful “core leader” of a far more personalized political setup. Xi has crippled rival power centers in the Party, elevated close associates to key leadership positions, centralized policymaking authority in “leading small groups” that he chairs, and asserted unparalleled authority over the armed forces and security services. These developments have led many observers to argue that Xi will secure a normdefying third term as General Secretary at the 20th Party Congress. In March 2018, China’s legislature amended the State Constitution to delete a twoterm limit for Presidents of the People’s Republic, removing the only formal barrier to Xi serving as paramount leader indefinitely.Other analysts warn that Xi’s position is more precarious because of the backlash generated by policies that target rival elites, suppress civil society, and potentially slow China’s growth. Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would also have to win exemption from a 20yearold norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. The next General Secretary should be announced in the communique of the First Plenary Meeting of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, likely in October or November 2022.***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n",


"options": [


{


"name": "Yes",


"probability": 0.89,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "No",


"probability": 0.11,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


}


],


"timestamp": "20210408T09:50:04.965Z",


"qualityindicators": {


"numforecasts": "195",


"numforecasters": "135",


"stars": 3


}


},


{


"title": "How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",


"url": "https://www.csetforetell.com/questions/111howmuchfundingwillprivateustechcompaniesraisebetweenjuly1anddecember312021inclusive",


"platform": "CSETforetell",


"description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is \"private\" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question  and the graph below  therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: \"Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?\"\n",


"options": [


{


"name": "Less than $40 billion",


"probability": 0.0528,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive",


"probability": 0.2522,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion",


"probability": 0.4056,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion",


"probability": 0.21719999999999998,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than $100 billion",


"probability": 0.0722,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


}


],


"timestamp": "20210408T09:50:08.571Z",


"qualityindicators": {


"numforecasts": "57",


"numforecasters": "46",


"stars": 2


}


},


{


"title": "How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",


"url": "https://www.csetforetell.com/questions/110howmuchfundingwillustechstartupsraisebetweenjuly1anddecember312021inclusive",


"platform": "CSETforetell",


"description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: preseed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question  and the graph below  therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: \"Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?\"\n",


"options": [


{


"name": "Less than $13 billion",


"probability": 0.0332,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive",


"probability": 0.1223,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion",


"probability": 0.42450000000000004,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion",


"probability": 0.32030000000000003,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than $25 billion",


"probability": 0.09970000000000001,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


}


],


"timestamp": "20210408T09:50:11.711Z",


"qualityindicators": {


"numforecasts": "59",


"numforecasters": "45",


"stars": 2


}


},


{


"title": "What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 20212022?",


"url": "https://www.csetforetell.com/questions/109conditionalonpresidenttrumpnotbeingconvictedofincitementofinsurrectionwhatwillthesenatesaveragebipartisanindexscorebefrom20212022",


"platform": "CSETforetell",


"description": "Related question. This question was previously issued conditional on Trump not being convicted. A sister question was conditioned on Trump being convicted. After Trump was not convicted, we voided the sister question and removed the condition from this question. As of the Senate's vote on conviction, the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump's conviction was 0.1244; the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump not being convicted  this question  was 0.0718. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for \"incitement of insurrection,\" setting up a trial in the Senate. If twothirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and cosponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a \"Trump Effect\" in which \"the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump.\" \n",


"options": [


{


"name": "Less than 0.25",


"probability": 0.19329999999999997,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "Between 0.25 and 0, inclusive",


"probability": 0.3189,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25",


"probability": 0.29960000000000003,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5",


"probability": 0.1467,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than 0.5",


"probability": 0.0414,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


}


],


"timestamp": "20210408T09:50:15.073Z",


"qualityindicators": {


"numforecasts": "150",


"numforecasters": "111",


"stars": 3


}


},


{


"title": "How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",


"url": "https://www.csetforetell.com/questions/106howmuchwilltheusdepartmentofdefensespendonairesearchcontractsbetweenjuly1anddecember312021inclusive",


"platform": "CSETforetell",


"description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&amp;E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&amp;E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&amp;E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an \"AI contract\" if BGOV classified it in the \"Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning\" market. It's a \"research\" contract if it has a \"Research and Development\" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gearshaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",


"options": [


{


"name": "Less than $200 million",


"probability": 0.0506,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive",


"probability": 0.19329999999999997,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million",


"probability": 0.35350000000000004,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million",


"probability": 0.254,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than $650 million",


"probability": 0.14859999999999998,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


}


],


"timestamp": "20210408T09:50:17.888Z",


"qualityindicators": {


"numforecasts": "115",


"numforecasters": "92",


"stars": 3


}


},


{


"title": "How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",


"url": "https://www.csetforetell.com/questions/107howmuchwilltheusdepartmentofdefensespendonaigrantsbetweenjuly1anddecember312021inclusive",


"platform": "CSETforetell",


"description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an \"AI grant\" if the abstract mentions either \"artificial intelligence\" or \"machine learning.\" The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gearshaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",


"options": [


{


"name": "Less than $30 million",


"probability": 0.0492,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive",


"probability": 0.3036,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million",


"probability": 0.3403,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million",


"probability": 0.2051,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than $150 million",


"probability": 0.1018,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


}


],


"timestamp": "20210408T09:50:20.697Z",


"qualityindicators": {


"numforecasts": "144",


"numforecasters": "114",


"stars": 3


}


},


{


"title": "How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",


"url": "https://www.csetforetell.com/questions/103howmanyaipaperswillbepostedonarxivbetweenjuly1anddecember312021inclusive",


"platform": "CSETforetell",


"description": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an openaccess repository for preprint papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an \"AI\" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gearshaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",


"options": [


{


"name": "Less than 26,000",


"probability": 0.031,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive",


"probability": 0.0981,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000",


"probability": 0.2158,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000",


"probability": 0.3145,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than 32,000",


"probability": 0.3406,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


}


],


"timestamp": "20210408T09:50:23.822Z",


"qualityindicators": {


"numforecasts": "73",


"numforecasters": "45",


"stars": 2


}


},


{


"title": "How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?",


"url": "https://www.csetforetell.com/questions/105howmanymemberswillthealphabetworkersunionhavebydecember312021",


"platform": "CSETforetell",


"description": "Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, \"Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol.\"The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a \"bargaining unit\" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, \"workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract.\" Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. ***\n",


"options": [


{


"name": "Less than 800",


"probability": 0.1282,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "Between 800 and 4,000",


"probability": 0.4506,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000",


"probability": 0.2904,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000",


"probability": 0.1013,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than 100,000",


"probability": 0.0296,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


}


],


"timestamp": "20210408T09:50:27.167Z",


"qualityindicators": {


"numforecasts": "157",


"numforecasters": "103",


"stars": 3


}


},


{


"title": "What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",


"url": "https://www.csetforetell.com/questions/104whatpercentageofusnewsarticlesaboutaiwillbeaboutprivacyandsecuritybetweenjuly1anddecember312021inclusive",


"platform": "CSETforetell",


"description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term \"artificial intelligence\"; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms \"privacy\" and \"security.\" The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today \n",


"options": [


{


"name": "Less than 0.45%",


"probability": 0.0484,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive",


"probability": 0.1732,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%",


"probability": 0.2768,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%",


"probability": 0.2242,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than 1.2%",


"probability": 0.2774,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


}


],


"timestamp": "20210408T09:50:37.154Z",


"qualityindicators": {


"numforecasts": "67",


"numforecasters": "55",


"stars": 2


}


},


{


"title": "Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?",


"url": "https://www.csetforetell.com/questions/102willnvidiaacquirearmbymarch302022",


"platform": "CSETforetell",


"description": "Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that \"China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones.\"The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.***\n",


"options": [


{


"name": "Yes",


"probability": 0.43,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "No",


"probability": 0.57,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


}


],


"timestamp": "20210408T09:50:40.350Z",


"qualityindicators": {


"numforecasts": "153",


"numforecasters": "90",


"stars": 3


}


},


{


"title": "What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?",


"url": "https://www.csetforetell.com/questions/100whatpercentageofthecollectiverevenueoftheleadingsemiconductormanufacturingequipmentproducerswillcomefromchinabetweenjuly12020andjune302021inclusive",


"platform": "CSETforetell",


"description": "Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME)  i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. The top five SME companies globally are: United States: Applied Materials; Lam Research; KLA Japan: Tokyo Electron Netherlands: ASML Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the companies' quarterly and annual public filings through the quarter ending December 31, 2021. At that date, we expect to have data for all five companies through all of 2021 with the exception that we'll have data for KLA only through June 30, 2020. As of December 3, 2020, the figure for 2020 in the graph below includes the following: Lam Research through September 30, 2020; Applied Materials through September 30, 2020; KLA through June 30, 2020; and Tokyo Electron through September 30, 2020. We will supplement the graph with additional 2020 data as it becomes available. In particular, ASML data for all of 2020 will be added after ASML submits its annual financial report covering the period through December 31, 2020.The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.\n",


"options": [


{


"name": "Less than 20%",


"probability": 0.08800000000000001,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "Between 20% and 25%, inclusive",


"probability": 0.1698,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%",


"probability": 0.3705,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%",


"probability": 0.25780000000000003,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than 35%",


"probability": 0.1139,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


}


],


"timestamp": "20210408T09:50:43.474Z",


"qualityindicators": {


"numforecasts": "75",


"numforecasters": "59",


"stars": 2


}


},


{


"title": "Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?",


"url": "https://www.csetforetell.com/questions/99willtheunitedstatesreenterthe2015nucleardealwithiranbydecember312021",


"platform": "CSETforetell",


"description": "Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the \"lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy.\" In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, PresidentElect Biden stated that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for followon negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly \"pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration.\" The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. ***\n",


"options": [


{


"name": "Yes",


"probability": 0.56,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "No",


"probability": 0.44,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


}


],


"timestamp": "20210408T09:50:46.450Z",


"qualityindicators": {


"numforecasts": "365",


"numforecasters": "198",


"stars": 3


}


},


{


"title": "When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?",


"url": "https://www.csetforetell.com/questions/97whenwillantfinancialhaveanipoinchinaorhongkong",


"platform": "CSETforetell",


"description": "Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app  one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms  to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, cofounder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s stateowned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer \"after November 17, 2021.\" In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. ***\n",


"options": [


{


"name": "Before February 17, 2021",


"probability": 0.0223,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive",


"probability": 0.0738,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021",


"probability": 0.21559999999999999,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "After November 17, 2021",


"probability": 0.6883,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


}


],


"timestamp": "20210408T09:50:49.230Z",


"qualityindicators": {


"numforecasts": "249",


"numforecasters": "137",


"stars": 3


}


},


{


"title": "What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?",


"url": "https://www.csetforetell.com/questions/91conditionalonvicepresidentbidenselectionwhatpercentageofusresidentswillhaveanunfavorableviewofchinaasreflectedinthe2022pewglobalattitudessurvey",


"platform": "CSETforetell",


"description": "Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's reelection. You can view it here. We previously asked a nonconditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a JuneJuly 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in JuneJuly. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gearshaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",


"options": [


{


"name": "Less than 59%",


"probability": 0.12369999999999999,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "Between 59% and 66%, inclusive",


"probability": 0.1791,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%",


"probability": 0.2658,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%",


"probability": 0.2939,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than 80%",


"probability": 0.1376,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


}


],


"timestamp": "20210408T09:50:52.528Z",


"qualityindicators": {


"numforecasts": "239",


"numforecasters": "169",


"stars": 3


}


},


{


"title": "Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?",


"url": "https://www.csetforetell.com/questions/89conditionalonvicepresidentbidenselectionwilltheusgovernmentfileanantitrustlawsuitagainstappleamazonorfacebookbetweenjanuary202021andjanuary192025",


"platform": "CSETforetell",


"description": "Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's reelection. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anticompetitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a longawaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today\n",


"options": [


{


"name": "Yes",


"probability": 0.74,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "No",


"probability": 0.26,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


}


],


"timestamp": "20210408T09:50:55.172Z",


"qualityindicators": {


"numforecasts": "201",


"numforecasters": "133",


"stars": 3


}


},


{


"title": "What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?",


"url": "https://www.csetforetell.com/questions/45whatpercentofuscorporatepressreleasesaboutaiwillbeaboutaiethicsin2021",


"platform": "CSETforetell",


"description": "Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term \"artificial intelligence\" of \"machine learning\"; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either \"ethics,\" \"bias,\" fairness,\" or any variant of those terms. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID19 on the ML Research Field\n",


"options": [


{


"name": "Less than 1.5%",


"probability": 0.067,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive",


"probability": 0.1356,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%",


"probability": 0.2113,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%",


"probability": 0.2891,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


},


{


"name": "More than 6%",


"probability": 0.29710000000000003,


"type": "PROBABILITY"


}


],


"timestamp": "20210408T09:50:58.224Z",


"qualityindicators": {


"numforecasts": "222",


"numforecasters": "140",


"stars": 3


}


}


]

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@ 1,353 +0,0 @@


"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"


"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2050%20prediction%20questions%20embedded%20in%20LessWrong%20posts%20and%20comments%20this%20month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5648011363636364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4351988636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",352,143,1


"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8205128205128206,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1794871794871794,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",234,126,1


"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3674375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6325625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",160,104,1


"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20without%20additional%20intervention%20from%20the%20existing%20AI%20Alignment%20research%20community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5289130434782608,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47108695652173915,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",138,96,1


"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the leadup to AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20arms%20race%20dynamic%20in%20the%20leadup%20to%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.757280701754386,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.242719298245614,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",114,92,1


"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new%20English%20Strain%20is%20at%20least%2050%%20more%20infectious%20than%20the%20currently%20dominant%20American%20strain%20of%20Covid19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6333177570093458,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3666822429906542,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",214,91,1


"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20single%20AGI%20or%20AGI%20project%20achieve%20a%20decisive%20strategic%20advantage?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6183620689655173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38163793103448274,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",116,87,1


"How vivid is your visual imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5068067226890757,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4931932773109243,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",119,77,1


"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4249074074074074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5750925925925926,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",108,77,1


"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",110,77,1


"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20we%20build%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11789999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8821,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",100,75,1


"How vivid is your sound imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20sound%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6116981132075472,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3883018867924528,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",106,74,1


"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20another%20AI%20Winter%20(a%20period%20commonly%20referred%20to%20as%20such)%20before%20we%20develop%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2895876288659794,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7104123711340207,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",97,73,1


"Will we get AGI from 13 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%2013%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4311607142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5688392857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",112,71,1


"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid19 infections in the United States 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20an%20additional%20distinct%20large%20wave%20of%20Covid19%20infections%20in%20the%20United%20States%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5817721518987341,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4182278481012659,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",158,70,1


"How vivid is your taste imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20taste%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25726190476190475,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7427380952380953,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",84,69,1


"How vivid is your smell imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20smell%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25414634146341464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7458536585365854,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",82,68,1


"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20need%20>%203%20breakthroughs%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning%20to%20get%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2538095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7461904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",84,67,1


"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1975862068965517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8024137931034483,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",87,66,1


"How frequently do you think in words?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7812790697674419,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21872093023255812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",86,66,1


"Do you have an internal monologue?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8227500000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1772499999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",80,63,1


"How good is your memory?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5229113924050633,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47708860759493665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",79,63,1


"How vivid is your touch imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3612658227848101,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6387341772151899,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",79,62,1


"How much control do you have over your mind?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20much%20control%20do%20you%20have%20over%20your%20mind?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45592105263157895,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5440789473684211,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",76,61,1


"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42764705882352944,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5723529411764705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",85,57,1


"Trump will win a second term","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20win%20a%20second%20term&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.462027027027027,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.537972972972973,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",74,54,1


"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3156060606060606,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6843939393939393,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",66,52,1


"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24506666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7549333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",75,52,1


"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20""Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong""%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8951807228915662,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10481927710843375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",83,45,1


"The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects (i.e. besides stuffy nose for a day) for >50% of people who try it","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20(i.e.%20besides%20stuffy%20nose%20for%20a%20day)%20for%20>50%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0548,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9452,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",75,41,1


"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Having%20a%20button/prompt%20for%20Elicit%20on%20LW%20would%20increase%20usage%20by%20at%20least%205x&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6021951219512195,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3978048780487805,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",41,37,1


"The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects for >1% of people who try it ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20for%20>1%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20215384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7978461538461539,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",65,36,1


"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025%20bitcoin%20will%20no%20longer%20be%20the%20highest%20traded%20cryptocurrency.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5548648648648649,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44513513513513514,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",37,35,1


"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6111904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3888095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",42,33,1


"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity%20will%20not%20occur%20by%20the%20year%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.687142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31285714285714294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",42,34,1


"The radvac vaccine works. That is, it immunizes against COVID, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunizes%20against%20COVID,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28800000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.712,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",50,33,1


"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025,%20most%20of%20Russia%20will%20become%20part%20of%20the%20United%20States,%20or%20the%20reverse,%20or%20they%20will%20in%20some%20other%20manner%20become%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state,%20or%20part%20of%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.007941176470588234,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9920588235294118,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",34,32,1


"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36911764705882355,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6308823529411764,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",34,29,1


"The Pope will be assassinated.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope%20will%20be%20assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0303125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9696875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",32,30,1


"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47382978723404257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5261702127659574,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",47,28,1


"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",34,28,1


"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38967741935483874,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6103225806451613,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",31,29,1


"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",40,29,1


"""There will only be three languages in the world  English, Spanish and Mandarin"" Bill Walker, BBC","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin""%20Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9709090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",33,29,1


"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 20210701?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%2020210701?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5493617021276596,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45063829787234044,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",47,28,1


"No military draft in the United States before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9027272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09727272727272729,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",33,28,1


"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08806451612903227,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9119354838709677,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",31,28,1


"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17874999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",32,28,1


"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08678571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9132142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",28,27,1


"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.002307692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9976923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,26,1


"...be an environmental disaster.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2479310344827586,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7520689655172415,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",29,26,1


"In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8062264150943396,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19377358490566043,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",53,26,1


"Trump wins Nobel","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10552631578947368,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8944736842105263,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",38,26,1


"California will secede from the United States before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.006764705882352942,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9932352941176471,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",34,26,1


"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4023809523809524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5976190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",42,26,1


"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.018846153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9811538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,25,1


"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4684375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5315624999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",32,24,1


"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5855882352941176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41441176470588237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",34,23,1


"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07461538461538461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9253846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,23,1


"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09692307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9030769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,23,1


"The Singularity will occur by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35119999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6488,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,23,1


"50% chance of AI by 2028 Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2439285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7560714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",28,23,1


"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",24,22,1


"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today  5/31/2023  with this individual prediction still accessible.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20%205/31/2023%20%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31120000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,22,1


"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6226923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37730769230769234,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,22,1


"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20""Inverse%20AlphaFold""%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33909090909090905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6609090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",33,22,1


"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8411111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15888888888888886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",27,22,1


"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19347826086956524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8065217391304348,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",23,22,1


"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a nonprediction question by 28112020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20nonprediction%20question%20by%2028112020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5815384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",39,21,1


"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7363999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,21,1


"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6084375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39156250000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",32,21,1


"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13119999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8688,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,21,1


"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3745833333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6254166666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",24,21,1


"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20482758620689656,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7951724137931034,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",29,21,1


"For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2885185185185185,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7114814814814815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",27,21,1


"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7019047619047619,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2980952380952381,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,21,1


"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.994090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.005909090909090975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,21,1


"Another version: roughly, everything that tophumans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20tophumans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2782857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7217142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",35,20,1


"The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3109375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6890625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",32,20,1


"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitraryseeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitraryseeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34127659574468083,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6587234042553192,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",47,20,1


"...allthingsconsidered, be good for the world.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...allthingsconsidered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8142857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18571428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",28,20,1


"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,20,1


"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15333333333333335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8466666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,20,1


"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21636363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7836363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,20,1


"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11681818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8831818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,20,1


"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04739130434782608,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9526086956521739,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",23,20,1


"Google will survive for 15 more years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8838095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.11619047619047618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,20,1


"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07454545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9254545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,20,1


"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9305,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,19,1


"United States will invade Australia and take over","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,19,1


"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5694285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4305714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",35,19,1


"90% chance of AI by 2050 Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4704761904761905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5295238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,19,1


"Conditional on the AI community learning of preAGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20preAGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6031428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",35,18,1


"...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.484,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.516,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,19,1


"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8313636363636364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16863636363636358,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,19,1


"In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Insideview)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Insideview)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8738461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12615384615384617,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,19,1


"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using ""more dakka"", for some reasonable version of ""more dakka""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20""more%20dakka"",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20""more%20dakka""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20523809523809525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7947619047619048,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,19,1


"In the hypothetical, will an AIinduced point of no return happen by end of 2020?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AIinduced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8185714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18142857142857138,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",28,19,1


"...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3638095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6361904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,19,1


"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK Charlie Stross","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02210526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9778947368421053,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,19,1


"No human will visit the moon from 20122020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%2020122020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7484999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25150000000000006,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,19,1


"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.542,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45799999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,19,1


"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.13249999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",24,19,1


"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7243478260869566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2756521739130434,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",23,19,1


"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.648,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.352,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",40,18,1


"The strategystealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the longrun future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarlysized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategystealing%20assumption%20is%20""a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true"".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20longrun%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarlysized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3281481481481482,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6718518518518518,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",27,18,1


"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4026923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5973076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,18,1


"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6427777777777777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35722222222222233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,18,1


"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20""Clogged%20drainpipe""%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6434000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3565999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",50,18,1


"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12047619047619047,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8795238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,18,1


"Between 20162116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%2020162116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5177777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4822222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,18,1


"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6754545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3245454545454546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,18,1


"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03318181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9668181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,18,1


"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08388888888888889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9161111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,17,1


"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.017222222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9827777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,17,1


"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' Arthur C. Clarke","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.018000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.982,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,17,1


"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2161904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7838095238095237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,17,1


"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6933333333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30666666666666675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,17,1


"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4717391304347826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5282608695652173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",23,17,1


"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12789473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8721052631578947,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,17,1


"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",23,17,1


"aliens invade earth in 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.009444444444444445,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9905555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,17,1


"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,17,1


"Humanlevel artificial general intelligence by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanlevel%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26894736842105266,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7310526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,17,1


"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8395238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16047619047619055,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,17,1


"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9531578947368421,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04684210526315791,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,16,1


"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7770588235294117,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2229411764705883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,16,1


"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary singlegene disorders  sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, TaySachs, muscular dystrophy...  in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20singlegene%20disorders%20%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20TaySachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6533333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,16,1


"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4288888888888889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5711111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,16,1


"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,16,1


"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5777777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42222222222222217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,16,1


"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.049,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.951,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,16,1


"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20""in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19105263157894736,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8089473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,16,1


"US presidents term limits abolished","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02235294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9776470588235294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,16,1


"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0811764705882353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9188235294117647,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,16,1


"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35526315789473684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6447368421052632,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,16,1


"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20""World%20War%20III""%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20""allies""%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.933125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06687500000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,15,1


"Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5517647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44823529411764707,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,15,1


"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,15,1


"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7394117647058823,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2605882352941177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,15,1


"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.294375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.705625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,15,1


"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6647058823529411,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33529411764705885,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,15,1


"Decisionmakers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decisionmakers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.23450000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,15,1


"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4064,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,15,1


"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5689655172413793,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43103448275862066,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",29,15,1


"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grandchildrens life time.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grandchildrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.926875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.073125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,15,1


"Mark Zuckerberg, cofounder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20cofounder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03705882352941177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9629411764705882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,15,1


"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about infohazards.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20infohazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7811764705882354,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21882352941176464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,15,1


"C still widely in use in the 2020s","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9353333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06466666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,15,1


"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.118125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.881875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,15,1


"A CRISPRedited human baby will be born by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPRedited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43473684210526314,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5652631578947369,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,15,1


"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1448,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8552,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,15,1


"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41470588235294115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5852941176470589,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,15,1


"By midcentury, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20midcentury,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28214285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7178571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,14,1


"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47388888888888886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5261111111111112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,14,1


"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3026315789473684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6973684210526316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,14,1


"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a freesoftware license.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20freesoftware%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,14,1


"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17394444444444446,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8260555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,14,1


"Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.


","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.


&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.111875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.888125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,14,1


"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05941176470588236,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9405882352941176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,14,1


"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9053333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,14,1


"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" James Miller","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.""%20James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0955,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,14,1


"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20""Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow"".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9214285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,14,1


"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08785714285714287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9121428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,14,1


"By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,14,1


"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8220000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17799999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,14,1


"The next nonDemocrat to win the White House will also be a nonRepublican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20nonDemocrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20nonRepublican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,14,1


"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09823529411764706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9017647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,14,1


"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,14,1


"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8717647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12823529411764711,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,14,1


"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.938,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,14,1


"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11733333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8826666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,14,1


"Humanity still a thing in 2036","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1


"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20""spaceship""%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5135714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,13,1


"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7066666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,13,1


"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.40842105263157896,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.591578947368421,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,13,1


"ETI is AGI","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8461111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15388888888888885,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,13,1


"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20""SETI%20Winter""%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7389473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2610526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,13,1


"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""The%20Essential%20Workers""%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4026666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5973333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,13,1


"10 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9158333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",36,13,1


"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040.  Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.320625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6793750000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,13,1


"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4446153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5553846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,13,1


"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet.  Alyssa Vance","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44153846153846155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5584615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1


"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20""Pilotless""%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6271428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3728571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,13,1


"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8146153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1


"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so.  Robin Hanson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2764285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7235714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,13,1


"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9053333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,13,1


"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3830769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6169230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1


"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.955,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,13,1


"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.853125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14687499999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,13,1


"In the next ten years, selfidentified Libertarians will outnumber selfidentified Republicans in the US. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20selfidentified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20selfidentified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1469230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8530769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1


"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1


"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11076923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8892307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1


"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2978571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7021428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,13,1


"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.040769230769230766,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9592307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1


"Trump dies of COVID19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",32,13,1


"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9466666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,13,1


"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.106875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.893125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,13,1


"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20""How%20to%20create%20a%20mind"")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7324999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,13,1


"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,13,1


"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1336842105263158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8663157894736842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,13,1


"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04923076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9507692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1


"Labgrown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animalgrown meat or cheaper.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Labgrown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animalgrown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1


"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07714285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9228571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1


"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of qualityadjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20""train%20it%20away""?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20qualityadjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6315384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3684615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,13,1


"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4607142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5392857142857144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1


"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8566666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1


"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1


"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03833333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9616666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1


"By 2020, there will be a new World government. Ray Kurzweil","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.027333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9726666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1


"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1


"the average lifespan will be eightyfive to ninety in 2100. S. Jay Olshansky","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eightyfive%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9235714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1


"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1


"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.696,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1


"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5107142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4892857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1


"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" lukeprog","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.""%20lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6653846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33461538461538465,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1


"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8683333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1316666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1


"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' Kevin","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8583333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1


"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040.  Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3707692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6292307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1


"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040.  Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.696923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.303076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1


"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24333333333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7566666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1


"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6083333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3916666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1


"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3358333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6641666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1


"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.013076923076923076,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9869230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1


"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1


"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49242424242424243,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5075757575757576,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",33,12,1


"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4310526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5689473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,12,1


"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5246666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4753333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1


"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1


"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,12,1


"Kanye West elected President by 2032  Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.006,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1


"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.46692307692307694,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.533076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1


"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8407142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1


"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (thirdparty created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(thirdparty%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7892307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21076923076923082,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1


"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9535714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1


"100 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.007931034482758621,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9920689655172413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",29,12,1


"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23377083333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7662291666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",24,11,1


"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1


"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4081818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5918181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,11,1


"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9646153846153847,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1


"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,11,1


"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20""same""?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20""final%20being""?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26272727272727275,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7372727272727273,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1


"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38636363636363635,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6136363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1


"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7633333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1


"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" Marc Andreessen","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones""%20Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7516666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2483333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1


"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1


"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21272727272727274,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7872727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1


"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.” Kelly L Anderson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1


"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2475,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1


"50 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.016470588235294115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9835294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",34,11,1


"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2809090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7190909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1


"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8633333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1


"Trump wins the 2020 election.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4753846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5246153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1


"Arbital to become a top1000 site by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1


"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10181818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8981818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1


"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6778571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32214285714285706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1


"People will choose virtualreality clothes/makeup/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtualreality%20clothes/makeup/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33090909090909093,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6690909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1


"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45692307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.543076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1


"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.024166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9758333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1


"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5557142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4442857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1


"Trump will run for president in 2024","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20384615384615384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7961538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1


"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08923076923076924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9107692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1


"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28428571428571425,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7157142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1


"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040.  Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6592857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34071428571428575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1


"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040.  Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6866666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31333333333333324,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1


"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4314285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1


"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20""Grognor""%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4592307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5407692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1


"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040.  Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31636363636363635,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6836363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1


"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for highfrequency trading within 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20highfrequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10785714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8921428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1


"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of statemandated involuntary euthanasia.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20statemandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1


"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5621428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43785714285714283,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1


"'President Mike Pence'","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.140625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.859375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,11,1


"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7783333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22166666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1


"Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9458333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1


"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1


"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44083333333333335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5591666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1


"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4307692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5692307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1


"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant  a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid  anywhere in the world.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.40909090909090906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1


"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5269230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47307692307692306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1


"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10285714285714287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8971428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1


"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,11,1


"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6679999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,11,1


"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4153846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5846153846153845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1


"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or invitroist) in 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20invitroist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7091666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1


"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03769230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9623076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1


"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" Dennis Mangan","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.""%20Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6481818181818181,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3518181818181819,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1


"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.""  Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.""%20%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20727272727272728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7927272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1


"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by selfdriving cars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20selfdriving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31384615384615383,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6861538461538461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1


"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45307692307692304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.546923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1

