quantified.uncertainty/metaforecast
1
0
Fork 0
Code Issues Pull Requests Packages Projects Releases Wiki Activity

Daily commit

Browse Source
This commit is contained in:
NunoSempere 2021-04-07 12:45:01 +02:00
parent 104800528a
commit 01788da517
15 changed files with 22550 additions and 22139 deletions
Show Stats Download Patch File Download Diff File Expand all files Collapse all files

234
data/csetforetell-questions.json
View File

@ -16,8 +16,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "68", "numforecasts": "80",
"numforecasters": "61", "numforecasters": "70",
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
@ -28,17 +28,17 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.23, "probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.77, "probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "40", "numforecasts": "46",
"numforecasters": "36", "numforecasters": "42",
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
@ -49,32 +49,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than 5.5%", "name": "Less than 5.5%",
"probability": 0.11220000000000001, "probability": 0.1084,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%", "name": "More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%",
"probability": 0.1967, "probability": 0.1932,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive", "name": "Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.2813, "probability": 0.2802,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive", "name": "Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.19649999999999998, "probability": 0.1954,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 12%", "name": "More than 12%",
"probability": 0.2133, "probability": 0.2229,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "94", "numforecasts": "96",
"numforecasters": "79", "numforecasters": "81",
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
@ -85,17 +85,17 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.7, "probability": 0.71,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.3, "probability": 0.29,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "21", "numforecasts": "26",
"numforecasters": "20", "numforecasters": "23",
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
@ -106,17 +106,17 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.56, "probability": 0.53,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.44, "probability": 0.47,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "19", "numforecasts": "22",
"numforecasters": "16", "numforecasters": "18",
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
@ -127,17 +127,17 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.83, "probability": 0.81,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.17, "probability": 0.19,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "17", "numforecasts": "19",
"numforecasters": "16", "numforecasters": "17",
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
@ -153,17 +153,17 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive", "name": "Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1274, "probability": 0.12890000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500", "name": "More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500",
"probability": 0.30670000000000003, "probability": 0.3059,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500", "name": "More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500",
"probability": 0.3063, "probability": 0.3056,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -172,7 +172,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "47", "numforecasts": "48",
"numforecasters": "39", "numforecasters": "39",
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
@ -184,32 +184,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than 70,000", "name": "Less than 70,000",
"probability": 0.1272, "probability": 0.12560000000000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive", "name": "Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive",
"probability": 0.34299999999999997, "probability": 0.33159999999999995,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000", "name": "More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000",
"probability": 0.31679999999999997, "probability": 0.3218,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000", "name": "More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000",
"probability": 0.1555, "probability": 0.16519999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 130,000", "name": "More than 130,000",
"probability": 0.0574, "probability": 0.0558,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "83", "numforecasts": "88",
"numforecasters": "68", "numforecasters": "72",
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
@ -220,32 +220,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than $400 billion", "name": "Less than $400 billion",
"probability": 0.11630000000000001, "probability": 0.0755,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive", "name": "Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1747, "probability": 0.171,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion", "name": "More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion",
"probability": 0.4926, "probability": 0.534,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion", "name": "More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion",
"probability": 0.1968, "probability": 0.2005,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $775 billion", "name": "More than $775 billion",
"probability": 0.0195, "probability": 0.019,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "31", "numforecasts": "35",
"numforecasters": "27", "numforecasters": "29",
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
@ -292,32 +292,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than $470 billion", "name": "Less than $470 billion",
"probability": 0.050199999999999995, "probability": 0.0512,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive", "name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.12560000000000002, "probability": 0.13449999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion", "name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion",
"probability": 0.23129999999999998, "probability": 0.2414,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion", "name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion",
"probability": 0.3196, "probability": 0.312,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $680 billion", "name": "More than $680 billion",
"probability": 0.2733, "probability": 0.2608,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "79", "numforecasts": "83",
"numforecasters": "69", "numforecasters": "71",
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
@ -328,17 +328,17 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2, "probability": 0.19,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.8, "probability": 0.81,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "138", "numforecasts": "142",
"numforecasters": "108", "numforecasters": "109",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{ {
@ -358,8 +358,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "187", "numforecasts": "193",
"numforecasters": "134", "numforecasters": "135",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{ {
@ -380,21 +380,21 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion", "name": "More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion",
"probability": 0.405, "probability": 0.4056,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion", "name": "More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion",
"probability": 0.2175, "probability": 0.21719999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $100 billion", "name": "More than $100 billion",
"probability": 0.0725, "probability": 0.0722,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "56", "numforecasts": "57",
"numforecasters": "46", "numforecasters": "46",
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
@ -406,32 +406,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than $13 billion", "name": "Less than $13 billion",
"probability": 0.0337, "probability": 0.0332,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive", "name": "Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.12369999999999999, "probability": 0.1242,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion", "name": "More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion",
"probability": 0.4183, "probability": 0.4213,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion", "name": "More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion",
"probability": 0.32130000000000003, "probability": 0.3194,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $25 billion", "name": "More than $25 billion",
"probability": 0.10300000000000001, "probability": 0.10189999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "57", "numforecasts": "58",
"numforecasters": "43", "numforecasters": "44",
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
@ -442,32 +442,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than -0.25", "name": "Less than -0.25",
"probability": 0.1943, "probability": 0.1937,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive", "name": "Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive",
"probability": 0.3171, "probability": 0.3191,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25", "name": "More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25",
"probability": 0.3009, "probability": 0.2991,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5", "name": "More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5",
"probability": 0.1464, "probability": 0.1467,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 0.5", "name": "More than 0.5",
"probability": 0.0412, "probability": 0.0414,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "148", "numforecasts": "149",
"numforecasters": "110", "numforecasters": "111",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{ {
@ -478,32 +478,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than $200 million", "name": "Less than $200 million",
"probability": 0.051, "probability": 0.0506,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive", "name": "Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1984, "probability": 0.19329999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million", "name": "More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million",
"probability": 0.3619, "probability": 0.35350000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million", "name": "More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million",
"probability": 0.2429, "probability": 0.254,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $650 million", "name": "More than $650 million",
"probability": 0.1458, "probability": 0.14859999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "113", "numforecasts": "115",
"numforecasters": "90", "numforecasters": "92",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{ {
@ -538,7 +538,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "142", "numforecasts": "143",
"numforecasters": "114", "numforecasters": "114",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
@ -574,7 +574,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "71", "numforecasts": "72",
"numforecasters": "44", "numforecasters": "44",
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
@ -586,32 +586,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than 800", "name": "Less than 800",
"probability": 0.1264, "probability": 0.12869999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 800 and 4,000", "name": "Between 800 and 4,000",
"probability": 0.46130000000000004, "probability": 0.45649999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000", "name": "More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000",
"probability": 0.2834, "probability": 0.2862,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000", "name": "More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000",
"probability": 0.09910000000000001, "probability": 0.099,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 100,000", "name": "More than 100,000",
"probability": 0.0297, "probability": 0.0296,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "153", "numforecasts": "156",
"numforecasters": "102", "numforecasters": "103",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{ {
@ -622,32 +622,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than 0.45%", "name": "Less than 0.45%",
"probability": 0.049699999999999994, "probability": 0.0484,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive", "name": "Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1778, "probability": 0.1732,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%", "name": "More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%",
"probability": 0.28300000000000003, "probability": 0.2768,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%", "name": "More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%",
"probability": 0.2289, "probability": 0.2242,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 1.2%", "name": "More than 1.2%",
"probability": 0.2605, "probability": 0.2774,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "66", "numforecasts": "67",
"numforecasters": "54", "numforecasters": "55",
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
@ -667,7 +667,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "151", "numforecasts": "152",
"numforecasters": "90", "numforecasters": "90",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
@ -724,8 +724,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "346", "numforecasts": "357",
"numforecasters": "194", "numforecasters": "196",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{ {
@ -736,27 +736,27 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Before February 17, 2021", "name": "Before February 17, 2021",
"probability": 0.0242, "probability": 0.0223,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive", "name": "Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive",
"probability": 0.08220000000000001, "probability": 0.0738,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021", "name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021",
"probability": 0.2161, "probability": 0.21559999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "After November 17, 2021", "name": "After November 17, 2021",
"probability": 0.6775, "probability": 0.6883,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "244", "numforecasts": "249",
"numforecasters": "135", "numforecasters": "137",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{ {
@ -767,17 +767,17 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than 59%", "name": "Less than 59%",
"probability": 0.1177, "probability": 0.11810000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 59% and 66%, inclusive", "name": "Between 59% and 66%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1777, "probability": 0.1775,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%", "name": "More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%",
"probability": 0.26780000000000004, "probability": 0.2675,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -791,7 +791,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "236", "numforecasts": "237",
"numforecasters": "169", "numforecasters": "169",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
@ -803,17 +803,17 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.73, "probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.27, "probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "197", "numforecasts": "201",
"numforecasters": "132", "numforecasters": "133",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{ {
@ -834,7 +834,7 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%", "name": "More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%",
"probability": 0.2133, "probability": 0.2139,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -844,11 +844,11 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 6%", "name": "More than 6%",
"probability": 0.2914, "probability": 0.2908,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "220", "numforecasts": "221",
"numforecasters": "140", "numforecasters": "140",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
} }

5570
data/elicit-questions.json
View File

File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff

504
data/fantasyscotus-questions.json
View File

@ -1,69 +1,29 @@
[ [
{
"title": "In Google LLC v. Oracle America Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "21.43% (21 out of 98) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.21428571428571427,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.7857142857142857,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 98,
"stars": 2
},
{ {
"title": "In United States v. Collins, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In United States v. Collins, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-collins/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-collins/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "73.68% (70 out of 95) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "73.96% (71 out of 96) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.7368421052631579, "probability": 0.7395833333333334,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.26315789473684215, "probability": 0.26041666666666663,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": 95, "numforecasts": 96,
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "In Borden v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/borden-v-united-states/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "52.94% (27 out of 51) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5294117647058824,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.47058823529411764,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 51,
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
"title": "In Jones v. Mississippi, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In Jones v. Mississippi, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/jones-v-mississippi/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/jones-v-mississippi/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "33.33% (21 out of 63) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "33.33% (22 out of 66) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -76,74 +36,74 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": 63, "numforecasts": 66,
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "In Borden v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/borden-v-united-states/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "51.92% (27 out of 52) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5192307692307693,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4807692307692307,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 52,
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
"title": "In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "10.47% (9 out of 86) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "10.34% (9 out of 87) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.10465116279069768, "probability": 0.10344827586206896,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.8953488372093024, "probability": 0.896551724137931,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": 86, "numforecasts": 87,
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
"title": "In Niz-Chavez v. Barr, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In Niz-Chavez v. Barr, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/niz-chavez-v-barr/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/niz-chavez-v-barr/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "28.57% (14 out of 49) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "28.00% (14 out of 50) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2857142857142857, "probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.7142857142857143, "probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": 49, "numforecasts": 50,
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "In Texas v. California (Severability), the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/texas-v-california-severability/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "30.16% (19 out of 63) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.30158730158730157,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6984126984126984,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 63,
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
"title": "In California v. Texas (Standing), the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In California v. Texas (Standing), the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/california-v-texas-standing/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/california-v-texas-standing/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "72.13% (44 out of 61) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "72.13% (44 out of 61) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -159,11 +119,31 @@
"numforecasts": 61, "numforecasts": 61,
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{
"title": "In Texas v. California (Severability), the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/texas-v-california-severability/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "30.16% (19 out of 63) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.30158730158730157,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6984126984126984,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 63,
"stars": 2
},
{ {
"title": "In Van Buren v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In Van Buren v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/van-buren-v-united-states/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/van-buren-v-united-states/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "14.04% (8 out of 57) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "14.04% (8 out of 57) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -179,31 +159,11 @@
"numforecasts": 57, "numforecasts": 57,
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{
"title": "In Cargill, Inc. v. Doe I, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/cargill-inc-v-doe-i/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "15.79% (6 out of 38) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15789473684210525,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8421052631578947,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 38,
"stars": 2
},
{ {
"title": "In Nestle USA, Inc. v. Doe I, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In Nestle USA, Inc. v. Doe I, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/nestle-usa-inc-v-doe-i/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/nestle-usa-inc-v-doe-i/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "19.51% (8 out of 41) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "19.51% (8 out of 41) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -219,11 +179,31 @@
"numforecasts": 41, "numforecasts": 41,
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{
"title": "In Cargill, Inc. v. Doe I, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/cargill-inc-v-doe-i/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "15.79% (6 out of 38) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15789473684210525,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8421052631578947,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 38,
"stars": 2
},
{ {
"title": "In CIC Services, LLC v. Internal Revenue Service, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In CIC Services, LLC v. Internal Revenue Service, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/cic-services-llc-v-internal-revenue-service/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/cic-services-llc-v-internal-revenue-service/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "66.67% (28 out of 42) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "66.67% (28 out of 42) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -243,27 +223,27 @@
"title": "In Edwards v. Vannoy, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In Edwards v. Vannoy, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/edwards-v-vannoy/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/edwards-v-vannoy/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "36.73% (18 out of 49) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "36.00% (18 out of 50) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3673469387755102, "probability": 0.36,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.6326530612244898, "probability": 0.64,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": 49, "numforecasts": 50,
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
"title": "In Henry Schein Inc. v. Archer, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In Henry Schein Inc. v. Archer, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/henry-schein-inc-v-archer/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/henry-schein-inc-v-archer/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "6.25% (2 out of 32) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "6.25% (2 out of 32) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -279,31 +259,11 @@
"numforecasts": 32, "numforecasts": 32,
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{
"title": "In Mnuchin v. Collins, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/mnuchin-v-collins/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "63.64% (21 out of 33) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6363636363636364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.36363636363636365,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 33,
"stars": 2
},
{ {
"title": "In Collins v. Mnuchin, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In Collins v. Mnuchin, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/collins-v-mnuchin/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/collins-v-mnuchin/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "84.85% (28 out of 33) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "84.85% (28 out of 33) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -319,11 +279,31 @@
"numforecasts": 33, "numforecasts": 33,
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{
"title": "In Mnuchin v. Collins, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/mnuchin-v-collins/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "63.64% (21 out of 33) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6363636363636364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.36363636363636365,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 33,
"stars": 2
},
{ {
"title": "In Pham v. Guzman Chavez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In Pham v. Guzman Chavez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/pham-v-guzman-chavez/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/pham-v-guzman-chavez/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "34.38% (11 out of 32) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "34.38% (11 out of 32) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -343,7 +323,7 @@
"title": "In AMG Capital Management, LLC v. FTC, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In AMG Capital Management, LLC v. FTC, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/amg-capital-management-llc-v-ftc/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/amg-capital-management-llc-v-ftc/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "25.81% (8 out of 31) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "25.81% (8 out of 31) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -363,7 +343,7 @@
"title": "In BP P.L.C. v. Mayor and City Council of Baltimore, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In BP P.L.C. v. Mayor and City Council of Baltimore, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/bp-plc-v-mayor-and-city-council-of-baltimore/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/bp-plc-v-mayor-and-city-council-of-baltimore/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "22.22% (8 out of 36) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "22.22% (8 out of 36) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -383,27 +363,27 @@
"title": "In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "37.50% (3 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "30.00% (3 out of 10) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.375, "probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.625, "probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": 8, "numforecasts": 10,
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
"title": "In United States v. Cooley, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In United States v. Cooley, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-cooley/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-cooley/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "0.00% (0 out of 12) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "0.00% (0 out of 14) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -416,34 +396,34 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": 12, "numforecasts": 14,
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
"title": "In Caniglia v. Strom, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In Caniglia v. Strom, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/caniglia-v-strom/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/caniglia-v-strom/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "27.27% (3 out of 11) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "30.77% (4 out of 13) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2727272727272727, "probability": 0.3076923076923077,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.7272727272727273, "probability": 0.6923076923076923,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": 11, "numforecasts": 13,
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
"title": "In Goldman Sachs Group Inc. v. Arkansas Teacher Retirement System, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In Goldman Sachs Group Inc. v. Arkansas Teacher Retirement System, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/goldman-sachs-group-inc-v-arkansas-teacher-retirement-system/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/goldman-sachs-group-inc-v-arkansas-teacher-retirement-system/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "77.78% (7 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "77.78% (7 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -463,7 +443,7 @@
"title": "In TransUnion LLC v. Ramirez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In TransUnion LLC v. Ramirez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/transunion-llc-v-ramirez/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/transunion-llc-v-ramirez/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "11.11% (1 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "11.11% (1 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -483,67 +463,47 @@
"title": "In National Collegiate Athletic Association v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In National Collegiate Athletic Association v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "80.00% (8 out of 10) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "81.82% (9 out of 11) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.8, "probability": 0.8181818181818182,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.19999999999999996, "probability": 0.18181818181818177,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": 10, "numforecasts": 11,
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
"title": "In American Athletic Conference v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In American Athletic Conference v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/american-athletic-conference-v-alston/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/american-athletic-conference-v-alston/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "42.86% (3 out of 7) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "50.00% (4 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.42857142857142855, "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.5714285714285714, "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": 7, "numforecasts": 8,
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "In Sanchez v. Mayorkas, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/sanchez-v-mayorkas/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "0.00% (0 out of 4) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 4,
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
"title": "In Yellen v. Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In Yellen v. Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/yellen-v-confederated-tribes-of-the-chehalis-reservation/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/yellen-v-confederated-tribes-of-the-chehalis-reservation/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "33.33% (1 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "33.33% (1 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -559,11 +519,31 @@
"numforecasts": 3, "numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{
"title": "In Sanchez v. Mayorkas, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/sanchez-v-mayorkas/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "0.00% (0 out of 5) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 5,
"stars": 2
},
{ {
"title": "In Alaska Native Village Corporation Association v. Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In Alaska Native Village Corporation Association v. Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/alaska-native-village-corporation-association-v-confederated-tribes-of-the-chehalis-reservation/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/alaska-native-village-corporation-association-v-confederated-tribes-of-the-chehalis-reservation/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "100.00% (3 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "100.00% (3 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -583,7 +563,7 @@
"title": "In United States v. Gary, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In United States v. Gary, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-gary/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-gary/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -603,7 +583,7 @@
"title": "In Greer v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In Greer v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/greer-v-united-states/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/greer-v-united-states/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -619,31 +599,31 @@
"numforecasts": 2, "numforecasts": 2,
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{
"title": "In City of San Antonio, Texas v. Hotels.com, L.P., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/city-of-san-antonio-texas-v-hotelscom-lp/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 2,
"stars": 2
},
{ {
"title": "In Minerva Surgical Inc. v. Hologic Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In Minerva Surgical Inc. v. Hologic Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/minerva-surgical-inc-v-hologic-inc/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/minerva-surgical-inc-v-hologic-inc/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 2,
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "In City of San Antonio, Texas v. Hotels.com, L.P., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/city-of-san-antonio-texas-v-hotelscom-lp/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -663,7 +643,7 @@
"title": "In Guam v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In Guam v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/guam-v-united-states/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/guam-v-united-states/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "0.00% (0 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -676,14 +656,14 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": 2, "numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
"title": "In Thomas More Law Center v. Becerra, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In Thomas More Law Center v. Becerra, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/thomas-more-law-center-v-becerra/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/thomas-more-law-center-v-becerra/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -703,7 +683,7 @@
"title": "In Americans for Prosperity Foundation v. Becerra, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In Americans for Prosperity Foundation v. Becerra, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/americans-for-prosperity-foundation-v-becerra/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/americans-for-prosperity-foundation-v-becerra/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -723,7 +703,7 @@
"title": "In HollyFrontier Cheyenne Refining, LLC v. Renewable Fuels Association, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In HollyFrontier Cheyenne Refining, LLC v. Renewable Fuels Association, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/hollyfrontier-cheyenne-refining-llc-v-renewable-fuels-association/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/hollyfrontier-cheyenne-refining-llc-v-renewable-fuels-association/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -743,7 +723,7 @@
"title": "In United States v. Palomar-Santiago, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In United States v. Palomar-Santiago, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-palomar-santiago/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-palomar-santiago/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -763,7 +743,7 @@
"title": "In PennEast Pipeline Co. v. New Jersey, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In PennEast Pipeline Co. v. New Jersey, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/penneast-pipeline-co-v-new-jersey/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/penneast-pipeline-co-v-new-jersey/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -783,7 +763,7 @@
"title": "In Mahanoy Area School District v. B.L., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In Mahanoy Area School District v. B.L., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/mahanoy-area-school-district-v-bl/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/mahanoy-area-school-district-v-bl/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "100.00% (3 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "100.00% (3 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -803,7 +783,7 @@
"title": "In Department of Justice v. House Committee on the Judiciary, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In Department of Justice v. House Committee on the Judiciary, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/department-of-justice-v-house-committee-on-the-judiciary/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/department-of-justice-v-house-committee-on-the-judiciary/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "0.00% (0 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "0.00% (0 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -823,7 +803,7 @@
"title": "In United States v. Arthrex Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In United States v. Arthrex Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-arthrex-inc/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-arthrex-inc/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "82.35% (14 out of 17) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "82.35% (14 out of 17) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -843,27 +823,27 @@
"title": "In Carr v. Saul, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In Carr v. Saul, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/carr-v-saul/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/carr-v-saul/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "31.25% (5 out of 16) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "27.78% (5 out of 18) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3125, "probability": 0.2777777777777778,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.6875, "probability": 0.7222222222222222,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": 16, "numforecasts": 18,
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
"title": "In Smith & Nephew Inc. v. Arthrex Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In Smith & Nephew Inc. v. Arthrex Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/smith-nephew-inc-v-arthrex-inc/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/smith-nephew-inc-v-arthrex-inc/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "81.25% (13 out of 16) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "81.25% (13 out of 16) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -883,7 +863,27 @@
"title": "In Arthrex Inc. v. Smith & Nephew Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In Arthrex Inc. v. Smith & Nephew Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/arthrex-inc-v-smith-nephew-inc/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/arthrex-inc-v-smith-nephew-inc/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "14.29% (2 out of 14) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "14.29% (2 out of 14) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.14285714285714285,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8571428571428572,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 14,
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "In Davis v. Saul, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/davis-v-saul/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "14.29% (2 out of 14) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -903,7 +903,7 @@
"title": "In Lange v. California, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In Lange v. California, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/lange-v-california/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/lange-v-california/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "36.11% (13 out of 36) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "36.11% (13 out of 36) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -919,31 +919,11 @@
"numforecasts": 36, "numforecasts": 36,
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{
"title": "In Davis v. Saul, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/davis-v-saul/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "16.67% (2 out of 12) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8333333333333334,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 12,
"stars": 2
},
{ {
"title": "In Trump v. Sierra Club, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In Trump v. Sierra Club, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/trump-v-sierra-club/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/trump-v-sierra-club/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "66.67% (10 out of 15) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "66.67% (10 out of 15) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -963,47 +943,27 @@
"title": "In Barr v. Dai, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In Barr v. Dai, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/barr-v-dai/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/barr-v-dai/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "37.50% (6 out of 16) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "35.29% (6 out of 17) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.375, "probability": 0.35294117647058826,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.625, "probability": 0.6470588235294117,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": 16, "numforecasts": 17,
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "In Barr v. Alcaraz-Enriquez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/barr-v-alcaraz-enriquez/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "53.33% (8 out of 15) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5333333333333333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4666666666666667,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 15,
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
"title": "In National Association of Broadcasters v. Prometheus Radio Project, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In National Association of Broadcasters v. Prometheus Radio Project, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/national-association-of-broadcasters-v-prometheus-radio-project/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/national-association-of-broadcasters-v-prometheus-radio-project/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "16.67% (2 out of 12) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "16.67% (2 out of 12) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -1019,11 +979,31 @@
"numforecasts": 12, "numforecasts": 12,
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{
"title": "In Barr v. Alcaraz-Enriquez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/barr-v-alcaraz-enriquez/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "53.33% (8 out of 15) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5333333333333333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4666666666666667,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 15,
"stars": 2
},
{ {
"title": "In Wolf v. Innovation Law Lab, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In Wolf v. Innovation Law Lab, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/wolf-v-innovation-law-lab/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/wolf-v-innovation-law-lab/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "100.00% (4 out of 4) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "100.00% (4 out of 4) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -1043,7 +1023,7 @@
"title": "In Brnovich v. Democratic National Committee, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In Brnovich v. Democratic National Committee, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/brnovich-v-democratic-national-committee/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/brnovich-v-democratic-national-committee/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "0.00% (0 out of 20) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "0.00% (0 out of 22) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
@ -1056,27 +1036,27 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": 20, "numforecasts": 22,
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
"title": "In Arizona Republican Party v. Democratic National Committee, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "title": "In Arizona Republican Party v. Democratic National Committee, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/arizona-republican-party-v-democratic-national-committee/", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/arizona-republican-party-v-democratic-national-committee/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "4.00% (1 out of 25) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.", "description": "3.57% (1 out of 28) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.04, "probability": 0.03571428571428571,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.96, "probability": 0.9642857142857143,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": 25, "numforecasts": 28,
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
} }
] ]

249
data/goodjudgment-questions.json
View File

@ -1,4 +1,33 @@
[ [
{
"title": "Will legislation raising the US federal minimum wage become law before 3 January 2023?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "After the US Senate voted <a href=\"https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/541826-senate-rejects-sanders-15-minimum-wage-hike\" target=\"_blank\">against</a> a $15.00 an hour federal minimum wage, proponents have shifted to new <a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-minimum-wage-setback-could-kick-start-talks-with-republicans-11615057218\" target=\"_blank\">strategies</a>. The current federal minimum <a href=\"https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/29/206\" target=\"_blank\">wage</a> is <a href=\"https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage\" target=\"_blank\">$7.25</a> per hour. In the case of phased increases, the question would resolve based on the final hourly rate to be implemented and irrespective of any indexing. The effective date of an increase would be immaterial.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes, to less than $10.00",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yes, to $10.00 or more, but less than $15.00",
"probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yes, to $15.00 or more",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.46,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
},
{ {
"title": "What percentage of global light vehicle sales in 2021 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)?</a>", "title": "What percentage of global light vehicle sales in 2021 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
@ -17,7 +46,7 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%", "name": "More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%",
"probability": 0.25, "probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -27,60 +56,7 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 7.0%", "name": "More than 7.0%",
"probability": 0.21, "probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "What will be OPEC's crude oil production for June 2021?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "It remains to be seen how the COVID-19 pandemic will affect <a href=\"https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/04/13/a-historic-opec-deal-to-curb-oil-output-faces-many-obstacles\" target=\"_blank\">OPEC</a> <a href=\"https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/23/the-coronavirus-oil-shock-is-just-getting-started/\" target=\"_blank\">production</a> after 2020. The outcome will be determined using monthly data for \"Total OPEC\" reported in the \"OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d table of the \"World Oil Supply\" section of OPEC's <a href=\"https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/5844.htm\" target=\"_blank\">Monthly Oil Market Report</a>. The April 2020 report shows \"Total OPEC\" produced 28.612 million barrels per day in <a href=\"https://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/OPEC_MOMR_Apr_2020.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">March 2020</a> (see Table 5.8 on page 45 in the document). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the June 2021 data are released, scheduled for July 2021.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 21 million barrels per day",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 21 million and 24 million barrels per day, inclusive",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 24 million but less than 27 million barrels per day",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 27 million and 30 million barrels per day, inclusive",
"probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 30 million barrels per day",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will US federal legislation implementing or authorizing a mandatory \"carbon pricing mechanism\" become law before 1 January 2023?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "President Biden and Democrats in Congress are exploring <a href=\"https://eelp.law.harvard.edu/2020/11/president-elect-biden-supports-a-carbon-enforcement-mechanism-could-that-mean-a-price-on-carbon/\" target=\"_blank\">policy</a> <a href=\"https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/534985-carbon-pricing-could-be-the-biden-administrations-climate-tool\" target=\"_blank\">options</a> to impose <a href=\"https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/649352/EPRS_BRI%282020%29649352_EN.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">mandatory</a> carbon pricing in the United States. For the purposes of this question, a \"carbon <a href=\"https://carbonpricingdashboard.worldbank.org/what-carbon-pricing\" target=\"_blank\">pricing</a> mechanism\" would be a legal framework that captures the external costs of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and ties them to their sources through a price, usually in the form of a price on the CO2 emitted, and could include taxes and/or a cap-and-trade system. Examples of existing mandatory carbon pricing mechanisms include the <a href=\"https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/ets_en\" target=\"_blank\">EU</a> Emissions Trading System, the <a href=\"https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/cap-and-trade-program\" target=\"_blank\">California</a> Cap-and-Trade Program, and the Regional Greenhouse Gas <a href=\"https://www.rggi.org\" target=\"_blank\">Initiative</a>.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -120,10 +96,45 @@
], ],
"stars": 4 "stars": 4
}, },
{
"title": "When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is <a href=\"https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/08/944125280/u-k-begins-nationwide-coronavirus-immunization-largest-in-nations-history\" target=\"_blank\">pushing</a> to <a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55227325\" target=\"_blank\">execute</a> its <a href=\"https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-protocol-for-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-bnt162b2-pfizerbiontech\" target=\"_blank\">plan</a>. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the <a href=\"https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus\" target=\"_blank\">UK</a> <a href=\"https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1339167258866814976\" target=\"_blank\">government</a>. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 March 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021",
"probability": 0.91,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021",
"probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 September 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
},
{ {
"title": "When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>", "title": "When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment", "platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "Dozens of companies are trying to <a href=\"https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines\" target=\"_blank\">develop</a> a <a href=\"https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine\" target=\"_blank\">viable</a> <a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html\" target=\"_blank\">vaccine</a> for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived <a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101\" target=\"_blank\">can</a> be <a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization\" target=\"_blank\"> found</a> <a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>. \"Compassionate use\" and \"emergency use\" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also <a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access\" target=\"_blank\">count</a>. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the <a href=\"https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm\" target=\"_blank\">2018-2019</a> flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). ",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Before 1 April 2021", "name": "Before 1 April 2021",
@ -153,126 +164,6 @@
], ],
"stars": 4 "stars": 4
}, },
{
"title": "When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is <a href=\"https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/08/944125280/u-k-begins-nationwide-coronavirus-immunization-largest-in-nations-history\" target=\"_blank\">pushing</a> to <a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55227325\" target=\"_blank\">execute</a> its <a href=\"https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-protocol-for-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-bnt162b2-pfizerbiontech\" target=\"_blank\">plan</a>. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the <a href=\"https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus\" target=\"_blank\">UK</a> <a href=\"https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1339167258866814976\" target=\"_blank\">government</a>. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 March 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021",
"probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021",
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 September 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "When will the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 1.4 million or more travelers per day for seven consecutive days?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "With COVID-19 vaccine approvals, airlines are looking to <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/north-american-post-pandemic-travel-recovery-report/\" target=\"_blank\">recover</a> from the drop in travel caused by the pandemic. The outcome will be determined using the \"TSA checkpoint travel numbers\" reported by the TSA (<a href=\"https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput\" target=\"_blank\">www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput</a>). The question will resolve when data in the column \"2021 Traveler Throughput\" first shows seven consecutive days of 1.4 million or more travelers.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 July 2021",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who \"worked from home exclusively\"?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"options": [
{
"name": "10% or less",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 10% but less than 20%",
"probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 30%",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "What will happen next with regard to the Tokyo Olympics?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "The <a href=\"https://www.olympic.org/tokyo-2020\" target=\"_blank\">Games</a> of the XXXII Olympiad were scheduled to begin on 24 July 2020 in <a href=\"https://tokyo2020.org/en/\" target=\"_blank\">Tokyo</a>. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they have been <a href=\"https://japantoday.com/category/sports/postponed-tokyo-olympics-hit-1-year-to-go-mark-again\" target=\"_blank\">postponed</a> to 23 July 2021. Public <a href=\"https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/07/342812540942-urgent-59-discontent-with-japan-govt-response-to-pandemic-poll.html\" target=\"_blank\">opinion</a> in Japan is divided between holding, postponing, and cancelling the Games.",
"options": [
{
"name": "The Games will begin",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "The Games will be postponed again by more than a day",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "The Games will be cancelled",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
},
{ {
"title": "In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&amp;P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?</a>", "title": "In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&amp;P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/", "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
@ -315,12 +206,12 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% ", "name": "Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% ",
"probability": 0.06, "probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive", "name": "Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.8, "probability": 0.79,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -402,12 +293,12 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 10% but less than 20%", "name": "More than 10% but less than 20%",
"probability": 0.77, "probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive", "name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.21, "probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {

704
data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json
View File

File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff

92
data/hypermind-questions.json
View File

@ -82,57 +82,57 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Xavier Bertrand", "name": "Xavier Bertrand",
"probability": 0.02941176470588235, "probability": 0.038461538461538464,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Pierre de Villiers", "name": "Pierre de Villiers",
"probability": 0.00980392156862745, "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Anne Hidalgo", "name": "Anne Hidalgo",
"probability": 0.02941176470588235, "probability": 0.028846153846153844,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Yannick Jadot", "name": "Yannick Jadot",
"probability": 0.00980392156862745, "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Marine Le Pen", "name": "Marine Le Pen",
"probability": 0.12745098039215685, "probability": 0.1346153846153846,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Emmanuel Macron", "name": "Emmanuel Macron",
"probability": 0.5490196078431372, "probability": 0.548076923076923,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"probability": 0.00980392156862745, "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Valérie Pécresse", "name": "Valérie Pécresse",
"probability": 0.0196078431372549, "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Eric Piolle", "name": "Eric Piolle",
"probability": 0.00980392156862745, "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Another woman", "name": "Another woman",
"probability": 0.02941176470588235, "probability": 0.05769230769230769,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Another man", "name": "Another man",
"probability": 0.1764705882352941, "probability": 0.14423076923076925,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -218,12 +218,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "France", "name": "France",
"probability": 0.12, "probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Japan", "name": "Japan",
"probability": 0.87, "probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -262,27 +262,27 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Maybe later", "name": "Maybe later",
"probability": 0.09, "probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "April 2021", "name": "April 2021",
"probability": 0.010101010101010102, "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "May 2021", "name": "May 2021",
"probability": 0.0707070707070707, "probability": 0.15841584158415842,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "June 2021", "name": "June 2021",
"probability": 0.2727272727272727, "probability": 0.2178217821782178,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Maybe after June 2021", "name": "Maybe after June 2021",
"probability": 0.6464646464646465, "probability": 0.6039603960396039,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -296,27 +296,27 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "In May or earlier", "name": "In May or earlier",
"probability": 0.01, "probability": 0.010204081632653062,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "in June (government goal)", "name": "in June (government goal)",
"probability": 0.54, "probability": 0.653061224489796,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "in July", "name": "in July",
"probability": 0.28, "probability": 0.20408163265306123,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "in August", "name": "in August",
"probability": 0.09, "probability": 0.06122448979591837,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Maybe later", "name": "Maybe later",
"probability": 0.08, "probability": 0.07142857142857144,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -552,17 +552,17 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Q2, 2021", "name": "Q2, 2021",
"probability": 0.26262626262626265, "probability": 0.29292929292929293,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Q3, 2021", "name": "Q3, 2021",
"probability": 0.4242424242424243, "probability": 0.4141414141414142,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Q4, 2021", "name": "Q4, 2021",
"probability": 0.18181818181818182, "probability": 0.16161616161616163,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -581,17 +581,17 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Benjamin Netanyahu", "name": "Benjamin Netanyahu",
"probability": 0.79, "probability": 0.7920792079207921,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Another Likud politician", "name": "Another Likud politician",
"probability": 0.01, "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Another politician not from Likud", "name": "Another politician not from Likud",
"probability": 0.2, "probability": 0.19801980198019803,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -605,17 +605,17 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Worse than the 2012 record", "name": "Worse than the 2012 record",
"probability": 0.23, "probability": 0.2277227722772277,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012", "name": "Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012",
"probability": 0.3, "probability": 0.297029702970297,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Not worse than 2020", "name": "Not worse than 2020",
"probability": 0.47, "probability": 0.4752475247524752,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -673,22 +673,22 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "in Q2, 2021", "name": "in Q2, 2021",
"probability": 0.4095238095238095, "probability": 0.3092783505154639,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "in Q3, 2021", "name": "in Q3, 2021",
"probability": 0.17142857142857143, "probability": 0.18556701030927833,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "in Q4, 2021", "name": "in Q4, 2021",
"probability": 0.18095238095238095, "probability": 0.19587628865979378,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Perhaps later", "name": "Perhaps later",
"probability": 0.23809523809523805, "probability": 0.3092783505154639,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -702,22 +702,22 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "USA", "name": "USA",
"probability": 0.01, "probability": 0.00970873786407767,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "France", "name": "France",
"probability": 0.7, "probability": 0.6990291262135923,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Germany", "name": "Germany",
"probability": 0.25, "probability": 0.2621359223300971,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "United Kingdom", "name": "United Kingdom",
"probability": 0.04, "probability": 0.02912621359223301,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -731,22 +731,22 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "USA", "name": "USA",
"probability": 0.9, "probability": 0.9207920792079207,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "France", "name": "France",
"probability": 0.01, "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Germany", "name": "Germany",
"probability": 0.01, "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "United Kingdom", "name": "United Kingdom",
"probability": 0.08, "probability": 0.0594059405940594,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -817,12 +817,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.92, "probability": 0.9313725490196079,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.08, "probability": 0.06862745098039215,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],

464
data/ladbrokes-questions.json
View File

File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff

9008
data/metaculus-questions.json
View File

File diff suppressed because one or more lines are too long

4641
data/metaforecasts.csv
View File

File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff

20503
data/metaforecasts.json
View File

File diff suppressed because one or more lines are too long

530
data/polymarket-questions.json
View File

@ -1,109 +1,4 @@
[ [
{
"title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.8999860766695875619471546064478487",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.1000139233304124380528453935521513",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "850",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on July 31, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-july-31-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on July 31, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.03761913118139671975368716980885902",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.962380868818603280246312830191141",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "152",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will the workers at Amazon's Bessemer facility unionize by May 5?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-workers-at-amazons-bessemer-facility-unionize-by-may-5",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the workers at the Amazon fulfillment center in Bessemer, Alabama, will win their effort to unionize by May 5, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the National Labor Relations Board certifies the RETAIL, WHOLESALE AND DEPARTMENT STORE UNION as the representative of the workers at the Amazon Bessemer facility for the purposes of collective bargaining (Case Number: 10-RC-269250, https://www.nlrb.gov/case/10-RC-269250). This market will resolve to “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be an official “Certification of Representative” decision from the National Labor Relations Board. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1400736035928692911440260279913681",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.8599263964071307088559739720086319",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "87",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will 1 billion doses of a COVID-19 vaccine have been administered globally by April 26, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-1-billion-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-have-been-administered-globally-by-april-26-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether 1 billion doses of a COVID-19 will have been administered globally prior to April 26, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least 1 billion doses of a COVID-19 vaccine are administered globally prior to the resolution date, April 26, 2021, 12 PM ET, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be the data published to Our World in Data’s coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccinations dashboard, available at https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations, specifically the cumulative COVID-19 vaccination doses administered. This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9371314398573680504652377356106168",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.06286856014263194953476226438938325",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "91",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "How many charges will Derek Chauvin be convicted of?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-charges-will-derek-chauvin-be-convicted-of",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This market is on how many charges the jury will find Derek Chauvin guilty of. Chauvin is charged criminally in Minnesota on three counts, each of which he has pleaded not guilty to. The maximum number of charges that Chauvin can be convicted of is two. This market will resolve to the number of counts Derek Chauvin is convicted on: zero (not guilty on all counts), one (guilty on one count), or two (guilty on two counts). In the event of a \"hung jury\" or mistrial, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket, \"0\". If the trial is delayed, the market resolution will be postponed until the start of the new trial date. In the event of a judgement of acquittal, this market will still resolve to the number of charges Chauvin is convicted of. The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Minnesota Judicial Branch, specifically the page for this specific case (27-CR-20-12646: State vs. Derek Chauvin) available at https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin.",
"options": [
{
"name": "0",
"probability": "0.4340876940115133782146219093820505",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1",
"probability": "0.3329396760476596955599754174467932",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2",
"probability": "0.2329726299408269262254026731711563",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "158",
"stars": 4
},
{ {
"title": "Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?", "title": "Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-american-mask-usage-be-75-or-higher-on-april-14th-2021", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-american-mask-usage-be-75-or-higher-on-april-14th-2021",
@ -112,36 +7,36 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.07278348450671392133713530102707062", "probability": "0.04289521231937485216720053165480434",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.9272165154932860786628646989729294", "probability": "0.9571047876806251478327994683451957",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "127", "numforecasts": "134",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{ {
"title": "Will 225M COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the US by Biden's 100th day in office? ", "title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-225-m-covid-19-vaccine-doses-have-been-administered-in-the-us-by-biden-s-100th-day-in-office", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match",
"platform": "PolyMarket", "platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether 225 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 225 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 225 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. ", "description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9607928070787265821137549067928738", "probability": "0.9002039693649043537392718015929172",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.03920719292127341788624509320712615", "probability": "0.09979603063509564626072819840708283",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "480", "numforecasts": "852",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{ {
@ -152,122 +47,16 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.137768459510460088156237908371624", "probability": "0.1626438948240446428508480347025264",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.862231540489539911843762091628376", "probability": "0.8373561051759553571491519652974736",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "96", "numforecasts": "112",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "What will The Weeknd’s Nifty Gateway drop generate in total sales?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-weeknds-nifty-gateway-drop-generate-in-total-sales",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on what The Weeknd’s NFT drop on April 3, 2021 will, on aggregate, generate in total sales. The release is currently scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on April 3, 2021, via Nifty Gateway. This market will resolve 48 hours later, on April 5, 2:00 PM ET, according to data published for the entirety of The Weeknd’s drop. The bracket which resolves to “Yes” will be the one which corresponds to the total sales of The Weeknd’s NFT drop. If the release is delayed, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 30 days. If canceled, each bracket will resolve equally to 20:20:20:20:20. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $5M",
"probability": "0.9970844774081486673702853220465268",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "$5M to less than $10M",
"probability": "0.002252133247187208361756349059784681",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "$10M to less than $20M",
"probability": "0.0002224270844625515253444555684127745",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "$20M to less than $30M",
"probability": "0.0002204809271256202801753957153618757",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "$30M or more",
"probability": "0.0002204813330759524624384776099138952",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "164",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will the US have 200M total COVID-19 vaccines administered by Biden’s 100th day in office?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-200m-total-covid-19-vaccines-administered-by-bidens-100th-day-in-office",
"address": "0xDB3b1c991c09B5a46911B9f991924A5A3639D676",
"description": "This is a market on whether 200 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 200 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 200 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. \n\n",
"outcomes": [
"Yes",
"No"
],
"options": []
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.03420631250384755319461498321788003",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.96579368749615244680538501678212",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "127",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.05944227492041401588695338806455382",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9405577250795859841130466119354462",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "450",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will North Dakota have the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-north-dakota-have-the-most-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-on-may-15-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on the state with the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on the resolution date, May 15, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if North Dakota has the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/. There will be no resolution delay for any anticipated data revisions. If, for any reason, data is not published prior to the resolution date, that data will not be considered for the resolution of this market. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.5576042441166223717836837081986532",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.4423957558833776282163162918013468",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "484",
"stars": 4 "stars": 4
}, },
{ {
@ -278,56 +67,166 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1272135716023695101901625708147504", "probability": "0.08230492310864397199453546569564446",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.8727864283976304898098374291852496", "probability": "0.9176950768913560280054645343043555",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "86", "numforecasts": "94",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.03925864458252690418984879310071039",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9607413554174730958101512068992896",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "105",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{ {
"title": "Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?", "title": "Will 225M COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the US by Biden's 100th day in office? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-225-m-covid-19-vaccine-doses-have-been-administered-in-the-us-by-biden-s-100th-day-in-office",
"platform": "PolyMarket", "platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".", "description": "This is a market on whether 225 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 225 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 225 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. ",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.02133163057367735072211258195805924", "probability": "0.9653019566630247126092061354150159",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.9786683694263226492778874180419408", "probability": "0.0346980433369752873907938645849841",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "760", "numforecasts": "509",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on July 31, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-july-31-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on July 31, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/.\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9251997333475857063590461609885448",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.07480026665241429364095383901145517",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "43",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will North Dakota have the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-north-dakota-have-the-most-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-on-may-15-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on the state with the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on the resolution date, May 15, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if North Dakota has the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/. There will be no resolution delay for any anticipated data revisions. If, for any reason, data is not published prior to the resolution date, that data will not be considered for the resolution of this market. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.5453758226938825658224889273909583",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.4546241773061174341775110726090417",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "527",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will the US have 200M total COVID-19 vaccines administered by Biden’s 100th day in office?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-200m-total-covid-19-vaccines-administered-by-bidens-100th-day-in-office",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether 200 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 200 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 200 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. \n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9952637804609687466398227552779004",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.004736219539031253360177244722099615",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "40",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "What will the 7-day average COVID-19 case count in the US be on April 9?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-7-day-average-covid-19-case-count-in-the-us-be-on-april-9",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on what the 7-day average COVID-19 case count will be in the US on April 9, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be the 7-day moving average of daily cases, as displayed on the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases). Note the CDC always presents this average as a whole number, which is the figure that will be used to resolve the market. The 7-day moving average will be checked at 12:00 PM ET on April 9, 2021. The bracket into which the 7-day moving average falls at that time will be the bracket this market resolves to. If the website is down at that time or for any reason data is not accessible on the website at the resolution date, the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC) will wait 24 hours (until 12:00 PM ET on April 10, 2021) and resolve as soon as data is available again. If data is still unavailable at that time, all brackets will resolve to 0.25 USDC. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "49,999 or fewer",
"probability": "0.005461995014925152009066173070714966",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "50,000-62,499",
"probability": "0.1402457285384641398727795776003874",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "62,500-74,999",
"probability": "0.8477845321483973198663299988905947",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "75,000 or more",
"probability": "0.006507744298213388251824250438302919",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "266",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.03415979679579444134958508639239318",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9658402032042055586504149136076068",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "132",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.07287449903319681253427004395658991",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9271255009668031874657299560434101",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "462",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{ {
@ -338,87 +237,77 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.7576761787844405298841269979213791", "probability": "0.7550145080311792637230679442582792",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.2423238212155594701158730020786209", "probability": "0.2449854919688207362769320557417208",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "1037", "numforecasts": "1213",
"stars": 4 "stars": 4
}, },
{ {
"title": "Will Joe Biden's disapproval rating be 40% or higher on April 7?", "title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-disapproval-rating-be-40-or-higher-on-april-7", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket", "platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's disapproval rating will be 40% or higher on April 7, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, indicated by the orange trend line here, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the disapproval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available disapproval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 8, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 7, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", "description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.4390479478378078263686834451491899", "probability": "0.03896671346054959704613527283522096",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.5609520521621921736313165548508101", "probability": "0.961033286539450402953864727164779",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "319", "numforecasts": "108",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "What will the 7-day average COVID-19 case count in the US be on April 9?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-7-day-average-covid-19-case-count-in-the-us-be-on-april-9",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on what the 7-day average COVID-19 case count will be in the US on April 9, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be the 7-day moving average of daily cases, as displayed on the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases). Note the CDC always presents this average as a whole number, which is the figure that will be used to resolve the market. The 7-day moving average will be checked at 12:00 PM ET on April 9, 2021. The bracket into which the 7-day moving average falls at that time will be the bracket this market resolves to. If the website is down at that time or for any reason data is not accessible on the website at the resolution date, the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC) will wait 24 hours (until 12:00 PM ET on April 10, 2021) and resolve as soon as data is available again. If data is still unavailable at that time, all brackets will resolve to 0.25 USDC. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "49,999 or fewer",
"probability": "0.01245159215307202152905888614012675",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "50,000-62,499",
"probability": "0.3852702140466881649880817103981702",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "62,500-74,999",
"probability": "0.5850094210925269969320208739163795",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "75,000 or more",
"probability": "0.01726877270771281655083852954532348",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "146",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{ {
"title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?", "title": "Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket", "platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n", "description": "This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.7322458281307298454159110622578949", "probability": "0.01581076221947057694031304319276671",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.2677541718692701545840889377421051", "probability": "0.9841892377805294230596869568072333",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "67", "numforecasts": "765",
"stars": 4 "stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will the US have fewer than 40,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 16, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-40-000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-16-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 16, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 40,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes\" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 40,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No\" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 40,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0866927470574085197706746528854292",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9133072529425914802293253471145708",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "679",
"stars": 3
}, },
{ {
"title": "Will more than 1.75 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day on or before April 10?", "title": "Will more than 1.75 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day on or before April 10?",
@ -428,16 +317,47 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1976957257819044650117159330637653", "probability": "0.1139484754054179756559525019638854",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.8023042742180955349882840669362347", "probability": "0.8860515245945820243440474980361146",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "406", "numforecasts": "485",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends",
"address": "0xa8B8c6cd59ECDe225D62185Cd3cAdE606e51b545",
"description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n",
"outcomes": [
"Yes",
"No"
],
"options": []
},
{
"title": "Will Apple, Amazon, or Twitter announce a Bitcoin purchase before July 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-apple-amazon-or-twitter-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-july-1-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Apple ($AAPL), Amazon ($AMZN), or Twitter ($TWTR) will announce either their intention to purchase Bitcoin ($BTC) off their balance sheet, the completion of such a purchase, or, in any other way, ownership of BTC on their balance sheet. This announcement may come from any official channel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Apple, Amazon, or Twitter satisfies any of the aforementioned resolution conditions before the resolution date, July 1, 2021, 12:00 AM ET. If for any reason the market conditions are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.2066787539519710416558416842894747",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.7933212460480289583441583157105253",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "95",
"stars": 4 "stars": 4
}, },
{ {
@ -448,16 +368,16 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Bezos", "name": "Bezos",
"probability": "0.8905974567101949679276675804783593", "probability": "0.9300703642912710245949175378339916",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Musk", "name": "Musk",
"probability": "0.1094025432898050320723324195216407", "probability": "0.06992963570872897540508246216600837",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "293", "numforecasts": "321",
"stars": 4 "stars": 3
} }
] ]

1196
data/predictit-questions.json
View File

File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff

347
data/smarkets-questions.json
View File

File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff

742
data/williamhill-questions.json
View File

@ -1,78 +1,96 @@
[ [
{ {
"title": "Labour", "title": "Sadiq Khan",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill", "platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5555555555555556,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4444444444444444,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Conservatives",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.47619047619047616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5238095238095238,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Northern Independence Party / Thelma Walker",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.029411764705882353,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9705882352941176, "probability": 0.9705882352941176,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.02941176470588236,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
"title": "Reform UK", "title": "Brian Rose",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill", "platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.0196078431372549, "probability": 0.047619047619047616,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.9803921568627451, "probability": 0.9523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
"title": "SDP", "title": "Shaun Bailey",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.038461538461538464,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Sian Berry",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.004975124378109453,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9950248756218906,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Luisa Porritt",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.004975124378109453,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9950248756218906,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Laurence Fox",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill", "platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [ "options": [
@ -90,25 +108,7 @@
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
"title": "Liberal Democrats", "title": "Kam Balayev",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.00398406374501992,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9960159362549801,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Heritage Party",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill", "platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [ "options": [
@ -126,7 +126,7 @@
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
"title": "Women's Equality Party", "title": "David Kurten",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill", "platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [ "options": [
@ -144,7 +144,7 @@
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
"title": "UKIP", "title": "Count Binface",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill", "platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [ "options": [
@ -162,7 +162,7 @@
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
"title": "North East Party", "title": "Richard Hewison",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill", "platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [ "options": [
@ -180,7 +180,7 @@
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
"title": "Samantha Lee (Ind)", "title": "Piers Corbyn",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill", "platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [ "options": [
@ -198,18 +198,293 @@
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
"title": "US Politics - Kamala Harris Specials", "title": "Farah London",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill", "platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Kamala Harris to become President of the United States before the end of 2040", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6086956521739131, "probability": 0.001996007984031936,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Kamala Harris to become a two-term President of the United States before the end of 2040", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.391304347826087, "probability": 0.998003992015968,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Peter Gammons",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.001996007984031936,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.998003992015968,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Nims Obunge",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.001996007984031936,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.998003992015968,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Max Fosh",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.001996007984031936,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.998003992015968,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Mandu Reid",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.001996007984031936,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.998003992015968,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Drillminister",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.001996007984031936,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.998003992015968,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Valerie Brown",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.001996007984031936,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.998003992015968,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Niko Omilana",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.001996007984031936,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.998003992015968,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Steve Kelleher",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.001996007984031936,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.998003992015968,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Vanessa Hudson",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.001996007984031936,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.998003992015968,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Next Cabinet Member to leave?",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [
{
"name": "Gavin Williamson",
"probability": 0.16408642733713108,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Matt Hancock",
"probability": 0.08790344321632022,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alok Sharma",
"probability": 0.08204321366856554,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Priti Patel",
"probability": 0.08204321366856554,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ben Wallace",
"probability": 0.06836934472380461,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robert Buckland",
"probability": 0.04733262327032628,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Boris Johnson",
"probability": 0.04733262327032628,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Therese Coffey",
"probability": 0.03619553544201421,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robert Jenrick",
"probability": 0.03619553544201421,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liz Truss",
"probability": 0.03619553544201421,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brandon Lewis",
"probability": 0.03619553544201421,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alister Jack",
"probability": 0.029301147738773407,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Grant Shapps",
"probability": 0.029301147738773407,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Amanda Milling",
"probability": 0.029301147738773407,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Oliver Dowden",
"probability": 0.029301147738773407,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Simon Hart",
"probability": 0.029301147738773407,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "George Eustice",
"probability": 0.029301147738773407,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Baroness Evans",
"probability": 0.029301147738773407,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rishi Sunak",
"probability": 0.02366631163516314,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dominic Raab",
"probability": 0.02366631163516314,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Gove",
"probability": 0.02366631163516314,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -538,6 +813,130 @@
], ],
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{
"title": "Most Seats in General Election",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
"probability": 0.5894327152386443,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.39000059354135863,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Reform UK",
"probability": 0.006134115295766403,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrat",
"probability": 0.006134115295766403,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "UKIP",
"probability": 0.004608215968461327,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Greens",
"probability": 0.0036902446600028953,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Hartlepool By-Election Winner",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservatives",
"probability": 0.5513240186053462,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.3958223723320434,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Northern Independence Party / Thelma Walker",
"probability": 0.017462751720531328,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Reform UK",
"probability": 0.008817825126208888,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Samantha Lee (Ind)",
"probability": 0.008817825126208888,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "SDP",
"probability": 0.0035482085169207082,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Greens",
"probability": 0.0035482085169207082,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
"probability": 0.0035482085169207082,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Heritage Party",
"probability": 0.0017776453847247458,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Women's Equality Party",
"probability": 0.0017776453847247458,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "UKIP",
"probability": 0.0017776453847247458,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "North East Party",
"probability": 0.0017776453847247458,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "US Politics - Kamala Harris Specials",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [
{
"name": "Kamala Harris to become President of the United States before the end of 2040",
"probability": 0.6086956521739131,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kamala Harris to become a two-term President of the United States before the end of 2040",
"probability": 0.391304347826087,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{ {
"title": "Boris Johnson Exit Date", "title": "Boris Johnson Exit Date",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
@ -907,119 +1306,6 @@
], ],
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{
"title": "Next London Mayoral Election",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [
{
"name": "Sadiq Khan",
"probability": 0.8736088652213292,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shaun Bailey",
"probability": 0.04326443903953249,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brian Rose",
"probability": 0.04326443903953249,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sian Berry",
"probability": 0.004520165272786977,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Luisa Porritt",
"probability": 0.004520165272786977,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Laurence Fox",
"probability": 0.003619733943546543,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kam Balayev",
"probability": 0.0018134794806989665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "David Kurten",
"probability": 0.0018134794806989665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Count Binface",
"probability": 0.0018134794806989665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Richard Hewison",
"probability": 0.0018134794806989665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Piers Corbyn",
"probability": 0.0018134794806989665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Farah London",
"probability": 0.0018134794806989665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Peter Gammons",
"probability": 0.0018134794806989665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nims Obunge",
"probability": 0.0018134794806989665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Max Fosh",
"probability": 0.0018134794806989665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mandu Reid",
"probability": 0.0018134794806989665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Drillminister",
"probability": 0.0018134794806989665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Valerie Brown",
"probability": 0.0018134794806989665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Niko Omilana",
"probability": 0.0018134794806989665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Steve Kelleher",
"probability": 0.0018134794806989665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Vanessa Hudson",
"probability": 0.0018134794806989665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{ {
"title": "Scottish Election 2021 - Most Seats", "title": "Scottish Election 2021 - Most Seats",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
@ -1058,44 +1344,6 @@
], ],
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{
"title": "Most Seats in General Election",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
"probability": 0.5894327152386443,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.39000059354135863,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Reform UK",
"probability": 0.006134115295766403,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrat",
"probability": 0.006134115295766403,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "UKIP",
"probability": 0.004608215968461327,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Greens",
"probability": 0.0036902446600028953,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{ {
"title": "Next Permanent Scottish First Minister", "title": "Next Permanent Scottish First Minister",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
@ -1378,72 +1626,72 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Andrew Yang", "name": "Andrew Yang",
"probability": 0.4946254386960333, "probability": 0.5392435227058505,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Eric Adams", "name": "Eric Adams",
"probability": 0.12365635967400833, "probability": 0.1258234886313651,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Scott Stringer", "name": "Scott Stringer",
"probability": 0.09892508773920666, "probability": 0.06863099379892643,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Raymond McGuire",
"probability": 0.06744892345855,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Maya Wiley", "name": "Maya Wiley",
"probability": 0.06744892345855, "probability": 0.06863099379892643,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Raymond McGuire",
"probability": 0.047183808236761916,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Kathryn Garcia", "name": "Kathryn Garcia",
"probability": 0.035330388478288094, "probability": 0.03594956818039003,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Shaun Donovan", "name": "Shaun Donovan",
"probability": 0.028536083001694232, "probability": 0.02903618968416118,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Dianne Morales", "name": "Dianne Morales",
"probability": 0.021821710530707354, "probability": 0.02220414505259384,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Carlos Menchaca", "name": "Carlos Menchaca",
"probability": 0.014547807020471568, "probability": 0.014802763368395895,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Loree Sutton", "name": "Loree Sutton",
"probability": 0.014547807020471568, "probability": 0.014802763368395895,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Curtis Sliwa", "name": "Curtis Sliwa",
"probability": 0.011073703851403731, "probability": 0.011267775101316277,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Cleopatra Fitzgerald", "name": "Cleopatra Fitzgerald",
"probability": 0.0073459223568717825, "probability": 0.007474662690972185,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Bill Pepitone", "name": "Bill Pepitone",
"probability": 0.0073459223568717825, "probability": 0.007474662690972185,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Abbey Laurel-Smith", "name": "Abbey Laurel-Smith",
"probability": 0.0073459223568717825, "probability": 0.007474662690972185,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -1456,22 +1704,22 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Labour", "name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.7894110347590826, "probability": 0.8040294964941207,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Conservative", "name": "Conservative",
"probability": 0.16403346176812106, "probability": 0.13915895131629014,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Plaid Cymru", "name": "Plaid Cymru",
"probability": 0.04296114474879361, "probability": 0.05320783432681681,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Liberal Democrat", "name": "Liberal Democrat",
"probability": 0.0035943587240026527, "probability": 0.0036037178627724535,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],

15
src/index.js
View File

@ -89,17 +89,28 @@ let whattodoMessage = "What do you want to do?\n" +
Choose one option, wisely: #`) Choose one option, wisely: #`)
.join("\n") .join("\n")
let tryCatchTryAgain = async (fun) => {
try{
console.log("Initial try")
await fun()
}catch (error) {
console.log("Second try")
console.log(error)
await fun()
}
}
let executeoption = async (option) => { let executeoption = async (option) => {
option = Number(option) option = Number(option)
//console.log(functionNames[option]) //console.log(functionNames[option])
if(option < 0){ if(option < 0){
console.log("Error, ${option} < 0") console.log("Error, ${option} < 0")
}else if(option < functions.length){ }else if(option < functions.length){
functions[option]() await tryCatchTryAgain(functions[option])
} else if(option == functions.length){ } else if(option == functions.length){
for(let fun of functions){ for(let fun of functions){
console.log(fun.name) console.log(fun.name)
await fun() await tryCatchTryAgain(fun)
} }
} }
} }